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What should really worry Tories: anti-CON tactical voting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageWhat should really worry Tories: anti-CON tactical voting – politicalbetting.com

The above chart has been created to show two very big trends that we can now map from the two by-elections that we have seen this December. The first is that Tory voters are much more ready to switch to the LDs when Davey’s party is in the ascendency and the second is that both LAB and LD supporters are ready to vote tactically when the perceived situation in their seats demands it.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    First as Starmer will be at the next election
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,473
    edited December 2021
    First? No, as it turns out.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    A distant third, like the Lib Dems SNP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    In return for which Davey would no doubt hope to be Deputy PM to a PM Starmer if he needed LD support in a hung parliament to form a government
  • Thr crap perform of the modellers is now the governments fault...

    Trevor Philips this morning
    https://youtu.be/B4gyDyZVlGg
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    HYUFD said:

    In return for which Davey would no doubt hope to be Deputy PM to a PM Starmer if he needed LD support in a hung parliament to form a government

    Doubt it. Lib Dems have learnt their lesson re. coalitions
    It will be a labour minority government with tacit support from the Lib Dems and SNP as appropriate.
  • 'While you're digesting my vaccine kills message, could I interest you in some light anti-popery?'




  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    edited December 2021
    Davey would have more sense than Clegg! FCO or CoE I suggest, although Home Office would give scope to make a real difference!
  • An interesting thread. What HYUFD clearly doesn't get is that is his clown car party fall back to their core vote, they not only lose but they stay out of power.

    No party can take office without appealing to a broad spectrum of voters. Doing the things that only your supporters like is how you get booted from office - you have to compromise enough to win over the support from elsewhere and in different seats.

    The anti-Tory vote is significant at the moment because the party and the government are so fucking offensive to most normal's sense of basic right and wrong. That could all change if they replace Peppa with someone who is a decent politician, but the danger is that the longer he goes on the more people decide that they have to go regardless of who eventually replaces him.
  • Chesham and Amersham should have been included in the bar chart too!
  • Well its possible.

    But we've been told than anti-Conservative tactical voting took place in 2010 and 2015 and 2017 and 2019.
  • 'While you're digesting my vaccine kills message, could I interest you in some light anti-popery?'




    They not fans of http up there?
    This site is so nerdy, I love it
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Leon said:

    Fpt for max


    I have those people in my friendship group - and in my family

    They chortle away about “extra Ocado deliveries of Prosecco”, and building a fucking pizza oven in the garden for their sneaky parties, then they say “lockdown isn’t all bad” as if they’ve really considered how it impacts the other 50%+ of the country

    PB is also bad for this. It skews to the old, affluent and introverted. Lockdown is PERFECT for them. So they chortle away

    I wonder this time if young people will simply rebel. I would if I was 21 or 24. If you’re that age you’re seeing some of the greatest, most important years of your life being trashed, one after another. Instead of giddy young life you get a jail sentence.

    Fuck that shit

    Yeah I see that as well within my family circle, especially among my older cousins who are all very wealthy and live in big detached houses and have kids under 5 so not of school age.

    They all had lockdown breaking "gatherings" last winter as well of their social circles to which, happily, my wife and I were never invited. They're very much in favour of lockdowns, one of them has his wife as his secretary in his business, she was furloughed for the whole time. He doesn't need the money, they live in a £4m house in Barnet. Then my parents wonder why my sister and I don't get along with our extended family lol.
  • Leon said:

    Fpt for max


    I have those people in my friendship group - and in my family

    They chortle away about “extra Ocado deliveries of Prosecco”, and building a fucking pizza oven in the garden for their sneaky parties, then they say “lockdown isn’t all bad” as if they’ve really considered how it impacts the other 50%+ of the country

    PB is also bad for this. It skews to the old, affluent and introverted. Lockdown is PERFECT for them. So they chortle away

    I wonder this time if young people will simply rebel. I would if I was 21 or 24. If you’re that age you’re seeing some of the greatest, most important years of your life being trashed, one after another. Instead of giddy young life you get a jail sentence.

    Fuck that shit

    Trying to remember the last time that a generation's greatest, most important years were trashed, one after another.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866
    Alistair SA Projections update (it looks like data has updated but may be a partial update - I will check back later today)

    Week 50 Hospitalisations (projected): 8700 (+21% a fall of 100 peeps from yesterday's projection)
    Week 50 Deaths (projected): 400 (+81% No change in prediction)

    Patients Ventilated: 2.6%
    Patients Oxygenated: 14.5%
  • The fall of the Johnson Party is like the fall of the Corbyn Party.

    At the final stages, they stopped trying to appeal to anyone other than their narrow sect and instead called anyone else stupid, thick or racist.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    edited December 2021
    Lockdown Javid is today providing a really compelling argument. An argument for him never seeing the front bench again. I was warned by multiple people that worked for him in his banking days that he was a polite blagger but with little to no understanding of his brief. I can see what they mean.
  • FPT
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD out of interest, what level of restrictions would you accept?

    Vaxports maybe but not another lockdown
    What about rule of 6?
    No
    So you support a measure that has no impact on spread and the government forces people to present their paper, but not something that probably does have some and the government doesn't actually enforce it, its based on trust.
    Spread is largely irrelevant, getting more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters is more important in avoiding hospitalisations rise
    I think it rather debatable at this point how much vax passports will convince antivaxxers to get jabbed.
    But surely the benefit of vax passports is that the most vulnerable to hospitalisation can have reduced access to areas that they are likely to catch the virus thus slowing it down amongst those most likely to overwhelm the health care system ?
    Indeed, Vaxports for nightclubs, cafes, restraurants, bars, gyms, theatres, cinemas, concerts, sporting events etc effectively mean a lockdown for the unvaccinated only which is the fairest way. No mandatory vaccination but you have to accept another lockdown if you refuse to get jabbed and get your booster
    It doesn't though. They just have to show a negative LFT from the past 48hrs... which we already know people can and do cheat.

    The "state injectable" idiots will just not do the tests properly / share around negative ones from other people.

    LFT rely on people being good faith actors, which those who have already done their civic duty and got vaccinated are....Piers Corbyn isn't.
    I said vaxports not LFTs, if necessary vaxports only accepted for admission to large events and bars and cinemas and restaurants etc not even negative LFTs enough if you are unvaccinated
    LFTs are the issue here. If you’re going to restrict areas to either those with vaccines or tests, then make them PCR tests administered at private clinics. No at-home tests nor LFTs. That way, there’s an actual cost associated with being unvaccinated.
    That is certainly not levelling up. A far cheaper half way point would be to require a photo of the free LFT test rather than just the serial number.
    It’s not supposed to be levelling up, it’s supposed to be making life a total pain in the arse if you’re not vaccinated.

    In my part of the world, if you’re a government worker, or work in a public-facing job such as retail or hospitality, you have to have a PCR test at your own expense every 72 hours if you’re willingly unvaccinated.
    Now that's an idea with possible mileage. That might just tip the people who aren't getting vaccines over the edge without forcing them to or denying them treatment. Which had seemed the alternatives up to now.
    It’s a good idea in theory, but not sure (in the UK) it would survive the first Guardian editorial calling it racist, quickly picked up by footballers and Labour MPs for the areas of low vaccine take up.
    Effective measures to address the disproportionately low vaccine take up and disproportionately high Covid death rate amongst ethnic minorities would be anything but racist. You'll find most on the left in support of such measures, just as we are in favour of addressing health inequalities in general.

    And anyway you could go beyond a system of financial penalties by balancing it with financial rewards for getting a first or second vaccine and later on a booster, with the penalties helping fund the incentives.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    'While you're digesting my vaccine kills message, could I interest you in some light anti-popery?'




    They not fans of http up there?
    I think they use the same version of Messenger that William of Orange employed.
  • Carnyx said:

    'While you're digesting my vaccine kills message, could I interest you in some light anti-popery?'




    They not fans of http up there?
    I think they use the same version of Messenger that William of Orange employed.
    Carrier pigeon?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    HYUFD said:

    In return for which Davey would no doubt hope to be Deputy PM to a PM Starmer if he needed LD support in a hung parliament to form a government

    Confidence and Supply at most, though even that didn't save the DUP in 2019.

    I think Labour minority government, and neither SNP nor LD would bring it down in the short term, though possibly would vote down specific bills. Labour wouldn't therefore table anything too controversial.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    Carnyx said:

    'While you're digesting my vaccine kills message, could I interest you in some light anti-popery?'




