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The pre-Xmas polls won’t help Johnson’s survival chances – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageThe pre-Xmas polls won’t help Johnson’s survival chances – politicalbetting.com

This morning we have had three national voting polls which are featured in the Wikipedia table above.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    Again - Boris has never quit anything of his own accord.

    If he did and if he had any sense he would have done 2 years and left in September citing Brexit Done, Covid Done - that's his place in history sorted.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Third rate like....
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359
    eek said:

    Again - Boris has never quit anything of his own accord.

    If he did and if he had any sense he would have done 2 years and left in September citing Brexit Done, Covid Done - that's his place in history sorted.

    He quit the 2016 leadership election - very much with a push, but still, he didn't fight to the bitter end.
  • I hope the last sentence of the thread will come about and asap
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    eek said:

    Again - Boris has never quit anything of his own accord.

    Apart from his marriages.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    I'm looking forward to the first poll with the Tories down to 29%! (or lower)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    eek said:

    Again - Boris has never quit anything of his own accord.

    If he did and if he had any sense he would have done 2 years and left in September citing Brexit Done, Covid Done - that's his place in history sorted.

    On a point of PB pedantry: re your first sentence, does the EU not count?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,255

    I hope the last sentence of the thread will come about and asap

    You hope that things continue to look black?

    Also, are we still allowed to say that?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Endillion said:

    First.

    Sod off, Boris.

    Are you comparing him to Baldrick?

    Unfair, if so. Baldrick had a cunning plan for every occasion.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Again - Boris has never quit anything of his own accord.

    Apart from his marriages.
    Not sure of the details. Could have been the Mrs Johnsons who took the initiative.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    Again - Boris has never quit anything of his own accord.

    If he did and if he had any sense he would have done 2 years and left in September citing Brexit Done, Covid Done - that's his place in history sorted.

    On a point of PB pedantry: re your first sentence, does the EU not count?
    OK never quit a job of his own accord.
  • Wowsers. 3rd Pfizer jab 3 hours ago has absolutely freight trained me. Sore arm (expected) but also full on brain fuzz fatiigue.
  • Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,255
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    First.

    Sod off, Boris.

    Are you comparing him to Baldrick?

    Unfair, if so. Baldrick had a cunning plan for every occasion.
    The way I wrote it implies that "Sod off" is his surname, not his first name, so perhaps he is the anti-Baldrick?
  • Endillion said:

    I hope the last sentence of the thread will come about and asap

    You hope that things continue to look black?

    Also, are we still allowed to say that?
    No I just want him to leave office
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359
    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    Again - Boris has never quit anything of his own accord.

    If he did and if he had any sense he would have done 2 years and left in September citing Brexit Done, Covid Done - that's his place in history sorted.

    On a point of PB pedantry: re your first sentence, does the EU not count?
    OK never quit a job of his own accord.
    He's on the job far too much for anyone's good
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    maaarsh said:

    eek said:

    Again - Boris has never quit anything of his own accord.

    If he did and if he had any sense he would have done 2 years and left in September citing Brexit Done, Covid Done - that's his place in history sorted.

    He quit the 2016 leadership election - very much with a push, but still, he didn't fight to the bitter end.
    Eh but I covered that earlier - if Boris had continued he wasn't going to win and would have damaged any subsequent leadership race.

    If May had won a contested vote in 2016 her position as leader would have been slightly safer.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359

    Wowsers. 3rd Pfizer jab 3 hours ago has absolutely freight trained me. Sore arm (expected) but also full on brain fuzz fatiigue.

    8 days past my booster, my back is still as hard as a rock, driving some lovely headaches.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,511
    edited December 2021
    I actually think the Labour score on the latest YouGov poll (36%) is pretty disappointing, with the Tory score down as low as 30%.

    However, my disappointment is tempered by seeing LD/Greens on a combined 20%; I don't think many of them will go (back) to Tories. So if I were a Tory I'd be pretty anxious.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,255

    Wowsers. 3rd Pfizer jab 3 hours ago has absolutely freight trained me. Sore arm (expected) but also full on brain fuzz fatiigue.

    Mine was two and a half hours ago, so, er, thanks for the warning.
  • ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kinabalu said:


    What about deterrence though? Shouldn't we be putting the fear of god into Vlad by telling him if he lays a finger on Ukraine he'll get a Trident up his jacksy?

    Yeah, let's have a nuclear war over fucking Ukraine.


    Indeed.

    Personally, I would point out to the East Politics types in Germany, that while we will go along with their sell-Ukraine-down-the-river policies, if they start compromising the Baltics to placate Russia..... Well, we will seek our own guarantees* from Putin.

