The pre-Xmas polls won’t help Johnson’s survival chances – politicalbetting.com
The pre-Xmas polls won’t help Johnson’s survival chances – politicalbetting.com
This morning we have had three national voting polls which are featured in the Wikipedia table above.
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Sod off, Boris.
If he did and if he had any sense he would have done 2 years and left in September citing Brexit Done, Covid Done - that's his place in history sorted.
Also, are we still allowed to say that?
Unfair, if so. Baldrick had a cunning plan for every occasion.
I’m still not on board with the idea of restrictions but if they’re something like that I can grudgingly accept them as fairly minimal disruption I think.
If May had won a contested vote in 2016 her position as leader would have been slightly safer.
However, my disappointment is tempered by seeing LD/Greens on a combined 20%; I don't think many of them will go (back) to Tories. So if I were a Tory I'd be pretty anxious.
That person was Boris Johnson.
If only he'd listened to his own advice, we'd all be in a better place.
So no requirement to serve outside only, no curfews, no substantial meals. And no lockdown.
Wondering whether we're in the control arm of the booster trial
I would expect Tory MPs will give Boris until May's local elections to turn it round, if not and the Tories suffer a 1995 or 2019 style local elections meltdown he would face a VONC.
Remember Major faced a leadership challenge from John Redwood after the 1995 local elections and May was forced to resign in between the 2019 local elections and the even more disastrous for the Tories 2019 European elections
Boris may yet get out of jail - if he was shown not to have panicked in the face of the advice from the wobbly scientists.
The sad bit is that as I said earlier by hanging round he's destroying his reputation when he really could have left on a Churchillian like high.
I think the Johnson married Wheeler ten days after the decree absolute was granted, and little Lara Lettice was born 12 days after the marriage.
Johnson panicked in a different direction. He is more wary of the swivel-eyed.CRG than he is "wobbly scientists".
He's at Corbyn at his worst levels.
Granddaughters 1-4 (32, 15, 15 and 14) are hitting Bluewater. Can't see the attraction of a shopping centre at Christmas myself, but I worked in a town centre pharmacy with a big cosmetic trade for many years. So I've seen it all!
Wife and I had our boosters some time ago; no issues apart from a sore arm. She was AZM/AZM/Pfizer, I was Pfizer x 3.
I expect New Year to be quieter than usual. Even in our relatively quiet small town.
"As a result, it is my decision that these loans were connected solely to your private
and personal life. I am also not satisfied that these loans could reasonably be
thought by others to influence your actions, speeches or votes in Parliament, or your
actions taken in your capacity as a Member of Parliament; as such, it is my
conclusion that these loans do not fit with the spirit or purpose of registration. It is
my conclusion that these loans do not pass the two initial tests laid out above and I
have therefore decided not to uphold the complaint and find that no breach of
paragraph 14 has occurred. "
https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/pcfs/not-upheld/rt-hon-jacob-rees-mogg-mp-not-upheld.pdf
But let’s not tempt Fate, quite yet
They must evidence a high likelihood of total catastrophe to have the right to impose any of these sorts of social and economic restrictions. Which they will not be able to. “Just in case” isn’t good enough, there will always be a just in case.
London cases spiked on the 13th, so infections likely from the 11th. When we get the incidentals split for London up to the 21st tomorrow, all the signs are it will confirm no remotely unmanagable hospital surge has followed.
Terrifying thought.
This time round he seems to have made the correct call for reasons utterly outside his control - delaying things should hopeful confirm that Omicron isn't an issue for the UK because enough people have been vaccinated and/or have had Covid already so the symptoms are mild.
But I find his form of words leans the opposite way to your intepretation, which is surprising coming from him, but perhaps part of the same positioning that had him tweeting about meetings with more skeptical scientists.
Had to call in sick this morning which I didn't really want to do, but at least I've done the right thing this side of Christmas.
Now there is no longer a right wing challenger party peeling off Conservative votes, and at a GE Labour could reasonably expect to gain as many votes back from the Greens as the Conservatives could from Reform. Labour and the LDs are between them polling in the 48%-52% range in these three polls, and the potential for tactical lending of votes has revived in the absence of Corbyn and the fading memories of 2010-15. So even though the Conservatives are now as low only as 30% compared to a low of 17% under May, their position is much weaker so long as Johnson continues.
Admissions: 8348 (+ Wait until I make my official ruling
Waiting to impose restrictions until they're absolutely necessary is completely the right thing to do and not a weakness. Removing restrictions as soon as you can is a strength too. If a lockdown can be avoided, it absolutely should and must be and it should only ever be a last resort and not a "precautionary principle".
They also seem to place far more weight on empirical evidence (as opposed to models) than SAGE do presently.
Scotland!
https://qcovid.org
Playing around with the inputs, since I have none of the co-morbidities the big factor that makes much difference is age. Losing 20kg would not make any difference. So much for obesity being the big factor.
I am probably misunderstanding but don't those figures imply I only have a 1 in 50 chance of catching covid (679 / 34483)? If so, that seems stupidly low. I was assuming we are all going to get it at some stage.