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The pre-Xmas polls won’t help Johnson’s survival chances – politicalbetting.com

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  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503
    kyf_100 said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    I really wish people like you would listen to cries of anguish when you hear them.

    It's not just about parties being called off, it's about the unfairness of being a twenty something in a junior job, maybe in a four person house share and being cooped up in your bedroom working. Sometimes in the heat of summer with no air con, or spending your own (hard earned pennies) keeping the place warm in winter. The oppressiveness of your living room suddenly becoming your office. The inability to switch off from work, because your home is work and work is your home.

    It's about feeling unable to change jobs (how do you onboard with a new team virtually, when you're joining a new team who used to know each other pre pandemic?), it's about wondering how you're going to learn from your "peers" when your peers are just a zoom call now.

    It's about being afraid to take the train back across the country to see your gran in case someone coughs in your face and you pass it on to her. It's about not being able to take a holiday because you can't afford the possibility of a 10 day quarantine hotel, or even the cost of private PCR tests before and after you travel.

    It's about body issues from weight gain, gyms closed (or perhaps being afraid to go to the gym), it's about drinking too much because of the stress of just watching the non-stop doom porn that the news has become, night after night.

    It's about wondering when this will ever end.

    The pandemic has been brutal on many of us, and some more than others. Some people - the older, more established ones, with families, big houses, steady jobs and gardens, have prospered. Others have silently screamed in despair.
    Very powerfully and evocatively written - thank you.

    Not disagreeing with the general point that you're making, but in case it helps, as an employer I've found that recruitment and onboarding at a distance can really work well. It's helped by the fact that everyone else is working from home, so only interacting with people by Zoom has become the norm. I've recruited people I've never met and found they slotted into the work pattern just as well as people did when they came in to work - after a year there are two of my best people who I've just met once, a few months ago, and I have productive colleagues who I've never met at all.

    Don't assume you won't be welcomed and integrated in a new job just because you're at a distance. It depends on the type of work, of course, but for office work it doesn't matter that much whether you can see someone's feet in a meeting.

    With a bit of luck all this will be history soon anyway, of course, but in the meantime do look around for what job suits you best, and enjoy the oncoming freedom.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    dixiedean said:

    There really is some over the top stuff on here tonight.
    You would think it was VE Day or summat.

    Do you mean you think people are getting ahead of themselves or do you think it's no big deal?

    If it does turn out that things are going to be okay re omicron, I'd suggest that is certainly cause for a big celebration. Perhaps it's not as big as some historical events, but if our politicians - or at least some of them - have managed to get past the fear of COVID, that is quite important in my opinion.

    The easy option was to bring in restrictions. That they held their nerve is worth celebrating, in my opinion.
  • MaxPB said:

    "Omicron is roughly two-thirds less likely to cause hospitalisation than the delta variant, the first real-world UK study suggests."

    Telegraph headline.



    Cabinet: 1; SAGE: 0

    Indeed. I remember being told that it would always be preferable to live under the rule of unelected experts rather than know nothing politicians. Sometimes the know nothing politicians have got a much better feel for what's happening than the experts who can't see beyond their numbers and modelled data.
    Yea, it generally works except when the politicians really do know nothing and when their leader would be better placed as a crowd pleaser at Billy Smart's.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited December 2021
    Half of patients in intensive care for covid are obese and 4x as many severely obese as should be in proportion to their numbers.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    I wonder how your body reacts to that many shots of the vaccine?

    HULK SMASH
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    Foxy said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    I understand how you feel. It doesn't offer a threat to you *directly*, but:
    *) It does to any elderly relatives and friends, etc.
    *) It does if the health system breaks down, and you injure yourself doing your 20-something antics, or are just unlucky and get a random illness that requires treatment.
    All my vulnerable friends and family are vaccinated, they are essentially as safe as they can possibly be; how many more sacrifices am I expected to make on behalf of people who have been offered a vaccine and refused it?

    And the problem is, the health system has already shut down for people like me and our "20-something antics". All the GPs are doing boosters instead (which I don't mind, but the idea that they'd be free to help me if I just sat quietly in my room for the rest of life isn't right).
    No one asked for this pandemic, and the reason the health system is under pressure is because of the virus. Wishing it away doesn't work, nor create the capacity for society. In England there are no real legal restrictions apart from mask wearing in certain places. We do not have any sort of lockdown.
    I keep making thing point. It is not "lockdown". And compared to some countries we have never had lockdown.
    It's not an unfair point.

    But it's not like it's been sunshine and rainbows either. It's been grim and fucking miserable, for two years. Even in the summer there, we got back some sort of normality, kind of, but with the covid cloud always hovering over, always threatening to piss on your chips.
    I haven’t found it grim and miserable. It’s been fine - could be a lot worse. Just sub-optimal, and somehow not normal life.

    It’s the not-normality that I think messes with peoples brains. A sense that things are in limbo, like a giant extended twixtmas. With this grows the suspicion, and fear, that some people would like to make this not-normality a permanent new-normal. Which by the way I am sure is ungrounded, but I understand the fear.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    kyf_100 said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    I really wish people like you would listen to cries of anguish when you hear them.

    It's not just about parties being called off, it's about the unfairness of being a twenty something in a junior job, maybe in a four person house share and being cooped up in your bedroom working. Sometimes in the heat of summer with no air con, or spending your own (hard earned pennies) keeping the place warm in winter. The oppressiveness of your living room suddenly becoming your office. The inability to switch off from work, because your home is work and work is your home.

    It's about feeling unable to change jobs (how do you onboard with a new team virtually, when you're joining a new team who used to know each other pre pandemic?), it's about wondering how you're going to learn from your "peers" when your peers are just a zoom call now.

    It's about being afraid to take the train back across the country to see your gran in case someone coughs in your face and you pass it on to her. It's about not being able to take a holiday because you can't afford the possibility of a 10 day quarantine hotel, or even the cost of private PCR tests before and after you travel.

    It's about body issues from weight gain, gyms closed (or perhaps being afraid to go to the gym), it's about drinking too much because of the stress of just watching the non-stop doom porn that the news has become, night after night.

    It's about wondering when this will ever end.

    The pandemic has been brutal on many of us, and some more than others. Some people - the older, more established ones, with families, big houses, steady jobs and gardens, have prospered. Others have silently screamed in despair.
    Very powerfully and evocatively written - thank you.

    Not disagreeing with the general point that you're making, but in case it helps, as an employer I've found that recruitment and onboarding at a distance can really work well. It's helped by the fact that everyone else is working from home, so only interacting with people by Zoom has become the norm. I've recruited people I've never met and found they slotted into the work pattern just as well as people did when they came in to work - after a year there are two of my best people who I've just met once, a few months ago, and I have productive colleagues who I've never met at all.

    Don't assume you won't be welcomed and integrated in a new job just because you're at a distance. It depends on the type of work, of course, but for office work it doesn't matter that much whether you can see someone's feet in a meeting.

    With a bit of luck all this will be history soon anyway, of course, but in the meantime do look around for what job suits you best, and enjoy the oncoming freedom.
    Indeed, "The Great Resignation" has allowed greater churn in employment than we have seen in some time.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    There really is some over the top stuff on here tonight.
    You would think it was VE Day or summat.

    Do you mean you think people are getting ahead of themselves or do you think it's no big deal?

    If it does turn out that things are going to be okay re omicron, I'd suggest that is certainly cause for a big celebration. Perhaps it's not as big as some historical events, but if our politicians - or at least some of them - have managed to get past the fear of COVID, that is quite important in my opinion.

    The easy option was to bring in restrictions. That they held their nerve is worth celebrating, in my opinion.
    The former. The signs look encouraging to be sure don't get me wrong. And I'm delighted about that.
    But we are one-nil up at half time and several are on a lap of honour.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    MaxPB said:

    "Omicron is roughly two-thirds less likely to cause hospitalisation than the delta variant, the first real-world UK study suggests."

    Telegraph headline.



    Cabinet: 1; SAGE: 0

    Indeed. I remember being told that it would always be preferable to live under the rule of unelected experts rather than know nothing politicians. Sometimes the know nothing politicians have got a much better feel for what's happening than the experts who can't see beyond their numbers and modelled data.
    Yea, it generally works except when the politicians really do know nothing and when their leader would be better placed as a crowd pleaser at Billy Smart's.
    Under Labour "following the science" Christmas would have been cancelled again and we'd be in lockdown until the end of January at least. We'd never have properly got rid of restrictions either in July. Sometimes not being dazzled by experts armed with big numbers is good for us, in fact I'd say that more than sometimes experts wielding big numbers deserve scepticism.
  • I wonder how your body reacts to that many shots of the vaccine?

    HULK SMASH
    Well i bet your arm must get the size of the hulk!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    "Omicron is roughly two-thirds less likely to cause hospitalisation than the delta variant, the first real-world UK study suggests."

    Telegraph headline.



    Cabinet: 1; SAGE: 0

    Indeed. I remember being told that it would always be preferable to live under the rule of unelected experts rather than know nothing politicians. Sometimes the know nothing politicians have got a much better feel for what's happening than the experts who can't see beyond their numbers and modelled data.
    Yea, it generally works except when the politicians really do know nothing and when their leader would be better placed as a crowd pleaser at Billy Smart's.
    Under Labour "following the science" Christmas would have been cancelled again and we'd be in lockdown until the end of January at least. We'd never have properly got rid of restrictions either in July. Sometimes not being dazzled by experts armed with big numbers is good for us, in fact I'd say that more than sometimes experts wielding big numbers deserve scepticism.
    Early days yet, mind.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    There really is some over the top stuff on here tonight.
    You would think it was VE Day or summat.

