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The front pages sum up the worries about Christmas – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageThe front pages sum up the worries about Christmas – politicalbetting.com

This is a tricky one for Johnson because as we all recall last year when a lockdown was brought in at what appeared to be the last minute. Now faced with the awful increasing COVID numbers a decision will have to be taken. This is one that cannot be ducked.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301
    First like Australia.
  • Like last year, the government is leaving it too late. There are just five days left to the big day and families need to know in advance how much food to buy, and whether to post cards and presents or hand them over in person. And in a couple of days time, any announcement will likely be lost in the noise of the run-up to Christmas because people have got too much else on rather than being glued to The Saj's ambiguous murmurings or Professor Whitty's next slide please.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    "'Liz Truss has edged into pole position ahead of Sunak as Boris Johnson's successor'

    Kevin Maguire can see the vultures circling around the hapless prime minister - and he doesn't trust any of them while thinking Liz Truss is the heir apparent"

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/liz-truss-edged-pole-position-25740844
  • The bottom right of that Telegraph front page warns that NHS staff sickness has doubled. That might tip the Cabinet's hand.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "'Liz Truss has edged into pole position ahead of Sunak as Boris Johnson's successor'

    Kevin Maguire can see the vultures circling around the hapless prime minister - and he doesn't trust any of them while thinking Liz Truss is the heir apparent"

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/liz-truss-edged-pole-position-25740844

    Her new Brexit brief, inherited from Lord Frost, might make or break Liz Truss but with both Russia and China on manoeuvres, is this really the time to dump more red boxes on the Foreign Secretary? You can see why Boris has handed her what he hopes is a poisoned chalice, of course.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,849
    edited December 2021

    The bottom right of that Telegraph front page warns that NHS staff sickness has doubled. That might tip the Cabinet's hand.

    … the London Ambulance Service Trust was down by almost 100 ambulances on Thursday evening and Friday due to staff sickness.

    … figures revealed the LAS Trust has 353 staff off due to Covid – a rise from the 214 not working because of the virus last week. Overall there are 832 staff off sick, out of its total workforce of 10,951.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/ambulance-service-engulfed-staff-covid-b1978091.html
  • Like last year, the government is leaving it too late. There are just five days left to the big day and families need to know in advance how much food to buy, and whether to post cards and presents or hand them over in person. And in a couple of days time, any announcement will likely be lost in the noise of the run-up to Christmas because people have got too much else on rather than being glued to The Saj's ambiguous murmurings or Professor Whitty's next slide please.

    Johnson follows. Sturgeon and Drakeford lead.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "'Liz Truss has edged into pole position ahead of Sunak as Boris Johnson's successor'

    Kevin Maguire can see the vultures circling around the hapless prime minister - and he doesn't trust any of them while thinking Liz Truss is the heir apparent"

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/liz-truss-edged-pole-position-25740844

    Truss is not in pole position on the markets:

    Best prices - Next Con leader

    Sunak 9/4
    Truss 5/1
    Gove 9/1
    Hunt 16/1
    Javid 18/1
    Tugendhat 25/1
    Patel 28/1
    Mordaunt 33/1
    Raab 40/1
    50 bar


  • At 16/1 Hunt is looking a reasonable shout. Held major office, health background and potentially overlooked last time round.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139

    Like last year, the government is leaving it too late. There are just five days left to the big day and families need to know in advance how much food to buy, and whether to post cards and presents or hand them over in person. And in a couple of days time, any announcement will likely be lost in the noise of the run-up to Christmas because people have got too much else on rather than being glued to The Saj's ambiguous murmurings or Professor Whitty's next slide please.

    I think we're covered. We're due to go up to my parents' for Christmas, but we're obviously nervous about getting six (I think) different families in the house at the same time, some of them vulnerable. Yet my mum wants to cook a massive Christmas dinner, as she has done for many decades.

    We've filled the chest freezer with enough food to see us (hopefully!) through the New Year, so we can have a small Christmas dinner at home, as we did last year, if we need to stay.

    But I'm thinking of compromises: taking the little 'un and the presents up on the day, having some food separately, and then heading back. But that won't be very nice for Mrs J being left behind, and might just be theatre anyway.

    Sadly, Christmas day looks as though it's going to be really wet, so it won't be an in-the-garden day.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139

    Andy_JS said:

    "'Liz Truss has edged into pole position ahead of Sunak as Boris Johnson's successor'

    Kevin Maguire can see the vultures circling around the hapless prime minister - and he doesn't trust any of them while thinking Liz Truss is the heir apparent"

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/liz-truss-edged-pole-position-25740844

    Her new Brexit brief, inherited from Lord Frost, might make or break Liz Truss but with both Russia and China on manoeuvres, is this really the time to dump more red boxes on the Foreign Secretary? You can see why Boris has handed her what he hopes is a poisoned chalice, of course.
    The person who’ll get blamed for Brexit is Boris Johnson. End of. The history books are already written. Farage and Cameron will get their footnotes, but otherwise the books are closed.

    In a decade everyone will have utterly disowned both Brexit and Boris. Nobody will have the faintest memory of backing either.
    You have a very odd view of history if you think the books are ever closed. Future generations of historians need to make their living reanalysing the events and coming up with new angles to sell books / make TV programs. ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321

    Andy_JS said:

    "'Liz Truss has edged into pole position ahead of Sunak as Boris Johnson's successor'

    Kevin Maguire can see the vultures circling around the hapless prime minister - and he doesn't trust any of them while thinking Liz Truss is the heir apparent"

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/liz-truss-edged-pole-position-25740844

    Her new Brexit brief, inherited from Lord Frost, might make or break Liz Truss but with both Russia and China on manoeuvres, is this really the time to dump more red boxes on the Foreign Secretary? You can see why Boris has handed her what he hopes is a poisoned chalice, of course.
    The person who’ll get blamed for Brexit is Boris Johnson. End of. The history books are already written. Farage and Cameron will get their footnotes, but otherwise the books are closed.

    In a decade everyone will have utterly disowned both Brexit and Boris. Nobody will have the faintest memory of backing either.
    You have a very odd view of history if you think the books are ever closed. Future generations of historians need to make their living reanalysing the events and coming up with new angles to sell books / make TV programs. ;)
    But Boris’s reputation will get worse with each retelling, with each new revelation and as time enables those who were taken in by his act to forget, or depart.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 711
    edited December 2021

    Like last year, the government is leaving it too late. There are just five days left to the big day and families need to know in advance how much food to buy, and whether to post cards and presents or hand them over in person. And in a couple of days time, any announcement will likely be lost in the noise of the run-up to Christmas because people have got too much else on rather than being glued to The Saj's ambiguous murmurings or Professor Whitty's next slide please.

