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The front pages sum up the worries about Christmas – politicalbetting.com

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  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    "The Telegraph understands “dozens” of Tory MPs are prepared to send their letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 committee, if a lockdown is announced."

    Telegraph

    There won’t be a lockdown.
    The predictions were pure epidemiological hysterical.
    Thats my feeling too. Ironically, Johnson will be desparate to NOT cancel Christmas, but that will also probably give time for the evidence that we won't need lockdown.

    Look to SA. The evidence is there.
    Oh the evidence is there in SA - equally the evidence was already there that once Omicron had infected very few people the chances of it not going exponential without an immediate strict lockdown was zero, so we were already too late on December 1st.

    However, nothing will stop Boris and co doing something stupid next week, firstly because I'm in Scotland so that makes it a definite and secondly because they just can't stick to a decision.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s hard to see how anyone sees Truss as a future PM. She’s clearly ambitious, but beyond that seems devoid of ideas, integrity, talent or a connection with the public.

    And we've just tried that.
    How is Andy Street getting on in Birmingham? It would be good to have national leaders who have achieved something in real life before politics. Not always a guarantee of success I grant you.
    Wasn’t Andy Street in charge of the Tories’ North Shropshire campaign?
    Not sure, noones associated him with it in any way though
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Brexit is dead, isn’t it?
    I mean, really dead.

    I think Stuart’s right. In 10 years time nobody will remember having voted for it. Not even Charles.

    Boris is a corpse, too. He’ll be lucky to last into Spring.

    What a frabjous day, though it’s a bit chilly here in Portugal after several days of balmy, t-shirt weather.

    I don't see how brexit is dead. Its over. We are out. To make brexit dead surely implies rejoin?
    Brexit as a political and ideological project is dead.

    It’s now an administrative clear up job, with an inexorable pull back toward closer arrangements with the EU.
    Which is fine. I think that's what the majority of people want - we don't really want to keep fighting with our friends over the water. We've always wanted trade and co-operation.

    I don't get your point though. Its like saying WW2 was over in 1947. Of course it was.
    It was the governing force in this country from 2016 until 2021. During that time “Brexit” justified a multiple of sins because of the “the will of the people”.

    That’s all over now.
    Brexit hasn’t worked, nobody cares about the details, and it’s totemic exponent is a corpse.

    Brexit is like Jacobinism after 1748.
    Or the Branch Davidians are Waco, Texas.

    History.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376
    MattW said:

    Given the refusnik status of so many PL footballers (25%?), would it make sense to close down football unless the entire team is on a vaccination course. That would significantly reduce public interactions,

    Stop them playing, and stop them being paid.

    Radio 5 live news was reporting some clubs are saying they will only sign jabbed players.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So the defence here is that they had all been working *very* hard and it wasn't a hospital ward or anything like that so, y'know, why not break out the cheese and wine?

    I'm not sure that is helping, Dom.


    https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1472847239571771395
    https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1472838884014841861

    God alone knows why Raab bothers to defend this shit-show. I guess, though, he goes with Johnson.
    Unfortunately when you holiday on the job your opportunity to resign on principle is limited.
    It was a working holiday.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,145
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Back to the photo in the garden, the pair sitting on the grass in the top right look very cosy. A cause of embarrassment at home, perhaps?

    According to Raab, whatever they are doing is DEFINITELY work...
    Which is a problem because why is Carrie in a work meeting?
    I thought she set Govt policy. :smile:
  • Mr. Tubbs, the impact of that race was so powerful it distorted time. Felt like days had passed waiting for the result of the appeals to come through.

    Mildly surprised there isn't a market on Masi going or staying. While obviously the biggest example, there have been lots of contentious calls this year (including earlier in the same race).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,819
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:



    It's with my friend that I can see (to some extent) that side of London - last time I was with him we spent a morning tracing the remains of the dockyard in between modern light industry and residential flats as a sort of urban palimpsest at Woolwich before going along to the Arsenal to see where cannon used to be cast and engineer officer cadets trained at the Arsenal.

    i recommend - seriously - doing a daytime tour of Jack the Ripper murder sites

    It’s a tiny corner of the eastern edge of the City, where it meets Whitechapel, Spitalfields, but it is absolutely electric with life. Skyscrapers collide with the rag trade and Brick Lane curry houses. Bengalis meet the bankers. Shoreditch hipster bars wrestle with bagel joints, sweat shops, Michelin star restaurants and Islamic primary schools. it is equally brilliant, alarming, unique, depressing, uplifting and surreal and you can see it all by following the brutal murders of the Ripper as he stalked the streets, butchering hookers

    Also, great food. Everywhere
    FPT - many thanks to Leon; had already wondered about Spitalfields for the Huguenots and silkweaving.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    moonshine said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So the defence here is that they had all been working *very* hard and it wasn't a hospital ward or anything like that so, y'know, why not break out the cheese and wine?

    I'm not sure that is helping, Dom.


    https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1472847239571771395
    https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1472838884014841861

    God alone knows why Raab bothers to defend this shit-show. I guess, though, he goes with Johnson.
    Well, let's hope so.
    It’s almost worth moving to Esher just so you can vote against him.
    I could petition the BC to move the SStaffs boundary 50 yards and vote against Williamson instead though...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    edited December 2021
    MattW said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Back to the photo in the garden, the pair sitting on the grass in the top right look very cosy. A cause of embarrassment at home, perhaps?

    According to Raab, whatever they are doing is DEFINITELY work...
    Which is a problem because why is Carrie in a work meeting?
    I thought she set Govt policy. :smile:
    While true, she isn't an employee nor a paid consultant so why is she in what Raab says was a business meeting?

    This is little different from Watergate remember, it's the coverups, excuses and lies that get you as much as the original story - and this is another excuse..
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Brexit is dead, isn’t it?
    I mean, really dead.

    I think Stuart’s right. In 10 years time nobody will remember having voted for it. Not even Charles.

    Boris is a corpse, too. He’ll be lucky to last into Spring.

    What a frabjous day, though it’s a bit chilly here in Portugal after several days of balmy, t-shirt weather.

    I don't see how brexit is dead. Its over. We are out. To make brexit dead surely implies rejoin?
    Brexit as a political and ideological project is dead.

    It’s now an administrative clear up job, with an inexorable pull back toward closer arrangements with the EU.
    Which is fine. I think that's what the majority of people want - we don't really want to keep fighting with our friends over the water. We've always wanted trade and co-operation.

    I don't get your point though. Its like saying WW2 was over in 1947. Of course it was.
    It was the governing force in this country from 2016 until 2021. During that time “Brexit” justified a multiple of sins because of the “the will of the people”.

    That’s all over now.
    Brexit hasn’t worked, nobody cares about the details, and it’s totemic exponent is a corpse.

    Brexit is like Jacobinism after 1748.
    Or the Branch Davidians are Waco, Texas.

    History.
    What do you mean - hasn't worked? Brexit was an end in itself - to remove the UK from the European Union, which it has done.
    You may feel it was the wrong thing to do. You may think it makes us poorer as a country. You may think what you like, but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,145
    edited December 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: 140,942 Covid cases announced for London in the week to Dec 19, more than three times as many as the 42,455 in the first week of this month, as Omicron has surged through the city. Real number of infections estimated to be significantly higher.
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-cases-covid-omicron-increase-boris-johnson-nhs-b972875.html

    Balance always helps people believe you, Scott. The next para from your story.

    A total of 21,594 new infections were announced on Sunday, down on the previous three days, which may raise hopes that Londoners being more cautious are stopping the rise, though figures at weekend are sometimes lower.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989

    but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.

    If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Given the refusnik status of so many PL footballers (25%?), would it make sense to close down football unless the entire team is on a vaccination course. That would significantly reduce public interactions,

    Stop them playing, and stop them being paid.

    Radio 5 live news was reporting some clubs are saying they will only sign jabbed players.
    I wonder if they are having trouble getting unjabbed new signings insured?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Andy_JS said:

    Jonathan said:

    Gove?

    The last Brexiteer standing. Mad as a box of frogs. Anti establishment. Well connected. Down with the kids.

    Could he do it?

