Incidentally my tangential, 2nd hand knowledge of Prince Andrew goes back to my early 20s, more than three decades back, when I met a friend in a pub (a friend who was waaaay posher than I realised) and he said "oh fucking hell I just went to a dinner party with Prince Andrew last night, what a total fucking idiot"
A PM shredding his reputation by denying something we all know he did, instead of thinking about calling a snap election we have attending a lockdown busting party.
At least Brown's denial was not about a crime.
Erhhhhhh......Smeargate. For starters, Nadine Dorries got paid damages.
The denial TSE referred to was about the 2007 GE that never was.
In another universe where Boris wasn't having loads of "work meetings", he could be getting credit for again fast booster roll out and sticking with Plan B looks like has been the right call and England will be past Omicron before the rest of Europe with minimum deaths.
Boris's problem is that he will not get a lot of credit for the vaccine rollout - no govt would. Protecting Public Health is one of the functions we expect from a govt. If they do it well then they are doing the job they were elected to do and there is no praise in that.
What HY and dithering MPs don’t realise is the credit for vaccine rollout is transferable. It’s disappearing. Forever. With each 25 minutes that now passes people will remember how the whole Conservative party Partied through covid, whilst the people of the country showed the loyalty to each other to fight and beat it.
Henry Zeffman @hzeffman EXCLUSIVE Times/YouGov poll gives Labour their biggest lead since Dec 2013
Lab 38 (+1) Con 28 (-5) LDem 13 (+3) Green 7 (+1) RefUK 4 (-1)
Labour still only on 38%, could have been far worse than that. I was expecting Labour to at least hit 40% after this onslaught and be over 10% ahead and be back to near Blair pre 1997 levels based on all the hype. Instead Starmer merely matching Ed Miliband's lead over Cameron in December 2013.
So movement to the LDs and RefUK still on 4% and clearly some Tories gone DK but those can be reclaimed. However I would expect a VONC still in due course, though on those numbers Boris could still survive it
A PM shredding his reputation by denying something we all know he did, instead of thinking about calling a snap election we have attending a lockdown busting party.
At least Brown's denial was not about a crime.
Erhhhhhh......Smeargate. For starters, Nadine Dorries got paid damages.
The denial TSE referred to was about the 2007 GE that never was.
I know, I was pointing out that Brown denied any knowledge of something that was a crime. Gordons denials over smear-gate were about as believable as Boris thinking this was a works do in the garden.
A PM shredding his reputation by denying something we all know he did, instead of thinking about calling a snap election we have attending a lockdown busting party.
At least Brown's denial was not about a crime.
Erhhhhhh......Smeargate. For starters, Nadine Dorries got paid damages.
The denial TSE referred to was about the 2007 GE that never was.
I know, I was pointing out that Brown denied any knowledge of something that was a crime. Gordons denials over smear-gate were about as believable as Boris thinking this was a works do in the garden.
I wonder what Boris would have to do for HYUFD to lose his support.
Call Indyref2 and call the Queen a thick German housewife.
I am not ruling out Boris having said the second.
It is common knowledge that Boris Johnson thinks Prince Andrew is thick as pigshit after attending a few events with him.
Doesn't every body think that?
I think he was also mystified that Andrew is the Queen's favourite child.
I've never met Prince Andrew, but I know multiple people that have met him, sitting next to him at lunches, dinners etc
The UNIVERSAL impression is of a boring, thick, entitled snob - and quite insufferable company. I have met other royals, and I know people that know other royals, and this is NOT true of Andrew's relatives. They get mixed reviews, often pitying, or curious, or admiring, and never this 100% UGH OMFG
He must be quite exceptionally unpleasant
I'm watching Starz' The White Queen at the moment (quite a good bit of historical drama, based on the Wars of the Roses). The Yorks and Lanacasters would have known *what to do* in this situation. Pretty ruthless
I too know somebody who has dealt with all the major royals, and their preferences are
1) The Duke of Edinburgh, utterly without airs or graces, lovely chap to talk to
2) The Queen, puts people at ease
3) The Wessexes, really nice couple
4) Harry/William - Two young nice chaps
5) Princess Anne a bit arsey but a bit like a Northern battleaxe
6) Prince Charles - Ludicrous requests (sandwiches have to be cut diagonally, has to have a certain brand of toilet paper, nobody must use the dedicated Charles toilet seven days beforehand) but once he arrives he's ok
We are quibbling about 25 mins when the pandemic has lasted 700 days says Jacob Rees Mogg on BBC2
I thought earlier that the 25 minutes was an oddly specific figure - reminiscent of Blair's 45 minutes, except more so. Why not say half an hour? And who remembers how long they spent outside in the garden 20 months ago?
One other thing it reminded me of was when the Chinese revised their Covid deaths up by exactly 50%. The exactitude has the air of being completely made up, and meant to be obviously so.
I wonder what Boris would have to do for HYUFD to lose his support.
Call Indyref2 and call the Queen a thick German housewife.
I am not ruling out Boris having said the second.
It is common knowledge that Boris Johnson thinks Prince Andrew is thick as pigshit after attending a few events with him.
Doesn't every body think that?
I think he was also mystified that Andrew is the Queen's favourite child.
I've never met Prince Andrew, but I know multiple people that have met him, sitting next to him at lunches, dinners etc
The UNIVERSAL impression is of a boring, thick, entitled snob - and quite insufferable company. I have met other royals, and I know people that know other royals, and this is NOT true of Andrew's relatives. They get mixed reviews, often pitying, or curious, or admiring, and never this 100% UGH OMFG
He must be quite exceptionally unpleasant
I'm watching Starz' The White Queen at the moment (quite a good bit of historical drama, based on the Wars of the Roses). The Yorks and Lanacasters would have known *what to do* in this situation. Pretty ruthless
I too know somebody who has dealt with all the major royals, and their preferences are
1) The Duke of Edinburgh, utterly without airs or graces, lovely chap to talk to
2) The Queen, puts people at ease
3) The Wessexes, really nice couple
4) Harry/William - Two young nice chaps
5) Princess Anne a bit arsey but a bit like a Northern battleaxe
6) Prince Charles - Ludicrous requests (sandwiches have to be but diagonally, has to have a certain brand of toilet paper, nobody must you the dedicated Charles toilet seven days beforehand) but once he arrives he's ok
7) Prince Andrew - Utter turd
What's wrong with this? And more than bog roll, kitchen roll, I will not use anything but Regina Blitz....
Chisinau is, at least to the tourist, a modern, civilised, interesting destination. What it is like to live there is, of course, or what it is like in the rest of the country, is a different matter.
Chisinau is, at least to the tourist, a modern, civilised, interesting destination. What it is like to live there is, of course, or what it is like in the rest of the country, is a different matter.
Upon reflection I have mangled this sentence and will retire to bed.
I wonder what Boris would have to do for HYUFD to lose his support.
Call Indyref2 and call the Queen a thick German housewife.
I am not ruling out Boris having said the second.
It is common knowledge that Boris Johnson thinks Prince Andrew is thick as pigshit after attending a few events with him.
Doesn't every body think that?
I think he was also mystified that Andrew is the Queen's favourite child.
I've never met Prince Andrew, but I know multiple people that have met him, sitting next to him at lunches, dinners etc
The UNIVERSAL impression is of a boring, thick, entitled snob - and quite insufferable company. I have met other royals, and I know people that know other royals, and this is NOT true of Andrew's relatives. They get mixed reviews, often pitying, or curious, or admiring, and never this 100% UGH OMFG
He must be quite exceptionally unpleasant
I'm watching Starz' The White Queen at the moment (quite a good bit of historical drama, based on the Wars of the Roses). The Yorks and Lanacasters would have known *what to do* in this situation. Pretty ruthless
I too know somebody who has dealt with all the major royals, and their preferences are
1) The Duke of Edinburgh, utterly without airs or graces, lovely chap to talk to
2) The Queen, puts people at ease
3) The Wessexes, really nice couple
4) Harry/William - Two young nice chaps
5) Princess Anne a bit arsey but a bit like a Northern battleaxe
6) Prince Charles - Ludicrous requests (sandwiches have to be but diagonally, has to have a certain brand of toilet paper, nobody must you the dedicated Charles toilet seven days beforehand) but once he arrives he's ok
7) Prince Andrew - Utter turd
What's wrong with this?
