Fraser Nelson deserves an OBE or a knighthood for his questioning of SAGE modelling. After those questions and answers every model from SAGE needs to be thrown out and told to go back to the drawing board modelling all scenarios and their likelihood not just the ones of doom.
That nobody had asked those questions before now is truly shocking.
I was surprised that the scientist was so blase about it in the twitter thread. Perhaps he didn't know who Fraser Nelson was.
He shouldn't have engaged with him on Twitter. SAGE may have their own agenda and the same can probably be said for the Spectator.
Overall I am sick of the debate around it all, too many loud voices with their own agenda on Covid on all positions of the fence. I think it's rather draining right now.
On the difficulty of deciding on a lockdown given currently available information
Prof. Christina Pagel @chrischirp Using deaths or hopsitalisations (which are very lagged indicators) as a marker of Omicron wave's potential severity when cases have risen so rapidly and only reached high levels in the last week is pure abuse of statistics from Heneghan.
Simply put the publicly available data isn't good enough to make any decision regardless of people's viewpoints.
I have no time whatsoever for Pagel. But I probably agree with her last paragraph.
My conclusion would be that you don't take a decision which will go far beyond reasonable impositions of the state on individuals, ruin countless livelihoods and do incalculable long-term damage without rather more evidence than you currently have. Both decisions have an element of risk. Not locking down may be damaging. But locking down will definitely be damaging.
But what if waiting until you know how bad it is means - if it is bad - that either it's now too late to act or you have to act stronger and for longer? I think this is the dilemma we have. Really difficult.
It's a risk. But you can't go doing something as fundamentally illiberal and damaging as a lockdown 'just in case'. You have to have some pretty strong evidence that the reverse will be worse, and we don't have that. My suspicion is that we never will, but that is based upon early indications from South Africa etc. where I concede the context is different. 50% of our population are triple jabbed. 90%+ have antibodies of some sort. The population is changing its behaviour anyway. Deaths are the lowest that they've been since mid-August (they may rise, but they may not). Hospitalisations are within the bounds they have been since summer, and far, far short of what was thought to be acceptable when we opened up.
There is certainly a risk. But we can't go forwards with the threat of lockdown always hanging over us whenever there is a risk, because there will always be a risk.
I have some sympathy for policymakers, because it's much easier to say this as an anonymous bloke on the internet than as the person who will be the target for both real outrage and manufactured outrage and who may lose their job as a result. Though they should be far, far better at questioning the models than they are. I have less sympathy with civil servants and modellers who appear to be trying to cook the books to engineer a lockdown.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico That leads me to oppose restrictions - I believe there should be high confidence things would be disastrous in order to justify restrictions. We shouldn't need high confidence things will not be disastrous to justify living our lives normally. The burden lies the other way.
There are few incentives for the govt's modellers to suppress their natural risk aversion. For them it is better to have fewer deaths/hospitalisations from policies based on pessimistic assumptions than to have fewer bankruptcies / less unemployment because of more optimistic assumptions, even if the latter are realistic. They won't be thanked for a benign economic outcome but they will blamed for excess deaths. It's up to the politicians to decide, and part of that is insisting that they get the complete picture with the whole gamut of known unknowns.
Fraser Nelson deserves an OBE or a knighthood for his questioning of SAGE modelling. After those questions and answers every model from SAGE needs to be thrown out and told to go back to the drawing board modelling all scenarios and their likelihood not just the ones of doom.
That nobody had asked those questions before now is truly shocking.
I was surprised that the scientist was so blase about it in the twitter thread. Perhaps he didn't know who Fraser Nelson was.
He shouldn't have engaged with him on Twitter. SAGE may have their own agenda and the same can probably be said for the Spectator.
Overall I am sick of the debate around it all, too many loud voices with their own agenda on Covid on all positions of the fence. I think it's rather draining right now.
I think the openness is a good thing. We shouldn't just take things at face value.
Looks like Mark Harper is preparing a Tory counter operation against lockdown already. Time to remove the PM.
The problem is they do not have the numbers yet and to have a successful challenge not only do the 54 letters need to go in, but they have to win the vote otherwise that keep Boris there for another year
I for one do not want that to happen
Boris has got no natural allies in the party and the VONC is confidential. After losing Frost he won't get the Brexit Spartans on side either. If they move for a VONC it could all happen very quickly with Boris shoved out before he realises it's time to call the movers.
Fraser Nelson deserves an OBE or a knighthood for his questioning of SAGE modelling. After those questions and answers every model from SAGE needs to be thrown out and told to go back to the drawing board modelling all scenarios and their likelihood not just the ones of doom.
That nobody had asked those questions before now is truly shocking.
I was surprised that the scientist was so blase about it in the twitter thread. Perhaps he didn't know who Fraser Nelson was.
Reading the tweets I got the impression he literally couldn't see what the problem was.
Why model scenarios were nothing very dramatic happens to the NHS seemed to be his view. Maybe I misunderstood - but seemed to be saying ministers only ask for modelling of dramatic stuff as that is when they need a decision.
There is more than her in that link, but what i can see very few papers as lead author and hardly any citations on them. Also most of the ones are just 2-3 page comment pieces for the likes of the BMJ, not full peer review research.
Fraser Nelson deserves an OBE or a knighthood for his questioning of SAGE modelling. After those questions and answers every model from SAGE needs to be thrown out and told to go back to the drawing board modelling all scenarios and their likelihood not just the ones of doom.
That nobody had asked those questions before now is truly shocking.
I was surprised that the scientist was so blase about it in the twitter thread. Perhaps he didn't know who Fraser Nelson was.
He shouldn't have engaged with him on Twitter. SAGE may have their own agenda and the same can probably be said for the Spectator.
Overall I am sick of the debate around it all, too many loud voices with their own agenda on Covid on all positions of the fence. I think it's rather draining right now.
It's draining to have an honest debate about this subject?
Spurs kicked out of Europe. Pretty strict. But it would have helped with Vax rates if the FA had been so firm. Would have helped EFC too.
EPL should have followed US sports approach. Basically not vaxxed you can't practice / travel./ attend meetings withour a whole load of hassle and if your team has an outbreak and you aren't vaxxed, the unvaxxed get the blame. So it quickly terms into a collective thing, you either get on board for the good of the whole team or you are risking the whole team.
US sports are now 90+ % vaxxed.
The UK is 90+% vaxxed without any such measures.
Why aren't athletes?
WhatsApp conspiracy nonsense.
Why are athletes more vulnerable to such conspiracy nonsense than the general population?
Or is it just an age thing?