    They not fans of http up there?
    I think they use the same version of Messenger that William of Orange employed.
    Carrier pigeon?
    On horseback, I was thinking. No idea if pigeons were used then ...
  • Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In return for which Davey would no doubt hope to be Deputy PM to a PM Starmer if he needed LD support in a hung parliament to form a government

    Confidence and Supply at most, though even that didn't save the DUP in 2019.

    I think Labour minority government, and neither SNP nor LD would bring it down in the short term, though possibly would vote down specific bills. Labour wouldn't therefore table anything too controversial.

    Sounds like a competent, centre-ground administration to me. Let's have at it
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    Leon said:

    Fpt for max


    I have those people in my friendship group - and in my family

    They chortle away about “extra Ocado deliveries of Prosecco”, and building a fucking pizza oven in the garden for their sneaky parties, then they say “lockdown isn’t all bad” as if they’ve really considered how it impacts the other 50%+ of the country

    PB is also bad for this. It skews to the old, affluent and introverted. Lockdown is PERFECT for them. So they chortle away

    I wonder this time if young people will simply rebel. I would if I was 21 or 24. If you’re that age you’re seeing some of the greatest, most important years of your life being trashed, one after another. Instead of giddy young life you get a jail sentence.

    Fuck that shit

    Indeed.

    The young should ignore every restriction.

    Its what the smug haves do.

    Not to mention Boris and his gang.
    Boris and his gang are the very definition of smug haves.
  • English cricketers doing horrendously, thank god spurs aren't pla.... oh no.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for max


    I have those people in my friendship group - and in my family

    They chortle away about “extra Ocado deliveries of Prosecco”, and building a fucking pizza oven in the garden for their sneaky parties, then they say “lockdown isn’t all bad” as if they’ve really considered how it impacts the other 50%+ of the country

    PB is also bad for this. It skews to the old, affluent and introverted. Lockdown is PERFECT for them. So they chortle away

    I wonder this time if young people will simply rebel. I would if I was 21 or 24. If you’re that age you’re seeing some of the greatest, most important years of your life being trashed, one after another. Instead of giddy young life you get a jail sentence.

    Fuck that shit

    Yeah I see that as well within my family circle, especially among my older cousins who are all very wealthy and live in big detached houses and have kids under 5 so not of school age.

    They all had lockdown breaking "gatherings" last winter as well of their social circles to which, happily, my wife and I were never invited. They're very much in favour of lockdowns, one of them has his wife as his secretary in his business, she was furloughed for the whole time. He doesn't need the money, they live in a £4m house in Barnet. Then my parents wonder why my sister and I don't get along with our extended family lol.
    It’s hard not to slap them when they simultaneously smirk at their good fortune AND preach about the importance of lockdown, “we do this to protect the NHS”, then they go out into their fucking enormous gardens to clap for carers

    Meanwhile the 9 year old kids and the bewildered teens locked in their high rise flats for months, down the road, just listen to this bizarre applause of a grotesque social torment

    I will add one thing. Lockdown 3 was so shit by the end some of the most hardened and self-satisfied of The Chortlers were showing the strain

    A big garden is great, it cannot replace the world. Not forever

    If we do get a long lockdown, this time could be vastly harder in multiple unexpected ways
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Leon said:

    Fpt for max


    I have those people in my friendship group - and in my family

    They chortle away about “extra Ocado deliveries of Prosecco”, and building a fucking pizza oven in the garden for their sneaky parties, then they say “lockdown isn’t all bad” as if they’ve really considered how it impacts the other 50%+ of the country

    PB is also bad for this. It skews to the old, affluent and introverted. Lockdown is PERFECT for them. So they chortle away

    I wonder this time if young people will simply rebel. I would if I was 21 or 24. If you’re that age you’re seeing some of the greatest, most important years of your life being trashed, one after another. Instead of giddy young life you get a jail sentence.

    Fuck that shit

    If anything PB skews quite anti-lockdown.
    I simply don't see this parade of posters urging tighter restrictions.
    Very much the opposite in fact.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for max


    I have those people in my friendship group - and in my family

    They chortle away about “extra Ocado deliveries of Prosecco”, and building a fucking pizza oven in the garden for their sneaky parties, then they say “lockdown isn’t all bad” as if they’ve really considered how it impacts the other 50%+ of the country

    PB is also bad for this. It skews to the old, affluent and introverted. Lockdown is PERFECT for them. So they chortle away

    I wonder this time if young people will simply rebel. I would if I was 21 or 24. If you’re that age you’re seeing some of the greatest, most important years of your life being trashed, one after another. Instead of giddy young life you get a jail sentence.

    Fuck that shit

    If anything PB skews quite anti-lockdown.
    I simply don't see this parade of posters urging tighter restrictions.
    Very much the opposite in fact.
    Maybe I just notice them more because they annoy me more
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that real infections to cases number for Omicron is 5x. That doesn't mean 90k x 5 at the moment (as still plenty of Delta).

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.
  • Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for max


    I have those people in my friendship group - and in my family

    They chortle away about “extra Ocado deliveries of Prosecco”, and building a fucking pizza oven in the garden for their sneaky parties, then they say “lockdown isn’t all bad” as if they’ve really considered how it impacts the other 50%+ of the country

    PB is also bad for this. It skews to the old, affluent and introverted. Lockdown is PERFECT for them. So they chortle away

    I wonder this time if young people will simply rebel. I would if I was 21 or 24. If you’re that age you’re seeing some of the greatest, most important years of your life being trashed, one after another. Instead of giddy young life you get a jail sentence.

    Fuck that shit

    If anything PB skews quite anti-lockdown.
    I simply don't see this parade of posters urging tighter restrictions.
    Very much the opposite in fact.
    Maybe I just notice them more because they annoy me more
    Maybe it's time to log off for a while, then
  • Leon said:

    Fpt for max


    I have those people in my friendship group - and in my family

    They chortle away about “extra Ocado deliveries of Prosecco”, and building a fucking pizza oven in the garden for their sneaky parties, then they say “lockdown isn’t all bad” as if they’ve really considered how it impacts the other 50%+ of the country

    PB is also bad for this. It skews to the old, affluent and introverted. Lockdown is PERFECT for them. So they chortle away

    I wonder this time if young people will simply rebel. I would if I was 21 or 24. If you’re that age you’re seeing some of the greatest, most important years of your life being trashed, one after another. Instead of giddy young life you get a jail sentence.

    Fuck that shit

    Indeed.

    The young should ignore every restriction.

    Its what the smug haves do.

    Not to mention Boris and his gang.
    Everyone should ignore lockdown unless they feel in themselves that they are at risk or still worried about the virus. This should be an entirely personal choice. The Government have lost all moral and practical right to impose lockdowns given both their own attitude to them and the new normal of vaccines and endemic covid.

    We had an early Yule dinner party for 12 friends and relatives last night. We will have another tonight for a different set of friends. I will be paying no attention to whatever the Government says on this going forward.

    Fuck em.
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In return for which Davey would no doubt hope to be Deputy PM to a PM Starmer if he needed LD support in a hung parliament to form a government

    Confidence and Supply at most, though even that didn't save the DUP in 2019.

    I think Labour minority government, and neither SNP nor LD would bring it down in the short term, though possibly would vote down specific bills. Labour wouldn't therefore table anything too controversial.

    Sounds like a competent, centre-ground administration to me. Let's have at it
    Are you serious. What do labour offer ? What do labour offer communities in towns, former red wall communities. They are a metropolitan big city based party. They are a party who sub contract policies to lobby groups like Stonewall and Greenpeace. They have, as of now, nothing to offer working class communities in the towns up and down the country. They need to come up with something. Not culture war crap but jobs, prospects, improving and levelling up.
  • The only people that seem to be relatively pro-lockdown are me and a couple of others and I say this despite it probably destroying my mental health.

    PB is not pro lockdown at all, Leon is just making things up, surprise surprise
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that rather than rough 3x infections to cases, that Omicron is 5-6x.

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.

    Can you please clarify the second sentence? Must be me, but I can't work it out - do you mean that 1/5 or 1/6 of infections produce cases of symptoms or what?
  • Well its possible.

    But we've been told than anti-Conservative tactical voting took place in 2010 and 2015 and 2017 and 2019.

