Mail: Mutinous backbenchers have been retweeting messages suggesting that it might be 'too late' for the premier to save himself, after the massive mutiny over Plan B curbs last week and weeks of misery over sleaze allegations and the Downing Street 'Partygate' scandal. It could make it even harder for Mr Johnson to push through new restrictions to combat the surging Omicron variant, despite scientists warning mixing between households should be banned at Christmas.
Nikki da Costa, a former No10 aide and friend of Lord Frost, warned that the 'whole system' in No 10 'doesn't work'. Echoing the views of many MPs, she told the Sunday Telegraph that Dan Rosenfield, a former Treasury official who replaced Dominic Cummings in Downing Street in late 2020, was partly responsible because he lacked 'political sensibility'. 'He doesn't like challenge,' she said.
Lord Frost, who negotiated Britain's departure from the EU as Brexit Minister, is understood to have been persuaded to delay his resignation until January after giving notice to Mr Johnson a week ago. However, after the Mail on Sunday exclusively revealed he was departing, the peer brought forward his departure.
Conservative MPs are increasingly talking about a challenge to the Prime Minister's leadership within the next six months, with Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss leading the field of contenders. Messages from a Whatsapp group of more than 100 Tory MPs titled 'Clean Global Brexit', showed Andrew Bridgen describing the move as a 'disaster' while Theresa Villiers calls it 'very worrying'.
The developing scene includes these snapshots: UK as a whole is divided as much as ever about the merits of Brexit at all; the Tory party looks like shifting its split over EU v leave EU to one flavour of Brexit v another flavour of Brexit, but just as visceral.
For all his total unsuitability to the role and the many reasons he shouldn’t be in the job he could be another Tory,leader to lose their job over Europe. A peculiar Tory,obsession.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He’s also a self proclaimed expert on pizza dough. Truly a man of many talents.
Newcastle are going to be the richest team in the Championship....
Wonder if anyone’s told the new shareholders how the football pyramid works?
IIRC there was an American who bought into a team which then got relegated, and the new shareholder didn’t understand that he hadn’t bought a “English Premier League Franchise”.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
Are you saying he's wrong?
I'd point out that's further than most of the media have got. They're still quoting these errors as gospel. That's at least part of the problem.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
Twas ever thus. They loathe the sight of people having fun and getting on with life. If the pandemic is over they slide back into irrelevance.
Oh for goodness sake Max, you're falling into silly land now
I think it does hurt them that no one's listening to them any more, hence the ratcheting up of stupid numbers and the irrational person here defending their honour despite the regular failures. It's all they have left, I'm sure in a week we'll get a newly revised prediction of 10k dead per day because the 6k wasn't enough to get people convinced.
I see very little evidence that the split on this site has really changed, the same people are pro lockdown as a year ago.
The split may not have changed but I'd be surprised if all of us haven't been on a bit of a journey as to our views. Unless you're the Piers Corbyn, or Steve Baker edges of our society then I think that must be true.
I genuinely don't really know my own opinion now - there's not so much science emerging it seems. My hunch is that Javid is weak and wobbly (just because that's my judgement of him beforehand).
I hope you are well - and thank you for your previous kind suggestion of meeting me. I simply cannot ask you to buy me food or a drink but I appreciate the sentiment all the same.
I am anti-lockdown in the sense it is bad for my health and bad for businesses like @Cyclefree's daughter, for whom I have a lot of sympathy.
But I am instinctively pro protecting and saving lives, I think in many ways that informs my politics as one of compassion and love and that is the person I try to be. So that is how I see things.
I hope we do not need a lockdown - but I do think it is far too early to be saying everything is ok. Because we've been down this road before with Delta. And I remember having the same arguments with Phil and others this time last year.
Last year I was much more open to the idea of restrictions than I am now. I hated the idea of them, but we hadn't rolled vaccines out yet, so the idea of restrictions until we've vaccinated the vulnerable made some sense.
This is a completely different scenario now. We've not just triple vaccinated the vulnerable, we have vaccinated everyone who wants it.
Restrictions now aren't buying time for a vaccine rollout, they're just an act of denial shoving your head in the sand thinking the big bad virus will go away if only you wish very hard that it does.
Utter rubbish.
I remember arguing with you at length about there being no need for a lockdown, how we'd already reached herd immunity.
I never said that last year. Not as far as I recall.
"An important point. Chairman of Sage modellers presumes someone else in gvt is modelling the economic and social harm of a new lockdown. But no one is (and that’s not his fault).
"How can ministers decide how to “balance the harms” if they’re only given one side of the story?"
It's the same point I made last night. The government is like a big corporation wondering whether to launch a risky new product. They bring in their advisors, and all they ask the advisors is: what is the downside of launching this, how bad can it get?
They then get a series of forecasts ranging from "big loss" to "total bankruptcy"
They don't ever ask the other side of the question, what is the upside, how good can it be, which might get the answers "huge profit" to "global domination". They never hear the possible positives
So this corporation always errs on the side of caution, never innovates, and becomes Pan Am, Kodak or Nokia
If that is true, then surely it is Rishi's responsibility as CoE to ensure the Treasury is modeling the options? Black eye for a future PM wannabe.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
All of them what all the time? I don't think any of the high-profile SAGE forecasts have been accurate.
Twas ever thus. They loathe the sight of people having fun and getting on with life. If the pandemic is over they slide back into irrelevance.
Two weeks yesterday. One month today. It'll be three months by Xmas Eve.
I am not prepared to do more than two weeks. End of discussion.
How will you rebel? If the pubs, caffs and shops are shut, they are shut. Ditto everything else
I am seriously looking at flights to Bangkok. A friend there says life is reasonable, bars and restaurants are open but fairly quiet (you have to eat to drink, but it is liberally interpreted to include beer nuts)
He says there is a good chance Thailand will close the border to the UK in early January, if not before
I could go out there and get stranded, for ages, and then Thailand also goes into lockdown anyway, so I am basically confined to a hotel and can't see anyone.
However it might well be worth the risk for me, because three+ months of winter lockdown in the UK, like last year, would likely break me
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Are you a bot or just a dickhead?
So far your input to PB has not been exactly impressive. And we are a welcoming bunch, normally
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Are you a bot or just a dickhead?
So far your input to PB has not been exactly impressive. And we are a welcoming bunch, normally
Nah he's a former poster, defender of government scientists under a new more aggressive guise. Like the cornered animal, it becomes more aggressive because it knows it's fucked. He would come back as @AlwaysSinging if he had any integrity.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
All of them what all the time? I don't think any of the high-profile SAGE forecasts have been accurate.
Duh.. because they are used to guide policy, hence by definition they are not going to be accurate to the real world, unless they are completely ignored.
This is such simple stuff surely the modelling experts have gone through it all already?
I suspect the government will resist some of the most severe calls for restrictions but there still seem to be sensible choices that they are in danger of dying in a ditch over refusing to make.
1. Schools. Its well known they are a major transmission driver and logic suggests an extended break would have been a good idea espcially pre Christmas but no, no one wants to do that
2. Older people. over 70s in particular. Encouraging limiting of contacts, agreeing certain preferntial times at supermarkets and so on makes sense because they still represent a very large slice of hospitalisation
As well as the booster programme, there are also two other things that also change the calculus:
Anti virals. These are reportedly due to come on stream as early as January and designed to cut a need for admissions.
As regards the unknowns about Omicron one of the most signifcant explanations as to why it may not generally cause as severe disease was an analysis by a team at Oxford which explains the scence behinmd the why. If that holds then it does suggest we might be worth taking more of a punt and not dragging the economy, peoples mental health and so forth down the gutter again.
"An important point. Chairman of Sage modellers presumes someone else in gvt is modelling the economic and social harm of a new lockdown. But no one is (and that’s not his fault).
"How can ministers decide how to “balance the harms” if they’re only given one side of the story?"
It's the same point I made last night. The government is like a big corporation wondering whether to launch a risky new product. They bring in their advisors, and all they ask the advisors is: what is the downside of launching this, how bad can it get?
They then get a series of forecasts ranging from "big loss" to "total bankruptcy"
They don't ever ask the other side of the question, what is the upside, how good can it be, which might get the answers "huge profit" to "global domination". They never hear the possible positives
So this corporation always errs on the side of caution, never innovates, and becomes Pan Am, Kodak or Nokia
If that is true, then surely it is Rishi's responsibility as CoE to ensure the Treasury is modeling the options? Black eye for a future PM wannabe.