    Do you mean you think people are getting ahead of themselves or do you think it's no big deal?

    If it does turn out that things are going to be okay re omicron, I'd suggest that is certainly cause for a big celebration. Perhaps it's not as big as some historical events, but if our politicians - or at least some of them - have managed to get past the fear of COVID, that is quite important in my opinion.

    The easy option was to bring in restrictions. That they held their nerve is worth celebrating, in my opinion.
    The former. The signs look encouraging to be sure don't get me wrong. And I'm delighted about that.
    But we are one-nil up at half time and several are on a lap of honour.
    Okay, perhaps it is still too early to say, but I'm fairly confident that we're not going to have big problems like last January.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114

    Half of patients in intensive care for covid are obese and 4x as many severely obese as should be in proportion to their numbers.

    The failure of liberal Britain is:

    1) being scared of calling out the actions of the clinically obese.
    2) wanting instead to impose restriction on everyone else because of 1)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,425
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
    It's not as simple as that, though. I'm super happy tonight, I feel like a huge weight has been lifted. It's news in the right direction for the first time in weeks.

    The sense that our freedom to enjoy life is at the whim of some politician, some civil servant/scientist, is tiring and overbearing. That just a rumour of a new variant could lead to another lockdown.

    Much of my Christmas has been destroyed by Omichron. Delighted that Hogmanay might just pull through.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    "Omicron is roughly two-thirds less likely to cause hospitalisation than the delta variant, the first real-world UK study suggests."

    Telegraph headline.



    Cabinet: 1; SAGE: 0

    Only if it is a guessing game, rather than looking at evidence!

    You cannot make an evidence based decision until there is evidence to consider.

    The Scottish study is hopeful, but very small numbers.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
    But plenty of expert opinion and guidance from politicians that you'd be better staying in and doing nothing, and whether there's no legal restrictions or not, that's what they're really hoping you do.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
    There is the oppressive atmosphere. You in the medical profession should be aware of that.

    As a thought experiment look at a pre-covid TV program or sports event.

    No Covid. It really is as though the fog has lifted.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    "Omicron is roughly two-thirds less likely to cause hospitalisation than the delta variant, the first real-world UK study suggests."

    Telegraph headline.



    Cabinet: 1; SAGE: 0

    Indeed. I remember being told that it would always be preferable to live under the rule of unelected experts rather than know nothing politicians. Sometimes the know nothing politicians have got a much better feel for what's happening than the experts who can't see beyond their numbers and modelled data.
    Yea, it generally works except when the politicians really do know nothing and when their leader would be better placed as a crowd pleaser at Billy Smart's.
    Under Labour "following the science" Christmas would have been cancelled again and we'd be in lockdown until the end of January at least. We'd never have properly got rid of restrictions either in July. Sometimes not being dazzled by experts armed with big numbers is good for us, in fact I'd say that more than sometimes experts wielding big numbers deserve scepticism.
    Well I am no fan of Labour, but I think you are being a little uncharacteristically naïve. The oppositions job is to oppose, and also they do not have a data that government has. If they were in government they might have done exactly the same. Perhaps you think they should have said "oh yes, The Clown is always right and we will support him every bit of the way"?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813

    Half of patients in intensive care for covid are obese and 4x as many severely obese as should be in proportion to their numbers.

    Completely unsurprising, and nearly two years of this rubbish, with all the lockdowns and gyms and leisure facilities repeatedly restricted or closed, won't have made the nation's tremendous weight and inactivity problems any better.

    Britain, collectively, is very, very fat.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
    There is the oppressive atmosphere. You in the medical profession should be aware of that.

    As a thought experiment look at a pre-covid TV program or sports event.

    No Covid. It really is as though the fog has lifted.
    I've been really quite surprised at too many friends in the medical profession who have, for example, suggested to me that wearing masks to go into shops forever might be 'the price we have to pay'.

    The levels of institutional groupthink in the NHS really do need addressing....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
    There is the oppressive atmosphere. You in the medical profession should be aware of that.

    As a thought experiment look at a pre-covid TV program or sports event.

    No Covid. It really is as though the fog has lifted.
    Yes, but it is caused by the virus, not by the minimal rules that we have.

    Wishing that the virus never happened is fine and dandy, but it did happen.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited December 2021
    pigeon said:

    Half of patients in intensive care for covid are obese and 4x as many severely obese as should be in proportion to their numbers.

    Completely unsurprising, and nearly two years of this rubbish, with all the lockdowns and gyms and leisure facilities repeatedly restricted or closed, won't have made the nation's tremendous weight and inactivity problems any better.

    Britain, collectively, is very, very fat.
    The risk of being a fatty though has dropped off the agenda, same way as Boris' diet clearly has.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Mortimer said:

    Half of patients in intensive care for covid are obese and 4x as many severely obese as should be in proportion to their numbers.

    The failure of liberal Britain is:

    1) being scared of calling out the actions of the clinically obese.
    2) wanting instead to impose restriction on everyone else because of 1)
    The discussion earlier on that Oxford risk website gave the impression that the primary risk factor is antivaxxer behaviour - much greater risk factors than 4x. I don't doubt that severe obesity is an issue, as well, but I'd like to see a comparison.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
    But plenty of expert opinion and guidance from politicians that you'd be better staying in and doing nothing, and whether there's no legal restrictions or not, that's what they're really hoping you do.
    Sure, and a lot of people are obviously doing so, but such decisions are purely their own.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    "Omicron is roughly two-thirds less likely to cause hospitalisation than the delta variant, the first real-world UK study suggests."

    Telegraph headline.



    Cabinet: 1; SAGE: 0

    Indeed. I remember being told that it would always be preferable to live under the rule of unelected experts rather than know nothing politicians. Sometimes the know nothing politicians have got a much better feel for what's happening than the experts who can't see beyond their numbers and modelled data.
    Yea, it generally works except when the politicians really do know nothing and when their leader would be better placed as a crowd pleaser at Billy Smart's.
    Under Labour "following the science" Christmas would have been cancelled again and we'd be in lockdown until the end of January at least. We'd never have properly got rid of restrictions either in July. Sometimes not being dazzled by experts armed with big numbers is good for us, in fact I'd say that more than sometimes experts wielding big numbers deserve scepticism.
    Well I am no fan of Labour, but I think you are being a little uncharacteristically naïve. The oppositions job is to oppose, and also they do not have a data that government has. If they were in government they might have done exactly the same. Perhaps you think they should have said "oh yes, The Clown is always right and we will support him every bit of the way"?
    They should have been opposing proposals to fundamentally change the relationship of the state to the individual...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,425

    pigeon said:

    Half of patients in intensive care for covid are obese and 4x as many severely obese as should be in proportion to their numbers.

    Completely unsurprising, and nearly two years of this rubbish, with all the lockdowns and gyms and leisure facilities repeatedly restricted or closed, won't have made the nation's tremendous weight and inactivity problems any better.

    Britain, collectively, is very, very fat.
    The risk of being a fatty though has dropped off the agenda, same way as Boris' diet clearly has.
    A huge missed opportunity.

    "Couch to 5k/5 pounds off to save the NHS"
  • Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
    There is the oppressive atmosphere. You in the medical profession should be aware of that.

    As a thought experiment look at a pre-covid TV program or sports event.

    No Covid. It really is as though the fog has lifted.
    I've been really quite surprised at too many friends in the medical profession who have, for example, suggested to me that wearing masks to go into shops forever might be 'the price we have to pay'.

    The levels of institutional groupthink in the NHS really do need addressing....
    The NHS is group think. It always was and always will be. It is the nature of the beast
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    pigeon said:

    Half of patients in intensive care for covid are obese and 4x as many severely obese as should be in proportion to their numbers.

    Completely unsurprising, and nearly two years of this rubbish, with all the lockdowns and gyms and leisure facilities repeatedly restricted or closed, won't have made the nation's tremendous weight and inactivity problems any better.

    Britain, collectively, is very, very fat.
    The risk of being a fatty though has dropped off the agenda, same way as Boris' diet clearly has.
    Mr J was going on about obesity in general in what? May 2020? when he came out of hospital. It does indeed seem to have been neglected of late, one regular exception being the medical column in Private Eye.
  • Carnyx said:

    Mortimer said:

    Half of patients in intensive care for covid are obese and 4x as many severely obese as should be in proportion to their numbers.

    The failure of liberal Britain is:

    1) being scared of calling out the actions of the clinically obese.
    2) wanting instead to impose restriction on everyone else because of 1)
    The discussion earlier on that Oxford risk website gave the impression that the primary risk factor is antivaxxer behaviour - much greater risk factors than 4x. I don't doubt that severe obesity is an issue, as well, but I'd like to see a comparison.
    Obviously age and vaccinated are the biggest factors, but weight still has an impact, especially among younger people and young, unvaccinated and fat, that has some dramatic difference in risk factor versus young, unvaccinated and slim.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
    There is the oppressive atmosphere. You in the medical profession should be aware of that.

    As a thought experiment look at a pre-covid TV program or sports event.