    Spot on.

    It's amazing that the tories managed to elect another ditherer as leader.

    It was Theresa May's worst fault. It's one of Boris Johnson's many faults. In Mrs May's case I think it was genuine indecisiveness. In Johnson's case I reckon a good part of it is because of his chaotic character, lack of self-discipline, inability to grasp detail, failure to pay attention to the brief, and laziness.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756

    At 16/1 Hunt is looking a reasonable shout. Held major office, health background and potentially overlooked last time round.

    Is it still thought to be likely that he got into the final round last time because of tactical votes by Johnson supporters to push Gove into third place?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "'Liz Truss has edged into pole position ahead of Sunak as Boris Johnson's successor'

    Kevin Maguire can see the vultures circling around the hapless prime minister - and he doesn't trust any of them while thinking Liz Truss is the heir apparent"

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/liz-truss-edged-pole-position-25740844

    Her new Brexit brief, inherited from Lord Frost, might make or break Liz Truss but with both Russia and China on manoeuvres, is this really the time to dump more red boxes on the Foreign Secretary? You can see why Boris has handed her what he hopes is a poisoned chalice, of course.
    The person who’ll get blamed for Brexit is Boris Johnson. End of. The history books are already written. Farage and Cameron will get their footnotes, but otherwise the books are closed.

    In a decade everyone will have utterly disowned both Brexit and Boris. Nobody will have the faintest memory of backing either.
    You have a very odd view of history if you think the books are ever closed. Future generations of historians need to make their living reanalysing the events and coming up with new angles to sell books / make TV programs. ;)
    But Boris’s reputation will get worse with each retelling, with each new revelation and as time enables those who were taken in by his act to forget, or depart.
    Possibly. I certainly don't think he'll end up being seen as a front- or mid-rank PM. But my comment was on the idea that history books were ever 'closed'.

    In addition, the comment was about Brexit. I voted remain, and don't think Brexit has gone very well so far. But it's perfectly possible that in thirty or forty years we look back on the 2016 vote and think: "Yep, they got it right."

    I hope we do.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074

    At 16/1 Hunt is looking a reasonable shout. Held major office, health background and potentially overlooked last time round.

    Hunt is my favourite lay in this market. He’s the guy who, as health secretary, decided to ignore the output of the pandemic preparedness exercise he commissioned himself.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    Interview with Liz Truss from 2010.

    https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2010/07/31/interview-elizabeth-truss/

    "Her rebellious political radar appears to have taken shape extremely early indeed. At her Leeds comprehensive, disagreeing with left-wing teachers was one of the reasons she eventually found herself representing the Conservatives. “Most of my teachers were quite left wing and I got quite frustrated with the political correctness and lack of academic rigour. I think it was the frustration with that that started me in the direction towards the Conservative party.”

    It took more than one step to get there. Following the early repulsion from her Labour roots, Truss enthusiastically adopted Liberal Democrat yellow. At the age of 17 she became a card-carrying member and went on to preside over the party society at her university, Oxford. One fellow member fondly recalls her as “a complete and utter egomaniac pain in the backside, incapable of working in a team.” This could be a job description for an MP, so I am surprised it took her ten years’ work in business to finally make it to Westminster."
  • NOM 5/4
    Con Maj 9/5
    Lab Maj 6/1

    Lab Maj has been stuck at 6/1 for at least a year now, despite 14 straight Labour leads in the polls, the Paterson debacle, Peppa Pig, broken lockdown rules, 100 backbench “shits” etc etc etc.

    At some point that price has to budge?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    edited December 2021
    Mail: A Survation poll…found Johnson's trustworthiness has dropped eight points in the past month in the wake of the party scandals, with just a third of Tory voters believing him to be honest. Of all voters, 68 per cent believe Johnson is dishonest and 63 per cent say he lacks integrity, The Mirror reports.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    The odds on the Saj for next con leader look good. His star may not be currently rising but he has all the right credentials and experience. He can be really impressive when tested.
  • My favourite bit of weekend sports news, and I'm not really an ice hockey fan.

    @AlexKokcharov
    #Russia’s ice hockey team donned #SovietUnion uniforms today for #ChannelOneCup. Despite the #USSR collapsing 30 years ago.

    They lost, against Finland. So much symbolism in this.
    https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1472713943705661440
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    The Sun: BRUISED Boris Johnson faces fresh leadership woes as he reels from Brexit chief Lord Frost’s resignation.

    As enemies circle, the PM was warned he could be ousted within months.

    One top Tory branded No 10 a “sh**show” while another backbencher said he will hand in his letter of no confidence in the PM this week “to put him on notice”.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756

    NOM 5/4
    Con Maj 9/5
    Lab Maj 6/1

    Lab Maj has been stuck at 6/1 for at least a year now, despite 14 straight Labour leads in the polls, the Paterson debacle, Peppa Pig, broken lockdown rules, 100 backbench “shits” etc etc etc.

    At some point that price has to budge?

    It'll budge in the wrong direction when Johnson is replaced.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074

    NOM 5/4
    Con Maj 9/5
    Lab Maj 6/1

    Lab Maj has been stuck at 6/1 for at least a year now, despite 14 straight Labour leads in the polls, the Paterson debacle, Peppa Pig, broken lockdown rules, 100 backbench “shits” etc etc etc.

    At some point that price has to budge?

    I’ll take the 9/5 on Con Maj.

    If it looks like the majority will be lost, the Tories will swap out the leader and re-invent themselves in office, just as they did in 2019. 80 seats is a big majority to lose in one go.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    WRT Johnson, all in all; it is just sad what has happened to him. He is a brilliant communicator and reinvented the conservative party from one of its lowest historical ebbs. He had an authenticity lacking in 30 years plus of his predecessors in No.10. Rightly or wrongly he literally reshaped our relationship with Europe. There were paradigm shifting ideas about the role of the state and how the UK needs to develop in a multilateral, post liberal world. But the ideas weren't his, and without Dominic Cummings; he just can't deliver them. He is too distracted by his personal life, and it shows; unable to manage or properly compartmentalise. Within little more than 2 years, he has sunk in to desperate, gutter populism. Without a fantastic reinvention, which seems unlikely; he is very likely to be out within the very near future. A fascinating story, and he will be a brilliant historical character.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    darkage said:

    WRT Johnson, all in all; it is just sad what has happened to him. He is a brilliant communicator and reinvented the conservative party from one of its lowest historical ebbs. He had an authenticity lacking in 30 years plus of his predecessors in No.10. Rightly or wrongly he literally reshaped our relationship with Europe. There were paradigm shifting ideas about the role of the state and how the UK needs to develop in a multilateral, post liberal world. But the ideas weren't his, and without Dominic Cummings; he just can't deliver them. He is too distracted by his personal life, and it shows; unable to manage or properly compartmentalise. Within little more than 2 years, he has sunk in to desperate, gutter populism. Without a fantastic reinvention, which seems unlikely; he is very likely to be out within the very near future. A fascinating story, and he will be a brilliant historical character.