Anecdotally my students tell me its an extension of 'clean eating' into not putting ANYTHING into your body that isn't organic (yes, i know!). Some of them will not even take a paracetamol. This is including my pharmacy students.
I am sure they would take a painkilling injection if the management/team demanded it.
Indeed. Not all are formal research papers, some look at first sight of the biblio more like the comment pieces at the front of Nature, but still productive.
Fraser Nelson deserves an OBE or a knighthood for his questioning of SAGE modelling. After those questions and answers every model from SAGE needs to be thrown out and told to go back to the drawing board modelling all scenarios and their likelihood not just the ones of doom.
That nobody had asked those questions before now is truly shocking.
I did hear a scientist reject Sage advice this morning on 5 live but he seems a lone voice as independent sage are the ones the media go to
There has to be a reckoning with both the media and the other scientific groups held to account
Fraser Nelson deserves an OBE or a knighthood for his questioning of SAGE modelling. After those questions and answers every model from SAGE needs to be thrown out and told to go back to the drawing board modelling all scenarios and their likelihood not just the ones of doom.
That nobody had asked those questions before now is truly shocking.
I'm amazed Boris didn't appoint Nelson to formulate Covid policy from the very outset. All the credentials were there - Brexit, Spectator, knows more about epidemiology than all the scientists put together. How did Boris let that one slip?
Fraser Nelson deserves an OBE or a knighthood for his questioning of SAGE modelling. After those questions and answers every model from SAGE needs to be thrown out and told to go back to the drawing board modelling all scenarios and their likelihood not just the ones of doom.
That nobody had asked those questions before now is truly shocking.
I was surprised that the scientist was so blase about it in the twitter thread. Perhaps he didn't know who Fraser Nelson was.
He shouldn't have engaged with him on Twitter. SAGE may have their own agenda and the same can probably be said for the Spectator.
Overall I am sick of the debate around it all, too many loud voices with their own agenda on Covid on all positions of the fence. I think it's rather draining right now.
It's draining to have an honest debate about this subject?
And when literally millions of lives are potentially completely upended and ancient, basic freedoms are withdrawn.
We had better debate how we get to these decisions because some think we will go through this every winter now.
Fraser Nelson deserves an OBE or a knighthood for his questioning of SAGE modelling. After those questions and answers every model from SAGE needs to be thrown out and told to go back to the drawing board modelling all scenarios and their likelihood not just the ones of doom.
That nobody had asked those questions before now is truly shocking.
I'm amazed Boris didn't appoint Nelson to formulate Covid policy from the very outset. All the credentials were there - Brexit, Spectator, knows more about epidemiology than all the scientists put together. How did Boris let that one slip?
Based on the weekend reports could be a Cabinet row. Sunak, Truss and Rees Mogg and Kwarteng opposed to more restrictions, only Gove and Javid in favour.
Javid started off well putting needed pressure on the JCVI after their stalling under Hancock.
But now he seems to have very swiftly 'gone native' and surrendered to the Blob. He's lost all my respect, he should be able to see through and understand these 'models', why can't he?
I'm sorry to hear this, Philip. And so will the Saj be. On top of all that he's grappling with, to lose your respect will be a bitter blow indeed.
Looks like Mark Harper is preparing a Tory counter operation against lockdown already. Time to remove the PM.
The problem is they do not have the numbers yet and to have a successful challenge not only do the 54 letters need to go in, but they have to win the vote otherwise that keep Boris there for another year
Looks like Mark Harper is preparing a Tory counter operation against lockdown already. Time to remove the PM.
The problem is they do not have the numbers yet and to have a successful challenge not only do the 54 letters need to go in, but they have to win the vote otherwise that keep Boris there for another year
I for one do not want that to happen
We need him out now. Before 2pm, if possible. If he stays today, he locks us down for - what - another month? Another three months? Another 6 months?
Looks like Mark Harper is preparing a Tory counter operation against lockdown already. Time to remove the PM.
The problem is they do not have the numbers yet and to have a successful challenge not only do the 54 letters need to go in, but they have to win the vote otherwise that keep Boris there for another year
I for one do not want that to happen
Boris has got no natural allies in the party and the VONC is confidential. After losing Frost he won't get the Brexit Spartans on side either. If they move for a VONC it could all happen very quickly with Boris shoved out before he realises it's time to call the movers.
Presumably if he loses the VONC then that is basically saying the MPs will only put forward two candidates who both give caste iron guarantees that there will be no more lockdowns or vaxports bollx?
Fraser Nelson deserves an OBE or a knighthood for his questioning of SAGE modelling. After those questions and answers every model from SAGE needs to be thrown out and told to go back to the drawing board modelling all scenarios and their likelihood not just the ones of doom.
That nobody had asked those questions before now is truly shocking.
I was surprised that the scientist was so blase about it in the twitter thread. Perhaps he didn't know who Fraser Nelson was.
He shouldn't have engaged with him on Twitter. SAGE may have their own agenda and the same can probably be said for the Spectator.
Overall I am sick of the debate around it all, too many loud voices with their own agenda on Covid on all positions of the fence. I think it's rather draining right now.
It's draining to have an honest debate about this subject?
I find it draining, but that's just me. I am not speaking for others.
Why do they stand for this? Why aren’t they jumping up and down over this bullshit government by quad?
One has told the Telegraph they will resign if another lockdown.
But yes, this is the most supine cabinet we have had in a while. Pathetic. Of course, they are basically low grade courtiers rather than cabinet ministers.
Boris doesn't care about the competency of his ministers merely their willingness to protect him...
Fraser Nelson deserves an OBE or a knighthood for his questioning of SAGE modelling. After those questions and answers every model from SAGE needs to be thrown out and told to go back to the drawing board modelling all scenarios and their likelihood not just the ones of doom.
That nobody had asked those questions before now is truly shocking.
I'm amazed Boris didn't appoint Nelson to formulate Covid policy from the very outset. All the credentials were there - Brexit, Spectator, knows more about epidemiology than all the scientists put together. How did Boris let that one slip?
You don't have to be an expert in epidemiology to realise there is something very wrong about how they are approaching their modeling
Looks like Mark Harper is preparing a Tory counter operation against lockdown already. Time to remove the PM.
The problem is they do not have the numbers yet and to have a successful challenge not only do the 54 letters need to go in, but they have to win the vote otherwise that keep Boris there for another year
Looks like Mark Harper is preparing a Tory counter operation against lockdown already. Time to remove the PM.
The problem is they do not have the numbers yet and to have a successful challenge not only do the 54 letters need to go in, but they have to win the vote otherwise that keep Boris there for another year
I for one do not want that to happen
We need him out now. Before 2pm, if possible. If he stays today, he locks us down for - what - another month? Another three months? Another 6 months?
