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A look at how you should price a bet – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    edited December 2021
    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?

    Quite possibly SF both North and south of the bordering a couple of years. Surely that would mean a border poll?
    Yepp.

    SF have led in every poll in NI for two years, and in last 15 Irish polls in a row.
    I really do think. For all the obsessing about Scotland, that this is the immediate issue coming down the road.
    A Sinn Féin First Minister will be a psychological blow to Unionism in NI but it doesn't matter much in the dysfunctional political arrangement of that place
    It wouldn't.
    But if you thought the actions of Sturgeon and Drakeford caused harrumphing...
  • Foxy said:

    I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?

    Quite possibly SF both North and south of the bordering a couple of years. Surely that would mean a border poll?
    Yepp.

    SF have led in every poll in NI for two years, and in last 15 Irish polls in a row.
    Yebbut that doesn't mean much in the Irish PR system, given that they are not very transfer-friendly and are regarded, unsurprisingly, as toxic by most of the other parties,
    https://irishelectionprojections.com/2021/12/21/december-2021-projections-update/

    The latest seat projection has SF at 63 with the FF-FG-Green government narrowly losing their majority. I'm not sure how this is calculated with assumed transfers etc.

    If Sinn Fein gets up to around just over 60 seats and doesn't completely cannibalise the Greens, SDs, PBP and Labour, I would have thought it would be difficult to exclude SF from government. FF and FG would have to work with the independents and possibly even Labour as well to retain a majority.

    Also isn't Mary Lou Macdonald Ireland still most popular politician?
  • RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    dixiedean said:

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
    relative to the population they have much fewer cases than us....and this in a more unvaccinated population
    Their positivity and death rates are much higher than ours though.

    So why not share some other antivaxx memes.
    deaths in us are similar to uk relative to population again in a more unvaccinated population
    No, they aren’t. UK deaths are just over a hundred a day. US 1,500.
    Well they have 5* our pop.
    Yep, but 15x the deaths.
    no only recently is death rate higher overall they have similar death rate to us in a much more unvaccinated population
    You just said that you are taking about total deaths, over the entire pandemic. So what has that got to do with vaccination status?

    Maybe your desperate to prove a point about vaccines not working or something?
    mmm i just look at data...maybe you are the one getting a teeny bit obsessed with this
    You just look at data and make comments that don’t make sense. What have deaths before the introduction of the vaccines got to do with the vaccines?
    we got hit with the kent variant kast winter which killed off many of our vulnerable...the US is playing catchup now but even so has not got a higher death rate overall
  • Ouch!!!!



    Stewart Wood @StewartWood

    Hospital beds per 1000 people (most recent World Bank data)

    -Germany: 8.0
    -France: 6.0
    -Italy: 3.2
    -UK: 2.5

    ICU-CCB beds per 100,000 people
    -Germany: 38.7
    -France: 11.6
    -Italy: 12.5
    -UK: 6.6



    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1

    Are we prepared to consider learning from other European countries that don't use the NHS model?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    After NI has voted to join the south maybe Scotland could unite with Ireland to form a Federal Celtic Republic, thus side-stepping the difficulty of how to rejoin the EU?

    Loads would want to break away to the Federal Rangers Monarchy?
    Not more than 48% shirley?

    And as we know 48% is a minority you can just ignore.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,138

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    dixiedean said:

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
    relative to the population they have much fewer cases than us....and this in a more unvaccinated population
    Their positivity and death rates are much higher than ours though.

    So why not share some other antivaxx memes.
    deaths in us are similar to uk relative to population again in a more unvaccinated population
    No, they aren’t. UK deaths are just over a hundred a day. US 1,500.
    Well they have 5* our pop.
    Yep, but 15x the deaths.
    no only recently is death rate higher overall they have similar death rate to us in a much more unvaccinated population
    US share of population vaccinated = 73.1%; UK share of population vaccinated = 75.8%. So not much difference there.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    UK doing much better recently on boosters but lo and behold that coincides with the UK doing much better recently on deaths. What a coincidence, eh?
    They also have much less of an age-stratified vaccination take up. The UK has, fortuitously or by design, ended up with very high rates among the old and infirm and comparatively low rates in the young. The US pattern seems instead to be - and this is what a bonkers country it is - based largely on political party alignment.
  • londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    dixiedean said:

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
    relative to the population they have much fewer cases than us....and this in a more unvaccinated population
    Their positivity and death rates are much higher than ours though.

    So why not share some other antivaxx memes.
    deaths in us are similar to uk relative to population again in a more unvaccinated population
    No, they aren’t. UK deaths are just over a hundred a day. US 1,500.
    Well they have 5* our pop.
    Yep, but 15x the deaths.
    no only recently is death rate higher overall they have similar death rate to us in a much more unvaccinated population
    You just said that you are taking about total deaths, over the entire pandemic. So what has that got to do with vaccination status?

    Maybe your desperate to prove a point about vaccines not working or something?
    mmm i just look at data...maybe you are the one getting a teeny bit obsessed with this
    I don't know what fake data you're looking at from Russianantivaxxtrollfarm.net but the data I'm seeing paints a very different picture.

    image

    USA 317 excess deaths per 100k
    Britain 217 excess deaths per 100k.

    America has literally 100 extra excess deaths per 100k population than Britain and look at the shape of the graph to see when that fell.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    dixiedean said:

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
    relative to the population they have much fewer cases than us....and this in a more unvaccinated population
    Their positivity and death rates are much higher than ours though.

    So why not share some other antivaxx memes.
    deaths in us are similar to uk relative to population again in a more unvaccinated population
    No, they aren’t. UK deaths are just over a hundred a day. US 1,500.
    Well they have 5* our pop.
    Yep, but 15x the deaths.
    no only recently is death rate higher overall they have similar death rate to us in a much more unvaccinated population
    You just said that you are taking about total deaths, over the entire pandemic. So what has that got to do with vaccination status?

    Maybe your desperate to prove a point about vaccines not working or something?
    mmm i just look at data...maybe you are the one getting a teeny bit obsessed with this
    Don't take this the wrong way, but you are extremely bad at looking at data.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    Endillion said:

    FF43 said:

    pigeon said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    It is remarkable, given both that the problems identified with the Union are legion and that hardly anyone in Scotland seems to have anything good to say about the British Government, that no stable majority can be found in Scottish public opinion for dissolution. Somewhere in the ballpark of half the population doesn't want to go - and not even the deaths of large numbers of elderly Unionists since 2014, and the addition to the electoral roll of large numbers of independence-leaning youth in their place, have swung the argument decisively.

    Why is that?
    It's a fair point but I would turn it round and ask why no-one can articulate what the Union is for and why we should have it - especially no-one in England seems able to articulate that. Scots are divided but they do have ideas on what they want. English and Scottish reasons for having a union don't necessarily need to align, but the arrangement has to work for both parties or it's over.

    I can see a range of possible English views on their union with Scotland (apologies to Wales and Northern Ireland for their exclusion):

    1. We're English and have zero interest in Scotland.
    2. We're going to do what we want. Scotland will do what it's told.
    3. We're going to do what we want. Scotland is welcome to come along or leave.
    4. We will mostly do what we want. Within that constraint Scotland can mostly do what it wants in certain areas. There may be a discussion about Scottish decisions that impact England.

    No-one in England is giving this much thought. Historically I would say the Union has operating on 4, now moving to a 2 under the Johnson government.
    I'm 3) in theory, and closer to 4) in practice. However, the problem you've missed is what happens if Scotland decides to leave the Union - my attitude there is very much 2). In particular, the ridiculous ideas about sharing the Bank of England, and the UK Treasury paying pensions on an ongoing basis, are non-starters.

    As a committer EU Remainer, I'm sure you can appreciate why this is an issue.
    I agree. There has been a lack of realism amongst some nationalists that independence doesn't mean a border with England. Absolutely it does mean a hard border.

    But I don't think an absence of a border is enough of a reason for a Union. Certainly not enough from an English perspective.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,874

    Ouch!!!!



    Stewart Wood @StewartWood

    Hospital beds per 1000 people (most recent World Bank data)

    -Germany: 8.0
    -France: 6.0
    -Italy: 3.2
    -UK: 2.5

    ICU-CCB beds per 100,000 people
    -Germany: 38.7
    -France: 11.6
    -Italy: 12.5
    -UK: 6.6



    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1

    Are we prepared to consider learning from other European countries that don't use the NHS model?

    This was discussed a bit earlier this week. We have to be careful that we are not comparing apples with oranges. Not every nation counts ICU beds the same way.
    That said, I think we do need to look at how we provide for surge care etc in the health service.
  • londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    dixiedean said:

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
    relative to the population they have much fewer cases than us....and this in a more unvaccinated population
    Their positivity and death rates are much higher than ours though.

    So why not share some other antivaxx memes.
    deaths in us are similar to uk relative to population again in a more unvaccinated population
    No, they aren’t. UK deaths are just over a hundred a day. US 1,500.
    Well they have 5* our pop.
    Yep, but 15x the deaths.
    no only recently is death rate higher overall they have similar death rate to us in a much more unvaccinated population
    You just said that you are taking about total deaths, over the entire pandemic. So what has that got to do with vaccination status?

    Maybe your desperate to prove a point about vaccines not working or something?
    mmm i just look at data...maybe you are the one getting a teeny bit obsessed with this
    You just look at data and make comments that don’t make sense. What have deaths before the introduction of the vaccines got to do with the vaccines?
    we got hit with the kent variant kast winter which killed off many of our vulnerable...the US is playing catchup now but even so has not got a higher death rate overall
    2,533 total US deaths per million, vs our 2,169 (source, worldometers)
  • TimS said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    dixiedean said:

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
    relative to the population they have much fewer cases than us....and this in a more unvaccinated population
    Their positivity and death rates are much higher than ours though.

