Completely off topic for those accountants out there or anyone else who knows.
I am completing a self-assessment form for my wife and it's the first year as self-employed. However, when I click on self-employed on the online site, it will not let me continue without listing my wife's business name, which she doesn't have one because she is acting as a sole trader, not a limited company. Anyone have any ideas what I need to do?
Her business name can just be her name as a sole trader.
Virtually a 4 way toss-up to face Macron for the runoff although it could be an outlier for Mélenchon.
If, say, the Left coalesced around Melenchon, and a 3 way split Right led to the 2 M's in a runoff, then the reverse ferreting would be a veritable stampede. Vive Emmanuel! Defender of liberte. And all that is right and proper! Won't happen, but would be a right laugh.
Pecresse and Zemmour voters would likely vote for Macron over Melenchon but lots of Le Pen voters would vote for Melenchon over Macron.
If Melenchon does too well however and takes votes from Macron you could equally end up with a Pecresse v Le Pen or Zemmour runoff
In that poll Macrons share was up 3%. He isn't losing votes to Melenchon, at least not net.
He is pretty nailed on for the final 2, and of the others only Pecresse is a real threat.
I see we are back to hysterical conspiracy theories about Xian on here.
Jesus wept. It’s the Olympics. Move on FFS.
Look, I know that you are shitting yourself, like Topping and Ian, but I can't help the fact a genuine mystery is unfolding in Xi'an. Which is probably Omicron, but possibly not
And it's not like this isn't a major news story (whatever the cause) - if they have Omicron and they can't control it - or they need to lockdown large chunks of China to do so - that is going to have serious consequences for the global economy, as supply chains fail, again. So we can't really "move on"
Two possible scenarios:
1) The several people trying to reply rationally and calmly to one person's hysterical outpourings are shitting themselves; or 2) The one person responsible for said hysterical outpouring is shitting himself.
Tough call. Or are we all projecting.
You lot always miss the bigger picture. Let’s take the benign version. This is just omicron. That China is taking these steps in Xian indicates they may very likely be prepared to announce a nationwide lockdown before Chinese New Year, given we all probably agree it’s a bugger to contain it once it’s out there.
What we know of the underlying virulence of omicron says that this might all be unjustified but it’s tricky to say for sure given we haven’t seen it properly in action in a country with no immunity and little in the way of western approved vaccines.
A Chinese nationwide lockdown most likely causes a global recession this year.
There are less benign versions of this story than a global recession this year, whether you want to hear them or not.
Sure, VHF is endemic in Shanxi. But only strains that spread from rodents to humans.
We shall have to wait and see. But yes I hold my hand up as I for one didn't at first buy into the whole aliens thing and I am ashamed of that.
Well we still don’t know enough about UAP to equate them with aliens, however much some of us might think the evidence points that way. What almost all of you refused to take on board, now underlined by the new Congressional legislation passed last week (Gillibrand Amendment to the National Defense Authorisation Act), is that the organs of power in the US are taking UAPs very seriously indeed. Even as you lot laugh it all off.
I think they're taking it seriously because it's a tactical ruse of their own making. We're going to see lots of extraordinary stories as the USA desperately tries to cling on to its world dominance. They're not going to drift into genteel insignificance the way that Britain did.
That’s quite the conspiracy theory, given the breadth of politicians and military officials across both time and the left-right spectrum that would need to be involved. Could be you’re right of course. Or could be that when such a range of credible figures say there is observed ultra tech in the skies and oceans that’s not theirs and “needs advances in science to identify”, that we should take what they say at face value.
I don’t follow US politics as closely as some here but can’t be often that an initiative that is apparently opposed by the Executive, passes both houses in such an overwhelming bipartisan fashion.
I’m much more sympathetic to your position than many on here, as you know, however your argument here doesn’t quite stand. Because ANY explanation for UAP is going to sound outlandish, will give off conspiracy theory vibes, and will encounter Normalcy Bias
To name the most prominent:
1. The entire US military has been suffering multiple simultaneous technical glitches and mass hallucinations for decades and no one in power in America realises this
2. The elite in America have gone collectively and weirdly mad in exactly the same way, across the political spectrum, as they face the superiority of China, or something
3. The Chinese have developed incredible 30,000mph aircraft, which also go underwater, and they’ve managed to keep this quiet since 1950
4. We are being visited and observed by non-human technology
Which is more, or less, likely? They are all extremely difficult to swallow
No they aren't. The US is constantly trying these sorts of silly stunts - during the Arab Spring protests there are 'signs and wonders' on film, such as the four horsemen of the apocalypse appearing during one of the protests, and (affaicr) the Holy Spirit appearing as a dove above a Church in Egypt. All extremely unsubtle holographic projections. This is just more of the same. Unless you think an advanced race of aliens has travelled thousands of lightyears (or whatever it is) to appear as some blobs of light giving US sailors a turn.
I think you would be well served in doing some further research on exactly what has been observed, by which instruments / eye witnesses and also when. You’ve moved on from the last thread of a grand conspiracy involving most of the US political elites, to one where they’ve all been hoodwinked over decades by someone re-enacting the plot of Spiderman Far From Home.
I do find it curious that at a time when we've gone from literally no-one carrying cameras around with them, to a situation where more than four billion people carry cameras, and almost everything that happens is captured on a smartphone, that we're not seeing more videos from individuals.
Almost all the stuff we've seen has come from the US military. Which is weird, because there's only a few hundred thousand of them.
It’s not just the US military but other militaries. For decades whenever citizens shared their own photos, it got brushed aside as fake, “we need something credible!”.
So now there’s multi million dollar multiple spectrum military imaging, backed up by radar telemetry and multiple eye witnesses (including top gun instructors). And if senior US officials (up to Cabinet and Gang of 8 level) are to be believed, corroborating sonar and satellite imagery.
And your refrain is; nah where are all the iPhones videos!
The Galileo Project should settle a few things. Citizen science to replicate the US satellite imaging capability.
Is there intelligent life out there?
Almost certainly.
Is some trace of it here on earth?
It's a possibility, but the universe is a very big place.
Is it likelier to be sentient beings or AI drones?
Obviously the latter: it's multiple orders of magnitude more likely to be un-...aliened.. craft.
Are the pictures from the US military evidence of alien life?
Not really. The utter vastness of space is far, far better evidence for intelligent life than a few green blobs on US military sensors.
Why haven't the millions of CCTV cameras recording 24 hours a day or the bullions of people with smartphones seen anything convincing?
Realistically, because if things from alien civilizations are here, then they're going to be evading detection and absorbing information.
How does that fit with wild gyrations from aliens on US military videos?
Completely off topic for those accountants out there or anyone else who knows.
I am completing a self-assessment form for my wife and it's the first year as self-employed. However, when I click on self-employed on the online site, it will not let me continue without listing my wife's business name, which she doesn't have one because she is acting as a sole trader, not a limited company. Anyone have any ideas what I need to do?
Totally off the top of my head - put her full name in as the business name.
James Melville @JamesMelville · 1h SAGE modelling projected up to 6,000 daily Covid deaths in January without any further lockdown restrictions. Today, the official number of total Covid deaths in the UK was 48.
===
The public inquiry, when it ever happens, must look into modelling, SAGE, scientists speaking in a personal capacity, lack of outside testing of models, lack of real world data input etc etc etc.
How long can we go on governing like this?
Yes, but that is quite a misleading figure in the headline. SAGE predicted between 600 and 6000 deaths per day at the peak.
The publication was written before there was decent evidence of the reduced mortality of Omicron or that vaccines would mitigate it. Fortunately it seems so, but that wasn't obvious when the evidence was being drawn up.
I suspect that deaths will peak lower than their lower end, but not by a great deal.
600-6,000 is a pretty big spread. Presumably, this was a 95% confidence interval, although I don't think I've seen that stated explicitly. The width of the stated range was probably a fair reflection of the uncertainty present at the time the model was run; unfortunately, by the time decisions needed to be taken, this was no longer the case. The wider modelling process would therefore not be fit for purpose, as it can't respond quickly enough in a crisis. This is probably a structural problem with the way Government works, and can't be fixed without cultural changes that border on "revolution".
Reality being outside the modelled confidence interval once obviously says nothing about the quality of the modelling in general. The wider question is this: is there evidence that the modelling was systemically biased towards prudence throughout the pandemic? If so, given the reliance on model results to guide policy, are the models fit for purpose, and if not, what changes need to be made to ensure the mean results coincide with realistic best estimates?
A dog saved a hiker injured in the Croatian mountains by lying on top of him for 13 hours until they were rescued, according to local media.
The dog, called North, kept Grga Brkic warm after he fell while out hiking and was unable to move. The other two hikers with him were unable to reach them, so they raised the alarm.
First responders credited the eight-month-old Alaskan Malamute with having helped keep Brkic safe.
It doesn't seem that implausible to me that some form of intelligence might want to see without being seen too clearly. This could apply to anyone and anything.
One of the more plausible subsets of the "it's aliens" theory is that it isn't actually alien beings we are sort-of witnessing, but autonomous alien drones, sent out to observe other life around the galaxy, or even the universe, and then send the data back home
That overcomes all the time/distance problems. This advanced civilisation could be 80,000 light years away, but they sent these probes 80,000 years ago. It also explains some of the G-forces observed, which would crush most conceivable organic life, as we understand it
The drones may contain AI of course, which adds another layer
Maybe they're here because they heard what a terrific idea Brexit was?
At the time they left mankind had not even come down from the trees to go on to the plains so it seems unlikely. If there are aliens here they have found some way to overcome the speed of light limitation. Nothing else is really possible.
No: autonomous drones, as I say. Overcomes the speed of light issue
No it doesn’t. and any report they send home would take 80k years to get there. If they are here they must have a better way. I completely accept that better way may be much more suitable for drones than living creatures though. If they went through a wormhole, for example, machines might survive things that no living creature could.
Er, what?
