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New betting market – A CON vote lead before Jan 31st? – politicalbetting.com

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  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    Endillion said:

    pigeon said:

    Charles said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    The Uk is somewhere in the middle
    Cumulative per capita Covid deaths per million (source: ourworldindata)

    I've listed a selection. We may anticipate that some states, e.g. the Russians, are under-reporting, but it should be fairly accurate for most developed nations:

    Peru: 6,071
    Hungary: 4,021
    Romania: 3,062
    Brazil: 2,892
    Poland: 2,497
    United States: 2,458
    Belgium: 2,426
    Italy: 2,265
    United Kingdom: 2,172
    Russia: 2,050
    EU average: 2,003
    Spain: 1,907
    France: 1,820
    South Africa: 1,513
    Germany: 1,321
    Netherlands: 1,211
    Canada: 794
    Denmark: 553
    Australia: 85
    New Zealand: 10

    Thus we're doing a little worse than the EU average, a little better than the Americans, Belgians and Italians, a little worse than the French and Spanish, and substantially worse than the Germans, Dutch and Canadians. The UK's performance in terms of Covid deaths might be summarised as fairly poor, but not a huge outlier from its peer group. There are plenty of nations for whom suppression hasn't worked terribly well, through poor application laced with varying degrees of bad luck.
    We'll probably end up better than the EU average once the Omicron wave is all done. France and Spain are likely to overtake us, as they have similar 1st and 2nd dose vaccination rates, are quite a way behind on boosters, and have less natural immunity from infections. We might already be ahead of the EU average, if you adjusted for demographics and co-morbidities.
    Isn't the UK a bit younger than the EU?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Omicron looks safeish with vaccination. 512 kids hospitalised on boxing day isn't great though, the JCVI should approve for all 5-11 >.>

    But JCVI are using a model that says that nearly no children will get COVID. Why is reality wrong, again?
    I suspect too many on the jcvi are very cautious about causing harm via vaccination, and some are still hung up on getting world vaccination done rather than more in the U.K. This is despite the abundance of vaccines now, so supply is surely not limited.
    One interesting thing is that vaccinated people also are not dying so fast of non-covid disease. Take that antivaxxers!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1475827926235062277?t=aBlC3Rbe_QiXyoOR3vbFzQ&s=19

    I think that I have said all along that European countries will be much of a muchness in terms of total outcomes once this is all over.

    I think there will be some variation, but you then have to start accounting for so many differing factors. Germany has done better, but certainly difficult to now call it a success.

    The real important questions are not really did this country do slightly better than another, its what worked and what didn't. Why did Germany do better than the UK for instance, we have some ideas in terms of how hospitals function / capacity, but were there other things? And what didn't work. And most importantly how to prepare best for the future.
    Germany has 4 times as many ICU beds per capita than us.

    Incidentally, I walked home from the match past the LRI casualty. 25 Ambulances on the forecourt with lights on. This means they are unable to unload. Looks like it will be very busy when I go back tomorrow.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088
    edited December 2021
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Omicron looks safeish with vaccination. 512 kids hospitalised on boxing day isn't great though, the JCVI should approve for all 5-11 >.>

    But JCVI are using a model that says that nearly no children will get COVID. Why is reality wrong, again?
    I suspect too many on the jcvi are very cautious about causing harm via vaccination, and some are still hung up on getting world vaccination done rather than more in the U.K. This is despite the abundance of vaccines now, so supply is surely not limited.
    One interesting thing is that vaccinated people also are not dying so fast of non-covid disease. Take that antivaxxers!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1475827926235062277?t=aBlC3Rbe_QiXyoOR3vbFzQ&s=19

    I think that I have said all along that European countries will be much of a muchness in terms of total outcomes once this is all over.
    If you're talking about overall per capita death rates then that's going to require a massacre in many countries, notably Germany, Holland, Ireland and the Scandis, which seems mercifully implausible. But we're a lot closer to France and Spain (a bit better than Britain) and Italy (a bit worse.) As per the data I posted earlier this evening, if the UK gets off lightly from Omicron it might yet fall down the mortality league table a bit further, but there's still going to be a wide gulf in performance across the continent at the end of all of this.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    There's much, much more to the pandemic than how many people "died" and Johnson definitely doesn't deserve a 10/10, he's been far too lockdown heavy and lifted lockdown restrictions too late in the summer.

    Being better than others, doesn't mean you're perfect by any means.
    Johnson isn't better than others. At best we are middling. The idea we are the best, or better than anyone else is absurd and you look ridiculous for such a POV
    First in the world for vaccines being rolled out.
    First in the world of major nations for vaccines being rolled out.
    One of the only developed nations to lift all restrictions in the summer.

    How the fuck is first "middling"? Don't be ridiculous, there is nothing "middling" about first. 🙄
    We are decidedly middling, at best, in respect of the death rate from Covid, however one chooses to measure it. Arguably, for an advanced country such as ours the death rate is disappointing. For many, this is a more important metric than those you cite. Of course, the death rate is provisional - as is all the other data.
    I have no idea why anyone would prioritise the death rate from Covid as a more important metric than the speed of rolling out vaccines.

    Deaths are natural, vaccines are human. The latter is far more consequential.
    Well that's your POV and that's how you differ from some of us. I think it's a moral disgrace how many people have died unnecessarily during COVID, much of that due to our inaction here in this country. NZ have done a much better job at preventing death, as have many others.

    You don't prioritise that as a mark of success but I do.
    You have your priorities, I have mine.

    In hindsight I think we'd have been better doing the Swedish model and having no restrictions even pre-vaccines. I accepted lockdown as a necessary evil pre-vaccines and in hindsight I think I was wrong to do so.

    NZ have had people unable to travel for years. There will be plenty who've died in NZ from natural causes having been cut off from their family for their final two years of their lives.

    Are their deaths less "worthy" than Covid deaths to be counted?
    If you can provide evidence more people have died in NZ due to lack of travel than have been prevented by this policy, I would like to see it. I don't know what a good number would be - but many thousands would have needed to die for the policy not to be worth it.

    I think the Swedish model was a disaster, with even the architect of it saying it was wrong.
    I didn't say that more people died due to lack of travel, I said more people lost their final years of lives due to the restrictions. The two points are very different.

    About 35k people die naturally in NZ annually anyway. So about 70k have died in 2 years having lost their final years cut off from family and loved ones. Those 70k who've died naturally aren't going to be brought back to life to see their loved ones again when the restrictions are lifted.

    Yet if you check the "death" charts shared by Covid obsessives then 50 people have died in New Zealand apparently.

    50 really? What happened to the other approximately 69,950 that have either been buried or cremated?
    In what way have people in NZ been "cut off"?
    Most of the time life has gone on there as normal.
    They've had a much shorter lockdown period than us.
    One of the stories of the pandemic that I found most strange was when the England women's cricket team went on a tour of New Zealand last winter. In an interview a couple of the players talked about how much they were enjoying being able to do normal things without any of the Covid rules back in England, after they'd been through the quarantine period.

    It was very odd to have previously normal things described as unusual treats. We have had a very weird couple of years.
    Yes. I recall watching weekly Rugby games from NZ and Oz played to packed stadiums when we didn't even have any sport at all.
    The idea they've simply locked everyone up is bizarre and false. They've taken quarantine Uber seriously, and traced and not been afraid to lockdown severely to stamp out tiny, by our standards, outbreaks.
    The rest of the time they've had full freedom to do whatever.
    It is fair to say they had long periods in very strict lockdown e.g.

    New Zealand’s biggest city ends its 107-day lockdown.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/world/asia/new-zealand-auckland-lockdown.html
    Yes. But they haven't been locked up nationwide for 2 years as BR implies.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Omicron looks safeish with vaccination. 512 kids hospitalised on boxing day isn't great though, the JCVI should approve for all 5-11 >.>

    But JCVI are using a model that says that nearly no children will get COVID. Why is reality wrong, again?
    I suspect too many on the jcvi are very cautious about causing harm via vaccination, and some are still hung up on getting world vaccination done rather than more in the U.K. This is despite the abundance of vaccines now, so supply is surely not limited.
    One interesting thing is that vaccinated people also are not dying so fast of non-covid disease. Take that antivaxxers!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1475827926235062277?t=aBlC3Rbe_QiXyoOR3vbFzQ&s=19

    I think that I have said all along that European countries will be much of a muchness in terms of total outcomes once this is all over.

    I think there will be some variation, but you then have to start accounting for so many differing factors. Germany has done better, but certainly difficult to now call it a success.

    The real important questions are not really did this country do slightly better than another, its what worked and what didn't. Why did Germany do better than the UK for instance, we have some ideas in terms of how hospitals function / capacity, but were there other things? And what didn't work. And most importantly how to prepare best for the future.
    Germany has 4 times as many ICU beds per capita than us.

    Incidentally, I walked home from the match past the LRI casualty. 25 Ambulances on the forecourt with lights on. This means they are unable to unload. Looks like it will be very busy when I go back tomorrow.
    Germany also uses a different model of socialised healthcare...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    kamski said:

    Endillion said:

    pigeon said:

    Charles said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    The Uk is somewhere in the middle
    Cumulative per capita Covid deaths per million (source: ourworldindata)

    I've listed a selection. We may anticipate that some states, e.g. the Russians, are under-reporting, but it should be fairly accurate for most developed nations:

    Peru: 6,071
    Hungary: 4,021
    Romania: 3,062
    Brazil: 2,892
    Poland: 2,497
    United States: 2,458
    Belgium: 2,426
    Italy: 2,265
    United Kingdom: 2,172
    Russia: 2,050
    EU average: 2,003
    Spain: 1,907
    France: 1,820
    South Africa: 1,513
    Germany: 1,321
    Netherlands: 1,211
    Canada: 794
    Denmark: 553
    Australia: 85
    New Zealand: 10

    Thus we're doing a little worse than the EU average, a little better than the Americans, Belgians and Italians, a little worse than the French and Spanish, and substantially worse than the Germans, Dutch and Canadians. The UK's performance in terms of Covid deaths might be summarised as fairly poor, but not a huge outlier from its peer group. There are plenty of nations for whom suppression hasn't worked terribly well, through poor application laced with varying degrees of bad luck.
    We'll probably end up better than the EU average once the Omicron wave is all done. France and Spain are likely to overtake us, as they have similar 1st and 2nd dose vaccination rates, are quite a way behind on boosters, and have less natural immunity from infections. We might already be ahead of the EU average, if you adjusted for demographics and co-morbidities.
    Isn't the UK a bit younger than the EU?
    Yes, but less healthy by most measures.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    There's much, much more to the pandemic than how many people "died" and Johnson definitely doesn't deserve a 10/10, he's been far too lockdown heavy and lifted lockdown restrictions too late in the summer.

    Being better than others, doesn't mean you're perfect by any means.
    Johnson isn't better than others. At best we are middling. The idea we are the best, or better than anyone else is absurd and you look ridiculous for such a POV
    First in the world for vaccines being rolled out.
    First in the world of major nations for vaccines being rolled out.
    One of the only developed nations to lift all restrictions in the summer.

    How the fuck is first "middling"? Don't be ridiculous, there is nothing "middling" about first. 🙄
    We are decidedly middling, at best, in respect of the death rate from Covid, however one chooses to measure it. Arguably, for an advanced country such as ours the death rate is disappointing. For many, this is a more important metric than those you cite. Of course, the death rate is provisional - as is all the other data.
    I have no idea why anyone would prioritise the death rate from Covid as a more important metric than the speed of rolling out vaccines.

    Deaths are natural, vaccines are human. The latter is far more consequential.
    Well that's your POV and that's how you differ from some of us. I think it's a moral disgrace how many people have died unnecessarily during COVID, much of that due to our inaction here in this country. NZ have done a much better job at preventing death, as have many others.

    You don't prioritise that as a mark of success but I do.
    You have your priorities, I have mine.

    In hindsight I think we'd have been better doing the Swedish model and having no restrictions even pre-vaccines. I accepted lockdown as a necessary evil pre-vaccines and in hindsight I think I was wrong to do so.

    NZ have had people unable to travel for years. There will be plenty who've died in NZ from natural causes having been cut off from their family for their final two years of their lives.

    Are their deaths less "worthy" than Covid deaths to be counted?
    If you can provide evidence more people have died in NZ due to lack of travel than have been prevented by this policy, I would like to see it. I don't know what a good number would be - but many thousands would have needed to die for the policy not to be worth it.

    I think the Swedish model was a disaster, with even the architect of it saying it was wrong.
    I didn't say that more people died due to lack of travel, I said more people lost their final years of lives due to the restrictions. The two points are very different.

    About 35k people die naturally in NZ annually anyway. So about 70k have died in 2 years having lost their final years cut off from family and loved ones. Those 70k who've died naturally aren't going to be brought back to life to see their loved ones again when the restrictions are lifted.

    Yet if you check the "death" charts shared by Covid obsessives then 50 people have died in New Zealand apparently.

    50 really? What happened to the other approximately 69,950 that have either been buried or cremated?
    In what way have people in NZ been "cut off"?
    Most of the time life has gone on there as normal.
    They've had a much shorter lockdown period than us.
    One of the stories of the pandemic that I found most strange was when the England women's cricket team went on a tour of New Zealand last winter. In an interview a couple of the players talked about how much they were enjoying being able to do normal things without any of the Covid rules back in England, after they'd been through the quarantine period.

    It was very odd to have previously normal things described as unusual treats. We have had a very weird couple of years.
    Yes. I recall watching weekly Rugby games from NZ and Oz played to packed stadiums when we didn't even have any sport at all.
    The idea they've simply locked everyone up is bizarre and false. They've taken quarantine Uber seriously, and traced and not been afraid to lockdown severely to stamp out tiny, by our standards, outbreaks.
    The rest of the time they've had full freedom to do whatever.
    It is fair to say they had long periods in very strict lockdown e.g.

    New Zealand’s biggest city ends its 107-day lockdown.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/world/asia/new-zealand-auckland-lockdown.html
    Yes. But they haven't been locked up nationwide for 2 years as BR implies.
    I never said that, I think you've misunderstood me. To be clear, that's not what I was claiming.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Omicron looks safeish with vaccination. 512 kids hospitalised on boxing day isn't great though, the JCVI should approve for all 5-11 >.>

    But JCVI are using a model that says that nearly no children will get COVID. Why is reality wrong, again?
    I suspect too many on the jcvi are very cautious about causing harm via vaccination, and some are still hung up on getting world vaccination done rather than more in the U.K. This is despite the abundance of vaccines now, so supply is surely not limited.
    One interesting thing is that vaccinated people also are not dying so fast of non-covid disease. Take that antivaxxers!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1475827926235062277?t=aBlC3Rbe_QiXyoOR3vbFzQ&s=19

    I think that I have said all along that European countries will be much of a muchness in terms of total outcomes once this is all over.

    I think there will be some variation, but you then have to start accounting for so many differing factors. Germany has done better, but certainly difficult to now call it a success.

    The real important questions are not really did this country do slightly better than another, its what worked and what didn't. Why did Germany do better than the UK for instance, we have some ideas in terms of how hospitals function / capacity, but were there other things? And what didn't work. And most importantly how to prepare best for the future.
    Germany has 4 times as many ICU beds per capita than us.