    *Cash for whatever he wants to invade. How much for Berlin?
    If there's a war in Ukraine, it will be fought by separatists that just happen to have the same equipment as the Russian Army, against Ukrainians that can do a decent Birmingham accent.
    Birmingham Alabama?
    Either or both Birminghams.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858

    Wowsers. 3rd Pfizer jab 3 hours ago has absolutely freight trained me. Sore arm (expected) but also full on brain fuzz fatiigue.

    Careful now. You might inadvertently join the Conservative Party!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 5,188
    maaarsh said:

    Wowsers. 3rd Pfizer jab 3 hours ago has absolutely freight trained me. Sore arm (expected) but also full on brain fuzz fatiigue.

    8 days past my booster, my back is still as hard as a rock, driving some lovely headaches.
    I just got a sore arm, nothing else.
  • Wowsers. 3rd Pfizer jab 3 hours ago has absolutely freight trained me. Sore arm (expected) but also full on brain fuzz fatiigue.

    My 3rd (Moderna) completely wiped me out too. The arm was the sorest I think it’s ever been for a vaccination, and I ran a temperature for a few hours and a burning, desperate tiredness. Still, fingers crossed that shows it’s working.
  • Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Any changes in England will require Parliament to be recalled and that is unlikely to be before the 29th Dec
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,219

    Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Depends what that means for concerts, theatres erc
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,956
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Again - Boris has never quit anything of his own accord.

    Apart from his marriages.
    Are we sure that wasn't more of an unintended consequence of taking on too many additional roles?
  • Wowsers. 3rd Pfizer jab 3 hours ago has absolutely freight trained me. Sore arm (expected) but also full on brain fuzz fatiigue.

    My 3rd (Moderna) completely wiped me out too. The arm was the sorest I think it’s ever been for a vaccination, and I ran a temperature for a few hours and a burning, desperate tiredness. Still, fingers crossed that shows it’s working.
    "desperate" - yes I like that. Have gone back to work and have got various routine emails coming at me and have sat here very puzzled suddenly unsure how to deal with them. My brain desperately wants me to sleep it off, which I think is what I will try and do.
  • Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Absolutely in line with my expectations for England ie something similar to England Stage 3.

    So no requirement to serve outside only, no curfews, no substantial meals. And no lockdown.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,163
    TimT said:

    maaarsh said:

    Wowsers. 3rd Pfizer jab 3 hours ago has absolutely freight trained me. Sore arm (expected) but also full on brain fuzz fatiigue.

    8 days past my booster, my back is still as hard as a rock, driving some lovely headaches.
    I just got a sore arm, nothing else.
    Same for me. I was expecting bad things given two AZN and then Moderna, but nothing other than a sore arm for both my wife and me (she was 2 x Pfizer plus Moderna).

    Wondering whether we're in the control arm of the booster trial :wink:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    Note though Starmer has a lower lead over Boris as preferred PM than Labour has over the Tories.

    I would expect Tory MPs will give Boris until May's local elections to turn it round, if not and the Tories suffer a 1995 or 2019 style local elections meltdown he would face a VONC.

    Remember Major faced a leadership challenge from John Redwood after the 1995 local elections and May was forced to resign in between the 2019 local elections and the even more disastrous for the Tories 2019 European elections
  • Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Any changes in England will require Parliament to be recalled and that is unlikely to be before the 29th Dec
    Although it is likely we will be asked to comply from 28 Dec ie with some retrospective application as we have seen before. Probably announced 27 Dec.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    Selebian said:

    TimT said:

    maaarsh said:

    Wowsers. 3rd Pfizer jab 3 hours ago has absolutely freight trained me. Sore arm (expected) but also full on brain fuzz fatiigue.

    8 days past my booster, my back is still as hard as a rock, driving some lovely headaches.
    I just got a sore arm, nothing else.
    Same for me. I was expecting bad things given two AZN and then Moderna, but nothing other than a sore arm for both my wife and me (she was 2 x Pfizer plus Moderna).

    Wondering whether we're in the control arm of the booster trial :wink:
    Eek twin A got a Moderna booster yesterday - she's laid low with it today (but remember we all probably had Covid in late November). I'm happy that my jab is booked for Jan 2nd by which time 5-6 weeks will have passed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Absolutely in line with my expectations for England ie something similar to England Stage 3.

    So no requirement to serve outside only, no curfews, no substantial meals. And no lockdown.
    🥂 ins’allah
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,681
    South Africa at the height of the pandemic was at Level 5 restrictions. Even with Omicron it has now made the decision to stay at Level 1. Omicron levels are now falling in Gauteng Province. Hospitalisations are finding patients don't require oxygen or ventilation.

    Boris may yet get out of jail - if he was shown not to have panicked in the face of the advice from the wobbly scientists.
  • I actually think the Labour score on the latest YouGov poll (36%) is pretty disappointing, with the Tory score down as low as 30%.

