I may well be wrong but isn't EFTA distinct from free movement? That's the EFTA-EEA relationship isn't it? I think you can be in EFTA without the EEA.
My guess is that if someone wanted to push a new relationship with the EU, they would be better designing it from scratch -albeit drawing on wider inspiration - rather than trying to frame things around existing offerings or suggesting, even inadvertently, it could be at the whim of the EU. Then, over a long time period you may actually see a Europe of concentric circles, but built from outside the EU.
Not quite true: the EFTA treaty allows free movement between the countries that make up EFTA, albeit just the narrow "freedom to work", rather than the broader "freedom to be treated as a citizen and recieve all benefits"
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
'Somewhere between neutral to beneficial' implies at least some benefits. Care to list any?
End of free movement and regained sovereignty as most of the working class voted for.
They also replaced a pro austerity Tory government with a populist high spending Tory government too
End of free movement isn't a benefit. People might have voted for it, but it's not good. The people had votes in 2017 and 2019 to choose the nature of the government, if was not the referendum that chose a Theresa May minority and a Boris Johnson majority.
It was not a benefit for the middle class, it was a benefit for many of the working class for whom it caused downward pressure on their wages and pressure on public services and housing
Well we can all see how pressures on public services and housing have eased since Brexit.
Er...
Wages are up since Brexit, especially for the lower skilled.
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
Don't think so - they are locked into international trade, and doing well out of it. It's a huge country and we tend toi overinterpret news from individual bits of it, egged on by hostile Twitter accounts. It's like trying to predict the state of the USA after reading of disturbing events in Wyoming.
People tend to expect drama too much of the time. How's the invasion of Taiwan coming along?
"People tend to expect drama too much of the time"
We've had the biggest plague in a century, twenty million dead (and counting), a revolution in how we all live, and the greatest peacetime economic collapse in 300 years, all in the last 22 months. I'm sorry that's not dramatic enough for you
[snip]I'm optimistic that Brexit will turn out to be a medium term economic positive, but it's entirely possible - now it's all in our hands - that we elect buffoons and fuck it up.
Well, we have elected buffoons, but, leaving that aside, I'm fascinated by how you can possibly see any economic positive in Brexit at all. What exactly could we do (if we didn't have buffoons running the country) that we couldn't do before, and which is sufficiently powerful to offset the blindingly obvious economic downside of erecting massive barriers to trade with the huge, prosperous market on our doorstep?
Because we elect and eject all those who rule us
Independent, adaptive countries do better than states in massive blocs is a pretty good rule of thumb, tho there are exceptions, as always
But as Robert implies, we need to get the hang of being independent, and being able to act fast and cleverly because of that independence. We may entirely fail
The vaccine success is the only real example of our doing this, so far (tho it is quite a significant one). The bullshit that "we could have done this in the EU" IS bullshit. The emotional/political pressure to be in the EU vax scheme would have totally overwhelmed any Remainy government (which is what we would have had, post a Remain vote)
Come on Brexity Britain, shape up
But that's part of the question. What's the right scale for the "us" that needs to be nimble?
Brexit backers (in particular, ones who see themselves as pirates) are pretty clear- the government needs to be nimble, and that's why Westminster is better than Brussels. (Though curiously, Westminster is also better than Edinburgh, or Manchester, or Southampton.) But as a moderately good little Thatcherite, I'm not so sure.
Governments don't make wealth. Individuals and businesses do. And whilst that's not really my bag at all, I can see the case that what they really want is a predictable set of rules that work the same way over a wide area. Sclerotic, if you like. The exception is if the current rulers are stopping them doing something they really want to do, and they hope a different judge will give them a different verdict.
It was the Cummings vision- pump enough data quickly enough into a room with a smallish number of clever people, and the government can allocate resources in a nimble and optimal way. It was a souped-up version of the vision of Soviet technocrats in the Red Plenty era. And it works if the question is simple (how do we win a war? how do we make lots of vaccines quickly?). But most of the time, it's bonkers.
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
Don't think so - they are locked into international trade, and doing well out of it. It's a huge country and we tend toi overinterpret news from individual bits of it, egged on by hostile Twitter accounts. It's like trying to predict the state of the USA after reading of disturbing events in Wyoming.
People tend to expect drama too much of the time. How's the invasion of Taiwan coming along?
Exactly right. People always think we're on the verge of some epoch-defining something or other, and I think it's actually a form of projected egotism. I'm special, so I must be alive during Pivotal Times
Said it before. But pretty much everything China does these days, is a sign of weakness not strength. This lockdown is another. Along with dramatic "amateur" footage. No coincidence it's happened as Evergrande went tits up. Guess which one we, and they, are discussing?
If China's economy is going to blow up then people will feel the effects whether they discuss it or not.
Now, perhaps, not discussing it might allow time for certain people to get their money out
And visas for themselves and their families. I don't think China will blow up. But it is in for an almighty property correction/collapse. A pandemic, with accompanying "patriotic" draconian restrictions might be the just the thing right now.
China's banks would have been declared insolvent under any western accounting standards years over but Chinese GAAP has allowed them to keep going. The Chinese Govt will not allow the banking system to collapse under any circumstances. However, a property company is probably considered manageable.
There is a reason they have chosen now to (finally) ban bitcoin. They know that something bad is about to go down, probably a property crash, and they want to shut down crypto as a possible avenue of capital flight.
There's another - less sexy reason - why they're banning bitcoin: it's driven the price of energy up for Chinese exporters. A polysilicon purification plant that could previously make good money is paying far more for electricity than they used to, because Bitcoin miners have come in and increased demand so much.
One of the many reasons that Cryptos are so bad is the squandering of scarce energy on them. They are not a creator of wealth but rather a destroyer of it.
A myth debunked, time and time again. First thirty or so articles collected here. https://endthefud.org/
For me, the interesting thing about bitcoin is it demands the cheapest energy possible. And what is the cheapest energy? Well, surplus energy that is generated via green sources, that has nowhere else to go.
Imagine, for example, setting up a massive solar farm. But you can only sell the energy from it 50% of the time, the rest of the time the surplus energy it generates is lost (e.g. because on a hot summer's day, people use their heating less).
What bitcoin does is provide a market for all that surplus energy, because bitcoin miners want the cheapest energy possible in order to maximise profits. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying bitcoin miners are paid up members of the Green Party, they would literally shovel kittens into coal power stations to produce energy if that is what made them the most possible amount of money.
But bitcoin does create massive economic incentives for new clean energy projects by providing a market for "surplus" energy that otherwise wouldn't be used.
El Salvador building a geothermal plant to harness a volcano's power to mine bitcoin is probably the most famous example, but you get the point.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
But the ability, capacity and willingness to reverse it will diminish, over time, on both sides. Few divorces end in remarriage even if both sides regret it
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
One thing that encourages me is that the desire to reverse Brexit remains strong and growing. There is much Bregret and feeling that Brexit was a mistake. No major English party will run on a Rejoin platform in 2024, though the LDs have that as a long term objective.
I think it will be stronger still by the 2030's. It wouldn't surprise me if we Rejoined under a Conservatve government. After all it was under the Conservatives that we joined and under the Conservatives that we enacted the Single Market. One day the Tories will realise that they are in a cul de sac, and do a 180°.
The average Tory is a non graduate, over 50. The average Remainer is a graduate, under 50.
We will never rejoin the EU or likely even the single market under a Conservative government unless it completely changed its voter base
It we rejoined it would be under a Labour led government, maybe with the LDs and the Tories then getting into government later and accepting that
Said it before. But pretty much everything China does these days, is a sign of weakness not strength. This lockdown is another. Along with dramatic "amateur" footage. No coincidence it's happened as Evergrande went tits up. Guess which one we, and they, are discussing?
If China's economy is going to blow up then people will feel the effects whether they discuss it or not.
