Denmark has also slowed, in the last couple of days
Is this the first glimmer of hope? Is it going to do here what it did in Gauteng? Just fall back inexplicably?
Probably not - but London has seen a drop in cases which could reflect modified behaviour - that's our canary in the coal mine.
Guanteng cases are now barely more than half the peak. They've fallen that far in a week.
And bear in mind that Omicron cases were basically zero there just 30 days ago.
Now, that could be that it's all modified behaviour (but if it is modified behaviour, that tells you that lockdowns do work against Omicron, but that's another story). But I suspect it is mostly because it simply burns through the vulnerable very quickly.
Hospitalisations remain ok. If Guanteng was going to have a massive problem, then - unless there is an unusually long incubation period for Omicron - it's going to be seen in the next seven days.
I'm struggling to see why we would expect the UK to be much worse hit than South Africa. Sure, we're older, and we have less immunity conferred by infection. But we're older because we're healthier - South African life expectancy is in the mid-60s. And it's not like the UK doesn't have plenty of infection conferred immunity. Heck, it's got no shortage of people who've been treble jabbed and infected. It also doesn't have a major HIV/AIDS problem, a creaky health service, and both malnutrition and obesity issues.
If London hospitalizations don't start to really move in the next week, then I think we can probably all breath a big sigh of relief. Based on actual real world evidence of hundreds of thousands of South Africans, Omicron does not seem to hospitalize or kill at the same rates as previous variants.
I'm still worried about what my friend said about natural immunity having better properties to fight off Omicron than two dose vaccine immunity. That makes UK to SA comparisons invalid because the majority of their herd immunity is natural while ours is two dose. If we'd done 20m more boosters I'd have the same view as you do, however.
A hard lockdown will apply in the Netherlands from 5 a.m. tomorrow morning. Sources in The Hague confirm that the cabinet is adopting the advice of the Outbreak Management Team to close as many sectors as possible. In any case, the new measures will remain in force until January 14.
It was already clear that the OMT and the cabinet are very concerned about the rapid spread of the omikron variant of the coronavirus.
The experts advise closing almost everything: only essential shops such as supermarkets and pharmacies should remain open, sources in The Hague confirmed yesterday. The cabinet held emergency consultations this afternoon and has reportedly adopted the advice for the hard lockdown.
This means that the catering industry, non-essential shops and the sports and culture sector will have to close again. Pickup at shops and catering would remain possible. As far as the experts are concerned, all secondary schools and other educational institutions must also close. Primary schools have already closed early for the Christmas holidays.
'Four people at Christmas' The group size outside is reduced to a maximum of 2 people. A maximum of 2 visitors should also be allowed inside. Reportedly there will be an exception for Christmas: then 4 visitors are welcome. This exception would not apply to New Year's Eve.
The new measures will be explained in a press conference at 7 pm.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.
Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.
Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."
And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"
Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
That would be a very funny comment, if it wasn't true...
Opposite - it isn't true but it IS quite witty.
No it is funny because it is true. All too fucking true
It isn't. The pandemic here has not been like that at all. There's no great history of the govt announcing a lockdown, saying it's only going to be short but then it ends up long. It's becoming a little trope on here, people are just repeating it to each other and reinforcing what they've each got in their head, and what they've got in their head is (on this point) irrational and driven by fear of 22 being like 21 when just 2 weeks ago we thought we were near the end. I don't like being Mr Doctor - leave that to you and Topping - but this is what's going on, no question.
South Africa cases down nationally, down 60% in Joberg, number currently in hospital down (yes, lags, but it's the first time it hasn't rise by 300+ in several days.
Positivity rate down nationally for 3rd day in a row - looks like their actual infections peaked at least a week ago.
Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.
They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.
It was a stupid target
The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.
If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.
Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.
Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.
You partisanship some times is way OTT.
Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
In this specific instance it isn't reasonable to expect a government to overturn the decision of an independent medical advisory committee. No sensible politician would, otherwise you get into Trump territory of advising bleach and giving anti-vaxxer massive amounts of ammunition.