If he does it will start as just a two week circuit breaker and then come second week of January another load of models will come out showing we need to just do another three weeks so everyone is boosted and on and on and on...
but of course Brexit is over because we are no longer part of the EU, and we are not going back.
If Brexit was over we wouldn't need Truss to negotiate Brexit...
She's not. She's negotiating a trading arrangement with the EU. Its complicated by the GFA. There is no easy solution.
Brexit is the trade deals. While some people may think Brexit is over - it really isn't. Wait until January 1st when the real paperwork is required for both sides and France really start to be anal about errors.
It will be at least a decade before we get any real answers to strengths and weaknesses of Brexit.
Not even then. There will be far too many intervening factors to identify the economic effects for good or ill. Given Covid there almost certainly are too many factors already.
Like last year, the government is leaving it too late. There are just five days left to the big day and families need to know in advance how much food to buy, and whether to post cards and presents or hand them over in person. And in a couple of days time, any announcement will likely be lost in the noise of the run-up to Christmas because people have got too much else on rather than being glued to The Saj's ambiguous murmurings or Professor Whitty's next slide please.
Johnson follows. Sturgeon and Drakeford lead.
Surely not!
The Johnson enthusiasts were preening themselves that Scotland and Wales were Covid-failed states whilst Bozzaland was ticking along nicely and SA hospitisation and mortality data confirmed his genius only a week ago.
After nearly 7 years, in April I'm moving on from best daily reporting job + the most wonderful team in the business. It's been an honour and an amazing ride - more to come in 2022! With love + thanks to all at @BBCPolitics
Mr. Borough, this reminds me of when I took Psychology at university. Almost everyone had the subject for A-level as their prerequisite. I didn't, I had Maths. Not a great grade, but still.
It was surprisingly useful in so many ways, and the lack of a grasp of some basic mathematical/scientific principles from others was shocking.
I just spoke to a friend (from university) who expressed much the same view and was now thoroughly distrustful of the modelling because of it.
Fraser Nelson deserves an OBE or a knighthood for his questioning of SAGE modelling. After those questions and answers every model from SAGE needs to be thrown out and told to go back to the drawing board modelling all scenarios and their likelihood not just the ones of doom.
That nobody had asked those questions before now is truly shocking.
I'm amazed Boris didn't appoint Nelson to formulate Covid policy from the very outset. All the credentials were there - Brexit, Spectator, knows more about epidemiology than all the scientists put together. How did Boris let that one slip?
You don't have to be an expert in epidemiology to realise there is something very wrong about how they are approaching their modeling
Nelson is doing his job. Asking irritating questions that the technocrats don't want to answer.
A fine job he has been doing in last 24 hours thats for sure.
Based on the weekend reports could be a Cabinet row. Sunak, Truss and Rees Mogg and Kwarteng opposed to more restrictions, only Gove and Javid in favour.
I'd certainly be aggrieved if I was expected to attend such a meeting without at least a fairly detailed agenda; who was leading on what etc.
Getting a bit sick of 'blame the politicians, not the modellers' line as well. Every modeller in every field reports in to someone else who sets the remit. But every modeller worth their salt raises issues, creates their own scenarios when needed and points out what their tune caller is missing. If you just do what you're asked uncritically, you are crap at your job.
In addition to that, you have to be up for the fight when whoever commissioned your work misuses it in a press release/tweet/paper.
You shouldn't detail your caveats then wash your hands of it. I'm got into some furious spats over this before (usually lose, but at least I try).
I was chatting with a senior civil service official who I happen to know - she works as a head of department in a different controversial area which I won't identify - about how the Ministerial advice process currently works.
1. The Ministerial teams with an interest in the issue are identified - possibly though not usually including colleagues from other Ministries. Many will have their own agendas to push - more hawkish on this, higher-spending on that - from personal preference or Ministerial steer. The Treasury team, for instance, always start from the viewpoint of "spend less money". 2. The lead team on the issue will draft a Ministerial paper with options, typically three. Ostensibly neutral, they will often be engineered so as to guide Ministers to the middle one, and the others may be labelled "not recommended". 3. The other teams with an interest will then attack the draft from their viewpoints, and eventually an agreed compromise paper will go up to the Minister, with options (which may be now be different from the original draft). 4. The Minister will then make a choice (which could be to refer it back for redrafting, but this is unusual), and that's the policy unless a more senior Minister/the PM overrules it.
Steps 1-3 are partly manipulative, but there are dangers as some Ministers are known to be "all too ready" (depending on your viewpoint) to opt for a "not recommended" option, without having obviously thought it through. This constrains civil servants top make sure they can live with all the outcomes, rather than put "slaughter of the first-born" as one option.
This is perhaps all roughly what we'd expect (echoes of Yes Minister, though not with the bias to "do nothing" implied in that series), but it's actually a bit different from what I've found in local government, where the full-time officials generally present an oven-ready single proposal to councillors, rather than a choice of options. I've made it made of my work to encourage them to the option-based approach, but I do realise the risk of manipulation.
Hi Nick, very interesting, thanks. Do you mind if I use it for teaching A-level politics? There's a unit on how policy making works this would be very helpful for.
Looks like Mark Harper is preparing a Tory counter operation against lockdown already. Time to remove the PM.
The problem is they do not have the numbers yet and to have a successful challenge not only do the 54 letters need to go in, but they have to win the vote otherwise that keep Boris there for another year
Looks like Mark Harper is preparing a Tory counter operation against lockdown already. Time to remove the PM.
The problem is they do not have the numbers yet and to have a successful challenge not only do the 54 letters need to go in, but they have to win the vote otherwise that keep Boris there for another year
I for one do not want that to happen
We need him out now. Before 2pm, if possible. If he stays today, he locks us down for - what - another month? Another three months? Another 6 months?
If he does it will start as just a two week circuit breaker and then come second week of January another load of models will come out showing we need to just do another three weeks so everyone is boosted and on and on and on...
The fact anybody is even putting forward the idea of a 2 week circuit breaker...it doesn't work.....it takes a least a week for any measure to even start to kick in, as actually when you lock down you put people together for longer and that increases transmission within households.
Fraser Nelson deserves an OBE or a knighthood for his questioning of SAGE modelling. After those questions and answers every model from SAGE needs to be thrown out and told to go back to the drawing board modelling all scenarios and their likelihood not just the ones of doom.
That nobody had asked those questions before now is truly shocking.
I'm amazed Boris didn't appoint Nelson to formulate Covid policy from the very outset. All the credentials were there - Brexit, Spectator, knows more about epidemiology than all the scientists put together. How did Boris let that one slip?