    Incidentally, I walked home from the match past the LRI casualty. 25 Ambulances on the forecourt with lights on. This means they are unable to unload. Looks like it will be very busy when I go back tomorrow.
    I'd take 4x with a massive pinch of salt.

    I think it's true that there was often, especially early on, a tendency to admit patients earlier, with milder symptoms in Germany, which probably had some effect. And was partly due to less concern about running out of beds.
  • He is a very weird dude....

    Elon Musk: F*ck that, we'll get it done
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KoihlAl7ugQ
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021
    kamski said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Omicron looks safeish with vaccination. 512 kids hospitalised on boxing day isn't great though, the JCVI should approve for all 5-11 >.>

    But JCVI are using a model that says that nearly no children will get COVID. Why is reality wrong, again?
    I suspect too many on the jcvi are very cautious about causing harm via vaccination, and some are still hung up on getting world vaccination done rather than more in the U.K. This is despite the abundance of vaccines now, so supply is surely not limited.
    One interesting thing is that vaccinated people also are not dying so fast of non-covid disease. Take that antivaxxers!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1475827926235062277?t=aBlC3Rbe_QiXyoOR3vbFzQ&s=19

    I think that I have said all along that European countries will be much of a muchness in terms of total outcomes once this is all over.

    I think there will be some variation, but you then have to start accounting for so many differing factors. Germany has done better, but certainly difficult to now call it a success.

    The real important questions are not really did this country do slightly better than another, its what worked and what didn't. Why did Germany do better than the UK for instance, we have some ideas in terms of how hospitals function / capacity, but were there other things? And what didn't work. And most importantly how to prepare best for the future.
    Germany has 4 times as many ICU beds per capita than us.

    Incidentally, I walked home from the match past the LRI casualty. 25 Ambulances on the forecourt with lights on. This means they are unable to unload. Looks like it will be very busy when I go back tomorrow.
    I'd take 4x with a massive pinch of salt.

    I think it's true that there was often, especially early on, a tendency to admit patients earlier, with milder symptoms in Germany, which probably had some effect. And was partly due to less concern about running out of beds.
    I have said this before, and no idea what the advice in other countries has been....but I wonder how many lives would have been saved if the advice had been to everybody if you test positive for covid check you oxygen sat levels and if they drop immediately go to hospital regardless of how you feel.

    It seems shocking even 2 years into this there doesn't seem any coherent advice of how to manage your progress through COVID and when to decide you need to pull the emergency cord.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    There's much, much more to the pandemic than how many people "died" and Johnson definitely doesn't deserve a 10/10, he's been far too lockdown heavy and lifted lockdown restrictions too late in the summer.

    Being better than others, doesn't mean you're perfect by any means.
    Johnson isn't better than others. At best we are middling. The idea we are the best, or better than anyone else is absurd and you look ridiculous for such a POV
    First in the world for vaccines being rolled out.
    First in the world of major nations for vaccines being rolled out.
    One of the only developed nations to lift all restrictions in the summer.

    How the fuck is first "middling"? Don't be ridiculous, there is nothing "middling" about first. 🙄
    We are decidedly middling, at best, in respect of the death rate from Covid, however one chooses to measure it. Arguably, for an advanced country such as ours the death rate is disappointing. For many, this is a more important metric than those you cite. Of course, the death rate is provisional - as is all the other data.
    I have no idea why anyone would prioritise the death rate from Covid as a more important metric than the speed of rolling out vaccines.

    Deaths are natural, vaccines are human. The latter is far more consequential.
    Well that's your POV and that's how you differ from some of us. I think it's a moral disgrace how many people have died unnecessarily during COVID, much of that due to our inaction here in this country. NZ have done a much better job at preventing death, as have many others.

    You don't prioritise that as a mark of success but I do.
    You have your priorities, I have mine.

    In hindsight I think we'd have been better doing the Swedish model and having no restrictions even pre-vaccines. I accepted lockdown as a necessary evil pre-vaccines and in hindsight I think I was wrong to do so.

    NZ have had people unable to travel for years. There will be plenty who've died in NZ from natural causes having been cut off from their family for their final two years of their lives.

    Are their deaths less "worthy" than Covid deaths to be counted?
    If you can provide evidence more people have died in NZ due to lack of travel than have been prevented by this policy, I would like to see it. I don't know what a good number would be - but many thousands would have needed to die for the policy not to be worth it.

    I think the Swedish model was a disaster, with even the architect of it saying it was wrong.
    I didn't say that more people died due to lack of travel, I said more people lost their final years of lives due to the restrictions. The two points are very different.

    About 35k people die naturally in NZ annually anyway. So about 70k have died in 2 years having lost their final years cut off from family and loved ones. Those 70k who've died naturally aren't going to be brought back to life to see their loved ones again when the restrictions are lifted.

    Yet if you check the "death" charts shared by Covid obsessives then 50 people have died in New Zealand apparently.

    50 really? What happened to the other approximately 69,950 that have either been buried or cremated?
    In what way have people in NZ been "cut off"?
    Most of the time life has gone on there as normal.
    They've had a much shorter lockdown period than us.
    One of the stories of the pandemic that I found most strange was when the England women's cricket team went on a tour of New Zealand last winter. In an interview a couple of the players talked about how much they were enjoying being able to do normal things without any of the Covid rules back in England, after they'd been through the quarantine period.

    It was very odd to have previously normal things described as unusual treats. We have had a very weird couple of years.
    Yes. I recall watching weekly Rugby games from NZ and Oz played to packed stadiums when we didn't even have any sport at all.
    The idea they've simply locked everyone up is bizarre and false. They've taken quarantine Uber seriously, and traced and not been afraid to lockdown severely to stamp out tiny, by our standards, outbreaks.
    The rest of the time they've had full freedom to do whatever.
    It is fair to say they had long periods in very strict lockdown e.g.

    New Zealand’s biggest city ends its 107-day lockdown.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/world/asia/new-zealand-auckland-lockdown.html
    Yes. But they haven't been locked up nationwide for 2 years as BR implies.
    I never said that, I think you've misunderstood me. To be clear, that's not what I was claiming.
    You were claiming 70 k New Zealanders died without being able to see loved ones.
    That was untrue. You rowed that back to overseas relatives.
    Does every single New Zealander have an overseas relative who would expect to normally be at their deathbed?
    If not then you are spouting bollocks.
    For most of the pandemic, most of New Zealand has had fewer restrictions than us.
    And infinitesimally fewer deaths.
    And no. They aren't comparable countries.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199

    kamski said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Omicron looks safeish with vaccination. 512 kids hospitalised on boxing day isn't great though, the JCVI should approve for all 5-11 >.>

    But JCVI are using a model that says that nearly no children will get COVID. Why is reality wrong, again?
    I suspect too many on the jcvi are very cautious about causing harm via vaccination, and some are still hung up on getting world vaccination done rather than more in the U.K. This is despite the abundance of vaccines now, so supply is surely not limited.
    One interesting thing is that vaccinated people also are not dying so fast of non-covid disease. Take that antivaxxers!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1475827926235062277?t=aBlC3Rbe_QiXyoOR3vbFzQ&s=19

    I think that I have said all along that European countries will be much of a muchness in terms of total outcomes once this is all over.

    I think there will be some variation, but you then have to start accounting for so many differing factors. Germany has done better, but certainly difficult to now call it a success.

    The real important questions are not really did this country do slightly better than another, its what worked and what didn't. Why did Germany do better than the UK for instance, we have some ideas in terms of how hospitals function / capacity, but were there other things? And what didn't work. And most importantly how to prepare best for the future.
    Germany has 4 times as many ICU beds per capita than us.

    Incidentally, I walked home from the match past the LRI casualty. 25 Ambulances on the forecourt with lights on. This means they are unable to unload. Looks like it will be very busy when I go back tomorrow.
    I'd take 4x with a massive pinch of salt.

    I think it's true that there was often, especially early on, a tendency to admit patients earlier, with milder symptoms in Germany, which probably had some effect. And was partly due to less concern about running out of beds.
    I have said this before, and no idea what the advice in other countries has been....but I wonder how many lives would have been saved if the advice had been to everybody if you test positive for covid check you oxygen sat levels and if they drop immediately go to hospital regardless of how you feel.

    It seems shocking even 2 years into this there doesn't seem any coherent advice of how to manage your progress through COVID and when to decide you need to pull the emergency cord.
    Yes people are still showing up to hospital several days too late. Also here in Germany.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    kamski said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Omicron looks safeish with vaccination. 512 kids hospitalised on boxing day isn't great though, the JCVI should approve for all 5-11 >.>

    But JCVI are using a model that says that nearly no children will get COVID. Why is reality wrong, again?
    I suspect too many on the jcvi are very cautious about causing harm via vaccination, and some are still hung up on getting world vaccination done rather than more in the U.K. This is despite the abundance of vaccines now, so supply is surely not limited.
    One interesting thing is that vaccinated people also are not dying so fast of non-covid disease. Take that antivaxxers!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1475827926235062277?t=aBlC3Rbe_QiXyoOR3vbFzQ&s=19

    I think that I have said all along that European countries will be much of a muchness in terms of total outcomes once this is all over.

    I think there will be some variation, but you then have to start accounting for so many differing factors. Germany has done better, but certainly difficult to now call it a success.

    The real important questions are not really did this country do slightly better than another, its what worked and what didn't. Why did Germany do better than the UK for instance, we have some ideas in terms of how hospitals function / capacity, but were there other things? And what didn't work. And most importantly how to prepare best for the future.
    Germany has 4 times as many ICU beds per capita than us.

    Incidentally, I walked home from the match past the LRI casualty. 25 Ambulances on the forecourt with lights on. This means they are unable to unload. Looks like it will be very busy when I go back tomorrow.
    I'd take 4x with a massive pinch of salt.

    I think it's true that there was often, especially early on, a tendency to admit patients earlier, with milder symptoms in Germany, which probably had some effect. And was partly due to less concern about running out of beds.
    Yes, I think the British policy of "stay at home with hot broth" caused quite a lot of deaths in the first wave as people arrived quite moribund.

    I favour simple control measures that do not greatly interfere with life such as equipping Health and Scial care with FFP3 masks, HEPA filters in schools and the like, education and availability of easy to use pulse oximetry etc.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    There's much, much more to the pandemic than how many people "died" and Johnson definitely doesn't deserve a 10/10, he's been far too lockdown heavy and lifted lockdown restrictions too late in the summer.

    Being better than others, doesn't mean you're perfect by any means.
    Johnson isn't better than others. At best we are middling. The idea we are the best, or better than anyone else is absurd and you look ridiculous for such a POV
    First in the world for vaccines being rolled out.
    First in the world of major nations for vaccines being rolled out.
    One of the only developed nations to lift all restrictions in the summer.

    How the fuck is first "middling"? Don't be ridiculous, there is nothing "middling" about first. 🙄
    We are decidedly middling, at best, in respect of the death rate from Covid, however one chooses to measure it. Arguably, for an advanced country such as ours the death rate is disappointing. For many, this is a more important metric than those you cite. Of course, the death rate is provisional - as is all the other data.
    I have no idea why anyone would prioritise the death rate from Covid as a more important metric than the speed of rolling out vaccines.

    Deaths are natural, vaccines are human. The latter is far more consequential.
    Well that's your POV and that's how you differ from some of us. I think it's a moral disgrace how many people have died unnecessarily during COVID, much of that due to our inaction here in this country. NZ have done a much better job at preventing death, as have many others.

    You don't prioritise that as a mark of success but I do.
    You have your priorities, I have mine.

    In hindsight I think we'd have been better doing the Swedish model and having no restrictions even pre-vaccines. I accepted lockdown as a necessary evil pre-vaccines and in hindsight I think I was wrong to do so.

    NZ have had people unable to travel for years. There will be plenty who've died in NZ from natural causes having been cut off from their family for their final two years of their lives.

    Are their deaths less "worthy" than Covid deaths to be counted?
    If you can provide evidence more people have died in NZ due to lack of travel than have been prevented by this policy, I would like to see it. I don't know what a good number would be - but many thousands would have needed to die for the policy not to be worth it.

    I think the Swedish model was a disaster, with even the architect of it saying it was wrong.
    I didn't say that more people died due to lack of travel, I said more people lost their final years of lives due to the restrictions. The two points are very different.

    About 35k people die naturally in NZ annually anyway. So about 70k have died in 2 years having lost their final years cut off from family and loved ones. Those 70k who've died naturally aren't going to be brought back to life to see their loved ones again when the restrictions are lifted.

    Yet if you check the "death" charts shared by Covid obsessives then 50 people have died in New Zealand apparently.

    50 really? What happened to the other approximately 69,950 that have either been buried or cremated?
    In what way have people in NZ been "cut off"?
    Most of the time life has gone on there as normal.
    They've had a much shorter lockdown period than us.
    One of the stories of the pandemic that I found most strange was when the England women's cricket team went on a tour of New Zealand last winter. In an interview a couple of the players talked about how much they were enjoying being able to do normal things without any of the Covid rules back in England, after they'd been through the quarantine period.

    It was very odd to have previously normal things described as unusual treats. We have had a very weird couple of years.
    Yes. I recall watching weekly Rugby games from NZ and Oz played to packed stadiums when we didn't even have any sport at all.
    The idea they've simply locked everyone up is bizarre and false. They've taken quarantine Uber seriously, and traced and not been afraid to lockdown severely to stamp out tiny, by our standards, outbreaks.
    The rest of the time they've had full freedom to do whatever.
    It is fair to say they had long periods in very strict lockdown e.g.

    New Zealand’s biggest city ends its 107-day lockdown.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/world/asia/new-zealand-auckland-lockdown.html
    Yes. But they haven't been locked up nationwide for 2 years as BR implies.
    I never said that, I think you've misunderstood me. To be clear, that's not what I was claiming.
    You were claiming 70 k New Zealanders died without being able to see loved ones.
    That was untrue. You rowed that back to overseas relatives.
    Does every single New Zealander have an overseas relative who would expect to normally be at their deathbed?
    If not then you are spouting bollocks.
    For most of the pandemic, most of New Zealand has had fewer restrictions than us.
    And infinitesimally fewer deaths.
    And no. They aren't comparable countries.
    No that's not what I'm saying at all, you've completely misunderstood me.

    I was not rating NZ versus Britain at all as I think that's completely stupid; one is a tiny unpopulated pair of islands thousands of miles from any other countries, with all food etc brought in via air or sea, and with a population density of 18 per square km. The other is a densely populated island connected via tunnel to its neighbours, with tens of thousands of lorries coming in and out of the country daily and a population density in England of ~460 per square km. Only a fool would contrast NZ with the UK, you may as well compare Venus to Pluto.

    I'm saying that approximately 70k people have died in the past two years in NZ. That's a matter of record. Many (I don't know how many) isolated from loved ones, as we all have been around the world. Yet the "death" figures shared don't record those deaths. That's not a problem unique to NZ, its a problem in the UK and every other country too.
  • Hugh Jackman has revealed that he has tested positive for COVID-19 thus will be unable to perform on Broadway play The Music Man for the time being.

