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A look at how you should price a bet – politicalbetting.com

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  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    Within the lottery of holiday stats I am willing to stick my neck out and say London has actually peaked.

    Hmm, I wonder how much of that is people not getting PCR tests because they don't want to be bound by the isolation rules this week. Naming no names I know a few people who did it, my wife and I regret reporting our positive results as well given we had no symptoms and we're locked up for a week of our time off that we would otherwise have spent with friends.

    On the actual data, the ventilated patients stat for England is barely moving while in hospital is way up, this is unlike anything we've seen before. I think we get the incidental admissions report tomorrow, I think that might solve the riddle of why one number is shooting up and the other which until now has been intrinsically linked hasn't moved at all.
    I presume that ICU has a more rigorous infection protocol than general wards so less chance of hospital acquired infection.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    darkage said:

    (reposted from previous thread)
    Sorry for going off topic but I wondered if people still use BT for their broadband. I have stuck with them, on the assumption that they would be no better than anyone else. But I have found them to be hard work. I had a problem with my router which means that it cuts out continually, I kept being told that I was imagining it or it was my computer that was at fault, I proved otherwise to them and they eventually sent an engineer around and it seemed to be fixed, only now the problems are starting up again, and I am stuck with another 9 months on my contract. The current situation is really bad because the WIFI is now so unreliable that I can't use it for work, mobile broadband is more reliable. I fear that I will need to go in to some kind of energy sapping consumer rights battle with BT. Am I just unfortunate or do other people experience/hear of these problems with BT?

    BT have been great for me.

    Avoid Virgin like the plague.
    I have never met someone with a good word to say about Virgin fibre/broadband.
    Virgin when it is great is utterly brilliant but far too often it is terrible and their customer services are even worse.

    One of the reasons I'm migrating from O2 is I know they'll infect O2's brilliant customer services.
    All companies are the same. Every service is great when things go well and appalling as soon as there is a problem. Not just ISPs but shops, banks, delivery services, everyone. The suppliers probably do not use their own service, and certainly not their own complaints procedure. Nothing is tested. Customer services consists of a badly-programmed chatbot and two bored housewives in a far-off country of which we know little.
    Nah, I had a few issues with O2 and BT in the past, they were magnificent.

    Ditto Lloyds and Coutts.

    Also big shoutout to Sky when I had a faulty box or two.
    Do you really bank with NatWest?
    I used to bank with RBS and was upgraded to Coutts.
    I hope you don’t still bank there.

    If you are going for a vanity chequebook at least be classy and work with Childs or Drummonds
    I don't have a chequebook anymore. No point, it is one those areas that is a cause of a lot of frauds and scams.

    I'm with Lloyds Mayfair these days.

    I know, I know, the shame, the shame, but I have to show my working class credentials somehow.
    I banked with Lloyds when I was a teenager 😂
    Banking snobbery is pretty damn sad,.
    Quite. Everyone knows you should keep quiet about banking with Coutts.
    I was in the same class at school as the son of the then CEO of Coutts
    My Dad’s first proper job was as executive assistant to David Money Coutts
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929

    Just watched Wes Anderson's "The French Dispatch".

    Joy. Utter joy.

    Just the odd throw away idea that makes you realise how brilliant the whole thing is.

    While it was entertaining, I thought it was far from his best. No matter how beautiful and inventive and whimsical it was, the lack of an overarching narrative was a big turn off for me. And he has such extraordinary casts, but you only see each actor for a few moments. It means you don't really connect with any of them.
  • I can't believe we're still having to explain "deaths a day" nearly 2 years into this whole thing. Today's 332 newly reported deaths can be seen in orange on this chart. Spread across a whole week and leaves the rolling average now well below 100. #notinthelast24hours


    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1476668062225027076?s=20
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929
    jonny83 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Are we still not counting re-infections?

    It looks like in January they will start to add them to the data/be included in the figures:

    Source:

    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1473584973676527617?t=Jdn9OIByp7FlcFslo8MhGw&s=19

    If they were included in the data right now I would imagine the real figures would be eye watering...
    I suspect close to 10% of the UK population have Omicron/Covid right now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929

    TimT said:

    If anybody is interested, my profile picture is a clipped part of a painting an AI created for me after being given the title "the dispatched child".....the machines are coming for all of us.

    Seems to be borrowing a lot from Rembrandt
    You can ask it to "borrow" the style from lots of different artists across a wide range of styles. In this case I didn't ask any more than a painting that matches the title.

    The zoomed out view is this young person sitting in a dim room with small amount of natural light coming from an unseen window bouncing off one of the walls.
    Could we get a link please?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,898
    edited December 2021

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    There's been a steady fall in deaths from a peak of 173 at the start of Nov to slightly below 100 a day now (Moving averages of course).
    Must have been to the booster rollout as cases have been rising throughout

    Yes, I think that is the boosters.
    Sorry but what about Omicron? Complicated because it seems to be more infectious but CFR in South Africa went through the floor.
    It's too early to discern any Omicron effect (On deaths), remember at the start of December there were literally about 5 cases in the whole of the UK. With all the lag involved in catching Omicron, passing it to your nan, your unvaxxed Nan's mate dieing and then reporting it we'll see the effect more in January I think.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    There's been a steady fall in deaths from a peak of 173 at the start of Nov to slightly below 100 a day now (Moving averages of course).
    Must have been to the booster rollout as cases have been rising throughout

    Yeah, thete is what I think is a really obvious booster effect to the age segregated stats. The priority groups fall off in the stats as the booster programme rolls out.

    Without boosters the exit "wave" would have got pretty nasty even without Omicron.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    I hope everybody is supporting Burnley tonight

    Absolutely not
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Just come across this which is pertinent to the debate about the university at Coventry:

    https://twitter.com/NoContextBrits/status/1468869733990780928
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Within the lottery of holiday stats I am willing to stick my neck out and say London has actually peaked.