    2015, 2017 and 2019 were two party contests in the end.
  • Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In return for which Davey would no doubt hope to be Deputy PM to a PM Starmer if he needed LD support in a hung parliament to form a government

    Confidence and Supply at most, though even that didn't save the DUP in 2019.

    I think Labour minority government, and neither SNP nor LD would bring it down in the short term, though possibly would vote down specific bills. Labour wouldn't therefore table anything too controversial.

    Sounds like a competent, centre-ground administration to me. Let's have at it
    Are you serious. What do labour offer ? What do labour offer communities in towns, former red wall communities. They are a metropolitan big city based party. They are a party who sub contract policies to lobby groups like Stonewall and Greenpeace. They have, as of now, nothing to offer working class communities in the towns up and down the country. They need to come up with something. Not culture war crap but jobs, prospects, improving and levelling up.
    They offer a level of competence somewhere above 'absolutely bloody useless'. For me that is enough right now. I literally cannot think of any way they could be worse than the current shambles.
  • Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In return for which Davey would no doubt hope to be Deputy PM to a PM Starmer if he needed LD support in a hung parliament to form a government

    Confidence and Supply at most, though even that didn't save the DUP in 2019.

    I think Labour minority government, and neither SNP nor LD would bring it down in the short term, though possibly would vote down specific bills. Labour wouldn't therefore table anything too controversial.

    Sounds like a competent, centre-ground administration to me. Let's have at it
    Are you serious. What do labour offer ? What do labour offer communities in towns, former red wall communities. They are a metropolitan big city based party. They are a party who sub contract policies to lobby groups like Stonewall and Greenpeace. They have, as of now, nothing to offer working class communities in the towns up and down the country. They need to come up with something. Not culture war crap but jobs, prospects, improving and levelling up.
    They offer a level of competence somewhere above 'absolutely bloody useless'. For me that is enough right now. I literally cannot think of any way they could be worse than the current shambles.
    Hey Richard, I hope you are keeping well.

    You really must stop bringing facts in here.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    Fpt for max


    I have those people in my friendship group - and in my family

    They chortle away about “extra Ocado deliveries of Prosecco”, and building a fucking pizza oven in the garden for their sneaky parties, then they say “lockdown isn’t all bad” as if they’ve really considered how it impacts the other 50%+ of the country

    PB is also bad for this. It skews to the old, affluent and introverted. Lockdown is PERFECT for them. So they chortle away

    I wonder this time if young people will simply rebel. I would if I was 21 or 24. If you’re that age you’re seeing some of the greatest, most important years of your life being trashed, one after another. Instead of giddy young life you get a jail sentence.

    Fuck that shit

    You raise a good point (albeit in more colourful language than I would use), that the visit majority of the people involved in the public discussion around the pandemic, have secure middle-class jobs and live in houses with gardens.

    None of them have to go to an hourly-paid public-facing job, where meeting hundreds of people a day is a pre-requisite for the rent being paid at the end of the month. None of them run precarious small businesses, where remaining open appears to be even worse news for them than being ordered closed. None of them live an an overcrowded apartment with a small window for light and fresh air, next to a park that’s been closed.
  • Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for max


    I have those people in my friendship group - and in my family

    They chortle away about “extra Ocado deliveries of Prosecco”, and building a fucking pizza oven in the garden for their sneaky parties, then they say “lockdown isn’t all bad” as if they’ve really considered how it impacts the other 50%+ of the country

    PB is also bad for this. It skews to the old, affluent and introverted. Lockdown is PERFECT for them. So they chortle away

    I wonder this time if young people will simply rebel. I would if I was 21 or 24. If you’re that age you’re seeing some of the greatest, most important years of your life being trashed, one after another. Instead of giddy young life you get a jail sentence.

    Fuck that shit

    Yeah I see that as well within my family circle, especially among my older cousins who are all very wealthy and live in big detached houses and have kids under 5 so not of school age.

    They all had lockdown breaking "gatherings" last winter as well of their social circles to which, happily, my wife and I were never invited. They're very much in favour of lockdowns, one of them has his wife as his secretary in his business, she was furloughed for the whole time. He doesn't need the money, they live in a £4m house in Barnet. Then my parents wonder why my sister and I don't get along with our extended family lol.
    It’s hard not to slap them when they simultaneously smirk at their good fortune AND preach about the importance of lockdown, “we do this to protect the NHS”, then they go out into their fucking enormous gardens to clap for carers

    Meanwhile the 9 year old kids and the bewildered teens locked in their high rise flats for months, down the road, just listen to this bizarre applause of a grotesque social torment

    I will add one thing. Lockdown 3 was so shit by the end some of the most hardened and self-satisfied of The Chortlers were showing the strain

    A big garden is great, it cannot replace the world. Not forever

    If we do get a long lockdown, this time could be vastly harder in multiple unexpected ways
    The promise of vaccinations a year ago brought hope.

    After a year of 125m vaccinations and maybe 15m acquired immunities allowing a lockdown would likely make them a permanent winter feature.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    FPT: for @kamski
    kamski said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:
    In December?
    No it's much prettier than that at the moment with the low sun but it's glorious sunshine and if it wasn't for your comrades in the Tory Party the South of France or Venice or Forence or Palma would be as accessible as Newcastle or Bristol or Aberdeen or even Cumbria.
    If it wasn't for Macron it would still be easily accessible for travellers who were vaccinated and had had negative tests
    Question for Macron is whether it was worth him breaking the legs of France's winter tourism economy for.

    Tourism is 9% of France's economy.
    UK is 15% of France's Tourism.
    According to wiki international tourism is 3% of French economy, and I doubt UK is 15% of French international tourism, though no doubt important to some winter resorts.
    My links:

    "Breakdown of foreign tourists in France in 2018, by country of ​​residence". UK = 14.8%

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/765912/distribution-tourists-foreign-in-la-france-by-zoned-of-residence/

    French Government says 8% overall number on its website:

    France has been the world’s leading tourist destination for more than 30 years. In 2019, 90 million international tourists visited France to discover our rich natural and architectural heritage and to enjoy our world-renowned hospitality and way of life. In France, tourism accounts for 8% of GDP. This is thanks to the millions of people, passionate about their jobs and their country, who uphold its excellent reputation day after day.

    https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/french-foreign-policy/tourism/

    I'll agree that that is a little ambiguous about domestic / international.

    According to this Reuters piece about the impact on Skiing, the UK accounts for 15% of French skiing customers overall (not just international). As the French Tourism Minister put it. However you slice it, it is a very major impact:

    Tourism minister Jean-Baptiste Lemoyne said on BFM TV that British tourists accounted for about 15% of French ski resort customers overall, but the percentage was much higher in some resorts such as Val d'Isere, Courchevel and Meribel.

    "Last year the government has provided 7 billion euros ($7.9 billion) of support for the sector and we will continue to stand by the industry," Lemoyne said, without specifying what measures could be implemented.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-support-ski-resorts-hit-by-british-tourists-ban-2021-12-18/

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Carnyx said:

    Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that rather than rough 3x infections to cases, that Omicron is 5-6x.

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.

    Can you please clarify the second sentence? Must be me, but I can't work it out - do you mean that 1/5 or 1/6 of infections produce cases of symptoms or what?
    Not quite. It means a combination of asymptomatic and those that get symptoms and don't take tests for whatever reason.

    My thoughts were previously we used to talk about ~x3 multiplier....but now lots of people are LFT testing left, right and centre, which you would think would be picking up lots more of the previously undiscovered asymptomatic cases.

    Be interesting to know why the x5 number given just how much testing we do now and are being asked to do. Do they think there is a lot more asymptomatic cases with Omicron or are they applying a wrong assumption about case / infections. I don't know.
  • Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In return for which Davey would no doubt hope to be Deputy PM to a PM Starmer if he needed LD support in a hung parliament to form a government

    Confidence and Supply at most, though even that didn't save the DUP in 2019.

    I think Labour minority government, and neither SNP nor LD would bring it down in the short term, though possibly would vote down specific bills. Labour wouldn't therefore table anything too controversial.

    Sounds like a competent, centre-ground administration to me. Let's have at it
    Are you serious. What do labour offer ? What do labour offer communities in towns, former red wall communities. They are a metropolitan big city based party. They are a party who sub contract policies to lobby groups like Stonewall and Greenpeace. They have, as of now, nothing to offer working class communities in the towns up and down the country. They need to come up with something. Not culture war crap but jobs, prospects, improving and levelling up.
    They offer a level of competence somewhere above 'absolutely bloody useless'. For me that is enough right now. I literally cannot think of any way they could be worse than the current shambles.
    In some ways perhaps but in other ways no.