It's a very expensive brand of toilet paper where you have to give 3 months notice to get your order.
If it is that bloody important to you, bring your own toilet paper.
I wonder what Boris would have to do for HYUFD to lose his support.
If 10 to 15 years ago you'd predicted Boris would become PM but then get into alleged trouble over a drinks party at Downing Street, most people would have nodded their heads and said "yeah, sounds about right".
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 39s Jacob Rees Mogg just doubles down on Newsnight. Said of Ross: “Douglas Ross has always been a lightweight figure".
Someone knows they are in the bin if the leader goes. Whoever succeeds him. And not before time too. Couldn't happen to a nicer, or dimmer, bloke.
JRM will be back, could well be a future leader of our party.
JRM is the Tories’ Corbyn Option.
Corbyn gained 30 seats in 2017 and got 40%, higher than Starmer Labour is polling tonight, against May's Tories, even if he collapsed to 32% and lost by a landslide to Boris' Tories in 2019
Incidentally my tangential, 2nd hand knowledge of Prince Andrew goes back to my early 20s, more than three decades back, when I met a friend in a pub (a friend who was waaaay posher than I realised) and he said "oh fucking hell I just went to a dinner party with Prince Andrew last night, what a total fucking idiot"
So this is quite an ongoing theme
Was it a straightforward dinner at Pizza Express, Woking?
I wonder what Boris would have to do for HYUFD to lose his support.
If 10 to 15 years ago you'd predicted Boris would become PM but then get into alleged trouble over a drinks party at Downing Street, most people would have nodded their heads and said "yeah, sounds about right".
The most disappointing element of these parties so far is they seem to be really boring affairs. I expected tales of sex over the photocopier etc not a really sad looking Zoom quiz and a very boring looking garden drinks party.
If one had predicted Boris downfall for hosting a piss up in Downing street you would have put money on its being rampant out of control affair with hookers and blow and Boris caught in the stationary cupboard with a young lady that wasn't his wife.
We are quibbling about 25 mins when the pandemic has lasted 700 days says Jacob Rees Mogg on BBC2
I thought earlier that the 25 minutes was an oddly specific figure - reminiscent of Blair's 45 minutes, except more so. Why not say half an hour? And who remembers how long they spent outside in the garden 20 months ago?
One other thing it reminded me of was when the Chinese revised their Covid deaths up by exactly 50%. The exactitude has the air of being completely made up, and meant to be obviously so.
possible they looked at phone records before allowing johnson to make this statement. he made a phone call at 7pm and then another at 7:30 etc etc
I wonder what Boris would have to do for HYUFD to lose his support.
Call Indyref2 and call the Queen a thick German housewife.
I am not ruling out Boris having said the second.
It is common knowledge that Boris Johnson thinks Prince Andrew is thick as pigshit after attending a few events with him.
Doesn't every body think that?
I think he was also mystified that Andrew is the Queen's favourite child.
I've never met Prince Andrew, but I know multiple people that have met him, sitting next to him at lunches, dinners etc
The UNIVERSAL impression is of a boring, thick, entitled snob - and quite insufferable company. I have met other royals, and I know people that know other royals, and this is NOT true of Andrew's relatives. They get mixed reviews, often pitying, or curious, or admiring, and never this 100% UGH OMFG
He must be quite exceptionally unpleasant
I'm watching Starz' The White Queen at the moment (quite a good bit of historical drama, based on the Wars of the Roses). The Yorks and Lanacasters would have known *what to do* in this situation. Pretty ruthless
I too know somebody who has dealt with all the major royals, and their preferences are
1) The Duke of Edinburgh, utterly without airs or graces, lovely chap to talk to
2) The Queen, puts people at ease
3) The Wessexes, really nice couple
4) Harry/William - Two young nice chaps
5) Princess Anne a bit arsey but a bit like a Northern battleaxe
6) Prince Charles - Ludicrous requests (sandwiches have to be but diagonally, has to have a certain brand of toilet paper, nobody must you the dedicated Charles toilet seven days beforehand) but once he arrives he's ok
7) Prince Andrew - Utter turd
Definitely chimes with what I've heard
We will be fine with William and Kate - I hear good things about her. A bit boring maybe but that's fine, even welcome. The Queen was boring and Margaret was "not boring". Et voila. It is always difficult being the second spare royal child but at least Margaret had some sass, taste and wit, Andrew seems devoid of anything but libido and entitlement. A boor
Kate is tediously impeccable in her behaviour and gracious in manner. She will gain wisdom, as will he
They just need to find a way to hide Andrew in a cyber-dungeon for the rest of recorded time. Deputy Governor of the South Shetland Isles (south); something like that
Henry Zeffman @hzeffman EXCLUSIVE Times/YouGov poll gives Labour their biggest lead since Dec 2013
Lab 38 (+1) Con 28 (-5) LDem 13 (+3) Green 7 (+1) RefUK 4 (-1)
I hear the bell tolling for Boris
Lab 327 seats Con 220 Lib 19 SNP 59 Green 1
Yes that is a Labour Majority.
I did say a while ago a Labour majority was possible and was laughed at for it.
That's only possible on current seats, not the new boundaries
on the new boundaries it's Lab 313 and Tories 234.
So after all that Sir Keir STILL cannot even get a majority on the new boundaries even after the avalanche of attacks Boris has faced this week
You are being very naive.
If the Conservatives tumble to 28% all sorts of permutations will be thrown up. There will not be a uniform swing. The LDs will be doing significantly better in terms of seats because in Southern England the Conservatives will get absolutely tonked! LDs in the North will also be voting Labour to rid themselves of Blue Meanies
I wonder what Boris would have to do for HYUFD to lose his support.
Call Indyref2 and call the Queen a thick German housewife.
I am not ruling out Boris having said the second.
It is common knowledge that Boris Johnson thinks Prince Andrew is thick as pigshit after attending a few events with him.
Doesn't every body think that?
I think he was also mystified that Andrew is the Queen's favourite child.
I've never met Prince Andrew, but I know multiple people that have met him, sitting next to him at lunches, dinners etc
The UNIVERSAL impression is of a boring, thick, entitled snob - and quite insufferable company. I have met other royals, and I know people that know other royals, and this is NOT true of Andrew's relatives. They get mixed reviews, often pitying, or curious, or admiring, and never this 100% UGH OMFG
He must be quite exceptionally unpleasant
I'm watching Starz' The White Queen at the moment (quite a good bit of historical drama, based on the Wars of the Roses). The Yorks and Lanacasters would have known *what to do* in this situation. Pretty ruthless
I too know somebody who has dealt with all the major royals, and their preferences are
1) The Duke of Edinburgh, utterly without airs or graces, lovely chap to talk to
2) The Queen, puts people at ease
3) The Wessexes, really nice couple
4) Harry/William - Two young nice chaps
5) Princess Anne a bit arsey but a bit like a Northern battleaxe
6) Prince Charles - Ludicrous requests (sandwiches have to be cut diagonally, has to have a certain brand of toilet paper, nobody must use the dedicated Charles toilet seven days beforehand) but once he arrives he's ok
7) Prince Andrew - Utter turd
I got a similar impression from watching The Crown.
Wes Streeting MP @wesstreeting . @KirstyWark described Sue Gray as ‘independent’ on @BBCNewsnight . This is incorrect. She is a civil servant who reports to her superiors. She is in an impossible position, with an impossible task, but it is inaccurate to describe her as independent.
