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What do the Tories do now the LDs have got their mojo back? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 23 in General
imageWhat do the Tories do now the LDs have got their mojo back? – politicalbetting.com

One of the big political developments of 2021 has been the re-emergence of the LDs as an electoral force. Winning Chesham and Amersham in June always looked like an easier task given the party started in second place, C&A voted Remain and it was in striking distance of party strongholds on the M25 making it easier for them to flood the seat with activists during the campaign.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301
    First.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    7th. Like the last LFT in the box.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    IshmaelZ said:

    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland

    More precisely the urban poor and the RCs. That's one reason why Slab hate the SNP over and above the Tories - for stealing their birthright, as they see it.

    https://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/2075/catholics-desert-labour-in-scotland-tablet-poll-reveals-
  • Govern in a good way that deserves re-election. Reconnect to the liberal Conservative principles that Boris campaigned on in 2019 that got the majority and reconnect to those voters.

    Do that and I could back them again. Fail to do so and I'll probably vote for the Lib Dems in 2024.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Tactical voting does not have to mean defeat for the Tories. There was heavy LD Tactical voting for Labour in 1992 and Labour tactical voting for LD in return but Major held on despite losing some seats, only in 1997 did it prove fatal
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,303
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Taz said:

    Tres said:

    Somebody who bullied somebody off this website is calling other people abusive, ironic.

    I don't think Charles has ever bullied or been abusive to anyone. I don't get your vendetta against him and a few others.

    A bit more tolerance of people with views different to your own would do you good. Some of the best conversations I have on this site are with people I disagree with, and some of the people I find most objectionable vote the same way I do. Its enlightening to embrace a variety of viewpoints not just a circle of likeminded people.
    I wasn't referring to Charles when I said that. I think you know exactly who I was referring to.

    I get on with plenty of people I disagree with. HYUFD, MrEd, Richard, in fact the only people I don't get on with are the bullies and those who condescend and are abusive to me and others - and I am not the first to point this out.
    Politely disagreeing with you isn't bullying you, or "shouting you down".
    A bully calling somebody else a bully. Ironic.
    I'm going to step out of the conversation as it isn't productive. You're the only one I can see calling people a bully, or insulting people. I stepped in to defend Charles after he was unfairly smeared.

    This conversation seems most unproductive. If you've got nothing nice to say about someone, don't say anything at all is a good rule of thumb.
    You bullied somebody off this website. Don't you dare try and call me a bully.
    I did no such thing.

    Someone left the website because they didn't like my opinion, politely expressed. That is not bullying. If I was bullying I'd expect to be rightly banned, but politely expressing your own opinion is never bullying even if others don't like that opinion.
    They asked you to stop engaging with them, which you ignored. So they left.
    It’s a pity this forum doesn’t have a block function for such instances.
    It would be good if you could block one and only one other contributor. The agony of that decision would be exquisite.
    I'd find it dead easy to make my choice, actually. No competition.
    Yeah, you're right, it's fucking obvious who would have to get the single bullet in the back of the dome.
    I wouldn't take it personally.
    Dura_Ace said:

    malcolmg said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Taz said:

    Somebody who bullied somebody off this website is calling other people abusive, ironic.

    I don't think Charles has ever bullied or been abusive to anyone. I don't get your vendetta against him and a few others.

    A bit more tolerance of people with views different to your own would do you good. Some of the best conversations I have on this site are with people I disagree with, and some of the people I find most objectionable vote the same way I do. Its enlightening to embrace a variety of viewpoints not just a circle of likeminded people.
    I wasn't referring to Charles when I said that. I think you know exactly who I was referring to.

    I get on with plenty of people I disagree with. HYUFD, MrEd, Richard, in fact the only people I don't get on with are the bullies and those who condescend and are abusive to me and others - and I am not the first to point this out.
    Politely disagreeing with you isn't bullying you, or "shouting you down".
    A bully calling somebody else a bully. Ironic.
    Guys, guys, look at us. Arguing. Bickering. It didn’t used to be like this.
    Hmm. I'm a fairly irregular poster, but I started posting here around five or (maybe nearer six?) years ago after years of lurking.

    I stopped posting almost entirely this year due to health issues which I've been fairly candid about, but I also stopped lurking too, so I've been absent almost an entire year.

    My perspective is that while much has stayed the same... it also seems like a much angrier, testier and less civil place to be. Spats will always happen, but they seem to go from 0 to all the way up to 11 in the blink of an eye now.

    I don't know if that is because two years of this pandemic has worn us all down to the bone and made us snappier and grouchier, or if it's something else.

    But that's my two cents, as someone who took a year's sabbatical from posting on or reading PB.
    KYF, hopefully your health has improved and welcome back. It certainly is more fractious on here nowadays, I am far calmer now mind you.
    It's the better for it. I despise the simulated civility of the English middle class and the pretence that we're all jolly good pals really.
    How are you judging what is civility and what is simulated civility? Seems like internal bias could skew the perception.

    Invective can be very useful and appropriate, but if civility and bonhomie can be simulated presumably so can coarseness, particularly if attempting to 'rebel' against 'simulated civility'.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland

    More precisely the urban poor and the RCs. That's one reason why Slab hate the SNP over and above the Tories - for stealing their birthright, as they see it.

    https://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/2075/catholics-desert-labour-in-scotland-tablet-poll-reveals-
    If we had seen a bit more tactical voting for the SNP by Labourites in 2017, Jezza could have been PM.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland

    More precisely the urban poor and the RCs. That's one reason why Slab hate the SNP over and above the Tories - for stealing their birthright, as they see it.

    https://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/2075/catholics-desert-labour-in-scotland-tablet-poll-reveals-
    If we had seen a bit more tactical voting for the SNP by Labourites in 2017, Jezza could have been PM.

    Just think of the howling from the Tories at having Mr Corbyn J. forced on them by the nasty Scots.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    I think there's a good chance we've hit 90% of 12+ with first doses, that's a milestone I didn't think we would ever get to. My guess is that the upper ceiling on this is probably around 95%, but it will take a few months to get there as people trickle. The upper ceiling on second doses is somewhere around 92% I think and it will take 5-6 months to get there though and boosters is probably about 85% which we'll get to around end of March.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,303
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland

    More precisely the urban poor and the RCs. That's one reason why Slab hate the SNP over and above the Tories - for stealing their birthright, as they see it.

    https://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/2075/catholics-desert-labour-in-scotland-tablet-poll-reveals-
    If we had seen a bit more tactical voting for the SNP by Labourites in 2017, Jezza could have been PM.

    Just think of the howling from the Tories at having Mr Corbyn J. forced on them by the nasty Scots.
    If someone genuinely backed the UK system such would have to be acknowledged as a legitimate outcome.

    I suspect howling would be more likely.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    HYUFD said:

    Tactical voting does not have to mean defeat for the Tories. There was heavy LD Tactical voting for Labour in 1992 and Labour tactical voting for LD in return but Major held on despite losing some seats, only in 1997 did it prove fatal

    Next GE is 1997 with a hint of 2017

    What should frighten you most at the moment is the fact that no 5 in the singles chart is BORIS JOHNSON IS STILL A F**KING C**T by the K**ts. Sooo reminiscent of the damage inflicted on May by cassette boy
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    IshmaelZ said:

    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland

    It's been interesting that HYUFD has been emphasising the good old shire way of life in recent months - I forget his exact expression but it's along the lines of (I paraphrase in my own words, so I apologise for getting the tone hoeplessly wrong) how right and proper it is having people who own lots of land and are the jolly old lord of the manor in charge of the local area to knuckle one's brows to, what? Slightly startling from him as there are not many country estates in Epping, still less Jane Austen bodicerippers filmed there, so maybe it is something CCHQ has been pushing.
  • Perhaps Swinney is right and Scots should stay in Scotland for NYE:



    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland

    It's been interesting that HYUFD has been emphasising the good old shire way of life in recent months - I forget his exact expression but it's along the lines of (I paraphrase in my own words, so I apologise for getting the tone hoeplessly wrong) how right and proper it is having people who own lots of land and are the jolly old lord of the manor in charge of the local area to knuckle one's brows to, what? Slightly startling from him as there are not many country estates in Epping, still less Jane Austen bodicerippers filmed there, so maybe it is something CCHQ has been pushing.
    Someone keeps posting a dreadful GK Chesterton thing about how much jollier it is being oppressed by a titled toff with a sword, than a Jewish bureaucrat. I think in practice I'd go with the bureaucrat.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tactical voting does not have to mean defeat for the Tories. There was heavy LD Tactical voting for Labour in 1992 and Labour tactical voting for LD in return but Major held on despite losing some seats, only in 1997 did it prove fatal

    Next GE is 1997 with a hint of 2017

    What should frighten you most at the moment is the fact that no 5 in the singles chart is BORIS JOHNSON IS STILL A F**KING C**T by the K**ts. Sooo reminiscent of the damage inflicted on May by cassette boy
    Wasn't the previous one around the same this time last year?
    However. This links back to the discussion FPT. Folk aren't in a good place. The PM's schtick has therefore worn off. He does many things well. Empathy and a serious air aren't two of them.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    Remarkably, Bradford is a property 'hot spot' with prices rising over 15%

    Presumably there is a variation between Manningham and Ilkley in terms of market dynamics.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    The Conservatives probably ought to assume they'll lose 20-30 seats to the LDs at the next election, mainly in the south-east of England. If they hold any of them it'll be a bonus.
  • Govern in a good way that deserves re-election. Reconnect to the liberal Conservative principles that Boris campaigned on in 2019 that got the majority and reconnect to those voters.

