If that is the case and they have their MOJO back they need to fight Southend West, as do Labour, otherwise their MOJO could stall amid a massive Reform Party vote. Suggest this issue is worth a thread on its won.
At the moment Southend West will be a straight fight between the Tories and UKIP with 1 independent Freedom Party candidate too.
Some of the Southend W wards used to be Liberal territory in my younger days. Some of the areas, though were rock-solid all-my-life-and-my-father-before-me Conservative. I went to school in the area and I didn't find many agreeing with me in political discussions in the VIth.
If it is a straight Tory v UKIP battle, the more liberal areas may end up voting Tory while some of the more conservative areas cast a UKIP protest vote
Agree, although as I know nothing of the new Tory candidate I don't know if she'd repel Left of Centre voters, as a Johnsonite would. Eldest Grandson and his wife live in the constituency; I shall get to have a look at the Tory literature.
The Tory candidate hoping to hold off UKIP in Southend is Anna Firth, a barrister and Sevenoaks District Councillor who fought Canterbury in 2019.
''hoping to hold off''' is an interesting choice of phrase here...
Runner-up to Rosie Duffield in Canterbury last time, I see. From Sevenoaks, after the Association said they wanted someone local. You, Mr HYUFD, didn't put your name forward, did you?
No, I do know an Epping Forest District Councillor though who has a house in Southend who tried to get selected as the candidate but the Southend members went for Anna Firth
I know this was discussed on here a few days ago but was a conclusion reached about whether the covid case numbers are inflated at all by mutiple positive tests by the same individual being recorded as multiple cases?
They attempt to filter them out, using correlation of data, as I understand it. This is, like much of the data quality, an ongoing process.
Thanks. Would you guess that, to the extent the case (positive test) numbers are inflated, it's a minor issue, more than outweighed by the number of cases which never get tested?
A niece, needle-phobic but nevertheless vaccinated, raised this concern from social media. I suspect because it helps her justify not having a booster if 'the case numbers are inflated'.
Another desperately quiet day at work and I come on here to find a nice thread about the Liberal Democrats which is always welcome.
North Shropshire has undeniably given both the party and Ed Davey a real boost. Davey now has two by-election gains to his credit and let's not forget he's a fighter having lost Kingston & Surbiton in the 2015 catastrophe, he went and won it back in 2017 and now has a healthy 10,000 majority. He's the only LD MP who lost his seat in 2015, regained it in 2017 and held on in 2019 (both Jo Swinson and Stephen Lloyd regained seats lost in 2015 at the next GE but lost at the last GE).
All isn't sweetness and light - the poll ratings remain modest at this time and I suspect there are islands of activity between vast oceans of constituencies where there is no meaningful LD presence.
As an example, the LDs hold 152 council seats in London but 109 of those are in Sutton, Kingston and Richmond which means only 43 seats in the remaining Boroughs and large numbers with no LD presence at all. I'm all for targeting resources but the party needs to start getting into new areas and building strength and winning seats.
Take a borough like Bromley - in 1998, the Liberal Democrats won 25 seats and for a short while ran the council with Labour - in 2014, the last councillors were defeated. That's the scale of the rebuilding that still needs to start seven years after the end of the Coalition.
There will be those who ask for what the Liberal Democrats stand - actually, that's not very important now - it's enough to be a home for disillusioned Conservatives (of whom there seem to be many currently) but there will come a point when the party will need to articulate its USP in a crowded market. They've made a good start opposing some of the proposed restrictions and no one talks about re-joining the EU or any of that nonsense.
In the same way, talking about the relationship with Starmer's Labour isn't all that important either. Both parties are fishing in different ponds for the same fish and it doesn't much matter on whose hook they end up.
FAir comment.
It's interest looking at Farron's seat - I was wondering if it is a Nonconformist area (to an extent), but it took the LDs years of work pre-Farron to win it, and is a a LD-Tory marginal much of the time recently.
Current majority 1934.
He needs a swing in the current direction to make it safe.
A Tory to LibDem swing doesn’t seem all that unlikely right now.
What are the principal threats and opportunities facing Johnson's premiership in 2022?
I was thinking:
Opportunities: 1. Omicron might be the effective end of Covid, if mild and it becomes ubiquitous... 2. ...in which case the decision not to increase restrictions further could look inspired. 3. Having survived the Q4 scandals there might be a quiet period with no fresh scandals. 4. If a leadership challenge comes Johnson could see it off with votes to spare, so deferring any further challenge to 2023 at the earliest. 5. Some foreign event leads to a 'rally to the flag' boost for Johnson (I'm thinking Ukraine, but hopefully not).
Threats: 1. Omicron proves very nasty and Johnson's decision to avoid further restrictions looks misguided at best. 2. Further Covid variants extend the misery throughout 2022. 3. Energy price rises hit consumers hard. 4. Supply issues come to the fore as the new EU trade regimes kicks in. 5. The NI rises land badly with the public. 6. Further hitherto unrevealed Johnson scandals emerge. 7. Major financial crash sparked by Evergreen/Ukraine/something else. 8. Tory MPs don't recover their faith in Johnson as a winner after an extended period of bad polls.
I am sure there are others on both sides of the account. Thoughts anyone?
He gets bored with the job, and wants to spend more time with his family.
His wanting to spend more time with his family would be against the run of play. And bear in mind the family is Princess "Buyer's Remorse" Nut Nut.
Tactical voting does not have to mean defeat for the Tories. There was heavy LD Tactical voting for Labour in 1992 and Labour tactical voting for LD in return but Major held on despite losing some seats, only in 1997 did it prove fatal
Next GE is 1997 with a hint of 2017
What should frighten you most at the moment is the fact that no 5 in the singles chart is BORIS JOHNSON IS STILL A F**KING C**T by the K**ts. Sooo reminiscent of the damage inflicted on May by cassette boy
The damage that saw May re elected in 2017?
Not just the worst point ever made on pb, almost certainly unrivalled anywhere.
Ever? I need to up my game.
Don’t waste the effort; Sean has that title sewn up with his “millions of Brits are going to die, uncollected bodies will litter the streets” series of early 2020.
Excel spreadsheet has fallen over with the huge numbers...
Sigh. A cheap comment.
The dashboard team has to put up with large amounts of data being sent in, in a variety of forms. Due to the usual problems of little empires*, they can't force the hundreds of data sources to do anything in a vaguely similar way, much of the time.
So they have a huge array of data transformation processes, verification processes, and manual checks.
Then someone decides to change a format in a spreadsheet, or change the format, just because. So they end up having to write a new transformer on the fly.....
So wash you mouth out with salty water and send them something nice for Christmas. They deserve it.
*P.J. O'Rourke observed that the beauty of a well-designed Fascism is that it gives every piss-ant an ant hill to piss from.
I remember a brief sojourn I had at a major telecommunications company who had some of the worst data processes I ever saw in my entire career to date. Basically every individual was like a living database, so X runs process and sends data that Y uses, then Y runs process and sends data that Z uses, etc...
Some of these processes were so complex they were set up to run overnight, so you just left the computer on and hoped it ran.
When it inevitably failed, rerunning it took most of the day, which meant everyone else's processes were even more delayed.
Very quickly you got to the stage where if anything failed and you couldn't get it recovered that day, you could never recover at all as you couldn't catch up. If it failed over a bank holiday weekend it was a complete disaster.
Total nightmare, stuck it out 9 months before going back to my previous job where at least the databases were updated in a reliable way leaving me to actually analyse the data rather than simply be a cog in the wheel producing it...
It is everywhere.
Look at those towers in Canary Wharf.
In many of them, a third of the building is occupied (if they aren't working from home) by people who spend their days reconciling data from one system to another. In a number of places it is more.
I am currently working on a system that removes nearly all human input from such flows. It automatically checks the data in a number of ways (and adding rules is simple), and generates reports on anything questionable, with levels of flagging. When we ran it on the historical data set, we were finding issues and mistakes going back decades. Not to mention more... interesting issues.
Could you not just mention the more... interesting issues but actually dish the dirt?
Sounds intriguing, doesn't it!
Mostly boring stuff - like when you realise the clob in a database field is actually a zip of what happened at Roswell, and who was on the Grassy Knoll.
No could about it, 6 days worth of deaths will be around 800 form England alone, plus whatever we have from the other three nations in the UK, potentially over 1,000 deaths reported today. Expect major panic.
Presumably flagged as strongly as possible as 'includes backdated data'.
I don't see why the data can't be loaded in to the appropriate days.
If that is the case and they have their MOJO back they need to fight Southend West, as do Labour, otherwise their MOJO could stall amid a massive Reform Party vote. Suggest this issue is worth a thread on its won.
I agreee
I don’t agree. Assassinated when doing constituency work. It’s good manners to stand aside out of respect, and good principle not to look to gain from assassinated MP seat.
But the greater compliment is through seeing the full democratic process continue, despite the efforts of some random idiot terrorist. Cf. Ian Gow RIP.
What are the principal threats and opportunities facing Johnson's premiership in 2022?
I was thinking:
Opportunities: 1. Omicron might be the effective end of Covid, if mild and it becomes ubiquitous... 2. ...in which case the decision not to increase restrictions further could look inspired. 3. Having survived the Q4 scandals there might be a quiet period with no fresh scandals. 4. If a leadership challenge comes Johnson could see it off with votes to spare, so deferring any further challenge to 2023 at the earliest. 5. Some foreign event leads to a 'rally to the flag' boost for Johnson (I'm thinking Ukraine, but hopefully not).
Threats: 1. Omicron proves very nasty and Johnson's decision to avoid further restrictions looks misguided at best. 2. Further Covid variants extend the misery throughout 2022. 3. Energy price rises hit consumers hard. 4. Supply issues come to the fore as the new EU trade regimes kicks in. 5. The NI rises land badly with the public. 6. Further hitherto unrevealed Johnson scandals emerge. 7. Major financial crash sparked by Evergreen/Ukraine/something else. 8. Tory MPs don't recover their faith in Johnson as a winner after an extended period of bad polls.
I am sure there are others on both sides of the account. Thoughts anyone?
Threats (expanding on 3. and 5.):
9. A 'cost of living crisis' kicks in as prices of goods and services accelerate ahead of take-home pay (and this is homed in on effectively by the opposition parties). (It's the economy, stupid).
They should have gone for somebody more impartial like Prince Andrew....
Mrs P and I watched the Queen's speech on Christmas Day for the first time in years (mainly I admit because we thought it might be her last).
It was noticeable that Andrew was the only royal not to feature.
I don't think Prince Harry got a mention did he? I wasn't watching or listening closely, so he might have done, but I remember picking up very clear mentions of Willian and Kate doing great work about something or other, expecting Harry name to be mentioned next on the list and I don't think it came.
An operation to remove the masts from a sunken cargo ship in the River Thames, containing 1,400 tonnes of unstable explosives onboard, will involve Royal Navy specialists.
It is believed that if the unexploded ordnance on the SS Richard Montgomery were triggered it could lead to the nearby oil and gas facilities in Sheerness being damaged, the Daily Telegraph reports.
What could possibly go wrong?
Is that not literally the story of the opening episode of Sky TV series COBRA: Cyberwar?
A one sized fits all approach across totally unrelated sectors sounds a terrible idea, but there must be a way of moving things to a systems / procedures in which people aren't having to write loads of different transformation scripts just to ingest the similar data.
And it certainly shouldn't be anywhere near being Excel based.
One thing they should do is pinch the policy that Amazon adopted for AWS. That any internal tools, formats, APIs, or policies have to be offered to other departments and customers. Which stops teams building something good to suit themselves, and something half-arsed for everyone else. Extreme dogfooding if you will.
If that is the case and they have their MOJO back they need to fight Southend West, as do Labour, otherwise their MOJO could stall amid a massive Reform Party vote. Suggest this issue is worth a thread on its won.
I agreee
I don’t agree. Assassinated when doing constituency work. It’s good manners to stand aside out of respect, and good principle not to look to gain from assassinated MP seat.
Yeah, I'm torn on this one. Would either of the two recently-deceased MPs want democracy suspended in their memory? The MP blown up by the IRA wasn't treated in the same fashion.