    Some people got a lucky escape.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    kamski said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Omicron looks safeish with vaccination. 512 kids hospitalised on boxing day isn't great though, the JCVI should approve for all 5-11 >.>

    But JCVI are using a model that says that nearly no children will get COVID. Why is reality wrong, again?
    I suspect too many on the jcvi are very cautious about causing harm via vaccination, and some are still hung up on getting world vaccination done rather than more in the U.K. This is despite the abundance of vaccines now, so supply is surely not limited.
    One interesting thing is that vaccinated people also are not dying so fast of non-covid disease. Take that antivaxxers!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1475827926235062277?t=aBlC3Rbe_QiXyoOR3vbFzQ&s=19

    I think that I have said all along that European countries will be much of a muchness in terms of total outcomes once this is all over.

    I think there will be some variation, but you then have to start accounting for so many differing factors. Germany has done better, but certainly difficult to now call it a success.

    The real important questions are not really did this country do slightly better than another, its what worked and what didn't. Why did Germany do better than the UK for instance, we have some ideas in terms of how hospitals function / capacity, but were there other things? And what didn't work. And most importantly how to prepare best for the future.
    Germany has 4 times as many ICU beds per capita than us.

    Incidentally, I walked home from the match past the LRI casualty. 25 Ambulances on the forecourt with lights on. This means they are unable to unload. Looks like it will be very busy when I go back tomorrow.
    I'd take 4x with a massive pinch of salt.

    I think it's true that there was often, especially early on, a tendency to admit patients earlier, with milder symptoms in Germany, which probably had some effect. And was partly due to less concern about running out of beds.
    I was wrong. Germany has 5 times as many...


  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088
    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Omicron looks safeish with vaccination. 512 kids hospitalised on boxing day isn't great though, the JCVI should approve for all 5-11 >.>

    But JCVI are using a model that says that nearly no children will get COVID. Why is reality wrong, again?
    I suspect too many on the jcvi are very cautious about causing harm via vaccination, and some are still hung up on getting world vaccination done rather than more in the U.K. This is despite the abundance of vaccines now, so supply is surely not limited.
    One interesting thing is that vaccinated people also are not dying so fast of non-covid disease. Take that antivaxxers!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1475827926235062277?t=aBlC3Rbe_QiXyoOR3vbFzQ&s=19

    I think that I have said all along that European countries will be much of a muchness in terms of total outcomes once this is all over.

    I think there will be some variation, but you then have to start accounting for so many differing factors. Germany has done better, but certainly difficult to now call it a success.

    The real important questions are not really did this country do slightly better than another, its what worked and what didn't. Why did Germany do better than the UK for instance, we have some ideas in terms of how hospitals function / capacity, but were there other things? And what didn't work. And most importantly how to prepare best for the future.
    Germany has 4 times as many ICU beds per capita than us.

    Incidentally, I walked home from the match past the LRI casualty. 25 Ambulances on the forecourt with lights on. This means they are unable to unload. Looks like it will be very busy when I go back tomorrow.
    I'd take 4x with a massive pinch of salt.

    I think it's true that there was often, especially early on, a tendency to admit patients earlier, with milder symptoms in Germany, which probably had some effect. And was partly due to less concern about running out of beds.
    I have said this before, and no idea what the advice in other countries has been....but I wonder how many lives would have been saved if the advice had been to everybody if you test positive for covid check you oxygen sat levels and if they drop immediately go to hospital regardless of how you feel.

    It seems shocking even 2 years into this there doesn't seem any coherent advice of how to manage your progress through COVID and when to decide you need to pull the emergency cord.
    Yes people are still showing up to hospital several days too late. Also here in Germany.
    The failure to inform people of the value of pulse oximeters - widely available from Amazon for about £15 and therefore readily affordable for the vast majority of households - is so strange as to appear either to be the result of gross negligence, or a deliberate decision to try to keep that fraction of patients who suffer this complication, but get over it without knowing it's happened (I'm assuming that there probably are some,) away from the hospitals. Perhaps this will be revealed as item number 764 on the list of issues to be resolved by the public inquiry, I don't know...?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021
    pigeon said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Omicron looks safeish with vaccination. 512 kids hospitalised on boxing day isn't great though, the JCVI should approve for all 5-11 >.>

    But JCVI are using a model that says that nearly no children will get COVID. Why is reality wrong, again?
    I suspect too many on the jcvi are very cautious about causing harm via vaccination, and some are still hung up on getting world vaccination done rather than more in the U.K. This is despite the abundance of vaccines now, so supply is surely not limited.
    One interesting thing is that vaccinated people also are not dying so fast of non-covid disease. Take that antivaxxers!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1475827926235062277?t=aBlC3Rbe_QiXyoOR3vbFzQ&s=19

    I think that I have said all along that European countries will be much of a muchness in terms of total outcomes once this is all over.

    I think there will be some variation, but you then have to start accounting for so many differing factors. Germany has done better, but certainly difficult to now call it a success.

    The real important questions are not really did this country do slightly better than another, its what worked and what didn't. Why did Germany do better than the UK for instance, we have some ideas in terms of how hospitals function / capacity, but were there other things? And what didn't work. And most importantly how to prepare best for the future.
    Germany has 4 times as many ICU beds per capita than us.

    Incidentally, I walked home from the match past the LRI casualty. 25 Ambulances on the forecourt with lights on. This means they are unable to unload. Looks like it will be very busy when I go back tomorrow.
    I'd take 4x with a massive pinch of salt.

    I think it's true that there was often, especially early on, a tendency to admit patients earlier, with milder symptoms in Germany, which probably had some effect. And was partly due to less concern about running out of beds.
    I have said this before, and no idea what the advice in other countries has been....but I wonder how many lives would have been saved if the advice had been to everybody if you test positive for covid check you oxygen sat levels and if they drop immediately go to hospital regardless of how you feel.

    It seems shocking even 2 years into this there doesn't seem any coherent advice of how to manage your progress through COVID and when to decide you need to pull the emergency cord.
    Yes people are still showing up to hospital several days too late. Also here in Germany.
    The failure to inform people of the value of pulse oximeters - widely available from Amazon for about £15 and therefore readily affordable for the vast majority of households - is so strange as to appear either to be the result of gross negligence, or a deliberate decision to try to keep that fraction of patients who suffer this complication, but get over it without knowing it's happened (I'm assuming that there probably are some,) away from the hospitals. Perhaps this will be revealed as item number 764 on the list of issues to be resolved by the public inquiry, I don't know...?
    I have a feeling we will never get to the nuts of bolts of stuff like this, instead it will be loads of stupid political arguments, point scoring and arse covering.

    Which of all of those involve who all had a chance to convey this information are going to pop up and say well actually we could have saved 10,000 lives if we had just said this rather than wash your hands....
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    kamski said:

    Endillion said:

    pigeon said:

    Charles said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    The Uk is somewhere in the middle
    Cumulative per capita Covid deaths per million (source: ourworldindata)

    I've listed a selection. We may anticipate that some states, e.g. the Russians, are under-reporting, but it should be fairly accurate for most developed nations:

    Peru: 6,071
    Hungary: 4,021
    Romania: 3,062
    Brazil: 2,892
    Poland: 2,497
    United States: 2,458
    Belgium: 2,426
    Italy: 2,265
    United Kingdom: 2,172
    Russia: 2,050
    EU average: 2,003
    Spain: 1,907
    France: 1,820
    South Africa: 1,513
    Germany: 1,321
    Netherlands: 1,211
    Canada: 794
    Denmark: 553
    Australia: 85
    New Zealand: 10

    Thus we're doing a little worse than the EU average, a little better than the Americans, Belgians and Italians, a little worse than the French and Spanish, and substantially worse than the Germans, Dutch and Canadians. The UK's performance in terms of Covid deaths might be summarised as fairly poor, but not a huge outlier from its peer group. There are plenty of nations for whom suppression hasn't worked terribly well, through poor application laced with varying degrees of bad luck.
    We'll probably end up better than the EU average once the Omicron wave is all done. France and Spain are likely to overtake us, as they have similar 1st and 2nd dose vaccination rates, are quite a way behind on boosters, and have less natural immunity from infections. We might already be ahead of the EU average, if you adjusted for demographics and co-morbidities.
    Isn't the UK a bit younger than the EU?
    Slightly, but fewer ethnic minorities (the two factors are not independent).
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,156
    edited December 2021

    pigeon said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Omicron looks safeish with vaccination. 512 kids hospitalised on boxing day isn't great though, the JCVI should approve for all 5-11 >.>

    But JCVI are using a model that says that nearly no children will get COVID. Why is reality wrong, again?
    I suspect too many on the jcvi are very cautious about causing harm via vaccination, and some are still hung up on getting world vaccination done rather than more in the U.K. This is despite the abundance of vaccines now, so supply is surely not limited.
    One interesting thing is that vaccinated people also are not dying so fast of non-covid disease. Take that antivaxxers!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1475827926235062277?t=aBlC3Rbe_QiXyoOR3vbFzQ&s=19

    I think that I have said all along that European countries will be much of a muchness in terms of total outcomes once this is all over.

    I think there will be some variation, but you then have to start accounting for so many differing factors. Germany has done better, but certainly difficult to now call it a success.

    The real important questions are not really did this country do slightly better than another, its what worked and what didn't. Why did Germany do better than the UK for instance, we have some ideas in terms of how hospitals function / capacity, but were there other things? And what didn't work. And most importantly how to prepare best for the future.
    Germany has 4 times as many ICU beds per capita than us.

    Incidentally, I walked home from the match past the LRI casualty. 25 Ambulances on the forecourt with lights on. This means they are unable to unload. Looks like it will be very busy when I go back tomorrow.
    I'd take 4x with a massive pinch of salt.

    I think it's true that there was often, especially early on, a tendency to admit patients earlier, with milder symptoms in Germany, which probably had some effect. And was partly due to less concern about running out of beds.
    I have said this before, and no idea what the advice in other countries has been....but I wonder how many lives would have been saved if the advice had been to everybody if you test positive for covid check you oxygen sat levels and if they drop immediately go to hospital regardless of how you feel.

    It seems shocking even 2 years into this there doesn't seem any coherent advice of how to manage your progress through COVID and when to decide you need to pull the emergency cord.
    Yes people are still showing up to hospital several days too late. Also here in Germany.
    The failure to inform people of the value of pulse oximeters - widely available from Amazon for about £15 and therefore readily affordable for the vast majority of households - is so strange as to appear either to be the result of gross negligence, or a deliberate decision to try to keep that fraction of patients who suffer this complication, but get over it without knowing it's happened (I'm assuming that there probably are some,) away from the hospitals. Perhaps this will be revealed as item number 764 on the list of issues to be resolved by the public inquiry, I don't know...?
    I have a feeling we will never get to the nuts of bolts of stuff like this, instead it will be loads of stupid political arguments, point scoring and arse covering.

    Which of all of those involve who all had a chance to convey this information are going to pop up and say well actually we could have saved 10,000 lives if we had just said this rather than wash your hands....
    Indeed.

    The problem with any report like this is that people are more interested in their own agenda than anything else.

    Half the people involved will by trying to defend and justify themselves, while the other half will be trying to 'get' their opponents.

    Trying to 'learn lessons' will be entirely incidental.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,786
    pigeon said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Omicron looks safeish with vaccination. 512 kids hospitalised on boxing day isn't great though, the JCVI should approve for all 5-11 >.>

    But JCVI are using a model that says that nearly no children will get COVID. Why is reality wrong, again?
    I suspect too many on the jcvi are very cautious about causing harm via vaccination, and some are still hung up on getting world vaccination done rather than more in the U.K. This is despite the abundance of vaccines now, so supply is surely not limited.
    One interesting thing is that vaccinated people also are not dying so fast of non-covid disease. Take that antivaxxers!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1475827926235062277?t=aBlC3Rbe_QiXyoOR3vbFzQ&s=19

    I think that I have said all along that European countries will be much of a muchness in terms of total outcomes once this is all over.

    I think there will be some variation, but you then have to start accounting for so many differing factors. Germany has done better, but certainly difficult to now call it a success.

    The real important questions are not really did this country do slightly better than another, its what worked and what didn't. Why did Germany do better than the UK for instance, we have some ideas in terms of how hospitals function / capacity, but were there other things? And what didn't work. And most importantly how to prepare best for the future.
    Germany has 4 times as many ICU beds per capita than us.

    Incidentally, I walked home from the match past the LRI casualty. 25 Ambulances on the forecourt with lights on. This means they are unable to unload. Looks like it will be very busy when I go back tomorrow.
    I'd take 4x with a massive pinch of salt.

    I think it's true that there was often, especially early on, a tendency to admit patients earlier, with milder symptoms in Germany, which probably had some effect. And was partly due to less concern about running out of beds.
    I have said this before, and no idea what the advice in other countries has been....but I wonder how many lives would have been saved if the advice had been to everybody if you test positive for covid check you oxygen sat levels and if they drop immediately go to hospital regardless of how you feel.

    It seems shocking even 2 years into this there doesn't seem any coherent advice of how to manage your progress through COVID and when to decide you need to pull the emergency cord.
    Yes people are still showing up to hospital several days too late. Also here in Germany.
    The failure to inform people of the value of pulse oximeters - widely available from Amazon for about £15 and therefore readily affordable for the vast majority of households - is so strange as to appear either to be the result of gross negligence, or a deliberate decision to try to keep that fraction of patients who suffer this complication, but get over it without knowing it's happened (I'm assuming that there probably are some,) away from the hospitals. Perhaps this will be revealed as item number 764 on the list of issues to be resolved by the public inquiry, I don't know...?
    They wouldn't be £15 for long if the gov suggested buying one.
  • dixiedean said:

    Sorry. I'm annoyed. You can criticise other country's responses. You can argue ours were better. Fine.
    But don't imply ours were motivated by the wisdom and compassion of a veritable Bodhisattva of a PM while others were merely monstrous cruelty.
    They were different choices with different trade offs. That's all.

    That is not remotely what I was saying.

    If you thought it was then I apologise I wasn't being clearer.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    dixiedean said:

    Sorry. I'm annoyed. You can criticise other country's responses. You can argue ours were better. Fine.
    But don't imply ours were motivated by the wisdom and compassion of a veritable Bodhisattva of a PM while others were merely monstrous cruelty.
    They were different choices with different trade offs. That's all.

    That is not remotely what I was saying.

    If you thought it was then I apologise I wasn't being clearer.
    Fair enough. I'm a little cranky about the virus tonight.
    For reasons not connected to you. You sometimes push my buttons.
    I also apologise. Peace my friend?
    And I really do have to say goodnight.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021
    Interesting Dr Foxy was saying well Germany has 4-5x ICU beds.....here a Scientific Director saying Germany should be more like the UK, because not enough nurses, each nurse has to care for 3 patients rather than 1 in the UK, and his solution is total reorganisation of the system, more nurses and LESS HOSPITALS!!!

    DW News - Omicron makes the job of healthcare workers even more demanding
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKTGcGxyLdg&

    I believe Sir Humphrey might call such a call brave.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    There's much, much more to the pandemic than how many people "died" and Johnson definitely doesn't deserve a 10/10, he's been far too lockdown heavy and lifted lockdown restrictions too late in the summer.