    No, he doesn't have enough support with MPs.
    Remember that, to go to the membership, you don't have to have a high level of support, just more than the 3rd placed candidate.

    So, if Sunak. for the sake of argument, bagged around 200 MP votes, the second candidate need only bag around 80 to go through. If first bags more votes, second needs fewer.

    As a Tory leadership candidate, you don't need to run faster than the Polar Bear.

    Thus the panicked and slightly ineffective "Stop X" thinking that pervades during a leadership election.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Scott_xP said:

    but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.

    If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU. Its complicated by the GFA. There is no easy solution.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    moonshine said:

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Given the refusnik status of so many PL footballers (25%?), would it make sense to close down football unless the entire team is on a vaccination course. That would significantly reduce public interactions,

    Stop them playing, and stop them being paid.

    Radio 5 live news was reporting some clubs are saying they will only sign jabbed players.
    I wonder if they are having trouble getting unjabbed new signings insured?
    Klopp being a strong manager.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: 140,942 Covid cases announced for London in the week to Dec 19, more than three times as many as the 42,455 in the first week of this month, as Omicron has surged through the city. Real number of infections estimated to be significantly higher.
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-cases-covid-omicron-increase-boris-johnson-nhs-b972875.html

    Balance always helps people believe you, Scott. The next para from your story.

    A total of 21,594 new infections were announced on Sunday, down on the previous three days, which may raise hopes that Londoners being more cautious are stopping the rise, though figures at weekend are sometimes lower.
    People's incapacity to learn is truly astonishing.

    Nearly two years into the pandemic, people are still saying "but the numbers went down on Sunday".
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    kamski said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    Yesterday someone was asking why are all the photos arriving now. I think this answers the question incredibly well


    JP Asher
    @jp_asher
    On May 15 last year, I was alone in a hospice room with my cancer-stricken wife, a young mother who, due to Covid restrictions, had had to have goodbye visits from our two small children one at a time. She died in the night a few hours after this photograph was taken.

    There is now zero chance Boris is going to be prime minister at the next election. If there was much chance these stories would be being kept back and published in the run up to the next election.

    And remember there are millions of these stories all of which say one rule for Boris and another for everyone else.

    The thing about these stories is that they are all totally one dimensional - “I had an awful time therefore nobody else should, especially politicians”.

    When my father died in November 2020 he had spent the previous three months in hospital whilst slowly on his way out. His last months outside of hospital were grim as he was very vulnerable and so shielding and so had no joy in his life (me being his son didn’t help….) and then his last months of life in hospital were such that visits were limited and the last times he spent with his family we were covered in masks and gloves etc so he couldn’t even feel our touch or see our smiles.

    I wouldn’t want this situation for anyone but…..

    To compare and criticise a bunch of people sitting outside their office, fairly well spaced, having a drink after work is nuts. Of course everyone in hospital couldn’t “mingle” and have a carousel of visitors as it would put them and other patients at risk. It’s ridiculous to say “I couldn’t do this at a very sad time so they shouldn’t have been doing that in a completely different circumstance”.

    I get that the majority of people don’t gather for a drink after work in their office garden but I would imagine that if most could they would.

    This morning I even heard one of the today presenters, Robinson no doubt, level the complaint that they were sitting there with smiles on their faces whilst people were suffering - ffs, is everyone supposed to be in sack-cloth and ashes and permanently miserable during Covid??

    So people went through grim times. People would have gone through grim times at some point anyway and whilst made easier without covid restrictions they would still be grim times. I don’t want the world to stop and people stop living - in fact if anything covid is an argument for living as much as you can whilst you can.

    The parties last Christmas were bloody stupid, Boris is a shit PM but to compare and contrast after work drinks in Downing Street garden with limits on loved ones in hospital is silly.
    What about, for example, being able to attend a funeral at that time?
    What about it? Would them not having drinks change that? My father’s funeral had to be very small and distanced and a small wake after - he was an immensely popular man who would in normal times have had a very heavily attended funeral.

    It didn’t change the fact he died.

    I have missed family funerals in the past for various reasons (not choice) and it’s not ideal but life (and death clearly) isn’t ideal. Throughout history people haven’t been able to attend funerals of their loved ones - so again not sure everyone should be banned from having an after work drink and smiling……
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,819

    ydoethur said:

    ping said:

    UK Polling Report closing down;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

    Sad but not unexpected.

    I used to be a regular over at Anthony’s blog in the first years, probably 2004-2007ish. I actually started my own blog shortly before both UK Polling Report and PB, and along with Freedom and Whisky and a few other Scottish political blogs, I used to spend all day on them. (2004 was my “year of cancer”, so I had a lot of time on my hands.)

    The only one still going strong is PB. I wonder what the lifecycle of a blog is? Is PB an infant? A teenager? In the prime of life? A middle-aged tosser? Or SeanT?
    If PB were SeanT it would have relaunched as flintknapping.com and devoted half its headers to discussing "hot teens" and most of the rest to a full on war on woke.
    That's an exaggeration. At least 30% would be Covid catastrophising.
    Yeah, for a right wing nutter, Sean is a bit of a pansy. Remember that Man Cold he had the other week? The faux drama was almost pre-Raphaelite in its sickly sentimentality and bogus histrionics.
    It was the females who had to lie in cold baths while the males painted them, IIRC.

    Talking about the PRs, did I ever draw this to your attention? Some Gaels taking the pish.

    https://laudatortemporisacti.blogspot.com/2019/09/an-ancient-highland-toast.html
  • Thread:

    Although she's a future leadership contender with a strong incentive to tack right on Europe & go in hard, after chats with both sides I think @trussliz assuming EU brief *could* actually be quite positive for UK-EU relations 1/

    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1472820762444718081?s=20
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989

    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU.

    Why do we need a "trading arrangement with the EU" ?

    I'll give you a clue. 1 word. 6 letters. Starts with a B. Rhymes with exit.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Brexit is dead, isn’t it?
    I mean, really dead.

    I think Stuart’s right. In 10 years time nobody will remember having voted for it. Not even Charles.

    Boris is a corpse, too. He’ll be lucky to last into Spring.

    What a frabjous day, though it’s a bit chilly here in Portugal after several days of balmy, t-shirt weather.

    I don't see how brexit is dead. Its over. We are out. To make brexit dead surely implies rejoin?
    Brexit as a political and ideological project is dead.

    It’s now an administrative clear up job, with an inexorable pull back toward closer arrangements with the EU.
    Which is fine. I think that's what the majority of people want - we don't really want to keep fighting with our friends over the water. We've always wanted trade and co-operation.

    I don't get your point though. Its like saying WW2 was over in 1947. Of course it was.
    It was the governing force in this country from 2016 until 2021. During that time “Brexit” justified a multiple of sins because of the “the will of the people”.

    That’s all over now.
    Brexit hasn’t worked, nobody cares about the details, and it’s totemic exponent is a corpse.

    Brexit is like Jacobinism after 1748.
    Or the Branch Davidians are Waco, Texas.

    History.
    What do you mean - hasn't worked? Brexit was an end in itself - to remove the UK from the European Union, which it has done.
    You may feel it was the wrong thing to do. You may think it makes us poorer as a country. You may think what you like, but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.
    Brexit hasn’t worked in the sense that it has failed it’s economic, trade, deregulating, and egalitarian objectives.

    Nor has any equilibrium been reached; it’s just left an untidy and embarrassing mess which will take another 10 or 15 years to clean up.

    I would not be surprised if the U.K. rejoined, although I am not ready to predict that yet. The EU would need to change for that to happen.
  • Scott_xP said:

    but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.

    If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
    That's not Brexit. Brexit is over.

    Our future relationship with the rest of the world will never be over, though you're too ignorant to see the difference it seems. We will always have a relationship with our neighbours, it just doesn't need to be in the EU anymore, that's what you fail to understand.
  • Scott_xP said:

    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU.

    Why do we need a "trading arrangement with the EU" ?

    I'll give you a clue. 1 word. 6 letters. Starts with a B. Rhymes with exit.
    Because you want to trade with your neighbours.