    He really does need to refocus his team over Christmas. It’s clear he’s starting to lose the support of his own MPs, needs to get a new Cummings on board as quickly as possible.

    The biggest problem, as the original Cummings identified, is the wife - a somewhat more difficult problem for staff and advisors to work around.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    Sandpit said:

    NOM 5/4
    Con Maj 9/5
    Lab Maj 6/1

    Lab Maj has been stuck at 6/1 for at least a year now, despite 14 straight Labour leads in the polls, the Paterson debacle, Peppa Pig, broken lockdown rules, 100 backbench “shits” etc etc etc.

    At some point that price has to budge?

    I’ll take the 9/5 on Con Maj.

    If it looks like the majority will be lost, the Tories will swap out the leader and re-invent themselves in office, just as they did in 2019. 80 seats is a big majority to lose in one go.
    Those odds (on con majority) are good, but I just wonder if they will get better still. The tories seem to be falling off a cliff at the moment.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    My favourite bit of weekend sports news, and I'm not really an ice hockey fan.

    @AlexKokcharov
    #Russia’s ice hockey team donned #SovietUnion uniforms today for #ChannelOneCup. Despite the #USSR collapsing 30 years ago.

    They lost, against Finland. So much symbolism in this.
    https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1472713943705661440

    The winter war revisited?
  • Good morning, everyone.

    F1: intriguing that Ladbrokes continues to rate Russell's odds as less likely than the Betfair Exchange. His odds there are down to 5.3. Which I find interesting.

    Not backing anyone at this stage. If I get a free bet then Russell, Norris, and Vettel will be the ones I'm looking at.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    Good morning one and all. Colder this morning.

    Rather agree with Mr Jessop upthread; should the Coles be thinking about a plan B? There've been some minor teaks already. Only trouble is, some of our family, who live in SE Asia, are here already; now wondering if they might end up rearranging their flights home and not taking the opportunity to see relations Oop North.

    It's not a good time to be in UK; I never thought I'd write something like this, but I feel a bit sorry for the PM. It really wasn't supposed to be like this, according to the Great Plan..... if indeed plan there was, not just overweening ambition. For his sake, I hope he's managed to keep it in his trousers while Carrie's hors de combat, and we don't hear angry shouting coming from the flat above No 11!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: intriguing that Ladbrokes continues to rate Russell's odds as less likely than the Betfair Exchange. His odds there are down to 5.3. Which I find interesting.

    Not backing anyone at this stage. If I get a free bet then Russell, Norris, and Vettel will be the ones I'm looking at.

    5.3 on Russell is a little stingy, especially given the uncertainty around the new cars.

    Given what happened this season, GR might well end up ‘paired’ with Crashtappen, told to drive aggressively against the Red Bull to give Lewis a clear run at his 8th title.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    edited December 2021
    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    WRT Johnson, all in all; it is just sad what has happened to him. He is a brilliant communicator and reinvented the conservative party from one of its lowest historical ebbs. He had an authenticity lacking in 30 years plus of his predecessors in No.10. Rightly or wrongly he literally reshaped our relationship with Europe. There were paradigm shifting ideas about the role of the state and how the UK needs to develop in a multilateral, post liberal world. But the ideas weren't his, and without Dominic Cummings; he just can't deliver them. He is too distracted by his personal life, and it shows; unable to manage or properly compartmentalise. Within little more than 2 years, he has sunk in to desperate, gutter populism. Without a fantastic reinvention, which seems unlikely; he is very likely to be out within the very near future. A fascinating story, and he will be a brilliant historical character.

    He really does need to refocus his team over Christmas. It’s clear he’s starting to lose the support of his own MPs, needs to get a new Cummings on board as quickly as possible.

    The biggest problem, as the original Cummings identified, is the wife - a somewhat more difficult problem for staff and advisors to work around.
    This seems like an intractable problem. As an elected politician, he can appoint his wife as his main political advisor. The problem though is that if his political advisor is no good, then he will quickly get removed from office. In this case, he cannot remove his main political advisor, because she is his wife. Either he doesn't have the will or power in the relationship, or the situation is such that he cannot manage her. I can only really speculate about what is going on though. It is another fascinating dimension to the story of Johnson as a historic character.
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114
    Sandpit said:

    NOM 5/4
    Con Maj 9/5
    Lab Maj 6/1

    Lab Maj has been stuck at 6/1 for at least a year now, despite 14 straight Labour leads in the polls, the Paterson debacle, Peppa Pig, broken lockdown rules, 100 backbench “shits” etc etc etc.

    At some point that price has to budge?

    I’ll take the 9/5 on Con Maj.

    If it looks like the majority will be lost, the Tories will swap out the leader and re-invent themselves in office, just as they did in 2019. 80 seats is a big majority to lose in one go.
    That’s the value bet there.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074

    Good morning one and all. Colder this morning.

    Rather agree with Mr Jessop upthread; should the Coles be thinking about a plan B? There've been some minor teaks already. Only trouble is, some of our family, who live in SE Asia, are here already; now wondering if they might end up rearranging their flights home and not taking the opportunity to see relations Oop North.

    It's not a good time to be in UK; I never thought I'd write something like this, but I feel a bit sorry for the PM. It really wasn't supposed to be like this, according to the Great Plan..... if indeed plan there was, not just overweening ambition. For his sake, I hope he's managed to keep it in his trousers while Carrie's hors de combat, and we don't hear angry shouting coming from the flat above No 11!

    Good luck sorting out all your family arrrangements, must be incredibly annoying to see the virus resurgent at this time of year.