    No Covid. It really is as though the fog has lifted.
    I've been really quite surprised at too many friends in the medical profession who have, for example, suggested to me that wearing masks to go into shops forever might be 'the price we have to pay'.

    The levels of institutional groupthink in the NHS really do need addressing....
    Really? I have never heard any of my colleagues suggest that.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    In a pub in gosforth. Absolutely rammed, no seats, no masks

    Make sure you mask up if you pop into the corner shop for a Kitkat on the way home. Can't be too careful.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    edited December 2021
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
    There is the oppressive atmosphere. You in the medical profession should be aware of that.

    As a thought experiment look at a pre-covid TV program or sports event.

    No Covid. It really is as though the fog has lifted.
    I've been really quite surprised at too many friends in the medical profession who have, for example, suggested to me that wearing masks to go into shops forever might be 'the price we have to pay'.

    The levels of institutional groupthink in the NHS really do need addressing....
    Really? I have never heard any of my colleagues suggest that.
    Yep, two of my closest friends suggested I was some sort of nutjob for suggesting we need to, at some point, and the sooner the better, get back to the status quo ante.

    To be fair, one of them did see the point after he joked 'I suppose I'm never going to have to worry about not having a job and an income ho ho ho'.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited December 2021
    40% of severe cases are unvaccinated, so it could be some cross over between obese people and unvaccinated in the stats i provided.

    Still....being obese not a great idea in regards COVID, as with lots of other diseases.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Carnyx said:

    Mortimer said:

    Half of patients in intensive care for covid are obese and 4x as many severely obese as should be in proportion to their numbers.

    The failure of liberal Britain is:

    1) being scared of calling out the actions of the clinically obese.
    2) wanting instead to impose restriction on everyone else because of 1)
    The discussion earlier on that Oxford risk website gave the impression that the primary risk factor is antivaxxer behaviour - much greater risk factors than 4x. I don't doubt that severe obesity is an issue, as well, but I'd like to see a comparison.
    Obviously age and vaccinated are the biggest factors, but weight still has an impact, especially among younger people and young, unvaccinated and fat, that has some dramatic difference in risk factor versus young, unvaccinated and slim.
    Certainly the youngsters that I have seen in ICU with covid are nearly all obese, and not just a little bit.

    The junk food diet delivered to sofa sitters is a real killer.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    geoffw said:
    In a ‘significant early finding’ South Africa found hospital stays with Omicron were closer to 2.8 days than 8.5 days, so this is a major variable which could have a game-changing effect on whether the NHS can cope. Again, ministers are given no hint of this in the Sage briefing note. Length of hospital stay was one of the variables that allowed JP Morgan to critique the LSHTM modelling and come up with a less alarming scenario where no more restrictions would be needed.

    The document is phrased as if Sage is collectively making the case for lockdown: in reality Sage is a huge number of experts most of whom wish to provide advice but not lobby government for anything. But over the pandemic, Sage advice has tended to be edited and summarised by those inside government lobbying for more restrictions.


    Intriguing - who are these government insiders I wonder.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
    But plenty of expert opinion and guidance from politicians that you'd be better staying in and doing nothing, and whether there's no legal restrictions or not, that's what they're really hoping you do.
    Sure, and a lot of people are obviously doing so, but such decisions are purely their own.
    Plus the Drakeford and Sturgeon bespoke restrictions, to be fair.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    I wouldn’t be at all surprised if anti-vaxxers are on average more likely to be obese than the general population.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    "Omicron is roughly two-thirds less likely to cause hospitalisation than the delta variant, the first real-world UK study suggests."

    Telegraph headline.



    Cabinet: 1; SAGE: 0

    Indeed. I remember being told that it would always be preferable to live under the rule of unelected experts rather than know nothing politicians. Sometimes the know nothing politicians have got a much better feel for what's happening than the experts who can't see beyond their numbers and modelled data.
    Yea, it generally works except when the politicians really do know nothing and when their leader would be better placed as a crowd pleaser at Billy Smart's.
    Under Labour "following the science" Christmas would have been cancelled again and we'd be in lockdown until the end of January at least. We'd never have properly got rid of restrictions either in July. Sometimes not being dazzled by experts armed with big numbers is good for us, in fact I'd say that more than sometimes experts wielding big numbers deserve scepticism.
    Well I am no fan of Labour, but I think you are being a little uncharacteristically naïve. The oppositions job is to oppose, and also they do not have a data that government has. If they were in government they might have done exactly the same. Perhaps you think they should have said "oh yes, The Clown is always right and we will support him every bit of the way"?
    And yet the opposition has done the opposite and supported or egged on the government into more restrictions, longer lockdowns and plan b. Remember it was Labour votes that got plan b across the line. It was Starmer calling for lockdowns and circuit breakers. They are the lockdown party because they blindly trust the "experts with big scary numbers" not to be bullshitting them as the DoH/SAGE just tried to do with the cabinet.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
    There is the oppressive atmosphere. You in the medical profession should be aware of that.

    As a thought experiment look at a pre-covid TV program or sports event.

    No Covid. It really is as though the fog has lifted.
    I've been really quite surprised at too many friends in the medical profession who have, for example, suggested to me that wearing masks to go into shops forever might be 'the price we have to pay'.

    The levels of institutional groupthink in the NHS really do need addressing....
    Really? I have never heard any of my colleagues suggest that.
    Yep, two of my closest friends suggested I was some sort of nutjob for suggesting we need to, at some point, and the sooner the better, get back to the status quo ante.

    To be fair, one of them did see the point after he joked 'I suppose I'm never going to have to worry about not having a job and an income ho ho ho'.
    Doctors are very good at discovering new things to do, but I have not heard anyone at work say measures should be permanent, even in a hospital setting.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,172
    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
    There is the oppressive atmosphere. You in the medical profession should be aware of that.

    As a thought experiment look at a pre-covid TV program or sports event.

    No Covid. It really is as though the fog has lifted.
    I've been really quite surprised at too many friends in the medical profession who have, for example, suggested to me that wearing masks to go into shops forever might be 'the price we have to pay'.

    The levels of institutional groupthink in the NHS really do need addressing....
    Safety-ism is a cult.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
    But plenty of expert opinion and guidance from politicians that you'd be better staying in and doing nothing, and whether there's no legal restrictions or not, that's what they're really hoping you do.
    Sure, and a lot of people are obviously doing so, but such decisions are purely their own.
    Plus the Drakeford and Sturgeon bespoke restrictions, to be fair.
    My original comments specified England.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    boulay said:

    Charles said:

    algarkirk said:

    Charles said:

    TimT said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimT said:

    Selebian said:

    Just saw the JCVI news. FFS. Liberal handwriting and British exceptionalism at its worst. How long are our children going to have to endure disrupted education?

    What's the JCVI news? Something on vaccinating younger children?
    They’ve said most under 12s are not getting jabbed
    How many of them have had the lurgy already? Must be 80%+

    Mind you, how sure are they that variant Pi / Omega / Orion won't affect children badly?

    It is odd, SAGE seem to come up with every possible scenario of doom, whereas JCVI seem to plan for everything staying as it is at this instant.
    No, it's the Andromeda strain that will get the children
    RobD said:

    Have we discussed this?

    I predict a popcorn shortage.

    Meghan, Duchess of Sussex could be called as witness in Prince Andrew's sex case.

    Virginia Giuffre's lawyer says Duchess can be 'counted on to tell the truth' but said he is unlikely to depose the Queen 'out of respect'


    The Duchess of Sussex could be called as a witness in the civil suit against Prince Andrew brought by Virginia Roberts Giuffre.

    David Boies, the lawyer representing Ms Giuffre, told the Daily Beast that the Duchess of Sussex “is somebody we can count on to tell the truth”.

    Mr Boies said there are three reasons she may be deposed: “One; she is in the U.S. so we have jurisdiction over her.”

    “Two; she is somebody who obviously, at least for a period of time, was a close associate of Prince Andrew and hence is in a position to perhaps have seen what he did, and perhaps if not to have seen what he did to have heard people talk about it. Because of her past association with him, she may very well have important knowledge, and will certainly have some knowledge.”

    “Three; she is somebody who we can count on to tell the truth. She checks all three boxes.”

    Mr Boies stressed that no final decision had been made on who he would depose, stating that the Duchess is just “one of the people we are considering”.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/12/22/meghan-markle-could-called-witness-prince-andrews-sex-case-brought/

    But she didn't know him at the time of the allegations, did she?
    Surely hearsay is inadmissible, so unless she witnessed it herself (unlikely given timeframes and, well, everything),on what basis could she be called?
    Not getting involved in this case thanks, but on the subject of hearsay, as a general rule hearsay is not admissible as evidence against a defendant, but an important exception is hearsay evidence of what the defendant himself said about what he himself did.

    So, for example in an English criminal case a policeman gives evidence of what the defendant X said about the doings of himself. This is evidence against X. But if the defendants are X and Y, what X said to the the policeman about what Y is NOT evidence against Y unless and until X repeats it in court as X and Y dish each other in a cutthroat defence.

    There are a few other exceptions too. And in recent years it has widened a bit to include sometimes hearsay accounts of what witness Z said about defendant W before the witness got intimidated out of repeating it in court.

    Thanks. I can hardly imagine Andrew and Meghan having detailed discussions about the whole Epstein thing, and particularly not conversations in which Andrew made self-incriminating comments about any aspects relevant to the court case.
    And if Maghan says they did, in private, how can she be proven wrong?
    This is simply the general question of the quality, credibility, nature and reliability of evidence. If this was easy there would be no litigation and few lawyers.