You don't have to be an expert in epidemiology to realise there is something very wrong about how they are approaching their modeling
Nelson is doing his job. Asking irritating questions that the technocrats don't want to answer.
A fine job he has been doing in last 24 hours thats for sure.
It should be the job of somebody in the Cabinet or one of their advisors too.
I was in Asda briefly this morning and despite Drakeford's mask mandate many were just not wearing them and some seem to think they are worn below the nose
I really do not understand people who have a disregard for their fellow citizens
I've just come back from a run in the centre of Cambridge (doing yet more streets I haven't done yet), and I nipped into four shops - including a large one. All customers were wearing masks, except one who had a clear face shield on. All staff wore masks as well, although one man had it under his nose. Everyone I saw in the Grafton Centre (outside shops) had one on.
Looks like Mark Harper is preparing a Tory counter operation against lockdown already. Time to remove the PM.
The problem is they do not have the numbers yet and to have a successful challenge not only do the 54 letters need to go in, but they have to win the vote otherwise that keep Boris there for another year
I for one do not want that to happen
Boris has got no natural allies in the party and the VONC is confidential. After losing Frost he won't get the Brexit Spartans on side either. If they move for a VONC it could all happen very quickly with Boris shoved out before he realises it's time to call the movers.
Presumably if he loses the VONC then that is basically saying the MPs will only put forward two candidates who both give caste iron guarantees that there will be no more lockdowns or vaxports bollx?
I think they'd have to because the candidate that proposes "no lockdowns ever" will win with members so they'll both have to go down that road. It's like Boris vs Hunt with Boris campaigning on "get Brexit done" and Hunt saying "let's be best friends with the EU", the members were only ever going to vote for Boris in that fight. Any candidate in the final two who isn't fully signed up to no more lockdowns, no more vaccine passports and no more Chris Whitty telling everyone how to live will struggle to get above 20% of the member's vote.
On topic there is little practical benefit to putting in restrictions for Christmas at this stage. Plans have been made. People are travelling as we speak. Food has been bought.
The chances of getting the population to comply this year are nigh on impossible, given how late it is in the day and all the news stories that are coming out about last year (“it was OK for you guys then,” etc…)
I suspect we’ll get advisory warnings not to mix more than 2 households or whatever which will be promptly ignored by all and sundry.
I’m not even sure restrictions after Christmas are going to be particularly closely followed. The festive season isn’t just Christmas Day: it’s often a chain of events leading up to and including New Year’s Day.
The first day where meaningful restrictions can probably be introduced is from 2 January - the miserable weeks where nothing much happens anyway.
Does Daughter - and all those in her position - order in food and drinks and risk finding herself with unsold stock because at the last minute a curfew is imposed or venues are told to close like last year?
Or does she simply keep the place closed to minimise losses? It's not as if there are only 5 working days before 4 days of holidays and plans to be made and deadlines to be met. I mean, all the time in the world for governments to faff around like clueless idiots.
And it's not as if she needs to order food for the 27th / 28th now because suppliers won't be open on then.
It's a tough decision with zero right answers - personally I would probably be skipping the food and doing drinks (but I know that's not where the profit is).
Closure looks the most likely. What on earth is the point of carrying on? She may as well have some rest at home. She certainly deserves it.
That does sound perhaps the way to go.
Just a question from somebody who knows not much about the catering trade -
Would an option be to just shut down, lie low or do something else for a while, then when Covid looks reliably over, and if the desire and ambition remains, fire up again using the contacts and expertise amassed?
Her lease comes to an end in March. She will not be renewing. She will be using the contacts she has amassed and the experience she has gained to move on to something else - as yet undecided. Certainly many of her customers - experienced professionals not prone to giving undeserved compliments - have said that she should have no difficulty getting something worthwhile and will succeed at whatever she does.
She did originally have plans to expand the venue - and had lots of ideas for it - and was thinking of getting someone to invest with her and she would move into being an overall manager rather than doing all the day to day stuff, having first built up the business and reputation. She has certainly done the latter but it is hard to see who would want to invest in this sector at such a time.
Though in reality it is - if you can get in at the right price - quite a good time to develop the venue. Where we live will soon be in the Lake District National Park, tourism is expanding and there is some government investment in the area. But another year of fighting to keep the place alive with all this uncertainty, no support, price increases etc - no, she's had enough of that. Time to take stock and do what is best for her.
Fraser Nelson deserves an OBE or a knighthood for his questioning of SAGE modelling. After those questions and answers every model from SAGE needs to be thrown out and told to go back to the drawing board modelling all scenarios and their likelihood not just the ones of doom.
That nobody had asked those questions before now is truly shocking.
I'm amazed Boris didn't appoint Nelson to formulate Covid policy from the very outset. All the credentials were there - Brexit, Spectator, knows more about epidemiology than all the scientists put together. How did Boris let that one slip?
He'd have done a better job. 👍
LOL. Well, pretty sure Sweden would not have been the only test case of not having mandatory lockdowns and schools closed for months if Fraser had been.
Looks like Mark Harper is preparing a Tory counter operation against lockdown already. Time to remove the PM.
The problem is they do not have the numbers yet and to have a successful challenge not only do the 54 letters need to go in, but they have to win the vote otherwise that keep Boris there for another year
I for one do not want that to happen
Boris has got no natural allies in the party and the VONC is confidential. After losing Frost he won't get the Brexit Spartans on side either. If they move for a VONC it could all happen very quickly with Boris shoved out before he realises it's time to call the movers.
Looks like Mark Harper is preparing a Tory counter operation against lockdown already. Time to remove the PM.
The problem is they do not have the numbers yet and to have a successful challenge not only do the 54 letters need to go in, but they have to win the vote otherwise that keep Boris there for another year
I for one do not want that to happen
Boris has got no natural allies in the party and the VONC is confidential. After losing Frost he won't get the Brexit Spartans on side either. If they move for a VONC it could all happen very quickly with Boris shoved out before he realises it's time to call the movers.
It could but equally they could lose
They do need to be certain and do not forget I want Boris out of post as much as you do
I was in Asda briefly this morning and despite Drakeford's mask mandate many were just not wearing them and some seem to think they are worn below the nose
I really do not understand people who have a disregard for their fellow citizens
Looks like Mark Harper is preparing a Tory counter operation against lockdown already. Time to remove the PM.
The problem is they do not have the numbers yet and to have a successful challenge not only do the 54 letters need to go in, but they have to win the vote otherwise that keep Boris there for another year
Looks like Mark Harper is preparing a Tory counter operation against lockdown already. Time to remove the PM.