    Being better than others, doesn't mean you're perfect by any means.
    Johnson isn't better than others. At best we are middling. The idea we are the best, or better than anyone else is absurd and you look ridiculous for such a POV
    First in the world for vaccines being rolled out.
    First in the world of major nations for vaccines being rolled out.
    One of the only developed nations to lift all restrictions in the summer.

    How the fuck is first "middling"? Don't be ridiculous, there is nothing "middling" about first. 🙄
    We've done fine, but I'd struggle to give us better than a 6/10.

    In terms of economic hit, we've done better than Spain, Greece or Italy (tourism focused economies), but worse than most of Asia, North America, Scandinavia or Germany. GDP and employment have tracked roughly the same as France, with a worse excess mortality rate (but fewer ongoing restrictions).

    We've been world leading terms of vaccine and booster roll out - albeit that means we're only about a month ahead of most our European peers (although a long way ahead of the US). We've also done so without some of the more extreme curtailments of civil liberties, which is to our credit.

    Being critical, I think the UK could removed a lot more restrictions earlier in 2021. As other countries showed, as the weather warms and people spend more time outside, you simply don't need many restrictions.

    I also think there was poor risk segmentation and the country did a very poor job with track-and-trace. Denmark did a really good job here: much better technology, and systems that continually improved.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    rcs1000 said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    There's much, much more to the pandemic than how many people "died" and Johnson definitely doesn't deserve a 10/10, he's been far too lockdown heavy and lifted lockdown restrictions too late in the summer.

    Being better than others, doesn't mean you're perfect by any means.
    Johnson isn't better than others. At best we are middling. The idea we are the best, or better than anyone else is absurd and you look ridiculous for such a POV
    First in the world for vaccines being rolled out.
    First in the world of major nations for vaccines being rolled out.
    One of the only developed nations to lift all restrictions in the summer.

    How the fuck is first "middling"? Don't be ridiculous, there is nothing "middling" about first. 🙄
    We've done fine, but I'd struggle to give us better than a 6/10.

    In terms of economic hit, we've done better than Spain, Greece or Italy (tourism focused economies), but worse than most of Asia, North America, Scandinavia or Germany. GDP and employment have tracked roughly the same as France, with a worse excess mortality rate (but fewer ongoing restrictions).

    We've been world leading terms of vaccine and booster roll out - albeit that means we're only about a month ahead of most our European peers (although a long way ahead of the US). We've also done so without some of the more extreme curtailments of civil liberties, which is to our credit.

    Being critical, I think the UK could removed a lot more restrictions earlier in 2021. As other countries showed, as the weather warms and people spend more time outside, you simply don't need many restrictions.

    I also think there was poor risk segmentation and the country did a very poor job with track-and-trace. Denmark did a really good job here: much better technology, and systems that continually improved.
    To add to this, we've prevaricated on 12-17 year olds, and on 5-12 year olds. Which is bonkers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Morning all. Well, we can add my brother and his wife to the Covid stats. Thankfully they’re vaccinated and seem okay so far.

    By total co-incidence, my brother was at the darts last week…
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited December 2021

    pigeon said:

    Charles said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    The Uk is somewhere in the middle
    Cumulative per capita Covid deaths per million (source: ourworldindata)

    I've listed a selection. We may anticipate that some states, e.g. the Russians, are under-reporting, but it should be fairly accurate for most developed nations:

    Peru: 6,071
    Hungary: 4,021
    Romania: 3,062
    Brazil: 2,892
    Poland: 2,497
    United States: 2,458
    Belgium: 2,426
    Italy: 2,265
    United Kingdom: 2,172
    Russia: 2,050
    EU average: 2,003
    Spain: 1,907
    France: 1,820
    South Africa: 1,513
    Germany: 1,321
    Netherlands: 1,211
    Canada: 794
    Denmark: 553
    Australia: 85
    New Zealand: 10

    Thus we're doing a little worse than the EU average, a little better than the Americans, Belgians and Italians, a little worse than the French and Spanish, and substantially worse than the Germans, Dutch and Canadians. The UK's performance in terms of Covid deaths might be summarised as fairly poor, but not a huge outlier from its peer group. There are plenty of nations for whom suppression hasn't worked terribly well, through poor application laced with varying degrees of bad luck.
    That is not a reliable list. Russia doing slightly better than the UK? I don't think so.

    The Economist's excess deaths table is much more meaningful, I suspect.

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
    Wow around April or so when I last regularly looked at this chart the UK and USA were about the same in excess deaths (about 200).

    Since then the UK hasn't really changed but the USA has gone up by a further 50% and has now surpassed a million excess deaths.

    Just goes to show what a difference having antivaxxers there has made. In a close race this seriously could impact the next Presidential election, there's potentially hundreds of thousands of erstwhile Trump voters who've died because they rejected the vaccine.
    It depends whether they really are more likely to be Trump voters. In this country most of the anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Labour voters. It's possible the same dynamic is taking place in the US.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. Well, we can add my brother and his wife to the Covid stats. Thankfully they’re vaccinated and seem okay so far.

    By total co-incidence, my brother was at the darts last week…

    Did he stand up?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Andy_JS said:

    pigeon said:

    Charles said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    The Uk is somewhere in the middle
    Cumulative per capita Covid deaths per million (source: ourworldindata)

    I've listed a selection. We may anticipate that some states, e.g. the Russians, are under-reporting, but it should be fairly accurate for most developed nations:

    Peru: 6,071
    Hungary: 4,021
    Romania: 3,062
    Brazil: 2,892
    Poland: 2,497
    United States: 2,458
    Belgium: 2,426
    Italy: 2,265
    United Kingdom: 2,172
    Russia: 2,050
    EU average: 2,003
    Spain: 1,907
    France: 1,820
    South Africa: 1,513
    Germany: 1,321
    Netherlands: 1,211
    Canada: 794
    Denmark: 553
    Australia: 85
    New Zealand: 10

    Thus we're doing a little worse than the EU average, a little better than the Americans, Belgians and Italians, a little worse than the French and Spanish, and substantially worse than the Germans, Dutch and Canadians. The UK's performance in terms of Covid deaths might be summarised as fairly poor, but not a huge outlier from its peer group. There are plenty of nations for whom suppression hasn't worked terribly well, through poor application laced with varying degrees of bad luck.
    That is not a reliable list. Russia doing slightly better than the UK? I don't think so.

    The Economist's excess deaths table is much more meaningful, I suspect.

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
    Wow around April or so when I last regularly looked at this chart the UK and USA were about the same in excess deaths (about 200).

    Since then the UK hasn't really changed but the USA has gone up by a further 50% and has now surpassed a million excess deaths.

    Just goes to show what a difference having antivaxxers there has made. In a close race this seriously could impact the next Presidential election, there's potentially hundreds of thousands of erstwhile Trump voters who've died because they rejected the vaccine.
    It depends whether they really are more likely to be Trump voters. In this country most of the anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Labour voters. It's possible the same dynamic is taking place in the US.
    There's a very clear correlation between Trump voting counties, vaccine scepticism, and Covid deaths. See: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/12/05/1059828993/data-vaccine-misinformation-trump-counties-covid-death-rate

    And let's not forget, Trump was booed at one of his own rallies for telling people to take the vaccines: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-booed-alabama-rally-after-telling-supporters-get-vaccinated-n1277404

    And this was not an isolated incident. After he told his supporters he got the booster, he was also booed: https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/20/politics/donald-trump-booster-shot-boos/index.html

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,099
    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. Well, we can add my brother and his wife to the Covid stats. Thankfully they’re vaccinated and seem okay so far.

    By total co-incidence, my brother was at the darts last week…

    Sorry to hear this and hope they are okay and get better quickly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited December 2021
    pigeon said:

    The Rubicon is crossed.

    Quebec’s health minister Christian Dubé has announced some health care workers who have tested positive for Covid-19 will continue working.

    The second most populous Canadian province has “no choice” but to allow some Covid infected essential workers to continue working to prevent staff shortages from impeding its healthcare services, Dubé told reporters at a briefing today.

    “Omicron’s contagion is so exponential, that a huge number of personnel have to be withdrawn – and that poses a risk to the network capacity to treat Quebecers,” he said.

    “We made the decision that under a certain condition positive staff will be able to continue working according to a list of priority and risk management,” he said, adding that more information would be provided in the coming days.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/dec/28/covid-live-news-travel-chaos-as-3500-more-flights-suspended-fresh-curbs-in-france

    They're unlikely to be the last to buckle, alas. Enough self-isolations impacting any critical sector at once and derogation will become necessary. It might happen here, depending on how things go.

    Scotland has beaten them to it, although as yet the guidance hasn’t had to be applied:

    https://www.tes.com/magazine/news/general/new-covid-safety-guidance-scottish-schools

    This will inevitably happen in schools and hospitals if omicron really is this infectious and at the same time fairly mild. There won’t be a choice.

    What will be a difficult call is whether delivery drivers should be exempt. While they are unlikely to spread the virus, even if they are officially asymptomatic will they be well enough to drive a large vehicle safely?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    dixiedean said:

    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    There's much, much more to the pandemic than how many people "died" and Johnson definitely doesn't deserve a 10/10, he's been far too lockdown heavy and lifted lockdown restrictions too late in the summer.

    Being better than others, doesn't mean you're perfect by any means.
    Johnson isn't better than others. At best we are middling. The idea we are the best, or better than anyone else is absurd and you look ridiculous for such a POV
    First in the world for vaccines being rolled out.
    First in the world of major nations for vaccines being rolled out.
    One of the only developed nations to lift all restrictions in the summer.

    How the fuck is first "middling"? Don't be ridiculous, there is nothing "middling" about first. 🙄
    We are decidedly middling, at best, in respect of the death rate from Covid, however one chooses to measure it. Arguably, for an advanced country such as ours the death rate is disappointing. For many, this is a more important metric than those you cite. Of course, the death rate is provisional - as is all the other data.
    I have no idea why anyone would prioritise the death rate from Covid as a more important metric than the speed of rolling out vaccines.

    Deaths are natural, vaccines are human. The latter is far more consequential.
    Well that's your POV and that's how you differ from some of us. I think it's a moral disgrace how many people have died unnecessarily during COVID, much of that due to our inaction here in this country. NZ have done a much better job at preventing death, as have many others.

    You don't prioritise that as a mark of success but I do.
    You have your priorities, I have mine.

    In hindsight I think we'd have been better doing the Swedish model and having no restrictions even pre-vaccines. I accepted lockdown as a necessary evil pre-vaccines and in hindsight I think I was wrong to do so.

    NZ have had people unable to travel for years. There will be plenty who've died in NZ from natural causes having been cut off from their family for their final two years of their lives.

    Are their deaths less "worthy" than Covid deaths to be counted?
    If you can provide evidence more people have died in NZ due to lack of travel than have been prevented by this policy, I would like to see it. I don't know what a good number would be - but many thousands would have needed to die for the policy not to be worth it.

    I think the Swedish model was a disaster, with even the architect of it saying it was wrong.
    I didn't say that more people died due to lack of travel, I said more people lost their final years of lives due to the restrictions. The two points are very different.

    About 35k people die naturally in NZ annually anyway. So about 70k have died in 2 years having lost their final years cut off from family and loved ones. Those 70k who've died naturally aren't going to be brought back to life to see their loved ones again when the restrictions are lifted.

    Yet if you check the "death" charts shared by Covid obsessives then 50 people have died in New Zealand apparently.

    50 really? What happened to the other approximately 69,950 that have either been buried or cremated?
    In what way have people in NZ been "cut off"?
    Most of the time life has gone on there as normal.
    They've had a much shorter lockdown period than us.
    NZ has done extremely well overall, but arguments about it are ultimately pointless given its unusual situation. It's in the middle of a vast ocean, 1,500 miles from anywhere, and all goods and people that come into and out of the country transit by sea and air. Sealing itself off behind travel bans and quarantine hotels was very painful (ask all the Kiwis exiled overseas about that) but it was also achievable practically. Britain, still less France or Austria or any number of other countries, didn't have that extreme option available.
    I understand that. We couldn't have been NZ even if we'd wanted too.
    But the way BR was talking they've been imprisoned unable to see dying relatives for two years continuously.
    They haven't. They've had much longer periods of total internal freedom than we have.
    We should have closed our international borders immediately in the same way that NZ and Australia did. We were in the ridiculous situation of locking down the domestic population while flights from China, Italy and elsewhere were still arriving in the country every day.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Omicron looks safeish with vaccination. 512 kids hospitalised on boxing day isn't great though, the JCVI should approve for all 5-11 >.>

    But JCVI are using a model that says that nearly no children will get COVID. Why is reality wrong, again?
    I suspect too many on the jcvi are very cautious about causing harm via vaccination, and some are still hung up on getting world vaccination done rather than more in the U.K. This is despite the abundance of vaccines now, so supply is surely not limited.
    One interesting thing is that vaccinated people also are not dying so fast of non-covid disease. Take that antivaxxers!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1475827926235062277?t=aBlC3Rbe_QiXyoOR3vbFzQ&s=19

    I think that I have said all along that European countries will be much of a muchness in terms of total outcomes once this is all over.

    I think there will be some variation, but you then have to start accounting for so many differing factors. Germany has done better, but certainly difficult to now call it a success.

    The real important questions are not really did this country do slightly better than another, its what worked and what didn't. Why did Germany do better than the UK for instance, we have some ideas in terms of how hospitals function / capacity, but were there other things? And what didn't work. And most importantly how to prepare best for the future.
    Yes, the primary task of the enquiry needs to be what worked and what didn’t. Sadly, I fear it will turn into a political exercise, with people motivated primarily by being seen to cover their arse, than to assist with preparing for the next pandemic.

    I would get someone with experience in the AAIB or RIAB to run it, rather than a judge.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, hope they get well soon.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,099
    rcs1000 said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    There's much, much more to the pandemic than how many people "died" and Johnson definitely doesn't deserve a 10/10, he's been far too lockdown heavy and lifted lockdown restrictions too late in the summer.

    Being better than others, doesn't mean you're perfect by any means.
    Johnson isn't better than others. At best we are middling. The idea we are the best, or better than anyone else is absurd and you look ridiculous for such a POV
    First in the world for vaccines being rolled out.
    First in the world of major nations for vaccines being rolled out.
    One of the only developed nations to lift all restrictions in the summer.

    How the fuck is first "middling"? Don't be ridiculous, there is nothing "middling" about first. 🙄


    We've been world leading terms of vaccine and booster roll out - albeit that means we're only about a month ahead of most our European peers (although a long way ahead of the US). We've also done so without some of the more extreme curtailments of civil liberties, which is to our credit.
    No this is a Johnsonian myth. We did well early on, then lagged. And in particular we lagged on 1. child vaccinations and 2. boosters.