    Do that and I could back them again. Fail to do so and I'll probably vote for the Lib Dems in 2024.

    I think I differ from the Tories on fundamental issues of principle, and so could never vote for them, but I can see how that is the only game in town - they have to convince the electorate they are the better choice. Though I suppose that could also involve a lot of negative campaigning, and dodgy targeted adverts on facebook.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    MaxPB said:

    I think there's a good chance we've hit 90% of 12+ with first doses, that's a milestone I didn't think we would ever get to. My guess is that the upper ceiling on this is probably around 95%, but it will take a few months to get there as people trickle. The upper ceiling on second doses is somewhere around 92% I think and it will take 5-6 months to get there though and boosters is probably about 85% which we'll get to around end of March.

    This is a fabulous vaccine uptake. I think once Omi is goni the heat will go out of the debate on what to do about the refusers.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland

    It's been interesting that HYUFD has been emphasising the good old shire way of life in recent months - I forget his exact expression but it's along the lines of (I paraphrase in my own words, so I apologise for getting the tone hoeplessly wrong) how right and proper it is having people who own lots of land and are the jolly old lord of the manor in charge of the local area to knuckle one's brows to, what? Slightly startling from him as there are not many country estates in Epping, still less Jane Austen bodicerippers filmed there, so maybe it is something CCHQ has been pushing.
    I did suggest @HYUFD for poster most likely to appear in an Austen novel some years ago. @Charles demurred ISTR.
    PS. Austen wrote no bodicerippers. Nor was much of a fan of landed inheritance. As far as anyone can discern.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    There is no shortage

    LATEST Covid tests likely to be rationed in coming days to cope with 'huge demand' https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/30/covid-tests-likely-rationed-coming-days-cope-huge-demand/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tactical voting does not have to mean defeat for the Tories. There was heavy LD Tactical voting for Labour in 1992 and Labour tactical voting for LD in return but Major held on despite losing some seats, only in 1997 did it prove fatal

    Next GE is 1997 with a hint of 2017

    What should frighten you most at the moment is the fact that no 5 in the singles chart is BORIS JOHNSON IS STILL A F**KING C**T by the K**ts. Sooo reminiscent of the damage inflicted on May by cassette boy
    I am not an aficionado of that string and wind quartet, so had a look on Wiki:

    '"Boris Johnson Is a Fucking Cunt" is a British satirical punk rock single by the Kunts, a band created by the dark comedy singer Kunt and the Gang. The song is directed at British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and consists of the words "Boris Johnson is a fucking cunt" being repeated.

    Originally released on the 2020 album Kunts Punk in Your Face, the track was later released as a single, and Kunt campaigned to make the single the 2020 UK Christmas number one. The song reached number five, despite a lack of mainstream media coverage, with the BBC refusing to name either the song or the artist due to the strong language in both. In November 2021, the band announced a sequel, "Boris Johnson Is STILL a Fucking Cunt", once again campaigning to top the Christmas chart. Once again, it reached number five while facing a similar lack of media coverage.'
    There was a comment yesterday about political discourse being in the gutter.
    Hmm. It's an audience who don't buy many newspapers or look at PB, I suspect. THere is always the view that all publicity is good publicity, as the Fon of Bafut said about his portrayal by Gerald Durrell in the Bafut Beagles ...

  • PJHPJH Posts: 114
    HYUFD said:

    Tactical voting does not have to mean defeat for the Tories. There was heavy LD Tactical voting for Labour in 1992 and Labour tactical voting for LD in return but Major held on despite losing some seats, only in 1997 did it prove fatal

    It depends on the overall Tory vote share, above 40% and they win (1992), below 35% and they are beaten by a landslide (1997), irrespective of tactical voting.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    HYUFD said:

    Tactical voting does not have to mean defeat for the Tories. There was heavy LD Tactical voting for Labour in 1992 and Labour tactical voting for LD in return but Major held on despite losing some seats, only in 1997 did it prove fatal

    I said yesterday that it's unlikely the Lib Dems will win a lot of rural seats in 2023. Come 2027 however the Tory party will still be mud in rural seats whether the Tories win the 2023 election or not.

    Gove's replacement to the CAP and Truss's uniquely one-sided Australian trade deal has seen to that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think there's a good chance we've hit 90% of 12+ with first doses, that's a milestone I didn't think we would ever get to. My guess is that the upper ceiling on this is probably around 95%, but it will take a few months to get there as people trickle. The upper ceiling on second doses is somewhere around 92% I think and it will take 5-6 months to get there though and boosters is probably about 85% which we'll get to around end of March.

    This is a fabulous vaccine uptake. I think once Omi is goni the heat will go out of the debate on what to do about the refusers.
    Yes, despite the slowing since the end of the summer, the UK looks fairly well placed with vaccines, heading into the summer we should have 72% triple vaxxed in population terms and 78% double vaxxed plus potentially 40-50% quadruple vaxxed if the government rolls out fourth doses for 50+ people.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland

    It's been interesting that HYUFD has been emphasising the good old shire way of life in recent months - I forget his exact expression but it's along the lines of (I paraphrase in my own words, so I apologise for getting the tone hoeplessly wrong) how right and proper it is having people who own lots of land and are the jolly old lord of the manor in charge of the local area to knuckle one's brows to, what? Slightly startling from him as there are not many country estates in Epping, still less Jane Austen bodicerippers filmed there, so maybe it is something CCHQ has been pushing.
    I did suggest @HYUFD for poster most likely to appear in an Austen novel some years ago. @Charles demurred ISTR.
    PS. Austen wrote no bodicerippers. Nor was much of a fan of landed inheritance. As far as anyone can discern.
    More Hilary Mantell, I think; he does approve of the Henrician settlement. (Gentle joke.)

    I was thinking of the films made from her work - complete with six-packs - and hopelessly compromised in muy memory with that comedy sketch by, was it Emma Thompson?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660

    Govern in a good way that deserves re-election. Reconnect to the liberal Conservative principles that Boris campaigned on in 2019 that got the majority and reconnect to those voters.

    Do that and I could back them again. Fail to do so and I'll probably vote for the Lib Dems in 2024.

    I would like you to stop rewriting history to suit yourself.

    Johnson campaigned on Brexit. If his message had been 'vote for me and get yourself a boatload of small state and social liberalism' there'd have been no majority.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617

    Perhaps Swinney is right and Scots should stay in Scotland for NYE:



    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

    The whole country is being swamped by Covid. Finger pointing at Scotland isn't justified.

    That said, what will be interesting is looking at where the case rates are by around the end of the first week in January, once the most recently imposed sets of restrictions outside of England have had a chance to work, and we're through the New Year hiatus in reporting. If they are much of a muchness across the home nations by that point then it'll be a reasonable indication that the extra rules haven't been of much use against Omicron.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,667
    edited December 2021
    I think @MattW got it wrong on the last thread.

    G Maxwell did attend Balliol, having completed her studies at Marlborough College (a school). Wikipedia says she got her degree in 1985. Perhaps someone can confirm the precise dates... [Edit - Google reckons 82 to 85]

    That would mean she was there at the same time as BoJo (83-86), although not necessarily in the same year.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think there's a good chance we've hit 90% of 12+ with first doses, that's a milestone I didn't think we would ever get to. My guess is that the upper ceiling on this is probably around 95%, but it will take a few months to get there as people trickle. The upper ceiling on second doses is somewhere around 92% I think and it will take 5-6 months to get there though and boosters is probably about 85% which we'll get to around end of March.

    This is a fabulous vaccine uptake. I think once Omi is goni the heat will go out of the debate on what to do about the refusers.
    That assertion is heavily dependent on whether or not sickness levels amongst the refusers are high enough to bugger the hospitals and initiate another panic lockdown cycle. The willingness of the public to leave them to their own devices would, I assume, run down in direct proportion to the amount of chaos that they cause.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Disclose.tv
    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    pigeon said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think there's a good chance we've hit 90% of 12+ with first doses, that's a milestone I didn't think we would ever get to. My guess is that the upper ceiling on this is probably around 95%, but it will take a few months to get there as people trickle. The upper ceiling on second doses is somewhere around 92% I think and it will take 5-6 months to get there though and boosters is probably about 85% which we'll get to around end of March.