Now, perhaps, not discussing it might allow time for certain people to get their money out
And visas for themselves and their families. I don't think China will blow up. But it is in for an almighty property correction/collapse. A pandemic, with accompanying "patriotic" draconian restrictions might be the just the thing right now.
China's banks would have been declared insolvent under any western accounting standards years over but Chinese GAAP has allowed them to keep going. The Chinese Govt will not allow the banking system to collapse under any circumstances. However, a property company is probably considered manageable.
There is a reason they have chosen now to (finally) ban bitcoin. They know that something bad is about to go down, probably a property crash, and they want to shut down crypto as a possible avenue of capital flight.
There's another - less sexy reason - why they're banning bitcoin: it's driven the price of energy up for Chinese exporters. A polysilicon purification plant that could previously make good money is paying far more for electricity than they used to, because Bitcoin miners have come in and increased demand so much.
One of the many reasons that Cryptos are so bad is the squandering of scarce energy on them. They are not a creator of wealth but rather a destroyer of it.
A myth debunked, time and time again. First thirty or so articles collected here. https://endthefud.org/
For me, the interesting thing about bitcoin is it demands the cheapest energy possible. And what is the cheapest energy? Well, surplus energy that is generated via green sources, that has nowhere else to go.
Imagine, for example, setting up a massive solar farm. But you can only sell the energy from it 50% of the time, the rest of the time the surplus energy it generates is lost (e.g. because on a hot summer's day, people use their heating less).
What bitcoin does is provide a market for all that surplus energy, because bitcoin miners want the cheapest energy possible in order to maximise profits. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying bitcoin miners are paid up members of the Green Party, they would literally shovel kittens into coal power stations to produce energy if that is what made them the most possible amount of money.
But bitcoin does create massive economic incentives for new clean energy projects by providing a market for "surplus" energy that otherwise wouldn't be used.
In April of this year - before the ban - two thirds of Bitcoin mining happened in China.
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
Don't think so - they are locked into international trade, and doing well out of it. It's a huge country and we tend toi overinterpret news from individual bits of it, egged on by hostile Twitter accounts. It's like trying to predict the state of the USA after reading of disturbing events in Wyoming.
People tend to expect drama too much of the time. How's the invasion of Taiwan coming along?
I think you misinterpret what is happening in China. It's not about news in individual bits of it, it's about Xi Jinping's very hardline and arrogant approach to the world. He seems to think he can retain the advantages of China's position in international trade whilst completely ignoring what its trading partners think. The fast-moving destruction of freedom in Hong Kong is the most obvious example; there is no way that that is compatible with Hong Kong remaining the world-class financial centre that it has been for years. Of course it's not all going to end overnight, but I'll be very surprised if China's influence and economic power doesn't fall back considerably over the next decade. There are, after all, plenty of other countries with well-educated and motivated populations willing to work for lower wages than those in the West.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
But the ability, capacity and willingness to reverse it will diminish, over time, on both sides. Few divorces end in remarriage even if both sides regret it
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
One thing that encourages me is that the desire to reverse Brexit remains strong and growing. There is much Bregret and feeling that Brexit was a mistake. No major English party will run on a Rejoin platform in 2024, though the LDs have that as a long term objective.
I think it will be stronger still by the 2030's. It wouldn't surprise me if we Rejoined under a Conservatve government. After all it was under the Conservatives that we joined and under the Conservatives that we enacted the Single Market. One day the Tories will realise that they are in a cul de sac, and do a 180°.
The average Tory is a non graduate, over 50. The average Remainer is a graduate, under 50.
We will never rejoin the EU or likely even the singe market under a Conservative government unless it completely changed its voter base
It we rejoined it would be under a Labour led government, maybe with the LDs and the Tories then getting into government later and accepting that
So, essentially to are telling us that the Tories have an expiration date... Quite a relief, because bluntly this is the kind of fuck up that no political party should recover from.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
But the ability, capacity and willingness to reverse it will diminish, over time, on both sides. Few divorces end in remarriage even if both sides regret it
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
One thing that encourages me is that the desire to reverse Brexit remains strong and growing. There is much Bregret and feeling that Brexit was a mistake. No major English party will run on a Rejoin platform in 2024, though the LDs have that as a long term objective.
I think it will be stronger still by the 2030's. It wouldn't surprise me if we Rejoined under a Conservatve government. After all it was under the Conservatives that we joined and under the Conservatives that we enacted the Single Market. One day the Tories will realise that they are in a cul de sac, and do a 180°.
The average Tory is a non graduate, over 50. The average Remainer is a graduate, under 50.
We will never rejoin the EU or likely even the singe market under a Conservative government unless it completely changed its voter base
It we rejoined it would be under a Labour led government, maybe with the LDs and the Tories then getting into government later and accepting that
So, essentially to are telling us that the Tories have an expiration date... Quite a relief, because bluntly this is the kind of fuck up that no political party should recover from.
No. Most over 35s are still home owners with or without a mortgage and potential Tory voters. The type Cameron won.
Brexit may have a time limit however, at least in its current form and in a decade or 2 Labour may take us into a softer Brexit or even rejoin and a later Tory government then accepts that to get back into power
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
They are the Chinese Communist Party. But you can't be all three successfully. Mao tried to be not Chinese. Deng by not being Communist. Xi is trying all three. But the contradictions are inherent. There are other factions. They are keeping their heads down, but, it must be apparent to even the thickest that the present road isn't sustainable. Push will come to shove. But it won't be the fall of China. The population is literate, reasonably well-educated, and, for the time being at least, enormous. With a heck of a lot to be proud of to be frank. Moreover, there is little centripetal force. Power remains in the Eastern cities. If, and when, the property market implodes, my bet is this. Xi is quietly retired. A new generation takes over. They promote "traditional Chinese values". An end to rapacious Capitalism, and ostentatious consumerism and settle as a role as a mid-ranking power. More introspection. Less attempting to beat the West at their own game. More pride in being resolutely Chinese. An end to the "cultural cringe." Expect Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism to be the dominant philosophical triptych in dynamic tension again. I could be very wrong of course, but I'm reasonably optimistic.
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
They are the Chinese Communist Party. But you can't be all three successfully. Mao tried to be not Chinese. Deng by not being Communist. Xi is trying all three. But the contradictions are inherent. There are other factions. They are keeping their heads down, but, it must be apparent to even the thickest that the present road isn't sustainable. Push will come to shove. But it won't be the fall of China. The population is literate, reasonably well-educated, and, for the time being at least, enormous. With a heck of a lot to be proud of to be frank. Moreover, there is little centripetal force. Power remains in the Eastern cities. If, and when, the property market implodes, my bet is this. Xi is quietly retired. A new generation takes over. They promote "traditional Chinese values". An end to rapacious Capitalism, and ostentatious consumerism and settle as a role as a mid-ranking power. More introspection. Less attempting to beat the West at their own game. More pride in being resolutely Chinese. An end to the "cultural cringe." Expect Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism to be the dominant philosophical triptych in dynamic tension again. I could be very wrong of course, but I'm reasonably optimistic.
I like your optimism.
Remember, though, that previous Chinese leaderships served for a decade. Xi decided he didn't want that, and is now effectively President for Life.
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
They are the Chinese Communist Party. But you can't be all three successfully. Mao tried to be not Chinese. Deng by not being Communist. Xi is trying all three. But the contradictions are inherent. There are other factions. They are keeping their heads down, but, it must be apparent to even the thickest that the present road isn't sustainable. Push will come to shove. But it won't be the fall of China. The population is literate, reasonably well-educated, and, for the time being at least, enormous. With a heck of a lot to be proud of to be frank. Moreover, there is little centripetal force. Power remains in the Eastern cities. If, and when, the property market implodes, my bet is this. Xi is quietly retired. A new generation takes over. They promote "traditional Chinese values". An end to rapacious Capitalism, and ostentatious consumerism and settle as a role as a mid-ranking power. More introspection. Less attempting to beat the West at their own game. More pride in being resolutely Chinese. An end to the "cultural cringe." Expect Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism to be the dominant philosophical triptych in dynamic tension again. I could be very wrong of course, but I'm reasonably optimistic.
