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Even the Telegraph is getting impatient to see the benefits of Brexit – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 4 in General
Even the Telegraph is getting impatient to see the benefits of Brexit – politicalbetting.com

“It’s not just that the benefits of Brexit have so far proved elusive. It’s worse… The initial impact, from chaos with customs checks and a heavy blow to business investment, has been almost overwhelmingly negative.” Striking from ?@Telegraph? https://t.co/S5vd0Mvbjs

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,175
    James Chapman? Wasn’t he being held captive or something?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446
    Brexit benefits

    UAPs

    Interesting and musically talented songs by the Beatles
  • eekeek Posts: 17,262
    When people ask for the benefits the first thing to ask is what were they expecting the benefits to be?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,478
    tlg86 said:

    James Chapman? Wasn’t he being held captive or something?

    Much like Johnson then.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,274
    edited January 4
    That linked Telegraph piece also uses the hated (by me) form, one year anniversary:-
    The big prize remains an agreement with America but as the one-year anniversary of Joe Biden’s inauguration approaches, a transatlantic tie-up remains as far beyond our reach as ever.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/04/time-running-prove-brexit-not-historic-failure/ (£££)
  • eekeek Posts: 17,262
    In other news

    Ben Kelly
    @TheScepticIsle
    ·
    4m
    Police cars revolving lightBREAKINGPolice cars revolving light

    Prince Andrew ‘NOT entitled’ to bring up accuser’s $500k Jeffrey Epstein deal in court

    image
  • eekeek Posts: 17,262
    rcs1000 said:

    We left the EU - for reals - about 15 months ago. And in that time there's been a fairly major development that's affected the whole world.

    Sorting out what is Brexit, what is Covid, etc., will take some time.

    It is possible that - in a decade's time - we will have slipped far behind the continental economies, and that Brexit will look like a very costly folly. It is equally possible that we will have soared, while they have stagnated (or worse).

    Well given that the Tories have l ready scaled back the infrastructure investment that offered a chance for things to approve I’m not holiding out much hope.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446
    eek said:

    In other news

    Ben Kelly
    @TheScepticIsle
    ·
    4m
    Police cars revolving lightBREAKINGPolice cars revolving light

    Prince Andrew ‘NOT entitled’ to bring up accuser’s $500k Jeffrey Epstein deal in court

    image

    AS I FORETOLD YOU
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,904
    eek said:

    In other news

    Ben Kelly
    @TheScepticIsle
    ·
    4m
    Police cars revolving lightBREAKINGPolice cars revolving light

    Prince Andrew ‘NOT entitled’ to bring up accuser’s $500k Jeffrey Epstein deal in court

    image

    Thank goodness he got over the sweating thing. Idiot.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735
    rcs1000 said:

    We left the EU - for reals - about 15 months ago. And in that time there's been a fairly major development that's affected the whole world.

    Sorting out what is Brexit, what is Covid, etc., will take some time.

    It is possible that - in a decade's time - we will have slipped far behind the continental economies, and that Brexit will look like a very costly folly. It is equally possible that we will have soared, while they have stagnated (or worse).

    That graph about fading British exports is quite striking, however, in comparison to our peers

    The big story is immigration, however. If HMG can't get a grip on the Channel then they have literally "lost control" of the borders and many Leavers will think Fuck it, what WAS the point?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    edited January 4
    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    In other news

    Ben Kelly
    @TheScepticIsle
    ·
    4m
    Police cars revolving lightBREAKINGPolice cars revolving light

    Prince Andrew ‘NOT entitled’ to bring up accuser’s $500k Jeffrey Epstein deal in court

    image

    AS I FORETOLD YOU
    That was the argument of the prosecution, not the judge.

    edit: I mean that the ruling hasn't yet been made.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,904
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    We left the EU - for reals - about 15 months ago. And in that time there's been a fairly major development that's affected the whole world.

    Sorting out what is Brexit, what is Covid, etc., will take some time.

    It is possible that - in a decade's time - we will have slipped far behind the continental economies, and that Brexit will look like a very costly folly. It is equally possible that we will have soared, while they have stagnated (or worse).

    That graph about fading British exports is quite striking, however, in comparison to our peers

    The big story is immigration, however. If HMG can't get a grip on the Channel then they have literally "lost control" of the borders and many Leavers will think Fuck it, what WAS the point?
    That is equally absurd. The immigration issue was the right to free movement in the EU. No one ever pretended that it was going to solve illegal immigration which was an issue when we were members. It is simply irrelevant to that issue.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    edited January 4

    That linked Telegraph piece also uses the hated (by me) form, one year anniversary:-
    The big prize remains an agreement with America but as the one-year anniversary of Joe Biden’s inauguration approaches, a transatlantic tie-up remains as far beyond our reach as ever.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/04/time-running-prove-brexit-not-historic-failure/ (£££)

    No it doesn't, Leave voters voted to regain sovereignty, end free movement and leave the CFP. All achieved. Very few of them voted for a trade deal with the USA
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,144
    Macron’s covid strategy; piss off the unvaccinated. (It’s a quote)

    Id love to see the vaccinated/ voter intention correlation on this

    https://twitter.com/mariatad/status/1478472234889093128
    https://twitter.com/nicolasberrod/status/1478456757970251778
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,274
    RobD said:
    Not to mention it has sod all to do with betting on politics (or racing, football, cricket and F1).
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446
    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    In other news

    Ben Kelly
    @TheScepticIsle
    ·
    4m
    Police cars revolving lightBREAKINGPolice cars revolving light

    Prince Andrew ‘NOT entitled’ to bring up accuser’s $500k Jeffrey Epstein deal in court

    image

    AS I FORETOLD YOU
    That was the argument of the prosecution, not the judge.

    edit: I mean that the ruling hasn't yet been made.
    Ah OK, but wtf is the point of this tweet or of posting it here?

    I'm still right anyway. Wait n see.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,391
    DavidL said:

    Anyone who claims that they can identify any economic effect of Brexit for good or ill at the present time is delusional. We have gone through storm Arwen and have worse to come and we are arguing about a gentle offshore breeze. It’s absurd.

    What does the mountain of red tape throttling our trade have to do with Arwen? And aren't you Tories the people who spent decades working to remove said red tape?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,274
    HYUFD said:

    That linked Telegraph piece also uses the hated (by me) form, one year anniversary:-
    The big prize remains an agreement with America but as the one-year anniversary of Joe Biden’s inauguration approaches, a transatlantic tie-up remains as far beyond our reach as ever.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/04/time-running-prove-brexit-not-historic-failure/ (£££)

    No it doesn't, Leave voters voted to regain sovereignty, end free movement and leave the CFP. All achieved. Very few of them voted for a trade deal with the USA
    Then you mean "yes it does but it's irrelevant". And Leave voters voted to leave. That is all that was on the ballot paper, and since David Cameron had omitted to force a single, coherent Leave position, that is all that could be.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446

    DavidL said:

    Anyone who claims that they can identify any economic effect of Brexit for good or ill at the present time is delusional. We have gone through storm Arwen and have worse to come and we are arguing about a gentle offshore breeze. It’s absurd.

    What does the mountain of red tape throttling our trade have to do with Arwen? And aren't you Tories the people who spent decades working to remove said red tape?
    metturfur innit
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    edited January 4
    HYUFD said:

    That linked Telegraph piece also uses the hated (by me) form, one year anniversary:-
    The big prize remains an agreement with America but as the one-year anniversary of Joe Biden’s inauguration approaches, a transatlantic tie-up remains as far beyond our reach as ever.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/04/time-running-prove-brexit-not-historic-failure/ (£££)

    No it doesn't, Leave voters voted to regain sovereignty, end free movement and leave the CFP. All achieved. Very few of them voted for a trade deal with the USA
    They did, however, do so on the back of promises of “all the same benefits”, “frictionless trade” and “no border in the Irish Sea”, not to mention lots of extra dosh for the NHS achieved without having to shove up NI to pay for it. Plus a better deal for our farmers and fishermen.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,262

    DavidL said:

    Anyone who claims that they can identify any economic effect of Brexit for good or ill at the present time is delusional. We have gone through storm Arwen and have worse to come and we are arguing about a gentle offshore breeze. It’s absurd.

    What does the mountain of red tape throttling our trade have to do with Arwen? And aren't you Tories the people who spent decades working to remove said red tape?
    Red tape can be automated or at least that’s what my MP has continually told me
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,391
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    We left the EU - for reals - about 15 months ago. And in that time there's been a fairly major development that's affected the whole world.

    Sorting out what is Brexit, what is Covid, etc., will take some time.

    It is possible that - in a decade's time - we will have slipped far behind the continental economies, and that Brexit will look like a very costly folly. It is equally possible that we will have soared, while they have stagnated (or worse).

    That graph about fading British exports is quite striking, however, in comparison to our peers

    The big story is immigration, however. If HMG can't get a grip on the Channel then they have literally "lost control" of the borders and many Leavers will think Fuck it, what WAS the point?
    That is equally absurd. The immigration issue was the right to free movement in the EU. No one ever pretended that it was going to solve illegal immigration which was an issue when we were members. It is simply irrelevant to that issue.
    Endless vox pops of people voting to stop asylum seekers and refugees. Others because too many pakistanis and muslims. You and I know thats irrelevant, but thats what they said they were voting for.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,932
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I see we are back to hysterical conspiracy theories about Xian on here.

    Jesus wept. It’s the Olympics. Move on FFS.

    Look, I know that you are shitting yourself, like Topping and Ian, but I can't help the fact a genuine mystery is unfolding in Xi'an. Which is probably Omicron, but possibly not

    And it's not like this isn't a major news story (whatever the cause) - if they have Omicron and they can't control it - or they need to lockdown large chunks of China to do so - that is going to have serious consequences for the global economy, as supply chains fail, again. So we can't really "move on"
    Two possible scenarios:

    1) The several people trying to reply rationally and calmly to one person's hysterical outpourings are shitting themselves; or
    2) The one person responsible for said hysterical outpouring is shitting himself.

    Tough call. Or are we all projecting.
    You lot always miss the bigger picture. Let’s take the benign version. This is just omicron. That China is taking these steps in Xian indicates they may very likely be prepared to announce a nationwide lockdown before Chinese New Year, given we all probably agree it’s a bugger to contain it once it’s out there.

    What we know of the underlying virulence of omicron says that this might all be unjustified but it’s tricky to say for sure given we haven’t seen it properly in action in a country with no immunity and little in the way of western approved vaccines.

    A Chinese nationwide lockdown most likely causes a global recession this year.

    There are less benign versions of this story than a global recession this year, whether you want to hear them or not.

    Sure, VHF is endemic in Shanxi. But only strains that spread from rodents to humans.
    We shall have to wait and see. But yes I hold my hand up as I for one didn't at first buy into the whole aliens thing and I am ashamed of that.
    Well we still don’t know enough about UAP to equate them with aliens, however much some of us might think the evidence points that way. What almost all of you refused to take on board, now underlined by the new Congressional legislation passed last week (Gillibrand Amendment to the National Defense Authorisation Act), is that the organs of power in the US are taking UAPs very seriously indeed. Even as you lot laugh it all off.
    I think they're taking it seriously because it's a tactical ruse of their own making. We're going to see lots of extraordinary stories as the USA desperately tries to cling on to its world dominance. They're not going to drift into genteel insignificance the way that Britain did.
    That’s quite the conspiracy theory, given the breadth of politicians and military officials across both time and the left-right spectrum that would need to be involved. Could be you’re right of course. Or could be that when such a range of credible figures say there is observed ultra tech in the skies and oceans that’s not theirs and “needs advances in science to identify”, that we should take what they say at face value.

    I don’t follow US politics as closely as some here but can’t be often that an initiative that is apparently opposed by the Executive, passes both houses in such an overwhelming bipartisan fashion.
    I’m much more sympathetic to your position than many on here, as you know, however your argument here doesn’t quite stand. Because ANY explanation for UAP is going to sound outlandish, will give off conspiracy theory vibes, and will encounter Normalcy Bias

    To name the most prominent:

    1. The entire US military has been suffering multiple simultaneous technical glitches and mass hallucinations for decades and no one in power in America realises this

    2. The elite in America have gone collectively and weirdly mad in exactly the same way, across the political spectrum, as they face the superiority of China, or something

    3. The Chinese have developed incredible 30,000mph aircraft, which also go underwater, and they’ve managed to keep this quiet since 1950

    4. We are being visited and observed by non-human technology

    Which is more, or less, likely? They are all extremely difficult to swallow
    No they aren't. The US is constantly trying these sorts of silly stunts - during the Arab Spring protests there are 'signs and wonders' on film, such as the four horsemen of the apocalypse appearing during one of the protests, and (affaicr) the Holy Spirit appearing as a dove above a Church in Egypt. All extremely unsubtle holographic projections. This is just more of the same. Unless you think an advanced race of aliens has travelled thousands of lightyears (or whatever it is) to appear as some blobs of light giving US sailors a turn.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    In other news

    Ben Kelly
    @TheScepticIsle
    ·
    4m
    Police cars revolving lightBREAKINGPolice cars revolving light

    Prince Andrew ‘NOT entitled’ to bring up accuser’s $500k Jeffrey Epstein deal in court

    image

    AS I FORETOLD YOU
    That was the argument of the prosecution, not the judge.

    edit: I mean that the ruling hasn't yet been made.
    Ah OK, but wtf is the point of this tweet or of posting it here?