    Because every human being who breathes oxygen is a conduit for covid the only meaningful figure is doses per 100 people of population

    We're not "world leading". We're currently 14th. Not bad but nothing to crow about.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/


    In terms of cases and deaths we've also not fared brilliantly. Again, nothing to crow about and nothing to seize on as an example of a unique brilliance https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries



  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Interesting Dr Foxy was saying well Germany has 4-5x ICU beds.....here a Scientific Director saying Germany should be more like the UK, because not enough nurses, each nurse has to care for 3 patients rather than 1 in the UK, and his solution is total reorganisation of the system, more nurses and LESS HOSPITALS!!!

    DW News - Omicron makes the job of healthcare workers even more demanding
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKTGcGxyLdg&

    I believe Sir Humphrey might call such a call brave.

    Well, the grass is always greener ...

    But that's the problem with blindly using metrics such as 'beds'. You could have one critical care bed for every person in the country, and it doesn't do much good if you haven't got the associated machinery or staffing. Beds are just part of a system. and it may have made sense to use them as a metric in the past when there was less machinery and more flexibility wrt staffing, but things have moved on.

    I'd argue the Nightingale hospitals are a slightly different matter: in an emergency you can push boundaries for short periods; have more patients/beds per nurse - especially if they are in for a similar issue. But that sort of surge can probably only be maintained for short periods.

    Technology may help in the medium and long term, as better monitoring and treatments reduce the workload on nurses. But that's not now.

    (Obvs as you can see from the above, I don't work in healthcare...) ;)
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,099
    edited December 2021
    Bartholomew Roberts who presumably is Phillip Thompson is simply wrong to state that we are first (see my links below). We were quick on initial vaccines although Israel soon acted faster.

    We were very slow about boosters because Johnson did his usual dithering.

    We have been atrociously slow on child vaccinations.

    The UK's case rate and death rate has been pretty bad.

    And we're playing a risky game with cases at the moment simply because Johnson is too weak to stand up to the far right of his party.

    He will continue to pump the line (aka lie) that we're world beating but most people saw through his tricks some time ago.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Lots of talk of NZ. They have just announced someone had Omicron on Boxing Day and was in various locations including a nightclub.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-first-community-exposure-of-omicron-in-nz-confirmed-by-ministry-of-health/BT6J5E5L5RF6LOF4V3AGF3N6VM/

    We will now get to see what happens with Omicron in a well vaccinated population but with almost no immunity from previous infection. I don't believe they have done boosters yet.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Heathener said:

    Bartholomew Roberts who presumably is Phillip Thompson is simply wrong to state that we are first (see my links below). We were quick on initial vaccines although Israel soon acted faster.

    We were very slow about boosters because Johnson did his usual dithering.

    We have been atrociously slow on child vaccinations.

    The UK's case rate and death rate has been pretty bad.

    And we're playing a risky game with cases at the moment simply because Johnson is too weak to stand up to the far right of his party.

    He will continue to pump the line (aka lie) that we're world beating but most people saw through his tricks some time ago.

    Israel did a deal with Pfizer, where they got early supply in return for data. It was an unusual case, and a deal we probably would not have got give the size of our population. They did well, but were an unusual case.

    I might also point out that the deals we did for multiple vaccines in 2020 were very, very good. We took risks, and fortunately three of those turned out well.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    New Zealand was probably better than anywhere to see out the pandemic - provided everyone was inside the country to start with, and happy to stay there indefinitely.

    An awful lot of expatriate Kiwis had terrible experiences though - missing funerals, weddings, losing their jobs abroad, or completing their studies, and having to wait months to get home.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Sandpit said:

    New Zealand was probably better than anywhere to see out the pandemic - provided everyone was inside the country to start with, and happy to stay there indefinitely.

    An awful lot of expatriate Kiwis had terrible experiences though - missing funerals, weddings, losing their jobs abroad, or completing their studies, and having to wait months to get home.

    An acquaintance has a brother in Canada, who is married to a Chinese lass. His mother-in-law was visiting when the pandemic started in 2020, and has not been able to get back to China (as she needs the daughter to go with her for help). The M-i-L knows no English or French, and does not help with the kids.

    Talk about overstaying your welcome ...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    There's much, much more to the pandemic than how many people "died" and Johnson definitely doesn't deserve a 10/10, he's been far too lockdown heavy and lifted lockdown restrictions too late in the summer.

    Being better than others, doesn't mean you're perfect by any means.
    Johnson isn't better than others. At best we are middling. The idea we are the best, or better than anyone else is absurd and you look ridiculous for such a POV
    First in the world for vaccines being rolled out.
    First in the world of major nations for vaccines being rolled out.
    One of the only developed nations to lift all restrictions in the summer.

    How the fuck is first "middling"? Don't be ridiculous, there is nothing "middling" about first. 🙄
    We are decidedly middling, at best, in respect of the death rate from Covid, however one chooses to measure it. Arguably, for an advanced country such as ours the death rate is disappointing. For many, this is a more important metric than those you cite. Of course, the death rate is provisional - as is all the other data.
    I have no idea why anyone would prioritise the death rate from Covid as a more important metric than the speed of rolling out vaccines.

    Deaths are natural, vaccines are human. The latter is far more consequential.
    Well that's your POV and that's how you differ from some of us. I think it's a moral disgrace how many people have died unnecessarily during COVID, much of that due to our inaction here in this country. NZ have done a much better job at preventing death, as have many others.

    You don't prioritise that as a mark of success but I do.
    You have your priorities, I have mine.

    In hindsight I think we'd have been better doing the Swedish model and having no restrictions even pre-vaccines. I accepted lockdown as a necessary evil pre-vaccines and in hindsight I think I was wrong to do so.

    NZ have had people unable to travel for years. There will be plenty who've died in NZ from natural causes having been cut off from their family for their final two years of their lives.

    Are their deaths less "worthy" than Covid deaths to be counted?
    If you can provide evidence more people have died in NZ due to lack of travel than have been prevented by this policy, I would like to see it. I don't know what a good number would be - but many thousands would have needed to die for the policy not to be worth it.

    I think the Swedish model was a disaster, with even the architect of it saying it was wrong.
    I didn't say that more people died due to lack of travel, I said more people lost their final years of lives due to the restrictions. The two points are very different.

    About 35k people die naturally in NZ annually anyway. So about 70k have died in 2 years having lost their final years cut off from family and loved ones. Those 70k who've died naturally aren't going to be brought back to life to see their loved ones again when the restrictions are lifted.

    Yet if you check the "death" charts shared by Covid obsessives then 50 people have died in New Zealand apparently.

    50 really? What happened to the other approximately 69,950 that have either been buried or cremated?
    In what way have people in NZ been "cut off"?
    Most of the time life has gone on there as normal.
    They've had a much shorter lockdown period than us.
    NZ has done extremely well overall, but arguments about it are ultimately pointless given its unusual situation. It's in the middle of a vast ocean, 1,500 miles from anywhere, and all goods and people that come into and out of the country transit by sea and air. Sealing itself off behind travel bans and quarantine hotels was very painful (ask all the Kiwis exiled overseas about that) but it was also achievable practically. Britain, still less France or Austria or any number of other countries, didn't have that extreme option available.
    I understand that. We couldn't have been NZ even if we'd wanted too.
    But the way BR was talking they've been imprisoned unable to see dying relatives for two years continuously.
    They haven't. They've had much longer periods of total internal freedom than we have.
    We should have closed our international borders immediately in the same way that NZ and Australia did. We were in the ridiculous situation of locking down the domestic population while flights from China, Italy and elsewhere were still arriving in the country every day.
    We couldn't.

    Australia and New Zealand's trade goes through a small number of international ports. Containers are loaded and unloaded at these ports, and then are taken by Australian/New Zealander truck drivers.

    They are both also self sufficient in food, so a small amount of disruption in other things was not that important.

    The UK is part of Europe's road and rail network. Our food arrives (and our goods depart) on trucks. Those trucks are either manned by Brits who leave the UK to deliver British products abroad, or by foreigners who deliver foreign goods to UK consumers. Given we only produce around half of our food, we simply weren't going to be able to screen every driver coming into the country.

    If we had a few years notice, we could reorganise, and have TEUs deposited in giant car parks at Dover, and then picked up by British drivers. (And vice-versa.) But that would require a lot of time and planning.

    Once you've imported a dozen cases, then unless you are prepared to go all "Full Lockdown" it's over anyway. Some Australian cities had month (or longer) periods where you simply couldn't leave the house. And they could only do that because they had virtually no people crossing the border. It only takes one asymptomatic case, and suddenly Covid is out of control.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    AlistairM said:

    Lots of talk of NZ. They have just announced someone had Omicron on Boxing Day and was in various locations including a nightclub.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-first-community-exposure-of-omicron-in-nz-confirmed-by-ministry-of-health/BT6J5E5L5RF6LOF4V3AGF3N6VM/

    We will now get to see what happens with Omicron in a well vaccinated population but with almost no immunity from previous infection. I don't believe they have done boosters yet.

    That's true, but they have also only recently vaccinated the population, so they won't have too big a waning immunity problem.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    New Zealand was probably better than anywhere to see out the pandemic - provided everyone was inside the country to start with, and happy to stay there indefinitely.

    An awful lot of expatriate Kiwis had terrible experiences though - missing funerals, weddings, losing their jobs abroad, or completing their studies, and having to wait months to get home.

    An acquaintance has a brother in Canada, who is married to a Chinese lass. His mother-in-law was visiting when the pandemic started in 2020, and has not been able to get back to China (as she needs the daughter to go with her for help). The M-i-L knows no English or French, and does not help with the kids.

    Talk about overstaying your welcome ...
    Oh dear, but there will be millions of similar stories from around the world.

    I know of quite a few Kiwis in my part of the world who lost jobs and ended up sofa-surfing for months, often with families in tow. The ‘lucky’ redundancies were the airline pilots, who were allowed to stay in company housing until they could get out. One of my pilot friends went back to his native Canada in the summer, and has got a new job already for an expanding LoCo there.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    New Zealand was probably better than anywhere to see out the pandemic - provided everyone was inside the country to start with, and happy to stay there indefinitely.

    An awful lot of expatriate Kiwis had terrible experiences though - missing funerals, weddings, losing their jobs abroad, or completing their studies, and having to wait months to get home.

    An acquaintance has a brother in Canada, who is married to a Chinese lass. His mother-in-law was visiting when the pandemic started in 2020, and has not been able to get back to China (as she needs the daughter to go with her for help). The M-i-L knows no English or French, and does not help with the kids.

    Talk about overstaying your welcome ...
    Oh dear, but there will be millions of similar stories from around the world.

    I know of quite a few Kiwis in my part of the world who lost jobs and ended up sofa-surfing for months, often with families in tow. The ‘lucky’ redundancies were the airline pilots, who were allowed to stay in company housing until they could get out. One of my pilot friends went back to his native Canada in the summer, and has got a new job already for an expanding LoCo there.
    On holiday this year, I chatted to the family next to me on the beach. They were a couple in their early 30s, with a four/five year old. The mother (of Chinese origin) explained to me that she had another daughter and they'd been in holiday with the Grandmother in China just before Covid. They'd flown back to the US, and the grandmother and daughter were due to fly together a week later.

    Then the borders shut.

    And the mother couldn't go to China to pick up her daughter. And the grandmother couldn't fly the child to America.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    felix said:

    Heathener said:

    Bartholomew Roberts who presumably is Phillip Thompson is simply wrong to state that we are first (see my links below). We were quick on initial vaccines although Israel soon acted faster.

    We were very slow about boosters because Johnson did his usual dithering.

    We have been atrociously slow on child vaccinations.

    The UK's case rate and death rate has been pretty bad.

    And we're playing a risky game with cases at the moment simply because Johnson is too weak to stand up to the far right of his party.

    He will continue to pump the line (aka lie) that we're world beating but most people saw through his tricks some time ago.

    Maybe you should respect his wishes regarding name usage and focus on argument.
    It's fair enough about referring to him by his new name, but the poster has a rich posting history, and he has not recanted his previous posts. People should be free to refer to his previous posts and comment under his previous name.
  • Incoming!

    English soccer player Raheem Sterling MBE is guest editing R4 Today.

    Has central office put the muzzle on the dog-whistlers? Calling Franco’s tank commander.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Heathener said:

    Bartholomew Roberts who presumably is Phillip Thompson is simply wrong to state that we are first (see my links below). We were quick on initial vaccines although Israel soon acted faster.

    We were very slow about boosters because Johnson did his usual dithering.

    We have been atrociously slow on child vaccinations.

    The UK's case rate and death rate has been pretty bad.

    And we're playing a risky game with cases at the moment simply because Johnson is too weak to stand up to the far right of his party.

    He will continue to pump the line (aka lie) that we're world beating but most people saw through his tricks some time ago.

    We are ahead on boosters. We’ve done well relatively.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Countries that have been pursuing a zero covid policy are going to encounter problems when the omicron variant arrives, assuming they continue to insist on a zero covid policy.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sandpit said:

    New Zealand was probably better than anywhere to see out the pandemic - provided everyone was inside the country to start with, and happy to stay there indefinitely.

    An awful lot of expatriate Kiwis had terrible experiences though - missing funerals, weddings, losing their jobs abroad, or completing their studies, and having to wait months to get home.

    An acquaintance has a brother in Canada, who is married to a Chinese lass. His mother-in-law was visiting when the pandemic started in 2020, and has not been able to get back to China (as she needs the daughter to go with her for help). The M-i-L knows no English or French, and does not help with the kids.

    Talk about overstaying your welcome ...
    What’s Canada done about her tourist (I assume) visa?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Interesting Dr Foxy was saying well Germany has 4-5x ICU beds.....here a Scientific Director saying Germany should be more like the UK, because not enough nurses, each nurse has to care for 3 patients rather than 1 in the UK, and his solution is total reorganisation of the system, more nurses and LESS HOSPITALS!!!

    DW News - Omicron makes the job of healthcare workers even more demanding
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKTGcGxyLdg&

    I believe Sir Humphrey might call such a call brave.

    Well, the grass is always greener ...

    But that's the problem with blindly using metrics such as 'beds'. You could have one critical care bed for every person in the country, and it doesn't do much good if you haven't got the associated machinery or staffing. Beds are just part of a system. and it may have made sense to use them as a metric in the past when there was less machinery and more flexibility wrt staffing, but things have moved on.

    I'd argue the Nightingale hospitals are a slightly different matter: in an emergency you can push boundaries for short periods; have more patients/beds per nurse - especially if they are in for a similar issue. But that sort of surge can probably only be maintained for short periods.

    Technology may help in the medium and long term, as better monitoring and treatments reduce the workload on nurses. But that's not now.

    (Obvs as you can see from the above, I don't work in healthcare...) ;)
    1 ICU nurse per 2-3 patients is what we got to in Jan 2021. Ventilated patients have multiple complexities, but even those on CPAP need a lot of monitoring.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    New Zealand was probably better than anywhere to see out the pandemic - provided everyone was inside the country to start with, and happy to stay there indefinitely.

    An awful lot of expatriate Kiwis had terrible experiences though - missing funerals, weddings, losing their jobs abroad, or completing their studies, and having to wait months to get home.

    An acquaintance has a brother in Canada, who is married to a Chinese lass. His mother-in-law was visiting when the pandemic started in 2020, and has not been able to get back to China (as she needs the daughter to go with her for help). The M-i-L knows no English or French, and does not help with the kids.