    We decided against travelling, three years now since we’ve seen the UK family, including a young nephew we’ve yet to meet, but will have to put up with yet another FaceTime Christmas. Maybe we’ll be back in the UK in the summer.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    Interesting new study, reported in the New York Times, that suggests the mRNA vaccine boosters give much better protection against spread of Omicron variant. The traditional vaccines do however continue to protect against hospitalisation.

    https://www.deccanherald.com/international/most-vaccines-unlikely-to-protect-against-omicron-infections-according-to-initial-studies-1062625.html
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    edited December 2021
    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    WRT Johnson, all in all; it is just sad what has happened to him. He is a brilliant communicator and reinvented the conservative party from one of its lowest historical ebbs. He had an authenticity lacking in 30 years plus of his predecessors in No.10. Rightly or wrongly he literally reshaped our relationship with Europe. There were paradigm shifting ideas about the role of the state and how the UK needs to develop in a multilateral, post liberal world. But the ideas weren't his, and without Dominic Cummings; he just can't deliver them. He is too distracted by his personal life, and it shows; unable to manage or properly compartmentalise. Within little more than 2 years, he has sunk in to desperate, gutter populism. Without a fantastic reinvention, which seems unlikely; he is very likely to be out within the very near future. A fascinating story, and he will be a brilliant historical character.

    He really does need to refocus his team over Christmas. It’s clear he’s starting to lose the support of his own MPs, needs to get a new Cummings on board as quickly as possible.

    The biggest problem, as the original Cummings identified, is the wife - a somewhat more difficult problem for staff and advisors to work around.
    And imagine how much more difficult that would be, strictly hypothetically, if she were the only person legitimately able to break damaging information covered by super-injunction. They are lucky that this isn’t the case.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    But harsh on monkeys.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 368
    Morning all. Good to see the conversations here yesterday re the fallibility of models for covid gaining traction on the Today programme.

    Will be interesting to see if this becomes a “wave” and if enough media pressure to show both ends of predictions on hospitalisations/deaths and not just worst case scenarios results in less pressure to impose lockdowns then it’s a good thing.

    And nice to see, if a Today editor was reading yesterday, that they don’t just run with whatever was in the guardian the previous day….
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    When your best Test batsman is Chris Woakes, something has gone very wrong somewhere.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Fear not, Dominic Raab is coming on the radio at 0810 to reassure the nation.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    ydoethur said:

    When your best Test batsman is Chris Woakes, something has gone very wrong somewhere.

    "Will Macpherson
    @willis_macp
    Chris Woakes is the only England batter to reach double figures in every innings this series"

    https://twitter.com/willis_macp/status/1472807348733419522
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    Sandpit said:

    Good morning one and all. Colder this morning.

    Rather agree with Mr Jessop upthread; should the Coles be thinking about a plan B? There've been some minor teaks already. Only trouble is, some of our family, who live in SE Asia, are here already; now wondering if they might end up rearranging their flights home and not taking the opportunity to see relations Oop North.

    It's not a good time to be in UK; I never thought I'd write something like this, but I feel a bit sorry for the PM. It really wasn't supposed to be like this, according to the Great Plan..... if indeed plan there was, not just overweening ambition. For his sake, I hope he's managed to keep it in his trousers while Carrie's hors de combat, and we don't hear angry shouting coming from the flat above No 11!

    Good luck sorting out all your family arrrangements, must be incredibly annoying to see the virus resurgent at this time of year.

    We decided against travelling, three years now since we’ve seen the UK family, including a young nephew we’ve yet to meet, but will have to put up with yet another FaceTime Christmas. Maybe we’ll be back in the UK in the summer.
    Thanks Mr S. Fortunately Grandpa doesn't have to do the sorting out; he and Grannie have two sons who are used to having to 'make decisions' which affect others. And while Mrs C will be involved with the cooking on The Day it's won't be in her kitchen.

    Understand, and sympathise with your view on travelling; we haven't got a new-born to see, but last time we saw one set of grandchildren, while the elder was obviously heading toward adulthood, we have now have two pretty teenage granddaughters.
    Only one little one now!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    When your best Test batsman is Chris Woakes, something has gone very wrong somewhere.

    Only another 75 runs needed, to avoid what’s effectively an innings defeat, with only the bowlers still to bat after this pair. What can possibly go wrong?
  • Andy_JS said:

    NOM 5/4
    Con Maj 9/5
    Lab Maj 6/1

    Lab Maj has been stuck at 6/1 for at least a year now, despite 14 straight Labour leads in the polls, the Paterson debacle, Peppa Pig, broken lockdown rules, 100 backbench “shits” etc etc etc.

    At some point that price has to budge?

    It'll budge in the wrong direction when Johnson is replaced.
    I think the choice is either get rid of Johnson in 2022 and take a chance with a less "charismatic" leader who can rebuild the Tories reputation in office, offering them a chance in May 2024, or an excruciating death as the Johnson cancer metastasizes everywhere leading to an inevitable and catastrophic defeat.

    There is no option where Johnson stays, turns a corner and establishes a competent, successful and sufficiently popular administration for re-election. The only question is when he goes and who replaces him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    Sandpit said:

    Good morning one and all. Colder this morning.

    Rather agree with Mr Jessop upthread; should the Coles be thinking about a plan B? There've been some minor teaks already. Only trouble is, some of our family, who live in SE Asia, are here already; now wondering if they might end up rearranging their flights home and not taking the opportunity to see relations Oop North.

    It's not a good time to be in UK; I never thought I'd write something like this, but I feel a bit sorry for the PM. It really wasn't supposed to be like this, according to the Great Plan..... if indeed plan there was, not just overweening ambition. For his sake, I hope he's managed to keep it in his trousers while Carrie's hors de combat, and we don't hear angry shouting coming from the flat above No 11!

    Good luck sorting out all your family arrrangements, must be incredibly annoying to see the virus resurgent at this time of year.

    We decided against travelling, three years now since we’ve seen the UK family, including a young nephew we’ve yet to meet, but will have to put up with yet another FaceTime Christmas. Maybe we’ll be back in the UK in the summer.
    Just the 5 of us ( 3 households) round my better half's parents this year. Nothing to do with coronavirus particularly though.
  • eek said:

    Worryingly I think this is Truss’s only way to become PM - so it will probably happen in April /May

    Gideon Rachman
    @gideonrachman
    Prediction: in a few months time, Truss resigns as Foreign Sec, accusing Johnson of not being tough enough with the EU; repeating exactly what Johnson did to May & for same reason: to position for a leadership bid, knowing Tories will always chase rainbow of perfect hard Brexit

    It will merely prove how much the Tories need the bogeyman of Europe as cover for their own shortcomings.... and we will have another blond non-entity as PM.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572
    ydoethur said:

    When your best Test batsman is Chris Woakes, something has gone very wrong somewhere.

