I am also not ashamed to say I got it wrong voting for Corbyn. At least I didn't run away when I got my predictions spectacularly wrong or pretend I never supported somebody. I have done my best to learn and educate myself - and I would support anyone in the same position rather than attack them. I happen to think that's a sign of strength not weakness.
I see the "waverers" are back on the Boris bandwagon again, it's honestly hilarious to read their "I really am quitting this week" posts.
@HYUFD was right, I'd be a millionaire by now if I had a Pound for every time they said they were leaving.
To be fair on them, "waverers" are likely to, well, waver.
The hope is they waver in the right direction come the election. That's more likely now, as once you start wavering it's hard to stop.
They'll waver and then go back to voting Tory, it's not really wavering.
In 2005, I could not vote Labour because of Iraq, so I voted Lib Dem. In 2010 I voted Tory because it was time for a change of Government and Labour needed time to get itself together.
I am happy to reserve the right to do either again if and when Labour is elected. That's actually having principles.
I'd agree with you if it were Corbyn, or even Burnham.
Starmer as the asset of being dull and inoffensive, so basically anyone could vote for him.
Actually, the current shower are so woeful that, for a few days, I did consider voting for Corbyn. In the end I decided that none of them were good enough and, for the first time ever, I did not bother voting.
To me this seems the most principled stance of the GE19 election - of which you should have a great deal of respect.
I conclude Corbyn and Johnson are just as bad as each other, I really regret voting for Corbyn twice
Do I get credit for having said that at the time? And, indeed, taken the @Beibheirli_C option although rather more energetically by tearing up my ballot paper and posting it back into the slot?
I see the "waverers" are back on the Boris bandwagon again, it's honestly hilarious to read their "I really am quitting this week" posts.
@HYUFD was right, I'd be a millionaire by now if I had a Pound for every time they said they were leaving.
To be fair on them, "waverers" are likely to, well, waver.
The hope is they waver in the right direction come the election. That's more likely now, as once you start wavering it's hard to stop.
They'll waver and then go back to voting Tory, it's not really wavering.
In 2005, I could not vote Labour because of Iraq, so I voted Lib Dem. In 2010 I voted Tory because it was time for a change of Government and Labour needed time to get itself together.
I am happy to reserve the right to do either again if and when Labour is elected. That's actually having principles.
I'd agree with you if it were Corbyn, or even Burnham.
Starmer as the asset of being dull and inoffensive, so basically anyone could vote for him.
Actually, the current shower are so woeful that, for a few days, I did consider voting for Corbyn. In the end I decided that none of them were good enough and, for the first time ever, I did not bother voting.
To me this seems the most principled stance of the GE19 election - of which you should have a great deal of respect.
I conclude Corbyn and Johnson are just as bad as each other, I really regret voting for Corbyn twice
Do I get credit for having said that at the time? And, indeed, taken the @Beibheirli_C option although rather more energetically by tearing up my ballot paper and posting it back into the slot?
Yes you do - and I am sorry I did not listen to you.
I really don't understand why some people - despite having zero clinical experience of looking after Covid patients - insist that Omicron is not causing more mild disease in the vaccinated than previous variants. You can't judge severity just by looking at numbers/graphs - 1/5
I see the "waverers" are back on the Boris bandwagon again, it's honestly hilarious to read their "I really am quitting this week" posts.
@HYUFD was right, I'd be a millionaire by now if I had a Pound for every time they said they were leaving.
To be fair on them, "waverers" are likely to, well, waver.
The hope is they waver in the right direction come the election. That's more likely now, as once you start wavering it's hard to stop.
They'll waver and then go back to voting Tory, it's not really wavering.
In 2005, I could not vote Labour because of Iraq, so I voted Lib Dem. In 2010 I voted Tory because it was time for a change of Government and Labour needed time to get itself together.
I am happy to reserve the right to do either again if and when Labour is elected. That's actually having principles.
And in 2019 I couldn't vote Conservatives because of Theresa May so I cast a protest vote myself too.
Right now the Conservatives are doing badly, but are better than all the alternatives in my eyes, for reasons I've made clear. If we get a decent Opposition then I could consider voting for them. The most likely alternative party for my vote being the Lib Dems if they could actually become liberal.
Then you'll understand why I am not a "partisan hack" as you keep claiming.
I am happy to go over what would stop me voting Labour if you would like to hear. I would also be quite happy to vote Lib Dem depending on constituency.
I can't vote Tory at the moment because it's an endorsement of populism and the party of Johnsonism which is something I despise almost as much as I now despise Corbynism
At the moment I'm disappointed with Boris because he seems burnt out and is turning against the things he's said and done in the past. If we had more "Johnsonism" that would be an improvement for me and could get me back on board, its the absence of that and the pure chaos and bullshit of recent weeks instead that is the problem.
You may despise "Johnsonism" but I don't I actually like what I consider it to be. And I think "populism" is simply democracy.
Iain Duncan Smith was very conciliatory to the PM on the radio this morning. Whatever you think of Johnson, it didn't sound like the rebels were about to storm the walls.
"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"
A couple of weeks ago it seemed like storming the walls would be necessary to change course.
Now it looks like the course has been changed and the 99 Rebel Loons have won their victory, why keep on fighting?
"He's an idiot but he's our idiot" The frothers have looked at the likely alternatives and decided that actually, no, they're too sane.
He is being disingenuous by cherry picking and not doing a simple look up to current situation.
897,216 is current capacity.
And of course UK strategy has changed to much wider use of LFT from 11 months ago. Hardly any other country tests at the level the UK does, but there will always be some sort of ceiling.
And also a law of diminishing returns. I think we may well conclude when this was finally over that our over zealous testing was second only to T&T in the waste of public money and the diversion of resources that might have been more usefully spent.
LFT has rather become a bit of a national pastime and you see on social media people are taking the piss by taking many per day. That's the downside when you make something free and easily available.
I think this is why they are doing the staggered released of PCR tests now.
Conversely, I and members of my family have taken a lot of LFTs, (when going into work, seeing the MIL etc) and never registered any of them. I really don't see the point of a negative test being recorded.
Off-topic, its already increasingly clear how difficult it is going to be to get "groupage" loads across the GB / EU border from Saturday. The GB new customs computer isn't ready so have to rely on the old system which they said from the start was utterly incapable of such a thing. We haven't built the Border Control Posts, or staffed them, and the few we have built in Kent are utterly inadequate.
We have to start to impose these rules because there are a stack of countries ready to take us to the WTO for giving illegal preferential terms to the EU. But we aren't ready, and hauliers sensibly are saying "fuck that" at the prospect of having their vehicle stuck in Ashford over a weekend because one line on one page of one item of the thousands on their groupage load is wrong.
I've already been told that the pallet load chilled imports we have been doing happily so far (as the GB authorities aren't checking) are now likely impossible. We need to be doing full loads which we can't as the business hasn't grown sufficiently and now won't do if we can't import.
I expect we will get through this by simply dropping the 1st Jan / 1st April / 1st July implementation. Which isn't a long-term fix. Our border model doesn't work as drawn up...
That I think is already in place. I have pasted some of the weasel-words.
The irony is that this unfit-for-purpose set of processes will continue until the UK govt introduces enough of it to gum up the EU side of the border. Idiots.
Revised timetable will give businesses more time to adjust to new processes Global pandemic has affected supply chains in the UK and across Europe Controls will be phased in across 2022 The government has today set out a pragmatic new timetable for introducing full import controls for goods being imported from the EU to the UK.
Businesses have faced a range of challenges over recent months as they recover from the global pandemic which has impacted supply chains across Europe. This is being felt particularly by the agri-food sector, where new requirements on importing products of animal origin were due to be introduced from next month. Rather than introduce these controls at this time, the government has listened to those who have called for a new approach to give businesses more time to adjust.
Sure - they phased it. And yet we're not remotely ready for even the first phase. For lunatics obsessed with the border you'd think they'd spend the money to actually make it function.
Yes, it's not as if they didn't know it was coming!
Brexiteers are completely useless with the practical stuff. So we wind up with "taking control" by having no checks on imports, just imposing problems and costs for our exports.
Curious thread. Tories still trying to conjure up some party political advantage out of Omicron. Smells a little desperate, but perhaps understandable after the last few weeks. If they were wise they would shut up, try to govern and hope people forget that they party while others lock down.
Everything about this is politics. You could argue the welsh and Scottish governments are doing exactly the same with their approach to Omicron.
Be interesting to see why England fared worse than both Scotland and Wales , if they ever bother to really look at it in future which I seriously doubt.
The reason is obvious. But problematic in polite conversation.
I don't know where you get all this "truth is muzzled in the corner" stuff.
It isn't. You can say what the reason is. You can say it here. You can say it anywhere.
Honestly calling Keir Starmer Captain Hindsight makes you look incredibly partisan and undermines any point you're making, it's as useless and pathetic as calling Remainers Remoaners or calling Brexit Brexshit
Probably about as useful as calling covid the "Johnson variant", but supporters lap it up because it tickles them.
Honestly calling Keir Starmer Captain Hindsight makes you look incredibly partisan and undermines any point you're making, it's as useless and pathetic as calling Remainers Remoaners or calling Brexit Brexshit
Probably about as useful as calling covid the "Johnson variant", but supporters lap it up because it tickles them.
He is being disingenuous by cherry picking and not doing a simple look up to current situation.
897,216 is current capacity.
And of course UK strategy has changed to much wider use of LFT from 11 months ago. Hardly any other country tests at the level the UK does, but there will always be some sort of ceiling.
And also a law of diminishing returns. I think we may well conclude when this was finally over that our over zealous testing was second only to T&T in the waste of public money and the diversion of resources that might have been more usefully spent.
LFT has rather become a bit of a national pastime and you see on social media people are taking the piss by taking many per day. That's the downside when you make something free and easily available.
I think this is why they are doing the staggered released of PCR tests now.