There is no way a culture, nation and civilisation as ancient, huge and influential as China will settle for being a "mid-ranking power". Nor should they. The concept is comically nuts. China will be happy to be like, say, Korea? Or, what, Holland? Canada? Australia? Poland?
By the nature of China's demographic and geographic size and its incredible weight in Asian societies, AND its huge diaspora, it will be a superpower whatever happens, the only question is whether it becomes THE superpower, a kind of hegemon - an Asian America - at least for a while
I reckon it will make it to that status, with America sniping away, but then other forces will prevail, as always. I don't believe China wants all-out war with the West - that means mutual destruction - but it is certainly prepared to push us to the edge. It has just swallowed Hong Kong. I predict it will swallow Taiwan. Hopefully it will stop there
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
They are the Chinese Communist Party. But you can't be all three successfully. Mao tried to be not Chinese. Deng by not being Communist. Xi is trying all three. But the contradictions are inherent. There are other factions. They are keeping their heads down, but, it must be apparent to even the thickest that the present road isn't sustainable. Push will come to shove. But it won't be the fall of China. The population is literate, reasonably well-educated, and, for the time being at least, enormous. With a heck of a lot to be proud of to be frank. Moreover, there is little centripetal force. Power remains in the Eastern cities. If, and when, the property market implodes, my bet is this. Xi is quietly retired. A new generation takes over. They promote "traditional Chinese values". An end to rapacious Capitalism, and ostentatious consumerism and settle as a role as a mid-ranking power. More introspection. Less attempting to beat the West at their own game. More pride in being resolutely Chinese. An end to the "cultural cringe." Expect Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism to be the dominant philosophical triptych in dynamic tension again. I could be very wrong of course, but I'm reasonably optimistic.
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
They are the Chinese Communist Party. But you can't be all three successfully. Mao tried to be not Chinese. Deng by not being Communist. Xi is trying all three. But the contradictions are inherent. There are other factions. They are keeping their heads down, but, it must be apparent to even the thickest that the present road isn't sustainable. Push will come to shove. But it won't be the fall of China. The population is literate, reasonably well-educated, and, for the time being at least, enormous. With a heck of a lot to be proud of to be frank. Moreover, there is little centripetal force. Power remains in the Eastern cities. If, and when, the property market implodes, my bet is this. Xi is quietly retired. A new generation takes over. They promote "traditional Chinese values". An end to rapacious Capitalism, and ostentatious consumerism and settle as a role as a mid-ranking power. More introspection. Less attempting to beat the West at their own game. More pride in being resolutely Chinese. An end to the "cultural cringe." Expect Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism to be the dominant philosophical triptych in dynamic tension again. I could be very wrong of course, but I'm reasonably optimistic.
I like your optimism.
Remember, though, that previous Chinese leaderships served for a decade. Xi decided he didn't want that, and is now effectively President for Life.
It's not optimism, it is delusional nonsense
China is not going to be content as a "mid ranking power". That is beyond farcical
Try telling Americans they must be more like Canada or Portugal or Indonesia in their expectations of the world, and the respect their country demands
For most of recorded human history, China has been the biggest economic power, with India close behind at times. This is just a reversion to the mean. The era of western supremacy was the aberration. China has that self-image in its DNA
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
They are the Chinese Communist Party. But you can't be all three successfully. Mao tried to be not Chinese. Deng by not being Communist. Xi is trying all three. But the contradictions are inherent. There are other factions. They are keeping their heads down, but, it must be apparent to even the thickest that the present road isn't sustainable. Push will come to shove. But it won't be the fall of China. The population is literate, reasonably well-educated, and, for the time being at least, enormous. With a heck of a lot to be proud of to be frank. Moreover, there is little centripetal force. Power remains in the Eastern cities. If, and when, the property market implodes, my bet is this. Xi is quietly retired. A new generation takes over. They promote "traditional Chinese values". An end to rapacious Capitalism, and ostentatious consumerism and settle as a role as a mid-ranking power. More introspection. Less attempting to beat the West at their own game. More pride in being resolutely Chinese. An end to the "cultural cringe." Expect Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism to be the dominant philosophical triptych in dynamic tension again. I could be very wrong of course, but I'm reasonably optimistic.
There is no way a culture, nation and civilisation as ancient, huge and influential as China will settle for being a "mid-ranking power". Nor should they. The concept is comically nuts. China will be happy to be like, say, Korea? Or, what, Holland? Canada? Australia? Poland?
By the nature of China's demographic and geographic size and its incredible weight in Asian societies, AND its huge diaspora, it will be a superpower whatever happens, the only question is whether it becomes THE superpower, a kind of hegemon - an Asian America - at least for a while
I reckon it will make it to that status, with America sniping away, but then other forces will prevail, as always. I don't believe China wants all-out war with the West - that means mutual destruction - but it is certainly prepared to push us to the edge. It has just swallowed Hong Kong. I predict it will swallow Taiwan. Hopefully it will stop there
By mid-ranking I meant sort of Japan pre WW1. So bigger than the examples you cite.
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
They are the Chinese Communist Party. But you can't be all three successfully. Mao tried to be not Chinese. Deng by not being Communist. Xi is trying all three. But the contradictions are inherent. There are other factions. They are keeping their heads down, but, it must be apparent to even the thickest that the present road isn't sustainable. Push will come to shove. But it won't be the fall of China. The population is literate, reasonably well-educated, and, for the time being at least, enormous. With a heck of a lot to be proud of to be frank. Moreover, there is little centripetal force. Power remains in the Eastern cities. If, and when, the property market implodes, my bet is this. Xi is quietly retired. A new generation takes over. They promote "traditional Chinese values". An end to rapacious Capitalism, and ostentatious consumerism and settle as a role as a mid-ranking power. More introspection. Less attempting to beat the West at their own game. More pride in being resolutely Chinese. An end to the "cultural cringe." Expect Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism to be the dominant philosophical triptych in dynamic tension again. I could be very wrong of course, but I'm reasonably optimistic.
There is no way a culture, nation and civilisation as ancient, huge and influential as China will settle for being a "mid-ranking power". Nor should they. The concept is comically nuts. China will be happy to be like, say, Korea? Or, what, Holland? Canada? Australia? Poland?
By the nature of China's demographic and geographic size and its incredible weight in Asian societies, AND its huge diaspora, it will be a superpower whatever happens, the only question is whether it becomes THE superpower, a kind of hegemon - an Asian America - at least for a while
I reckon it will make it to that status, with America sniping away, but then other forces will prevail, as always. I don't believe China wants all-out war with the West - that means mutual destruction - but it is certainly prepared to push us to the edge. It has just swallowed Hong Kong. I predict it will swallow Taiwan. Hopefully it will stop there
By mid-ranking I meant sort of Japan pre WW1. So bigger than the examples you cite.
It's still not going to happen, nor anything near to that. You do not understand Asia or Asian history, you can't - if you make a remark like that. China is pumped up with self pride and nationalism. It is the world's biggest trading power, and the world's biggest market. Already. By PPP its economy is already larger than the USA, and thus the biggest in the world
It is overtaking the West on almost every metric (except, sadly, freedom and free speech, but even their our supremacy is questionable. Wokeness?).