    So why not share some other antivaxx memes.
    deaths in us are similar to uk relative to population again in a more unvaccinated population
    No, they aren’t. UK deaths are just over a hundred a day. US 1,500.
    Well they have 5* our pop.
    Yep, but 15x the deaths.
    no only recently is death rate higher overall they have similar death rate to us in a much more unvaccinated population
    US share of population vaccinated = 73.1%; UK share of population vaccinated = 75.8%. So not much difference there.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    UK doing much better recently on boosters but lo and behold that coincides with the UK doing much better recently on deaths. What a coincidence, eh?
    They also have much less of an age-stratified vaccination take up. The UK has, fortuitously or by design, ended up with very high rates among the old and infirm and comparatively low rates in the young. The US pattern seems instead to be - and this is what a bonkers country it is - based largely on political party alignment.
    i think the antivaxxers in the us are worried about the graphene in the jabs
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    .

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
    I am quite happy for you to have your English National Parliament. But wouldn't regional ones be less cumbersome?
    Why should England be broken up into regions? Ontario for example is also far bigger than most other Canadian provinces but still has its own parliament.

    It seems the only time England is allowed to exist is on the sports field (excluding the Olympics)
    In Canada, there is a parliament for Ontario as well as an overall parliament at Ottawa.

    We could have an English National Parliament in the House of Lords Chamber and a UK parliament in the House of Commons.

    :smiley:
    The Ontario Parliament is in the Capital.
    Toronto.
    Should Winchester or York be the English capital
    Winchester.
    Traditional heart of Wessex, not sure it was ever capital of England?
    Until William, I believe it was.
    Even after William it was the location of the Royal Treasury for some time, so the standard procedure after the death of a monarch would be for the next in line to hotfoot it to Winchester to secure the Treasury, and then rush off to London to be crowned.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    dixiedean said:

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
    relative to the population they have much fewer cases than us....and this in a more unvaccinated population
    Their positivity and death rates are much higher than ours though.

    So why not share some other antivaxx memes.
    deaths in us are similar to uk relative to population again in a more unvaccinated population
    No, they aren’t. UK deaths are just over a hundred a day. US 1,500.
    Well they have 5* our pop.
    Yep, but 15x the deaths.
    no only recently is death rate higher overall they have similar death rate to us in a much more unvaccinated population
    You just said that you are taking about total deaths, over the entire pandemic. So what has that got to do with vaccination status?

    Maybe your desperate to prove a point about vaccines not working or something?
    mmm i just look at data...maybe you are the one getting a teeny bit obsessed with this
    You just look at data and make comments that don’t make sense. What have deaths before the introduction of the vaccines got to do with the vaccines?
    we got hit with the kent variant kast winter which killed off many of our vulnerable...the US is playing catchup now but even so has not got a higher death rate overall
    Those almost all occurred before the vaccination. I’m not sure what point you are trying to make. The current vaccination rate has almost no bearing on the total death rate because of how many happened before vaccination.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,138

    Ouch!!!!



    Stewart Wood @StewartWood

    Hospital beds per 1000 people (most recent World Bank data)

    -Germany: 8.0
    -France: 6.0
    -Italy: 3.2
    -UK: 2.5

    ICU-CCB beds per 100,000 people
    -Germany: 38.7
    -France: 11.6
    -Italy: 12.5
    -UK: 6.6



    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1

    Are we prepared to consider learning from other European countries that don't use the NHS model?

    Some interesting commentary on this yesterday. There are other countries (in Scandinavia for example) with similar bed ratios to us.

    Germany has a lot of built in duplicative provision, because of its federal structure.

    France always struck me as having the best combination of quality and efficiency in its public healthcare.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    dixiedean said:

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
    relative to the population they have much fewer cases than us....and this in a more unvaccinated population
    Their positivity and death rates are much higher than ours though.

    So why not share some other antivaxx memes.
    deaths in us are similar to uk relative to population again in a more unvaccinated population
    No, they aren’t. UK deaths are just over a hundred a day. US 1,500.
    Well they have 5* our pop.
    Yep, but 15x the deaths.
    no only recently is death rate higher overall they have similar death rate to us in a much more unvaccinated population
    You just said that you are taking about total deaths, over the entire pandemic. So what has that got to do with vaccination status?

    Maybe your desperate to prove a point about vaccines not working or something?
    mmm i just look at data...maybe you are the one getting a teeny bit obsessed with this
    You just look at data and make comments that don’t make sense. What have deaths before the introduction of the vaccines got to do with the vaccines?
    we got hit with the kent variant kast winter which killed off many of our vulnerable...the US is playing catchup now but even so has not got a higher death rate overall
    Er, wrong again:

    US deaths per million 2,533
    UK deaths per million 2,169

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Please at least try to check your facts and provide evidence before posting.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    edited December 2021

    Foxy said:

    I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?

    Quite possibly SF both North and south of the bordering a couple of years. Surely that would mean a border poll?
    Yepp.

    SF have led in every poll in NI for two years, and in last 15 Irish polls in a row.
    Yebbut that doesn't mean much in the Irish PR system, given that they are not very transfer-friendly and are regarded, unsurprisingly, as toxic by most of the other parties,
    https://irishelectionprojections.com/2021/12/21/december-2021-projections-update/

    The latest seat projection has SF at 63 with the FF-FG-Green government narrowly losing their majority. I'm not sure how this is calculated with assumed transfers etc.

    If Sinn Fein gets up to around just over 60 seats and doesn't completely cannibalise the Greens, SDs, PBP and Labour, I would have thought it would be difficult to exclude SF from government. FF and FG would have to work with the independents and possibly even Labour as well to retain a majority.

    Also isn't Mary Lou Macdonald Ireland still most popular politician?
    She would at least get first dibs.
    SF isn't toxic in the Republic either. FG and FF both came out of the IRA. It isn't Uber shocking in the way it is here. And also for the obvious reason that they lead the polls comfortably.
    They are increasingly the Party of the young. The atheist and agnostic. Of the poor. And the ones who talk about housing, low pay and inequality.
    I'd put Macdonald as favourite for next Taoiseach.
  • londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    dixiedean said:

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
    relative to the population they have much fewer cases than us....and this in a more unvaccinated population
    Their positivity and death rates are much higher than ours though.

    So why not share some other antivaxx memes.
    deaths in us are similar to uk relative to population again in a more unvaccinated population
    No, they aren’t. UK deaths are just over a hundred a day. US 1,500.
    Well they have 5* our pop.
    Yep, but 15x the deaths.
    no only recently is death rate higher overall they have similar death rate to us in a much more unvaccinated population
    You just said that you are taking about total deaths, over the entire pandemic. So what has that got to do with vaccination status?

    Maybe your desperate to prove a point about vaccines not working or something?
    mmm i just look at data...maybe you are the one getting a teeny bit obsessed with this
    You just look at data and make comments that don’t make sense. What have deaths before the introduction of the vaccines got to do with the vaccines?
    we got hit with the kent variant kast winter which killed off many of our vulnerable...the US is playing catchup now but even so has not got a higher death rate overall
    Er, wrong again:

    US deaths per million 2,533
    UK deaths per million 2,169

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Please at least try to check your facts and provide evidence before posting.
    Those figures massively underestimate US death rates too, as the Economist excess death figures show. Many states have allegedly been putting political pressure to get Covid deaths recorded as non-Covid deaths for political reasons.

    Excess deaths in the USA have now surpassed one million fatalities, or well over 3100 per million.
  • It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.
  • It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.

    Hi CHB, how are you? :)

    If by lockdown you mean end all restrictions and abolish Covid isolation requirements for people who've been infected then I completely agree with you. Otherwise, I hope you're having a good evening.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    Well done to whoever set the @londonpubman Bot going this evening - it's provided great entertainment as ever!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.

    Didn’t you say this exact same thing earlier today?
  • TimS said:

    Ouch!!!!



    Stewart Wood @StewartWood

    Hospital beds per 1000 people (most recent World Bank data)

    -Germany: 8.0
    -France: 6.0
    -Italy: 3.2
    -UK: 2.5

    ICU-CCB beds per 100,000 people
    -Germany: 38.7
    -France: 11.6
    -Italy: 12.5
    -UK: 6.6



    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1

    Are we prepared to consider learning from other European countries that don't use the NHS model?

    Some interesting commentary on this yesterday. There are other countries (in Scandinavia for example) with similar bed ratios to us.

    Germany has a lot of built in duplicative provision, because of its federal structure.

    France always struck me as having the best combination of quality and efficiency in its public healthcare.
    In a plague year then duplicated beds sounds like a good situation to be in.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Ouch!!!!



    Stewart Wood @StewartWood

    Hospital beds per 1000 people (most recent World Bank data)

    -Germany: 8.0
    -France: 6.0
    -Italy: 3.2
    -UK: 2.5

    ICU-CCB beds per 100,000 people
    -Germany: 38.7
    -France: 11.6
    -Italy: 12.5
    -UK: 6.6



    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1

    Are we prepared to consider learning from other European countries that don't use the NHS model?

    Are we prepared to spend a lot more money on healthcare?

    Also the German figure is bunkum for the purposes of comparison, that bed figure is not staffed like an NHS ICU bed.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,087
    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    dixiedean said:

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
    relative to the population they have much fewer cases than us....and this in a more unvaccinated population
    Their positivity and death rates are much higher than ours though.

    So why not share some other antivaxx memes.
    deaths in us are similar to uk relative to population again in a more unvaccinated population
    No, they aren’t. UK deaths are just over a hundred a day. US 1,500.
    Well they have 5* our pop.
    Yep, but 15x the deaths.
    no only recently is death rate higher overall they have similar death rate to us in a much more unvaccinated population
    You just said that you are taking about total deaths, over the entire pandemic. So what has that got to do with vaccination status?

    Maybe your desperate to prove a point about vaccines not working or something?
    mmm i just look at data...maybe you are the one getting a teeny bit obsessed with this
    You just look at data and make comments that don’t make sense. What have deaths before the introduction of the vaccines got to do with the vaccines?
    we got hit with the kent variant kast winter which killed off many of our vulnerable...the US is playing catchup now but even so has not got a higher death rate overall
    This is demonstrably false.