Conversely, I and members of my family have taken a lot of LFTs, (when going into work, seeing the MIL etc) and never registered any of them. I really don't see the point of a negative test being recorded.
That's part of what i mean. Its clear a lot more LFT are being taken than recorded, i am sure eye watering amounts of LFTs are being used up, but some in the media are making clearly false comparisons.
I see the "waverers" are back on the Boris bandwagon again, it's honestly hilarious to read their "I really am quitting this week" posts.
@HYUFD was right, I'd be a millionaire by now if I had a Pound for every time they said they were leaving.
To be fair on them, "waverers" are likely to, well, waver.
The hope is they waver in the right direction come the election. That's more likely now, as once you start wavering it's hard to stop.
They'll waver and then go back to voting Tory, it's not really wavering.
In 2005, I could not vote Labour because of Iraq, so I voted Lib Dem. In 2010 I voted Tory because it was time for a change of Government and Labour needed time to get itself together.
I am happy to reserve the right to do either again if and when Labour is elected. That's actually having principles.
I'd agree with you if it were Corbyn, or even Burnham.
Starmer as the asset of being dull and inoffensive, so basically anyone could vote for him.
Actually, the current shower are so woeful that, for a few days, I did consider voting for Corbyn. In the end I decided that none of them were good enough and, for the first time ever, I did not bother voting.
To me this seems the most principled stance of the GE19 election - of which you should have a great deal of respect.
I conclude Corbyn and Johnson are just as bad as each other, I really regret voting for Corbyn twice
Do I get credit for having said that at the time? And, indeed, taken the @Beibheirli_C option although rather more energetically by tearing up my ballot paper and posting it back into the slot?
You, like everybody else, had more options than to just vote for either Boris or Corbyn. I'm proud to have voted against both of them.
Bartholomew will find it helpful as it leans towards his view, though he may want to note AM's point about why the public is slow to move in that direction. I'm gradually shifting myself towards accepting Omicron as something to live with, for the reasons AM sets out.
It's a very nice piece although for me this issue was settled long ago. It's been clear for ages that LIVE WITH IT is the endgame on Covid and is where we are heading. We aren't there quite yet but I expect we will be soon. I'll be surprised if it remains a big story in the UK beyond February.
That sort of post has a hint of "We've done it! We survived the Great War 1914-1917" about it. There's a lot of alphabet after omicron.
We'd done it before Omicron. We'd done it by about April or June this year, it's just taken some time for people to realise it.
Once the vaccines were rolled out, it isn't the virus mutating that is the big change, it's having vaccines that is.
We aren't in the trenches anymore. The vaccine rollout was Hiroshima and the booster is Nagasaki.
Honestly calling Keir Starmer Captain Hindsight makes you look incredibly partisan and undermines any point you're making, it's as useless and pathetic as calling Remainers Remoaners or calling Brexit Brexshit
Probably about as useful as calling covid the "Johnson variant", but supporters lap it up because it tickles them.
I never did that and I said it was pathetic
I didn't accuse you of saying that. I am just highlighting the similarities between the two.
Honestly calling Keir Starmer Captain Hindsight makes you look incredibly partisan and undermines any point you're making, it's as useless and pathetic as calling Remainers Remoaners or calling Brexit Brexshit
Probably about as useful as calling covid the "Johnson variant", but supporters lap it up because it tickles them.
I never did that and I said it was pathetic
I didn't accuse you of saying that. I am just highlighting the similarities between the two.
The reality is that Johnson is in power because we put up Corbyn against him, something which I think about a lot and wish I'd listened to more people on my own side before I voted for him. I will have to live with that
Honestly calling Keir Starmer Captain Hindsight makes you look incredibly partisan and undermines any point you're making, it's as useless and pathetic as calling Remainers Remoaners or calling Brexit Brexshit
Probably about as useful as calling covid the "Johnson variant", but supporters lap it up because it tickles them.
I never did that and I said it was pathetic
I didn't accuse you of saying that. I am just highlighting the similarities between the two.
If Starmer took us into a pointless war I'd quit the Labour Party.
If Starmer ran out of ideas I'd probably vote Lib Dem.
The Tories can consider my vote when they go back to being the party of Ken Clarke and Rory Stewart
If he ran out of ideas? Wouldn't he have to have any to begin with to runout?
Captain Hindsight hasn't had an original idea this entire pandemic, except for a circuit break which failed in Wales and he swiftly distanced himself from.
What ideas does Johnson have? Isn't that the reason the Red Wall are currently running away?
I happen to think bringing the railways back into public ownership, cutting VAT on energy bills, investing in renewable energy, re-introducing SureStart and bringing the country back with competent leadership is probably a good thing.
But you seem to enjoy chaotic populism so his platform probably isn't for you
Johnson has reneged on levelling up. Red Wall voters, as @RochdalePioneers says, are not fools.
Off-topic, its already increasingly clear how difficult it is going to be to get "groupage" loads across the GB / EU border from Saturday. The GB new customs computer isn't ready so have to rely on the old system which they said from the start was utterly incapable of such a thing. We haven't built the Border Control Posts, or staffed them, and the few we have built in Kent are utterly inadequate.
We have to start to impose these rules because there are a stack of countries ready to take us to the WTO for giving illegal preferential terms to the EU. But we aren't ready, and hauliers sensibly are saying "fuck that" at the prospect of having their vehicle stuck in Ashford over a weekend because one line on one page of one item of the thousands on their groupage load is wrong.
I've already been told that the pallet load chilled imports we have been doing happily so far (as the GB authorities aren't checking) are now likely impossible. We need to be doing full loads which we can't as the business hasn't grown sufficiently and now won't do if we can't import.
I expect we will get through this by simply dropping the 1st Jan / 1st April / 1st July implementation. Which isn't a long-term fix. Our border model doesn't work as drawn up...
That I think is already in place. I have pasted some of the weasel-words.
The irony is that this unfit-for-purpose set of processes will continue until the UK govt introduces enough of it to gum up the EU side of the border. Idiots.
Revised timetable will give businesses more time to adjust to new processes Global pandemic has affected supply chains in the UK and across Europe Controls will be phased in across 2022 The government has today set out a pragmatic new timetable for introducing full import controls for goods being imported from the EU to the UK.
Businesses have faced a range of challenges over recent months as they recover from the global pandemic which has impacted supply chains across Europe. This is being felt particularly by the agri-food sector, where new requirements on importing products of animal origin were due to be introduced from next month. Rather than introduce these controls at this time, the government has listened to those who have called for a new approach to give businesses more time to adjust.
This will be a great case study, for future students of international politics and game theory.
It was sadly predictable that the EU, and the French in particular, would be obstinate arseholes around the border, in the expectation that the UK would not retailiate in any meaningful way.
Hopefully, over time and as the politicians in charge change, everyone will realise that obstinate border arseholery benefits no-one, and that life is much better when everyone just gets their computers talking to each other.
The silver lining in the cloud appears to be the Dutch, who are planning to actively encourage EU>UK freight traffic through Rotterdam in the new year.
The silver lining is the UK government, who have diverted huge gas ships headingto China to come to UK, making talk of big squeeze a thing of the past.
Bartholomew will find it helpful as it leans towards his view, though he may want to note AM's point about why the public is slow to move in that direction. I'm gradually shifting myself towards accepting Omicron as something to live with, for the reasons AM sets out.
It's a very nice piece although for me this issue was settled long ago. It's been clear for ages that LIVE WITH IT is the endgame on Covid and is where we are heading. We aren't there quite yet but I expect we will be soon. I'll be surprised if it remains a big story in the UK beyond February.
That sort of post has a hint of "We've done it! We survived the Great War 1914-1917" about it. There's a lot of alphabet after omicron.
We'd done it before Omicron. We'd done it by about April or June this year, it's just taken some time for people to realise it.
Once the vaccines were rolled out, it isn't the virus mutating that is the big change, it's having vaccines that is.
We aren't in the trenches anymore. The vaccine rollout was Hiroshima and the booster is Nagasaki.
I still question whether ventilators are the right thing to be tracking if Omicron does not impact the lungs in the same way.
As for admissions, referring to incidental admissions as the get out clause feels awfully similar to what was said around Delta and also those that said we’d reached herd immunity in summer 2020.
How will Omicron cause death without impacting the lungs? That’s effectively what you are tracking.
Foxy pointed out last night that other serious symptoms can occur independently of lung issues.
I believe there can be other proximate causes of death (@Foxy ‘s point) - my father ultimately died of renal failure / multiple organ failure - but the data I’ve seen suggest these are coincident with rather than independent of respiratory issues.
But surely they are expected to correlate quite well, as covid causes all those problems?
They do
The point was (IMV) ventilation is a worthwhile stat to track as most (if not all) COVID deaths involve ventilation regardless of the proximate cause of death
This works if non-lung deaths correlate with lung-deaths. The question for Omi is whether this relationship still exists given what we know about it so far (upper respiratory).
The kidneys, liver and gut are not upper respiratory either…
The point is if the virus is embedded enough to cause fatal issues in these organs it will also have got to the lungs.
If Omni kills without impacting the lungs (and there is no evidence it does) then we are in a similar position to one of the actresses on niche websites that @TheScreamingEagles watches
Fake news, I never watch those movies, I've only heard the phrase uttered by other people.
Every f##king day the media do this now and they know the deal. They are being deliberately disingenuous.
My journalist friend who got dumped with COVID reporting gets push back from her editor, when she points out that stories using comparison of cases found by testing internationally are bullshit.
Honestly calling Keir Starmer Captain Hindsight makes you look incredibly partisan and undermines any point you're making, it's as useless and pathetic as calling Remainers Remoaners or calling Brexit Brexshit
Other examples might include use of the term 'Boris fanboi' for anyone who takes any position other than constant criticism of Boris, for example...