I wonder what Boris would have to do for HYUFD to lose his support.
If 10 to 15 years ago you'd predicted Boris would become PM but then get into alleged trouble over a drinks party at Downing Street, most people would have nodded their heads and said "yeah, sounds about right".
The most disappointing element of these parties so far is they seem to be really boring affairs. I expected tales of sex over the photocopier etc not a really sad looking Zoom quiz and a very boring looking garden drinks party.
If one had predicted Boris downfall for hosting a piss up in Downing street you would have put money on its being rampant out of control affair with hookers and blow and Boris caught in the stationary cupboard with a young lady that wasn't his wife.
You don't fully know what "thanked the staff" consisted of tbf.
I wonder what Boris would have to do for HYUFD to lose his support.
Call Indyref2 and call the Queen a thick German housewife.
I am not ruling out Boris having said the second.
It is common knowledge that Boris Johnson thinks Prince Andrew is thick as pigshit after attending a few events with him.
Doesn't every body think that?
I think he was also mystified that Andrew is the Queen's favourite child.
I've never met Prince Andrew, but I know multiple people that have met him, sitting next to him at lunches, dinners etc
The UNIVERSAL impression is of a boring, thick, entitled snob - and quite insufferable company. I have met other royals, and I know people that know other royals, and this is NOT true of Andrew's relatives. They get mixed reviews, often pitying, or curious, or admiring, and never this 100% UGH OMFG
He must be quite exceptionally unpleasant
I'm watching Starz' The White Queen at the moment (quite a good bit of historical drama, based on the Wars of the Roses). The Yorks and Lanacasters would have known *what to do* in this situation. Pretty ruthless
I too know somebody who has dealt with all the major royals, and their preferences are
1) The Duke of Edinburgh, utterly without airs or graces, lovely chap to talk to
2) The Queen, puts people at ease
3) The Wessexes, really nice couple
4) Harry/William - Two young nice chaps
5) Princess Anne a bit arsey but a bit like a Northern battleaxe
6) Prince Charles - Ludicrous requests (sandwiches have to be cut diagonally, has to have a certain brand of toilet paper, nobody must use the dedicated Charles toilet seven days beforehand) but once he arrives he's ok
7) Prince Andrew - Utter turd
I got a similar impression from watching The Crown.
From everything I have heard, the Crown is deadly accurate, right down to the costumes worn on a particular evening, and the actual sentences spoken
That's what you get when you can spend eight billion quid per episode
PS one of my best friends is a scriptwriter on the series! So I do have an insight....
They just need to find a way to hide Andrew in a cyber-dungeon for the rest of recorded time. Deputy Governor of the South Shetland Isles (south); something like that
In another universe where Boris wasn't having loads of "work meetings", he could be getting credit for again fast booster roll out and sticking with Plan B looks like has been the right call and England will be past Omicron before the rest of Europe with minimum deaths.
This is the amusingly ironic thing.
Boris made some clear mistakes during covid but is being brought down by another person's idiocy.
Meanwhile:
Warwick model English hospitalisation prediction 12,832 Actual English hospitalisations 2,180
Henry Zeffman @hzeffman EXCLUSIVE Times/YouGov poll gives Labour their biggest lead since Dec 2013
Lab 38 (+1) Con 28 (-5) LDem 13 (+3) Green 7 (+1) RefUK 4 (-1)
I hear the bell tolling for Boris
Lab 327 seats Con 220 Lib 19 SNP 59 Green 1
Yes that is a Labour Majority.
I did say a while ago a Labour majority was possible and was laughed at for it.
That's only possible on current seats, not the new boundaries
on the new boundaries it's Lab 313 and Tories 234.
So after all that Sir Keir STILL cannot even get a majority on the new boundaries even after the avalanche of attacks Boris has faced this week
That really says it all: the new boundaries are utterly crackers. Jeremy Mander would be proud.
Scotland. Without 50 or so Scottish seats, Labour need a huge win in England + Wales to get over the line. Not quite Blair '97, but heading that way. And Johnson hasn't plumbed Major's depths.
Yet.
Labour would probably need to win some seats they've never won before like Macclesfield, Colchester, Basingstoke, Rochford and Southend E, Bournemouth E/W, Worthing E etc to get a majority.
Merely getting 300 seats would be a massive result.
If they did that well in England (relative to the Tories) they'd probably win 5-10 seats in Scotland as well.
Henry Zeffman @hzeffman EXCLUSIVE Times/YouGov poll gives Labour their biggest lead since Dec 2013
Lab 38 (+1) Con 28 (-5) LDem 13 (+3) Green 7 (+1) RefUK 4 (-1)
I hear the bell tolling for Boris
Lab 327 seats Con 220 Lib 19 SNP 59 Green 1
Yes that is a Labour Majority.
I did say a while ago a Labour majority was possible and was laughed at for it.
That's only possible on current seats, not the new boundaries
on the new boundaries it's Lab 313 and Tories 234.
So after all that Sir Keir STILL cannot even get a majority on the new boundaries even after the avalanche of attacks Boris has faced this week
You are being very naive.
If the Conservatives tumble to 28% all sorts of permutations will be thrown up. There will not be a uniform swing. The LDs will be doing significantly better in terms of seats because in Southern England the Conservatives will get absolutely tonked! LDs in the North will also be voting Labour to rid themselves of Blue Meanies
Yes. I was pointing out the disconnect about the 1997 election yesterday. Labour seriously under performed their polling, while the Tories hit theirs. Yet everybody was astonished by the result. 179 majority was way beyond expectations. That was tactical voting that was. Kick the Tories was out was the theme. Folk didn't really care who beat them.
I wonder what Boris would have to do for HYUFD to lose his support.
Call Indyref2 and call the Queen a thick German housewife.
I am not ruling out Boris having said the second.
It is common knowledge that Boris Johnson thinks Prince Andrew is thick as pigshit after attending a few events with him.
Doesn't every body think that?
I think he was also mystified that Andrew is the Queen's favourite child.
I've never met Prince Andrew, but I know multiple people that have met him, sitting next to him at lunches, dinners etc
The UNIVERSAL impression is of a boring, thick, entitled snob - and quite insufferable company. I have met other royals, and I know people that know other royals, and this is NOT true of Andrew's relatives. They get mixed reviews, often pitying, or curious, or admiring, and never this 100% UGH OMFG
He must be quite exceptionally unpleasant
I'm watching Starz' The White Queen at the moment (quite a good bit of historical drama, based on the Wars of the Roses). The Yorks and Lanacasters would have known *what to do* in this situation. Pretty ruthless
I too know somebody who has dealt with all the major royals, and their preferences are
1) The Duke of Edinburgh, utterly without airs or graces, lovely chap to talk to
2) The Queen, puts people at ease
3) The Wessexes, really nice couple
4) Harry/William - Two young nice chaps
5) Princess Anne a bit arsey but a bit like a Northern battleaxe
6) Prince Charles - Ludicrous requests (sandwiches have to be cut diagonally, has to have a certain brand of toilet paper, nobody must use the dedicated Charles toilet seven days beforehand) but once he arrives he's ok
7) Prince Andrew - Utter turd
I got a similar impression from watching The Crown.
From everything I have heard, the Crown is deadly accurate, right down to the costumes worn on a particular evening, and the actual sentences spoken
That's what you get when you can spend eight billion quid per episode
PS one of my best friends is a scriptwriter on the series! So I do have an insight....
They duffed up the last series with the suggestion Thatcher asked HM to call a GE to save her bacon during the leadership contest, which AFAIK is a complete fiction and doesn’t ring true to the person. But the first three seemed fair enough. Even the bits that were supposition were fairly credible IMHO.
Wes Streeting MP @wesstreeting . @KirstyWark described Sue Gray as ‘independent’ on @BBCNewsnight . This is incorrect. She is a civil servant who reports to her superiors. She is in an impossible position, with an impossible task, but it is inaccurate to describe her as independent.