There are billions and billions of planets that might harbour life. On some of them there might be civilisations that have endured 500,000 years. 100 million years. If they have proper AI they might be immortal and invulnerable. Sending out a probe to report back in 200,000 years would mean nothing
You lack imagination
Yep. Captain Cook sailed off and didn't come back for three years. And that was just on Earth. A question. If we had similar tech which could only report back in say 10 000 years (and there's no reason to assume they don't have tech to make that quicker), which could be sent out in many myriads of directions, would we do it? I reckon we would. Because that's pretty much what we do already on an admittedly tiny scale. It's what the Voyager programme was. It's what the first fishermen who left sight of land did too.
The courage to make those migrations across the Pacific for the first time. Quite astonishing.
Its a fascinating subject, of which I've merely scratched the surface. Managing to entirely by-pass Australia. Simply stopping for around 500 years having reached as far as Tonga (The Long Pause being the historical event around which Disney film Moana is built). Then the later epic striking out to Easter Island, New Zealand and, unbelievably, Hawaii.
Virtually a 4 way toss-up to face Macron for the runoff although it could be an outlier for Mélenchon.
If, say, the Left coalesced around Melenchon, and a 3 way split Right led to the 2 M's in a runoff, then the reverse ferreting would be a veritable stampede. Vive Emmanuel! Defender of liberte. And all that is right and proper! Won't happen, but would be a right laugh.
I think Macron would win easily against Melenchon but it would still be better for democracy (in terms of turnout etc) than a runoff with Le Pen or especially Zemmour.
I'm not sure about how far apart Pecresse and Macron would be in reality, obviously Pecresse is wooing Le Pen votes to get into the runoff.
No it doesn't, certainly not for British consumers who have more British fish to eat
They are not eating it.
UK fish consumption has fallen since the vote.
I do my best to compensate, but I'm neither a Brexiter nor a pinnipede. As things are, if I eat any more seafood I'd start worrying. Also as I need to eat more lamb to support the farmers.
On fishing the UK - EU and Norway sign new fishing deal
Said it before. But pretty much everything China does these days, is a sign of weakness not strength. This lockdown is another. Along with dramatic "amateur" footage. No coincidence it's happened as Evergrande went tits up. Guess which one we, and they, are discussing?
I am not sure Chinese social media being stuffed with people claim they are starving is a great look for the party
Also it didn't. Evergrande first blew up several months ago and continued with missed payments etc every month. The suspension of shares only after they had already had 2 weeks of lockdown / dramatic footage from Xian had been widely circulated.
We only started talking about it here because it became clear this harsh lockdown, got harder and has been going on a lot longer than their previous clamp downs on covid outbreaks.
Completely off topic for those accountants out there or anyone else who knows.
I am completing a self-assessment form for my wife and it's the first year as self-employed. However, when I click on self-employed on the online site, it will not let me continue without listing my wife's business name, which she doesn't have one because she is acting as a sole trader, not a limited company. Anyone have any ideas what I need to do?
Totally off the top of my head - put her full name in as the business name.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
This.
Indeed, the 2016 EU referendum was the first nationwide UK election where a majority of the working class beat a majority of the middle class since Wilson beat Heath in October 1974
Completely off topic for those accountants out there or anyone else who knows.
I am completing a self-assessment form for my wife and it's the first year as self-employed. However, when I click on self-employed on the online site, it will not let me continue without listing my wife's business name, which she doesn't have one because she is acting as a sole trader, not a limited company. Anyone have any ideas what I need to do?
Her business name can just be her name as a sole trader.
Said it before. But pretty much everything China does these days, is a sign of weakness not strength. This lockdown is another. Along with dramatic "amateur" footage. No coincidence it's happened as Evergrande went tits up. Guess which one we, and they, are discussing?
If China's economy is going to blow up then people will feel the effects whether they discuss it or not.
Now, perhaps, not discussing it might allow time for certain people to get their money out
And visas for themselves and their families. I don't think China will blow up. But it is in for an almighty property correction/collapse. A pandemic, with accompanying "patriotic" draconian restrictions might be the just the thing right now.
No it doesn't, certainly not for British consumers who have more British fish to eat
They are not eating it.
UK fish consumption has fallen since the vote.
I do my best to compensate, but I'm neither a Brexiter nor a pinnipede. As things are, if I eat any more seafood I'd start worrying. Also as I need to eat more lamb to support the farmers.
On fishing the UK - EU and Norway sign new fishing deal
James Melville @JamesMelville · 1h SAGE modelling projected up to 6,000 daily Covid deaths in January without any further lockdown restrictions. Today, the official number of total Covid deaths in the UK was 48.
===
The public inquiry, when it ever happens, must look into modelling, SAGE, scientists speaking in a personal capacity, lack of outside testing of models, lack of real world data input etc etc etc.
How long can we go on governing like this?
Yes, but that is quite a misleading figure in the headline. SAGE predicted between 600 and 6000 deaths per day at the peak.
The publication was written before there was decent evidence of the reduced mortality of Omicron or that vaccines would mitigate it. Fortunately it seems so, but that wasn't obvious when the evidence was being drawn up.
I suspect that deaths will peak lower than their lower end, but not by a great deal.
But that's the problem. These models are drawn up without inputs that would give less scary outcomes e.g. as you say vax might mitigate.
It seems to me they are are always a ton of worse case scenarios even though they are presented as simply a range of possible outcomes.
The problem is not so much the models as the partial information being fed into them in the early phase of each variant.
The exacerbating factor is that media and twitter uses like Melville jump on the worst case scenario. The lower end simply doesn't create clickbait.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
But the Brexit campaign shared a lot of properties of Orwell's High/Middle/Low theory in one of the sociology lectures in 1984. Johnson/Gove/Cummings et al were the Middle, the 2nd division elite. They co-opted the Low to get Brexit, allowing them to depose the High (Cameron and co in London, plus the Brussels crew), but mainly so they could become the new High.
Completely off topic for those accountants out there or anyone else who knows.
I am completing a self-assessment form for my wife and it's the first year as self-employed. However, when I click on self-employed on the online site, it will not let me continue without listing my wife's business name, which she doesn't have one because she is acting as a sole trader, not a limited company. Anyone have any ideas what I need to do?
Her business name can just be her name as a sole trader.
Thanks Dixie
Don't put 'as above' - she'll be down as Mr. Asa Bové.
(Happened to someone in the 70s when applying for a driving licence, allegedly.)
No it doesn't, certainly not for British consumers who have more British fish to eat
They are not eating it.
UK fish consumption has fallen since the vote.
I do my best to compensate, but I'm neither a Brexiter nor a pinnipede. As things are, if I eat any more seafood I'd start worrying. Also as I need to eat more lamb to support the farmers.
On fishing the UK - EU and Norway sign new fishing deal
Said it before. But pretty much everything China does these days, is a sign of weakness not strength. This lockdown is another. Along with dramatic "amateur" footage. No coincidence it's happened as Evergrande went tits up. Guess which one we, and they, are discussing?
If China's economy is going to blow up then people will feel the effects whether they discuss it or not.
Now, perhaps, not discussing it might allow time for certain people to get their money out
And visas for themselves and their families. I don't think China will blow up. But it is in for an almighty property correction/collapse. A pandemic, with accompanying "patriotic" draconian restrictions might be the just the thing right now.
China's banks would have been declared insolvent under any western accounting standards years over but Chinese GAAP has allowed them to keep going. The Chinese Govt will not allow the banking system to collapse under any circumstances. However, a property company is probably considered manageable.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
'Somewhere between neutral to beneficial' implies at least some benefits. Care to list any?
Wage increases as the economy picked up from June last year?
Real wages are going down, or will be this coming year.
Inflation is a worldwide problem and how much worse it would be without the wage increases due to high demand for employment in the economy now cheap labour has been eliminated
James Melville @JamesMelville · 1h SAGE modelling projected up to 6,000 daily Covid deaths in January without any further lockdown restrictions. Today, the official number of total Covid deaths in the UK was 48.
===
The public inquiry, when it ever happens, must look into modelling, SAGE, scientists speaking in a personal capacity, lack of outside testing of models, lack of real world data input etc etc etc.
How long can we go on governing like this?
Yes, but that is quite a misleading figure in the headline. SAGE predicted between 600 and 6000 deaths per day at the peak.
The publication was written before there was decent evidence of the reduced mortality of Omicron or that vaccines would mitigate it. Fortunately it seems so, but that wasn't obvious when the evidence was being drawn up.
I suspect that deaths will peak lower than their lower end, but not by a great deal.
But that's the problem. These models are drawn up without inputs that would give less scary outcomes e.g. as you say vax might mitigate.
It seems to me they are are always a ton of worse case scenarios even though they are presented as simply a range of possible outcomes.
Exactly. But these models were drawn up, and informed policy, before anyone knew anything is precisely the most damning indictment.
Completely off topic for those accountants out there or anyone else who knows.
I am completing a self-assessment form for my wife and it's the first year as self-employed. However, when I click on self-employed on the online site, it will not let me continue without listing my wife's business name, which she doesn't have one because she is acting as a sole trader, not a limited company. Anyone have any ideas what I need to do?
Totally off the top of my head - put her full name in as the business name.
Long time since I was in business, but I seem to dimly recall that a sole trader could actually trade under their own name or any old name they wanted but they must not use reserved words like Ltd or PLC etc etc.
Completely off topic for those accountants out there or anyone else who knows.
I am completing a self-assessment form for my wife and it's the first year as self-employed. However, when I click on self-employed on the online site, it will not let me continue without listing my wife's business name, which she doesn't have one because she is acting as a sole trader, not a limited company. Anyone have any ideas what I need to do?
Her business name can just be her name as a sole trader.
Thanks Dixie
AIUI. And am not an expert, but have done it plenty of times. It's about the name matching the invoices if HMRC choose to audit AFAIAA.
James Melville @JamesMelville · 1h SAGE modelling projected up to 6,000 daily Covid deaths in January without any further lockdown restrictions. Today, the official number of total Covid deaths in the UK was 48.
===
The public inquiry, when it ever happens, must look into modelling, SAGE, scientists speaking in a personal capacity, lack of outside testing of models, lack of real world data input etc etc etc.