    Next question please.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Chris said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: 140,942 Covid cases announced for London in the week to Dec 19, more than three times as many as the 42,455 in the first week of this month, as Omicron has surged through the city. Real number of infections estimated to be significantly higher.
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-cases-covid-omicron-increase-boris-johnson-nhs-b972875.html

    Balance always helps people believe you, Scott. The next para from your story.

    A total of 21,594 new infections were announced on Sunday, down on the previous three days, which may raise hopes that Londoners being more cautious are stopping the rise, though figures at weekend are sometimes lower.
    People's incapacity to learn is truly astonishing.

    Nearly two years into the pandemic, people are still saying "but the numbers went down on Sunday".
    While that's fair, his point was about the lack of balance from @Scott_xP. Which is fair.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    boulay said:

    kamski said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    Yesterday someone was asking why are all the photos arriving now. I think this answers the question incredibly well


    JP Asher
    @jp_asher
    On May 15 last year, I was alone in a hospice room with my cancer-stricken wife, a young mother who, due to Covid restrictions, had had to have goodbye visits from our two small children one at a time. She died in the night a few hours after this photograph was taken.

    There is now zero chance Boris is going to be prime minister at the next election. If there was much chance these stories would be being kept back and published in the run up to the next election.

    And remember there are millions of these stories all of which say one rule for Boris and another for everyone else.

    The thing about these stories is that they are all totally one dimensional - “I had an awful time therefore nobody else should, especially politicians”.

    When my father died in November 2020 he had spent the previous three months in hospital whilst slowly on his way out. His last months outside of hospital were grim as he was very vulnerable and so shielding and so had no joy in his life (me being his son didn’t help….) and then his last months of life in hospital were such that visits were limited and the last times he spent with his family we were covered in masks and gloves etc so he couldn’t even feel our touch or see our smiles.

    I wouldn’t want this situation for anyone but…..

    To compare and criticise a bunch of people sitting outside their office, fairly well spaced, having a drink after work is nuts. Of course everyone in hospital couldn’t “mingle” and have a carousel of visitors as it would put them and other patients at risk. It’s ridiculous to say “I couldn’t do this at a very sad time so they shouldn’t have been doing that in a completely different circumstance”.

    I get that the majority of people don’t gather for a drink after work in their office garden but I would imagine that if most could they would.

    This morning I even heard one of the today presenters, Robinson no doubt, level the complaint that they were sitting there with smiles on their faces whilst people were suffering - ffs, is everyone supposed to be in sack-cloth and ashes and permanently miserable during Covid??

    So people went through grim times. People would have gone through grim times at some point anyway and whilst made easier without covid restrictions they would still be grim times. I don’t want the world to stop and people stop living - in fact if anything covid is an argument for living as much as you can whilst you can.

    The parties last Christmas were bloody stupid, Boris is a shit PM but to compare and contrast after work drinks in Downing Street garden with limits on loved ones in hospital is silly.
    What about, for example, being able to attend a funeral at that time?
    What about it? Would them not having drinks change that? My father’s funeral had to be very small and distanced and a small wake after - he was an immensely popular man who would in normal times have had a very heavily attended funeral.

    It didn’t change the fact he died.

    I have missed family funerals in the past for various reasons (not choice) and it’s not ideal but life (and death clearly) isn’t ideal. Throughout history people haven’t been able to attend funerals of their loved ones - so again not sure everyone should be banned from having an after work drink and smiling……
    The drinks and parties don't matter.

    What matters for the tories is voters reactions to their parties and the continual reporting tells me that its popular with their readers which means it's probably impacting voting intentions.

    It wouldn't surprise me if Boris and co are sub 30% fairly soon and it's still going to be downhill from there.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,819

    Brexit is dead, isn’t it?
    I mean, really dead.

    I think Stuart’s right. In 10 years time nobody will remember having voted for it. Not even Charles.

    Boris is a corpse, too. He’ll be lucky to last into Spring.

    What a frabjous day, though it’s a bit chilly here in Portugal after several days of balmy, t-shirt weather.

    I don't see how brexit is dead. Its over. We are out. To make brexit dead surely implies rejoin?
    Brexit as a political and ideological project is dead.

    It’s now an administrative clear up job, with an inexorable pull back toward closer arrangements with the EU.
    Which is fine. I think that's what the majority of people want - we don't really want to keep fighting with our friends over the water. We've always wanted trade and co-operation.

    I don't get your point though. Its like saying WW2 was over in 1947. Of course it was.
    It was the governing force in this country from 2016 until 2021. During that time “Brexit” justified a multiple of sins because of the “the will of the people”.

    That’s all over now.
    Brexit hasn’t worked, nobody cares about the details, and it’s totemic exponent is a corpse.

    Brexit is like Jacobinism after 1748.
    Or the Branch Davidians are Waco, Texas.

    History.
    Jacobitism surely?
  • Scott_xP said:

    but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.

    If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU. Its complicated by the GFA. There is no easy solution.
    And if the EU had paid attention to the importance of E-W links and not just N-S ones as laid out in the original NI Joint Report we wouldn't be in the mess we are.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Frost resigned because he's "absolutely confident this country has a great future under Boris Johnson's leadership"...

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1472852607467204608
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,783
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Gove?

    The last Brexiteer standing. Mad as a box of frogs. Anti establishment. Well connected. Done with the kids.

    Could he do it?

    Not popular.

    I think Sunak, Hunt, Javid or Mordaunt.
    None of those are exactly popular either. Gove has Impeccable Brexit credentials and perhaps able to draw on the dark arts of Cummings.

    If he wants it, surely he’s a candidate.
    Unlike any of the others mentioned in the previous post doesn't Gove come over as wierd and therefore not a good selection.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    edited December 2021
    Pro_Rata said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Jonathan said:

    Gove?

    The last Brexiteer standing. Mad as a box of frogs. Anti establishment. Well connected. Down with the kids.

    Could he do it?

    No, he doesn't have enough support with MPs.
    Remember that, to go to the membership, you don't have to have a high level of support, just more than the 3rd placed candidate.

    So, if Sunak. for the sake of argument, bagged around 200 MP votes, the second candidate need only bag around 80 to go through. If first bags more votes, second needs fewer.

    As a Tory leadership candidate, you don't need to run faster than the Polar Bear.

    Thus the panicked and slightly ineffective "Stop X" thinking that pervades during a leadership election.
    Although Gove could only manage 75 MPs last time and he probably won't get much support from the new Tory MPs elected in 2019. So it's unlikely IMO that he could get enough votes to get in the top two.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Scott_xP said:

    but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.

    If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU. Its complicated by the GFA. There is no easy solution.
    Brexit is the trade deals. While some people may think Brexit is over - it really isn't. Wait until January 1st when the real paperwork is required for both sides and France really start to be anal about errors.
  • ping said:

    Bridgend result UK GE 2019

    Lamppost man 18,193
    Labour 17,036
    Lib Dem 2,368
    Plaid Cymru 2,013
    Brexit 1,811
    Green 815

    Bridgend result Welsh GE 2021

    Labour 12,388
    Lamppost man’s syndicate accomplice 8,324
    Plaid Cymru 3,091
    Ind 3,046
    Ind 1,064
    Lib Dem 782
    Refuk 534
    Gwlad 232

    Looks like an easy Lab Gain in the current Johnson zeitgeist.

    Ye

    My tissue would be;

    Lab 1/8
    Con 6/1
    Ld 10/1
    Pc 20/1
    1/8 looks like free money.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Scott_xP said:

    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU.

    Why do we need a "trading arrangement with the EU" ?

    I'll give you a clue. 1 word. 6 letters. Starts with a B. Rhymes with exit.
    ? Brexit is over, says @Gardenwalker. I say - yes of course it is, what's your point.

    What's your point @Scott_xP? That we should never do trading arrangements with other coutries or trading blocs?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    eek said:

    Brexit is the trade deals.

    Say that again, louder, for the folks at the back...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,819
    kjh said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Gove?

    The last Brexiteer standing. Mad as a box of frogs. Anti establishment. Well connected. Done with the kids.

    Could he do it?

    Not popular.