    Blimey! Coming from you that means a lot. I vividly remember your excellent early works on weekly cycles and hubris!
    I reserve the right to reverse ferret on this in about 8 days time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    "If anyone says the UK’s 332 reported Covid deaths today are due to the Omicron surge*, that’s a useful sign that you can ignore anything else they say about Covid, ever."

    *They’re not, they’re due to a big reporting backlog over Christmas. No rise in deaths by date of death.

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1476658725616238597?s=20

    I think that there will be lot of backfilling, and date of deaths won't be complete for a fortnight or so. Too late to inform decision making.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Carnyx said:

    Just come across this which is pertinent to the debate about the university at Coventry:

    https://twitter.com/NoContextBrits/status/1468869733990780928

    Somehow they get away with it a little bit more than if they'd said, say, top 11.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    GIN1138 said:

    They used to say where there's muck there's money but these days they say where there's money there's Mandy ;)

    Wasnt he known to the black book owner as Petey.

    Not sure it's the same big hearted Socialist we all love though
  • Oh ****! Maxwell open to cutting a deal to reduce her sentence.

    Now Randy Andy’s sweating.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Leon said:

    Can't believe I've just seen a blatantly mixed-race couple on a commercial British TV advert

    I know - and I celebrate - the fact that race relations have vastly improved in the UK in recent decades. We are all Brits. But open miscegenation, apparently celebrated in a TV advertisement?

    Thank God it seems to be a rarity. I haven't seen any others. Perhaps it is just a one-off, and no cause for alarm

    Who are you? Austin Powers.

    I am fine with the narrative, but even as a woke liberal I notice it at pretty well every commercial break over the last ten years.

    I can't believe someone as open minded as yourself would find it problematic either.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    darkage said:

    (reposted from previous thread)
    Sorry for going off topic but I wondered if people still use BT for their broadband. I have stuck with them, on the assumption that they would be no better than anyone else. But I have found them to be hard work. I had a problem with my router which means that it cuts out continually, I kept being told that I was imagining it or it was my computer that was at fault, I proved otherwise to them and they eventually sent an engineer around and it seemed to be fixed, only now the problems are starting up again, and I am stuck with another 9 months on my contract. The current situation is really bad because the WIFI is now so unreliable that I can't use it for work, mobile broadband is more reliable. I fear that I will need to go in to some kind of energy sapping consumer rights battle with BT. Am I just unfortunate or do other people experience/hear of these problems with BT?

    BT have been great for me.

    Avoid Virgin like the plague.
    I have never met someone with a good word to say about Virgin fibre/broadband.
    Virgin when it is great is utterly brilliant but far too often it is terrible and their customer services are even worse.

    One of the reasons I'm migrating from O2 is I know they'll infect O2's brilliant customer services.
    All companies are the same. Every service is great when things go well and appalling as soon as there is a problem. Not just ISPs but shops, banks, delivery services, everyone. The suppliers probably do not use their own service, and certainly not their own complaints procedure. Nothing is tested. Customer services consists of a badly-programmed chatbot and two bored housewives in a far-off country of which we know little.
    Nah, I had a few issues with O2 and BT in the past, they were magnificent.

    Ditto Lloyds and Coutts.

    Also big shoutout to Sky when I had a faulty box or two.
    Do you really bank with NatWest?
    I used to bank with RBS and was upgraded to Coutts.
    I hope you don’t still bank there.

    If you are going for a vanity chequebook at least be classy and work with Childs or Drummonds
    I don't have a chequebook anymore. No point, it is one those areas that is a cause of a lot of frauds and scams.

    I'm with Lloyds Mayfair these days.

    I know, I know, the shame, the shame, but I have to show my working class credentials somehow.
    I banked with Lloyds when I was a teenager 😂
    Banking snobbery is pretty damn sad,.
    Quite. Everyone knows you should keep quiet about banking with Coutts.
    I was in the same class at school as the son of the then CEO of Coutts
    My Dad’s first proper job was as executive assistant to David Money Coutts
    Well I knew I still could not outsnob you Charles!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    Leon said:

    Can't believe I've just seen a blatantly mixed-race couple on a commercial British TV advert

    I know - and I celebrate - the fact that race relations have vastly improved in the UK in recent decades. We are all Brits. But open miscegenation, apparently celebrated in a TV advertisement?

    Thank God it seems to be a rarity. I haven't seen any others. Perhaps it is just a one-off, and no cause for alarm

    Who are you? Austin Powers.

    I am fine with the narrative, but even as a woke liberal I notice it at pretty well every commercial break over the last ten years.

    I can't believe someone as open minded as yourself would find it problematic either.
    Well, somebody fell for it @Leon
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    Carnyx said:

    Just come across this which is pertinent to the debate about the university at Coventry:

    https://twitter.com/NoContextBrits/status/1468869733990780928

    My admissions tutor colleague tells of a recruitment fair in Africa where every single UK university had found something to number 1 about, e.g. student services, most hot teenage girls, drunkest students etc.
    His other favourite story was a welsh university using a picture of the Severn bridge, and the lovely land beyond, on all their advertising, prospectus etc. He pointed out they were showing the English side... It led to much pulping of prospecti etc.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Leon said:

    Can't believe I've just seen a blatantly mixed-race couple on a commercial British TV advert

    I know - and I celebrate - the fact that race relations have vastly improved in the UK in recent decades. We are all Brits. But open miscegenation, apparently celebrated in a TV advertisement?

    Thank God it seems to be a rarity. I haven't seen any others. Perhaps it is just a one-off, and no cause for alarm

    Who are you? Austin Powers.