    I'm still right anyway. Wait n see.
    Given the fact there was a fake photo attached I'm not sure the source is all that reliable, or worth mentioning here. Just more twitter bollocks.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,395

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I see we are back to hysterical conspiracy theories about Xian on here.

    Jesus wept. It’s the Olympics. Move on FFS.

    Look, I know that you are shitting yourself, like Topping and Ian, but I can't help the fact a genuine mystery is unfolding in Xi'an. Which is probably Omicron, but possibly not

    And it's not like this isn't a major news story (whatever the cause) - if they have Omicron and they can't control it - or they need to lockdown large chunks of China to do so - that is going to have serious consequences for the global economy, as supply chains fail, again. So we can't really "move on"
    Two possible scenarios:

    1) The several people trying to reply rationally and calmly to one person's hysterical outpourings are shitting themselves; or
    2) The one person responsible for said hysterical outpouring is shitting himself.

    Tough call. Or are we all projecting.
    You lot always miss the bigger picture. Let’s take the benign version. This is just omicron. That China is taking these steps in Xian indicates they may very likely be prepared to announce a nationwide lockdown before Chinese New Year, given we all probably agree it’s a bugger to contain it once it’s out there.

    What we know of the underlying virulence of omicron says that this might all be unjustified but it’s tricky to say for sure given we haven’t seen it properly in action in a country with no immunity and little in the way of western approved vaccines.

    A Chinese nationwide lockdown most likely causes a global recession this year.

    There are less benign versions of this story than a global recession this year, whether you want to hear them or not.

    Sure, VHF is endemic in Shanxi. But only strains that spread from rodents to humans.
    We shall have to wait and see. But yes I hold my hand up as I for one didn't at first buy into the whole aliens thing and I am ashamed of that.
    Well we still don’t know enough about UAP to equate them with aliens, however much some of us might think the evidence points that way. What almost all of you refused to take on board, now underlined by the new Congressional legislation passed last week (Gillibrand Amendment to the National Defense Authorisation Act), is that the organs of power in the US are taking UAPs very seriously indeed. Even as you lot laugh it all off.
    I think they're taking it seriously because it's a tactical ruse of their own making. We're going to see lots of extraordinary stories as the USA desperately tries to cling on to its world dominance. They're not going to drift into genteel insignificance the way that Britain did.
    That’s quite the conspiracy theory, given the breadth of politicians and military officials across both time and the left-right spectrum that would need to be involved. Could be you’re right of course. Or could be that when such a range of credible figures say there is observed ultra tech in the skies and oceans that’s not theirs and “needs advances in science to identify”, that we should take what they say at face value.

    I don’t follow US politics as closely as some here but can’t be often that an initiative that is apparently opposed by the Executive, passes both houses in such an overwhelming bipartisan fashion.
    I’m much more sympathetic to your position than many on here, as you know, however your argument here doesn’t quite stand. Because ANY explanation for UAP is going to sound outlandish, will give off conspiracy theory vibes, and will encounter Normalcy Bias

    To name the most prominent:

    1. The entire US military has been suffering multiple simultaneous technical glitches and mass hallucinations for decades and no one in power in America realises this

    2. The elite in America have gone collectively and weirdly mad in exactly the same way, across the political spectrum, as they face the superiority of China, or something

    3. The Chinese have developed incredible 30,000mph aircraft, which also go underwater, and they’ve managed to keep this quiet since 1950

    4. We are being visited and observed by non-human technology

    Which is more, or less, likely? They are all extremely difficult to swallow
    No they aren't. The US is constantly trying these sorts of silly stunts - during the Arab Spring protests there are 'signs and wonders' on film, such as the four horsemen of the apocalypse appearing during one of the protests, and (affaicr) the Holy Spirit appearing as a dove above a Church in Egypt. All extremely unsubtle holographic projections. This is just more of the same. Unless you think an advanced race of aliens has travelled thousands of lightyears (or whatever it is) to appear as some blobs of light giving US sailors a turn.
    I think you would be well served in doing some further research on exactly what has been observed, by which instruments / eye witnesses and also when. You’ve moved on from the last thread of a grand conspiracy involving most of the US political elites, to one where they’ve all been hoodwinked over decades by someone re-enacting the plot of Spiderman Far From Home.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,904

    DavidL said:

    Anyone who claims that they can identify any economic effect of Brexit for good or ill at the present time is delusional. We have gone through storm Arwen and have worse to come and we are arguing about a gentle offshore breeze. It’s absurd.

    What does the mountain of red tape throttling our trade have to do with Arwen? And aren't you Tories the people who spent decades working to remove said red tape?
    Our trade is being throttled by most of our major customers being in recession or, at best, partial recovery and by disruption of supplies from China and the Far East.

    These have been massive effects and I predict that there is a lot more disruption to come. It is not paperwork, such as that required by our non EU markets both before and after we left that is causing the decline.

    Our economy also grew quite strongly this year, faster than any of the larger economies in Europe. Do I claim that is a benefit of Brexit? Will I claim it when we continue to outgrow the EU average next year? Nope. There are far more important factors at play.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I see we are back to hysterical conspiracy theories about Xian on here.

    Jesus wept. It’s the Olympics. Move on FFS.

    Look, I know that you are shitting yourself, like Topping and Ian, but I can't help the fact a genuine mystery is unfolding in Xi'an. Which is probably Omicron, but possibly not

    And it's not like this isn't a major news story (whatever the cause) - if they have Omicron and they can't control it - or they need to lockdown large chunks of China to do so - that is going to have serious consequences for the global economy, as supply chains fail, again. So we can't really "move on"
    Two possible scenarios:

    1) The several people trying to reply rationally and calmly to one person's hysterical outpourings are shitting themselves; or
    2) The one person responsible for said hysterical outpouring is shitting himself.

    Tough call. Or are we all projecting.
    You lot always miss the bigger picture. Let’s take the benign version. This is just omicron. That China is taking these steps in Xian indicates they may very likely be prepared to announce a nationwide lockdown before Chinese New Year, given we all probably agree it’s a bugger to contain it once it’s out there.

    What we know of the underlying virulence of omicron says that this might all be unjustified but it’s tricky to say for sure given we haven’t seen it properly in action in a country with no immunity and little in the way of western approved vaccines.

    A Chinese nationwide lockdown most likely causes a global recession this year.

    There are less benign versions of this story than a global recession this year, whether you want to hear them or not.

    Sure, VHF is endemic in Shanxi. But only strains that spread from rodents to humans.
    We shall have to wait and see. But yes I hold my hand up as I for one didn't at first buy into the whole aliens thing and I am ashamed of that.
    Well we still don’t know enough about UAP to equate them with aliens, however much some of us might think the evidence points that way. What almost all of you refused to take on board, now underlined by the new Congressional legislation passed last week (Gillibrand Amendment to the National Defense Authorisation Act), is that the organs of power in the US are taking UAPs very seriously indeed. Even as you lot laugh it all off.
    I think they're taking it seriously because it's a tactical ruse of their own making. We're going to see lots of extraordinary stories as the USA desperately tries to cling on to its world dominance. They're not going to drift into genteel insignificance the way that Britain did.
    That’s quite the conspiracy theory, given the breadth of politicians and military officials across both time and the left-right spectrum that would need to be involved. Could be you’re right of course. Or could be that when such a range of credible figures say there is observed ultra tech in the skies and oceans that’s not theirs and “needs advances in science to identify”, that we should take what they say at face value.

    I don’t follow US politics as closely as some here but can’t be often that an initiative that is apparently opposed by the Executive, passes both houses in such an overwhelming bipartisan fashion.
    I’m much more sympathetic to your position than many on here, as you know, however your argument here doesn’t quite stand. Because ANY explanation for UAP is going to sound outlandish, will give off conspiracy theory vibes, and will encounter Normalcy Bias

    To name the most prominent:

    1. The entire US military has been suffering multiple simultaneous technical glitches and mass hallucinations for decades and no one in power in America realises this

    2. The elite in America have gone collectively and weirdly mad in exactly the same way, across the political spectrum, as they face the superiority of China, or something

    3. The Chinese have developed incredible 30,000mph aircraft, which also go underwater, and they’ve managed to keep this quiet since 1950

    4. We are being visited and observed by non-human technology

    Which is more, or less, likely? They are all extremely difficult to swallow
    No they aren't. The US is constantly trying these sorts of silly stunts - during the Arab Spring protests there are 'signs and wonders' on film, such as the four horsemen of the apocalypse appearing during one of the protests, and (affaicr) the Holy Spirit appearing as a dove above a Church in Egypt. All extremely unsubtle holographic projections. This is just more of the same. Unless you think an advanced race of aliens has travelled thousands of lightyears (or whatever it is) to appear as some blobs of light giving US sailors a turn.
    This really isn't a remotely similar situation
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,200
    edited January 4
    It doesn't seem that implausible to me that some form of intelligence might want to see without being seen too clearly. This could apply to anyone and anything.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyone who claims that they can identify any economic effect of Brexit for good or ill at the present time is delusional. We have gone through storm Arwen and have worse to come and we are arguing about a gentle offshore breeze. It’s absurd.

    What does the mountain of red tape throttling our trade have to do with Arwen? And aren't you Tories the people who spent decades working to remove said red tape?
    Our trade is being throttled by most of our major customers being in recession or, at best, partial recovery and by disruption of supplies from China and the Far East.

    These have been massive effects and I predict that there is a lot more disruption to come. It is not paperwork, such as that required by our non EU markets both before and after we left that is causing the decline.

    Our economy also grew quite strongly this year, faster than any of the larger economies in Europe. Do I claim that is a benefit of Brexit? Will I claim it when we continue to outgrow the EU average next year? Nope. There are far more important factors at play.
    Err…that was because it fell further in the first place (or, more likely, both the larger downswing and larger recovery were because of the way we do the measuring)

    A startling statistic - since the Brexit vote, the Uk stock market is up about 5% and the US stock market up about 105%
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,932
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I see we are back to hysterical conspiracy theories about Xian on here.

    Jesus wept. It’s the Olympics. Move on FFS.

    Look, I know that you are shitting yourself, like Topping and Ian, but I can't help the fact a genuine mystery is unfolding in Xi'an. Which is probably Omicron, but possibly not

    And it's not like this isn't a major news story (whatever the cause) - if they have Omicron and they can't control it - or they need to lockdown large chunks of China to do so - that is going to have serious consequences for the global economy, as supply chains fail, again. So we can't really "move on"
    Two possible scenarios:

    1) The several people trying to reply rationally and calmly to one person's hysterical outpourings are shitting themselves; or
    2) The one person responsible for said hysterical outpouring is shitting himself.

    Tough call. Or are we all projecting.
    You lot always miss the bigger picture. Let’s take the benign version. This is just omicron. That China is taking these steps in Xian indicates they may very likely be prepared to announce a nationwide lockdown before Chinese New Year, given we all probably agree it’s a bugger to contain it once it’s out there.

    What we know of the underlying virulence of omicron says that this might all be unjustified but it’s tricky to say for sure given we haven’t seen it properly in action in a country with no immunity and little in the way of western approved vaccines.

    A Chinese nationwide lockdown most likely causes a global recession this year.

    There are less benign versions of this story than a global recession this year, whether you want to hear them or not.

    Sure, VHF is endemic in Shanxi. But only strains that spread from rodents to humans.
    We shall have to wait and see. But yes I hold my hand up as I for one didn't at first buy into the whole aliens thing and I am ashamed of that.
    Well we still don’t know enough about UAP to equate them with aliens, however much some of us might think the evidence points that way. What almost all of you refused to take on board, now underlined by the new Congressional legislation passed last week (Gillibrand Amendment to the National Defense Authorisation Act), is that the organs of power in the US are taking UAPs very seriously indeed. Even as you lot laugh it all off.
    I think they're taking it seriously because it's a tactical ruse of their own making. We're going to see lots of extraordinary stories as the USA desperately tries to cling on to its world dominance. They're not going to drift into genteel insignificance the way that Britain did.
    That’s quite the conspiracy theory, given the breadth of politicians and military officials across both time and the left-right spectrum that would need to be involved. Could be you’re right of course. Or could be that when such a range of credible figures say there is observed ultra tech in the skies and oceans that’s not theirs and “needs advances in science to identify”, that we should take what they say at face value.