    This is a fabulous vaccine uptake. I think once Omi is goni the heat will go out of the debate on what to do about the refusers.
    That assertion is heavily dependent on whether or not sickness levels amongst the refusers are high enough to bugger the hospitals and initiate another panic lockdown cycle. The willingness of the public to leave them to their own devices would, I assume, run down in direct proportion to the amount of chaos that they cause.
    I don't think there's going to be many left by the time the next variant panic emerges.
  • Leon said:

    Disclose.tv
    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)

    That guy in Belgium who had 9 shots had the right idea....
  • eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tactical voting does not have to mean defeat for the Tories. There was heavy LD Tactical voting for Labour in 1992 and Labour tactical voting for LD in return but Major held on despite losing some seats, only in 1997 did it prove fatal

    I said yesterday that it's unlikely the Lib Dems will win a lot of rural seats in 2023. Come 2027 however the Tory party will still be mud in rural seats whether the Tories win the 2023 election or not.

    Gove's replacement to the CAP and Truss's uniquely one-sided Australian trade deal has seen to that.
    So are you saying that the Tories have signed a deal to enable freer trade and cheaper food for the whole country, rather than prioritising a client vote?

    Presumably people who object to "populism" will be praising this? Or is that another of Yes, Minister's irregular verbs?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Leon said:

    Disclose.tv
    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)

    I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
  • 435,293 booster & third doses of Covid-19 vaccine were reported in the UK yesterday.

    33.5 million booster/third doses have now been delivered in the UK, with 1.8 million in the past seven days.

    Around 63% of all adults in the UK have now received a booster or third dose.


    https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/1476563827470831621?s=20
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,913
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Disclose.tv
    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)

    I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
    They are doing Moderna, and aiui half dose boosters.

    Do we do that for Moderna?
  • pigeon said:

    Perhaps Swinney is right and Scots should stay in Scotland for NYE:



    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

    The whole country is being swamped by Covid. Finger pointing at Scotland isn't justified.
    Nor is the implied (and in the past, stated) finger pointing at England suggesting that COVID will be imported from it into Scotland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    IshmaelZ said:

    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland

    Labour still win the urban poor in England and Wales and won the inner cities there even in 2019. The only reason they lost it in Scotland was the SNP overtook them on the populist left, same as the only reason the Tories would lose rural areas in England is if another party overtook them on the populist right like ReformUK.

    For example they would need to be annihilated like the Canadian Tories were in 1993 when they lost rural areas in the West to the Refom party as well as suburban and commuter belt areas to the Liberals.

    Shropshire North is like Christchurch, a LD by election win in 1993 on an even bigger swing than North Shropshire that went Tory again in 1997
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland

    It's been interesting that HYUFD has been emphasising the good old shire way of life in recent months - I forget his exact expression but it's along the lines of (I paraphrase in my own words, so I apologise for getting the tone hoeplessly wrong) how right and proper it is having people who own lots of land and are the jolly old lord of the manor in charge of the local area to knuckle one's brows to, what? Slightly startling from him as there are not many country estates in Epping, still less Jane Austen bodicerippers filmed there, so maybe it is something CCHQ has been pushing.
    I did suggest @HYUFD for poster most likely to appear in an Austen novel some years ago. @Charles demurred ISTR.
    PS. Austen wrote no bodicerippers. Nor was much of a fan of landed inheritance. As far as anyone can discern.
    I don’t think I demurred.

    But she was briefly (24 hours I think) engaged to her neighbour - who lived in the house I grew up in
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Disclose.tv
    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)

    I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
    They are doing Moderna, and aiui half dose boosters.

    Do we do that for Moderna?
    Same, half doses. You get a 37x multiplier for half doses 83x for full so the half dose was seen as fine. A full Pfizer dose gets a 29x multiplier iirc, so even the half dose of Moderna is a good option. There's been chatter that the next round could be quarter doses of Moderna and half doses of Pfizer.
  • kinabalu said:

    Govern in a good way that deserves re-election. Reconnect to the liberal Conservative principles that Boris campaigned on in 2019 that got the majority and reconnect to those voters.

    Do that and I could back them again. Fail to do so and I'll probably vote for the Lib Dems in 2024.

    I would like you to stop rewriting history to suit yourself.

    Johnson campaigned on Brexit. If his message had been 'vote for me and get yourself a boatload of small state and social liberalism' there'd have been no majority.
    And if you'd read anything Boris had ever written for decades, including in the Brexit debate, then you'd have seen plenty of social liberalism and small state in it as I did.

    This article puts it very well: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/its-not-too-late-for-boris-johnson
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,083
    Lib Dems have got their mojo back. Only a Lib Dem would utter a phrase like that.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    kinabalu said:

    Govern in a good way that deserves re-election. Reconnect to the liberal Conservative principles that Boris campaigned on in 2019 that got the majority and reconnect to those voters.

    Do that and I could back them again. Fail to do so and I'll probably vote for the Lib Dems in 2024.

    I would like you to stop rewriting history to suit yourself.

    Johnson campaigned on Brexit. If his message had been 'vote for me and get yourself a boatload of small state and social liberalism' there'd have been no majority.
    Even if there were some nice liberal words uttered by Boris, the inexcusably illiberal actions taken by his government, before and after 2019 election, renders such analysis risible.

    Men truly manifest themselves in the long patterns of their acts, and not in any nutshell of self-theory.
    or, simply
    Actions speak louder than words
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    pigeon said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think there's a good chance we've hit 90% of 12+ with first doses, that's a milestone I didn't think we would ever get to. My guess is that the upper ceiling on this is probably around 95%, but it will take a few months to get there as people trickle. The upper ceiling on second doses is somewhere around 92% I think and it will take 5-6 months to get there though and boosters is probably about 85% which we'll get to around end of March.

    This is a fabulous vaccine uptake. I think once Omi is goni the heat will go out of the debate on what to do about the refusers.
    That assertion is heavily dependent on whether or not sickness levels amongst the refusers are high enough to bugger the hospitals and initiate another panic lockdown cycle. The willingness of the public to leave them to their own devices would, I assume, run down in direct proportion to the amount of chaos that they cause.
    Yes, it flows from my view that once this Omicron wave has passed we'll see a swift return to normality and Covid will fade as a domestic story. If I'm wrong on that I'll probably be wrong on this. But I'm not usually wrong. :smile:
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland

    It's been interesting that HYUFD has been emphasising the good old shire way of life in recent months - I forget his exact expression but it's along the lines of (I paraphrase in my own words, so I apologise for getting the tone hoeplessly wrong) how right and proper it is having people who own lots of land and are the jolly old lord of the manor in charge of the local area to knuckle one's brows to, what? Slightly startling from him as there are not many country estates in Epping, still less Jane Austen bodicerippers filmed there, so maybe it is something CCHQ has been pushing.
    I did suggest @HYUFD for poster most likely to appear in an Austen novel some years ago. @Charles demurred ISTR.
    PS. Austen wrote no bodicerippers. Nor was much of a fan of landed inheritance. As far as anyone can discern.
    I don’t think I demurred.

    But she was briefly (24 hours I think) engaged to her neighbour - who lived in the house I grew up in
    Alton? Very nice place. A friend lived there - amused himself by showing me where Fanny Adams was murdered, down at the bottom of his garden.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 907
    edited December 2021
    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    Govern in a good way that deserves re-election. Reconnect to the liberal Conservative principles that Boris campaigned on in 2019 that got the majority and reconnect to those voters.

    Do that and I could back them again. Fail to do so and I'll probably vote for the Lib Dems in 2024.

    I would like you to stop rewriting history to suit yourself.

    Johnson campaigned on Brexit. If his message had been 'vote for me and get yourself a boatload of small state and social liberalism' there'd have been no majority.
    Even if there were some nice liberal words uttered by Boris, the inexcusably illiberal actions taken by his government, before and after 2019 election, renders such analysis risible.

    Men truly manifest themselves in the long patterns of their acts, and not in any nutshell of self-theory.
    or, simply
    Actions speak louder than words
    How does that render it risible? You're merely reaffirming my own point!

    The illiberal actions post 2019 election are precisely why I've stopped supporting him.

    Stop being illiberal, get back to what was being said and start putting actions behind the words and I'll happily support him again despite this midterm wobble.

    Continue down this path of illiberalism and I'll hold my nose and vote for Ed Davey's party.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland

    Labour still win the urban poor in England and Wales and won the inner cities there even in 2019. The only reason they lost it in Scotland was the SNP overtook them on the populist left, same as the only reason the Tories would lose rural areas in England is if another party overtook them on the populist right like ReformUK.