The problem is they do not have the numbers yet and to have a successful challenge not only do the 54 letters need to go in, but they have to win the vote otherwise that keep Boris there for another year
I for one do not want that to happen
We need him out now. Before 2pm, if possible. If he stays today, he locks us down for - what - another month? Another three months? Another 6 months?
I doubt there will be any kind of lockdown. Maybe some restrictions on indoor socialising for a week or two, starting after Christmas, at most. I don't think more aggressive measures are justified (and even if they were, I don't think the government would bring them in).
Based on the weekend reports could be a Cabinet row. Sunak, Truss and Rees Mogg and Kwarteng opposed to more restrictions, only Gove and Javid in favour.
Javid started off well putting needed pressure on the JCVI after their stalling under Hancock.
But now he seems to have very swiftly 'gone native' and surrendered to the Blob. He's lost all my respect, he should be able to see through and understand these 'models', why can't he?
That's why for me Javid has far more credibility.
No one knows anything till we get solid UK data on hospitalisation and death. I understand their caution.
There is more than her in that link, but what i can see very few papers as lead author and hardly any citations on them.
That's normal when you are a professor. Gotta give the younglings the first authorship.
No, i mean that link into Christine Pagel, there are at least two other Pagels listed. i mean she is already talking about things outside her area of expertise, but she isn't writing these papers such as.....
"Considering the potential influence of social media on in-water encounters with marine wildlife"
In that list its picking up people like Chantel Pagel. Its also picking up 2 page comment pieces, which are basically just her media stuff, not proper peer reviewed research.
Based on the weekend reports could be a Cabinet row. Sunak, Truss and Rees Mogg and Kwarteng opposed to more restrictions, only Gove and Javid in favour.
Obviously I am not a cheer leader for the government, and I will hate lockdown on my holiday plans. But to be fair, Doesn’t a lot of this chatter on PB about covid and restrictions, though seems very good to me on the stats and understanding of bugs and drugs, and the needs to balance liberalism in the decisions, actually miss the big elephant in the room about political dangers of calling it wrong?
For example, if there is a surge on NHS capacity in next couple of months, people dying on trolleys in corridors before they treated, same with those in ambulances waiting outside, and the ambulances outside tied up and 999 waiting times in tatters, the government party could forget all about winning any elections, mid term, local, general election for the next fifteen years with their book badly blotted like that?
Surely there is immense long term political danger in making the wrong call this week - that is also on their minds as they weight up all the considerations at 2pm?
Maybe a tad to easy to advise via blog posts or criticise from back benches when don’t have to carry the can for BIG decision makings?
Looks like Mark Harper is preparing a Tory counter operation against lockdown already. Time to remove the PM.
The problem is they do not have the numbers yet and to have a successful challenge not only do the 54 letters need to go in, but they have to win the vote otherwise that keep Boris there for another year
I for one do not want that to happen
Boris has got no natural allies in the party and the VONC is confidential. After losing Frost he won't get the Brexit Spartans on side either. If they move for a VONC it could all happen very quickly with Boris shoved out before he realises it's time to call the movers.
It could but equally they could lose
They do need to be certain and do not forget I want Boris out of post as much as you do
How could they lose? Who is going to vote to keep Boris around in a confidential vote. They already have the numbers, it's just about timing now. I think before Frost resigned Boris may have been able to rouse some of the Brexit Spartans to his cause and possibly made a fight of it, without Frost he's in big trouble.
Spurs kicked out of Europe. Pretty strict. But it would have helped with Vax rates if the FA had been so firm. Would have helped EFC too.
EPL should have followed US sports approach. Basically not vaxxed you can't practice / travel./ attend meetings withour a whole load of hassle and if your team has an outbreak and you aren't vaxxed, the unvaxxed get the blame. So it quickly terms into a collective thing, you either get on board for the good of the whole team or you are risking the whole team.
US sports are now 90+ % vaxxed.
The UK is 90+% vaxxed without any such measures.
Why aren't athletes?
WhatsApp conspiracy nonsense.
Why are athletes more vulnerable to such conspiracy nonsense than the general population?
Or is it just an age thing?
Anecdotally my students tell me its an extension of 'clean eating' into not putting ANYTHING into your body that isn't organic (yes, i know!). Some of them will not even take a paracetamol. This is including my pharmacy students.
I am sure they would take a painkilling injection if the management/team demanded it.
I cannot understand that attitude from pharmacy students. They've made a life choice to be working with chemical entities, which, one way and another are going to be put into, or onto, bodies. Writing as a retired pharmacist who wasn't by any means always concerned with 'supply'.
There is more than her in that link, but what i can see very few papers as lead author and hardly any citations on them.
That's normal when you are a professor. Gotta give the younglings the first authorship.
No, i mean that link into Christine Pagel, there are at least two other Pagels listed. i mean she is already talking about things outside her area of expertise, but she isn't writing these papers...
"Considering the potential influence of social media on in-water encounters with marine wildlife"
In that list its picking up people like Chantel Pagel. Its also picking up 2 page comment pieces, which are basically just her media stuff, not proper peer reviewed research.
On topic there is little practical benefit to putting in restrictions for Christmas at this stage. Plans have been made. People are travelling as we speak. Food has been bought.
The chances of getting the population to comply this year are nigh on impossible, given how late it is in the day and all the news stories that are coming out about last year (“it was OK for you guys then,” etc…)
I suspect we’ll get advisory warnings not to mix more than 2 households or whatever which will be promptly ignored by all and sundry.
I’m not even sure restrictions after Christmas are going to be particularly closely followed. The festive season isn’t just Christmas Day: it’s often a chain of events leading up to and including New Year’s Day.
The first day where meaningful restrictions can probably be introduced is from 2 January - the miserable weeks where nothing much happens anyway.
Does Daughter - and all those in her position - order in food and drinks and risk finding herself with unsold stock because at the last minute a curfew is imposed or venues are told to close like last year?
Or does she simply keep the place closed to minimise losses? It's not as if there are only 5 working days before 4 days of holidays and plans to be made and deadlines to be met. I mean, all the time in the world for governments to faff around like clueless idiots.
And it's not as if she needs to order food for the 27th / 28th now because suppliers won't be open on then.
It's a tough decision with zero right answers - personally I would probably be skipping the food and doing drinks (but I know that's not where the profit is).
Closure looks the most likely. What on earth is the point of carrying on? She may as well have some rest at home. She certainly deserves it.
That does sound perhaps the way to go.
Just a question from somebody who knows not much about the catering trade -
Would an option be to just shut down, lie low or do something else for a while, then when Covid looks reliably over, and if the desire and ambition remains, fire up again using the contacts and expertise amassed?