    I think Sunak, Hunt, Javid or Mordaunt.
    None of those are exactly popular either. Gove has Impeccable Brexit credentials and perhaps able to draw on the dark arts of Cummings.

    If he wants it, surely he’s a candidate.
    Unlike any of the others mentioned in the previous post doesn't Gove come over as wierd and therefore not a good selection.
    Also strong links with a certain Cummings D.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,131
    edited December 2021
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Bollocks. Another one bites the dust.

    You seem surprised. This was lost ages ago.
    This was lost before they ever boarded the plane, but I had hoped they would at least make 230.
    This thread reminds me of dismal and desperate state politics and cricket was early-mid nineties. It was hard to believe that in just a few years we would have Labour utterly dominant and the greatest ashes series. 🤞
    I remember widespread predictions in 1992-3 that Labour would never be in government again. The tone of Harry Enfield's hugely popular sketches seemed to incarnate the growing anti-Tory spirit of the times, though.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Brexit is dead, isn’t it?
    I mean, really dead.

    I think Stuart’s right. In 10 years time nobody will remember having voted for it. Not even Charles.

    Boris is a corpse, too. He’ll be lucky to last into Spring.

    What a frabjous day, though it’s a bit chilly here in Portugal after several days of balmy, t-shirt weather.

    I don't see how brexit is dead. Its over. We are out. To make brexit dead surely implies rejoin?
    Brexit as a political and ideological project is dead.

    It’s now an administrative clear up job, with an inexorable pull back toward closer arrangements with the EU.
    Which is fine. I think that's what the majority of people want - we don't really want to keep fighting with our friends over the water. We've always wanted trade and co-operation.

    I don't get your point though. Its like saying WW2 was over in 1947. Of course it was.
    It was the governing force in this country from 2016 until 2021. During that time “Brexit” justified a multiple of sins because of the “the will of the people”.

    That’s all over now.
    Brexit hasn’t worked, nobody cares about the details, and it’s totemic exponent is a corpse.

    Brexit is like Jacobinism after 1748.
    Or the Branch Davidians are Waco, Texas.

    History.
    What do you mean - hasn't worked? Brexit was an end in itself - to remove the UK from the European Union, which it has done.
    You may feel it was the wrong thing to do. You may think it makes us poorer as a country. You may think what you like, but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.
    Brexit hasn’t worked in the sense that it has failed it’s economic, trade, deregulating, and egalitarian objectives.

    Nor has any equilibrium been reached; it’s just left an untidy and embarrassing mess which will take another 10 or 15 years to clean up.

    I would not be surprised if the U.K. rejoined, although I am not ready to predict that yet. The EU would need to change for that to happen.
    Such a big change was always going to take time.

    Plus - we are STILL in a global pandemic.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Dominic Raab’s justification for the garden gathering: “It’s a place of work. They’re all in suits, predominantly in formal attire... They might have a drink after the formal business has ended”. https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1472844792790978562/video/1

    If having a drink with colleagues after work isn’t socialising I’ve really lost a couple of decades

    https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1472853959769477122
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    boulay said:

    kamski said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    Yesterday someone was asking why are all the photos arriving now. I think this answers the question incredibly well


    JP Asher
    @jp_asher
    On May 15 last year, I was alone in a hospice room with my cancer-stricken wife, a young mother who, due to Covid restrictions, had had to have goodbye visits from our two small children one at a time. She died in the night a few hours after this photograph was taken.

    There is now zero chance Boris is going to be prime minister at the next election. If there was much chance these stories would be being kept back and published in the run up to the next election.

    And remember there are millions of these stories all of which say one rule for Boris and another for everyone else.

    The thing about these stories is that they are all totally one dimensional - “I had an awful time therefore nobody else should, especially politicians”.

    When my father died in November 2020 he had spent the previous three months in hospital whilst slowly on his way out. His last months outside of hospital were grim as he was very vulnerable and so shielding and so had no joy in his life (me being his son didn’t help….) and then his last months of life in hospital were such that visits were limited and the last times he spent with his family we were covered in masks and gloves etc so he couldn’t even feel our touch or see our smiles.

    I wouldn’t want this situation for anyone but…..

    To compare and criticise a bunch of people sitting outside their office, fairly well spaced, having a drink after work is nuts. Of course everyone in hospital couldn’t “mingle” and have a carousel of visitors as it would put them and other patients at risk. It’s ridiculous to say “I couldn’t do this at a very sad time so they shouldn’t have been doing that in a completely different circumstance”.

    I get that the majority of people don’t gather for a drink after work in their office garden but I would imagine that if most could they would.

    This morning I even heard one of the today presenters, Robinson no doubt, level the complaint that they were sitting there with smiles on their faces whilst people were suffering - ffs, is everyone supposed to be in sack-cloth and ashes and permanently miserable during Covid??

    So people went through grim times. People would have gone through grim times at some point anyway and whilst made easier without covid restrictions they would still be grim times. I don’t want the world to stop and people stop living - in fact if anything covid is an argument for living as much as you can whilst you can.

    The parties last Christmas were bloody stupid, Boris is a shit PM but to compare and contrast after work drinks in Downing Street garden with limits on loved ones in hospital is silly.
    What about, for example, being able to attend a funeral at that time?
    What about it? Would them not having drinks change that? My father’s funeral had to be very small and distanced and a small wake after - he was an immensely popular man who would in normal times have had a very heavily attended funeral.

    It didn’t change the fact he died.

    I have missed family funerals in the past for various reasons (not choice) and it’s not ideal but life (and death clearly) isn’t ideal. Throughout history people haven’t been able to attend funerals of their loved ones - so again not sure everyone should be banned from having an after work drink and smiling……
    The argument is one of causation - their failure to stick to the rules may have caused deaths. You can say that is a bit far fetched but that invites the response, what's the point of the rules then
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "@BBCBreakfast
    "This wasn't a social occasion, it was staff having a drink after meetings"

    Deputy PM Dominic Raab defends a new photo showing the PM and colleagues having a gathering in the No 10 garden during lockdown.

    https://bbc.in/32lXeiA"

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1472838884014841861

    Thankfully, I've never had a normal job so I don't know how these things work but I assume normal office meetings do not traditionally conclude with getting slaughtered on wine.
    Sometimes they do. Sometimes they include having staff on maternity bring their baby in. But thats the problem - definitely a social occasion which was banned.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.

    If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU. Its complicated by the GFA. There is no easy solution.
    Brexit is the trade deals. While some people may think Brexit is over - it really isn't. Wait until January 1st when the real paperwork is required for both sides and France really start to be anal about errors.
    So hang on - is @Gardenwalker wrong then?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989

    What's your point @Scott_xP?

    That BoZo just appointed Truss as Brexit minister because Brexit isn't over.

    It's not that complicated...
  • Scott_xP said:

    but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.

    If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU. Its complicated by the GFA. There is no easy solution.
    The partitioning of Ireland seemed like a good idea once.

    As did Brexit.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    Brexit is the trade deals.

    Say that again, louder, for the folks at the back...
    Patronize much? People who disagree with you aren't always automatically stupid.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    A significant chunk of disposable income inequality in Scotland comes from travel costs and time.

    People in cities tend to benefit from public expenditure on buses/trains etc, while the costs of owning and running a car in rural areas just keeps increasing (tax on fuel etc). It's quite a regressive balance.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    moonshine said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So the defence here is that they had all been working *very* hard and it wasn't a hospital ward or anything like that so, y'know, why not break out the cheese and wine?

    I'm not sure that is helping, Dom.


    https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1472847239571771395
    https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1472838884014841861

    God alone knows why Raab bothers to defend this shit-show. I guess, though, he goes with Johnson.
    Well, let's hope so.
    It’s almost worth moving to Esher just so you can vote against him.
    I'm happy to stay where I am and vote against Philip Davies.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989

    People who disagree with you aren't always automatically stupid.

    Some of them seem to be performatively stupid though
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Scott_xP said:

    People who disagree with you aren't always automatically stupid.

    Some of them seem to be performatively stupid though
    So who out of @Gardenwalker and yourself do you think is right about brexit being over?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Having a work meeting today?