    The cumulative totals of Covid deaths per capita, since the start of the pandemic, in the US and UK are as follows:

    United States: 2,472 per million
    United Kingdom: 2,173 per million

    source: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

    Britain's performance on this metric isn't exactly stellar (a bit worse than the EU average, Spain and France; a bit better than Poland, Italy and Belgium) but the American cumulative death rate overtook the UK's in September and has continued to accelerate away since.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    TimS said:

    Ouch!!!!



    Stewart Wood @StewartWood

    Hospital beds per 1000 people (most recent World Bank data)

    -Germany: 8.0
    -France: 6.0
    -Italy: 3.2
    -UK: 2.5

    ICU-CCB beds per 100,000 people
    -Germany: 38.7
    -France: 11.6
    -Italy: 12.5
    -UK: 6.6



    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1

    Are we prepared to consider learning from other European countries that don't use the NHS model?

    Some interesting commentary on this yesterday. There are other countries (in Scandinavia for example) with similar bed ratios to us.

    Germany has a lot of built in duplicative provision, because of its federal structure.

    France always struck me as having the best combination of quality and efficiency in its public healthcare.
    When my daughter (then aged 14 months) got hit by a respiratory illness, I was incredibly impressed by their health service.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,780
    pigeon said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    dixiedean said:

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
    relative to the population they have much fewer cases than us....and this in a more unvaccinated population
    Their positivity and death rates are much higher than ours though.

    So why not share some other antivaxx memes.
    deaths in us are similar to uk relative to population again in a more unvaccinated population
    No, they aren’t. UK deaths are just over a hundred a day. US 1,500.
    Well they have 5* our pop.
    Yep, but 15x the deaths.
    no only recently is death rate higher overall they have similar death rate to us in a much more unvaccinated population
    You just said that you are taking about total deaths, over the entire pandemic. So what has that got to do with vaccination status?

    Maybe your desperate to prove a point about vaccines not working or something?
    mmm i just look at data...maybe you are the one getting a teeny bit obsessed with this
    You just look at data and make comments that don’t make sense. What have deaths before the introduction of the vaccines got to do with the vaccines?
    we got hit with the kent variant kast winter which killed off many of our vulnerable...the US is playing catchup now but even so has not got a higher death rate overall
    This is demonstrably false.

    The cumulative totals of Covid deaths per capita, since the start of the pandemic, in the US and UK are as follows:

    United States: 2,472 per million
    United Kingdom: 2,173 per million

    source: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

    Britain's performance on this metric isn't exactly stellar (a bit worse than the EU average, Spain and France; a bit better than Poland, Italy and Belgium) but the American cumulative death rate overtook the UK's in September and has continued to accelerate away since.
    Use the Economist's excess death data
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    dixiedean said:

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
    relative to the population they have much fewer cases than us....and this in a more unvaccinated population
    Their positivity and death rates are much higher than ours though.

    So why not share some other antivaxx memes.
    deaths in us are similar to uk relative to population again in a more unvaccinated population
    No, they aren’t. UK deaths are just over a hundred a day. US 1,500.
    Well they have 5* our pop.
    Yep, but 15x the deaths.
    no only recently is death rate higher overall they have similar death rate to us in a much more unvaccinated population
    You just said that you are taking about total deaths, over the entire pandemic. So what has that got to do with vaccination status?

    Maybe your desperate to prove a point about vaccines not working or something?
    mmm i just look at data...maybe you are the one getting a teeny bit obsessed with this
    You just look at data and make comments that don’t make sense. What have deaths before the introduction of the vaccines got to do with the vaccines?
    we got hit with the kent variant kast winter which killed off many of our vulnerable...the US is playing catchup now but even so has not got a higher death rate overall
    Er, wrong again:

    US deaths per million 2,533
    UK deaths per million 2,169

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Please at least try to check your facts and provide evidence before posting.
    Those figures massively underestimate US death rates too, as the Economist excess death figures show. Many states have allegedly been putting political pressure to get Covid deaths recorded as non-Covid deaths for political reasons.

    Excess deaths in the USA have now surpassed one million fatalities, or well over 3100 per million.
    Yes agreed.

    What proportion of that 1 million were Republicans I wonder and how far does this have to go to make a real electoral difference?
  • @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.
  • TimS said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    dixiedean said:

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
    relative to the population they have much fewer cases than us....and this in a more unvaccinated population
    Their positivity and death rates are much higher than ours though.

    So why not share some other antivaxx memes.
    deaths in us are similar to uk relative to population again in a more unvaccinated population
    No, they aren’t. UK deaths are just over a hundred a day. US 1,500.
    Well they have 5* our pop.
    Yep, but 15x the deaths.
    no only recently is death rate higher overall they have similar death rate to us in a much more unvaccinated population
    US share of population vaccinated = 73.1%; UK share of population vaccinated = 75.8%. So not much difference there.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    UK doing much better recently on boosters but lo and behold that coincides with the UK doing much better recently on deaths. What a coincidence, eh?
    They also have much less of an age-stratified vaccination take up. The UK has, fortuitously or by design, ended up with very high rates among the old and infirm and comparatively low rates in the young. The US pattern seems instead to be - and this is what a bonkers country it is - based largely on political party alignment.
    It wouldn't surprise me if the reason that Trump has started vocally touting vaccines despite getting booed for it is he's realised that partisan vaccination rates could mean he loses the next election. If his voters die because they're unvaccinated, they can't vote.

    This isn't 1960 Chicago, Illinois anymore.
  • RobD said:

    It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.

    Didn’t you say this exact same thing earlier today?
    And yesterday
  • londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    dixiedean said:

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
    relative to the population they have much fewer cases than us....and this in a more unvaccinated population
    Their positivity and death rates are much higher than ours though.

    So why not share some other antivaxx memes.
    deaths in us are similar to uk relative to population again in a more unvaccinated population
    No, they aren’t. UK deaths are just over a hundred a day. US 1,500.
    Well they have 5* our pop.
    Yep, but 15x the deaths.
    no only recently is death rate higher overall they have similar death rate to us in a much more unvaccinated population
    You just said that you are taking about total deaths, over the entire pandemic. So what has that got to do with vaccination status?

    Maybe your desperate to prove a point about vaccines not working or something?
    mmm i just look at data...maybe you are the one getting a teeny bit obsessed with this
    You just look at data and make comments that don’t make sense. What have deaths before the introduction of the vaccines got to do with the vaccines?
    we got hit with the kent variant kast winter which killed off many of our vulnerable...the US is playing catchup now but even so has not got a higher death rate overall
    Er, wrong again:

    US deaths per million 2,533
    UK deaths per million 2,169

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Please at least try to check your facts and provide evidence before posting.
    given different methods of recording deaths we can call that basically equal...stop splitting hairs
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.

    lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    dixiedean said:

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
    relative to the population they have much fewer cases than us....and this in a more unvaccinated population
    Their positivity and death rates are much higher than ours though.

    So why not share some other antivaxx memes.
    deaths in us are similar to uk relative to population again in a more unvaccinated population
    No, they aren’t. UK deaths are just over a hundred a day. US 1,500.
    Well they have 5* our pop.
    Yep, but 15x the deaths.
    no only recently is death rate higher overall they have similar death rate to us in a much more unvaccinated population
    You just said that you are taking about total deaths, over the entire pandemic. So what has that got to do with vaccination status?

    Maybe your desperate to prove a point about vaccines not working or something?
    mmm i just look at data...maybe you are the one getting a teeny bit obsessed with this
    You just look at data and make comments that don’t make sense. What have deaths before the introduction of the vaccines got to do with the vaccines?
    we got hit with the kent variant kast winter which killed off many of our vulnerable...the US is playing catchup now but even so has not got a higher death rate overall
    Er, wrong again:

    US deaths per million 2,533
    UK deaths per million 2,169

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Please at least try to check your facts and provide evidence before posting.
    given different methods of recording deaths we can call that basically equal...stop splitting hairs
    No, it’s been pointed out this is actually an underestimate for the US figure.
  • It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.

    lots of vested interests seemingly want to let it rip....oh well
  • Alistair said:

    Ouch!!!!



    Stewart Wood @StewartWood

    Hospital beds per 1000 people (most recent World Bank data)

    -Germany: 8.0
    -France: 6.0
    -Italy: 3.2
    -UK: 2.5

    ICU-CCB beds per 100,000 people
    -Germany: 38.7
    -France: 11.6
    -Italy: 12.5
    -UK: 6.6



    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1

    Are we prepared to consider learning from other European countries that don't use the NHS model?

    Are we prepared to spend a lot more money on healthcare?

    Also the German figure is bunkum for the purposes of comparison, that bed figure is not staffed like an NHS ICU bed.
    ONS says we are spending ≈ 12% of GDP on health

    Germany is 11.7% according to EU stats.

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Healthcare_expenditure_statistics

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/bulletins/healthcareexpenditureukhealthaccountsprovisionalestimates/2020

  • RobD said:

    @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.

    lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
    Indeed and even Starmer is not calling for lockdown
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?

    Quite possibly SF both North and south of the bordering a couple of years. Surely that would mean a border poll?
    Yepp.

    SF have led in every poll in NI for two years, and in last 15 Irish polls in a row.
    Yebbut that doesn't mean much in the Irish PR system, given that they are not very transfer-friendly and are regarded, unsurprisingly, as toxic by most of the other parties,
    https://irishelectionprojections.com/2021/12/21/december-2021-projections-update/

    The latest seat projection has SF at 63 with the FF-FG-Green government narrowly losing their majority. I'm not sure how this is calculated with assumed transfers etc.

    If Sinn Fein gets up to around just over 60 seats and doesn't completely cannibalise the Greens, SDs, PBP and Labour, I would have thought it would be difficult to exclude SF from government. FF and FG would have to work with the independents and possibly even Labour as well to retain a majority.