To be fair, Sinn Fein wasn't in the running to gain the seat.
No could about it, 6 days worth of deaths will be around 800 form England alone, plus whatever we have from the other three nations in the UK, potentially over 1,000 deaths reported today. Expect major panic.
Presumably flagged as strongly as possible as 'includes backdated data'.
I don't see why the data can't be loaded in to the appropriate days.
It should still all be datestamped.
It will be, for "day of"
Reconstructing "reporting day" would be impossible, except if you wrote a fairly simple script to guess at it and fake the reporting day. Which would be garbage, basically.
EDIT: so this graph will be "filled in"
And the SeanT's underwear will explode, all the same moment. Sigh.....
An operation to remove the masts from a sunken cargo ship in the River Thames, containing 1,400 tonnes of unstable explosives onboard, will involve Royal Navy specialists.
It is believed that if the unexploded ordnance on the SS Richard Montgomery were triggered it could lead to the nearby oil and gas facilities in Sheerness being damaged, the Daily Telegraph reports.
What could possibly go wrong?
The removal of the Richard Montgomery, and the danger of doing so, has been a point of discussion in that part of N Kent and in SE Essex since, IIRC, about 1947. 'Informed' opinion, in the pubs and clubs of SE Essex suggests that the consequence of removal will vary between the swamping of Canvey Island and the loss of a few windows along Southend sea front!
They should have gone for somebody more impartial like Prince Andrew....
Mrs P and I watched the Queen's speech on Christmas Day for the first time in years (mainly I admit because we thought it might be her last).
It was noticeable that Andrew was the only royal not to feature.
I don't think Prince Harry got a mention did he? I wasn't watching or listening closely, so he might have done, but I remember picking up very clear mentions of Willian and Kate doing great work about something or other, expecting Harry name to be mentioned next on the list and I don't think it came.
No, but he's not an actual royal anymore is he?
Not strictly no, but at one point he was a big favourite of Brenda. I was sort of expecting her to list him briefing after Kate and William, something or other about his continued charity work, but conveniently not mention she whose name must not be spoken.
But I think he is definitely on the naughty step with Prince Andrew.
Another desperately quiet day at work and I come on here to find a nice thread about the Liberal Democrats which is always welcome.
North Shropshire has undeniably given both the party and Ed Davey a real boost. Davey now has two by-election gains to his credit and let's not forget he's a fighter having lost Kingston & Surbiton in the 2015 catastrophe, he went and won it back in 2017 and now has a healthy 10,000 majority. He's the only LD MP who lost his seat in 2015, regained it in 2017 and held on in 2019 (both Jo Swinson and Stephen Lloyd regained seats lost in 2015 at the next GE but lost at the last GE).
All isn't sweetness and light - the poll ratings remain modest at this time and I suspect there are islands of activity between vast oceans of constituencies where there is no meaningful LD presence.
As an example, the LDs hold 152 council seats in London but 109 of those are in Sutton, Kingston and Richmond which means only 43 seats in the remaining Boroughs and large numbers with no LD presence at all. I'm all for targeting resources but the party needs to start getting into new areas and building strength and winning seats.
Take a borough like Bromley - in 1998, the Liberal Democrats won 25 seats and for a short while ran the council with Labour - in 2014, the last councillors were defeated. That's the scale of the rebuilding that still needs to start seven years after the end of the Coalition.
There will be those who ask for what the Liberal Democrats stand - actually, that's not very important now - it's enough to be a home for disillusioned Conservatives (of whom there seem to be many currently) but there will come a point when the party will need to articulate its USP in a crowded market. They've made a good start opposing some of the proposed restrictions and no one talks about re-joining the EU or any of that nonsense.
In the same way, talking about the relationship with Starmer's Labour isn't all that important either. Both parties are fishing in different ponds for the same fish and it doesn't much matter on whose hook they end up.
FAir comment.
It's interest looking at Farron's seat - I was wondering if it is a Nonconformist area (to an extent), but it took the LDs years of work pre-Farron to win it, and is a a LD-Tory marginal much of the time recently.
Current majority 1934.
He needs a swing in the current direction to make it safe.
A Tory to LibDem swing doesn’t seem all that unlikely right now.
Sadly the seat won't exist after boundary changes.
If that is the case and they have their MOJO back they need to fight Southend West, as do Labour, otherwise their MOJO could stall amid a massive Reform Party vote. Suggest this issue is worth a thread on its won.
I agreee
I don’t agree. Assassinated when doing constituency work. It’s good manners to stand aside out of respect, and good principle not to look to gain from assassinated MP seat.
Like Eastbourne?
I think the precedent set by Batley & Spen (first time around) is entirely wrong. There is no issue of "manners" here. The murders of both Jo Cox and David Amess were utterly tragic, but so were the deaths of James Brokenshire and Cheryl Gillan. But the residents in all those areas need to go on to pick a new MP, and I really don't see why they shouldn't have the usual range of choices.
I think the precedent set by Batley & Spen was right, and that the Lib Dems were wrong to gain Eastbourne.
Yes the deaths of Brokenshire and Gillan were tragic, but they were also natural. Seeking a replacement by following natural processes is reasonable.
The deaths or Cox and Amess are different, they were unnatural. They were politically motivated murders. If people who dislike a party can go around killing that parties MPs and seeking the MPs seat change hands as a result then that is leading us down a very dark path.
No politically motivated murder should ever be rewarded by the seat changing hands.
‘ No politically motivated murder should ever be rewarded by the seat changing hands. “
I agree with Bart.
Two MP assassinations in recent years, the political establishment have to ask, what is normal, is this the new normal, how to stop it becoming a trend.
As well as the principle Bart neatly summed up, dialling down on division and hype seems sensible too, where can be applied within democracy.
These weren't politically motivated. We all run the risk of being murdered by terrorists. Murdering an MP is aa dreadful thing to do, but it is on exactly the same moral level as murdering anybody else.
Handing it to the existing party, is the one set up which permits the murderer to know in advance the electoral outcome of his act.
Well that kicked off an interesting debate!
I’m glad I’m on same side as party leaderships and political establishment.
I think.
There's a lot of ill thought out mawkishness going on here. These people are highly paid narcissists, in a high profile high risk job, not voluntary NHS cancer nurses. A true pass the sick bag nadir was the proposal that Cox should be succeeded by her husband, till someone had the sense to google him.
Off Topic I know, but does anyone know whether the police have done anything about those disgraceful antivaxxers at MK yesterday?
No arrests as yet but Police investigating - presumably they will start by reviewing footage and speaking with staff before moving on to individuals who appear to have stolen items etc, and potentially people involved in organising the protests and inciting.
Tactical voting does not have to mean defeat for the Tories. There was heavy LD Tactical voting for Labour in 1992 and Labour tactical voting for LD in return but Major held on despite losing some seats, only in 1997 did it prove fatal
Next GE is 1997 with a hint of 2017
What should frighten you most at the moment is the fact that no 5 in the singles chart is BORIS JOHNSON IS STILL A F**KING C**T by the K**ts. Sooo reminiscent of the damage inflicted on May by cassette boy
The damage that saw May re elected in 2017?
Not just the worst point ever made on pb, almost certainly unrivalled anywhere.
Ever? I need to up my game.
Don’t waste the effort; Sean has that title sewn up with his “millions of Brits are going to die, uncollected bodies will litter the streets” series of early 2020.
NHS England have reported 365 new Covid hospital deaths over the period 25-30th Dec.. These I think will be added to today's 4pm http://gov.uk number so I expect lots of noise on here about the high death number.
Excel spreadsheet has fallen over with the huge numbers...the comment about taking a long time and miracle it even runs (after 2 years of this) doesn't sound like systems have been modernised, more sticking plasters.
NHS England have reported 365 new Covid hospital deaths over the period 25-30th Dec.. These I think will be added to today's 4pm http://gov.uk number so I expect lots of noise on here about the high death number.
What are the principal threats and opportunities facing Johnson's premiership in 2022?
I was thinking:
Opportunities: 1. Omicron might be the effective end of Covid, if mild and it becomes ubiquitous... 2. ...in which case the decision not to increase restrictions further could look inspired. 3. Having survived the Q4 scandals there might be a quiet period with no fresh scandals. 4. If a leadership challenge comes Johnson could see it off with votes to spare, so deferring any further challenge to 2023 at the earliest. 5. Some foreign event leads to a 'rally to the flag' boost for Johnson (I'm thinking Ukraine, but hopefully not).
Threats: 1. Omicron proves very nasty and Johnson's decision to avoid further restrictions looks misguided at best. 2. Further Covid variants extend the misery throughout 2022. 3. Energy price rises hit consumers hard. 4. Supply issues come to the fore as the new EU trade regimes kicks in. 5. The NI rises land badly with the public. 6. Further hitherto unrevealed Johnson scandals emerge. 7. Major financial crash sparked by Evergreen/Ukraine/something else. 8. Tory MPs don't recover their faith in Johnson as a winner after an extended period of bad polls.
I am sure there are others on both sides of the account. Thoughts anyone?
He gets bored with the job, and wants to spend more time with his family.
Yet decision-making choices like that aren’t his strong point?
Excel spreadsheet has fallen over with the huge numbers...the comment about taking a long time and miracle it even runs (after 2 years of this) doesn't sound like systems have been modernised, more sticking plasters.
Excel spreadsheet has fallen over with the huge numbers...the comment about taking a long time and miracle it even runs (after 2 years of this) doesn't sound like systems have been modernised, more sticking plasters.
Excel spreadsheet has fallen over with the huge numbers...the comment about taking a long time and miracle it even runs (after 2 years of this) doesn't sound like systems have been modernised, more sticking plasters.
If that is the case and they have their MOJO back they need to fight Southend West, as do Labour, otherwise their MOJO could stall amid a massive Reform Party vote. Suggest this issue is worth a thread on its won.
I agreee
I don’t agree. Assassinated when doing constituency work. It’s good manners to stand aside out of respect, and good principle not to look to gain from assassinated MP seat.
Like Eastbourne?
I think the precedent set by Batley & Spen (first time around) is entirely wrong. There is no issue of "manners" here. The murders of both Jo Cox and David Amess were utterly tragic, but so were the deaths of James Brokenshire and Cheryl Gillan. But the residents in all those areas need to go on to pick a new MP, and I really don't see why they shouldn't have the usual range of choices.
I think the precedent set by Batley & Spen was right, and that the Lib Dems were wrong to gain Eastbourne.
Yes the deaths of Brokenshire and Gillan were tragic, but they were also natural. Seeking a replacement by following natural processes is reasonable.
The deaths or Cox and Amess are different, they were unnatural. They were politically motivated murders. If people who dislike a party can go around killing that parties MPs and seeking the MPs seat change hands as a result then that is leading us down a very dark path.
No politically motivated murder should ever be rewarded by the seat changing hands.
‘ No politically motivated murder should ever be rewarded by the seat changing hands. “
I agree with Bart.
Two MP assassinations in recent years, the political establishment have to ask, what is normal, is this the new normal, how to stop it becoming a trend.
As well as the principle Bart neatly summed up, dialling down on division and hype seems sensible too, where can be applied within democracy.
These weren't politically motivated. We all run the risk of being murdered by terrorists. Murdering an MP is aa dreadful thing to do, but it is on exactly the same moral level as murdering anybody else.
Handing it to the existing party, is the one set up which permits the murderer to know in advance the electoral outcome of his act.
Well that kicked off an interesting debate!
I’m glad I’m on same side as party leaderships and political establishment.
I think.
There's a lot of ill thought out mawkishness going on here. These people are highly paid narcissists, in a high profile high risk job, not voluntary NHS cancer nurses. A true pass the sick bag nadir was the proposal that Cox should be succeeded by her husband, till someone had the sense to google him.
I just posted my gut feeling when I saw it there, without thinking deeply on it before. But I’m thinking about everything that’s been said now.
Shaun Lintern @ShaunLintern I'm told Covid patient numbers in hospital in England will jump by another 1,000 when the data is updated later, off the back of a 1,000 rise yday. This will mean roughly 11,300 Covid patients in hospital - numbers last seen at the end of February.