    Harsh on Root and Milan, who have two decent fifties each in two tests.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,257
    It's amusing how the Telegraph put Truss in the FMBs next to the 'PM' headline as if she already had the gig.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    In the latest ConHome league table, Truss and Frost were at the top of the list. Nadine Dorries was in 4th place.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/11/our-cabinet-league-table-johnson-is-back-in-negative-ratings.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    When your best Test batsman is Chris Woakes, something has gone very wrong somewhere.

    Only another 75 runs needed, to avoid what’s effectively an innings defeat, with only the bowlers still to bat after this pair. What can possibly go wrong?
    Nothing, everything that could have gone wrong already has.

    Anything that happens from here, which may or may not include every Aussie sustaining comedy injuries, is irrelevant.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    edited December 2021

    eek said:

    Worryingly I think this is Truss’s only way to become PM - so it will probably happen in April /May

    Gideon Rachman
    @gideonrachman
    Prediction: in a few months time, Truss resigns as Foreign Sec, accusing Johnson of not being tough enough with the EU; repeating exactly what Johnson did to May & for same reason: to position for a leadership bid, knowing Tories will always chase rainbow of perfect hard Brexit

    It will merely prove how much the Tories need the bogeyman of Europe as cover for their own shortcomings.... and we will have another blond non-entity as PM.
    Liz Truss was of course a big supporter of Remain at the time of the referendum.

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/701028930183110656

    "Liz Truss
    @trussliz
    I am backing remain as I believe it is in Britain's economic interest and means we can focus on vital economic and social reform at home.
    1:01 PM · Feb 20, 2016"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    ydoethur said:

    When your best Test batsman is Chris Woakes, something has gone very wrong somewhere.

    Harsh on Root and Milan, who have two decent fifties each in two tests.
    Are you suggesting we need an Italian job to win this one?
  • Mr. Sandpit, new dynamic at Mercedes, though. Russell might be rather less happy to be a wingman.

    I wouldn't back Russell with my own money at those odds.

    Hoping the new regulations help some teams improve, and quite a few could realistically do so.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Andy_JS said:

    In the latest ConHome league table, Truss and Frost were at the top of the list. Nadine Dorries was in 4th place.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/11/our-cabinet-league-table-johnson-is-back-in-negative-ratings.html

    That says a great deal about ConHome's readership and precisely fuck all about the performance of the ministers in question.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    ydoethur said:

    When your best Test batsman is Chris Woakes, something has gone very wrong somewhere.

    Harsh on Root and Milan, who have two decent fifties each in two tests.
    The batting has been nowhere near good enough. So we will no doubt see changes in the bowling attack once again for the next test.
  • At 16/1 Hunt is looking a reasonable shout. Held major office, health background and potentially overlooked last time round.

    But not mad enough for the swivel-eyed loons of the party...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    When your best Test batsman is Chris Woakes, something has gone very wrong somewhere.

    Harsh on Root and Milan, who have two decent fifties each in two tests.
    The batting has been nowhere near good enough. So we will no doubt see changes in the bowling attack once again for the next test.
    Well, both are needed.

    If England had any sense, they would draw on the Lions squad. Is Liam Norwell, with his height, a better prospect than Woakes? I would say yes. Ben Foakes, the best keeper/batsman in the world, a better prospect than Buttler? Definitely. Is Bohannon worth considering ahead of Pope? Well, let's face it, he couldn't do a lot worse.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    Mr. Sandpit, new dynamic at Mercedes, though. Russell might be rather less happy to be a wingman.

    I wouldn't back Russell with my own money at those odds.

    Hoping the new regulations help some teams improve, and quite a few could realistically do so.

    Those odds would look a lot more attractive in Lewis did retire and Russel became team leader at Mercedes.
  • Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    Worryingly I think this is Truss’s only way to become PM - so it will probably happen in April /May

    Gideon Rachman
    @gideonrachman
    Prediction: in a few months time, Truss resigns as Foreign Sec, accusing Johnson of not being tough enough with the EU; repeating exactly what Johnson did to May & for same reason: to position for a leadership bid, knowing Tories will always chase rainbow of perfect hard Brexit

    It will merely prove how much the Tories need the bogeyman of Europe as cover for their own shortcomings.... and we will have another blond non-entity as PM.
    Liz Truss was of course a big supporter of Remain at the time of the referendum.

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/701028930183110656

    "Liz Truss
    @trussliz
    I am backing remain as I believe it is in Britain's economic interest and means we can focus on vital economic and social reform at home.
    1:01 PM · Feb 20, 2016"
    That does not make her an able candidate for PM. Her record to date looks rather lacklustre...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    edited December 2021
    DavidL said:

    Mr. Sandpit, new dynamic at Mercedes, though. Russell might be rather less happy to be a wingman.

    I wouldn't back Russell with my own money at those odds.

    Hoping the new regulations help some teams improve, and quite a few could realistically do so.

    Those odds would look a lot more attractive in Lewis did retire and Russel became team leader at Mercedes.
    I don't think he'll retire before trying for another world championship. He wants to beat Schumacher's record. And why shouldn't he?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108

    At 16/1 Hunt is looking a reasonable shout. Held major office, health background and potentially overlooked last time round.

    But not mad enough for the swivel-eyed loons of the party...
    Grossly unfair post coming up.

    Has HYUFD expressed a preference yet?
  • Peppa has no authority to impose anything. None. I think the most widely adopted response to "you must not gather for Christmas" will be howls of derisive laughter followed by Fuck You.
  • Sandpit said:

    NOM 5/4
    Con Maj 9/5
    Lab Maj 6/1

    Lab Maj has been stuck at 6/1 for at least a year now, despite 14 straight Labour leads in the polls, the Paterson debacle, Peppa Pig, broken lockdown rules, 100 backbench “shits” etc etc etc.

    At some point that price has to budge?

    I’ll take the 9/5 on Con Maj.

    If it looks like the majority will be lost, the Tories will swap out the leader and re-invent themselves in office, just as they did in 2019. 80 seats is a big majority to lose in one go.
    Oh, I dunno. Have you seen the North and Midlands splits? Truly terrifying.
  • pingping Posts: 1,679
    edited December 2021
    Markets are looking miserable
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    Peppa has no authority to impose anything. None. I think the most widely adopted response to "you must not gather for Christmas" will be howls of derisive laughter followed by Fuck You.

    I was asked yesterday by a retired teacher whether schools would be reopening in January.