    If Starmer was in charge we'd be lucky to have 10m boosters given by now.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    Carnyx said:

    Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that rather than rough 3x infections to cases, that Omicron is 5-6x.

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.

    Can you please clarify the second sentence? Must be me, but I can't work it out - do you mean that 1/5 or 1/6 of infections produce cases of symptoms or what?
    Not quite. It means a combination of asymptomatic and those that don't take tests for whatever reason.

    My thoughts were previously we used to talk about ~x3 multiplier....but now lots of people are LFT testing left, right and centre, which you would think would be picking up lots more of the previously undiscovered asymptomatic cases.
    Ah, thanks, so the reported cases in the official stats really represent 5 or 6 times as many cases in the real world (both er asymptomatic and not reported).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    A good lead. And another reason the Tories will wait for the new boundaries, which tend to muddy the water as far as efficient tactical voting is concerned.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that rather than rough 3x infections to cases, that Omicron is 5-6x.

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.

    Can you please clarify the second sentence? Must be me, but I can't work it out - do you mean that 1/5 or 1/6 of infections produce cases of symptoms or what?
    Not quite. It means a combination of asymptomatic and those that don't take tests for whatever reason.

    My thoughts were previously we used to talk about ~x3 multiplier....but now lots of people are LFT testing left, right and centre, which you would think would be picking up lots more of the previously undiscovered asymptomatic cases.
    Ah, thanks, so the reported cases in the official stats really represent 5 or 6 times as many cases in the real world (both er asymptomatic and not reported).
    Yes. Which I thought sounded incredibly high given we now do 1.5 million tests a day. And if it is correct, this wave won't take long to get through everybody.

    It just struck me as very large multiplier. But Trevor Philips didn't ask Javid for really any more information about it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Which is what @Alistair is tracking in the SA stats. It seems like Omicron presents less need got mechanical ventilation and need of the ICU. If our own research is finding the same then those forecasts of the NHS collapsing need to be significantly revised.
  • Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that real infections to cases number for Omicron is 5x. That doesn't mean 90k x 5 at the moment (as still plenty of Delta).

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.

    If Omicron is that infectious then restrictions will not work.

    If Omicron is that infectious then the hospital numbers should be soaring unless it is much milder.

    If Omicron is that infectious then we will likely run out of anti-vaxxers very fast.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321

    'While you're digesting my vaccine kills message, could I interest you in some light anti-popery?'




    They not fans of http up there?
    It's meant to be FPT; there must be something painted on the building out of shot to the left?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,332
    .

    Davey would have more sense than Clegg! FCO or CoE I suggest, although Home Office would give scope to make a real difference!

    If the has any sense he will be considering what his party wants in terms of policy rather than particular ministerial baubles.
  • Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In return for which Davey would no doubt hope to be Deputy PM to a PM Starmer if he needed LD support in a hung parliament to form a government

    Confidence and Supply at most, though even that didn't save the DUP in 2019.

    I think Labour minority government, and neither SNP nor LD would bring it down in the short term, though possibly would vote down specific bills. Labour wouldn't therefore table anything too controversial.

    Sounds like a competent, centre-ground administration to me. Let's have at it
    Are you serious. What do labour offer ? What do labour offer communities in towns, former red wall communities. They are a metropolitan big city based party. They are a party who sub contract policies to lobby groups like Stonewall and Greenpeace. They have, as of now, nothing to offer working class communities in the towns up and down the country. They need to come up with something. Not culture war crap but jobs, prospects, improving and levelling up.
    They offer a level of competence somewhere above 'absolutely bloody useless'. For me that is enough right now. I literally cannot think of any way they could be worse than the current shambles.
    Hey Richard, I hope you are keeping well.

    You really must stop bringing facts in here.
    Good thanks. Somewhat uncertain as one of my main contracts runs out at the end of the year but to be honest I have been so busy the last few years I am looking forward to things easing off for a while. My work-life balance has been way out of kilter for far too long.
  • Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In return for which Davey would no doubt hope to be Deputy PM to a PM Starmer if he needed LD support in a hung parliament to form a government

    Confidence and Supply at most, though even that didn't save the DUP in 2019.

    I think Labour minority government, and neither SNP nor LD would bring it down in the short term, though possibly would vote down specific bills. Labour wouldn't therefore table anything too controversial.

    Sounds like a competent, centre-ground administration to me. Let's have at it
    Are you serious. What do labour offer ? What do labour offer communities in towns, former red wall communities. They are a metropolitan big city based party. They are a party who sub contract policies to lobby groups like Stonewall and Greenpeace. They have, as of now, nothing to offer working class communities in the towns up and down the country. They need to come up with something. Not culture war crap but jobs, prospects, improving and levelling up.
    This is the interesting thing with the red wall. Labour failed them over a long period. The Tories are failing them under Boris Johnson.

    I expect a lot of people will just abstain.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In return for which Davey would no doubt hope to be Deputy PM to a PM Starmer if he needed LD support in a hung parliament to form a government

    Confidence and Supply at most, though even that didn't save the DUP in 2019.

    I think Labour minority government, and neither SNP nor LD would bring it down in the short term, though possibly would vote down specific bills. Labour wouldn't therefore table anything too controversial.

    Sounds like a competent, centre-ground administration to me. Let's have at it
    Are you serious. What do labour offer ? What do labour offer communities in towns, former red wall communities. They are a metropolitan big city based party. They are a party who sub contract policies to lobby groups like Stonewall and Greenpeace. They have, as of now, nothing to offer working class communities in the towns up and down the country. They need to come up with something. Not culture war crap but jobs, prospects, improving and levelling up.
    They offer a level of competence somewhere above 'absolutely bloody useless'. For me that is enough right now. I literally cannot think of any way they could be worse than the current shambles.
    We're heading for "acceptable under the circumstances"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that real infections to cases number for Omicron is 5x. That doesn't mean 90k x 5 at the moment (as still plenty of Delta).

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.

    If Omicron is that infectious then restrictions will not work.

    If Omicron is that infectious then the hospital numbers should be soaring unless it is much milder.

    If Omicron is that infectious then we will likely run out of anti-vaxxers very fast.
    Well the German modeller they had on DW News 2-3 weeks ago that early on said his guess was Omicron was x16 as infectious as original variant and if true, at those levels nothing would stop it. No European style lockdown etc. And now 3 weeks later, x15-16 looks about on the money.
  • Nigelb said:

    .

    Davey would have more sense than Clegg! FCO or CoE I suggest, although Home Office would give scope to make a real difference!

    If the has any sense he will be considering what his party wants in terms of policy rather than particular ministerial baubles.
    Either needs to deliver PR or show how coalition govt can work in the UK FPTP world without destroying the junior partner for a decade.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that real infections to cases number for Omicron is 5x. That doesn't mean 90k x 5 at the moment (as still plenty of Delta).

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.

    If Omicron is that infectious then restrictions will not work.

    If Omicron is that infectious then the hospital numbers should be soaring unless it is much milder.

    If Omicron is that infectious then we will likely run out of anti-vaxxers very fast.
    Yes, the Tory MPs need to hold off the lockdown for a matter of two or three weeks. It will all be over by then.
  • MaxPB said:

    Which is what @Alistair is tracking in the SA stats. It seems like Omicron presents less need got mechanical ventilation and need of the ICU. If our own research is finding the same then those forecasts of the NHS collapsing need to be significantly revised.
    That might correlate to Omicron having more cold type symptoms than the coughing covid is traditionally associated with.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572
    Hi horse. This was one of the studies I berated you for ignoring the other night. It’s easy to get locked on to a narrative and miss or ignore.dismiss conflicting information. I believe the prognosis is that omicron is genuinely less serious as a variant, and combined with lots of boosters etc, we won’t really see a huge problem in the U.K. I do understand that I might be wrong, and if I was in charge it would be an awful place to be right now. Everything from the last two years screams that huge case rises lead inevitably to huge deaths, so of course the pressure to lockdown must be immense.
    It won’t be long before we have a better idea of how bad this will be. As @Foxy says it’s likely to be quick, whatever happens.
  • MaxPB said:

    Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that real infections to cases number for Omicron is 5x. That doesn't mean 90k x 5 at the moment (as still plenty of Delta).