NHS England have reported 365 new Covid hospital deaths over the period 25-30th Dec.. These I think will be added to today's 4pm http://gov.uk number so I expect lots of noise on here about the high death number.
Coronavirus situation in Germany likely more alarming then estimated.
"Significant underreporting" over the Christmas and New Year holidays could have distorted current number of coronavirus cases, explained Health Minister Karl Lauterbach on Wednesday.
The LD's don't have their major back. When was the last time you saw an LD holding forth in the media. I am on their email list and other than witless criticism of the government they have nothing to say about anything. All they are beneficiaries of voters anger with the government. Davey and Moran are probably wise to have no ideas and no policies at the present time.
An operation to remove the masts from a sunken cargo ship in the River Thames, containing 1,400 tonnes of unstable explosives onboard, will involve Royal Navy specialists.
It is believed that if the unexploded ordnance on the SS Richard Montgomery were triggered it could lead to the nearby oil and gas facilities in Sheerness being damaged, the Daily Telegraph reports.
What could possibly go wrong?
The removal of the Richard Montgomery, and the danger of doing so, has been a point of discussion in that part of N Kent and in SE Essex since, IIRC, about 1947. 'Informed' opinion, in the pubs and clubs of SE Essex suggests that the consequence of removal will vary between the swamping of Canvey Island and the loss of a few windows along Southend sea front!
The experiences of the CHASE series and "Operation Sailor Hat" suggest that the "Montgomery = nuke" stuff is nonsense.
NHS England have reported 365 new Covid hospital deaths over the period 25-30th Dec.. These I think will be added to today's 4pm http://gov.uk number so I expect lots of noise on here about the high death number.
An operation to remove the masts from a sunken cargo ship in the River Thames, containing 1,400 tonnes of unstable explosives onboard, will involve Royal Navy specialists.
It is believed that if the unexploded ordnance on the SS Richard Montgomery were triggered it could lead to the nearby oil and gas facilities in Sheerness being damaged, the Daily Telegraph reports.
What could possibly go wrong?
Is that not literally the story of the opening episode of Sky TV series COBRA: Cyberwar?
Yebbut Robert Carlyle is PM rather than Boris Johnson, so it's not all doom and gloom in the series.
I'm genuinely curious why it takes multiple hours to update the dashboard. Computers can go through hundreds of thousands of lines in a database without breaking a sweat.
Another desperately quiet day at work and I come on here to find a nice thread about the Liberal Democrats which is always welcome.
North Shropshire has undeniably given both the party and Ed Davey a real boost. Davey now has two by-election gains to his credit and let's not forget he's a fighter having lost Kingston & Surbiton in the 2015 catastrophe, he went and won it back in 2017 and now has a healthy 10,000 majority. He's the only LD MP who lost his seat in 2015, regained it in 2017 and held on in 2019 (both Jo Swinson and Stephen Lloyd regained seats lost in 2015 at the next GE but lost at the last GE).
All isn't sweetness and light - the poll ratings remain modest at this time and I suspect there are islands of activity between vast oceans of constituencies where there is no meaningful LD presence.
As an example, the LDs hold 152 council seats in London but 109 of those are in Sutton, Kingston and Richmond which means only 43 seats in the remaining Boroughs and large numbers with no LD presence at all. I'm all for targeting resources but the party needs to start getting into new areas and building strength and winning seats.
Take a borough like Bromley - in 1998, the Liberal Democrats won 25 seats and for a short while ran the council with Labour - in 2014, the last councillors were defeated. That's the scale of the rebuilding that still needs to start seven years after the end of the Coalition.
There will be those who ask for what the Liberal Democrats stand - actually, that's not very important now - it's enough to be a home for disillusioned Conservatives (of whom there seem to be many currently) but there will come a point when the party will need to articulate its USP in a crowded market. They've made a good start opposing some of the proposed restrictions and no one talks about re-joining the EU or any of that nonsense.
In the same way, talking about the relationship with Starmer's Labour isn't all that important either. Both parties are fishing in different ponds for the same fish and it doesn't much matter on whose hook they end up.
FAir comment.
It's interest looking at Farron's seat - I was wondering if it is a Nonconformist area (to an extent), but it took the LDs years of work pre-Farron to win it, and is a a LD-Tory marginal much of the time recently.
Current majority 1934.
He needs a swing in the current direction to make it safe.
A Tory to LibDem swing doesn’t seem all that unlikely right now.
Sadly the seat won't exist after boundary changes.
On the current proposals, although it wouldn't shock me if these are changed in the final version. The changes in the NW generally are more radical than a two seat reduction from 75 to 73 probably requires, and that's worrying for a few MPs (either making seats less winnable or opening up selection contest issues). I can see fairly strong push-back.
If that is the case and they have their MOJO back they need to fight Southend West, as do Labour, otherwise their MOJO could stall amid a massive Reform Party vote. Suggest this issue is worth a thread on its won.
I agreee
I don’t agree. Assassinated when doing constituency work. It’s good manners to stand aside out of respect, and good principle not to look to gain from assassinated MP seat.
Like Eastbourne?
I think the precedent set by Batley & Spen (first time around) is entirely wrong. There is no issue of "manners" here. The murders of both Jo Cox and David Amess were utterly tragic, but so were the deaths of James Brokenshire and Cheryl Gillan. But the residents in all those areas need to go on to pick a new MP, and I really don't see why they shouldn't have the usual range of choices.
I think the precedent set by Batley & Spen was right, and that the Lib Dems were wrong to gain Eastbourne.
Yes the deaths of Brokenshire and Gillan were tragic, but they were also natural. Seeking a replacement by following natural processes is reasonable.
The deaths or Cox and Amess are different, they were unnatural. They were politically motivated murders. If people who dislike a party can go around killing that parties MPs and seeking the MPs seat change hands as a result then that is leading us down a very dark path.
No politically motivated murder should ever be rewarded by the seat changing hands.
‘ No politically motivated murder should ever be rewarded by the seat changing hands. “
I agree with Bart.
Two MP assassinations in recent years, the political establishment have to ask, what is normal, is this the new normal, how to stop it becoming a trend.
As well as the principle Bart neatly summed up, dialling down on division and hype seems sensible too, where can be applied within democracy.
These weren't politically motivated. We all run the risk of being murdered by terrorists. Murdering an MP is aa dreadful thing to do, but it is on exactly the same moral level as murdering anybody else.
Handing it to the existing party, is the one set up which permits the murderer to know in advance the electoral outcome of his act.
Both were political.
Jo Cox was murdered by a far-right extremist. David Amess was murdered by an Islamist.
Both are different to any random murder in that they are assaults on the democratic system.
The LD's don't have their major back. When was the last time you saw an LD holding forth in the media. I am on their email list and other than witless criticism of the government they have nothing to say about anything. All they are beneficiaries of voters anger with the government. Davey and Moran are probably wise to have no ideas and no policies at the present time.
I'm genuinely curious why it takes multiple hours to update the dashboard. Computers can go through hundreds of thousands of lines in a database without breaking a sweat.
A myriad of sources each requiring dedicated transformations and corss-checking, would be my guess.
Excel spreadsheet has fallen over with the huge numbers...the comment about taking a long time and miracle it even runs (after 2 years of this) doesn't sound like systems have been modernised, more sticking plasters.
It's probably an Excel macro in VB.
It isn't
This article seems to suggest at least there were back when the system fell over...
NHS England have reported 365 new Covid hospital deaths over the period 25-30th Dec.. These I think will be added to today's 4pm http://gov.uk number so I expect lots of noise on here about the high death number.
An operation to remove the masts from a sunken cargo ship in the River Thames, containing 1,400 tonnes of unstable explosives onboard, will involve Royal Navy specialists.
It is believed that if the unexploded ordnance on the SS Richard Montgomery were triggered it could lead to the nearby oil and gas facilities in Sheerness being damaged, the Daily Telegraph reports.
What could possibly go wrong?
The removal of the Richard Montgomery, and the danger of doing so, has been a point of discussion in that part of N Kent and in SE Essex since, IIRC, about 1947. 'Informed' opinion, in the pubs and clubs of SE Essex suggests that the consequence of removal will vary between the swamping of Canvey Island and the loss of a few windows along Southend sea front!
The experiences of the CHASE series and "Operation Sailor Hat" suggest that the "Montgomery = nuke" stuff is nonsense.
I do wonder a little what the reaction would be to showing this movie in the bars of Southend:
They should have gone for somebody more impartial like Prince Andrew....
Mrs P and I watched the Queen's speech on Christmas Day for the first time in years (mainly I admit because we thought it might be her last).
It was noticeable that Andrew was the only royal not to feature.
I don't think Prince Harry got a mention did he? I wasn't watching or listening closely, so he might have done, but I remember picking up very clear mentions of Willian and Kate doing great work about something or other, expecting Harry name to be mentioned next on the list and I don't think it came.
No, but he's not an actual royal anymore is he?
He doesn't do "duties" - just his own projects and self-promotion.
NHS England have reported 365 new Covid hospital deaths over the period 25-30th Dec.. These I think will be added to today's 4pm http://gov.uk number so I expect lots of noise on here about the high death number.
Fill that "hole" to match the existing slope etc.....
What kind of background music should we play at the panic, this evening? @MoonRabbit ?
I am thinking that the biscuits should be simple Hobnob for a change.
Seriously! When i am in a nite spot on Friday will they play Radiohead? We are not there to gaze at shoes! Admittedly I do spend a lot of time looking at people’s shoes, so maybe I am.
Honestly! Proper music has a beat. You can sing along. And enjoy yourself.
This
1..RAINBOW - ALL NIGHT LONG 2..UNDERTONES - TEENAGE KICKS 3..BLACK SABBATH - PARANOID 4..DEEP PURPLE - SMOKE ON THE WATER 5..LED ZEPPELIN - WHOLE LOTTA LOVE 6..BLONDIE - HEART OF GLASS. 7..JIMI HENDRIX - HEY JOE 8..THE THE - THIS IS THE DAY 9..THE WEDDING PRESENT - THIS IS MY FAVOURITE DRESS 10..THE JAM - TUBE STATION AT MIDNIGHT 11..BUZZCOCKS - EVER FALLEN IN LOVE 12..X-RAY SPEX - GERMFREE ADOLESCENTS 13..ROLLING STONES - SATISFACTION 14..JOY DIVISION - TRANSMISSION 15..QUEEN - WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS 16..THE WHO - PINBALL WIZZARD 17.. THE KINKS - AUTUMN ALMANAC 18..MOTORHEAD - ACE OF SPADES 19..ELVIS PRESLEY - IF I CAN DREAM 20..BEATLES - HELP
Biscuits. We just bought treacle sponge hobnobs. Why not? Still Christmas.
I'm genuinely curious why it takes multiple hours to update the dashboard. Computers can go through hundreds of thousands of lines in a database without breaking a sweat.
They get a vast mess of records that need to be cross-correlated and checked. Lots of manual interventions, Lots of de-duplicating data.
The data we see on the dashboard is the tip of the ice berg. Behind it is data down to the individual person level.
Excel spreadsheet has fallen over with the huge numbers...the comment about taking a long time and miracle it even runs (after 2 years of this) doesn't sound like systems have been modernised, more sticking plasters.
It's probably an Excel macro in VB.
It isn't
This article seems to suggest at least there were back when the system fell over...
If that is the case and they have their MOJO back they need to fight Southend West, as do Labour, otherwise their MOJO could stall amid a massive Reform Party vote. Suggest this issue is worth a thread on its won.
I agreee
I don’t agree. Assassinated when doing constituency work. It’s good manners to stand aside out of respect, and good principle not to look to gain from assassinated MP seat.
Yeah, I'm torn on this one. Would either of the two recently-deceased MPs want democracy suspended in their memory? The MP blown up by the IRA wasn't treated in the same fashion.
To be fair, Sinn Fein wasn't in the running to gain the seat.
Likewise, neo-Nazis weren't in the running for Batley in 2016, and the Taliban will probably sit Southend out.
NHS England have reported 365 new Covid hospital deaths over the period 25-30th Dec.. These I think will be added to today's 4pm http://gov.uk number so I expect lots of noise on here about the high death number.
