Christopher Snowdon @cjsnowdon · 21m Replying to @cjsnowdon It must be very frustrating for clever academics to have to answer silly questions from the naive public.
If that is the case and they have their MOJO back they need to fight Southend West, as do Labour, otherwise their MOJO could stall amid a massive Reform Party vote. Suggest this issue is worth a thread on its won.
I agreee
I don’t agree. Assassinated when doing constituency work. It’s good manners to stand aside out of respect, and good principle not to look to gain from assassinated MP seat.
Dead wrong, the show must go on. You wanna show respect for Amess you can do it at the funeral. Thereafter you show respect for democracy.
I think I'm with you on this but it's agonising. Ultimately I think you can separate the man from the party. Amess, regrettably, is not around to contest the seat. Someone else is standing for the Conservatives. Will he or she be better than the possible alternatives who could have stood for other parties? That ought to be up to the voters to decide. If the voters think the best course of action is to replace the murdered MP with a new one from the same party, that is a noble choice but their choice.
The counter argument is that the voters chose a Tory at the last election. Death from natural causes happens and should result in a new election.
But after a murder it is important to demonstrate that the killer has had no impact on the composition of parliament
I doubt that the killer was remotely concerned with the composition of Parliament.
You can lock down if you want to, all a lockdown would do now is move my NYE celebration from the pub to a few bottles round a mate's house. And every other event in my social calendar for next month, for that matter.
It's all very well saying "lockdown now" but how much compliance do you honestly think you are going to get from the triple jabbed who are f***** sick of it all now and just want to get on with life.
That, and it probably wouldn't work anyway.
Omicron is both very widespread everywhere in the country and hugely infectious. It doesn't matter if the Government closes gyms and restaurants. More than half the working population has to go to a physical workplace and nearly all of us have to use essential shops. Should be more than enough to ensure that it keeps scything its way through the population.
Yes, agree, I made a similar point yesterday, that it would be pretty much impossible now to get R under 1 in a way that's compatible with our democracy.
For it to work, you'd need a weld people into their apartments style lockdown, with police or armed forces patrolling the streets and suppressing protest. Any party that tried that would find themselves on -50 in the polls within weeks, and their leadership would be replaced in short order. Boris is already on thin ice.
Hang on: Australia managed a lockdown to the extent of people not being allowed outside their apartments for weeks on end without (a) welding people in their homes or (b) abandoning democracy.
The previous situation was with delta, where you could manage noncompliance in a way that kept R under 1.You didn't need *everyone* to comply, you just needed the vast majority. My guess is omicron is so contagious that you'd have to resort to much more suppressive tactics to get R under 1. As in, clearing protesters off the street with riot gear and jailing anyone who breaks curfew, etc. And there will be a lot more noncompliance now.
I grudgingly put up with lockdown this time last year at the expense of my own health. Now, as I'm triple jabbed, you'd literally need to weld me in or throw me in jail to get me to comply. I can only speak for my own cohort of late twentysomething to late fortysomething friends, but the appetite for another lockdown is low.
I suspect there isn't much demographic crossover between my friends and the "stand up if you hate Boris" crowd at Ally Pally, but my guess is they're of a similar mind.
Now, if you're Boris, how do you propose keeping all of us locked up without a) draconian tactics not compatible with the norms of western democracy or b) falling so far behind in the polls your party replaces you?
Covid hospital-admission stats are looking pretty grim, in fact appreciably worse (or at least showing up slightly earlier) than the much-derided LSHTM model of mid-December.
Still, this isn't really a surprise. We knew that Omicron spreads super-fast, and the government took a deliberate decision not to impose tougher restrictions. I still think that was probably the right call, not least because by the time they got round to making a decision it was already too late for restrictions to have much effect.
Fortunately the triple-boosting looks as though it is working extremely well in avoiding too many of the most serious cases, and of course deaths, but the hit on the NHS is (as I expected) going to be dire over the next couple of weeks, and a lot of people are going to have a nasty bout of illness (albeit mainly the voluntarily unvaxxed).
What is clear is that the naïve takes on both extremes, ignoring the very real uncertainties and selectively picking snippets of data that supported their preconceptions, were equally irrational.
I'm wondering how the the LSHTM model took incidental admissions into account. On the one hand, they're hugely important, because they show up in the daily figures which are how decisions are made, but on the other, they're not especially relevant because those individuals would have ended up in hospital anyway, so the only impact is them a) infecting other people in hospital and b) possibly they end up in hospital longer because they have Covid as well as [whatever else they had].
Do we have that data for the UK?