    Things you’ll need:
    ✅ Wine
    ✅ Cheese
    ✅ Wife
    ✅ Baby

    Things you won’t need
    ❌ Laptop
    ❌ Notebook
    ❌ Pens & paper
    ❌ Whiteboard https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1472849055797678083/photo/1
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,656
    Scott_xP said:

    Frost resigned because he's "absolutely confident this country has a great future under Boris Johnson's leadership"...

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1472852607467204608

    File under 'We have every confidence in the manager'.
  • Scott_xP said:

    What's your point @Scott_xP?

    That BoZo just appointed Truss as Brexit minister because Brexit isn't over.

    It's not that complicated...
    She's not been appointed Brexit minister as no such post exists anymore.

    But don't let facts get in your way Scott.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    Scott_xP said:

    Dominic Raab’s justification for the garden gathering: “It’s a place of work. They’re all in suits, predominantly in formal attire... They might have a drink after the formal business has ended”. https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1472844792790978562/video/1

    If having a drink with colleagues after work isn’t socialising I’ve really lost a couple of decades

    https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1472853959769477122

    Keep going Raab! The man who has never knowingly turned down the opportunity to dig the government into a deeper hole than it's already in.

    Yeah, it's a work meeting. That'll really convince people who were wondering whether the government might be a tad arrogant and economical with the truth.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,819
    Eabhal said:

    A significant chunk of disposable income inequality in Scotland comes from travel costs and time.

    People in cities tend to benefit from public expenditure on buses/trains etc, while the costs of owning and running a car in rural areas just keeps increasing (tax on fuel etc). It's quite a regressive balance.

    Even living inside/outside the cooncil-owned Lothian Buses area makes a noticeable difference in terns of exposure to unregulated bus fares and reliability of bus services, including the sudden elimination or change of services by the commercial firms.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,819
    Scott_xP said:

    Having a work meeting today?

    Things you’ll need:
    ✅ Wine
    ✅ Cheese
    ✅ Wife
    ✅ Baby

    Things you won’t need
    ❌ Laptop
    ❌ Notebook
    ❌ Pens & paper
    ❌ Whiteboard https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1472849055797678083/photo/1

    You forgot garden.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    TimS said:

    Keep going Raab! The man who has never knowingly turned down the opportunity to dig the government into a deeper hole than it's already in.

    Yeah, it's a work meeting. That'll really convince people who were wondering whether the government might be a tad arrogant and economical with the truth.

    “Gruelling conditions” @DominicRaab. They’re taking us for mugs. https://twitter.com/martinmccluskey/status/1472854770754990089/photo/1
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424

    Scott_xP said:

    but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.

    If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU. Its complicated by the GFA. There is no easy solution.
    The partitioning of Ireland seemed like a good idea once.

    As did Brexit.
    I think, to be fair, that the partitioning of Ireland was a 'least bad'. The alternatives included a three-way Civil War.

    Whereas there are few, if any, upsides to Brexit.
  • eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.

    If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU. Its complicated by the GFA. There is no easy solution.
    Brexit is the trade deals. While some people may think Brexit is over - it really isn't. Wait until January 1st when the real paperwork is required for both sides and France really start to be anal about errors.
    Something they have vast experience in. The whole point of the single market was to remove their ability to act like utter twats.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    IshmaelZ said:

    boulay said:

    kamski said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    Yesterday someone was asking why are all the photos arriving now. I think this answers the question incredibly well


    JP Asher
    @jp_asher
    On May 15 last year, I was alone in a hospice room with my cancer-stricken wife, a young mother who, due to Covid restrictions, had had to have goodbye visits from our two small children one at a time. She died in the night a few hours after this photograph was taken.

    There is now zero chance Boris is going to be prime minister at the next election. If there was much chance these stories would be being kept back and published in the run up to the next election.

    And remember there are millions of these stories all of which say one rule for Boris and another for everyone else.

    The thing about these stories is that they are all totally one dimensional - “I had an awful time therefore nobody else should, especially politicians”.

    When my father died in November 2020 he had spent the previous three months in hospital whilst slowly on his way out. His last months outside of hospital were grim as he was very vulnerable and so shielding and so had no joy in his life (me being his son didn’t help….) and then his last months of life in hospital were such that visits were limited and the last times he spent with his family we were covered in masks and gloves etc so he couldn’t even feel our touch or see our smiles.

    I wouldn’t want this situation for anyone but…..

    To compare and criticise a bunch of people sitting outside their office, fairly well spaced, having a drink after work is nuts. Of course everyone in hospital couldn’t “mingle” and have a carousel of visitors as it would put them and other patients at risk. It’s ridiculous to say “I couldn’t do this at a very sad time so they shouldn’t have been doing that in a completely different circumstance”.

    I get that the majority of people don’t gather for a drink after work in their office garden but I would imagine that if most could they would.

    This morning I even heard one of the today presenters, Robinson no doubt, level the complaint that they were sitting there with smiles on their faces whilst people were suffering - ffs, is everyone supposed to be in sack-cloth and ashes and permanently miserable during Covid??

    So people went through grim times. People would have gone through grim times at some point anyway and whilst made easier without covid restrictions they would still be grim times. I don’t want the world to stop and people stop living - in fact if anything covid is an argument for living as much as you can whilst you can.

    The parties last Christmas were bloody stupid, Boris is a shit PM but to compare and contrast after work drinks in Downing Street garden with limits on loved ones in hospital is silly.
    What about, for example, being able to attend a funeral at that time?
    What about it? Would them not having drinks change that? My father’s funeral had to be very small and distanced and a small wake after - he was an immensely popular man who would in normal times have had a very heavily attended funeral.

    It didn’t change the fact he died.

    I have missed family funerals in the past for various reasons (not choice) and it’s not ideal but life (and death clearly) isn’t ideal. Throughout history people haven’t been able to attend funerals of their loved ones - so again not sure everyone should be banned from having an after work drink and smiling……
    The argument is one of causation - their failure to stick to the rules may have caused deaths. You can say that is a bit far fetched but that invites the response, what's the point of the rules then
    From my point of view the whole garden party thing just illustrates how stupid some of the rules were last spring, and what fools we were taken for.

    Even at the time it was self-evidently pretty safe to hang about in a garden drinking on a warm evening. The people in Downing Street were exercising common sense. The problem is that at the time we still had police shouting at people for sitting on park benches, and putting security tape around children's play areas. We were taken for mugs.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    Worldwide, deaths from covid now at a lower level than any time since October 2020 (worldometers data - not the most reliable source, but if it was out I would expect 2020 to be more of an underestimate than 2021.)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Kay Burley interrogating Raab is hilarious. She should have been sacked. She has zero credibility when it comes to this.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989

    The whole point of the single market was to remove their ability to act like utter twats.

    Thatcher's greatest achievement.

    Utterly destroyed by those who worshipped her...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    edited December 2021

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.

    If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU. Its complicated by the GFA. There is no easy solution.
    Brexit is the trade deals. While some people may think Brexit is over - it really isn't. Wait until January 1st when the real paperwork is required for both sides and France really start to be anal about errors.
    Something they have vast experience in. The whole point of the single market was to remove their ability to act like utter twats.
    +1 For the French there is literally zero downside to being arsy with the paperwork. You only have to arrive at CDG once to discover that fact.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Scott_xP said:

    but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.

    If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU. Its complicated by the GFA. There is no easy solution.
    The partitioning of Ireland seemed like a good idea once.

    As did Brexit.
    I think, to be fair, that the partitioning of Ireland was a 'least bad'. The alternatives included a three-way Civil War.

    Whereas there are few, if any, upsides to Brexit.
    Perhaps one upside is to Brexit will be the final interment of Brexit ideology. Brexit’s death may mean the Tory Party become electable again.
  • eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.

    If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU. Its complicated by the GFA. There is no easy solution.
    Brexit is the trade deals. While some people may think Brexit is over - it really isn't. Wait until January 1st when the real paperwork is required for both sides and France really start to be anal about errors.
    Something they have vast experience in. The whole point of the single market was to remove their ability to act like utter twats.
    If that was its whole point, then decades of experience tells us it failed in that point, so no wonder we did the right thing.