    For example they would need to be annihilated like the Canadian Tories were in 1993 when they lost rural areas in the West to the Refom party as well as suburban and commuter belt areas to the Liberals.

    Shropshire North is like Christchurch, a LD by election win in 1993 on an even bigger swing than North Shropshire that went Tory again in 1997
    Why do you make the assumption that in the rural areas it would need a right wing party such as Reform for the Tories to lose those areas.

    I would refer you to Tim Farron who sits in what should by any criteria you use be a very safe Tory - even more so than say Richmond (Yorks).
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,656
    pigeon said:

    Perhaps Swinney is right and Scots should stay in Scotland for NYE:



    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

    The whole country is being swamped by Covid. Finger pointing at Scotland isn't justified.

    That said, what will be interesting is looking at where the case rates are by around the end of the first week in January, once the most recently imposed sets of restrictions outside of England have had a chance to work, and we're through the New Year hiatus in reporting. If they are much of a muchness across the home nations by that point then it'll be a reasonable indication that the extra rules haven't been of much use against Omicron.
    Doesn’t stop Sturgeon - or Drakeford - finger pointing at Westminster
  • MaxPB said:

    I think there's a good chance we've hit 90% of 12+ with first doses, that's a milestone I didn't think we would ever get to. My guess is that the upper ceiling on this is probably around 95%, but it will take a few months to get there as people trickle. The upper ceiling on second doses is somewhere around 92% I think and it will take 5-6 months to get there though and boosters is probably about 85% which we'll get to around end of March.

    Do we know if/how they're taking account people who have died when calculating the vaccination percentages ?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689

    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    Govern in a good way that deserves re-election. Reconnect to the liberal Conservative principles that Boris campaigned on in 2019 that got the majority and reconnect to those voters.

    Do that and I could back them again. Fail to do so and I'll probably vote for the Lib Dems in 2024.

    I would like you to stop rewriting history to suit yourself.

    Johnson campaigned on Brexit. If his message had been 'vote for me and get yourself a boatload of small state and social liberalism' there'd have been no majority.
    Even if there were some nice liberal words uttered by Boris, the inexcusably illiberal actions taken by his government, before and after 2019 election, renders such analysis risible.

    Men truly manifest themselves in the long patterns of their acts, and not in any nutshell of self-theory.
    or, simply
    Actions speak louder than words
    How does that render it risible? You're merely reaffirming my own point!

    The illiberal actions post 2019 election are precisely why I've stopped supporting him.

    Stop being illiberal, get back to what was being said and start putting actions behind the words and I'll happily support him again despite this midterm wobble.

    Continue down this path of illiberalism and I'll hold my nose and vote for Ed Davey's party.
    I think you probably missed "before" and "before and after [the] 2019 election".

    I tend to take people at their word until such a point they have demonstrated the opposite through their actions.
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    Govern in a good way that deserves re-election. Reconnect to the liberal Conservative principles that Boris campaigned on in 2019 that got the majority and reconnect to those voters.

    Do that and I could back them again. Fail to do so and I'll probably vote for the Lib Dems in 2024.

    I would like you to stop rewriting history to suit yourself.

    Johnson campaigned on Brexit. If his message had been 'vote for me and get yourself a boatload of small state and social liberalism' there'd have been no majority.
    Even if there were some nice liberal words uttered by Boris, the inexcusably illiberal actions taken by his government, before and after 2019 election, renders such analysis risible.

    Men truly manifest themselves in the long patterns of their acts, and not in any nutshell of self-theory.
    or, simply
    Actions speak louder than words
    How does that render it risible? You're merely reaffirming my own point!

    The illiberal actions post 2019 election are precisely why I've stopped supporting him.

    Stop being illiberal, get back to what was being said and start putting actions behind the words and I'll happily support him again despite this midterm wobble.

    Continue down this path of illiberalism and I'll hold my nose and vote for Ed Davey's party.
    I think you probably missed "before" and "before and after [the] 2019 election".

    I tend to take people at their word until such a point they have demonstrated the opposite through their actions.
    I read the before but was a bit confused about it, considering this Government was only formed in July 2019 and the death of the 2017-19 Parliament was almost entirely dominated by Brexit divisions. What illiberal actions were implemented between July 2019 and the election in December 2019?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    MaxPB said:

    I think there's a good chance we've hit 90% of 12+ with first doses, that's a milestone I didn't think we would ever get to. My guess is that the upper ceiling on this is probably around 95%, but it will take a few months to get there as people trickle. The upper ceiling on second doses is somewhere around 92% I think and it will take 5-6 months to get there though and boosters is probably about 85% which we'll get to around end of March.

    Do we know if/how they're taking account people who have died when calculating the vaccination percentages ?
    I've recently used the Tell Us Once service when a relative died and I had to wrap up their affairs, so one would think this one-stop government scheme would deal with the NHS. Rather surprisingly on checking this scheme doesn't include the NHS, so how does the NHS know someone has died? In my relative's case, the ambulance team certified his demise, and his GP had to be consulted by the registrar anyway, but I'm not sure if there was any actual central change to the records.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651
    Afternoon all :)

    Another desperately quiet day at work and I come on here to find a nice thread about the Liberal Democrats which is always welcome.

    North Shropshire has undeniably given both the party and Ed Davey a real boost. Davey now has two by-election gains to his credit and let's not forget he's a fighter having lost Kingston & Surbiton in the 2015 catastrophe, he went and won it back in 2017 and now has a healthy 10,000 majority. He's the only LD MP who lost his seat in 2015, regained it in 2017 and held on in 2019 (both Jo Swinson and Stephen Lloyd regained seats lost in 2015 at the next GE but lost at the last GE).

    All isn't sweetness and light - the poll ratings remain modest at this time and I suspect there are islands of activity between vast oceans of constituencies where there is no meaningful LD presence.

    As an example, the LDs hold 152 council seats in London but 109 of those are in Sutton, Kingston and Richmond which means only 43 seats in the remaining Boroughs and large numbers with no LD presence at all. I'm all for targeting resources but the party needs to start getting into new areas and building strength and winning seats.

    Take a borough like Bromley - in 1998, the Liberal Democrats won 25 seats and for a short while ran the council with Labour - in 2014, the last councillors were defeated. That's the scale of the rebuilding that still needs to start seven years after the end of the Coalition.

    There will be those who ask for what the Liberal Democrats stand - actually, that's not very important now - it's enough to be a home for disillusioned Conservatives (of whom there seem to be many currently) but there will come a point when the party will need to articulate its USP in a crowded market. They've made a good start opposing some of the proposed restrictions and no one talks about re-joining the EU or any of that nonsense.

    In the same way, talking about the relationship with Starmer's Labour isn't all that important either. Both parties are fishing in different ponds for the same fish and it doesn't much matter on whose hook they end up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Disclose.tv
    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)

    I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
    They are doing Moderna, and aiui half dose boosters.

    Do we do that for Moderna?
    Same, half doses. You get a 37x multiplier for half doses 83x for full so the half dose was seen as fine. A full Pfizer dose gets a 29x multiplier iirc, so even the half dose of Moderna is a good option. There's been chatter that the next round could be quarter doses of Moderna and half doses of Pfizer.
    1/4 Moderna or 1/2 Pfizer every 6-9 months might be the ticket.
  • Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Disclose.tv
    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)

    I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
    They are doing Moderna, and aiui half dose boosters.

    Do we do that for Moderna?
    Same, half doses. You get a 37x multiplier for half doses 83x for full so the half dose was seen as fine. A full Pfizer dose gets a 29x multiplier iirc, so even the half dose of Moderna is a good option. There's been chatter that the next round could be quarter doses of Moderna and half doses of Pfizer.
    1/4 Moderna or 1/2 Pfizer every 6-9 months might be the ticket.
    Besides conserving doses for cost or supply purposes, what reason is there to only give a fractional dose instead of a full dose?
  • pigeon said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think there's a good chance we've hit 90% of 12+ with first doses, that's a milestone I didn't think we would ever get to. My guess is that the upper ceiling on this is probably around 95%, but it will take a few months to get there as people trickle. The upper ceiling on second doses is somewhere around 92% I think and it will take 5-6 months to get there though and boosters is probably about 85% which we'll get to around end of March.

    This is a fabulous vaccine uptake. I think once Omi is goni the heat will go out of the debate on what to do about the refusers.
    That assertion is heavily dependent on whether or not sickness levels amongst the refusers are high enough to bugger the hospitals and initiate another panic lockdown cycle. The willingness of the public to leave them to their own devices would, I assume, run down in direct proportion to the amount of chaos that they cause.
    i think thats a highly unlikely scenario...there are not enough refusers
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,681
    HYUFD said:

    Tactical voting does not have to mean defeat for the Tories. There was heavy LD Tactical voting for Labour in 1992 and Labour tactical voting for LD in return but Major held on despite losing some seats, only in 1997 did it prove fatal

    I don't think there was any extra fatality to the Tories over what Blair delivered.....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,913
    edited December 2021
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Another desperately quiet day at work and I come on here to find a nice thread about the Liberal Democrats which is always welcome.