That doesn’t sound right to me. Who is this mouthy man?
I wonder what Boris would have to do for HYUFD to lose his support.
Call Indyref2 and call the Queen a thick German housewife.
I am not ruling out Boris having said the second.
It is common knowledge that Boris Johnson thinks Prince Andrew is thick as pigshit after attending a few events with him.
Doesn't every body think that?
I think he was also mystified that Andrew is the Queen's favourite child.
I've never met Prince Andrew, but I know multiple people that have met him, sitting next to him at lunches, dinners etc
The UNIVERSAL impression is of a boring, thick, entitled snob - and quite insufferable company. I have met other royals, and I know people that know other royals, and this is NOT true of Andrew's relatives. They get mixed reviews, often pitying, or curious, or admiring, and never this 100% UGH OMFG
He must be quite exceptionally unpleasant
I'm watching Starz' The White Queen at the moment (quite a good bit of historical drama, based on the Wars of the Roses). The Yorks and Lanacasters would have known *what to do* in this situation. Pretty ruthless
I too know somebody who has dealt with all the major royals, and their preferences are
1) The Duke of Edinburgh, utterly without airs or graces, lovely chap to talk to
2) The Queen, puts people at ease
3) The Wessexes, really nice couple
4) Harry/William - Two young nice chaps
5) Princess Anne a bit arsey but a bit like a Northern battleaxe
6) Prince Charles - Ludicrous requests (sandwiches have to be cut diagonally, has to have a certain brand of toilet paper, nobody must use the dedicated Charles toilet seven days beforehand) but once he arrives he's ok
7) Prince Andrew - Utter turd
My brother had to entertain Andrew at a company do. Thick, arrogant and rude was his verdict.
It really does call into question the Queen's judgement to be her favorite. Or maybe it's just because no one else likes him.
Henry Zeffman @hzeffman EXCLUSIVE Times/YouGov poll gives Labour their biggest lead since Dec 2013
Lab 38 (+1) Con 28 (-5) LDem 13 (+3) Green 7 (+1) RefUK 4 (-1)
I hear the bell tolling for Boris
Lab 327 seats Con 220 Lib 19 SNP 59 Green 1
Yes that is a Labour Majority.
I did say a while ago a Labour majority was possible and was laughed at for it.
That's only possible on current seats, not the new boundaries
on the new boundaries it's Lab 313 and Tories 234.
So after all that Sir Keir STILL cannot even get a majority on the new boundaries even after the avalanche of attacks Boris has faced this week
You are being very naive.
If the Conservatives tumble to 28% all sorts of permutations will be thrown up. There will not be a uniform swing. The LDs will be doing significantly better in terms of seats because in Southern England the Conservatives will get absolutely tonked! LDs in the North will also be voting Labour to rid themselves of Blue Meanies
Yes. I was pointing out the disconnect about the 1997 election yesterday. Labour seriously under performed their polling, while the Tories hit theirs. Yet everybody was astonished by the result. 179 majority was way beyond expectations. That was tactical voting that was. Kick the Tories was out was the theme. Folk didn't really care who beat them.
Blair Labour was still polling well over 40% though pre 1997 and got well over 40%, Starmer Labour still is yet to hit 40%
The consensus on the various news channels seems to be that Johnson will be the human shield for the Tories' anticipated poor local election results in May, and therefore won't be forced out before then.
I wonder what Boris would have to do for HYUFD to lose his support.
Call Indyref2 and call the Queen a thick German housewife.
I am not ruling out Boris having said the second.
It is common knowledge that Boris Johnson thinks Prince Andrew is thick as pigshit after attending a few events with him.
Doesn't every body think that?
I think he was also mystified that Andrew is the Queen's favourite child.
I've never met Prince Andrew, but I know multiple people that have met him, sitting next to him at lunches, dinners etc
The UNIVERSAL impression is of a boring, thick, entitled snob - and quite insufferable company. I have met other royals, and I know people that know other royals, and this is NOT true of Andrew's relatives. They get mixed reviews, often pitying, or curious, or admiring, and never this 100% UGH OMFG
He must be quite exceptionally unpleasant
I'm watching Starz' The White Queen at the moment (quite a good bit of historical drama, based on the Wars of the Roses). The Yorks and Lanacasters would have known *what to do* in this situation. Pretty ruthless
I too know somebody who has dealt with all the major royals, and their preferences are
1) The Duke of Edinburgh, utterly without airs or graces, lovely chap to talk to
2) The Queen, puts people at ease
3) The Wessexes, really nice couple
4) Harry/William - Two young nice chaps
5) Princess Anne a bit arsey but a bit like a Northern battleaxe
6) Prince Charles - Ludicrous requests (sandwiches have to be cut diagonally, has to have a certain brand of toilet paper, nobody must use the dedicated Charles toilet seven days beforehand) but once he arrives he's ok
7) Prince Andrew - Utter turd
I got a similar impression from watching The Crown.
From everything I have heard, the Crown is deadly accurate, right down to the costumes worn on a particular evening, and the actual sentences spoken
That's what you get when you can spend eight billion quid per episode
PS one of my best friends is a scriptwriter on the series! So I do have an insight....
The most recent series was riddled with downright lies about Thatcher - Morgan's loathing of her showed through. I think the earlier series - where he had to do research, stand up better.
The consensus on the various news channels seems to be that Johnson will be the human shield for the Tories' anticipated poor local election results in May, and therefore won't be forced out before then.
Time to recover for Boris by then, restrictions will have ended so he can win back voters who have gone RefUK or DK since Plan B (RefUK still on 4% tonight for example). Plus if the Tories hold a few token councils like Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea he can point to that as most of England does not vote in May although all of London does
I wonder what Boris would have to do for HYUFD to lose his support.
Call Indyref2 and call the Queen a thick German housewife.
I am not ruling out Boris having said the second.
It is common knowledge that Boris Johnson thinks Prince Andrew is thick as pigshit after attending a few events with him.
Doesn't every body think that?
I think he was also mystified that Andrew is the Queen's favourite child.
I've never met Prince Andrew, but I know multiple people that have met him, sitting next to him at lunches, dinners etc
The UNIVERSAL impression is of a boring, thick, entitled snob - and quite insufferable company. I have met other royals, and I know people that know other royals, and this is NOT true of Andrew's relatives. They get mixed reviews, often pitying, or curious, or admiring, and never this 100% UGH OMFG
He must be quite exceptionally unpleasant
I'm watching Starz' The White Queen at the moment (quite a good bit of historical drama, based on the Wars of the Roses). The Yorks and Lanacasters would have known *what to do* in this situation. Pretty ruthless
I too know somebody who has dealt with all the major royals, and their preferences are
1) The Duke of Edinburgh, utterly without airs or graces, lovely chap to talk to
2) The Queen, puts people at ease
3) The Wessexes, really nice couple
4) Harry/William - Two young nice chaps
5) Princess Anne a bit arsey but a bit like a Northern battleaxe
6) Prince Charles - Ludicrous requests (sandwiches have to be cut diagonally, has to have a certain brand of toilet paper, nobody must use the dedicated Charles toilet seven days beforehand) but once he arrives he's ok
7) Prince Andrew - Utter turd
I got a similar impression from watching The Crown.
From everything I have heard, the Crown is deadly accurate, right down to the costumes worn on a particular evening, and the actual sentences spoken
That's what you get when you can spend eight billion quid per episode
PS one of my best friends is a scriptwriter on the series! So I do have an insight....
The most recent series was riddled with downright lies about Thatcher - Morgan's loathing of her showed through. I think the earlier series - where he had to do research, stand up better.
Yes, that's fair. As it gets nearer to now, bias begins to show
It is still remarkable for its dedicated verisimilitude. Few shows compare
I wonder what Boris would have to do for HYUFD to lose his support.
Call Indyref2 and call the Queen a thick German housewife.
I am not ruling out Boris having said the second.
