We do not shut down society again post vaccination for people most of whom would soon be dead anyway on average even without Covid. Nor for those who have been offered but refused vaccinations and boosters
Not convinced this line of argument is helpful to you.
I don’t envy the decision Johnson or the cabinet has to make and this time I did not call it earlier but of course I wish I had in the sense we could have saved lives. But I do think this time this has been a very tough decision to make.
So what but of evidence has tipped you to call for lockdown? And what kind of lockdown? Please don’t just say that thread from Cristina Pagel, as she is probably even more divisive than you can be. NHS leaders are specifically coming forward and saying that we don’t need further curbs, based on what they are seeing in their hospitals. If you don’t want to listen to my opinion that’s fine - I’m a nobody on a chat room, but why ignore those who are on the front line? And some unsolicited advice. You seem to want to make up rules for engagement on pb. That’s not how it works. Ignore posters if you don’t like them, or what they say. If you disagree say so. You constantly seek to call things out. No ones gives a shit on here. You say you haven’t called for a lockdown for ages? I can’t be bothered to wade through your posts, but I don’t believe that’s true by any reasonable definition of ages. If not that, you’ve endlessly spammed ‘we’re in trouble’ in recent days, over and over. You may not be trying to, but you do wind people up. I don’t think it’s fair to use your mental health issues as cover for how you interact with others. What do you know of their mental state? Not everyone is or wishes to be as open as you. As we go into 2022, let’s all try to be a bit more civil.
While hospitalisations are useful, I think "in hospital *for* Covid" is the key metric. Because if people are being hospitalised for 4 days rather than 8 on average, then you can have twice the number of admissions.
Not nessicarily trivial. The 30 day mortality for a hip fracture with covid is 38%. About 4 times controls.
Hip fracture is more common in the elderly of course. Particularly elderly ladies. As the article makes clear.
I have a funny but sad story about hip fractures. My nan did hers when she walked between 2 cars and did not notice the tow rope. She lived another decade or two, but was never the same.
Are we prepared to consider learning from other European countries that don't use the NHS model?
Are we prepared to spend a lot more money on healthcare?
Also the German figure is bunkum for the purposes of comparison, that bed figure is not staffed like an NHS ICU bed.
Exactly right. A “bed” in health service terms is really about the staff and infrastructure around the patient.
That said, health and social care are not sufficiently funded and this ends up creating the sort of long term problems that come from false economies. We need to spend a higher proportion of GDP on public services, and we need to get that from tax. But first and foremost we need GDP growth to fund the tax which funds services. Which means we also need to spend and invest way more in education and skills. And we need to get back into the European single market pronto. Enough with the silly sovereignty experiment. It doesn’t pay the bills.
. . . I'm really struggling to see your logic as to why we need to rejoin the Single Market? Its almost as if that was simply already your opinion pre-Brexit and nothing has changed your mind and there's no actual data or evidence to say that the experiment is silly. Like you're as open minded to Brexit as Pagel is to Covid?
There’s an element of sophistry in your response, of course. We had the largest fall in GDP of the G7 in 2020 (over 9%!) by quite some margin, then the largest bounce back (by a bit) this year, leaving us around 1% worse than France has done over the 2 years.
The sophistry of course is in the fact we were in the single market as a result of the transition period last year. But the rot started in 2016 as can be seen not only in GDP numbers but also in business investment which has been completely flat since 2016.
It’s not and need not be a political or partisan point. Of course exiting the single market (and to a lesser extent customs union) reduces potential growth because it introduces trade friction and costs / bureaucracy that aren’t there before. They’ll increase yet more on Saturday when we bring in the GVMS on all imports. But that was a trade off in exchange for sovereignty and reduced immigration. I just don’t think it was worth it.
I don’t think you can point at business investment from 2016-20 to argue Brexit is a “failure”
The one thing business hates more than anything else is uncertainty… and there has been plenty of that in the last few years.
Let’s check in again in about 20 years and then we’ll have the data to form a tentative view
"The one thing business hates more than anything else is uncertainty" - my response to that is always You poor love, if you hate uncertainty you need to move to a more restful economy where commodity and currency prices and interest rates and the weather and human nature are all set in advance every 5 years
The sort of business which hates uncertainty is the sort of established behemoth which sits on the CBI and gets to be a talking head on the telly. Small and young businesses thrive on it.
@RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.
I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.
lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
Sure, if six hours ago isn't a long time, then no you haven't.
Or is this still part of the same "call"?
Other than earlier today, when did I last call for one.
Not in a very long time. Please disengage now and do not smear me.
Yesterday and on occasions previously
Indeed I specifically asked you yesterday when you called for a lockdown to explain the restrictions you would impose
What occasions previously.
Yesterday I said it roughly twice.
Cite those other occasions now. Or you will be ignored going forward.
Get a grip you get more belligerent every day , there will soon be no-one left to fall out with. Take a chill pill and stop imagining everyone is against you.
Ummm....
“O, wad some Power the giftie gie us To see oursels as others see us! It wad frae monie a blunder free us, An' foolish notion.”
Ye ugly, creepan, blastet wonner, Detested, shunn’d, by saunt an’ sinner, How daur ye set your fit upon her, Sae fine a Lady! Gae somewhere else and seek your dinner, On some poor body.
Are we prepared to consider learning from other European countries that don't use the NHS model?
Are we prepared to spend a lot more money on healthcare?
Also the German figure is bunkum for the purposes of comparison, that bed figure is not staffed like an NHS ICU bed.
Exactly right. A “bed” in health service terms is really about the staff and infrastructure around the patient.
That said, health and social care are not sufficiently funded and this ends up creating the sort of long term problems that come from false economies. We need to spend a higher proportion of GDP on public services, and we need to get that from tax. But first and foremost we need GDP growth to fund the tax which funds services. Which means we also need to spend and invest way more in education and skills. And we need to get back into the European single market pronto. Enough with the silly sovereignty experiment. It doesn’t pay the bills.
. . . I'm really struggling to see your logic as to why we need to rejoin the Single Market? Its almost as if that was simply already your opinion pre-Brexit and nothing has changed your mind and there's no actual data or evidence to say that the experiment is silly. Like you're as open minded to Brexit as Pagel is to Covid?
There’s an element of sophistry in your response, of course. We had the largest fall in GDP of the G7 in 2020 (over 9%!) by quite some margin, then the largest bounce back (by a bit) this year, leaving us around 1% worse than France has done over the 2 years.
The sophistry of course is in the fact we were in the single market as a result of the transition period last year. But the rot started in 2016 as can be seen not only in GDP numbers but also in business investment which has been completely flat since 2016.
It’s not and need not be a political or partisan point. Of course exiting the single market (and to a lesser extent customs union) reduces potential growth because it introduces trade friction and costs / bureaucracy that aren’t there before. They’ll increase yet more on Saturday when we bring in the GVMS on all imports. But that was a trade off in exchange for sovereignty and reduced immigration. I just don’t think it was worth it.
I don’t think you can point at business investment from 2016-20 to argue Brexit is a “failure”
The one thing business hates more than anything else is uncertainty… and there has been plenty of that in the last few years.
Let’s check in again in about 20 years and then we’ll have the data to form a tentative view
Unfortunately we are likely to all be paupers by then , apart from the silver spoon brigade who have their tax havens etc to keep them in the way they are accustomed. You could bet your shirt that the average person will be worse off in 20 years and working harder whilst the rich will be awash with ill gotten goods and cash. Perhaps the peasants will catch on at some point and get out the pitchforks.
I don’t have stats to hand but I recall that real wages have stagnated/declined for a generation*. They have in no way benefited from globalisation and have disproportionately borne the costs
I think Brexit was the pitchfork moment you refer to. The question is whether there is a “Reign of Terror” to come
Are we prepared to consider learning from other European countries that don't use the NHS model?
Are we prepared to spend a lot more money on healthcare?
Also the German figure is bunkum for the purposes of comparison, that bed figure is not staffed like an NHS ICU bed.
Exactly right. A “bed” in health service terms is really about the staff and infrastructure around the patient.
That said, health and social care are not sufficiently funded and this ends up creating the sort of long term problems that come from false economies. We need to spend a higher proportion of GDP on public services, and we need to get that from tax. But first and foremost we need GDP growth to fund the tax which funds services. Which means we also need to spend and invest way more in education and skills. And we need to get back into the European single market pronto. Enough with the silly sovereignty experiment. It doesn’t pay the bills.
. . . I'm really struggling to see your logic as to why we need to rejoin the Single Market? Its almost as if that was simply already your opinion pre-Brexit and nothing has changed your mind and there's no actual data or evidence to say that the experiment is silly. Like you're as open minded to Brexit as Pagel is to Covid?
There’s an element of sophistry in your response, of course. We had the largest fall in GDP of the G7 in 2020 (over 9%!) by quite some margin, then the largest bounce back (by a bit) this year, leaving us around 1% worse than France has done over the 2 years.
The sophistry of course is in the fact we were in the single market as a result of the transition period last year. But the rot started in 2016 as can be seen not only in GDP numbers but also in business investment which has been completely flat since 2016.
It’s not and need not be a political or partisan point. Of course exiting the single market (and to a lesser extent customs union) reduces potential growth because it introduces trade friction and costs / bureaucracy that aren’t there before. They’ll increase yet more on Saturday when we bring in the GVMS on all imports. But that was a trade off in exchange for sovereignty and reduced immigration. I just don’t think it was worth it.
I don’t think you can point at business investment from 2016-20 to argue Brexit is a “failure”
The one thing business hates more than anything else is uncertainty… and there has been plenty of that in the last few years.
Let’s check in again in about 20 years and then we’ll have the data to form a tentative view
"The one thing business hates more than anything else is uncertainty" - my response to that is always You poor love, if you hate uncertainty you need to move to a more restful economy where commodity and currency prices and interest rates and the weather and human nature are all set in advance every 5 years
The sort of business which hates uncertainty is the sort of established behemoth which sits on the CBI and gets to be a talking head on the telly. Small and young businesses thrive on it.
Uncertainty creates opportunities - both for good and ill.
The risk averse are generally a lot bigger and louder than those that are just getting on with seeking the opportunities before them.
@RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.
I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.
lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
Sure, if six hours ago isn't a long time, then no you haven't.