Apparently the Treasury DID do this last winter - model the social/economic downsides of lockdown, but they got a terrific roasting for "valuing money over life" (completely absurd of course) and now they are all too scared to even mention it
We are so badly governed it is beyond belief. I for one cannot wait until GPT6 or the Aliens simply take over
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
All of them what all the time? I don't think any of the high-profile SAGE forecasts have been accurate.
Duh.. because they are used to guide policy, hence by definition they are not going to be accurate to the real world, unless they are completely ignored.
This is such simple stuff surely the modelling experts have gone through it all already?
They are not accurate because they are going to be used to guide policy? OK.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
Really? I thought Max's (at least one of his many) argument was that the wide boys in the City could do a better job. Or that the academics were fascist or something. There's been so many it's hard to keep up.
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
I got my booster today. Add 1 to today's Scotland total.
Any side effects? I don't even have a sore arm which is a bit worrying.
No, no side effects. It was Moderna after my first two Astrazeneca. The only jab I have had any reaction to was my flu virus one in November, when I felt a bit shit for a couple of days.
Some posters have been commenting on the motives of those who appear to want to re-introduce more restrictions or possibly another ‘lockdown’ whatever that specifically means. I don’t doubt that there is an appetite for more measures coming from the likes of Whitty and his colleagues. Is this because they are control freaks, power hungry or worst of all secretly fascist? I find that distinctly unlikely and worth us remembering that it’s a great human failing to attribute the worst motives to people we disagree with doubly so at a time of stress or misery.
Sean Fear has suggested that the relationship between the government and Whitty et all was like that between the government and the military in times of war. That’s true and ultimately it is up for the government to decide because advisers only advise. Commanders often have much sympathy with their frontline troops and I suspect Whitty is no different. Clearly the last two years have been a huge burden on health service staff and here we are again asking them to make another big commitment. Not that January is ever an easy month for them of course. I can understand why Whitty would want to minimise the burden on his staff but ultimately it is not for the government to prioritise the staff of the health service above everything else. It is this I suspect that might explain the ‘enthusiasm’ for stringent control measures right now.
One other thing. Dr John Campbell made the point yesterday that hospital staff can be a rather superstitious bunch. Don’t say things are going quite well or better than expected for fear of tempting fate. Sports fans will be familiar with the curse of the commentator, say some is batting really well he’s never getting out, or such and such never serves a double fault and you know what is likely to happen next. Well maybe not but people avoid doing it anyway. I imagine that the pandemic has taken it’s toll on all the government’s advisers. I can understand why if you think you have continually been surprised on the downside with regards to covid it would be difficult to accept any good news that comes along. Omicron looks less severe? Let’s not get our hopes up or tempt fate. There’s a lot of shame (shaming?) in false optimism that gets corrected by events so it’s easier to focus on the negatives. I’ll risk it and be cautiously optimistic.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
Really? I thought Max's (at least one of his many) argument was that the wide boys in the City could do a better job. Or that the academics were fascist or something. There's been so many it's hard to keep up.
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
As an historian, if I don't have a reliable source on an event in Nazi Germany, I don't use the bulletins of the Deutsches Nachrichten Buro as a substitute. I say, I don't know.
It would be better for them to admit they don't know than to waste time and on incorrect and highly damaging guesswork.
Or do you actually think it's better to use lies that cause harm than to admit ignorance or use past experience (which these models do not) as a guide? Because if so you're clearly not rational and not worth arguing with.
Twas ever thus. They loathe the sight of people having fun and getting on with life. If the pandemic is over they slide back into irrelevance.
Two weeks yesterday. One month today. It'll be three months by Xmas Eve.
I am not prepared to do more than two weeks. End of discussion.
I'm not prepared to do a single day. COVID is endemic, we can't lockdown every time there's a new variant.
You've locked yourself down whilst you are sick though. Which is more than Philip would have you do.
Indeed, though there does need to be a day when that's no longer necessary. I can't say when that is, maybe when everyone has had it at least once or had three doses. Reinfection is pretty low and case severity from reinfection is very low as well. It will be the next big call because that's the point at which the government is saying it's endemic and the risk is small enough to no longer halt your life for 10 days.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
Really? I thought Max's (at least one of his many) argument was that the wide boys in the City could do a better job. Or that the academics were fascist or something. There's been so many it's hard to keep up.
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
Create some non-stupid models, without the fundamental errors?
"An important point. Chairman of Sage modellers presumes someone else in gvt is modelling the economic and social harm of a new lockdown. But no one is (and that’s not his fault).
"How can ministers decide how to “balance the harms” if they’re only given one side of the story?"
It's the same point I made last night. The government is like a big corporation wondering whether to launch a risky new product. They bring in their advisors, and all they ask the advisors is: what is the downside of launching this, how bad can it get?
They then get a series of forecasts ranging from "big loss" to "total bankruptcy"
They don't ever ask the other side of the question, what is the upside, how good can it be, which might get the answers "huge profit" to "global domination". They never hear the possible positives
So this corporation always errs on the side of caution, never innovates, and becomes Pan Am, Kodak or Nokia
If that is true, then surely it is Rishi's responsibility as CoE to ensure the Treasury is modeling the options? Black eye for a future PM wannabe.
Apparently the Treasury DID do this last winter - model the social/economic downsides of lockdown, but they got a terrific roasting for "valuing money over life" (completely absurd of course) and now they are all too scared to even mention it
We are so badly governed it is beyond belief. I for one cannot wait until GPT6 or the Aliens simply take over
The reality behind Covid isn't too difficult to percieve: essentially; mass panic, hysteria and delusion. In such an atmosphere it is foolish to even try and engage in such discussion. It just feeds off a 21st century western obsession with safety. The impulse to prevent avoidable death is overwhelming. So society will destroy itself, in trying to keep itself safe.
I got my booster today. Add 1 to today's Scotland total.
Any side effects? I don't even have a sore arm which is a bit worrying.
No, no side effects. It was Moderna after my first two Astrazeneca. The only jab I have had any reaction to was my flu virus one in November, when I felt a bit shit for a couple of days.
I don't even know what vaccine I had, as I forgot to ask. Pfizer again I think.
Nothing like the first AZ dose but I'm pretty useless today.
I've just had the Moderna booster. I'm expecting a rough 24-48 hours.
It's funny how this mucks some people up and leaves others well alone. No side effects at all from either of my AZ's, and the Moderna caused a very slight sore arm for about two days. Apart from that, fine.
Nothing like the first AZ dose but I'm pretty useless today.
I've just had the Moderna booster. I'm expecting a rough 24-48 hours.
In my experience with Moderna, you know quickly how its going to be. The second dose I hardly got home from the vaccine centre when I started to felt like somebody had smashed me over the head with a frying pan.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
Really? I thought Max's (at least one of his many) argument was that the wide boys in the City could do a better job. Or that the academics were fascist or something. There's been so many it's hard to keep up.
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
Create some non-stupid models, without the fundamental errors?
No, they have to be inaccurate if they are to be used to guide policy... apparently.
"An important point. Chairman of Sage modellers presumes someone else in gvt is modelling the economic and social harm of a new lockdown. But no one is (and that’s not his fault).
"How can ministers decide how to “balance the harms” if they’re only given one side of the story?"
It's the same point I made last night. The government is like a big corporation wondering whether to launch a risky new product. They bring in their advisors, and all they ask the advisors is: what is the downside of launching this, how bad can it get?
They then get a series of forecasts ranging from "big loss" to "total bankruptcy"
They don't ever ask the other side of the question, what is the upside, how good can it be, which might get the answers "huge profit" to "global domination". They never hear the possible positives
So this corporation always errs on the side of caution, never innovates, and becomes Pan Am, Kodak or Nokia
If that is true, then surely it is Rishi's responsibility as CoE to ensure the Treasury is modeling the options? Black eye for a future PM wannabe.
Apparently the Treasury DID do this last winter - model the social/economic downsides of lockdown, but they got a terrific roasting for "valuing money over life" (completely absurd of course) and now they are all too scared to even mention it
We are so badly governed it is beyond belief. I for one cannot wait until GPT6 or the Aliens simply take over
The reality behind Covid isn't too difficult to percieve: essentially; mass panic, hysteria and delusion. In such an atmosphere it is foolish to even try and engage in such discussion. It just feeds off a 21st century western obsession with safety. The impulse to prevent avoidable death is overwhelming. So society will destroy itself, in trying to keep itself safe.