Given the prevalence of Omnicron, there are presumably a *lot* of incidental admissions. The question is how many?
If we had data on total critical care bed usage that might give us a clue.
The figures I saw earlier this week said it had gone up from ~40% to ~80% (ie 80% of total Covid hospitalisations are now not primarily for Covid), but I'm not sure how definitive that number is, or where I saw it. 80% is in line with roughly 5% of the country having Covid right now, which seems about right.
Wow. Do you have a source for that? Because if true, it makes a massive difference to the correct policy response here.
Covid hospital-admission stats are looking pretty grim, in fact appreciably worse (or at least showing up slightly earlier) than the much-derided LSHTM model of mid-December.
Still, this isn't really a surprise. We knew that Omicron spreads super-fast, and the government took a deliberate decision not to impose tougher restrictions. I still think that was probably the right call, not least because by the time they got round to making a decision it was already too late for restrictions to have much effect.
Fortunately the triple-boosting looks as though it is working extremely well in avoiding too many of the most serious cases, and of course deaths, but the hit on the NHS is (as I expected) going to be dire over the next couple of weeks, and a lot of people are going to have a nasty bout of illness (albeit mainly the voluntarily unvaxxed).
What is clear is that the naïve takes on both extremes, ignoring the very real uncertainties and selectively picking snippets of data that supported their preconceptions, were equally irrational.
In which country are the restrictions having an effect? France? Germany?
It's pretty hard to argue that restrictions didn't have an effect in Germany:
As an aside, are you going to withdraw your lie about Gibraltar?
It really isn't, seeing as that's exactly what the German authorities themselves do seem to be claiming
Covid hospital-admission stats are looking pretty grim, in fact appreciably worse (or at least showing up slightly earlier) than the much-derided LSHTM model of mid-December.
Still, this isn't really a surprise. We knew that Omicron spreads super-fast, and the government took a deliberate decision not to impose tougher restrictions. I still think that was probably the right call, not least because by the time they got round to making a decision it was already too late for restrictions to have much effect.
Fortunately the triple-boosting looks as though it is working extremely well in avoiding too many of the most serious cases, and of course deaths, but the hit on the NHS is (as I expected) going to be dire over the next couple of weeks, and a lot of people are going to have a nasty bout of illness (albeit mainly the voluntarily unvaxxed).
What is clear is that the naïve takes on both extremes, ignoring the very real uncertainties and selectively picking snippets of data that supported their preconceptions, were equally irrational.
In which country are the restrictions having an effect? France? Germany?
It's pretty hard to argue that restrictions didn't have an effect in Germany:
As an aside, are you going to withdraw your lie about Gibraltar?
The Germans said they are missing a out 3x cases due to very limited testing over Christmas period.
I'm sure that's correct.
(And it's true of the UK, France, and a bunch of other places.)
But (a) the German positivity rate has actually come down in the last month and (b) the drop started earlier in Germany, coincident with the implementation of restrictions.
So, is the real German case count 25k? Nope. I bet it's at least 3 or 4x that. But I don't believe the real case count was just 80k three weeks ago (when Germany had a 20+% positivity rate.)
Germany has seen cases decline from their peak. Now, will that continue given Omicron? Probably not. But numbers have done better there (and the Netherlands) where there were severe restrictions than in some other countries.
The German death rate in recent weeks suggests they have been undercounting infections more than comparable countries.
Speaking of comparable countries the Belgium-Netherlands differences are very significant.
Covid hospital-admission stats are looking pretty grim, in fact appreciably worse (or at least showing up slightly earlier) than the much-derided LSHTM model of mid-December.
Still, this isn't really a surprise. We knew that Omicron spreads super-fast, and the government took a deliberate decision not to impose tougher restrictions. I still think that was probably the right call, not least because by the time they got round to making a decision it was already too late for restrictions to have much effect.
Fortunately the triple-boosting looks as though it is working extremely well in avoiding too many of the most serious cases, and of course deaths, but the hit on the NHS is (as I expected) going to be dire over the next couple of weeks, and a lot of people are going to have a nasty bout of illness (albeit mainly the voluntarily unvaxxed).
What is clear is that the naïve takes on both extremes, ignoring the very real uncertainties and selectively picking snippets of data that supported their preconceptions, were equally irrational.
I'm wondering how the the LSHTM model took incidental admissions into account. On the one hand, they're hugely important, because they show up in the daily figures which are how decisions are made, but on the other, they're not especially relevant because those individuals would have ended up in hospital anyway, so the only impact is them a) infecting other people in hospital and b) possibly they end up in hospital longer because they have Covid as well as [whatever else they had].