    Talk about overstaying your welcome ...
    Oh dear, but there will be millions of similar stories from around the world.

    I know of quite a few Kiwis in my part of the world who lost jobs and ended up sofa-surfing for months, often with families in tow. The ‘lucky’ redundancies were the airline pilots, who were allowed to stay in company housing until they could get out. One of my pilot friends went back to his native Canada in the summer, and has got a new job already for an expanding LoCo there.
    On holiday this year, I chatted to the family next to me on the beach. They were a couple in their early 30s, with a four/five year old. The mother (of Chinese origin) explained to me that she had another daughter and they'd been in holiday with the Grandmother in China just before Covid. They'd flown back to the US, and the grandmother and daughter were due to fly together a week later.

    Then the borders shut.

    And the mother couldn't go to China to pick up her daughter. And the grandmother couldn't fly the child to America.
    Unaccompanied minor status exists for a reason
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    New Zealand was probably better than anywhere to see out the pandemic - provided everyone was inside the country to start with, and happy to stay there indefinitely.

    An awful lot of expatriate Kiwis had terrible experiences though - missing funerals, weddings, losing their jobs abroad, or completing their studies, and having to wait months to get home.

    An acquaintance has a brother in Canada, who is married to a Chinese lass. His mother-in-law was visiting when the pandemic started in 2020, and has not been able to get back to China (as she needs the daughter to go with her for help). The M-i-L knows no English or French, and does not help with the kids.

    Talk about overstaying your welcome ...
    What’s Canada done about her tourist (I assume) visa?
    That's a good question, and I've absolutely no idea - I can ask when I see him next at NY.

    I *assume* the Canadian authorities would be sensible about it. From a quick Google, you can restore your visitor status. IMV she has a good excuse.
    https://www.cic.gc.ca/english/helpcentre/answer.asp?qnum=1250
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    Is that the suggestion? No country has ‘got everything right’. I think on balance I’d rather have been in Germany for 2020 than most other Western European nations. I’d rather have been in England since July 2021. I think it’s possible that our open policy has been beneficial in the long term, as the unvaccinated have had their shot via the virus, not the needle, and other nations who succeeded in keeping the lid on Covid may pay a price now. It’s also possible that omicron may get them out of jail.
    Lots of unknowns.
    I don’t think anyone is giving Johnson 10 out of 10. But it’s reasonable to be in favour of the current stance against those who would bring in restrictions.
    Anyone giving him more than 1/10 is either stark raving mad or brain dead
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    New Zealand was probably better than anywhere to see out the pandemic - provided everyone was inside the country to start with, and happy to stay there indefinitely.

    An awful lot of expatriate Kiwis had terrible experiences though - missing funerals, weddings, losing their jobs abroad, or completing their studies, and having to wait months to get home.

    An acquaintance has a brother in Canada, who is married to a Chinese lass. His mother-in-law was visiting when the pandemic started in 2020, and has not been able to get back to China (as she needs the daughter to go with her for help). The M-i-L knows no English or French, and does not help with the kids.

    Talk about overstaying your welcome ...
    What’s Canada done about her tourist (I assume) visa?
    A lot of countries have ended up having to make ad hoc visa allowances. For us, we needed to apply for an I94 extension (because our visa only allowed us to stay two years in the US), but that the processing times were now close to a year.

    We applied before our existing I94 expired, but as it (still) hasn't been granted, my wife and children were committing a technical immigration offence. (Our lawyer said 'normally it would be an issue, but they're so backed up with I94s that they're just going to have to ignore it.')
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    New Zealand was probably better than anywhere to see out the pandemic - provided everyone was inside the country to start with, and happy to stay there indefinitely.

    An awful lot of expatriate Kiwis had terrible experiences though - missing funerals, weddings, losing their jobs abroad, or completing their studies, and having to wait months to get home.

    An acquaintance has a brother in Canada, who is married to a Chinese lass. His mother-in-law was visiting when the pandemic started in 2020, and has not been able to get back to China (as she needs the daughter to go with her for help). The M-i-L knows no English or French, and does not help with the kids.

    Talk about overstaying your welcome ...
    Oh dear, but there will be millions of similar stories from around the world.

    I know of quite a few Kiwis in my part of the world who lost jobs and ended up sofa-surfing for months, often with families in tow. The ‘lucky’ redundancies were the airline pilots, who were allowed to stay in company housing until they could get out. One of my pilot friends went back to his native Canada in the summer, and has got a new job already for an expanding LoCo there.
    On holiday this year, I chatted to the family next to me on the beach. They were a couple in their early 30s, with a four/five year old. The mother (of Chinese origin) explained to me that she had another daughter and they'd been in holiday with the Grandmother in China just before Covid. They'd flown back to the US, and the grandmother and daughter were due to fly together a week later.

    Then the borders shut.

    And the mother couldn't go to China to pick up her daughter. And the grandmother couldn't fly the child to America.
    Unaccompanied minor status exists for a reason
    It does. But the child was too young.

    It was a truly horrendous situation.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    malcolmg said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    Is that the suggestion? No country has ‘got everything right’. I think on balance I’d rather have been in Germany for 2020 than most other Western European nations. I’d rather have been in England since July 2021. I think it’s possible that our open policy has been beneficial in the long term, as the unvaccinated have had their shot via the virus, not the needle, and other nations who succeeded in keeping the lid on Covid may pay a price now. It’s also possible that omicron may get them out of jail.
    Lots of unknowns.
    I don’t think anyone is giving Johnson 10 out of 10. But it’s reasonable to be in favour of the current stance against those who would bring in restrictions.
    Anyone giving him more than 1/10 is either stark raving mad or brain dead
    Really?

    Early vaccines. Decent excess death performance. Decent civil liberties performance.

    Sure, there are things they could have done better, but no country is perfect.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    Andy_JS said:

    Countries that have been pursuing a zero covid policy are going to encounter problems when the omicron variant arrives, assuming they continue to insist on a zero covid policy.

    There’s been the odd post about China in the last week but not much. Does no one else think that’s going to be the major story of early 2022?

    The industrial disinfecting of city streets and air in Xian was so odd. We all know fresh air and surfaces are no risk, so why are they doing it? Bart said it was a good way of keeping people indoors. And that would be true in a country with a population that regularly laughs off what their government tell them to do. But a bit redundant in a city that already has tanks on the streets.

    Feels to me like the Party knows it has now probably lost control and they needed a highly visual meme for social media so that a) people in the rest of the country would become afraid again, b) no one could question they had not done everything possible.

    Which leaves us with two questions of note.
    1) by how much is omicron intrinsically less virulent than other strains?
    2) what protection against serious disease from omicron do their Mickey Mouse vaccines confer?

    China might be lucky and chart a safe passage through omicron’s choppy waters. But if it’s unlucky, we’re going to see a lengthy national lockdown (in the extreme sense of the word), and potentially scenes not dissimilar to Wuhan in multiple places at once.

    While the leadership deserve everything coming to them, the poor fuckers that live under them do not. So a troubling month ahead while we see which way it goes. Not least for what it might do to global markets, demand and inflation if it leads to the day of reckoning in their financial system.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    malcolmg said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    Is that the suggestion? No country has ‘got everything right’. I think on balance I’d rather have been in Germany for 2020 than most other Western European nations. I’d rather have been in England since July 2021. I think it’s possible that our open policy has been beneficial in the long term, as the unvaccinated have had their shot via the virus, not the needle, and other nations who succeeded in keeping the lid on Covid may pay a price now. It’s also possible that omicron may get them out of jail.
    Lots of unknowns.
    I don’t think anyone is giving Johnson 10 out of 10. But it’s reasonable to be in favour of the current stance against those who would bring in restrictions.
    Anyone giving him more than 1/10 is either stark raving mad or brain dead
    Really?

    Early vaccines. Decent excess death performance. Decent civil liberties performance.

    Sure, there are things they could have done better, but no country is perfect.
    The things you suggest get him to 6/10. But you forgot the -100 “because it’s England” adjustment which puts us bottom of the list in @malcolmg’s view
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    malcolmg said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    Is that the suggestion? No country has ‘got everything right’. I think on balance I’d rather have been in Germany for 2020 than most other Western European nations. I’d rather have been in England since July 2021. I think it’s possible that our open policy has been beneficial in the long term, as the unvaccinated have had their shot via the virus, not the needle, and other nations who succeeded in keeping the lid on Covid may pay a price now. It’s also possible that omicron may get them out of jail.
    Lots of unknowns.
    I don’t think anyone is giving Johnson 10 out of 10. But it’s reasonable to be in favour of the current stance against those who would bring in restrictions.
    Anyone giving him more than 1/10 is either stark raving mad or brain dead
    Really?

    Early vaccines. Decent excess death performance. Decent civil liberties performance.

    Sure, there are things they could have done better, but no country is perfect.
    The things you suggest get him to 6/10. But you forgot the -100 “because it’s England” adjustment which puts us bottom of the list in @malcolmg’s view
    That's uncharitable.

    He suggested a score of 1, not -94.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Countries that have been pursuing a zero covid policy are going to encounter problems when the omicron variant arrives, assuming they continue to insist on a zero covid policy.

    There’s been the odd post about China in the last week but not much. Does no one else think that’s going to be the major story of early 2022?

    The industrial disinfecting of city streets and air in Xian was so odd. We all know fresh air and surfaces are no risk, so why are they doing it? Bart said it was a good way of keeping people indoors. And that would be true in a country with a population that regularly laughs off what their government tell them to do. But a bit redundant in a city that already has tanks on the streets.

    Feels to me like the Party knows it has now probably lost control and they needed a highly visual meme for social media so that a) people in the rest of the country would become afraid again, b) no one could question they had not done everything possible.

    Which leaves us with two questions of note.
    1) by how much is omicron intrinsically less virulent than other strains?
    2) what protection against serious disease from omicron do their Mickey Mouse vaccines confer?

    China might be lucky and chart a safe passage through omicron’s choppy waters. But if it’s unlucky, we’re going to see a lengthy national lockdown (in the extreme sense of the word), and potentially scenes not dissimilar to Wuhan in multiple places at once.

    While the leadership deserve everything coming to them, the poor fuckers that live under them do not. So a troubling month ahead while we see which way it goes. Not least for what it might do to global markets, demand and inflation if it leads to the day of reckoning in their financial system.
    I don't think "no risk" is correct: I think it is merely that ventilation is x times more important. (Substitute your own value of x.)

    This may simply be a case of: we must do something; this is something; therefore we need to do this.

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Countries that have been pursuing a zero covid policy are going to encounter problems when the omicron variant arrives, assuming they continue to insist on a zero covid policy.

    There’s been the odd post about China in the last week but not much. Does no one else think that’s going to be the major story of early 2022?

    The industrial disinfecting of city streets and air in Xian was so odd. We all know fresh air and surfaces are no risk, so why are they doing it? Bart said it was a good way of keeping people indoors. And that would be true in a country with a population that regularly laughs off what their government tell them to do. But a bit redundant in a city that already has tanks on the streets.

    Feels to me like the Party knows it has now probably lost control and they needed a highly visual meme for social media so that a) people in the rest of the country would become afraid again, b) no one could question they had not done everything possible.

    Which leaves us with two questions of note.
    1) by how much is omicron intrinsically less virulent than other strains?
    2) what protection against serious disease from omicron do their Mickey Mouse vaccines confer?

    China might be lucky and chart a safe passage through omicron’s choppy waters. But if it’s unlucky, we’re going to see a lengthy national lockdown (in the extreme sense of the word), and potentially scenes not dissimilar to Wuhan in multiple places at once.

    While the leadership deserve everything coming to them, the poor fuckers that live under them do not. So a troubling month ahead while we see which way it goes. Not least for what it might do to global markets, demand and inflation if it leads to the day of reckoning in their financial system.
    I don't think "no risk" is correct: I think it is merely that ventilation is x times more important. (Substitute your own value of x.)

    This may simply be a case of: we must do something; this is something; therefore we need to do this.
    It's plain desperation. The municipal leadership must know what will happen to them if/when this doesn't work.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    pigeon said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    malcolmg said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    Is that the suggestion? No country has ‘got everything right’. I think on balance I’d rather have been in Germany for 2020 than most other Western European nations. I’d rather have been in England since July 2021. I think it’s possible that our open policy has been beneficial in the long term, as the unvaccinated have had their shot via the virus, not the needle, and other nations who succeeded in keeping the lid on Covid may pay a price now. It’s also possible that omicron may get them out of jail.
    Lots of unknowns.
    I don’t think anyone is giving Johnson 10 out of 10. But it’s reasonable to be in favour of the current stance against those who would bring in restrictions.
    Anyone giving him more than 1/10 is either stark raving mad or brain dead
    Really?

    Early vaccines. Decent excess death performance. Decent civil liberties performance.

    Sure, there are things they could have done better, but no country is perfect.
    The things you suggest get him to 6/10. But you forgot the -100 “because it’s England” adjustment which puts us bottom of the list in @malcolmg’s view
    That's uncharitable.

    He suggested a score of 1, not -94.
    @malcolmg secretly believes Boris has done a fantastic job but can’t admit it to himself or the world…

    😂
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Countries that have been pursuing a zero covid policy are going to encounter problems when the omicron variant arrives, assuming they continue to insist on a zero covid policy.

    There’s been the odd post about China in the last week but not much. Does no one else think that’s going to be the major story of early 2022?

    The industrial disinfecting of city streets and air in Xian was so odd. We all know fresh air and surfaces are no risk, so why are they doing it? Bart said it was a good way of keeping people indoors. And that would be true in a country with a population that regularly laughs off what their government tell them to do. But a bit redundant in a city that already has tanks on the streets.

    Feels to me like the Party knows it has now probably lost control and they needed a highly visual meme for social media so that a) people in the rest of the country would become afraid again, b) no one could question they had not done everything possible.

    Which leaves us with two questions of note.
    1) by how much is omicron intrinsically less virulent than other strains?
    2) what protection against serious disease from omicron do their Mickey Mouse vaccines confer?

    China might be lucky and chart a safe passage through omicron’s choppy waters. But if it’s unlucky, we’re going to see a lengthy national lockdown (in the extreme sense of the word), and potentially scenes not dissimilar to Wuhan in multiple places at once.

    While the leadership deserve everything coming to them, the poor fuckers that live under them do not. So a troubling month ahead while we see which way it goes. Not least for what it might do to global markets, demand and inflation if it leads to the day of reckoning in their financial system.
    I don't think "no risk" is correct: I think it is merely that ventilation is x times more important. (Substitute your own value of x.)

    This may simply be a case of: we must do something; this is something; therefore we need to do this.
    It's plain desperation. The municipal leadership must know what will happen to them if/when this doesn't work.
    Especially when you overlay the Winter Olympics. How miserable to be the one left holding the baby when Beijing comes calling.

    Several months ago I said that Evergrande wasn’t China’s Lehman Moment but it might just prove to be its Bear Stearns. Nothing I’ve seen since gives me assurance that I was wrong.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Regarding vaccinating children.