How long can we go on governing like this?
Yes, but that is quite a misleading figure in the headline. SAGE predicted between 600 and 6000 deaths per day at the peak.
The publication was written before there was decent evidence of the reduced mortality of Omicron or that vaccines would mitigate it. Fortunately it seems so, but that wasn't obvious when the evidence was being drawn up.
I suspect that deaths will peak lower than their lower end, but not by a great deal.
But that's the problem. These models are drawn up without inputs that would give less scary outcomes e.g. as you say vax might mitigate.
It seems to me they are are always a ton of worse case scenarios even though they are presented as simply a range of possible outcomes.
Exactly. But these models were drawn up, and informed policy, before anyone knew anything is precisely the most damning indictment.
The Fog of War.
If you wait for full information it is too late to act, and you become controlled by events rather than being in control of them.
If I waited for full information before acting, I would be proven right by many autopsies...
Said it before. But pretty much everything China does these days, is a sign of weakness not strength. This lockdown is another. Along with dramatic "amateur" footage. No coincidence it's happened as Evergrande went tits up. Guess which one we, and they, are discussing?
If China's economy is going to blow up then people will feel the effects whether they discuss it or not.
Now, perhaps, not discussing it might allow time for certain people to get their money out
And visas for themselves and their families. I don't think China will blow up. But it is in for an almighty property correction/collapse. A pandemic, with accompanying "patriotic" draconian restrictions might be the just the thing right now.
China's banks would have been declared insolvent under any western accounting standards years over but Chinese GAAP has allowed them to keep going. The Chinese Govt will not allow the banking system to collapse under any circumstances. However, a property company is probably considered manageable.
There is a reason they have chosen now to (finally) ban bitcoin. They know that something bad is about to go down, probably a property crash, and they want to shut down crypto as a possible avenue of capital flight.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
'Somewhere between neutral to beneficial' implies at least some benefits. Care to list any?
Wage increases as the economy picked up from June last year?
Real wages are going down, or will be this coming year.
Inflation is a worldwide problem and how much worse it would be without the wage increases due to high demand for employment in the economy now cheap labour has been eliminated
Leavers are going to tell workers they’d have been even worse off if we’d remained?
Said it before. But pretty much everything China does these days, is a sign of weakness not strength. This lockdown is another. Along with dramatic "amateur" footage. No coincidence it's happened as Evergrande went tits up. Guess which one we, and they, are discussing?
If China's economy is going to blow up then people will feel the effects whether they discuss it or not.
Now, perhaps, not discussing it might allow time for certain people to get their money out
And visas for themselves and their families. I don't think China will blow up. But it is in for an almighty property correction/collapse. A pandemic, with accompanying "patriotic" draconian restrictions might be the just the thing right now.
China's banks would have been declared insolvent under any western accounting standards years over but Chinese GAAP has allowed them to keep going. The Chinese Govt will not allow the banking system to collapse under any circumstances. However, a property company is probably considered manageable.
There is a reason they have chosen now to (finally) ban bitcoin. They know that something bad is about to go down, probably a property crash, and they want to shut down crypto as a possible avenue of capital flight.
Crypto is the scam that will crash. The only question is when.
It doesn't seem that implausible to me that some form of intelligence might want to see without being seen too clearly. This could apply to anyone and anything.
One of the more plausible subsets of the "it's aliens" theory is that it isn't actually alien beings we are sort-of witnessing, but autonomous alien drones, sent out to observe other life around the galaxy, or even the universe, and then send the data back home
That overcomes all the time/distance problems. This advanced civilisation could be 80,000 light years away, but they sent these probes 80,000 years ago. It also explains some of the G-forces observed, which would crush most conceivable organic life, as we understand it
The drones may contain AI of course, which adds another layer
Maybe they're here because they heard what a terrific idea Brexit was?
At the time they left mankind had not even come down from the trees to go on to the plains so it seems unlikely. If there are aliens here they have found some way to overcome the speed of light limitation. Nothing else is really possible.
No: autonomous drones, as I say. Overcomes the speed of light issue
No it doesn’t. and any report they send home would take 80k years to get there. If they are here they must have a better way. I completely accept that better way may be much more suitable for drones than living creatures though. If they went through a wormhole, for example, machines might survive things that no living creature could.
Er, what?
There are billions and billions of planets that might harbour life. On some of them there might be civilisations that have endured 500,000 years. 100 million years. If they have proper AI they might be immortal and invulnerable. Sending out a probe to report back in 200,000 years would mean nothing
You lack imagination
Use your brain. If the USA was really shitting itself over aliens, there wouldn't be a chorus line of the people you've identified squawking about it would there? They would cover it up. The over-choreographed hype is all the evidence you need.
They have been covering it up. For decades. They have now decided that that's pointless.
They might ALSO see an advantage in leaking this now, as it unsettles China, as China rises to supremacy. Beijing must be wondering "WTF is this? Do they really believe this? Or is this super brilliant American tech?"
So several explanations can be simultaneously "true"
We really do live in interesting times
China is also talking about this and is apparently using neural nets to help monitor. Russia has released govt reports years ago being very blunt indeed but no one takes any notice because it’s Russia. I’m quite convinced people will look back with incredulity that we were ever in ignorance/denial of what has been staring us in the face. “Those quaint people of yesteryear”.
This said, if there has been some sort of coverup I understand why. People just don’t wanna know.
The fact that you're "quite convinced" rather suggests you won't be evaluating new information impartially.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
'Somewhere between neutral to beneficial' implies at least some benefits. Care to list any?
Wage increases as the economy picked up from June last year?
Real wages are going down, or will be this coming year.
Inflation is a worldwide problem and how much worse it would be without the wage increases due to high demand for employment in the economy now cheap labour has been eliminated
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
'Somewhere between neutral to beneficial' implies at least some benefits. Care to list any?
End of free movement and regained sovereignty as most of the working class voted for.
They also replaced a pro austerity Tory government with a populist high spending Tory government too
End of free movement isn't a benefit. People might have voted for it, but it's not good. The people had votes in 2017 and 2019 to choose the nature of the government, if was not the referendum that chose a Theresa May minority and a Boris Johnson majority.
Completely off topic for those accountants out there or anyone else who knows.
I am completing a self-assessment form for my wife and it's the first year as self-employed. However, when I click on self-employed on the online site, it will not let me continue without listing my wife's business name, which she doesn't have one because she is acting as a sole trader, not a limited company. Anyone have any ideas what I need to do?
Totally off the top of my head - put her full name in as the business name.
Long time since I was in business, but I seem to dimly recall that a sole trader could actually trade under their own name or any old name they wanted but they must not use reserved words like Ltd or PLC etc etc.
Yes. Beware of trade names/pseudonyms/stage names. If you use any of them to get work probably best to put that down. Knew a posh highly priced counsellor who worked as a sole trader. Very well qualified and respected. His real name? Geoffrey Raper... Needless to say he didn't use that to attract any business.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
'Somewhere between neutral to beneficial' implies at least some benefits. Care to list any?
Look at the growth in demand for workers in industries such as hospitality and retail. Leading to increased wages.
Come on @MrEd, you're an incredibly smart poster, but pretty much *every* country in the world saw that in the second half of 2021 as people got vaccinated and Covid concerns receded.
Of course, in the US you said it would be bad for the ruling Democrats because it meant inflation, while here it's good because it's caused by Brexit.
The reality is that it will take multiple years before we can truly sort out the Brexit from the Covid. I'm optimistic that Brexit will turn out to be a medium term economic positive, but it's entirely possible - now it's all in our hands - that we elect buffoons and fuck it up.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
'Somewhere between neutral to beneficial' implies at least some benefits. Care to list any?
End of free movement and regained sovereignty as most of the working class voted for.
They also replaced a pro austerity Tory government with a populist high spending Tory government too
End of free movement isn't a benefit. People might have voted for it, but it's not good. The people had votes in 2017 and 2019 to choose the nature of the government, if was not the referendum that chose a Theresa May minority and a Boris Johnson majority.
It was not a benefit for the middle class, it was a benefit for many of the working class for whom it caused downward pressure on their wages and pressure on public services and housing
Completely off topic for those accountants out there or anyone else who knows.
I am completing a self-assessment form for my wife and it's the first year as self-employed. However, when I click on self-employed on the online site, it will not let me continue without listing my wife's business name, which she doesn't have one because she is acting as a sole trader, not a limited company. Anyone have any ideas what I need to do?
Said it before. But pretty much everything China does these days, is a sign of weakness not strength. This lockdown is another. Along with dramatic "amateur" footage. No coincidence it's happened as Evergrande went tits up. Guess which one we, and they, are discussing?
If China's economy is going to blow up then people will feel the effects whether they discuss it or not.
Now, perhaps, not discussing it might allow time for certain people to get their money out
And visas for themselves and their families. I don't think China will blow up. But it is in for an almighty property correction/collapse. A pandemic, with accompanying "patriotic" draconian restrictions might be the just the thing right now.
China's banks would have been declared insolvent under any western accounting standards years over but Chinese GAAP has allowed them to keep going. The Chinese Govt will not allow the banking system to collapse under any circumstances. However, a property company is probably considered manageable.
There is a reason they have chosen now to (finally) ban bitcoin. They know that something bad is about to go down, probably a property crash, and they want to shut down crypto as a possible avenue of capital flight.
Crypto is the scam that will crash. The only question is when.
Funny, I think the exact same thing about fiat currency...
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
But the ability, capacity and willingness to reverse it will diminish, over time, on both sides. Few divorces end in remarriage even if both sides regret it
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
Said it before. But pretty much everything China does these days, is a sign of weakness not strength. This lockdown is another. Along with dramatic "amateur" footage. No coincidence it's happened as Evergrande went tits up. Guess which one we, and they, are discussing?
If China's economy is going to blow up then people will feel the effects whether they discuss it or not.
Now, perhaps, not discussing it might allow time for certain people to get their money out
And visas for themselves and their families. I don't think China will blow up. But it is in for an almighty property correction/collapse. A pandemic, with accompanying "patriotic" draconian restrictions might be the just the thing right now.