Or is this still part of the same "call"?
Other than earlier today, when did I last call for one.
Not in a very long time. Please disengage now and do not smear me.
Yesterday and on occasions previously
Indeed I specifically asked you yesterday when you called for a lockdown to explain the restrictions you would impose
What occasions previously.
Yesterday I said it roughly twice.
Cite those other occasions now. Or you will be ignored going forward.
Get a grip you get more belligerent every day , there will soon be no-one left to fall out with. Take a chill pill and stop imagining everyone is against you.
Much of the site has become so boring of late - a whole load of personal spats about sfa. Focus on issues would e so refreshing. Don't like someone - ignore! Hopefully absolutely no-one will rrespond to this post! HNY!
Happy New Year to you Felix, certainly the quality of banter has really dropped, all doom and gloom and panic.
@RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.
I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.
lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
Sure, if six hours ago isn't a long time, then no you haven't.
Or is this still part of the same "call"?
Other than earlier today, when did I last call for one.
Not in a very long time. Please disengage now and do not smear me.
Yesterday and on occasions previously
Indeed I specifically asked you yesterday when you called for a lockdown to explain the restrictions you would impose
What occasions previously.
Yesterday I said it roughly twice.
Cite those other occasions now. Or you will be ignored going forward.
Get a grip you get more belligerent every day , there will soon be no-one left to fall out with. Take a chill pill and stop imagining everyone is against you.
Ummm....
It reminds me of this quote from Charlie Wilson's War.
You know you've reached rock bottom when you're told you have character flaws by a man who hanged his predecessor in a military coup.
We do not shut down society again post vaccination for people most of whom would soon be dead anyway on average even without Covid. Nor for those who have been offered but refused vaccinations and boosters
It depends what you mean by soon. According to this, the average life expectancy of an 85-year-old man in the uk is about 6 years. For an 85-year-old woman, it's about 7 years.
My elderly relatives are all fit and hearty, despite being in their late 70s, 80s and, in two cases, 90s (*). They are not the gibbering wrecks that some on here try to make out the elderly to be.
They are enjoying life and retirement. My little 'un is seven; I'd like him to get to know his grandparents for as long as possible, as he has much he can learn from them - as I did from my grandparents.
(*) A great-aunt who is only ten years older than my dad.
@RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.
I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.
lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
Sure, if six hours ago isn't a long time, then no you haven't.
Or is this still part of the same "call"?
Other than earlier today, when did I last call for one.
Not in a very long time. Please disengage now and do not smear me.
Yesterday and on occasions previously
Indeed I specifically asked you yesterday when you called for a lockdown to explain the restrictions you would impose
What occasions previously.
Yesterday I said it roughly twice.
Cite those other occasions now. Or you will be ignored going forward.
Get a grip you get more belligerent every day , there will soon be no-one left to fall out with. Take a chill pill and stop imagining everyone is against you.
Ummm....
“O, wad some Power the giftie gie us To see oursels as others see us! It wad frae monie a blunder free us, An' foolish notion.”
Ye ugly, creepan, blastet wonner, Detested, shunn’d, by saunt an’ sinner, How daur ye set your fit upon her, Sae fine a Lady! Gae somewhere else and seek your dinner, On some poor body.
That's what we all love about you Malc, your ceaselessly inventive way of insulting people. But I've got to admit, that's genuinely original and brilliant.
@RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.
I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.
lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
Sure, if six hours ago isn't a long time, then no you haven't.
Or is this still part of the same "call"?
Other than earlier today, when did I last call for one.
Not in a very long time. Please disengage now and do not smear me.
Yesterday and on occasions previously
Indeed I specifically asked you yesterday when you called for a lockdown to explain the restrictions you would impose
What occasions previously.
Yesterday I said it roughly twice.
Cite those other occasions now. Or you will be ignored going forward.
Get a grip you get more belligerent every day , there will soon be no-one left to fall out with. Take a chill pill and stop imagining everyone is against you.
Ummm....
To be fair @malcolmg he ha# an unwavering level of belligerence. Some things in life are a constant, and all the better for it...
Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.
Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.
“If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”
I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
Because it is Conservative Party policy not to have an English parliament, apart of course from the one there already is at Westminster.
It is Conservative party policy to have English votes for English laws though.
If and when we go back into opposition within a few years I expect party policy would shift towards an English parliament as the first and quickest route back to power before building a UK majority again
No, it isn't any more - EVEL has been scrapped. We've discussed this several times.
Thread: COVID sitrep for New Year’s Eve: The wave of omicron variant COVID-19 infections continues to spread around the world. Hospital admissions are rising across the UK but there are important differences to earlier waves…. 1/12
@RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.
I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.
lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
Sure, if six hours ago isn't a long time, then no you haven't.
Or is this still part of the same "call"?
Other than earlier today, when did I last call for one.
Not in a very long time. Please disengage now and do not smear me.
Yesterday and on occasions previously
Indeed I specifically asked you yesterday when you called for a lockdown to explain the restrictions you would impose
What occasions previously.
Yesterday I said it roughly twice.
Cite those other occasions now. Or you will be ignored going forward.
Get a grip you get more belligerent every day , there will soon be no-one left to fall out with. Take a chill pill and stop imagining everyone is against you.
Ummm....
“O, wad some Power the giftie gie us To see oursels as others see us! It wad frae monie a blunder free us, An' foolish notion.”
Ye ugly, creepan, blastet wonner, Detested, shunn’d, by saunt an’ sinner, How daur ye set your fit upon her, Sae fine a Lady! Gae somewhere else and seek your dinner, On some poor body.
Great to see that all 4 nations of the UK have hit the target of offering a booster shot to all adults by today. Its a remarkable achievement.
A shame more haven't bothered to come forward for their shot, although some will be ineligible due to having had Covid within 28 days but still.
Now that everyone's had the opportunity to get boosted, if anyone's declined to do so then there's absolutely no reason to have lockdowns to protect them from their own decisions in January.
Karol Sikora: "During any bad flu season, some tens of thousands of excess deaths could be recorded. Catching a nasty bout of influenza is debilitating and even fatal, yet as a society we have accepted a level of risk to keep the country functioning as normal. Thousands of lives could be saved every winter from similar viruses if we fully locked down, but we don’t."
Karol Sikora: "During any bad flu season, some tens of thousands of excess deaths could be recorded. Catching a nasty bout of influenza is debilitating and even fatal, yet as a society we have accepted a level of risk to keep the country functioning as normal. Thousands of lives could be saved every winter from similar viruses if we fully locked down, but we don’t."
telegrap
I've lost track. Is Dr Sikora (Professor?) a PB Approved Expert or the other way round?
Thread: COVID sitrep for New Year’s Eve: The wave of omicron variant COVID-19 infections continues to spread around the world. Hospital admissions are rising across the UK but there are important differences to earlier waves…. 1/12
As with a lot of these posts I would question point 8 not because it's wrong but because I think you are still a bit too early to be 100% sure about this point. In a weeks time this point may be valid but it's still too early to be sure about this.
What is interesting and increasingly promising is the fact that intensive care admissions are not rising in the way they did with previous waves. Omicron may spread more easily, but fewer covid patients are developing life-threatening illness than we were expecting. 8/12
Great to see that all 4 nations of the UK have hit the target of offering a booster shot to all adults by today. Its a remarkable achievement.
A shame more haven't bothered to come forward for their shot, although some will be ineligible due to having had Covid within 28 days but still.
Now that everyone's had the opportunity to get boosted, if anyone's declined to do so then there's absolutely no reason to have lockdowns to protect them from their own decisions in January.
I'm probably still in the 'not boosted' figure despite having been jabbed, because of a paperwork SNAFU the NHS seem unable to sort out.
Great to see that all 4 nations of the UK have hit the target of offering a booster shot to all adults by today. Its a remarkable achievement.
A shame more haven't bothered to come forward for their shot, although some will be ineligible due to having had Covid within 28 days but still.
Now that everyone's had the opportunity to get boosted, if anyone's declined to do so then there's absolutely no reason to have lockdowns to protect them from their own decisions in January.
Also clear now that they meant ‘offered’ not actually jabbed by end of the year...
Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.
Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.
“If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”
I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
Because it is Conservative Party policy not to have an English parliament, apart of course from the one there already is at Westminster.
It is Conservative party policy to have English votes for English laws though.
If and when we go back into opposition within a few years I expect party policy would shift towards an English parliament as the first and quickest route back to power before building a UK majority again
No, it isn't any more - EVEL has been scrapped. We've discussed this several times.
Though many Tory MPs opposed that decision like Redwood and rightly so. If we got a Starmer government without a majority in England no EVEL would be a big issue.
If and when we go into opposition we will get our party back on that and Tory members and by then likely Tory MPs too will push and force through support for an English parliament as the next stage
@RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.
I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.
lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
Sure, if six hours ago isn't a long time, then no you haven't.
Or is this still part of the same "call"?
Other than earlier today, when did I last call for one.
Not in a very long time. Please disengage now and do not smear me.
Yesterday and on occasions previously
Indeed I specifically asked you yesterday when you called for a lockdown to explain the restrictions you would impose
What occasions previously.
Yesterday I said it roughly twice.
Cite those other occasions now. Or you will be ignored going forward.
Get a grip you get more belligerent every day , there will soon be no-one left to fall out with. Take a chill pill and stop imagining everyone is against you.
Much of the site has become so boring of late - a whole load of personal spats about sfa. Focus on issues would e so refreshing. Don't like someone - ignore! Hopefully absolutely no-one will rrespond to this post! HNY!
Happy New Year to you Felix, certainly the quality of banter has really dropped, all doom and gloom and panic.
@RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.
I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.
lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
Sure, if six hours ago isn't a long time, then no you haven't.
Or is this still part of the same "call"?
Other than earlier today, when did I last call for one.
Not in a very long time. Please disengage now and do not smear me.
Yesterday and on occasions previously
Indeed I specifically asked you yesterday when you called for a lockdown to explain the restrictions you would impose
What occasions previously.
Yesterday I said it roughly twice.
Cite those other occasions now. Or you will be ignored going forward.
Get a grip you get more belligerent every day , there will soon be no-one left to fall out with. Take a chill pill and stop imagining everyone is against you.