Do we have that data for the UK?
Given the prevalence of Omnicron, there are presumably a *lot* of incidental admissions. The question is how many?
If we had data on total critical care bed usage that might give us a clue.
The figures I saw earlier this week said it had gone up from ~40% to ~80% (ie 80% of total Covid hospitalisations are now not primarily for Covid), but I'm not sure how definitive that number is, or where I saw it. 80% is in line with roughly 5% of the country having Covid right now, which seems about right.
James Melville @JamesMelville · 5h Almost a third of recorded Covid hospital cases in England are patients being primarily treated for a non Covid health problem. These are the rising number of Covid ‘incidental admissions’.
Covid hospital-admission stats are looking pretty grim, in fact appreciably worse (or at least showing up slightly earlier) than the much-derided LSHTM model of mid-December.
Still, this isn't really a surprise. We knew that Omicron spreads super-fast, and the government took a deliberate decision not to impose tougher restrictions. I still think that was probably the right call, not least because by the time they got round to making a decision it was already too late for restrictions to have much effect.
Fortunately the triple-boosting looks as though it is working extremely well in avoiding too many of the most serious cases, and of course deaths, but the hit on the NHS is (as I expected) going to be dire over the next couple of weeks, and a lot of people are going to have a nasty bout of illness (albeit mainly the voluntarily unvaxxed).
What is clear is that the naïve takes on both extremes, ignoring the very real uncertainties and selectively picking snippets of data that supported their preconceptions, were equally irrational.
What percentage of those in hospital are unvaccinated or have not had their booster? Most of them. No Conservative Leader would survive imposing more restrictions in the vaccinated
Unfortunately the Conservative Party has gone so batshit-crazy that you are probably right, even if it were unambiguously clear that restrictions would save many tens of thousands of lives and that the economic hit from restrictions would be less than the hit from letting rip. Luckily it looks as though the booster programme will save us from having to face that.
Sorry for going off topic but I wondered if people still use BT for their broadband. I have stuck with them, on the assumption that they would be no better than anyone else. But I have found them to be hard work. I had a problem with my router which means that it cuts out continually, I kept being told that I was imagining it or it was my computer that was at fault, I proved otherwise to them and they eventually sent an engineer around and it seemed to be fixed, only now the problems are starting up again, and I am stuck with another 9 months on my contract. The current situation is really bad because the WIFI is now so unreliable that I can't use it for work, mobile broadband is more reliable. I fear that I will need to go in to some kind of energy sapping consumer rights battle with BT. Am I just unfortunate or do other people experience/hear of these problems with BT?
Covid hospital-admission stats are looking pretty grim, in fact appreciably worse (or at least showing up slightly earlier) than the much-derided LSHTM model of mid-December.
Still, this isn't really a surprise. We knew that Omicron spreads super-fast, and the government took a deliberate decision not to impose tougher restrictions. I still think that was probably the right call, not least because by the time they got round to making a decision it was already too late for restrictions to have much effect.
Fortunately the triple-boosting looks as though it is working extremely well in avoiding too many of the most serious cases, and of course deaths, but the hit on the NHS is (as I expected) going to be dire over the next couple of weeks, and a lot of people are going to have a nasty bout of illness (albeit mainly the voluntarily unvaxxed).
What is clear is that the naïve takes on both extremes, ignoring the very real uncertainties and selectively picking snippets of data that supported their preconceptions, were equally irrational.
What percentage of those in hospital are unvaccinated or have not had their booster? Most of them. No Conservative Leader would survive imposing more restrictions in the vaccinated
Unfortunately the Conservative Party has gone so batshit-crazy that you are probably right, even if it were unambiguously clear that restrictions would save many tens of thousands of lives and that the economic hit from restrictions would be less than the hit from letting rip. Luckily it looks as though the booster programme will save us from having to face that.
Just 4% of Tory members would support new restrictions on the vaccinated, even fewer than wanted to stop Brexit. Yes, any Tory PM would lose a VONC if they imposed more restrictions even if hospitalisations rise further (though agreed the booster programme is minimising that risk)
Disclose.tv @disclosetv JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)
I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
They are doing Moderna, and aiui half dose boosters.
Do we do that for Moderna?
Same, half doses. You get a 37x multiplier for half doses 83x for full so the half dose was seen as fine. A full Pfizer dose gets a 29x multiplier iirc, so even the half dose of Moderna is a good option. There's been chatter that the next round could be quarter doses of Moderna and half doses of Pfizer.