    The issue is the reputational damage

    I’m aware that it’s Andrew we are talking about (!!) but the headlines would not be good for the RF as a whole
    I don’t know but I am sure the Mail and Sun would be happy to post a front page headlined “LIAR LIES” with a lovely photo of Megan……
    And she would sue them for libel - they couldn’t prove it was a lie
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
    But plenty of expert opinion and guidance from politicians that you'd be better staying in and doing nothing, and whether there's no legal restrictions or not, that's what they're really hoping you do.
    Sure, and a lot of people are obviously doing so, but such decisions are purely their own.
    Plus the Drakeford and Sturgeon bespoke restrictions, to be fair.
    My original comments specified England.
    Ah, sorry, I missed that, apologies.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    boulay said:

    Look on the bright side!! Think of all the crazy awful relationships you are dodging, the drug addictions you will swerve by being in your room, the dull departmental meetings you aren’t having to stay awake through, and you don’t have to worry about the cost of having a family as you can’t meet anyone to settle down with……

    I really do sympathise with you and hope that this is the end and you grasp every opportunity once it’s over to live a life, make mistakes, look stupid, laugh, wake up in good looking strangers beds and build a life and make memories rather than the hell it sounds you have been in.

    I would rather have the regrets of my 20’s than not because the upsides are so much better.

    And to think I spent my 20s doing models* in the office

    * the wrong sort of models
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
    There is the oppressive atmosphere. You in the medical profession should be aware of that.

    As a thought experiment look at a pre-covid TV program or sports event.

    No Covid. It really is as though the fog has lifted.
    I've been really quite surprised at too many friends in the medical profession who have, for example, suggested to me that wearing masks to go into shops forever might be 'the price we have to pay'.

    The levels of institutional groupthink in the NHS really do need addressing....
    The NHS is group think. It always was and always will be. It is the nature of the beast
    Total bollocks. NHS staff are as diverse in their opinions as any other sector of society.
  • Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
    There is the oppressive atmosphere. You in the medical profession should be aware of that.

    As a thought experiment look at a pre-covid TV program or sports event.

    No Covid. It really is as though the fog has lifted.
    I've been really quite surprised at too many friends in the medical profession who have, for example, suggested to me that wearing masks to go into shops forever might be 'the price we have to pay'.

    The levels of institutional groupthink in the NHS really do need addressing....
    Really? I have never heard any of my colleagues suggest that.
    Group think has passed them by!
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
    But plenty of expert opinion and guidance from politicians that you'd be better staying in and doing nothing, and whether there's no legal restrictions or not, that's what they're really hoping you do.
    Sure, and a lot of people are obviously doing so, but such decisions are purely their own.
    This.

    The general public has been asked to assess their own risk and modify their behaviours accordingly if they feel they are at risk or as a risk to others. I think the public has done a fantastic job these past few weeks using their own judgement and you have seen some of that impact in the data.

    Britain will open up when it happens, it will take time for people to feel comfortable again and people should take their time getting to that point, to a point where they feel comfortable to do so. They should not at any point be castigated or criticized for taking their time.

    There have been some positive developments these last couple of days but is it all over? Of course not, we are in for a tough time ahead but we will get their eventually.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    Charles said:

    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thread on the imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine.
    It looks like a WWI situation, where, having mobilised, the two choices are fight or put yourself at a permanent disadvantage. The difference is that this time around, there’s only one country - and one person - responsible.

    https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362849871368195
    75% of Russia’s total battalion tactical groups have been moved. Artillery, air defense units, tanks, APCs, bridge-laying equipment, mine clearers, armored excavators, engineering equipment, refueling, huge amount of logistics, etc. Follow @RALee85 for details

    Putin really is a total arse.

    Other than the whole nukes thing, it would be a great time for China to invade Russia...
    Or Taiwan…
    China has been invading Russia for a while now. Just stealthily. They are the ones exploiting the Russian Far East - there are few Russians there to do so or to prevent the Chinese and North Koreans from doing so
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    TOPPING said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    Says an old git I'm alright jack PBer who has forgotten or never knew the psychologically oppressive environment that younger people have had to live under regardless of whether they can "go down the pub" or not.

    Just the news of a 5pm news conference can be seriously anxiety-inducing for many, especially younger people.
    You went stir crazy Topping. They are just wimps nowadays. Had it too soft all their lives till now. They need to man up.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    I wouldn’t be at all surprised if anti-vaxxers are on average more likely to be obese than the general population.

    Well, they're certainly fat headed.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    boulay said:

    Charles said:

    algarkirk said:

    Charles said:

    TimT said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimT said:

    Selebian said:

    Just saw the JCVI news. FFS. Liberal handwriting and British exceptionalism at its worst. How long are our children going to have to endure disrupted education?

    What's the JCVI news? Something on vaccinating younger children?
    They’ve said most under 12s are not getting jabbed
    How many of them have had the lurgy already? Must be 80%+

    Mind you, how sure are they that variant Pi / Omega / Orion won't affect children badly?

    It is odd, SAGE seem to come up with every possible scenario of doom, whereas JCVI seem to plan for everything staying as it is at this instant.
    No, it's the Andromeda strain that will get the children
    RobD said:

    Have we discussed this?

    I predict a popcorn shortage.

    Meghan, Duchess of Sussex could be called as witness in Prince Andrew's sex case.

    Virginia Giuffre's lawyer says Duchess can be 'counted on to tell the truth' but said he is unlikely to depose the Queen 'out of respect'


    The Duchess of Sussex could be called as a witness in the civil suit against Prince Andrew brought by Virginia Roberts Giuffre.

    David Boies, the lawyer representing Ms Giuffre, told the Daily Beast that the Duchess of Sussex “is somebody we can count on to tell the truth”.

    Mr Boies said there are three reasons she may be deposed: “One; she is in the U.S. so we have jurisdiction over her.”

    “Two; she is somebody who obviously, at least for a period of time, was a close associate of Prince Andrew and hence is in a position to perhaps have seen what he did, and perhaps if not to have seen what he did to have heard people talk about it. Because of her past association with him, she may very well have important knowledge, and will certainly have some knowledge.”

    “Three; she is somebody who we can count on to tell the truth. She checks all three boxes.”

    Mr Boies stressed that no final decision had been made on who he would depose, stating that the Duchess is just “one of the people we are considering”.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/12/22/meghan-markle-could-called-witness-prince-andrews-sex-case-brought/

    But she didn't know him at the time of the allegations, did she?
    Surely hearsay is inadmissible, so unless she witnessed it herself (unlikely given timeframes and, well, everything),on what basis could she be called?
    Not getting involved in this case thanks, but on the subject of hearsay, as a general rule hearsay is not admissible as evidence against a defendant, but an important exception is hearsay evidence of what the defendant himself said about what he himself did.

    So, for example in an English criminal case a policeman gives evidence of what the defendant X said about the doings of himself. This is evidence against X. But if the defendants are X and Y, what X said to the the policeman about what Y is NOT evidence against Y unless and until X repeats it in court as X and Y dish each other in a cutthroat defence.

    There are a few other exceptions too. And in recent years it has widened a bit to include sometimes hearsay accounts of what witness Z said about defendant W before the witness got intimidated out of repeating it in court.

    Thanks. I can hardly imagine Andrew and Meghan having detailed discussions about the whole Epstein thing, and particularly not conversations in which Andrew made self-incriminating comments about any aspects relevant to the court case.
    And if Maghan says they did, in private, how can she be proven wrong?
    This is simply the general question of the quality, credibility, nature and reliability of evidence. If this was easy there would be no litigation and few lawyers.

    The issue is the reputational damage

    I’m aware that it’s Andrew we are talking about (!!) but the headlines would not be good for the RF as a whole
    I don’t know but I am sure the Mail and Sun would be happy to post a front page headlined “LIAR LIES” with a lovely photo of Megan……
    Yeah, but the trial is in the USA. Where strangely enough, Andy is NOT considered Meghan's moral superior.

    Over her, she's basically just Harry's wife. And the years of effort that The Firm AND the UK media establishment spent building him up - along with his brother - as a paragon of royal virtue and the Windsor brand means that, over here, he - and thus she - are regarded in a generally favorable light. Much more so, anyway, than among most PBers and many (esp. older) UKers.

    Boies is rattling several cages, and judging from PB commentary he must be pleased with the effects so far.
    He’s very subtly blackmailing Andrew. The evidential value Meghan has is minimal, but the damage she could do is massive
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    I genuinely think trust in our scientific experts would be enhanced if they and their self-appointed cheerleaders would simply acknowledge when they got something wrong. Rather than go through these ridiculous contortions pretending they were right, when they obviously weren't.

    Damn, it’s one of those weird days where one finds himself in agreement with Dan Hodges.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Endillion said:

    Bullshit....

    Premier League vaccines: Players 'may have legitimate concerns', says PFA boss Maheta Molango - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/59761920

    They have constant access to medical personnel, they had been given talks from experts....

    I'm so proud of Jürgen Klopp, he has been enthusiastically pro vaccine.

    It explains why everyone at Liverpool is fully vaxxed.

    He absolutely nails it here.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/dec/18/covid-chaos-leads-jurgen-klopp-demand-action-anti-vaxx-players-liverpool
    Jude Bellingham was very impressive.