    North Shropshire has undeniably given both the party and Ed Davey a real boost. Davey now has two by-election gains to his credit and let's not forget he's a fighter having lost Kingston & Surbiton in the 2015 catastrophe, he went and won it back in 2017 and now has a healthy 10,000 majority. He's the only LD MP who lost his seat in 2015, regained it in 2017 and held on in 2019 (both Jo Swinson and Stephen Lloyd regained seats lost in 2015 at the next GE but lost at the last GE).

    All isn't sweetness and light - the poll ratings remain modest at this time and I suspect there are islands of activity between vast oceans of constituencies where there is no meaningful LD presence.

    As an example, the LDs hold 152 council seats in London but 109 of those are in Sutton, Kingston and Richmond which means only 43 seats in the remaining Boroughs and large numbers with no LD presence at all. I'm all for targeting resources but the party needs to start getting into new areas and building strength and winning seats.

    Take a borough like Bromley - in 1998, the Liberal Democrats won 25 seats and for a short while ran the council with Labour - in 2014, the last councillors were defeated. That's the scale of the rebuilding that still needs to start seven years after the end of the Coalition.

    There will be those who ask for what the Liberal Democrats stand - actually, that's not very important now - it's enough to be a home for disillusioned Conservatives (of whom there seem to be many currently) but there will come a point when the party will need to articulate its USP in a crowded market. They've made a good start opposing some of the proposed restrictions and no one talks about re-joining the EU or any of that nonsense.

    In the same way, talking about the relationship with Starmer's Labour isn't all that important either. Both parties are fishing in different ponds for the same fish and it doesn't much matter on whose hook they end up.

    FAir comment.

    It's interest looking at Farron's seat - I was wondering if it is a Nonconformist area (to an extent), but it took the LDs years of work pre-Farron to win it, and is a a LD-Tory marginal much of the time recently.

    Current majority 1934.



    He needs a swing in the current direction to make it safe.
  • HYUFD said:

    Tactical voting does not have to mean defeat for the Tories. There was heavy LD Tactical voting for Labour in 1992 and Labour tactical voting for LD in return but Major held on despite losing some seats, only in 1997 did it prove fatal

    I don't think there was any extra fatality to the Tories over what Blair delivered.....
    Nor than what Major, "the bastards" and the Tories in general delivered too .....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,018

    Lib Dems have got their mojo back. Only a Lib Dem would utter a phrase like that.

    The LDs will only gain about 10 seats in the next GE IMO, especially if voters think they will support a Lab Government
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    Happily on topic 😁. Really Nice header. Lib Dems with mojo and Jade with 100% record at political bets after taking derision when first put the bet on.

    It was never in doubt in my mind 👍🏻 Like who’d vote Boris ever again? All the everyday people, most brainy people, and idiot anti vaxxers all say he’s a liar. So that’s everyone then.

    Interesting day all part of things I listed out to do this week. Went up on moor to show my other half the spot where I posed naked on a cross for an art class. Couldn’t be sure of exact spot, I remembered it felt like the highest spot on ganderhill but couldn’t decide what it was today. It’s Christmas drizzly and windy but totally maffin now than Sunday in May few years ago when I did it, very grey and sleet on the ground that day, I was freezing even before taking my duffel coat and jeans off.

    I explained I couldn’t hold my arms up long they were really hurting, the heather not good to dance through in bare foot. And like grouse humming in laughing way at me on wind. we listened for some and couldn’t hear them. I don’t know why, I thought she’d be more interested in my wacky money making past adventures. She said that was mad, and you are still just as mad, in her poshest private girls school accent. Then we came back down to car and got some groceries. 🤷‍♀️
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,913
    edited December 2021

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Disclose.tv
    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)

    I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
    They are doing Moderna, and aiui half dose boosters.

    Do we do that for Moderna?
    Same, half doses. You get a 37x multiplier for half doses 83x for full so the half dose was seen as fine. A full Pfizer dose gets a 29x multiplier iirc, so even the half dose of Moderna is a good option. There's been chatter that the next round could be quarter doses of Moderna and half doses of Pfizer.
    1/4 Moderna or 1/2 Pfizer every 6-9 months might be the ticket.
    Besides conserving doses for cost or supply purposes, what reason is there to only give a fractional dose instead of a full dose?
    Money saving?

    £10 of Moderna not £20 for a full dose?

    Multiplied by 50 million that's quite a lot, if that is how the pricing work.

    That is twice what we have invested in the UK National Vaccine Centre, which is now being flogged off by Boris and Rishi.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689

    Lib Dems have got their mojo back. Only a Lib Dem would utter a phrase like that.

    The LDs will only gain about 10 seats in the next GE IMO, especially if voters think they will support a Lab Government
    Lots of water to go under the bridge between now and then, but polling suggests that right now a Labour led government is what more people want than a Conservative led one.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,018
    Farooq said:

    Lib Dems have got their mojo back. Only a Lib Dem would utter a phrase like that.

    The LDs will only gain about 10 seats in the next GE IMO, especially if voters think they will support a Lab Government
    Lots of water to go under the bridge between now and then, but polling suggests that right now a Labour led government is what more people want than a Conservative led one.
    Not in Tory LD marginals it's not.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,380

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland

    More precisely the urban poor and the RCs. That's one reason why Slab hate the SNP over and above the Tories - for stealing their birthright, as they see it.

    https://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/2075/catholics-desert-labour-in-scotland-tablet-poll-reveals-
    If we had seen a bit more tactical voting for the SNP by Labourites in 2017, Jezza could have been PM.

    That would have been fun.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 139

    pigeon said:

    Perhaps Swinney is right and Scots should stay in Scotland for NYE:



    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

    The whole country is being swamped by Covid. Finger pointing at Scotland isn't justified.

    That said, what will be interesting is looking at where the case rates are by around the end of the first week in January, once the most recently imposed sets of restrictions outside of England have had a chance to work, and we're through the New Year hiatus in reporting. If they are much of a muchness across the home nations by that point then it'll be a reasonable indication that the extra rules haven't been of much use against Omicron.
    Doesn’t stop Sturgeon - or Drakeford - finger pointing at Westminster
    Do we even need Wales and Scotland?

    Hasn't France had tough regulations for a while? Still got 200k cases. Just brought in outdoor masks. That'll crack it.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    Farooq said:

    Lib Dems have got their mojo back. Only a Lib Dem would utter a phrase like that.

    The LDs will only gain about 10 seats in the next GE IMO, especially if voters think they will support a Lab Government
    Lots of water to go under the bridge between now and then, but polling suggests that right now a Labour led government is what more people want than a Conservative led one.
    Not in Tory LD marginals it's not.
    Any evidence to back up your viewpoint.

    As a left wing Corbynite I'm not sure how plausible your argument is...
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    Govern in a good way that deserves re-election. Reconnect to the liberal Conservative principles that Boris campaigned on in 2019 that got the majority and reconnect to those voters.

    Do that and I could back them again. Fail to do so and I'll probably vote for the Lib Dems in 2024.

    I would like you to stop rewriting history to suit yourself.

    Johnson campaigned on Brexit. If his message had been 'vote for me and get yourself a boatload of small state and social liberalism' there'd have been no majority.
    Even if there were some nice liberal words uttered by Boris, the inexcusably illiberal actions taken by his government, before and after 2019 election, renders such analysis risible.

    Men truly manifest themselves in the long patterns of their acts, and not in any nutshell of self-theory.
    or, simply
    Actions speak louder than words
    How does that render it risible? You're merely reaffirming my own point!

    The illiberal actions post 2019 election are precisely why I've stopped supporting him.

    Stop being illiberal, get back to what was being said and start putting actions behind the words and I'll happily support him again despite this midterm wobble.

    Continue down this path of illiberalism and I'll hold my nose and vote for Ed Davey's party.
    I think you probably missed "before" and "before and after [the] 2019 election".

    I tend to take people at their word until such a point they have demonstrated the opposite through their actions.
    I read the before but was a bit confused about it, considering this Government was only formed in July 2019 and the death of the 2017-19 Parliament was almost entirely dominated by Brexit divisions. What illiberal actions were implemented between July 2019 and the election in December 2019?
    Boris Johnson's government has frequently demonstrated a centralising tendency and undertaken frequent attacks any who might hold him accountable. Amongst these were the wide ranging purge of party members, the illegal prorogation of parliament, the threats against some media outlets, and the attacks on the independence of the judicial system.

    All of these things done by Boris Johnson himself, and often amplified by the ministers of his government.