Fill that "hole" to match the existing slope etc.....
What kind of background music should we play at the panic, this evening? @MoonRabbit ?
I am thinking that the biscuits should be simple Hobnob for a change.
Seriously! When i am in a nite spot on Friday will they play Radiohead? We are not there to gaze at shoes! Admittedly I do spend a lot of time looking at people’s shoes, so maybe I am.
Honestly! Proper music has a beat. You can sing along. And enjoy yourself.
This
1..RAINBOW - ALL NIGHT LONG 2..UNDERTONES - TEENAGE KICKS 3..BLACK SABBATH - PARANOID 4..DEEP PURPLE - SMOKE ON THE WATER 5..LED ZEPPELIN - WHOLE LOTTA LOVE 6..BLONDIE - HEART OF GLASS. 7..JIMI HENDRIX - HEY JOE 8..THE THE - THIS IS THE DAY 9..THE WEDDING PRESENT - THIS IS MY FAVOURITE DRESS 10..THE JAM - TUBE STATION AT MIDNIGHT 11..BUZZCOCKS - EVER FALLEN IN LOVE 12..X-RAY SPEX - GERMFREE ADOLESCENTS 13..ROLLING STONES - SATISFACTION 14..JOY DIVISION - TRANSMISSION 15..QUEEN - WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS 16..THE WHO - PINBALL WIZZARD 17.. THE KINKS - AUTUMN ALMANAC 18..MOTORHEAD - ACE OF SPADES 19..ELVIS PRESLEY - IF I CAN DREAM 20..BEATLES - HELP
Biscuits. We just bought treacle sponge hobnobs. Why not? Still Christmas.
Yay! So cool. I didn’t know I could copy paste a playlist so easy. Let’s Rock’n’Roll. 💃🏻
Excel spreadsheet has fallen over with the huge numbers...the comment about taking a long time and miracle it even runs (after 2 years of this) doesn't sound like systems have been modernised, more sticking plasters.
It's probably an Excel macro in VB.
It isn't
This article seems to suggest at least there were back when the system fell over...
Things may have changed after a known issue and 14 months.
Well we would hope so. But it does seems like its sticking plasters over sticking plasters to try and bring together the clusterf##k of different formats being feed into the system.
What are the principal threats and opportunities facing Johnson's premiership in 2022?
I was thinking:
Opportunities: 1. Omicron might be the effective end of Covid, if mild and it becomes ubiquitous... 2. ...in which case the decision not to increase restrictions further could look inspired. 3. Having survived the Q4 scandals there might be a quiet period with no fresh scandals. 4. If a leadership challenge comes Johnson could see it off with votes to spare, so deferring any further challenge to 2023 at the earliest. 5. Some foreign event leads to a 'rally to the flag' boost for Johnson (I'm thinking Ukraine, but hopefully not).
Threats: 1. Omicron proves very nasty and Johnson's decision to avoid further restrictions looks misguided at best. 2. Further Covid variants extend the misery throughout 2022. 3. Energy price rises hit consumers hard. 4. Supply issues come to the fore as the new EU trade regimes kicks in. 5. The NI rises land badly with the public. 6. Further hitherto unrevealed Johnson scandals emerge. 7. Major financial crash sparked by Evergreen/Ukraine/something else. 8. Tory MPs don't recover their faith in Johnson as a winner after an extended period of bad polls.
I am sure there are others on both sides of the account. Thoughts anyone?
3 and 5 are the biggest threats to Johnson I suspect. I think 8 will be, if it happens, a consequence of any combination of 1-6.
If that is the case and they have their MOJO back they need to fight Southend West, as do Labour, otherwise their MOJO could stall amid a massive Reform Party vote. Suggest this issue is worth a thread on its won.
I agreee
I don’t agree. Assassinated when doing constituency work. It’s good manners to stand aside out of respect, and good principle not to look to gain from assassinated MP seat.
Like Eastbourne?
I think the precedent set by Batley & Spen (first time around) is entirely wrong. There is no issue of "manners" here. The murders of both Jo Cox and David Amess were utterly tragic, but so were the deaths of James Brokenshire and Cheryl Gillan. But the residents in all those areas need to go on to pick a new MP, and I really don't see why they shouldn't have the usual range of choices.
I think the precedent set by Batley & Spen was right, and that the Lib Dems were wrong to gain Eastbourne.
Yes the deaths of Brokenshire and Gillan were tragic, but they were also natural. Seeking a replacement by following natural processes is reasonable.
The deaths or Cox and Amess are different, they were unnatural. They were politically motivated murders. If people who dislike a party can go around killing that parties MPs and seeking the MPs seat change hands as a result then that is leading us down a very dark path.
No politically motivated murder should ever be rewarded by the seat changing hands.
‘ No politically motivated murder should ever be rewarded by the seat changing hands. “
I agree with Bart.
Two MP assassinations in recent years, the political establishment have to ask, what is normal, is this the new normal, how to stop it becoming a trend.
As well as the principle Bart neatly summed up, dialling down on division and hype seems sensible too, where can be applied within democracy.
These weren't politically motivated. We all run the risk of being murdered by terrorists. Murdering an MP is aa dreadful thing to do, but it is on exactly the same moral level as murdering anybody else.
Handing it to the existing party, is the one set up which permits the murderer to know in advance the electoral outcome of his act.
Both were political.
Jo Cox was murdered by a far-right extremist. David Amess was murdered by an Islamist.
Both are different to any random murder in that they are assaults on the democratic system.
Good response to cave in and anoint instead of elect a successor, then. Anyway, they were fundamentally nutters with an ideological overlay. There is nothing particularly political about murdering an MP as part of a jihad - the guy didn't expect more jihad friendly policies to result from his action.
An operation to remove the masts from a sunken cargo ship in the River Thames, containing 1,400 tonnes of unstable explosives onboard, will involve Royal Navy specialists.
It is believed that if the unexploded ordnance on the SS Richard Montgomery were triggered it could lead to the nearby oil and gas facilities in Sheerness being damaged, the Daily Telegraph reports.
What could possibly go wrong?
The removal of the Richard Montgomery, and the danger of doing so, has been a point of discussion in that part of N Kent and in SE Essex since, IIRC, about 1947. 'Informed' opinion, in the pubs and clubs of SE Essex suggests that the consequence of removal will vary between the swamping of Canvey Island and the loss of a few windows along Southend sea front!
That's half as much TNT, assuming that it is all viable, as the equivalent of Halifax in 1917.
Another desperately quiet day at work and I come on here to find a nice thread about the Liberal Democrats which is always welcome.
North Shropshire has undeniably given both the party and Ed Davey a real boost. Davey now has two by-election gains to his credit and let's not forget he's a fighter having lost Kingston & Surbiton in the 2015 catastrophe, he went and won it back in 2017 and now has a healthy 10,000 majority. He's the only LD MP who lost his seat in 2015, regained it in 2017 and held on in 2019 (both Jo Swinson and Stephen Lloyd regained seats lost in 2015 at the next GE but lost at the last GE).
All isn't sweetness and light - the poll ratings remain modest at this time and I suspect there are islands of activity between vast oceans of constituencies where there is no meaningful LD presence.
As an example, the LDs hold 152 council seats in London but 109 of those are in Sutton, Kingston and Richmond which means only 43 seats in the remaining Boroughs and large numbers with no LD presence at all. I'm all for targeting resources but the party needs to start getting into new areas and building strength and winning seats.
Take a borough like Bromley - in 1998, the Liberal Democrats won 25 seats and for a short while ran the council with Labour - in 2014, the last councillors were defeated. That's the scale of the rebuilding that still needs to start seven years after the end of the Coalition.
There will be those who ask for what the Liberal Democrats stand - actually, that's not very important now - it's enough to be a home for disillusioned Conservatives (of whom there seem to be many currently) but there will come a point when the party will need to articulate its USP in a crowded market. They've made a good start opposing some of the proposed restrictions and no one talks about re-joining the EU or any of that nonsense.
In the same way, talking about the relationship with Starmer's Labour isn't all that important either. Both parties are fishing in different ponds for the same fish and it doesn't much matter on whose hook they end up.
FAir comment.
It's interest looking at Farron's seat - I was wondering if it is a Nonconformist area (to an extent), but it took the LDs years of work pre-Farron to win it, and is a a LD-Tory marginal much of the time recently.
Current majority 1934.
He needs a swing in the current direction to make it safe.
A Tory to LibDem swing doesn’t seem all that unlikely right now.
Sadly the seat won't exist after boundary changes.
On the current proposals, although it wouldn't shock me if these are changed in the final version. The changes in the NW generally are more radical than a two seat reduction from 75 to 73 probably requires, and that's worrying for a few MPs (either making seats less winnable or opening up selection contest issues). I can see fairly strong push-back.
Maybe, but if the previous reviews are anything to go by, libdem seats always seem to be changed radically. (cf Liverpool Edge Hill, Gordon, Leeds West to mention a few). It's a tad unfair, but it's the nature of the beast, libdem seats marooned in a sea of other party seats. They are bound to suffer. Better than the US reviews though.
NHS England have reported 365 new Covid hospital deaths over the period 25-30th Dec.. These I think will be added to today's 4pm http://gov.uk number so I expect lots of noise on here about the high death number.
Fill that "hole" to match the existing slope etc.....
What kind of background music should we play at the panic, this evening? @MoonRabbit ?
I am thinking that the biscuits should be simple Hobnob for a change.
Perhaps cake for a change? Death by Chocolate?
I like your thinking.
For the music - Felt Kuti? Susana Baca?
Thanks. Somehow both these artists' oeuvres had passed me by. Susana Baca seems all too upbeat to accompanying panic and death. So let's go with Kuti. There is a menace in those drums.
NHS England have reported 365 new Covid hospital deaths over the period 25-30th Dec.. These I think will be added to today's 4pm http://gov.uk number so I expect lots of noise on here about the high death number.
Fill that "hole" to match the existing slope etc.....
What kind of background music should we play at the panic, this evening? @MoonRabbit ?
I am thinking that the biscuits should be simple Hobnob for a change.
Seriously! When i am in a nite spot on Friday will they play Radiohead? We are not there to gaze at shoes! Admittedly I do spend a lot of time looking at people’s shoes, so maybe I am.
Honestly! Proper music has a beat. You can sing along. And enjoy yourself.
This
1..RAINBOW - ALL NIGHT LONG 2..UNDERTONES - TEENAGE KICKS 3..BLACK SABBATH - PARANOID 4..DEEP PURPLE - SMOKE ON THE WATER 5..LED ZEPPELIN - WHOLE LOTTA LOVE 6..BLONDIE - HEART OF GLASS. 7..JIMI HENDRIX - HEY JOE 8..THE THE - THIS IS THE DAY 9..THE WEDDING PRESENT - THIS IS MY FAVOURITE DRESS 10..THE JAM - TUBE STATION AT MIDNIGHT 11..BUZZCOCKS - EVER FALLEN IN LOVE 12..X-RAY SPEX - GERMFREE ADOLESCENTS 13..ROLLING STONES - SATISFACTION 14..JOY DIVISION - TRANSMISSION 15..QUEEN - WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS 16..THE WHO - PINBALL WIZZARD 17.. THE KINKS - AUTUMN ALMANAC 18..MOTORHEAD - ACE OF SPADES 19..ELVIS PRESLEY - IF I CAN DREAM 20..BEATLES - HELP
Biscuits. We just bought treacle sponge hobnobs. Why not? Still Christmas.
Excel spreadsheet has fallen over with the huge numbers...the comment about taking a long time and miracle it even runs (after 2 years of this) doesn't sound like systems have been modernised, more sticking plasters.
It's probably an Excel macro in VB.
It isn't
This article seems to suggest at least there were back when the system fell over...
If that is the case and they have their MOJO back they need to fight Southend West, as do Labour, otherwise their MOJO could stall amid a massive Reform Party vote. Suggest this issue is worth a thread on its won.
I agreee
I don’t agree. Assassinated when doing constituency work. It’s good manners to stand aside out of respect, and good principle not to look to gain from assassinated MP seat.
Like Eastbourne?