It is common knowledge that Boris Johnson thinks Prince Andrew is thick as pigshit after attending a few events with him.
Doesn't every body think that?
I think he was also mystified that Andrew is the Queen's favourite child.
I've never met Prince Andrew, but I know multiple people that have met him, sitting next to him at lunches, dinners etc
The UNIVERSAL impression is of a boring, thick, entitled snob - and quite insufferable company. I have met other royals, and I know people that know other royals, and this is NOT true of Andrew's relatives. They get mixed reviews, often pitying, or curious, or admiring, and never this 100% UGH OMFG
He must be quite exceptionally unpleasant
I'm watching Starz' The White Queen at the moment (quite a good bit of historical drama, based on the Wars of the Roses). The Yorks and Lanacasters would have known *what to do* in this situation. Pretty ruthless
I too know somebody who has dealt with all the major royals, and their preferences are
1) The Duke of Edinburgh, utterly without airs or graces, lovely chap to talk to
2) The Queen, puts people at ease
3) The Wessexes, really nice couple
4) Harry/William - Two young nice chaps
5) Princess Anne a bit arsey but a bit like a Northern battleaxe
6) Prince Charles - Ludicrous requests (sandwiches have to be cut diagonally, has to have a certain brand of toilet paper, nobody must use the dedicated Charles toilet seven days beforehand) but once he arrives he's ok
7) Prince Andrew - Utter turd
I got a similar impression from watching The Crown.
From everything I have heard, the Crown is deadly accurate, right down to the costumes worn on a particular evening, and the actual sentences spoken
That's what you get when you can spend eight billion quid per episode
PS one of my best friends is a scriptwriter on the series! So I do have an insight....
Nonsense; clearly your source is biased. It is awash with inaccuracies - a particularly egregious one is that Mrs T tried to get the Queen to intervene to dissolve Parliament in order to keep her in office, which was just made up. The fourth season, closest to living memory for most of us, was full of errors.
The consensus on the various news channels seems to be that Johnson will be the human shield for the Tories' anticipated poor local election results in May, and therefore won't be forced out before then.
Looking at the May locals, there are plenty of urban Boroughs up in the Red Wall. Add Scotland and Northern Ireland and it could be quite an interesting night.
In another universe where Boris wasn't having loads of "work meetings", he could be getting credit for again fast booster roll out and sticking with Plan B looks like has been the right call and England will be past Omicron before the rest of Europe with minimum deaths.
This is the amusingly ironic thing.
Boris made some clear mistakes during covid but is being brought down by another person's idiocy.
Meanwhile:
Warwick model English hospitalisation prediction 12,832 Actual English hospitalisations 2,180
Never heard of the US lawyer. Clare Montgomery QC is good but I doubt she has been involved in the recent work. The rest are gruesome and unknown. They should be sacked and decisions made about the case made by anyone other than Andrew who appears to have no brain cells at all.
I wonder what Boris would have to do for HYUFD to lose his support.
Call Indyref2 and call the Queen a thick German housewife.
I am not ruling out Boris having said the second.
It is common knowledge that Boris Johnson thinks Prince Andrew is thick as pigshit after attending a few events with him.
Doesn't every body think that?
I think he was also mystified that Andrew is the Queen's favourite child.
I've never met Prince Andrew, but I know multiple people that have met him, sitting next to him at lunches, dinners etc
The UNIVERSAL impression is of a boring, thick, entitled snob - and quite insufferable company. I have met other royals, and I know people that know other royals, and this is NOT true of Andrew's relatives. They get mixed reviews, often pitying, or curious, or admiring, and never this 100% UGH OMFG
He must be quite exceptionally unpleasant
I'm watching Starz' The White Queen at the moment (quite a good bit of historical drama, based on the Wars of the Roses). The Yorks and Lanacasters would have known *what to do* in this situation. Pretty ruthless
I too know somebody who has dealt with all the major royals, and their preferences are
1) The Duke of Edinburgh, utterly without airs or graces, lovely chap to talk to
2) The Queen, puts people at ease
3) The Wessexes, really nice couple
4) Harry/William - Two young nice chaps
5) Princess Anne a bit arsey but a bit like a Northern battleaxe
6) Prince Charles - Ludicrous requests (sandwiches have to be cut diagonally, has to have a certain brand of toilet paper, nobody must use the dedicated Charles toilet seven days beforehand) but once he arrives he's ok
7) Prince Andrew - Utter turd
I got a similar impression from watching The Crown.
From everything I have heard, the Crown is deadly accurate, right down to the costumes worn on a particular evening, and the actual sentences spoken
That's what you get when you can spend eight billion quid per episode
PS one of my best friends is a scriptwriter on the series! So I do have an insight....
The most recent series was riddled with downright lies about Thatcher - Morgan's loathing of her showed through. I think the earlier series - where he had to do research, stand up better.
I felt less like Thatcher was cast as a “baddie” per se (the bits where the RF acted all snooty towards her at Balmoral actually evoked rather sympathetic feelings) but more that they just got the characterisation all wrong. They also skimmed over too much of the fascinating politics of that era (eg miners strike, poll tax) in favour of Charles and Diana melodrama. Which I get, because it’s tabloid heaven. But the Thatcher era probably deserved 2 series to do justice to the whole piece.
I wonder what Boris would have to do for HYUFD to lose his support.
Call Indyref2 and call the Queen a thick German housewife.
I am not ruling out Boris having said the second.
It is common knowledge that Boris Johnson thinks Prince Andrew is thick as pigshit after attending a few events with him.
Doesn't every body think that?
I think he was also mystified that Andrew is the Queen's favourite child.
I've never met Prince Andrew, but I know multiple people that have met him, sitting next to him at lunches, dinners etc
The UNIVERSAL impression is of a boring, thick, entitled snob - and quite insufferable company. I have met other royals, and I know people that know other royals, and this is NOT true of Andrew's relatives. They get mixed reviews, often pitying, or curious, or admiring, and never this 100% UGH OMFG
He must be quite exceptionally unpleasant
I'm watching Starz' The White Queen at the moment (quite a good bit of historical drama, based on the Wars of the Roses). The Yorks and Lanacasters would have known *what to do* in this situation. Pretty ruthless
I too know somebody who has dealt with all the major royals, and their preferences are
1) The Duke of Edinburgh, utterly without airs or graces, lovely chap to talk to
2) The Queen, puts people at ease
3) The Wessexes, really nice couple
4) Harry/William - Two young nice chaps
5) Princess Anne a bit arsey but a bit like a Northern battleaxe
6) Prince Charles - Ludicrous requests (sandwiches have to be cut diagonally, has to have a certain brand of toilet paper, nobody must use the dedicated Charles toilet seven days beforehand) but once he arrives he's ok
7) Prince Andrew - Utter turd
My brother had to entertain Andrew at a company do. Thick, arrogant and rude was his verdict.
It really does call into question the Queen's judgement to be her favorite. Or maybe it's just because no one else likes him.
You're a doctor! You should know the crooked timber of humankind. Mothers and fathers don't choose "favourites" for a logical "reason". It is a weird alchemy, but a real thing - and very corrosive, even destructive at its worst
The best thing a parent can do is NOT have a favourite, is a pretty good rule of thumb
Henry Zeffman @hzeffman EXCLUSIVE Times/YouGov poll gives Labour their biggest lead since Dec 2013
Lab 38 (+1) Con 28 (-5) LDem 13 (+3) Green 7 (+1) RefUK 4 (-1)
I hear the bell tolling for Boris
Lab 327 seats Con 220 Lib 19 SNP 59 Green 1
Yes that is a Labour Majority.
I did say a while ago a Labour majority was possible and was laughed at for it.
That's only possible on current seats, not the new boundaries
on the new boundaries it's Lab 313 and Tories 234.
So after all that Sir Keir STILL cannot even get a majority on the new boundaries even after the avalanche of attacks Boris has faced this week
You are being very naive.