    The man sometimes talks like a liberal, but frequently does not act like one. None of these facts is new or even controversial. Many have voiced support for these actions whilst attacking liberalism, which is fair enough although not what I want from a politician, because I'm certainly a small-l liberal. It's a little disconcerting when people illiberality under the flag of liberalism.
    So nothing really then?

    There was no 'radical purge' of party members. There was a three line whip on a confidence vote over Europe exactly as John Major did with the Maastricht vote in 1993. Just as Major did in 1993 and following precedent of decades, anyone who failed to vote with the Party on that confidence motion lost the whip and they were informed in advance that was going to happen too. "The bastards" all-but-one got in line in 1993 and the only one that didn't lost the whip, the same happened to 2019's "bastards" who brought the loss of the whip upon themselves.

    According to the English High Court at the time there was no "illegal prorogation of Parliament", the English High Court ruled the prorogation was entirely legal and it again followed precedent. The Supreme Court invented new case law that rendered it void so Parliament was immediately recalled as a result. Nothing illiberal or shocking about that.

    I don't recall any "threats" against the media or the judicial system either so can't respond to those. It seems to me we have a vigorous media and the judicial systems independence clearly still exists which is why the Supreme Court was able to invent new rules to render the prorogation void.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    edited December 2021

    kinabalu said:

    Govern in a good way that deserves re-election. Reconnect to the liberal Conservative principles that Boris campaigned on in 2019 that got the majority and reconnect to those voters.

    Do that and I could back them again. Fail to do so and I'll probably vote for the Lib Dems in 2024.

    I would like you to stop rewriting history to suit yourself.

    Johnson campaigned on Brexit. If his message had been 'vote for me and get yourself a boatload of small state and social liberalism' there'd have been no majority.
    And if you'd read anything Boris had ever written for decades, including in the Brexit debate, then you'd have seen plenty of social liberalism and small state in it as I did.

    This article puts it very well: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/its-not-too-late-for-boris-johnson
    My longstanding assessment of Boris Johnson is freestyling opportunist with no principles of any kind to speak of. I consider this to be more fact than opinion these days and I'm frankly quite surprised you haven't come round to it yourself. I think you're going to have to before too long. Galling as it must be you're going to have to admit you were conned by him. In fact, since you aren't stupid, I'm pretty sure you already admit this - albeit for now only to yourself. The PB baring of the soul, the bitter lament about the fool he made of you, will come in due course. And when it does my hat will levitate.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Disclose.tv
    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)

    I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
    They are doing Moderna, and aiui half dose boosters.

    Do we do that for Moderna?
    Same, half doses. You get a 37x multiplier for half doses 83x for full so the half dose was seen as fine. A full Pfizer dose gets a 29x multiplier iirc, so even the half dose of Moderna is a good option. There's been chatter that the next round could be quarter doses of Moderna and half doses of Pfizer.
    1/4 Moderna or 1/2 Pfizer every 6-9 months might be the ticket.
    And it would enable us to step up the supply of vaccines to those countries having difficulty in obtaining them.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 583
    If that is the case and they have their MOJO back they need to fight Southend West, as do Labour, otherwise their MOJO could stall amid a massive Reform Party vote.
    Suggest this issue is worth a thread on its won.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland

    Labour still win the urban poor in England and Wales and won the inner cities there even in 2019. The only reason they lost it in Scotland was the SNP overtook them on the populist left, same as the only reason the Tories would lose rural areas in England is if another party overtook them on the populist right like ReformUK.

    For example they would need to be annihilated like the Canadian Tories were in 1993 when they lost rural areas in the West to the Refom party as well as suburban and commuter belt areas to the Liberals.

    Shropshire North is like Christchurch, a LD by election win in 1993 on an even bigger swing than North Shropshire that went Tory again in 1997
    Why do you make the assumption that in the rural areas it would need a right wing party such as Reform for the Tories to lose those areas.

    I would refer you to Tim Farron who sits in what should by any criteria you use be a very safe Tory - even more so than say Richmond (Yorks).
    @HYUFD makes that assumption because that's what he would do, that's the way he thinks.

    Most of the (many) Tories I meet here in North Dorset are centre-right, often appalled by the current incumbent of No 10, would probably never vote Labour or Reform but might well be minded to vote LD or abstain if Johnson is still PM come the next GE.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    MISTY said:


    Do we even need Wales and Scotland?

    No, we don't. And we don't need you, either. But here you are anyway and I guess we'll all just have to live with that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Disclose.tv
    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)

    I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
    They are doing Moderna, and aiui half dose boosters.

    Do we do that for Moderna?
    Same, half doses. You get a 37x multiplier for half doses 83x for full so the half dose was seen as fine. A full Pfizer dose gets a 29x multiplier iirc, so even the half dose of Moderna is a good option. There's been chatter that the next round could be quarter doses of Moderna and half doses of Pfizer.
    1/4 Moderna or 1/2 Pfizer every 6-9 months might be the ticket.
    Besides conserving doses for cost or supply purposes, what reason is there to only give a fractional dose instead of a full dose?
    Full doses don't seem necessary for boosters and it eases the global supply crunch of vaccines. Again, this is something that the WHO should be talking about. Rather than just blanket refuse to acknowledge that western nations will absolutely do as many boosters as possible, they should be trying to direct western countries into using lesser dosing to get maximum effect. All of Europe could potentially be covered by just 125m Moderna full doses for boosters if we cut them in four and the annual requirement could be just 250m full doses. That leaves a lot of manufacturing capacity for other countries to get on with their first and second doses.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland

    Labour still win the urban poor in England and Wales and won the inner cities there even in 2019. The only reason they lost it in Scotland was the SNP overtook them on the populist left, same as the only reason the Tories would lose rural areas in England is if another party overtook them on the populist right like ReformUK.

    For example they would need to be annihilated like the Canadian Tories were in 1993 when they lost rural areas in the West to the Refom party as well as suburban and commuter belt areas to the Liberals.

    Shropshire North is like Christchurch, a LD by election win in 1993 on an even bigger swing than North Shropshire that went Tory again in 1997
    Why do you make the assumption that in the rural areas it would need a right wing party such as Reform for the Tories to lose those areas.

    I would refer you to Tim Farron who sits in what should by any criteria you use be a very safe Tory - even more so than say Richmond (Yorks).
    Because rightwing parties always win most rural areas across the western world and left liberal parties always win most inner city areas. Thus the only way the Tories would lose most rural areas is if a rightwing populist party overtook them like Reform beat the Canadian Tories in rural areas in 1993 or Le Pen beat Fillon in rural areas in round 1 of the French 2017 presidential election.

    Tim Farron was virtually the only non Tory MP in rural England in 2019, using him as an example is about as useful as saying the Tories won Cities of London and Westminster and Chelsea and Fulham in 2019 and therefore could sweep inner London next time!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 35,025
    pigeon said:

    Perhaps Swinney is right and Scots should stay in Scotland for NYE:



    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

    The whole country is being swamped by Covid. Finger pointing at Scotland isn't justified.

    That said, what will be interesting is looking at where the case rates are by around the end of the first week in January, once the most recently imposed sets of restrictions outside of England have had a chance to work, and we're through the New Year hiatus in reporting. If they are much of a muchness across the home nations by that point then it'll be a reasonable indication that the extra rules haven't been of much use against Omicron.
    We are talking Carlotta here, she would kill her granny if she could make it be a bad thing for Scotland
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
  • MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Disclose.tv
    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)

    I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
    They are doing Moderna, and aiui half dose boosters.

    Do we do that for Moderna?
    Same, half doses. You get a 37x multiplier for half doses 83x for full so the half dose was seen as fine. A full Pfizer dose gets a 29x multiplier iirc, so even the half dose of Moderna is a good option. There's been chatter that the next round could be quarter doses of Moderna and half doses of Pfizer.
    1/4 Moderna or 1/2 Pfizer every 6-9 months might be the ticket.
    Besides conserving doses for cost or supply purposes, what reason is there to only give a fractional dose instead of a full dose?
    Full doses don't seem necessary for boosters and it eases the global supply crunch of vaccines. Again, this is something that the WHO should be talking about. Rather than just blanket refuse to acknowledge that western nations will absolutely do as many boosters as possible, they should be trying to direct western countries into using lesser dosing to get maximum effect. All of Europe could potentially be covered by just 125m Moderna full doses for boosters if we cut them in four and the annual requirement could be just 250m full doses. That leaves a lot of manufacturing capacity for other countries to get on with their first and second doses.
    Though given frequent reports of countries like Nigeria throwing out expired vaccines is there even a global supply shortage anymore?

    It seems we've run even in the third world into an issue of whether people can be convinced to get the vaccine (or logistical issues in distributing it) rather than whether they can be manufactured fast enough.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland

    Labour still win the urban poor in England and Wales and won the inner cities there even in 2019. The only reason they lost it in Scotland was the SNP overtook them on the populist left, same as the only reason the Tories would lose rural areas in England is if another party overtook them on the populist right like ReformUK.