    I said yes, because Johnson doesn't have the authority any more to shut them. He's too afraid of another backbench revolt that would finish him off.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    That's all Woakes. Game over.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    WRT Johnson, all in all; it is just sad what has happened to him. He is a brilliant communicator and reinvented the conservative party from one of its lowest historical ebbs. He had an authenticity lacking in 30 years plus of his predecessors in No.10. Rightly or wrongly he literally reshaped our relationship with Europe. There were paradigm shifting ideas about the role of the state and how the UK needs to develop in a multilateral, post liberal world. But the ideas weren't his, and without Dominic Cummings; he just can't deliver them. He is too distracted by his personal life, and it shows; unable to manage or properly compartmentalise. Within little more than 2 years, he has sunk in to desperate, gutter populism. Without a fantastic reinvention, which seems unlikely; he is very likely to be out within the very near future. A fascinating story, and he will be a brilliant historical character.

    He really does need to refocus his team over Christmas. It’s clear he’s starting to lose the support of his own MPs, needs to get a new Cummings on board as quickly as possible.

    The biggest problem, as the original Cummings identified, is the wife - a somewhat more difficult problem for staff and advisors to work around.
    That’s not a difficult problem

    When he loses his job he won’t be his wife for long
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,519
    edited December 2021
    Liz Truss may bring the Tories some of the same problems as Johnson, particularly since she's turned herself into somewhat of a celebrity brand. I think many Tories will be aware of this, and so Hunt or Sunak may be the much more likely candidates.

    An interesting outsider is Penny Mordaunt. Very different from May, Johnson or Truss, and maybe able to reach parts of the electorate that none of them can.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    WRT Johnson, all in all; it is just sad what has happened to him. He is a brilliant communicator and reinvented the conservative party from one of its lowest historical ebbs. He had an authenticity lacking in 30 years plus of his predecessors in No.10. Rightly or wrongly he literally reshaped our relationship with Europe. There were paradigm shifting ideas about the role of the state and how the UK needs to develop in a multilateral, post liberal world. But the ideas weren't his, and without Dominic Cummings; he just can't deliver them. He is too distracted by his personal life, and it shows; unable to manage or properly compartmentalise. Within little more than 2 years, he has sunk in to desperate, gutter populism. Without a fantastic reinvention, which seems unlikely; he is very likely to be out within the very near future. A fascinating story, and he will be a brilliant historical character.

    He really does need to refocus his team over Christmas. It’s clear he’s starting to lose the support of his own MPs, needs to get a new Cummings on board as quickly as possible.

    The biggest problem, as the original Cummings identified, is the wife - a somewhat more difficult problem for staff and advisors to work around.
    That’s not a difficult problem

    When he loses his job he won’t be his wife for long
    There's got to be at least one typo in there somewhere.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,334
    Strong sense of entitlement in the No11 spin.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/19/liz-truss-to-take-on-brexit-brief-after-lord-frost-resignation
    Allies of Sunak have long been suspicious of No 10’s treatment of Truss, suspecting that she was set up as a rival to the chancellor in order to clip his wings. “Clearly she plans to bash her way to the final two [in a leadership contest] then allow a Trumpian base to carry her into No 10,” one supporter told the Observer recently...

    I wonder if that will play against him significantly.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    Peppa has no authority to impose anything. None. I think the most widely adopted response to "you must not gather for Christmas" will be howls of derisive laughter followed by Fuck You.

    Most police officers as I said last night will be finding other crimes to deal with unless the Chief Constable is personally insisting (and assisting).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    Woakes out.

    Agree about Foakes. He was 'told' to move from Essex as there were two 'keepers in front of him..... Foster, who was limpet-like, and Wheater. Foster retired (possibly took umbrage) not long afterwards and Wheater's never really cut out as a keeper. Had Foakes not moved to Surrey he'd have had a regular county keeping spot and would have demonstrated his ability to such an effect that he'd have been an England regular by now.

    As far as batting is concerned, Lawrence should be in the side. He's far too good to be the drinks carrier.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,334
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    WRT Johnson, all in all; it is just sad what has happened to him. He is a brilliant communicator and reinvented the conservative party from one of its lowest historical ebbs. He had an authenticity lacking in 30 years plus of his predecessors in No.10. Rightly or wrongly he literally reshaped our relationship with Europe. There were paradigm shifting ideas about the role of the state and how the UK needs to develop in a multilateral, post liberal world. But the ideas weren't his, and without Dominic Cummings; he just can't deliver them. He is too distracted by his personal life, and it shows; unable to manage or properly compartmentalise. Within little more than 2 years, he has sunk in to desperate, gutter populism. Without a fantastic reinvention, which seems unlikely; he is very likely to be out within the very near future. A fascinating story, and he will be a brilliant historical character.

    He really does need to refocus his team over Christmas. It’s clear he’s starting to lose the support of his own MPs, needs to get a new Cummings on board as quickly as possible.

    The biggest problem, as the original Cummings identified, is the wife - a somewhat more difficult problem for staff and advisors to work around.
    That’s not a difficult problem

    When he loses his job he won’t be his wife for long
    There's got to be at least one typo in there somewhere.
    Or Charles was subtly expressing several ideas at once ?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    Worryingly I think this is Truss’s only way to become PM - so it will probably happen in April /May

    Gideon Rachman
    @gideonrachman
    Prediction: in a few months time, Truss resigns as Foreign Sec, accusing Johnson of not being tough enough with the EU; repeating exactly what Johnson did to May & for same reason: to position for a leadership bid, knowing Tories will always chase rainbow of perfect hard Brexit

    It will merely prove how much the Tories need the bogeyman of Europe as cover for their own shortcomings.... and we will have another blond non-entity as PM.
    Liz Truss was of course a big supporter of Remain at the time of the referendum.

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/701028930183110656

    "Liz Truss
    @trussliz
    I am backing remain as I believe it is in Britain's economic interest and means we can focus on vital economic and social reform at home.
    1:01 PM · Feb 20, 2016"
    I don’t see why people think this is a point.

    She backed remain for logical reasons. The voters decided they had other priorities so put more weight on other factors. She has knocked down and implemented the voters instructions to the best of her ability
  • ping said:

    UK Polling Report closing down;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

    Sad but not unexpected.

    I used to be a regular over at Anthony’s blog in the first years, probably 2004-2007ish. I actually started my own blog shortly before both UK Polling Report and PB, and along with Freedom and Whisky and a few other Scottish political blogs, I used to spend all day on them. (2004 was my “year of cancer”, so I had a lot of time on my hands.)