    Also isn't Mary Lou Macdonald Ireland still most popular politician?
    She would at least get first dibs.
    SF isn't toxic in the Republic either. FG and FF both came out of the IRA. It isn't Uber shocking in the way it is here. And also for the obvious reason that they lead the polls comfortably.
    They are increasingly the Party of the young. The atheist and agnostic. Of the poor. And the ones who talk about housing, low pay and inequality.
    I'd put Macdonald as favourite for next Taoiseach.
    And if she does her high tax, high spend agenda would see an exodus of corporations from Dublin. It would undo much of the economic Thatcherism FG and FF have pursued in Ireland to turn it from an economic backwater in the 1970s to a top 10 nation by gdp per capita today.

    Hence so many middle class Irish voters are terrified of SF
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,138
    Alistair said:

    Ouch!!!!



    Stewart Wood @StewartWood

    Hospital beds per 1000 people (most recent World Bank data)

    -Germany: 8.0
    -France: 6.0
    -Italy: 3.2
    -UK: 2.5

    ICU-CCB beds per 100,000 people
    -Germany: 38.7
    -France: 11.6
    -Italy: 12.5
    -UK: 6.6



    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1

    Are we prepared to consider learning from other European countries that don't use the NHS model?

    Are we prepared to spend a lot more money on healthcare?

    Also the German figure is bunkum for the purposes of comparison, that bed figure is not staffed like an NHS ICU bed.
    Exactly right. A “bed” in health service terms is really about the staff and infrastructure around the patient.

    That said, health and social care are not sufficiently funded and this ends up creating the sort of long term problems that come from false economies. We need to spend a higher proportion of GDP on public services, and we need to get that from tax. But first and foremost we need GDP growth to fund the tax which funds services. Which means we also need to spend and invest way more in education and skills. And we need to get back into the European single market pronto. Enough with the silly sovereignty experiment. It doesn’t pay the bills.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    TimS said:

    londoneye said:

    Didn't get the memo:

    THE TIMES: No need for more Covid curbs, say NHS chiefs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1476686549966364676?s=20

    mmm i see more let it rip merchants....ok
    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp
    ·
    4h
    The usual people are out there saying all will be fine soon - we just have to let people get infected and it will be done. Just as they did at previous waves.
    Except that’s not what “the usual people” (by which I assume she means the like of Francois Balloux or Andrew Lillico) are saying. By and large the message is that this is endemic now, it will never go away, and those in favour of restrictions aren’t articulating what their end game is.

    She and the other public health authoritarians need to be honest about what their long term alternative is. If it’s to wait for more anti viral treatments then find, say so. If it’s that we should live with permanent restrictions then fine (we’ll, not fine), say so. Some are now saying exactly this.

    In reality the “usual people” is increasingly the British public at large, and not just the young.
    I think some of them really do want restrictions to go on for a long time yet.
  • RobD said:

    @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.

    lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
    Indeed and even Starmer is not calling for lockdown
    Oh God, that probably means it is time for an urgent lockdown :smiley:
  • Well I'm afraid Starmer is wrong. It is time to lockdown, the models I am afraid are proving correct and we must protect lives going forward.
  • It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.

    Nope. If the cabinet gives in now then we will be locked down every winter for years to come.

    fair enough as long as you are prepared to accept peoples grannies will die as a result of that decision
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.

    Hi CHB, how are you? :)

    If by lockdown you mean end all restrictions and abolish Covid isolation requirements for people who've been infected then I completely agree with you. Otherwise, I hope you're having a good evening.
    Just when I thought CHB was being ludicrous.
  • RobD said:

    @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.

    lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
    Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,138
    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    Ouch!!!!



    Stewart Wood @StewartWood

    Hospital beds per 1000 people (most recent World Bank data)

    -Germany: 8.0
    -France: 6.0
    -Italy: 3.2
    -UK: 2.5

    ICU-CCB beds per 100,000 people
    -Germany: 38.7
    -France: 11.6
    -Italy: 12.5
    -UK: 6.6



    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1

    Are we prepared to consider learning from other European countries that don't use the NHS model?

    Some interesting commentary on this yesterday. There are other countries (in Scandinavia for example) with similar bed ratios to us.

    Germany has a lot of built in duplicative provision, because of its federal structure.

    France always struck me as having the best combination of quality and efficiency in its public healthcare.
    When my daughter (then aged 14 months) got hit by a respiratory illness, I was incredibly impressed by their health service.
    We had a car crash in Lyon when my wife was pregnant. The experience of the health service was, frankly, incredible. The speed.

    The one thing that was extremely slow and frustrating was the paperwork afterwards to ensure reimbursement. Something we don’t get with the NHS. But I’d rather wait 3 hours for a form to fill in after treatment than 4 hours to be treated in the first place.
  • @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.

    Which numbers tell you we must lockdown?

    What difference will it make now xmas has gone ahead with mass social and family mixing?
  • Look if you don't agree with a lockdown fine but don't be dishonest. I've not yet called for a lockdown. I am afraid the numbers are not looking good.

    I still hope I am proved to be wrong. I have my fingers crossed for the optimistic folks.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.

    lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
    Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
    Will you be calling for it each day (or perhaps twice a day just to make sure everyone sees it) going forward?

    And the implication of your earlier post is that you made the first call before studying the data. A reflex perhaps?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    londoneye said:

    It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.

    Nope. If the cabinet gives in now then we will be locked down every winter for years to come.

    fair enough as long as you are prepared to accept peoples grannies will die as a result of that decision
    If they are over 80 peoples Grannies will die anyway sadly, Covid or no Covid.

    For the double vaccinated plus boosted under 80s, death rates from Covid are near zero
  • TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    Ouch!!!!



    Stewart Wood @StewartWood

    Hospital beds per 1000 people (most recent World Bank data)

    -Germany: 8.0
    -France: 6.0
    -Italy: 3.2
    -UK: 2.5

    ICU-CCB beds per 100,000 people
    -Germany: 38.7
    -France: 11.6
    -Italy: 12.5
    -UK: 6.6



    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1

    Are we prepared to consider learning from other European countries that don't use the NHS model?

    Some interesting commentary on this yesterday. There are other countries (in Scandinavia for example) with similar bed ratios to us.

    Germany has a lot of built in duplicative provision, because of its federal structure.

    France always struck me as having the best combination of quality and efficiency in its public healthcare.
    When my daughter (then aged 14 months) got hit by a respiratory illness, I was incredibly impressed by their health service.
    We had a car crash in Lyon when my wife was pregnant. The experience of the health service was, frankly, incredible. The speed.

    The one thing that was extremely slow and frustrating was the paperwork afterwards to ensure reimbursement. Something we don’t get with the NHS. But I’d rather wait 3 hours for a form to fill in after treatment than 4 hours to be treated in the first place.
    Like Nixon going to China, only the Labour party can implement fundamental change of the NHS model.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    Alistair said:

    Ouch!!!!



    Stewart Wood @StewartWood

    Hospital beds per 1000 people (most recent World Bank data)

    -Germany: 8.0
    -France: 6.0
    -Italy: 3.2
    -UK: 2.5

    ICU-CCB beds per 100,000 people
    -Germany: 38.7
    -France: 11.6
    -Italy: 12.5
    -UK: 6.6



    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1

    Are we prepared to consider learning from other European countries that don't use the NHS model?

    Are we prepared to spend a lot more money on healthcare?

    Also the German figure is bunkum for the purposes of comparison, that bed figure is not staffed like an NHS ICU bed.
    ONS says we are spending ≈ 12% of GDP on health

    Germany is 11.7% according to EU stats.

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Healthcare_expenditure_statistics

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/bulletins/healthcareexpenditureukhealthaccountsprovisionalestimates/2020

    The World Bank does like-for-likes:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=true
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    londoneye said:

    It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.

    Nope. If the cabinet gives in now then we will be locked down every winter for years to come.

    fair enough as long as you are prepared to accept peoples grannies will die as a result of that decision
    If they are over 80 peoples Grannies will die anyway sadly, Covid or no Covid.

    For the double vaccinated plus boosted under 80s, death rates from Covid are near zero
    HMQ is 95, just so you know. Life doesn't end at 80.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?

    Quite possibly SF both North and south of the bordering a couple of years. Surely that would mean a border poll?
    Yepp.

    SF have led in every poll in NI for two years, and in last 15 Irish polls in a row.
    Yebbut that doesn't mean much in the Irish PR system, given that they are not very transfer-friendly and are regarded, unsurprisingly, as toxic by most of the other parties,
    https://irishelectionprojections.com/2021/12/21/december-2021-projections-update/

    The latest seat projection has SF at 63 with the FF-FG-Green government narrowly losing their majority. I'm not sure how this is calculated with assumed transfers etc.

    If Sinn Fein gets up to around just over 60 seats and doesn't completely cannibalise the Greens, SDs, PBP and Labour, I would have thought it would be difficult to exclude SF from government. FF and FG would have to work with the independents and possibly even Labour as well to retain a majority.

    Also isn't Mary Lou Macdonald Ireland still most popular politician?
    She would at least get first dibs.
    SF isn't toxic in the Republic either. FG and FF both came out of the IRA. It isn't Uber shocking in the way it is here. And also for the obvious reason that they lead the polls comfortably.
    They are increasingly the Party of the young. The atheist and agnostic. Of the poor. And the ones who talk about housing, low pay and inequality.
    I'd put Macdonald as favourite for next Taoiseach.
    And if she does her high tax, high spend agenda would see an exodus of corporations from Dublin. It would undo much of the economic Thatcherism FG and FF have pursued in Ireland to turn it from an economic backwater in the 1970s to a top 10 nation by gdp per capita today.

    Hence so many middle class Irish voters are terrified of SF
    That sounds like the stunningly successful Tory election campaign of '97.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,865
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?

    Quite possibly SF both North and south of the bordering a couple of years. Surely that would mean a border poll?
    Yepp.