Honestly calling Keir Starmer Captain Hindsight makes you look incredibly partisan and undermines any point you're making, it's as useless and pathetic as calling Remainers Remoaners or calling Brexit Brexshit
Probably about as useful as calling covid the "Johnson variant", but supporters lap it up because it tickles them.
I never did that and I said it was pathetic
Just like the wallpaper stunt. Starmer was badly advised on both. Mind you compared to the other sides endless gaffes it is nothing.
I do think the Captain hindsight thing has a point as he does have the remarkable ability to show wisdom after the event.
If Starmer took us into a pointless war I'd quit the Labour Party.
If Starmer ran out of ideas I'd probably vote Lib Dem.
The Tories can consider my vote when they go back to being the party of Ken Clarke and Rory Stewart
If he ran out of ideas? Wouldn't he have to have any to begin with to runout?
Captain Hindsight hasn't had an original idea this entire pandemic, except for a circuit break which failed in Wales and he swiftly distanced himself from.
What ideas does Johnson have? Isn't that the reason the Red Wall are currently running away?
I happen to think bringing the railways back into public ownership, cutting VAT on energy bills, investing in renewable energy, re-introducing SureStart and bringing the country back with competent leadership is probably a good thing.
But you seem to enjoy chaotic populism so his platform probably isn't for you
Johnson has reneged on levelling up. Red Wall voters, as @RochdalePioneers says, are not fools.
I think you'll know I have said that here many times, they are not stupid whatsoever.
But my point is that levelling up has failed because it is an empty slogan with no actual ideas behind it.
He is being disingenuous by cherry picking and not doing a simple look up to current situation.
897,216 is current capacity.
And of course UK strategy has changed to much wider use of LFT from 11 months ago. Hardly any other country tests at the level the UK does, but there will always be some sort of ceiling.
And also a law of diminishing returns. I think we may well conclude when this was finally over that our over zealous testing was second only to T&T in the waste of public money and the diversion of resources that might have been more usefully spent.
LFT has rather become a bit of a national pastime and you see on social media people are taking the piss by taking many per day. That's the downside when you make something free and easily available.
I think this is why they are doing the staggered released of PCR tests now.
Conversely, I and members of my family have taken a lot of LFTs, (when going into work, seeing the MIL etc) and never registered any of them. I really don't see the point of a negative test being recorded.
They would be useful to those compiling statistics, but at a cost of the time taken by everyone to upload them into the system. In your case, by someone acutely aware of the need to account for their time.
I really don't understand why some people - despite having zero clinical experience of looking after Covid patients - insist that Omicron is not causing more mild disease in the vaccinated than previous variants. You can't judge severity just by looking at numbers/graphs - 1/5
We are in the "noble lie" phase. What was previously a debate about hard choices is now at risk of being resolved against those who have held power for two years, and all their gains are at risk like bans on parkrun, bans on dancing, etc.
Curious thread. Tories still trying to conjure up some party political advantage out of Omicron. Smells a little desperate, but perhaps understandable after the last few weeks. If they were wise they would shut up, try to govern and hope people forget that they party while others lock down.
Everything about this is politics. You could argue the welsh and Scottish governments are doing exactly the same with their approach to Omicron.
Be interesting to see why England fared worse than both Scotland and Wales , if they ever bother to really look at it in future which I seriously doubt.
The reason is obvious. But problematic in polite conversation.
I don't know where you get all this "truth is muzzled in the corner" stuff.
It isn't. You can say what the reason is. You can say it here. You can say it anywhere.
You want us to say it? You want us to just come out and say it?
I see the "waverers" are back on the Boris bandwagon again, it's honestly hilarious to read their "I really am quitting this week" posts.
@HYUFD was right, I'd be a millionaire by now if I had a Pound for every time they said they were leaving.
Normal people instead of partisan hacks do go back and forth depending upon how politics changes.
For partisan hacks like yourself and HYUFD its a lot easier to keep a 100% record.
For me, I'm still unhappy with Boris but since he rejected restrictions I'm a lot happier than I was a week or so ago when it looked like he was going to impose them. Funnily enough, when Boris does what I want then I'm happier, when he doesn't then I'm not. That's how principled people operate as opposed to partisans who change their principles to match whatever their party is doing today.
If you feel the need to see what a partisan hack looks like, check the mirror.
Honestly calling Keir Starmer Captain Hindsight makes you look incredibly partisan and undermines any point you're making, it's as useless and pathetic as calling Remainers Remoaners or calling Brexit Brexshit
Other examples might include use of the term 'Boris fanboi' for anyone who takes any position other than constant criticism of Boris, for example...
It is clear who it was aimed at, it wasn't aimed at you
Honestly calling Keir Starmer Captain Hindsight makes you look incredibly partisan and undermines any point you're making, it's as useless and pathetic as calling Remainers Remoaners or calling Brexit Brexshit
Probably about as useful as calling covid the "Johnson variant", but supporters lap it up because it tickles them.
I never did that and I said it was pathetic
I didn't accuse you of saying that. I am just highlighting the similarities between the two.
Political discourse is in the gutter
Yep, and you see that on here a lot, too.
Given that no 5 in the singles charts is "Boris Johnson is Still a F---ing C--t" by the K--ts, I'd have thought this was an oasis of sanity and good taste.
The reality is that Johnson is in power because we put up Corbyn against him, something which I think about a lot and wish I'd listened to more people on my own side before I voted for him. I will have to live with that
Sadly so do we, but won't hold it against you.
A lot of people here seem to, they bring it up constantly.
Can I ask a silly question - why do the 2 options in the chart not add up to 100%? It seems to be a 2 option Yes/No question, so according to me it should do that.
Implied chance from betting odds always adds up to >100%. That's the margin the bookies make the profit from.
Cheers. I had nor considered that applying here.
So a lowish, but not very low, overround.
I think 8% is pretty standard. Certainly you can easily find 15% in markets with many runners. Basically, the harder it is to see how badly they're screwing you, the worse you can expect it to be. Pretty easy to spot bad value in a two horse race, though, so 8% is expected.
I don’t think that’s right though - the field is bigger so the profit is greater for the bookie but the individual is paying less
Assuming punters bet in equal numbers on each horse
With 2 horses, there is one loser so with 80 punters there are 40 to pay the bookies margin
With 8 horses there are 7 losers, so with 80 punters there are 70 to pay the bookies margin.
If the overround is 15% on the larger race the individual losing punter is paying 1/70*0.15 = 0.002 vs 1/40*.08 = 0.002
Bartholomew will find it helpful as it leans towards his view, though he may want to note AM's point about why the public is slow to move in that direction. I'm gradually shifting myself towards accepting Omicron as something to live with, for the reasons AM sets out.
It's a very nice piece although for me this issue was settled long ago. It's been clear for ages that LIVE WITH IT is the endgame on Covid and is where we are heading. We aren't there quite yet but I expect we will be soon. I'll be surprised if it remains a big story in the UK beyond February.
That sort of post has a hint of "We've done it! We survived the Great War 1914-1917" about it. There's a lot of alphabet after omicron.
I was joking when I posted a few weeks ago that we should've just named the new variant Omega so we'd be out of the woods faster, but sure, we can try it I guess.
If Starmer took us into a pointless war I'd quit the Labour Party.
If Starmer ran out of ideas I'd probably vote Lib Dem.
The Tories can consider my vote when they go back to being the party of Ken Clarke and Rory Stewart
If he ran out of ideas? Wouldn't he have to have any to begin with to runout?
Captain Hindsight hasn't had an original idea this entire pandemic, except for a circuit break which failed in Wales and he swiftly distanced himself from.
What ideas does Johnson have? Isn't that the reason the Red Wall are currently running away?
I happen to think bringing the railways back into public ownership, cutting VAT on energy bills, investing in renewable energy, re-introducing SureStart and bringing the country back with competent leadership is probably a good thing.
But you seem to enjoy chaotic populism so his platform probably isn't for you
Johnson has reneged on levelling up. Red Wall voters, as @RochdalePioneers says, are not fools.
I think you'll know I have said that here many times, they are not stupid whatsoever.
But my point is that levelling up has failed because it is an empty slogan with no actual ideas behind it.
Oh, I wasn’t implying otherwise. Just giving one reason why the red wall is abandoning the Tories. You can see from the likes of HYUFD a thinly disguised disregard for these seats and these people but they are the new Tories. Boris would be wise to re engage. Strategically it makes sense too as it cuts off a path back for labour. I suspect where the red wall is concerned there are far more Tories like HYUFD than there are so want to re engage.
Another darts player out with a positive covid test - Dave Chisnall.
They must be getting anxious about both the integrity of the competition if there are more withdrawals, and of the possibility of e.g. a walkover in the semis or the final rendering the whole thing a massive anti-climax.
I see the "waverers" are back on the Boris bandwagon again, it's honestly hilarious to read their "I really am quitting this week" posts.
@HYUFD was right, I'd be a millionaire by now if I had a Pound for every time they said they were leaving.
To be fair on them, "waverers" are likely to, well, waver.
The hope is they waver in the right direction come the election. That's more likely now, as once you start wavering it's hard to stop.
They'll waver and then go back to voting Tory, it's not really wavering.
In 2005, I could not vote Labour because of Iraq, so I voted Lib Dem. In 2010 I voted Tory because it was time for a change of Government and Labour needed time to get itself together.
I am happy to reserve the right to do either again if and when Labour is elected. That's actually having principles.
I'd agree with you if it were Corbyn, or even Burnham.
Starmer as the asset of being dull and inoffensive, so basically anyone could vote for him.
Actually, the current shower are so woeful that, for a few days, I did consider voting for Corbyn. In the end I decided that none of them were good enough and, for the first time ever, I did not bother voting.
To me this seems the most principled stance of the GE19 election - of which you should have a great deal of respect.
I conclude Corbyn and Johnson are just as bad as each other, I really regret voting for Corbyn twice
Do I get credit for having said that at the time? And, indeed, taken the @Beibheirli_C option although rather more energetically by tearing up my ballot paper and posting it back into the slot?