The trajectory is set in stone. China will rise to number 1 status - whatever we do. But that doesn't mean we have to kneel before it. If the Free World unites, it will be a match for, if not stronger than, China, in most foreseeable circumstances
And China is surrounded by enemies that fear or resent her. Which will always wall her in, to an extent
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
They are the Chinese Communist Party. But you can't be all three successfully. Mao tried to be not Chinese. Deng by not being Communist. Xi is trying all three. But the contradictions are inherent. There are other factions. They are keeping their heads down, but, it must be apparent to even the thickest that the present road isn't sustainable. Push will come to shove. But it won't be the fall of China. The population is literate, reasonably well-educated, and, for the time being at least, enormous. With a heck of a lot to be proud of to be frank. Moreover, there is little centripetal force. Power remains in the Eastern cities. If, and when, the property market implodes, my bet is this. Xi is quietly retired. A new generation takes over. They promote "traditional Chinese values". An end to rapacious Capitalism, and ostentatious consumerism and settle as a role as a mid-ranking power. More introspection. Less attempting to beat the West at their own game. More pride in being resolutely Chinese. An end to the "cultural cringe." Expect Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism to be the dominant philosophical triptych in dynamic tension again. I could be very wrong of course, but I'm reasonably optimistic.
I like your optimism.
Remember, though, that previous Chinese leaderships served for a decade. Xi decided he didn't want that, and is now effectively President for Life.
It's not optimism, it is delusional nonsense
China is not going to be content as a "mid ranking power". That is beyond farcical
Try telling Americans they must be more like Canada or Portugal or Indonesia in their expectations of the world, and the respect their country demands
For most of recorded human history, China has been the biggest economic power, with India close behind at times. This is just a reversion to the mean. The era of western supremacy was the aberration. China has that self-image in its DNA
The self-image is crucial though. At the start of the 19th C they were still the throne of the Jade Emperor. It quickly became clear that they were actually a pathetically weak backwater. This was a huge psychic shock. Equivalent to being visited by aliens as it were. They don't have this inferiority complex anymore. Tens of millions of Chinese have studied overseas now. They have learned they are just as capable if not more so than the West. They have the tech. But Westerners don't seem to be any happier. In fact, possibly less so. So. Why not take the best of the West. And combine it with Chinese philosophy and religion? Ours hasn't.led to much after all. And, I do accept I could be very wrong here.
Could we actually manage a draw in one of the matches???
The umpires have been out, had a look and gone off to chat to the captains. I wouldn't have thought we'd be in for a long wait, given how quickly the rain has passed.
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
They are the Chinese Communist Party. But you can't be all three successfully. Mao tried to be not Chinese. Deng by not being Communist. Xi is trying all three. But the contradictions are inherent. There are other factions. They are keeping their heads down, but, it must be apparent to even the thickest that the present road isn't sustainable. Push will come to shove. But it won't be the fall of China. The population is literate, reasonably well-educated, and, for the time being at least, enormous. With a heck of a lot to be proud of to be frank. Moreover, there is little centripetal force. Power remains in the Eastern cities. If, and when, the property market implodes, my bet is this. Xi is quietly retired. A new generation takes over. They promote "traditional Chinese values". An end to rapacious Capitalism, and ostentatious consumerism and settle as a role as a mid-ranking power. More introspection. Less attempting to beat the West at their own game. More pride in being resolutely Chinese. An end to the "cultural cringe." Expect Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism to be the dominant philosophical triptych in dynamic tension again. I could be very wrong of course, but I'm reasonably optimistic.
I like your optimism.
Remember, though, that previous Chinese leaderships served for a decade. Xi decided he didn't want that, and is now effectively President for Life.
This is also true. It could easily go another way.
Could we actually manage a draw in one of the matches???
The umpires have been out, had a look and gone off to chat to the captains. I wouldn't have thought we'd be in for a long wait, given how quickly the rain has passed.
What about Covid tests? Any chance of a few positives???
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
They are the Chinese Communist Party. But you can't be all three successfully. Mao tried to be not Chinese. Deng by not being Communist. Xi is trying all three. But the contradictions are inherent. There are other factions. They are keeping their heads down, but, it must be apparent to even the thickest that the present road isn't sustainable. Push will come to shove. But it won't be the fall of China. The population is literate, reasonably well-educated, and, for the time being at least, enormous. With a heck of a lot to be proud of to be frank. Moreover, there is little centripetal force. Power remains in the Eastern cities. If, and when, the property market implodes, my bet is this. Xi is quietly retired. A new generation takes over. They promote "traditional Chinese values". An end to rapacious Capitalism, and ostentatious consumerism and settle as a role as a mid-ranking power. More introspection. Less attempting to beat the West at their own game. More pride in being resolutely Chinese. An end to the "cultural cringe." Expect Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism to be the dominant philosophical triptych in dynamic tension again. I could be very wrong of course, but I'm reasonably optimistic.
I like your optimism.
Remember, though, that previous Chinese leaderships served for a decade. Xi decided he didn't want that, and is now effectively President for Life.
It's not optimism, it is delusional nonsense
China is not going to be content as a "mid ranking power". That is beyond farcical
Try telling Americans they must be more like Canada or Portugal or Indonesia in their expectations of the world, and the respect their country demands
For most of recorded human history, China has been the biggest economic power, with India close behind at times. This is just a reversion to the mean. The era of western supremacy was the aberration. China has that self-image in its DNA
In about 1985 it was expected by many that Japan would become one of the world's biggest superpowers due to their economic miracle. Sometimes "the obvious" doesn't happen.
Could we actually manage a draw in one of the matches???
The umpires have been out, had a look and gone off to chat to the captains. I wouldn't have thought we'd be in for a long wait, given how quickly the rain has passed.
What about Covid tests? Any chance of a few positives???
The England team couldn't even catch Omicron when their head coach gets it....says it all really.
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
They are the Chinese Communist Party. But you can't be all three successfully. Mao tried to be not Chinese. Deng by not being Communist. Xi is trying all three. But the contradictions are inherent. There are other factions. They are keeping their heads down, but, it must be apparent to even the thickest that the present road isn't sustainable. Push will come to shove. But it won't be the fall of China. The population is literate, reasonably well-educated, and, for the time being at least, enormous. With a heck of a lot to be proud of to be frank. Moreover, there is little centripetal force. Power remains in the Eastern cities. If, and when, the property market implodes, my bet is this. Xi is quietly retired. A new generation takes over. They promote "traditional Chinese values". An end to rapacious Capitalism, and ostentatious consumerism and settle as a role as a mid-ranking power. More introspection. Less attempting to beat the West at their own game. More pride in being resolutely Chinese. An end to the "cultural cringe." Expect Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism to be the dominant philosophical triptych in dynamic tension again. I could be very wrong of course, but I'm reasonably optimistic.
I like your optimism.
Remember, though, that previous Chinese leaderships served for a decade. Xi decided he didn't want that, and is now effectively President for Life.
It's not optimism, it is delusional nonsense
China is not going to be content as a "mid ranking power". That is beyond farcical
Try telling Americans they must be more like Canada or Portugal or Indonesia in their expectations of the world, and the respect their country demands
For most of recorded human history, China has been the biggest economic power, with India close behind at times. This is just a reversion to the mean. The era of western supremacy was the aberration. China has that self-image in its DNA
The self-image is crucial though. At the start of the 19th C they were still the throne of the Jade Emperor. It quickly became clear that they were actually a pathetically weak backwater. This was a huge psychic shock. Equivalent to being visited by aliens as it were. They don't have this inferiority complex anymore. Tens of millions of Chinese have studied overseas now. They have learned they are just as capable if not more so than the West. They have the tech. But Westerners don't seem to be any happier. In fact, possibly less so. So. Why not take the best of the West. And combine it with Chinese philosophy and religion? Ours hasn't.led to much after all. And, I do accept I could be very wrong here.