China's banks would have been declared insolvent under any western accounting standards years over but Chinese GAAP has allowed them to keep going. The Chinese Govt will not allow the banking system to collapse under any circumstances. However, a property company is probably considered manageable.
I think the big problem in China is the shadow banking sector - i.e. Wealth Management Products - that offer 15% annual rates of return, are almost entirely unregulated, and which have been used to fund a massive construction boom.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
'Somewhere between neutral to beneficial' implies at least some benefits. Care to list any?
Wage increases as the economy picked up from June last year?
Real wages are going down, or will be this coming year.
Inflation is a worldwide problem and how much worse it would be without the wage increases due to high demand for employment in the economy now cheap labour has been eliminated
Leavers are going to tell workers they’d have been even worse off if we’d remained?
Nah, Project Fear.
I know it is off topic but our lifeboat, William F Yates, 13 - 18 has been in Cowes for sometime for upgrade and we have a substitute lifeboat stationed here in Llandudno
[snip]I'm optimistic that Brexit will turn out to be a medium term economic positive, but it's entirely possible - now it's all in our hands - that we elect buffoons and fuck it up.
Well, we have elected buffoons, but, leaving that aside, I'm fascinated by how you can possibly see any economic positive in Brexit at all. What exactly could we do (if we didn't have buffoons running the country) that we couldn't do before, and which is sufficiently powerful to offset the blindingly obvious economic downside of erecting massive barriers to trade with the huge, prosperous market on our doorstep?
Said it before. But pretty much everything China does these days, is a sign of weakness not strength. This lockdown is another. Along with dramatic "amateur" footage. No coincidence it's happened as Evergrande went tits up. Guess which one we, and they, are discussing?
If China's economy is going to blow up then people will feel the effects whether they discuss it or not.
Now, perhaps, not discussing it might allow time for certain people to get their money out
And visas for themselves and their families. I don't think China will blow up. But it is in for an almighty property correction/collapse. A pandemic, with accompanying "patriotic" draconian restrictions might be the just the thing right now.
China's banks would have been declared insolvent under any western accounting standards years over but Chinese GAAP has allowed them to keep going. The Chinese Govt will not allow the banking system to collapse under any circumstances. However, a property company is probably considered manageable.
There is a reason they have chosen now to (finally) ban bitcoin. They know that something bad is about to go down, probably a property crash, and they want to shut down crypto as a possible avenue of capital flight.
There's another - less sexy reason - why they're banning bitcoin: it's driven the price of energy up for Chinese exporters. A polysilicon purification plant that could previously make good money is paying far more for electricity than they used to, because Bitcoin miners have come in and increased demand so much.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
'Somewhere between neutral to beneficial' implies at least some benefits. Care to list any?
End of free movement and regained sovereignty as most of the working class voted for.
They also replaced a pro austerity Tory government with a populist high spending Tory government too
End of free movement isn't a benefit. People might have voted for it, but it's not good. The people had votes in 2017 and 2019 to choose the nature of the government, if was not the referendum that chose a Theresa May minority and a Boris Johnson majority.
It was not a benefit for the middle class, it was a benefit for many of the working for whom it caused downward pressure on their wages and pressure on public services and housing
Then why do pensioners vote for things like Brexit and austerity governments? They aren't worried about their wages, and if they were worried about public services then they've got a strange way of showing it. Naturally, if wages do go up due to Brexit, those public services won't get cheaper, so I don't even think the "benefits" you describe are even mutually compatible.
This is why Brexit will be a failure in the end. It cannot possibly succeed on its own terms because they are contradictory. Doubtless it will succeed on something that was promised; it could scarcely fail to.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
But the ability, capacity and willingness to reverse it will diminish, over time, on both sides. Few divorces end in remarriage even if both sides regret it
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
Moving in stages with a long period in a Norway/Switzerland position is the most likely path - with a decision point at some future date that, since we are following all the rules, we may as well set them. Although it is notable that both Norwegians and Swiss reject the final step, even when their politicians (in the former case) are sometimes interested.
A more convincing argument is that they will be very wary about taking us back.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
But the ability, capacity and willingness to reverse it will diminish, over time, on both sides. Few divorces end in remarriage even if both sides regret it
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
I think that's right (apart from your last sentence obvs).
I suspect EFTA will be the end position - mitigates most of the issues without crossing the 'we are in the EU' rubicon.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
But the ability, capacity and willingness to reverse it will diminish, over time, on both sides. Few divorces end in remarriage even if both sides regret it
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
There is almost no chance that the UK rejoins the EU. It is possible that - at some point in the future - we have a relationship with the EU that looks like Switzerland's or Norway's.
It doesn't seem that implausible to me that some form of intelligence might want to see without being seen too clearly. This could apply to anyone and anything.
One of the more plausible subsets of the "it's aliens" theory is that it isn't actually alien beings we are sort-of witnessing, but autonomous alien drones, sent out to observe other life around the galaxy, or even the universe, and then send the data back home
That overcomes all the time/distance problems. This advanced civilisation could be 80,000 light years away, but they sent these probes 80,000 years ago. It also explains some of the G-forces observed, which would crush most conceivable organic life, as we understand it
The drones may contain AI of course, which adds another layer
Maybe they're here because they heard what a terrific idea Brexit was?
At the time they left mankind had not even come down from the trees to go on to the plains so it seems unlikely. If there are aliens here they have found some way to overcome the speed of light limitation. Nothing else is really possible.
No: autonomous drones, as I say. Overcomes the speed of light issue
No it doesn’t. and any report they send home would take 80k years to get there. If they are here they must have a better way. I completely accept that better way may be much more suitable for drones than living creatures though. If they went through a wormhole, for example, machines might survive things that no living creature could.
Er, what?
There are billions and billions of planets that might harbour life. On some of them there might be civilisations that have endured 500,000 years. 100 million years. If they have proper AI they might be immortal and invulnerable. Sending out a probe to report back in 200,000 years would mean nothing
You lack imagination
Use your brain. If the USA was really shitting itself over aliens, there wouldn't be a chorus line of the people you've identified squawking about it would there? They would cover it up. The over-choreographed hype is all the evidence you need.
They have been covering it up. For decades. They have now decided that that's pointless.
They might ALSO see an advantage in leaking this now, as it unsettles China, as China rises to supremacy. Beijing must be wondering "WTF is this? Do they really believe this? Or is this super brilliant American tech?"
So several explanations can be simultaneously "true"
We really do live in interesting times
China is also talking about this and is apparently using neural nets to help monitor. Russia has released govt reports years ago being very blunt indeed but no one takes any notice because it’s Russia. I’m quite convinced people will look back with incredulity that we were ever in ignorance/denial of what has been staring us in the face. “Those quaint people of yesteryear”.
This said, if there has been some sort of coverup I understand why. People just don’t wanna know.
But what do people "not want to know"? All you or anyone else has to say on the subject is that there is some completely unspecified weird shit going on. Your "denial" point is also wrong: I am absolutely certain that the US and UK have been seriously studying this stuff for decades. You say Russia and China are. So who that matters is in denial?
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
'Somewhere between neutral to beneficial' implies at least some benefits. Care to list any?
Wage increases as the economy picked up from June last year?
Real wages are going down, or will be this coming year.
Inflation is a worldwide problem and how much worse it would be without the wage increases due to high demand for employment in the economy now cheap labour has been eliminated
Leavers are going to tell workers they’d have been even worse off if we’d remained?
Nah, Project Fear.
I know it is off topic but our lifeboat, William F Yates, 13 - 18 has been in Cowes for sometime for upgrade and we have a substitute lifeboat stationed here in Llandudno
You’re wanting me to go check how it’s coming along?
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
'Somewhere between neutral to beneficial' implies at least some benefits. Care to list any?
End of free movement and regained sovereignty as most of the working class voted for.
They also replaced a pro austerity Tory government with a populist high spending Tory government too
End of free movement isn't a benefit. People might have voted for it, but it's not good. The people had votes in 2017 and 2019 to choose the nature of the government, if was not the referendum that chose a Theresa May minority and a Boris Johnson majority.
It was not a benefit for the middle class, it was a benefit for many of the working class for whom it caused downward pressure on their wages and pressure on public services and housing
Well we can all see how pressures on public services and housing have eased since Brexit.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
But the ability, capacity and willingness to reverse it will diminish, over time, on both sides. Few divorces end in remarriage even if both sides regret it
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
There is almost no chance that the UK rejoins the EU. It is possible that - at some point in the future - we have a relationship with the EU that looks like Switzerland's or Norway's.
I don't think it will ever have any of the dynamic alignment that Switzerland has signed up to. Right now in the aftermath of COVID and with a pretty idealess government in charge that power is still in reserve, a future government may realise a lot of value from diverging in a few small but key areas.
Said it before. But pretty much everything China does these days, is a sign of weakness not strength. This lockdown is another. Along with dramatic "amateur" footage. No coincidence it's happened as Evergrande went tits up. Guess which one we, and they, are discussing?
I am not sure Chinese social media being stuffed with people claim they are starving is a great look for the party
Also it didn't. Evergrande first blew up several months ago and continued with missed payments etc every month. The suspension of shares only after they had already had 2 weeks of lockdown / dramatic footage from Xian had been widely circulated.
We only started talking about it here because it became clear this harsh lockdown, got harder and has been going on a lot longer than their previous clamp downs on covid outbreaks.
~Yes, it is possible to overdo the "awe at China's media brilliance"
Xi'an - and now the other cities - are a disaster for their image as the Zero Covid Success. People screaming from welded apartment blocks - again? Weird armies of men shooting flames at bus-stops? Overnight hospitals and concentration camps of quarantiners?
This is not good PR
Meanwhile Omicron/Covid-19-Ebola/Whatever it is, has reached their biggest port
"Update : In China, there is an outbreak in Xi'an, now also in Yuzhou (Henan province) and Ningbo (port city). In Ningbo it is the completely unknown Vietnam variant (there are 2 I think). In Xi'an and Yuzhou it is an 'unknown' Delta variant."
