Alongside thrillers, romantic comedies and dramas, Netflix in Russia will now let viewers tune into Kremlin propaganda after the country’s media watchdog ordered it to provide streaming of state television channels.
Roskomnadzor said Netflix would have to include 20 state TV channels among its list of films and series, including the Russian Orthodox Church’s channel Spas, which translates as “Saved”.
It will also be obliged to stream Russia 1, which broadcasts Moscow. Kremlin. Putin — a weekly TV show devoted to the president’s activities. TV Dozhd, an online opposition channel, has accused the programme of Soviet-style propaganda.
Netflix was added to Roskomnadzor’s list of “audio-visual services” this week. The register, created last year, requires streaming services with more than 100,000 daily users to also host major Russian TV channels.
An operation to remove the masts from a sunken cargo ship in the River Thames, containing 1,400 tonnes of unstable explosives onboard, will involve Royal Navy specialists.
It is believed that if the unexploded ordnance on the SS Richard Montgomery were triggered it could lead to the nearby oil and gas facilities in Sheerness being damaged, the Daily Telegraph reports.
What could possibly go wrong?
The list of ordnance is quite impressive:
This comprises the following items of ordnance:
286 × 2,000 lb (910 kg) high explosive bombs 4,439 × 1,000 lb (450 kg) bombs of various types 1,925 × 500 lb (230 kg) bombs 2,815 fragmentation bombs and bomb clusters Various explosive booster charges Various smoke bombs, including white phosphorus bombs Various pyrotechnic signals
The Tallboy that went off recently in Poland is 5000 kg.
Alongside thrillers, romantic comedies and dramas, Netflix in Russia will now let viewers tune into Kremlin propaganda after the country’s media watchdog ordered it to provide streaming of state television channels.
Roskomnadzor said Netflix would have to include 20 state TV channels among its list of films and series, including the Russian Orthodox Church’s channel Spas, which translates as “Saved”.
It will also be obliged to stream Russia 1, which broadcasts Moscow. Kremlin. Putin — a weekly TV show devoted to the president’s activities. TV Dozhd, an online opposition channel, has accused the programme of Soviet-style propaganda.
Netflix was added to Roskomnadzor’s list of “audio-visual services” this week. The register, created last year, requires streaming services with more than 100,000 daily users to also host major Russian TV channels.
Alongside thrillers, romantic comedies and dramas, Netflix in Russia will now let viewers tune into Kremlin propaganda after the country’s media watchdog ordered it to provide streaming of state television channels.
Roskomnadzor said Netflix would have to include 20 state TV channels among its list of films and series, including the Russian Orthodox Church’s channel Spas, which translates as “Saved”.
It will also be obliged to stream Russia 1, which broadcasts Moscow. Kremlin. Putin — a weekly TV show devoted to the president’s activities. TV Dozhd, an online opposition channel, has accused the programme of Soviet-style propaganda.
Netflix was added to Roskomnadzor’s list of “audio-visual services” this week. The register, created last year, requires streaming services with more than 100,000 daily users to also host major Russian TV channels.
Max must be playing this for likes/retweets and getting his early morning ‘up up with the Partridge’ slot noticed and a few more listeners and all power to his elbow for it.
The LD's don't have their major back. When was the last time you saw an LD holding forth in the media. I am on their email list and other than witless criticism of the government they have nothing to say about anything. All they are beneficiaries of voters anger with the government. Davey and Moran are probably wise to have no ideas and no policies at the present time.
The point has been made before that the LD's are suffering from being the 4th Party in Parliament. The Minister gets called; the Shadow gets called. Then the SNP spokesperson gets called. When Thorpe, Steel and Ashdown were Leaders of the Third Party they got called regularly, and, as they charismatic speakers, got reported. Davey can't get the same automatic coverage.
He's also not charismatic.
I'm not that convinced parliament matters that much. What the LDs want is something where they are distinct from the two big parties.
So, they had Iraq, for example.
Mana from heaven for them would be if the Conservatives (with Labour support) pushed through a lockdown in January. In that case, I wouldn't be surprised if they benefited enormously as opponents of that.
Alongside thrillers, romantic comedies and dramas, Netflix in Russia will now let viewers tune into Kremlin propaganda after the country’s media watchdog ordered it to provide streaming of state television channels.
Roskomnadzor said Netflix would have to include 20 state TV channels among its list of films and series, including the Russian Orthodox Church’s channel Spas, which translates as “Saved”.
It will also be obliged to stream Russia 1, which broadcasts Moscow. Kremlin. Putin — a weekly TV show devoted to the president’s activities. TV Dozhd, an online opposition channel, has accused the programme of Soviet-style propaganda.
Netflix was added to Roskomnadzor’s list of “audio-visual services” this week. The register, created last year, requires streaming services with more than 100,000 daily users to also host major Russian TV channels.
The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland
It's been interesting that HYUFD has been emphasising the good old shire way of life in recent months - I forget his exact expression but it's along the lines of (I paraphrase in my own words, so I apologise for getting the tone hoeplessly wrong) how right and proper it is having people who own lots of land and are the jolly old lord of the manor in charge of the local area to knuckle one's brows to, what? Slightly startling from him as there are not many country estates in Epping, still less Jane Austen bodicerippers filmed there, so maybe it is something CCHQ has been pushing.
I did suggest @HYUFD for poster most likely to appear in an Austen novel some years ago. @Charles demurred ISTR. PS. Austen wrote no bodicerippers. Nor was much of a fan of landed inheritance. As far as anyone can discern.
I don’t think I demurred.
But she was briefly (24 hours I think) engaged to her neighbour - who lived in the house I grew up in
What are the principal threats and opportunities facing Johnson's premiership in 2022?
I was thinking:
Opportunities: 1. Omicron might be the effective end of Covid, if mild and it becomes ubiquitous... 2. ...in which case the decision not to increase restrictions further could look inspired. 3. Having survived the Q4 scandals there might be a quiet period with no fresh scandals. 4. If a leadership challenge comes Johnson could see it off with votes to spare, so deferring any further challenge to 2023 at the earliest. 5. Some foreign event leads to a 'rally to the flag' boost for Johnson (I'm thinking Ukraine, but hopefully not).
Threats: 1. Omicron proves very nasty and Johnson's decision to avoid further restrictions looks misguided at best. 2. Further Covid variants extend the misery throughout 2022. 3. Energy price rises hit consumers hard. 4. Supply issues come to the fore as the new EU trade regimes kicks in. 5. The NI rises land badly with the public. 6. Further hitherto unrevealed Johnson scandals emerge. 7. Major financial crash sparked by Evergreen/Ukraine/something else. 8. Tory MPs don't recover their faith in Johnson as a winner after an extended period of bad polls.
I am sure there are others on both sides of the account. Thoughts anyone?
3 and 5 are the biggest threats to Johnson I suspect. I think 8 will be, if it happens, a consequence of any combination of 1-6.
5. The foreign event most likely to boost Boris is England winning the World Cup in December. And that is after what might be a summer made for Boris's boosterism, with the Platinum Jubilee in June before Emma wins Wimbledon a month later leading up to the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham.
Boris's problems lie in the first half of the year, which, by the way, is not very far off. First is the possible return of Wallpapergate with Lord Geidt making noises off about being "misled" by Boris, and the strong possibility that Kathryn Stone, the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner, weighs in and might even suspend Boris from Parliament, which will create a constitutional innovation one way or the other. That is why Operation Save Owen Paterson was really aimed at neutering the PSC.
That is without known unknowns like HMQ's mortality and the next Covid variant.