Yes. There is also a problem in how we cope with death in a post-religious society. In a word, we don't. Without the solace of an afterlife, we refuse to contemplate the reality of death -
eg look at just how many people die every year. In Britain that is 600,000. 50,000 every month on average, but of course much more in the winter. How many are aware of this, or think about it? Vanishingly few. It is death.. It is too bleak. Turn on Strictly.
If we had more awareness of mortality we might be less frightened of it, and thus able to deal with things like pandemics a lot better
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
Really? I thought Max's (at least one of his many) argument was that the wide boys in the City could do a better job. Or that the academics were fascist or something. There's been so many it's hard to keep up.
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
As an historian, if I don't have a reliable source on an event in Nazi Germany, I don't use the bulletins of the Deutsches Nachrichten Buro as a substitute. I say, I don't know.
It would be better for them to admit they don't know than to waste time and on incorrect and highly damaging guesswork.
Or do you actually think it's better to use lies that cause harm than to admit ignorance or use past experience (which these models do not) as a guide? Because if so you're clearly not rational and not worth arguing with.
That's great so you'd prefer it that the scientific community just says 'dunno'.
Doctor, what are the chances of me surviving this cancer? Dunno.
Weatherman, is it going to rain at the weekend? Dunno.
Epidemiologists, are we going to have 1 million people dying in the next few months? Dunno.
Twas ever thus. They loathe the sight of people having fun and getting on with life. If the pandemic is over they slide back into irrelevance.
Two weeks yesterday. One month today. It'll be three months by Xmas Eve.
I am not prepared to do more than two weeks. End of discussion.
I'm not prepared to do a single day. COVID is endemic, we can't lockdown every time there's a new variant.
You've locked yourself down whilst you are sick though. Which is more than Philip would have you do.
Indeed, though there does need to be a day when that's no longer necessary. I can't say when that is, maybe when everyone has had it at least once or had three doses. Reinfection is pretty low and case severity from reinfection is very low as well. It will be the next big call because that's the point at which the government is saying it's endemic and the risk is small enough to no longer halt your life for 10 days.
My biggest immediate concern for the health service is the number of staff having to isolate leaving them under manned.
I used to know Piers, vaguely, when he was a squatters' leader in Elgin Avenue back in the 70s. Anyone who can lead squatters deserves mention in the same hushed tones as Hannibal or Field Marshal Montgomery. In those days he was only slightly dotty, but it's been downhill all the way, unfortunately.
I knew a finance guy, maths background, who took some time off to develop his model of how part of the financial market went.
I shared the stuff he sent me with a Maths Prof of my aquaintance. Who said, essentially, that the first 5 pages of densely hand-written maths was "not bad" with prices of "quite brilliant". Beyond that it was progressively more and more batshit insane.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
Really? I thought Max's (at least one of his many) argument was that the wide boys in the City could do a better job. Or that the academics were fascist or something. There's been so many it's hard to keep up.
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
As an historian, if I don't have a reliable source on an event in Nazi Germany, I don't use the bulletins of the Deutsches Nachrichten Buro as a substitute. I say, I don't know.
It would be better for them to admit they don't know than to waste time and on incorrect and highly damaging guesswork.
Or do you actually think it's better to use lies that cause harm than to admit ignorance or use past experience (which these models do not) as a guide? Because if so you're clearly not rational and not worth arguing with.
That's great so you'd prefer it that the scientific community just says 'dunno'.
Doctor, what are the chances of me surviving this cancer? Dunno.
Weatherman, is it going to rain at the weekend? Dunno.
Epidemiologists, are we going to have 1 million people dying in the next few months? Dunno.
You seem to be missing the point quite spectacularly here. The issue is the assumptions being made in the model are wrong, which is undoubtedly leading to a more pessimistic prediction.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
Really? I thought Max's (at least one of his many) argument was that the wide boys in the City could do a better job. Or that the academics were fascist or something. There's been so many it's hard to keep up.
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
As an historian, if I don't have a reliable source on an event in Nazi Germany, I don't use the bulletins of the Deutsches Nachrichten Buro as a substitute. I say, I don't know.
It would be better for them to admit they don't know than to waste time and on incorrect and highly damaging guesswork.
Or do you actually think it's better to use lies that cause harm than to admit ignorance or use past experience (which these models do not) as a guide? Because if so you're clearly not rational and not worth arguing with.
That's great so you'd prefer it that the scientific community just says 'dunno'.
Doctor, what are the chances of me surviving this cancer? Dunno.
Weatherman, is it going to rain at the weekend? Dunno.
Epidemiologists, are we going to have 1 million people dying in the next few months? Dunno.
Yes.
Finally!
Any sane person would think that's a million times better than the pack of lies they're feeding us now,
Nothing like the first AZ dose but I'm pretty useless today.
I've just had the Moderna booster. I'm expecting a rough 24-48 hours.
In my experience with Moderna, you know quickly how its going to be. The second dose I hardly got home from the vaccine centre when I started to felt like somebody had smashed me over the head with a frying pan.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
Really? I thought Max's (at least one of his many) argument was that the wide boys in the City could do a better job. Or that the academics were fascist or something. There's been so many it's hard to keep up.
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
Create some non-stupid models, without the fundamental errors?
There are a few experts on here. I keep asking them to have a go but they won't.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
Really? I thought Max's (at least one of his many) argument was that the wide boys in the City could do a better job. Or that the academics were fascist or something. There's been so many it's hard to keep up.
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
Create some non-stupid models, without the fundamental errors?
No, they have to be inaccurate if they are to be used to guide policy... apparently.
I dont think thats the point that was made
It was that the worst case models are based on us not imposing restrictions as a result of the expected outcome.
Since we always have imposed restrictions its impossible to know whether they would have been accurate had we not
I got my booster today. Add 1 to today's Scotland total.
Any side effects? I don't even have a sore arm which is a bit worrying.
No, no side effects. It was Moderna after my first two Astrazeneca. The only jab I have had any reaction to was my flu virus one in November, when I felt a bit shit for a couple of days.
I don't even know what vaccine I had, as I forgot to ask. Pfizer again I think.
"An important point. Chairman of Sage modellers presumes someone else in gvt is modelling the economic and social harm of a new lockdown. But no one is (and that’s not his fault).
"How can ministers decide how to “balance the harms” if they’re only given one side of the story?"
It's the same point I made last night. The government is like a big corporation wondering whether to launch a risky new product. They bring in their advisors, and all they ask the advisors is: what is the downside of launching this, how bad can it get?
They then get a series of forecasts ranging from "big loss" to "total bankruptcy"
They don't ever ask the other side of the question, what is the upside, how good can it be, which might get the answers "huge profit" to "global domination". They never hear the possible positives
So this corporation always errs on the side of caution, never innovates, and becomes Pan Am, Kodak or Nokia
If that is true, then surely it is Rishi's responsibility as CoE to ensure the Treasury is modeling the options? Black eye for a future PM wannabe.
Apparently the Treasury DID do this last winter - model the social/economic downsides of lockdown, but they got a terrific roasting for "valuing money over life" (completely absurd of course) and now they are all too scared to even mention it
We are so badly governed it is beyond belief. I for one cannot wait until GPT6 or the Aliens simply take over
The reality behind Covid isn't too difficult to percieve: essentially; mass panic, hysteria and delusion. In such an atmosphere it is foolish to even try and engage in such discussion. It just feeds off a 21st century western obsession with safety. The impulse to prevent avoidable death is overwhelming. So society will destroy itself, in trying to keep itself safe.
Yes. There is also a problem in how we cope with death in a post-religious society. In a word, we don't. Without the solace of an afterlife, we refuse to contemplate the reality of death -
eg look at just how many people die every year. In Britain that is 600,000. 50,000 every month on average, but of course much more in the winter. How many are aware of this, or think about it? Vanishingly few. It is death.. It is too bleak. Turn on Strictly.
If we had more awareness of mortality we might be less frightened of it, and thus able to deal with things like pandemics a lot better
Most of the global population are still religious though and do believe in an afterlife. So for them confronting death is less of an issue
I got my booster today. Add 1 to today's Scotland total.
Any side effects? I don't even have a sore arm which is a bit worrying.
No, no side effects. It was Moderna after my first two Astrazeneca. The only jab I have had any reaction to was my flu virus one in November, when I felt a bit shit for a couple of days.
I don't even know what vaccine I had, as I forgot to ask. Pfizer again I think.