1/4 Moderna or 1/2 Pfizer every 6-9 months might be the ticket.
Besides conserving doses for cost or supply purposes, what reason is there to only give a fractional dose instead of a full dose?
All drugs (including vaccines) are a trade off between side effects and efficacy.
As a general rule you want to give the minimum effective dose
What's the minimum effective dose of wine?
When the government came out with their "no more than 14 units a week" I took a look at the stats. In order to increase your chance of early death by 10% you would need to drink two bottles of wine a day
Now if the whole population started doing that the results would be catastrophic.....individually, on the other hand.....
The best and most constructive post in the history of PB. It is in line with the guidance you see on road signs in Scotland, "Twenty is Plenty," which I construe as a units per day limit.
10% is quite a lot n'est-ce pas?
Not really, your chance of an early death is quite small to start with.
A friend tells a story of when he was a DoH civil servant, working in Whitehall. This was when they were first giving out advice on how many "units" you should drink. So they gathered a panel of eminent doctors in a room and asked them.
They'd never thought about it. One said, "a bottle of wine a day is fine, that's what I have with dinner". They concurred.
What's that in units? 42. Bugger, seems a bit high, better halve it for hoi polloi.
(I think wine was weaker then, a bottle at 14% and I go to bed quite mellow).
As the old saw goes
“What’s a safe drinking limit?”
“Less than your Doctor”
Hence the possibly apocryphal annual report on the ship's medic on HMS Made-up;
"Thanks to the efforts of Dr X, we have no alcoholics on this ship."
Covid hospital-admission stats are looking pretty grim, in fact appreciably worse (or at least showing up slightly earlier) than the much-derided LSHTM model of mid-December.
Still, this isn't really a surprise. We knew that Omicron spreads super-fast, and the government took a deliberate decision not to impose tougher restrictions. I still think that was probably the right call, not least because by the time they got round to making a decision it was already too late for restrictions to have much effect.
Fortunately the triple-boosting looks as though it is working extremely well in avoiding too many of the most serious cases, and of course deaths, but the hit on the NHS is (as I expected) going to be dire over the next couple of weeks, and a lot of people are going to have a nasty bout of illness (albeit mainly the voluntarily unvaxxed).
What is clear is that the naïve takes on both extremes, ignoring the very real uncertainties and selectively picking snippets of data that supported their preconceptions, were equally irrational.
What percentage of those in hospital are unvaccinated or have not had their booster? Most of them. No Conservative Leader would survive imposing more restrictions in the vaccinated
Unfortunately the Conservative Party has gone so batshit-crazy that you are probably right, even if it were unambiguously clear that restrictions would save many tens of thousands of lives and that the economic hit from restrictions would be less than the hit from letting rip. Luckily it looks as though the booster programme will save us from having to face that.
Just 4% of Tory members would support new restrictions on the vaccinated, even fewer than wanted to stop Brexit. Yes, any Tory PM would lose a VONC if they imposed more restrictions even if hospitalisations rise further (though agreed the booster programme is minimising that risk)
Sorry for going off topic but I wondered if people still use BT for their broadband. I have stuck with them, on the assumption that they would be no better than anyone else. But I have found them to be hard work. I had a problem with my router which means that it cuts out continually, I kept being told that I was imagining it or it was my computer that was at fault, I proved otherwise to them and they eventually sent an engineer around and it seemed to be fixed, only now the problems are starting up again, and I am stuck with another 9 months on my contract. The current situation is really bad because the WIFI is now so unreliable that I can't use it for work, mobile broadband is more reliable. I fear that I will need to go in to some kind of energy sapping consumer rights battle with BT. Am I just unfortunate or do other people experience/hear of these problems with BT?
Been using Zen Internet - consistently top or high in the Which member rankings for some years. But what I don't understand is if they also rely on the BT infrastructure. If the router is the problem, however, then it should be replaced anyway when you change.
Covid hospital-admission stats are looking pretty grim, in fact appreciably worse (or at least showing up slightly earlier) than the much-derided LSHTM model of mid-December.
Still, this isn't really a surprise. We knew that Omicron spreads super-fast, and the government took a deliberate decision not to impose tougher restrictions. I still think that was probably the right call, not least because by the time they got round to making a decision it was already too late for restrictions to have much effect.
Fortunately the triple-boosting looks as though it is working extremely well in avoiding too many of the most serious cases, and of course deaths, but the hit on the NHS is (as I expected) going to be dire over the next couple of weeks, and a lot of people are going to have a nasty bout of illness (albeit mainly the voluntarily unvaxxed).