    The French acting like utter twats isn't some new post-Brexit development.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    Scott_xP said:

    Having a work meeting today?

    Things you’ll need:
    ✅ Wine
    ✅ Cheese
    ✅ Wife
    ✅ Baby

    Things you won’t need
    ❌ Laptop
    ❌ Notebook
    ❌ Pens & paper
    ❌ Whiteboard https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1472849055797678083/photo/1

    Apparently it used to be compulsory to get drunk at lunchtime if you worked in Fleet Street until about 20 years ago.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Scott_xP said:

    The whole point of the single market was to remove their ability to act like utter twats.

    Thatcher's greatest achievement.

    Utterly destroyed by those who worshipped her...
    One of the bizarre elements of the death cult.
    Cult-leader Boris even noted this explicitly in one of his “speeches”.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.

    If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU. Its complicated by the GFA. There is no easy solution.
    Brexit is the trade deals. While some people may think Brexit is over - it really isn't. Wait until January 1st when the real paperwork is required for both sides and France really start to be anal about errors.
    Something they have vast experience in. The whole point of the single market was to remove their ability to act like utter twats.
    +1 For the French there is literally zero downside to being arsy with the paperwork. You only have to arrive at CDG once to discover that fact.
    Not really, UK exports to the EU are leeching to Belgium and other countries. France isn't the only game in town.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    Chris said:

    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: 140,942 Covid cases announced for London in the week to Dec 19, more than three times as many as the 42,455 in the first week of this month, as Omicron has surged through the city. Real number of infections estimated to be significantly higher.
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-cases-covid-omicron-increase-boris-johnson-nhs-b972875.html

    Balance always helps people believe you, Scott. The next para from your story.

    A total of 21,594 new infections were announced on Sunday, down on the previous three days, which may raise hopes that Londoners being more cautious are stopping the rise, though figures at weekend are sometimes lower.
    People's incapacity to learn is truly astonishing.

    Nearly two years into the pandemic, people are still saying "but the numbers went down on Sunday".
    Yes and no. True the media definitely haven't learned about day of week effects, but on the other hand last week the daily rises were so sharp - 2 day doubling - that they were completely overwhelming the usual DOW effect. So just getting back to a state where we're regularly 50% above the week before counts as a slowdown in Omicron terms.

    We are effectively in a voluntary semi-lockdown here in London already, so I'd be surprised if there isn't an effect on cases. Most people I know are either self-isolating with Covid already, or locking themselves away for fear of the dreaded 2 red lines spoiling Christmas.

    Just been speaking to colleagues in Denmark where it is also really ripping through, London-style. Everyone knows several people who have it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    tlg86 said:

    Kay Burley interrogating Raab is hilarious. She should have been sacked. She has zero credibility when it comes to this.

    Every single minister needs to laugh at her, and constantly remind the audience that she’s an expert on parties, especially birthday parties indoors without a hint of being work-related.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    A significant chunk of disposable income inequality in Scotland comes from travel costs and time.

    People in cities tend to benefit from public expenditure on buses/trains etc, while the costs of owning and running a car in rural areas just keeps increasing (tax on fuel etc). It's quite a regressive balance.

    Even living inside/outside the cooncil-owned Lothian Buses area makes a noticeable difference in terns of exposure to unregulated bus fares and reliability of bus services, including the sudden elimination or change of services by the commercial firms.
    Indeed. Though, on the other hand, a reason people on higher incomes have increased their savings rate so much during the pandemic is lack of expenditure on their cars. There are three groups, maybe:

    1 - Rural poor, dependent on cars
    2- city dwellers who benefit from subsidised transport
    3- richer people who drive even when there is decent public transport available.

    We need to hit group 3 while leaving group 1 alone
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Dura_Ace said:

    It's amusing how the Telegraph put Truss in the FMBs next to the 'PM' headline as if she already had the gig.

    It's a fascinating photo. Truss is projecting the trappings of high office. Yet there's this overwhelming sense of fake - the gilt chairs and Truss herself.

    It looks like the usual suspect press is setting up Truss to take over from Johnson, based on these photos.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    TimS said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    boulay said:

    kamski said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    Yesterday someone was asking why are all the photos arriving now. I think this answers the question incredibly well


    JP Asher
    @jp_asher
    On May 15 last year, I was alone in a hospice room with my cancer-stricken wife, a young mother who, due to Covid restrictions, had had to have goodbye visits from our two small children one at a time. She died in the night a few hours after this photograph was taken.

    There is now zero chance Boris is going to be prime minister at the next election. If there was much chance these stories would be being kept back and published in the run up to the next election.

    And remember there are millions of these stories all of which say one rule for Boris and another for everyone else.

    The thing about these stories is that they are all totally one dimensional - “I had an awful time therefore nobody else should, especially politicians”.

    When my father died in November 2020 he had spent the previous three months in hospital whilst slowly on his way out. His last months outside of hospital were grim as he was very vulnerable and so shielding and so had no joy in his life (me being his son didn’t help….) and then his last months of life in hospital were such that visits were limited and the last times he spent with his family we were covered in masks and gloves etc so he couldn’t even feel our touch or see our smiles.

    I wouldn’t want this situation for anyone but…..

    To compare and criticise a bunch of people sitting outside their office, fairly well spaced, having a drink after work is nuts. Of course everyone in hospital couldn’t “mingle” and have a carousel of visitors as it would put them and other patients at risk. It’s ridiculous to say “I couldn’t do this at a very sad time so they shouldn’t have been doing that in a completely different circumstance”.

    I get that the majority of people don’t gather for a drink after work in their office garden but I would imagine that if most could they would.

    This morning I even heard one of the today presenters, Robinson no doubt, level the complaint that they were sitting there with smiles on their faces whilst people were suffering - ffs, is everyone supposed to be in sack-cloth and ashes and permanently miserable during Covid??

    So people went through grim times. People would have gone through grim times at some point anyway and whilst made easier without covid restrictions they would still be grim times. I don’t want the world to stop and people stop living - in fact if anything covid is an argument for living as much as you can whilst you can.

    The parties last Christmas were bloody stupid, Boris is a shit PM but to compare and contrast after work drinks in Downing Street garden with limits on loved ones in hospital is silly.
    What about, for example, being able to attend a funeral at that time?
    What about it? Would them not having drinks change that? My father’s funeral had to be very small and distanced and a small wake after - he was an immensely popular man who would in normal times have had a very heavily attended funeral.

    It didn’t change the fact he died.

    I have missed family funerals in the past for various reasons (not choice) and it’s not ideal but life (and death clearly) isn’t ideal. Throughout history people haven’t been able to attend funerals of their loved ones - so again not sure everyone should be banned from having an after work drink and smiling……
    The argument is one of causation - their failure to stick to the rules may have caused deaths. You can say that is a bit far fetched but that invites the response, what's the point of the rules then
    From my point of view the whole garden party thing just illustrates how stupid some of the rules were last spring, and what fools we were taken for.

    Even at the time it was self-evidently pretty safe to hang about in a garden drinking on a warm evening. The people in Downing Street were exercising common sense. The problem is that at the time we still had police shouting at people for sitting on park benches, and putting security tape around children's play areas. We were taken for mugs.
    These were the rules at the time (someone found a video)

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1472846386387468288
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.

    If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU. Its complicated by the GFA. There is no easy solution.
    Brexit is the trade deals. While some people may think Brexit is over - it really isn't. Wait until January 1st when the real paperwork is required for both sides and France really start to be anal about errors.
    Something they have vast experience in. The whole point of the single market was to remove their ability to act like utter twats.
    +1 For the French there is literally zero downside to being arsy with the paperwork. You only have to arrive at CDG once to discover that fact.
    Not really, UK exports to the EU are leeching to Belgium and other countries. France isn't the only game in town.
    Belgium and the Netherlands have seen an opportunity to capitalise on the French being French. Well done to them.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Like last year, the government is leaving it too late. There are just five days left to the big day and families need to know in advance how much food to buy, and whether to post cards and presents or hand them over in person. And in a couple of days time, any announcement will likely be lost in the noise of the run-up to Christmas because people have got too much else on rather than being glued to The Saj's ambiguous murmurings or Professor Whitty's next slide please.