Ummm....
“O, wad some Power the giftie gie us To see oursels as others see us! It wad frae monie a blunder free us, An' foolish notion.”
Ye ugly, creepan, blastet wonner, Detested, shunn’d, by saunt an’ sinner, How daur ye set your fit upon her, Sae fine a Lady! Gae somewhere else and seek your dinner, On some poor body.
That's what we all love about you Malc, your ceaselessly inventive way of insulting people. But I've got to admit, that's genuinely original and brilliant.
Not so sure about the original but an excellent use of Rabbie.
@RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.
I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.
lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
Sure, if six hours ago isn't a long time, then no you haven't.
Or is this still part of the same "call"?
Other than earlier today, when did I last call for one.
Not in a very long time. Please disengage now and do not smear me.
Yesterday and on occasions previously
Indeed I specifically asked you yesterday when you called for a lockdown to explain the restrictions you would impose
What occasions previously.
Yesterday I said it roughly twice.
Cite those other occasions now. Or you will be ignored going forward.
Get a grip you get more belligerent every day , there will soon be no-one left to fall out with. Take a chill pill and stop imagining everyone is against you.
Much of the site has become so boring of late - a whole load of personal spats about sfa. Focus on issues would e so refreshing. Don't like someone - ignore! Hopefully absolutely no-one will rrespond to this post! HNY!
Happy New Year to you Felix, certainly the quality of banter has really dropped, all doom and gloom and panic.
I'm actually optimistic, and have been through much of the pandemic. Yes, the situation's been sh*t, but life's what you make it. There were things I could not do, so I did the things I could.
Talking of which, today's my last run of the year. If a meteorite does not hit me in the next couple of hours, and I don't crash my car on the way to the start, then I will have done one run every day this year. I know running doesn't float everyone's boat, but I tried to find things that kept my mood up. Therefore I'll have achieved something I'm proud of (even if it's a little nutty) despite the pandemic.
It's given me something to concentrate and obsess on, and it's certainly been difficult, including many early mornings, especially during home schooling. But the difficulty adds to the sense of achievement.
I've also encouraged the little 'un to do the same with a certain activity, and I think it's helped him.
I certainly don't subscribe to the 'lockdown equals no life' viewpoint.
We do not shut down society again post vaccination for people most of whom would soon be dead anyway on average even without Covid. Nor for those who have been offered but refused vaccinations and boosters
Not convinced this line of argument is helpful to you.
It is for me as a Conservative. Just 4% of Conservative members want any further restrictions on the vaccinated. If you align with that 4% you are now closer to Starmer, Drakeford and Sturgeon than the Tory base
Great to see that all 4 nations of the UK have hit the target of offering a booster shot to all adults by today. Its a remarkable achievement.
A shame more haven't bothered to come forward for their shot, although some will be ineligible due to having had Covid within 28 days but still.
Now that everyone's had the opportunity to get boosted, if anyone's declined to do so then there's absolutely no reason to have lockdowns to protect them from their own decisions in January.
Also clear now that they meant ‘offered’ not actually jabbed by end of the year...
It could only ever mean offered.
That was a really stupid argument some tried to make, unless you're expecting the Police to round up and arrest anyone who doesn't go to get jabbed so the jab can be forced upon them, then how can you jab everyone?
Are we prepared to consider learning from other European countries that don't use the NHS model?
Are we prepared to spend a lot more money on healthcare?
Also the German figure is bunkum for the purposes of comparison, that bed figure is not staffed like an NHS ICU bed.
Exactly right. A “bed” in health service terms is really about the staff and infrastructure around the patient.
That said, health and social care are not sufficiently funded and this ends up creating the sort of long term problems that come from false economies. We need to spend a higher proportion of GDP on public services, and we need to get that from tax. But first and foremost we need GDP growth to fund the tax which funds services. Which means we also need to spend and invest way more in education and skills. And we need to get back into the European single market pronto. Enough with the silly sovereignty experiment. It doesn’t pay the bills.
. . . I'm really struggling to see your logic as to why we need to rejoin the Single Market? Its almost as if that was simply already your opinion pre-Brexit and nothing has changed your mind and there's no actual data or evidence to say that the experiment is silly. Like you're as open minded to Brexit as Pagel is to Covid?
There’s an element of sophistry in your response, of course. We had the largest fall in GDP of the G7 in 2020 (over 9%!) by quite some margin, then the largest bounce back (by a bit) this year, leaving us around 1% worse than France has done over the 2 years.
The sophistry of course is in the fact we were in the single market as a result of the transition period last year. But the rot started in 2016 as can be seen not only in GDP numbers but also in business investment which has been completely flat since 2016.
It’s not and need not be a political or partisan point. Of course exiting the single market (and to a lesser extent customs union) reduces potential growth because it introduces trade friction and costs / bureaucracy that aren’t there before. They’ll increase yet more on Saturday when we bring in the GVMS on all imports. But that was a trade off in exchange for sovereignty and reduced immigration. I just don’t think it was worth it.
I don’t think you can point at business investment from 2016-20 to argue Brexit is a “failure”
The one thing business hates more than anything else is uncertainty… and there has been plenty of that in the last few years.
Let’s check in again in about 20 years and then we’ll have the data to form a tentative view
"The one thing business hates more than anything else is uncertainty" - my response to that is always You poor love, if you hate uncertainty you need to move to a more restful economy where commodity and currency prices and interest rates and the weather and human nature are all set in advance every 5 years
The sort of business which hates uncertainty is the sort of established behemoth which sits on the CBI and gets to be a talking head on the telly. Small and young businesses thrive on it.
I should have said “uncertainty that is outside their control”
Risk is one thing - that can be planned for and how a business makes money
But whether there is a Brexit deal or No Deal has a huge impact on returns and there is SFA they can do about it. So they sit on their hands for many major investments
… plus when you are talking about aggregate statistics like we were big business is very important…
@RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.
I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.
lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
Sure, if six hours ago isn't a long time, then no you haven't.
Or is this still part of the same "call"?
Other than earlier today, when did I last call for one.
Not in a very long time. Please disengage now and do not smear me.
Yesterday and on occasions previously
Indeed I specifically asked you yesterday when you called for a lockdown to explain the restrictions you would impose
What occasions previously.
Yesterday I said it roughly twice.
Cite those other occasions now. Or you will be ignored going forward.
Get a grip you get more belligerent every day , there will soon be no-one left to fall out with. Take a chill pill and stop imagining everyone is against you.
Ummm....
“O, wad some Power the giftie gie us To see oursels as others see us! It wad frae monie a blunder free us, An' foolish notion.”
Ye ugly, creepan, blastet wonner, Detested, shunn’d, by saunt an’ sinner, How daur ye set your fit upon her, Sae fine a Lady! Gae somewhere else and seek your dinner, On some poor body.
That's what we all love about you Malc, your ceaselessly inventive way of insulting people. But I've got to admit, that's genuinely original and brilliant.
Not so sure about the original but an excellent use of Rabbie.
That's what's so original! Responding exactly in kind with an aposite quotation from the same source isn't done often enough on here!
Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.
Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.
“If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”
I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
Because it is Conservative Party policy not to have an English parliament, apart of course from the one there already is at Westminster.
It is Conservative party policy to have English votes for English laws though.
If and when we go back into opposition within a few years I expect party policy would shift towards an English parliament as the first and quickest route back to power before building a UK majority again
No, it isn't any more - EVEL has been scrapped. We've discussed this several times.
Though many Tory MPs opposed that decision like Redwood and rightly so. If we got a Starmer government without a majority in England no EVEL would be a big issue.
If and when we go into opposition we will get our party back on that and Tory members and by then likely Tory MPs too will push and force through support for an English parliament as the next stage
It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.
Nope. If the cabinet gives in now then we will be locked down every winter for years to come.
fair enough as long as you are prepared to accept peoples grannies will die as a result of that decision
If they are over 80 peoples Grannies will die anyway sadly, Covid or no Covid.
For the double vaccinated plus boosted under 80s, death rates from Covid are near zero
HMQ is 95, just so you know. Life doesn't end at 80.
For most people it does, average UK life expectancy is 81
See your legendary maths ability is on display again.
a) It doesn't. Most people exceed 80. That is what average means.
b) Life expectancy of an 81 year old is about 90.
Average age of death from Covid for the vaccinated is 85, average age of death in the UK is 81.
Restrictions affect the whole population not just over 80s, there will therefore be no further restrictions on the vaccinated while we Tories remain in power.
We do not shut down society again post vaccination for people most of whom would soon be dead anyway on average even without Covid. Nor for those who have been offered but refused vaccinations and boosters
That average of 85 is for the whole population, so it's pulled down by younger people. Anyone who is 80 or above will die at a later average age. So you're writing them off earlier than in reality.
It is the whole population who would be impacted by further restrictions, not just over 80s. Governments take decisions for the whole of society, not just over 80s
What, like raising National Insurance on the working so the inheritable wealth of over-80s needing social care is protected?
@RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.
I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.
lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
Will you be calling for it each day (or perhaps twice a day just to make sure everyone sees it) going forward?
And the implication of your earlier post is that you made the first call before studying the data. A reflex perhaps?
Please withdraw your remark that I call for it "as my hobby" as that is wrong.
I will not be posting the same remark twice a day, absolutely not.
Yet you’ve done exactly that today.
Well it won't be happening going forward. Withdraw the remark that "calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day." as I have not called for a lockdown in a long time.
If you will not, I ask you to disengage with my posts.
Yea you have, you called for one this morning.
Calling for a lockdown twice in the last many, many months is not "as night follows day".
Please disengage now or I will ignore you going forward.
You don’t think it was inevitable the moment the new variant appeared?
If I was to look at the number of times various commenters had called for a lockdown, I am confident that you would be at the top. I don’t think it’s an unfair accusation that you do it quite often.
Find the last time I called for lockdown other than earlier today.
Disengage now. Or that is it RobD.
Friendly advice. These guys aren't worth arguing with on what you said when. As a rare voice on here calling for restrictions, which is hardly a unique view amongst those studying the epidemic, that makes your opinion interesting, whether right or wrong.
