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What should really worry Tories: anti-CON tactical voting – politicalbetting.com
What should really worry Tories: anti-CON tactical voting – politicalbetting.com
The above chart has been created to show two very big trends that we can now map from the two by-elections that we have seen this December. The first is that Tory voters are much more ready to switch to the LDs when Davey’s party is in the ascendency and the second is that both LAB and LD supporters are ready to vote tactically when the perceived situation in their seats demands it.
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Trevor Philips this morning
https://youtu.be/B4gyDyZVlGg
I have those people in my friendship group - and in my family
They chortle away about “extra Ocado deliveries of Prosecco”, and building a fucking pizza oven in the garden for their sneaky parties, then they say “lockdown isn’t all bad” as if they’ve really considered how it impacts the other 50%+ of the country
PB is also bad for this. It skews to the old, affluent and introverted. Lockdown is PERFECT for them. So they chortle away
I wonder this time if young people will simply rebel. I would if I was 21 or 24. If you’re that age you’re seeing some of the greatest, most important years of your life being trashed, one after another. Instead of giddy young life you get a jail sentence.
Fuck that shit
No party can take office without appealing to a broad spectrum of voters. Doing the things that only your supporters like is how you get booted from office - you have to compromise enough to win over the support from elsewhere and in different seats.
The anti-Tory vote is significant at the moment because the party and the government are so fucking offensive to most normal's sense of basic right and wrong. That could all change if they replace Peppa with someone who is a decent politician, but the danger is that the longer he goes on the more people decide that they have to go regardless of who eventually replaces him.
But we've been told than anti-Conservative tactical voting took place in 2010 and 2015 and 2017 and 2019.
They all had lockdown breaking "gatherings" last winter as well of their social circles to which, happily, my wife and I were never invited. They're very much in favour of lockdowns, one of them has his wife as his secretary in his business, she was furloughed for the whole time. He doesn't need the money, they live in a £4m house in Barnet. Then my parents wonder why my sister and I don't get along with our extended family lol.
Week 50 Hospitalisations (projected): 8700 (+21% a fall of 100 peeps from yesterday's projection)
Week 50 Deaths (projected): 400 (+81% No change in prediction)
Patients Ventilated: 2.6%
Patients Oxygenated: 14.5%
At the final stages, they stopped trying to appeal to anyone other than their narrow sect and instead called anyone else stupid, thick or racist.
And anyway you could go beyond a system of financial penalties by balancing it with financial rewards for getting a first or second vaccine and later on a booster, with the penalties helping fund the incentives.
The young should ignore every restriction.
Its what the smug haves do.
Not to mention Boris and his gang.
I think Labour minority government, and neither SNP nor LD would bring it down in the short term, though possibly would vote down specific bills. Labour wouldn't therefore table anything too controversial.
Meanwhile the 9 year old kids and the bewildered teens locked in their high rise flats for months, down the road, just listen to this bizarre applause of a grotesque social torment
I will add one thing. Lockdown 3 was so shit by the end some of the most hardened and self-satisfied of The Chortlers were showing the strain
A big garden is great, it cannot replace the world. Not forever
If we do get a long lockdown, this time could be vastly harder in multiple unexpected ways
I simply don't see this parade of posters urging tighter restrictions.
Very much the opposite in fact.
Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that real infections to cases number for Omicron is 5x. That doesn't mean 90k x 5 at the moment (as still plenty of Delta).
And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.
We had an early Yule dinner party for 12 friends and relatives last night. We will have another tonight for a different set of friends. I will be paying no attention to whatever the Government says on this going forward.
Fuck em.
PB is not pro lockdown at all, Leon is just making things up, surprise surprise
You really must stop bringing facts in here.
None of them have to go to an hourly-paid public-facing job, where meeting hundreds of people a day is a pre-requisite for the rent being paid at the end of the month. None of them run precarious small businesses, where remaining open appears to be even worse news for them than being ordered closed. None of them live an an overcrowded apartment with a small window for light and fresh air, next to a park that’s been closed.
After a year of 125m vaccinations and maybe 15m acquired immunities allowing a lockdown would likely make them a permanent winter feature.
"Breakdown of foreign tourists in France in 2018, by country of residence". UK = 14.8%
https://www.statista.com/statistics/765912/distribution-tourists-foreign-in-la-france-by-zoned-of-residence/
French Government says 8% overall number on its website:
France has been the world’s leading tourist destination for more than 30 years. In 2019, 90 million international tourists visited France to discover our rich natural and architectural heritage and to enjoy our world-renowned hospitality and way of life. In France, tourism accounts for 8% of GDP. This is thanks to the millions of people, passionate about their jobs and their country, who uphold its excellent reputation day after day.
https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/french-foreign-policy/tourism/
I'll agree that that is a little ambiguous about domestic / international.