The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland
It's been interesting that HYUFD has been emphasising the good old shire way of life in recent months - I forget his exact expression but it's along the lines of (I paraphrase in my own words, so I apologise for getting the tone hoeplessly wrong) how right and proper it is having people who own lots of land and are the jolly old lord of the manor in charge of the local area to knuckle one's brows to, what? Slightly startling from him as there are not many country estates in Epping, still less Jane Austen bodicerippers filmed there, so maybe it is something CCHQ has been pushing.
I did suggest @HYUFD for poster most likely to appear in an Austen novel some years ago. @Charles demurred ISTR. PS. Austen wrote no bodicerippers. Nor was much of a fan of landed inheritance. As far as anyone can discern.
I don’t think I demurred.
But she was briefly (24 hours I think) engaged to her neighbour - who lived in the house I grew up in
Alton? Very nice place. A friend lived there - amused himself by showing me where Fanny Adams was murdered, down at the bottom of his garden.
Manydown - albeit I grew up in the dower house rather than the main park which accidentally burnt to the ground a few months before its grade 1 listing was going to come into force
- ”… there are many constituencies where that level of anti-CON tactical voting could be decisive.”
Especially in Scotland.
All 6 Scottish Conservative seats (5 after boundary changes) are susceptible to even modest anti-CON tactical voting.
I don't see anyway the Tories have any Scottish seats at the next election/
What if more people vote for them in a Scottish constituency than any of their opponents?
I could see them winning a seat under that scenario.
(Non facetiously, I think they'll win the border seats again.)
My current prediction is they'll win 2 in Scotland. The anti-Johnson tide will be somewhat held back by anti-SNP tactical voting. When it comes down to it some people who hate both Johnson and the SNP will stick with Johnson as the lesser of two weevils.
On topic, OGH is - I'm sure - completely correct that Labour voters are going to be more prepared to vote tactically in 2024.
But it is worth noting that this will probably only result in a fairly small list of LibDem gains. Let's assume the following:
(1) The Conservative vote in a seat falls by 10% (2) If the Labour Party is more than 10 points behind the LibDems, then half the Labour vote goes to the LDs.
The second assumption is to deal with seats that are three-way marginals. And, of course, this analysis does not deal with the boundary changes which will make encouraging tactical voting harder for the LDs.
Together, these look like a fairly sensible set of assumptions for the LDs. You can be more aggressive if you like, and maybe assume the LD vote share rises to 14 or 15% nationally. But let's take mine as a starting point. What do they mean?
Well, they mean the LDs gain 6 to 12 English seats. I have a range, because quite a few of these would actually be quite difficult asks.
Here they are:
Wimbledon: but that requires that the LDs become the principle challenger. That's no sure thing. (35% chance of LD gain)
Carshalton & Wallington: well... I suspect the LDs will be starting all over with a new candidate. I suspect the LDs fall back here. (25% chance)
Cheltenham: LD gain (80% chance)
Winchester: LD gain (80% chance)
Cheadle: LD gain (70% chance)
Cambridgeshire South: LD gain (70% chance)
Esher & Walton: LD gain (75% chance)
Lewes: suddenly, we're getting into territory where there's not a lot of Labour vote to squeeze. On my assumptions, the LDs gain Lewes, but it's starting to get a bit tight. Shall we say 65% chance?
Eastbourne: Labour + LibDem does not beat the Conservatives here, so you're relying on the that 10% drop in the Conservative vote. 40% chance.
St Ives: as above... only will Andrew George stand again? If he does, then I'd make it a 50:50 shot. If he does not, then only a 10% one.
Hazel Grove: it's pretty close on my assumptions. Say a 60% chance.
Hitchin and Harpenden: this looks a lot like St Albans and there's a bit Labour vote to squeeze. Still, can't be more than a 50:50 shot under my assumptions
South West Surrey: my assumptions don't get you particularly close... Nor for Wells...
So, that's six seats (on old boundaries) that I would reckon as likely LD gains, and another half dozen they stand a decent chance in.
I mean, it's progress for the LDs. But against that, they're very likely to lose the new Highlands seat, and Fife could be dicey too.
I don't disagree with the majority of that reasoning and would not be shocked to see the Lib Dems only get 10 seats based on what happened in the past few elections even considering the national increase in the Tory vote. I would also not be confident about the Lib Dems gaining various seats like St Ives or Hazel Grove.
I think the LD target list will be a lot clearer at the next election however unless they get high on their own supply again. Next year's local elections will be quite interesting and there will be a lot riding on it for the Lib Dems particularly in places such as Harrogate and Somerset.
I think Taunton Deane is also a good long term prospect for the Lib Dems as they gained a majority on the district council in 2019 and wouldn't be surprised if it is now a more plausible target than Yeovil and even Wells.
Disclose.tv @disclosetv JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)
I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
They are doing Moderna, and aiui half dose boosters.
Do we do that for Moderna?
Same, half doses. You get a 37x multiplier for half doses 83x for full so the half dose was seen as fine. A full Pfizer dose gets a 29x multiplier iirc, so even the half dose of Moderna is a good option. There's been chatter that the next round could be quarter doses of Moderna and half doses of Pfizer.
1/4 Moderna or 1/2 Pfizer every 6-9 months might be the ticket.
Besides conserving doses for cost or supply purposes, what reason is there to only give a fractional dose instead of a full dose?
All drugs (including vaccines) are a trade off between side effects and efficacy.
As a general rule you want to give the minimum effective dose
New modelling from Warwick Uni projects 1.4 million infections, 5,000 hospital admissions and 500 deaths per day by Saturday, if we’re lucky. 🤷🏼♂️ https://t.co/rbQGJAHHAXhttps://t.co/CjHxGbz4n6
The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland
It's been interesting that HYUFD has been emphasising the good old shire way of life in recent months - I forget his exact expression but it's along the lines of (I paraphrase in my own words, so I apologise for getting the tone hoeplessly wrong) how right and proper it is having people who own lots of land and are the jolly old lord of the manor in charge of the local area to knuckle one's brows to, what? Slightly startling from him as there are not many country estates in Epping, still less Jane Austen bodicerippers filmed there, so maybe it is something CCHQ has been pushing.
I did suggest @HYUFD for poster most likely to appear in an Austen novel some years ago. @Charles demurred ISTR. PS. Austen wrote no bodicerippers. Nor was much of a fan of landed inheritance. As far as anyone can discern.
I don’t think I demurred.
But she was briefly (24 hours I think) engaged to her neighbour - who lived in the house I grew up in
Alton? Very nice place. A friend lived there - amused himself by showing me where Fanny Adams was murdered, down at the bottom of his garden.
Manydown - albeit I grew up in the dower house rather than the main park which "accidentally" burnt to the ground a few months before its grade 1 listing was going to come into force
We’re going to get some form of additional lockdown measures next week, surely ?
I was in Hereford today. It was buzzing. It was like wartime Paris. Now back in Wales, which by comparison is London during the blitz.
If Johnson doesn't award himself a non-lockdown knighthood in the New Year's Honours list, there is no justice.
We went to Seaham today and it was very busy too. Lots of people out and about enjoying a really mild and pleasant day. My wife and I reminisced about the last time we were there just after lockdown was eased in 2020 and how different it was then. A large queue to ge fish and chips too.
A couple of years ago on New Year’s Eve we went to the Sage. Tomorrow we are stopping in with an M&S heaty up. We both agreed had we paid to do the same this year And go out we’d just write the ticket value off and stay In.
What are the principal threats and opportunities facing Johnson's premiership in 2022?
I was thinking:
Opportunities: 1. Omicron might be the effective end of Covid, if mild and it becomes ubiquitous... 2. ...in which case the decision not to increase restrictions further could look inspired. 3. Having survived the Q4 scandals there might be a quiet period with no fresh scandals. 4. If a leadership challenge comes Johnson could see it off with votes to spare, so deferring any further challenge to 2023 at the earliest. 5. Some foreign event leads to a 'rally to the flag' boost for Johnson (I'm thinking Ukraine, but hopefully not).