    The only one still going strong is PB. I wonder what the lifecycle of a blog is? Is PB an infant? A teenager? In the prime of life? A middle-aged tosser? Or SeanT?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Mr. Sandpit, new dynamic at Mercedes, though. Russell might be rather less happy to be a wingman.

    I wouldn't back Russell with my own money at those odds.

    Hoping the new regulations help some teams improve, and quite a few could realistically do so.

    Those odds would look a lot more attractive in Lewis did retire and Russel became team leader at Mercedes.
    I don't think he'll retire before trying for another world championship. He wants to beat Schumacher's record. And why shouldn't he?
    Because if you think the system is biased against you why bother doing another season.

    Although I don't expect Lewis to decide whether to continue or not until the unavoidable changes to the race regulations are announced. The question is really, at what point (distance / laps) before the end of the race is a red flag restart automatic if a safety car is required.
  • eek said:

    Peppa has no authority to impose anything. None. I think the most widely adopted response to "you must not gather for Christmas" will be howls of derisive laughter followed by Fuck You.

    Most police officers as I said last night will be finding other crimes to deal with unless the Chief Constable is personally insisting (and assisting).
    This has never been about the police - they cannot impose such things if there is mass disobedience especially when the offences take place in private homes.

    This has always been about leadership from the top making the case as to why this huge sacrifice is needed. And who will listen to that hypocritical prannock this time?
  • Mr. L, indeed, that thought crossed my mind too.

    I expect Hamilton to stick around. But not for too much longer.

    What's intriguing is that multiple midfield teams could make the leap to join the top two (McLaren, Ferrari, Aston Martin, maybe even Alpine).

    And in the last two seasons we've had four midfielders taking victories (Perez, Gasly, Ocon, Ricciardo) which has been good to see. Not to mention I, ahem, tipped two of those to happen.
  • ping said:

    Markets are looking miserable

    Great!
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    eek said:

    Worryingly I think this is Truss’s only way to become PM - so it will probably happen in April /May

    Gideon Rachman
    @gideonrachman
    Prediction: in a few months time, Truss resigns as Foreign Sec, accusing Johnson of not being tough enough with the EU; repeating exactly what Johnson did to May & for same reason: to position for a leadership bid, knowing Tories will always chase rainbow of perfect hard Brexit

    It will merely prove how much the Tories need the bogeyman of Europe as cover for their own shortcomings.... and we will have another blond non-entity as PM.
    The problem with the next Tory PM is that they are virtually all non-entities, the good options were purged by Boris in October 2019.
  • IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "'Liz Truss has edged into pole position ahead of Sunak as Boris Johnson's successor'

    Kevin Maguire can see the vultures circling around the hapless prime minister - and he doesn't trust any of them while thinking Liz Truss is the heir apparent"

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/liz-truss-edged-pole-position-25740844

    Her new Brexit brief, inherited from Lord Frost, might make or break Liz Truss but with both Russia and China on manoeuvres, is this really the time to dump more red boxes on the Foreign Secretary? You can see why Boris has handed her what he hopes is a poisoned chalice, of course.
    The person who’ll get blamed for Brexit is Boris Johnson. End of. The history books are already written. Farage and Cameron will get their footnotes, but otherwise the books are closed.

    In a decade everyone will have utterly disowned both Brexit and Boris. Nobody will have the faintest memory of backing either.
    You have a very odd view of history if you think the books are ever closed. Future generations of historians need to make their living reanalysing the events and coming up with new angles to sell books / make TV programs. ;)
    But Boris’s reputation will get worse with each retelling, with each new revelation and as time enables those who were taken in by his act to forget, or depart.
    Possibly. I certainly don't think he'll end up being seen as a front- or mid-rank PM. But my comment was on the idea that history books were ever 'closed'.

    In addition, the comment was about Brexit. I voted remain, and don't think Brexit has gone very well so far. But it's perfectly possible that in thirty or forty years we look back on the 2016 vote and think: "Yep, they got it right."

    I hope we do.
    Highly unlikely.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    WRT Johnson, all in all; it is just sad what has happened to him. He is a brilliant communicator and reinvented the conservative party from one of its lowest historical ebbs. He had an authenticity lacking in 30 years plus of his predecessors in No.10. Rightly or wrongly he literally reshaped our relationship with Europe. There were paradigm shifting ideas about the role of the state and how the UK needs to develop in a multilateral, post liberal world. But the ideas weren't his, and without Dominic Cummings; he just can't deliver them. He is too distracted by his personal life, and it shows; unable to manage or properly compartmentalise. Within little more than 2 years, he has sunk in to desperate, gutter populism. Without a fantastic reinvention, which seems unlikely; he is very likely to be out within the very near future. A fascinating story, and he will be a brilliant historical character.

    He really does need to refocus his team over Christmas. It’s clear he’s starting to lose the support of his own MPs, needs to get a new Cummings on board as quickly as possible.

    The biggest problem, as the original Cummings identified, is the wife - a somewhat more difficult problem for staff and advisors to work around.
    That’s not a difficult problem

    When he loses his job he won’t be his wife for long
    There's got to be at least one typo in there somewhere.
    Sssome ssshould sssay ssso
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    WRT Johnson, all in all; it is just sad what has happened to him. He is a brilliant communicator and reinvented the conservative party from one of its lowest historical ebbs. He had an authenticity lacking in 30 years plus of his predecessors in No.10. Rightly or wrongly he literally reshaped our relationship with Europe. There were paradigm shifting ideas about the role of the state and how the UK needs to develop in a multilateral, post liberal world. But the ideas weren't his, and without Dominic Cummings; he just can't deliver them. He is too distracted by his personal life, and it shows; unable to manage or properly compartmentalise. Within little more than 2 years, he has sunk in to desperate, gutter populism. Without a fantastic reinvention, which seems unlikely; he is very likely to be out within the very near future. A fascinating story, and he will be a brilliant historical character.

    He really does need to refocus his team over Christmas. It’s clear he’s starting to lose the support of his own MPs, needs to get a new Cummings on board as quickly as possible.

    The biggest problem, as the original Cummings identified, is the wife - a somewhat more difficult problem for staff and advisors to work around.
    That’s not a difficult problem

    When he loses his job he won’t be his wife for long
    There's got to be at least one typo in there somewhere.
    Sssome ssshould sssay ssso
    Would such a person be an s-pert?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    Charles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    Worryingly I think this is Truss’s only way to become PM - so it will probably happen in April /May

    Gideon Rachman
    @gideonrachman
    Prediction: in a few months time, Truss resigns as Foreign Sec, accusing Johnson of not being tough enough with the EU; repeating exactly what Johnson did to May & for same reason: to position for a leadership bid, knowing Tories will always chase rainbow of perfect hard Brexit

    It will merely prove how much the Tories need the bogeyman of Europe as cover for their own shortcomings.... and we will have another blond non-entity as PM.
    Liz Truss was of course a big supporter of Remain at the time of the referendum.