    I am fine with the narrative, but even as a woke liberal I notice it at pretty well every commercial break over the last ten years.

    I can't believe someone as open minded as yourself would find it problematic either.
    Well, somebody fell for it @Leon
    Oh right, ironic comedy. Cool!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    Leon said:

    Can't believe I've just seen a blatantly mixed-race couple on a commercial British TV advert

    I know - and I celebrate - the fact that race relations have vastly improved in the UK in recent decades. We are all Brits. But open miscegenation, apparently celebrated in a TV advertisement?

    Thank God it seems to be a rarity. I haven't seen any others. Perhaps it is just a one-off, and no cause for alarm

    Who are you? Austin Powers.

    I am fine with the narrative, but even as a woke liberal I notice it at pretty well every commercial break over the last ten years.

    I can't believe someone as open minded as yourself would find it problematic either.
    Well, somebody fell for it @Leon
    Oh right, ironic comedy. Cool!
    Ironic for sure but I think 'comedy' is stetching the definition somewhat.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,898
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    There's been a steady fall in deaths from a peak of 173 at the start of Nov to slightly below 100 a day now (Moving averages of course).
    Must have been to the booster rollout as cases have been rising throughout

    Yeah, thete is what I think is a really obvious booster effect to the age segregated stats. The priority groups fall off in the stats as the booster programme rolls out.

    Without boosters the exit "wave" would have got pretty nasty even without Omicron.
    I see you read from the same good books as St Bart.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279

    HYUFD said:

    Oh ****! Maxwell open to cutting a deal to reduce her sentence.

    Lord Mandelson latest famous name alleged to be in Epstein's black book

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1476615510598946824?s=20
    Wasn’t the alleged modus operandi to have influential people to ‘parties’, where they got lucky with attractive young women, who sadly turned out to be under age, and oh dear, there are photos? Would that work with Mandelson?
    Kevin Spacey also allegedly was on Epstein's plane trips, I doubt he would have gone if it was just ladies involved

    https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity-life/jeffrey-epsteins-pilot-reveals-names-of-hollywood-stars-who-flew-on-his-plane/news-story/fe606910578101232f7b89fdc363c724
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,362
    Andy_JS said:
    Great to hear him saying "remarkably good news...."
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    It is indeed. Thank you.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IshmaelZ said:

    Charles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    darkage said:

    (reposted from previous thread)
    Sorry for going off topic but I wondered if people still use BT for their broadband. I have stuck with them, on the assumption that they would be no better than anyone else. But I have found them to be hard work. I had a problem with my router which means that it cuts out continually, I kept being told that I was imagining it or it was my computer that was at fault, I proved otherwise to them and they eventually sent an engineer around and it seemed to be fixed, only now the problems are starting up again, and I am stuck with another 9 months on my contract. The current situation is really bad because the WIFI is now so unreliable that I can't use it for work, mobile broadband is more reliable. I fear that I will need to go in to some kind of energy sapping consumer rights battle with BT. Am I just unfortunate or do other people experience/hear of these problems with BT?

    BT have been great for me.

    Avoid Virgin like the plague.
    I have never met someone with a good word to say about Virgin fibre/broadband.
    Virgin when it is great is utterly brilliant but far too often it is terrible and their customer services are even worse.

    One of the reasons I'm migrating from O2 is I know they'll infect O2's brilliant customer services.
    All companies are the same. Every service is great when things go well and appalling as soon as there is a problem. Not just ISPs but shops, banks, delivery services, everyone. The suppliers probably do not use their own service, and certainly not their own complaints procedure. Nothing is tested. Customer services consists of a badly-programmed chatbot and two bored housewives in a far-off country of which we know little.
    Nah, I had a few issues with O2 and BT in the past, they were magnificent.

    Ditto Lloyds and Coutts.

    Also big shoutout to Sky when I had a faulty box or two.
    Do you really bank with NatWest?
    I used to bank with RBS and was upgraded to Coutts.
    I hope you don’t still bank there.

    If you are going for a vanity chequebook at least be classy and work with Childs or Drummonds
    Friend of mine was nearly turned down by the chairman of one of those twattish niche banks the other day because he was caught behind in the Eton Winchester match 1979 and didn't walk.
    How very childish of them both
    Yeah

    Can't remember name of bank. Began with H.
    If it was the bank you are implying your story doesn’t stack up. The chairman is a former civil servant and not involved into client matters
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    Carnyx said:

    Just come across this which is pertinent to the debate about the university at Coventry:

    https://twitter.com/NoContextBrits/status/1468869733990780928

    Somehow they get away with it a little bit more than if they'd said, say, top 11.

    They could have said top dozen, I guess.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Within the lottery of holiday stats I am willing to stick my neck out and say London has actually peaked.

    Blimey! Coming from you that means a lot. I vividly remember your excellent early works on weekly cycles and hubris!
    I reserve the right to reverse ferret on this in about 8 days time.
    I'm not convinced the London data is particularly meaningful right now - London empties out for Christmas, as people go back to family. So the population is artificially depressed, and a lot of positive tests relating to Londoners will have been recorded across the rest of the country instead.

    I'm expecting the rest of the country to catch up pretty quickly, due to pre-Christmas travel spreading the virus more evenly around, and it's possible we'll see a second London peak in early January, caused by Londoners picking up the virus over Christmas and then taking it back home with them.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    Carnyx said:

    Just come across this which is pertinent to the debate about the university at Coventry:

    https://twitter.com/NoContextBrits/status/1468869733990780928

    My admissions tutor colleague tells of a recruitment fair in Africa where every single UK university had found something to number 1 about, e.g. student services, most hot teenage girls, drunkest students etc.
    His other favourite story was a welsh university using a picture of the Severn bridge, and the lovely land beyond, on all their advertising, prospectus etc. He pointed out they were showing the English side... It led to much pulping of prospecti etc.
    Aust Cliff? Now that is pretty distinctive ...!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813
    rcs1000 said:

    jonny83 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Are we still not counting re-infections?