Threats: 1. Omicron proves very nasty and Johnson's decision to avoid further restrictions looks misguided at best. 2. Further Covid variants extend the misery throughout 2022. 3. Energy price rises hit consumers hard. 4. Supply issues come to the fore as the new EU trade regimes kicks in. 5. The NI rises land badly with the public. 6. Further hitherto unrevealed Johnson scandals emerge. 7. Major financial crash sparked by Evergreen/Ukraine/something else. 8. Tory MPs don't recover their faith in Johnson as a winner after an extended period of bad polls.
I am sure there are others on both sides of the account. Thoughts anyone?
3 and 5 are the biggest threats to Johnson I suspect. I think 8 will be, if it happens, a consequence of any combination of 1-6.
5. The foreign event most likely to boost Boris is England winning the World Cup in December. And that is after what might be a summer made for Boris's boosterism, with the Platinum Jubilee in June before Emma wins Wimbledon a month later leading up to the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham.
Boris's problems lie in the first half of the year, which, by the way, is not very far off. First is the possible return of Wallpapergate with Lord Geidt making noises off about being "misled" by Boris, and the strong possibility that Kathryn Stone, the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner, weighs in and might even suspend Boris from Parliament, which will create a constitutional innovation one way or the other. That is why Operation Save Owen Paterson was really aimed at neutering the PSC.
That is without known unknowns like HMQ's mortality and the next Covid variant.
Any evidence that people would change their vote on the basis of ENGURLUND winning (I mean, it won't happen anyway, but let's stay with the hypothetical anyway)? I know egg-chasing is far less popular than football but the 2003 WC win did not show up at all in the polling. If Rashford slots in the winning penalty against Denmark in the final, will people be joining the FLSoJ party the next day?
New modelling from Warwick Uni projects 1.4 million infections, 5,000 hospital admissions and 500 deaths per day by Saturday, if we’re lucky. 🤷🏼♂️ https://t.co/rbQGJAHHAXhttps://t.co/CjHxGbz4n6
The Lib Dems must be grateful the voters of East Dunbartonshire got rid of the useless Swinson, and their party narrowly avoided the probably even worse Moran.
- ”… there are many constituencies where that level of anti-CON tactical voting could be decisive.”
Especially in Scotland.
All 6 Scottish Conservative seats (5 after boundary changes) are susceptible to even modest anti-CON tactical voting.
I don't see anyway the Tories have any Scottish seats at the next election/
What if more people vote for them in a Scottish constituency than any of their opponents?
I could see them winning a seat under that scenario.
(Non facetiously, I think they'll win the border seats again.)
My current prediction is they'll win 2 in Scotland. The anti-Johnson tide will be somewhat held back by anti-SNP tactical voting. When it comes down to it some people who hate both Johnson and the SNP will stick with Johnson as the lesser of two weevils.
The anti-Tory vote was squezzed pretty much as far as possible in 2019 so i don't see much scope for further anti tory voting knocking off any of their seats.
What the SCons have to worry about, in my view, is former Lib Dem voters who flocked to them en-masse in 2017 "returning home".
Now, i think that is fairly unlikely as anti-SNP is driving their vote and the SNP will still exist at the next election but the LD-to-SCon vote unwinding would be devastating for the SCons.
The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland
Labour still win the urban poor in England and Wales and won the inner cities there even in 2019. The only reason they lost it in Scotland was the SNP overtook them on the populist left, same as the only reason the Tories would lose rural areas in England is if another party overtook them on the populist right like ReformUK.
For example they would need to be annihilated like the Canadian Tories were in 1993 when they lost rural areas in the West to the Refom party as well as suburban and commuter belt areas to the Liberals.
Shropshire North is like Christchurch, a LD by election win in 1993 on an even bigger swing than North Shropshire that went Tory again in 1997
Why do you make the assumption that in the rural areas it would need a right wing party such as Reform for the Tories to lose those areas.
I would refer you to Tim Farron who sits in what should by any criteria you use be a very safe Tory - even more so than say Richmond (Yorks).
@HYUFD makes that assumption because that's what he would do, that's the way he thinks.
Most of the (many) Tories I meet here in North Dorset are centre-right, often appalled by the current incumbent of No 10, would probably never vote Labour or Reform but might well be minded to vote LD or abstain if Johnson is still PM come the next GE.
New modelling from Warwick Uni projects 1.4 million infections, 5,000 hospital admissions and 500 deaths per day by Saturday, if we’re lucky. 🤷🏼♂️ https://t.co/rbQGJAHHAXhttps://t.co/CjHxGbz4n6
1.4 million in, erm...checks the calendar...two days time!!!
Thats infections not cases. Now Javid said the last week they had worked on a 7x multipler, no idea if he misspoke and what the background to that was.
Also reported date vs specimen date, i guess we will be well over 200k recorded cases for today on specimen date.
The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland
Labour still win the urban poor in England and Wales and won the inner cities there even in 2019. The only reason they lost it in Scotland was the SNP overtook them on the populist left, same as the only reason the Tories would lose rural areas in England is if another party overtook them on the populist right like ReformUK.
For example they would need to be annihilated like the Canadian Tories were in 1993 when they lost rural areas in the West to the Refom party as well as suburban and commuter belt areas to the Liberals.
Shropshire North is like Christchurch, a LD by election win in 1993 on an even bigger swing than North Shropshire that went Tory again in 1997
Why do you make the assumption that in the rural areas it would need a right wing party such as Reform for the Tories to lose those areas.
I would refer you to Tim Farron who sits in what should by any criteria you use be a very safe Tory - even more so than say Richmond (Yorks).
@HYUFD makes that assumption because that's what he would do, that's the way he thinks.
Most of the (many) Tories I meet here in North Dorset are centre-right, often appalled by the current incumbent of No 10, would probably never vote Labour or Reform but might well be minded to vote LD or abstain if Johnson is still PM come the next GE.
Para 2 suns me up as well
And me but unfortunately the lib dems in Wales are 'who'
On topic, OGH is - I'm sure - completely correct that Labour voters are going to be more prepared to vote tactically in 2024.
But it is worth noting that this will probably only result in a fairly small list of LibDem gains. Let's assume the following:
(1) The Conservative vote in a seat falls by 10% (2) If the Labour Party is more than 10 points behind the LibDems, then half the Labour vote goes to the LDs.
The second assumption is to deal with seats that are three-way marginals. And, of course, this analysis does not deal with the boundary changes which will make encouraging tactical voting harder for the LDs.
Together, these look like a fairly sensible set of assumptions for the LDs. You can be more aggressive if you like, and maybe assume the LD vote share rises to 14 or 15% nationally. But let's take mine as a starting point. What do they mean?
Well, they mean the LDs gain 6 to 12 English seats. I have a range, because quite a few of these would actually be quite difficult asks.
Here they are:
Wimbledon: but that requires that the LDs become the principle challenger. That's no sure thing. (35% chance of LD gain)
Carshalton & Wallington: well... I suspect the LDs will be starting all over with a new candidate. I suspect the LDs fall back here. (25% chance)
Cheltenham: LD gain (80% chance)
Winchester: LD gain (80% chance)
Cheadle: LD gain (70% chance)
Cambridgeshire South: LD gain (70% chance)
Esher & Walton: LD gain (75% chance)
Lewes: suddenly, we're getting into territory where there's not a lot of Labour vote to squeeze. On my assumptions, the LDs gain Lewes, but it's starting to get a bit tight. Shall we say 65% chance?
Eastbourne: Labour + LibDem does not beat the Conservatives here, so you're relying on the that 10% drop in the Conservative vote. 40% chance.
St Ives: as above... only will Andrew George stand again? If he does, then I'd make it a 50:50 shot. If he does not, then only a 10% one.