Yep. You are in a small minority on here. But a much larger one amongst the general public. That happens sometimes. It doesn't make you wrong. At all. For your own mental health please consider that an attack on your views is not necessarily an attack on you personally. Everyone desperately wants this to be over. Everyone. Desperately. There is a possibility that this may be the beginning of the end. Your saying "Not so fast!" is exactly what many people don't want to hear. Hence the visceral reaction.
Thanks friend but people are being nasty and shouting me down, smearing and lying about me. I will not have it hence they are ignored.
I hope it is over too. I still hope I am wrong, I hate the idea of a lockdown and what it will do to my mental health but that is simply how I see it now.
Please stay safe.
CHB, I think you can hold your view and gain a bit more deference from other posters here if you can cite data/experience/logic. Doctors on PB are doing a good job of that, and are generally well received.
If I were you, I'd concentrate on the rate of back fill on deaths data, in particular. I'd also look at how hospitals are responding - if there is evidence that our excess deaths are going to increase (Covid or not) then your argument will gain currency.
You could stretch it out to explain how this damages the economy - locking down later = locking down for longer.
I'm open to these ideas if you lay out the data and explanation.
I don't agree with them yet because the specimen date deaths data indicates no increase so far. I also don't agree with closing the country down to save anti-vaxxers, frankly, so you'll have to persuade me on that one too.
NB "Models" is not a worthy explanation. You can chuck any old nonsense into a calculator. And a model is a calculator with half the buttons missing.
A decent post. I don't want lockdowns either. I would rather an early measured response to avoid them. I suspect Horse is nervous that inaction has put us past the point of no return. I hope Johnson is right, but there are a number of posters who are selecting evidence to fit that frame.
There are also too many ride or die Covid gunslingers on here who confuse wearing a mask with a full lockdown.
I think we should have had extra restrictions on Boxing Day at the latest. Boris is hamstrung by the right wing nutters though.
Whilst I'm not convinced that a full lockdown could've put a lid on Omicron, I'm willing to concede it as a possibility.
The kind of something-must-be-done, cosmetic initiatives that have been brought in by S/W/NI, not so much.
Let's see where the case rates in the home nations are in about ten days' time. I think that there's a strong chance that the rest of the UK will be doing no better than England, i.e. there will be no evidence that additional restrictions have helped against the new variant at all. If we're really lucky then Omicron will have followed the South African pattern by that point - peaked and gone into decline - in which case England, having been hit hardest first, might even be doing better than S/W/NI by that point.
I know it's painful to contemplate the possibility that the Tory right could be proven to have been correct in this instance. If that does transpire to be the case then maybe applying the principle of stopped clocks might offer a mechanism for coping with the disappointment?
I should have said “uncertainty that is outside their control”
Risk is one thing - that can be planned for and how a business makes money
But whether there is a Brexit deal or No Deal has a huge impact on returns and there is SFA they can do about it. So they sit on their hands for many major investments
… plus when you are talking about aggregate statistics like we were big business is very important…
Yes, I remember the former Novartis CEO Vasella (who you probably know) telling me that levels of taxation and regulation were not in principle a problem, since they were well-defined issues that could be assessed rationally. But unpredictable governments - who might nationalise you suddenly, or do something to disrupt your supply chain or the economy - were something to steer clear of, however attractive the current environment might look. (The other factor he looked for most was levels of skilled staff in the country, which hadn't occurred to me as a major issue.) Novartis is one of the leading global pharma companies with 20 national branches, so probably typical of multinationals deciding where to invest.
I don’t envy the decision Johnson or the cabinet has to make and this time I did not call it earlier but of course I wish I had in the sense we could have saved lives. But I do think this time this has been a very tough decision to make.
And some unsolicited advice. You seem to want to make up rules for engagement on pb. That’s not how it works....
Great to see that all 4 nations of the UK have hit the target of offering a booster shot to all adults by today. Its a remarkable achievement.
A shame more haven't bothered to come forward for their shot, although some will be ineligible due to having had Covid within 28 days but still.
Now that everyone's had the opportunity to get boosted, if anyone's declined to do so then there's absolutely no reason to have lockdowns to protect them from their own decisions in January.
We have 4.37 million people who have had one vaccination only and nearly 14 million who have had two vaccinations but not a third so the "booster campaign" still has a way to go and some of the more grandiose targets of two or three weeks ago have not been met.
That said, we are approaching 60% with three vaccinations so we are getting there.
Like you, I don't currently see an argument for "lockdown" (a ludicrous catch-all word which means whatever you want it to mean). The question is whether the current "Plan B" restrictions can be relaxed back to "Plan A" in the next month or so - I suspect not. While nowhere near as alarming as this time last year, the numbers of hospitalisations are rising and that's the figure that worries me far more than case numbers.
However, having protected so many of the vulnerable, it's in my view very unlikely we'll approach the numbers of last year.
Thoughts turn to whether and when a fourth vaccination may be required in April or May - the efficacy of three vaccinations will inevitably decline over time but unless the virus dishes up a nasty new variant, I'm fairly sanguine about further vaccination until next autumn.
@RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.
I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.
lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
Sure, if six hours ago isn't a long time, then no you haven't.
Or is this still part of the same "call"?
Other than earlier today, when did I last call for one.
Not in a very long time. Please disengage now and do not smear me.
Yesterday and on occasions previously
Indeed I specifically asked you yesterday when you called for a lockdown to explain the restrictions you would impose
What occasions previously.
Yesterday I said it roughly twice.
Cite those other occasions now. Or you will be ignored going forward.
Get a grip you get more belligerent every day , there will soon be no-one left to fall out with. Take a chill pill and stop imagining everyone is against you.
Much of the site has become so boring of late - a whole load of personal spats about sfa. Focus on issues would e so refreshing. Don't like someone - ignore! Hopefully absolutely no-one will rrespond to this post! HNY!
Happy New Year to you Felix, certainly the quality of banter has really dropped, all doom and gloom and panic.
I concur. PB is usually quite readable, even when wildly off-topic, which is the default.
But lately you have to scroll through pages and pages of absolute tosh to find anything worth perusing.
@RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.
I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.
lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
Sure, if six hours ago isn't a long time, then no you haven't.
Or is this still part of the same "call"?
Other than earlier today, when did I last call for one.
Not in a very long time. Please disengage now and do not smear me.
Yesterday and on occasions previously
Indeed I specifically asked you yesterday when you called for a lockdown to explain the restrictions you would impose
What occasions previously.
Yesterday I said it roughly twice.
Cite those other occasions now. Or you will be ignored going forward.
Get a grip you get more belligerent every day , there will soon be no-one left to fall out with. Take a chill pill and stop imagining everyone is against you.
Ummm....
“O, wad some Power the giftie gie us To see oursels as others see us! It wad frae monie a blunder free us, An' foolish notion.”
Ye ugly, creepan, blastet wonner, Detested, shunn’d, by saunt an’ sinner, How daur ye set your fit upon her, Sae fine a Lady! Gae somewhere else and seek your dinner, On some poor body.
That's what we all love about you Malc, your ceaselessly inventive way of insulting people. But I've got to admit, that's genuinely original and brilliant.
Not so sure about the original but an excellent use of Rabbie.
We do not shut down society again post vaccination for people most of whom would soon be dead anyway on average even without Covid. Nor for those who have been offered but refused vaccinations and boosters
Not convinced this line of argument is helpful to you.
It is for me as a Conservative. Just 4% of Conservative members want any further restrictions on the vaccinated. If you align with that 4% you are now closer to Starmer, Drakeford and Sturgeon than the Tory base
Are we prepared to consider learning from other European countries that don't use the NHS model?
Are we prepared to spend a lot more money on healthcare?
Also the German figure is bunkum for the purposes of comparison, that bed figure is not staffed like an NHS ICU bed.
Exactly right. A “bed” in health service terms is really about the staff and infrastructure around the patient.
That said, health and social care are not sufficiently funded and this ends up creating the sort of long term problems that come from false economies. We need to spend a higher proportion of GDP on public services, and we need to get that from tax. But first and foremost we need GDP growth to fund the tax which funds services. Which means we also need to spend and invest way more in education and skills. And we need to get back into the European single market pronto. Enough with the silly sovereignty experiment. It doesn’t pay the bills.
. . . I'm really struggling to see your logic as to why we need to rejoin the Single Market? Its almost as if that was simply already your opinion pre-Brexit and nothing has changed your mind and there's no actual data or evidence to say that the experiment is silly. Like you're as open minded to Brexit as Pagel is to Covid?
There’s an element of sophistry in your response, of course. We had the largest fall in GDP of the G7 in 2020 (over 9%!) by quite some margin, then the largest bounce back (by a bit) this year, leaving us around 1% worse than France has done over the 2 years.
The sophistry of course is in the fact we were in the single market as a result of the transition period last year. But the rot started in 2016 as can be seen not only in GDP numbers but also in business investment which has been completely flat since 2016.
It’s not and need not be a political or partisan point. Of course exiting the single market (and to a lesser extent customs union) reduces potential growth because it introduces trade friction and costs / bureaucracy that aren’t there before. They’ll increase yet more on Saturday when we bring in the GVMS on all imports. But that was a trade off in exchange for sovereignty and reduced immigration. I just don’t think it was worth it.
I don’t think you can point at business investment from 2016-20 to argue Brexit is a “failure”
The one thing business hates more than anything else is uncertainty… and there has been plenty of that in the last few years.
Let’s check in again in about 20 years and then we’ll have the data to form a tentative view
"The one thing business hates more than anything else is uncertainty" - my response to that is always You poor love, if you hate uncertainty you need to move to a more restful economy where commodity and currency prices and interest rates and the weather and human nature are all set in advance every 5 years
The sort of business which hates uncertainty is the sort of established behemoth which sits on the CBI and gets to be a talking head on the telly. Small and young businesses thrive on it.
I don't think this is true in general. Businesses will look for their greatest advantage. Risk and uncertainty are a cost. If a business can be based in eg the Netherlands without a particular Brexit risk, all other things being equal they will choose that country. The relative drop off in UK business investment since 2016 reflects business making those rational choices. Now the risk has been firmed up as an actual cost, that lost opportunity won't come back.
Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.
Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.
“If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”
I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
Because it is Conservative Party policy not to have an English parliament, apart of course from the one there already is at Westminster.
It is Conservative party policy to have English votes for English laws though.