    It looks like in January they will start to add them to the data/be included in the figures:

    Source:

    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1473584973676527617?t=Jdn9OIByp7FlcFslo8MhGw&s=19

    If they were included in the data right now I would imagine the real figures would be eye watering...
    I suspect close to 10% of the UK population have Omicron/Covid right now.
    The Zoe app doctor was reported as stating earlier today that he thought three-quarters of all the people in the UK currently experiencing common cold symptoms actually had symptomatic Covid-19.

    I think that the most recent ONS infection survey figures had the case rate in London as 1 in 20, and they're compiled a couple of weeks in arrears. 10% therefore seems a plausible guess for the capital, but the country as a whole might be closer to 5%...?

    Regardless, the current 7-day case rate for cases confirmed by test is now 1.2%, double the peak in last years disastrous January death wave, and I think we can all be confident that the actual total case rate is a great deal higher than that.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    GIN1138 said:

    They used to say where there's muck there's money but these days they say where there's money there's Mandy ;)

    Wasnt he known to the black book owner as Petey.

    Not sure it's the same big hearted Socialist we all love though
    It could be mistaken identity. I burned all my Chris Rea records when I heard he financed the Conservative Party. It was years later that he denied it and said he was mistaken for a South Yorkshire (?) Businessman.
  • rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    If anybody is interested, my profile picture is a clipped part of a painting an AI created for me after being given the title "the dispatched child".....the machines are coming for all of us.

    Seems to be borrowing a lot from Rembrandt
    You can ask it to "borrow" the style from lots of different artists across a wide range of styles. In this case I didn't ask any more than a painting that matches the title.

    The zoomed out view is this young person sitting in a dim room with small amount of natural light coming from an unseen window bouncing off one of the walls.
    Could we get a link please?
    DMed you.
  • Spain reports 161,688 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record
  • FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
  • This going to get spoofed...

    The 🇬🇧 2021 Presidency of the #G7 is coming to an end. As 🇩🇪 takes over the G7 Presidency for 2022, here are some of the things the G7 has achieved this year.

    https://twitter.com/G7/status/1476569744060915721?s=20
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    I hope everybody is supporting Burnley tonight

    Saudi United needs all the help it can get
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Just come across this which is pertinent to the debate about the university at Coventry:

    https://twitter.com/NoContextBrits/status/1468869733990780928

    My admissions tutor colleague tells of a recruitment fair in Africa where every single UK university had found something to number 1 about, e.g. student services, most hot teenage girls, drunkest students etc.
    His other favourite story was a welsh university using a picture of the Severn bridge, and the lovely land beyond, on all their advertising, prospectus etc. He pointed out they were showing the English side... It led to much pulping of prospecti etc.
    Aust Cliff? Now that is pretty distinctive ...!
    Apparently a great photo too. A sad waste. They should have sold it to Bristol.
  • Leon said:

    Can't believe I've just seen a blatantly mixed-race couple on a commercial British TV advert

    I know - and I celebrate - the fact that race relations have vastly improved in the UK in recent decades. We are all Brits. But open miscegenation, apparently celebrated in a TV advertisement?

    Thank God it seems to be a rarity. I haven't seen any others. Perhaps it is just a one-off, and no cause for alarm

    Who are you? Austin Powers.

    I am fine with the narrative, but even as a woke liberal I notice it at pretty well every commercial break over the last ten years.

    I can't believe someone as open minded as yourself would find it problematic either.
    problem is black part of couple highly likely to be unvaccinated
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    londoneye said:

    Leon said:

    Can't believe I've just seen a blatantly mixed-race couple on a commercial British TV advert

    I know - and I celebrate - the fact that race relations have vastly improved in the UK in recent decades. We are all Brits. But open miscegenation, apparently celebrated in a TV advertisement?

    Thank God it seems to be a rarity. I haven't seen any others. Perhaps it is just a one-off, and no cause for alarm

    Who are you? Austin Powers.

    I am fine with the narrative, but even as a woke liberal I notice it at pretty well every commercial break over the last ten years.

    I can't believe someone as open minded as yourself would find it problematic either.
    problem is black part of couple highly likely to be unvaccinated
    Do you not believe in the use of capital letters, even with your capital based nom de plume?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929
    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    jonny83 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Are we still not counting re-infections?

    It looks like in January they will start to add them to the data/be included in the figures:

    Source:

    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1473584973676527617?t=Jdn9OIByp7FlcFslo8MhGw&s=19

    If they were included in the data right now I would imagine the real figures would be eye watering...
    I suspect close to 10% of the UK population have Omicron/Covid right now.
    The Zoe app doctor was reported as stating earlier today that he thought three-quarters of all the people in the UK currently experiencing common cold symptoms actually had symptomatic Covid-19.

    I think that the most recent ONS infection survey figures had the case rate in London as 1 in 20, and they're compiled a couple of weeks in arrears. 10% therefore seems a plausible guess for the capital, but the country as a whole might be closer to 5%...?

    Regardless, the current 7-day case rate for cases confirmed by test is now 1.2%, double the peak in last years disastrous January death wave, and I think we can all be confident that the actual total case rate is a great deal higher than that.
    I'm looking at the South Africa numbers, and using them as a model. Simply, the South African wave took less than a month from Nov 22 (312 cases) to a peak with 37,000 cases (more than a hundred-fold increase) on Dec 12. That's three weeks.

    This means one of two things:

    Either (a) there are a lot of cases that don't get picked up because to the vaxxed/previously infected, Omicron is usually just like a cold.