Unless the world breaks down in completely insane ways - not impossible, after Covid - Xi will either rule for another ten years or he will be replaced by someone pretty similar, ie a Chinese nationalist - in the same way patriotic American presidents are always replaced by more patriotic Americans
The era of China as a humbled broken place is over (as you note) the Chinese will not allow it to return. And their sheer size (and culture and education and all the rest) guarantees they will be number 1, or equal number 1. Citizens enjoy it when their country rules the world. Britons did, for a century or so; Americans have done the same, for another century
Will it be a Chinese century? I have my doubts. But we are definitely set for some Chinese decades, at the least
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
They are the Chinese Communist Party. But you can't be all three successfully. Mao tried to be not Chinese. Deng by not being Communist. Xi is trying all three. But the contradictions are inherent. There are other factions. They are keeping their heads down, but, it must be apparent to even the thickest that the present road isn't sustainable. Push will come to shove. But it won't be the fall of China. The population is literate, reasonably well-educated, and, for the time being at least, enormous. With a heck of a lot to be proud of to be frank. Moreover, there is little centripetal force. Power remains in the Eastern cities. If, and when, the property market implodes, my bet is this. Xi is quietly retired. A new generation takes over. They promote "traditional Chinese values". An end to rapacious Capitalism, and ostentatious consumerism and settle as a role as a mid-ranking power. More introspection. Less attempting to beat the West at their own game. More pride in being resolutely Chinese. An end to the "cultural cringe." Expect Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism to be the dominant philosophical triptych in dynamic tension again. I could be very wrong of course, but I'm reasonably optimistic.
I like your optimism.
Remember, though, that previous Chinese leaderships served for a decade. Xi decided he didn't want that, and is now effectively President for Life.
It's not optimism, it is delusional nonsense
China is not going to be content as a "mid ranking power". That is beyond farcical
Try telling Americans they must be more like Canada or Portugal or Indonesia in their expectations of the world, and the respect their country demands
For most of recorded human history, China has been the biggest economic power, with India close behind at times. This is just a reversion to the mean. The era of western supremacy was the aberration. China has that self-image in its DNA
In about 1985 it was expected by many that Japan would become one of the world's biggest superpowers due to their economic miracle. Sometimes "the obvious" doesn't happen.
Yes. And that is where I see China going. With a rise of a distinctly and proudly Chinese aesthetic and cultural tradition. They become one of the big players. Impossible to ignore, but no threat.
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
They are the Chinese Communist Party. But you can't be all three successfully. Mao tried to be not Chinese. Deng by not being Communist. Xi is trying all three. But the contradictions are inherent. There are other factions. They are keeping their heads down, but, it must be apparent to even the thickest that the present road isn't sustainable. Push will come to shove. But it won't be the fall of China. The population is literate, reasonably well-educated, and, for the time being at least, enormous. With a heck of a lot to be proud of to be frank. Moreover, there is little centripetal force. Power remains in the Eastern cities. If, and when, the property market implodes, my bet is this. Xi is quietly retired. A new generation takes over. They promote "traditional Chinese values". An end to rapacious Capitalism, and ostentatious consumerism and settle as a role as a mid-ranking power. More introspection. Less attempting to beat the West at their own game. More pride in being resolutely Chinese. An end to the "cultural cringe." Expect Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism to be the dominant philosophical triptych in dynamic tension again. I could be very wrong of course, but I'm reasonably optimistic.
I like your optimism.
Remember, though, that previous Chinese leaderships served for a decade. Xi decided he didn't want that, and is now effectively President for Life.
It's not optimism, it is delusional nonsense
China is not going to be content as a "mid ranking power". That is beyond farcical
Try telling Americans they must be more like Canada or Portugal or Indonesia in their expectations of the world, and the respect their country demands
For most of recorded human history, China has been the biggest economic power, with India close behind at times. This is just a reversion to the mean. The era of western supremacy was the aberration. China has that self-image in its DNA
In about 1985 it was expected by many that Japan would become one of the world's biggest superpowers due to their economic miracle. Sometimes "the obvious" doesn't happen.
People even claimed Japan would overtake America. And that was always a stupid prediction. Japan has a population of 125m (now falling), America 330m+. Japan is a small archipelago compared to the mighty USA. Japan has few natural resources, America has endless, and so on
This is very different
China is just as big as America (oddly similar in size, in fact), has a population four times as large, has a cultural weight just as big as the USA (in Asia, at least), and it has vast natural resources. And it also has cultural self-confidence, unlike America, right now, and China has the eagerness and the education
It is will take a black swan of huge proportions to stop China supplanting America as top dog, but black swans happen, as Covid shows. Let the die fall
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
They are the Chinese Communist Party. But you can't be all three successfully. Mao tried to be not Chinese. Deng by not being Communist. Xi is trying all three. But the contradictions are inherent. There are other factions. They are keeping their heads down, but, it must be apparent to even the thickest that the present road isn't sustainable. Push will come to shove. But it won't be the fall of China. The population is literate, reasonably well-educated, and, for the time being at least, enormous. With a heck of a lot to be proud of to be frank. Moreover, there is little centripetal force. Power remains in the Eastern cities. If, and when, the property market implodes, my bet is this. Xi is quietly retired. A new generation takes over. They promote "traditional Chinese values". An end to rapacious Capitalism, and ostentatious consumerism and settle as a role as a mid-ranking power. More introspection. Less attempting to beat the West at their own game. More pride in being resolutely Chinese. An end to the "cultural cringe." Expect Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism to be the dominant philosophical triptych in dynamic tension again. I could be very wrong of course, but I'm reasonably optimistic.
I like your optimism.
Remember, though, that previous Chinese leaderships served for a decade. Xi decided he didn't want that, and is now effectively President for Life.
It's not optimism, it is delusional nonsense
China is not going to be content as a "mid ranking power". That is beyond farcical
Try telling Americans they must be more like Canada or Portugal or Indonesia in their expectations of the world, and the respect their country demands
For most of recorded human history, China has been the biggest economic power, with India close behind at times. This is just a reversion to the mean. The era of western supremacy was the aberration. China has that self-image in its DNA
In about 1985 it was expected by many that Japan would become one of the world's biggest superpowers due to their economic miracle. Sometimes "the obvious" doesn't happen.
Yes. And that is where I see China going. With a rise of a distinctly and proudly Chinese aesthetic and cultural tradition. They become one of the big players. Impossible to ignore, but no threat.
This is the very definition of "hopecasting". This is what you hope will happen, despite all the evidence against
But it is too late for a PB stramash. I really must abed. And watch The Great, which is still great!
OT the BBC2 documentary, The Hunt for Bible John, is given over mainly to how awful were the Glasgow tenements of the 1960s, even worse than Liverpool according to one woman, and as dangerous as mob-era Chicago.
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
They are the Chinese Communist Party. But you can't be all three successfully. Mao tried to be not Chinese. Deng by not being Communist. Xi is trying all three. But the contradictions are inherent. There are other factions. They are keeping their heads down, but, it must be apparent to even the thickest that the present road isn't sustainable. Push will come to shove. But it won't be the fall of China. The population is literate, reasonably well-educated, and, for the time being at least, enormous. With a heck of a lot to be proud of to be frank. Moreover, there is little centripetal force. Power remains in the Eastern cities. If, and when, the property market implodes, my bet is this. Xi is quietly retired. A new generation takes over. They promote "traditional Chinese values". An end to rapacious Capitalism, and ostentatious consumerism and settle as a role as a mid-ranking power. More introspection. Less attempting to beat the West at their own game. More pride in being resolutely Chinese. An end to the "cultural cringe." Expect Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism to be the dominant philosophical triptych in dynamic tension again. I could be very wrong of course, but I'm reasonably optimistic.
I like your optimism.
Remember, though, that previous Chinese leaderships served for a decade. Xi decided he didn't want that, and is now effectively President for Life.