    Johnson follows. Sturgeon and Drakeford lead.
    Surely not!

    The Johnson enthusiasts were preening themselves that Scotland and Wales were Covid-failed states whilst Bozzaland was ticking along nicely and SA hospitisation and mortality data confirmed his genius only a week ago.

    There again "a week is a long time in politics".
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    FF43 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    It's amusing how the Telegraph put Truss in the FMBs next to the 'PM' headline as if she already had the gig.

    It's a fascinating photo. Truss is projecting the trappings of high office. Yet there's this overwhelming sense of fake - the gilt chairs and Truss herself.

    It looks like the usual suspect press is setting up Truss to take over from Johnson, based on these photos.
    Absolutely.
    I’m not sure why she has friends in the press.
    Maybe it’s just that’s more photogenic.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s hard to see how anyone sees Truss as a future PM. She’s clearly ambitious, but beyond that seems devoid of ideas, integrity, talent or a connection with the public.

    And we've just tried that.
    How is Andy Street getting on in Birmingham? It would be good to have national leaders who have achieved something in real life before politics. Not always a guarantee of success I grant you.
    Wasn’t Andy Street in charge of the Tories’ North Shropshire campaign?
    So more Andy cul-de-sac?
    Yes, they should pursue other avenues.
  • eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.

    If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU. Its complicated by the GFA. There is no easy solution.
    Brexit is the trade deals. While some people may think Brexit is over - it really isn't. Wait until January 1st when the real paperwork is required for both sides and France really start to be anal about errors.
    Something they have vast experience in. The whole point of the single market was to remove their ability to act like utter twats.
    If that was its whole point, then decades of experience tells us it failed in that point, so no wonder we did the right thing.

    The French acting like utter twats isn't some new post-Brexit development.
    It must be a source of frustration for you. Whilst you and other trade experts like Steve Baker keep proclaiming what a smash hit Brexit is, the rest of the country goes "hang on" and starts poking a stick at the sillier bits.

    As we progress through next year and tie ourselves in absolute knots trying and failing to keep on top of oceans of paperwork, delays and costs for checks on products that share the same standards on both sides of the border, the pressure to cut the knots out will grow and grow. Until we become unofficial associate members of both the CU and SM. Possessing the right to have babies as and when we invent a cardboard box for the foetus to gestate in.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,130


    £30 billion in roads that carry 90% of all transport and £18 billion in just one rail line that only a tiny proportion of people use relative to the roads means that we're not investing fairly.

    On the other hand, if you're looking for clear symbolic "we are spending money to Level Up the North" projects then you should probably prefer to funnel it into one big obvious project rather than spread it out in hundreds of barely-noticed tweaks, road maintenance and minor bypasses...

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    pm215 said:


    £30 billion in roads that carry 90% of all transport and £18 billion in just one rail line that only a tiny proportion of people use relative to the roads means that we're not investing fairly.

    On the other hand, if you're looking for clear symbolic "we are spending money to Level Up the North" projects then you should probably prefer to funnel it into one big obvious project rather than spread it out in hundreds of barely-noticed tweaks, road maintenance and minor bypasses...

    Completion of the M67 would be well noticed up here, as would a woodhead rail line. We'll take either.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    pm215 said:


    £30 billion in roads that carry 90% of all transport and £18 billion in just one rail line that only a tiny proportion of people use relative to the roads means that we're not investing fairly.

    On the other hand, if you're looking for clear symbolic "we are spending money to Level Up the North" projects then you should probably prefer to funnel it into one big obvious project rather than spread it out in hundreds of barely-noticed tweaks, road maintenance and minor bypasses...

    If you are wanting to convince FDI, you’d also go with the “big obvious project”.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,819
    FF43 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    It's amusing how the Telegraph put Truss in the FMBs next to the 'PM' headline as if she already had the gig.

    It's a fascinating photo. Truss is projecting the trappings of high office. Yet there's this overwhelming sense of fake - the gilt chairs and Truss herself.

    It looks like the usual suspect press is setting up Truss to take over from Johnson, based on these photos.
    It reminds me of the Garde Republicaine and the Elysee Palace. Ms Truss is a (former) republican. One almost wonders if she wants to be President of the Britannic Republic.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Brexit is dead, isn’t it?
    I mean, really dead.

    I think Stuart’s right. In 10 years time nobody will remember having voted for it. Not even Charles.

    Boris is a corpse, too. He’ll be lucky to last into Spring.

    What a frabjous day, though it’s a bit chilly here in Portugal after several days of balmy, t-shirt weather.

    I don't see how brexit is dead. Its over. We are out. To make brexit dead surely implies rejoin?
    Brexit as a political and ideological project is dead.

    It’s now an administrative clear up job, with an inexorable pull back toward closer arrangements with the EU.
    Which is fine. I think that's what the majority of people want - we don't really want to keep fighting with our friends over the water. We've always wanted trade and co-operation.

    I don't get your point though. Its like saying WW2 was over in 1947. Of course it was.
    It was the governing force in this country from 2016 until 2021. During that time “Brexit” justified a multiple of sins because of the “the will of the people”.

    That’s all over now.
    Brexit hasn’t worked, nobody cares about the details, and it’s totemic exponent is a corpse.

    Brexit is like Jacobinism after 1748.
    Or the Branch Davidians are Waco, Texas.

    History.
    What do you mean - hasn't worked? Brexit was an end in itself - to remove the UK from the European Union, which it has done.
    You may feel it was the wrong thing to do. You may think it makes us poorer as a country. You may think what you like, but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.
    Brexit hasn’t worked in the sense that it has failed it’s economic, trade, deregulating, and egalitarian objectives.

    Nor has any equilibrium been reached; it’s just left an untidy and embarrassing mess which will take another 10 or 15 years to clean up.

    I would not be surprised if the U.K. rejoined, although I am not ready to predict that yet. The EU would need to change for that to happen.
    The UK is going to end up with a virtual rejoin. Successive less deranged governments than this one will gradually reintegrate back into many EU structures but with no political or administrative voice in Bruxelles.
  • Updated normalised cases, admissions and deaths for Gauteng. Gauteng 7DMA cases (incl reinfections) peaked 9 December at 97% of Delta wave. 7DMA admissions peaked 12 December at 47% of Delta wave. Deaths at 8% of Delta wave but still rising.

    https://twitter.com/hivepi/status/1472849041197346822?s=20
  • pm215 said:


    £30 billion in roads that carry 90% of all transport and £18 billion in just one rail line that only a tiny proportion of people use relative to the roads means that we're not investing fairly.

    On the other hand, if you're looking for clear symbolic "we are spending money to Level Up the North" projects then you should probably prefer to funnel it into one big obvious project rather than spread it out in hundreds of barely-noticed tweaks, road maintenance and minor bypasses...

    You mean if you're just looking for political kudos and not to actually help people?

    I'm not interested in that funnily enough.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    kjh said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Gove?

    The last Brexiteer standing. Mad as a box of frogs. Anti establishment. Well connected. Done with the kids.

    Could he do it?

    Not popular.

    I think Sunak, Hunt, Javid or Mordaunt.
    None of those are exactly popular either. Gove has Impeccable Brexit credentials and perhaps able to draw on the dark arts of Cummings.

    If he wants it, surely he’s a candidate.
    Unlike any of the others mentioned in the previous post doesn't Gove come over as wierd and therefore not a good selection.
    Not to me - he seems competent and proactive, unlike a number of his colleagues. Lots of politicians are not conventionally handsome, but people get used to them. The last really good-looking PM in the classical tradition was arguably Anthony Eden.
  • Charles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    Worryingly I think this is Truss’s only way to become PM - so it will probably happen in April /May

    Gideon Rachman
    @gideonrachman
    Prediction: in a few months time, Truss resigns as Foreign Sec, accusing Johnson of not being tough enough with the EU; repeating exactly what Johnson did to May & for same reason: to position for a leadership bid, knowing Tories will always chase rainbow of perfect hard Brexit

    It will merely prove how much the Tories need the bogeyman of Europe as cover for their own shortcomings.... and we will have another blond non-entity as PM.
    Liz Truss was of course a big supporter of Remain at the time of the referendum.