    Or (b) it turns out that voluntary social distancing can get R below 1 pretty sharpish.

    I suspect it is (a).

    In which case, one would expect the UK numbers to start heading down in a week or 10 days.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929
    londoneye said:

    Leon said:

    Can't believe I've just seen a blatantly mixed-race couple on a commercial British TV advert

    I know - and I celebrate - the fact that race relations have vastly improved in the UK in recent decades. We are all Brits. But open miscegenation, apparently celebrated in a TV advertisement?

    Thank God it seems to be a rarity. I haven't seen any others. Perhaps it is just a one-off, and no cause for alarm

    Who are you? Austin Powers.

    I am fine with the narrative, but even as a woke liberal I notice it at pretty well every commercial break over the last ten years.

    I can't believe someone as open minded as yourself would find it problematic either.
    problem is black part of couple highly likely to be unvaccinated
    Define "highly likely"?

    Vaccination rates among Black britons are well over 50%, even if they lag their paler bretheren. It's also important to remember different age profiles: White Brits are more likely to be older.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Completely O/T Anyone tried any of these board games?

    https://twitter.com/JamesHuntrods/status/1476524450455724035?s=20

    Concordia
    Innovations
    Lonely Bears
    Trekking the World
    Barenpark
    Wingspan
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,461
    edited December 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    jonny83 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Are we still not counting re-infections?

    It looks like in January they will start to add them to the data/be included in the figures:

    Source:

    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1473584973676527617?t=Jdn9OIByp7FlcFslo8MhGw&s=19

    If they were included in the data right now I would imagine the real figures would be eye watering...
    I suspect close to 10% of the UK population have Omicron/Covid right now.
    The Zoe app doctor was reported as stating earlier today that he thought three-quarters of all the people in the UK currently experiencing common cold symptoms actually had symptomatic Covid-19.

    I think that the most recent ONS infection survey figures had the case rate in London as 1 in 20, and they're compiled a couple of weeks in arrears. 10% therefore seems a plausible guess for the capital, but the country as a whole might be closer to 5%...?

    Regardless, the current 7-day case rate for cases confirmed by test is now 1.2%, double the peak in last years disastrous January death wave, and I think we can all be confident that the actual total case rate is a great deal higher than that.
    I'm looking at the South Africa numbers, and using them as a model. Simply, the South African wave took less than a month from Nov 22 (312 cases) to a peak with 37,000 cases (more than a hundred-fold increase) on Dec 12. That's three weeks.

    This means one of two things:

    Either (a) there are a lot of cases that don't get picked up because to the vaxxed/previously infected, Omicron is usually just like a cold.

    Or (b) it turns out that voluntary social distancing can get R below 1 pretty sharpish.

    I suspect it is (a).

    In which case, one would expect the UK numbers to start heading down in a week or 10 days.
    Is there even any evidence that South Africans are, or can even employ that much, voluntary social distancing in significant parts of the community?

    The authorities didn't bring in any restrictions at all right? So I presume everybody was still going to work as normal, e.g those from the townships, getting on the packed buses, as many in South Africa have to do just to get by.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    londoneye said:

    Leon said:

    Can't believe I've just seen a blatantly mixed-race couple on a commercial British TV advert

    I know - and I celebrate - the fact that race relations have vastly improved in the UK in recent decades. We are all Brits. But open miscegenation, apparently celebrated in a TV advertisement?

    Thank God it seems to be a rarity. I haven't seen any others. Perhaps it is just a one-off, and no cause for alarm

    Who are you? Austin Powers.

    I am fine with the narrative, but even as a woke liberal I notice it at pretty well every commercial break over the last ten years.

    I can't believe someone as open minded as yourself would find it problematic either.
    problem is black part of couple highly likely to be unvaccinated
    Do you not believe in the use of capital letters, even with your capital based nom de plume?
    Capitals are only available with the mark2 PutinBot
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813
    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    It is remarkable, given both that the problems identified with the Union are legion and that hardly anyone in Scotland seems to have anything good to say about the British Government, that no stable majority can be found in Scottish public opinion for dissolution. Somewhere in the ballpark of half the population doesn't want to go - and not even the deaths of large numbers of elderly Unionists since 2014, and the addition to the electoral roll of large numbers of independence-leaning youth in their place, have swung the argument decisively.

    Why is that?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2021
    Incidentally I mentioned previoisly that I thought Omicron might well be the saviour of the southern United States. I hope i am right.

    They were tee'd up to have a horrible winter (massive self backslapping about 'defeating' the eye watteringly horrendous summer wave) but now Omicron has rapidly pushed out Delta tonpants wettingly massive numbers. One hospital group in texas is going to have to recaliberate it's gauge metrics as thebl arrow is about to go 360 degrees round the circle for infections.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,898
    Does NZ still have the travel corridor with Australia ?
    The rates are somewhat err... divergent now.
  • BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    rcs1000 said:

    londoneye said:

    Leon said:

    Can't believe I've just seen a blatantly mixed-race couple on a commercial British TV advert

    I know - and I celebrate - the fact that race relations have vastly improved in the UK in recent decades. We are all Brits. But open miscegenation, apparently celebrated in a TV advertisement?

    Thank God it seems to be a rarity. I haven't seen any others. Perhaps it is just a one-off, and no cause for alarm

    Who are you? Austin Powers.

    I am fine with the narrative, but even as a woke liberal I notice it at pretty well every commercial break over the last ten years.

    I can't believe someone as open minded as yourself would find it problematic either.
    problem is black part of couple highly likely to be unvaccinated
    Define "highly likely"?

    Vaccination rates among Black britons are well over 50%, even if they lag their paler bretheren. It's also important to remember different age profiles: White Brits are more likely to be older.
    ...and in the deciles of less deprivation.
  • Posted without comment.