    I don’t follow US politics as closely as some here but can’t be often that an initiative that is apparently opposed by the Executive, passes both houses in such an overwhelming bipartisan fashion.
    I’m much more sympathetic to your position than many on here, as you know, however your argument here doesn’t quite stand. Because ANY explanation for UAP is going to sound outlandish, will give off conspiracy theory vibes, and will encounter Normalcy Bias

    To name the most prominent:

    1. The entire US military has been suffering multiple simultaneous technical glitches and mass hallucinations for decades and no one in power in America realises this

    2. The elite in America have gone collectively and weirdly mad in exactly the same way, across the political spectrum, as they face the superiority of China, or something

    3. The Chinese have developed incredible 30,000mph aircraft, which also go underwater, and they’ve managed to keep this quiet since 1950

    4. We are being visited and observed by non-human technology

    Which is more, or less, likely? They are all extremely difficult to swallow
    No they aren't. The US is constantly trying these sorts of silly stunts - during the Arab Spring protests there are 'signs and wonders' on film, such as the four horsemen of the apocalypse appearing during one of the protests, and (affaicr) the Holy Spirit appearing as a dove above a Church in Egypt. All extremely unsubtle holographic projections. This is just more of the same. Unless you think an advanced race of aliens has travelled thousands of lightyears (or whatever it is) to appear as some blobs of light giving US sailors a turn.
    I think you would be well served in doing some further research on exactly what has been observed, by which instruments / eye witnesses and also when. You’ve moved on from the last thread of a grand conspiracy involving most of the US political elites, to one where they’ve all been hoodwinked over decades by someone re-enacting the plot of Spiderman Far From Home.
    You can drop a Google on the 'signs and wonders' videos for yourself if you so desire. Unless you're putting those down to ET too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    We left the EU - for reals - about 15 months ago. And in that time there's been a fairly major development that's affected the whole world.

    Sorting out what is Brexit, what is Covid, etc., will take some time.

    It is possible that - in a decade's time - we will have slipped far behind the continental economies, and that Brexit will look like a very costly folly. It is equally possible that we will have soared, while they have stagnated (or worse).

    That graph about fading British exports is quite striking, however, in comparison to our peers

    The big story is immigration, however. If HMG can't get a grip on the Channel then they have literally "lost control" of the borders and many Leavers will think Fuck it, what WAS the point?
    That is equally absurd. The immigration issue was the right to free movement in the EU. No one ever pretended that it was going to solve illegal immigration which was an issue when we were members. It is simply irrelevant to that issue.
    Naive. The Leave vote was very definitely premised on "taking back control of our borders" as Farage and others made clear

    And it won partly for that reason - and partly because people like me cared about sovereignty (I was sad to see the end of FoM, had no problem with Polish plumbers, but I respect the vote and intent of those that did)

    You can't get a more spectacular illustration of "losing control of the borders" than, er, "losing control of the borders" - as in tens of thousands of illegal immigrants just sailing up to our shores and not getting removed. At times it can look like an "invasion"

    If the Tories can't get a handle on this ASAP then Leave voters who really care about immigration WILL punish them, and they will also ask What was Brexit FOR?
  • DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    We left the EU - for reals - about 15 months ago. And in that time there's been a fairly major development that's affected the whole world.

    Sorting out what is Brexit, what is Covid, etc., will take some time.

    It is possible that - in a decade's time - we will have slipped far behind the continental economies, and that Brexit will look like a very costly folly. It is equally possible that we will have soared, while they have stagnated (or worse).

    That graph about fading British exports is quite striking, however, in comparison to our peers

    The big story is immigration, however. If HMG can't get a grip on the Channel then they have literally "lost control" of the borders and many Leavers will think Fuck it, what WAS the point?
    That is equally absurd. The immigration issue was the right to free movement in the EU. No one ever pretended that it was going to solve illegal immigration which was an issue when we were members. It is simply irrelevant to that issue.
    Endless vox pops of people voting to stop asylum seekers and refugees. Others because too many pakistanis and muslims. You and I know thats irrelevant, but thats what they said they were voting for.
    Yup ; and that's why the nasty Farage poster from the Balkans border was so potent.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I see we are back to hysterical conspiracy theories about Xian on here.

    Jesus wept. It’s the Olympics. Move on FFS.

    Look, I know that you are shitting yourself, like Topping and Ian, but I can't help the fact a genuine mystery is unfolding in Xi'an. Which is probably Omicron, but possibly not

    And it's not like this isn't a major news story (whatever the cause) - if they have Omicron and they can't control it - or they need to lockdown large chunks of China to do so - that is going to have serious consequences for the global economy, as supply chains fail, again. So we can't really "move on"
    Two possible scenarios:

    1) The several people trying to reply rationally and calmly to one person's hysterical outpourings are shitting themselves; or
    2) The one person responsible for said hysterical outpouring is shitting himself.

    Tough call. Or are we all projecting.
    You lot always miss the bigger picture. Let’s take the benign version. This is just omicron. That China is taking these steps in Xian indicates they may very likely be prepared to announce a nationwide lockdown before Chinese New Year, given we all probably agree it’s a bugger to contain it once it’s out there.

    What we know of the underlying virulence of omicron says that this might all be unjustified but it’s tricky to say for sure given we haven’t seen it properly in action in a country with no immunity and little in the way of western approved vaccines.

    A Chinese nationwide lockdown most likely causes a global recession this year.

    There are less benign versions of this story than a global recession this year, whether you want to hear them or not.

    Sure, VHF is endemic in Shanxi. But only strains that spread from rodents to humans.
    We shall have to wait and see. But yes I hold my hand up as I for one didn't at first buy into the whole aliens thing and I am ashamed of that.
    Well we still don’t know enough about UAP to equate them with aliens, however much some of us might think the evidence points that way. What almost all of you refused to take on board, now underlined by the new Congressional legislation passed last week (Gillibrand Amendment to the National Defense Authorisation Act), is that the organs of power in the US are taking UAPs very seriously indeed. Even as you lot laugh it all off.
    I think they're taking it seriously because it's a tactical ruse of their own making. We're going to see lots of extraordinary stories as the USA desperately tries to cling on to its world dominance. They're not going to drift into genteel insignificance the way that Britain did.
    That’s quite the conspiracy theory, given the breadth of politicians and military officials across both time and the left-right spectrum that would need to be involved. Could be you’re right of course. Or could be that when such a range of credible figures say there is observed ultra tech in the skies and oceans that’s not theirs and “needs advances in science to identify”, that we should take what they say at face value.

    I don’t follow US politics as closely as some here but can’t be often that an initiative that is apparently opposed by the Executive, passes both houses in such an overwhelming bipartisan fashion.
    I’m much more sympathetic to your position than many on here, as you know, however your argument here doesn’t quite stand. Because ANY explanation for UAP is going to sound outlandish, will give off conspiracy theory vibes, and will encounter Normalcy Bias

    To name the most prominent:

    1. The entire US military has been suffering multiple simultaneous technical glitches and mass hallucinations for decades and no one in power in America realises this

    2. The elite in America have gone collectively and weirdly mad in exactly the same way, across the political spectrum, as they face the superiority of China, or something

    3. The Chinese have developed incredible 30,000mph aircraft, which also go underwater, and they’ve managed to keep this quiet since 1950

    4. We are being visited and observed by non-human technology

    Which is more, or less, likely? They are all extremely difficult to swallow
    No they aren't. The US is constantly trying these sorts of silly stunts - during the Arab Spring protests there are 'signs and wonders' on film, such as the four horsemen of the apocalypse appearing during one of the protests, and (affaicr) the Holy Spirit appearing as a dove above a Church in Egypt. All extremely unsubtle holographic projections. This is just more of the same. Unless you think an advanced race of aliens has travelled thousands of lightyears (or whatever it is) to appear as some blobs of light giving US sailors a turn.
    I think you would be well served in doing some further research on exactly what has been observed, by which instruments / eye witnesses and also when. You’ve moved on from the last thread of a grand conspiracy involving most of the US political elites, to one where they’ve all been hoodwinked over decades by someone re-enacting the plot of Spiderman Far From Home.
    lol

    it is amazing to see the lengths people will contort themselves in their desperation to avoid THE FOURTH POSSIBILITY
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I see we are back to hysterical conspiracy theories about Xian on here.

    Jesus wept. It’s the Olympics. Move on FFS.

    Look, I know that you are shitting yourself, like Topping and Ian, but I can't help the fact a genuine mystery is unfolding in Xi'an. Which is probably Omicron, but possibly not

    And it's not like this isn't a major news story (whatever the cause) - if they have Omicron and they can't control it - or they need to lockdown large chunks of China to do so - that is going to have serious consequences for the global economy, as supply chains fail, again. So we can't really "move on"
    Two possible scenarios:

    1) The several people trying to reply rationally and calmly to one person's hysterical outpourings are shitting themselves; or
    2) The one person responsible for said hysterical outpouring is shitting himself.

    Tough call. Or are we all projecting.
    You lot always miss the bigger picture. Let’s take the benign version. This is just omicron. That China is taking these steps in Xian indicates they may very likely be prepared to announce a nationwide lockdown before Chinese New Year, given we all probably agree it’s a bugger to contain it once it’s out there.

    What we know of the underlying virulence of omicron says that this might all be unjustified but it’s tricky to say for sure given we haven’t seen it properly in action in a country with no immunity and little in the way of western approved vaccines.

    A Chinese nationwide lockdown most likely causes a global recession this year.

    There are less benign versions of this story than a global recession this year, whether you want to hear them or not.

    Sure, VHF is endemic in Shanxi. But only strains that spread from rodents to humans.
    We shall have to wait and see. But yes I hold my hand up as I for one didn't at first buy into the whole aliens thing and I am ashamed of that.
    Well we still don’t know enough about UAP to equate them with aliens, however much some of us might think the evidence points that way. What almost all of you refused to take on board, now underlined by the new Congressional legislation passed last week (Gillibrand Amendment to the National Defense Authorisation Act), is that the organs of power in the US are taking UAPs very seriously indeed. Even as you lot laugh it all off.
    I think they're taking it seriously because it's a tactical ruse of their own making. We're going to see lots of extraordinary stories as the USA desperately tries to cling on to its world dominance. They're not going to drift into genteel insignificance the way that Britain did.
    That’s quite the conspiracy theory, given the breadth of politicians and military officials across both time and the left-right spectrum that would need to be involved. Could be you’re right of course. Or could be that when such a range of credible figures say there is observed ultra tech in the skies and oceans that’s not theirs and “needs advances in science to identify”, that we should take what they say at face value.

    I don’t follow US politics as closely as some here but can’t be often that an initiative that is apparently opposed by the Executive, passes both houses in such an overwhelming bipartisan fashion.
    I’m much more sympathetic to your position than many on here, as you know, however your argument here doesn’t quite stand. Because ANY explanation for UAP is going to sound outlandish, will give off conspiracy theory vibes, and will encounter Normalcy Bias

    To name the most prominent:

    1. The entire US military has been suffering multiple simultaneous technical glitches and mass hallucinations for decades and no one in power in America realises this

    2. The elite in America have gone collectively and weirdly mad in exactly the same way, across the political spectrum, as they face the superiority of China, or something

    3. The Chinese have developed incredible 30,000mph aircraft, which also go underwater, and they’ve managed to keep this quiet since 1950

    4. We are being visited and observed by non-human technology

    Which is more, or less, likely? They are all extremely difficult to swallow
    No they aren't. The US is constantly trying these sorts of silly stunts - during the Arab Spring protests there are 'signs and wonders' on film, such as the four horsemen of the apocalypse appearing during one of the protests, and (affaicr) the Holy Spirit appearing as a dove above a Church in Egypt. All extremely unsubtle holographic projections. This is just more of the same. Unless you think an advanced race of aliens has travelled thousands of lightyears (or whatever it is) to appear as some blobs of light giving US sailors a turn.
    I think you would be well served in doing some further research on exactly what has been observed, by which instruments / eye witnesses and also when. You’ve moved on from the last thread of a grand conspiracy involving most of the US political elites, to one where they’ve all been hoodwinked over decades by someone re-enacting the plot of Spiderman Far From Home.
    You can drop a Google on the 'signs and wonders' videos for yourself if you so desire. Unless you're putting those down to ET too.
    Aren't you the bloke who thinks we could all live forever on unpasteurised cheese and vitamin D? You seem to be a bit selective wiv da scepticism.
  • Check out this Twitter thread (and note the date)

    When I was Chair of the Assembly I once had an insane lunch with Boris Johnson and Prince Andrew. After we escorted him out the building BJ turned to me and said. "I'm the last person to be a republican but fuck. If I ever have to spend another lunch like that I soon will be."

    https://twitter.com/DarrenJohnson66/status/1167449383706791936
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,578
    The danger is of failing to split the Brexit question up rightly and end up in over simplistic analysis.