It's not optimism, it is delusional nonsense
China is not going to be content as a "mid ranking power". That is beyond farcical
Try telling Americans they must be more like Canada or Portugal or Indonesia in their expectations of the world, and the respect their country demands
For most of recorded human history, China has been the biggest economic power, with India close behind at times. This is just a reversion to the mean. The era of western supremacy was the aberration. China has that self-image in its DNA
In about 1985 it was expected by many that Japan would become one of the world's biggest superpowers due to their economic miracle. Sometimes "the obvious" doesn't happen.
People even claimed Japan would overtake America. And that was always a stupid prediction. Japan has a population of 125m (now falling), America 330m+. Japan is a small archipelago compared to the mighty USA. Japan has few natural resources, America has endless, and so on
This is very different
China is just as big as America (oddly similar in size, in fact), has a population four times as large, has a cultural weight just as big as the USA (in Asia, at least), and it has vast natural resources. And it also has cultural self-confidence, unlike America, right now, and China has the eagerness and the education
It is will take a black swan of huge proportions to stop China supplanting America as top dog, but black swans happen, as Covid shows. Let the die fall
No large country can reach high income status on a sustainable basis without becoming free. The only autocracies that get rich do it by being city states (where you are small enough that skimming off the top of world trade flows makes a big difference) or petrostates (which will collapse when we move beyond oil). As the Chinese ruling class is not willing to become democratic, they will stagnate in upper middle income status. At that point they will whip up Han nationalism to maintain power, at the expense of their minority populations. By the time they work through the mess that will cause, their population size will be collapsing rapidly.
No free LFTs there. Pharmacies breaking open multipacks and selling them for A$25 each. Massive queues for PCRs and then days waiting for results. I think we have taken for granted the success of the build out of testing capacity in the UK.
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
They are the Chinese Communist Party. But you can't be all three successfully. Mao tried to be not Chinese. Deng by not being Communist. Xi is trying all three. But the contradictions are inherent. There are other factions. They are keeping their heads down, but, it must be apparent to even the thickest that the present road isn't sustainable. Push will come to shove. But it won't be the fall of China. The population is literate, reasonably well-educated, and, for the time being at least, enormous. With a heck of a lot to be proud of to be frank. Moreover, there is little centripetal force. Power remains in the Eastern cities. If, and when, the property market implodes, my bet is this. Xi is quietly retired. A new generation takes over. They promote "traditional Chinese values". An end to rapacious Capitalism, and ostentatious consumerism and settle as a role as a mid-ranking power. More introspection. Less attempting to beat the West at their own game. More pride in being resolutely Chinese. An end to the "cultural cringe." Expect Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism to be the dominant philosophical triptych in dynamic tension again. I could be very wrong of course, but I'm reasonably optimistic.
I like your optimism.
Remember, though, that previous Chinese leaderships served for a decade. Xi decided he didn't want that, and is now effectively President for Life.
It's not optimism, it is delusional nonsense
China is not going to be content as a "mid ranking power". That is beyond farcical
Try telling Americans they must be more like Canada or Portugal or Indonesia in their expectations of the world, and the respect their country demands
For most of recorded human history, China has been the biggest economic power, with India close behind at times. This is just a reversion to the mean. The era of western supremacy was the aberration. China has that self-image in its DNA
In about 1985 it was expected by many that Japan would become one of the world's biggest superpowers due to their economic miracle. Sometimes "the obvious" doesn't happen.
People even claimed Japan would overtake America. And that was always a stupid prediction. Japan has a population of 125m (now falling), America 330m+. Japan is a small archipelago compared to the mighty USA. Japan has few natural resources, America has endless, and so on
This is very different
China is just as big as America (oddly similar in size, in fact), has a population four times as large, has a cultural weight just as big as the USA (in Asia, at least), and it has vast natural resources. And it also has cultural self-confidence, unlike America, right now, and China has the eagerness and the education
It is will take a black swan of huge proportions to stop China supplanting America as top dog, but black swans happen, as Covid shows. Let the die fall
No large country can reach high income status on a sustainable basis without becoming free. The only autocracies that get rich do it by being city states (where you are small enough that skimming off the top of world trade flows makes a big difference) or petrostates (which will collapse when we move beyond oil). As the Chinese ruling class is not willing to become democratic, they will stagnate in upper middle income status. At that point they will whip up Han nationalism to maintain power, at the expense of their minority populations. By the time they work through the mess that will cause, their population size will be collapsing rapidly.
China is proving that this is more wishful thinking. Singapore has led the way. A fairly strict one party autocracy, quasi democratic, but capitalist. Now enormously wealthy. China follows
If anything democracy looks weaker, now. Unable to cope with self-loathing accusations of racism, it crumbles in self confidence. All the great western democracies - England, France, America - the core of ‘the West’ - are now riven and roiled. France could fall to the far right. The UK could split. America is closer to actual civil war than at any time in a century
No free LFTs there. Pharmacies breaking open multipacks and selling them for A$25 each. Massive queues for PCRs and then days waiting for results. I think we have taken for granted the success of the build out of testing capacity in the UK.
The UK government continue to get grief over testing when it really isn't fair. Plenty to have a go at the government over COVID decisions, but testing and vaccinations are genuinely up there with the best in the world.
Initially yes, PHE nonsense of we can't do it and the decision to only basically test people being hospitalised was a very poor decision. But since then, it has been generally very good, and far far better than every other country of any size.
I am shocked over Christmas / New Year the testing system didn't totally meltdown. I am sure it was very close to it, the elastic was clearly really really stretched, but it still managed to continue to do 1.5 million tests a day (not that you would know from all the media often misreporting about the situation). But compare to Germany, we all remember when the media couldn't get enough of telling us the UK should be like them when it came to testing, well they basically they just shut down over the holidays.
Should the government has perhaps rationed LFT leading up to Christmas, to ensure people weren't hoarding loads and doing multiple ones a day, probably. But then they would have got grief if they did that too.
No free LFTs there. Pharmacies breaking open multipacks and selling them for A$25 each. Massive queues for PCRs and then days waiting for results. I think we have taken for granted the success of the build out of testing capacity in the UK.
Some of the criticism of the UK's response domestically is baffling to outsiders, given how well the UK has done relatively on a broad array of key public health measures, such as testing, genotyping, vaccination, and data collection and analysis.
No free LFTs there. Pharmacies breaking open multipacks and selling them for A$25 each. Massive queues for PCRs and then days waiting for results. I think we have taken for granted the success of the build out of testing capacity in the UK.
Some of the criticism of the UK's response domestically is baffling to outsiders, given how well the UK has done relatively on a broad array of key public health measures, such as testing, genotyping, vaccination, and data collection and analysis.
The media have been incredibly negative on everything when it comes to COVID. There really isn't any balance. I doubt most of the UK public even have any real concept of the scale of testing versus other countries, they probably still think we should be more like Germany.
No free LFTs there. Pharmacies breaking open multipacks and selling them for A$25 each. Massive queues for PCRs and then days waiting for results. I think we have taken for granted the success of the build out of testing capacity in the UK.
The UK government continue to get grief over testing when it really isn't fair. Plenty to have a go at the government over COVID decisions, but testing and vaccinations are genuinely up there with the best in the world.
Initially yes, PHE nonsense of we can't do it and the decision to only basically test people being hospitalised was a very poor decision. But since then, it has been generally very good, and far far better than every other country of any size.
I am shocked over Christmas / New Year the testing system didn't totally meltdown. I am sure it was very close to it, the elastic was clearly really really stretched, but it still managed to continue to do 1.5 million tests a day (not that you would know from all the media often misreporting about the situation). But compare to Germany, we all remember when the media couldn't get enough of telling us the UK should be like them when it came to testing, well they basically they just shut down over the holidays.