    MAIL: ‘Andrew should be quaking in his boots’
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1476678617606336518?s=20
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Completely O/T Anyone tried any of these board games?

    https://twitter.com/JamesHuntrods/status/1476524450455724035?s=20

    Concordia
    Innovations
    Lonely Bears
    Trekking the World
    Barenpark
    Wingspan

    Not played them but Barenpark and Wingspan are very well reviewed. Concordia seems more of an accquired taste.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    .
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
    I am quite happy for you to have your English National Parliament. But wouldn't regional ones be less cumbersome?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929

    Completely O/T Anyone tried any of these board games?

    https://twitter.com/JamesHuntrods/status/1476524450455724035?s=20

    Concordia
    Innovations
    Lonely Bears
    Trekking the World
    Barenpark
    Wingspan

    My friends are all obsessed with The Bloody Inn.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,898
    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    jonny83 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Are we still not counting re-infections?

    It looks like in January they will start to add them to the data/be included in the figures:

    Source:

    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1473584973676527617?t=Jdn9OIByp7FlcFslo8MhGw&s=19

    If they were included in the data right now I would imagine the real figures would be eye watering...
    I suspect close to 10% of the UK population have Omicron/Covid right now.
    The Zoe app doctor was reported as stating earlier today that he thought three-quarters of all the people in the UK currently experiencing common cold symptoms actually had symptomatic Covid-19.

    I think that the most recent ONS infection survey figures had the case rate in London as 1 in 20, and they're compiled a couple of weeks in arrears. 10% therefore seems a plausible guess for the capital, but the country as a whole might be closer to 5%...?

    Regardless, the current 7-day case rate for cases confirmed by test is now 1.2%, double the peak in last years disastrous January death wave, and I think we can all be confident that the actual total case rate is a great deal higher than that.
    I'm looking at the South Africa numbers, and using them as a model. Simply, the South African wave took less than a month from Nov 22 (312 cases) to a peak with 37,000 cases (more than a hundred-fold increase) on Dec 12. That's three weeks.

    This means one of two things:

    Either (a) there are a lot of cases that don't get picked up because to the vaxxed/previously infected, Omicron is usually just like a cold.

    Or (b) it turns out that voluntary social distancing can get R below 1 pretty sharpish.

    I suspect it is (a).

    In which case, one would expect the UK numbers to start heading down in a week or 10 days.
    You're probably right on South Africa, but it completely changed it's testing regimen on christmas day. They're testing far too few people to have any idea of general prevalence I think.
  • HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
    I would love to see England having her own parliament.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,425
    pigeon said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    It is remarkable, given both that the problems identified with the Union are legion and that hardly anyone in Scotland seems to have anything good to say about the British Government, that no stable majority can be found in Scottish public opinion for dissolution. Somewhere in the ballpark of half the population doesn't want to go - and not even the deaths of large numbers of elderly Unionists since 2014, and the addition to the electoral roll of large numbers of independence-leaning youth in their place, have swung the argument decisively.

    Why is that?
    Brexit. I know a few younger people who have clocked that they are similar, in some respect.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279

    .

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
    I am quite happy for you to have your English National Parliament. But wouldn't regional ones be less cumbersome?
    Why should England be broken up into regions? Ontario for example is also far bigger than most other Canadian provinces but still has its own parliament.

    It seems the only time England is allowed to exist is on the sports field (excluding the Olympics)
  • I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited December 2021
    This made me smile "Michael Gove ,Minister for levelling up, questioned over why £330,000 of taxpayer's money spent to fill former Conservative peer's driveway potholes"

    https://news.sky.com/story/michael-gove-questioned-over-why-163330000-of-taxpayers-money-spent-to-fill-former-conservative-peers-driveway-potholes-12505847
  • HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
    The FLSOJ has spoken. I believe his word is law in HYUFD world?

    “We have an England-only parliament. It’s in Westminster. It’s been there for a long time. I’m not disposed to create another parliament.”
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
    The FLSOJ has spoken. I believe his word is law in HYUFD world?

    “We have an England-only parliament. It’s in Westminster. It’s been there for a long time. I’m not disposed to create another parliament.”
    Wrong. In 1950, 1964 and February 1974 England voted Tory but got a Labour government at Westminster.

    In 2010 and 2017 most English MPs were Tory but most Westminster MPs were not
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Personally I see no issue with an English parliament, but I think you'd have to substantially change how Westminster/the UK Parliament works for it to make any sense.
  • HYUFD said:

    .

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
    I am quite happy for you to have your English National Parliament. But wouldn't regional ones be less cumbersome?
    Why should England be broken up into regions? Ontario for example is also far bigger than most other Canadian provinces but still has its own parliament.

    It seems the only time England is allowed to exist is on the sports field (excluding the Olympics)
    In Canada, there is a parliament for Ontario as well as an overall parliament at Ottawa.

    We could have an English National Parliament in the House of Lords Chamber and a UK parliament in the House of Commons.

    :smiley:
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    HYUFD said:

    .

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
    I am quite happy for you to have your English National Parliament. But wouldn't regional ones be less cumbersome?
    Why should England be broken up into regions? Ontario for example is also far bigger than most other Canadian provinces but still has its own parliament.

    It seems the only time England is allowed to exist is on the sports field (excluding the Olympics)
    Have whatever you want. How about elections to your English Parliament based on a proportional scheme?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:

    This made me smile "Michael Gove ,Minister for levelling up, questioned over why £330,000 of taxpayer's money spent to fill former Conservative peer's driveway potholes"

    https://news.sky.com/story/michael-gove-questioned-over-why-163330000-of-taxpayers-money-spent-to-fill-former-conservative-peers-driveway-potholes-12505847

    Because there is an excellent museum at the end of the shared drive and the potholes were limiting public access
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279

    I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?