"@alecolarizi @AleColarizi · 14h Port city Ningbo in East China's Zhejiang Province, has shut down parts of the city due to recent epidemic surge that caused 23 infections in two days. It is the second Chinese city to implement lockdown measures in this winter outbreak following Xi'an"
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
'Somewhere between neutral to beneficial' implies at least some benefits. Care to list any?
Wage increases as the economy picked up from June last year?
Real wages are going down, or will be this coming year.
Inflation is a worldwide problem and how much worse it would be without the wage increases due to high demand for employment in the economy now cheap labour has been eliminated
Leavers are going to tell workers they’d have been even worse off if we’d remained?
Nah, Project Fear.
I know it is off topic but our lifeboat, William F Yates, 13 - 18 has been in Cowes for sometime for upgrade and we have a substitute lifeboat stationed here in Llandudno
You’re wanting me to go check how it’s coming along?
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
But the ability, capacity and willingness to reverse it will diminish, over time, on both sides. Few divorces end in remarriage even if both sides regret it
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
One thing that encourages me is that the desire to reverse Brexit remains strong and growing. There is much Bregret and feeling that Brexit was a mistake. No major English party will run on a Rejoin platform in 2024, though the LDs have that as a long term objective.
I think it will be stronger still by the 2030's. It wouldn't surprise me if we Rejoined under a Conservatve government. After all it was under the Conservatives that we joined and under the Conservatives that we enacted the Single Market. One day the Tories will realise that they are in a cul de sac, and do a 180°.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
But the ability, capacity and willingness to reverse it will diminish, over time, on both sides. Few divorces end in remarriage even if both sides regret it
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
There is almost no chance that the UK rejoins the EU. It is possible that - at some point in the future - we have a relationship with the EU that looks like Switzerland's or Norway's.
I don't think it will ever have any of the dynamic alignment that Switzerland has signed up to. Right now in the aftermath of COVID and with a pretty idealess government in charge that power is still in reserve, a future government may realise a lot of value from diverging in a few small but key areas.
Dynamic alignment with ISO standards is not impossible. Dynamic alignment with labour rules clearly would be.
It doesn't seem that implausible to me that some form of intelligence might want to see without being seen too clearly. This could apply to anyone and anything.
One of the more plausible subsets of the "it's aliens" theory is that it isn't actually alien beings we are sort-of witnessing, but autonomous alien drones, sent out to observe other life around the galaxy, or even the universe, and then send the data back home
That overcomes all the time/distance problems. This advanced civilisation could be 80,000 light years away, but they sent these probes 80,000 years ago. It also explains some of the G-forces observed, which would crush most conceivable organic life, as we understand it
The drones may contain AI of course, which adds another layer
Maybe they're here because they heard what a terrific idea Brexit was?
At the time they left mankind had not even come down from the trees to go on to the plains so it seems unlikely. If there are aliens here they have found some way to overcome the speed of light limitation. Nothing else is really possible.
No: autonomous drones, as I say. Overcomes the speed of light issue
No it doesn’t. and any report they send home would take 80k years to get there. If they are here they must have a better way. I completely accept that better way may be much more suitable for drones than living creatures though. If they went through a wormhole, for example, machines might survive things that no living creature could.
Er, what?
There are billions and billions of planets that might harbour life. On some of them there might be civilisations that have endured 500,000 years. 100 million years. If they have proper AI they might be immortal and invulnerable. Sending out a probe to report back in 200,000 years would mean nothing
You lack imagination
Doesn’t take 200,000 years to report back home if home is Earth. UAPs may be of non human earthly origin. There’s been a long time before us for Intelligience to have developed. And it would be a fun game to seed Intelligience afresh and observe what happens.
Or they make use of science currently beyond our reach. Long distance communication by quantum entanglement, or faster than light travel by manipulating spacetime (which we have observed can expand faster than light). Or something else entirely. Dimension hopping perhaps, if you’re a string theorist. Or something even stranger.
Or it’s Kissinger making holograms over the pacific because he’s engaged in a 50-year plot to troll China.
Maybe that time travelling idea wasn’t so dumb? The coming US civil war leads to a global and eventually nuclear war that almost wipes out the species; after a few centuries of Mad Max and a few more of astounding technological progress, the descendents of the survivors have come back to research how to avoid the same thing happening again….
Or their perfect utopia is so boring they hanker over messy and dangerous ...
[snip]I'm optimistic that Brexit will turn out to be a medium term economic positive, but it's entirely possible - now it's all in our hands - that we elect buffoons and fuck it up.
Well, we have elected buffoons, but, leaving that aside, I'm fascinated by how you can possibly see any economic positive in Brexit at all. What exactly could we do (if we didn't have buffoons running the country) that we couldn't do before, and which is sufficiently powerful to offset the blindingly obvious economic downside of erecting massive barriers to trade with the huge, prosperous market on our doorstep?
Well:
(1) You can have a country that isn't even recognized by most of the world, and still sell lots of stuff to them (see Taiwan)
and
(2) I believe it is better to have decisions taken as near to the people as possible, and in as transparent a way as possible.
It is entirely possible that (2) will not be enough to offset higher barriers to our neighbours in the EU (although I would note that most of our exports are of services rather than goods). But it is also far from a given that we will not be able to do a decent job of being small and nimble.
There is almost no chance that the UK rejoins the EU. It is possible that - at some point in the future - we have a relationship with the EU that looks like Switzerland's or Norway's.
We'll spend the next 10 to 15 years painfully attempting to claw back some of the lost ground, ending up with something a bit like Switzerland but less favourable. What the relationship will most have in common with Switzerland is that it will comprise a painful permanent renegotiation, carried out piecemeal. That of course was what the EU wanted to avoid, since it means lots of aggravation, but there's no prospect now of the over-arching, stable relationship founded on trust which they'd hoped to be able to reach with us.
Said it before. But pretty much everything China does these days, is a sign of weakness not strength. This lockdown is another. Along with dramatic "amateur" footage. No coincidence it's happened as Evergrande went tits up. Guess which one we, and they, are discussing?
If China's economy is going to blow up then people will feel the effects whether they discuss it or not.
Now, perhaps, not discussing it might allow time for certain people to get their money out
And visas for themselves and their families. I don't think China will blow up. But it is in for an almighty property correction/collapse. A pandemic, with accompanying "patriotic" draconian restrictions might be the just the thing right now.
China's banks would have been declared insolvent under any western accounting standards years over but Chinese GAAP has allowed them to keep going. The Chinese Govt will not allow the banking system to collapse under any circumstances. However, a property company is probably considered manageable.
There is a reason they have chosen now to (finally) ban bitcoin. They know that something bad is about to go down, probably a property crash, and they want to shut down crypto as a possible avenue of capital flight.
There's another - less sexy reason - why they're banning bitcoin: it's driven the price of energy up for Chinese exporters. A polysilicon purification plant that could previously make good money is paying far more for electricity than they used to, because Bitcoin miners have come in and increased demand so much.
Yes, that is a good point.
And none of us can get a bloody RTX 3080, either...
[snip]I'm optimistic that Brexit will turn out to be a medium term economic positive, but it's entirely possible - now it's all in our hands - that we elect buffoons and fuck it up.
Well, we have elected buffoons, but, leaving that aside, I'm fascinated by how you can possibly see any economic positive in Brexit at all. What exactly could we do (if we didn't have buffoons running the country) that we couldn't do before, and which is sufficiently powerful to offset the blindingly obvious economic downside of erecting massive barriers to trade with the huge, prosperous market on our doorstep?
Because we elect and eject all those who rule us
Independent, adaptive countries do better than states in massive blocs is a pretty good rule of thumb, tho there are exceptions, as always
But as Robert implies, we need to get the hang of being independent, and being able to act fast and cleverly because of that independence. We may entirely fail
The vaccine success is the only real example of our doing this, so far (tho it is quite a significant one). The bullshit that "we could have done this in the EU" IS bullshit. The emotional/political pressure to be in the EU vax scheme would have totally overwhelmed any Remainy government (which is what we would have had, post a Remain vote)
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
But the ability, capacity and willingness to reverse it will diminish, over time, on both sides. Few divorces end in remarriage even if both sides regret it
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
Moving in stages with a long period in a Norway/Switzerland position is the most likely path - with a decision point at some future date that, since we are following all the rules, we may as well set them. Although it is notable that both Norwegians and Swiss reject the final step, even when their politicians (in the former case) are sometimes interested.
A more convincing argument is that they will be very wary about taking us back.
Yes. I think this is an often under appreciated point. The EU would need some guarantee we are in for the long term. And no Parliament can bind it's successors. So, the prospect of Rejoin winning an election followed by Leave five years later would be reason enough to stop our hokey cokey.
Anyone who claims that they can identify any economic effect of Brexit for good or ill at the present time is delusional. We have gone through storm Arwen and have worse to come and we are arguing about a gentle offshore breeze. It’s absurd.
What does the mountain of red tape throttling our trade have to do with Arwen? And aren't you Tories the people who spent decades working to remove said red tape?
Our trade is being throttled by most of our major customers being in recession or, at best, partial recovery and by disruption of supplies from China and the Far East.
These have been massive effects and I predict that there is a lot more disruption to come. It is not paperwork, such as that required by our non EU markets both before and after we left that is causing the decline.
Our economy also grew quite strongly this year, faster than any of the larger economies in Europe. Do I claim that is a benefit of Brexit? Will I claim it when we continue to outgrow the EU average next year? Nope. There are far more important factors at play.
Err…that was because it fell further in the first place (or, more likely, both the larger downswing and larger recovery were because of the way we do the measuring)
One classic is how “output ” in Health Services are measured:
Anyone who claims that they can identify any economic effect of Brexit for good or ill at the present time is delusional. We have gone through storm Arwen and have worse to come and we are arguing about a gentle offshore breeze. It’s absurd.
What does the mountain of red tape throttling our trade have to do with Arwen? And aren't you Tories the people who spent decades working to remove said red tape?
Our trade is being throttled by most of our major customers being in recession or, at best, partial recovery and by disruption of supplies from China and the Far East.