It will tell you on the little card they give you
They didn't give me a card.
Edit - I think it will be on the NHS app eventually but it hasn't been uploaded yet.
Some posters have been commenting on the motives of those who appear to want to re-introduce more restrictions or possibly another ‘lockdown’ whatever that specifically means. I don’t doubt that there is an appetite for more measures coming from the likes of Whitty and his colleagues. Is this because they are control freaks, power hungry or worst of all secretly fascist? I find that distinctly unlikely and worth us remembering that it’s a great human failing to attribute the worst motives to people we disagree with doubly so at a time of stress or misery.
Sean Fear has suggested that the relationship between the government and Whitty et all was like that between the government and the military in times of war. That’s true and ultimately it is up for the government to decide because advisers only advise. Commanders often have much sympathy with their frontline troops and I suspect Whitty is no different. Clearly the last two years have been a huge burden on health service staff and here we are again asking them to make another big commitment. Not that January is ever an easy month for them of course. I can understand why Whitty would want to minimise the burden on his staff but ultimately it is not for the government to prioritise the staff of the health service above everything else. It is this I suspect that might explain the ‘enthusiasm’ for stringent control measures right now.
One other thing. Dr John Campbell made the point yesterday that hospital staff can be a rather superstitious bunch. Don’t say things are going quite well or better than expected for fear of tempting fate. Sports fans will be familiar with the curse of the commentator, say some is batting really well he’s never getting out, or such and such never serves a double fault and you know what is likely to happen next. Well maybe not but people avoid doing it anyway. I imagine that the pandemic has taken it’s toll on all the government’s advisers. I can understand why if you think you have continually been surprised on the downside with regards to covid it would be difficult to accept any good news that comes along. Omicron looks less severe? Let’s not get our hopes up or tempt fate. There’s a lot of shame (shaming?) in false optimism that gets corrected by events so it’s easier to focus on the negatives. I’ll risk it and be cautiously optimistic.
Out of curiosity how has John Campbell got such a profile? Ive seen a few bits of his stuff and he appears somewhat normal which is maybe why hes got the profile...
"An important point. Chairman of Sage modellers presumes someone else in gvt is modelling the economic and social harm of a new lockdown. But no one is (and that’s not his fault).
"How can ministers decide how to “balance the harms” if they’re only given one side of the story?"
It's the same point I made last night. The government is like a big corporation wondering whether to launch a risky new product. They bring in their advisors, and all they ask the advisors is: what is the downside of launching this, how bad can it get?
They then get a series of forecasts ranging from "big loss" to "total bankruptcy"
They don't ever ask the other side of the question, what is the upside, how good can it be, which might get the answers "huge profit" to "global domination". They never hear the possible positives
So this corporation always errs on the side of caution, never innovates, and becomes Pan Am, Kodak or Nokia
If that is true, then surely it is Rishi's responsibility as CoE to ensure the Treasury is modeling the options? Black eye for a future PM wannabe.
Apparently the Treasury DID do this last winter - model the social/economic downsides of lockdown, but they got a terrific roasting for "valuing money over life" (completely absurd of course) and now they are all too scared to even mention it
We are so badly governed it is beyond belief. I for one cannot wait until GPT6 or the Aliens simply take over
The reality behind Covid isn't too difficult to percieve: essentially; mass panic, hysteria and delusion. In such an atmosphere it is foolish to even try and engage in such discussion. It just feeds off a 21st century western obsession with safety. The impulse to prevent avoidable death is overwhelming. So society will destroy itself, in trying to keep itself safe.
The panic, hysteria and delusion is predominantly coming from the "mad scientists gonna lock us down forever cos they luv it" brigade.
Apparently the Treasury DID do this last winter - model the social/economic downsides of lockdown, but they got a terrific roasting for "valuing money over life" (completely absurd of course) and now they are all too scared to even mention it
We are so badly governed it is beyond belief. I for one cannot wait until GPT6 or the Aliens simply take over
The reality behind Covid isn't too difficult to percieve: essentially; mass panic, hysteria and delusion. In such an atmosphere it is foolish to even try and engage in such discussion. It just feeds off a 21st century western obsession with safety. The impulse to prevent avoidable death is overwhelming. So society will destroy itself, in trying to keep itself safe.
Not quite.
For the first time, technology has enabled Governments to adopt a different response to a pandemic. It is possible for hundreds of thousands of admin based staff to work in their own homes rather than like battery hens at banks of desks in some remote town or city.
Incredible medical advances have enabled life-saving vaccines to be produced not in years but months.
When we had the Hong Kong Flu in the late 60s, none of that existed. We just had to "keep buggering on" as the saying has it. Unquestionably, lives have been saved by the progress we have made and we are now able to put the priority of public health above the priority of economic wealth.
Yes, there have been deaths, both due to the virus and to the psychological and emotional impacts of the measures taken to prevent it. Had we done nothing in March 2020, would more lives have been lost? Unquestionably. However, this cannot and must not ignore the hidden "costs" of the virus which aren't so much the lost businesses, bad though it is but the suicides and the deaths by abuse (whether physical or psychological) or the deaths of those who couldn't get the treatment they needed for other conditions.
Even now, we witter on about data models - the biggest risk group for Omicron isn't as much the unvaccinated but those with other health problems such as those in hospital.
"An important point. Chairman of Sage modellers presumes someone else in gvt is modelling the economic and social harm of a new lockdown. But no one is (and that’s not his fault).
"How can ministers decide how to “balance the harms” if they’re only given one side of the story?"
It's the same point I made last night. The government is like a big corporation wondering whether to launch a risky new product. They bring in their advisors, and all they ask the advisors is: what is the downside of launching this, how bad can it get?
They then get a series of forecasts ranging from "big loss" to "total bankruptcy"
They don't ever ask the other side of the question, what is the upside, how good can it be, which might get the answers "huge profit" to "global domination". They never hear the possible positives
So this corporation always errs on the side of caution, never innovates, and becomes Pan Am, Kodak or Nokia
If that is true, then surely it is Rishi's responsibility as CoE to ensure the Treasury is modeling the options? Black eye for a future PM wannabe.
Apparently the Treasury DID do this last winter - model the social/economic downsides of lockdown, but they got a terrific roasting for "valuing money over life" (completely absurd of course) and now they are all too scared to even mention it
We are so badly governed it is beyond belief. I for one cannot wait until GPT6 or the Aliens simply take over
The reality behind Covid isn't too difficult to percieve: essentially; mass panic, hysteria and delusion. In such an atmosphere it is foolish to even try and engage in such discussion. It just feeds off a 21st century western obsession with safety. The impulse to prevent avoidable death is overwhelming. So society will destroy itself, in trying to keep itself safe.
The panic, hysteria and delusion is predominantly coming from the "mad scientists gonna lock us down forever cos they luv it" brigade.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
Really? I thought Max's (at least one of his many) argument was that the wide boys in the City could do a better job. Or that the academics were fascist or something. There's been so many it's hard to keep up.
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
As an historian, if I don't have a reliable source on an event in Nazi Germany, I don't use the bulletins of the Deutsches Nachrichten Buro as a substitute. I say, I don't know.
It would be better for them to admit they don't know than to waste time and on incorrect and highly damaging guesswork.
Or do you actually think it's better to use lies that cause harm than to admit ignorance or use past experience (which these models do not) as a guide? Because if so you're clearly not rational and not worth arguing with.
That's great so you'd prefer it that the scientific community just says 'dunno'.
Doctor, what are the chances of me surviving this cancer? Dunno.
Weatherman, is it going to rain at the weekend? Dunno.
Epidemiologists, are we going to have 1 million people dying in the next few months? Dunno.
When a close relative was diagnosed with inopperable cancer, the specialist (top of his field, wrote definitive papers on the particular type of cancer) said, when asked, he had no idea how long they would live. People were always confounding him, apparently.
He did describe in simple, clear detail, the stages that would occur. Because that he had information for. In great detail, backed by peer review publications (I asked).
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
Really? I thought Max's (at least one of his many) argument was that the wide boys in the City could do a better job. Or that the academics were fascist or something. There's been so many it's hard to keep up.
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
As an historian, if I don't have a reliable source on an event in Nazi Germany, I don't use the bulletins of the Deutsches Nachrichten Buro as a substitute. I say, I don't know.
It would be better for them to admit they don't know than to waste time and on incorrect and highly damaging guesswork.