    Not if Boris and Truss trigger Article 16 a few weeks before polling day which I believe is a possibility.

    That would then collapse the TUV vote back to the DUP
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Has the Tesla recall passed comment here today?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,461
    edited December 2021
    Alistair said:

    Has the Tesla recall passed comment here today?

    Just 500k cars, small beans....is I presume what Elon will say.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    HYUFD said:

    .

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
    I am quite happy for you to have your English National Parliament. But wouldn't regional ones be less cumbersome?
    Why should England be broken up into regions? Ontario for example is also far bigger than most other Canadian provinces but still has its own parliament.

    It seems the only time England is allowed to exist is on the sports field (excluding the Olympics)
    Yes, we're such victims
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
    The FLSOJ has spoken. I believe his word is law in HYUFD world?

    “We have an England-only parliament. It’s in Westminster. It’s been there for a long time. I’m not disposed to create another parliament.”
    Wrong. In 1950, 1964 and February 1974 England voted Tory but got a Labour government at Westminster.

    In 2010 and 2017 most English MPs were Tory but most Westminster MPs were not
    Golly.
    That's once you have denied your saviour Boris, let's see if we can get it up to three.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    HYUFD said:

    .

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
    I am quite happy for you to have your English National Parliament. But wouldn't regional ones be less cumbersome?
    Why should England be broken up into regions? Ontario for example is also far bigger than most other Canadian provinces but still has its own parliament.

    It seems the only time England is allowed to exist is on the sports field (excluding the Olympics)
    Ontario isn't a great example really. There isn't any Federation anywhere which has one of its units as 84% of the population.
    The problem with regional Parliaments is that some have a definite regional identity.
    The others think they actually ARE proper England.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813

    .

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
    I am quite happy for you to have your English National Parliament. But wouldn't regional ones be less cumbersome?
    The problems with regional government in England (as distinct from local government) are well known: the regions would be mostly artificial, people don't particularly want regional government, and from my own POV I see no value in Balkanising what is, after all, quite a small country in geographic terms into a load of cantons all with their own separate domestic policies, civic institutions and laws. It's unnecessary.

    The easiest way to reform the Union, so as to resolve all these problems, is to get rid of it. But England doesn't devote any thought to this matter because it's over 8/10ths of the Union to begin with, and none of the other constituent parts, for whom the matter of secession is vastly more important, currently wants to go. The alternative of an English Parliament is also a non-starter, firstly because no Tory or Labour leader wants to have to choose between being English First Minister and British Prime Minister when they can play with the whole train set; and secondly because most Unionists are frightened that the English Government would end up overshadowing the British one, and it wouldn't take very long for an ENP to appear on the scene and bulldoze the whole edifice from the inside out. So it looks like we'll have to make do and mend for the foreseeable.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    pigeon said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    It is remarkable, given both that the problems identified with the Union are legion and that hardly anyone in Scotland seems to have anything good to say about the British Government, that no stable majority can be found in Scottish public opinion for dissolution. Somewhere in the ballpark of half the population doesn't want to go - and not even the deaths of large numbers of elderly Unionists since 2014, and the addition to the electoral roll of large numbers of independence-leaning youth in their place, have swung the argument decisively.

    Why is that?
    On the flipside, the 2014 referendum is some time ago now and the polling is even more of a coin toss now than the result of the day.

    Support is certainly edging up quite slowly, though that these days seems to be despite the SNP rather than because of the SNP, given they don't actually do a great deal of work to campaign for indy but merely present themselves as the vehicle for those who want it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    HYUFD said:

    .

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
    I am quite happy for you to have your English National Parliament. But wouldn't regional ones be less cumbersome?
    Why should England be broken up into regions? Ontario for example is also far bigger than most other Canadian provinces but still has its own parliament.

    It seems the only time England is allowed to exist is on the sports field (excluding the Olympics)
    In Canada, there is a parliament for Ontario as well as an overall parliament at Ottawa.

    We could have an English National Parliament in the House of Lords Chamber and a UK parliament in the House of Commons.

    :smiley:
    The Ontario Parliament is in the Capital.
    Toronto.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    GIN1138 said:

    Good evening PB

    I'm currently nibbling on a Jacobs cream cracker with some Red Leicester and Stilton and have got a glass of port on the side.

    Can I say I'm having a cheese and wine? :D

    Only if you have your suit on?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    This made me smile "Michael Gove ,Minister for levelling up, questioned over why £330,000 of taxpayer's money spent to fill former Conservative peer's driveway potholes"

    https://news.sky.com/story/michael-gove-questioned-over-why-163330000-of-taxpayers-money-spent-to-fill-former-conservative-peers-driveway-potholes-12505847

    Because there is an excellent museum at the end of the shared drive and the potholes were limiting public access
    I never realised it was all about levelling up the potholes.
  • Some marked distortions in the UK statistics for Covid cases over the last few days, in terms of the ratio of PCR to LFT positives:

    https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1476675000136519685

    Probably not surprising, but further evidence that you really need to treat figures over the Xmas/New Year period with enormous caution.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    This made me smile "Michael Gove ,Minister for levelling up, questioned over why £330,000 of taxpayer's money spent to fill former Conservative peer's driveway potholes"

    https://news.sky.com/story/michael-gove-questioned-over-why-163330000-of-taxpayers-money-spent-to-fill-former-conservative-peers-driveway-potholes-12505847

    Because there is an excellent museum at the end of the shared drive and the potholes were limiting public access
    Doesn't change the fact that he owned the drive, and the museum doesn't.
  • HYUFD said:

    I note that the next Stormont election is just around the corner, and SF have held a polling lead for two years now.

    Are we about to see first pro-reunification FM?