    However, my disappointment is tempered by seeing LD/Greens on a combined 20%; I don't think many of them will go (back) to Tories. So if I were a Tory I'd be pretty anxious.

    Not so sure about that, your Ken Clarke Rory Stewart type Tories are probably about 10% of the electorate and may well hate this particular government more than your average Labour voter does. They will be dispersed across DK, Lab, LD, Green (as a protest and single issue not eco-socialism). Depending on the direction of Tory change they are still quite winnable for the Tories in 2024 under the right new leader.
  • These aren't terrible polls for a mid-term government. They look bad compared to the recent state of permanent culture war where the government's side are riled up about brexit or whatever to match how riled up the opposition's side are about the government, but they haven't really had a chance to do that since they're busy dealing with the rona. I'm sure they'll be able to make up some more culture war stuff once the crisis is over.
  • I actually think the Labour score on the latest YouGov poll (36%) is pretty disappointing, with the Tory score down as low as 30%.

    However, my disappointment is tempered by seeing LD/Greens on a combined 20%; I don't think many of them will go (back) to Tories. So if I were a Tory I'd be pretty anxious.

    I am not anxious this far out from a GE, it would be a different matter if the conservatives have not recovered their ratings by mid 2023
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    I remember a few years ago somebody saying that Boris Johnson was unsuited to be leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister.

    That person was Boris Johnson.

    If only he'd listened to his own advice, we'd all be in a better place.

    Downside of that is you look at 2019 and it's easy to see why Boris ran, no-one else could get Brexit through...

    The sad bit is that as I said earlier by hanging round he's destroying his reputation when he really could have left on a Churchillian like high.
  • HYUFD said:

    Note though Starmer has a lower lead over Boris as preferred PM than Labour has over the Tories.

    I would expect Tory MPs will give Boris until May's local elections to turn it round, if not and the Tories suffer a 1995 or 2019 style local elections meltdown he would face a VONC.

    Remember Major faced a leadership challenge from John Redwood after the 1995 local elections and May was forced to resign in between the 2019 local elections and the even more disastrous for the Tories 2019 European elections

    There is always a heavy incumbency effect on Best PM ratings and any negative for BJ is bad news.
  • Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Again - Boris has never quit anything of his own accord.

    Apart from his marriages.
    Not sure of the details. Could have been the Mrs Johnsons who took the initiative.
    Boris Johnson absolutely quit his first marriage, he was desperate for the divorce to happen asap so he could marry Marina Wheeler and that their first child could be born in wedlock, if not conceived in wedlock, well it was, but someone else's wedlock.

    I think the Johnson married Wheeler ten days after the decree absolute was granted, and little Lara Lettice was born 12 days after the marriage.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    Leon said:

    Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Absolutely in line with my expectations for England ie something similar to England Stage 3.

    So no requirement to serve outside only, no curfews, no substantial meals. And no lockdown.
    🥂 ins’allah
    Are you starting to feel I've called it right again? :smile:
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757

    South Africa at the height of the pandemic was at Level 5 restrictions. Even with Omicron it has now made the decision to stay at Level 1. Omicron levels are now falling in Gauteng Province. Hospitalisations are finding patients don't require oxygen or ventilation.

    Boris may yet get out of jail - if he was shown not to have panicked in the face of the advice from the wobbly scientists.

    Nice spin

    Johnson panicked in a different direction. He is more wary of the swivel-eyed.CRG than he is "wobbly scientists".
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,153
    eek said:

    I remember a few years ago somebody saying that Boris Johnson was unsuited to be leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister.

    That person was Boris Johnson.

    If only he'd listened to his own advice, we'd all be in a better place.

    Downside of that is you look at 2019 and it's easy to see why Boris ran, no-one else could get Brexit through...

    The sad bit is that as I said earlier by hanging round he's destroying his reputation when he really could have left on a Churchillian like high.
    Almost no-one bows out at the right time though. Probably true of other fields as well as politics.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    Wowsers. 3rd Pfizer jab 3 hours ago has absolutely freight trained me. Sore arm (expected) but also full on brain fuzz fatiigue.

    Rest up and make sure you bounce back before Xmas! Good to hear you got it this side of the holiday.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359

    Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Any changes in England will require Parliament to be recalled and that is unlikely to be before the 29th Dec
    Although it is likely we will be asked to comply from 28 Dec ie with some retrospective application as we have seen before. Probably announced 27 Dec.
    Announcing restrictions before parliament has voted would be a great approach to ensure that when parliament meets the next day Brady has a full post bag.
  • On topic, Boris Johnson's leadership ratings is what should really worry him and the Tories.

    He's at Corbyn at his worst levels.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,681
    HYUFD said:

    Note though Starmer has a lower lead over Boris as preferred PM than Labour has over the Tories.

    I would expect Tory MPs will give Boris until May's local elections to turn it round, if not and the Tories suffer a 1995 or 2019 style local elections meltdown he would face a VONC.