    SF have led in every poll in NI for two years, and in last 15 Irish polls in a row.
    Yebbut that doesn't mean much in the Irish PR system, given that they are not very transfer-friendly and are regarded, unsurprisingly, as toxic by most of the other parties,
    https://irishelectionprojections.com/2021/12/21/december-2021-projections-update/

    The latest seat projection has SF at 63 with the FF-FG-Green government narrowly losing their majority. I'm not sure how this is calculated with assumed transfers etc.

    If Sinn Fein gets up to around just over 60 seats and doesn't completely cannibalise the Greens, SDs, PBP and Labour, I would have thought it would be difficult to exclude SF from government. FF and FG would have to work with the independents and possibly even Labour as well to retain a majority.

    Also isn't Mary Lou Macdonald Ireland still most popular politician?
    She would at least get first dibs.
    SF isn't toxic in the Republic either. FG and FF both came out of the IRA. It isn't Uber shocking in the way it is here. And also for the obvious reason that they lead the polls comfortably.
    They are increasingly the Party of the young. The atheist and agnostic. Of the poor. And the ones who talk about housing, low pay and inequality.
    I'd put Macdonald as favourite for next Taoiseach.
    And if she does her high tax, high spend agenda would see an exodus of corporations from Dublin. It would undo much of the economic Thatcherism FG and FF have pursued in Ireland to turn it from an economic backwater in the 1970s to a top 10 nation by gdp per capita today.

    Hence so many middle class Irish voters are terrified of SF
    In a democracy, everyone is entitled to vote for the party of their choice, not just the middle class and the rich.
  • THREAD on England & Omicron and what is going on.

    My take on it.

    TLDR: things are pretty bad and I'm sad & bewildered at lack of govt action and general levels of hopium. 1/18

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1476616293822390280
  • Well I'm afraid Starmer is wrong. It is time to lockdown, the models I am afraid are proving correct and we must protect lives going forward.

    I respectfully say to you many do not agree, you have a pattern of seeking lockdown, but it is not supported across the the conservative, labour and lib dems parties nor by a large part of the electorate who do not see omicron in the same light as you do
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?

    Quite possibly SF both North and south of the bordering a couple of years. Surely that would mean a border poll?
    Yepp.

    SF have led in every poll in NI for two years, and in last 15 Irish polls in a row.
    Yebbut that doesn't mean much in the Irish PR system, given that they are not very transfer-friendly and are regarded, unsurprisingly, as toxic by most of the other parties,
    https://irishelectionprojections.com/2021/12/21/december-2021-projections-update/

    The latest seat projection has SF at 63 with the FF-FG-Green government narrowly losing their majority. I'm not sure how this is calculated with assumed transfers etc.

    If Sinn Fein gets up to around just over 60 seats and doesn't completely cannibalise the Greens, SDs, PBP and Labour, I would have thought it would be difficult to exclude SF from government. FF and FG would have to work with the independents and possibly even Labour as well to retain a majority.

    Also isn't Mary Lou Macdonald Ireland still most popular politician?
    She would at least get first dibs.
    SF isn't toxic in the Republic either. FG and FF both came out of the IRA. It isn't Uber shocking in the way it is here. And also for the obvious reason that they lead the polls comfortably.
    They are increasingly the Party of the young. The atheist and agnostic. Of the poor. And the ones who talk about housing, low pay and inequality.
    I'd put Macdonald as favourite for next Taoiseach.
    And if she does her high tax, high spend agenda would see an exodus of corporations from Dublin. It would undo much of the economic Thatcherism FG and FF have pursued in Ireland to turn it from an economic backwater in the 1970s to a top 10 nation by gdp per capita today.

    Hence so many middle class Irish voters are terrified of SF
    In a democracy, everyone is entitled to vote for the party of their choice, not just the middle class and the rich.
    They are, does not mean their choice would be any good for the economy. A SF government in Ireland would be little different to what a Corbyn Labour government would have been here
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.

    lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
    Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
    Will you be calling for it each day (or perhaps twice a day just to make sure everyone sees it) going forward?

    And the implication of your earlier post is that you made the first call before studying the data. A reflex perhaps?
    Please withdraw your remark that I call for it "as my hobby" as that is wrong.

    I will not be posting the same remark twice a day, absolutely not.
  • londoneye said:

    It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.

    Nope. If the cabinet gives in now then we will be locked down every winter for years to come.

    fair enough as long as you are prepared to accept peoples grannies will die as a result of that decision
    The same argument that will be trotted out every winter from now on. Before 2019 we had no idea we could control the death rate from winter seasonal virus other than by flu vaccinations. Now we have this new shiny tool that only has one drawback: it totally fecks the economy and our way of life.

  • Well I'm afraid Starmer is wrong. It is time to lockdown, the models I am afraid are proving correct and we must protect lives going forward.

    I respectfully say to you many do not agree, you have a pattern of seeking lockdown, but it is not supported across the the conservative, labour and lib dems parties nor by a large part of the electorate who do not see omicron in the same light as you do
    Well respectfully, I disagree with them.

    When did I last seek a lockdown, a very long time ago. So as usual you are lying and bullying me.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.

    lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
    Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
    Will you be calling for it each day (or perhaps twice a day just to make sure everyone sees it) going forward?

    And the implication of your earlier post is that you made the first call before studying the data. A reflex perhaps?
    Please withdraw your remark that I call for it "as my hobby" as that is wrong.

    I will not be posting the same remark twice a day, absolutely not.
    Yet you’ve done exactly that today.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?

    Quite possibly SF both North and south of the bordering a couple of years. Surely that would mean a border poll?
    Yepp.

    SF have led in every poll in NI for two years, and in last 15 Irish polls in a row.
    Yebbut that doesn't mean much in the Irish PR system, given that they are not very transfer-friendly and are regarded, unsurprisingly, as toxic by most of the other parties,
    https://irishelectionprojections.com/2021/12/21/december-2021-projections-update/

    The latest seat projection has SF at 63 with the FF-FG-Green government narrowly losing their majority. I'm not sure how this is calculated with assumed transfers etc.

    If Sinn Fein gets up to around just over 60 seats and doesn't completely cannibalise the Greens, SDs, PBP and Labour, I would have thought it would be difficult to exclude SF from government. FF and FG would have to work with the independents and possibly even Labour as well to retain a majority.

    Also isn't Mary Lou Macdonald Ireland still most popular politician?
    She would at least get first dibs.
    SF isn't toxic in the Republic either. FG and FF both came out of the IRA. It isn't Uber shocking in the way it is here. And also for the obvious reason that they lead the polls comfortably.
    They are increasingly the Party of the young. The atheist and agnostic. Of the poor. And the ones who talk about housing, low pay and inequality.
    I'd put Macdonald as favourite for next Taoiseach.
    And if she does her high tax, high spend agenda would see an exodus of corporations from Dublin. It would undo much of the economic Thatcherism FG and FF have pursued in Ireland to turn it from an economic backwater in the 1970s to a top 10 nation by gdp per capita today.

    Hence so many middle class Irish voters are terrified of SF
    high tax, high spend. Sounds like Boris Johnson's Conservative Party!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?

    Quite possibly SF both North and south of the bordering a couple of years. Surely that would mean a border poll?
    Yepp.

    SF have led in every poll in NI for two years, and in last 15 Irish polls in a row.
    Yebbut that doesn't mean much in the Irish PR system, given that they are not very transfer-friendly and are regarded, unsurprisingly, as toxic by most of the other parties,
    https://irishelectionprojections.com/2021/12/21/december-2021-projections-update/

    The latest seat projection has SF at 63 with the FF-FG-Green government narrowly losing their majority. I'm not sure how this is calculated with assumed transfers etc.

    If Sinn Fein gets up to around just over 60 seats and doesn't completely cannibalise the Greens, SDs, PBP and Labour, I would have thought it would be difficult to exclude SF from government. FF and FG would have to work with the independents and possibly even Labour as well to retain a majority.

    Also isn't Mary Lou Macdonald Ireland still most popular politician?
    She would at least get first dibs.
    SF isn't toxic in the Republic either. FG and FF both came out of the IRA. It isn't Uber shocking in the way it is here. And also for the obvious reason that they lead the polls comfortably.
    They are increasingly the Party of the young. The atheist and agnostic. Of the poor. And the ones who talk about housing, low pay and inequality.
    I'd put Macdonald as favourite for next Taoiseach.
    And if she does her high tax, high spend agenda would see an exodus of corporations from Dublin. It would undo much of the economic Thatcherism FG and FF have pursued in Ireland to turn it from an economic backwater in the 1970s to a top 10 nation by gdp per capita today.

    Hence so many middle class Irish voters are terrified of SF
    In a democracy, everyone is entitled to vote for the party of their choice, not just the middle class and the rich.
    They are, does not mean their choice would be any good for the economy. A SF government in Ireland would be little different to what a Corbyn Labour government would have been here
    I thought you were interested in protecting estates, not what is best for the economy?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited December 2021
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.

    lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
    Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
    Will you be calling for it each day (or perhaps twice a day just to make sure everyone sees it) going forward?

    And the implication of your earlier post is that you made the first call before studying the data. A reflex perhaps?
    Please withdraw your remark that I call for it "as my hobby" as that is wrong.

    I will not be posting the same remark twice a day, absolutely not.
    Yet you’ve done exactly that today.
    Well it won't be happening going forward. Withdraw the remark that "calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day." as I have not called for a lockdown in a long time.

    If you will not, I ask you to disengage with my posts.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    TimS said:

    londoneye said:

    Didn't get the memo:

    THE TIMES: No need for more Covid curbs, say NHS chiefs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1476686549966364676?s=20

    mmm i see more let it rip merchants....ok
    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp
    ·
    4h
    The usual people are out there saying all will be fine soon - we just have to let people get infected and it will be done. Just as they did at previous waves.
    Except that’s not what “the usual people” (by which I assume she means the like of Francois Balloux or Andrew Lillico) are saying. By and large the message is that this is endemic now, it will never go away, and those in favour of restrictions aren’t articulating what their end game is.