You, like everybody else, had more options than to just vote for either Boris or Corbyn. I'm proud to have voted against both of them.
Thinking about it Boris v Corbyn in 2019 was the most clearcut right v left choice since 1983's Thatcher v Foot.
Thatcherite Eurosceptics and Socialists liked that clear cut choice even if centrists didn't.
Note too in 1983 the SDP-Liberal Alliance got the highest ever post war 3rd party vote at 25%, while in 2019 the Liberal Democrat voteshare was back up to 11%, its highest level since before the Cameron and Clegg coalition in 2010
Curious thread. Tories still trying to conjure up some party political advantage out of Omicron. Smells a little desperate, but perhaps understandable after the last few weeks. If they were wise they would shut up, try to govern and hope people forget that they party while others lock down.
Everything about this is politics. You could argue the welsh and Scottish governments are doing exactly the same with their approach to Omicron.
Be interesting to see why England fared worse than both Scotland and Wales , if they ever bother to really look at it in future which I seriously doubt.
The reason is obvious. But problematic in polite conversation.
I don't know where you get all this "truth is muzzled in the corner" stuff.
It isn't. You can say what the reason is. You can say it here. You can say it anywhere.
I didn't say it was banned. I said it was problematic. Which is why, when the BBC puts up an article on vaccines refusal (for example), the actual reasons are rather elliptically alluded to.
Honestly calling Keir Starmer Captain Hindsight makes you look incredibly partisan and undermines any point you're making, it's as useless and pathetic as calling Remainers Remoaners or calling Brexit Brexshit
Except it doesn't. Captain Hindsight is the point I'm making. It sums up Starmer perfectly.
Perhaps you could rebut it by regaling me with your Top 5 original ideas Starmer has had that have so wowed you into supporting him? What are the quality original ideas you'd be worried about him running out of?
Because all I've ever seen from Starmer is a blank slate to be projected upon and criticism in hindsight.
Friends of brother in law had a big intergenerational Christmas get together. One member of the family brought Covid to the party. Now they've all got it.
I note the short incubation period.
Meanwhile, I have woken up with a headache. Let's see what this morning's LFT shows...
I hope it is negative! We also did the big (well 11, big for us) family gathering and I spent the last two days feeling RAF. But keep testing negative so not Covid.
Perhaps that other endemic virus known as Hangover?
If only! As I was driver to my frail (frankly that doesn't cover just how buggered they both look now) parents I didn't touch a drop.
If Starmer took us into a pointless war I'd quit the Labour Party.
If Starmer ran out of ideas I'd probably vote Lib Dem.
The Tories can consider my vote when they go back to being the party of Ken Clarke and Rory Stewart
If he ran out of ideas? Wouldn't he have to have any to begin with to runout?
Captain Hindsight hasn't had an original idea this entire pandemic, except for a circuit break which failed in Wales and he swiftly distanced himself from.
What ideas does Johnson have? Isn't that the reason the Red Wall are currently running away?
I happen to think bringing the railways back into public ownership, cutting VAT on energy bills, investing in renewable energy, re-introducing SureStart and bringing the country back with competent leadership is probably a good thing.
But you seem to enjoy chaotic populism so his platform probably isn't for you
Johnson has reneged on levelling up. Red Wall voters, as @RochdalePioneers says, are not fools.
I think you'll know I have said that here many times, they are not stupid whatsoever.
But my point is that levelling up has failed because it is an empty slogan with no actual ideas behind it.
But slogan can still be good for another election or two, as no one else has even noticed they needed it or promised them anything for the last 30 years.
Honestly calling Keir Starmer Captain Hindsight makes you look incredibly partisan and undermines any point you're making, it's as useless and pathetic as calling Remainers Remoaners or calling Brexit Brexshit
Probably about as useful as calling covid the "Johnson variant", but supporters lap it up because it tickles them.
I never did that and I said it was pathetic
I didn't accuse you of saying that. I am just highlighting the similarities between the two.
Political discourse is in the gutter
Because someone called Starmer, "Captain Hindsight"? Get a grip.
Another darts player out with a positive covid test - Dave Chisnall.
They must be getting anxious about both the integrity of the competition if there are more withdrawals, and of the possibility of e.g. a walkover in the semis or the final rendering the whole thing a massive anti-climax.
Bartholomew will find it helpful as it leans towards his view, though he may want to note AM's point about why the public is slow to move in that direction. I'm gradually shifting myself towards accepting Omicron as something to live with, for the reasons AM sets out.
It's a very nice piece although for me this issue was settled long ago. It's been clear for ages that LIVE WITH IT is the endgame on Covid and is where we are heading. We aren't there quite yet but I expect we will be soon. I'll be surprised if it remains a big story in the UK beyond February.
That sort of post has a hint of "We've done it! We survived the Great War 1914-1917" about it. There's a lot of alphabet after omicron.
We'd done it before Omicron. We'd done it by about April or June this year, it's just taken some time for people to realise it.
Once the vaccines were rolled out, it isn't the virus mutating that is the big change, it's having vaccines that is.
We aren't in the trenches anymore. The vaccine rollout was Hiroshima and the booster is Nagasaki.
You can be Hiroo Onoda if it pleases you.
The Nativity Play fallacy at work again.A story is not true just because it is heartwarming. There is no reason at all to discount the possibility of a vaccine resistant and much more lethal strain emeging.
If Starmer took us into a pointless war I'd quit the Labour Party.
If Starmer ran out of ideas I'd probably vote Lib Dem.
The Tories can consider my vote when they go back to being the party of Ken Clarke and Rory Stewart
If he ran out of ideas? Wouldn't he have to have any to begin with to runout?
Captain Hindsight hasn't had an original idea this entire pandemic, except for a circuit break which failed in Wales and he swiftly distanced himself from.
What ideas does Johnson have? Isn't that the reason the Red Wall are currently running away?
I happen to think bringing the railways back into public ownership, cutting VAT on energy bills, investing in renewable energy, re-introducing SureStart and bringing the country back with competent leadership is probably a good thing.
But you seem to enjoy chaotic populism so his platform probably isn't for you
Johnson has reneged on levelling up. Red Wall voters, as @RochdalePioneers says, are not fools.
I think you'll know I have said that here many times, they are not stupid whatsoever.
But my point is that levelling up has failed because it is an empty slogan with no actual ideas behind it.
Oh, I wasn’t implying otherwise. Just giving one reason why the red wall is abandoning the Tories. You can see from the likes of HYUFD a thinly disguised disregard for these seats and these people but they are the new Tories. Boris would be wise to re engage. Strategically it makes sense too as it cuts off a path back for labour. I suspect where the red wall is concerned there are far more Tories like HYUFD than there are so want to re engage.
No worries, I hope you will appreciate that I am trying to sincerely understand what Labour can do for you and is something I have tried to understand since losing so badly in GE19. I do believe though that you have a lot more power than you think, now you've shown your vote is not always in one corner - which can only be good for democracy going forward.
I think in the 2010s your vote was taken for granted, no doubt about that.
I can't remember who posted it but somebody said around the recent by-election the Tories seemed to give up, I can't find any anecdotal support for that idea but it's an interesting one
Honestly calling Keir Starmer Captain Hindsight makes you look incredibly partisan and undermines any point you're making, it's as useless and pathetic as calling Remainers Remoaners or calling Brexit Brexshit
Probably about as useful as calling covid the "Johnson variant", but supporters lap it up because it tickles them.
I never did that and I said it was pathetic
I didn't accuse you of saying that. I am just highlighting the similarities between the two.
Nice heatmap of the situation. Perhaps an idea for our own charter...
If we look at the rate at which case rates are changing, this has shifted from people in their 20s, to people in their 70s and 80s. Which is obviously *bad*, even if the risks to those groups are much lower because Omicron is less severe and vaccines are awesome. https://t.co/y1xjMUhWwh
If Starmer took us into a pointless war I'd quit the Labour Party.
If Starmer ran out of ideas I'd probably vote Lib Dem.
The Tories can consider my vote when they go back to being the party of Ken Clarke and Rory Stewart
If he ran out of ideas? Wouldn't he have to have any to begin with to runout?
Captain Hindsight hasn't had an original idea this entire pandemic, except for a circuit break which failed in Wales and he swiftly distanced himself from.
What ideas does Johnson have? Isn't that the reason the Red Wall are currently running away?
I happen to think bringing the railways back into public ownership, cutting VAT on energy bills, investing in renewable energy, re-introducing SureStart and bringing the country back with competent leadership is probably a good thing.
But you seem to enjoy chaotic populism so his platform probably isn't for you
Johnson has reneged on levelling up. Red Wall voters, as @RochdalePioneers says, are not fools.
I think you'll know I have said that here many times, they are not stupid whatsoever.
But my point is that levelling up has failed because it is an empty slogan with no actual ideas behind it.
I think that was true when the phrase was invented but in placing Gove there, by far the most innovative minister in the government for good or ill, there is a good chance that we will see a plethora of new ideas this year. Whether we can afford them and whether they are good ideas of course remains to be seen.
The reality is that Johnson is in power because we put up Corbyn against him, something which I think about a lot and wish I'd listened to more people on my own side before I voted for him. I will have to live with that
Sadly so do we, but won't hold it against you.
@CorrectHorseBattery my comment was meant in fun, but it might have come over as bitter. If it did apologies. Please take it as it was meant not as appeared.
Can I ask a silly question - why do the 2 options in the chart not add up to 100%? It seems to be a 2 option Yes/No question, so according to me it should do that.
Implied chance from betting odds always adds up to >100%. That's the margin the bookies make the profit from.
Cheers. I had nor considered that applying here.
So a lowish, but not very low, overround.