    Remember Major faced a leadership challenge from John Redwood after the 1995 local elections and May was forced to resign in between the 2019 local elections and the even more disastrous for the Tories 2019 European elections

    Anyone making much of the LibDem by-election wins should remember the Tory vote-strike in early 2019. May was unable to turn that around - but the voters returned with Boris later that year. If Boris can't fix things, he will be gone. Either way, expect many of the Tory voters to return.....
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359

    South Africa at the height of the pandemic was at Level 5 restrictions. Even with Omicron it has now made the decision to stay at Level 1. Omicron levels are now falling in Gauteng Province. Hospitalisations are finding patients don't require oxygen or ventilation.

    Boris may yet get out of jail - if he was shown not to have panicked in the face of the advice from the wobbly scientists.

    Nice spin

    Johnson panicked in a different direction. He is more wary of the swivel-eyed.CRG than he is "wobbly scientists".
    And that's a bad thing if the swivel eyed ones have called it right?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    edited December 2021
    Afternoon all. Wife and daughter-in-law are busy wrapping presents so I'm keeping WELL out of the way.
    Granddaughters 1-4 (32, 15, 15 and 14) are hitting Bluewater. Can't see the attraction of a shopping centre at Christmas myself, but I worked in a town centre pharmacy with a big cosmetic trade for many years. So I've seen it all!

    Wife and I had our boosters some time ago; no issues apart from a sore arm. She was AZM/AZM/Pfizer, I was Pfizer x 3.

    I expect New Year to be quieter than usual. Even in our relatively quiet small town.
  • Standards Commissioner to JRM

    "As a result, it is my decision that these loans were connected solely to your private
    and personal life. I am also not satisfied that these loans could reasonably be
    thought by others to influence your actions, speeches or votes in Parliament, or your
    actions taken in your capacity as a Member of Parliament; as such, it is my
    conclusion that these loans do not fit with the spirit or purpose of registration. It is
    my conclusion that these loans do not pass the two initial tests laid out above and I
    have therefore decided not to uphold the complaint and find that no breach of
    paragraph 14 has occurred. "
    https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/pcfs/not-upheld/rt-hon-jacob-rees-mogg-mp-not-upheld.pdf
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,511

    I actually think the Labour score on the latest YouGov poll (36%) is pretty disappointing, with the Tory score down as low as 30%.

    However, my disappointment is tempered by seeing LD/Greens on a combined 20%; I don't think many of them will go (back) to Tories. So if I were a Tory I'd be pretty anxious.

    Not so sure about that, your Ken Clarke Rory Stewart type Tories are probably about 10% of the electorate and may well hate this particular government more than your average Labour voter does. They will be dispersed across DK, Lab, LD, Green (as a protest and single issue not eco-socialism). Depending on the direction of Tory change they are still quite winnable for the Tories in 2024 under the right new leader.
    I sort of agree, except there's no sign whatsoever of the Ken Clarke Rory Stewart type Tories, as you call them, taking over before 2024. With the ERG/CRG-types calling the shots, quite the reverse I think.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,681

    South Africa at the height of the pandemic was at Level 5 restrictions. Even with Omicron it has now made the decision to stay at Level 1. Omicron levels are now falling in Gauteng Province. Hospitalisations are finding patients don't require oxygen or ventilation.

    Boris may yet get out of jail - if he was shown not to have panicked in the face of the advice from the wobbly scientists.

    Nice spin

    Johnson panicked in a different direction. He is more wary of the swivel-eyed.CRG than he is "wobbly scientists".
    Or the CRG are listening to South Africa....
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,153

    Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Absolutely in line with my expectations for England ie something similar to England Stage 3.

    So no requirement to serve outside only, no curfews, no substantial meals. And no lockdown.
    I'm not 'grudgingly accepting' those. Partly because they're a gross intrusion on personal liberty, and partly because they're being done to appease the pro-lockdown lobby, rather than because they're actually needed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Absolutely in line with my expectations for England ie something similar to England Stage 3.

    So no requirement to serve outside only, no curfews, no substantial meals. And no lockdown.
    🥂 ins’allah
    Are you starting to feel I've called it right again? :smile:
    Yes. And serious respect is due, IF that happens

    But let’s not tempt Fate, quite yet
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482

    Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Any changes in England will require Parliament to be recalled and that is unlikely to be before the 29th Dec
    Although it is likely we will be asked to comply from 28 Dec ie with some retrospective application as we have seen before. Probably announced 27 Dec.
    Any restrictions announced now will be fair game to be announced every winter for the rest of our lives. I know they’ve worn you all down but please stop with the grudging acceptance of any more of this.