    It is easier to comprehend if one thinks of China and democracy. From a Chinese person's point of view one might ask: What evidence is there that democracy would do us good - what are the benefits.

    And the answer might be: I can't say. Democracy is a good thing to have whether or not is makes you richer or whatever. It is also dangerous, messy, and because it puts elections and leadership decisions in the hands of you people one can never predict. By the way it might make everyone richer, healthier, more free, more interesting, whatever - it sometimes does.

    Brexit in large part is the same sort of exercise.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,932
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I see we are back to hysterical conspiracy theories about Xian on here.

    Jesus wept. It’s the Olympics. Move on FFS.

    Look, I know that you are shitting yourself, like Topping and Ian, but I can't help the fact a genuine mystery is unfolding in Xi'an. Which is probably Omicron, but possibly not

    And it's not like this isn't a major news story (whatever the cause) - if they have Omicron and they can't control it - or they need to lockdown large chunks of China to do so - that is going to have serious consequences for the global economy, as supply chains fail, again. So we can't really "move on"
    Two possible scenarios:

    1) The several people trying to reply rationally and calmly to one person's hysterical outpourings are shitting themselves; or
    2) The one person responsible for said hysterical outpouring is shitting himself.

    Tough call. Or are we all projecting.
    You lot always miss the bigger picture. Let’s take the benign version. This is just omicron. That China is taking these steps in Xian indicates they may very likely be prepared to announce a nationwide lockdown before Chinese New Year, given we all probably agree it’s a bugger to contain it once it’s out there.

    What we know of the underlying virulence of omicron says that this might all be unjustified but it’s tricky to say for sure given we haven’t seen it properly in action in a country with no immunity and little in the way of western approved vaccines.

    A Chinese nationwide lockdown most likely causes a global recession this year.

    There are less benign versions of this story than a global recession this year, whether you want to hear them or not.

    Sure, VHF is endemic in Shanxi. But only strains that spread from rodents to humans.
    We shall have to wait and see. But yes I hold my hand up as I for one didn't at first buy into the whole aliens thing and I am ashamed of that.
    Well we still don’t know enough about UAP to equate them with aliens, however much some of us might think the evidence points that way. What almost all of you refused to take on board, now underlined by the new Congressional legislation passed last week (Gillibrand Amendment to the National Defense Authorisation Act), is that the organs of power in the US are taking UAPs very seriously indeed. Even as you lot laugh it all off.
    I think they're taking it seriously because it's a tactical ruse of their own making. We're going to see lots of extraordinary stories as the USA desperately tries to cling on to its world dominance. They're not going to drift into genteel insignificance the way that Britain did.
    That’s quite the conspiracy theory, given the breadth of politicians and military officials across both time and the left-right spectrum that would need to be involved. Could be you’re right of course. Or could be that when such a range of credible figures say there is observed ultra tech in the skies and oceans that’s not theirs and “needs advances in science to identify”, that we should take what they say at face value.

    I don’t follow US politics as closely as some here but can’t be often that an initiative that is apparently opposed by the Executive, passes both houses in such an overwhelming bipartisan fashion.
    I’m much more sympathetic to your position than many on here, as you know, however your argument here doesn’t quite stand. Because ANY explanation for UAP is going to sound outlandish, will give off conspiracy theory vibes, and will encounter Normalcy Bias

    To name the most prominent:

    1. The entire US military has been suffering multiple simultaneous technical glitches and mass hallucinations for decades and no one in power in America realises this

    2. The elite in America have gone collectively and weirdly mad in exactly the same way, across the political spectrum, as they face the superiority of China, or something

    3. The Chinese have developed incredible 30,000mph aircraft, which also go underwater, and they’ve managed to keep this quiet since 1950

    4. We are being visited and observed by non-human technology

    Which is more, or less, likely? They are all extremely difficult to swallow
    No they aren't. The US is constantly trying these sorts of silly stunts - during the Arab Spring protests there are 'signs and wonders' on film, such as the four horsemen of the apocalypse appearing during one of the protests, and (affaicr) the Holy Spirit appearing as a dove above a Church in Egypt. All extremely unsubtle holographic projections. This is just more of the same. Unless you think an advanced race of aliens has travelled thousands of lightyears (or whatever it is) to appear as some blobs of light giving US sailors a turn.
    This really isn't a remotely similar situation
    Not similar, the same. Alien disclosure it just the latest world domination plan some idiot at The Pentagon has dreamed up as a use of the current superiority of US military technology. If and when ET actually descends the gangplank and says hello, the whole scene will be so unsubtle and Hollywood-esque, the world will cringe collectively.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,262
    The worse thing about everything becoming a conspiracy theory is that I discover threads like this and need to add the previous rider to it

    https://twitter.com/MicahPollak/status/1477727474003894274\

    Micah Pollak
    @MicahPollak
    If you're going to trust anyone to know the real cost of #COVID19 in terms of deaths, trust life insurance companies. I was there for this online news conference and it was stunning. Deaths are up 40% *from pre-pandemic levels* among working-age people.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,387
    Scott_xP said:

    Macron’s covid strategy; piss off the unvaccinated. (It’s a quote)

    Id love to see the vaccinated/ voter intention correlation on this

    https://twitter.com/mariatad/status/1478472234889093128
    https://twitter.com/nicolasberrod/status/1478456757970251778

    That's far from a stupid policy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    edited January 4
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    That linked Telegraph piece also uses the hated (by me) form, one year anniversary:-
    The big prize remains an agreement with America but as the one-year anniversary of Joe Biden’s inauguration approaches, a transatlantic tie-up remains as far beyond our reach as ever.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/04/time-running-prove-brexit-not-historic-failure/ (£££)

    No it doesn't, Leave voters voted to regain sovereignty, end free movement and leave the CFP. All achieved. Very few of them voted for a trade deal with the USA
    They did, however, do so on the back of promises of “all the same benefits”, “frictionless trade” and “no border in the Irish Sea”, not to mention lots of extra dosh for the NHS achieved without having to shove up NI to pay for it. Plus a better deal for our farmers and fishermen.
    We now have a trade deal with the EU. Extra money is going into the NHS. Fishermen can keep more of their catch now we have left the CFP.

    Plus you would be the first to complain about cheap, mass produced, chemical filled US meat arriving here after a US trade deal and hitting our farmers
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076
    That's not my Brexit it's coat is too xenophobic.
    That's not my Brexit it's taxes are too high.
    That's not my Brexit it comes with massively increased paperwork. Etc., Etc,.Etc.
    Right down to My uncle John That's not my Brexit, the pizza shop is still open. It smells funny.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,904
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyone who claims that they can identify any economic effect of Brexit for good or ill at the present time is delusional. We have gone through storm Arwen and have worse to come and we are arguing about a gentle offshore breeze. It’s absurd.

    What does the mountain of red tape throttling our trade have to do with Arwen? And aren't you Tories the people who spent decades working to remove said red tape?
    Our trade is being throttled by most of our major customers being in recession or, at best, partial recovery and by disruption of supplies from China and the Far East.

    These have been massive effects and I predict that there is a lot more disruption to come. It is not paperwork, such as that required by our non EU markets both before and after we left that is causing the decline.

    Our economy also grew quite strongly this year, faster than any of the larger economies in Europe. Do I claim that is a benefit of Brexit? Will I claim it when we continue to outgrow the EU average next year? Nope. There are far more important factors at play.
    Err…that was because it fell further in the first place (or, more likely, both the larger downswing and larger recovery were because of the way we do the measuring)

    A startling statistic - since the Brexit vote, the Uk stock market is up about 5% and the US stock market up about 105%
    I presume you picked that up from the Today program this morning. It was an interesting piece. The reason seemed to be that pension funds in the UK were a lot more interested in dividend flow than capital growth whilst the US was much more interested in capital growth.

    Can you imagine a company like Amazon growing in the UK without paying any dividends for decades?

    What was also clear was that the UK mindset was pretty typical of Europe as a whole and London remains the largest stock market on the continent. These are quite interesting structural issues but they really have nothing to do with Brexit either. They were well established trends before and have not yet been broken, albeit London seems to have made some progress with smaller companies.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyone who claims that they can identify any economic effect of Brexit for good or ill at the present time is delusional. We have gone through storm Arwen and have worse to come and we are arguing about a gentle offshore breeze. It’s absurd.

    What does the mountain of red tape throttling our trade have to do with Arwen? And aren't you Tories the people who spent decades working to remove said red tape?
    Our trade is being throttled by most of our major customers being in recession or, at best, partial recovery and by disruption of supplies from China and the Far East.

    These have been massive effects and I predict that there is a lot more disruption to come. It is not paperwork, such as that required by our non EU markets both before and after we left that is causing the decline.

    Our economy also grew quite strongly this year, faster than any of the larger economies in Europe. Do I claim that is a benefit of Brexit? Will I claim it when we continue to outgrow the EU average next year? Nope. There are far more important factors at play.
    Though in the Remainiacs favourite journal, there was this interesting piece on how our trade performance has compared to other similar countries across the covid pandemic:

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1534017/UK-trade-data-post-Brexit-GDP-EU-evg

  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735

    It doesn't seem that implausible to me that some form of intelligence might want to see without being seen too clearly. This could apply to anyone and anything.

    One of the more plausible subsets of the "it's aliens" theory is that it isn't actually alien beings we are sort-of witnessing, but autonomous alien drones, sent out to observe other life around the galaxy, or even the universe, and then send the data back home

    That overcomes all the time/distance problems. This advanced civilisation could be 80,000 light years away, but they sent these probes 80,000 years ago. It also explains some of the G-forces observed, which would crush most conceivable organic life, as we understand it

    The drones may contain AI of course, which adds another layer

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,144
    HYUFD said:

    Fishermen can keep more of their catch

    They can't fucking sell it, which is rather the point of being a fisherman...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,387
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I see we are back to hysterical conspiracy theories about Xian on here.

    Jesus wept. It’s the Olympics. Move on FFS.

    Look, I know that you are shitting yourself, like Topping and Ian, but I can't help the fact a genuine mystery is unfolding in Xi'an. Which is probably Omicron, but possibly not

    And it's not like this isn't a major news story (whatever the cause) - if they have Omicron and they can't control it - or they need to lockdown large chunks of China to do so - that is going to have serious consequences for the global economy, as supply chains fail, again. So we can't really "move on"
    Two possible scenarios:

    1) The several people trying to reply rationally and calmly to one person's hysterical outpourings are shitting themselves; or
    2) The one person responsible for said hysterical outpouring is shitting himself.

    Tough call. Or are we all projecting.
    You lot always miss the bigger picture. Let’s take the benign version. This is just omicron. That China is taking these steps in Xian indicates they may very likely be prepared to announce a nationwide lockdown before Chinese New Year, given we all probably agree it’s a bugger to contain it once it’s out there.

    What we know of the underlying virulence of omicron says that this might all be unjustified but it’s tricky to say for sure given we haven’t seen it properly in action in a country with no immunity and little in the way of western approved vaccines.

    A Chinese nationwide lockdown most likely causes a global recession this year.

    There are less benign versions of this story than a global recession this year, whether you want to hear them or not.

    Sure, VHF is endemic in Shanxi. But only strains that spread from rodents to humans.
    We shall have to wait and see. But yes I hold my hand up as I for one didn't at first buy into the whole aliens thing and I am ashamed of that.
    Well we still don’t know enough about UAP to equate them with aliens, however much some of us might think the evidence points that way. What almost all of you refused to take on board, now underlined by the new Congressional legislation passed last week (Gillibrand Amendment to the National Defense Authorisation Act), is that the organs of power in the US are taking UAPs very seriously indeed. Even as you lot laugh it all off.
    I think they're taking it seriously because it's a tactical ruse of their own making. We're going to see lots of extraordinary stories as the USA desperately tries to cling on to its world dominance. They're not going to drift into genteel insignificance the way that Britain did.
    That’s quite the conspiracy theory, given the breadth of politicians and military officials across both time and the left-right spectrum that would need to be involved. Could be you’re right of course. Or could be that when such a range of credible figures say there is observed ultra tech in the skies and oceans that’s not theirs and “needs advances in science to identify”, that we should take what they say at face value.