If and when we go back into opposition within a few years I expect party policy would shift towards an English parliament as the first and quickest route back to power before building a UK majority again
No, it isn't any more - EVEL has been scrapped. We've discussed this several times.
Though many Tory MPs opposed that decision like Redwood and rightly so. If we got a Starmer government without a majority in England no EVEL would be a big issue.
If and when we go into opposition we will get our party back on that and Tory members and by then likely Tory MPs too will push and force through support for an English parliament as the next stage
Still not party policy, is it? You said it was party policy.
Karol Sikora: "During any bad flu season, some tens of thousands of excess deaths could be recorded. Catching a nasty bout of influenza is debilitating and even fatal, yet as a society we have accepted a level of risk to keep the country functioning as normal. Thousands of lives could be saved every winter from similar viruses if we fully locked down, but we don’t."
telegrap
Actually, he's persuading me that if we have a really bad flu season, we should have the same sort of recommendations as we do now - wfh if possible, avoid crowds, etc. I don't accept the sequence::
1. Omicron is usually sort of like flu 2. Flu can sometimes kill thousands in a bad year. 3. We don't do anything to stop flu. 4. Therefore we should do nothing to stop Omicron.
Great to see that all 4 nations of the UK have hit the target of offering a booster shot to all adults by today. Its a remarkable achievement.
A shame more haven't bothered to come forward for their shot, although some will be ineligible due to having had Covid within 28 days but still.
Now that everyone's had the opportunity to get boosted, if anyone's declined to do so then there's absolutely no reason to have lockdowns to protect them from their own decisions in January.
We have 4.37 million people who have had one vaccination only and nearly 14 million who have had two vaccinations but not a third so the "booster campaign" still has a way to go and some of the more grandiose targets of two or three weeks ago have not been met.
That said, we are approaching 60% with three vaccinations so we are getting there.
Like you, I don't currently see an argument for "lockdown" (a ludicrous catch-all word which means whatever you want it to mean). The question is whether the current "Plan B" restrictions can be relaxed back to "Plan A" in the next month or so - I suspect not. While nowhere near as alarming as this time last year, the numbers of hospitalisations are rising and that's the figure that worries me far more than case numbers.
However, having protected so many of the vulnerable, it's in my view very unlikely we'll approach the numbers of last year.
Thoughts turn to whether and when a fourth vaccination may be required in April or May - the efficacy of three vaccinations will inevitably decline over time but unless the virus dishes up a nasty new variant, I'm fairly sanguine about further vaccination until next autumn.
I suspect a lot of people waiting to have a booster are like me - probably had covid so waiting a few weeks before getting a booster because are supposed to wait 4 weeks between infection and getting rejabbed.
@RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.
I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.
lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
Will you be calling for it each day (or perhaps twice a day just to make sure everyone sees it) going forward?
And the implication of your earlier post is that you made the first call before studying the data. A reflex perhaps?
Please withdraw your remark that I call for it "as my hobby" as that is wrong.
I will not be posting the same remark twice a day, absolutely not.
Yet you’ve done exactly that today.
Well it won't be happening going forward. Withdraw the remark that "calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day." as I have not called for a lockdown in a long time.
If you will not, I ask you to disengage with my posts.
Yea you have, you called for one this morning.
Calling for a lockdown twice in the last many, many months is not "as night follows day".
Please disengage now or I will ignore you going forward.
You don’t think it was inevitable the moment the new variant appeared?
If I was to look at the number of times various commenters had called for a lockdown, I am confident that you would be at the top. I don’t think it’s an unfair accusation that you do it quite often.
Find the last time I called for lockdown other than earlier today.
Disengage now. Or that is it RobD.
Friendly advice. These guys aren't worth arguing with on what you said when. As a rare voice on here calling for restrictions, which is hardly a unique view amongst those studying the epidemic, that makes your opinion interesting, whether right or wrong.
Yep. You are in a small minority on here. But a much larger one amongst the general public. That happens sometimes. It doesn't make you wrong. At all. For your own mental health please consider that an attack on your views is not necessarily an attack on you personally. Everyone desperately wants this to be over. Everyone. Desperately. There is a possibility that this may be the beginning of the end. Your saying "Not so fast!" is exactly what many people don't want to hear. Hence the visceral reaction.
Thanks friend but people are being nasty and shouting me down, smearing and lying about me. I will not have it hence they are ignored.
I hope it is over too. I still hope I am wrong, I hate the idea of a lockdown and what it will do to my mental health but that is simply how I see it now.
Please stay safe.
Here's the skill you need to learn. You don't need to be concerned about the views and opinions of people you do not respect at all. What does it matter to you what PB posters you consider to be awful think about you? Or even say about you?
Once you can assign value zero to what they say then it doesn't matter whether what they are saying is about you or not - its still worth zero.
Its my big positive takeaway from my 4 years on Thornaby Town Council. And proved to be a massive weapon when facing down his eminence the Mayor for Life because you could ask the question they don't want to answer, endure 10 minutes of mouth foaming rant, smile and drag the chair back to the unanswered question and invite him to try again. Used to drive him nuts because attacking opponents personally was all he had.
We do not shut down society again post vaccination for people most of whom would soon be dead anyway on average even without Covid. Nor for those who have been offered but refused vaccinations and boosters
Not convinced this line of argument is helpful to you.
It is for me as a Conservative. Just 4% of Conservative members want any further restrictions on the vaccinated. If you align with that 4% you are now closer to Starmer, Drakeford and Sturgeon than the Tory base
Great to see that all 4 nations of the UK have hit the target of offering a booster shot to all adults by today. Its a remarkable achievement.
A shame more haven't bothered to come forward for their shot, although some will be ineligible due to having had Covid within 28 days but still.
Now that everyone's had the opportunity to get boosted, if anyone's declined to do so then there's absolutely no reason to have lockdowns to protect them from their own decisions in January.
We have 4.37 million people who have had one vaccination only and nearly 14 million who have had two vaccinations but not a third so the "booster campaign" still has a way to go and some of the more grandiose targets of two or three weeks ago have not been met.
That said, we are approaching 60% with three vaccinations so we are getting there.
Like you, I don't currently see an argument for "lockdown" (a ludicrous catch-all word which means whatever you want it to mean). The question is whether the current "Plan B" restrictions can be relaxed back to "Plan A" in the next month or so - I suspect not. While nowhere near as alarming as this time last year, the numbers of hospitalisations are rising and that's the figure that worries me far more than case numbers.
However, having protected so many of the vulnerable, it's in my view very unlikely we'll approach the numbers of last year.
Thoughts turn to whether and when a fourth vaccination may be required in April or May - the efficacy of three vaccinations will inevitably decline over time but unless the virus dishes up a nasty new variant, I'm fairly sanguine about further vaccination until next autumn.
Which grandiose targets?
Some people extrapolate to assume 100% of people will get vaccinated, but regrettably we know that's not true.
Some people have had one dose or two doses then died of natural causes - they're never going to get another doses.
Others had one dose or two and maybe had an adverse reaction or didn't like the experience or simply no longer want to be vaccinated. See idiots like Farage saying they've had two doses but 'never again' as if we don't offer people flu jabs annually.
All that can ever be done is offer people jabs. Anyone who wanted to be jabbed by today could have gotten an appointment by today. So for anyone else now its a case of either waiting for them to become eligible (eg if a recent case means they're ineligible) or convincing the remaining dregs to come in.
We do not shut down society again post vaccination for people most of whom would soon be dead anyway on average even without Covid. Nor for those who have been offered but refused vaccinations and boosters
Not convinced this line of argument is helpful to you.
It is for me as a Conservative. Just 4% of Conservative members want any further restrictions on the vaccinated. If you align with that 4% you are now closer to Starmer, Drakeford and Sturgeon than the Tory base
I wasn’t thinking about what you were arguing *for* but *how* you were arguing for it.
“Your granny is going to die soon anyway” may be accurate but it’s unlikely to convince many people
IT's also germane to point oiut that grannies vote Tory disproportionately, as do their late middle aged children. So it may not be that popular within the party for a young (?) Tory activist to be so keen to kill them off. Just saying, being helpful etc.
It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.
Nope. If the cabinet gives in now then we will be locked down every winter for years to come.
fair enough as long as you are prepared to accept peoples grannies will die as a result of that decision
If they are over 80 peoples Grannies will die anyway sadly, Covid or no Covid.
For the double vaccinated plus boosted under 80s, death rates from Covid are near zero
HMQ is 95, just so you know. Life doesn't end at 80.
For most people it does, average UK life expectancy is 81
See your legendary maths ability is on display again.
a) It doesn't. Most people exceed 80. That is what average means.
b) Life expectancy of an 81 year old is about 90.
If we're talking legendary maths abilities. I agree with b) but I'd quibble at a) - what happens to most people reflects the median, not the average.
a) Is still probably accurate. The median almost inevitably is higher than the mean.
Someone dying as a child or teenager etc drags down the average far more than an 85 year old dying drags it up. So for everyone who dies at 20, there have to be many more who die older than 81 to make the average become 81.
I should have said “uncertainty that is outside their control”
Risk is one thing - that can be planned for and how a business makes money
But whether there is a Brexit deal or No Deal has a huge impact on returns and there is SFA they can do about it. So they sit on their hands for many major investments
… plus when you are talking about aggregate statistics like we were big business is very important…
Yes, I remember the former Novartis CEO Vasella (who you probably know) telling me that levels of taxation and regulation were not in principle a problem, since they were well-defined issues that could be assessed rationally. But unpredictable governments - who might nationalise you suddenly, or do something to disrupt your supply chain or the economy - were something to steer clear of, however attractive the current environment might look. (The other factor he looked for most was levels of skilled staff in the country, which hadn't occurred to me as a major issue.) Novartis is one of the leading global pharma companies with 20 national branches, so probably typical of multinationals deciding where to invest.
Indeed. Dan is a really smart guy although I haven’t spoken to him for years.
I remember long discussions with one of his peers about a potential investment in Algeria - the government changed the rules to say you needed local manufacturing and there was the opportunity to buy a 50% stake in a local company that Lazard was touting around. Ultimately concern was that if the government had changed the rules once they could do so again so they went for a local distribution / contract manufacturing approach instead
I don’t envy the decision Johnson or the cabinet has to make and this time I did not call it earlier but of course I wish I had in the sense we could have saved lives. But I do think this time this has been a very tough decision to make.