Her lease comes to an end in March. She will not be renewing. She will be using the contacts she has amassed and the experience she has gained to move on to something else - as yet undecided. Certainly many of her customers - experienced professionals not prone to giving undeserved compliments - have said that she should have no difficulty getting something worthwhile and will succeed at whatever she does.
She did originally have plans to expand the venue - and had lots of ideas for it - and was thinking of getting someone to invest with her and she would move into being an overall manager rather than doing all the day to day stuff, having first built up the business and reputation. She has certainly done the latter but it is hard to see who would want to invest in this sector at such a time.
Though in reality it is - if you can get in at the right price - quite a good time to develop the venue. Where we live will soon be in the Lake District National Park, tourism is expanding and there is some government investment in the area. But another year of fighting to keep the place alive with all this uncertainty, no support, price increases etc - no, she's had enough of that. Time to take stock and do what is best for her.
Every pub landlord/lady in UK must be thinking that at the moment. Sad times.
I was in Asda briefly this morning and despite Drakeford's mask mandate many were just not wearing them and some seem to think they are worn below the nose
I really do not understand people who have a disregard for their fellow citizens
Asda, innit. Go to Sainsbury's, everyone is masked in there.
Fraser Nelson deserves an OBE or a knighthood for his questioning of SAGE modelling. After those questions and answers every model from SAGE needs to be thrown out and told to go back to the drawing board modelling all scenarios and their likelihood not just the ones of doom.
That nobody had asked those questions before now is truly shocking.
I was surprised that the scientist was so blase about it in the twitter thread. Perhaps he didn't know who Fraser Nelson was.
He shouldn't have engaged with him on Twitter. SAGE may have their own agenda and the same can probably be said for the Spectator.
Overall I am sick of the debate around it all, too many loud voices with their own agenda on Covid on all positions of the fence. I think it's rather draining right now.
Fraser Nelson is a disgrace. Absolute pond filth spectrum of journalism.
After nearly 7 years, in April I'm moving on from best daily reporting job + the most wonderful team in the business. It's been an honour and an amazing ride - more to come in 2022! With love + thanks to all at @BBCPolitics
Unfortunately, one doesn’t get the impression she’s going for a quiet retirement, more like leaving one team to join another. Boulton’s job at Sky probably.
Looks like Mark Harper is preparing a Tory counter operation against lockdown already. Time to remove the PM.
The problem is they do not have the numbers yet and to have a successful challenge not only do the 54 letters need to go in, but they have to win the vote otherwise that keep Boris there for another year
Looks like Mark Harper is preparing a Tory counter operation against lockdown already. Time to remove the PM.
The problem is they do not have the numbers yet and to have a successful challenge not only do the 54 letters need to go in, but they have to win the vote otherwise that keep Boris there for another year
I for one do not want that to happen
We need him out now. Before 2pm, if possible. If he stays today, he locks us down for - what - another month? Another three months? Another 6 months?
If he does it will start as just a two week circuit breaker and then come second week of January another load of models will come out showing we need to just do another three weeks so everyone is boosted and on and on and on...
The fact anybody is even putting forward the idea of a 2 week circuit breaker...it doesn't work.....it takes a least a week for any measure to even start to kick in, as actually when you lock down you put people together for longer and that increases transmission within households.
Drakeford proved that in Wales when he tried it and it failed
Its not, the list is at least 3 different C Pagel's and also media articles.....I stopped checking the different authors after page 4,.it might be even more different authors.
Looks like Mark Harper is preparing a Tory counter operation against lockdown already. Time to remove the PM.
The problem is they do not have the numbers yet and to have a successful challenge not only do the 54 letters need to go in, but they have to win the vote otherwise that keep Boris there for another year
Looks like Mark Harper is preparing a Tory counter operation against lockdown already. Time to remove the PM.
The problem is they do not have the numbers yet and to have a successful challenge not only do the 54 letters need to go in, but they have to win the vote otherwise that keep Boris there for another year
I for one do not want that to happen
We need him out now. Before 2pm, if possible. If he stays today, he locks us down for - what - another month? Another three months? Another 6 months?
If he does it will start as just a two week circuit breaker and then come second week of January another load of models will come out showing we need to just do another three weeks so everyone is boosted and on and on and on...
The fact anybody is even putting forward the idea of a 2 week circuit breaker...it doesn't work.....it takes a least a week for any measure to even start to kick in, as actually when you lock down you put people together for longer and that increases transmission within households.
They don't care. They just want to avoid saying at outset that this is a month long lockdown at least.
There is more than her in that link, but what i can see very few papers as lead author and hardly any citations on them. Also most of the ones are just 2-3 page comment pieces for the likes of the BMJ, not full peer review research.
So the answer seems not a lot.
Those are papers in which she is a co-author. It is the nature of modern science that research is generally highly collaborative and papers may have many authors. The list does include comment pieces (but only comment pieces in academic journals). Given these are papers published in 2020-1, it’s not surprising if they don’t have many citations. It can take time for citations to come through.
Overall, it’s an impressive publication record. (Way better than mine!)
After nearly 7 years, in April I'm moving on from best daily reporting job + the most wonderful team in the business. It's been an honour and an amazing ride - more to come in 2022! With love + thanks to all at @BBCPolitics
After nearly 7 years, in April I'm moving on from best daily reporting job + the most wonderful team in the business. It's been an honour and an amazing ride - more to come in 2022! With love + thanks to all at @BBCPolitics
Unfortunately, one doesn’t get the impression she’s going for a quiet retirement, more like leaving one team to join another. Boulton’s job at Sky probably.
There is more than her in that link, but what i can see very few papers as lead author and hardly any citations on them. Also most of the ones are just 2-3 page comment pieces for the likes of the BMJ, not full peer review research.
So the answer seems not a lot.
Those are papers in which she is a co-author. It is the nature of modern science that research is generally highly collaborative and papers may have many authors. The list does include comment pieces (but only comment pieces in academic journals). Given these are papers published in 2020-1, it’s not surprising if they don’t have many citations. It can take time for citations to come through.
Overall, it’s an impressive publication record. (Way better than mine!)
Nope....your link has picked up loads of other Pagel's e.g Chantel Pagel. Also I don't class a 2 page comment piece as a full bit of research, that's like counting an article in the guardian as an academic publication.
I hope you check your own research more throughly.
On topic there is little practical benefit to putting in restrictions for Christmas at this stage. Plans have been made. People are travelling as we speak. Food has been bought.