If the Conservatives tumble to 28% all sorts of permutations will be thrown up. There will not be a uniform swing. The LDs will be doing significantly better in terms of seats because in Southern England the Conservatives will get absolutely tonked! LDs in the North will also be voting Labour to rid themselves of Blue Meanies
Yes. I was pointing out the disconnect about the 1997 election yesterday. Labour seriously under performed their polling, while the Tories hit theirs. Yet everybody was astonished by the result. 179 majority was way beyond expectations. That was tactical voting that was. Kick the Tories was out was the theme. Folk didn't really care who beat them.
Blair Labour was still polling well over 40% though pre 1997 and got well over 40%, Starmer Labour still is yet to hit 40%
Depends what happens to the Tory vote TBH, I can't see Labour getting more than 38% in a real GE but they could still both lose a lot of seats to Labour in the North and the Lib dems in the South.
In another universe where Boris wasn't having loads of "work meetings", he could be getting credit for again fast booster roll out and sticking with Plan B looks like has been the right call and England will be past Omicron before the rest of Europe with minimum deaths.
This is the amusingly ironic thing.
Boris made some clear mistakes during covid but is being brought down by another person's idiocy.
Meanwhile:
Warwick model English hospitalisation prediction 12,832 Actual English hospitalisations 2,180
The consensus on the various news channels seems to be that Johnson will be the human shield for the Tories' anticipated poor local election results in May, and therefore won't be forced out before then.
Looking at the May locals, there are plenty of urban Boroughs up in the Red Wall. Add Scotland and Northern Ireland and it could be quite an interesting night.
The Tories only hold 1 Metropolitan borough outside London up in May, Solihull which is hardly redwall.
The few Redwall district council areas up in May like Burnley and Lincoln which elected Tory MPs in 2019 all still have Labour controlled councils or at least Labour as largest party.
There are 0 Tory controlled councils in Wales or Scotland
It really does call into question the Queen's judgement to be her favorite. Or maybe it's just because no one else likes him.
Oh, well, it's easy to come up with an explanation with a bit of imagination. She had to have Charles and Anne - they were the heir and spare - but she then chose to have Andrew and Edward much later. Reckon that means she could have formed a very different sort of bond with Andrew before he was even born. Then it doesn't really matter what he does, or how he behaves, because his importance to the Queen is bound up in what he represents to her.
But then, I only have one child, so I really am talking outside of my area of knowledge.
I wonder what Boris would have to do for HYUFD to lose his support.
Call Indyref2 and call the Queen a thick German housewife.
I am not ruling out Boris having said the second.
It is common knowledge that Boris Johnson thinks Prince Andrew is thick as pigshit after attending a few events with him.
Doesn't every body think that?
I think he was also mystified that Andrew is the Queen's favourite child.
I've never met Prince Andrew, but I know multiple people that have met him, sitting next to him at lunches, dinners etc
The UNIVERSAL impression is of a boring, thick, entitled snob - and quite insufferable company. I have met other royals, and I know people that know other royals, and this is NOT true of Andrew's relatives. They get mixed reviews, often pitying, or curious, or admiring, and never this 100% UGH OMFG
He must be quite exceptionally unpleasant
I'm watching Starz' The White Queen at the moment (quite a good bit of historical drama, based on the Wars of the Roses). The Yorks and Lanacasters would have known *what to do* in this situation. Pretty ruthless
I too know somebody who has dealt with all the major royals, and their preferences are
1) The Duke of Edinburgh, utterly without airs or graces, lovely chap to talk to
2) The Queen, puts people at ease
3) The Wessexes, really nice couple
4) Harry/William - Two young nice chaps
5) Princess Anne a bit arsey but a bit like a Northern battleaxe
6) Prince Charles - Ludicrous requests (sandwiches have to be cut diagonally, has to have a certain brand of toilet paper, nobody must use the dedicated Charles toilet seven days beforehand) but once he arrives he's ok
7) Prince Andrew - Utter turd
I got a similar impression from watching The Crown.
From everything I have heard, the Crown is deadly accurate, right down to the costumes worn on a particular evening, and the actual sentences spoken
That's what you get when you can spend eight billion quid per episode
PS one of my best friends is a scriptwriter on the series! So I do have an insight....
The most recent series was riddled with downright lies about Thatcher - Morgan's loathing of her showed through. I think the earlier series - where he had to do research, stand up better.
Yes, that's fair. As it gets nearer to now, bias begins to show
It is still remarkable for its dedicated verisimilitude. Few shows compare
Morgan was in my year at Leeds Uni in early 1980s. He did History of Art. I suspect that is all you need to know as to explaining why the later episodes hammer Thatcher.
The consensus on the various news channels seems to be that Johnson will be the human shield for the Tories' anticipated poor local election results in May, and therefore won't be forced out before then.
Looking at the May locals, there are plenty of urban Boroughs up in the Red Wall. Add Scotland and Northern Ireland and it could be quite an interesting night.
The Tories only hold 1 Metropolitan borough outside London up in May, Solihull which is hardly redwall.
The few Redwall district council areas up in May like Burnley and Lincoln which elected Tory MPs in 2019 all still have Labour controlled councils or at least Labour as largest party.
There are 0 Tory controlled councils in Wales or Scotland
Correction, there is 1 Tory controlled council in Wales, Monmouthshire, which had a Tory MP well before 2019 and 0 in Scotland
The consensus on the various news channels seems to be that Johnson will be the human shield for the Tories' anticipated poor local election results in May, and therefore won't be forced out before then.
Time to recover for Boris by then, restrictions will have ended so he can win back voters who have gone RefUK or DK since Plan B (RefUK still on 4% tonight for example). Plus if the Tories hold a few token councils like Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea he can point to that as most of England does not vote in May although all of London does
The longer he remains in office the more he damages your party (which suits me). If Johnson wasn't only all about Johnson he would already have fallen on his sword.
If Johnson goes, the next leader assuming it is someone half sensible gets an immediate 5 point poll lead. Then normal politics resumes and it is nip and tuck to the next GE, with hung Parliament or small Tory majority as decent shouts.
If your boy survives he takes the party and the country down with him. If he were to win that GE he will have promised something very regretful so to do.
Henry Zeffman @hzeffman EXCLUSIVE Times/YouGov poll gives Labour their biggest lead since Dec 2013
Lab 38 (+1) Con 28 (-5) LDem 13 (+3) Green 7 (+1) RefUK 4 (-1)
I hear the bell tolling for Boris
Lab 327 seats Con 220 Lib 19 SNP 59 Green 1
Yes that is a Labour Majority.
I did say a while ago a Labour majority was possible and was laughed at for it.
That's only possible on current seats, not the new boundaries
on the new boundaries it's Lab 313 and Tories 234.
So after all that Sir Keir STILL cannot even get a majority on the new boundaries even after the avalanche of attacks Boris has faced this week
You are being very naive.
If the Conservatives tumble to 28% all sorts of permutations will be thrown up. There will not be a uniform swing. The LDs will be doing significantly better in terms of seats because in Southern England the Conservatives will get absolutely tonked! LDs in the North will also be voting Labour to rid themselves of Blue Meanies
Yes. I was pointing out the disconnect about the 1997 election yesterday. Labour seriously under performed their polling, while the Tories hit theirs. Yet everybody was astonished by the result. 179 majority was way beyond expectations. That was tactical voting that was. Kick the Tories was out was the theme. Folk didn't really care who beat them.
Blair Labour was still polling well over 40% though pre 1997 and got well over 40%, Starmer Labour still is yet to hit 40%
Nonetheless, here's that 10-point lead which you predicted would lead to Johnson's removal?
It really does call into question the Queen's judgement to be her favorite. Or maybe it's just because no one else likes him.