    They must evidence a high likelihood of total catastrophe to have the right to impose any of these sorts of social and economic restrictions. Which they will not be able to. “Just in case” isn’t good enough, there will always be a just in case.
  • There is now a very clear divide between England and Wales and both cannot be correct
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359
    Cookie said:

    Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Absolutely in line with my expectations for England ie something similar to England Stage 3.

    So no requirement to serve outside only, no curfews, no substantial meals. And no lockdown.
    I'm not 'grudgingly accepting' those. Partly because they're a gross intrusion on personal liberty, and partly because they're being done to appease the pro-lockdown lobby, rather than because they're actually needed.
    Yep. And by tomorrow it's looking very likely we'll know for sure the lockdown lobby are wrong again.

    London cases spiked on the 13th, so infections likely from the 11th. When we get the incidentals split for London up to the 21st tomorrow, all the signs are it will confirm no remotely unmanagable hospital surge has followed.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021

    Standards Commissioner to JRM

    "As a result, it is my decision that these loans were connected solely to your private
    and personal life. I am also not satisfied that these loans could reasonably be
    thought by others to influence your actions, speeches or votes in Parliament, or your
    actions taken in your capacity as a Member of Parliament; as such, it is my
    conclusion that these loans do not fit with the spirit or purpose of registration. It is
    my conclusion that these loans do not pass the two initial tests laid out above and I
    have therefore decided not to uphold the complaint and find that no breach of
    paragraph 14 has occurred. "
    https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/pcfs/not-upheld/rt-hon-jacob-rees-mogg-mp-not-upheld.pdf

    Feels right - utterly wrong on many levels but the loans won't impact how JRM voted. It's not like Owen Paterson or Boris where the money is coming from someone else who may be expecting something for that money.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    edited December 2021

    South Africa at the height of the pandemic was at Level 5 restrictions. Even with Omicron it has now made the decision to stay at Level 1. Omicron levels are now falling in Gauteng Province. Hospitalisations are finding patients don't require oxygen or ventilation.

    Boris may yet get out of jail - if he was shown not to have panicked in the face of the advice from the wobbly scientists.

    Nice spin

    Johnson panicked in a different direction. He is more wary of the swivel-eyed.CRG than he is "wobbly scientists".
    Absolutely. He's never 'caved' to the scientists. The skew has always been if anything the other way and it is again now. Sometimes this made him act too late (as in March and Dec last year) and sometimes it meant he got it bang on right (as in July this year). This is the history of the pandemic in England under this government. It's why all of the PB "oh ffs we're gonna be locked down forever" talk is irrational drivel pipe.
  • I actually think the Labour score on the latest YouGov poll (36%) is pretty disappointing, with the Tory score down as low as 30%.

    However, my disappointment is tempered by seeing LD/Greens on a combined 20%; I don't think many of them will go (back) to Tories. So if I were a Tory I'd be pretty anxious.

    Not so sure about that, your Ken Clarke Rory Stewart type Tories are probably about 10% of the electorate and may well hate this particular government more than your average Labour voter does. They will be dispersed across DK, Lab, LD, Green (as a protest and single issue not eco-socialism). Depending on the direction of Tory change they are still quite winnable for the Tories in 2024 under the right new leader.
    I sort of agree, except there's no sign whatsoever of the Ken Clarke Rory Stewart type Tories, as you call them, taking over before 2024. With the ERG/CRG-types calling the shots, quite the reverse I think.
    I don't expect them to take over at all but might be they happy under Sunak, Hunt, or Wallace and an end to the Trumpian comedic stuff? Some, perhaps most, will.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,992
    edited December 2021
    Cookie said:

    Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Absolutely in line with my expectations for England ie something similar to England Stage 3.

    So no requirement to serve outside only, no curfews, no substantial meals. And no lockdown.
    I'm not 'grudgingly accepting' those. Partly because they're a gross intrusion on personal liberty, and partly because they're being done to appease the pro-lockdown lobby, rather than because they're actually needed.
    You should be pleased you do not live in Wales
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    maaarsh said:

    South Africa at the height of the pandemic was at Level 5 restrictions. Even with Omicron it has now made the decision to stay at Level 1. Omicron levels are now falling in Gauteng Province. Hospitalisations are finding patients don't require oxygen or ventilation.

    Boris may yet get out of jail - if he was shown not to have panicked in the face of the advice from the wobbly scientists.

    Nice spin

    Johnson panicked in a different direction. He is more wary of the swivel-eyed.CRG than he is "wobbly scientists".
    And that's a bad thing if the swivel eyed ones have called it right?
    They'd rather we all go into lockdown than let the 100 Tories be right about not needing to panic.
  • There is now a very clear divide between England and Wales and both cannot be correct

    Which is right, England or Wales? Reminds me of Blur vs Oasis where the winner was of course Pulp...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108

    I actually think the Labour score on the latest YouGov poll (36%) is pretty disappointing, with the Tory score down as low as 30%.