    I don’t follow US politics as closely as some here but can’t be often that an initiative that is apparently opposed by the Executive, passes both houses in such an overwhelming bipartisan fashion.
    I’m much more sympathetic to your position than many on here, as you know, however your argument here doesn’t quite stand. Because ANY explanation for UAP is going to sound outlandish, will give off conspiracy theory vibes, and will encounter Normalcy Bias

    To name the most prominent:

    1. The entire US military has been suffering multiple simultaneous technical glitches and mass hallucinations for decades and no one in power in America realises this

    2. The elite in America have gone collectively and weirdly mad in exactly the same way, across the political spectrum, as they face the superiority of China, or something

    3. The Chinese have developed incredible 30,000mph aircraft, which also go underwater, and they’ve managed to keep this quiet since 1950

    4. We are being visited and observed by non-human technology

    Which is more, or less, likely? They are all extremely difficult to swallow
    No they aren't. The US is constantly trying these sorts of silly stunts - during the Arab Spring protests there are 'signs and wonders' on film, such as the four horsemen of the apocalypse appearing during one of the protests, and (affaicr) the Holy Spirit appearing as a dove above a Church in Egypt. All extremely unsubtle holographic projections. This is just more of the same. Unless you think an advanced race of aliens has travelled thousands of lightyears (or whatever it is) to appear as some blobs of light giving US sailors a turn.
    I think you would be well served in doing some further research on exactly what has been observed, by which instruments / eye witnesses and also when. You’ve moved on from the last thread of a grand conspiracy involving most of the US political elites, to one where they’ve all been hoodwinked over decades by someone re-enacting the plot of Spiderman Far From Home.
    I do find it curious that at a time when we've gone from literally no-one carrying cameras around with them, to a situation where more than four billion people carry cameras, and almost everything that happens is captured on a smartphone, that we're not seeing more videos from individuals.

    Almost all the stuff we've seen has come from the US military. Which is weird, because there's only a few hundred thousand of them.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,391
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    That linked Telegraph piece also uses the hated (by me) form, one year anniversary:-
    The big prize remains an agreement with America but as the one-year anniversary of Joe Biden’s inauguration approaches, a transatlantic tie-up remains as far beyond our reach as ever.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/04/time-running-prove-brexit-not-historic-failure/ (£££)

    No it doesn't, Leave voters voted to regain sovereignty, end free movement and leave the CFP. All achieved. Very few of them voted for a trade deal with the USA
    They did, however, do so on the back of promises of “all the same benefits”, “frictionless trade” and “no border in the Irish Sea”, not to mention lots of extra dosh for the NHS achieved without having to shove up NI to pay for it. Plus a better deal for our farmers and fishermen.
    We now have a trade deal with the EU. Extra money is going into the NHS. Fishermen can keep more of their catch now we have left the CFP.

    Plus you would be the first to complain about cheap, mass produced, chemical filled US meat arriving here after a US trade deal and hitting our farmers
    Its the "trade deal" with the EU which is causing the upset. Largely the status quo ante but with reams of expensive red tape and delays.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076
    Leon said:

    It doesn't seem that implausible to me that some form of intelligence might want to see without being seen too clearly. This could apply to anyone and anything.

    One of the more plausible subsets of the "it's aliens" theory is that it isn't actually alien beings we are sort-of witnessing, but autonomous alien drones, sent out to observe other life around the galaxy, or even the universe, and then send the data back home

    That overcomes all the time/distance problems. This advanced civilisation could be 80,000 light years away, but they sent these probes 80,000 years ago. It also explains some of the G-forces observed, which would crush most conceivable organic life, as we understand it

    The drones may contain AI of course, which adds another layer

    Maybe they're here because they heard what a terrific idea Brexit was?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    algarkirk said:

    The danger is of failing to split the Brexit question up rightly and end up in over simplistic analysis.

    It is easier to comprehend if one thinks of China and democracy. From a Chinese person's point of view one might ask: What evidence is there that democracy would do us good - what are the benefits.

    And the answer might be: I can't say. Democracy is a good thing to have whether or not is makes you richer or whatever. It is also dangerous, messy, and because it puts elections and leadership decisions in the hands of you people one can never predict. By the way it might make everyone richer, healthier, more free, more interesting, whatever - it sometimes does.

    Brexit in large part is the same sort of exercise.

    I’d suggest that not having to live in a dictatorship that comes round and welds your windows shut and waves flamethrowers about in the street, and where you have the freedom to speak freely and surf the entire internet, are the kind of tangible upsides of which Brexit could only dream.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,387
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    That linked Telegraph piece also uses the hated (by me) form, one year anniversary:-
    The big prize remains an agreement with America but as the one-year anniversary of Joe Biden’s inauguration approaches, a transatlantic tie-up remains as far beyond our reach as ever.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/04/time-running-prove-brexit-not-historic-failure/ (£££)

    No it doesn't, Leave voters voted to regain sovereignty, end free movement and leave the CFP. All achieved. Very few of them voted for a trade deal with the USA
    They did, however, do so on the back of promises of “all the same benefits”, “frictionless trade” and “no border in the Irish Sea”, not to mention lots of extra dosh for the NHS achieved without having to shove up NI to pay for it. Plus a better deal for our farmers and fishermen.
    Also, no border in the English channel (for Syrian migrants).
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,578
    edited January 4
    dixiedean said:

    It's no wonder Brexit isn't a success since Brexiters on here can't agree what on Earth it was about in the first place.

    They don't have to. Brexiteers only have to point out the the future of the UK is a matter for the democratic process, and that Brexit restores us to the situation where we are not being legislated for, and where no court is higher than our own.

    Politically the most interesting question (we may wait some time) is the Labour approach to the matter. At what point does this silence become so deafening that SKS has to respond?

    BTW the much trailed big speech of SKS today did nor more than emphasise a few political objectives of the sort no-one short of Stalin or Pol Pot could find objection to, and to remind us that SKS loves flag and country.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    edited January 4

    Check out this Twitter thread (and note the date)

    When I was Chair of the Assembly I once had an insane lunch with Boris Johnson and Prince Andrew. After we escorted him out the building BJ turned to me and said. "I'm the last person to be a republican but fuck. If I ever have to spend another lunch like that I soon will be."

    https://twitter.com/DarrenJohnson66/status/1167449383706791936

    Andrew said the QEII Centre was too small, Boris said if it is that is your mum's fault, at which point Andrew stuck his tongue out at Boris.
    https://twitter.com/DarrenJohnson66/status/1167535329915670529?s=20
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,387
    Leon said:

    It doesn't seem that implausible to me that some form of intelligence might want to see without being seen too clearly. This could apply to anyone and anything.

    One of the more plausible subsets of the "it's aliens" theory is that it isn't actually alien beings we are sort-of witnessing, but autonomous alien drones, sent out to observe other life around the galaxy, or even the universe, and then send the data back home

    That overcomes all the time/distance problems. This advanced civilisation could be 80,000 light years away, but they sent these probes 80,000 years ago. It also explains some of the G-forces observed, which would crush most conceivable organic life, as we understand it

    The drones may contain AI of course, which adds another layer

    Oh, that's massively more plausible than actual sentient beings.

    By far the most likely alien scenario is that automated drones were sent to the 10,000 most likely places for intelligent life to develop to watch and report back.

    We could well have drones from tens of different civilizations watching us and reporting back.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    That linked Telegraph piece also uses the hated (by me) form, one year anniversary:-
    The big prize remains an agreement with America but as the one-year anniversary of Joe Biden’s inauguration approaches, a transatlantic tie-up remains as far beyond our reach as ever.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/04/time-running-prove-brexit-not-historic-failure/ (£££)

    No it doesn't, Leave voters voted to regain sovereignty, end free movement and leave the CFP. All achieved. Very few of them voted for a trade deal with the USA
    They did, however, do so on the back of promises of “all the same benefits”, “frictionless trade” and “no border in the Irish Sea”, not to mention lots of extra dosh for the NHS achieved without having to shove up NI to pay for it. Plus a better deal for our farmers and fishermen.
    We now have a trade deal with the EU. Extra money is going into the NHS. Fishermen can keep more of their catch now we have left the CFP.

    Plus you would be the first to complain about cheap, mass produced, chemical filled US meat arriving here after a US trade deal and hitting our farmers
    Its the "trade deal" with the EU which is causing the upset. Largely the status quo ante but with reams of expensive red tape and delays.
    Yes, I see there’s a Tory MP on ConHome who, in the middle of an article supposedly about the wonders of Brexit, goes off on a tangent to moan that a pallet company in his constituency is now having to heat treat its pallets (to counter any wood-borne disease) each time before they set off to the EU.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,529
    Only £12m for Trippier lol. Bargain.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,144
    algarkirk said:

    Politically the most interesting question (we may wait some time) is the Labour approach to the matter. At what point does this silence become so deafening that SKS has to respond?

    The Labour response is simple.

    "Brexit, as delivered by BoZo and chums, is shit."
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,422
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    We left the EU - for reals - about 15 months ago. And in that time there's been a fairly major development that's affected the whole world.

    Sorting out what is Brexit, what is Covid, etc., will take some time.

    It is possible that - in a decade's time - we will have slipped far behind the continental economies, and that Brexit will look like a very costly folly. It is equally possible that we will have soared, while they have stagnated (or worse).

    That graph about fading British exports is quite striking, however, in comparison to our peers

    The big story is immigration, however. If HMG can't get a grip on the Channel then they have literally "lost control" of the borders and many Leavers will think Fuck it, what WAS the point?
    That is equally absurd. The immigration issue was the right to free movement in the EU. No one ever pretended that it was going to solve illegal immigration which was an issue when we were members. It is simply irrelevant to that issue.
    You may be right, but I'm not sure it's absurd. If we hadn't left the EU then in an alternative scenario the EU in general and the French in particular may have taken more of an interest in helping us to find solutions to the cross-Channel trafficking of asylum seekers/economic migrants/illegal immigrants (take your pick). There's certainly been a huge increase in the volume of such crossings since Brexit, and I'm not sure that's entirely coincidental.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I see we are back to hysterical conspiracy theories about Xian on here.

    Jesus wept. It’s the Olympics. Move on FFS.

    Look, I know that you are shitting yourself, like Topping and Ian, but I can't help the fact a genuine mystery is unfolding in Xi'an. Which is probably Omicron, but possibly not

    And it's not like this isn't a major news story (whatever the cause) - if they have Omicron and they can't control it - or they need to lockdown large chunks of China to do so - that is going to have serious consequences for the global economy, as supply chains fail, again. So we can't really "move on"
    Two possible scenarios:

    1) The several people trying to reply rationally and calmly to one person's hysterical outpourings are shitting themselves; or
    2) The one person responsible for said hysterical outpouring is shitting himself.

    Tough call. Or are we all projecting.
    You lot always miss the bigger picture. Let’s take the benign version. This is just omicron. That China is taking these steps in Xian indicates they may very likely be prepared to announce a nationwide lockdown before Chinese New Year, given we all probably agree it’s a bugger to contain it once it’s out there.

    What we know of the underlying virulence of omicron says that this might all be unjustified but it’s tricky to say for sure given we haven’t seen it properly in action in a country with no immunity and little in the way of western approved vaccines.

    A Chinese nationwide lockdown most likely causes a global recession this year.

    There are less benign versions of this story than a global recession this year, whether you want to hear them or not.

    Sure, VHF is endemic in Shanxi. But only strains that spread from rodents to humans.
    We shall have to wait and see. But yes I hold my hand up as I for one didn't at first buy into the whole aliens thing and I am ashamed of that.
    Well we still don’t know enough about UAP to equate them with aliens, however much some of us might think the evidence points that way. What almost all of you refused to take on board, now underlined by the new Congressional legislation passed last week (Gillibrand Amendment to the National Defense Authorisation Act), is that the organs of power in the US are taking UAPs very seriously indeed. Even as you lot laugh it all off.
    I think they're taking it seriously because it's a tactical ruse of their own making. We're going to see lots of extraordinary stories as the USA desperately tries to cling on to its world dominance. They're not going to drift into genteel insignificance the way that Britain did.
    That’s quite the conspiracy theory, given the breadth of politicians and military officials across both time and the left-right spectrum that would need to be involved. Could be you’re right of course. Or could be that when such a range of credible figures say there is observed ultra tech in the skies and oceans that’s not theirs and “needs advances in science to identify”, that we should take what they say at face value.