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.

    If Omicron is that infectious then restrictions will not work.

    If Omicron is that infectious then the hospital numbers should be soaring unless it is much milder.

    If Omicron is that infectious then we will likely run out of anti-vaxxers very fast.
    Yes, the Tory MPs need to hold off the lockdown for a matter of two or three weeks. It will all be over by then.
    I've always assumed that the number of infections is 2x that of the official cases.

    If they're saying with Omicron it is 5x then by definition the extra cases must be mostly asymptomatic or very mild symptoms.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that rather than rough 3x infections to cases, that Omicron is 5-6x.

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.

    Can you please clarify the second sentence? Must be me, but I can't work it out - do you mean that 1/5 or 1/6 of infections produce cases of symptoms or what?
    Not quite. It means a combination of asymptomatic and those that don't take tests for whatever reason.

    My thoughts were previously we used to talk about ~x3 multiplier....but now lots of people are LFT testing left, right and centre, which you would think would be picking up lots more of the previously undiscovered asymptomatic cases.
    Ah, thanks, so the reported cases in the official stats really represent 5 or 6 times as many cases in the real world (both er asymptomatic and not reported).
    Yes. Which I thought sounded incredibly high given we now do 1.5 million tests a day. And if it is correct, this wave won't take long to get through everybody.

    It just struck me as very large multiplier. But Trevor Philips didn't ask Javid for really any more information about it.
    This is interesting. I don’t think anyone’s believed testing has found all cases, but 5x sounds large in a work of asymptomatic testing. I strongly suspect that most negative lateral flows are not recorded. I wonder if this is yet another assumption chosen to fit the right result?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    MaxPB said:

    Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that real infections to cases number for Omicron is 5x. That doesn't mean 90k x 5 at the moment (as still plenty of Delta).

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.

    If Omicron is that infectious then restrictions will not work.

    If Omicron is that infectious then the hospital numbers should be soaring unless it is much milder.

    If Omicron is that infectious then we will likely run out of anti-vaxxers very fast.
    Yes, the Tory MPs need to hold off the lockdown for a matter of two or three weeks. It will all be over by then.
    I've always assumed that the number of infections is 2x that of the official cases.

    If they're saying with Omicron it is 5x then by definition the extra cases must be mostly asymptomatic or very mild symptoms.
    Or not being reported, of course. Which could include worse cases, to evade the track and trace service and pinging of household members. Is that a significant issue? I have no idea.
  • Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for max


    I have those people in my friendship group - and in my family

    They chortle away about “extra Ocado deliveries of Prosecco”, and building a fucking pizza oven in the garden for their sneaky parties, then they say “lockdown isn’t all bad” as if they’ve really considered how it impacts the other 50%+ of the country

    PB is also bad for this. It skews to the old, affluent and introverted. Lockdown is PERFECT for them. So they chortle away

    I wonder this time if young people will simply rebel. I would if I was 21 or 24. If you’re that age you’re seeing some of the greatest, most important years of your life being trashed, one after another. Instead of giddy young life you get a jail sentence.

    Fuck that shit

    Yeah I see that as well within my family circle, especially among my older cousins who are all very wealthy and live in big detached houses and have kids under 5 so not of school age.

    They all had lockdown breaking "gatherings" last winter as well of their social circles to which, happily, my wife and I were never invited. They're very much in favour of lockdowns, one of them has his wife as his secretary in his business, she was furloughed for the whole time. He doesn't need the money, they live in a £4m house in Barnet. Then my parents wonder why my sister and I don't get along with our extended family lol.
    It’s hard not to slap them when they simultaneously smirk at their good fortune AND preach about the importance of lockdown, “we do this to protect the NHS”, then they go out into their fucking enormous gardens to clap for carers

    Meanwhile the 9 year old kids and the bewildered teens locked in their high rise flats for months, down the road, just listen to this bizarre applause of a grotesque social torment

    I will add one thing. Lockdown 3 was so shit by the end some of the most hardened and self-satisfied of The Chortlers were showing the strain

    A big garden is great, it cannot replace the world. Not forever

    If we do get a long lockdown, this time could be vastly harder in multiple unexpected ways
    The promise of vaccinations a year ago brought hope.

    After a year of 125m vaccinations and maybe 15m acquired immunities allowing a lockdown would likely make them a permanent winter feature.
    Most people will not obey a long lockdown would be my prediction. We've had enough.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    MaxPB said:

    Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that real infections to cases number for Omicron is 5x. That doesn't mean 90k x 5 at the moment (as still plenty of Delta).

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.

    If Omicron is that infectious then restrictions will not work.

    If Omicron is that infectious then the hospital numbers should be soaring unless it is much milder.

    If Omicron is that infectious then we will likely run out of anti-vaxxers very fast.
    Yes, the Tory MPs need to hold off the lockdown for a matter of two or three weeks. It will all be over by then.
    I've always assumed that the number of infections is 2x that of the official cases.

    If they're saying with Omicron it is 5x then by definition the extra cases must be mostly asymptomatic or very mild symptoms.
    My understanding was ~3x was the rough number they worked on once we got decent testing regime. To go to 5x when we know LFT testing has become a national past time, I thought was worthy of more investigation, but of course the media didn't.

    Javid might well has misspoken again and perhaps was referring to when you see a number for a day, its now 5x today, because testing is backward looking. Again he was a little unclear in his statement, but I didn't take it as that. I took it as 5x infections to the case number.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,332

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that rather than rough 3x infections to cases, that Omicron is 5-6x.

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.

    Can you please clarify the second sentence? Must be me, but I can't work it out - do you mean that 1/5 or 1/6 of infections produce cases of symptoms or what?
    Not quite. It means a combination of asymptomatic and those that don't take tests for whatever reason.

    My thoughts were previously we used to talk about ~x3 multiplier....but now lots of people are LFT testing left, right and centre, which you would think would be picking up lots more of the previously undiscovered asymptomatic cases.
    Ah, thanks, so the reported cases in the official stats really represent 5 or 6 times as many cases in the real world (both er asymptomatic and not reported).
    Yes. Which I thought sounded incredibly high given we now do 1.5 million tests a day. And if it is correct, this wave won't take long to get through everybody.

    It just struck me as very large multiplier. But Trevor Philips didn't ask Javid for really any more information about it.
    If it is a much milder disease in the fairly large triple vaxxed, or the vaxxed plus previously infected population, more of those infected than previously might never get tested.
    What proportion of positive LFTs never get reported - do we have any idea of that ?
    And also there’s a small lag in reporting PCR results - with a variant that doubled every 2-3 days, that might make a large difference.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,255
    This notion of tactical voting being a thing has been hyped up by the GTTO wing of the country in every single electoral cycle I can remember, and clearly it's something that's more likely to come into play at by elections than at a General. But, maybe there's something in the 1997 comparison: perhaps Ashdown and Blair were seen as being similar enough that each set of voters found it easier to switch across to the other side? And arguably Starmer and Davey would be perceived as similarly interchangeable?
  • "We model the scenarios that are useful to decisions".

    This is the end of SAGE isn't it?

    They are done with this admittance.



  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,124

    The only people that seem to be relatively pro-lockdown are me and a couple of others and I say this despite it probably destroying my mental health.

    PB is not pro lockdown at all, Leon is just making things up, surprise surprise

    No-one who isn't mad is in favour of unnecessary lockdown. The question whether it is necessary isn't getting much airing here, where it doesn't matter, nor in the political arena, where it does matter.
  • Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In return for which Davey would no doubt hope to be Deputy PM to a PM Starmer if he needed LD support in a hung parliament to form a government

    Confidence and Supply at most, though even that didn't save the DUP in 2019.

    I think Labour minority government, and neither SNP nor LD would bring it down in the short term, though possibly would vote down specific bills. Labour wouldn't therefore table anything too controversial.

    Sounds like a competent, centre-ground administration to me. Let's have at it
    Are you serious. What do labour offer ? What do labour offer communities in towns, former red wall communities. They are a metropolitan big city based party. They are a party who sub contract policies to lobby groups like Stonewall and Greenpeace. They have, as of now, nothing to offer working class communities in the towns up and down the country. They need to come up with something. Not culture war crap but jobs, prospects, improving and levelling up.
    They offer a level of competence somewhere above 'absolutely bloody useless'. For me that is enough right now. I literally cannot think of any way they could be worse than the current shambles.
    In some ways perhaps but in other ways no.