    However, my disappointment is tempered by seeing LD/Greens on a combined 20%; I don't think many of them will go (back) to Tories. So if I were a Tory I'd be pretty anxious.

    Not so sure about that, your Ken Clarke Rory Stewart type Tories are probably about 10% of the electorate and may well hate this particular government more than your average Labour voter does. They will be dispersed across DK, Lab, LD, Green (as a protest and single issue not eco-socialism). Depending on the direction of Tory change they are still quite winnable for the Tories in 2024 under the right new leader.
    I sort of agree, except there's no sign whatsoever of the Ken Clarke Rory Stewart type Tories, as you call them, taking over before 2024. With the ERG/CRG-types calling the shots, quite the reverse I think.
    You mean that the next Conservative leader will be to the swivel-eyed side of the incumbent.

    Terrifying thought.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    It's very minor in the grand scheme, but good to see the JCVI giving every chance to the virus in primary schools.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359
    South African in hospital figure up 300 today, but flat in Gauteng. Must be quite near a peak nationally now.
  • Javid is asked if people should make New Year plans: "The best advice to everyone is continue to remain cautious and keep looking forward to Christmas - as the prime minister said, no new restrictions before Christmas and beyond that we will just keep the situation under review."
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Absolutely in line with my expectations for England ie something similar to England Stage 3.

    So no requirement to serve outside only, no curfews, no substantial meals. And no lockdown.
    🥂 ins’allah
    Are you starting to feel I've called it right again? :smile:
    Yes. And serious respect is due, IF that happens

    But let’s not tempt Fate, quite yet
    Always makes me laugh when otherwise rational people (or even @Leon) worry about tempting fate - as if Fate were a sentient being with very little willpower.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,656
    edited December 2021
    moonshine said:

    Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Any changes in England will require Parliament to be recalled and that is unlikely to be before the 29th Dec
    Although it is likely we will be asked to comply from 28 Dec ie with some retrospective application as we have seen before. Probably announced 27 Dec.
    Any restrictions announced now will be fair game to be announced every winter for the rest of our lives. I know they’ve worn you all down but please stop with the grudging acceptance of any more of this.

    They must evidence a high likelihood of total catastrophe to have the right to impose any of these sorts of social and economic restrictions. Which they will not be able to. “Just in case” isn’t good enough, there will always be a just in case.
    I do see the argument. I suppose I am on the side of “expect the worst but hope for the best.” I don’t think we’ll escape from some sort of restrictions this year, and if we’re going to have them I’d rather have this sort of stuff than the “lock yourself inside with nothing but the TV for company” stuff that is deeply damaging. I’m sure some would accuse me of being ground down but if I’m able to go and see friends in the pub, my relatives and go for a short stay away in the countryside then I will personally take that. I accept this is a self-centred and “small picture” viewpoint though.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359
    maaarsh said:

    South African in hospital figure up 300 today, but flat in Gauteng. Must be quite near a peak nationally now.

    Number ventilated down to 239 from 244
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    Javid is asked if people should make New Year plans: "The best advice to everyone is continue to remain cautious and keep looking forward to Christmas - as the prime minister said, no new restrictions before Christmas and beyond that we will just keep the situation under review."

    Translates as: "No, don't make plans for New Year".
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359

    Javid is asked if people should make New Year plans: "The best advice to everyone is continue to remain cautious and keep looking forward to Christmas - as the prime minister said, no new restrictions before Christmas and beyond that we will just keep the situation under review."

    Translates as: "No, don't make plans for New Year".
    Obviously he can neither announce what hasn't been agreed, nor rule out what may end up happening.

    But I find his form of words leans the opposite way to your intepretation, which is surprising coming from him, but perhaps part of the same positioning that had him tweeting about meetings with more skeptical scientists.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,219
    Just saw the JCVI news. FFS. Liberal handwriting and British exceptionalism at its worst. How long are our children going to have to endure disrupted education?
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 565

    Wowsers. 3rd Pfizer jab 3 hours ago has absolutely freight trained me. Sore arm (expected) but also full on brain fuzz fatiigue.

    My 3rd (Moderna) completely wiped me out too. The arm was the sorest I think it’s ever been for a vaccination, and I ran a temperature for a few hours and a burning, desperate tiredness. Still, fingers crossed that shows it’s working.
    I had my third jab (also Moderna, now had 3x Moderna) yesterday lunchtime. Not as bad as the second when I had a huge fever, but definitely very fatigued today and don't really have the energy to do anything.

    Had to call in sick this morning which I didn't really want to do, but at least I've done the right thing this side of Christmas.
  • moonshine said:

    Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Any changes in England will require Parliament to be recalled and that is unlikely to be before the 29th Dec
    Although it is likely we will be asked to comply from 28 Dec ie with some retrospective application as we have seen before. Probably announced 27 Dec.
    Any restrictions announced now will be fair game to be announced every winter for the rest of our lives. I know they’ve worn you all down but please stop with the grudging acceptance of any more of this.