    My understanding dirty leeds, wolves and Liverpool are the 3 teams where basically everybody is jabbed up.
    Same, as I understand it at Liverpool, anyone who had doubts about getting jabbed were spoken to by Klopp, Jordan Henderson, and by NHS/Vaccine staff.

    It has worked.
    While we have the PFA coming out with total horseshit.....trying to excuse the inexcusable.
    I'm not sure the footballers are necessarily wrong, per se.

    Elite top-level athletes are basically superbeings whose bodies function differently from us mere mortals, in terms of all sorts of things including lung capacity, heart function, etc, that might be related to COVID symptons. In addition, top-level sport is a game of very fine margins, and a small drop-off in performance can make huge differences to results, and hence earnings potential for the athletes concerned. It is possible that the vaccines cause effects that aren't noticeable to the general population, but which could either wreck the career of an elite athlete, or just reduce the edge they have over their competition to a level that we wouldn't notice, but which they would find unacceptable. The point being that the vaccines haven't been formally tested on groups that are sufficiently similar to them for them to be comfortable that they are not just safe, but cause no side effects whatsoever. They could therefore be justified in principle if they'd prefer to take their chances with the virus rather than the vaccines.

    Unfortunately, the societal implications of them refusing the vaccines are potentially huge, given their unfortunately impossible-to-shift status as role models to a large proportion of people across the country, many of them young and impressionable.
    They are a bunch of jessie boys.
  • I wonder how your body reacts to that many shots of the vaccine?

    You become a walking 5G hotspot.
    You know it's REALLY bad, when your ears start wringing with incoming calls, emails, texts . . . for other people . . .
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,412
    Charles said:

    boulay said:

    Charles said:

    algarkirk said:

    Charles said:

    TimT said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimT said:

    Selebian said:

    Just saw the JCVI news. FFS. Liberal handwriting and British exceptionalism at its worst. How long are our children going to have to endure disrupted education?

    What's the JCVI news? Something on vaccinating younger children?
    They’ve said most under 12s are not getting jabbed
    How many of them have had the lurgy already? Must be 80%+

    Mind you, how sure are they that variant Pi / Omega / Orion won't affect children badly?

    It is odd, SAGE seem to come up with every possible scenario of doom, whereas JCVI seem to plan for everything staying as it is at this instant.
    No, it's the Andromeda strain that will get the children
    RobD said:

    Have we discussed this?

    I predict a popcorn shortage.

    Meghan, Duchess of Sussex could be called as witness in Prince Andrew's sex case.

    Virginia Giuffre's lawyer says Duchess can be 'counted on to tell the truth' but said he is unlikely to depose the Queen 'out of respect'


    The Duchess of Sussex could be called as a witness in the civil suit against Prince Andrew brought by Virginia Roberts Giuffre.

    David Boies, the lawyer representing Ms Giuffre, told the Daily Beast that the Duchess of Sussex “is somebody we can count on to tell the truth”.

    Mr Boies said there are three reasons she may be deposed: “One; she is in the U.S. so we have jurisdiction over her.”

    “Two; she is somebody who obviously, at least for a period of time, was a close associate of Prince Andrew and hence is in a position to perhaps have seen what he did, and perhaps if not to have seen what he did to have heard people talk about it. Because of her past association with him, she may very well have important knowledge, and will certainly have some knowledge.”

    “Three; she is somebody who we can count on to tell the truth. She checks all three boxes.”

    Mr Boies stressed that no final decision had been made on who he would depose, stating that the Duchess is just “one of the people we are considering”.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/12/22/meghan-markle-could-called-witness-prince-andrews-sex-case-brought/

    But she didn't know him at the time of the allegations, did she?
    Surely hearsay is inadmissible, so unless she witnessed it herself (unlikely given timeframes and, well, everything),on what basis could she be called?
    Not getting involved in this case thanks, but on the subject of hearsay, as a general rule hearsay is not admissible as evidence against a defendant, but an important exception is hearsay evidence of what the defendant himself said about what he himself did.

    So, for example in an English criminal case a policeman gives evidence of what the defendant X said about the doings of himself. This is evidence against X. But if the defendants are X and Y, what X said to the the policeman about what Y is NOT evidence against Y unless and until X repeats it in court as X and Y dish each other in a cutthroat defence.

    There are a few other exceptions too. And in recent years it has widened a bit to include sometimes hearsay accounts of what witness Z said about defendant W before the witness got intimidated out of repeating it in court.

    Thanks. I can hardly imagine Andrew and Meghan having detailed discussions about the whole Epstein thing, and particularly not conversations in which Andrew made self-incriminating comments about any aspects relevant to the court case.
    And if Maghan says they did, in private, how can she be proven wrong?
    This is simply the general question of the quality, credibility, nature and reliability of evidence. If this was easy there would be no litigation and few lawyers.

    The issue is the reputational damage

    I’m aware that it’s Andrew we are talking about (!!) but the headlines would not be good for the RF as a whole
    I don’t know but I am sure the Mail and Sun would be happy to post a front page headlined “LIAR LIES” with a lovely photo of Megan……
    And she would sue them for libel - they couldn’t prove it was a lie
    You are of course correct (assuming of course that they didn’t just print a giant headline of “liar lies” and then coincidentally a separate story with small headline about Meghan’s new book, “war and peace” about a humble ginger prince who kills all the bad men who don’t want to educate women and then goes on to create world peace, guided by his brilliant wife, through his mental health foundation and a giant photo of her beatitude to accompany the smaller story…..) however as much as they can’t prove it’s a lie you could equally argue her testimony can’t be proved as the truth surely.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    dixiedean said:

    In a pub in gosforth. Absolutely rammed, no seats, no masks

    Ooh. Which one?
    Three Mile Inn
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    ...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sandpit said:

    boulay said:

    Charles said:

    algarkirk said:

    Charles said:

    TimT said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimT said:

    Selebian said:

    Just saw the JCVI news. FFS. Liberal handwriting and British exceptionalism at its worst. How long are our children going to have to endure disrupted education?

    What's the JCVI news? Something on vaccinating younger children?
    They’ve said most under 12s are not getting jabbed
    How many of them have had the lurgy already? Must be 80%+

    Mind you, how sure are they that variant Pi / Omega / Orion won't affect children badly?

    It is odd, SAGE seem to come up with every possible scenario of doom, whereas JCVI seem to plan for everything staying as it is at this instant.
    No, it's the Andromeda strain that will get the children
    RobD said:

    Have we discussed this?

    I predict a popcorn shortage.

    Meghan, Duchess of Sussex could be called as witness in Prince Andrew's sex case.

    Virginia Giuffre's lawyer says Duchess can be 'counted on to tell the truth' but said he is unlikely to depose the Queen 'out of respect'


    The Duchess of Sussex could be called as a witness in the civil suit against Prince Andrew brought by Virginia Roberts Giuffre.

    David Boies, the lawyer representing Ms Giuffre, told the Daily Beast that the Duchess of Sussex “is somebody we can count on to tell the truth”.

    Mr Boies said there are three reasons she may be deposed: “One; she is in the U.S. so we have jurisdiction over her.”

    “Two; she is somebody who obviously, at least for a period of time, was a close associate of Prince Andrew and hence is in a position to perhaps have seen what he did, and perhaps if not to have seen what he did to have heard people talk about it. Because of her past association with him, she may very well have important knowledge, and will certainly have some knowledge.”

    “Three; she is somebody who we can count on to tell the truth. She checks all three boxes.”

    Mr Boies stressed that no final decision had been made on who he would depose, stating that the Duchess is just “one of the people we are considering”.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/12/22/meghan-markle-could-called-witness-prince-andrews-sex-case-brought/

    But she didn't know him at the time of the allegations, did she?
    Surely hearsay is inadmissible, so unless she witnessed it herself (unlikely given timeframes and, well, everything),on what basis could she be called?
    Not getting involved in this case thanks, but on the subject of hearsay, as a general rule hearsay is not admissible as evidence against a defendant, but an important exception is hearsay evidence of what the defendant himself said about what he himself did.

    So, for example in an English criminal case a policeman gives evidence of what the defendant X said about the doings of himself. This is evidence against X. But if the defendants are X and Y, what X said to the the policeman about what Y is NOT evidence against Y unless and until X repeats it in court as X and Y dish each other in a cutthroat defence.

    There are a few other exceptions too. And in recent years it has widened a bit to include sometimes hearsay accounts of what witness Z said about defendant W before the witness got intimidated out of repeating it in court.

    Thanks. I can hardly imagine Andrew and Meghan having detailed discussions about the whole Epstein thing, and particularly not conversations in which Andrew made self-incriminating comments about any aspects relevant to the court case.
    And if Maghan says they did, in private, how can she be proven wrong?
    This is simply the general question of the quality, credibility, nature and reliability of evidence. If this was easy there would be no litigation and few lawyers.

    The issue is the reputational damage

    I’m aware that it’s Andrew we are talking about (!!) but the headlines would not be good for the RF as a whole
    I don’t know but I am sure the Mail and Sun would be happy to post a front page headlined “LIAR LIES” with a lovely photo of Megan……
    Yeah, but the trial is in the USA. Where strangely enough, Andy is NOT considered Meghan's moral superior.