    If Starmer was in charge we'd be lucky to have 10m boosters given by now.
    I am not sure you can say that. All we have to go on is the reality of Johnson and his gang being spectacularly useless at 90% of what they do. And barely competent at the rest. I simply cannot conceive of any leader - except perhaps Corbyn - being less suited for high office and more prone to make wrong decisions than Johnson.

    My own very personal view is that it is a toxic combination of extreme laziness combined with extreme arrogance. Being arrogant is not necessarily a bad thing for a politician if they have put in the work to back up their views and actions. If they have not put in that work - and Johnson clearly does not do that sort of work at all - then it is usually disastrous. Just as we have seen for the last year or more (vaccines excepted).
    My reasoning being that vaccinations are one thing the government has got right.

    A Starmer government would have put less or no pressure on the scientists to approve extra vaccinations and so started boosters later, would have left the roll-out to the NHS to dawdle along at and would not have made a big push when Omicron emerged.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that rather than rough 3x infections to cases, that Omicron is 5-6x.

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.

    Can you please clarify the second sentence? Must be me, but I can't work it out - do you mean that 1/5 or 1/6 of infections produce cases of symptoms or what?
    Not quite. It means a combination of asymptomatic and those that don't take tests for whatever reason.

    My thoughts were previously we used to talk about ~x3 multiplier....but now lots of people are LFT testing left, right and centre, which you would think would be picking up lots more of the previously undiscovered asymptomatic cases.
    Ah, thanks, so the reported cases in the official stats really represent 5 or 6 times as many cases in the real world (both er asymptomatic and not reported).
    Yes. Which I thought sounded incredibly high given we now do 1.5 million tests a day. And if it is correct, this wave won't take long to get through everybody.

    It just struck me as very large multiplier. But Trevor Philips didn't ask Javid for really any more information about it.
    If it is a much milder disease in the fairly large triple vaxxed, or the vaxxed plus previously infected population, more of those infected than previously might never get tested.
    What proportion of positive LFTs never get reported - do we have any idea of that ?
    And also there’s a small lag in reporting PCR results - with a variant that doubled every 2-3 days, that might make a large difference.
    That's the thing. It stuck me as ohh interesting, I think I would be asking such questions. As it could be actually good news, it could also be bloody HSA "modelling" bollocks again.....

    Are they telling Javid, this is actually pretty positive, its whipping through huge numbers of people and actually it really isn't seriously affecting many, so much so, 100ks each day don't even know they have it.

    Or are they telling, this is far far worse than that headline figure minister, as there are actually many many 100ks of cases not recorded and 1% of those will be heading to hospital....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that rather than rough 3x infections to cases, that Omicron is 5-6x.

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.

    Can you please clarify the second sentence? Must be me, but I can't work it out - do you mean that 1/5 or 1/6 of infections produce cases of symptoms or what?
    Not quite. It means a combination of asymptomatic and those that don't take tests for whatever reason.

    My thoughts were previously we used to talk about ~x3 multiplier....but now lots of people are LFT testing left, right and centre, which you would think would be picking up lots more of the previously undiscovered asymptomatic cases.
    Ah, thanks, so the reported cases in the official stats really represent 5 or 6 times as many cases in the real world (both er asymptomatic and not reported).
    Yes. Which I thought sounded incredibly high given we now do 1.5 million tests a day. And if it is correct, this wave won't take long to get through everybody.

    It just struck me as very large multiplier. But Trevor Philips didn't ask Javid for really any more information about it.
    This is interesting. I don’t think anyone’s believed testing has found all cases, but 5x sounds large in a work of asymptomatic testing. I strongly suspect that most negative lateral flows are not recorded. I wonder if this is yet another assumption chosen to fit the right result?
    Look at this. We also have real world data from NYC, which also has Omicron


    “But new hospitalizations and deaths are averaging well below their spring 2020 peak and even where they were this time last year, during a winter wave that came as vaccinations were just beginning, city data shows.

    “Mount Sinai Health System emergency rooms had seen about 20% more patients – with all conditions – in recent days, according to Dr Eric Legome, who oversees two of the network’s seven ERs. But at least so far, he said, “We’re seeing a lot more treat-and-release” coronavirus patients than in earlier waves.

    “Many are looking for tests, help with mild or moderate symptoms, or monoclonal antibody treatment, but very few require oxygen or a hospital stay, said Legome.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/19/new-york-22000-new-covid-cases-omicron-testing-hospitals-rockettes-snl

    To hell with the stupid models. Real life says This isn’t so bad. If they still lock us down, despite the hard evidence, I will personally REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED til he weeps

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Davey would have more sense than Clegg! FCO or CoE I suggest, although Home Office would give scope to make a real difference!

    If the has any sense he will be considering what his party wants in terms of policy rather than particular ministerial baubles.
    Wouldn’t disagree; was responding to the post about DOM, though.
    However some ‘liberalism’ at the top of the Home Office would a) be a good thing and b) make a nice change!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    kyf_100 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for max


    I have those people in my friendship group - and in my family

    They chortle away about “extra Ocado deliveries of Prosecco”, and building a fucking pizza oven in the garden for their sneaky parties, then they say “lockdown isn’t all bad” as if they’ve really considered how it impacts the other 50%+ of the country

    PB is also bad for this. It skews to the old, affluent and introverted. Lockdown is PERFECT for them. So they chortle away

    I wonder this time if young people will simply rebel. I would if I was 21 or 24. If you’re that age you’re seeing some of the greatest, most important years of your life being trashed, one after another. Instead of giddy young life you get a jail sentence.

    Fuck that shit

    You raise a good point (albeit in more colourful language than I would use), that the visit majority of the people involved in the public discussion around the pandemic, have secure middle-class jobs and live in houses with gardens.

    None of them have to go to an hourly-paid public-facing job, where meeting hundreds of people a day is a pre-requisite for the rent being paid at the end of the month. None of them run precarious small businesses, where remaining open appears to be even worse news for them than being ordered closed. None of them live an an overcrowded apartment with a small window for light and fresh air, next to a park that’s been closed.
    I live alone, though am moderately well off and have a decent sized place. The last lockdown almost destroyed me, mentally and physically, and I'm still not recovered now. The isolation was unbearable. I broke furniture, I punched walls, I drank morning, noon and night. I cried, frequently. At one point I actually punched myself in the face until I passed out. Why, you might ask? Because I said to myself, if I didn't do this now just to get through to tomorrow, I would surely kill myself or go mad.

    A zoom call does not replace human interaction. An hour's socially distanced exercise does not replace an evening with your mates in the pub. A phone call cannot replace a visit to a loved one in a care home. An online exercise class is no substitute for a PT session or a group class at your gym.

    At some point, the loneliness of solitude becomes unbearable.

    That was the reality of the last lockdown for me. Some people may love it. Good for them. Let them lock down if that's their choice. I've had my jabs and my booster. I want, no, I need to get on with my life.

    Enough is enough. No more lockdowns. If covid is endemic, we're going to have to learn how to live with it. We can't (I certainly can't) keep going on like this.
    Bravo - both for your honesty, and your sentiments. I agree entirely
  • Lockdown "facists"? Come on Max
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that rather than rough 3x infections to cases, that Omicron is 5-6x.

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.

    Can you please clarify the second sentence? Must be me, but I can't work it out - do you mean that 1/5 or 1/6 of infections produce cases of symptoms or what?
    Not quite. It means a combination of asymptomatic and those that don't take tests for whatever reason.

    My thoughts were previously we used to talk about ~x3 multiplier....but now lots of people are LFT testing left, right and centre, which you would think would be picking up lots more of the previously undiscovered asymptomatic cases.
    Ah, thanks, so the reported cases in the official stats really represent 5 or 6 times as many cases in the real world (both er asymptomatic and not reported).
    Yes. Which I thought sounded incredibly high given we now do 1.5 million tests a day. And if it is correct, this wave won't take long to get through everybody.

    It just struck me as very large multiplier. But Trevor Philips didn't ask Javid for really any more information about it.
    This is interesting. I don’t think anyone’s believed testing has found all cases, but 5x sounds large in a work of asymptomatic testing. I strongly suspect that most negative lateral flows are not recorded. I wonder if this is yet another assumption chosen to fit the right result?
    Look at this. We also have real world data from NYC, which also has Omicron


    “But new hospitalizations and deaths are averaging well below their spring 2020 peak and even where they were this time last year, during a winter wave that came as vaccinations were just beginning, city data shows.