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/701028930183110656

    "Liz Truss
    @trussliz
    I am backing remain as I believe it is in Britain's economic interest and means we can focus on vital economic and social reform at home.
    1:01 PM · Feb 20, 2016"
    I don’t see why people think this is a point.

    She backed remain for logical reasons. The voters decided they had other priorities so put more weight on other factors. She has knocked down and implemented the voters instructions to the best of her ability
    People who backed remain but now don't are the worst people. Worse than those idiots who have backed Brexit all along. It's like the opposite of repentant sinners or something.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,819

    Like last year, the government is leaving it too late. There are just five days left to the big day and families need to know in advance how much food to buy, and whether to post cards and presents or hand them over in person. And in a couple of days time, any announcement will likely be lost in the noise of the run-up to Christmas because people have got too much else on rather than being glued to The Saj's ambiguous murmurings or Professor Whitty's next slide please.

    Johnson follows. Sturgeon and Drakeford lead.
    Surely not!

    The Johnson enthusiasts were preening themselves that Scotland and Wales were Covid-failed states whilst Bozzaland was ticking along nicely and SA hospitisation and mortality data confirmed his genius only a week ago.

    There again "a week is a long time in politics".
    So is a year. It's like last Christmas only more so.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Dura_Ace said:

    Brexit is dead, isn’t it?
    I mean, really dead.

    I think Stuart’s right. In 10 years time nobody will remember having voted for it. Not even Charles.

    Boris is a corpse, too. He’ll be lucky to last into Spring.

    What a frabjous day, though it’s a bit chilly here in Portugal after several days of balmy, t-shirt weather.

    I don't see how brexit is dead. Its over. We are out. To make brexit dead surely implies rejoin?
    Brexit as a political and ideological project is dead.

    It’s now an administrative clear up job, with an inexorable pull back toward closer arrangements with the EU.
    Which is fine. I think that's what the majority of people want - we don't really want to keep fighting with our friends over the water. We've always wanted trade and co-operation.

    I don't get your point though. Its like saying WW2 was over in 1947. Of course it was.
    It was the governing force in this country from 2016 until 2021. During that time “Brexit” justified a multiple of sins because of the “the will of the people”.

    That’s all over now.
    Brexit hasn’t worked, nobody cares about the details, and it’s totemic exponent is a corpse.

    Brexit is like Jacobinism after 1748.
    Or the Branch Davidians are Waco, Texas.

    History.
    What do you mean - hasn't worked? Brexit was an end in itself - to remove the UK from the European Union, which it has done.
    You may feel it was the wrong thing to do. You may think it makes us poorer as a country. You may think what you like, but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.
    Brexit hasn’t worked in the sense that it has failed it’s economic, trade, deregulating, and egalitarian objectives.

    Nor has any equilibrium been reached; it’s just left an untidy and embarrassing mess which will take another 10 or 15 years to clean up.

    I would not be surprised if the U.K. rejoined, although I am not ready to predict that yet. The EU would need to change for that to happen.
    The UK is going to end up with a virtual rejoin. Successive less deranged governments than this one will gradually reintegrate back into many EU structures but with no political or administrative voice in Bruxelles.
    The aim of British foreign policy will be seek ways of regaining that voice.

    God knows how.

    Nobody wanted to “start from here”.
  • My nephew went to the football yesterday. Got this picture of Dele Alli

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    FF43 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    It's amusing how the Telegraph put Truss in the FMBs next to the 'PM' headline as if she already had the gig.

    It's a fascinating photo. Truss is projecting the trappings of high office. Yet there's this overwhelming sense of fake - the gilt chairs and Truss herself.

    It looks like the usual suspect press is setting up Truss to take over from Johnson, based on these photos.
    See also

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1471045885446533129

    same "Address to my Loyal Subjects" pose, added flegmanship and (the symbolism positively hurts) 19th century globe.

    I never had a 100/1 shot I less wanted to pay out.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.

    If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU. Its complicated by the GFA. There is no easy solution.
    Brexit is the trade deals. While some people may think Brexit is over - it really isn't. Wait until January 1st when the real paperwork is required for both sides and France really start to be anal about errors.
    Something they have vast experience in. The whole point of the single market was to remove their ability to act like utter twats.
    +1 For the French there is literally zero downside to being arsy with the paperwork. You only have to arrive at CDG once to discover that fact.
    Or queue for Air France check in.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    pm215 said:


    £30 billion in roads that carry 90% of all transport and £18 billion in just one rail line that only a tiny proportion of people use relative to the roads means that we're not investing fairly.

    On the other hand, if you're looking for clear symbolic "we are spending money to Level Up the North" projects then you should probably prefer to funnel it into one big obvious project rather than spread it out in hundreds of barely-noticed tweaks, road maintenance and minor bypasses...

    Yep - the local projects are a bypass round Tow Law (essential but annoyed the locals as they wanted a larger one bypassing West Auckland as well) and some A19 improvements (it's the A19 so any improvements are better but I only use it when absolutely unavoidable).

    The advantage of rail is that people remember the before and remember the after. And the after for a lot of people will be a lot more frequent services into their local city and a significant improvement in the number of people within an x0 minute commute.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited December 2021

    Brexit is dead, isn’t it?
    I mean, really dead.

    I think Stuart’s right. In 10 years time nobody will remember having voted for it. Not even Charles.

    Boris is a corpse, too. He’ll be lucky to last into Spring.

    What a frabjous day, though it’s a bit chilly here in Portugal after several days of balmy, t-shirt weather.

    I don't see how brexit is dead. Its over. We are out. To make brexit dead surely implies rejoin?
    Indeed we will be dealing with it forever. Brexit might one day be over as a state of mind, but the fact of it remains.

    I'm not convinced a Tory coup where anti lockdown Truss or Sunak gets chosen in the midst of a pandemic meltdown is optimal timing.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424

    Scott_xP said:

    but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.

    If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU. Its complicated by the GFA. There is no easy solution.
    The partitioning of Ireland seemed like a good idea once.

    As did Brexit.
    I think, to be fair, that the partitioning of Ireland was a 'least bad'. The alternatives included a three-way Civil War.

    Whereas there are few, if any, upsides to Brexit.
    Perhaps one upside is to Brexit will be the final interment of Brexit ideology. Brexit’s death may mean the Tory Party become electable again.
    The only benefit of an electable Tory Paryy is that parties of the Left and Centre Left have to be a bit more careful.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    edited December 2021
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.

    If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
    She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU. Its complicated by the GFA. There is no easy solution.
    Brexit is the trade deals. While some people may think Brexit is over - it really isn't. Wait until January 1st when the real paperwork is required for both sides and France really start to be anal about errors.
    Something they have vast experience in. The whole point of the single market was to remove their ability to act like utter twats.
    +1 For the French there is literally zero downside to being arsy with the paperwork. You only have to arrive at CDG once to discover that fact.
    Or queue for Air France check in.
    Not had a problem with an Air France check in - mind you ever time I've been I've been Platinum from my AMS flights. So it was walk to the posh check-ins and then priority service to the lounge.

    Immigration and the hideousness of CDG transfers are however outside Air France's control.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    pm215 said:


    £30 billion in roads that carry 90% of all transport and £18 billion in just one rail line that only a tiny proportion of people use relative to the roads means that we're not investing fairly.

    On the other hand, if you're looking for clear symbolic "we are spending money to Level Up the North" projects then you should probably prefer to funnel it into one big obvious project rather than spread it out in hundreds of barely-noticed tweaks, road maintenance and minor bypasses...

    Indeed. This relates to the what has Europe ever done for me? question, that we answered with a resounding "nothing" in 2016. France spends it's Social Fund money on the Milau road bridge, we put cobble stones down and erect a bench in Cemaes Bay.
  • Scott_xP said:

    The whole point of the single market was to remove their ability to act like utter twats.

    Thatcher's greatest achievement.

    Utterly destroyed by those who worshipped her...
    What was the UK's trade balance with the EU in the single market ?
This discussion has been closed.