What is clear is that the naïve takes on both extremes, ignoring the very real uncertainties and selectively picking snippets of data that supported their preconceptions, were equally irrational.
In which country are the restrictions having an effect? France? Germany?
It's pretty hard to argue that restrictions didn't have an effect in Germany:
As an aside, are you going to withdraw your lie about Gibraltar?
It really isn't, seeing as that's exactly what the German authorities themselves do seem to be claiming
"I know many of you will be watching UK and international news channels and you will be seeing nations around the world IMPOSING conditions and rules and cancelling events and celebrations.
You may ask yourselves why your Government is not doing that here."
Hmmm... interesting.
"As a result of the vaccination programme, I fully expect we will now be able to enjoy Christmas with our loved ones without the need for any further restrictions."
Ahhh...
What restrictions do they have?
"mask wearing in shops and on public transport."
Do you really expect us to believe that means "Christmas is cancelled"?
Do you take us for idiots?
Do you think you can spew lies without us being able to Google?
New modelling from Warwick Uni projects 1.4 million infections, 5,000 hospital admissions and 500 deaths per day by Saturday, if we’re lucky. 🤷🏼♂️ https://t.co/rbQGJAHHAXhttps://t.co/CjHxGbz4n6
The Tories think the rural vote is in the bag no matter what they do, just like Labour used to think about the urban poor in Scotland
It's been interesting that HYUFD has been emphasising the good old shire way of life in recent months - I forget his exact expression but it's along the lines of (I paraphrase in my own words, so I apologise for getting the tone hoeplessly wrong) how right and proper it is having people who own lots of land and are the jolly old lord of the manor in charge of the local area to knuckle one's brows to, what? Slightly startling from him as there are not many country estates in Epping, still less Jane Austen bodicerippers filmed there, so maybe it is something CCHQ has been pushing.
I did suggest @HYUFD for poster most likely to appear in an Austen novel some years ago. @Charles demurred ISTR. PS. Austen wrote no bodicerippers. Nor was much of a fan of landed inheritance. As far as anyone can discern.
I don’t think I demurred.
But she was briefly (24 hours I think) engaged to her neighbour - who lived in the house I grew up in
Alton? Very nice place. A friend lived there - amused himself by showing me where Fanny Adams was murdered, down at the bottom of his garden.
Manydown - albeit I grew up in the dower house rather than the main park which "accidentally" burnt to the ground a few months before its grade 1 listing was going to come into force
FTFYHIHBIDI
I don’t disagree but what does it mean after FTFY?
We're in for the ride. Actually, on the basis that decisions should be made on the information you have at the time, including where information is missing, and on the basis that early intervention is effective intervention, there was a good case for restrictions earlier. But there was no political appetite for restrictions and now it's almost too late for them to be effective.
So we'll see whether Omicron is better or worse than Delta in terms of hospitalisations. But there is a difference. This time we are choosing to have hospitalisations over restrictions. We fully locked down for Delta. We had no other remedies.
Alpha, not delta. Delta was over summer 2021 to nov 2021.
Covid hospital-admission stats are looking pretty grim, in fact appreciably worse (or at least showing up slightly earlier) than the much-derided LSHTM model of mid-December.
Still, this isn't really a surprise. We knew that Omicron spreads super-fast, and the government took a deliberate decision not to impose tougher restrictions. I still think that was probably the right call, not least because by the time they got round to making a decision it was already too late for restrictions to have much effect.
Fortunately the triple-boosting looks as though it is working extremely well in avoiding too many of the most serious cases, and of course deaths, but the hit on the NHS is (as I expected) going to be dire over the next couple of weeks, and a lot of people are going to have a nasty bout of illness (albeit mainly the voluntarily unvaxxed).
What is clear is that the naïve takes on both extremes, ignoring the very real uncertainties and selectively picking snippets of data that supported their preconceptions, were equally irrational.
In which country are the restrictions having an effect? France? Germany?
It's pretty hard to argue that restrictions didn't have an effect in Germany:
As an aside, are you going to withdraw your lie about Gibraltar?
That German curve is delta not omicron.
They are still below 50% of new cases being omicron.
Disclose.tv @disclosetv JUST IN - Netherlands plans to inject people with "up to six doses" of COVID vaccine - Health Minister (Newsweek)
I mean they've barely done third doses, what a joke.
They are doing Moderna, and aiui half dose boosters.
Do we do that for Moderna?
Same, half doses. You get a 37x multiplier for half doses 83x for full so the half dose was seen as fine. A full Pfizer dose gets a 29x multiplier iirc, so even the half dose of Moderna is a good option. There's been chatter that the next round could be quarter doses of Moderna and half doses of Pfizer.