Should the government has perhaps rationed LFT leading up to Christmas, to ensure people weren't hoarding loads and doing multiple ones a day, probably. But then they would have got grief if they did that too.
It was reported HMG sent 2.5 million tests to a distributor on the day they stopped for Christmas so they just sat in a warehouse rather than being sent to pharmacies.
At risk of sounding like a broken record, we could cut demand for tests by following the US CDC recommendation of only five days' isolation (and more importantly this would also cut staff shortages).
Where we can criticise the government is that it ramped up demand for tests, with Boris telling us to test before meeting family for Christmas, without first ensuring adequate supply.
No free LFTs there. Pharmacies breaking open multipacks and selling them for A$25 each. Massive queues for PCRs and then days waiting for results. I think we have taken for granted the success of the build out of testing capacity in the UK.
The UK government continue to get grief over testing when it really isn't fair. Plenty to have a go at the government over COVID decisions, but testing and vaccinations are genuinely up there with the best in the world.
Initially yes, PHE nonsense of we can't do it and the decision to only basically test people being hospitalised was a very poor decision. But since then, it has been generally very good, and far far better than every other country of any size.
I am shocked over Christmas / New Year the testing system didn't totally meltdown. I am sure it was very close to it, the elastic was clearly really really stretched, but it still managed to continue to do 1.5 million tests a day (not that you would know from all the media often misreporting about the situation). But compare to Germany, we all remember when the media couldn't get enough of telling us the UK should be like them when it came to testing, well they basically they just shut down over the holidays.
Should the government has perhaps rationed LFT leading up to Christmas, to ensure people weren't hoarding loads and doing multiple ones a day, probably. But then they would have got grief if they did that too.
It was reported HMG sent 2.5 million tests to a distributor on the day they stopped for Christmas so they just sat in a warehouse rather than being sent to pharmacies.
At risk of sounding like a broken record, we could cut demand for tests by following the US CDC recommendation of only five days' isolation (and more importantly this would also cut staff shortages).
Where we can criticise the government is that it ramped up demand for tests, with Boris telling us to test before meeting family for Christmas, without first ensuring adequate supply.
The problem was when you give things for free people take the piss. People weren't just testing before they went for meeting family for Christmas, they were testing every day regardless of what they were doing, some multiple times a day.
I would ask why the f##k were the distributor closing for 4 days over Christmas. Its a national emergency.....The likes of Amazon or the food retailers won't have been closed for 4 days that's for certain.
Don't disagree on the point about cutting isolation. Seems like missing an open goal. Yesterdays announcement would have been much more sensible to announce such a policy.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
But the ability, capacity and willingness to reverse it will diminish, over time, on both sides. Few divorces end in remarriage even if both sides regret it
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
Moving in stages with a long period in a Norway/Switzerland position is the most likely path - with a decision point at some future date that, since we are following all the rules, we may as well set them. Although it is notable that both Norwegians and Swiss reject the final step, even when their politicians (in the former case) are sometimes interested.
A more convincing argument is that they will be very wary about taking us back.
Yes. I think this is an often under appreciated point. The EU would need some guarantee we are in for the long term. And no Parliament can bind it's successors. So, the prospect of Rejoin winning an election followed by Leave five years later would be reason enough to stop our hokey cokey.
The counter argument is that it would be a visible, and hopefully final, admission that Brexit has been a failure.
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
Don't think so - they are locked into international trade, and doing well out of it. It's a huge country and we tend toi overinterpret news from individual bits of it, egged on by hostile Twitter accounts. It's like trying to predict the state of the USA after reading of disturbing events in Wyoming.
People tend to expect drama too much of the time. How's the invasion of Taiwan coming along?
Exactly right. People always think we're on the verge of some epoch-defining something or other, and I think it's actually a form of projected egotism. I'm special, so I must be alive during Pivotal Times
Good news from Sydney. Australia have won the toss and are batting first, which probably means the match won't be over in two and a bit days.
Oh I don't know, they bat for five sessions, get 600 odd, and then knock us over twice before tea on the third day.
Ever the optimist, Robert!
Looks like rain is going to a good job of intervening on this one. Hopefully a few days of it might see a draw, and we can avoid 5-0 written in the history books.
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
They are the Chinese Communist Party. But you can't be all three successfully. Mao tried to be not Chinese. Deng by not being Communist. Xi is trying all three. But the contradictions are inherent. There are other factions. They are keeping their heads down, but, it must be apparent to even the thickest that the present road isn't sustainable. Push will come to shove. But it won't be the fall of China. The population is literate, reasonably well-educated, and, for the time being at least, enormous. With a heck of a lot to be proud of to be frank. Moreover, there is little centripetal force. Power remains in the Eastern cities. If, and when, the property market implodes, my bet is this. Xi is quietly retired. A new generation takes over. They promote "traditional Chinese values". An end to rapacious Capitalism, and ostentatious consumerism and settle as a role as a mid-ranking power. More introspection. Less attempting to beat the West at their own game. More pride in being resolutely Chinese. An end to the "cultural cringe." Expect Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism to be the dominant philosophical triptych in dynamic tension again. I could be very wrong of course, but I'm reasonably optimistic.
I like your optimism.
Remember, though, that previous Chinese leaderships served for a decade. Xi decided he didn't want that, and is now effectively President for Life.
It's not optimism, it is delusional nonsense
China is not going to be content as a "mid ranking power". That is beyond farcical
Try telling Americans they must be more like Canada or Portugal or Indonesia in their expectations of the world, and the respect their country demands
For most of recorded human history, China has been the biggest economic power, with India close behind at times. This is just a reversion to the mean. The era of western supremacy was the aberration. China has that self-image in its DNA
In about 1985 it was expected by many that Japan would become one of the world's biggest superpowers due to their economic miracle. Sometimes "the obvious" doesn't happen.
People even claimed Japan would overtake America. And that was always a stupid prediction. Japan has a population of 125m (now falling), America 330m+. Japan is a small archipelago compared to the mighty USA. Japan has few natural resources, America has endless, and so on
This is very different
China is just as big as America (oddly similar in size, in fact), has a population four times as large, has a cultural weight just as big as the USA (in Asia, at least), and it has vast natural resources. And it also has cultural self-confidence, unlike America, right now, and China has the eagerness and the education
It is will take a black swan of huge proportions to stop China supplanting America as top dog, but black swans happen, as Covid shows. Let the die fall
A pedant notes: Japan is not a small archipelago, it is a large archipelago. Shetland is a small archipelago. Japan, by any measure, is one of the largest archipelagos in the world.
We left the EU - for reals - about 15 months ago. And in that time there's been a fairly major development that's affected the whole world.
Sorting out what is Brexit, what is Covid, etc., will take some time.
It is possible that - in a decade's time - we will have slipped far behind the continental economies, and that Brexit will look like a very costly folly. It is equally possible that we will have soared, while they have stagnated (or worse).
And it's rather more probable that most of the electorate won't take such an Olympian view at the next election. Fair or not, they will judge by the results that they see.
Comments
We've had the biggest plague in a century, twenty million dead (and counting), a revolution in how we all live, and the greatest peacetime economic collapse in 300 years, all in the last 22 months. I'm sorry that's not dramatic enough for you
Now the dominant variant is Omicron the headline figures tell us what we need to know.
Incidentally my Trust now has 254 Covid inpatients, 51% of last January's peak and up from 104 on Christmas Eve. We have 5 with RSV or Flu.
Brexit backers (in particular, ones who see themselves as pirates) are pretty clear- the government needs to be nimble, and that's why Westminster is better than Brussels. (Though curiously, Westminster is also better than Edinburgh, or Manchester, or Southampton.) But as a moderately good little Thatcherite, I'm not so sure.