The chances of getting the population to comply this year are nigh on impossible, given how late it is in the day and all the news stories that are coming out about last year (“it was OK for you guys then,” etc…)
I suspect we’ll get advisory warnings not to mix more than 2 households or whatever which will be promptly ignored by all and sundry.
I’m not even sure restrictions after Christmas are going to be particularly closely followed. The festive season isn’t just Christmas Day: it’s often a chain of events leading up to and including New Year’s Day.
The first day where meaningful restrictions can probably be introduced is from 2 January - the miserable weeks where nothing much happens anyway.
Does Daughter - and all those in her position - order in food and drinks and risk finding herself with unsold stock because at the last minute a curfew is imposed or venues are told to close like last year?
Or does she simply keep the place closed to minimise losses? It's not as if there are only 5 working days before 4 days of holidays and plans to be made and deadlines to be met. I mean, all the time in the world for governments to faff around like clueless idiots.
And it's not as if she needs to order food for the 27th / 28th now because suppliers won't be open on then.
It's a tough decision with zero right answers - personally I would probably be skipping the food and doing drinks (but I know that's not where the profit is).
Closure looks the most likely. What on earth is the point of carrying on? She may as well have some rest at home. She certainly deserves it.
That does sound perhaps the way to go.
Just a question from somebody who knows not much about the catering trade -
Would an option be to just shut down, lie low or do something else for a while, then when Covid looks reliably over, and if the desire and ambition remains, fire up again using the contacts and expertise amassed?
Her lease comes to an end in March. She will not be renewing. She will be using the contacts she has amassed and the experience she has gained to move on to something else - as yet undecided. Certainly many of her customers - experienced professionals not prone to giving undeserved compliments - have said that she should have no difficulty getting something worthwhile and will succeed at whatever she does.
She did originally have plans to expand the venue - and had lots of ideas for it - and was thinking of getting someone to invest with her and she would move into being an overall manager rather than doing all the day to day stuff, having first built up the business and reputation. She has certainly done the latter but it is hard to see who would want to invest in this sector at such a time.
Though in reality it is - if you can get in at the right price - quite a good time to develop the venue. Where we live will soon be in the Lake District National Park, tourism is expanding and there is some government investment in the area. But another year of fighting to keep the place alive with all this uncertainty, no support, price increases etc - no, she's had enough of that. Time to take stock and do what is best for her.
Best of luck to her. Experience, reflected sensibly upon, is rarely wasted.
Rishi is a very strong communicator. But he is an Ayn Rand ultra, and supported Brexit from the start. He therefore clearly has a screw loose somewhere.
I don’t want a plutocrat as PM, I think on balance I’d prefer Truss even though she is actually ghastly.
If he is an Ayn Rand ultra how come he has spent far more than George Osborne or Philip Hammond did as Chancellor or indeed more than Gordon Brown did in New Labour's first term? He has also raised corporation tax and NI
Some confusion, I think: Javid is the Ayn Rand ultra; I'm not aware that Sunak is.
Though in the Cabinet Javid seems most keen on new state imposed Covid restrictions along with Gove, which is hardly Ayn Rand.
The closest Tory leadership contender to Rand ideology is actually probably Steve Baker
That a lunatic like Rand even features on the reading lists of potential leadership contenders shows how far the Tories have drifted from the mainstream.
Rand is one of the greatest authors of the 20th century. 👍
No wonder leftwing loonies despise her. They'd rather be reading Marx.
Hmm sorry Philip but I have to strongly disagree with you here.
As Malmesbury correctly says, Rand made some interesting observations about 20th century society and was also, in my opinion, right on many aspects of the relationship between people and the Government and how it has gone radically wrong over the last 150 years. I very strongly like many of her Libertarian positions.
But to say she was one of the greatest authors of the 20th century is simply wrong. She was a terrible writer who might have had a good story to tell and might have had an important message but who smothered that in some of the worst prose written since WW2. To be a great author you first and foremost have to be a good writer, a good wordsmith. This won't on its own make you a great author but you can't be one without it.
Ayn Rand was a bloody awful writer and would have been wiser to have picked another medium to promote her message and philosophy.
Fraser Nelson deserves an OBE or a knighthood for his questioning of SAGE modelling. After those questions and answers every model from SAGE needs to be thrown out and told to go back to the drawing board modelling all scenarios and their likelihood not just the ones of doom.
That nobody had asked those questions before now is truly shocking.
And that's on the politicians. Not enough scientists - last pure scientist was Thatcher, after her we've had a lawyer, a historian, PPE, Geography and now Classics.....
On the difficulty of deciding on a lockdown given currently available information
Prof. Christina Pagel @chrischirp Using deaths or hopsitalisations (which are very lagged indicators) as a marker of Omicron wave's potential severity when cases have risen so rapidly and only reached high levels in the last week is pure abuse of statistics from Heneghan.
Simply put the publicly available data isn't good enough to make any decision regardless of people's viewpoints.
I have no time whatsoever for Pagel. But I probably agree with her last paragraph.
My conclusion would be that you don't take a decision which will go far beyond reasonable impositions of the state on individuals, ruin countless livelihoods and do incalculable long-term damage without rather more evidence than you currently have. Both decisions have an element of risk. Not locking down may be damaging. But locking down will definitely be damaging.
But what if waiting until you know how bad it is means - if it is bad - that either it's now too late to act or you have to act stronger and for longer? I think this is the dilemma we have. Really difficult.
It's a risk. But you can't go doing something as fundamentally illiberal and damaging as a lockdown 'just in case'. You have to have some pretty strong evidence that the reverse will be worse, and we don't have that. My suspicion is that we never will, but that is based upon early indications from South Africa etc. where I concede the context is different. 50% of our population are triple jabbed. 90%+ have antibodies of some sort. The population is changing its behaviour anyway. Deaths are the lowest that they've been since mid-August (they may rise, but they may not). Hospitalisations are within the bounds they have been since summer, and far, far short of what was thought to be acceptable when we opened up.
There is certainly a risk. But we can't go forwards with the threat of lockdown always hanging over us whenever there is a risk, because there will always be a risk.
I have some sympathy for policymakers, because it's much easier to say this as an anonymous bloke on the internet than as the person who will be the target for both real outrage and manufactured outrage and who may lose their job as a result. Though they should be far, far better at questioning the models than they are. I have less sympathy with civil servants and modellers who appear to be trying to cook the books to engineer a lockdown.