    As I understand it and as we are seeing now vaccines don't appear to be stopping people getting or passing on the virus.

    They do prevent serious illness, which children are overwhelmingly unlikely to experience with the virus.

    So what is the net benefit of vaccinating children.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    malcolmg said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    Is that the suggestion? No country has ‘got everything right’. I think on balance I’d rather have been in Germany for 2020 than most other Western European nations. I’d rather have been in England since July 2021. I think it’s possible that our open policy has been beneficial in the long term, as the unvaccinated have had their shot via the virus, not the needle, and other nations who succeeded in keeping the lid on Covid may pay a price now. It’s also possible that omicron may get them out of jail.
    Lots of unknowns.
    I don’t think anyone is giving Johnson 10 out of 10. But it’s reasonable to be in favour of the current stance against those who would bring in restrictions.
    Anyone giving him more than 1/10 is either stark raving mad or brain dead
    It's been a mixed bag from Johnson, as might have been expected. He's made some 10/10 decisions during the pandemic, but also a lot of 1/10 decisions.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    moonshine said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Countries that have been pursuing a zero covid policy are going to encounter problems when the omicron variant arrives, assuming they continue to insist on a zero covid policy.

    There’s been the odd post about China in the last week but not much. Does no one else think that’s going to be the major story of early 2022?

    The industrial disinfecting of city streets and air in Xian was so odd. We all know fresh air and surfaces are no risk, so why are they doing it? Bart said it was a good way of keeping people indoors. And that would be true in a country with a population that regularly laughs off what their government tell them to do. But a bit redundant in a city that already has tanks on the streets.

    Feels to me like the Party knows it has now probably lost control and they needed a highly visual meme for social media so that a) people in the rest of the country would become afraid again, b) no one could question they had not done everything possible.

    Which leaves us with two questions of note.
    1) by how much is omicron intrinsically less virulent than other strains?
    2) what protection against serious disease from omicron do their Mickey Mouse vaccines confer?

    China might be lucky and chart a safe passage through omicron’s choppy waters. But if it’s unlucky, we’re going to see a lengthy national lockdown (in the extreme sense of the word), and potentially scenes not dissimilar to Wuhan in multiple places at once.

    While the leadership deserve everything coming to them, the poor fuckers that live under them do not. So a troubling month ahead while we see which way it goes. Not least for what it might do to global markets, demand and inflation if it leads to the day of reckoning in their financial system.
    I don't think "no risk" is correct: I think it is merely that ventilation is x times more important. (Substitute your own value of x.)

    This may simply be a case of: we must do something; this is something; therefore we need to do this.
    It's plain desperation. The municipal leadership must know what will happen to them if/when this doesn't work.
    Especially when you overlay the Winter Olympics. How miserable to be the one left holding the baby when Beijing comes calling.

    Several months ago I said that Evergrande wasn’t China’s Lehman Moment but it might just prove to be its Bear Stearns. Nothing I’ve seen since gives me assurance that I was wrong.
    China is blitzing Xian in advance of the Winter Olympics.

    "Just in case" to use the vernacular.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    TOPPING said:

    Regarding vaccinating children.

    As I understand it and as we are seeing now vaccines don't appear to be stopping people getting or passing on the virus.

    They do prevent serious illness, which children are overwhelmingly unlikely to experience with the virus.

    So what is the net benefit of vaccinating children.

    Slows rate of catching it, and therefore rate of passing it to others - especially parents and other adults in the family. Which is to the child's benefit, of course.

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    TOPPING said:

    Regarding vaccinating children.

    As I understand it and as we are seeing now vaccines don't appear to be stopping people getting or passing on the virus.

    They do prevent serious illness, which children are overwhelmingly unlikely to experience with the virus.

    So what is the net benefit of vaccinating children.

    Overwhelmingly unlikely is not the same as don’t. It’s an equation of whether the population risk from the vaccine is greater or lesser than the virus. One reason I think they should, is because not every child has immunity from exposure. And who’s to say another variant doesn’t pop along that causes more serious problems for children.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,746
    edited December 2021
    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Countries that have been pursuing a zero covid policy are going to encounter problems when the omicron variant arrives, assuming they continue to insist on a zero covid policy.

    There’s been the odd post about China in the last week but not much. Does no one else think that’s going to be the major story of early 2022?

    The industrial disinfecting of city streets and air in Xian was so odd. We all know fresh air and surfaces are no risk, so why are they doing it? Bart said it was a good way of keeping people indoors. And that would be true in a country with a population that regularly laughs off what their government tell them to do. But a bit redundant in a city that already has tanks on the streets.

    Feels to me like the Party knows it has now probably lost control and they needed a highly visual meme for social media so that a) people in the rest of the country would become afraid again, b) no one could question they had not done everything possible.

    Which leaves us with two questions of note.
    1) by how much is omicron intrinsically less virulent than other strains?
    2) what protection against serious disease from omicron do their Mickey Mouse vaccines confer?

    China might be lucky and chart a safe passage through omicron’s choppy waters. But if it’s unlucky, we’re going to see a lengthy national lockdown (in the extreme sense of the word), and potentially scenes not dissimilar to Wuhan in multiple places at once.

    While the leadership deserve everything coming to them, the poor fuckers that live under them do not. So a troubling month ahead while we see which way it goes. Not least for what it might do to global markets, demand and inflation if it leads to the day of reckoning in their financial system.
    The Chinese government have been quite good at finding a way through these kinds of problems until now, utilising the tools of near totalitarian government, along with the kind of Covid theatre we are all used to (and which the disinfection of air may be regarded as an example). I've become highly sceptical of the constant predictions of the coming collapse of China, they are proven wrong again and again. The reality appears to be that the economic system can be managed, and the people will not revolt. Too many vested interests are now tied up with the success of the system. We can say, with some certainty, that their system is a success, even if we find it abhorrent. Omicron is probably not going to bring it down.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,786
    Andy_JS said:

    malcolmg said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    Is that the suggestion? No country has ‘got everything right’. I think on balance I’d rather have been in Germany for 2020 than most other Western European nations. I’d rather have been in England since July 2021. I think it’s possible that our open policy has been beneficial in the long term, as the unvaccinated have had their shot via the virus, not the needle, and other nations who succeeded in keeping the lid on Covid may pay a price now. It’s also possible that omicron may get them out of jail.
    Lots of unknowns.
    I don’t think anyone is giving Johnson 10 out of 10. But it’s reasonable to be in favour of the current stance against those who would bring in restrictions.
    Anyone giving him more than 1/10 is either stark raving mad or brain dead
    It's been a mixed bag from Johnson, as might have been expected. He's made some 10/10 decisions during the pandemic, but also a lot of 1/10 decisions.
    Depends how we are measuring it. If the US is the baseline at 5/10, then he's a 7.
  • Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    There's much, much more to the pandemic than how many people "died" and Johnson definitely doesn't deserve a 10/10, he's been far too lockdown heavy and lifted lockdown restrictions too late in the summer.

    Being better than others, doesn't mean you're perfect by any means.
    Johnson isn't better than others. At best we are middling. The idea we are the best, or better than anyone else is absurd and you look ridiculous for such a POV
    First in the world for vaccines being rolled out.
    First in the world of major nations for vaccines being rolled out.
    One of the only developed nations to lift all restrictions in the summer.

    How the fuck is first "middling"? Don't be ridiculous, there is nothing "middling" about first. 🙄
    We are decidedly middling, at best, in respect of the death rate from Covid, however one chooses to measure it. Arguably, for an advanced country such as ours the death rate is disappointing. For many, this is a more important metric than those you cite. Of course, the death rate is provisional - as is all the other data.
    I have no idea why anyone would prioritise the death rate from Covid as a more important metric than the speed of rolling out vaccines.

    Deaths are natural, vaccines are human. The latter is far more consequential.
    Well that's your POV and that's how you differ from some of us. I think it's a moral disgrace how many people have died unnecessarily during COVID, much of that due to our inaction here in this country. NZ have done a much better job at preventing death, as have many others.

    You don't prioritise that as a mark of success but I do.
    You have your priorities, I have mine.

    In hindsight I think we'd have been better doing the Swedish model and having no restrictions even pre-vaccines. I accepted lockdown as a necessary evil pre-vaccines and in hindsight I think I was wrong to do so.

    NZ have had people unable to travel for years. There will be plenty who've died in NZ from natural causes having been cut off from their family for their final two years of their lives.

    Are their deaths less "worthy" than Covid deaths to be counted?
    If you can provide evidence more people have died in NZ due to lack of travel than have been prevented by this policy, I would like to see it. I don't know what a good number would be - but many thousands would have needed to die for the policy not to be worth it.

    I think the Swedish model was a disaster, with even the architect of it saying it was wrong.
    I didn't say that more people died due to lack of travel, I said more people lost their final years of lives due to the restrictions. The two points are very different.

    About 35k people die naturally in NZ annually anyway. So about 70k have died in 2 years having lost their final years cut off from family and loved ones. Those 70k who've died naturally aren't going to be brought back to life to see their loved ones again when the restrictions are lifted.

    Yet if you check the "death" charts shared by Covid obsessives then 50 people have died in New Zealand apparently.

    50 really? What happened to the other approximately 69,950 that have either been buried or cremated?
    In what way have people in NZ been "cut off"?
    Most of the time life has gone on there as normal.
    They've had a much shorter lockdown period than us.
    NZ has done extremely well overall, but arguments about it are ultimately pointless given its unusual situation. It's in the middle of a vast ocean, 1,500 miles from anywhere, and all goods and people that come into and out of the country transit by sea and air. Sealing itself off behind travel bans and quarantine hotels was very painful (ask all the Kiwis exiled overseas about that) but it was also achievable practically. Britain, still less France or Austria or any number of other countries, didn't have that extreme option available.
    I understand that. We couldn't have been NZ even if we'd wanted too.
    But the way BR was talking they've been imprisoned unable to see dying relatives for two years continuously.
    They haven't. They've had much longer periods of total internal freedom than we have.
    We should have closed our international borders immediately in the same way that NZ and Australia did. We were in the ridiculous situation of locking down the domestic population while flights from China, Italy and elsewhere were still arriving in the country every day.
    Best in the world! We were number one in taking back control of our borders!
  • I still question whether ventilators are the right thing to be tracking if Omicron does not impact the lungs in the same way.

    As for admissions, referring to incidental admissions as the get out clause feels awfully similar to what was said around Delta and also those that said we’d reached herd immunity in summer 2020.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Good morning one and all. Unseasonably mild. Mrs C is darkly forecasting that 'we'll pay for it in mid to late January', but if our visitors have made it home we won't mind too much.

    Not feeling too confident about the economic future myself, although I did my income tax completed yesterday, which cheered me somewhat.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,169

    Incoming!

    English soccer player Raheem Sterling MBE is guest editing R4 Today.

    Has central office put the muzzle on the dog-whistlers? Calling Franco’s tank commander.

    It was nice of Raheem to invite me on to talk post-Brexit trading arrangements. Never knew he was so interested in UK customs policy.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Regarding vaccinating children.

    As I understand it and as we are seeing now vaccines don't appear to be stopping people getting or passing on the virus.

    They do prevent serious illness, which children are overwhelmingly unlikely to experience with the virus.

    So what is the net benefit of vaccinating children.

    Slows rate of catching it, and therefore rate of passing it to others - especially parents and other adults in the family. Which is to the child's benefit, of course.

    Does it slow the rate of catching it? In what way and how does that square with our current casedemic.

    Someone who is vaccinated can catch and pass it on as we are seeing now.

    Is there a rate of doing so?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Regarding vaccinating children.

    As I understand it and as we are seeing now vaccines don't appear to be stopping people getting or passing on the virus.

    They do prevent serious illness, which children are overwhelmingly unlikely to experience with the virus.

    So what is the net benefit of vaccinating children.

    Overwhelmingly unlikely is not the same as don’t. It’s an equation of whether the population risk from the vaccine is greater or lesser than the virus. One reason I think they should, is because not every child has immunity from exposure. And who’s to say another variant doesn’t pop along that causes more serious problems for children.
    So "just in case". Seems a bold move to vaccinate people who are overwhelmingly unlikely to be seriously ill from the virus for this reason.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    darkage said:

    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Countries that have been pursuing a zero covid policy are going to encounter problems when the omicron variant arrives, assuming they continue to insist on a zero covid policy.

    There’s been the odd post about China in the last week but not much. Does no one else think that’s going to be the major story of early 2022?

    The industrial disinfecting of city streets and air in Xian was so odd. We all know fresh air and surfaces are no risk, so why are they doing it? Bart said it was a good way of keeping people indoors. And that would be true in a country with a population that regularly laughs off what their government tell them to do. But a bit redundant in a city that already has tanks on the streets.

    Feels to me like the Party knows it has now probably lost control and they needed a highly visual meme for social media so that a) people in the rest of the country would become afraid again, b) no one could question they had not done everything possible.

    Which leaves us with two questions of note.
    1) by how much is omicron intrinsically less virulent than other strains?
    2) what protection against serious disease from omicron do their Mickey Mouse vaccines confer?

    China might be lucky and chart a safe passage through omicron’s choppy waters. But if it’s unlucky, we’re going to see a lengthy national lockdown (in the extreme sense of the word), and potentially scenes not dissimilar to Wuhan in multiple places at once.

    While the leadership deserve everything coming to them, the poor fuckers that live under them do not. So a troubling month ahead while we see which way it goes. Not least for what it might do to global markets, demand and inflation if it leads to the day of reckoning in their financial system.
    The Chinese government have been quite good at finding a way through these kinds of problems until now, utilising the tools of near totalitarian government, along with the kind of Covid theatre we are all used to. I've become highly sceptical of the constant predictions of the coming collapse of China, they are proven wrong again and again. The reality appears to be that the economic system can be managed, and the people will not revolt. Too many vested interests are now tied up with the success of the system. We can say, with some certainty, that their system is a success, even if we find it abhorrent. Omicron is probably not going to bring it down.
    The moment when I know its financial collapse is imminent is when it becomes hard to find anyone predicting it any more. I’ve written many times here about how China’s system of debt/saving and state ownership functions. I can say with very high confidence it will eventually collapse. I have been surprised they’ve kept it spinning this long but collapse it surely will.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,786

    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    There's much, much more to the pandemic than how many people "died" and Johnson definitely doesn't deserve a 10/10, he's been far too lockdown heavy and lifted lockdown restrictions too late in the summer.

    Being better than others, doesn't mean you're perfect by any means.
    Johnson isn't better than others. At best we are middling. The idea we are the best, or better than anyone else is absurd and you look ridiculous for such a POV
    First in the world for vaccines being rolled out.
    First in the world of major nations for vaccines being rolled out.
    One of the only developed nations to lift all restrictions in the summer.

    How the fuck is first "middling"? Don't be ridiculous, there is nothing "middling" about first. 🙄
    We are decidedly middling, at best, in respect of the death rate from Covid, however one chooses to measure it. Arguably, for an advanced country such as ours the death rate is disappointing. For many, this is a more important metric than those you cite. Of course, the death rate is provisional - as is all the other data.
    I have no idea why anyone would prioritise the death rate from Covid as a more important metric than the speed of rolling out vaccines.