I think 8% is pretty standard. Certainly you can easily find 15% in markets with many runners. Basically, the harder it is to see how badly they're screwing you, the worse you can expect it to be. Pretty easy to spot bad value in a two horse race, though, so 8% is expected.
I don’t think that’s right though - the field is bigger so the profit is greater for the bookie but the individual is paying less
Assuming punters bet in equal numbers on each horse
With 2 horses, there is one loser so with 80 punters there are 40 to pay the bookies margin
With 8 horses there are 7 losers, so with 80 punters there are 70 to pay the bookies margin.
If the overround is 15% on the larger race the individual losing punter is paying 1/70*0.15 = 0.002 vs 1/40*.08 = 0.002
Excellent point. For a full analysis, you'd need to know whether there is a systemic bias on the longer or shorter odds, or whether it's spread evenly across all prices. My hunch is that favourite prices tend to be fairer and the longer odds are way too short, but I don't have any inside information on that.
The point about Captain Hindsight is that it was invented by the Tories and the people that seem to claim they're not partisan hacks - and call others that instead - seem to use it constantly.
The reality is that Johnson is in power because we put up Corbyn against him, something which I think about a lot and wish I'd listened to more people on my own side before I voted for him. I will have to live with that
Sadly so do we, but won't hold it against you.
@CorrectHorseBattery my comment was meant in fun, but it might have come over as bitter. If it did apologies. Please take it as it was meant not as appeared.
Curious thread. Tories still trying to conjure up some party political advantage out of Omicron. Smells a little desperate, but perhaps understandable after the last few weeks. If they were wise they would shut up, try to govern and hope people forget that they party while others lock down.
Everything about this is politics. You could argue the welsh and Scottish governments are doing exactly the same with their approach to Omicron.
Be interesting to see why England fared worse than both Scotland and Wales , if they ever bother to really look at it in future which I seriously doubt.
The reason is obvious. But problematic in polite conversation.
I don't know where you get all this "truth is muzzled in the corner" stuff.
It isn't. You can say what the reason is. You can say it here. You can say it anywhere.
You want us to say it? You want us to just come out and say it?
Another darts player out with a positive covid test - Dave Chisnall.
They must be getting anxious about both the integrity of the competition if there are more withdrawals, and of the possibility of e.g. a walkover in the semis or the final rendering the whole thing a massive anti-climax.
MVG out yesterday was a huge blow on that front. That's i think the 4 or 5th cae they have had among the players, you have to suspect it might well be well seeded.
Only ever voted for the Conservative candidate once, back around 1960 in a Co. Council election and my father was the candidate. Before and ever since then it's been Labour or Lib/LD until the last Co. Council, when I voted Green. I like to find out something about the candidate though. Don't necessarily feel I'm voting for the Party leader, although Priti Patel once asked if if I was really voting for Corbyn!
If Starmer took us into a pointless war I'd quit the Labour Party.
If Starmer ran out of ideas I'd probably vote Lib Dem.
The Tories can consider my vote when they go back to being the party of Ken Clarke and Rory Stewart
If he ran out of ideas? Wouldn't he have to have any to begin with to runout?
Captain Hindsight hasn't had an original idea this entire pandemic, except for a circuit break which failed in Wales and he swiftly distanced himself from.
What ideas does Johnson have? Isn't that the reason the Red Wall are currently running away?
I happen to think bringing the railways back into public ownership, cutting VAT on energy bills, investing in renewable energy, re-introducing SureStart and bringing the country back with competent leadership is probably a good thing.
But you seem to enjoy chaotic populism so his platform probably isn't for you
Johnson has reneged on levelling up. Red Wall voters, as @RochdalePioneers says, are not fools.
I think you'll know I have said that here many times, they are not stupid whatsoever.
But my point is that levelling up has failed because it is an empty slogan with no actual ideas behind it.
I think that was true when the phrase was invented but in placing Gove there, by far the most innovative minister in the government for good or ill, there is a good chance that we will see a plethora of new ideas this year. Whether we can afford them and whether they are good ideas of course remains to be seen.
My point is that Starmer is accused of having no ideas yet the person who keeps saying that has just voted for somebody else with the same problem. The reality is that they like "Boris" whatever that means. It's about personality not really about policies, which is fine.
I am also not ashamed to say I got it wrong voting for Corbyn. At least I didn't run away when I got my predictions spectacularly wrong or pretend I never supported somebody. I have done my best to learn and educate myself - and I would support anyone in the same position rather than attack them. I happen to think that's a sign of strength not weakness.
Hard to see why voting Tory was any worse than voting Corbyn.
Curious thread. Tories still trying to conjure up some party political advantage out of Omicron. Smells a little desperate, but perhaps understandable after the last few weeks. If they were wise they would shut up, try to govern and hope people forget that they party while others lock down.
Everything about this is politics. You could argue the welsh and Scottish governments are doing exactly the same with their approach to Omicron.
Be interesting to see why England fared worse than both Scotland and Wales , if they ever bother to really look at it in future which I seriously doubt.
The reason is obvious. But problematic in polite conversation.
I don't know where you get all this "truth is muzzled in the corner" stuff.
It isn't. You can say what the reason is. You can say it here. You can say it anywhere.
You want us to say it? You want us to just come out and say it?
Effnissitee innit fam
I was off school when they done Latin. But I’ll feed your post in Google to see what you saying
Only ever voted for the Conservative candidate once, back around 1960 in a Co. Council election and my father was the candidate. Before and ever since then it's been Labour or Lib/LD until the last Co. Council, when I voted Green. I like to find out something about the candidate though. Don't necessarily feel I'm voting for the Party leader, although Priti Patel once asked if if I was really voting for Corbyn!
You're supposed to be a Tory as a wise "old" (I hope you won't think me using this as disparaging) man, that's what they say here
I see the "waverers" are back on the Boris bandwagon again, it's honestly hilarious to read their "I really am quitting this week" posts.
@HYUFD was right, I'd be a millionaire by now if I had a Pound for every time they said they were leaving.
To be fair on them, "waverers" are likely to, well, waver.
The hope is they waver in the right direction come the election. That's more likely now, as once you start wavering it's hard to stop.
They'll waver and then go back to voting Tory, it's not really wavering.
In 2005, I could not vote Labour because of Iraq, so I voted Lib Dem. In 2010 I voted Tory because it was time for a change of Government and Labour needed time to get itself together.
I am happy to reserve the right to do either again if and when Labour is elected. That's actually having principles.
And in 2019 I couldn't vote Conservatives because of Theresa May so I cast a protest vote myself too.
Right now the Conservatives are doing badly, but are better than all the alternatives in my eyes, for reasons I've made clear. If we get a decent Opposition then I could consider voting for them. The most likely alternative party for my vote being the Lib Dems if they could actually become liberal.
Then you'll understand why I am not a "partisan hack" as you keep claiming.
I am happy to go over what would stop me voting Labour if you would like to hear. I would also be quite happy to vote Lib Dem depending on constituency.
I can't vote Tory at the moment because it's an endorsement of populism and the party of Johnsonism which is something I despise almost as much as I now despise Corbynism
At the moment I'm disappointed with Boris because he seems burnt out and is turning against the things he's said and done in the past. If we had more "Johnsonism" that would be an improvement for me and could get me back on board, its the absence of that and the pure chaos and bullshit of recent weeks instead that is the problem.
You may despise "Johnsonism" but I don't I actually like what I consider it to be. And I think "populism" is simply democracy.
Iain Duncan Smith was very conciliatory to the PM on the radio this morning. Whatever you think of Johnson, it didn't sound like the rebels were about to storm the walls.
"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"
A couple of weeks ago it seemed like storming the walls would be necessary to change course.
Now it looks like the course has been changed and the 99 Rebel Loons have won their victory, why keep on fighting?
Because the country is being run by a washed up inadequate, who now most of the country despises
Only ever voted for the Conservative candidate once, back around 1960 in a Co. Council election and my father was the candidate. Before and ever since then it's been Labour or Lib/LD until the last Co. Council, when I voted Green. I like to find out something about the candidate though. Don't necessarily feel I'm voting for the Party leader, although Priti Patel once asked if if I was really voting for Corbyn!
You're supposed to be a Tory as a wise "old" (I hope you won't think me using this as disparaging) man, that's what they say here
It's always on 'on average', otherwise you'd never have any old non-Tory voters. I don't think anyone has ever claimed that *everyone* becomes a Tory when they get older.
Bartholomew will find it helpful as it leans towards his view, though he may want to note AM's point about why the public is slow to move in that direction. I'm gradually shifting myself towards accepting Omicron as something to live with, for the reasons AM sets out.
It's a very nice piece although for me this issue was settled long ago. It's been clear for ages that LIVE WITH IT is the endgame on Covid and is where we are heading. We aren't there quite yet but I expect we will be soon. I'll be surprised if it remains a big story in the UK beyond February.
That sort of post has a hint of "We've done it! We survived the Great War 1914-1917" about it. There's a lot of alphabet after omicron.
Yep, conscious of that. The virus has a history of surprising unpleasantly and we have a history of underestimating it. Nevertheless, putting together how I read the politics of it and what the experts I follow on the virus & vaccines & treatments say about all of that, I'm pretty confident we are in the back end of the pandemic. Here, I mean. Globally, it has a way to run, and I hope this becomes the focus. Eg I hope come Oct we're not debating on here the minutae of getting boosters & superboosters and jabs for toddlers when lots of places still lack even the basic level of protection.
Nice heatmap of the situation. Perhaps an idea for our own charter...
If we look at the rate at which case rates are changing, this has shifted from people in their 20s, to people in their 70s and 80s. Which is obviously *bad*, even if the risks to those groups are much lower because Omicron is less severe and vaccines are awesome. https://t.co/y1xjMUhWwh
Yup
The massive jump in R for 10-24 was interesting... Now being replaced by older groups
Only ever voted for the Conservative candidate once, back around 1960 in a Co. Council election and my father was the candidate. Before and ever since then it's been Labour or Lib/LD until the last Co. Council, when I voted Green. I like to find out something about the candidate though. Don't necessarily feel I'm voting for the Party leader, although Priti Patel once asked if if I was really voting for Corbyn!