    “Mount Sinai Health System emergency rooms had seen about 20% more patients – with all conditions – in recent days, according to Dr Eric Legome, who oversees two of the network’s seven ERs. But at least so far, he said, “We’re seeing a lot more treat-and-release” coronavirus patients than in earlier waves.

    “Many are looking for tests, help with mild or moderate symptoms, or monoclonal antibody treatment, but very few require oxygen or a hospital stay, said Legome.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/19/new-york-22000-new-covid-cases-omicron-testing-hospitals-rockettes-snl

    To hell with the stupid models. Real life says This isn’t so bad. If they still lock us down, despite the hard evidence, I will personally REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED til he weeps

    This is the point Fraser Nelson was making about the SAGE models, they simple use the most negative inputs and present that as evidence for lockdown. Any positive inputs are simply ignored as "not relevant to the decision making process" they are putting their finger on the scale and saying 6000 people per day will die.
  • kyf_100 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for max


    I have those people in my friendship group - and in my family

    They chortle away about “extra Ocado deliveries of Prosecco”, and building a fucking pizza oven in the garden for their sneaky parties, then they say “lockdown isn’t all bad” as if they’ve really considered how it impacts the other 50%+ of the country

    PB is also bad for this. It skews to the old, affluent and introverted. Lockdown is PERFECT for them. So they chortle away

    I wonder this time if young people will simply rebel. I would if I was 21 or 24. If you’re that age you’re seeing some of the greatest, most important years of your life being trashed, one after another. Instead of giddy young life you get a jail sentence.

    Fuck that shit

    You raise a good point (albeit in more colourful language than I would use), that the visit majority of the people involved in the public discussion around the pandemic, have secure middle-class jobs and live in houses with gardens.

    None of them have to go to an hourly-paid public-facing job, where meeting hundreds of people a day is a pre-requisite for the rent being paid at the end of the month. None of them run precarious small businesses, where remaining open appears to be even worse news for them than being ordered closed. None of them live an an overcrowded apartment with a small window for light and fresh air, next to a park that’s been closed.
    I live alone, though am moderately well off and have a decent sized place. The last lockdown almost destroyed me, mentally and physically, and I'm still not recovered now. The isolation was unbearable. I broke furniture, I punched walls, I drank morning, noon and night. I cried, frequently. At one point I actually punched myself in the face until I passed out. Why, you might ask? Because I said to myself, if I didn't do this now just to get through to tomorrow, I would surely kill myself or go mad.

    A zoom call does not replace human interaction. An hour's socially distanced exercise does not replace an evening with your mates in the pub. A phone call cannot replace a visit to a loved one in a care home. An online exercise class is no substitute for a PT session or a group class at your gym.

    At some point, the loneliness of solitude becomes unbearable.

    That was the reality of the last lockdown for me. Some people may love it. Good for them. Let them lock down if that's their choice. I've had my jabs and my booster. I want, no, I need to get on with my life.

    Enough is enough. No more lockdowns. If covid is endemic, we're going to have to learn how to live with it. We can't (I certainly can't) keep going on like this.
    Totally agree. I am sick of the mental health disaster that is lockdown being swept under the carpet and ignored.

    Do any of the academics screaming for lockdown now and for weeks on end, live on their own?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,332

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Davey would have more sense than Clegg! FCO or CoE I suggest, although Home Office would give scope to make a real difference!

    If the has any sense he will be considering what his party wants in terms of policy rather than particular ministerial baubles.
    Either needs to deliver PR or show how coalition govt can work in the UK FPTP world without destroying the junior partner for a decade.
    I’m not convinced it can without PR.
    A period of confidence and supply is not unrealistic.
  • Wasn't there a chart showing a big spike in hospitalisations in London? London meaning Omicron?
  • I think the LD's would be willing to offer C&S. I'm not even sure that the SNP would actually want a *formal* deal with Labour, even if the latter were open to it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Taz said:

    Are you serious. What do labour offer ?

    They will not immediately piss on their voters and tell them it is raining.

    Unlike BoZo and chums.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that rather than rough 3x infections to cases, that Omicron is 5-6x.

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.

    Can you please clarify the second sentence? Must be me, but I can't work it out - do you mean that 1/5 or 1/6 of infections produce cases of symptoms or what?
    Not quite. It means a combination of asymptomatic and those that don't take tests for whatever reason.

    My thoughts were previously we used to talk about ~x3 multiplier....but now lots of people are LFT testing left, right and centre, which you would think would be picking up lots more of the previously undiscovered asymptomatic cases.
    Ah, thanks, so the reported cases in the official stats really represent 5 or 6 times as many cases in the real world (both er asymptomatic and not reported).
    Yes. Which I thought sounded incredibly high given we now do 1.5 million tests a day. And if it is correct, this wave won't take long to get through everybody.

    It just struck me as very large multiplier. But Trevor Philips didn't ask Javid for really any more information about it.
    This is interesting. I don’t think anyone’s believed testing has found all cases, but 5x sounds large in a work of asymptomatic testing. I strongly suspect that most negative lateral flows are not recorded. I wonder if this is yet another assumption chosen to fit the right result?
    Look at this. We also have real world data from NYC, which also has Omicron


    “But new hospitalizations and deaths are averaging well below their spring 2020 peak and even where they were this time last year, during a winter wave that came as vaccinations were just beginning, city data shows.

    “Mount Sinai Health System emergency rooms had seen about 20% more patients – with all conditions – in recent days, according to Dr Eric Legome, who oversees two of the network’s seven ERs. But at least so far, he said, “We’re seeing a lot more treat-and-release” coronavirus patients than in earlier waves.

    “Many are looking for tests, help with mild or moderate symptoms, or monoclonal antibody treatment, but very few require oxygen or a hospital stay, said Legome.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/19/new-york-22000-new-covid-cases-omicron-testing-hospitals-rockettes-snl

    To hell with the stupid models. Real life says This isn’t so bad. If they still lock us down, despite the hard evidence, I will personally REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED til he weeps

    This is the point Fraser Nelson was making about the SAGE models, they simple use the most negative inputs and present that as evidence for lockdown. Any positive inputs are simply ignored as "not relevant to the decision making process" they are putting their finger on the scale and saying 6000 people per day will die.
    The circling of the wagons this morning on the media by the "modelling" community is something to behold. It is being spun as its basically the governments fault, they don't ask for the right things.
  • MaxPB said:

    You can tell the lockdown fascists are worried that Omicron will run out of steam before they get their lockdown. Previously they were saying Jan would be fine but now they want pre-Xmas lockdown because by the first week of Jan Omicron will already be on the downwards slope.

    Come on Tory MPs tell them to get fucked, tell the scientists with their lockdown fascism to fuck off. There's no other way to do it.

    If they lockdown pre-xmas they can claim it worked when omi peak turns over, as it is likely to do anyway, in early Jan.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    "We model the scenarios that are useful to decisions".

    This is the end of SAGE isn't it?

    They are done with this admittance.



    What's wrong with that? It's not in itself an unreasonable statement, or is there some context I am missing? Modelling, for instance, a scenario of 100% 90 year olds living each on their own without seeing anyone else would be a perfectly logical possibility, but it would be of no practical use and therefore not worth the time (except as a teaching example as part of a step in developing understanding of modelling).
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114
    MaxPB said:

    You can tell the lockdown fascists are worried that Omicron will run out of steam before they get their lockdown. Previously they were saying Jan would be fine but now they want pre-Xmas lockdown because by the first week of Jan Omicron will already be on the downwards slope.

    Come on Tory MPs tell them to get fucked, tell the scientists with their lockdown fascism to fuck off. There's no other way to do it.

    Fascists. Dear me.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that rather than rough 3x infections to cases, that Omicron is 5-6x.

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.

    Can you please clarify the second sentence? Must be me, but I can't work it out - do you mean that 1/5 or 1/6 of infections produce cases of symptoms or what?
    Not quite. It means a combination of asymptomatic and those that don't take tests for whatever reason.