Hazel Grove: it's pretty close on my assumptions. Say a 60% chance.
Hitchin and Harpenden: this looks a lot like St Albans and there's a bit Labour vote to squeeze. Still, can't be more than a 50:50 shot under my assumptions
South West Surrey: my assumptions don't get you particularly close... Nor for Wells...
So, that's six seats (on old boundaries) that I would reckon as likely LD gains, and another half dozen they stand a decent chance in.
I mean, it's progress for the LDs. But against that, they're very likely to lose the new Highlands seat, and Fife could be dicey too.
I don't disagree with the majority of that reasoning and would not be shocked to see the Lib Dems only get 10 seats based on what happened in the past few elections even considering the national increase in the Tory vote. I would also not be confident about the Lib Dems gaining various seats like St Ives or Hazel Grove.
I think the LD target list will be a lot clearer at the next election however unless they get high on their own supply again. Next year's local elections will be quite interesting and there will be a lot riding on it for the Lib Dems particularly in places such as Harrogate and Somerset.
I think Taunton Deane is also a good long term prospect for the Lib Dems as they gained a majority on the district council in 2019 and wouldn't be surprised if it is now a more plausible target than Yeovil and even Wells.
The LDs could go backwards in 2024, for sure. They could easily lose three of their four Scottish seats (although I suspect only one is a certain goner).
If they did lose three, then they'd start at 8. And then there are the boundary changes that make some of them less secure. Current boundary proposals basically abolish Tim Farron's seat. (Which is a bit harsh, as it's only slightly short of the number of constituents needed to be "in the range".)
Ultimately, the LDs need to be in the mid-teens vote share-wise, if they wish to make progress. Could they do it? Sure. Will they do it? Signs are so far not that encouraging. I suspect they'll make some small gains on the back of tactical voting, but that'll be about it.
New modelling from Warwick Uni projects 1.4 million infections, 5,000 hospital admissions and 500 deaths per day by Saturday, if we’re lucky. 🤷🏼♂️ https://t.co/rbQGJAHHAXhttps://t.co/CjHxGbz4n6
Disclose.tv @disclosetv JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)
I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
They are doing Moderna, and aiui half dose boosters.
Do we do that for Moderna?
Same, half doses. You get a 37x multiplier for half doses 83x for full so the half dose was seen as fine. A full Pfizer dose gets a 29x multiplier iirc, so even the half dose of Moderna is a good option. There's been chatter that the next round could be quarter doses of Moderna and half doses of Pfizer.
1/4 Moderna or 1/2 Pfizer every 6-9 months might be the ticket.
Besides conserving doses for cost or supply purposes, what reason is there to only give a fractional dose instead of a full dose?
All drugs (including vaccines) are a trade off between side effects and efficacy.
As a general rule you want to give the minimum effective dose
If that is the case and they have their MOJO back they need to fight Southend West, as do Labour, otherwise their MOJO could stall amid a massive Reform Party vote. Suggest this issue is worth a thread on its won.
I agreee
I don’t agree. Assassinated when doing constituency work. It’s good manners to stand aside out of respect, and good principle not to look to gain from assassinated MP seat.
You really expecting the Lib Dems to be principled? 😂😂
Disclose.tv @disclosetv JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)
I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
They are doing Moderna, and aiui half dose boosters.
Do we do that for Moderna?
Same, half doses. You get a 37x multiplier for half doses 83x for full so the half dose was seen as fine. A full Pfizer dose gets a 29x multiplier iirc, so even the half dose of Moderna is a good option. There's been chatter that the next round could be quarter doses of Moderna and half doses of Pfizer.
1/4 Moderna or 1/2 Pfizer every 6-9 months might be the ticket.
Besides conserving doses for cost or supply purposes, what reason is there to only give a fractional dose instead of a full dose?
All drugs (including vaccines) are a trade off between side effects and efficacy.
As a general rule you want to give the minimum effective dose
- ”… there are many constituencies where that level of anti-CON tactical voting could be decisive.”
Especially in Scotland.
All 6 Scottish Conservative seats (5 after boundary changes) are susceptible to even modest anti-CON tactical voting.
I don't see anyway the Tories have any Scottish seats at the next election/
What if more people vote for them in a Scottish constituency than any of their opponents?
I could see them winning a seat under that scenario.
(Non facetiously, I think they'll win the border seats again.)
My current prediction is they'll win 2 in Scotland. The anti-Johnson tide will be somewhat held back by anti-SNP tactical voting. When it comes down to it some people who hate both Johnson and the SNP will stick with Johnson as the lesser of two weevils.
The anti-Tory vote was squezzed pretty much as far as possible in 2019 so i don't see much scope for further anti tory voting knocking off any of their seats.
What the SCons have to worry about, in my view, is former Lib Dem voters who flocked to them en-masse in 2017 "returning home".
Now, i think that is fairly unlikely as anti-SNP is driving their vote and the SNP will still exist at the next election but the LD-to-SCon vote unwinding would be devastating for the SCons.
The 2019 Con vote in Scotland was 10pp up on 2015. Ten! There's a LOT of scope for people to turn back away, and I think they will. Simply, there's a set of people who hate the SNP and saw the Conservatives as the best party to express that. What will happen to those voters? Doubtless significant numbers will stay, but if we call 15% the Tory "base", are conditions more or less favourable now then in 2019 for keeping the "extra" ten? I'm certain they are less favourable.
If, for example, CON goes from 25% to 20%, that will see my seat fall to the SNP even with no extra SNP votes.
The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland
It's been interesting that HYUFD has been emphasising the good old shire way of life in recent months - I forget his exact expression but it's along the lines of (I paraphrase in my own words, so I apologise for getting the tone hoeplessly wrong) how right and proper it is having people who own lots of land and are the jolly old lord of the manor in charge of the local area to knuckle one's brows to, what? Slightly startling from him as there are not many country estates in Epping, still less Jane Austen bodicerippers filmed there, so maybe it is something CCHQ has been pushing.
Copped Hall is an 18th century estate just outside Epping, currently being restored
On topic, OGH is - I'm sure - completely correct that Labour voters are going to be more prepared to vote tactically in 2024.
But it is worth noting that this will probably only result in a fairly small list of LibDem gains. Let's assume the following:
(1) The Conservative vote in a seat falls by 10% (2) If the Labour Party is more than 10 points behind the LibDems, then half the Labour vote goes to the LDs.
The second assumption is to deal with seats that are three-way marginals. And, of course, this analysis does not deal with the boundary changes which will make encouraging tactical voting harder for the LDs.
Together, these look like a fairly sensible set of assumptions for the LDs. You can be more aggressive if you like, and maybe assume the LD vote share rises to 14 or 15% nationally. But let's take mine as a starting point. What do they mean?
Well, they mean the LDs gain 6 to 12 English seats. I have a range, because quite a few of these would actually be quite difficult asks.
Here they are:
Wimbledon: but that requires that the LDs become the principle challenger. That's no sure thing. (35% chance of LD gain)
Carshalton & Wallington: well... I suspect the LDs will be starting all over with a new candidate. I suspect the LDs fall back here. (25% chance)
Cheltenham: LD gain (80% chance)
Winchester: LD gain (80% chance)
Cheadle: LD gain (70% chance)
Cambridgeshire South: LD gain (70% chance)
Esher & Walton: LD gain (75% chance)
Lewes: suddenly, we're getting into territory where there's not a lot of Labour vote to squeeze. On my assumptions, the LDs gain Lewes, but it's starting to get a bit tight. Shall we say 65% chance?
Eastbourne: Labour + LibDem does not beat the Conservatives here, so you're relying on the that 10% drop in the Conservative vote. 40% chance.
St Ives: as above... only will Andrew George stand again? If he does, then I'd make it a 50:50 shot. If he does not, then only a 10% one.