You're supposed to be a Tory as a wise "old" (I hope you won't think me using this as disparaging) man, that's what they say here
It's always on 'on average', otherwise you'd never have any old non-Tory voters. I don't think anyone has ever claimed that *everyone* becomes a Tory when they get older.
The point about Captain Hindsight is that it was invented by the Tories and the people that seem to claim they're not partisan hacks - and call others that instead - seem to use it constantly.
Well, I'm happy to call Starmer 'Captain Hindsight', as there's a strong element of truth in it. I'm also happy to call Johnson 'clown', as it also has a strong element of truth.
Does that make me partisan both ways?
I'd like to call the Lib Dem leader something, but I can barely remember who the current leader is. The 'invisible man', perhaps?
Only ever voted for the Conservative candidate once, back around 1960 in a Co. Council election and my father was the candidate. Before and ever since then it's been Labour or Lib/LD until the last Co. Council, when I voted Green. I like to find out something about the candidate though. Don't necessarily feel I'm voting for the Party leader, although Priti Patel once asked if if I was really voting for Corbyn!
You're supposed to be a Tory as a wise "old" (I hope you won't think me using this as disparaging) man, that's what they say here
It's always on 'on average', otherwise you'd never have any old non-Tory voters. I don't think anyone has ever claimed that *everyone* becomes a Tory when they get older.
The point about Captain Hindsight is that it was invented by the Tories and the people that seem to claim they're not partisan hacks - and call others that instead - seem to use it constantly.
Well, I'm happy to call Starmer 'Captain Hindsight', as there's a strong element of truth in it. I'm also happy to call Johnson 'clown', as it also has a strong element of truth.
Does that make me partisan both ways?
I'd like to call the Lib Dem leader something, but I can barely remember who the current leader is. The 'invisible man', perhaps?
I don't consider you a partisan hack. It's those that accuse me of being one and then using language that's just Tory attack lines that make me laugh
Only ever voted for the Conservative candidate once, back around 1960 in a Co. Council election and my father was the candidate. Before and ever since then it's been Labour or Lib/LD until the last Co. Council, when I voted Green. I like to find out something about the candidate though. Don't necessarily feel I'm voting for the Party leader, although Priti Patel once asked if if I was really voting for Corbyn!
You're supposed to be a Tory as a wise "old" (I hope you won't think me using this as disparaging) man, that's what they say here
It's always on 'on average', otherwise you'd never have any old non-Tory voters. I don't think anyone has ever claimed that *everyone* becomes a Tory when they get older.
If Starmer took us into a pointless war I'd quit the Labour Party.
If Starmer ran out of ideas I'd probably vote Lib Dem.
The Tories can consider my vote when they go back to being the party of Ken Clarke and Rory Stewart
If he ran out of ideas? Wouldn't he have to have any to begin with to runout?
Captain Hindsight hasn't had an original idea this entire pandemic, except for a circuit break which failed in Wales and he swiftly distanced himself from.
What ideas does Johnson have? Isn't that the reason the Red Wall are currently running away?
I happen to think bringing the railways back into public ownership, cutting VAT on energy bills, investing in renewable energy, re-introducing SureStart and bringing the country back with competent leadership is probably a good thing.
But you seem to enjoy chaotic populism so his platform probably isn't for you
Johnson has reneged on levelling up. Red Wall voters, as @RochdalePioneers says, are not fools.
I think you'll know I have said that here many times, they are not stupid whatsoever.
But my point is that levelling up has failed because it is an empty slogan with no actual ideas behind it.
Oh, I wasn’t implying otherwise. Just giving one reason why the red wall is abandoning the Tories. You can see from the likes of HYUFD a thinly disguised disregard for these seats and these people but they are the new Tories. Boris would be wise to re engage. Strategically it makes sense too as it cuts off a path back for labour. I suspect where the red wall is concerned there are far more Tories like HYUFD than there are so want to re engage.
The Tories will never outspend Labour, if redwall voters only voted for Boris to get Brexit done no amount of spending on redwall seats will win them back now Brexit is done. Only if Starmer said he would restore free movement and go back to the single market could the Tories hope to win back those former lifelong Labour voters.
If the Tories are re elected it will be only narrowly like 1992, 2015 or 2017 in my view and based on holding the seats Cameron won in 2015 and May won in 2017 and Boris held in 2019. Certainly on that basis there is no point putting up tax on those Tory seats in the South and Midlands Cameron and May won to spend on redwall seats Brown and Ed Milliband won
Only ever voted for the Conservative candidate once, back around 1960 in a Co. Council election and my father was the candidate. Before and ever since then it's been Labour or Lib/LD until the last Co. Council, when I voted Green. I like to find out something about the candidate though. Don't necessarily feel I'm voting for the Party leader, although Priti Patel once asked if if I was really voting for Corbyn!
You're supposed to be a Tory as a wise "old" (I hope you won't think me using this as disparaging) man, that's what they say here
I think some would put the quotation marks round the first adjective!
I don't mind 'old' as descriptive. It's feeling it that I don't like!
Honestly calling Keir Starmer Captain Hindsight makes you look incredibly partisan and undermines any point you're making, it's as useless and pathetic as calling Remainers Remoaners or calling Brexit Brexshit
Except it doesn't. Captain Hindsight is the point I'm making. It sums up Starmer perfectly.
Perhaps you could rebut it by regaling me with your Top 5 original ideas Starmer has had that have so wowed you into supporting him? What are the quality original ideas you'd be worried about him running out of?
Because all I've ever seen from Starmer is a blank slate to be projected upon and criticism in hindsight.
I agree with the point you are making about Starmer Barty, but the use of nicknames that make a particular point does bias the readers view which is the point I think @CorrectHorseBattery is making. The classic example is Remoaner rather than Remainer. I don't care about being called either but it does bias the contents of the post if the former is used.
Only ever voted for the Conservative candidate once, back around 1960 in a Co. Council election and my father was the candidate. Before and ever since then it's been Labour or Lib/LD until the last Co. Council, when I voted Green. I like to find out something about the candidate though. Don't necessarily feel I'm voting for the Party leader, although Priti Patel once asked if if I was really voting for Corbyn!
You're supposed to be a Tory as a wise "old" (I hope you won't think me using this as disparaging) man, that's what they say here
It's always on 'on average', otherwise you'd never have any old non-Tory voters. I don't think anyone has ever claimed that *everyone* becomes a Tory when they get older.
Somebody here did
Really? I find that hard to believe.
I'll be Tory when I'm old they said
I don't think that's the same as saying everyone will vote Tory. Just that on the balance of probabilities you will.
Only ever voted for the Conservative candidate once, back around 1960 in a Co. Council election and my father was the candidate. Before and ever since then it's been Labour or Lib/LD until the last Co. Council, when I voted Green. I like to find out something about the candidate though. Don't necessarily feel I'm voting for the Party leader, although Priti Patel once asked if if I was really voting for Corbyn!
You're supposed to be a Tory as a wise "old" (I hope you won't think me using this as disparaging) man, that's what they say here
It's always on 'on average', otherwise you'd never have any old non-Tory voters. I don't think anyone has ever claimed that *everyone* becomes a Tory when they get older.
Many of my u3a friends (all over 60 by definition) don't vote Tory.
Every f##king day the media do this now and they know the deal. They are being deliberately disingenuous.
It's ridiculous as we are testing more than almost any other country, the only countries doing more tests per capita have a lot smaller populations, and we test multiple times what our European peers do.
Oh and the media and politicians complaining about "not enough tests" are the same wallies complaining about Test and Trace being a waste of money.
Curious thread. Tories still trying to conjure up some party political advantage out of Omicron. Smells a little desperate, but perhaps understandable after the last few weeks. If they were wise they would shut up, try to govern and hope people forget that they party while others lock down.
Everything about this is politics. You could argue the welsh and Scottish governments are doing exactly the same with their approach to Omicron.
Be interesting to see why England fared worse than both Scotland and Wales , if they ever bother to really look at it in future which I seriously doubt.
The reason is obvious. But problematic in polite conversation.
I don't know where you get all this "truth is muzzled in the corner" stuff.
It isn't. You can say what the reason is. You can say it here. You can say it anywhere.
I didn't say it was banned. I said it was problematic. Which is why, when the BBC puts up an article on vaccines refusal (for example), the actual reasons are rather elliptically alluded to.
It’s a very good point. Any evidence the great unjabbed getting jabbed in any numbers at all, or is it just all the jab luvers getting the new jab?
If you were never jabbed at all or only had one, are you added to the booster jabbed total the media put out?
Only ever voted for the Conservative candidate once, back around 1960 in a Co. Council election and my father was the candidate. Before and ever since then it's been Labour or Lib/LD until the last Co. Council, when I voted Green. I like to find out something about the candidate though. Don't necessarily feel I'm voting for the Party leader, although Priti Patel once asked if if I was really voting for Corbyn!
You're supposed to be a Tory as a wise "old" (I hope you won't think me using this as disparaging) man, that's what they say here
I think some would put the quotation marks round the first adjective!
I don't mind 'old' as descriptive. It's feeling it that I don't like!
Well if I may say, you don't come across as old to me OKC, you are one of my favourite posters, you often make me laugh, put a smile on my face and you're always kind. I feel I could learn a lot from you.
Salunke is the hero considering he top scored for his team in both innings, which is all the more impressive as many got king pairs and only one other even scored in innings 2.
Only ever voted for the Conservative candidate once, back around 1960 in a Co. Council election and my father was the candidate. Before and ever since then it's been Labour or Lib/LD until the last Co. Council, when I voted Green. I like to find out something about the candidate though. Don't necessarily feel I'm voting for the Party leader, although Priti Patel once asked if if I was really voting for Corbyn!