    For example they would need to be annihilated like the Canadian Tories were in 1993 when they lost rural areas in the West to the Refom party as well as suburban and commuter belt areas to the Liberals.

    Shropshire North is like Christchurch, a LD by election win in 1993 on an even bigger swing than North Shropshire that went Tory again in 1997
    Why do you make the assumption that in the rural areas it would need a right wing party such as Reform for the Tories to lose those areas.

    I would refer you to Tim Farron who sits in what should by any criteria you use be a very safe Tory - even more so than say Richmond (Yorks).
    @HYUFD makes that assumption because that's what he would do, that's the way he thinks.

    Most of the (many) Tories I meet here in North Dorset are centre-right, often appalled by the current incumbent of No 10, would probably never vote Labour or Reform but might well be minded to vote LD or abstain if Johnson is still PM come the next GE.
    Quite. I am in Cox's constituency in Devon. He has a maj of 25,000, but it was LD till 2005
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Disclose.tv
    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)

    I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
    They are doing Moderna, and aiui half dose boosters.

    Do we do that for Moderna?
    Same, half doses. You get a 37x multiplier for half doses 83x for full so the half dose was seen as fine. A full Pfizer dose gets a 29x multiplier iirc, so even the half dose of Moderna is a good option. There's been chatter that the next round could be quarter doses of Moderna and half doses of Pfizer.
    1/4 Moderna or 1/2 Pfizer every 6-9 months might be the ticket.
    Besides conserving doses for cost or supply purposes, what reason is there to only give a fractional dose instead of a full dose?
    Full doses don't seem necessary for boosters and it eases the global supply crunch of vaccines. Again, this is something that the WHO should be talking about. Rather than just blanket refuse to acknowledge that western nations will absolutely do as many boosters as possible, they should be trying to direct western countries into using lesser dosing to get maximum effect. All of Europe could potentially be covered by just 125m Moderna full doses for boosters if we cut them in four and the annual requirement could be just 250m full doses. That leaves a lot of manufacturing capacity for other countries to get on with their first and second doses.
    Though given frequent reports of countries like Nigeria throwing out expired vaccines is there even a global supply shortage anymore?

    It seems we've run even in the third world into an issue of whether people can be convinced to get the vaccine (or logistical issues in distributing it) rather than whether they can be manufactured fast enough.
    Asia has got a big supply crunch right now, especially with countries having to source western vaccines now that the Chinese ones are completely useless against Omicron.
  • theakes said:

    If that is the case and they have their MOJO back they need to fight Southend West, as do Labour, otherwise their MOJO could stall amid a massive Reform Party vote.
    Suggest this issue is worth a thread on its won.

    I agreee
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Disclose.tv
    @disclosetv
    JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)

    I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
    They are doing Moderna, and aiui half dose boosters.

    Do we do that for Moderna?
    Same, half doses. You get a 37x multiplier for half doses 83x for full so the half dose was seen as fine. A full Pfizer dose gets a 29x multiplier iirc, so even the half dose of Moderna is a good option. There's been chatter that the next round could be quarter doses of Moderna and half doses of Pfizer.
    1/4 Moderna or 1/2 Pfizer every 6-9 months might be the ticket.
    Besides conserving doses for cost or supply purposes, what reason is there to only give a fractional dose instead of a full dose?
    Full doses don't seem necessary for boosters and it eases the global supply crunch of vaccines. Again, this is something that the WHO should be talking about. Rather than just blanket refuse to acknowledge that western nations will absolutely do as many boosters as possible, they should be trying to direct western countries into using lesser dosing to get maximum effect. All of Europe could potentially be covered by just 125m Moderna full doses for boosters if we cut them in four and the annual requirement could be just 250m full doses. That leaves a lot of manufacturing capacity for other countries to get on with their first and second doses.
    I also think that the studies coming out now about cross-immunity of the immune memory suggests we wont all need boosters, and can perhaps focus on those who need them.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    edited December 2021

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    Govern in a good way that deserves re-election. Reconnect to the liberal Conservative principles that Boris campaigned on in 2019 that got the majority and reconnect to those voters.

    Do that and I could back them again. Fail to do so and I'll probably vote for the Lib Dems in 2024.

    I would like you to stop rewriting history to suit yourself.

    Johnson campaigned on Brexit. If his message had been 'vote for me and get yourself a boatload of small state and social liberalism' there'd have been no majority.
    Even if there were some nice liberal words uttered by Boris, the inexcusably illiberal actions taken by his government, before and after 2019 election, renders such analysis risible.

    Men truly manifest themselves in the long patterns of their acts, and not in any nutshell of self-theory.
    or, simply
    Actions speak louder than words
    How does that render it risible? You're merely reaffirming my own point!

    The illiberal actions post 2019 election are precisely why I've stopped supporting him.

    Stop being illiberal, get back to what was being said and start putting actions behind the words and I'll happily support him again despite this midterm wobble.

    Continue down this path of illiberalism and I'll hold my nose and vote for Ed Davey's party.
    I think you probably missed "before" and "before and after [the] 2019 election".

    I tend to take people at their word until such a point they have demonstrated the opposite through their actions.
    I read the before but was a bit confused about it, considering this Government was only formed in July 2019 and the death of the 2017-19 Parliament was almost entirely dominated by Brexit divisions. What illiberal actions were implemented between July 2019 and the election in December 2019?
    Boris Johnson's government has frequently demonstrated a centralising tendency and undertaken frequent attacks any who might hold him accountable. Amongst these were the wide ranging purge of party members, the illegal prorogation of parliament, the threats against some media outlets, and the attacks on the independence of the judicial system.

    All of these things done by Boris Johnson himself, and often amplified by the ministers of his government.

    The man sometimes talks like a liberal, but frequently does not act like one. None of these facts is new or even controversial. Many have voiced support for these actions whilst attacking liberalism, which is fair enough although not what I want from a politician, because I'm certainly a small-l liberal. It's a little disconcerting when people illiberality under the flag of liberalism.
    So nothing really then?

    There was no 'radical purge' of party members. There was a three line whip on a confidence vote over Europe exactly as John Major did with the Maastricht vote in 1993. Just as Major did in 1993 and following precedent of decades, anyone who failed to vote with the Party on that confidence motion lost the whip and they were informed in advance that was going to happen too. "The bastards" all-but-one got in line in 1993 and the only one that didn't lost the whip, the same happened to 2019's "bastards" who brought the loss of the whip upon themselves.

    According to the English High Court at the time there was no "illegal prorogation of Parliament", the English High Court ruled the prorogation was entirely legal and it again followed precedent. The Supreme Court invented new case law that rendered it void so Parliament was immediately recalled as a result. Nothing illiberal or shocking about that.

    I don't recall any "threats" against the media or the judicial system either so can't respond to those. It seems to me we have a vigorous media and the judicial systems independence clearly still exists which is why the Supreme Court was able to invent new rules to render the prorogation void.
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I understand that the Divisional Court in England concluded that the prorogation was not justiciable, not that it was "entirely legal and it again followed precedent".

    In any case, the Supreme Court said it was illegal. We have separation of powers in this country and that is part of the backbone of liberalism. We should be proud of that, not attacking it. The fact that it was embarrassing and problematic for the government is a sign of it working, but we were treated for a long pattern of anger against the courts from Johnson and his acolytes over the issue. The mature thing to do when the law has found you in the wrong is to dust yourself off and try not to make the same mistake again, instead of bitching about it and having your cronies threaten to make the Supreme Court appointed like in the USA.
  • The last daily #OmicronVariant overview will be reported on Friday 31 December. As data has shown that Omicron cases now constitute more than 90% of all community COVID-19 cases in England, our daily dashboard will provide the most updated info on COVID-19 case figures.

    https://twitter.com/UKHSA/status/1476566682076434434?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Samsung and Micron, two of the world's largest memory chip makers, warn that a COVID-19 lockdown in the Chinese city of Xian could affect their chip manufacturing bases in the area

    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1476401463215730688?s=20

    China is sending over a hundred #Military personnel to the city of #Xian. The northern Chinese city is currently under what’s being called the strictest lockdown since Wuhan.

    It definitely just a few hundred cases,

    https://twitter.com/WilliamsonRonw/status/1476541972068241408?s=20
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,920

    Farooq said:

    Lib Dems have got their mojo back. Only a Lib Dem would utter a phrase like that.