I think the precedent set by Batley & Spen (first time around) is entirely wrong. There is no issue of "manners" here. The murders of both Jo Cox and David Amess were utterly tragic, but so were the deaths of James Brokenshire and Cheryl Gillan. But the residents in all those areas need to go on to pick a new MP, and I really don't see why they shouldn't have the usual range of choices.
I think the precedent set by Batley & Spen was right, and that the Lib Dems were wrong to gain Eastbourne.
Yes the deaths of Brokenshire and Gillan were tragic, but they were also natural. Seeking a replacement by following natural processes is reasonable.
The deaths or Cox and Amess are different, they were unnatural. They were politically motivated murders. If people who dislike a party can go around killing that parties MPs and seeking the MPs seat change hands as a result then that is leading us down a very dark path.
No politically motivated murder should ever be rewarded by the seat changing hands.
‘ No politically motivated murder should ever be rewarded by the seat changing hands. “
I agree with Bart.
Two MP assassinations in recent years, the political establishment have to ask, what is normal, is this the new normal, how to stop it becoming a trend.
As well as the principle Bart neatly summed up, dialling down on division and hype seems sensible too, where can be applied within democracy.
These weren't politically motivated. We all run the risk of being murdered by terrorists. Murdering an MP is aa dreadful thing to do, but it is on exactly the same moral level as murdering anybody else.
Handing it to the existing party, is the one set up which permits the murderer to know in advance the electoral outcome of his act.
Both were political.
Jo Cox was murdered by a far-right extremist. David Amess was murdered by an Islamist.
Both are different to any random murder in that they are assaults on the democratic system.
Good response to cave in and anoint instead of elect a successor, then. Anyway, they were fundamentally nutters with an ideological overlay. There is nothing particularly political about murdering an MP as part of a jihad - the guy didn't expect more jihad friendly policies to result from his action.
That's an interesting conclusion.
Murdering a politician because you hate and want to overthrow the political system he represents is not political.
Hmmm.
There will still be the same elections there would have been, even with some candidates not standing as a mark of respect - the last GE and the next GE.
NHS England have reported 365 new Covid hospital deaths over the period 25-30th Dec.. These I think will be added to today's 4pm http://gov.uk number so I expect lots of noise on here about the high death number.
Fill that "hole" to match the existing slope etc.....
What kind of background music should we play at the panic, this evening? @MoonRabbit ?
I am thinking that the biscuits should be simple Hobnob for a change.
Seriously! When i am in a nite spot on Friday will they play Radiohead? We are not there to gaze at shoes! Admittedly I do spend a lot of time looking at people’s shoes, so maybe I am.
Honestly! Proper music has a beat. You can sing along. And enjoy yourself.
This
1..RAINBOW - ALL NIGHT LONG 2..UNDERTONES - TEENAGE KICKS 3..BLACK SABBATH - PARANOID 4..DEEP PURPLE - SMOKE ON THE WATER 5..LED ZEPPELIN - WHOLE LOTTA LOVE 6..BLONDIE - HEART OF GLASS. 7..JIMI HENDRIX - HEY JOE 8..THE THE - THIS IS THE DAY 9..THE WEDDING PRESENT - THIS IS MY FAVOURITE DRESS 10..THE JAM - TUBE STATION AT MIDNIGHT 11..BUZZCOCKS - EVER FALLEN IN LOVE 12..X-RAY SPEX - GERMFREE ADOLESCENTS 13..ROLLING STONES - SATISFACTION 14..JOY DIVISION - TRANSMISSION 15..QUEEN - WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS 16..THE WHO - PINBALL WIZZARD 17.. THE KINKS - AUTUMN ALMANAC 18..MOTORHEAD - ACE OF SPADES 19..ELVIS PRESLEY - IF I CAN DREAM 20..BEATLES - HELP
Biscuits. We just bought treacle sponge hobnobs. Why not? Still Christmas.
Top tip - add one Manics and one Talking Heads track. Increases the cred of any playlist by 10,000% (approx)
The LD's don't have their major back. When was the last time you saw an LD holding forth in the media. I am on their email list and other than witless criticism of the government they have nothing to say about anything. All they are beneficiaries of voters anger with the government. Davey and Moran are probably wise to have no ideas and no policies at the present time.
The point has been made before that the LD's are suffering from being the 4th Party in Parliament. The Minister gets called; the Shadow gets called. Then the SNP spokesperson gets called. When Thorpe, Steel and Ashdown were Leaders of the Third Party they got called regularly, and, as they charismatic speakers, got reported. Davey can't get the same automatic coverage.
Excel spreadsheet has fallen over with the huge numbers...the comment about taking a long time and miracle it even runs (after 2 years of this) doesn't sound like systems have been modernised, more sticking plasters.
It's probably an Excel macro in VB.
It isn't
This article seems to suggest at least there were back when the system fell over...
Off Topic I know, but does anyone know whether the police have done anything about those disgraceful antivaxxers at MK yesterday?
Still collecting reports afaics.
They are recently practiced in getting someone sectioned, however - Windsor Castle 'Assassin' from last week.
What grounds would they have to section anyone ?
I get their views and actions are unpopular and they are protesting in a way which may well have been illegal. But sectioning them. Why ? Anyway what good would it do. It would only feed into their conspiracy theories.
What are the principal threats and opportunities facing Johnson's premiership in 2022?
I was thinking:
Opportunities: 1. Omicron might be the effective end of Covid, if mild and it becomes ubiquitous... 2. ...in which case the decision not to increase restrictions further could look inspired. 3. Having survived the Q4 scandals there might be a quiet period with no fresh scandals. 4. If a leadership challenge comes Johnson could see it off with votes to spare, so deferring any further challenge to 2023 at the earliest. 5. Some foreign event leads to a 'rally to the flag' boost for Johnson (I'm thinking Ukraine, but hopefully not).
Threats: 1. Omicron proves very nasty and Johnson's decision to avoid further restrictions looks misguided at best. 2. Further Covid variants extend the misery throughout 2022. 3. Energy price rises hit consumers hard. 4. Supply issues come to the fore as the new EU trade regimes kicks in. 5. The NI rises land badly with the public. 6. Further hitherto unrevealed Johnson scandals emerge. 7. Major financial crash sparked by Evergreen/Ukraine/something else. 8. Tory MPs don't recover their faith in Johnson as a winner after an extended period of bad polls.
I am sure there are others on both sides of the account. Thoughts anyone?
3 and 5 are the biggest threats to Johnson I suspect. I think 8 will be, if it happens, a consequence of any combination of 1-6.
I don't think 5) is a threat because the public are on board with a hypothecated tax for the NHS.
Off Topic I know, but does anyone know whether the police have done anything about those disgraceful antivaxxers at MK yesterday?
Still collecting reports afaics.
They are recently practiced in getting someone sectioned, however - Windsor Castle 'Assassin' from last week.
What grounds would they have to section anyone ?
I get their views and actions are unpopular and they are protesting in a way which may well have been illegal. But sectioning them. Why ? Anyway what good would it do. It would only feed into their conspiracy theories.
Their lunacy is a danger to themselves and others.
NHS England have reported 365 new Covid hospital deaths over the period 25-30th Dec.. These I think will be added to today's 4pm http://gov.uk number so I expect lots of noise on here about the high death number.
Fill that "hole" to match the existing slope etc.....
What kind of background music should we play at the panic, this evening? @MoonRabbit ?
I am thinking that the biscuits should be simple Hobnob for a change.
Seriously! When i am in a nite spot on Friday will they play Radiohead? We are not there to gaze at shoes! Admittedly I do spend a lot of time looking at people’s shoes, so maybe I am.
Honestly! Proper music has a beat. You can sing along. And enjoy yourself.
This
1..RAINBOW - ALL NIGHT LONG 2..UNDERTONES - TEENAGE KICKS 3..BLACK SABBATH - PARANOID 4..DEEP PURPLE - SMOKE ON THE WATER 5..LED ZEPPELIN - WHOLE LOTTA LOVE 6..BLONDIE - HEART OF GLASS. 7..JIMI HENDRIX - HEY JOE 8..THE THE - THIS IS THE DAY 9..THE WEDDING PRESENT - THIS IS MY FAVOURITE DRESS 10..THE JAM - TUBE STATION AT MIDNIGHT 11..BUZZCOCKS - EVER FALLEN IN LOVE 12..X-RAY SPEX - GERMFREE ADOLESCENTS 13..ROLLING STONES - SATISFACTION 14..JOY DIVISION - TRANSMISSION 15..QUEEN - WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS 16..THE WHO - PINBALL WIZZARD 17.. THE KINKS - AUTUMN ALMANAC 18..MOTORHEAD - ACE OF SPADES 19..ELVIS PRESLEY - IF I CAN DREAM 20..BEATLES - HELP
Biscuits. We just bought treacle sponge hobnobs. Why not? Still Christmas.
Panic? I don’t think there should be panic. Omicron had taken over and it’s not as vicious. Everything so far looks quite sedate on hospitals and deaths in this wave. Vaccines are working.
I don’t think there should be any panic.
It feels like it’s coming to an end. Years or bizarreness, but it will soon get forgotten.
The NHS backlog probably greater concern than covid now. 😕
What are the principal threats and opportunities facing Johnson's premiership in 2022?
I was thinking:
Opportunities: 1. Omicron might be the effective end of Covid, if mild and it becomes ubiquitous... 2. ...in which case the decision not to increase restrictions further could look inspired. 3. Having survived the Q4 scandals there might be a quiet period with no fresh scandals. 4. If a leadership challenge comes Johnson could see it off with votes to spare, so deferring any further challenge to 2023 at the earliest. 5. Some foreign event leads to a 'rally to the flag' boost for Johnson (I'm thinking Ukraine, but hopefully not).
Threats: 1. Omicron proves very nasty and Johnson's decision to avoid further restrictions looks misguided at best. 2. Further Covid variants extend the misery throughout 2022. 3. Energy price rises hit consumers hard. 4. Supply issues come to the fore as the new EU trade regimes kicks in. 5. The NI rises land badly with the public. 6. Further hitherto unrevealed Johnson scandals emerge. 7. Major financial crash sparked by Evergreen/Ukraine/something else. 8. Tory MPs don't recover their faith in Johnson as a winner after an extended period of bad polls.
I am sure there are others on both sides of the account. Thoughts anyone?
3 and 5 are the biggest threats to Johnson I suspect. I think 8 will be, if it happens, a consequence of any combination of 1-6.
I don't think 5) is a threat because the public are on board with a hypothecated tax for the NHS.
People love taxes that others pay - they also likes taxes up to the point the tax appears on their payslip and reduces their pay.
At that point things start to look very different.
Off Topic I know, but does anyone know whether the police have done anything about those disgraceful antivaxxers at MK yesterday?
Still collecting reports afaics.
They are recently practiced in getting someone sectioned, however - Windsor Castle 'Assassin' from last week.
What grounds would they have to section anyone ?
I get their views and actions are unpopular and they are protesting in a way which may well have been illegal. But sectioning them. Why ? Anyway what good would it do. It would only feed into their conspiracy theories.
Their lunacy is a danger to themselves and others.
You need to show a bit more love and understanding to these people and less hate
NHS England have reported 365 new Covid hospital deaths over the period 25-30th Dec.. These I think will be added to today's 4pm http://gov.uk number so I expect lots of noise on here about the high death number.
Fill that "hole" to match the existing slope etc.....
What kind of background music should we play at the panic, this evening? @MoonRabbit ?
I am thinking that the biscuits should be simple Hobnob for a change.
Seriously! When i am in a nite spot on Friday will they play Radiohead? We are not there to gaze at shoes! Admittedly I do spend a lot of time looking at people’s shoes, so maybe I am.
Honestly! Proper music has a beat. You can sing along. And enjoy yourself.