    My thoughts were previously we used to talk about ~x3 multiplier....but now lots of people are LFT testing left, right and centre, which you would think would be picking up lots more of the previously undiscovered asymptomatic cases.
    Ah, thanks, so the reported cases in the official stats really represent 5 or 6 times as many cases in the real world (both er asymptomatic and not reported).
    Yes. Which I thought sounded incredibly high given we now do 1.5 million tests a day. And if it is correct, this wave won't take long to get through everybody.

    It just struck me as very large multiplier. But Trevor Philips didn't ask Javid for really any more information about it.
    This is interesting. I don’t think anyone’s believed testing has found all cases, but 5x sounds large in a work of asymptomatic testing. I strongly suspect that most negative lateral flows are not recorded. I wonder if this is yet another assumption chosen to fit the right result?
    Look at this. We also have real world data from NYC, which also has Omicron


    “But new hospitalizations and deaths are averaging well below their spring 2020 peak and even where they were this time last year, during a winter wave that came as vaccinations were just beginning, city data shows.

    “Mount Sinai Health System emergency rooms had seen about 20% more patients – with all conditions – in recent days, according to Dr Eric Legome, who oversees two of the network’s seven ERs. But at least so far, he said, “We’re seeing a lot more treat-and-release” coronavirus patients than in earlier waves.

    “Many are looking for tests, help with mild or moderate symptoms, or monoclonal antibody treatment, but very few require oxygen or a hospital stay, said Legome.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/19/new-york-22000-new-covid-cases-omicron-testing-hospitals-rockettes-snl

    To hell with the stupid models. Real life says This isn’t so bad. If they still lock us down, despite the hard evidence, I will personally REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED til he weeps

    This is the point Fraser Nelson was making about the SAGE models, they simple use the most negative inputs and present that as evidence for lockdown. Any positive inputs are simply ignored as "not relevant to the decision making process" they are putting their finger on the scale and saying 6000 people per day will die.
    The only people that can stop this madness are the parliamentary Tory party. They need to open the door and show Boris the revolver is on the table, waiting by the whisky bottle

    His choice. If he locks down, he knows what comes next
  • MaxPB said:

    Some interesting stats from the Javid interview on Sky.

    Basically the government / advisers are working on the premise that real infections to cases number for Omicron is 5x. That doesn't mean 90k x 5 at the moment (as still plenty of Delta).

    And that 90% of those in hospital "that need the most care" (whatever that exactly means, perhaps ICU?) are unvaccinated.

    If Omicron is that infectious then restrictions will not work.

    If Omicron is that infectious then the hospital numbers should be soaring unless it is much milder.

    If Omicron is that infectious then we will likely run out of anti-vaxxers very fast.
    Yes, the Tory MPs need to hold off the lockdown for a matter of two or three weeks. It will all be over by then.
    I've always assumed that the number of infections is 2x that of the official cases.

    If they're saying with Omicron it is 5x then by definition the extra cases must be mostly asymptomatic or very mild symptoms.
    My understanding was ~3x was the rough number they worked on once we got decent testing regime. To go to 5x when we know LFT testing has become a national past time, I thought was worthy of more investigation, but of course the media didn't.

    Javid might well has misspoken again and perhaps was referring to when you see a number for a day, its now 5x today, because testing is backward looking. Again he was a little unclear in his statement, but I didn't take it as that. I took it as 5x infections to the case number.
    3x official cases would suggest about 40m previous infections.

    And over 20m during the last six months.

    During which I didn't notice the NHS collapsing.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    Lockdown "facists"? Come on Max

    Yes, people who seek to lock people in their homes against their will. No other way to describe it Horse. The models have specifically used the worst VE for Omicron (the table that includes a modelled 6x reduction in antibody binding efficiency) rather than the actual observed VE. They have ignored the emerging evidence you posted earlier on Omicron being worse at replicating in lung tissue and better on nasal tissue (and that's UK evidence, not from SA). They have ignored the SA to SA comparison for Delta vs Omicron.

    They are twisting the available data into a lockdown so they we are all locked away. It's what fascists do, they twist the facts to suit their agenda rather than follow what the evidence says.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    I think the LD's would be willing to offer C&S. I'm not even sure that the SNP would actually want a *formal* deal with Labour, even if the latter were open to it.

    Add PC and Alliance, obvs.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,649
    edited December 2021
    FF43 said:

    The only people that seem to be relatively pro-lockdown are me and a couple of others and I say this despite it probably destroying my mental health.

    PB is not pro lockdown at all, Leon is just making things up, surprise surprise

    No-one who isn't mad is in favour of unnecessary lockdown. The question whether it is necessary isn't getting much airing here, where it doesn't matter, nor in the political arena, where it does matter.
    What is telling is that most who are against lockdown now have been against it for most of the last year, and those who are in favour now have been in favour for most of the last year. I am not sure the real scientific risks which have changed greatly in the last three weeks, and may do so each day as we learn more about the virus, make much impact on either side, it is more of an emotional and personal decision about which "side" to be on perhaps.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    Wasn't there a chart showing a big spike in hospitalisations in London? London meaning Omicron?

    There was a separate report on the NHS England website showing most of the increase was in incidental, as in people who come in for other stuff but are also positive for COVID. If 1/10 Londoners have COVID then 1/10 people turning up go hospitals will be registered in the stats.
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In return for which Davey would no doubt hope to be Deputy PM to a PM Starmer if he needed LD support in a hung parliament to form a government

    Confidence and Supply at most, though even that didn't save the DUP in 2019.

    I think Labour minority government, and neither SNP nor LD would bring it down in the short term, though possibly would vote down specific bills. Labour wouldn't therefore table anything too controversial.

    Sounds like a competent, centre-ground administration to me. Let's have at it
    Are you serious. What do labour offer ? What do labour offer communities in towns, former red wall communities. They are a metropolitan big city based party. They are a party who sub contract policies to lobby groups like Stonewall and Greenpeace. They have, as of now, nothing to offer working class communities in the towns up and down the country. They need to come up with something. Not culture war crap but jobs, prospects, improving and levelling up.
    This is the interesting thing with the red wall. Labour failed them over a long period. The Tories are failing them under Boris Johnson.

    I expect a lot of people will just abstain.
    Yes. That is what I expect too. We are inclined not to bother now Labour took these areas for granted for many years and did little for them. Boris promised to level up. Reneged on it.

    So where do these communities go. The greens and Lib Dem parties have little regard or time for them. Effectively they have no advocates just parties who want their votes and mislead and lie to them. My worry is something unpleasant fills the void..
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In return for which Davey would no doubt hope to be Deputy PM to a PM Starmer if he needed LD support in a hung parliament to form a government

    Confidence and Supply at most, though even that didn't save the DUP in 2019.

    I think Labour minority government, and neither SNP nor LD would bring it down in the short term, though possibly would vote down specific bills. Labour wouldn't therefore table anything too controversial.

    Sounds like a competent, centre-ground administration to me. Let's have at it
    Are you serious. What do labour offer ? What do labour offer communities in towns, former red wall communities. They are a metropolitan big city based party. They are a party who sub contract policies to lobby groups like Stonewall and Greenpeace. They have, as of now, nothing to offer working class communities in the towns up and down the country. They need to come up with something. Not culture war crap but jobs, prospects, improving and levelling up.
    They offer a level of competence somewhere above 'absolutely bloody useless'. For me that is enough right now. I literally cannot think of any way they could be worse than the current shambles.
    In some ways perhaps but in other ways no.

    If Starmer was in charge we'd be lucky to have 10m boosters given by now.
    I am not sure you can say that. All we have to go on is the reality of Johnson and his gang being spectacularly useless at 90% of what they do. And barely competent at the rest. I simply cannot conceive of any leader - except perhaps Corbyn - being less suited for high office and more prone to make wrong decisions than Johnson.

    My own very personal view is that it is a toxic combination of extreme laziness combined with extreme arrogance. Being arrogant is not necessarily a bad thing for a politician if they have put in the work to back up their views and actions. If they have not put in that work - and Johnson clearly does not do that sort of work at all - then it is usually disastrous. Just as we have seen for the last year or more (vaccines excepted).
    Yep. Exactly. Like Cameron he's surfed through life on class privilege, charm and connections but at least with DC there was some ability and a willingness to think and do some work. With this guy there's absolutely nothing there. It's amazing we have such a person as PM. I was going to say it's amazing and 'so unfortunate' but the latter isn't strictly fair since we voted for him. His power and position comes from the people.
This discussion has been closed.