    She and the other public health authoritarians need to be honest about what their long term alternative is. If it’s to wait for more anti viral treatments then find, say so. If it’s that we should live with permanent restrictions then fine (we’ll, not fine), say so. Some are now saying exactly this.

    In reality the “usual people” is increasingly the British public at large, and not just the young.
    Do we have any recent polling? Up to some weeks ago the public was more pro-lockdown than the Government. I do get the sense that that's changed somewhat, though I know people who are still extremely hostile to relaxing the rules. The median position seems to be "I'll probably get it sometime and it doesn't usually seem too bad, but I'll avoid meeting people if I've got something important coming up." People are pretty vague on the rules, too - some think you should test twice a week regardless, which I believe is only health and care workers?
  • Farooq said:

    londoneye said:

    TimS said:

    londoneye said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    londoneye said:

    londoneye said:

    dixiedean said:

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
    relative to the population they have much fewer cases than us....and this in a more unvaccinated population
    Their positivity and death rates are much higher than ours though.

    So why not share some other antivaxx memes.
    deaths in us are similar to uk relative to population again in a more unvaccinated population
    No, they aren’t. UK deaths are just over a hundred a day. US 1,500.
    Well they have 5* our pop.
    Yep, but 15x the deaths.
    no only recently is death rate higher overall they have similar death rate to us in a much more unvaccinated population
    US share of population vaccinated = 73.1%; UK share of population vaccinated = 75.8%. So not much difference there.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    UK doing much better recently on boosters but lo and behold that coincides with the UK doing much better recently on deaths. What a coincidence, eh?
    They also have much less of an age-stratified vaccination take up. The UK has, fortuitously or by design, ended up with very high rates among the old and infirm and comparatively low rates in the young. The US pattern seems instead to be - and this is what a bonkers country it is - based largely on political party alignment.
    i think the antivaxxers in the us are worried about the graphene in the jabs
    You seem to be remarkably well versed in what antivaxers are "worried" about, which shows an admirable willingness to listen.
    You also seem to be remarkably obtuse when people point out the things you say tend to be factually rubbish, which is the exact opposite tendency. So here's what I think is happening.

    You're an antivax weirdo, testing the waters, casting a few hooks around to see what you can catch.
    But you've come to the wrong place because if there's one thing about this place that anyone can spot quickly is that it's full of fact-checking pedants who will mercilessly disassemble your bullshit and stuff it right back up your hoop.

    If you have any of those hooks left, the ones you've been casting about, I politely suggest you sling it.
    you seem very angry...we need moe love in the world not hate and anger
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.

    lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
    Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
    Will you be calling for it each day (or perhaps twice a day just to make sure everyone sees it) going forward?

    And the implication of your earlier post is that you made the first call before studying the data. A reflex perhaps?
    Please withdraw your remark that I call for it "as my hobby" as that is wrong.

    I will not be posting the same remark twice a day, absolutely not.
    Yet you’ve done exactly that today.
    Well it won't be happening going forward. Withdraw the remark that "calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day." as I have not called for a lockdown in a long time.

    If you will not, I ask you to disengage with my posts.
    You need to chill man
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.

    lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
    Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
    Will you be calling for it each day (or perhaps twice a day just to make sure everyone sees it) going forward?

    And the implication of your earlier post is that you made the first call before studying the data. A reflex perhaps?
    Please withdraw your remark that I call for it "as my hobby" as that is wrong.

    I will not be posting the same remark twice a day, absolutely not.
    Yet you’ve done exactly that today.
    Well it won't be happening going forward. Withdraw the remark that "calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day." as I have not called for a lockdown in a long time.

    If you will not, I ask you to disengage with my posts.
    Yea you have, you called for one this morning.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,138

    RobD said:

    @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.

    lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
    Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
    It looks to me as if case numbers have already peaked in London, will peak in the next week in the rest of the country, hospitalisation numbers will peak nationwide before mid January, and the pressure on the NHS will be manageable.

    South Africa has just lifted its nightly curfew that has been in place since March 2020. I dare not count chickens, but it does feel like Omicron just might be the T-Rex that snaps up the circling velociraptors at the end of our Covid Jurassic Park.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?

    Quite possibly SF both North and south of the bordering a couple of years. Surely that would mean a border poll?
    Yepp.

    SF have led in every poll in NI for two years, and in last 15 Irish polls in a row.
    Yebbut that doesn't mean much in the Irish PR system, given that they are not very transfer-friendly and are regarded, unsurprisingly, as toxic by most of the other parties,
    https://irishelectionprojections.com/2021/12/21/december-2021-projections-update/

    The latest seat projection has SF at 63 with the FF-FG-Green government narrowly losing their majority. I'm not sure how this is calculated with assumed transfers etc.

    If Sinn Fein gets up to around just over 60 seats and doesn't completely cannibalise the Greens, SDs, PBP and Labour, I would have thought it would be difficult to exclude SF from government. FF and FG would have to work with the independents and possibly even Labour as well to retain a majority.

    Also isn't Mary Lou Macdonald Ireland still most popular politician?
    She would at least get first dibs.
    SF isn't toxic in the Republic either. FG and FF both came out of the IRA. It isn't Uber shocking in the way it is here. And also for the obvious reason that they lead the polls comfortably.
    They are increasingly the Party of the young. The atheist and agnostic. Of the poor. And the ones who talk about housing, low pay and inequality.
    I'd put Macdonald as favourite for next Taoiseach.
    At every election there are awkward questions for the leader of SF about various legacy issues from the troubles. Will they tell the families of victims where missing bodies are buried, sort of thing. And you sometimes have SF TDs or councillors posting offensive stuff on twitter, as with the Kingsmill anniversary not too long ago. But is fading over time.

    Worth noting that if the coalition lasts the distance then Leo Varadkar will be the next Taoiseach, as the rotisserie Taoiseach is rotated between FF and FG. But McDonald should be favourite to be Taoiseach after the next election. The main question appears to be whether FF would accept being a junior coalition partner with SF, or if SF would for a coalition with smaller opposition parties like Labour and the SocDems.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.

    lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
    Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
    Will you be calling for it each day (or perhaps twice a day just to make sure everyone sees it) going forward?

    And the implication of your earlier post is that you made the first call before studying the data. A reflex perhaps?
    Please withdraw your remark that I call for it "as my hobby" as that is wrong.

    I will not be posting the same remark twice a day, absolutely not.
    Yet you’ve done exactly that today.
    Well it won't be happening going forward. Withdraw the remark that "calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day." as I have not called for a lockdown in a long time.

    If you will not, I ask you to disengage with my posts.
    Yea you have, you called for one this morning.
    Calling for a lockdown twice in the last many, many months is not "as night follows day".

    Please disengage now or I will ignore you going forward.
  • THREAD on England & Omicron and what is going on.

    My take on it.

    TLDR: things are pretty bad and I'm sad & bewildered at lack of govt action and general levels of hopium. 1/18

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1476616293822390280

    You refer to Pagel of isage as your justification

    I think you will find she is widely panned for her views
  • Look if you don't agree with a lockdown fine but don't be dishonest. I've not yet called for a lockdown. I am afraid the numbers are not looking good.

    I still hope I am proved to be wrong. I have my fingers crossed for the optimistic folks.

    wait 2 weeks mate when everyones panicking and you are proved right
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    londoneye said:

    It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.

    Nope. If the cabinet gives in now then we will be locked down every winter for years to come.

    fair enough as long as you are prepared to accept peoples grannies will die as a result of that decision
    If they are over 80 peoples Grannies will die anyway sadly, Covid or no Covid.

    For the double vaccinated plus boosted under 80s, death rates from Covid are near zero
    HMQ is 95, just so you know. Life doesn't end at 80.
    For most people it does, average UK life expectancy is 81
  • TimS said:

    Alistair said:

    Ouch!!!!



    Stewart Wood @StewartWood

    Hospital beds per 1000 people (most recent World Bank data)

    -Germany: 8.0
    -France: 6.0
    -Italy: 3.2
    -UK: 2.5

    ICU-CCB beds per 100,000 people
    -Germany: 38.7
    -France: 11.6
    -Italy: 12.5
    -UK: 6.6



    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1

    Are we prepared to consider learning from other European countries that don't use the NHS model?

    Are we prepared to spend a lot more money on healthcare?

    Also the German figure is bunkum for the purposes of comparison, that bed figure is not staffed like an NHS ICU bed.
    Exactly right. A “bed” in health service terms is really about the staff and infrastructure around the patient.

    That said, health and social care are not sufficiently funded and this ends up creating the sort of long term problems that come from false economies. We need to spend a higher proportion of GDP on public services, and we need to get that from tax. But first and foremost we need GDP growth to fund the tax which funds services. Which means we also need to spend and invest way more in education and skills. And we need to get back into the European single market pronto. Enough with the silly sovereignty experiment. It doesn’t pay the bills.
    Considering the UK was the fastest growing G7 economy in our first year out of the Single Market . . .

    . . . and the UK is forecast to be the fastest growing G7 economy in our second year out of the Single Market too . . .

    . . . I'm really struggling to see your logic as to why we need to rejoin the Single Market? Its almost as if that was simply already your opinion pre-Brexit and nothing has changed your mind and there's no actual data or evidence to say that the experiment is silly. Like you're as open minded to Brexit as Pagel is to Covid?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?

    Quite possibly SF both North and south of the bordering a couple of years. Surely that would mean a border poll?
    Yepp.

    SF have led in every poll in NI for two years, and in last 15 Irish polls in a row.
    Yebbut that doesn't mean much in the Irish PR system, given that they are not very transfer-friendly and are regarded, unsurprisingly, as toxic by most of the other parties,
    https://irishelectionprojections.com/2021/12/21/december-2021-projections-update/

    The latest seat projection has SF at 63 with the FF-FG-Green government narrowly losing their majority. I'm not sure how this is calculated with assumed transfers etc.