Or do you actually think it's better to use lies that cause harm than to admit ignorance or use past experience (which these models do not) as a guide? Because if so you're clearly not rational and not worth arguing with.
That's great so you'd prefer it that the scientific community just says 'dunno'.
Doctor, what are the chances of me surviving this cancer? Dunno.
Weatherman, is it going to rain at the weekend? Dunno.
Epidemiologists, are we going to have 1 million people dying in the next few months? Dunno.
Yes.
Finally!
Any sane person would think that's a million times better than the pack of lies they're feeding us now,
Great. I hope you get the 'dunno' answer the next time you ask someone a tricky question where you want their expertise.
Pack of lies? You sound a bit like a conspiracy theorist. You do realise that don't you?
So number of boosters has stalled in the 800,000s per day and actually fell today… does this reflect a capacity constraint or is demand beginning to fall back after the opening-up-to-all at the beginning of the week… what more can the Government do to scare encourage more to do the right thing…
or that Wales didn't announce their stats today? and that if you go to https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations and look at boosters data, you'll see that 10 of the 11 weeks show the same pattern.
and that pattern returns. SHOCKED.
Don't. Chase. Daily. Figures.
Hey, don’t have a go at me matey (the bold quote above)… I’m just trying to hype interest in a competition to guess the daily maximum… 😁 an update on which will be posted shortly…
Leon, talking of bots, i can get you access to GPT3 if you are interested.
Oooh, I'd love to. Yes please. Can u DM me?
Sure. I will send you the instructions to access it in a bit. Its slightly limited, but its better than nothing.
Most kind
Interacting with creative AI is massively addicting. My access to Art AI i have, i now have a scary number of physical canvases of results i have achieved on their way from the printers.....i only meant to have a few printed out!
"An important point. Chairman of Sage modellers presumes someone else in gvt is modelling the economic and social harm of a new lockdown. But no one is (and that’s not his fault).
"How can ministers decide how to “balance the harms” if they’re only given one side of the story?"
It's the same point I made last night. The government is like a big corporation wondering whether to launch a risky new product. They bring in their advisors, and all they ask the advisors is: what is the downside of launching this, how bad can it get?
They then get a series of forecasts ranging from "big loss" to "total bankruptcy"
They don't ever ask the other side of the question, what is the upside, how good can it be, which might get the answers "huge profit" to "global domination". They never hear the possible positives
So this corporation always errs on the side of caution, never innovates, and becomes Pan Am, Kodak or Nokia
If that is true, then surely it is Rishi's responsibility as CoE to ensure the Treasury is modeling the options? Black eye for a future PM wannabe.
Apparently the Treasury DID do this last winter - model the social/economic downsides of lockdown, but they got a terrific roasting for "valuing money over life" (completely absurd of course) and now they are all too scared to even mention it
We are so badly governed it is beyond belief. I for one cannot wait until GPT6 or the Aliens simply take over
The reality behind Covid isn't too difficult to percieve: essentially; mass panic, hysteria and delusion. In such an atmosphere it is foolish to even try and engage in such discussion. It just feeds off a 21st century western obsession with safety. The impulse to prevent avoidable death is overwhelming. So society will destroy itself, in trying to keep itself safe.
Yes. There is also a problem in how we cope with death in a post-religious society. In a word, we don't. Without the solace of an afterlife, we refuse to contemplate the reality of death -
eg look at just how many people die every year. In Britain that is 600,000. 50,000 every month on average, but of course much more in the winter. How many are aware of this, or think about it? Vanishingly few. It is death.. It is too bleak. Turn on Strictly.
If we had more awareness of mortality we might be less frightened of it, and thus able to deal with things like pandemics a lot better
Most of the global population are still religious though and do believe in an afterlife. So for them confronting death is less of an issue
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
Really? I thought Max's (at least one of his many) argument was that the wide boys in the City could do a better job. Or that the academics were fascist or something. There's been so many it's hard to keep up.
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
As an historian, if I don't have a reliable source on an event in Nazi Germany, I don't use the bulletins of the Deutsches Nachrichten Buro as a substitute. I say, I don't know.
It would be better for them to admit they don't know than to waste time and on incorrect and highly damaging guesswork.
Or do you actually think it's better to use lies that cause harm than to admit ignorance or use past experience (which these models do not) as a guide? Because if so you're clearly not rational and not worth arguing with.
That's great so you'd prefer it that the scientific community just says 'dunno'.
Doctor, what are the chances of me surviving this cancer? Dunno.
Weatherman, is it going to rain at the weekend? Dunno.
Epidemiologists, are we going to have 1 million people dying in the next few months? Dunno.
You seem to be missing the point quite spectacularly here. The issue is the assumptions being made in the model are wrong, which is undoubtedly leading to a more pessimistic prediction.
Which assumptions? Perhaps they are meant to be wrong or rather, perhaps no one knows the truth of the matter yet?
This would suggest that Omicron was seeded in Demark about the same time as the UK and is spreading as quickly.
The Danish data is representative up to about 13 December, so there may be a difference between reported date and test date for the UK and Danish omicron data.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
Really? I thought Max's (at least one of his many) argument was that the wide boys in the City could do a better job. Or that the academics were fascist or something. There's been so many it's hard to keep up.
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
Create some non-stupid models, without the fundamental errors?
No, they have to be inaccurate if they are to be used to guide policy... apparently.
I dont think thats the point that was made
It was that the worst case models are based on us not imposing restrictions as a result of the expected outcome.
Since we always have imposed restrictions its impossible to know whether they would have been accurate had we not
No, these models always included different scenarios for what would happen if restriction A, B, C, etc.. was imposed.
I got my booster today. Add 1 to today's Scotland total.
Any side effects? I don't even have a sore arm which is a bit worrying.
No, no side effects. It was Moderna after my first two Astrazeneca. The only jab I have had any reaction to was my flu virus one in November, when I felt a bit shit for a couple of days.
I don't even know what vaccine I had, as I forgot to ask. Pfizer again I think.
It will tell you on the little card they give you
Unlike Michael Gove and Brexit Britain, the NHS App holds all the cards
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
Really? I thought Max's (at least one of his many) argument was that the wide boys in the City could do a better job. Or that the academics were fascist or something. There's been so many it's hard to keep up.
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
As an historian, if I don't have a reliable source on an event in Nazi Germany, I don't use the bulletins of the Deutsches Nachrichten Buro as a substitute. I say, I don't know.
It would be better for them to admit they don't know than to waste time and on incorrect and highly damaging guesswork.
Or do you actually think it's better to use lies that cause harm than to admit ignorance or use past experience (which these models do not) as a guide? Because if so you're clearly not rational and not worth arguing with.
That's great so you'd prefer it that the scientific community just says 'dunno'.
Doctor, what are the chances of me surviving this cancer? Dunno.
Weatherman, is it going to rain at the weekend? Dunno.
Epidemiologists, are we going to have 1 million people dying in the next few months? Dunno.
You seem to be missing the point quite spectacularly here. The issue is the assumptions being made in the model are wrong, which is undoubtedly leading to a more pessimistic prediction.
Which assumptions? Perhaps they are meant to be wrong or rather, perhaps no one knows the truth of the matter yet?
Perhaps the assumptions are meant to be wrong?
And surely you know what assumptions are being disputed, unless you've not actually been reading the comments of those you've been criticising?
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
Really? I thought Max's (at least one of his many) argument was that the wide boys in the City could do a better job. Or that the academics were fascist or something. There's been so many it's hard to keep up.
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
As an historian, if I don't have a reliable source on an event in Nazi Germany, I don't use the bulletins of the Deutsches Nachrichten Buro as a substitute. I say, I don't know.
It would be better for them to admit they don't know than to waste time and on incorrect and highly damaging guesswork.
Or do you actually think it's better to use lies that cause harm than to admit ignorance or use past experience (which these models do not) as a guide? Because if so you're clearly not rational and not worth arguing with.
That's great so you'd prefer it that the scientific community just says 'dunno'.
Doctor, what are the chances of me surviving this cancer? Dunno.
Weatherman, is it going to rain at the weekend? Dunno.
Epidemiologists, are we going to have 1 million people dying in the next few months? Dunno.
Yes.
Finally!
Any sane person would think that's a million times better than the pack of lies they're feeding us now,
Great. I hope you get the 'dunno' answer the next time you ask someone a tricky question where you want their expertise.
Pack of lies? You sound a bit like a conspiracy theorist. You do realise that don't you?