Oh, well, it's easy to come up with an explanation with a bit of imagination. She had to have Charles and Anne - they were the heir and spare - but she then chose to have Andrew and Edward much later. Reckon that means she could have formed a very different sort of bond with Andrew before he was even born. Then it doesn't really matter what he does, or how he behaves, because his importance to the Queen is bound up in what he represents to her.
But then, I only have one child, so I really am talking outside of my area of knowledge.
A monarch must also always have somewhat conflicted feelings in respect of their first child. They represent the continuation of the office you hold, they’re basically the next in line for your job. Their successes are your failures. Their failures make you fear that your office (your life’s purpose) may not continue and will lose meaning when you are gone.
The consensus on the various news channels seems to be that Johnson will be the human shield for the Tories' anticipated poor local election results in May, and therefore won't be forced out before then.
Looking at the May locals, there are plenty of urban Boroughs up in the Red Wall. Add Scotland and Northern Ireland and it could be quite an interesting night.
The Tories only hold 1 Metropolitan borough outside London up in May, Solihull which is hardly redwall.
The few Redwall district council areas up in May like Burnley and Lincoln which elected Tory MPs in 2019 all still have Labour controlled councils or at least Labour as largest party.
There are 0 Tory controlled councils in Wales or Scotland
Correction, there is 1 Tory controlled council in Wales, Monmouthshire, which had a Tory MP well before 2019 and 0 in Scotland
Henry Zeffman @hzeffman EXCLUSIVE Times/YouGov poll gives Labour their biggest lead since Dec 2013
Lab 38 (+1) Con 28 (-5) LDem 13 (+3) Green 7 (+1) RefUK 4 (-1)
I hear the bell tolling for Boris
Lab 327 seats Con 220 Lib 19 SNP 59 Green 1
Yes that is a Labour Majority.
I did say a while ago a Labour majority was possible and was laughed at for it.
That's only possible on current seats, not the new boundaries
on the new boundaries it's Lab 313 and Tories 234.
So after all that Sir Keir STILL cannot even get a majority on the new boundaries even after the avalanche of attacks Boris has faced this week
You are being very naive.
If the Conservatives tumble to 28% all sorts of permutations will be thrown up. There will not be a uniform swing. The LDs will be doing significantly better in terms of seats because in Southern England the Conservatives will get absolutely tonked! LDs in the North will also be voting Labour to rid themselves of Blue Meanies
Yes. I was pointing out the disconnect about the 1997 election yesterday. Labour seriously under performed their polling, while the Tories hit theirs. Yet everybody was astonished by the result. 179 majority was way beyond expectations. That was tactical voting that was. Kick the Tories was out was the theme. Folk didn't really care who beat them.
Blair Labour was still polling well over 40% though pre 1997 and got well over 40%, Starmer Labour still is yet to hit 40%
Nonetheless, here's that 10-point lead which you predicted would lead to Johnson's removal?
Over 10 point lead I said consistently could lead to his removal, one 10 point lead and Labour still under 40% and I think Boris could still scrape home in a VONC for now
Never heard of the US lawyer. Clare Montgomery QC is good but I doubt she has been involved in the recent work. The rest are gruesome and unknown. They should be sacked and decisions made about the case made by anyone other than Andrew who appears to have no brain cells at all.
Don't have Times subscription so cannot access the story.
Based on intensive research (that is, minute of googling) learned that Andy's chief US counsel is " top Hollywood lawyer Andrew Brettler, known for previously representing several high-profile celebrities accused of sexual assault."
The consensus on the various news channels seems to be that Johnson will be the human shield for the Tories' anticipated poor local election results in May, and therefore won't be forced out before then.
Time to recover for Boris by then, restrictions will have ended so he can win back voters who have gone RefUK or DK since Plan B (RefUK still on 4% tonight for example). Plus if the Tories hold a few token councils like Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea he can point to that as most of England does not vote in May although all of London does
The longer he remains in office the more he damages your party (which suits me). If Johnson wasn't only all about Johnson he would already have fallen on his sword.
If Johnson goes, the next leader assuming it is someone half sensible gets an immediate 5 point poll lead. Then normal politics resumes and it is nip and tuck to the next GE, with hung Parliament or small Tory majority as decent shouts.
If your boy survives he takes the party and the country down with him. If he were to win that GE he will have promised something very regretful so to do.
No new leader would suddenly get a poll lead. Truss and Gove trailed Starmer Labour by more than the 10% Boris trails with tonight with Opinium last month and even Sunak still trailed if leader, even if it was closer
Henry Zeffman @hzeffman EXCLUSIVE Times/YouGov poll gives Labour their biggest lead since Dec 2013
Lab 38 (+1) Con 28 (-5) LDem 13 (+3) Green 7 (+1) RefUK 4 (-1)
I hear the bell tolling for Boris
Lab 327 seats Con 220 Lib 19 SNP 59 Green 1
Yes that is a Labour Majority.
I did say a while ago a Labour majority was possible and was laughed at for it.
That's only possible on current seats, not the new boundaries
on the new boundaries it's Lab 313 and Tories 234.
So after all that Sir Keir STILL cannot even get a majority on the new boundaries even after the avalanche of attacks Boris has faced this week
You are being very naive.
If the Conservatives tumble to 28% all sorts of permutations will be thrown up. There will not be a uniform swing. The LDs will be doing significantly better in terms of seats because in Southern England the Conservatives will get absolutely tonked! LDs in the North will also be voting Labour to rid themselves of Blue Meanies
Yes. I was pointing out the disconnect about the 1997 election yesterday. Labour seriously under performed their polling, while the Tories hit theirs. Yet everybody was astonished by the result. 179 majority was way beyond expectations. That was tactical voting that was. Kick the Tories was out was the theme. Folk didn't really care who beat them.
Blair Labour was still polling well over 40% though pre 1997 and got well over 40%, Starmer Labour still is yet to hit 40%
In both of the last two elections, Labour has outperformed its polling in the lead up to the campaign. That may in part be due to corrections made post-2015. But one thing that I think will help decide the next election is whether Starmer can squeeze the 'anti-Tory/don't know' vote similarly or whether that was a product of Corbyn being woefully unpopular so that when usually reliable Lab voters were saying they'd go elsewhere but came home when forced to make a blunt choice.
Henry Zeffman @hzeffman EXCLUSIVE Times/YouGov poll gives Labour their biggest lead since Dec 2013
Lab 38 (+1) Con 28 (-5) LDem 13 (+3) Green 7 (+1) RefUK 4 (-1)
I hear the bell tolling for Boris
Lab 327 seats Con 220 Lib 19 SNP 59 Green 1
Yes that is a Labour Majority.
I did say a while ago a Labour majority was possible and was laughed at for it.
That's only possible on current seats, not the new boundaries
on the new boundaries it's Lab 313 and Tories 234.
So after all that Sir Keir STILL cannot even get a majority on the new boundaries even after the avalanche of attacks Boris has faced this week
You are being very naive.
If the Conservatives tumble to 28% all sorts of permutations will be thrown up. There will not be a uniform swing. The LDs will be doing significantly better in terms of seats because in Southern England the Conservatives will get absolutely tonked! LDs in the North will also be voting Labour to rid themselves of Blue Meanies
Yes. I was pointing out the disconnect about the 1997 election yesterday. Labour seriously under performed their polling, while the Tories hit theirs. Yet everybody was astonished by the result. 179 majority was way beyond expectations. That was tactical voting that was. Kick the Tories was out was the theme. Folk didn't really care who beat them.
Blair Labour was still polling well over 40% though pre 1997 and got well over 40%, Starmer Labour still is yet to hit 40%
Nonetheless, here's that 10-point lead which you predicted would lead to Johnson's removal?
He also said it would be entirely dependent on restrictions. Folk have moved on. Facemasks in Tesco's aren't the vote mover many think they are.
The consensus on the various news channels seems to be that Johnson will be the human shield for the Tories' anticipated poor local election results in May, and therefore won't be forced out before then.