    I don’t follow US politics as closely as some here but can’t be often that an initiative that is apparently opposed by the Executive, passes both houses in such an overwhelming bipartisan fashion.
    I’m much more sympathetic to your position than many on here, as you know, however your argument here doesn’t quite stand. Because ANY explanation for UAP is going to sound outlandish, will give off conspiracy theory vibes, and will encounter Normalcy Bias

    To name the most prominent:

    1. The entire US military has been suffering multiple simultaneous technical glitches and mass hallucinations for decades and no one in power in America realises this

    2. The elite in America have gone collectively and weirdly mad in exactly the same way, across the political spectrum, as they face the superiority of China, or something

    3. The Chinese have developed incredible 30,000mph aircraft, which also go underwater, and they’ve managed to keep this quiet since 1950

    4. We are being visited and observed by non-human technology

    Which is more, or less, likely? They are all extremely difficult to swallow
    No they aren't. The US is constantly trying these sorts of silly stunts - during the Arab Spring protests there are 'signs and wonders' on film, such as the four horsemen of the apocalypse appearing during one of the protests, and (affaicr) the Holy Spirit appearing as a dove above a Church in Egypt. All extremely unsubtle holographic projections. This is just more of the same. Unless you think an advanced race of aliens has travelled thousands of lightyears (or whatever it is) to appear as some blobs of light giving US sailors a turn.
    This really isn't a remotely similar situation
    Not similar, the same. Alien disclosure it just the latest world domination plan some idiot at The Pentagon has dreamed up as a use of the current superiority of US military technology. If and when ET actually descends the gangplank and says hello, the whole scene will be so unsubtle and Hollywood-esque, the world will cringe collectively.
    OK.... And they've roped in several former presidents, CIA directors, top generals and admirals, senators, journalists, TV people, indeed thousands of senior members of the US politico-military-media elite, from all sides of the party spectrum, and they've got them all together and they've said "hey look guys, we're gonna pretend we believe in aliens, to freak out the Chinese, for some purpose we don't know yet, it will make you look mad, but go with it" - and they all agreed?

    Quite a reach, but who knows. You could be right

    As I said, any explanation that covers all the bases sounds rather mad. Like yours
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,046
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyone who claims that they can identify any economic effect of Brexit for good or ill at the present time is delusional. We have gone through storm Arwen and have worse to come and we are arguing about a gentle offshore breeze. It’s absurd.

    What does the mountain of red tape throttling our trade have to do with Arwen? And aren't you Tories the people who spent decades working to remove said red tape?
    Our trade is being throttled by most of our major customers being in recession or, at best, partial recovery and by disruption of supplies from China and the Far East.

    These have been massive effects and I predict that there is a lot more disruption to come. It is not paperwork, such as that required by our non EU markets both before and after we left that is causing the decline.

    Our economy also grew quite strongly this year, faster than any of the larger economies in Europe. Do I claim that is a benefit of Brexit? Will I claim it when we continue to outgrow the EU average next year? Nope. There are far more important factors at play.
    Has the UK not been one of the countries worst hit economically by covid thus far? And 'our economy growing strongly this year' is a rather dubious measure - what surely matters most is when we get back to the pre-covid output level.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,691
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyone who claims that they can identify any economic effect of Brexit for good or ill at the present time is delusional. We have gone through storm Arwen and have worse to come and we are arguing about a gentle offshore breeze. It’s absurd.

    What does the mountain of red tape throttling our trade have to do with Arwen? And aren't you Tories the people who spent decades working to remove said red tape?
    Our trade is being throttled by most of our major customers being in recession or, at best, partial recovery and by disruption of supplies from China and the Far East.

    These have been massive effects and I predict that there is a lot more disruption to come. It is not paperwork, such as that required by our non EU markets both before and after we left that is causing the decline.

    Our economy also grew quite strongly this year, faster than any of the larger economies in Europe. Do I claim that is a benefit of Brexit? Will I claim it when we continue to outgrow the EU average next year? Nope. There are far more important factors at play.
    Err…that was because it fell further in the first place (or, more likely, both the larger downswing and larger recovery were because of the way we do the measuring)

    A startling statistic - since the Brexit vote, the Uk stock market is up about 5% and the US stock market up about 105%
    Extended item on this morning about that on one of the news channels.

    Quite interesting.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,932
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I see we are back to hysterical conspiracy theories about Xian on here.

    Jesus wept. It’s the Olympics. Move on FFS.

    Look, I know that you are shitting yourself, like Topping and Ian, but I can't help the fact a genuine mystery is unfolding in Xi'an. Which is probably Omicron, but possibly not

    And it's not like this isn't a major news story (whatever the cause) - if they have Omicron and they can't control it - or they need to lockdown large chunks of China to do so - that is going to have serious consequences for the global economy, as supply chains fail, again. So we can't really "move on"
    Two possible scenarios:

    1) The several people trying to reply rationally and calmly to one person's hysterical outpourings are shitting themselves; or
    2) The one person responsible for said hysterical outpouring is shitting himself.

    Tough call. Or are we all projecting.
    You lot always miss the bigger picture. Let’s take the benign version. This is just omicron. That China is taking these steps in Xian indicates they may very likely be prepared to announce a nationwide lockdown before Chinese New Year, given we all probably agree it’s a bugger to contain it once it’s out there.

    What we know of the underlying virulence of omicron says that this might all be unjustified but it’s tricky to say for sure given we haven’t seen it properly in action in a country with no immunity and little in the way of western approved vaccines.

    A Chinese nationwide lockdown most likely causes a global recession this year.

    There are less benign versions of this story than a global recession this year, whether you want to hear them or not.

    Sure, VHF is endemic in Shanxi. But only strains that spread from rodents to humans.
    We shall have to wait and see. But yes I hold my hand up as I for one didn't at first buy into the whole aliens thing and I am ashamed of that.
    Well we still don’t know enough about UAP to equate them with aliens, however much some of us might think the evidence points that way. What almost all of you refused to take on board, now underlined by the new Congressional legislation passed last week (Gillibrand Amendment to the National Defense Authorisation Act), is that the organs of power in the US are taking UAPs very seriously indeed. Even as you lot laugh it all off.
    I think they're taking it seriously because it's a tactical ruse of their own making. We're going to see lots of extraordinary stories as the USA desperately tries to cling on to its world dominance. They're not going to drift into genteel insignificance the way that Britain did.
    That’s quite the conspiracy theory, given the breadth of politicians and military officials across both time and the left-right spectrum that would need to be involved. Could be you’re right of course. Or could be that when such a range of credible figures say there is observed ultra tech in the skies and oceans that’s not theirs and “needs advances in science to identify”, that we should take what they say at face value.

    I don’t follow US politics as closely as some here but can’t be often that an initiative that is apparently opposed by the Executive, passes both houses in such an overwhelming bipartisan fashion.
    I’m much more sympathetic to your position than many on here, as you know, however your argument here doesn’t quite stand. Because ANY explanation for UAP is going to sound outlandish, will give off conspiracy theory vibes, and will encounter Normalcy Bias

    To name the most prominent:

    1. The entire US military has been suffering multiple simultaneous technical glitches and mass hallucinations for decades and no one in power in America realises this

    2. The elite in America have gone collectively and weirdly mad in exactly the same way, across the political spectrum, as they face the superiority of China, or something

    3. The Chinese have developed incredible 30,000mph aircraft, which also go underwater, and they’ve managed to keep this quiet since 1950

    4. We are being visited and observed by non-human technology

    Which is more, or less, likely? They are all extremely difficult to swallow
    No they aren't. The US is constantly trying these sorts of silly stunts - during the Arab Spring protests there are 'signs and wonders' on film, such as the four horsemen of the apocalypse appearing during one of the protests, and (affaicr) the Holy Spirit appearing as a dove above a Church in Egypt. All extremely unsubtle holographic projections. This is just more of the same. Unless you think an advanced race of aliens has travelled thousands of lightyears (or whatever it is) to appear as some blobs of light giving US sailors a turn.
    I think you would be well served in doing some further research on exactly what has been observed, by which instruments / eye witnesses and also when. You’ve moved on from the last thread of a grand conspiracy involving most of the US political elites, to one where they’ve all been hoodwinked over decades by someone re-enacting the plot of Spiderman Far From Home.
    I do find it curious that at a time when we've gone from literally no-one carrying cameras around with them, to a situation where more than four billion people carry cameras, and almost everything that happens is captured on a smartphone, that we're not seeing more videos from individuals.

    Almost all the stuff we've seen has come from the US military. Which is weird, because there's only a few hundred thousand of them.
    Well quite.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,390
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I see we are back to hysterical conspiracy theories about Xian on here.

    Jesus wept. It’s the Olympics. Move on FFS.

    Look, I know that you are shitting yourself, like Topping and Ian, but I can't help the fact a genuine mystery is unfolding in Xi'an. Which is probably Omicron, but possibly not

    And it's not like this isn't a major news story (whatever the cause) - if they have Omicron and they can't control it - or they need to lockdown large chunks of China to do so - that is going to have serious consequences for the global economy, as supply chains fail, again. So we can't really "move on"
    Two possible scenarios:

    1) The several people trying to reply rationally and calmly to one person's hysterical outpourings are shitting themselves; or
    2) The one person responsible for said hysterical outpouring is shitting himself.

    Tough call. Or are we all projecting.
    You lot always miss the bigger picture. Let’s take the benign version. This is just omicron. That China is taking these steps in Xian indicates they may very likely be prepared to announce a nationwide lockdown before Chinese New Year, given we all probably agree it’s a bugger to contain it once it’s out there.

    What we know of the underlying virulence of omicron says that this might all be unjustified but it’s tricky to say for sure given we haven’t seen it properly in action in a country with no immunity and little in the way of western approved vaccines.

    A Chinese nationwide lockdown most likely causes a global recession this year.

    There are less benign versions of this story than a global recession this year, whether you want to hear them or not.

    Sure, VHF is endemic in Shanxi. But only strains that spread from rodents to humans.
    We shall have to wait and see. But yes I hold my hand up as I for one didn't at first buy into the whole aliens thing and I am ashamed of that.
    Well we still don’t know enough about UAP to equate them with aliens, however much some of us might think the evidence points that way. What almost all of you refused to take on board, now underlined by the new Congressional legislation passed last week (Gillibrand Amendment to the National Defense Authorisation Act), is that the organs of power in the US are taking UAPs very seriously indeed. Even as you lot laugh it all off.
    I think they're taking it seriously because it's a tactical ruse of their own making. We're going to see lots of extraordinary stories as the USA desperately tries to cling on to its world dominance. They're not going to drift into genteel insignificance the way that Britain did.
    That’s quite the conspiracy theory, given the breadth of politicians and military officials across both time and the left-right spectrum that would need to be involved. Could be you’re right of course. Or could be that when such a range of credible figures say there is observed ultra tech in the skies and oceans that’s not theirs and “needs advances in science to identify”, that we should take what they say at face value.

    I don’t follow US politics as closely as some here but can’t be often that an initiative that is apparently opposed by the Executive, passes both houses in such an overwhelming bipartisan fashion.
    I’m much more sympathetic to your position than many on here, as you know, however your argument here doesn’t quite stand. Because ANY explanation for UAP is going to sound outlandish, will give off conspiracy theory vibes, and will encounter Normalcy Bias

    To name the most prominent:

    1. The entire US military has been suffering multiple simultaneous technical glitches and mass hallucinations for decades and no one in power in America realises this

    2. The elite in America have gone collectively and weirdly mad in exactly the same way, across the political spectrum, as they face the superiority of China, or something

    3. The Chinese have developed incredible 30,000mph aircraft, which also go underwater, and they’ve managed to keep this quiet since 1950

    4. We are being visited and observed by non-human technology

    Which is more, or less, likely? They are all extremely difficult to swallow
    No they aren't. The US is constantly trying these sorts of silly stunts - during the Arab Spring protests there are 'signs and wonders' on film, such as the four horsemen of the apocalypse appearing during one of the protests, and (affaicr) the Holy Spirit appearing as a dove above a Church in Egypt. All extremely unsubtle holographic projections. This is just more of the same. Unless you think an advanced race of aliens has travelled thousands of lightyears (or whatever it is) to appear as some blobs of light giving US sailors a turn.
    I think you would be well served in doing some further research on exactly what has been observed, by which instruments / eye witnesses and also when. You’ve moved on from the last thread of a grand conspiracy involving most of the US political elites, to one where they’ve all been hoodwinked over decades by someone re-enacting the plot of Spiderman Far From Home.
    I do find it curious that at a time when we've gone from literally no-one carrying cameras around with them, to a situation where more than four billion people carry cameras, and almost everything that happens is captured on a smartphone, that we're not seeing more videos from individuals.

    Almost all the stuff we've seen has come from the US military. Which is weird, because there's only a few hundred thousand of them.
    True for ALL Fortean things. When I was reading Arthur C. Clarke’s mysterious world as a youth I truly believed we would find all these wonderful and wierd things, if only we had a way to get the evidence. The huge availability of cameras in phones, plus cctv, and really very little of interest has come to light.
    It saddens me, but the older I get, the less I believe. I still want to though...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076
    Leon said:

    It doesn't seem that implausible to me that some form of intelligence might want to see without being seen too clearly. This could apply to anyone and anything.