Hazel Grove: it's pretty close on my assumptions. Say a 60% chance.
Hitchin and Harpenden: this looks a lot like St Albans and there's a bit Labour vote to squeeze. Still, can't be more than a 50:50 shot under my assumptions
South West Surrey: my assumptions don't get you particularly close... Nor for Wells...
So, that's six seats (on old boundaries) that I would reckon as likely LD gains, and another half dozen they stand a decent chance in.
I mean, it's progress for the LDs. But against that, they're very likely to lose the new Highlands seat, and Fife could be dicey too.
I don't disagree with the majority of that reasoning and would not be shocked to see the Lib Dems only get 10 seats based on what happened in the past few elections even considering the national increase in the Tory vote. I would also not be confident about the Lib Dems gaining various seats like St Ives or Hazel Grove.
I think the LD target list will be a lot clearer at the next election however unless they get high on their own supply again. Next year's local elections will be quite interesting and there will be a lot riding on it for the Lib Dems particularly in places such as Harrogate and Somerset.
I think Taunton Deane is also a good long term prospect for the Lib Dems as they gained a majority on the district council in 2019 and wouldn't be surprised if it is now a more plausible target than Yeovil and even Wells.
The LDs could go backwards in 2024, for sure. They could easily lose three of their four Scottish seats (although I suspect only one is a certain goner).
If they did lose three, then they'd start at 8. And then there are the boundary changes that make some of them less secure. Current boundary proposals basically abolish Tim Farron's seat. (Which is a bit harsh, as it's only slightly short of the number of constituents needed to be "in the range".)
Ultimately, the LDs need to be in the mid-teens vote share-wise, if they wish to make progress. Could they do it? Sure. Will they do it? Signs are so far not that encouraging. I suspect they'll make some small gains on the back of tactical voting, but that'll be about it.
If the LDs fail to launch, Johnson is already home and hosed for GE2024. I suspect any hope of a non- Conservative Government is very much reliant on a LD resurgence.
- ”… there are many constituencies where that level of anti-CON tactical voting could be decisive.”
Especially in Scotland.
All 6 Scottish Conservative seats (5 after boundary changes) are susceptible to even modest anti-CON tactical voting.
I don't see anyway the Tories have any Scottish seats at the next election/
Centre right politics will have to wait until after independence for an upturn.
Pre-independence, the only viable defender of the Union is SLab, and they are still stuck in self-destruct mode.
Eh? The Conservatives in 2017 and 2019 won more seats in Scotland than at any general election since 1992 precisely as they were the main party of the Union
- ”… there are many constituencies where that level of anti-CON tactical voting could be decisive.”
Especially in Scotland.
All 6 Scottish Conservative seats (5 after boundary changes) are susceptible to even modest anti-CON tactical voting.
I don't see anyway the Tories have any Scottish seats at the next election/
Centre right politics will have to wait until after independence for an upturn.
Pre-independence, the only viable defender of the Union is SLab, and they are still stuck in self-destruct mode.
Eh? The Conservatives in 2017 and 2019 won more seats in Scotland than at any general election since 1992 precisely as they were the main party of the Union
That was then
Brexit - covid - Paterson - wallpapergate - partygate - sleaze have all changed attitudes comprehensively
Disclose.tv @disclosetv JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)
I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
They are doing Moderna, and aiui half dose boosters.
Do we do that for Moderna?
Same, half doses. You get a 37x multiplier for half doses 83x for full so the half dose was seen as fine. A full Pfizer dose gets a 29x multiplier iirc, so even the half dose of Moderna is a good option. There's been chatter that the next round could be quarter doses of Moderna and half doses of Pfizer.
1/4 Moderna or 1/2 Pfizer every 6-9 months might be the ticket.
Besides conserving doses for cost or supply purposes, what reason is there to only give a fractional dose instead of a full dose?
All drugs (including vaccines) are a trade off between side effects and efficacy.
As a general rule you want to give the minimum effective dose
What's the minimum effective dose of wine?
When the government came out with their "no more than 14 units a week" I took a look at the stats. In order to increase your chance of early death by 10% you would need to drink two bottles of wine a day
Now if the whole population started doing that the results would be catastrophic.....individually, on the other hand.....
- ”… there are many constituencies where that level of anti-CON tactical voting could be decisive.”
Especially in Scotland.
All 6 Scottish Conservative seats (5 after boundary changes) are susceptible to even modest anti-CON tactical voting.
I don't see anyway the Tories have any Scottish seats at the next election/
What if more people vote for them in a Scottish constituency than any of their opponents?
I could see them winning a seat under that scenario.
(Non facetiously, I think they'll win the border seats again.)
My current prediction is they'll win 2 in Scotland. The anti-Johnson tide will be somewhat held back by anti-SNP tactical voting. When it comes down to it some people who hate both Johnson and the SNP will stick with Johnson as the lesser of two weevils.
The anti-Tory vote was squezzed pretty much as far as possible in 2019 so i don't see much scope for further anti tory voting knocking off any of their seats.
What the SCons have to worry about, in my view, is former Lib Dem voters who flocked to them en-masse in 2017 "returning home".
Now, i think that is fairly unlikely as anti-SNP is driving their vote and the SNP will still exist at the next election but the LD-to-SCon vote unwinding would be devastating for the SCons.
Ironically, it's the SNP's strength which is likely holding the SCONS up. If SLAB did ever make any substantial progress against the SNP - both in terms of vote share and seats - in urban Scotland, a lot of SLD voters would probably consider it to be safe to go home. No need to prop up SCON MPs in say BRS if the SNP aren't a credible threat to the union.
We’re going to get some form of additional lockdown measures next week, surely ?
Love to know what sort of lockdown will fix the baked in forthcoming increase in hospital numbers.
The PB hawks seem very satisfied with Johnson's performance over the last week, laughing heartily at Macron, Sturgeon and Drakeford. Surely politically Johnson has nailed his colours to Barti Ddu's mast, and the way forward can only be steady as she goes, and if needs must, let it rip.
Lockdown measures seem politically more unacceptable to the Conservative base and the voting public than NHS hospitalisations, and ultimately deaths.
New modelling from Warwick Uni projects 1.4 million infections, 5,000 hospital admissions and 500 deaths per day by Saturday, if we’re lucky. 🤷🏼♂️ https://t.co/rbQGJAHHAXhttps://t.co/CjHxGbz4n6
What does it predict for the days for which we already have data - yesterday etc.?
Who cares? The Warwick models are so notoriously bad that, even if they got somewhere remotely close to being right about the shape of the Omicron wave at this juncture, it could easily be dismissed as a stopped clock event.
Any one of us could probably come up with a better guess if given a day to trawl Google for some basic numbers and do a few sums.
- ”… there are many constituencies where that level of anti-CON tactical voting could be decisive.”
Especially in Scotland.
All 6 Scottish Conservative seats (5 after boundary changes) are susceptible to even modest anti-CON tactical voting.
I don't see anyway the Tories have any Scottish seats at the next election/
Centre right politics will have to wait until after independence for an upturn.
Pre-independence, the only viable defender of the Union is SLab, and they are still stuck in self-destruct mode.
Eh? The Conservatives in 2017 and 2019 won more seats in Scotland than at any general election since 1992 precisely as they were the main party of the Union
That was then
The same principle applies. The only time the centre right has won a majority of Scottish MPs was in 1955 when they stood as Unionists.
Unionism boosts the centre right vote, absent the Unionist cause the centre right would do no better in Scotland than the Moderate party does in Sweden ie an occasional win in coalition with the Liberals but most of the time it would be social democrat governments
- ”… there are many constituencies where that level of anti-CON tactical voting could be decisive.”
Especially in Scotland.
All 6 Scottish Conservative seats (5 after boundary changes) are susceptible to even modest anti-CON tactical voting.