Time to recover for Boris by then, restrictions will have ended so he can win back voters who have gone RefUK or DK since Plan B (RefUK still on 4% tonight for example). Plus if the Tories hold a few token councils like Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea he can point to that as most of England does not vote in May although all of London does
The longer he remains in office the more he damages your party (which suits me). If Johnson wasn't only all about Johnson he would already have fallen on his sword.
If Johnson goes, the next leader assuming it is someone half sensible gets an immediate 5 point poll lead. Then normal politics resumes and it is nip and tuck to the next GE, with hung Parliament or small Tory majority as decent shouts.
If your boy survives he takes the party and the country down with him. If he were to win that GE he will have promised something very regretful so to do.
Can still remember how my rock-ribbed GOP grandfather used to curse "Herbert Goddamn Hoover" for tanking the Republicans and handing the government to FDR.
Wonder if HYUFD will wind up muttering to HIS grandchildren in similar fashion about "Bloody Boris Johnson"?
The consensus on the various news channels seems to be that Johnson will be the human shield for the Tories' anticipated poor local election results in May, and therefore won't be forced out before then.
Time to recover for Boris by then, restrictions will have ended so he can win back voters who have gone RefUK or DK since Plan B (RefUK still on 4% tonight for example). Plus if the Tories hold a few token councils like Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea he can point to that as most of England does not vote in May although all of London does
The longer he remains in office the more he damages your party (which suits me). If Johnson wasn't only all about Johnson he would already have fallen on his sword.
If Johnson goes, the next leader assuming it is someone half sensible gets an immediate 5 point poll lead. Then normal politics resumes and it is nip and tuck to the next GE, with hung Parliament or small Tory majority as decent shouts.
If your boy survives he takes the party and the country down with him. If he were to win that GE he will have promised something very regretful so to do.
No new leader would suddenly get a poll lead. Truss and Gove trailed Starmer Labour by more than the 10% Boris trails with tonight with Opinium last month and even Sunak still trailed if leader, even if it was closer
They will get a honeymoon bounce because people like Sunak, Hunt or Mordaunt exude confidence and the perception of competence. Truss, Raab or Patel perhaps not so much.
Comments
So this is quite an ongoing theme
Edit; Benpointer beat to this one.
And not before time too.
Couldn't happen to a nicer, or dimmer, bloke.
1) The Duke of Edinburgh, utterly without airs or graces, lovely chap to talk to
2) The Queen, puts people at ease
3) The Wessexes, really nice couple
4) Harry/William - Two young nice chaps
5) Princess Anne a bit arsey but a bit like a Northern battleaxe
6) Prince Charles - Ludicrous requests (sandwiches have to be cut diagonally, has to have a certain brand of toilet paper, nobody must use the dedicated Charles toilet seven days beforehand) but once he arrives he's ok
7) Prince Andrew - Utter turd
One other thing it reminded me of was when the Chinese revised their Covid deaths up by exactly 50%. The exactitude has the air of being completely made up, and meant to be obviously so.
I do hope so.
If it is that bloody important to you, bring your own toilet paper.
If one had predicted Boris downfall for hosting a piss up in Downing street you would have put money on its being rampant out of control affair with hookers and blow and Boris caught in the stationary cupboard with a young lady that wasn't his wife.
But Stratton deserved to be got rid of.
There's no shortage of reasons to be angry with Boris but Allegra Stratton's self inflicted career damage is not one of them.
We will be fine with William and Kate - I hear good things about her. A bit boring maybe but that's fine, even welcome. The Queen was boring and Margaret was "not boring". Et voila. It is always difficult being the second spare royal child but at least Margaret had some sass, taste and wit, Andrew seems devoid of anything but libido and entitlement. A boor
Kate is tediously impeccable in her behaviour and gracious in manner. She will gain wisdom, as will he
They just need to find a way to hide Andrew in a cyber-dungeon for the rest of recorded time. Deputy Governor of the South Shetland Isles (south); something like that
If the Conservatives tumble to 28% all sorts of permutations will be thrown up. There will not be a uniform swing. The LDs will be doing significantly better in terms of seats because in Southern England the Conservatives will get absolutely tonked! LDs in the North will also be voting Labour to rid themselves of Blue Meanies
@wesstreeting
.
@KirstyWark
described Sue Gray as ‘independent’ on
@BBCNewsnight
. This is incorrect. She is a civil servant who reports to her superiors. She is in an impossible position, with an impossible task, but it is inaccurate to describe her as independent.
That's what you get when you can spend eight billion quid per episode
PS one of my best friends is a scriptwriter on the series! So I do have an insight....
Boris made some clear mistakes during covid but is being brought down by another person's idiocy.
Meanwhile:
Warwick model English hospitalisation prediction 12,832
Actual English hospitalisations 2,180
https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios
Merely getting 300 seats would be a massive result.
If they did that well in England (relative to the Tories) they'd probably win 5-10 seats in Scotland as well.
Presumably the plan was to make BoJo the scapegoat for all that financial unpleasantness, before AN Other splashed the cash in 2023/4.
Labour seriously under performed their polling, while the Tories hit theirs. Yet everybody was astonished by the result. 179 majority was way beyond expectations.
That was tactical voting that was. Kick the Tories was out was the theme. Folk didn't really care who beat them.
It really does call into question the Queen's judgement to be her favorite. Or maybe it's just because no one else likes him.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1481405604946231296?t=JgZx3oXxr6jjnzU3e09nXQ&s=19
Stratton wanted the job and showed she was incapable of doing it.
Boris Johnson = Stepmom on Pornhub.
It is still remarkable for its dedicated verisimilitude. Few shows compare
Their Omicron 10% as severe as Delta model is pretty spot on
Here are Andrew's advisors.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-good-news-gary-pricey-aides-ghislaine-maxwell-0n39pdspd
Never heard of the US lawyer. Clare Montgomery QC is good but I doubt she has been involved in the recent work. The rest are gruesome and unknown. They should be sacked and decisions made about the case made by anyone other than Andrew who appears to have no brain cells at all.
The best thing a parent can do is NOT have a favourite, is a pretty good rule of thumb
“An outright LAB majority would require 124 seat gains which is hardly likely.”
Sorry Mike, I couldn’t help myself
The few Redwall district council areas up in May like Burnley and Lincoln which elected Tory MPs in 2019 all still have Labour controlled councils or at least Labour as largest party.
There are 0 Tory controlled councils in Wales or Scotland
But then, I only have one child, so I really am talking outside of my area of knowledge.
Jacob it is then.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1481407487609913346?s=21
If Johnson goes, the next leader assuming it is someone half sensible gets an immediate 5 point poll lead. Then normal politics resumes and it is nip and tuck to the next GE, with hung Parliament or small Tory majority as decent shouts.
If your boy survives he takes the party and the country down with him. If he were to win that GE he will have promised something very regretful so to do.
@BBCNewsnight
"From the conversations I've had from people inside government... the gatherings we know about aren't the only ones."
Mirror political editor
@PippaCrerar
says she keeps getting told about other "other allegations" which she's investigating
Is "Vote Ross, JRM says he's a lightweight" a vote winner or a loser?
One for our northern friends.
Based on intensive research (that is, minute of googling) learned that Andy's chief US counsel is " top Hollywood lawyer Andrew Brettler, known for previously representing several high-profile celebrities accused of sexual assault."
https://inews.co.uk/news/prince-andrew-lawyer-andrew-brettler-clients-armie-hammer-bryan-singer-sex-charges-1198013
So notion that his US legal team is ipso facto crapo appears dubious. Like I said before, they are working without a net.
And trying to defend the indefensible. NOT impossible, but hardly a snap, leastways in a court of law.
Folk have moved on. Facemasks in Tesco's aren't the vote mover many think they are.
Fresh flints to knap, tomorrow. A new project beckons
Sleep well
Wonder if HYUFD will wind up muttering to HIS grandchildren in similar fashion about "Bloody Boris Johnson"?