I really don't buy this 'cooking the books' thing but otherwise plenty of common ground on what you say here. A legal lockdown must never drift into being considered a routine part of the tool box for alleviating winter pressures on the health service. It should only ever be an 'in extremis' emergency measure used to mitigate the very real risk of it collapsing. I'm satisfied the 2 we've had were done for that reason and were justified. This one, if it happens, which I'm not convinced it will, I reserve judgement on until the mists have cleared somewhat. Long term, this is a question we'll have to address unless we're prepared to run the NHS with lots of surplus capacity, so it's more resilient when stuff like this happens, bit like making banks hold more capital after the 08 crash.
I was in Asda briefly this morning and despite Drakeford's mask mandate many were just not wearing them and some seem to think they are worn below the nose
I really do not understand people who have a disregard for their fellow citizens
There are a lot of very stupid people around.
Buzz broke pelvis last Friday Malcolm, which is why NR 😞
In my gap year, i worked for a company who provided a full stocked kitchen to their employees, it included alcohol.....grear company to work for, shame job was a tad boring.
Based on the weekend reports could be a Cabinet row. Sunak, Truss and Rees Mogg and Kwarteng opposed to more restrictions, only Gove and Javid in favour.
Obviously I am not a cheer leader for the government, and I will hate lockdown on my holiday plans. But to be fair, Doesn’t a lot of this chatter on PB about covid and restrictions, though seems very good to me on the stats and understanding of bugs and drugs, and the needs to balance liberalism in the decisions, actually miss the big elephant in the room about political dangers of calling it wrong?
For example, if there is a surge on NHS capacity in next couple of months, people dying on trolleys in corridors before they treated, same with those in ambulances waiting outside, and the ambulances outside tied up and 999 waiting times in tatters, the government party could forget all about winning any elections, mid term, local, general election for the next fifteen years with their book badly blotted like that?
Surely there is immense long term political danger in making the wrong call this week - that is also on their minds as they weight up all the considerations at 2pm?
Maybe a tad to easy to advise via blog posts or criticise from back benches when don’t have to carry the can for BIG decision makings?
The trouble is that there is only one route to take if all you are concerned about is the politics - and that is lockdown. Running a country on a permanent basis of safety first in any and all situations is a recipe for disaster. Indeed it already has been a disaster. So I am sure you are correct that that is the route they will go. But it doesn't make it right for the country
If the government introduce new restrictions, would the people in No 10 follow them properly (including in spirit) this time?
I am not sure whether they 1) take the may as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb approach and think sod it, 2) really think they are above the law or 3) think they get can't away with it this time so have to follow the rules. I really can't make my mind up.
Comments
Overall I am sick of the debate around it all, too many loud voices with their own agenda on Covid on all positions of the fence. I think it's rather draining right now.
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
That leads me to oppose restrictions - I believe there should be high confidence things would be disastrous in order to justify restrictions. We shouldn't need high confidence things will not be disastrous to justify living our lives normally. The burden lies the other way.
They won't be thanked for a benign economic outcome but they will blamed for excess deaths. It's up to the politicians to decide, and part of that is insisting that they get the complete picture with the whole gamut of known unknowns.
Why model scenarios were nothing very dramatic happens to the NHS seemed to be his view. Maybe I misunderstood - but seemed to be saying ministers only ask for modelling of dramatic stuff as that is when they need a decision.
imho it is utter alice in wonderland.
So the answer seems not a lot.
There has to be a reckoning with both the media and the other scientific groups held to account
We had better debate how we get to these decisions because some think we will go through this every winter now.
It was surprisingly useful in so many ways, and the lack of a grasp of some basic mathematical/scientific principles from others was shocking.
I just spoke to a friend (from university) who expressed much the same view and was now thoroughly distrustful of the modelling because of it.
A fine job he has been doing in last 24 hours thats for sure.
Cambridge was pleasingly busy.
She did originally have plans to expand the venue - and had lots of ideas for it - and was thinking of getting someone to invest with her and she would move into being an overall manager rather than doing all the day to day stuff, having first built up the business and reputation. She has certainly done the latter but it is hard to see who would want to invest in this sector at such a time.
Though in reality it is - if you can get in at the right price - quite a good time to develop the venue. Where we live will soon be in the Lake District National Park, tourism is expanding and there is some government investment in the area. But another year of fighting to keep the place alive with all this uncertainty, no support, price increases etc - no, she's had enough of that. Time to take stock and do what is best for her.
Over a thirds of the citations come from one multi-author study as well "Managing the health effects of climate change"
Ah, smug mode.
They do need to be certain and do not forget I want Boris out of post as much as you do
Double plus smug mode 😀
What's the betting they pick the middle one?
No one knows anything till we get solid UK data on hospitalisation and death. I understand their caution.
"Considering the potential influence of social media on in-water encounters with marine wildlife"
In that list its picking up people like Chantel Pagel. Its also picking up 2 page comment pieces, which are basically just her media stuff, not proper peer reviewed research.
For example, if there is a surge on NHS capacity in next couple of months, people dying on trolleys in corridors before they treated, same with those in ambulances waiting outside, and the ambulances outside tied up and 999 waiting times in tatters, the government party could forget all about winning any elections, mid term, local, general election for the next fifteen years with their book badly blotted like that?
Surely there is immense long term political danger in making the wrong call this week - that is also on their minds as they weight up all the considerations at 2pm?
Maybe a tad to easy to advise via blog posts or criticise from back benches when don’t have to carry the can for BIG decision makings?
Writing as a retired pharmacist who wasn't by any means always concerned with 'supply'.
Cheesy pineapple sticks anyone?
Its a handful.
Overall, it’s an impressive publication record. (Way better than mine!)
Harry Cole!
Have we had a resurrected poster yet?
I hope you check your own research more throughly.
Memo to self: stop listening to radio and simultaneously writing.
As Malmesbury correctly says, Rand made some interesting observations about 20th century society and was also, in my opinion, right on many aspects of the relationship between people and the Government and how it has gone radically wrong over the last 150 years. I very strongly like many of her Libertarian positions.
But to say she was one of the greatest authors of the 20th century is simply wrong. She was a terrible writer who might have had a good story to tell and might have had an important message but who smothered that in some of the worst prose written since WW2. To be a great author you first and foremost have to be a good writer, a good wordsmith. This won't on its own make you a great author but you can't be one without it.
Ayn Rand was a bloody awful writer and would have been wiser to have picked another medium to promote her message and philosophy.
That's sad.
This government absolutely should go, but the idea that work and wine are incompatible is absurd.
Honestly they're making this 10 times worse than it needs to be
Some people in this country are far too puritan.
We drink at the office after work is completed on one day a week, we'd never pop the wine open and have a full on meeting
I am not sure whether they 1) take the may as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb approach and think sod it, 2) really think they are above the law or 3) think they get can't away with it this time so have to follow the rules. I really can't make my mind up.