    One of the more plausible subsets of the "it's aliens" theory is that it isn't actually alien beings we are sort-of witnessing, but autonomous alien drones, sent out to observe other life around the galaxy, or even the universe, and then send the data back home

    That overcomes all the time/distance problems. This advanced civilisation could be 80,000 light years away, but they sent these probes 80,000 years ago. It also explains some of the G-forces observed, which would crush most conceivable organic life, as we understand it

    The drones may contain AI of course, which adds another layer

    If they had that kind of tech, why would they ever be anything other than AI? They could send out millions all over the galaxy and wait to see if owt interesting was found to be worth settling, invading, civilising, annihilating. Or whatever.
    Like Europe did from the 15 the Century onwards.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,578
    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    The danger is of failing to split the Brexit question up rightly and end up in over simplistic analysis.

    It is easier to comprehend if one thinks of China and democracy. From a Chinese person's point of view one might ask: What evidence is there that democracy would do us good - what are the benefits.

    And the answer might be: I can't say. Democracy is a good thing to have whether or not is makes you richer or whatever. It is also dangerous, messy, and because it puts elections and leadership decisions in the hands of you people one can never predict. By the way it might make everyone richer, healthier, more free, more interesting, whatever - it sometimes does.

    Brexit in large part is the same sort of exercise.

    I’d suggest that not having to live in a dictatorship that comes round and welds your windows shut and waves flamethrowers about in the street, and where you have the freedom to speak freely and surf the entire internet, are the kind of tangible upsides of which Brexit could only dream.
    Obviously yes. The Brexit exercise is in a different context. This hardly needs saying. What would be a mistake is to think that there aren't hundreds of millions of Chinese who would choose the status quo, and would find democracy a risk too far. Sadly.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,391
    algarkirk said:

    dixiedean said:

    It's no wonder Brexit isn't a success since Brexiters on here can't agree what on Earth it was about in the first place.

    They don't have to. Brexiteers only have to point out the the future of the UK is a matter for the democratic process, and that Brexit restores us to the situation where we are not being legislated for, and where no court is higher than our own.

    Politically the most interesting question (we may wait some time) is the Labour approach to the matter. At what point does this silence become so deafening that SKS has to respond?

    BTW the much trailed big speech of SKS today did nor more than emphasise a few political objectives of the sort no-one short of Stalin or Pol Pot could find objection to, and to remind us that SKS loves flag and country.

    Yebbut compared to his predecessor, thats a point that needs to be made :)
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,422
    edited January 4

    It doesn't seem that implausible to me that some form of intelligence might want to see without being seen too clearly. This could apply to anyone and anything.

    Anonymous posters on PB, for example. :)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,904
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It doesn't seem that implausible to me that some form of intelligence might want to see without being seen too clearly. This could apply to anyone and anything.

    One of the more plausible subsets of the "it's aliens" theory is that it isn't actually alien beings we are sort-of witnessing, but autonomous alien drones, sent out to observe other life around the galaxy, or even the universe, and then send the data back home

    That overcomes all the time/distance problems. This advanced civilisation could be 80,000 light years away, but they sent these probes 80,000 years ago. It also explains some of the G-forces observed, which would crush most conceivable organic life, as we understand it

    The drones may contain AI of course, which adds another layer

    Maybe they're here because they heard what a terrific idea Brexit was?
    At the time they left mankind had not even come down from the trees to go on to the plains so it seems unlikely. If there are aliens here they have found some way to overcome the speed of light limitation. Nothing else is really possible.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    It doesn't seem that implausible to me that some form of intelligence might want to see without being seen too clearly. This could apply to anyone and anything.

    One of the more plausible subsets of the "it's aliens" theory is that it isn't actually alien beings we are sort-of witnessing, but autonomous alien drones, sent out to observe other life around the galaxy, or even the universe, and then send the data back home

    That overcomes all the time/distance problems. This advanced civilisation could be 80,000 light years away, but they sent these probes 80,000 years ago. It also explains some of the G-forces observed, which would crush most conceivable organic life, as we understand it

    The drones may contain AI of course, which adds another layer

    Oh, that's massively more plausible than actual sentient beings.

    By far the most likely alien scenario is that automated drones were sent to the 10,000 most likely places for intelligent life to develop to watch and report back.

    We could well have drones from tens of different civilizations watching us and reporting back.
    Yes, I find it one of the much likelier explanations. Indeed we know this is happening somewhere in the universe, already, BECAUSE WE ARE DOING IT

    So why shouldn't other more advanced civilisations on other planets do the same as us, only better? They will. So maybe that's what we are seeing
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    It doesn't seem that implausible to me that some form of intelligence might want to see without being seen too clearly. This could apply to anyone and anything.

    One of the more plausible subsets of the "it's aliens" theory is that it isn't actually alien beings we are sort-of witnessing, but autonomous alien drones, sent out to observe other life around the galaxy, or even the universe, and then send the data back home

    That overcomes all the time/distance problems. This advanced civilisation could be 80,000 light years away, but they sent these probes 80,000 years ago. It also explains some of the G-forces observed, which would crush most conceivable organic life, as we understand it

    The drones may contain AI of course, which adds another layer

    Oh, that's massively more plausible than actual sentient beings.

    By far the most likely alien scenario is that automated drones were sent to the 10,000 most likely places for intelligent life to develop to watch and report back.

    We could well have drones from tens of different civilizations watching us and reporting back.
    YouTube back home must be buzzing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,491
    Scott_xP said:

    algarkirk said:

    Politically the most interesting question (we may wait some time) is the Labour approach to the matter. At what point does this silence become so deafening that SKS has to respond?

    The Labour response is simple.

    "Brexit, as delivered by BoZo and chums, is shit."
    Starmer needs a policy on brexit, not some silly comment

    I am really interested in how Labour address this important issue
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735
    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It doesn't seem that implausible to me that some form of intelligence might want to see without being seen too clearly. This could apply to anyone and anything.

    One of the more plausible subsets of the "it's aliens" theory is that it isn't actually alien beings we are sort-of witnessing, but autonomous alien drones, sent out to observe other life around the galaxy, or even the universe, and then send the data back home

    That overcomes all the time/distance problems. This advanced civilisation could be 80,000 light years away, but they sent these probes 80,000 years ago. It also explains some of the G-forces observed, which would crush most conceivable organic life, as we understand it

    The drones may contain AI of course, which adds another layer

    Maybe they're here because they heard what a terrific idea Brexit was?
    At the time they left mankind had not even come down from the trees to go on to the plains so it seems unlikely. If there are aliens here they have found some way to overcome the speed of light limitation. Nothing else is really possible.
    No: autonomous drones, as I say. Overcomes the speed of light issue
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076
    algarkirk said:

    dixiedean said:

    It's no wonder Brexit isn't a success since Brexiters on here can't agree what on Earth it was about in the first place.

    They don't have to. Brexiteers only have to point out the the future of the UK is a matter for the democratic process, and that Brexit restores us to the situation where we are not being legislated for, and where no court is higher than our own.

    Politically the most interesting question (we may wait some time) is the Labour approach to the matter. At what point does this silence become so deafening that SKS has to respond?

    BTW the much trailed big speech of SKS today did nor more than emphasise a few political objectives of the sort no-one short of Stalin or Pol Pot could find objection to, and to remind us that SKS loves flag and country.

    I fear they do.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,387
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyone who claims that they can identify any economic effect of Brexit for good or ill at the present time is delusional. We have gone through storm Arwen and have worse to come and we are arguing about a gentle offshore breeze. It’s absurd.

    What does the mountain of red tape throttling our trade have to do with Arwen? And aren't you Tories the people who spent decades working to remove said red tape?
    Our trade is being throttled by most of our major customers being in recession or, at best, partial recovery and by disruption of supplies from China and the Far East.

    These have been massive effects and I predict that there is a lot more disruption to come. It is not paperwork, such as that required by our non EU markets both before and after we left that is causing the decline.

    Our economy also grew quite strongly this year, faster than any of the larger economies in Europe. Do I claim that is a benefit of Brexit? Will I claim it when we continue to outgrow the EU average next year? Nope. There are far more important factors at play.
    Though in the Remainiacs favourite journal, there was this interesting piece on how our trade performance has compared to other similar countries across the covid pandemic:

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1534017/UK-trade-data-post-Brexit-GDP-EU-evg

    I think thrived may be overdoing it slightly, but it has done better than us for sure.

    How much of that is Brexit, and how much is Covid related is the big question.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    edited January 4

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    That linked Telegraph piece also uses the hated (by me) form, one year anniversary:-
    The big prize remains an agreement with America but as the one-year anniversary of Joe Biden’s inauguration approaches, a transatlantic tie-up remains as far beyond our reach as ever.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/04/time-running-prove-brexit-not-historic-failure/ (£££)

    No it doesn't, Leave voters voted to regain sovereignty, end free movement and leave the CFP. All achieved. Very few of them voted for a trade deal with the USA
    They did, however, do so on the back of promises of “all the same benefits”, “frictionless trade” and “no border in the Irish Sea”, not to mention lots of extra dosh for the NHS achieved without having to shove up NI to pay for it. Plus a better deal for our farmers and fishermen.
    We now have a trade deal with the EU. Extra money is going into the NHS. Fishermen can keep more of their catch now we have left the CFP.

    Plus you would be the first to complain about cheap, mass produced, chemical filled US meat arriving here after a US trade deal and hitting our farmers
    Its the "trade deal" with the EU which is causing the upset. Largely the status quo ante but with reams of expensive red tape and delays.
    The only alternative would be to back in the single market with free movement and/or in a customs union and unable to do any new trade deals at all. Hardly what Leavers voted for in either case
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446
    algarkirk said:

    dixiedean said:

    It's no wonder Brexit isn't a success since Brexiters on here can't agree what on Earth it was about in the first place.

    They don't have to. Brexiteers only have to point out the the future of the UK is a matter for the democratic process, and that Brexit restores us to the situation where we are not being legislated for, and where no court is higher than our own.

    Politically the most interesting question (we may wait some time) is the Labour approach to the matter. At what point does this silence become so deafening that SKS has to respond?

    BTW the much trailed big speech of SKS today did nor more than emphasise a few political objectives of the sort no-one short of Stalin or Pol Pot could find objection to, and to remind us that SKS loves flag and country.

    You are trying to exaggerate, but a credible assurance that he does not want to put Jews into death camps makes him more electable than his predecessor.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,144

    Starmer needs a policy on brexit, not some silly comment

    BoZo policy was "Get It Done"

    And Starmer's point is that is not working out too well.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,932
    edited January 4
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I see we are back to hysterical conspiracy theories about Xian on here.

    Jesus wept. It’s the Olympics. Move on FFS.

    Look, I know that you are shitting yourself, like Topping and Ian, but I can't help the fact a genuine mystery is unfolding in Xi'an. Which is probably Omicron, but possibly not

    And it's not like this isn't a major news story (whatever the cause) - if they have Omicron and they can't control it - or they need to lockdown large chunks of China to do so - that is going to have serious consequences for the global economy, as supply chains fail, again. So we can't really "move on"
    Two possible scenarios:

    1) The several people trying to reply rationally and calmly to one person's hysterical outpourings are shitting themselves; or
    2) The one person responsible for said hysterical outpouring is shitting himself.

    Tough call. Or are we all projecting.
    You lot always miss the bigger picture. Let’s take the benign version. This is just omicron. That China is taking these steps in Xian indicates they may very likely be prepared to announce a nationwide lockdown before Chinese New Year, given we all probably agree it’s a bugger to contain it once it’s out there.

    What we know of the underlying virulence of omicron says that this might all be unjustified but it’s tricky to say for sure given we haven’t seen it properly in action in a country with no immunity and little in the way of western approved vaccines.

    A Chinese nationwide lockdown most likely causes a global recession this year.

    There are less benign versions of this story than a global recession this year, whether you want to hear them or not.

    Sure, VHF is endemic in Shanxi. But only strains that spread from rodents to humans.
    We shall have to wait and see. But yes I hold my hand up as I for one didn't at first buy into the whole aliens thing and I am ashamed of that.
    Well we still don’t know enough about UAP to equate them with aliens, however much some of us might think the evidence points that way. What almost all of you refused to take on board, now underlined by the new Congressional legislation passed last week (Gillibrand Amendment to the National Defense Authorisation Act), is that the organs of power in the US are taking UAPs very seriously indeed. Even as you lot laugh it all off.
    I think they're taking it seriously because it's a tactical ruse of their own making. We're going to see lots of extraordinary stories as the USA desperately tries to cling on to its world dominance. They're not going to drift into genteel insignificance the way that Britain did.
    That’s quite the conspiracy theory, given the breadth of politicians and military officials across both time and the left-right spectrum that would need to be involved. Could be you’re right of course. Or could be that when such a range of credible figures say there is observed ultra tech in the skies and oceans that’s not theirs and “needs advances in science to identify”, that we should take what they say at face value.