    They must evidence a high likelihood of total catastrophe to have the right to impose any of these sorts of social and economic restrictions. Which they will not be able to. “Just in case” isn’t good enough, there will always be a just in case.
    Couldn’t agree more. They started out as a draconian and barley tolerable measure of last resort. I’m not sure they’ll go back into that box for a long while…
  • Javid is asked if people should make New Year plans: "The best advice to everyone is continue to remain cautious and keep looking forward to Christmas - as the prime minister said, no new restrictions before Christmas and beyond that we will just keep the situation under review."

    Translates as: "No, don't make plans for New Year".
    Translates to me as "Up to you, but don't blame us either way!".
  • moonshine said:

    Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Any changes in England will require Parliament to be recalled and that is unlikely to be before the 29th Dec
    Although it is likely we will be asked to comply from 28 Dec ie with some retrospective application as we have seen before. Probably announced 27 Dec.
    Any restrictions announced now will be fair game to be announced every winter for the rest of our lives. I know they’ve worn you all down but please stop with the grudging acceptance of any more of this.

    They must evidence a high likelihood of total catastrophe to have the right to impose any of these sorts of social and economic restrictions. Which they will not be able to. “Just in case” isn’t good enough, there will always be a just in case.
    The decision on 28th is certainly going to be a profound moment. I am trying to remain optimistic that omi data by then will show it is sufficiently will-o-wisp that lockdown can be avoided.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,658

    There is now a very clear divide between England and Wales and both cannot be correct

    Which is right, England or Wales? Reminds me of Blur vs Oasis where the winner was of course Pulp...
    Can’t agree more, about Pulp that is!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757
    maaarsh said:

    South Africa at the height of the pandemic was at Level 5 restrictions. Even with Omicron it has now made the decision to stay at Level 1. Omicron levels are now falling in Gauteng Province. Hospitalisations are finding patients don't require oxygen or ventilation.

    Boris may yet get out of jail - if he was shown not to have panicked in the face of the advice from the wobbly scientists.

    Nice spin

    Johnson panicked in a different direction. He is more wary of the swivel-eyed.CRG than he is "wobbly scientists".
    And that's a bad thing if the swivel eyed ones have called it right?
    ...but if they have called in right on the toss of a coin rather than empirical evidence - yes!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,163

    Just saw the JCVI news. FFS. Liberal handwriting and British exceptionalism at its worst. How long are our children going to have to endure disrupted education?

    What's the JCVI news? Something on vaccinating younger children?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572

    Just saw the JCVI news. FFS. Liberal handwriting and British exceptionalism at its worst. How long are our children going to have to endure disrupted education?

    What news?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866
    Alistair's Week 50 Final numbers

    Admissions: 8348 (+
    maaarsh said:

    South African in hospital figure up 300 today, but flat in Gauteng. Must be quite near a peak nationally now.

    Wait until I make my official ruling
  • eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    South Africa at the height of the pandemic was at Level 5 restrictions. Even with Omicron it has now made the decision to stay at Level 1. Omicron levels are now falling in Gauteng Province. Hospitalisations are finding patients don't require oxygen or ventilation.

    Boris may yet get out of jail - if he was shown not to have panicked in the face of the advice from the wobbly scientists.

    Nice spin

    Johnson panicked in a different direction. He is more wary of the swivel-eyed.CRG than he is "wobbly scientists".
    Absolutely. He's never 'caved' to the scientists. The skew has always been if anything the other way and it is again now. Sometimes this made him act too late (as in March and Dec last year) and sometimes it meant he got it bang right (as in July this year). This is the history of the pandemic in England under this government. It's why all of the PB "oh ffs we're gonna be locked down forever" talk is just so much irrational drivel pipe.
    I've commented multiple times that it seems Boris waits until a decision is absolutely unavoidable before making it.

    This time round he seems to have made the correct call for reasons utterly outside his control - delaying things should hopeful confirm that Omicron isn't an issue for the UK because enough people have been vaccinated and/or have had Covid already so the symptoms are mild.
    If Boris waited until a decision was unavoidable then why didn't he wait on removing lockdown restrictions and mask guidance in the summer? Almost every other country in Europe kept some restrictions and kept mask guidance, even the Scots and Welsh did too, so if Boris is so unwilling to make a decision why didn't he do the same?

    Waiting to impose restrictions until they're absolutely necessary is completely the right thing to do and not a weakness. Removing restrictions as soon as you can is a strength too. If a lockdown can be avoided, it absolutely should and must be and it should only ever be a last resort and not a "precautionary principle".
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,847
    edited December 2021

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. HHave ospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Absolutely in line with my expectations for England ie something similar to England Stage 3.