1/4 Moderna or 1/2 Pfizer every 6-9 months might be the ticket.
Besides conserving doses for cost or supply purposes, what reason is there to only give a fractional dose instead of a full dose?
All drugs (including vaccines) are a trade off between side effects and efficacy.
As a general rule you want to give the minimum effective dose
Travel from the UK to France Travel Update for those transiting through France
The French government has updated the travel rules applied since 28 December 2021.
Passengers travelling from the UK, with residency permits for other EU countries under the Withdrawal Agreement, can now transit through France to return to their homes. This is subject to their journey to the UK having been completed before the 28th December 2021.
You're going for the "Stopped Clock" award, aren't you?
Anyone calling for lockdown in this Omicron wave is essentially saying one or both of these:
1. The UK population is completely different from that of South Africa or Denmark in our susceptibility to severe disease from Omicron, or 2. The NHS in London is less able to manage an Omicron wave than the healthcare system in Johannesburg.
Travel from the UK to France Travel Update for those transiting through France
The French government has updated the travel rules applied since 28 December 2021.
Passengers travelling from the UK, with residency permits for other EU countries under the Withdrawal Agreement, can now transit through France to return to their homes. This is subject to their journey to the UK having been completed before the 28th December 2021.
Covid hospital-admission stats are looking pretty grim, in fact appreciably worse (or at least showing up slightly earlier) than the much-derided LSHTM model of mid-December.
Still, this isn't really a surprise. We knew that Omicron spreads super-fast, and the government took a deliberate decision not to impose tougher restrictions. I still think that was probably the right call, not least because by the time they got round to making a decision it was already too late for restrictions to have much effect.
Fortunately the triple-boosting looks as though it is working extremely well in avoiding too many of the most serious cases, and of course deaths, but the hit on the NHS is (as I expected) going to be dire over the next couple of weeks, and a lot of people are going to have a nasty bout of illness (albeit mainly the voluntarily unvaxxed).
What is clear is that the naïve takes on both extremes, ignoring the very real uncertainties and selectively picking snippets of data that supported their preconceptions, were equally irrational.
In which country are the restrictions having an effect? France? Germany?
It's pretty hard to argue that restrictions didn't have an effect in Germany:
As an aside, are you going to withdraw your lie about Gibraltar?
That German curve is delta not omicron.
They are still below 50% of new cases being omicron.
I'll say it again, death penalty for these utter Michael Masis.
Police have arrested a man after a group of Covid deniers stormed a hospital and accused staff of “aiding and abetting genocide” as they tried to remove an elderly patient.
Video shared on social media showed a group entering the University Hospital Aintree in Liverpool before confronting nurses and accusing them of “kidnapping” the patient, who is understood to be receiving treatment on a Covid ward.
A man filming the incident is heard incorrectly ranting that Covid has been “downgraded to a non-infectious disease” and telling one nurse “you’ll be the first under open arrest” while referring to the group as “common law constables”.
At one point, he tells medical staff pleading with the group to leave that “you are all aiding and abetting genocide”.
Nurses and security staff joined efforts to ask the group to leave the ward after they entered the hospital at around 8.20pm last night before police arrived.
The patient being targeted is said to be the father of one of the men in the group. At one point, the man filming accuses hospital staff of having “murdered” the patient’s wife. He then bizarrely claims Chris Whitty and Boris Johnson have been arrested.
A nurse is heard telling police officers that the patient’s son’s mother had died of Covid, adding: “But he doesn’t believe in Covid. Since then we have had multiple threats from them that he was going to come to the ward and remove his dad.”
Merseyside Police confirmed that officers were called to the hospital following reports of a disturbance on a ward.
I'll say it again, death penalty for these utter Michael Masis.
Police have arrested a man after a group of Covid deniers stormed a hospital and accused staff of “aiding and abetting genocide” as they tried to remove an elderly patient.
Video shared on social media showed a group entering the University Hospital Aintree in Liverpool before confronting nurses and accusing them of “kidnapping” the patient, who is understood to be receiving treatment on a Covid ward.
A man filming the incident is heard incorrectly ranting that Covid has been “downgraded to a non-infectious disease” and telling one nurse “you’ll be the first under open arrest” while referring to the group as “common law constables”.
At one point, he tells medical staff pleading with the group to leave that “you are all aiding and abetting genocide”.
Nurses and security staff joined efforts to ask the group to leave the ward after they entered the hospital at around 8.20pm last night before police arrived.