This
1..RAINBOW - ALL NIGHT LONG 2..UNDERTONES - TEENAGE KICKS 3..BLACK SABBATH - PARANOID 4..DEEP PURPLE - SMOKE ON THE WATER 5..LED ZEPPELIN - WHOLE LOTTA LOVE 6..BLONDIE - HEART OF GLASS. 7..JIMI HENDRIX - HEY JOE 8..THE THE - THIS IS THE DAY 9..THE WEDDING PRESENT - THIS IS MY FAVOURITE DRESS 10..THE JAM - TUBE STATION AT MIDNIGHT 11..BUZZCOCKS - EVER FALLEN IN LOVE 12..X-RAY SPEX - GERMFREE ADOLESCENTS 13..ROLLING STONES - SATISFACTION 14..JOY DIVISION - TRANSMISSION 15..QUEEN - WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS 16..THE WHO - PINBALL WIZZARD 17.. THE KINKS - AUTUMN ALMANAC 18..MOTORHEAD - ACE OF SPADES 19..ELVIS PRESLEY - IF I CAN DREAM 20..BEATLES - HELP
Biscuits. We just bought treacle sponge hobnobs. Why not? Still Christmas.
Top tip - add one Manics and one Talking Heads track. Increases the cred of any playlist by 10,000% (approx)
Okay. I’m not arguing. I have other play lists.
Dura Ace mentioned neutral milk, that’s amiss on my list. Let’s stuff the panic and do Ghost.
If that is the case and they have their MOJO back they need to fight Southend West, as do Labour, otherwise their MOJO could stall amid a massive Reform Party vote. Suggest this issue is worth a thread on its won.
I agreee
I don’t agree. Assassinated when doing constituency work. It’s good manners to stand aside out of respect, and good principle not to look to gain from assassinated MP seat.
Like Eastbourne?
I think the precedent set by Batley & Spen (first time around) is entirely wrong. There is no issue of "manners" here. The murders of both Jo Cox and David Amess were utterly tragic, but so were the deaths of James Brokenshire and Cheryl Gillan. But the residents in all those areas need to go on to pick a new MP, and I really don't see why they shouldn't have the usual range of choices.
I think the precedent set by Batley & Spen was right, and that the Lib Dems were wrong to gain Eastbourne.
Yes the deaths of Brokenshire and Gillan were tragic, but they were also natural. Seeking a replacement by following natural processes is reasonable.
The deaths or Cox and Amess are different, they were unnatural. They were politically motivated murders. If people who dislike a party can go around killing that parties MPs and seeking the MPs seat change hands as a result then that is leading us down a very dark path.
No politically motivated murder should ever be rewarded by the seat changing hands.
‘ No politically motivated murder should ever be rewarded by the seat changing hands. “
I agree with Bart.
Two MP assassinations in recent years, the political establishment have to ask, what is normal, is this the new normal, how to stop it becoming a trend.
As well as the principle Bart neatly summed up, dialling down on division and hype seems sensible too, where can be applied within democracy.
These weren't politically motivated. We all run the risk of being murdered by terrorists. Murdering an MP is aa dreadful thing to do, but it is on exactly the same moral level as murdering anybody else.
Handing it to the existing party, is the one set up which permits the murderer to know in advance the electoral outcome of his act.
Both were political.
Jo Cox was murdered by a far-right extremist. David Amess was murdered by an Islamist.
Both are different to any random murder in that they are assaults on the democratic system.
Good response to cave in and anoint instead of elect a successor, then. Anyway, they were fundamentally nutters with an ideological overlay. There is nothing particularly political about murdering an MP as part of a jihad - the guy didn't expect more jihad friendly policies to result from his action.
That's an interesting conclusion.
Murdering a politician because you hate and want to overthrow the political system he represents is not political.
Hmmm.
There will still be the same elections there would have been, even with some candidates not standing as a mark of respect - the last GE and the next GE.
You think these guys seriously thought they were going to be overthrowing systems? They are just nutters and wankers, and the only way to give any political consequence to their actions at all is to rewrite the electoral rules just for them.
The LD's don't have their major back. When was the last time you saw an LD holding forth in the media. I am on their email list and other than witless criticism of the government they have nothing to say about anything. All they are beneficiaries of voters anger with the government. Davey and Moran are probably wise to have no ideas and no policies at the present time.
The last time I looked, neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats were in Government. If you think the Government should be immune from scrutiny or criticism, that's a view yo which you are entitled but it's nonsense.
Being critical of the Government is what being in opposition is about - it's interesting that on here Labour are often pilloried when they support the Government as much as they are pilloried when opposing it.
As to "having nothing to say about anything", we are more than two years from a GE. Why should either Labour or the LDs give a detailed exposition of their policies now - yes, they will need to when the time comes and their policy programmes can be rightly scrutinised as will the Govenrment's record and its performance on enacting the 2019 Manifesto on which it was, after all, elected.
My final thought is if you don't like "witless criticism" of your precious Conservative Government, why don't you unsubscribe from the email list?
NHS England have reported 365 new Covid hospital deaths over the period 25-30th Dec.. These I think will be added to today's 4pm http://gov.uk number so I expect lots of noise on here about the high death number.
Fill that "hole" to match the existing slope etc.....
What kind of background music should we play at the panic, this evening? @MoonRabbit ?
I am thinking that the biscuits should be simple Hobnob for a change.
Seriously! When i am in a nite spot on Friday will they play Radiohead? We are not there to gaze at shoes! Admittedly I do spend a lot of time looking at people’s shoes, so maybe I am.
Honestly! Proper music has a beat. You can sing along. And enjoy yourself.
This
1..RAINBOW - ALL NIGHT LONG 2..UNDERTONES - TEENAGE KICKS 3..BLACK SABBATH - PARANOID 4..DEEP PURPLE - SMOKE ON THE WATER 5..LED ZEPPELIN - WHOLE LOTTA LOVE 6..BLONDIE - HEART OF GLASS. 7..JIMI HENDRIX - HEY JOE 8..THE THE - THIS IS THE DAY 9..THE WEDDING PRESENT - THIS IS MY FAVOURITE DRESS 10..THE JAM - TUBE STATION AT MIDNIGHT 11..BUZZCOCKS - EVER FALLEN IN LOVE 12..X-RAY SPEX - GERMFREE ADOLESCENTS 13..ROLLING STONES - SATISFACTION 14..JOY DIVISION - TRANSMISSION 15..QUEEN - WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS 16..THE WHO - PINBALL WIZZARD 17.. THE KINKS - AUTUMN ALMANAC 18..MOTORHEAD - ACE OF SPADES 19..ELVIS PRESLEY - IF I CAN DREAM 20..BEATLES - HELP
Biscuits. We just bought treacle sponge hobnobs. Why not? Still Christmas.
Top tip - add one Manics and one Talking Heads track. Increases the cred of any playlist by 10,000% (approx)
A US Air Force E-8C Joint STARS battle management plane has made its maiden flight over eastern Ukraine for a reconnaissance mission to gather information about the situation on the ground, an American official has revealed, as tensions continue.
Alongside thrillers, romantic comedies and dramas, Netflix in Russia will now let viewers tune into Kremlin propaganda after the country’s media watchdog ordered it to provide streaming of state television channels.
Roskomnadzor said Netflix would have to include 20 state TV channels among its list of films and series, including the Russian Orthodox Church’s channel Spas, which translates as “Saved”.
It will also be obliged to stream Russia 1, which broadcasts Moscow. Kremlin. Putin — a weekly TV show devoted to the president’s activities. TV Dozhd, an online opposition channel, has accused the programme of Soviet-style propaganda.
Netflix was added to Roskomnadzor’s list of “audio-visual services” this week. The register, created last year, requires streaming services with more than 100,000 daily users to also host major Russian TV channels.
An operation to remove the masts from a sunken cargo ship in the River Thames, containing 1,400 tonnes of unstable explosives onboard, will involve Royal Navy specialists.
It is believed that if the unexploded ordnance on the SS Richard Montgomery were triggered it could lead to the nearby oil and gas facilities in Sheerness being damaged, the Daily Telegraph reports.
What could possibly go wrong?
The removal of the Richard Montgomery, and the danger of doing so, has been a point of discussion in that part of N Kent and in SE Essex since, IIRC, about 1947. 'Informed' opinion, in the pubs and clubs of SE Essex suggests that the consequence of removal will vary between the swamping of Canvey Island and the loss of a few windows along Southend sea front!
That's half as much TNT, assuming that it is all viable, as the equivalent of Halifax in 1917.
That's the fear. Much bigger population, especially along the North bank of the Thames.
Off Topic I know, but does anyone know whether the police have done anything about those disgraceful antivaxxers at MK yesterday?
Still collecting reports afaics.
They are recently practiced in getting someone sectioned, however - Windsor Castle 'Assassin' from last week.
What grounds would they have to section anyone ?
I get their views and actions are unpopular and they are protesting in a way which may well have been illegal. But sectioning them. Why ? Anyway what good would it do. It would only feed into their conspiracy theories.
Their lunacy is a danger to themselves and others.
Lunacy ? They just have a different viewpoint and believe certain conspiracy theories. Does not make them mad. You go down the road of sectioning protesters you don’t like then where does it end. You’ll be sectioning any protesters.
The LD's don't have their major back. When was the last time you saw an LD holding forth in the media. I am on their email list and other than witless criticism of the government they have nothing to say about anything. All they are beneficiaries of voters anger with the government. Davey and Moran are probably wise to have no ideas and no policies at the present time.
The point has been made before that the LD's are suffering from being the 4th Party in Parliament. The Minister gets called; the Shadow gets called. Then the SNP spokesperson gets called. When Thorpe, Steel and Ashdown were Leaders of the Third Party they got called regularly, and, as they charismatic speakers, got reported. Davey can't get the same automatic coverage.
Sadly true. It is also one of the reasons I never watch QT anymore, (apart from the lightweight Fiona Bruce in charge) Farage is on more often it seems, and who's he for God's sake.
NHS England have reported 365 new Covid hospital deaths over the period 25-30th Dec.. These I think will be added to today's 4pm http://gov.uk number so I expect lots of noise on here about the high death number.
Fill that "hole" to match the existing slope etc.....
What kind of background music should we play at the panic, this evening? @MoonRabbit ?
I am thinking that the biscuits should be simple Hobnob for a change.
Seriously! When i am in a nite spot on Friday will they play Radiohead? We are not there to gaze at shoes! Admittedly I do spend a lot of time looking at people’s shoes, so maybe I am.
Honestly! Proper music has a beat. You can sing along. And enjoy yourself.
This
1..RAINBOW - ALL NIGHT LONG 2..UNDERTONES - TEENAGE KICKS 3..BLACK SABBATH - PARANOID 4..DEEP PURPLE - SMOKE ON THE WATER 5..LED ZEPPELIN - WHOLE LOTTA LOVE 6..BLONDIE - HEART OF GLASS. 7..JIMI HENDRIX - HEY JOE 8..THE THE - THIS IS THE DAY 9..THE WEDDING PRESENT - THIS IS MY FAVOURITE DRESS 10..THE JAM - TUBE STATION AT MIDNIGHT 11..BUZZCOCKS - EVER FALLEN IN LOVE 12..X-RAY SPEX - GERMFREE ADOLESCENTS 13..ROLLING STONES - SATISFACTION 14..JOY DIVISION - TRANSMISSION 15..QUEEN - WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS 16..THE WHO - PINBALL WIZZARD 17.. THE KINKS - AUTUMN ALMANAC 18..MOTORHEAD - ACE OF SPADES 19..ELVIS PRESLEY - IF I CAN DREAM 20..BEATLES - HELP
Biscuits. We just bought treacle sponge hobnobs. Why not? Still Christmas.
Panic? I don’t think there should be panic. Omicron had taken over and it’s not as vicious. Everything so far looks quite sedate on hospitals and deaths in this wave. Vaccines are working.
I don’t think there should be any panic.
It feels like it’s coming to an end. Years or bizarreness, but it will soon get forgotten.
The NHS backlog probably greater concern than covid now. 😕
I think there should be a proper PB Panic.
To be held in the church hall. With those folding chairs and tables that try and remove your fingers. With badly photocopied agendas, Naff music on the ancient sound system. Tea brewing up in the big boiler. A play pen for all the @SeanTs to run round in screaming about the end of the world.....
At the end of the evening the caretaker runs the floor polishing machine to remove the scuff marks from peoples shoes......