I don't see anyway the Tories have any Scottish seats at the next election/
What if more people vote for them in a Scottish constituency than any of their opponents?
I could see them winning a seat under that scenario.
(Non facetiously, I think they'll win the border seats again.)
My current prediction is they'll win 2 in Scotland. The anti-Johnson tide will be somewhat held back by anti-SNP tactical voting. When it comes down to it some people who hate both Johnson and the SNP will stick with Johnson as the lesser of two weevils.
The anti-Tory vote was squezzed pretty much as far as possible in 2019 so i don't see much scope for further anti tory voting knocking off any of their seats.
What the SCons have to worry about, in my view, is former Lib Dem voters who flocked to them en-masse in 2017 "returning home".
Now, i think that is fairly unlikely as anti-SNP is driving their vote and the SNP will still exist at the next election but the LD-to-SCon vote unwinding would be devastating for the SCons.
The 2019 Con vote in Scotland was 10pp up on 2015. Ten! There's a LOT of scope for people to turn back away, and I think they will. Simply, there's a set of people who hate the SNP and saw the Conservatives as the best party to express that. What will happen to those voters? Doubtless significant numbers will stay, but if we call 15% the Tory "base", are conditions more or less favourable now then in 2019 for keeping the "extra" ten? I'm certain they are less favourable.
If, for example, CON goes from 25% to 20%, that will see my seat fall to the SNP even with no extra SNP votes.
Also what happens in the other direction. Even losing a couple of percentage points to Ms Ballantyne's lot cause Brexit was watered down would do a lot of damage.
Disclose.tv @disclosetv JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)
I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
They are doing Moderna, and aiui half dose boosters.
Do we do that for Moderna?
Same, half doses. You get a 37x multiplier for half doses 83x for full so the half dose was seen as fine. A full Pfizer dose gets a 29x multiplier iirc, so even the half dose of Moderna is a good option. There's been chatter that the next round could be quarter doses of Moderna and half doses of Pfizer.
1/4 Moderna or 1/2 Pfizer every 6-9 months might be the ticket.
Besides conserving doses for cost or supply purposes, what reason is there to only give a fractional dose instead of a full dose?
All drugs (including vaccines) are a trade off between side effects and efficacy.
As a general rule you want to give the minimum effective dose
What's the minimum effective dose of wine?
When the government came out with their "no more than 14 units a week" I took a look at the stats. In order to increase your chance of early death by 10% you would need to drink two bottles of wine a day
Now if the whole population started doing that the results would be catastrophic.....individually, on the other hand.....
The best and most constructive post in the history of PB. It is in line with the guidance you see on road signs in Scotland, "Twenty is Plenty," which I construe as a units per day limit.
The Lib Dems must be grateful the voters of East Dunbartonshire got rid of the useless Swinson, and their party narrowly avoided the probably even worse Moran.
We’re going to get some form of additional lockdown measures next week, surely ?
Love to know what sort of lockdown will fix the baked in forthcoming increase in hospital numbers.
The PB hawks seem very satisfied with Johnson's performance over the last week, laughing heartily at Macron, Sturgeon and Drakeford. Surely politically Johnson has nailed his colours to Barti Ddu's mast, and the way forward can only be steady as she goes, and if needs must, let it rip.
Lockdown measures seem politically more unacceptable to the Conservative base and the voting public than NHS hospitalisations, and ultimately deaths.
It'll be interesting to see if any of the measures taken by the Welsh, Northern Irish and Scottish Governments have done any good at all. If they have, there really ought to be some marked divergence in the case rates during the first half of January, so we don't have long to wait to find out.
- ”… there are many constituencies where that level of anti-CON tactical voting could be decisive.”
Especially in Scotland.
All 6 Scottish Conservative seats (5 after boundary changes) are susceptible to even modest anti-CON tactical voting.
I don't see anyway the Tories have any Scottish seats at the next election/
What if more people vote for them in a Scottish constituency than any of their opponents?
I could see them winning a seat under that scenario.
(Non facetiously, I think they'll win the border seats again.)
My current prediction is they'll win 2 in Scotland. The anti-Johnson tide will be somewhat held back by anti-SNP tactical voting. When it comes down to it some people who hate both Johnson and the SNP will stick with Johnson as the lesser of two weevils.
The anti-Tory vote was squezzed pretty much as far as possible in 2019 so i don't see much scope for further anti tory voting knocking off any of their seats.
What the SCons have to worry about, in my view, is former Lib Dem voters who flocked to them en-masse in 2017 "returning home".
Now, i think that is fairly unlikely as anti-SNP is driving their vote and the SNP will still exist at the next election but the LD-to-SCon vote unwinding would be devastating for the SCons.
The 2019 Con vote in Scotland was 10pp up on 2015. Ten! There's a LOT of scope for people to turn back away, and I think they will. Simply, there's a set of people who hate the SNP and saw the Conservatives as the best party to express that. What will happen to those voters? Doubtless significant numbers will stay, but if we call 15% the Tory "base", are conditions more or less favourable now then in 2019 for keeping the "extra" ten? I'm certain they are less favourable.
If, for example, CON goes from 25% to 20%, that will see my seat fall to the SNP even with no extra SNP votes.
Also what happens in the other direction. Even losing a couple of percentage points to Ms Ballantyne's lot cause Brexit was watered down would do a lot of damage.
2pp! Do you think that's likely? UKIP never managed 2%, at least not in the WM elections.
We’re going to get some form of additional lockdown measures next week, surely ?
Love to know what sort of lockdown will fix the baked in forthcoming increase in hospital numbers.
The PB hawks seem very satisfied with Johnson's performance over the last week, laughing heartily at Macron, Sturgeon and Drakeford. Surely politically Johnson has nailed his colours to Barti Ddu's mast, and the way forward can only be steady as she goes, and if needs must, let it rip.
Lockdown measures seem politically more unacceptable to the Conservative base and the voting public than NHS hospitalisations, and ultimately deaths.
Indeed not.
I don't give a toss how many anti-vaxxers die.
The thing which baffles me is why the government continues to pander to them.
If that is the case and they have their MOJO back they need to fight Southend West, as do Labour, otherwise their MOJO could stall amid a massive Reform Party vote. Suggest this issue is worth a thread on its won.
I agreee
I don’t agree. Assassinated when doing constituency work. It’s good manners to stand aside out of respect, and good principle not to look to gain from assassinated MP seat.
Dead wrong, the show must go on. You wanna show respect for Amess you can do it at the funeral. Thereafter you show respect for democracy.
I think I'm with you on this but it's agonising. Ultimately I think you can separate the man from the party. Amess, regrettably, is not around to contest the seat. Someone else is standing for the Conservatives. Will he or she be better than the possible alternatives who could have stood for other parties? That ought to be up to the voters to decide. If the voters think the best course of action is to replace the murdered MP with a new one from the same party, that is a noble choice but their choice.
The counter argument is that the voters chose a Tory at the last election. Death from natural causes happens and should result in a new election.
But after a murder it is important to demonstrate that the killer has had no impact on the composition of parliament
I don't want to be locked down solely because some idiots have believed nonsense they've read off the internet and won't have the vaccine. Stick them in the tents and we will make it through. We can't be that far off the peak now given the ridiculously large numbers already infected, so there's not much good a lockdown can achieve at this stage anyway.
Travel from the UK to France Travel Update for those transiting through France
The French government has updated the travel rules applied since 28 December 2021.
Passengers travelling from the UK, with residency permits for other EU countries under the Withdrawal Agreement, can now transit through France to return to their homes. This is subject to their journey to the UK having been completed before the 28th December 2021.
We’re going to get some form of additional lockdown measures next week, surely ?
Love to know what sort of lockdown will fix the baked in forthcoming increase in hospital numbers.