    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/701028930183110656

    "Liz Truss
    @trussliz
    I am backing remain as I believe it is in Britain's economic interest and means we can focus on vital economic and social reform at home.
    1:01 PM · Feb 20, 2016"
    I don’t see why people think this is a point.

    She backed remain for logical reasons. The voters decided they had other priorities so put more weight on other factors. She has knocked down and implemented the voters instructions to the best of her ability
    As I posted yesterday, I wonder if that's why she's (mainly anyway) just rejuvenating already existing EU deals. Easier to get back in once we see sense and Rejoin.
  • Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    WRT Johnson, all in all; it is just sad what has happened to him. He is a brilliant communicator and reinvented the conservative party from one of its lowest historical ebbs. He had an authenticity lacking in 30 years plus of his predecessors in No.10. Rightly or wrongly he literally reshaped our relationship with Europe. There were paradigm shifting ideas about the role of the state and how the UK needs to develop in a multilateral, post liberal world. But the ideas weren't his, and without Dominic Cummings; he just can't deliver them. He is too distracted by his personal life, and it shows; unable to manage or properly compartmentalise. Within little more than 2 years, he has sunk in to desperate, gutter populism. Without a fantastic reinvention, which seems unlikely; he is very likely to be out within the very near future. A fascinating story, and he will be a brilliant historical character.

    He really does need to refocus his team over Christmas. It’s clear he’s starting to lose the support of his own MPs, needs to get a new Cummings on board as quickly as possible.

    The biggest problem, as the original Cummings identified, is the wife - a somewhat more difficult problem for staff and advisors to work around.
    That’s not a difficult problem

    When he loses his job she won’t be his wife for long
    Indeed.

    There are very, very few attractive things about clowns. Without the job he’s a nobody.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,334

    At 16/1 Hunt is looking a reasonable shout. Held major office, health background and potentially overlooked last time round.

    But not mad enough for the swivel-eyed loons of the party...
    Grossly unfair post coming up.

    Has HYUFD expressed a preference yet?
    Yes, he's a Sunak man.
    (IOW he thinks he'll win.)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    WRT Johnson, all in all; it is just sad what has happened to him. He is a brilliant communicator and reinvented the conservative party from one of its lowest historical ebbs. He had an authenticity lacking in 30 years plus of his predecessors in No.10. Rightly or wrongly he literally reshaped our relationship with Europe. There were paradigm shifting ideas about the role of the state and how the UK needs to develop in a multilateral, post liberal world. But the ideas weren't his, and without Dominic Cummings; he just can't deliver them. He is too distracted by his personal life, and it shows; unable to manage or properly compartmentalise. Within little more than 2 years, he has sunk in to desperate, gutter populism. Without a fantastic reinvention, which seems unlikely; he is very likely to be out within the very near future. A fascinating story, and he will be a brilliant historical character.

    He really does need to refocus his team over Christmas. It’s clear he’s starting to lose the support of his own MPs, needs to get a new Cummings on board as quickly as possible.

    The biggest problem, as the original Cummings identified, is the wife - a somewhat more difficult problem for staff and advisors to work around.
    That’s not a difficult problem

    When he loses his job he won’t be his wife for long
    There's got to be at least one typo in there somewhere.
    Sssome ssshould sssay ssso
    Would such a person be an s-pert?
    Satisfactorily so
  • Andy_JS said:

    NOM 5/4
    Con Maj 9/5
    Lab Maj 6/1

    Lab Maj has been stuck at 6/1 for at least a year now, despite 14 straight Labour leads in the polls, the Paterson debacle, Peppa Pig, broken lockdown rules, 100 backbench “shits” etc etc etc.

    At some point that price has to budge?

    It'll budge in the wrong direction when Johnson is replaced.
    Still looking like an *if* Johnson is replaced.

    The Con Party are doing a very good imitation of bunnies stuck in headlights
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,334

    Mr. L, indeed, that thought crossed my mind too.

    I expect Hamilton to stick around. But not for too much longer.

    What's intriguing is that multiple midfield teams could make the leap to join the top two (McLaren, Ferrari, Aston Martin, maybe even Alpine).

    And in the last two seasons we've had four midfielders taking victories (Perez, Gasly, Ocon, Ricciardo) which has been good to see. Not to mention I, ahem, tipped two of those to happen.

    I expect Merc will have a competitive car (they prioritised next season's development over this), and I expect Hamilton to win, and then retire.
    Seems unlikely he'll leave unfinished business.
  • ping said:

    UK Polling Report closing down;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

    Sad but not unexpected.

    I used to be a regular over at Anthony’s blog in the first years, probably 2004-2007ish. I actually started my own blog shortly before both UK Polling Report and PB, and along with Freedom and Whisky and a few other Scottish political blogs, I used to spend all day on them. (2004 was my “year of cancer”, so I had a lot of time on my hands.)

    The only one still going strong is PB. I wonder what the lifecycle of a blog is? Is PB an infant? A teenager? In the prime of life? A middle-aged tosser? Or SeanT?
    If PB were SeanT it would have relaunched as flintknapping.com and devoted half its headers to discussing "hot teens" and most of the rest to a full on war on woke.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 583
    Here comes Scrooge. What is so special about Christmas? For the kids yes but as one who was working most Xmas days it was very little dkfferent to a normal day, except for the empty roads in the morning!!!!!.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    It seems to be taken as a given by media coverage that Truss vs Rishi will be put to the members. Dunno about that.

    One assumes Rishi has sufficient support among MPs to be in the top two and he’s the favourite for good reason. I expect what will happen is the Baker wing will force him into public condemnation of lockdowns and then back him. But I would still be surprised if he has enough support to rig the second place.

    So who is the candidate who genuinely carries the support of the anti Rishis? Who are the anti Rishis? Those who think him too inexperienced? Truss doesn’t tick that box either. Red Wallers? Do they really prefer their chances with a Remainer ex Lib Dem? Personally I think she’s a screaming lay.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    theakes said:

    Here comes Scrooge. What is so special about Christmas? For the kids yes but as one who was working most Xmas days it was very little dkfferent to a normal day, except for the empty roads in the morning!!!!!.

    Hello Scrooge.
This discussion has been closed.