    The LDs will only gain about 10 seats in the next GE IMO, especially if voters think they will support a Lab Government
    Lots of water to go under the bridge between now and then, but polling suggests that right now a Labour led government is what more people want than a Conservative led one.
    Not in Tory LD marginals it's not.
    I think it is. We're been chewing over the Survation figures in SW Surrey (=Jeremy Hunt), which almost define the Blue Wall. The mean results compared with 2019 are;

    Con 40 (-13), Lab 23 (+15), LD 29 (-10), Green 3, Others 5

    Is this a huge swing to Labour? Not really, I think. Rather, it's a reflection of the willingness of over half the Labour vote to support the LibDem candidate as the perceived main challenger in a Tory seat when it comes to it. In between elections, they support Labour, and they often vote Labour at local level where Labour can win, but at GEs many choose to go tactical. So long as that's acknowledged fairly as the NS winner did (thanking Labour voters for "lending" their support rather than gloating over the low Labour score), I see the logic.
  • HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland

    Labour still win the urban poor in England and Wales and won the inner cities there even in 2019. The only reason they lost it in Scotland was the SNP overtook them on the populist left, same as the only reason the Tories would lose rural areas in England is if another party overtook them on the populist right like ReformUK.

    For example they would need to be annihilated like the Canadian Tories were in 1993 when they lost rural areas in the West to the Refom party as well as suburban and commuter belt areas to the Liberals.

    Shropshire North is like Christchurch, a LD by election win in 1993 on an even bigger swing than North Shropshire that went Tory again in 1997
    Why do you make the assumption that in the rural areas it would need a right wing party such as Reform for the Tories to lose those areas.

    I would refer you to Tim Farron who sits in what should by any criteria you use be a very safe Tory - even more so than say Richmond (Yorks).
    Because rightwing parties always win most rural areas across the western world and left liberal parties always win most inner city areas. Thus the only way the Tories would lose most rural areas is if a rightwing populist party overtook them like Reform beat the Canadian Tories in rural areas in 1993 or Le Pen beat Fillon in rural areas in round 1 of the French 2017 presidential election.

    Tim Farron was virtually the only non Tory MP in rural England in 2019, using him as an example is about as useful as saying the Tories won Cities of London and Westminster and Chelsea and Fulham in 2019 and therefore could sweep inner London next time!
    Besides you nobody on this site even cares that Reform UK exists. You keep boostering them, and its quite self-evident that you'd rather vote for them than the Tories, but nobody else is doing so.

    The Lib Dems have a record of success in the past even in rural seats, in 2010 the Lib Dems won many rural seats yet there has never been a Reform MP elected. Its beyond a joke to hold them up as serious.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tactical voting does not have to mean defeat for the Tories. There was heavy LD Tactical voting for Labour in 1992 and Labour tactical voting for LD in return but Major held on despite losing some seats, only in 1997 did it prove fatal

    Next GE is 1997 with a hint of 2017

    What should frighten you most at the moment is the fact that no 5 in the singles chart is BORIS JOHNSON IS STILL A F**KING C**T by the K**ts. Sooo reminiscent of the damage inflicted on May by cassette boy
    The damage that saw May re elected in 2017?
  • Self isolation period in Wales cut by three days

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1476572832406687749?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland

    It's been interesting that HYUFD has been emphasising the good old shire way of life in recent months - I forget his exact expression but it's along the lines of (I paraphrase in my own words, so I apologise for getting the tone hoeplessly wrong) how right and proper it is having people who own lots of land and are the jolly old lord of the manor in charge of the local area to knuckle one's brows to, what? Slightly startling from him as there are not many country estates in Epping, still less Jane Austen bodicerippers filmed there, so maybe it is something CCHQ has been pushing.
    Copped Hall is an 18th century estate just outside Epping, currently being restored

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copped_Hall
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tactical voting does not have to mean defeat for the Tories. There was heavy LD Tactical voting for Labour in 1992 and Labour tactical voting for LD in return but Major held on despite losing some seats, only in 1997 did it prove fatal

    Next GE is 1997 with a hint of 2017

    What should frighten you most at the moment is the fact that no 5 in the singles chart is BORIS JOHNSON IS STILL A F**KING C**T by the K**ts. Sooo reminiscent of the damage inflicted on May by cassette boy
    The damage that saw May re elected in 2017?
    Not just the worst point ever made on pb, almost certainly unrivalled anywhere.
  • Self isolation period in Wales cut by three days

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1476572832406687749?s=20

    But don't you dare think of having a park run.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tactical voting does not have to mean defeat for the Tories. There was heavy LD Tactical voting for Labour in 1992 and Labour tactical voting for LD in return but Major held on despite losing some seats, only in 1997 did it prove fatal

    Next GE is 1997 with a hint of 2017

    What should frighten you most at the moment is the fact that no 5 in the singles chart is BORIS JOHNSON IS STILL A F**KING C**T by the K**ts. Sooo reminiscent of the damage inflicted on May by cassette boy
    The damage that saw May re elected in 2017?
    Not just the worst point ever made on pb, almost certainly unrivalled anywhere.
    Ever? I need to up my game.
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    Govern in a good way that deserves re-election. Reconnect to the liberal Conservative principles that Boris campaigned on in 2019 that got the majority and reconnect to those voters.

    Do that and I could back them again. Fail to do so and I'll probably vote for the Lib Dems in 2024.

    I would like you to stop rewriting history to suit yourself.

    Johnson campaigned on Brexit. If his message had been 'vote for me and get yourself a boatload of small state and social liberalism' there'd have been no majority.
    Even if there were some nice liberal words uttered by Boris, the inexcusably illiberal actions taken by his government, before and after 2019 election, renders such analysis risible.

    Men truly manifest themselves in the long patterns of their acts, and not in any nutshell of self-theory.
    or, simply
    Actions speak louder than words
    How does that render it risible? You're merely reaffirming my own point!

    The illiberal actions post 2019 election are precisely why I've stopped supporting him.

    Stop being illiberal, get back to what was being said and start putting actions behind the words and I'll happily support him again despite this midterm wobble.

    Continue down this path of illiberalism and I'll hold my nose and vote for Ed Davey's party.
    I think you probably missed "before" and "before and after [the] 2019 election".

    I tend to take people at their word until such a point they have demonstrated the opposite through their actions.
    I read the before but was a bit confused about it, considering this Government was only formed in July 2019 and the death of the 2017-19 Parliament was almost entirely dominated by Brexit divisions. What illiberal actions were implemented between July 2019 and the election in December 2019?
    Boris Johnson's government has frequently demonstrated a centralising tendency and undertaken frequent attacks any who might hold him accountable. Amongst these were the wide ranging purge of party members, the illegal prorogation of parliament, the threats against some media outlets, and the attacks on the independence of the judicial system.

    All of these things done by Boris Johnson himself, and often amplified by the ministers of his government.

    The man sometimes talks like a liberal, but frequently does not act like one. None of these facts is new or even controversial. Many have voiced support for these actions whilst attacking liberalism, which is fair enough although not what I want from a politician, because I'm certainly a small-l liberal. It's a little disconcerting when people illiberality under the flag of liberalism.
    So nothing really then?

    There was no 'radical purge' of party members. There was a three line whip on a confidence vote over Europe exactly as John Major did with the Maastricht vote in 1993. Just as Major did in 1993 and following precedent of decades, anyone who failed to vote with the Party on that confidence motion lost the whip and they were informed in advance that was going to happen too. "The bastards" all-but-one got in line in 1993 and the only one that didn't lost the whip, the same happened to 2019's "bastards" who brought the loss of the whip upon themselves.

    According to the English High Court at the time there was no "illegal prorogation of Parliament", the English High Court ruled the prorogation was entirely legal and it again followed precedent. The Supreme Court invented new case law that rendered it void so Parliament was immediately recalled as a result. Nothing illiberal or shocking about that.

    I don't recall any "threats" against the media or the judicial system either so can't respond to those. It seems to me we have a vigorous media and the judicial systems independence clearly still exists which is why the Supreme Court was able to invent new rules to render the prorogation void.
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I understand that the Divisional Court in England concluded that the prorogation was not justiciable, not that it was "entirely legal and it again followed precedent".

    In any case, the Supreme Court said it was illegal. We have separation of powers in this country and that is part of the backbone of liberalism. We should be proud of that, not attacking it. The fact that it was embarrassing and problematic for the government is a sign of it working, but we were treated for a long pattern of anger against the courts from Johnson and his acolytes over the issue. The mature thing to do when the law has found you in the wrong is to dust yourself off and try not to make the same mistake again, instead of bitching about it and having your cronies threaten to make the Supreme Court appointed like in the USA.
    IANAL so I'm not sure about the niceties of what the Divisional Court said but my understanding is if the Supreme Court had upheld rather than overturned that ruling, then the prorogation would not have been deemed "illegal".

    Yes we do have an independent Supreme Court and its ruling was followed. It wasn't like Johnson responded like Andrew Jackson “John Marshall has made his decision; now let him enforce it.”

    "Bitching about it" is what people who lose an argument tend to do, its venting and its free speech and that's just as protected so long as it remains low level like that. If actions were done to render the Court's decision moot (besides passing a law which is legal) then that'd be illiberal, having some nobodies bitching is not.
This discussion has been closed.