And some unsolicited advice. You seem to want to make up rules for engagement on pb. That’s not how it works....
Karol Sikora: "During any bad flu season, some tens of thousands of excess deaths could be recorded. Catching a nasty bout of influenza is debilitating and even fatal, yet as a society we have accepted a level of risk to keep the country functioning as normal. Thousands of lives could be saved every winter from similar viruses if we fully locked down, but we don’t."
telegrap
Actually, he's persuading me that if we have a really bad flu season, we should have the same sort of recommendations as we do now - wfh if possible, avoid crowds, etc. I don't accept the sequence::
1. Omicron is usually sort of like flu 2. Flu can sometimes kill thousands in a bad year. 3. We don't do anything to stop flu. 4. Therefore we should do nothing to stop Omicron.
It's also ignoring the point that we don't ignore the flu: we spend millions each year developing and distributing vaccines against it, and getting the vaccines into as many people's arms or noses as possible.
Surprise surprise, handy having your buddies do the investigating , guaranteed to be cleared every time.
Happily it doesn't exactly sound like Peppa is being given a clean bill of health. Downing Street so chaotic that he couldn't know enough of what was going on is not a good thing. Especially when the Standards Commissioner you tried to sack is just getting started.
We know there is a fire. Peppa is running around shouting "fire"...
Looking at the abstract from the Nature article this was carried ou prior to the vaccine rollout in the UK ( November 2020) Given the effectiveness of vaccination amongst the primarily older patients that suffer from Hip Fractures I would suggest these original findings would need to be taken lightly.
We do not shut down society again post vaccination for people most of whom would soon be dead anyway on average even without Covid. Nor for those who have been offered but refused vaccinations and boosters
Not convinced this line of argument is helpful to you.
It is for me as a Conservative. Just 4% of Conservative members want any further restrictions on the vaccinated. If you align with that 4% you are now closer to Starmer, Drakeford and Sturgeon than the Tory base
Surprise surprise, handy having your buddies do the investigating , guaranteed to be cleared every time.
Happily it doesn't exactly sound like Peppa is being given a clean bill of health. Downing Street so chaotic that he couldn't know enough of what was going on is not a good thing. Especially when the Standards Commissioner you tried to sack is just getting started.
We know there is a fire. Peppa is running around shouting "fire"...
For @Andy_JS , based on hospital admissions we are approx 3-4 weeks behind SA but there are lots of metrics you could use to determine how far behind we are so treat that with loads of salt.
The big cofounder for knowing how far behind we are is that SA had very low Delta admissions (585 admissions in the week before Omicron took off) whereas we had loads.
Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.
Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.
“If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”
I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
Because it is Conservative Party policy not to have an English parliament, apart of course from the one there already is at Westminster.
It is Conservative party policy to have English votes for English laws though.
If and when we go back into opposition within a few years I expect party policy would shift towards an English parliament as the first and quickest route back to power before building a UK majority again
No, it isn't any more - EVEL has been scrapped. We've discussed this several times.
Though many Tory MPs opposed that decision like Redwood and rightly so. If we got a Starmer government without a majority in England no EVEL would be a big issue.
If and when we go into opposition we will get our party back on that and Tory members and by then likely Tory MPs too will push and force through support for an English parliament as the next stage
The problem with "lets have an English parliament" is what becomes the framework to support all of these national parliaments.
The answer is "federalism". A new federal UK with a greatly reduced Westminster managing defence, the national economy, foreign relations and a few blanket standards. Everything else is devolved to the 4 nations who can largely self-govern.
If you want and English parliament can I ask you to go the whole hog and support federalism? Otherwise your shiny new parliament in Hartlepool will be hampered by the same non-written constitution and unworkable overlaps as we are stuck with now.
Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.
Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.
“If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”
I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
Because it is Conservative Party policy not to have an English parliament, apart of course from the one there already is at Westminster.
It is Conservative party policy to have English votes for English laws though.
If and when we go back into opposition within a few years I expect party policy would shift towards an English parliament as the first and quickest route back to power before building a UK majority again
No, it isn't any more - EVEL has been scrapped. We've discussed this several times.
Though many Tory MPs opposed that decision like Redwood and rightly so. If we got a Starmer government without a majority in England no EVEL would be a big issue.
If and when we go into opposition we will get our party back on that and Tory members and by then likely Tory MPs too will push and force through support for an English parliament as the next stage
The problem with "lets have an English parliament" is what becomes the framework to support all of these national parliaments.
The answer is "federalism". A new federal UK with a greatly reduced Westminster managing defence, the national economy, foreign relations and a few blanket standards. Everything else is devolved to the 4 nations who can largely self-govern.
If you want and English parliament can I ask you to go the whole hog and support federalism? Otherwise your shiny new parliament in Hartlepool will be hampered by the same non-written constitution and unworkable overlaps as we are stuck with now.
I have no problem with a Federal UK no. Though I recognise I may be in a minority in the party on that for now
We do not shut down society again post vaccination for people most of whom would soon be dead anyway on average even without Covid. Nor for those who have been offered but refused vaccinations and boosters
That average of 85 is for the whole population, so it's pulled down by younger people. Anyone who is 80 or above will die at a later average age. So you're writing them off earlier than in reality.
It is the whole population who would be impacted by further restrictions, not just over 80s. Governments take decisions for the whole of society, not just over 80s
You seem to think the under 80s want to party like 1999, but when you hit that milestone It's all Pleeeeeze, just six months more of sweet, sweet life, at any cost to anyone else. Actually all the 80+ people I know are if possible even more fed up with lockdown than I am.
We do not shut down society again post vaccination for people most of whom would soon be dead anyway on average even without Covid. Nor for those who have been offered but refused vaccinations and boosters
Not convinced this line of argument is helpful to you.
It is for me as a Conservative. Just 4% of Conservative members want any further restrictions on the vaccinated. If you align with that 4% you are now closer to Starmer, Drakeford and Sturgeon than the Tory base
That's a "ConHome panel", not a poll of Conservative Members. Afaics.
The 2 are interlinked, as most of the survey takers are Tory members. Polls also show most 2019 Conservative voters oppose any further restrictions on the vaccinated now
We do not shut down society again post vaccination for people most of whom would soon be dead anyway on average even without Covid. Nor for those who have been offered but refused vaccinations and boosters
That average of 85 is for the whole population, so it's pulled down by younger people. Anyone who is 80 or above will die at a later average age. So you're writing them off earlier than in reality.
It is the whole population who would be impacted by further restrictions, not just over 80s. Governments take decisions for the whole of society, not just over 80s
What, like raising National Insurance on the working so the inheritable wealth of over-80s needing social care is protected?
Plenty of under 80s benefit from inheritance, they would not benefit from more restrictions if vaccinated
It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.
Nope. If the cabinet gives in now then we will be locked down every winter for years to come.
fair enough as long as you are prepared to accept peoples grannies will die as a result of that decision
If they are over 80 peoples Grannies will die anyway sadly, Covid or no Covid.
For the double vaccinated plus boosted under 80s, death rates from Covid are near zero
HMQ is 95, just so you know. Life doesn't end at 80.
For most people it does, average UK life expectancy is 81
We bought someone’s life insurance policy when they were 85 and they needed some capital. They are currently well over 100…
The bastards😭
I know! We are still going to make an 8% IRR over the life of the investment… but it’s hard to want to crystallise the return
I can’t disclose too much for GDPR reasons but they are in the top handful of oldest people on the UK!
Lesson: Buy a portfolio !
An 'extended family' member, at about 80, 'sold' her large house..... N Wales coast, suitable for development..... to a developer, some 20-25 years ago, on condition she could stay it until death or gross infirmity.. She died about 18 months ago, in it, some 5 years AFTER the 'developer' himself had died.
Great to see that all 4 nations of the UK have hit the target of offering a booster shot to all adults by today. Its a remarkable achievement.
A shame more haven't bothered to come forward for their shot, although some will be ineligible due to having had Covid within 28 days but still.
Now that everyone's had the opportunity to get boosted, if anyone's declined to do so then there's absolutely no reason to have lockdowns to protect them from their own decisions in January.
We have 4.37 million people who have had one vaccination only and nearly 14 million who have had two vaccinations but not a third so the "booster campaign" still has a way to go and some of the more grandiose targets of two or three weeks ago have not been met.
That said, we are approaching 60% with three vaccinations so we are getting there.
Like you, I don't currently see an argument for "lockdown" (a ludicrous catch-all word which means whatever you want it to mean). The question is whether the current "Plan B" restrictions can be relaxed back to "Plan A" in the next month or so - I suspect not. While nowhere near as alarming as this time last year, the numbers of hospitalisations are rising and that's the figure that worries me far more than case numbers.
However, having protected so many of the vulnerable, it's in my view very unlikely we'll approach the numbers of last year.
Thoughts turn to whether and when a fourth vaccination may be required in April or May - the efficacy of three vaccinations will inevitably decline over time but unless the virus dishes up a nasty new variant, I'm fairly sanguine about further vaccination until next autumn.
Which grandiose targets?
Some people extrapolate to assume 100% of people will get vaccinated, but regrettably we know that's not true.
Some people have had one dose or two doses then died of natural causes - they're never going to get another doses.
Others had one dose or two and maybe had an adverse reaction or didn't like the experience or simply no longer want to be vaccinated. See idiots like Farage saying they've had two doses but 'never again' as if we don't offer people flu jabs annually.
All that can ever be done is offer people jabs. Anyone who wanted to be jabbed by today could have gotten an appointment by today. So for anyone else now its a case of either waiting for them to become eligible (eg if a recent case means they're ineligible) or convincing the remaining dregs to come in.
"the remaining dregs" more hateful and abusive language. please show love and compassion
@RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.
I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.
lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
Sure, if six hours ago isn't a long time, then no you haven't.
Or is this still part of the same "call"?
Other than earlier today, when did I last call for one.
Not in a very long time. Please disengage now and do not smear me.
Yesterday and on occasions previously
Indeed I specifically asked you yesterday when you called for a lockdown to explain the restrictions you would impose
What occasions previously.