    If Sinn Fein gets up to around just over 60 seats and doesn't completely cannibalise the Greens, SDs, PBP and Labour, I would have thought it would be difficult to exclude SF from government. FF and FG would have to work with the independents and possibly even Labour as well to retain a majority.

    Also isn't Mary Lou Macdonald Ireland still most popular politician?
    She would at least get first dibs.
    SF isn't toxic in the Republic either. FG and FF both came out of the IRA. It isn't Uber shocking in the way it is here. And also for the obvious reason that they lead the polls comfortably.
    They are increasingly the Party of the young. The atheist and agnostic. Of the poor. And the ones who talk about housing, low pay and inequality.
    I'd put Macdonald as favourite for next Taoiseach.
    And if she does her high tax, high spend agenda would see an exodus of corporations from Dublin. It would undo much of the economic Thatcherism FG and FF have pursued in Ireland to turn it from an economic backwater in the 1970s to a top 10 nation by gdp per capita today.

    Hence so many middle class Irish voters are terrified of SF
    In a democracy, everyone is entitled to vote for the party of their choice, not just the middle class and the rich.
    They are, does not mean their choice would be any good for the economy. A SF government in Ireland would be little different to what a Corbyn Labour government would have been here
    I thought you were interested in protecting estates, not what is best for the economy?
    The 2 are interlinked.

    A strong economy means more people own assets of higher value
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    RobD said:

    @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.

    lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
    Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
    Sure, if six hours ago isn't a long time, then no you haven't.

    Or is this still part of the same "call"?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.

    lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
    Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
    Will you be calling for it each day (or perhaps twice a day just to make sure everyone sees it) going forward?

    And the implication of your earlier post is that you made the first call before studying the data. A reflex perhaps?
    Please withdraw your remark that I call for it "as my hobby" as that is wrong.

    I will not be posting the same remark twice a day, absolutely not.
    Yet you’ve done exactly that today.
    Well it won't be happening going forward. Withdraw the remark that "calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day." as I have not called for a lockdown in a long time.

    If you will not, I ask you to disengage with my posts.
    Yea you have, you called for one this morning.
    Calling for a lockdown twice in the last many, many months is not "as night follows day".

    Please disengage now or I will ignore you going forward.
    You don’t think it was inevitable the moment the new variant appeared?

    If I was to look at the number of times various commenters had called for a lockdown, I am confident that you would be at the top. I don’t think it’s an unfair accusation that you do it quite often.
  • Very happy to acknowledge I called for a lockdown twice day. But that is not "as night follows day". This is nonsense. Anyone making the accusation I "constantly call for lockdowns" will be ignored going forward.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    londoneye said:

    It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.

    Nope. If the cabinet gives in now then we will be locked down every winter for years to come.

    fair enough as long as you are prepared to accept peoples grannies will die as a result of that decision
    If they are over 80 peoples Grannies will die anyway sadly, Covid or no Covid.

    For the double vaccinated plus boosted under 80s, death rates from Covid are near zero
    HMQ is 95, just so you know. Life doesn't end at 80.
    For most people it does, average UK life expectancy is 81
    That's not what average means mate.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?

    Quite possibly SF both North and south of the bordering a couple of years. Surely that would mean a border poll?
    Yepp.

    SF have led in every poll in NI for two years, and in last 15 Irish polls in a row.
    Yebbut that doesn't mean much in the Irish PR system, given that they are not very transfer-friendly and are regarded, unsurprisingly, as toxic by most of the other parties,
    https://irishelectionprojections.com/2021/12/21/december-2021-projections-update/

    The latest seat projection has SF at 63 with the FF-FG-Green government narrowly losing their majority. I'm not sure how this is calculated with assumed transfers etc.

    If Sinn Fein gets up to around just over 60 seats and doesn't completely cannibalise the Greens, SDs, PBP and Labour, I would have thought it would be difficult to exclude SF from government. FF and FG would have to work with the independents and possibly even Labour as well to retain a majority.

    Also isn't Mary Lou Macdonald Ireland still most popular politician?
    She would at least get first dibs.
    SF isn't toxic in the Republic either. FG and FF both came out of the IRA. It isn't Uber shocking in the way it is here. And also for the obvious reason that they lead the polls comfortably.
    They are increasingly the Party of the young. The atheist and agnostic. Of the poor. And the ones who talk about housing, low pay and inequality.
    I'd put Macdonald as favourite for next Taoiseach.
    And if she does her high tax, high spend agenda would see an exodus of corporations from Dublin. It would undo much of the economic Thatcherism FG and FF have pursued in Ireland to turn it from an economic backwater in the 1970s to a top 10 nation by gdp per capita today.

    Hence so many middle class Irish voters are terrified of SF
    In a democracy, everyone is entitled to vote for the party of their choice, not just the middle class and the rich.
    They are, does not mean their choice would be any good for the economy. A SF government in Ireland would be little different to what a Corbyn Labour government would have been here
    I thought you were interested in protecting estates, not what is best for the economy?
    The 2 are interlinked.

    A strong economy means more people own assets of higher value
    Only when it suits of course.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.

    lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
    Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
    Will you be calling for it each day (or perhaps twice a day just to make sure everyone sees it) going forward?

    And the implication of your earlier post is that you made the first call before studying the data. A reflex perhaps?
    Please withdraw your remark that I call for it "as my hobby" as that is wrong.

    I will not be posting the same remark twice a day, absolutely not.
    Yet you’ve done exactly that today.
    Well it won't be happening going forward. Withdraw the remark that "calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day." as I have not called for a lockdown in a long time.

    If you will not, I ask you to disengage with my posts.
    Yea you have, you called for one this morning.
    Calling for a lockdown twice in the last many, many months is not "as night follows day".

    Please disengage now or I will ignore you going forward.
    You don’t think it was inevitable the moment the new variant appeared?

    If I was to look at the number of times various commenters had called for a lockdown, I am confident that you would be at the top. I don’t think it’s an unfair accusation that you do it quite often.
    Find the last time I called for lockdown other than earlier today.

    Disengage now. Or that is it RobD.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?

    Quite possibly SF both North and south of the bordering a couple of years. Surely that would mean a border poll?
    Yepp.

    SF have led in every poll in NI for two years, and in last 15 Irish polls in a row.
    Yebbut that doesn't mean much in the Irish PR system, given that they are not very transfer-friendly and are regarded, unsurprisingly, as toxic by most of the other parties,
    https://irishelectionprojections.com/2021/12/21/december-2021-projections-update/

    The latest seat projection has SF at 63 with the FF-FG-Green government narrowly losing their majority. I'm not sure how this is calculated with assumed transfers etc.

    If Sinn Fein gets up to around just over 60 seats and doesn't completely cannibalise the Greens, SDs, PBP and Labour, I would have thought it would be difficult to exclude SF from government. FF and FG would have to work with the independents and possibly even Labour as well to retain a majority.

    Also isn't Mary Lou Macdonald Ireland still most popular politician?
    She would at least get first dibs.
    SF isn't toxic in the Republic either. FG and FF both came out of the IRA. It isn't Uber shocking in the way it is here. And also for the obvious reason that they lead the polls comfortably.
    They are increasingly the Party of the young. The atheist and agnostic. Of the poor. And the ones who talk about housing, low pay and inequality.
    I'd put Macdonald as favourite for next Taoiseach.
    And if she does her high tax, high spend agenda would see an exodus of corporations from Dublin. It would undo much of the economic Thatcherism FG and FF have pursued in Ireland to turn it from an economic backwater in the 1970s to a top 10 nation by gdp per capita today.

    Hence so many middle class Irish voters are terrified of SF
    high tax, high spend. Sounds like Boris Johnson's Conservative Party!
    SF would whack up corporation tax and income tax in Ireland far beyond current UK levels
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Very happy to acknowledge I called for a lockdown twice day. But that is not "as night follows day". This is nonsense. Anyone making the accusation I "constantly call for lockdowns" will be ignored going forward.

    You don't have to tell people you're ignoring them. You can simply ignore them.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    Ouch!!!!



    Stewart Wood @StewartWood

    Hospital beds per 1000 people (most recent World Bank data)

    -Germany: 8.0
    -France: 6.0
    -Italy: 3.2
    -UK: 2.5

    ICU-CCB beds per 100,000 people
    -Germany: 38.7
    -France: 11.6
    -Italy: 12.5
    -UK: 6.6



    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1

    Are we prepared to consider learning from other European countries that don't use the NHS model?

    Genuine question. Is hospital beds and/or ICU beds a useful metric for healthcare delivery capacity outside of a pandemic?
  • Very happy to acknowledge I called for a lockdown twice day. But that is not "as night follows day". This is nonsense. Anyone making the accusation I "constantly call for lockdowns" will be ignored going forward.

    You don't have to tell people you're ignoring them. You can simply ignore them.
    I am making it clear publicly. That is what will happen.

    I will not be smeared and bullied in such a way. End of story.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?

    Quite possibly SF both North and south of the bordering a couple of years. Surely that would mean a border poll?
    Yepp.

    SF have led in every poll in NI for two years, and in last 15 Irish polls in a row.
    Yebbut that doesn't mean much in the Irish PR system, given that they are not very transfer-friendly and are regarded, unsurprisingly, as toxic by most of the other parties,
    https://irishelectionprojections.com/2021/12/21/december-2021-projections-update/

    The latest seat projection has SF at 63 with the FF-FG-Green government narrowly losing their majority. I'm not sure how this is calculated with assumed transfers etc.

    If Sinn Fein gets up to around just over 60 seats and doesn't completely cannibalise the Greens, SDs, PBP and Labour, I would have thought it would be difficult to exclude SF from government. FF and FG would have to work with the independents and possibly even Labour as well to retain a majority.