The PB hawks seem very satisfied with Johnson's performance over the last week, laughing heartily at Macron, Sturgeon and Drakeford. Surely politically Johnson has nailed his colours to Barti Ddu's mast, and the way forward can only be steady as she goes, and if needs must, let it rip.
Lockdown measures seem politically more unacceptable to the Conservative base and the voting public than NHS hospitalisations, and ultimately deaths.
It'll be interesting to see if any of the measures taken by the Welsh, Northern Irish and Scottish Governments have done any good at all. If they have, there really ought to be some marked divergence in the case rates during the first half of January, so we don't have long to wait to find out.
theres also the phenomenom of lots of scots going south to england for nye which will distort the data as they bring covid back into scotland
Disclose.tv @disclosetv JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)
I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
They are doing Moderna, and aiui half dose boosters.
Do we do that for Moderna?
Same, half doses. You get a 37x multiplier for half doses 83x for full so the half dose was seen as fine. A full Pfizer dose gets a 29x multiplier iirc, so even the half dose of Moderna is a good option. There's been chatter that the next round could be quarter doses of Moderna and half doses of Pfizer.
1/4 Moderna or 1/2 Pfizer every 6-9 months might be the ticket.
Besides conserving doses for cost or supply purposes, what reason is there to only give a fractional dose instead of a full dose?
All drugs (including vaccines) are a trade off between side effects and efficacy.
As a general rule you want to give the minimum effective dose
What's the minimum effective dose of wine?
When the government came out with their "no more than 14 units a week" I took a look at the stats. In order to increase your chance of early death by 10% you would need to drink two bottles of wine a day
Now if the whole population started doing that the results would be catastrophic.....individually, on the other hand.....
The best and most constructive post in the history of PB. It is in line with the guidance you see on road signs in Scotland, "Twenty is Plenty," which I construe as a units per day limit.
What are the principal threats and opportunities facing Johnson's premiership in 2022?
I was thinking:
Opportunities: 1. Omicron might be the effective end of Covid, if mild and it becomes ubiquitous... 2. ...in which case the decision not to increase restrictions further could look inspired. 3. Having survived the Q4 scandals there might be a quiet period with no fresh scandals. 4. If a leadership challenge comes Johnson could see it off with votes to spare, so deferring any further challenge to 2023 at the earliest. 5. Some foreign event leads to a 'rally to the flag' boost for Johnson (I'm thinking Ukraine, but hopefully not).
Threats: 1. Omicron proves very nasty and Johnson's decision to avoid further restrictions looks misguided at best. 2. Further Covid variants extend the misery throughout 2022. 3. Energy price rises hit consumers hard. 4. Supply issues come to the fore as the new EU trade regimes kicks in. 5. The NI rises land badly with the public. 6. Further hitherto unrevealed Johnson scandals emerge. 7. Major financial crash sparked by Evergreen/Ukraine/something else. 8. Tory MPs don't recover their faith in Johnson as a winner after an extended period of bad polls.
I am sure there are others on both sides of the account. Thoughts anyone?
3 and 5 are the biggest threats to Johnson I suspect. I think 8 will be, if it happens, a consequence of any combination of 1-6.
5. The foreign event most likely to boost Boris is England winning the World Cup in December. And that is after what might be a summer made for Boris's boosterism, with the Platinum Jubilee in June before Emma wins Wimbledon a month later leading up to the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham.
Boris's problems lie in the first half of the year, which, by the way, is not very far off. First is the possible return of Wallpapergate with Lord Geidt making noises off about being "misled" by Boris, and the strong possibility that Kathryn Stone, the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner, weighs in and might even suspend Boris from Parliament, which will create a constitutional innovation one way or the other. That is why Operation Save Owen Paterson was really aimed at neutering the PSC.
That is without known unknowns like HMQ's mortality and the next Covid variant.
Any evidence that people would change their vote on the basis of ENGURLUND winning (I mean, it won't happen anyway, but let's stay with the hypothetical anyway)? I know egg-chasing is far less popular than football but the 2003 WC win did not show up at all in the polling. If Rashford slots in the winning penalty against Denmark in the final, will people be joining the FLSoJ party the next day?
It is widely thought that Labour lost in 1970 because England were beaten in the World Cup. Victory in Qatar would bring rejoicing throughout the land (south of the wall and east of the dyke) and happiness will probably boost the existing PM, be it Boris, Liz, Rishi or even Sir Keir.
We’re going to get some form of additional lockdown measures next week, surely ?
Love to know what sort of lockdown will fix the baked in forthcoming increase in hospital numbers.
The PB hawks seem very satisfied with Johnson's performance over the last week, laughing heartily at Macron, Sturgeon and Drakeford. Surely politically Johnson has nailed his colours to Barti Ddu's mast, and the way forward can only be steady as she goes, and if needs must, let it rip.
Lockdown measures seem politically more unacceptable to the Conservative base and the voting public than NHS hospitalisations, and ultimately deaths.
You're going for the "Stopped Clock" award, aren't you?
Anyone calling for lockdown in this Omicron wave is essentially saying one or both of these:
1. The UK population is completely different from that of South Africa or Denmark in our susceptibility to severe disease from Omicron, or 2. The NHS in London is less able to manage an Omicron wave than the healthcare system in Johannesburg.
I don't want to be locked down solely because some idiots have believed nonsense they've read off the internet and won't have the vaccine. Stick them in the tents and we will make it through. We can't be that far off the peak now given the ridiculously large numbers already infected, so there's not much good a lockdown can achieve at this stage anyway.
HMG need to hold their nerve.
may be not far off peak in london but the curves on hospital admissions in regions only just starting to rise. Johnson has a big decision next week
I don't want to be locked down solely because some idiots have believed nonsense they've read off the internet and won't have the vaccine. Stick them in the tents and we will make it through. We can't be that far off the peak now given the ridiculously large numbers already infected, so there's not much good a lockdown can achieve at this stage anyway.
HMG need to hold their nerve.
Looking at regional and local infection data should give a good idea of how Omicron will pass through the country.
I don't want to be locked down solely because some idiots have believed nonsense they've read off the internet and won't have the vaccine. Stick them in the tents and we will make it through. We can't be that far off the peak now given the ridiculously large numbers already infected, so there's not much good a lockdown can achieve at this stage anyway.
Travel from the UK to France Travel Update for those transiting through France
The French government has updated the travel rules applied since 28 December 2021.
Passengers travelling from the UK, with residency permits for other EU countries under the Withdrawal Agreement, can now transit through France to return to their homes. This is subject to their journey to the UK having been completed before the 28th December 2021.
If that is the case and they have their MOJO back they need to fight Southend West, as do Labour, otherwise their MOJO could stall amid a massive Reform Party vote. Suggest this issue is worth a thread on its won.
I agreee
I don’t agree. Assassinated when doing constituency work. It’s good manners to stand aside out of respect, and good principle not to look to gain from assassinated MP seat.
Dead wrong, the show must go on. You wanna show respect for Amess you can do it at the funeral. Thereafter you show respect for democracy.
I think I'm with you on this but it's agonising. Ultimately I think you can separate the man from the party. Amess, regrettably, is not around to contest the seat. Someone else is standing for the Conservatives. Will he or she be better than the possible alternatives who could have stood for other parties? That ought to be up to the voters to decide. If the voters think the best course of action is to replace the murdered MP with a new one from the same party, that is a noble choice but their choice.
The counter argument is that the voters chose a Tory at the last election. Death from natural causes happens and should result in a new election.
But after a murder it is important to demonstrate that the killer has had no impact on the composition of parliament
I sympathise with that view, but it assumes a little too much on behalf of the attacker's motives. Sometimes MPs are targeted because of which party they're in, but sometimes it's just because they are an MP. Or it might even be unrelated to the fact that they're an MP. And, unfortunately, even when an MP of the same party is re-elected, the composition of parliament has changed. MPs are still individuals with their own views and ways of doing things. Every single person is irreplaceable, and the colour of their rosette is a small detail that doesn't mean much for their vitality and worth.