Excel spreadsheet has fallen over with the huge numbers...the comment about taking a long time and miracle it even runs (after 2 years of this) doesn't sound like systems have been modernised, more sticking plasters.
It's probably an Excel macro in VB.
It isn't
This article seems to suggest at least there were back when the system fell over...
Isn't the top guy leaving this project at the end of the year? It seems now they have started to get a handle on this stuff, perhaps it might be a good idea to try best to keep the team together to work towards overhauling the rest of the data disasters across the public sector?
NHS England have reported 365 new Covid hospital deaths over the period 25-30th Dec.. These I think will be added to today's 4pm http://gov.uk number so I expect lots of noise on here about the high death number.
Fill that "hole" to match the existing slope etc.....
What kind of background music should we play at the panic, this evening? @MoonRabbit ?
I am thinking that the biscuits should be simple Hobnob for a change.
Seriously! When i am in a nite spot on Friday will they play Radiohead? We are not there to gaze at shoes! Admittedly I do spend a lot of time looking at people’s shoes, so maybe I am.
Honestly! Proper music has a beat. You can sing along. And enjoy yourself.
This
1..RAINBOW - ALL NIGHT LONG 2..UNDERTONES - TEENAGE KICKS 3..BLACK SABBATH - PARANOID 4..DEEP PURPLE - SMOKE ON THE WATER 5..LED ZEPPELIN - WHOLE LOTTA LOVE 6..BLONDIE - HEART OF GLASS. 7..JIMI HENDRIX - HEY JOE 8..THE THE - THIS IS THE DAY 9..THE WEDDING PRESENT - THIS IS MY FAVOURITE DRESS 10..THE JAM - TUBE STATION AT MIDNIGHT 11..BUZZCOCKS - EVER FALLEN IN LOVE 12..X-RAY SPEX - GERMFREE ADOLESCENTS 13..ROLLING STONES - SATISFACTION 14..JOY DIVISION - TRANSMISSION 15..QUEEN - WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS 16..THE WHO - PINBALL WIZZARD 17.. THE KINKS - AUTUMN ALMANAC 18..MOTORHEAD - ACE OF SPADES 19..ELVIS PRESLEY - IF I CAN DREAM 20..BEATLES - HELP
Biscuits. We just bought treacle sponge hobnobs. Why not? Still Christmas.
Panic? I don’t think there should be panic. Omicron had taken over and it’s not as vicious. Everything so far looks quite sedate on hospitals and deaths in this wave. Vaccines are working.
I don’t think there should be any panic.
It feels like it’s coming to an end. Years or bizarreness, but it will soon get forgotten.
The NHS backlog probably greater concern than covid now. 😕
I think there should be a proper PB Panic.
To be held in the church hall. With those folding chairs and tables that try and remove your fingers. With badly photocopied agendas, Naff music on the ancient sound system. Tea brewing up in the big boiler. A play pen for all the @SeanTs to run round in screaming about the end of the world.....
At the end of the evening the caretaker runs the floor polishing machine to remove the scuff marks from peoples shoes......
Over 2000 admissions reported in England for first time in months today (from Tuesday).
I mentioned earlier that the Welsh case numbers were 21000 today after 6000 yesterday. Perhaps the UK number is so high they are rechecking everything to possibly discover a glitch.
NHS England have reported 365 new Covid hospital deaths over the period 25-30th Dec.. These I think will be added to today's 4pm http://gov.uk number so I expect lots of noise on here about the high death number.
Fill that "hole" to match the existing slope etc.....
What kind of background music should we play at the panic, this evening? @MoonRabbit ?
I am thinking that the biscuits should be simple Hobnob for a change.
Seriously! When i am in a nite spot on Friday will they play Radiohead? We are not there to gaze at shoes! Admittedly I do spend a lot of time looking at people’s shoes, so maybe I am.
Honestly! Proper music has a beat. You can sing along. And enjoy yourself.
This
1..RAINBOW - ALL NIGHT LONG 2..UNDERTONES - TEENAGE KICKS 3..BLACK SABBATH - PARANOID 4..DEEP PURPLE - SMOKE ON THE WATER 5..LED ZEPPELIN - WHOLE LOTTA LOVE 6..BLONDIE - HEART OF GLASS. 7..JIMI HENDRIX - HEY JOE 8..THE THE - THIS IS THE DAY 9..THE WEDDING PRESENT - THIS IS MY FAVOURITE DRESS 10..THE JAM - TUBE STATION AT MIDNIGHT 11..BUZZCOCKS - EVER FALLEN IN LOVE 12..X-RAY SPEX - GERMFREE ADOLESCENTS 13..ROLLING STONES - SATISFACTION 14..JOY DIVISION - TRANSMISSION 15..QUEEN - WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS 16..THE WHO - PINBALL WIZZARD 17.. THE KINKS - AUTUMN ALMANAC 18..MOTORHEAD - ACE OF SPADES 19..ELVIS PRESLEY - IF I CAN DREAM 20..BEATLES - HELP
Biscuits. We just bought treacle sponge hobnobs. Why not? Still Christmas.
Panic? I don’t think there should be panic. Omicron had taken over and it’s not as vicious. Everything so far looks quite sedate on hospitals and deaths in this wave. Vaccines are working.
I don’t think there should be any panic.
It feels like it’s coming to an end. Years or bizarreness, but it will soon get forgotten.
The NHS backlog probably greater concern than covid now. 😕
I think there should be a proper PB Panic.
To be held in the church hall. With those folding chairs and tables that try and remove your fingers. With badly photocopied agendas, Naff music on the ancient sound system. Tea brewing up in the big boiler. A play pen for all the @SeanTs to run round in screaming about the end of the world.....
At the end of the evening the caretaker runs the floor polishing machine to remove the scuff marks from peoples shoes......
A cosy, British panic.
Do we get tea and cakes?
If not, I'm not going.
Home made cakes? Now we're talking. Who's making them?
On topic, OGH is - I'm sure - completely correct that Labour voters are going to be more prepared to vote tactically in 2024.
But it is worth noting that this will probably only result in a fairly small list of LibDem gains. Let's assume the following:
(1) The Conservative vote in a seat falls by 10% (2) If the Labour Party is more than 10 points behind the LibDems, then half the Labour vote goes to the LDs.
The second assumption is to deal with seats that are three-way marginals. And, of course, this analysis does not deal with the boundary changes which will make encouraging tactical voting harder for the LDs.
Together, these look like a fairly sensible set of assumptions for the LDs. You can be more aggressive if you like, and maybe assume the LD vote share rises to 14 or 15% nationally. But let's take mine as a starting point. What do they mean?
Well, they mean the LDs gain 6 to 12 English seats. I have a range, because quite a few of these would actually be quite difficult asks.
Here they are:
Wimbledon: but that requires that the LDs become the principle challenger. That's no sure thing. (35% chance of LD gain)
Carshalton & Wallington: well... I suspect the LDs will be starting all over with a new candidate. I suspect the LDs fall back here. (25% chance)
Cheltenham: LD gain (80% chance)
Winchester: LD gain (80% chance)
Cheadle: LD gain (70% chance)
Cambridgeshire South: LD gain (70% chance)
Esher & Walton: LD gain (75% chance)
Lewes: suddenly, we're getting into territory where there's not a lot of Labour vote to squeeze. On my assumptions, the LDs gain Lewes, but it's starting to get a bit tight. Shall we say 65% chance?
Eastbourne: Labour + LibDem does not beat the Conservatives here, so you're relying on the that 10% drop in the Conservative vote. 40% chance.
St Ives: as above... only will Andrew George stand again? If he does, then I'd make it a 50:50 shot. If he does not, then only a 10% one.
Hazel Grove: it's pretty close on my assumptions. Say a 60% chance.
Hitchin and Harpenden: this looks a lot like St Albans and there's a bit Labour vote to squeeze. Still, can't be more than a 50:50 shot under my assumptions
South West Surrey: my assumptions don't get you particularly close... Nor for Wells...
So, that's six seats (on old boundaries) that I would reckon as likely LD gains, and another half dozen they stand a decent chance in.
I mean, it's progress for the LDs. But against that, they're very likely to lose the new Highlands seat, and Fife could be dicey too.
Off Topic I know, but does anyone know whether the police have done anything about those disgraceful antivaxxers at MK yesterday?
Still collecting reports afaics.
They are recently practiced in getting someone sectioned, however - Windsor Castle 'Assassin' from last week.
What grounds would they have to section anyone ?
I get their views and actions are unpopular and they are protesting in a way which may well have been illegal. But sectioning them. Why ? Anyway what good would it do. It would only feed into their conspiracy theories.
Their lunacy is a danger to themselves and others.
Lunacy ? They just have a different viewpoint and believe certain conspiracy theories. Does not make them mad. You go down the road of sectioning protesters you don’t like then where does it end. You’ll be sectioning any protesters.
NHS England have reported 365 new Covid hospital deaths over the period 25-30th Dec.. These I think will be added to today's 4pm http://gov.uk number so I expect lots of noise on here about the high death number.
Fill that "hole" to match the existing slope etc.....
What kind of background music should we play at the panic, this evening? @MoonRabbit ?
I am thinking that the biscuits should be simple Hobnob for a change.
Seriously! When i am in a nite spot on Friday will they play Radiohead? We are not there to gaze at shoes! Admittedly I do spend a lot of time looking at people’s shoes, so maybe I am.
Honestly! Proper music has a beat. You can sing along. And enjoy yourself.
This
1..RAINBOW - ALL NIGHT LONG 2..UNDERTONES - TEENAGE KICKS 3..BLACK SABBATH - PARANOID 4..DEEP PURPLE - SMOKE ON THE WATER 5..LED ZEPPELIN - WHOLE LOTTA LOVE 6..BLONDIE - HEART OF GLASS. 7..JIMI HENDRIX - HEY JOE 8..THE THE - THIS IS THE DAY 9..THE WEDDING PRESENT - THIS IS MY FAVOURITE DRESS 10..THE JAM - TUBE STATION AT MIDNIGHT 11..BUZZCOCKS - EVER FALLEN IN LOVE 12..X-RAY SPEX - GERMFREE ADOLESCENTS 13..ROLLING STONES - SATISFACTION 14..JOY DIVISION - TRANSMISSION 15..QUEEN - WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS 16..THE WHO - PINBALL WIZZARD 17.. THE KINKS - AUTUMN ALMANAC 18..MOTORHEAD - ACE OF SPADES 19..ELVIS PRESLEY - IF I CAN DREAM 20..BEATLES - HELP
Biscuits. We just bought treacle sponge hobnobs. Why not? Still Christmas.
Panic? I don’t think there should be panic. Omicron had taken over and it’s not as vicious. Everything so far looks quite sedate on hospitals and deaths in this wave. Vaccines are working.
I don’t think there should be any panic.
It feels like it’s coming to an end. Years or bizarreness, but it will soon get forgotten.
The NHS backlog probably greater concern than covid now. 😕
I think there should be a proper PB Panic.
To be held in the church hall. With those folding chairs and tables that try and remove your fingers. With badly photocopied agendas, Naff music on the ancient sound system. Tea brewing up in the big boiler. A play pen for all the @SeanTs to run round in screaming about the end of the world.....
At the end of the evening the caretaker runs the floor polishing machine to remove the scuff marks from peoples shoes......
NHS England have reported 365 new Covid hospital deaths over the period 25-30th Dec.. These I think will be added to today's 4pm http://gov.uk number so I expect lots of noise on here about the high death number.
Fill that "hole" to match the existing slope etc.....
What kind of background music should we play at the panic, this evening? @MoonRabbit ?
I am thinking that the biscuits should be simple Hobnob for a change.
Seriously! When i am in a nite spot on Friday will they play Radiohead? We are not there to gaze at shoes! Admittedly I do spend a lot of time looking at people’s shoes, so maybe I am.
Honestly! Proper music has a beat. You can sing along. And enjoy yourself.