Yesterday I said it roughly twice.
Cite those other occasions now. Or you will be ignored going forward.
Get a grip you get more belligerent every day , there will soon be no-one left to fall out with. Take a chill pill and stop imagining everyone is against you.
Much of the site has become so boring of late - a whole load of personal spats about sfa. Focus on issues would e so refreshing. Don't like someone - ignore! Hopefully absolutely no-one will rrespond to this post! HNY!
Happy New Year to you Felix, certainly the quality of banter has really dropped, all doom and gloom and panic.
I'm actually optimistic, and have been through much of the pandemic. Yes, the situation's been sh*t, but life's what you make it. There were things I could not do, so I did the things I could.
Talking of which, today's my last run of the year. If a meteorite does not hit me in the next couple of hours, and I don't crash my car on the way to the start, then I will have done one run every day this year. I know running doesn't float everyone's boat, but I tried to find things that kept my mood up. Therefore I'll have achieved something I'm proud of (even if it's a little nutty) despite the pandemic.
It's given me something to concentrate and obsess on, and it's certainly been difficult, including many early mornings, especially during home schooling. But the difficulty adds to the sense of achievement.
I've also encouraged the little 'un to do the same with a certain activity, and I think it's helped him.
I certainly don't subscribe to the 'lockdown equals no life' viewpoint.
depends lockdown experience was very different in a small city flat versus a large country house. Sadly our decision makerstended to fall in the latter category
It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.
Nope. If the cabinet gives in now then we will be locked down every winter for years to come.
fair enough as long as you are prepared to accept peoples grannies will die as a result of that decision
If they are over 80 peoples Grannies will die anyway sadly, Covid or no Covid.
For the double vaccinated plus boosted under 80s, death rates from Covid are near zero
HMQ is 95, just so you know. Life doesn't end at 80.
For most people it does, average UK life expectancy is 81
We bought someone’s life insurance policy when they were 85 and they needed some capital. They are currently well over 100…
The bastards😭
I know! We are still going to make an 8% IRR over the life of the investment… but it’s hard to want to crystallise the return
I can’t disclose too much for GDPR reasons but they are in the top handful of oldest people on the UK!
Lesson: Buy a portfolio !
An 'extended family' member, at about 80, 'sold' her large house..... N Wales coast, suitable for development..... to a developer, some 20-25 years ago, on condition she could stay it until death or gross infirmity.. She died about 18 months ago, in it, some 5 years AFTER the 'developer' himself had died.
Do you know what the developer made on selling his "option" decades ago, if he did?
We do not shut down society again post vaccination for people most of whom would soon be dead anyway on average even without Covid. Nor for those who have been offered but refused vaccinations and boosters
Not convinced this line of argument is helpful to you.
It is for me as a Conservative. Just 4% of Conservative members want any further restrictions on the vaccinated. If you align with that 4% you are now closer to Starmer, Drakeford and Sturgeon than the Tory base
That's a "ConHome panel", not a poll of Conservative Members. Afaics.
The 2 are interlinked, as most of the survey takers are Tory members. Polls also show most 2019 Conservative voters oppose any further restrictions on the vaccinated now
Yes, and in the absence of a panel profiled relative to the makeup of members, "X%" of Con Party members is rather over-precise, no?
We do not shut down society again post vaccination for people most of whom would soon be dead anyway on average even without Covid. Nor for those who have been offered but refused vaccinations and boosters
That average of 85 is for the whole population, so it's pulled down by younger people. Anyone who is 80 or above will die at a later average age. So you're writing them off earlier than in reality.
It is the whole population who would be impacted by further restrictions, not just over 80s. Governments take decisions for the whole of society, not just over 80s
You seem to think the under 80s want to party like 1999, but when you hit that milestone It's all Pleeeeeze, just six months more of sweet, sweet life, at any cost to anyone else. Actually all the 80+ people I know are if possible even more fed up with lockdown than I am.
Mrs C and I certainly are.
I am a generation below you, but I would do anything to prevent a March 2020 style lockdown, which is why I am comfortable adhering to the current far less stringent (than full lockdown) regulations here in Wales.
On the other hand, I don't run a bar or a nightclub, so I'm alright Jack, but then again, as far as I am aware neither does Bart the Pirate, who is advocating free love to steal a march on Covid fearties/ Remainers/ the left, and if that superspreads Covid, "to hell with oldies, they're gonna die anyway".
It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.
Nope. If the cabinet gives in now then we will be locked down every winter for years to come.
fair enough as long as you are prepared to accept peoples grannies will die as a result of that decision
If they are over 80 peoples Grannies will die anyway sadly, Covid or no Covid.
For the double vaccinated plus boosted under 80s, death rates from Covid are near zero
HMQ is 95, just so you know. Life doesn't end at 80.
For most people it does, average UK life expectancy is 81
We bought someone’s life insurance policy when they were 85 and they needed some capital. They are currently well over 100…
The bastards😭
I know! We are still going to make an 8% IRR over the life of the investment… but it’s hard to want to crystallise the return
I can’t disclose too much for GDPR reasons but they are in the top handful of oldest people on the UK!
Lesson: Buy a portfolio !
An 'extended family' member, at about 80, 'sold' her large house..... N Wales coast, suitable for development..... to a developer, some 20-25 years ago, on condition she could stay it until death or gross infirmity.. She died about 18 months ago, in it, some 5 years AFTER the 'developer' himself had died.
Do you know what the developer made on selling his "option" decades ago, if he did?
AFAIK, he never sold it. Certainly, until he fell ill, used to enquire every so often as to her health. Think his son took it over, but no-one I've spoken to has been near the place for ages, so I've no idea what happened to the site.
We do not shut down society again post vaccination for people most of whom would soon be dead anyway on average even without Covid. Nor for those who have been offered but refused vaccinations and boosters
That average of 85 is for the whole population, so it's pulled down by younger people. Anyone who is 80 or above will die at a later average age. So you're writing them off earlier than in reality.
It is the whole population who would be impacted by further restrictions, not just over 80s. Governments take decisions for the whole of society, not just over 80s
You seem to think the under 80s want to party like 1999, but when you hit that milestone It's all Pleeeeeze, just six months more of sweet, sweet life, at any cost to anyone else. Actually all the 80+ people I know are if possible even more fed up with lockdown than I am.
Mrs C and I certainly are.
I am a generation below you, but I would do anything to prevent a March 2020 style lockdown, which is why I am comfortable adhering to the current far less stringent (than full lockdown) regulations here in Wales.
On the other hand, I don't run a bar or a nightclub, so I'm alright Jack, but then again, as far as I am aware neither does Bart the Pirate, who is advocating free love to steal a march on Covid fearties/ Remainers/ the left, and if that superspreads Covid, "to hell with oldies, they're gonna die anyway".
I'm very glad I'm not still in the workforce, and I'm even happier (!) that I stopped running pharmacies 40 years ago. The last couple of years would have been extremely difficult.
It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.
Nope. If the cabinet gives in now then we will be locked down every winter for years to come.
fair enough as long as you are prepared to accept peoples grannies will die as a result of that decision
If they are over 80 peoples Grannies will die anyway sadly, Covid or no Covid.
For the double vaccinated plus boosted under 80s, death rates from Covid are near zero
HMQ is 95, just so you know. Life doesn't end at 80.
For most people it does, average UK life expectancy is 81
We bought someone’s life insurance policy when they were 85 and they needed some capital. They are currently well over 100…
The bastards😭
I know! We are still going to make an 8% IRR over the life of the investment… but it’s hard to want to crystallise the return
I can’t disclose too much for GDPR reasons but they are in the top handful of oldest people on the UK!
Lesson: Buy a portfolio !
An 'extended family' member, at about 80, 'sold' her large house..... N Wales coast, suitable for development..... to a developer, some 20-25 years ago, on condition she could stay it until death or gross infirmity.. She died about 18 months ago, in it, some 5 years AFTER the 'developer' himself had died.
Do you know what the developer made on selling his "option" decades ago, if he did?
AFAIK, he never sold it. Certainly, until he fell ill, used to enquire every so often as to her health. Think his son took it over, but no-one I've spoken to has been near the place for ages, so I've no idea what happened to the site.
Google satellite ...
The usual rule is that option fees are a very small % of the sales value, for exactly that reason.
It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.
Nope. If the cabinet gives in now then we will be locked down every winter for years to come.
fair enough as long as you are prepared to accept peoples grannies will die as a result of that decision
If they are over 80 peoples Grannies will die anyway sadly, Covid or no Covid.
For the double vaccinated plus boosted under 80s, death rates from Covid are near zero
HMQ is 95, just so you know. Life doesn't end at 80.
For most people it does, average UK life expectancy is 81
We bought someone’s life insurance policy when they were 85 and they needed some capital. They are currently well over 100…
The bastards😭
I know! We are still going to make an 8% IRR over the life of the investment… but it’s hard to want to crystallise the return
I can’t disclose too much for GDPR reasons but they are in the top handful of oldest people on the UK!
Lesson: Buy a portfolio !
An 'extended family' member, at about 80, 'sold' her large house..... N Wales coast, suitable for development..... to a developer, some 20-25 years ago, on condition she could stay it until death or gross infirmity.. She died about 18 months ago, in it, some 5 years AFTER the 'developer' himself had died.
Do you know what the developer made on selling his "option" decades ago, if he did?
AFAIK, he never sold it. Certainly, until he fell ill, used to enquire every so often as to her health. Think his son took it over, but no-one I've spoken to has been near the place for ages, so I've no idea what happened to the site.
Google satellite ...
The usual rule is that option fees are a very small % of the sales value, for exactly that reason.
Thought, but it was sister-in-law's relation; I only went there a couple of times, and as a passenger, so didn't really take account of route, and so not sure of exactly where it was. Might suggest that to in-laws when they zoom
@RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.
I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.
lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
Sure, if six hours ago isn't a long time, then no you haven't.
Or is this still part of the same "call"?
Other than earlier today, when did I last call for one.
Not in a very long time. Please disengage now and do not smear me.
Yesterday and on occasions previously
Indeed I specifically asked you yesterday when you called for a lockdown to explain the restrictions you would impose
What occasions previously.
Yesterday I said it roughly twice.