According to this Reuters piece about the impact on Skiing, the UK accounts for 15% of French skiing customers overall (not just international). As the French Tourism Minister put it. However you slice it, it is a very major impact:
Tourism minister Jean-Baptiste Lemoyne said on BFM TV that British tourists accounted for about 15% of French ski resort customers overall, but the percentage was much higher in some resorts such as Val d'Isere, Courchevel and Meribel.
"Last year the government has provided 7 billion euros ($7.9 billion) of support for the sector and we will continue to stand by the industry," Lemoyne said, without specifying what measures could be implemented.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-support-ski-resorts-hit-by-british-tourists-ban-2021-12-18/
My thoughts were previously we used to talk about ~x3 multiplier....but now lots of people are LFT testing left, right and centre, which you would think would be picking up lots more of the previously undiscovered asymptomatic cases.
Be interesting to know why the x5 number given just how much testing we do now and are being asked to do. Do they think there is a lot more asymptomatic cases with Omicron or are they applying a wrong assumption about case / infections. I don't know.
If Starmer was in charge we'd be lucky to have 10m boosters given by now.
It just struck me as very large multiplier. But Trevor Philips didn't ask Javid for really any more information about it.
If Omicron is that infectious then the hospital numbers should be soaring unless it is much milder.
If Omicron is that infectious then we will likely run out of anti-vaxxers very fast.
I expect a lot of people will just abstain.
My own very personal view is that it is a toxic combination of extreme laziness combined with extreme arrogance. Being arrogant is not necessarily a bad thing for a politician if they have put in the work to back up their views and actions. If they have not put in that work - and Johnson clearly does not do that sort of work at all - then it is usually disastrous. Just as we have seen for the last year or more (vaccines excepted).
It won’t be long before we have a better idea of how bad this will be. As @Foxy says it’s likely to be quick, whatever happens.
If they're saying with Omicron it is 5x then by definition the extra cases must be mostly asymptomatic or very mild symptoms.
Javid might well has misspoken again and perhaps was referring to when you see a number for a day, its now 5x today, because testing is backward looking. Again he was a little unclear in his statement, but I didn't take it as that. I took it as 5x infections to the case number.
What proportion of positive LFTs never get reported - do we have any idea of that ?
And also there’s a small lag in reporting PCR results - with a variant that doubled every 2-3 days, that might make a large difference.
This is the end of SAGE isn't it?
They are done with this admittance.
A Starmer government would have put less or no pressure on the scientists to approve extra vaccinations and so started boosters later, would have left the roll-out to the NHS to dawdle along at and would not have made a big push when Omicron emerged.
Come on Tory MPs tell them to get fucked, tell the scientists with their lockdown fascism to fuck off. There's no other way to do it.
Are they telling Javid, this is actually pretty positive, its whipping through huge numbers of people and actually it really isn't seriously affecting many, so much so, 100ks each day don't even know they have it.
Or are they telling, this is far far worse than that headline figure minister, as there are actually many many 100ks of cases not recorded and 1% of those will be heading to hospital....
“But new hospitalizations and deaths are averaging well below their spring 2020 peak and even where they were this time last year, during a winter wave that came as vaccinations were just beginning, city data shows.
“Mount Sinai Health System emergency rooms had seen about 20% more patients – with all conditions – in recent days, according to Dr Eric Legome, who oversees two of the network’s seven ERs. But at least so far, he said, “We’re seeing a lot more treat-and-release” coronavirus patients than in earlier waves.
“Many are looking for tests, help with mild or moderate symptoms, or monoclonal antibody treatment, but very few require oxygen or a hospital stay, said Legome.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/19/new-york-22000-new-covid-cases-omicron-testing-hospitals-rockettes-snl
To hell with the stupid models. Real life says This isn’t so bad. If they still lock us down, despite the hard evidence, I will personally REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED til he weeps
A zoom call does not replace human interaction. An hour's socially distanced exercise does not replace an evening with your mates in the pub. A phone call cannot replace a visit to a loved one in a care home. An online exercise class is no substitute for a PT session or a group class at your gym.
At some point, the loneliness of solitude becomes unbearable.
That was the reality of the last lockdown for me. Some people may love it. Good for them. Let them lock down if that's their choice. I've had my jabs and my booster. I want, no, I need to get on with my life.
Enough is enough. No more lockdowns. If covid is endemic, we're going to have to learn how to live with it. We can't (I certainly can't) keep going on like this.
However some ‘liberalism’ at the top of the Home Office would a) be a good thing and b) make a nice change!
Do any of the academics screaming for lockdown now and for weeks on end, live on their own?
A period of confidence and supply is not unrealistic.
Unlike BoZo and chums.
His choice. If he locks down, he knows what comes next
And over 20m during the last six months.
During which I didn't notice the NHS collapsing.
They are twisting the available data into a lockdown so they we are all locked away. It's what fascists do, they twist the facts to suit their agenda rather than follow what the evidence says.
So where do these communities go. The greens and Lib Dem parties have little regard or time for them. Effectively they have no advocates just parties who want their votes and mislead and lie to them. My worry is something unpleasant fills the void..