The patient being targeted is said to be the father of one of the men in the group. At one point, the man filming accuses hospital staff of having “murdered” the patient’s wife. He then bizarrely claims Chris Whitty and Boris Johnson have been arrested.
A nurse is heard telling police officers that the patient’s son’s mother had died of Covid, adding: “But he doesn’t believe in Covid. Since then we have had multiple threats from them that he was going to come to the ward and remove his dad.”
Merseyside Police confirmed that officers were called to the hospital following reports of a disturbance on a ward.
I'll say it again, death penalty for these utter Michael Masis.
Police have arrested a man after a group of Covid deniers stormed a hospital and accused staff of “aiding and abetting genocide” as they tried to remove an elderly patient.
Video shared on social media showed a group entering the University Hospital Aintree in Liverpool before confronting nurses and accusing them of “kidnapping” the patient, who is understood to be receiving treatment on a Covid ward.
A man filming the incident is heard incorrectly ranting that Covid has been “downgraded to a non-infectious disease” and telling one nurse “you’ll be the first under open arrest” while referring to the group as “common law constables”.
At one point, he tells medical staff pleading with the group to leave that “you are all aiding and abetting genocide”.
Nurses and security staff joined efforts to ask the group to leave the ward after they entered the hospital at around 8.20pm last night before police arrived.
The patient being targeted is said to be the father of one of the men in the group. At one point, the man filming accuses hospital staff of having “murdered” the patient’s wife. He then bizarrely claims Chris Whitty and Boris Johnson have been arrested.
A nurse is heard telling police officers that the patient’s son’s mother had died of Covid, adding: “But he doesn’t believe in Covid. Since then we have had multiple threats from them that he was going to come to the ward and remove his dad.”
Merseyside Police confirmed that officers were called to the hospital following reports of a disturbance on a ward.
I'll say it again, death penalty for these utter Michael Masis.
Police have arrested a man after a group of Covid deniers stormed a hospital and accused staff of “aiding and abetting genocide” as they tried to remove an elderly patient.
Video shared on social media showed a group entering the University Hospital Aintree in Liverpool before confronting nurses and accusing them of “kidnapping” the patient, who is understood to be receiving treatment on a Covid ward.
A man filming the incident is heard incorrectly ranting that Covid has been “downgraded to a non-infectious disease” and telling one nurse “you’ll be the first under open arrest” while referring to the group as “common law constables”.
At one point, he tells medical staff pleading with the group to leave that “you are all aiding and abetting genocide”.
Nurses and security staff joined efforts to ask the group to leave the ward after they entered the hospital at around 8.20pm last night before police arrived.
The patient being targeted is said to be the father of one of the men in the group. At one point, the man filming accuses hospital staff of having “murdered” the patient’s wife. He then bizarrely claims Chris Whitty and Boris Johnson have been arrested.
A nurse is heard telling police officers that the patient’s son’s mother had died of Covid, adding: “But he doesn’t believe in Covid. Since then we have had multiple threats from them that he was going to come to the ward and remove his dad.”
Merseyside Police confirmed that officers were called to the hospital following reports of a disturbance on a ward.
I'll say it again, death penalty for these utter Michael Masis.
Police have arrested a man after a group of Covid deniers stormed a hospital and accused staff of “aiding and abetting genocide” as they tried to remove an elderly patient.
Video shared on social media showed a group entering the University Hospital Aintree in Liverpool before confronting nurses and accusing them of “kidnapping” the patient, who is understood to be receiving treatment on a Covid ward.
A man filming the incident is heard incorrectly ranting that Covid has been “downgraded to a non-infectious disease” and telling one nurse “you’ll be the first under open arrest” while referring to the group as “common law constables”.
At one point, he tells medical staff pleading with the group to leave that “you are all aiding and abetting genocide”.
Nurses and security staff joined efforts to ask the group to leave the ward after they entered the hospital at around 8.20pm last night before police arrived.
The patient being targeted is said to be the father of one of the men in the group. At one point, the man filming accuses hospital staff of having “murdered” the patient’s wife. He then bizarrely claims Chris Whitty and Boris Johnson have been arrested.
A nurse is heard telling police officers that the patient’s son’s mother had died of Covid, adding: “But he doesn’t believe in Covid. Since then we have had multiple threats from them that he was going to come to the ward and remove his dad.”
Merseyside Police confirmed that officers were called to the hospital following reports of a disturbance on a ward.
Covid hospital-admission stats are looking pretty grim, in fact appreciably worse (or at least showing up slightly earlier) than the much-derided LSHTM model of mid-December.