    Also isn't Mary Lou Macdonald Ireland still most popular politician?
    She would at least get first dibs.
    SF isn't toxic in the Republic either. FG and FF both came out of the IRA. It isn't Uber shocking in the way it is here. And also for the obvious reason that they lead the polls comfortably.
    They are increasingly the Party of the young. The atheist and agnostic. Of the poor. And the ones who talk about housing, low pay and inequality.
    I'd put Macdonald as favourite for next Taoiseach.
    And if she does her high tax, high spend agenda would see an exodus of corporations from Dublin. It would undo much of the economic Thatcherism FG and FF have pursued in Ireland to turn it from an economic backwater in the 1970s to a top 10 nation by gdp per capita today.

    Hence so many middle class Irish voters are terrified of SF
    high tax, high spend. Sounds like Boris Johnson's Conservative Party!
    SF would whack up corporation tax and income tax in Ireland far beyond current UK levels
    Is that what "high" means? Higher than UK levels?
  • HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    londoneye said:

    It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.

    Nope. If the cabinet gives in now then we will be locked down every winter for years to come.

    fair enough as long as you are prepared to accept peoples grannies will die as a result of that decision
    If they are over 80 peoples Grannies will die anyway sadly, Covid or no Covid.

    For the double vaccinated plus boosted under 80s, death rates from Covid are near zero
    HMQ is 95, just so you know. Life doesn't end at 80.
    For most people it does, average UK life expectancy is 81
    Very pleased then on new years eve my beloved wife of 82 is defying your stats
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.

    lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
    Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
    Will you be calling for it each day (or perhaps twice a day just to make sure everyone sees it) going forward?

    And the implication of your earlier post is that you made the first call before studying the data. A reflex perhaps?
    Please withdraw your remark that I call for it "as my hobby" as that is wrong.

    I will not be posting the same remark twice a day, absolutely not.
    Yet you’ve done exactly that today.
    Well it won't be happening going forward. Withdraw the remark that "calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day." as I have not called for a lockdown in a long time.

    If you will not, I ask you to disengage with my posts.
    Yea you have, you called for one this morning.
    Calling for a lockdown twice in the last many, many months is not "as night follows day".

    Please disengage now or I will ignore you going forward.
    You don’t think it was inevitable the moment the new variant appeared?

    If I was to look at the number of times various commenters had called for a lockdown, I am confident that you would be at the top. I don’t think it’s an unfair accusation that you do it quite often.
    Find the last time I called for lockdown other than earlier today.

    Disengage now. Or that is it RobD.
    It would be in the previous wave, no?

    And “as night follows day”? Your first call was earlier in the day, your second was that same night.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    londoneye said:

    It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.

    Nope. If the cabinet gives in now then we will be locked down every winter for years to come.

    fair enough as long as you are prepared to accept peoples grannies will die as a result of that decision
    If they are over 80 peoples Grannies will die anyway sadly, Covid or no Covid.

    For the double vaccinated plus boosted under 80s, death rates from Covid are near zero
    HMQ is 95, just so you know. Life doesn't end at 80.
    For most people it does, average UK life expectancy is 81
    Yes, it can do, but I hope we're not getting into the habit of writing people off just for being near that age.
    That's how we got to having a life expectancy that is so much higher than it was. By not writing people off and striving for better treatment and the best quality of life.
  • Endillion said:

    RobD said:

    @RobD I did but I wanted to come back. I've studied the data, I am afraid it's not looking good.

    I won't hold it against the Government up to now but it is time to lockdown as of the numbers today. The models are proving correct and we must save lives.

    lol, you’ve studied the data? No, calling for lockdowns is just your hobby. As night follows day.
    Not at all. I haven't called for a lockdown in a very long time.
    Sure, if six hours ago isn't a long time, then no you haven't.

    Or is this still part of the same "call"?
    Other than earlier today, when did I last call for one.

    Not in a very long time. Please disengage now and do not smear me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?

    Quite possibly SF both North and south of the bordering a couple of years. Surely that would mean a border poll?
    Yepp.

    SF have led in every poll in NI for two years, and in last 15 Irish polls in a row.
    Yebbut that doesn't mean much in the Irish PR system, given that they are not very transfer-friendly and are regarded, unsurprisingly, as toxic by most of the other parties,
    https://irishelectionprojections.com/2021/12/21/december-2021-projections-update/

    The latest seat projection has SF at 63 with the FF-FG-Green government narrowly losing their majority. I'm not sure how this is calculated with assumed transfers etc.

    If Sinn Fein gets up to around just over 60 seats and doesn't completely cannibalise the Greens, SDs, PBP and Labour, I would have thought it would be difficult to exclude SF from government. FF and FG would have to work with the independents and possibly even Labour as well to retain a majority.

    Also isn't Mary Lou Macdonald Ireland still most popular politician?
    She would at least get first dibs.
    SF isn't toxic in the Republic either. FG and FF both came out of the IRA. It isn't Uber shocking in the way it is here. And also for the obvious reason that they lead the polls comfortably.
    They are increasingly the Party of the young. The atheist and agnostic. Of the poor. And the ones who talk about housing, low pay and inequality.
    I'd put Macdonald as favourite for next Taoiseach.
    And if she does her high tax, high spend agenda would see an exodus of corporations from Dublin. It would undo much of the economic Thatcherism FG and FF have pursued in Ireland to turn it from an economic backwater in the 1970s to a top 10 nation by gdp per capita today.

    Hence so many middle class Irish voters are terrified of SF
    high tax, high spend. Sounds like Boris Johnson's Conservative Party!
    SF would whack up corporation tax and income tax in Ireland far beyond current UK levels
    Is that what "high" means? Higher than UK levels?
    Which would then see an exodus of companies from Ireland to the UK and Switzerland
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,138

    TimS said:

    londoneye said:

    Didn't get the memo:

    THE TIMES: No need for more Covid curbs, say NHS chiefs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1476686549966364676?s=20

    mmm i see more let it rip merchants....ok
    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp
    ·
    4h
    The usual people are out there saying all will be fine soon - we just have to let people get infected and it will be done. Just as they did at previous waves.
    Except that’s not what “the usual people” (by which I assume she means the like of Francois Balloux or Andrew Lillico) are saying. By and large the message is that this is endemic now, it will never go away, and those in favour of restrictions aren’t articulating what their end game is.

    She and the other public health authoritarians need to be honest about what their long term alternative is. If it’s to wait for more anti viral treatments then find, say so. If it’s that we should live with permanent restrictions then fine (we’ll, not fine), say so. Some are now saying exactly this.

    In reality the “usual people” is increasingly the British public at large, and not just the young.
    Do we have any recent polling? Up to some weeks ago the public was more pro-lockdown than the Government. I do get the sense that that's changed somewhat, though I know people who are still extremely hostile to relaxing the rules. The median position seems to be "I'll probably get it sometime and it doesn't usually seem too bad, but I'll avoid meeting people if I've got something important coming up." People are pretty vague on the rules, too - some think you should test twice a week regardless, which I believe is only health and care workers?
    I’ve not seen recent polling. But… I do think there’s an element of virtue signalling in what people tell pollsters in those surveys. Or hypocrisy. They say what they think is the right answer, then do something different.

    I travelled across London on public transport today for a walk around Camden market. It was heaving. Yes, people wearing masks on the tube, but very much out and about and living life.

    Politically we are in the odd situation where the left is generally more pro-restrictions, yet the young - otherwise more left leaning - are the most anti.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    londoneye said:

    It is time to lockdown. I wish it was a different outcome. I really do.

    Nope. If the cabinet gives in now then we will be locked down every winter for years to come.

    fair enough as long as you are prepared to accept peoples grannies will die as a result of that decision
    If they are over 80 peoples Grannies will die anyway sadly, Covid or no Covid.

    For the double vaccinated plus boosted under 80s, death rates from Covid are near zero
    HMQ is 95, just so you know. Life doesn't end at 80.
    For most people it does, average UK life expectancy is 81
    Very pleased then on new years eve my beloved wife of 82 is defying your stats
    Happy birthday Mrs G!
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?

    Quite possibly SF both North and south of the bordering a couple of years. Surely that would mean a border poll?
    Yepp.

    SF have led in every poll in NI for two years, and in last 15 Irish polls in a row.
    Yebbut that doesn't mean much in the Irish PR system, given that they are not very transfer-friendly and are regarded, unsurprisingly, as toxic by most of the other parties,
    https://irishelectionprojections.com/2021/12/21/december-2021-projections-update/

    The latest seat projection has SF at 63 with the FF-FG-Green government narrowly losing their majority. I'm not sure how this is calculated with assumed transfers etc.

    If Sinn Fein gets up to around just over 60 seats and doesn't completely cannibalise the Greens, SDs, PBP and Labour, I would have thought it would be difficult to exclude SF from government. FF and FG would have to work with the independents and possibly even Labour as well to retain a majority.

    Also isn't Mary Lou Macdonald Ireland still most popular politician?
    She would at least get first dibs.
    SF isn't toxic in the Republic either. FG and FF both came out of the IRA. It isn't Uber shocking in the way it is here. And also for the obvious reason that they lead the polls comfortably.
    They are increasingly the Party of the young. The atheist and agnostic. Of the poor. And the ones who talk about housing, low pay and inequality.
    I'd put Macdonald as favourite for next Taoiseach.
    And if she does her high tax, high spend agenda would see an exodus of corporations from Dublin. It would undo much of the economic Thatcherism FG and FF have pursued in Ireland to turn it from an economic backwater in the 1970s to a top 10 nation by gdp per capita today.

    Hence so many middle class Irish voters are terrified of SF
    In a democracy, everyone is entitled to vote for the party of their choice, not just the middle class and the rich.
    They are, does not mean their choice would be any good for the economy. A SF government in Ireland would be little different to what a Corbyn Labour government would have been here
    I thought you were interested in protecting estates, not what is best for the economy?
    The 2 are interlinked.

    A strong economy means more people own assets of higher value
    ludicrous london house prices os not a strong economy
This discussion has been closed.