You're going for the "Stopped Clock" award, aren't you?
Anyone calling for lockdown in this Omicron wave is essentially saying one or both of these:
1. The UK population is completely different from that of South Africa or Denmark in our susceptibility to severe disease from Omicron, or 2. The NHS in London is less able to manage an Omicron wave than the healthcare system in Johannesburg.
Either of which seems pretty unlikely.
1. the uk population is older and more obese than the SA population and less healthythan the danish population too 2. its the nhs.....mmmm
Sefcovic seems to have landed himself in a bit of a hole. At the same time he's trying to carry out a mugging on Switzerland because the EU does not like the Trade Agreements it agreed to.
How many of the EU's top 10 trading partners are they not in serious conflict with?
1 - China 2 - USA 3 - UK 4 - Switzerland ASEAN 5 - Russia 6 - Turkey 7 - Japan 8 - Norway 9 - South Korea 10 - India
Just China, UK, Switzerland, Russia where there are already biggish disputes account for 50% of EU exports and 60% of imports.
Yet all Sefcovic seems to have is "WE ARE THE MASTERS OF THE UNIVERSE AND YOU WILL OBEY US !", like a Dr Who villain.
Comments
Glad that I am off over New Year. Last couple of days have got really quite wearing.
Hmmm
Especially in Scotland.
All 6 Scottish Conservative seats (5 after boundary changes) are susceptible to even modest anti-CON tactical voting.
I'm not that convinced parliament matters that much. What the LDs want is something where they are distinct from the two big parties.
So, they had Iraq, for example.
Mana from heaven for them would be if the Conservatives (with Labour support) pushed through a lockdown in January. In that case, I wouldn't be surprised if they benefited enormously as opponents of that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxdzLmL22Fs
Fornite is down AGAIN for the second time in less than 24 hours
I could see them winning a seat under that scenario.
(Non facetiously, I think they'll win the border seats again.)
https://www.digitalausten.org/node/26
Boris's problems lie in the first half of the year, which, by the way, is not very far off. First is the possible return of Wallpapergate with Lord Geidt making noises off about being "misled" by Boris, and the strong possibility that Kathryn Stone, the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner, weighs in and might even suspend Boris from Parliament, which will create a constitutional innovation one way or the other. That is why Operation Save Owen Paterson was really aimed at neutering the PSC.
That is without known unknowns like HMQ's mortality and the next Covid variant.
I think the LD target list will be a lot clearer at the next election however unless they get high on their own supply again. Next year's local elections will be quite interesting and there will be a lot riding on it for the Lib Dems particularly in places such as Harrogate and Somerset.
I think Taunton Deane is also a good long term prospect for the Lib Dems as they gained a majority on the district council in 2019 and wouldn't be surprised if it is now a more plausible target than Yeovil and even Wells.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iz6-6UfKa48
If Johnson doesn't award himself a non-lockdown knighthood in the New Year's Honours list, there is no justice.
As a general rule you want to give the minimum effective dose
https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1476587915966877701?t=GB-pCUvZ894xG35KNOnLuQ&s=19
A couple of years ago on New Year’s Eve we went to the Sage. Tomorrow we are stopping in with an M&S heaty up. We both agreed had we paid to do the same this year And go out we’d just write the ticket value off and stay In.
I know egg-chasing is far less popular than football but the 2003 WC win did not show up at all in the polling. If Rashford slots in the winning penalty against Denmark in the final, will people be joining the FLSoJ party the next day?
They’re more annoying than those dickheads who glued themselves to the M25 and deserve the same from the legal system.
Pre-independence, the only viable defender of the Union is SLab, and they are still stuck in self-destruct mode.
The Lib Dems must be grateful the voters of East Dunbartonshire got rid of the useless Swinson, and their party narrowly avoided the probably even worse Moran.
What the SCons have to worry about, in my view, is former Lib Dem voters who flocked to them en-masse in 2017 "returning home".
Now, i think that is fairly unlikely as anti-SNP is driving their vote and the SNP will still exist at the next election but the LD-to-SCon vote unwinding would be devastating for the SCons.
To borrow a line, it sounds like they shouldn’t have agreed to something they weren’t then going to abide by…
https://twitter.com/WalkerMarcus/status/1476599344124121091?s=20
https://www.alamy.com/a-pair-of-covenanter-tanks-half-buried-in-the-beach-at-titchwell-image179673222.html
Also reported date vs specimen date, i guess we will be well over 200k recorded cases for today on specimen date.
If they did lose three, then they'd start at 8. And then there are the boundary changes that make some of them less secure. Current boundary proposals basically abolish Tim Farron's seat. (Which is a bit harsh, as it's only slightly short of the number of constituents needed to be "in the range".)
Ultimately, the LDs need to be in the mid-teens vote share-wise, if they wish to make progress. Could they do it? Sure. Will they do it? Signs are so far not that encouraging. I suspect they'll make some small gains on the back of tactical voting, but that'll be about it.
If, for example, CON goes from 25% to 20%, that will see my seat fall to the SNP even with no extra SNP votes.
https://twitter.com/BrexitHome/status/1476259232068640780?s=20
The EU have indicated that for months
Brexit - covid - Paterson - wallpapergate - partygate - sleaze have all changed attitudes comprehensively
Now if the whole population started doing that the results would be catastrophic.....individually, on the other hand.....
Lockdown measures seem politically more unacceptable to the Conservative base and the voting public than NHS hospitalisations, and ultimately deaths.
Gift for SKS to blow
Any one of us could probably come up with a better guess if given a day to trawl Google for some basic numbers and do a few sums.
Didn't they read it before signing?
Unionism boosts the centre right vote, absent the Unionist cause the centre right would do no better in Scotland than the Moderate party does in Sweden ie an occasional win in coalition with the Liberals but most of the time it would be social democrat governments
You're going for the "Stopped Clock" award, aren't you?
I don't give a toss how many anti-vaxxers die.
The thing which baffles me is why the government continues to pander to them.
But after a murder it is important to demonstrate that the killer has had no impact on the composition of parliament
HMG need to hold their nerve.
surrendersrevises position:Travel from the UK to France
Travel Update for those transiting through France
The French government has updated the travel rules applied since 28 December 2021.
Passengers travelling from the UK, with residency permits for other EU countries under the Withdrawal Agreement, can now transit through France to return to their homes. This is subject to their journey to the UK having been completed before the 28th December 2021.
This new rule comes into force immediately.
https://www.eurotunnel.com/uk/travelling-with-us/latest/covid-19/#foca
Won’t happen before NYE anyway
1. The UK population is completely different from that of South Africa or Denmark in our susceptibility to severe disease from Omicron, or
2. The NHS in London is less able to manage an Omicron wave than the healthcare system in Johannesburg.
Either of which seems pretty unlikely.
And, unfortunately, even when an MP of the same party is re-elected, the composition of parliament has changed. MPs are still individuals with their own views and ways of doing things. Every single person is irreplaceable, and the colour of their rosette is a small detail that doesn't mean much for their vitality and worth.
2. its the nhs.....mmmm
How many of the EU's top 10 trading partners are they not in serious conflict with?
1 - China
2 - USA
3 - UK
4 - Switzerland
ASEAN
5 - Russia
6 - Turkey
7 - Japan
8 - Norway
9 - South Korea
10 - India
Just China, UK, Switzerland, Russia where there are already biggish disputes account for 50% of EU exports and 60% of imports.
Yet all Sefcovic seems to have is "WE ARE THE MASTERS OF THE UNIVERSE AND YOU WILL OBEY US !", like a Dr Who villain.