Oh really, this is ridiculous. They have repeatedly and deliberately put forward false information with intent to deceive. That's called 'a pack of lies.'
And yes, I prefer honest admissions of ignorance. Far better than the terrible damage these consistently failed models are doing.
You probably don't know philosophy but Aristotle once said there was only form of knowledge worth having and that was the knowledge of your own ignorance. These people don't have it, and clearly, nor do you.
As for your abuse, you're showing your true colours. You are just a nasty troll. You have so far said nothing worthwhile or helpful. You have abused multiple posters, including a highly offensive rewrite of one poster's name. You have deliberately made false statements and done so for no other reason than to cause trouble.
@PBModerator you might want to take a look at this one too. Much cleverer than the last troll but not much pleasanter.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
Really? I thought Max's (at least one of his many) argument was that the wide boys in the City could do a better job. Or that the academics were fascist or something. There's been so many it's hard to keep up.
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
As an historian, if I don't have a reliable source on an event in Nazi Germany, I don't use the bulletins of the Deutsches Nachrichten Buro as a substitute. I say, I don't know.
It would be better for them to admit they don't know than to waste time and on incorrect and highly damaging guesswork.
Or do you actually think it's better to use lies that cause harm than to admit ignorance or use past experience (which these models do not) as a guide? Because if so you're clearly not rational and not worth arguing with.
That's great so you'd prefer it that the scientific community just says 'dunno'.
Doctor, what are the chances of me surviving this cancer? Dunno.
Weatherman, is it going to rain at the weekend? Dunno.
Epidemiologists, are we going to have 1 million people dying in the next few months? Dunno.
When a close relative was diagnosed with inopperable cancer, the specialist (top of his field, wrote definitive papers on the particular type of cancer) said, when asked, he had no idea how long they would live. People were always confounding him, apparently.
He did describe in simple, clear detail, the stages that would occur. Because that he had information for. In great detail, backed by peer review publications (I asked).
Whatever works for him and his patients.
But some patients might want to really know.. so they can plan things etc.
"An important point. Chairman of Sage modellers presumes someone else in gvt is modelling the economic and social harm of a new lockdown. But no one is (and that’s not his fault).
"How can ministers decide how to “balance the harms” if they’re only given one side of the story?"
It's the same point I made last night. The government is like a big corporation wondering whether to launch a risky new product. They bring in their advisors, and all they ask the advisors is: what is the downside of launching this, how bad can it get?
They then get a series of forecasts ranging from "big loss" to "total bankruptcy"
They don't ever ask the other side of the question, what is the upside, how good can it be, which might get the answers "huge profit" to "global domination". They never hear the possible positives
So this corporation always errs on the side of caution, never innovates, and becomes Pan Am, Kodak or Nokia
If that is true, then surely it is Rishi's responsibility as CoE to ensure the Treasury is modeling the options? Black eye for a future PM wannabe.
Apparently the Treasury DID do this last winter - model the social/economic downsides of lockdown, but they got a terrific roasting for "valuing money over life" (completely absurd of course) and now they are all too scared to even mention it
We are so badly governed it is beyond belief. I for one cannot wait until GPT6 or the Aliens simply take over
The reality behind Covid isn't too difficult to percieve: essentially; mass panic, hysteria and delusion. In such an atmosphere it is foolish to even try and engage in such discussion. It just feeds off a 21st century western obsession with safety. The impulse to prevent avoidable death is overwhelming. So society will destroy itself, in trying to keep itself safe.
Yes. There is also a problem in how we cope with death in a post-religious society. In a word, we don't. Without the solace of an afterlife, we refuse to contemplate the reality of death -
eg look at just how many people die every year. In Britain that is 600,000. 50,000 every month on average, but of course much more in the winter. How many are aware of this, or think about it? Vanishingly few. It is death.. It is too bleak. Turn on Strictly.
If we had more awareness of mortality we might be less frightened of it, and thus able to deal with things like pandemics a lot better
Yes - there is that. But also, the point made by Lord Sumption in the first of his Reith lectures; policy and law is increasingly driven by a desire for safety. An overwhelming urge that is impossible to resist. The way that we have dealt with Covid is entirely in line with this phenomenon.
(edit- this is possibly caused by the decline of religion, but could also be the rise of the belief in progress as a religion)
The 600k deaths is interesting. I pointed out earlier that the 2020 figure was not out sync with historical averages. I suspect it will be the same for 2021. So with Covid, we will have just moved in to a biosurveillance state, at unthinkably great economic cost, to prevent avoidable deaths. The latest Omicron panic indicates that things will not go back to normal, and that the Covid era is a paradigm shift in how we deal with disease.
"An important point. Chairman of Sage modellers presumes someone else in gvt is modelling the economic and social harm of a new lockdown. But no one is (and that’s not his fault).
"How can ministers decide how to “balance the harms” if they’re only given one side of the story?"
It's the same point I made last night. The government is like a big corporation wondering whether to launch a risky new product. They bring in their advisors, and all they ask the advisors is: what is the downside of launching this, how bad can it get?
They then get a series of forecasts ranging from "big loss" to "total bankruptcy"
They don't ever ask the other side of the question, what is the upside, how good can it be, which might get the answers "huge profit" to "global domination". They never hear the possible positives
So this corporation always errs on the side of caution, never innovates, and becomes Pan Am, Kodak or Nokia
If that is true, then surely it is Rishi's responsibility as CoE to ensure the Treasury is modeling the options? Black eye for a future PM wannabe.
Apparently the Treasury DID do this last winter - model the social/economic downsides of lockdown, but they got a terrific roasting for "valuing money over life" (completely absurd of course) and now they are all too scared to even mention it
We are so badly governed it is beyond belief. I for one cannot wait until GPT6 or the Aliens simply take over
The reality behind Covid isn't too difficult to percieve: essentially; mass panic, hysteria and delusion. In such an atmosphere it is foolish to even try and engage in such discussion. It just feeds off a 21st century western obsession with safety. The impulse to prevent avoidable death is overwhelming. So society will destroy itself, in trying to keep itself safe.
The panic, hysteria and delusion is predominantly coming from the "mad scientists gonna lock us down forever cos they luv it" brigade.
"An important point. Chairman of Sage modellers presumes someone else in gvt is modelling the economic and social harm of a new lockdown. But no one is (and that’s not his fault).
"How can ministers decide how to “balance the harms” if they’re only given one side of the story?"
It's the same point I made last night. The government is like a big corporation wondering whether to launch a risky new product. They bring in their advisors, and all they ask the advisors is: what is the downside of launching this, how bad can it get?
They then get a series of forecasts ranging from "big loss" to "total bankruptcy"
They don't ever ask the other side of the question, what is the upside, how good can it be, which might get the answers "huge profit" to "global domination". They never hear the possible positives
So this corporation always errs on the side of caution, never innovates, and becomes Pan Am, Kodak or Nokia
If that is true, then surely it is Rishi's responsibility as CoE to ensure the Treasury is modeling the options? Black eye for a future PM wannabe.
Apparently the Treasury DID do this last winter - model the social/economic downsides of lockdown, but they got a terrific roasting for "valuing money over life" (completely absurd of course) and now they are all too scared to even mention it
We are so badly governed it is beyond belief. I for one cannot wait until GPT6 or the Aliens simply take over
The reality behind Covid isn't too difficult to percieve: essentially; mass panic, hysteria and delusion. In such an atmosphere it is foolish to even try and engage in such discussion. It just feeds off a 21st century western obsession with safety. The impulse to prevent avoidable death is overwhelming. So society will destroy itself, in trying to keep itself safe.
The panic, hysteria and delusion is predominantly coming from the "mad scientists gonna lock us down forever cos they luv it" brigade.
I don't believe the boffins are "mad", but it has to be asked why SAGE & Co are so relentlessly and wrongly pessimistic, time and again, and so eager for lockdown. It is a legitimate and important question
At least one - Michie - is a professed communist, who admits her desire for a reordered society with greater state control. so she's doggy. Kick her out immediately
Of the rest, who knows. I do believe that some of iSage are getting off on the fame. Someone like Pagel is building an entire media career out of alarmism. She now has 175,000 followers and is an important influencer, writes for the papers. Etc. Before Covid she probably had 9 followers. An obscure scientist doing obscure science. Now she is famous and probably making money. None of that would have happened if her tweets had been measured and her predictions on the modest side, rather than scary and clickbaity
As for the others, there might be further explanations. Groupthink, for a start. Also a tendency to value healthcare above all else in the medics. Plus a desire to protect the NHS. Along with an inability to understand wider social costs?