    Over her, she's basically just Harry's wife. And the years of effort that The Firm AND the UK media establishment spent building him up - along with his brother - as a paragon of royal virtue and the Windsor brand means that, over here, he - and thus she - are regarded in a generally favorable light. Much more so, anyway, than among most PBers and many (esp. older) UKers.

    Boies is rattling several cages, and judging from PB commentary he must be pleased with the effects so far.
    It would be very interesting - if it turned out Meghan and Andrew knew each other 25 years ago. But otherwise…
    We shall see . . . though probably though a glass darkly.

    Remember, likes of you & me are NOT the targets of Boies's legal-message strategy.

    Also remember that this is the same House of Windsor that consigned the last Tsar of Russia & family to their fate in order to protect . . . wait for it . . . the House of Windsor.
    Russia was nothing.

    If it’s grade A shitty behaviour you are looking for them you should read up on the last Duke of Albany
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    I wonder how your body reacts to that many shots of the vaccine?

    You become a walking 5G hotspot.
    You know it's REALLY bad, when your ears start wringing with incoming calls, emails, texts . . . for other people . . .
    Definitely. If it causes you to wring your ears, rather than ringing in them, it must be terrible.

    (Just blame autocorrect like the rest of us do.)
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    968,665 boosters in UK today. Million within sight.
  • Well I'm not going to attack the scientists for seemingly getting it wrong, everyone gets stuff wrong.

    I don't get why people can't just be happy that we're seemingly avoiding another lockdown and things aren't as bad as they seemed. I'm delighted
  • So who will be the last politician or scientist to pretend that Omicron doubles every two days and that Omicron isn't milder than Delta ?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    geoffw said:

    968,665 boosters in UK today. Million within sight.

    Have we had today's update on the PB competition?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    It's been a long time since I was in my 20s.

    We are not "locked down" now - we've not been so for months, arguably we've not been since May 2020. The lifting of restrictions in mid July has essentially opened up most things. Yes. masks have to be worn in some places and you may need your Covid pass but essentially you can go anywhere in England.

    The last time I looked pubs and restaurants were open - if you are minded to be social and sociable, there's nothing stopping you this year - indeed, the hospitality industry will be more than happy to take you and your friends' money.
    This sort of 'theres nothing stopping you' except a list of things which make life much less fun is exactly what annoys me about people supporting and calling for rules. They're calling for rules on other people.

    Lets get back to normal, eh?
    I am not calling for rules, just pointing out that the rules that we have do not constitute preventing people from socialising, drinking, dancing or travelling. Anyone who feels locked down is only locking themselves down. There is no rule stopping people enjoying themselves.
    There is the oppressive atmosphere. You in the medical profession should be aware of that.

    As a thought experiment look at a pre-covid TV program or sports event.

    No Covid. It really is as though the fog has lifted.
    Yes, but it is caused by the virus, not by the minimal rules that we have.

    Wishing that the virus never happened is fine and dandy, but it did happen.
    Which is why the rules at every stage need to be interrogated to ensure they are absolutely necessary.

    Not just waved through by the medical profession. Just in case.
    They haven't been!

    SAGE is not just doctors either, it is constituted by experts appointed by the government. It is not some self selecting medical body.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Well I'm not going to attack the scientists for seemingly getting it wrong, everyone gets stuff wrong.

    I don't get why people can't just be happy that we're seemingly avoiding another lockdown and things aren't as bad as they seemed. I'm delighted

    Remember, we're all pessimists, and pessimists are never happy unless they're miserable.

    Even then we're not happy, of course, but at least we get that little glow of self-righteousness that devolves from being proved right.

    (No, this is not meant entirely seriously.)
  • ydoethur said:

    Well I'm not going to attack the scientists for seemingly getting it wrong, everyone gets stuff wrong.

    I don't get why people can't just be happy that we're seemingly avoiding another lockdown and things aren't as bad as they seemed. I'm delighted

    Remember, we're all pessimists, and pessimists are never happy unless they're miserable.

    Even then we're not happy, of course, but at least we get that little glow of self-righteousness that devolves from being proved right.

    (No, this is not meant entirely seriously.)
    How are you friend?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    edited December 2021
    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    I understand how you feel. It doesn't offer a threat to you *directly*, but:
    *) It does to any elderly relatives and friends, etc.
    *) It does if the health system breaks down, and you injure yourself doing your 20-something antics, or are just unlucky and get a random illness that requires treatment.
    All my vulnerable friends and family are vaccinated, they are essentially as safe as they can possibly be; how many more sacrifices am I expected to make on behalf of people who have been offered a vaccine and refused it?

    And the problem is, the health system has already shut down for people like me and our "20-something antics". All the GPs are doing boosters instead (which I don't mind, but the idea that they'd be free to help me if I just sat quietly in my room for the rest of life isn't right).
    No one asked for this pandemic, and the reason the health system is under pressure is because of the virus. Wishing it away doesn't work, nor create the capacity for society. In England there are no real legal restrictions apart from mask wearing in certain places. We do not have any sort of lockdown.
    I keep making thing point. It is not "lockdown". And compared to some countries we have never had lpropriate to qoute an an overreacting ckdown.
    What a load of guff.

    Until the summer it was against the law to have 7 people in my house.

    In the words of Liz Truss.

    That is a DISGRACE.
    Quoting an hyperbolising airhead? Well I never.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:

    Well I'm not going to attack the scientists for seemingly getting it wrong, everyone gets stuff wrong.

    I don't get why people can't just be happy that we're seemingly avoiding another lockdown and things aren't as bad as they seemed. I'm delighted

    Remember, we're all pessimists, and pessimists are never happy unless they're miserable.

    Even then we're not happy, of course, but at least we get that little glow of self-righteousness that devolves from being proved right.

    (No, this is not meant entirely seriously.)
    How are you friend?
    Well, I'm miserable obviously because I've got to be happy at iSAGE looking like fools. :smile:

    Seriously I'm OK. Hope you are too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    I understand how you feel. It doesn't offer a threat to you *directly*, but:
    *) It does to any elderly relatives and friends, etc.
    *) It does if the health system breaks down, and you injure yourself doing your 20-something antics, or are just unlucky and get a random illness that requires treatment.
    All my vulnerable friends and family are vaccinated, they are essentially as safe as they can possibly be; how many more sacrifices am I expected to make on behalf of people who have been offered a vaccine and refused it?

    And the problem is, the health system has already shut down for people like me and our "20-something antics". All the GPs are doing boosters instead (which I don't mind, but the idea that they'd be free to help me if I just sat quietly in my room for the rest of life isn't right).
    No one asked for this pandemic, and the reason the health system is under pressure is because of the virus. Wishing it away doesn't work, nor create the capacity for society. In England there are no real legal restrictions apart from mask wearing in certain places. We do not have any sort of lockdown.
    I keep making thing point. It is not "lockdown". And compared to some countries we have never had lpropriate to qoute an an overreacting ckdown.
    What a load of guff.

    Until the summer it was against the law to have 7 people in my house.

    In the words of Liz Truss.

    That is a DISGRACE.
    Quoting an hyperbolising airhead? Well I never.
    Bit of a cheesy cliché that.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456

    Can anyone comment on the accuracy of this "definitely accurate" map of GB Xmas gift-bringers?

    https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/rm98ts/definitely_accurate_map_of_the_christmas_gift/

    My personal favorites are "Old Man Pudding" (with Malc as his chief elf?) and "Tabitha the Christmas Hedgehog" (wonder who takes precedence in the Debatable Lands?)

    LOL. Old Nick for Cornwall seems about right. Can't really comment on the rest save in all my years in Plymouth I never heard of Joel Noel
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Good first half from Leicester, though our leaky defence still a problem.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    "Omicron is roughly two-thirds less likely to cause hospitalisation than the delta variant, the first real-world UK study suggests."

    Telegraph headline.



    Cabinet: 1; SAGE: 0

    Indeed. I remember being told that it would always be preferable to live under the rule of unelected experts rather than know nothing politicians. Sometimes the know nothing politicians have got a much better feel for what's happening than the experts who can't see beyond their numbers and modelled data.
    Yea, it generally works except when the politicians really do know nothing and when their leader would be better placed as a crowd pleaser at Billy Smart's.
    Under Labour "following the science" Christmas would have been cancelled again and we'd be in lockdown until the end of January at least. We'd never have properly got rid of restrictions either in July. Sometimes not being dazzled by experts armed with big numbers is good for us, in fact I'd say that more than sometimes experts wielding big numbers deserve scepticism.
    Early days yet, mind.
    Yes indeed

    @MaxPB! Remember the last time I had to warn you about breaking the Second Law of Covid Hubris - we got Omicron about a week later...


    Let our cheers be muted and wary, for now
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    I am reminded of the Little Britain Fatfighters sketch:

    "Half the calories, so you can eat twice as much."

    In this case:

    "Half the hospitalisation rate, so you can have twice as many cases."
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    "Omicron is roughly two-thirds less likely to cause hospitalisation than the delta variant, the first real-world UK study suggests."

    Telegraph headline.