    So no requirement to serve outside only, no curfews, no substantial meals. And no lockdown.
    🥂 ins’allah
    Are you starting to feel I've called it right again? :smile:
    Yes. And serious respect is due, IF that happens

    But let’s not tempt Fate, quite yet
    Always makes me laugh when otherwise rational people (or even @Leon) worry about tempting fate - as if Fate were a sentient being with very little willpower.
    Have you never watched a cricket match? Particularly one with England involved.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359

    maaarsh said:

    South Africa at the height of the pandemic was at Level 5 restrictions. Even with Omicron it has now made the decision to stay at Level 1. Omicron levels are now falling in Gauteng Province. Hospitalisations are finding patients don't require oxygen or ventilation.

    Boris may yet get out of jail - if he was shown not to have panicked in the face of the advice from the wobbly scientists.

    Nice spin

    Johnson panicked in a different direction. He is more wary of the swivel-eyed.CRG than he is "wobbly scientists".
    And that's a bad thing if the swivel eyed ones have called it right?
    ...but if they have called in right on the toss of a coin rather than empirical evidence - yes!
    Our swivel eyed loons appear to have coin tossed to the same position as the virtuous scientists of the USA, amongst others.

    They also seem to place far more weight on empirical evidence (as opposed to models) than SAGE do presently.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,219
    Selebian said:

    Just saw the JCVI news. FFS. Liberal handwriting and British exceptionalism at its worst. How long are our children going to have to endure disrupted education?

    What's the JCVI news? Something on vaccinating younger children?
    They’ve said most under 12s are not getting jabbed
  • SNP are irrelevant, Lib Dems, Labour and SDLP would form the government
  • rpjs said:

    There is now a very clear divide between England and Wales and both cannot be correct

    Which is right, England or Wales? Reminds me of Blur vs Oasis where the winner was of course Pulp...
    Can’t agree more, about Pulp that is!
    So as the winner of Blur vs Oasis was Pulp, then the winner of England vs Wales is...

    Scotland!
  • Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Absolutely in line with my expectations for England ie something similar to England Stage 3.

    So no requirement to serve outside only, no curfews, no substantial meals. And no lockdown.
    🥂 ins’allah
    Are you starting to feel I've called it right again? :smile:
    Yes. And serious respect is due, IF that happens

    But let’s not tempt Fate, quite yet
    Always makes me laugh when otherwise rational people (or even @Leon) worry about tempting fate - as if Fate were a sentient being with very little willpower.
    Indeed she is.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    edited December 2021
    On the qcovid.org calculator I came out as 1 in 34,483 risk of dying from covid or 1 in 679 risk of dying if I catch it.

    https://qcovid.org

    Playing around with the inputs, since I have none of the co-morbidities the big factor that makes much difference is age. Losing 20kg would not make any difference. So much for obesity being the big factor.

    I am probably misunderstanding but don't those figures imply I only have a 1 in 50 chance of catching covid (679 / 34483)? If so, that seems stupidly low. I was assuming we are all going to get it at some stage.
  • Boris Johnson is evidence of private schools pushing certain people to levels way above their intelligence
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Welsh restrictions from 26th probably point to the sort of mid-ground I am expecting England to end up at on 27th/28th. Hospitality indoors but limited to rule of 6. Guidance against household mixing but no force of law (except gatherings over 30). Social distancing and mask wearing.

    I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.

    Absolutely in line with my expectations for England ie something similar to England Stage 3.

    So no requirement to serve outside only, no curfews, no substantial meals. And no lockdown.
    🥂 ins’allah
    Are you starting to feel I've called it right again? :smile:
    Yes. And serious respect is due, IF that happens

    But let’s not tempt Fate, quite yet
    Always makes me laugh when otherwise rational people (or even @Leon) worry about tempting fate - as if Fate were a sentient being with very little willpower.
    I envisage Fate the same way I envisage the PB mods. Dim witted, insecure beings inexplicably granted enormous power, and given to bouts of querulous wrath, so it’s best to avoid their attention, if at all possible
    Lol! Nicely done.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 5,188
    Hope not!! Mine was 3 x Pfizer
    Selebian said:

    TimT said:

    maaarsh said:

    Wowsers. 3rd Pfizer jab 3 hours ago has absolutely freight trained me. Sore arm (expected) but also full on brain fuzz fatiigue.

    8 days past my booster, my back is still as hard as a rock, driving some lovely headaches.
    I just got a sore arm, nothing else.
    Same for me. I was expecting bad things given two AZN and then Moderna, but nothing other than a sore arm for both my wife and me (she was 2 x Pfizer plus Moderna).

    Wondering whether we're in the control arm of the booster trial :wink:
This discussion has been closed.