Some of them strike me as actually quite dim. Remember Van Tam and his mask advice. Likewise Harries. Simply over-promoted time-servers? I have never met them so who knows.
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
Really? I thought Max's (at least one of his many) argument was that the wide boys in the City could do a better job. Or that the academics were fascist or something. There's been so many it's hard to keep up.
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
As an historian, if I don't have a reliable source on an event in Nazi Germany, I don't use the bulletins of the Deutsches Nachrichten Buro as a substitute. I say, I don't know.
It would be better for them to admit they don't know than to waste time and on incorrect and highly damaging guesswork.
Or do you actually think it's better to use lies that cause harm than to admit ignorance or use past experience (which these models do not) as a guide? Because if so you're clearly not rational and not worth arguing with.
That's great so you'd prefer it that the scientific community just says 'dunno'.
Doctor, what are the chances of me surviving this cancer? Dunno.
Weatherman, is it going to rain at the weekend? Dunno.
Epidemiologists, are we going to have 1 million people dying in the next few months? Dunno.
When a close relative was diagnosed with inopperable cancer, the specialist (top of his field, wrote definitive papers on the particular type of cancer) said, when asked, he had no idea how long they would live. People were always confounding him, apparently.
He did describe in simple, clear detail, the stages that would occur. Because that he had information for. In great detail, backed by peer review publications (I asked).
Whatever works for him and his patients.
But some patients might want to really know.. so they can plan things etc.
His crystal ball might not have been working.
Do you not actually realise how stupid that comment sounds? I mean - really! 'They might want to know?' Well the only way to know would be to commit fecking suicide on an appointed day!
So number of boosters has stalled in the 800,000s per day and actually fell today… does this reflect a capacity constraint or is demand beginning to fall back after the opening-up-to-all at the beginning of the week… what more can the Government do to scare encourage more to do the right thing…
or that Wales didn't announce their stats today? and that if you go to https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations and look at boosters data, you'll see that 10 of the 11 weeks show the same pattern.
and that pattern returns. SHOCKED.
Don't. Chase. Daily. Figures.
Hey, don’t have a go at me matey (the bold quote above)… I’m just trying to hype interest in a competition to guess the daily maximum… 😁 an update on which will be posted shortly…
904,598 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 exc Wales yesterday (530,086 the previous Saturday)
🏴 830,403 🏴 64,081 NI 10,114
When Welsh data is added in (tomorrow) it's almost certain yesterday will turn out to be the first day that more than a million vaccines were given out - figure excluding Wales is c. 987k I think.
Think we'll hit the million mark this week and then it will be after new year's day before we get back to that level.
Great prediction lol. Must have really been a challenge to make that extrapolation. Now now master modeller with all the really clever friends. Where are hospitalisations going to be this week and next?
Nobody knows. Including the modellers working for the government. Their modelling every single time have however been out, often by huge margins. So nobody should be using it.
If of course you have clairvoyant powers and can deliver the information, perhaps you should be advising the government?
I don't know myself but then I haven't posted thousands of posts pretending I do, always after the event of course. ;-)
Max at least has been saying for months on end that this modelling doesn't make sense and the use of them is flawed.
Which is all anyone can do.
What is disturbing is the way they are, despite being patently flawed, they are being used to strongly push a policy agenda.
Which is what is the real issue at stake here. Not the models - they work as they are intended to - but how they are deployed and what they are used for.
'This modelling doesn't make sense'. Wow is that the level of insight that Max has been giving? Very impressive stuff. Forensic.
He's given specific examples of where the assumptions used in the models are wrong. And we don't have to take his word for it, just look at how accurate they have been in the past.
How accurate they have been? All of them all the time?
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
Er - you're asking him to predict something when the whole point of what he"s saying is that the methods used are useless and it's totally unpredictable?
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
Really? I thought Max's (at least one of his many) argument was that the wide boys in the City could do a better job. Or that the academics were fascist or something. There's been so many it's hard to keep up.
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
As an historian, if I don't have a reliable source on an event in Nazi Germany, I don't use the bulletins of the Deutsches Nachrichten Buro as a substitute. I say, I don't know.
It would be better for them to admit they don't know than to waste time and on incorrect and highly damaging guesswork.
Or do you actually think it's better to use lies that cause harm than to admit ignorance or use past experience (which these models do not) as a guide? Because if so you're clearly not rational and not worth arguing with.
That's great so you'd prefer it that the scientific community just says 'dunno'.
Doctor, what are the chances of me surviving this cancer? Dunno.
Weatherman, is it going to rain at the weekend? Dunno.
Epidemiologists, are we going to have 1 million people dying in the next few months? Dunno.
You seem to be missing the point quite spectacularly here. The issue is the assumptions being made in the model are wrong, which is undoubtedly leading to a more pessimistic prediction.
I’m still optimistic. As I said before, my feel is that this new variant will rip through populations in every country fast, after which covid will hopefully and essentially be over as a global pandemic. Because it will have run of new people to infect.
Yes, there’ll be local outbreaks here and there, where by some accident there are clumps of unvaccinated and/or uninfected people, but the virus will add itself to the collection of winter viruses that come round every year and carry off not insignificant numbers, and likely winter flu deaths may double or treble for a few years to come. And people will take getting their annual jab a lot more seriously.
But by next summer the idea that the news agenda and public policy in every nation is focused on covid as the number one threat should be gone. There’ll be a potential dividend for the countries that come to terms with this earliest.
Just as many people struggled with the idea that life was about to dramatically change, when the virus first appeared in the news at the turn of 2019/20, so we find it hard to imagine that, pretty soon, it will be gone as a newsworthy phenomenon. Yet both are clear if you look back to the history of 1918-19.
In the meantime, politicians and health experts are understandably keen to avoid a Bergamo scenario unfolding over the next few weeks. Which is fair enough, and we should all do what we can to try and catch the virus next year rather than this.
I suspect it wasn't the first message that wasn't related to the ones that proceeded it.
As I said yesterday - the interesting thing is that a whole set of Tory MPs are working out how to remove Boris in a way that means he actually goes...
Comments
IIRC there was an American who bought into a team which then got relegated, and the new shareholder didn’t understand that he hadn’t bought a “English Premier League Franchise”.
I'd point out that's further than most of the media have got. They're still quoting these errors as gospel. That's at least part of the problem.
I only spoke about herd immunity this year.
I am not prepared to do more than two weeks. End of discussion.
Max has just enough knowledge to pretend he knows something. But ask him to produce his own prediction, he goes strangely quiet. It's the same for his mate Mr Francis. They know all the answers but always after the event. Funny that.
I am seriously looking at flights to Bangkok. A friend there says life is reasonable, bars and restaurants are open but fairly quiet (you have to eat to drink, but it is liberally interpreted to include beer nuts)
He says there is a good chance Thailand will close the border to the UK in early January, if not before
I could go out there and get stranded, for ages, and then Thailand also goes into lockdown anyway, so I am basically confined to a hotel and can't see anyone.
However it might well be worth the risk for me, because three+ months of winter lockdown in the UK, like last year, would likely break me
OK. Tell Vlad from me this is an improvement on that bullshit about pilots, or his massive cockup in Salisbury, or backing that drunken failure Lukashenko, but it's still not working.
And have a good one.
So far your input to PB has not been exactly impressive. And we are a welcoming bunch, normally
https://web.archive.org/web/20190109214720/https:/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/12060976/I-cant-stand-this-December-heat-but-it-has-nothing-to-do-with-global-warming.html
How times change, eh?
This is such simple stuff surely the modelling experts have gone through it all already?
1. Schools. Its well known they are a major transmission driver and logic suggests an extended break would have been a good idea espcially pre Christmas but no, no one wants to do that
2. Older people. over 70s in particular. Encouraging limiting of contacts, agreeing certain preferntial times at supermarkets and so on makes sense because they still represent a very large slice of hospitalisation
As well as the booster programme, there are also two other things that also change the calculus:
Anti virals. These are reportedly due to come on stream as early as January and designed to cut a need for admissions.
As regards the unknowns about Omicron one of the most signifcant explanations as to why it may not generally cause as severe disease was an analysis by a team at Oxford which explains the scence behinmd the why. If that holds then it does suggest we might be worth taking more of a punt and not dragging the economy, peoples mental health and so forth down the gutter again.