    Cabinet: 1; SAGE: 0

    Indeed. I remember being told that it would always be preferable to live under the rule of unelected experts rather than know nothing politicians. Sometimes the know nothing politicians have got a much better feel for what's happening than the experts who can't see beyond their numbers and modelled data.
    Yea, it generally works except when the politicians really do know nothing and when their leader would be better placed as a crowd pleaser at Billy Smart's.
    Under Labour "following the science" Christmas would have been cancelled again and we'd be in lockdown until the end of January at least. We'd never have properly got rid of restrictions either in July. Sometimes not being dazzled by experts armed with big numbers is good for us, in fact I'd say that more than sometimes experts wielding big numbers deserve scepticism.
    Early days yet, mind.
    Yes indeed

    @MaxPB! Remember the last time I had to warn you about breaking the Second Law of Covid Hubris - we got Omicron about a week later...


    Let our cheers be muted and wary, for now
    If our politicians didn't run around like headless chickens at the drop of a hat Omicron would barely have registered as an issue.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    There really is some over the top stuff on here tonight.
    You would think it was VE Day or summat.

    Do you mean you think people are getting ahead of themselves or do you think it's no big deal?

    If it does turn out that things are going to be okay re omicron, I'd suggest that is certainly cause for a big celebration. Perhaps it's not as big as some historical events, but if our politicians - or at least some of them - have managed to get past the fear of COVID, that is quite important in my opinion.

    The easy option was to bring in restrictions. That they held their nerve is worth celebrating, in my opinion.
    The former. The signs look encouraging to be sure don't get me wrong. And I'm delighted about that.
    But we are one-nil up at half time and several are on a lap of honour.
    Okay, perhaps it is still too early to say, but I'm fairly confident that we're not going to have big problems like last January.
    No, but with the vaccines I don't see that we ever were going to be like last January.
    However, we still haven't had the Christmas inter-generational and inter-regional mixing. And we are on 100k cases a day. When, anecdotally, folk are avoiding testing to get their Xmas.
    Sorry to be the voice of caution here, but we aren't out of the woods yet.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,327
    Watching the Northern Ireland Executive announce what were fairly modest restrictions today was instructive.

    The implication was if London had gave them cash so they could chuck it out to support various sectors they'd have shut more shit down.

    So its now money, or as it might be better known, the economy.

    Just want to say thank you to the Treasury for actually forcing the politicians, many of whom are delightfully interventionist, to think and not just jump. Bearing in mind we have the slowest booster programme of any home nation, c2-3 weeks behind, they should be forced to think, not least why they didnt get that together sooner.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    I understand how you feel. It doesn't offer a threat to you *directly*, but:
    *) It does to any elderly relatives and friends, etc.
    *) It does if the health system breaks down, and you injure yourself doing your 20-something antics, or are just unlucky and get a random illness that requires treatment.
    All my vulnerable friends and family are vaccinated, they are essentially as safe as they can possibly be; how many more sacrifices am I expected to make on behalf of people who have been offered a vaccine and refused it?

    And the problem is, the health system has already shut down for people like me and our "20-something antics". All the GPs are doing boosters instead (which I don't mind, but the idea that they'd be free to help me if I just sat quietly in my room for the rest of life isn't right).
    No one asked for this pandemic, and the reason the health system is under pressure is because of the virus. Wishing it away doesn't work, nor create the capacity for society. In England there are no real legal restrictions apart from mask wearing in certain places. We do not have any sort of lockdown.
    I keep making thing point. It is not "lockdown". And compared to some countries we have never had lockdown.
    It's not an unfair point.

    But it's not like it's been sunshine and rainbows either. It's been grim and fucking miserable, for two years. Even in the summer there, we got back some sort of normality, kind of, but with the covid cloud always hovering over, always threatening to piss on your chips.
    I haven’t found it grim and miserable. It’s been fine - could be a lot worse. Just sub-optimal, and somehow not normal life.

    It’s the not-normality that I think messes with peoples brains. A sense that things are in limbo, like a giant extended twixtmas. With this grows the suspicion, and fear, that some people would like to make this not-normality a permanent new-normal. Which by the way I am sure is ungrounded, but I understand the fear.
    Well we discovered that about 30% of Britons are introverted, Aspergery puritans in a sour mood, who would quite like nightclubs and casinos closed FOREVER, and all pubs shut at 7.39pm, just in case someone, somewhere, is feeling happy, or having a cheeky snog
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,327
    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    There really is some over the top stuff on here tonight.
    You would think it was VE Day or summat.

    Do you mean you think people are getting ahead of themselves or do you think it's no big deal?

    If it does turn out that things are going to be okay re omicron, I'd suggest that is certainly cause for a big celebration. Perhaps it's not as big as some historical events, but if our politicians - or at least some of them - have managed to get past the fear of COVID, that is quite important in my opinion.

    The easy option was to bring in restrictions. That they held their nerve is worth celebrating, in my opinion.
    The former. The signs look encouraging to be sure don't get me wrong. And I'm delighted about that.
    But we are one-nil up at half time and several are on a lap of honour.
    Okay, perhaps it is still too early to say, but I'm fairly confident that we're not going to have big problems like last January.
    No, but with the vaccines I don't see that we ever were going to be like last January.
    However, we still haven't had the Christmas inter-generational and inter-regional mixing. And we are on 100k cases a day. When, anecdotally, folk are avoiding testing to get their Xmas.
    Sorry to be the voice of caution here, but we aren't out of the woods yet.
    The question is how much testing is being done. My understanding, awaiting confirmation from someone who does have insight, is thats its through the roof so how much of the cases are we just picking up what previously we didn't because the testing numbers were lower.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,058
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    "Omicron is roughly two-thirds less likely to cause hospitalisation than the delta variant, the first real-world UK study suggests."

    Telegraph headline.



    Cabinet: 1; SAGE: 0

    Indeed. I remember being told that it would always be preferable to live under the rule of unelected experts rather than know nothing politicians. Sometimes the know nothing politicians have got a much better feel for what's happening than the experts who can't see beyond their numbers and modelled data.
    Yea, it generally works except when the politicians really do know nothing and when their leader would be better placed as a crowd pleaser at Billy Smart's.
    Under Labour "following the science" Christmas would have been cancelled again and we'd be in lockdown until the end of January at least. We'd never have properly got rid of restrictions either in July. Sometimes not being dazzled by experts armed with big numbers is good for us, in fact I'd say that more than sometimes experts wielding big numbers deserve scepticism.
    Early days yet, mind.
    Yes indeed

    @MaxPB! Remember the last time I had to warn you about breaking the Second Law of Covid Hubris - we got Omicron about a week later...


    Let our cheers be muted and wary, for now
    If our politicians didn't run around like headless chickens at the drop of a hat Omicron would barely have registered as an issue.
    Just catching up on things, but do you see any chance of new restrictions being agreed in England despite this data?

    I'm not convinced this will see the likes of Gove drop the prospect of new measures. So I worry as to what their reaction will be if cases spike dramatically from here in the New Year.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    "Omicron is roughly two-thirds less likely to cause hospitalisation than the delta variant, the first real-world UK study suggests."

    Telegraph headline.



    Cabinet: 1; SAGE: 0

    Indeed. I remember being told that it would always be preferable to live under the rule of unelected experts rather than know nothing politicians. Sometimes the know nothing politicians have got a much better feel for what's happening than the experts who can't see beyond their numbers and modelled data.
    Yea, it generally works except when the politicians really do know nothing and when their leader would be better placed as a crowd pleaser at Billy Smart's.
    Under Labour "following the science" Christmas would have been cancelled again and we'd be in lockdown until the end of January at least. We'd never have properly got rid of restrictions either in July. Sometimes not being dazzled by experts armed with big numbers is good for us, in fact I'd say that more than sometimes experts wielding big numbers deserve scepticism.
    Well I am no fan of Labour, but I think you are being a little uncharacteristically naïve. The oppositions job is to oppose, and also they do not have a data that government has. If they were in government they might have done exactly the same. Perhaps you think they should have said "oh yes, The Clown is always right and we will support him every bit of the way"?
    This is jejune in the extreme


    The spirit and ethos of Labour - like the Dems in America - is now joyless, puritan and tending to authoritarianism. Cancellation not Liberation. NO rather than YES. DON'T SAY THAT rather than LET IT ALL HANG OUT

    It is very sad. I miss the old sexy liberated permissive Left. But it is gone forever, replaced by a bunch of ugly, cat's-arse-mouthed prudes
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    I really just want this over with. I've spent almost half my twenties in this pandemic. I've had essentially no social life in that time. I've been trapped paying half my income to live and work in a 12 square metre room with no outdoor space. There are people I've not met, experiences I haven't had, places I've not been, entirely because of an illness that poses no threat to me (or the overwhelming majority of the population now everyone has been offered a vaccination and a much milder strain has emerged). I really cannot justify pissing away more months or years of what was supposed to be a formative period of my life, so I doubt I'll respect any new restrictions moving forward.

    I understand how you feel. It doesn't offer a threat to you *directly*, but:
    *) It does to any elderly relatives and friends, etc.
    *) It does if the health system breaks down, and you injure yourself doing your 20-something antics, or are just unlucky and get a random illness that requires treatment.
    All my vulnerable friends and family are vaccinated, they are essentially as safe as they can possibly be; how many more sacrifices am I expected to make on behalf of people who have been offered a vaccine and refused it?

    And the problem is, the health system has already shut down for people like me and our "20-something antics". All the GPs are doing boosters instead (which I don't mind, but the idea that they'd be free to help me if I just sat quietly in my room for the rest of life isn't right).
    No one asked for this pandemic, and the reason the health system is under pressure is because of the virus. Wishing it away doesn't work, nor create the capacity for society. In England there are no real legal restrictions apart from mask wearing in certain places. We do not have any sort of lockdown.
    I keep making thing point. It is not "lockdown". And compared to some countries we have never had lockdown.
    It's not an unfair point.