These have been massive effects and I predict that there is a lot more disruption to come. It is not paperwork, such as that required by our non EU markets both before and after we left that is causing the decline.
Our economy also grew quite strongly this year, faster than any of the larger economies in Europe. Do I claim that is a benefit of Brexit? Will I claim it when we continue to outgrow the EU average next year? Nope. There are far more important factors at play.
Err…that was because it fell further in the first place (or, more likely, both the larger downswing and larger recovery were because of the way we do the measuring)
One classic is how “output ” in Health Services are measured:
[snip]I'm optimistic that Brexit will turn out to be a medium term economic positive, but it's entirely possible - now it's all in our hands - that we elect buffoons and fuck it up.
Well, we have elected buffoons, but, leaving that aside, I'm fascinated by how you can possibly see any economic positive in Brexit at all. What exactly could we do (if we didn't have buffoons running the country) that we couldn't do before, and which is sufficiently powerful to offset the blindingly obvious economic downside of erecting massive barriers to trade with the huge, prosperous market on our doorstep?
Because we elect and eject all those who rule us
Independent, adaptive countries do better than states in massive blocs is a pretty good rule of thumb, tho there are exceptions, as always
But as Robert implies, we need to get the hang of being independent, and being able to act fast and cleverly because of that independence. We may entirely fail
The vaccine success is the only real example of our doing this, so far (tho it is quite a significant one). The bullshit that "we could have done this in the EU" IS bullshit. The emotional/political pressure to be in the EU vax scheme would have totally overwhelmed any Remainy government (which is what we would have had, post a Remain vote)
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
But the ability, capacity and willingness to reverse it will diminish, over time, on both sides. Few divorces end in remarriage even if both sides regret it
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
There is almost no chance that the UK rejoins the EU. It is possible that - at some point in the future - we have a relationship with the EU that looks like Switzerland's or Norway's.
I don't think it will ever have any of the dynamic alignment that Switzerland has signed up to. Right now in the aftermath of COVID and with a pretty idealess government in charge that power is still in reserve, a future government may realise a lot of value from diverging in a few small but key areas.
Dynamic alignment with ISO standards is not impossible. Dynamic alignment with labour rules clearly would be.
No of course, but there's lots of other areas as well, especially financial regulation, where having our own ruleset not defined by the EU will be pretty handy. In all honesty, I'm very much looking forwards to the Aussie beef revolution. I've been to Australia, in a previous life I was semi-attached to a game studio based there as part of a deal with my former employer for technical assistance reasons so I was there a lot. Australian beef is great, it's better than ours and I don't care that their welfare standards a slightly diluted compared to ours. I never really understood why people loved beef so much until I had the beef there.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
'Somewhere between neutral to beneficial' implies at least some benefits. Care to list any?
Look at the growth in demand for workers in industries such as hospitality and retail. Leading to increased wages.
Come on @MrEd, you're an incredibly smart poster, but pretty much *every* country in the world saw that in the second half of 2021 as people got vaccinated and Covid concerns receded.
Of course, in the US you said it would be bad for the ruling Democrats because it meant inflation, while here it's good because it's caused by Brexit.
The reality is that it will take multiple years before we can truly sort out the Brexit from the Covid. I'm optimistic that Brexit will turn out to be a medium term economic positive, but it's entirely possible - now it's all in our hands - that we elect buffoons and fuck it up.
First of all, thanks for the compliment @rcs1000, I will take that.
Re the question, you are right but there are questions of degrees. If you want an effect in the opposite direction, look at the shortage of truck drivers: it’s a global problem but there is no doubt the U.K. has also been more impacted because of Brexit. The US side of things has also been impacted by declining labour force participation - although there’s a question of who exactly is exiting the workplace.
Re the US, I don’t think inflation is necessarily bad per se for the Democrats but I think the political hit has been exacerbated by two things. One, they are more obvious in running what is a Modern Monetary Policy and their big spending plans leave them open to accusations they have fuelled inflation. Secondly, and related, they have mismanaged the messaging. Plus I think some of the inflation in the US has been more noticeable (eg car prices - you don’t need a car for a good chunk of the U.K. but in the States, it’s only really NYC and possibly Boston and one or two others where you can reliably and safely use public transport).
[snip]I'm optimistic that Brexit will turn out to be a medium term economic positive, but it's entirely possible - now it's all in our hands - that we elect buffoons and fuck it up.
Well, we have elected buffoons, but, leaving that aside, I'm fascinated by how you can possibly see any economic positive in Brexit at all. What exactly could we do (if we didn't have buffoons running the country) that we couldn't do before, and which is sufficiently powerful to offset the blindingly obvious economic downside of erecting massive barriers to trade with the huge, prosperous market on our doorstep?
Well:
(1) You can have a country that isn't even recognized by most of the world, and still sell lots of stuff to them (see Taiwan)
and
(2) I believe it is better to have decisions taken as near to the people as possible, and in as transparent a way as possible.
It is entirely possible that (2) will not be enough to offset higher barriers to our neighbours in the EU (although I would note that most of our exports are of services rather than goods). But it is also far from a given that we will not be able to do a decent job of being small and nimble.
But those aren't economic arguments. What I want to hear is what an intelligent Brexit supporter thinks the economic benefits might be, in practice, and what was stopping us exploiting them as EU members. (Clearly not trade deals elsewhere, that was always bonkers. In fact it was so bonkers that when, in the referendum campaign, the Leave side started putting it forward as an argument I assumed for months that it was just a rather feeble attempt to counter the obvious downside of exiting the biggest and most comprehensive free trade deal on the planet. I was amazed when I finally twigged that some of them were actually serious, or at least had persuaded themselves that they were serious.)
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
But the ability, capacity and willingness to reverse it will diminish, over time, on both sides. Few divorces end in remarriage even if both sides regret it
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
One thing that encourages me is that the desire to reverse Brexit remains strong and growing. There is much Bregret and feeling that Brexit was a mistake. No major English party will run on a Rejoin platform in 2024, though the LDs have that as a long term objective.
I think it will be stronger still by the 2030's. It wouldn't surprise me if we Rejoined under a Conservatve government. After all it was under the Conservatives that we joined and under the Conservatives that we enacted the Single Market. One day the Tories will realise that they are in a cul de sac, and do a 180°.
No, it needs to happen in the 2020s, or it will be too late. I very much doubt it will happen at all, sorry. But it is possible. 10% chance is about right
That is why the more intellectual Hard Brexiteers wanted Hard Brexit. To make the break as brutal as possible, poison the well of concord, and make any path back strewn with difficulties. On top of that, make us forge an independent existence out of necessity, because the EU will be a bunch of c*nts, and we will have to turn to different markets. This is already happening. Companies and individuals adapt to a new ex-EU environment, see the benefits (or at least some compensation) - as every day goes by the chance to return dwindles away
The absolute irony is that hardcore Remoaners - such as yourself? tho I may be wrong, and I apologise if so - helped massively to achieve this. If Remainers had been clever the UK would have ended up in an ultra-soft EFTA Brexit, from which it would be easy to say Fuck it, Rejoin. Just tweak a few laws, we are back in. No biggie
With their 2nd referendum stupidities they have ensured we are very probably Out forever
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
But the ability, capacity and willingness to reverse it will diminish, over time, on both sides. Few divorces end in remarriage even if both sides regret it
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
One thing that encourages me is that the desire to reverse Brexit remains strong and growing. There is much Bregret and feeling that Brexit was a mistake. No major English party will run on a Rejoin platform in 2024, though the LDs have that as a long term objective.
I think it will be stronger still by the 2030's. It wouldn't surprise me if we Rejoined under a Conservatve government. After all it was under the Conservatives that we joined and under the Conservatives that we enacted the Single Market. One day the Tories will realise that they are in a cul de sac, and do a 180°.
It doesn't seem that implausible to me that some form of intelligence might want to see without being seen too clearly. This could apply to anyone and anything.
One of the more plausible subsets of the "it's aliens" theory is that it isn't actually alien beings we are sort-of witnessing, but autonomous alien drones, sent out to observe other life around the galaxy, or even the universe, and then send the data back home
That overcomes all the time/distance problems. This advanced civilisation could be 80,000 light years away, but they sent these probes 80,000 years ago. It also explains some of the G-forces observed, which would crush most conceivable organic life, as we understand it
The drones may contain AI of course, which adds another layer
Maybe they're here because they heard what a terrific idea Brexit was?
At the time they left mankind had not even come down from the trees to go on to the plains so it seems unlikely. If there are aliens here they have found some way to overcome the speed of light limitation. Nothing else is really possible.
No: autonomous drones, as I say. Overcomes the speed of light issue
No it doesn’t. and any report they send home would take 80k years to get there. If they are here they must have a better way. I completely accept that better way may be much more suitable for drones than living creatures though. If they went through a wormhole, for example, machines might survive things that no living creature could.
Er, what?
There are billions and billions of planets that might harbour life. On some of them there might be civilisations that have endured 500,000 years. 100 million years. If they have proper AI they might be immortal and invulnerable. Sending out a probe to report back in 200,000 years would mean nothing
You lack imagination
Use your brain. If the USA was really shitting itself over aliens, there wouldn't be a chorus line of the people you've identified squawking about it would there? They would cover it up. The over-choreographed hype is all the evidence you need.
They have been covering it up. For decades. They have now decided that that's pointless.
Yes, of course dear. They've decided blabbing about it to anyone who'll listen is a much better strategy.
Anyone who claims that they can identify any economic effect of Brexit for good or ill at the present time is delusional. We have gone through storm Arwen and have worse to come and we are arguing about a gentle offshore breeze. It’s absurd.
What does the mountain of red tape throttling our trade have to do with Arwen? And aren't you Tories the people who spent decades working to remove said red tape?
Our trade is being throttled by most of our major customers being in recession or, at best, partial recovery and by disruption of supplies from China and the Far East.
These have been massive effects and I predict that there is a lot more disruption to come. It is not paperwork, such as that required by our non EU markets both before and after we left that is causing the decline.