Governments don't make wealth. Individuals and businesses do. And whilst that's not really my bag at all, I can see the case that what they really want is a predictable set of rules that work the same way over a wide area. Sclerotic, if you like. The exception is if the current rulers are stopping them doing something they really want to do, and they hope a different judge will give them a different verdict.
It was the Cummings vision- pump enough data quickly enough into a room with a smallish number of clever people, and the government can allocate resources in a nimble and optimal way. It was a souped-up version of the vision of Soviet technocrats in the Red Plenty era. And it works if the question is simple (how do we win a war? how do we make lots of vaccines quickly?). But most of the time, it's bonkers.
Christ. The Normalcy Bias!!!
https://endthefud.org/
For me, the interesting thing about bitcoin is it demands the cheapest energy possible. And what is the cheapest energy? Well, surplus energy that is generated via green sources, that has nowhere else to go.
Imagine, for example, setting up a massive solar farm. But you can only sell the energy from it 50% of the time, the rest of the time the surplus energy it generates is lost (e.g. because on a hot summer's day, people use their heating less).
What bitcoin does is provide a market for all that surplus energy, because bitcoin miners want the cheapest energy possible in order to maximise profits. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying bitcoin miners are paid up members of the Green Party, they would literally shovel kittens into coal power stations to produce energy if that is what made them the most possible amount of money.
But bitcoin does create massive economic incentives for new clean energy projects by providing a market for "surplus" energy that otherwise wouldn't be used.
El Salvador building a geothermal plant to harness a volcano's power to mine bitcoin is probably the most famous example, but you get the point.
We will never rejoin the EU or likely even the single market under a Conservative government unless it completely changed its voter base
It we rejoined it would be under a Labour led government, maybe with the LDs and the Tories then getting into government later and accepting that
Home of green energy?
Brexit may have a time limit however, at least in its current form and in a decade or 2 Labour may take us into a softer Brexit or even rejoin and a later Tory government then accepts that to get back into power
Andrew is even below Harry and his children with Meghan in the line of succession
But you can't be all three successfully.
Mao tried to be not Chinese.
Deng by not being Communist.
Xi is trying all three. But the contradictions are inherent. There are other factions. They are keeping their heads down, but, it must be apparent to even the thickest that the present road isn't sustainable.
Push will come to shove. But it won't be the fall of China. The population is literate, reasonably well-educated, and, for the time being at least, enormous. With a heck of a lot to be proud of to be frank. Moreover, there is little centripetal force. Power remains in the Eastern cities.
If, and when, the property market implodes, my bet is this. Xi is quietly retired. A new generation takes over. They promote "traditional Chinese values". An end to rapacious Capitalism, and ostentatious consumerism and settle as a role as a mid-ranking power.
More introspection. Less attempting to beat the West at their own game. More pride in being resolutely Chinese. An end to the "cultural cringe."
Expect Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism to be the dominant philosophical triptych in dynamic tension again.
I could be very wrong of course, but I'm reasonably optimistic.
Remember, though, that previous Chinese leaderships served for a decade. Xi decided he didn't want that, and is now effectively President for Life.
By the nature of China's demographic and geographic size and its incredible weight in Asian societies, AND its huge diaspora, it will be a superpower whatever happens, the only question is whether it becomes THE superpower, a kind of hegemon - an Asian America - at least for a while
I reckon it will make it to that status, with America sniping away, but then other forces will prevail, as always. I don't believe China wants all-out war with the West - that means mutual destruction - but it is certainly prepared to push us to the edge. It has just swallowed Hong Kong. I predict it will swallow Taiwan. Hopefully it will stop there
China is not going to be content as a "mid ranking power". That is beyond farcical
Try telling Americans they must be more like Canada or Portugal or Indonesia in their expectations of the world, and the respect their country demands
For most of recorded human history, China has been the biggest economic power, with India close behind at times. This is just a reversion to the mean. The era of western supremacy was the aberration. China has that self-image in its DNA
It is overtaking the West on almost every metric (except, sadly, freedom and free speech, but even their our supremacy is questionable. Wokeness?).
The trajectory is set in stone. China will rise to number 1 status - whatever we do. But that doesn't mean we have to kneel before it. If the Free World unites, it will be a match for, if not stronger than, China, in most foreseeable circumstances
And China is surrounded by enemies that fear or resent her. Which will always wall her in, to an extent
But "mid-ranking power"? lol
Night night, PB, night night
This was a huge psychic shock. Equivalent to being visited by aliens as it were.
They don't have this inferiority complex anymore.
Tens of millions of Chinese have studied overseas now. They have learned they are just as capable if not more so than the West. They have the tech.
But Westerners don't seem to be any happier. In fact, possibly less so.
So. Why not take the best of the West. And combine it with Chinese philosophy and religion?
Ours hasn't.led to much after all.
And, I do accept I could be very wrong here.
Could we actually manage a draw in one of the matches???
The era of China as a humbled broken place is over (as you note) the Chinese will not allow it to return. And their sheer size (and culture and education and all the rest) guarantees they will be number 1, or equal number 1. Citizens enjoy it when their country rules the world. Britons did, for a century or so; Americans have done the same, for another century
Will it be a Chinese century? I have my doubts. But we are definitely set for some Chinese decades, at the least
This is very different
China is just as big as America (oddly similar in size, in fact), has a population four times as large, has a cultural weight just as big as the USA (in Asia, at least), and it has vast natural resources. And it also has cultural self-confidence, unlike America, right now, and China has the eagerness and the education
It is will take a black swan of huge proportions to stop China supplanting America as top dog, but black swans happen, as Covid shows. Let the die fall
But it is too late for a PB stramash. I really must abed. And watch The Great, which is still great!
A demain
No free LFTs there. Pharmacies breaking open multipacks and selling them for A$25 each. Massive queues for PCRs and then days waiting for results. I think we have taken for granted the success of the build out of testing capacity in the UK.
If anything democracy looks weaker, now. Unable to cope with self-loathing accusations of racism, it crumbles in self confidence. All the great western democracies - England, France, America - the core of ‘the West’ - are now riven and roiled. France could fall to the far right. The UK could split. America is closer to actual civil war than at any time in a century
Initially yes, PHE nonsense of we can't do it and the decision to only basically test people being hospitalised was a very poor decision. But since then, it has been generally very good, and far far better than every other country of any size.
I am shocked over Christmas / New Year the testing system didn't totally meltdown. I am sure it was very close to it, the elastic was clearly really really stretched, but it still managed to continue to do 1.5 million tests a day (not that you would know from all the media often misreporting about the situation). But compare to Germany, we all remember when the media couldn't get enough of telling us the UK should be like them when it came to testing, well they basically they just shut down over the holidays.
Should the government has perhaps rationed LFT leading up to Christmas, to ensure people weren't hoarding loads and doing multiple ones a day, probably. But then they would have got grief if they did that too.
At risk of sounding like a broken record, we could cut demand for tests by following the US CDC recommendation of only five days' isolation (and more importantly this would also cut staff shortages).
Where we can criticise the government is that it ramped up demand for tests, with Boris telling us to test before meeting family for Christmas, without first ensuring adequate supply.
I would ask why the f##k were the distributor closing for 4 days over Christmas. Its a national emergency.....The likes of Amazon or the food retailers won't have been closed for 4 days that's for certain.
Don't disagree on the point about cutting isolation. Seems like missing an open goal. Yesterdays announcement would have been much more sensible to announce such a policy.
Looks like rain is going to a good job of intervening on this one. Hopefully a few days of it might see a draw, and we can avoid 5-0 written in the history books.
"The UK is a mid tier performer in the lower cohort of the top 20 performers"
That is a very negative way of saying 14th in the world. (and 1st of nations with over 50m population)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10368753/Sir-Patrick-Vallance-reveals-Covid-vaccine-drive-eventually-settle-routine-programme.html
Fair or not, they will judge by the results that they see.