    Deaths are natural, vaccines are human. The latter is far more consequential.
    Well that's your POV and that's how you differ from some of us. I think it's a moral disgrace how many people have died unnecessarily during COVID, much of that due to our inaction here in this country. NZ have done a much better job at preventing death, as have many others.

    You don't prioritise that as a mark of success but I do.
    You have your priorities, I have mine.

    In hindsight I think we'd have been better doing the Swedish model and having no restrictions even pre-vaccines. I accepted lockdown as a necessary evil pre-vaccines and in hindsight I think I was wrong to do so.

    NZ have had people unable to travel for years. There will be plenty who've died in NZ from natural causes having been cut off from their family for their final two years of their lives.

    Are their deaths less "worthy" than Covid deaths to be counted?
    If you can provide evidence more people have died in NZ due to lack of travel than have been prevented by this policy, I would like to see it. I don't know what a good number would be - but many thousands would have needed to die for the policy not to be worth it.

    I think the Swedish model was a disaster, with even the architect of it saying it was wrong.
    I didn't say that more people died due to lack of travel, I said more people lost their final years of lives due to the restrictions. The two points are very different.

    About 35k people die naturally in NZ annually anyway. So about 70k have died in 2 years having lost their final years cut off from family and loved ones. Those 70k who've died naturally aren't going to be brought back to life to see their loved ones again when the restrictions are lifted.

    Yet if you check the "death" charts shared by Covid obsessives then 50 people have died in New Zealand apparently.

    50 really? What happened to the other approximately 69,950 that have either been buried or cremated?
    In what way have people in NZ been "cut off"?
    Most of the time life has gone on there as normal.
    They've had a much shorter lockdown period than us.
    NZ has done extremely well overall, but arguments about it are ultimately pointless given its unusual situation. It's in the middle of a vast ocean, 1,500 miles from anywhere, and all goods and people that come into and out of the country transit by sea and air. Sealing itself off behind travel bans and quarantine hotels was very painful (ask all the Kiwis exiled overseas about that) but it was also achievable practically. Britain, still less France or Austria or any number of other countries, didn't have that extreme option available.
    I understand that. We couldn't have been NZ even if we'd wanted too.
    But the way BR was talking they've been imprisoned unable to see dying relatives for two years continuously.
    They haven't. They've had much longer periods of total internal freedom than we have.
    We should have closed our international borders immediately in the same way that NZ and Australia did. We were in the ridiculous situation of locking down the domestic population while flights from China, Italy and elsewhere were still arriving in the country every day.
    Best in the world! We were number one in taking back control of our borders!
    Omichron laid this argument to rest. We had immediate data from S.Africa, responded by banning travel from multiple countries, and we then discovered Omi had already been in the community for several days.

    One of the best things about this country is how well travelled we all are, and how many guests we have from overseas. It's also a weakness in a pandemic.
  • Good morning one and all. Unseasonably mild. Mrs C is darkly forecasting that 'we'll pay for it in mid to late January', but if our visitors have made it home we won't mind too much.

    Not feeling too confident about the economic future myself, although I did my income tax completed yesterday, which cheered me somewhat.

    Hey OKC, best wishes to you both and hope you had a good Christmas
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Regarding vaccinating children.

    As I understand it and as we are seeing now vaccines don't appear to be stopping people getting or passing on the virus.

    They do prevent serious illness, which children are overwhelmingly unlikely to experience with the virus.

    So what is the net benefit of vaccinating children.

    Overwhelmingly unlikely is not the same as don’t. It’s an equation of whether the population risk from the vaccine is greater or lesser than the virus. One reason I think they should, is because not every child has immunity from exposure. And who’s to say another variant doesn’t pop along that causes more serious problems for children.
    So "just in case". Seems a bold move to vaccinate people who are overwhelmingly unlikely to be seriously ill from the virus for this reason.
    Many places have long ago decided the balance of risk lies with vaccination, without considering my just in case.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088
    TOPPING said:

    Regarding vaccinating children.

    As I understand it and as we are seeing now vaccines don't appear to be stopping people getting or passing on the virus.

    They do prevent serious illness, which children are overwhelmingly unlikely to experience with the virus.

    So what is the net benefit of vaccinating children.

    AIUI some reports have been coming out of the States recently suggesting higher rates of Covid hospitalisation in younger children - though that merely brings us back to the admissions for versus admissions with Covid issue.

    However, should it be confirmed that the virus remains a minuscule risk to young children, one could make a reasonable case for mass vaccination of this cohort being an unnecessary waste of resources - given, as you say, that the efficacy of the vaccines in preventing transmission appears to be limited, and that a large percentage of schoolchildren have already caught this disease.

    The time and effort that it would take to inoculate them all might be better spent going back round to the beginning and boosting the olds again.
  • moonshine said:

    darkage said:

    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Countries that have been pursuing a zero covid policy are going to encounter problems when the omicron variant arrives, assuming they continue to insist on a zero covid policy.

    There’s been the odd post about China in the last week but not much. Does no one else think that’s going to be the major story of early 2022?

    The industrial disinfecting of city streets and air in Xian was so odd. We all know fresh air and surfaces are no risk, so why are they doing it? Bart said it was a good way of keeping people indoors. And that would be true in a country with a population that regularly laughs off what their government tell them to do. But a bit redundant in a city that already has tanks on the streets.

    Feels to me like the Party knows it has now probably lost control and they needed a highly visual meme for social media so that a) people in the rest of the country would become afraid again, b) no one could question they had not done everything possible.

    Which leaves us with two questions of note.
    1) by how much is omicron intrinsically less virulent than other strains?
    2) what protection against serious disease from omicron do their Mickey Mouse vaccines confer?

    China might be lucky and chart a safe passage through omicron’s choppy waters. But if it’s unlucky, we’re going to see a lengthy national lockdown (in the extreme sense of the word), and potentially scenes not dissimilar to Wuhan in multiple places at once.

    While the leadership deserve everything coming to them, the poor fuckers that live under them do not. So a troubling month ahead while we see which way it goes. Not least for what it might do to global markets, demand and inflation if it leads to the day of reckoning in their financial system.
    The Chinese government have been quite good at finding a way through these kinds of problems until now, utilising the tools of near totalitarian government, along with the kind of Covid theatre we are all used to. I've become highly sceptical of the constant predictions of the coming collapse of China, they are proven wrong again and again. The reality appears to be that the economic system can be managed, and the people will not revolt. Too many vested interests are now tied up with the success of the system. We can say, with some certainty, that their system is a success, even if we find it abhorrent. Omicron is probably not going to bring it down.
    The moment when I know its financial collapse is imminent is when it becomes hard to find anyone predicting it any more. I’ve written many times here about how China’s system of debt/saving and state ownership functions. I can say with very high confidence it will eventually collapse. I have been surprised they’ve kept it spinning this long but collapse it surely will.
    Why do you think it will surely collapse?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226

    I still question whether ventilators are the right thing to be tracking if Omicron does not impact the lungs in the same way.

    As for admissions, referring to incidental admissions as the get out clause feels awfully similar to what was said around Delta and also those that said we’d reached herd immunity in summer 2020.

    You are right, given the typical symptom set for omicron so far in this country, we should track sales of lozenges instead.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Regarding vaccinating children.

    As I understand it and as we are seeing now vaccines don't appear to be stopping people getting or passing on the virus.

    They do prevent serious illness, which children are overwhelmingly unlikely to experience with the virus.

    So what is the net benefit of vaccinating children.

    Slows rate of catching it, and therefore rate of passing it to others - especially parents and other adults in the family. Which is to the child's benefit, of course.

    Does it slow the rate of catching it? In what way and how does that square with our current casedemic.

    Someone who is vaccinated can catch and pass it on as we are seeing now.

    Is there a rate of doing so?
    IIRC quite a reduction, but not a high one - can't recall the current figure (which would depend on one's individual circumstances anyway) but it's more like a half than 10 or 90 percent?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AlistairM said:

    Lots of talk of NZ. They have just announced someone had Omicron on Boxing Day and was in various locations including a nightclub.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-first-community-exposure-of-omicron-in-nz-confirmed-by-ministry-of-health/BT6J5E5L5RF6LOF4V3AGF3N6VM/

    We will now get to see what happens with Omicron in a well vaccinated population but with almost no immunity from previous infection. I don't believe they have done boosters yet.

    No boosters buy recently completed very high percentage 2 dose rollout. It is almost the perfect science experiment to see how Omicron does.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    Good morning one and all. Unseasonably mild. Mrs C is darkly forecasting that 'we'll pay for it in mid to late January', but if our visitors have made it home we won't mind too much.

    Not feeling too confident about the economic future myself, although I did my income tax completed yesterday, which cheered me somewhat.

    Hey OKC, best wishes to you both and hope you had a good Christmas
    Thank you Horse. Same to you. We are left with a Christmas mystery; a bag of presents went missing and still hasn't been found!
  • moonshine said:

    I still question whether ventilators are the right thing to be tracking if Omicron does not impact the lungs in the same way.

    As for admissions, referring to incidental admissions as the get out clause feels awfully similar to what was said around Delta and also those that said we’d reached herd immunity in summer 2020.

    You are right, given the typical symptom set for omicron so far in this country, we should track sales of lozenges instead.
    This feels eerily similar to what was said initially about the Wuhan variant. I just hope you are right and I am wrong
  • Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    It is astonishing to see somebody accusing Europe of mismanaging the pandemic and yet giving Johnson a 10/10 for it here.

    Let's check how many people died buddy

    There's much, much more to the pandemic than how many people "died" and Johnson definitely doesn't deserve a 10/10, he's been far too lockdown heavy and lifted lockdown restrictions too late in the summer.

    Being better than others, doesn't mean you're perfect by any means.
    Johnson isn't better than others. At best we are middling. The idea we are the best, or better than anyone else is absurd and you look ridiculous for such a POV
    First in the world for vaccines being rolled out.
    First in the world of major nations for vaccines being rolled out.
    One of the only developed nations to lift all restrictions in the summer.

    How the fuck is first "middling"? Don't be ridiculous, there is nothing "middling" about first. 🙄
    We are decidedly middling, at best, in respect of the death rate from Covid, however one chooses to measure it. Arguably, for an advanced country such as ours the death rate is disappointing. For many, this is a more important metric than those you cite. Of course, the death rate is provisional - as is all the other data.
    I have no idea why anyone would prioritise the death rate from Covid as a more important metric than the speed of rolling out vaccines.

    Deaths are natural, vaccines are human. The latter is far more consequential.
    Well that's your POV and that's how you differ from some of us. I think it's a moral disgrace how many people have died unnecessarily during COVID, much of that due to our inaction here in this country. NZ have done a much better job at preventing death, as have many others.

    You don't prioritise that as a mark of success but I do.
    You have your priorities, I have mine.

    In hindsight I think we'd have been better doing the Swedish model and having no restrictions even pre-vaccines. I accepted lockdown as a necessary evil pre-vaccines and in hindsight I think I was wrong to do so.

    NZ have had people unable to travel for years. There will be plenty who've died in NZ from natural causes having been cut off from their family for their final two years of their lives.

    Are their deaths less "worthy" than Covid deaths to be counted?
    If you can provide evidence more people have died in NZ due to lack of travel than have been prevented by this policy, I would like to see it. I don't know what a good number would be - but many thousands would have needed to die for the policy not to be worth it.

    I think the Swedish model was a disaster, with even the architect of it saying it was wrong.
    I didn't say that more people died due to lack of travel, I said more people lost their final years of lives due to the restrictions. The two points are very different.

    About 35k people die naturally in NZ annually anyway. So about 70k have died in 2 years having lost their final years cut off from family and loved ones. Those 70k who've died naturally aren't going to be brought back to life to see their loved ones again when the restrictions are lifted.

    Yet if you check the "death" charts shared by Covid obsessives then 50 people have died in New Zealand apparently.

    50 really? What happened to the other approximately 69,950 that have either been buried or cremated?
    In what way have people in NZ been "cut off"?
    Most of the time life has gone on there as normal.
    They've had a much shorter lockdown period than us.
    NZ has done extremely well overall, but arguments about it are ultimately pointless given its unusual situation. It's in the middle of a vast ocean, 1,500 miles from anywhere, and all goods and people that come into and out of the country transit by sea and air. Sealing itself off behind travel bans and quarantine hotels was very painful (ask all the Kiwis exiled overseas about that) but it was also achievable practically. Britain, still less France or Austria or any number of other countries, didn't have that extreme option available.
    I understand that. We couldn't have been NZ even if we'd wanted too.
    But the way BR was talking they've been imprisoned unable to see dying relatives for two years continuously.
    They haven't. They've had much longer periods of total internal freedom than we have.
    We should have closed our international borders immediately in the same way that NZ and Australia did. We were in the ridiculous situation of locking down the domestic population while flights from China, Italy and elsewhere were still arriving in the country every day.
    Best in the world! We were number one in taking back control of our borders!
    Omichron laid this argument to rest. We had immediate data from S.Africa, responded by banning travel from multiple countries, and we then discovered Omi had already been in the community for several days.

    One of the best things about this country is how well travelled we all are, and how many guests we have from overseas. It's also a weakness in a pandemic.
    Omicron is indeed a different scenario. I was referring to the first wave where we literally did nothing to stop virus pouring in. Despite literally weeks later the people doing nothing having been crowing about how they had just Taken Back Control of the border. Remember that EU membership meant borders could not be closed (yet they were) and having left ours could now be closed (yet wasn't).

    This is what is so laughable about Doctor Death's 10/10 ramping. Well, pitiful more than laughable. If your perspective is that the only consideration is his personal freedom and people die so what, then perhaps 10/10.

    Its like Harold Shipman giving himself 10/10 for the speed in which he dispatched his patients. Anyway, we know that it was only the law preventing all the other doctors from murdering their own patients...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited December 2021
    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Regarding vaccinating children.

    As I understand it and as we are seeing now vaccines don't appear to be stopping people getting or passing on the virus.

    They do prevent serious illness, which children are overwhelmingly unlikely to experience with the virus.

    So what is the net benefit of vaccinating children.

    Slows rate of catching it, and therefore rate of passing it to others - especially parents and other adults in the family. Which is to the child's benefit, of course.

    Does it slow the rate of catching it? In what way and how does that square with our current casedemic.

    Someone who is vaccinated can catch and pass it on as we are seeing now.

    Is there a rate of doing so?
    IIRC quite a reduction, but not a high one - can't recall the current figure (which would depend on one's individual circumstances anyway) but it's more like a half than 10 or 90 percent?
    Thanks. All information that the JCVI has had to hand also.
  • Good morning one and all. Unseasonably mild. Mrs C is darkly forecasting that 'we'll pay for it in mid to late January', but if our visitors have made it home we won't mind too much.

    Not feeling too confident about the economic future myself, although I did my income tax completed yesterday, which cheered me somewhat.

    Hey OKC, best wishes to you both and hope you had a good Christmas
    Thank you Horse. Same to you. We are left with a Christmas mystery; a bag of presents went missing and still hasn't been found!
    How strange, they will surely turn up in the most unexpected of places
This discussion has been closed.