This
1..RAINBOW - ALL NIGHT LONG 2..UNDERTONES - TEENAGE KICKS 3..BLACK SABBATH - PARANOID 4..DEEP PURPLE - SMOKE ON THE WATER 5..LED ZEPPELIN - WHOLE LOTTA LOVE 6..BLONDIE - HEART OF GLASS. 7..JIMI HENDRIX - HEY JOE 8..THE THE - THIS IS THE DAY 9..THE WEDDING PRESENT - THIS IS MY FAVOURITE DRESS 10..THE JAM - TUBE STATION AT MIDNIGHT 11..BUZZCOCKS - EVER FALLEN IN LOVE 12..X-RAY SPEX - GERMFREE ADOLESCENTS 13..ROLLING STONES - SATISFACTION 14..JOY DIVISION - TRANSMISSION 15..QUEEN - WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS 16..THE WHO - PINBALL WIZZARD 17.. THE KINKS - AUTUMN ALMANAC 18..MOTORHEAD - ACE OF SPADES 19..ELVIS PRESLEY - IF I CAN DREAM 20..BEATLES - HELP
Biscuits. We just bought treacle sponge hobnobs. Why not? Still Christmas.
Panic? I don’t think there should be panic. Omicron had taken over and it’s not as vicious. Everything so far looks quite sedate on hospitals and deaths in this wave. Vaccines are working.
I don’t think there should be any panic.
It feels like it’s coming to an end. Years or bizarreness, but it will soon get forgotten.
The NHS backlog probably greater concern than covid now. 😕
I think there should be a proper PB Panic.
To be held in the church hall. With those folding chairs and tables that try and remove your fingers. With badly photocopied agendas, Naff music on the ancient sound system. Tea brewing up in the big boiler. A play pen for all the @SeanTs to run round in screaming about the end of the world.....
At the end of the evening the caretaker runs the floor polishing machine to remove the scuff marks from peoples shoes......
A cosy, British panic.
Do we get tea and cakes?
If not, I'm not going.
Home made cakes? Now we're talking. Who's making them?
You probably wouldn't want it to be me, TBF. I have actually burned a salad.
An operation to remove the masts from a sunken cargo ship in the River Thames, containing 1,400 tonnes of unstable explosives onboard, will involve Royal Navy specialists.
It is believed that if the unexploded ordnance on the SS Richard Montgomery were triggered it could lead to the nearby oil and gas facilities in Sheerness being damaged, the Daily Telegraph reports.
What could possibly go wrong?
The list of ordnance is quite impressive:
This comprises the following items of ordnance:
286 × 2,000 lb (910 kg) high explosive bombs 4,439 × 1,000 lb (450 kg) bombs of various types 1,925 × 500 lb (230 kg) bombs 2,815 fragmentation bombs and bomb clusters Various explosive booster charges Various smoke bombs, including white phosphorus bombs Various pyrotechnic signals
The Tallboy that went off recently in Poland is 5000 kg.
Alongside thrillers, romantic comedies and dramas, Netflix in Russia will now let viewers tune into Kremlin propaganda after the country’s media watchdog ordered it to provide streaming of state television channels.
Roskomnadzor said Netflix would have to include 20 state TV channels among its list of films and series, including the Russian Orthodox Church’s channel Spas, which translates as “Saved”.
It will also be obliged to stream Russia 1, which broadcasts Moscow. Kremlin. Putin — a weekly TV show devoted to the president’s activities. TV Dozhd, an online opposition channel, has accused the programme of Soviet-style propaganda.
Netflix was added to Roskomnadzor’s list of “audio-visual services” this week. The register, created last year, requires streaming services with more than 100,000 daily users to also host major Russian TV channels.
Comments
A niece, needle-phobic but nevertheless vaccinated, raised this concern from social media. I suspect because it helps her justify not having a booster if 'the case numbers are inflated'.
It should still all be datestamped.
9. A 'cost of living crisis' kicks in as prices of goods and services accelerate ahead of take-home pay (and this is homed in on effectively by the opposition parties). (It's the economy, stupid).
Reconstructing "reporting day" would be impossible, except if you wrote a fairly simple script to guess at it and fake the reporting day. Which would be garbage, basically.
EDIT: so this graph will be "filled in"
And the SeanT's underwear will explode, all the same moment. Sigh.....
'Informed' opinion, in the pubs and clubs of SE Essex suggests that the consequence of removal will vary between the swamping of Canvey Island and the loss of a few windows along Southend sea front!
But I think he is definitely on the naughty step with Prince Andrew.
They are recently practiced in getting someone sectioned, however - Windsor Castle 'Assassin' from last week.
@ShaunLintern
I'm told Covid patient numbers in hospital in England will jump by another 1,000 when the data is updated later, off the back of a 1,000 rise yday. This will mean roughly 11,300 Covid patients in hospital - numbers last seen at the end of February.
For the music - Felt Kuti? Susana Baca?
https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/vat-food/vfood6260
Yebbut Robert Carlyle is PM rather than Boris Johnson, so it's not all doom and gloom in the series.
Jo Cox was murdered by a far-right extremist.
David Amess was murdered by an Islamist.
Both are different to any random murder in that they are assaults on the democratic system.
https://blogs.city.ac.uk/cityshortcourses/2020/10/13/what-really-caused-the-excel-error-in-nhs-test-and-trace-covid-19-system-an-in-depth-technical-analysis/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtuInl8V70M
Honestly! Proper music has a beat. You can sing along. And enjoy yourself.
This
1..RAINBOW - ALL NIGHT LONG
2..UNDERTONES - TEENAGE KICKS
3..BLACK SABBATH - PARANOID
4..DEEP PURPLE - SMOKE ON THE WATER
5..LED ZEPPELIN - WHOLE LOTTA LOVE
6..BLONDIE - HEART OF GLASS.
7..JIMI HENDRIX - HEY JOE
8..THE THE - THIS IS THE DAY
9..THE WEDDING PRESENT - THIS IS MY FAVOURITE DRESS
10..THE JAM - TUBE STATION AT MIDNIGHT
11..BUZZCOCKS - EVER FALLEN IN LOVE
12..X-RAY SPEX - GERMFREE ADOLESCENTS
13..ROLLING STONES - SATISFACTION
14..JOY DIVISION - TRANSMISSION
15..QUEEN - WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS
16..THE WHO - PINBALL WIZZARD
17.. THE KINKS - AUTUMN ALMANAC
18..MOTORHEAD - ACE OF SPADES
19..ELVIS PRESLEY - IF I CAN DREAM
20..BEATLES - HELP
Biscuits. We just bought treacle sponge hobnobs. Why not? Still Christmas.
The data we see on the dashboard is the tip of the ice berg. Behind it is data down to the individual person level.
Murdering a politician because you hate and want to overthrow the political system he represents is not political.
Hmmm.
There will still be the same elections there would have been, even with some candidates not standing as a mark of respect - the last GE and the next GE.
I get their views and actions are unpopular and they are protesting in a way which may well have been illegal. But sectioning them. Why ? Anyway what good would it do. It would only feed into their conspiracy theories.
I don’t think there should be any panic.
It feels like it’s coming to an end. Years or bizarreness, but it will soon get forgotten.
The NHS backlog probably greater concern than covid now. 😕
At that point things start to look very different.
Royal Air Force
RC135W Rivet Joint
ZZ665 RRR7217
https://twitter.com/CivMilAir/status/1476592532037459972?s=20
Dura Ace mentioned neutral milk, that’s amiss on my list. Let’s stuff the panic and do Ghost.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aKlRWo2u1Y
The media are going to lose their collective poo.
Being critical of the Government is what being in opposition is about - it's interesting that on here Labour are often pilloried when they support the Government as much as they are pilloried when opposing it.
As to "having nothing to say about anything", we are more than two years from a GE. Why should either Labour or the LDs give a detailed exposition of their policies now - yes, they will need to when the time comes and their policy programmes can be rightly scrutinised as will the Govenrment's record and its performance on enacting the 2019 Manifesto on which it was, after all, elected.
My final thought is if you don't like "witless criticism" of your precious Conservative Government, why don't you unsubscribe from the email list?
https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1476597265041133569?s=20
Alongside thrillers, romantic comedies and dramas, Netflix in Russia will now let viewers tune into Kremlin propaganda after the country’s media watchdog ordered it to provide streaming of state television channels.
Roskomnadzor said Netflix would have to include 20 state TV channels among its list of films and series, including the Russian Orthodox Church’s channel Spas, which translates as “Saved”.
It will also be obliged to stream Russia 1, which broadcasts Moscow. Kremlin. Putin — a weekly TV show devoted to the president’s activities. TV Dozhd, an online opposition channel, has accused the programme of Soviet-style propaganda.
Netflix was added to Roskomnadzor’s list of “audio-visual services” this week. The register, created last year, requires streaming services with more than 100,000 daily users to also host major Russian TV channels.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-netflix-ordered-to-stream-state-tv-channels-klsgqmq5j
James Max: "What did I get wrong?"
Journalist Debbie Hayton: "There are two sexes. Male and female. What you got wrong was forgetting that and concentrating on gender identity."
@thejamesmax
|
@DebbieHayton
https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1476487354189856769?s=20
To be held in the church hall. With those folding chairs and tables that try and remove your fingers. With badly photocopied agendas, Naff music on the ancient sound system. Tea brewing up in the big boiler. A play pen for all the @SeanTs to run round in screaming about the end of the world.....
At the end of the evening the caretaker runs the floor polishing machine to remove the scuff marks from peoples shoes......
A cosy, British panic.
If not, I'm not going.
But it is worth noting that this will probably only result in a fairly small list of LibDem gains. Let's assume the following:
(1) The Conservative vote in a seat falls by 10%
(2) If the Labour Party is more than 10 points behind the LibDems, then half the Labour vote goes to the LDs.
The second assumption is to deal with seats that are three-way marginals. And, of course, this analysis does not deal with the boundary changes which will make encouraging tactical voting harder for the LDs.
Together, these look like a fairly sensible set of assumptions for the LDs. You can be more aggressive if you like, and maybe assume the LD vote share rises to 14 or 15% nationally. But let's take mine as a starting point. What do they mean?
Well, they mean the LDs gain 6 to 12 English seats. I have a range, because quite a few of these would actually be quite difficult asks.
Here they are:
Wimbledon: but that requires that the LDs become the principle challenger. That's no sure thing. (35% chance of LD gain)
Carshalton & Wallington: well... I suspect the LDs will be starting all over with a new candidate. I suspect the LDs fall back here. (25% chance)
Cheltenham: LD gain (80% chance)
Winchester: LD gain (80% chance)
Cheadle: LD gain (70% chance)
Cambridgeshire South: LD gain (70% chance)
Esher & Walton: LD gain (75% chance)
Lewes: suddenly, we're getting into territory where there's not a lot of Labour vote to squeeze. On my assumptions, the LDs gain Lewes, but it's starting to get a bit tight. Shall we say 65% chance?
Eastbourne: Labour + LibDem does not beat the Conservatives here, so you're relying on the that 10% drop in the Conservative vote. 40% chance.
St Ives: as above... only will Andrew George stand again? If he does, then I'd make it a 50:50 shot. If he does not, then only a 10% one.
Hazel Grove: it's pretty close on my assumptions. Say a 60% chance.
Hitchin and Harpenden: this looks a lot like St Albans and there's a bit Labour vote to squeeze. Still, can't be more than a 50:50 shot under my assumptions
South West Surrey: my assumptions don't get you particularly close...
Nor for Wells...
So, that's six seats (on old boundaries) that I would reckon as likely LD gains, and another half dozen they stand a decent chance in.
I mean, it's progress for the LDs. But against that, they're very likely to lose the new Highlands seat, and Fife could be dicey too.
This comprises the following items of ordnance:
286 × 2,000 lb (910 kg) high explosive bombs
4,439 × 1,000 lb (450 kg) bombs of various types
1,925 × 500 lb (230 kg) bombs
2,815 fragmentation bombs and bomb clusters
Various explosive booster charges
Various smoke bombs, including white phosphorus bombs
Various pyrotechnic signals
The Tallboy that went off recently in Poland is 5000 kg.
Have I got her all wrong after all?
Whether the LibDems were right or not to say that wouldn't stand in Southend is one thing. Arguable either way, I'd say.
However, having said publicly that they would not stand, to then go back on their word is quite another thing.
The perils of the latter should be obvious even to the most foolish LibDem ...