Our economy also grew quite strongly this year, faster than any of the larger economies in Europe. Do I claim that is a benefit of Brexit? Will I claim it when we continue to outgrow the EU average next year? Nope. There are far more important factors at play.
Err…that was because it fell further in the first place (or, more likely, both the larger downswing and larger recovery were because of the way we do the measuring)
One classic is how “output ” in Health Services are measured:
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
But the ability, capacity and willingness to reverse it will diminish, over time, on both sides. Few divorces end in remarriage even if both sides regret it
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
One thing that encourages me is that the desire to reverse Brexit remains strong and growing. There is much Bregret and feeling that Brexit was a mistake. No major English party will run on a Rejoin platform in 2024, though the LDs have that as a long term objective.
I think it will be stronger still by the 2030's. It wouldn't surprise me if we Rejoined under a Conservatve government. After all it was under the Conservatives that we joined and under the Conservatives that we enacted the Single Market. One day the Tories will realise that they are in a cul de sac, and do a 180°.
No, it needs to happen in the 2020s, or it will be too late. I very much doubt it will happen at all, sorry. But it is possible. 10% chance is about right
That is why the more intellectual Hard Brexiteers wanted Hard Brexit. To make the break as brutal as possible, poison the well of concord, and make any path back strewn with difficulties. On top of that, make us forge an independent existence out of necessity, because the EU will be a bunch of c*nts, and we will have to turn to different markets. This is already happening. Companies and individuals adapt to a new ex-EU environment, see the benefits (or at least some compensation) - as every day goes by the chance to return dwindles away
The absolute irony is that hardcore Remoaners - such as yourself? tho I may be wrong, and I apologise if so - helped massively to achieve this. If Remainers had been clever the UK would have ended up in an ultra-soft EFTA Brexit, from which it would be easy to say Fuck it, Rejoin. Just tweak a few laws, we are back in. No biggie
With their 2nd referendum stupidities they have ensured we are very probably Out forever
"We poisoned the well but it was your fault really"
Said it before. But pretty much everything China does these days, is a sign of weakness not strength. This lockdown is another. Along with dramatic "amateur" footage. No coincidence it's happened as Evergrande went tits up. Guess which one we, and they, are discussing?
If China's economy is going to blow up then people will feel the effects whether they discuss it or not.
Now, perhaps, not discussing it might allow time for certain people to get their money out
And visas for themselves and their families. I don't think China will blow up. But it is in for an almighty property correction/collapse. A pandemic, with accompanying "patriotic" draconian restrictions might be the just the thing right now.
China's banks would have been declared insolvent under any western accounting standards years over but Chinese GAAP has allowed them to keep going. The Chinese Govt will not allow the banking system to collapse under any circumstances. However, a property company is probably considered manageable.
There is a reason they have chosen now to (finally) ban bitcoin. They know that something bad is about to go down, probably a property crash, and they want to shut down crypto as a possible avenue of capital flight.
There's another - less sexy reason - why they're banning bitcoin: it's driven the price of energy up for Chinese exporters. A polysilicon purification plant that could previously make good money is paying far more for electricity than they used to, because Bitcoin miners have come in and increased demand so much.
One of the many reasons that Cryptos are so bad is the squandering of scarce energy on them. They are not a creator of wealth but rather a destroyer of it.
The failure with Brexit wasn't so much the referendum result itself IMO, it was the division that successive governments allowed to become established in the country for about 15 years before the vote. In the late 1990s there wasn't much divisiveness in the country over the EU.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
But the ability, capacity and willingness to reverse it will diminish, over time, on both sides. Few divorces end in remarriage even if both sides regret it
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
One thing that encourages me is that the desire to reverse Brexit remains strong and growing. There is much Bregret and feeling that Brexit was a mistake. No major English party will run on a Rejoin platform in 2024, though the LDs have that as a long term objective.
I think it will be stronger still by the 2030's. It wouldn't surprise me if we Rejoined under a Conservatve government. After all it was under the Conservatives that we joined and under the Conservatives that we enacted the Single Market. One day the Tories will realise that they are in a cul de sac, and do a 180°.
No, it needs to happen in the 2020s, or it will be too late. I very much doubt it will happen at all, sorry. But it is possible. 10% chance is about right
That is why the more intellectual Hard Brexiteers wanted Hard Brexit. To make the break as brutal as possible, poison the well of concord, and make any path back strewn with difficulties. On top of that, make us forge an independent existence out of necessity, because the EU will be a bunch of c*nts, and we will have to turn to different markets. This is already happening. Companies and individuals adapt to a new ex-EU environment, see the benefits (or at least some compensation) - as every day goes by the chance to return dwindles away
The absolute irony is that hardcore Remoaners - such as yourself? tho I may be wrong, and I apologise if so - helped massively to achieve this. If Remainers had been clever the UK would have ended up in an ultra-soft EFTA Brexit, from which it would be easy to say Fuck it, Rejoin. Just tweak a few laws, we are back in. No biggie
With their 2nd referendum stupidities they have ensured we are very probably Out forever
"We poisoned the well but it was your fault really"
Get yourself into the Thames.
Thanks!
I was never a Hard Brexiteer. I wanted soft EFTA Brexit. I wanted sweet, effeminate Brexit. Ballet-loving Brexit
I am merely pointing out the logic of the cleverer Hard Brexiteers, which I did not quite appreciate at the time. Nor did any of the Remainers, or they would not have enabled them so superbly
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
I’ll let you go tell them….
Some truth in the idea; most of the elites knew what they wanted, and it wasn't this. But it's worth noting that there really aren't many people who think things are going well. 15% of the general public and less than a third of Leave voters;
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
Yes, sooner or later people will resolve that contradiction. Either there have to be clear Brexit benefits, or desire to reverse it will grow.
But the ability, capacity and willingness to reverse it will diminish, over time, on both sides. Few divorces end in remarriage even if both sides regret it
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
One thing that encourages me is that the desire to reverse Brexit remains strong and growing. There is much Bregret and feeling that Brexit was a mistake. No major English party will run on a Rejoin platform in 2024, though the LDs have that as a long term objective.
I think it will be stronger still by the 2030's. It wouldn't surprise me if we Rejoined under a Conservatve government. After all it was under the Conservatives that we joined and under the Conservatives that we enacted the Single Market. One day the Tories will realise that they are in a cul de sac, and do a 180°.
No, it needs to happen in the 2020s, or it will be too late. I very much doubt it will happen at all, sorry. But it is possible. 10% chance is about right
That is why the more intellectual Hard Brexiteers wanted Hard Brexit. To make the break as brutal as possible, poison the well of concord, and make any path back strewn with difficulties. On top of that, make us forge an independent existence out of necessity, because the EU will be a bunch of c*nts, and we will have to turn to different markets. This is already happening. Companies and individuals adapt to a new ex-EU environment, see the benefits (or at least some compensation) - as every day goes by the chance to return dwindles away
The absolute irony is that hardcore Remoaners - such as yourself? tho I may be wrong, and I apologise if so - helped massively to achieve this. If Remainers had been clever the UK would have ended up in an ultra-soft EFTA Brexit, from which it would be easy to say Fuck it, Rejoin. Just tweak a few laws, we are back in. No biggie
With their 2nd referendum stupidities they have ensured we are very probably Out forever
No, it is like a drunk waking up in an alley in piss stained trousers and in a pool of vomit. Brexit has to be hard to show it was a dead end. If not, then the headbangers would always demand more. They had to be at the wheel when things went wrong.
I was never interested in a soft Brexit. We should have either Remained or gone the full monty.
Brexit has been a failure to both metropolitan posho Leavers and metropolitan posho Remainers.
The metropolitan posho Leavers wanted 'Singapore on Thames' and didn't get it.
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for working class northerners and didn't get it.
For the proles its been, depending on the individual, somewhere between neutral to beneficial.
'Somewhere between neutral to beneficial' implies at least some benefits. Care to list any?
Look at the growth in demand for workers in industries such as hospitality and retail. Leading to increased wages.
Come on @MrEd, you're an incredibly smart poster, but pretty much *every* country in the world saw that in the second half of 2021 as people got vaccinated and Covid concerns receded.
Of course, in the US you said it would be bad for the ruling Democrats because it meant inflation, while here it's good because it's caused by Brexit.
The reality is that it will take multiple years before we can truly sort out the Brexit from the Covid. I'm optimistic that Brexit will turn out to be a medium term economic positive, but it's entirely possible - now it's all in our hands - that we elect buffoons and fuck it up.
First of all, thanks for the compliment @rcs1000, I will take that.
Re the question, you are right but there are questions of degrees. If you want an effect in the opposite direction, look at the shortage of truck drivers: it’s a global problem but there is no doubt the U.K. has also been more impacted because of Brexit. The US side of things has also been impacted by declining labour force participation - although there’s a question of who exactly is exiting the workplace.
Re the US, I don’t think inflation is necessarily bad per se for the Democrats but I think the political hit has been exacerbated by two things. One, they are more obvious in running what is a Modern Monetary Policy and their big spending plans leave them open to accusations they have fuelled inflation. Secondly, and related, they have mismanaged the messaging. Plus I think some of the inflation in the US has been more noticeable (eg car prices - you don’t need a car for a good chunk of the U.K. but in the States, it’s only really NYC and possibly Boston and one or two others where you can reliably and safely use public transport).
My suspicion is that wage changes in the last two years are 99% Covid related and 1% Brexit. I suspect that if you looked at hospitality wage increases in the second half of 2021, you wouldn't see big differences between the UK, Spain and the US. Simply: demand returning would be the dominant factor, not the availability of cheap labour.
Now, that may change going forward. But that hasn't happened yet. Right now, changes in incomes are almost entirely the consequence of demand for restaraunts and other tourism-type services ebbing and flowing with Covid concern or optimism.
Quick question re China - what do PBers think about its prospects?
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
Don't think so - they are locked into international trade, and doing well out of it. It's a huge country and we tend toi overinterpret news from individual bits of it, egged on by hostile Twitter accounts. It's like trying to predict the state of the USA after reading of disturbing events in Wyoming.