    But it's not like it's been sunshine and rainbows either. It's been grim and fucking miserable, for two years. Even in the summer there, we got back some sort of normality, kind of, but with the covid cloud always hovering over, always threatening to piss on your chips.
    I haven’t found it grim and miserable. It’s been fine - could be a lot worse. Just sub-optimal, and somehow not normal life.

    It’s the not-normality that I think messes with peoples brains. A sense that things are in limbo, like a giant extended twixtmas. With this grows the suspicion, and fear, that some people would like to make this not-normality a permanent new-normal. Which by the way I am sure is ungrounded, but I understand the fear.
    Well we discovered that about 30% of Britons are introverted, Aspergery puritans in a sour mood, who would quite like nightclubs and casinos closed FOREVER, and all pubs shut at 7.39pm, just in case someone, somewhere, is feeling happy, or having a cheeky snog
    Indeed, and it seems like that geeky sad underclass have their hands at the levers of power within the civil service. They're the ones pushing the SAGE models to exclude any positive data and selectively editing their findings into lockdown. They want lockdown.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    TimT said:

    Can anyone comment on the accuracy of this "definitely accurate" map of GB Xmas gift-bringers?

    https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/rm98ts/definitely_accurate_map_of_the_christmas_gift/

    My personal favorites are "Old Man Pudding" (with Malc as his chief elf?) and "Tabitha the Christmas Hedgehog" (wonder who takes precedence in the Debatable Lands?)

    LOL. Old Nick for Cornwall seems about right. Can't really comment on the rest save in all my years in Plymouth I never heard of Joel Noel
    Haha - cheerful nonsense, Sea Shanty.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813

    Well I'm not going to attack the scientists for seemingly getting it wrong, everyone gets stuff wrong.

    I don't get why people can't just be happy that we're seemingly avoiding another lockdown and things aren't as bad as they seemed. I'm delighted

    Whilst I would agree with you to some extent I found the Media show on Radio 4 this evening with 3 scientists and the FT expert to be utterly infuriating. They were treating lockdown and other measures as if they had no cost at all. Basically attacking Johnson for not locking down and expressing some incredulity at the idea he might not kindly follow what the scientists have been recommending. It needs to be drummed into these people that the cure can sometimes cause more deaths than the disease. The operations was a success but the patient died is no way to run Government policy.

    I can't believe I am saying this but Blair on PM afterwards was a breath of fresh air. Measured and putting everything into context and commenting that not locking down was exactly the right decision. For all that I am no great fan, at least he gets it.
    As with so many things nowadays, the agenda is often driven by those with the most extreme opinions, amplified by competing media outlets looking to scare and sensationalise in order to win attention. Which is why, should Omicron not turn out to be the end of the world, we may nonetheless anticipate that the likes of Pagel and Michie will resurface the moment the next scary variant appears, and that their prophecies of doom and demands for lockdowns (followed by quite literally endless social distancing and gagging) will be lapped up and uncritically disseminated to the nation, with highly selective references to the times when disasters happened and none at all to the occasions when they failed to materialise.

    We may have years of rolling variant panics being ramped up by these people before we're finally allowed to put Covid behind us.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,327
    Ratters said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    "Omicron is roughly two-thirds less likely to cause hospitalisation than the delta variant, the first real-world UK study suggests."

    Telegraph headline.



    Cabinet: 1; SAGE: 0

    Indeed. I remember being told that it would always be preferable to live under the rule of unelected experts rather than know nothing politicians. Sometimes the know nothing politicians have got a much better feel for what's happening than the experts who can't see beyond their numbers and modelled data.
    Yea, it generally works except when the politicians really do know nothing and when their leader would be better placed as a crowd pleaser at Billy Smart's.
    Under Labour "following the science" Christmas would have been cancelled again and we'd be in lockdown until the end of January at least. We'd never have properly got rid of restrictions either in July. Sometimes not being dazzled by experts armed with big numbers is good for us, in fact I'd say that more than sometimes experts wielding big numbers deserve scepticism.
    Early days yet, mind.
    Yes indeed

    @MaxPB! Remember the last time I had to warn you about breaking the Second Law of Covid Hubris - we got Omicron about a week later...


    Let our cheers be muted and wary, for now
    If our politicians didn't run around like headless chickens at the drop of a hat Omicron would barely have registered as an issue.
    Just catching up on things, but do you see any chance of new restrictions being agreed in England despite this data?

    I'm not convinced this will see the likes of Gove drop the prospect of new measures. So I worry as to what their reaction will be if cases spike dramatically from here in the New Year.
    There is likely to be added measures.
  • Well I'm not going to attack the scientists for seemingly getting it wrong, everyone gets stuff wrong.

    I don't get why people can't just be happy that we're seemingly avoiding another lockdown and things aren't as bad as they seemed. I'm delighted

    Whilst I would agree with you to some extent I found the Media show on Radio 4 this evening with 3 scientists and the FT expert to be utterly infuriating. They were treating lockdown and other measures as if they had no cost at all. Basically attacking Johnson for not locking down and expressing some incredulity at the idea he might not kindly follow what the scientists have been recommending. It needs to be drummed into these people that the cure can sometimes cause more deaths than the disease. The operations was a success but the patient died is no way to run Government policy.

    I can't believe I am saying this but Blair on PM afterwards was a breath of fresh air. Measured and putting everything into context and commenting that not locking down was exactly the right decision. For all that I am no great fan, at least he gets it.
    That's all true, but in the last three lockdown cycles, the attempt to avoid lockdown on the upswing in the UK (especially in England) looks like it caused a longer, harder lockdown on the downswing. If you let cases get too high, that means that you have to work harder to get them to fall back again.

    There are reasonable reasons to think that this cycle might be different, and anyone sensible will hope that it is. There are still a lot of contact pings going round though (especially in the health system) and we're not home and dry yet. Though the signs are hopeful, and whatever happens next, there's reason to hope this will be over sooner than we might have thought.

    None of this necessarily discredits the boffins, though. To take a betting analogy; more restrictions earlier could have been the value bet. This time it hasn't come in, but if you make enough value bets, you win overall. The approach demanded by Conservative backbenchers could be (not is, but could be) a foolish bet that happens to win. Nice, and there might be information there. But if you keep making them, you lose your shirt.
  • @MaxPB I don't know any 20-30 year old who enjoys lockdown, however introverted. I am sure you can appreciate, I know many
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Yokes said:

    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    There really is some over the top stuff on here tonight.
    You would think it was VE Day or summat.

    Do you mean you think people are getting ahead of themselves or do you think it's no big deal?

    If it does turn out that things are going to be okay re omicron, I'd suggest that is certainly cause for a big celebration. Perhaps it's not as big as some historical events, but if our politicians - or at least some of them - have managed to get past the fear of COVID, that is quite important in my opinion.

    The easy option was to bring in restrictions. That they held their nerve is worth celebrating, in my opinion.
    The former. The signs look encouraging to be sure don't get me wrong. And I'm delighted about that.
    But we are one-nil up at half time and several are on a lap of honour.
    Okay, perhaps it is still too early to say, but I'm fairly confident that we're not going to have big problems like last January.
    No, but with the vaccines I don't see that we ever were going to be like last January.
    However, we still haven't had the Christmas inter-generational and inter-regional mixing. And we are on 100k cases a day. When, anecdotally, folk are avoiding testing to get their Xmas.
    Sorry to be the voice of caution here, but we aren't out of the woods yet.
    The question is how much testing is being done. My understanding, awaiting confirmation from someone who does have insight, is thats its through the roof so how much of the cases are we just picking up what previously we didn't because the testing numbers were lower.
    There are a number of unanswered questions of that kind, yes. Or are people testing because they have cold symptoms? Delta wasn't similar to a head cold. Or are they testing cos they are travelling? Or avoiding it cos they don't want to know?
    Crucially, will we see a surge in other regions, with doubling times similar to the London one? If we do, all at the same time, then cases go sky high nationally.
    As I said, it's half time v Omicron.
  • NEW THREAD

  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    Foxy said:

    "Omicron is roughly two-thirds less likely to cause hospitalisation than the delta variant, the first real-world UK study suggests."

    Telegraph headline.



    Cabinet: 1; SAGE: 0



    You cannot make an evidence based decision until there is evidence to consider.

    True logically and linguistically. But I recommend you read Gary Klein (Streetlights and Shadows) on naturalistic decision-making, expertise, intuition and recognition-primed decision-making. It is a more explicit model of Kahneman's thinking fast vs thinking slow, or System I and System II.

    In other words, based on genuine expertise garnered over long periods of demanding work, we can develop subconscious priming to recognize patterns that our conscious brain is unaware of. Klein cites structures firefighters and naval aviators and even weather forecasters in his research works.

    I am not convinced that this is what is play with the government's decision-making (or with much decision-making by anyone about COVID, as it is so sui generis that no-one has had the data sets to acquire that definition of expertise), but thought it worth pointing out that there are evidence-based decision-making processes even in the absence of explicit evidence.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    FFS, another two Leicester defenders injured. The calamity couple of Vestergard and Bertrand on. Time to lay Leicester 🙄
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