You're supposed to be a Tory as a wise "old" (I hope you won't think me using this as disparaging) man, that's what they say here
It's always on 'on average', otherwise you'd never have any old non-Tory voters. I don't think anyone has ever claimed that *everyone* becomes a Tory when they get older.
Many of my u3a friends (all over 60 by definition) don't vote Tory.
Is that really surprising? We like to spend time with people similar to ourselves. You can't deny that old people tend to vote Tory.
Every f##king day the media do this now and they know the deal. They are being deliberately disingenuous.
It's ridiculous as we are testing more than almost any other country, the only countries doing more tests per capita have a lot smaller populations, and we test multiple times what our European peers do.
Do other countries still do tonsils, or is it only UK now given up on accurate testing?
Honestly calling Keir Starmer Captain Hindsight makes you look incredibly partisan and undermines any point you're making, it's as useless and pathetic as calling Remainers Remoaners or calling Brexit Brexshit
Except it doesn't. Captain Hindsight is the point I'm making. It sums up Starmer perfectly.
Perhaps you could rebut it by regaling me with your Top 5 original ideas Starmer has had that have so wowed you into supporting him? What are the quality original ideas you'd be worried about him running out of?
Because all I've ever seen from Starmer is a blank slate to be projected upon and criticism in hindsight.
I agree with the point you are making about Starmer Barty, but the use of nicknames that make a particular point does bias the readers view which is the point I think @CorrectHorseBattery is making. The classic example is Remoaner rather than Remainer. I don't care about being called either but it does bias the contents of the post if the former is used.
I was starting to think that as usual, I just was not being as articulate as some other posters. But I am glad my point was understood by one. This is spot on.
Curious thread. Tories still trying to conjure up some party political advantage out of Omicron. Smells a little desperate, but perhaps understandable after the last few weeks. If they were wise they would shut up, try to govern and hope people forget that they party while others lock down.
Everything about this is politics. You could argue the welsh and Scottish governments are doing exactly the same with their approach to Omicron.
Be interesting to see why England fared worse than both Scotland and Wales , if they ever bother to really look at it in future which I seriously doubt.
The reason is obvious. But problematic in polite conversation.
I don't know where you get all this "truth is muzzled in the corner" stuff.
It isn't. You can say what the reason is. You can say it here. You can say it anywhere.
I didn't say it was banned. I said it was problematic. Which is why, when the BBC puts up an article on vaccines refusal (for example), the actual reasons are rather elliptically alluded to.
It’s a very good point. Any evidence the great unjabbed getting jabbed in any numbers at all, or is it just all the jab luvers getting the new jab?
If you were never jabbed at all or only had one, are you added to the booster jabbed total the media put out?
The booster figure is just boosters - jabs are still reported split between 1st, 2nd and booster/3rd dose (3rd is for vulnerable - usually immunosuppressed - people for whom an extra dose is recommended). Reporting is here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Only ever voted for the Conservative candidate once, back around 1960 in a Co. Council election and my father was the candidate. Before and ever since then it's been Labour or Lib/LD until the last Co. Council, when I voted Green. I like to find out something about the candidate though. Don't necessarily feel I'm voting for the Party leader, although Priti Patel once asked if if I was really voting for Corbyn!
You're supposed to be a Tory as a wise "old" (I hope you won't think me using this as disparaging) man, that's what they say here
It's always on 'on average', otherwise you'd never have any old non-Tory voters. I don't think anyone has ever claimed that *everyone* becomes a Tory when they get older.
Many of my u3a friends (all over 60 by definition) don't vote Tory.
Is that really surprising? We like to spend time with people similar to ourselves. You can't deny that old people tend to vote Tory.
I don't care how my friends vote, I might ask them and disagree with them but voting intentions are irrelevant to me. I couldn't care less! "Wankers from all walks of life" as somebody once told me
If Starmer took us into a pointless war I'd quit the Labour Party.
If Starmer ran out of ideas I'd probably vote Lib Dem.
The Tories can consider my vote when they go back to being the party of Ken Clarke and Rory Stewart
If he ran out of ideas? Wouldn't he have to have any to begin with to runout?
Captain Hindsight hasn't had an original idea this entire pandemic, except for a circuit break which failed in Wales and he swiftly distanced himself from.
What ideas does Johnson have? Isn't that the reason the Red Wall are currently running away?
I happen to think bringing the railways back into public ownership, cutting VAT on energy bills, investing in renewable energy, re-introducing SureStart and bringing the country back with competent leadership is probably a good thing.
But you seem to enjoy chaotic populism so his platform probably isn't for you
Johnson has reneged on levelling up. Red Wall voters, as @RochdalePioneers says, are not fools.
I think you'll know I have said that here many times, they are not stupid whatsoever.
But my point is that levelling up has failed because it is an empty slogan with no actual ideas behind it.
I think that was true when the phrase was invented but in placing Gove there, by far the most innovative minister in the government for good or ill, there is a good chance that we will see a plethora of new ideas this year. Whether we can afford them and whether they are good ideas of course remains to be seen.
Indeed, Gove was posssibly the best appointment into that role. At least we will see a load of ideas, and probably some quick wins that don’t involve massive spending.
Only ever voted for the Conservative candidate once, back around 1960 in a Co. Council election and my father was the candidate. Before and ever since then it's been Labour or Lib/LD until the last Co. Council, when I voted Green. I like to find out something about the candidate though. Don't necessarily feel I'm voting for the Party leader, although Priti Patel once asked if if I was really voting for Corbyn!
You're supposed to be a Tory as a wise "old" (I hope you won't think me using this as disparaging) man, that's what they say here
I think some would put the quotation marks round the first adjective!
I don't mind 'old' as descriptive. It's feeling it that I don't like!
Well if I may say, you don't come across as old to me OKC, you are one of my favourite posters, you often make me laugh, put a smile on my face and you're always kind. I feel I could learn a lot from you.
Thank you. One's children talking about retirement makes one feel that much time has past! And a grandson talking about becoming a headmaster.
Every f##king day the media do this now and they know the deal. They are being deliberately disingenuous.
It's ridiculous as we are testing more than almost any other country, the only countries doing more tests per capita have a lot smaller populations, and we test multiple times what our European peers do.
Oh and the media and politicians complaining about "not enough tests" are the same wallies complaining about Test and Trace being a waste of money.
That doesn't make a good headline. Far easier and better to push a fake narrative that UK is failing on testing. As I pointed out down thread this is clearly deliberate as you can access the test capacity etc data with one click and see that they are talking horseshit.
The fact the system hasn't fallen over yet given the incredible throughput and it being Christmas is quite something. There will always be an upper bound and I imagine if the government ordered that to be say 2 million PCR capacity, all we would hear about is what a waste of money, all these people standing around doing nothing etc etc etc.
Only ever voted for the Conservative candidate once, back around 1960 in a Co. Council election and my father was the candidate. Before and ever since then it's been Labour or Lib/LD until the last Co. Council, when I voted Green. I like to find out something about the candidate though. Don't necessarily feel I'm voting for the Party leader, although Priti Patel once asked if if I was really voting for Corbyn!
You're supposed to be a Tory as a wise "old" (I hope you won't think me using this as disparaging) man, that's what they say here
I think some would put the quotation marks round the first adjective!
I don't mind 'old' as descriptive. It's feeling it that I don't like!
Well if I may say, you don't come across as old to me OKC, you are one of my favourite posters, you often make me laugh, put a smile on my face and you're always kind. I feel I could learn a lot from you.
Thank you. One's children talking about retirement makes one feel that much time has past! And a grandson talking about becoming a headmaster.
I am sure it does, I felt that I had grown up a lot when my grandmother passed and I had no grandparents left, I am sure you treasure them
Bartholomew will find it helpful as it leans towards his view, though he may want to note AM's point about why the public is slow to move in that direction. I'm gradually shifting myself towards accepting Omicron as something to live with, for the reasons AM sets out.
It's a very nice piece although for me this issue was settled long ago. It's been clear for ages that LIVE WITH IT is the endgame on Covid and is where we are heading. We aren't there quite yet but I expect we will be soon. I'll be surprised if it remains a big story in the UK beyond February.
That sort of post has a hint of "We've done it! We survived the Great War 1914-1917" about it. There's a lot of alphabet after omicron.
We'd done it before Omicron. We'd done it by about April or June this year, it's just taken some time for people to realise it.
Once the vaccines were rolled out, it isn't the virus mutating that is the big change, it's having vaccines that is.
We aren't in the trenches anymore. The vaccine rollout was Hiroshima and the booster is Nagasaki.
You can be Hiroo Onoda if it pleases you.
The Nativity Play fallacy at work again.A story is not true just because it is heartwarming. There is no reason at all to discount the possibility of a vaccine resistant and much more lethal strain emeging.
You're right there's no reason to discount it.
There's also no reason to discount a coup in Russia leading to nuclear conflict.
Or a Carrington Event/Coronal Mass Ejection stopping our modern life as we know it.
Or an asteroid striking the earth.
Or a Rise of the Machines.
But just because something is possible in the future doesn't mean that it's happening right now. It remains science fiction.
Nice heatmap of the situation. Perhaps an idea for our own charter...
If we look at the rate at which case rates are changing, this has shifted from people in their 20s, to people in their 70s and 80s. Which is obviously *bad*, even if the risks to those groups are much lower because Omicron is less severe and vaccines are awesome. https://t.co/y1xjMUhWwh
Yup
The massive jump in R for 10-24 was interesting... Now being replaced by older groups
Younger groups show in waves first because they are more social?