People tend to expect drama too much of the time. How's the invasion of Taiwan coming along?
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59867536
He is pretty nailed on for the final 2, and of the others only Pecresse is a real threat.
Starmer's slogan so boring he forgot it
Reality being outside the modelled confidence interval once obviously says nothing about the quality of the modelling in general. The wider question is this: is there evidence that the modelling was systemically biased towards prudence throughout the pandemic? If so, given the reliance on model results to guide policy, are the models fit for purpose, and if not, what changes need to be made to ensure the mean results coincide with realistic best estimates?
The dog, called North, kept Grga Brkic warm after he fell while out hiking and was unable to move. The other two hikers with him were unable to reach them, so they raised the alarm.
First responders credited the eight-month-old Alaskan Malamute with having helped keep Brkic safe.
I'm not sure about how far apart Pecresse and Macron would be in reality, obviously Pecresse is wooing Le Pen votes to get into the runoff.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-agrees-2022-fishing-catch-limits-with-eu-and-norway
Also it didn't. Evergrande first blew up several months ago and continued with missed payments etc every month. The suspension of shares only after they had already had 2 weeks of lockdown / dramatic footage from Xian had been widely circulated.
We only started talking about it here because it became clear this harsh lockdown, got harder and has been going on a lot longer than their previous clamp downs on covid outbreaks.
I don't think China will blow up. But it is in for an almighty property correction/collapse.
A pandemic, with accompanying "patriotic" draconian restrictions might be the just the thing right now.
The exacerbating factor is that media and twitter uses like Melville jump on the worst case scenario. The lower end simply doesn't create clickbait.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1478387855462383617?s=20
(I'm genuinely scientifically interested to see how it affects a country to have a key policy which people generally think is going badly but also don't particularly want to reverse. But scientifically interested in the manner a boffin sending mice round a maze filled with tiny mice-killing ninjas.)
But the Brexit campaign shared a lot of properties of Orwell's High/Middle/Low theory in one of the sociology lectures in 1984. Johnson/Gove/Cummings et al were the Middle, the 2nd division elite. They co-opted the Low to get Brexit, allowing them to depose the High (Cameron and co in London, plus the Brussels crew), but mainly so they could become the new High.
(Happened to someone in the 70s when applying for a driving licence, allegedly.)
The metropolitan posho Remainers wanted mass unemployment for the metropolitan posho Leavers, not for the working class northerners.
Barring a new more dangerous Covid strain this is his biggest challenge and political threat.
We have urged him to axe VAT on energy, as he once promised.
But even that will make only a minor difference and he seems against it anyway.
The PM did at least show he was alive to the problem, telling The Sun he has not ruled out new solutions to ease hardship. We will hold him to that.
The Treasury, typically, will resist. But Boris must champion the public over the beancounters.
If not, voters will be merciless.
https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/1477935717401698306?s=20
It's about the name matching the invoices if HMRC choose to audit AFAIAA.
iirc there was no one they hated more than Blair than Hoon after the Iraq War.
If you wait for full information it is too late to act, and you become controlled by events rather than being in control of them.
If I waited for full information before acting, I would be proven right by many autopsies...
Nah, Project Fear.
They also replaced a pro austerity Tory government with a populist high spending Tory government too
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/01/04/joe-biden-helped-legitimise-elizabeth-holmes-effusive-praise/
Does the Sun know this?
The people had votes in 2017 and 2019 to choose the nature of the government, if was not the referendum that chose a Theresa May minority and a Boris Johnson majority.
Knew a posh highly priced counsellor who worked as a sole trader. Very well qualified and respected. His real name? Geoffrey Raper...
Needless to say he didn't use that to attract any business.
Of course, in the US you said it would be bad for the ruling Democrats because it meant inflation, while here it's good because it's caused by Brexit.
The reality is that it will take multiple years before we can truly sort out the Brexit from the Covid. I'm optimistic that Brexit will turn out to be a medium term economic positive, but it's entirely possible - now it's all in our hands - that we elect buffoons and fuck it up.
I've been thinking about this concept: Rejoin
I reckon there could a small window of opportunity in the next few years, if Brexit shows absolutely no benefits, if the Tories fall apart, if the economy goes absolutely tits up - then Labour could suddenly say Right we want to rejoin, starting with EFTA, and people might just go for it
But as the years pass Rejoining will become more and more implausible, as the EU integrates in a way we could never tolerate (and of course there is not the untrivial chance that really bad shit will happen inside or to the EU, making it less attractive)
Second half of the 2020s is the time Rejoin might happen. 10% chance? 20%? After that it will be way too late and several decades will pass before we even think about it and I doubt we will because by then we will be run by the aliens/GPT89
This is why Brexit will be a failure in the end. It cannot possibly succeed on its own terms because they are contradictory. Doubtless it will succeed on something that was promised; it could scarcely fail to.
A more convincing argument is that they will be very wary about taking us back.
It will be interesting when the details are announced
I suspect EFTA will be the end position - mitigates most of the issues without crossing the 'we are in the EU' rubicon.
Er...
Xi'an - and now the other cities - are a disaster for their image as the Zero Covid Success. People screaming from welded apartment blocks - again? Weird armies of men shooting flames at bus-stops? Overnight hospitals and concentration camps of quarantiners?
This is not good PR
Meanwhile Omicron/Covid-19-Ebola/Whatever it is, has reached their biggest port
"Update : In China, there is an outbreak in Xi'an, now also in Yuzhou (Henan province) and Ningbo (port city). In Ningbo it is the completely unknown Vietnam variant (there are 2 I think). In Xi'an and Yuzhou it is an 'unknown' Delta variant."
"@alecolarizi
@AleColarizi
·
14h
Port city Ningbo in East China's Zhejiang Province, has shut down parts of the city due to recent epidemic surge that caused 23 infections in two days. It is the second Chinese city to implement lockdown measures in this winter outbreak following Xi'an"
https://twitter.com/AleColarizi/status/1478280927260385280?s=20
That's gonna fuck the global economy, if it continues
I think it will be stronger still by the 2030's. It wouldn't surprise me if we Rejoined under a Conservatve government. After all it was under the Conservatives that we joined and under the Conservatives that we enacted the Single Market. One day the Tories will realise that they are in a cul de sac, and do a 180°.
(1) You can have a country that isn't even recognized by most of the world, and still sell lots of stuff to them (see Taiwan)
and
(2) I believe it is better to have decisions taken as near to the people as possible, and in as transparent a way as possible.
It is entirely possible that (2) will not be enough to offset higher barriers to our neighbours in the EU (although I would note that most of our exports are of services rather than goods). But it is also far from a given that we will not be able to do a decent job of being small and nimble.
And none of us can get a bloody RTX 3080, either...
Independent, adaptive countries do better than states in massive blocs is a pretty good rule of thumb, tho there are exceptions, as always
But as Robert implies, we need to get the hang of being independent, and being able to act fast and cleverly because of that independence. We may entirely fail
The vaccine success is the only real example of our doing this, so far (tho it is quite a significant one). The bullshit that "we could have done this in the EU" IS bullshit. The emotional/political pressure to be in the EU vax scheme would have totally overwhelmed any Remainy government (which is what we would have had, post a Remain vote)
Come on Brexity Britain, shape up
So, the prospect of Rejoin winning an election followed by Leave five years later would be reason enough to stop our hokey cokey.
Spain: Salaries paid - COVID : huge leap in output.
UK: “Operations performed”: - COVID - output collapsed.
I doubt that’s how it felt on the ground in either.
Re the question, you are right but there are questions of degrees. If you want an effect in the opposite direction, look at the shortage of truck drivers: it’s a global problem but there is no doubt the U.K. has also been more impacted because of Brexit. The US side of things has also been impacted by declining labour force participation - although there’s a question of who exactly is exiting the workplace.
Re the US, I don’t think inflation is necessarily bad per se for the Democrats but I think the political hit has been exacerbated by two things. One, they are more obvious in running what is a Modern Monetary Policy and their big spending plans leave them open to accusations they have fuelled inflation. Secondly, and related, they have mismanaged the messaging. Plus I think some of the inflation in the US has been more noticeable (eg car prices - you don’t need a car for a good chunk of the U.K. but in the States, it’s only really NYC and possibly Boston and one or two others where you can reliably and safely use public transport).
My own view is that it is turning in on itself in a way like it did in the 15th Century and we are about to see the fall of the post-2000 global economy system where China played such a role.
That is why the more intellectual Hard Brexiteers wanted Hard Brexit. To make the break as brutal as possible, poison the well of concord, and make any path back strewn with difficulties. On top of that, make us forge an independent existence out of necessity, because the EU will be a bunch of c*nts, and we will have to turn to different markets. This is already happening. Companies and individuals adapt to a new ex-EU environment, see the benefits (or at least some compensation) - as every day goes by the chance to return dwindles away
The absolute irony is that hardcore Remoaners - such as yourself? tho I may be wrong, and I apologise if so - helped massively to achieve this. If Remainers had been clever the UK would have ended up in an ultra-soft EFTA Brexit, from which it would be easy to say Fuck it, Rejoin. Just tweak a few laws, we are back in. No biggie
With their 2nd referendum stupidities they have ensured we are very probably Out forever
I pointed out at the time that this wasn't really a sound basis of economic success. We can all make our living giving each other booster shots.
Get yourself into the Thames.
I was never a Hard Brexiteer. I wanted soft EFTA Brexit. I wanted sweet, effeminate Brexit. Ballet-loving Brexit
I am merely pointing out the logic of the cleverer Hard Brexiteers, which I did not quite appreciate at the time. Nor did any of the Remainers, or they would not have enabled them so superbly
I was never interested in a soft Brexit. We should have either Remained or gone the full monty.
Now, that may change going forward. But that hasn't happened yet. Right now, changes in incomes are almost entirely the consequence of demand for restaraunts and other tourism-type services ebbing and flowing with Covid concern or optimism.
People tend to expect drama too much of the time. How's the invasion of Taiwan coming along?