    Not if Boris and Truss trigger Article 16 a few weeks before polling day which I believe is a possibility.

    That would then collapse the TUV vote back to the DUP
    Boris propping up the DUP dafties? I thought the UUP were meant to be the Tory favourites?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    HYUFD said:

    .

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
    I am quite happy for you to have your English National Parliament. But wouldn't regional ones be less cumbersome?
    Why should England be broken up into regions? Ontario for example is also far bigger than most other Canadian provinces but still has its own parliament.

    It seems the only time England is allowed to exist is on the sports field (excluding the Olympics)
    The population of Ontario is ~38% of the population of Canada. The population of England is ~84% of the population of the UK. The comparison actually makes opposite the point that you intend. Having a devolved Parliament for 5/6ths of the Federal state would be an absurdity. A complete waste of time. You'd be missing the opportunity to devolve power away from London.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
    Because it is Conservative Party policy not to have an English parliament, apart of course from the one there already is at Westminster.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited December 2021
    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    This made me smile "Michael Gove ,Minister for levelling up, questioned over why £330,000 of taxpayer's money spent to fill former Conservative peer's driveway potholes"

    https://news.sky.com/story/michael-gove-questioned-over-why-163330000-of-taxpayers-money-spent-to-fill-former-conservative-peers-driveway-potholes-12505847

    Because there is an excellent museum at the end of the shared drive and the potholes were limiting public access
    Doesn't change the fact that he owned the drive, and the museum doesn't.
    I think it just shows that the civil servants were a bit over-literal in interpreting the 'levelling' bit of 'levelling up', so that this was the first application they'd had which seemed to meet the criteria.

    Edit: I see that @Benpointer got there first!
  • BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
  • BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    'It's Just Something We Got To Do,' Drivers Wait Hours In Cars For COVID-19 Tests In Brockton

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/its-just-something-we-got-to-do-drivers-wait-hours-in-cars-for-covid-19-tests-in-brockton/vi-AASht51
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Completely O/T Anyone tried any of these board games?

    https://twitter.com/JamesHuntrods/status/1476524450455724035?s=20

    Concordia
    Innovations
    Lonely Bears
    Trekking the World
    Barenpark
    Wingspan

    Yes, Concordia and Wingspan
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
    Because it is Conservative Party policy not to have an English parliament, apart of course from the one there already is at Westminster.
    It is Conservative party policy to have English votes for English laws though.

    If and when we go back into opposition within a few years I expect party policy would shift towards an English parliament as the first and quickest route back to power before building a UK majority again
  • Has there even been any virus, any time in history, in any species, which has spread as fast over the whole world as omicron?
  • dixiedean said:

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
    The more the merrier. 👍

    Rip off the bandage, have the virus burn through a vaccinated population and if anyone's unvaccinated then they can claim their Darwin Award on the way out.

    My case seems to be nothing more than a common cold and I'm glad I've got it now while triple vaccinated rather than when immunity has waned or pre-vaccines.
  • HYUFD said:

    It is Conservative party policy to have English votes for English laws though.

    Err, not any more:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57828406
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
    Because it is Conservative Party policy not to have an English parliament, apart of course from the one there already is at Westminster.
    It is Conservative party policy to have English votes for English laws though.

    If and when we go back into opposition within a few years I expect party policy would shift towards an English parliament as the first and quickest route back to power before building a UK majority again
    So. It's all about the interests of the Tory Party then?
  • dixiedean said:

    BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 500,000 new coronavirus cases, with some states yet to report

    Go big or go home....

    "With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst single days of last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may still fall short of describing the true toll of the Delta and Omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays."

    NY Times
    Way to go. USA. Number One.
    relative to the population they have much fewer cases than us....and this in a more unvaccinated population
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279

    HYUFD said:

    .

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Those like me who are interested in questions of "What does the Union mean and why bother with it?", will find this article and thread well worth the read.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1476138261814857728

    Yes, he’s on the sane wing of the Unionist movement, an increasingly insignificant sect.

    “If muscular unionism changes the basis of British government in the way it intends, where is the political home for those outside England who are comfortable with complex and multiple identities, and prefer a strong degree of national autonomy within a multinational state? (The remaining centre ground, such as it is, seems increasingly focused on developing an impractical and electorally unviable federal model for the UK: impractical because England is too big for such a model, and unviable because England will never vote for it.)”

    I love it whenever folk (eg Gordon Brown) wibble on about federalism. Never disturb an enemy while they’re in the middle of making a mistake.
    So it is fine for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own parliaments within the UK but not fine for England to have its own parliament? If we ever get a Labour led government without a majority in England that will be a major issue in England
    I am quite happy for you to have your English National Parliament. But wouldn't regional ones be less cumbersome?
    Why should England be broken up into regions? Ontario for example is also far bigger than most other Canadian provinces but still has its own parliament.

    It seems the only time England is allowed to exist is on the sports field (excluding the Olympics)
    The population of Ontario is ~38% of the population of Canada. The population of England is ~84% of the population of the UK. The comparison actually makes opposite the point that you intend. Having a devolved Parliament for 5/6ths of the Federal state would be an absurdity. A complete waste of time. You'd be missing the opportunity to devolve power away from London.
    No it wouldn't, what difference does it make to Scotland or Wales whether England has its own parliament with equivalent powers to theirs whether England made up 1% of the UK, 84% or 99%?

    London has its own Mayor and assembly too
  • Didn't get the memo:

    THE TIMES: No need for more Covid curbs, say NHS chiefs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1476686549966364676?s=20
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    Has there even been any virus, any time in history, in any species, which has spread as fast over the whole world as omicron?

    Probably not. It’s only in the last 50 years or so that we’ve had huge levels of air travel. The Black Death oozed it’s way through the isles.
This discussion has been closed.