We are so badly governed it is beyond belief. I for one cannot wait until GPT6 or the Aliens simply take over
I thought that was the point of this thread?
You didn't answer my question though. If we don't use a model what should we do? Finger in the air?
Be prepared to be tired till he loses GE2024
Sean Fear has suggested that the relationship between the government and Whitty et all was like that between the government and the military in times of war. That’s true and ultimately it is up for the government to decide because advisers only advise. Commanders often have much sympathy with their frontline troops and I suspect Whitty is no different. Clearly the last two years have been a huge burden on health service staff and here we are again asking them to make another big commitment. Not that January is ever an easy month for them of course. I can understand why Whitty would want to minimise the burden on his staff but ultimately it is not for the government to prioritise the staff of the health service above everything else. It is this I suspect that might explain the ‘enthusiasm’ for stringent control measures right now.
One other thing. Dr John Campbell made the point yesterday that hospital staff can be a rather superstitious bunch. Don’t say things are going quite well or better than expected for fear of tempting fate. Sports fans will be familiar with the curse of the commentator, say some is batting really well he’s never getting out, or such and such never serves a double fault and you know what is likely to happen next. Well maybe not but people avoid doing it anyway. I imagine that the pandemic has taken it’s toll on all the government’s advisers. I can understand why if you think you have continually been surprised on the downside with regards to covid it would be difficult to accept any good news that comes along. Omicron looks less severe? Let’s not get our hopes up or tempt fate. There’s a lot of shame (shaming?) in false optimism that gets corrected by events so it’s easier to focus on the negatives. I’ll risk it and be cautiously optimistic.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/dec/19/five-ice-age-mammoths-unearthed-in-cotswolds-after-220000-years
Nothing like the first AZ dose but I'm pretty useless today.
It would be better for them to admit they don't know than to waste time and on incorrect and highly damaging guesswork.
Or do you actually think it's better to use lies that cause harm than to admit ignorance or use past experience (which these models do not) as a guide? Because if so you're clearly not rational and not worth arguing with.
eg look at just how many people die every year. In Britain that is 600,000. 50,000 every month on average, but of course much more in the winter. How many are aware of this, or think about it? Vanishingly few. It is death.. It is too bleak. Turn on Strictly.
If we had more awareness of mortality we might be less frightened of it, and thus able to deal with things like pandemics a lot better
Doctor, what are the chances of me surviving this cancer? Dunno.
Weatherman, is it going to rain at the weekend? Dunno.
Epidemiologists, are we going to have 1 million people dying in the next few months? Dunno.
I shared the stuff he sent me with a Maths Prof of my aquaintance. Who said, essentially, that the first 5 pages of densely hand-written maths was "not bad" with prices of "quite brilliant". Beyond that it was progressively more and more batshit insane.
Finally!
Any sane person would think that's a million times better than the pack of lies they're feeding us now,
It was that the worst case models are based on us not imposing restrictions as a result of the expected outcome.
Since we always have imposed restrictions its impossible to know whether they would have been accurate had we not
Edit - I think it will be on the NHS app eventually but it hasn't been uploaded yet.
For the first time, technology has enabled Governments to adopt a different response to a pandemic. It is possible for hundreds of thousands of admin based staff to work in their own homes rather than like battery hens at banks of desks in some remote town or city.
Incredible medical advances have enabled life-saving vaccines to be produced not in years but months.
When we had the Hong Kong Flu in the late 60s, none of that existed. We just had to "keep buggering on" as the saying has it. Unquestionably, lives have been saved by the progress we have made and we are now able to put the priority of public health above the priority of economic wealth.
Yes, there have been deaths, both due to the virus and to the psychological and emotional impacts of the measures taken to prevent it. Had we done nothing in March 2020, would more lives have been lost? Unquestionably. However, this cannot and must not ignore the hidden "costs" of the virus which aren't so much the lost businesses, bad though it is but the suicides and the deaths by abuse (whether physical or psychological) or the deaths of those who couldn't get the treatment they needed for other conditions.
Even now, we witter on about data models - the biggest risk group for Omicron isn't as much the unvaccinated but those with other health problems such as those in hospital.
He did describe in simple, clear detail, the stages that would occur. Because that he had information for. In great detail, backed by peer review publications (I asked).
Pack of lies? You sound a bit like a conspiracy theorist. You do realise that don't you?
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/burlington-vermont-defunded-police-force-s-happened-rcna8409
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_American_Way_of_Death
Daily
82,886
Last 7 days
547,606
The weekly figure is 187,126 (51.9%) higher than last week
This would suggest that Omicron was seeded in Demark about the same time as the UK and is spreading as quickly.
The Danish data is representative up to about 13 December, so there may be a difference between reported date and test date for the UK and Danish omicron data.
And surely you know what assumptions are being disputed, unless you've not actually been reading the comments of those you've been criticising?
And yes, I prefer honest admissions of ignorance. Far better than the terrible damage these consistently failed models are doing.
You probably don't know philosophy but Aristotle once said there was only form of knowledge worth having and that was the knowledge of your own ignorance. These people don't have it, and clearly, nor do you.
As for your abuse, you're showing your true colours. You are just a nasty troll. You have so far said nothing worthwhile or helpful. You have abused multiple posters, including a highly offensive rewrite of one poster's name. You have deliberately made false statements and done so for no other reason than to cause trouble.
@PBModerator you might want to take a look at this one too. Much cleverer than the last troll but not much pleasanter.
Highest Boosters to date: 904,958 (today)
Nearest estimate: @Richard_Nabavi (896,322)
Next nearest: @Nigelb (925,001)
Eliminated entries:
@Endillion 525,600
@MightyAlex 700,000
@Cyclefree 723,527
@Eabhal 825,000
@carnyx 854,217
Seriously?
https://twitter.com/tobyperkinsmp/status/1472544244728582144/photo/1
But some patients might want to really know.. so they can plan things etc.
(edit- this is possibly caused by the decline of religion, but could also be the rise of the belief in progress as a religion)
The 600k deaths is interesting. I pointed out earlier that the 2020 figure was not out sync with historical averages. I suspect it will be the same for 2021. So with Covid, we will have just moved in to a biosurveillance state, at unthinkably great economic cost, to prevent avoidable deaths. The latest Omicron panic indicates that things will not go back to normal, and that the Covid era is a paradigm shift in how we deal with disease.
https://youtu.be/rn8IRqQfhaI?t=93
At least one - Michie - is a professed communist, who admits her desire for a reordered society with greater state control. so she's doggy. Kick her out immediately
Of the rest, who knows. I do believe that some of iSage are getting off on the fame. Someone like Pagel is building an entire media career out of alarmism. She now has 175,000 followers and is an important influencer, writes for the papers. Etc. Before Covid she probably had 9 followers. An obscure scientist doing obscure science. Now she is famous and probably making money. None of that would have happened if her tweets had been measured and her predictions on the modest side, rather than scary and clickbaity
As for the others, there might be further explanations. Groupthink, for a start. Also a tendency to value healthcare above all else in the medics. Plus a desire to protect the NHS. Along with an inability to understand wider social costs?
Some of them strike me as actually quite dim. Remember Van Tam and his mask advice. Likewise Harries. Simply over-promoted time-servers? I have never met them so who knows.
Do you not actually realise how stupid that comment sounds? I mean - really! 'They might want to know?' Well the only way to know would be to commit fecking suicide on an appointed day!
Yes, there’ll be local outbreaks here and there, where by some accident there are clumps of unvaccinated and/or uninfected people, but the virus will add itself to the collection of winter viruses that come round every year and carry off not insignificant numbers, and likely winter flu deaths may double or treble for a few years to come. And people will take getting their annual jab a lot more seriously.
But by next summer the idea that the news agenda and public policy in every nation is focused on covid as the number one threat should be gone. There’ll be a potential dividend for the countries that come to terms with this earliest.
Just as many people struggled with the idea that life was about to dramatically change, when the virus first appeared in the news at the turn of 2019/20, so we find it hard to imagine that, pretty soon, it will be gone as a newsworthy phenomenon. Yet both are clear if you look back to the history of 1918-19.
In the meantime, politicians and health experts are understandably keen to avoid a Bergamo scenario unfolding over the next few weeks. Which is fair enough, and we should all do what we can to try and catch the virus next year rather than this.
As I said yesterday - the interesting thing is that a whole set of Tory MPs are working out how to remove Boris in a way that means he actually goes...