Still, this isn't really a surprise. We knew that Omicron spreads super-fast, and the government took a deliberate decision not to impose tougher restrictions. I still think that was probably the right call, not least because by the time they got round to making a decision it was already too late for restrictions to have much effect.
Fortunately the triple-boosting looks as though it is working extremely well in avoiding too many of the most serious cases, and of course deaths, but the hit on the NHS is (as I expected) going to be dire over the next couple of weeks, and a lot of people are going to have a nasty bout of illness (albeit mainly the voluntarily unvaxxed).
What is clear is that the naïve takes on both extremes, ignoring the very real uncertainties and selectively picking snippets of data that supported their preconceptions, were equally irrational.
In which country are the restrictions having an effect? France? Germany?
It's pretty hard to argue that restrictions didn't have an effect in Germany:
As an aside, are you going to withdraw your lie about Gibraltar?
That German curve is delta not omicron.
They are still below 50% of new cases being omicron.
Yes, but that also shows that Omicron seems to be increasing more slowly in Germany - what is the explanation for this?
My thinking is:
Germany has recently had a very big wave of Delta. Prier infection is a very good if not perfect, 'immunity' against reinfection including for different variety's. however immunity from infection, like immunity form vaccination reduces over time, therefore a population, like Germany is more resistant, if it has had a recent wave.
This would also explain why much of eastern Europe has not been that badly effected so far.
Comments
@cjsnowdon
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21m
Replying to
@cjsnowdon
It must be very frustrating for clever academics to have to answer silly questions from the naive public.
I grudgingly put up with lockdown this time last year at the expense of my own health. Now, as I'm triple jabbed, you'd literally need to weld me in or throw me in jail to get me to comply. I can only speak for my own cohort of late twentysomething to late fortysomething friends, but the appetite for another lockdown is low.
I suspect there isn't much demographic crossover between my friends and the "stand up if you hate Boris" crowd at Ally Pally, but my guess is they're of a similar mind.
Now, if you're Boris, how do you propose keeping all of us locked up without a) draconian tactics not compatible with the norms of western democracy or b) falling so far behind in the polls your party replaces you?
Edit: found it. From 8:06 here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OM2VgBm9pTI
https://www.gbc.gi/news/exemptions-masks-can-now-only-be-issued-director-public-health
Gibraltar has restrictions. Life there is far from free in a pre March 2020 sense.
I can understand why someone such as yourself doesn't want people to know that wall to wall vaccination does not result in freedom.
But sorry, its the truth.
Speaking of comparable countries the Belgium-Netherlands differences are very significant.
@JamesMelville
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5h
Almost a third of recorded Covid hospital cases in England are patients being primarily treated for a non Covid health problem. These are the rising number of Covid ‘incidental admissions’.
Source: NHS England /
@spectator
Anyway, a conviction in the colonies probably doesn't count.
This thread has tested positive
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/12/a-plurality-of-our-panellists-say-no-more-lockdowns-but-a-quarter-back-vaccine-passports-instead.html
"Thanks to the efforts of Dr X, we have no alcoholics on this ship."
You lied repeatedly. On multiple occasions you claimed that Christmas was cancelled.
How about reading the speech from the Chief Minister last week - https://www.gibraltar.gov.gi/press-releases/chief-ministers-script-live-statement-from-no-6-convent-place-9552021-7552
Let me quote a few bits of it for you:
"I know many of you will be watching UK and international news channels and you will be seeing nations around the world IMPOSING conditions and rules and cancelling events and celebrations.
You may ask yourselves why your Government is not doing that here."
Hmmm... interesting.
"As a result of the vaccination programme, I fully expect we will now be able to enjoy Christmas with our loved ones without the need for any further restrictions."
Ahhh...
What restrictions do they have?
"mask wearing in shops and on public transport."
Do you really expect us to believe that means "Christmas is cancelled"?
Do you take us for idiots?
Do you think you can spew lies without us being able to Google?
How about you withdraw your claims.
On the other hand, hats off to our Prime Minister who has Catholic tastes when it comes to partying, particularly during lockdowns.
They are still below 50% of new cases being omicron.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/30/germany-may-follow-england-in-cutting-isolation-time-as-omicron-spreads
How about the ferry?
Germany has recently had a very big wave of Delta. Prier infection is a very good if not perfect, 'immunity' against reinfection including for different variety's. however immunity from infection, like immunity form vaccination reduces over time, therefore a population, like Germany is more resistant, if it has had a recent wave.
This would also explain why much of eastern Europe has not been that badly effected so far.