My Dad is true blue Tory and I frequently disagree with him on mostly everything but he has instilled in me a work ethic which I will always appreciate. And he is an honourable man, politics is not everything
Only ever voted for the Conservative candidate once, back around 1960 in a Co. Council election and my father was the candidate. Before and ever since then it's been Labour or Lib/LD until the last Co. Council, when I voted Green. I like to find out something about the candidate though. Don't necessarily feel I'm voting for the Party leader, although Priti Patel once asked if if I was really voting for Corbyn!
You're supposed to be a Tory as a wise "old" (I hope you won't think me using this as disparaging) man, that's what they say here
It's always on 'on average', otherwise you'd never have any old non-Tory voters. I don't think anyone has ever claimed that *everyone* becomes a Tory when they get older.
Many of my u3a friends (all over 60 by definition) don't vote Tory.
Is that really surprising? We like to spend time with people similar to ourselves. You can't deny that old people tend to vote Tory.
I don't care how my friends vote, I might ask them and disagree with them but voting intentions are irrelevant to me. I couldn't care less! "Wankers from all walks of life" as somebody once told me
Am I really making an outlandish claim when I say people like to spend time with people who have similar views? I don't think everyone has friends that are a representative cross-section of the wider community.
If Starmer took us into a pointless war I'd quit the Labour Party.
If Starmer ran out of ideas I'd probably vote Lib Dem.
The Tories can consider my vote when they go back to being the party of Ken Clarke and Rory Stewart
If he ran out of ideas? Wouldn't he have to have any to begin with to runout?
Captain Hindsight hasn't had an original idea this entire pandemic, except for a circuit break which failed in Wales and he swiftly distanced himself from.
What ideas does Johnson have? Isn't that the reason the Red Wall are currently running away?
I happen to think bringing the railways back into public ownership, cutting VAT on energy bills, investing in renewable energy, re-introducing SureStart and bringing the country back with competent leadership is probably a good thing.
But you seem to enjoy chaotic populism so his platform probably isn't for you
Johnson has reneged on levelling up. Red Wall voters, as @RochdalePioneers says, are not fools.
I think you'll know I have said that here many times, they are not stupid whatsoever.
But my point is that levelling up has failed because it is an empty slogan with no actual ideas behind it.
I think that was true when the phrase was invented but in placing Gove there, by far the most innovative minister in the government for good or ill, there is a good chance that we will see a plethora of new ideas this year. Whether we can afford them and whether they are good ideas of course remains to be seen.
My point is that Starmer is accused of having no ideas yet the person who keeps saying that has just voted for somebody else with the same problem. The reality is that they like "Boris" whatever that means. It's about personality not really about policies, which is fine.
I happen to think Gove is constantly underrated.
I must confess I was a little uncertain about what was meant by Johnsonism. I agree that he does not have clearly defined principles or policies. The result is something of a muddle but seems in practice to result in a much more interventionist state than Tories are used to and higher levels of public spending because he finds saying no hard. Whether you consider that a good or a bad thing really depends on your own views about the benefits of state intervention.
Being LOTO is hard. Even Cameron struggled at times and he was much better at it than anyone since Blair. You need to have ideas, to be informed, to be good at giving clear soundbites (Blair was particularly good at this) and to be heard. SKS did very poorly at this in his first year where he was clearly more focused on the internal disaster area that Corbyn left behind. More recently he has improved but he has a long way to go.
Only ever voted for the Conservative candidate once, back around 1960 in a Co. Council election and my father was the candidate. Before and ever since then it's been Labour or Lib/LD until the last Co. Council, when I voted Green. I like to find out something about the candidate though. Don't necessarily feel I'm voting for the Party leader, although Priti Patel once asked if if I was really voting for Corbyn!
You're supposed to be a Tory as a wise "old" (I hope you won't think me using this as disparaging) man, that's what they say here
It's always on 'on average', otherwise you'd never have any old non-Tory voters. I don't think anyone has ever claimed that *everyone* becomes a Tory when they get older.
Somebody here did
Really? I find that hard to believe.
I'll be Tory when I'm old they said
I don't think that's the same as saying everyone will vote Tory. Just that on the balance of probabilities you will.
Age will not make me into a Tory voter. A Conservative party with realistic, thought-through policies might do so, but the current populist / nationalist clique inhabiting the hollowed out corpse of the old Conservative Party has no chance.
Every f##king day the media do this now and they know the deal. They are being deliberately disingenuous.
It's ridiculous as we are testing more than almost any other country, the only countries doing more tests per capita have a lot smaller populations, and we test multiple times what our European peers do.
Oh and the media and politicians complaining about "not enough tests" are the same wallies complaining about Test and Trace being a waste of money.
That doesn't make a good headline. Far easier and better to push a fake narrative that UK is failing on testing.
Yeah, just look at all the testing Israel and UAE are doing, UK England is no-where near that.
My Dad is true blue Tory and I frequently disagree with him on mostly everything but he has instilled in me a work ethic which I will always appreciate. And he is an honourable man, politics is not everything
I wish I had your work ethic. I can only spend about half the day on PB before I get bored and go off to something else.
Comments
I really don't understand why some people - despite having zero clinical experience of looking after Covid patients - insist that Omicron is not causing more mild disease in the vaccinated than previous variants.
You can't judge severity just by looking at numbers/graphs -
1/5
https://twitter.com/drraghibali/status/1476136638447296513?t=udOU0XBqLhqDF_bfE0al2Q&s=19
The frothers have looked at the likely alternatives and decided that actually, no, they're too sane.
Brexiteers are completely useless with the practical stuff. So we wind up with "taking control" by having no checks on imports, just imposing problems and costs for our exports.
What a bunch of useless numpties they are!
It isn't. You can say what the reason is. You can say it here. You can say it anywhere.
I'm proud to have voted against both of them.
Once the vaccines were rolled out, it isn't the virus mutating that is the big change, it's having vaccines that is.
We aren't in the trenches anymore. The vaccine rollout was Hiroshima and the booster is Nagasaki.
You can be Hiroo Onoda if it pleases you.
Money talks, and China ain’t got any 😁
"Why are you trying to kill a story?"
I do think the Captain hindsight thing has a point as he does have the remarkable ability to show wisdom after the event.
But my point is that levelling up has failed because it is an empty slogan with no actual ideas behind it.
DW News reports on latest raid on media
https://youtu.be/VzPoqIL0bE8
Assuming punters bet in equal numbers on each horse
With 2 horses, there is one loser so with 80 punters there are 40 to pay the bookies margin
With 8 horses there are 7 losers, so with 80 punters there are 70 to pay the bookies margin.
If the overround is 15% on the larger race the individual losing punter is paying 1/70*0.15 = 0.002 vs 1/40*.08 = 0.002
They must be getting anxious about both the integrity of the competition if there are more withdrawals, and of the possibility of e.g. a walkover in the semis or the final rendering the whole thing a massive anti-climax.
Thatcherite Eurosceptics and Socialists liked that clear cut choice even if centrists didn't.
Note too in 1983 the SDP-Liberal Alliance got the highest ever post war 3rd party vote at 25%, while in 2019 the Liberal Democrat voteshare was back up to 11%, its highest level since before the Cameron and Clegg coalition in 2010
Perhaps you could rebut it by regaling me with your Top 5 original ideas Starmer has had that have so wowed you into supporting him? What are the quality original ideas you'd be worried about him running out of?
Because all I've ever seen from Starmer is a blank slate to be projected upon and criticism in hindsight.
I think in the 2010s your vote was taken for granted, no doubt about that.
I can't remember who posted it but somebody said around the recent by-election the Tories seemed to give up, I can't find any anecdotal support for that idea but it's an interesting one
If we look at the rate at which case rates are changing, this has shifted from people in their 20s, to people in their 70s and 80s. Which is obviously *bad*, even if the risks to those groups are much lower because Omicron is less severe and vaccines are awesome. https://t.co/y1xjMUhWwh
For a full analysis, you'd need to know whether there is a systemic bias on the longer or shorter odds, or whether it's spread evenly across all prices. My hunch is that favourite prices tend to be fairer and the longer odds are way too short, but I don't have any inside information on that.
I happen to think Gove is constantly underrated.
The massive jump in R for 10-24 was interesting... Now being replaced by older groups
Does that make me partisan both ways?
I'd like to call the Lib Dem leader something, but I can barely remember who the current leader is. The 'invisible man', perhaps?
If the Tories are re elected it will be only narrowly like 1992, 2015 or 2017 in my view and based on holding the seats Cameron won in 2015 and May won in 2017 and Boris held in 2019. Certainly on that basis there is no point putting up tax on those Tory seats in the South and Midlands Cameron and May won to spend on redwall seats Brown and Ed Milliband won
I don't mind 'old' as descriptive. It's feeling it that I don't like!
Prof Francois Balloux
@BallouxFrancois
·
9h
He said: "The pandemic will come to an end and we will eventually be able to lift all restrictions."
They screamed: "How can you say such a horrible thing, you dystopian, fascist, racist, eugenist ..."
Oh and the media and politicians complaining about "not enough tests" are the same wallies complaining about Test and Trace being a waste of money.
If you were never jabbed at all or only had one, are you added to the booster jabbed total the media put out?
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
The fact the system hasn't fallen over yet given the incredible throughput and it being Christmas is quite something. There will always be an upper bound and I imagine if the government ordered that to be say 2 million PCR capacity, all we would hear about is what a waste of money, all these people standing around doing nothing etc etc etc.
There's also no reason to discount a coup in Russia leading to nuclear conflict.
Or a Carrington Event/Coronal Mass Ejection stopping our modern life as we know it.
Or an asteroid striking the earth.
Or a Rise of the Machines.
But just because something is possible in the future doesn't mean that it's happening right now. It remains science fiction.
Being LOTO is hard. Even Cameron struggled at times and he was much better at it than anyone since Blair. You need to have ideas, to be informed, to be good at giving clear soundbites (Blair was particularly good at this) and to be heard. SKS did very poorly at this in his first year where he was clearly more focused on the internal disaster area that Corbyn left behind. More recently he has improved but he has a long way to go.