    I don’t follow US politics as closely as some here but can’t be often that an initiative that is apparently opposed by the Executive, passes both houses in such an overwhelming bipartisan fashion.
    I’m much more sympathetic to your position than many on here, as you know, however your argument here doesn’t quite stand. Because ANY explanation for UAP is going to sound outlandish, will give off conspiracy theory vibes, and will encounter Normalcy Bias

    To name the most prominent:

    1. The entire US military has been suffering multiple simultaneous technical glitches and mass hallucinations for decades and no one in power in America realises this

    2. The elite in America have gone collectively and weirdly mad in exactly the same way, across the political spectrum, as they face the superiority of China, or something

    3. The Chinese have developed incredible 30,000mph aircraft, which also go underwater, and they’ve managed to keep this quiet since 1950

    4. We are being visited and observed by non-human technology

    Which is more, or less, likely? They are all extremely difficult to swallow
    No they aren't. The US is constantly trying these sorts of silly stunts - during the Arab Spring protests there are 'signs and wonders' on film, such as the four horsemen of the apocalypse appearing during one of the protests, and (affaicr) the Holy Spirit appearing as a dove above a Church in Egypt. All extremely unsubtle holographic projections. This is just more of the same. Unless you think an advanced race of aliens has travelled thousands of lightyears (or whatever it is) to appear as some blobs of light giving US sailors a turn.
    This really isn't a remotely similar situation
    Not similar, the same. Alien disclosure it just the latest world domination plan some idiot at The Pentagon has dreamed up as a use of the current superiority of US military technology. If and when ET actually descends the gangplank and says hello, the whole scene will be so unsubtle and Hollywood-esque, the world will cringe collectively.
    OK.... And they've roped in several former presidents, CIA directors, top generals and admirals, senators, journalists, TV people, indeed thousands of senior members of the US politico-military-media elite, from all sides of the party spectrum, and they've got them all together and they've said "hey look guys, we're gonna pretend we believe in aliens, to freak out the Chinese, for some purpose we don't know yet, it will make you look mad, but go with it" - and they all agreed?

    Quite a reach, but who knows. You could be right

    As I said, any explanation that covers all the bases sounds rather mad. Like yours
    I don't suppose the rank and file eye witnesses have been 'roped in'; they'll have seen what they've seen. As for the others, they're pretty much the definition of 'roped in' aren't they? They'll say any old shite that's on this week's memo. It would be interesting to see the timeline of when these sightings began to become so frequent. I use the term 'interesting' loosely of course.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It doesn't seem that implausible to me that some form of intelligence might want to see without being seen too clearly. This could apply to anyone and anything.

    One of the more plausible subsets of the "it's aliens" theory is that it isn't actually alien beings we are sort-of witnessing, but autonomous alien drones, sent out to observe other life around the galaxy, or even the universe, and then send the data back home

    That overcomes all the time/distance problems. This advanced civilisation could be 80,000 light years away, but they sent these probes 80,000 years ago. It also explains some of the G-forces observed, which would crush most conceivable organic life, as we understand it

    The drones may contain AI of course, which adds another layer

    If they had that kind of tech, why would they ever be anything other than AI? They could send out millions all over the galaxy and wait to see if owt interesting was found to be worth settling, invading, civilising, annihilating. Or whatever.
    Like Europe did from the 15 the Century onwards.
    Yes, quite

    Like Noah sending out that dove to find land. Like Portuguese caravels heading down the African coast. Like basically any exploratory civilisation that has ever existed. This is how it is done

    Send out expendable "life forms" into the unknown. Wait and see if they come back, or at least send back a letter
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 992

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyone who claims that they can identify any economic effect of Brexit for good or ill at the present time is delusional. We have gone through storm Arwen and have worse to come and we are arguing about a gentle offshore breeze. It’s absurd.

    What does the mountain of red tape throttling our trade have to do with Arwen? And aren't you Tories the people who spent decades working to remove said red tape?
    Our trade is being throttled by most of our major customers being in recession or, at best, partial recovery and by disruption of supplies from China and the Far East.

    These have been massive effects and I predict that there is a lot more disruption to come. It is not paperwork, such as that required by our non EU markets both before and after we left that is causing the decline.

    Our economy also grew quite strongly this year, faster than any of the larger economies in Europe. Do I claim that is a benefit of Brexit? Will I claim it when we continue to outgrow the EU average next year? Nope. There are far more important factors at play.
    "It is not paperwork". You are a lawyer. I am an importer/exporter. I can assure you that it is paperwork. You might be willing to dismiss it as an issue, sadly that doesn't dismiss it as an issue, I wish it did...
    Surely, the fundamental difference between you and @DavidL is that, as an importer/exporter, paperwork reduces your profits, whereas, as a lawyer, paperwork (the more the better) increases DavidL’s profits.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,144
    METRO: PM: We can ride it out #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1478482293354377221/photo/1
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyone who claims that they can identify any economic effect of Brexit for good or ill at the present time is delusional. We have gone through storm Arwen and have worse to come and we are arguing about a gentle offshore breeze. It’s absurd.

    What does the mountain of red tape throttling our trade have to do with Arwen? And aren't you Tories the people who spent decades working to remove said red tape?
    Our trade is being throttled by most of our major customers being in recession or, at best, partial recovery and by disruption of supplies from China and the Far East.

    These have been massive effects and I predict that there is a lot more disruption to come. It is not paperwork, such as that required by our non EU markets both before and after we left that is causing the decline.

    Our economy also grew quite strongly this year, faster than any of the larger economies in Europe. Do I claim that is a benefit of Brexit? Will I claim it when we continue to outgrow the EU average next year? Nope. There are far more important factors at play.
    Err…that was because it fell further in the first place (or, more likely, both the larger downswing and larger recovery were because of the way we do the measuring)

    A startling statistic - since the Brexit vote, the Uk stock market is up about 5% and the US stock market up about 105%
    Yes, but that isn't much to do with Brexit. The FTSE is heavy on mining and extraction industries, as well as banks and financial services, but hardly any tech companies and that is where the share growth/bubble of the last 5 years has been. Many FTSE 100 companies earnings are from overseas (70% by memory) so don't particularly reflect the domestic economy.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    HYUFD said:

    Check out this Twitter thread (and note the date)

    When I was Chair of the Assembly I once had an insane lunch with Boris Johnson and Prince Andrew. After we escorted him out the building BJ turned to me and said. "I'm the last person to be a republican but fuck. If I ever have to spend another lunch like that I soon will be."

    https://twitter.com/DarrenJohnson66/status/1167449383706791936

    Andrew said the QEII Centre was too small, Boris said if it is that is your mum's fault, at which point Andrew stuck his tongue out at Boris.
    https://twitter.com/DarrenJohnson66/status/1167535329915670529?s=20
    It must have come as a shock to him, not to be the least mature person in the room?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishermen can keep more of their catch

    They can't fucking sell it, which is rather the point of being a fisherman...
    Of course they can, to the domestic market and they are not banned from selling it to the EU either
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,491
    Scott_xP said:

    Starmer needs a policy on brexit, not some silly comment

    BoZo policy was "Get It Done"

    And Starmer's point is that is not working out too well.
    And then what is his answer

    I want to see a better relationship with the EU but until Labour lay out a policy the situation is stalemate
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishermen can keep more of their catch

    They can't fucking sell it, which is rather the point of being a fisherman...
    Of course they can, to the domestic market and they are not banned from selling it to the EU either
    Overlooking the minor problem that it may well have gone off by the time it is allowed through to get there?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,391

    Scott_xP said:

    algarkirk said:

    Politically the most interesting question (we may wait some time) is the Labour approach to the matter. At what point does this silence become so deafening that SKS has to respond?

    The Labour response is simple.

    "Brexit, as delivered by BoZo and chums, is shit."
    Starmer needs a policy on brexit, not some silly comment

    I am really interested in how Labour address this important issue
    They already have the policy: "Make Brexit Work".

    They can list all of the stupid, then we get how we make them less stupid. As an example there's a simple way to get rid of the reams of red tape throttling us...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,578

    Scott_xP said:

    algarkirk said:

    Politically the most interesting question (we may wait some time) is the Labour approach to the matter. At what point does this silence become so deafening that SKS has to respond?

    The Labour response is simple.

    "Brexit, as delivered by BoZo and chums, is shit."
    Starmer needs a policy on brexit, not some silly comment

    I am really interested in how Labour address this important issue
    Yes. As of now I can't think of anything SKS/Labour has said which involves policy over matters of actual choices between rational alternatives. A preference for prosperity, opportunity, good housing, security, education, apple pie etc won't do, as no-one opposes these.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    edited January 4

    Scott_xP said:

    Starmer needs a policy on brexit, not some silly comment

    BoZo policy was "Get It Done"

    And Starmer's point is that is not working out too well.
    And then what is his answer

    I want to see a better relationship with the EU but until Labour lay out a policy the situation is stalemate
    Labour's policy will be rejoin a Customs Union with the EU as the vast majority of Labour MPs voted for in the last Parliament
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,762

    Check out this Twitter thread (and note the date)

    When I was Chair of the Assembly I once had an insane lunch with Boris Johnson and Prince Andrew. After we escorted him out the building BJ turned to me and said. "I'm the last person to be a republican but fuck. If I ever have to spend another lunch like that I soon will be."

    https://twitter.com/DarrenJohnson66/status/1167449383706791936

    Yep.



    I see I must re-calibrate my c*ntometer.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,607
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    We left the EU - for reals - about 15 months ago. And in that time there's been a fairly major development that's affected the whole world.

    Sorting out what is Brexit, what is Covid, etc., will take some time.

    It is possible that - in a decade's time - we will have slipped far behind the continental economies, and that Brexit will look like a very costly folly. It is equally possible that we will have soared, while they have stagnated (or worse).

    That graph about fading British exports is quite striking, however, in comparison to our peers

    The big story is immigration, however. If HMG can't get a grip on the Channel then they have literally "lost control" of the borders and many Leavers will think Fuck it, what WAS the point?
    That is equally absurd. The immigration issue was the right to free movement in the EU. No one ever pretended that it was going to solve illegal immigration which was an issue when we were members. It is simply irrelevant to that issue.
    Naive. The Leave vote was very definitely premised on "taking back control of our borders" as Farage and others made clear

    And it won partly for that reason - and partly because people like me cared about sovereignty (I was sad to see the end of FoM, had no problem with Polish plumbers, but I respect the vote and intent of those that did)

    You can't get a more spectacular illustration of "losing control of the borders" than, er, "losing control of the borders" - as in tens of thousands of illegal immigrants just sailing up to our shores and not getting removed. At times it can look like an "invasion"

    If the Tories can't get a handle on this ASAP then Leave voters who really care about immigration WILL punish them, and they will also ask What was Brexit FOR?
    Excellent question.

    One of the better arguments for Brexit was that, by bringing decisions from Brussels to Westminster, we the people would be better able to impose our democratic will on the politicians. There are some echoes of that in the public anger about Sirtonyblair; lots of people don't like him/never voted for him and now resent him being tossed a bauble.

    And at least a chunk of the 52%, and of the Johnson majority, were about keeping undocumented foreigners out. It doesn't matter that doing that would come at a hefty financial and ethical cost. A bit like the US Trade Deal that the Telegraph writer in the header is after; we could get a deal tomorrow, but it would be a terrible deal for the UK.

    So the government's support includes people who are very clear what they don't want, and aren't going to be happy if they fail to not get it, reality be dammed. I wouldn't fancy being a Conservative canvasser telling such voters that they've got A Brexit and should be thankful for that.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,991

    Only £12m for Trippier lol. Bargain.

    What’s his salary ?

    I do think it’s a good signing.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,391
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    That linked Telegraph piece also uses the hated (by me) form, one year anniversary:-
    The big prize remains an agreement with America but as the one-year anniversary of Joe Biden’s inauguration approaches, a transatlantic tie-up remains as far beyond our reach as ever.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/04/time-running-prove-brexit-not-historic-failure/ (£££)

    No it doesn't, Leave voters voted to regain sovereignty, end free movement and leave the CFP. All achieved. Very few of them voted for a trade deal with the USA
    They did, however, do so on the back of promises of “all the same benefits”, “frictionless trade” and “no border in the Irish Sea”, not to mention lots of extra dosh for the NHS achieved without having to shove up NI to pay for it. Plus a better deal for our farmers and fishermen.
    We now have a trade deal with the EU. Extra money is going into the NHS. Fishermen can keep more of their catch now we have left the CFP.

    Plus you would be the first to complain about cheap, mass produced, chemical filled US meat arriving here after a US trade deal and hitting our farmers
    Its the "trade deal" with the EU which is causing the upset. Largely the status quo ante but with reams of expensive red tape and delays.
    The only alternative would be to back in the single market with free movement and/or in a customs union and unable to do any new trade deals at all. Hardly what Leavers voted for in either case
    We've already established that the man on the street voted to take back control. Not for new trade deals - they didn't understand the existing trade deals anyway.
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