Cite those other occasions now. Or you will be ignored going forward.
Get a grip you get more belligerent every day , there will soon be no-one left to fall out with. Take a chill pill and stop imagining everyone is against you.
Ummm....
“O, wad some Power the giftie gie us To see oursels as others see us! It wad frae monie a blunder free us, An' foolish notion.”
Ye ugly, creepan, blastet wonner, Detested, shunn’d, by saunt an’ sinner, How daur ye set your fit upon her, Sae fine a Lady! Gae somewhere else and seek your dinner, On some poor body.
That's what we all love about you Malc, your ceaselessly inventive way of insulting people. But I've got to admit, that's genuinely original and brilliant.
Not so sure about the original but an excellent use of Rabbie.
COVID PCR test returned negative - in a little over 24 hours. So this sh!tty cold is just a sh!tty cold.
same symptoms but mine was positive. Would be impossible to tell difference.
My brother in Australia had a "cold" - until he got a PCR test. Trust you're soon on the mend.
@CarlottaVance Thanks Carlotta, still just like cold and sore throat , still infectious so isolation till 5th Jan supposedly. Not getting any worse so think that will be the worst of it.
Comments
And some unsolicited advice. You seem to want to make up rules for engagement on pb. That’s not how it works. Ignore posters if you don’t like them, or what they say. If you disagree say so. You constantly seek to call things out. No ones gives a shit on here. You say you haven’t called for a lockdown for ages? I can’t be bothered to wade through your posts, but I don’t believe that’s true by any reasonable definition of ages. If not that, you’ve endlessly spammed ‘we’re in trouble’ in recent days, over and over. You may not be trying to, but you do wind people up.
I don’t think it’s fair to use your mental health issues as cover for how you interact with others. What do you know of their mental state? Not everyone is or wishes to be as open as you.
As we go into 2022, let’s all try to be a bit more civil.
The sort of business which hates uncertainty is the sort of established behemoth which sits on the CBI and gets to be a talking head on the telly. Small and young businesses thrive on it.
Detested, shunn’d, by saunt an’ sinner,
How daur ye set your fit upon her,
Sae fine a Lady!
Gae somewhere else and seek your dinner,
On some poor body.
I think Brexit was the pitchfork moment you refer to. The question is whether there is a “Reign of Terror” to come
* certainly in the US
The risk averse are generally a lot bigger and louder than those that are just getting on with seeking the opportunities before them.
You know you've reached rock bottom when you're told you have character flaws by a man who hanged his predecessor in a military coup.
They are enjoying life and retirement. My little 'un is seven; I'd like him to get to know his grandparents for as long as possible, as he has much he can learn from them - as I did from my grandparents.
(*) A great-aunt who is only ten years older than my dad.
COVID sitrep for New Year’s Eve: The wave of omicron variant COVID-19 infections continues to spread around the world. Hospital admissions are rising across the UK but there are important differences to earlier waves…. 1/12
https://twitter.com/rupert_pearse/status/1476821951171731459?s=20
A shame more haven't bothered to come forward for their shot, although some will be ineligible due to having had Covid within 28 days but still.
Now that everyone's had the opportunity to get boosted, if anyone's declined to do so then there's absolutely no reason to have lockdowns to protect them from their own decisions in January.
telegrap
What is interesting and increasingly promising is the fact that intensive care admissions are not rising in the way they did with previous waves. Omicron may spread more easily, but fewer covid patients are developing life-threatening illness than we were expecting. 8/12
There may be others.
a) It doesn't. Most people exceed 80. That is what average means.
b) Life expectancy of an 81 year old is about 90.
If and when we go into opposition we will get our party back on that and Tory members and by then likely Tory MPs too will push and force through support for an English parliament as the next stage
Talking of which, today's my last run of the year. If a meteorite does not hit me in the next couple of hours, and I don't crash my car on the way to the start, then I will have done one run every day this year. I know running doesn't float everyone's boat, but I tried to find things that kept my mood up. Therefore I'll have achieved something I'm proud of (even if it's a little nutty) despite the pandemic.
It's given me something to concentrate and obsess on, and it's certainly been difficult, including many early mornings, especially during home schooling. But the difficulty adds to the sense of achievement.
I've also encouraged the little 'un to do the same with a certain activity, and I think it's helped him.
I certainly don't subscribe to the 'lockdown equals no life' viewpoint.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/12/a-plurality-of-our-panellists-say-no-more-lockdowns-but-a-quarter-back-vaccine-passports-instead.html
That was a really stupid argument some tried to make, unless you're expecting the Police to round up and arrest anyone who doesn't go to get jabbed so the jab can be forced upon them, then how can you jab everyone?
Risk is one thing - that can be planned for and how a business makes money
But whether there is a Brexit deal or No Deal has a huge impact on returns and there is SFA they can do about it. So they sit on their hands for many major investments
… plus when you are talking about aggregate statistics like we were big business is very important…
Restrictions affect the whole population not just over 80s, there will therefore be no further restrictions on the vaccinated while we Tories remain in power.
The kind of something-must-be-done, cosmetic initiatives that have been brought in by S/W/NI, not so much.
Let's see where the case rates in the home nations are in about ten days' time. I think that there's a strong chance that the rest of the UK will be doing no better than England, i.e. there will be no evidence that additional restrictions have helped against the new variant at all. If we're really lucky then Omicron will have followed the South African pattern by that point - peaked and gone into decline - in which case England, having been hit hardest first, might even be doing better than S/W/NI by that point.
I know it's painful to contemplate the possibility that the Tory right could be proven to have been correct in this instance. If that does transpire to be the case then maybe applying the principle of stopped clocks might offer a mechanism for coping with the disappointment?
I can’t disclose too much for GDPR reasons but they are in the top handful of oldest people on the UK!
That said, we are approaching 60% with three vaccinations so we are getting there.
Like you, I don't currently see an argument for "lockdown" (a ludicrous catch-all word which means whatever you want it to mean). The question is whether the current "Plan B" restrictions can be relaxed back to "Plan A" in the next month or so - I suspect not. While nowhere near as alarming as this time last year, the numbers of hospitalisations are rising and that's the figure that worries me far more than case numbers.
However, having protected so many of the vulnerable, it's in my view very unlikely we'll approach the numbers of last year.
Thoughts turn to whether and when a fourth vaccination may be required in April or May - the efficacy of three vaccinations will inevitably decline over time but unless the virus dishes up a nasty new variant, I'm fairly sanguine about further vaccination until next autumn.
But lately you have to scroll through pages and pages of absolute tosh to find anything worth perusing.
Ah, my coat...
Just picked my GF up from a Covid infected ward though, so likely that we'll all come back absolutely riddled.
Horrendous weather as we head up the M90/A9.
NEW THREAD
1. Omicron is usually sort of like flu
2. Flu can sometimes kill thousands in a bad year.
3. We don't do anything to stop flu.
4. Therefore we should do nothing to stop Omicron.
Once you can assign value zero to what they say then it doesn't matter whether what they are saying is about you or not - its still worth zero.
Its my big positive takeaway from my 4 years on Thornaby Town Council. And proved to be a massive weapon when facing down his eminence the Mayor for Life because you could ask the question they don't want to answer, endure 10 minutes of mouth foaming rant, smile and drag the chair back to the unanswered question and invite him to try again. Used to drive him nuts because attacking opponents personally was all he had.
“Your granny is going to die soon anyway” may be accurate but it’s unlikely to convince many people
Some people extrapolate to assume 100% of people will get vaccinated, but regrettably we know that's not true.
Some people have had one dose or two doses then died of natural causes - they're never going to get another doses.
Others had one dose or two and maybe had an adverse reaction or didn't like the experience or simply no longer want to be vaccinated. See idiots like Farage saying they've had two doses but 'never again' as if we don't offer people flu jabs annually.
All that can ever be done is offer people jabs. Anyone who wanted to be jabbed by today could have gotten an appointment by today. So for anyone else now its a case of either waiting for them to become eligible (eg if a recent case means they're ineligible) or convincing the remaining dregs to come in.
Someone dying as a child or teenager etc drags down the average far more than an 85 year old dying drags it up. So for everyone who dies at 20, there have to be many more who die older than 81 to make the average become 81.
I remember long discussions with one of his peers about a potential investment in Algeria - the government changed the rules to say you needed local manufacturing and there was the opportunity to buy a 50% stake in a local company that Lazard was touting around. Ultimately concern was that if the government had changed the rules once they could do so again so they went for a local distribution / contract manufacturing approach instead
We know there is a fire. Peppa is running around shouting "fire"...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-89617-2
Looking at the abstract from the Nature article this was carried ou prior to the vaccine rollout in the UK ( November 2020) Given the effectiveness of vaccination amongst the primarily older patients that suffer from Hip Fractures I would suggest these original findings would need to be taken lightly.
Projected Week 52 Admissions: 7893 (down 2% - let's call that flat)
Projected Week 52 Deaths: 715 (up 20%)
Ventilated: 3.4%
Oxygenated: 15.1%
For @Andy_JS , based on hospital admissions we are approx 3-4 weeks behind SA but there are lots of metrics you could use to determine how far behind we are so treat that with loads of salt.
The big cofounder for knowing how far behind we are is that SA had very low Delta admissions (585 admissions in the week before Omicron took off) whereas we had loads.
The answer is "federalism". A new federal UK with a greatly reduced Westminster managing defence, the national economy, foreign relations and a few blanket standards. Everything else is devolved to the 4 nations who can largely self-govern.
If you want and English parliament can I ask you to go the whole hog and support federalism? Otherwise your shiny new parliament in Hartlepool will be hampered by the same non-written constitution and unworkable overlaps as we are stuck with now.
She died about 18 months ago, in it, some 5 years AFTER the 'developer' himself had died.
On the other hand, I don't run a bar or a nightclub, so I'm alright Jack, but then again, as far as I am aware neither does Bart the Pirate, who is advocating free love to steal a march on Covid fearties/ Remainers/ the left, and if that superspreads Covid, "to hell with oldies, they're gonna die anyway".
The usual rule is that option fees are a very small % of the sales value, for exactly that reason.
Thanks Carlotta, still just like cold and sore throat , still infectious so isolation till 5th Jan supposedly. Not getting any worse so think that will be the worst of it.