I have spent the past 2 years consistently pointing out the dumb shit the government have done time and time again. Go and check my 60k posts, there are absolutely loads of posts saying, FFS Boris has bottled a lockdown, he is leaving it too late. I was also massively critical of the idea of the tier system. I said we should have had border restrictions straight away during March 2020....I advocated for the sort of scheme Australia have employed....I said the government needed to kick SAGE up the arse in the summer and have them actually making a plan, when in fact they didn't meet for 2 months...
I could go on and on and on.
Agreed. The truth is, we don't know how bad Omicron will be. With vaccines the landing point for hospitalisations and serious illness is likely to be between somewhat better than Delta without vaccines and somewhat worse. That's what serious and informed people investigating this are coming up with, not all of whom can be dismissed because they don't accord with our prejudices.
If we collectively think we are not prepared to do another lockdown and will take whatever Omicron throws at us, that's a valid decision to make. But let's not say, we're not doing another lockdown, and then do it anyway as the hospital system buckles under the strain.
But the totally INFURIATING thing is that UKG has made virtually no attempt to punish, tax or chide the antivaxxers into getting the jab. They are the reason we are back in the shit. Look at @foxy's post today - every Covid victim in his ICU is unvaxxed
WHY is the government so totally spineless on this issue? Fear of being seen as racist? Fear of the "libertarian lobby"?
Before they make my life miserable, and condemn my kids to more damaged mental health, perhaps the fucking government could tackle the people who are causing all this shit, rather than jailing absolutely everyone
I like the idea of a COVID NHS tax at 1% per year to help the NHS pay for COVID care which is refunded to people when they reach fully vaccinated status. That would get loads of people in the door as getting the vaccine is being linked to helping the NHS, lots of people still haven't made that connection.
I suspect quite a few of the unvaxxed aren't paying tax... including children of course.
The real answer is make it hard to go places / do things. Restrict the unvaccinated* as you would smokers, with a few exceptions (hospitals, schools, can't think on many others tbh).
It's going to happen eventually anyway, so why delay?
(*With an exemption cert for thos that can't be vaccinated of course.)
Because it won't help. The most likely unvaccinated person who might end up in hospital is going to be a 60-70 year old South Asian Muslim who doesn't drink, doesn't smoke and doesn't go to the pub, theatre, non-Halal restaurants, shops at the local Asian shop run by one of his mates who also doesn't smoke, doesn't drink, doesn't go to the pub, theatre or non-Halal restaurants.
Vaccine passports might get a few extra under 40s to get vaccinated, sure, but that's not going to change the healthcare situation. They will do precisely zero to get those over 60s who are unvaccinated into the funnel. The unvaccinated in these cohorts will not be inconvenienced by them because nowhere they go need them or will bother implementing them.
Vaccine passports are another one of those "let's look like we're doing something" measures. A tax at least raises some money.
Do you have some facts to support that frankly obnoxious "South Asian Muslim" assertion ?
I ask because the latest ICNARC report shows that 74% of patients admitted to ICU with Covid since May 2021 have been white. The ratios (rounded) are: White 74% Mixed 2% Asian 11% Black 8% Other 6%
So yes, asian and black people are over represented but not massivley so. And consider also the wealth/deprivation breakdown. ICU covid patients are 3 times more likely to be from the most deprived quitile than from the least deprived.
I had a South Asia neighbour for 8 years. He smoked and drank, but he drew the line at bacon/pork
Black people making up 8% is astonishing. They are what, 3% of the population?
Actually I'd have thought it'd have been more given that they are much poorer, in worse health generally and much less likely to be vaccinated.
They aren't that much poorer compared to Somalis or Bangladeshis etc. Are they in worse health? I always though being fit was a big thing among black men. Gyms and football pitches in London always seem to be disproportionately black guys.
Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.
They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.
It was a stupid target
The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.
If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.
Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.
Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.
You partisanship some times is way OTT.
Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
In this specific instance it isn't reasonable to expect a government to overturn the decision of an independent medical advisory committee. No sensible politician would, otherwise you get into Trump territory of advising bleach and giving anti-vaxxer massive amounts of ammunition.
I have spent the past 2 years consistently pointing out the dumb shit the government have done time and time again. Go and check my 60k posts, there are absolutely loads of posts saying, FFS Boris has bottled a lockdown, he is leaving it too late. I was also massively critical of the idea of the tier system. I said we should have had border restrictions straight away during March 2020....I advocated for the sort of scheme Australia have employed....I said the government needed to kick SAGE up the arse in the summer and have them actually making a plan, when in fact they didn't meet for 2 months...
I could go on and on and on.
Agreed. The truth is, we don't know how bad Omicron will be. With vaccines the landing point for hospitalisations and serious illness is likely to be between somewhat better than Delta without vaccines and somewhat worse. That's what serious and informed people investigating this are coming up with, not all of whom can be dismissed because they don't accord with our prejudices.
If we collectively think we are not prepared to do another lockdown and will take whatever Omicron throws at us, that's a valid decision to make. But let's not say, we're not doing another lockdown, and then do it anyway as the hospital system buckles under the strain.
But the totally INFURIATING thing is that UKG has made virtually no attempt to punish, tax or chide the antivaxxers into getting the jab. They are the reason we are back in the shit. Look at @foxy's post today - every Covid victim in his ICU is unvaxxed
WHY is the government so totally spineless on this issue? Fear of being seen as racist? Fear of the "libertarian lobby"?
Before they make my life miserable, and condemn my kids to more damaged mental health, perhaps the fucking government could tackle the people who are causing all this shit, rather than jailing absolutely everyone
This is the smartest thing you've said on COVID recently. Governments sooner or later are going to have to be a lot tougher on the anti-vaxxers. One obvious thing to do is to deprioritize anti-vaxxers for NHS treatment.
I agree, but not your last sentence. That would be a slippery slope imo. (Next exclude, addicts, then those who caused their own injuries,... Where do you stop?)
Denying unvaxed Covid suffers medical care is just not going to happen. It's an utterly pointless suggestion.
Being in ICU is punishment.
Anyone who thinks otherwise has never seen the inside of an ICU. People who go in there have a very, very high risk of coming out dead and the survivors often have flashbacks and PTSD
ICU is no featherbedded picnic. It is the last-chance saloon for the nearly dead.
The issue is, while they're in there because of their stupidity and selfishness some totally innocent person who was involved in a car accident can't have that ICU bed which gives them their one chance of survival.
And that's more than a bit off.
I understand that. I am just saying that those who say "Let the unvaxxed suffer, the b*st*rds" seem to imply that ICU is some sort of health-spa.
Mr Johnson on the Parthenon Marbles in the British Museum (albeit under the aegis of the Oxford Union in 1986):
'“The Elgin marbles should leave this northern whisky-drinking guilt-culture, and be displayed where they belong: in a country of bright sunshine and the landscape of Achilles, ‘the shadowy mountains and the echoing sea,’” he wrote in the article, republished by the Greek daily, Ta Nea, on Saturday.
“They will be housed in a new museum a few hundred yards from the Acropolis. They will be meticulously cared for. They will not, as they were in the British Museum in 1938, be severely damaged by manic washerwomen scrubbing them with copper brushes.”'
A hard lockdown will apply in the Netherlands from 5 a.m. tomorrow morning. Sources in The Hague confirm that the cabinet is adopting the advice of the Outbreak Management Team to close as many sectors as possible. In any case, the new measures will remain in force until January 14.
It was already clear that the OMT and the cabinet are very concerned about the rapid spread of the omikron variant of the coronavirus.
The experts advise closing almost everything: only essential shops such as supermarkets and pharmacies should remain open, sources in The Hague confirmed yesterday. The cabinet held emergency consultations this afternoon and has reportedly adopted the advice for the hard lockdown.
This means that the catering industry, non-essential shops and the sports and culture sector will have to close again. Pickup at shops and catering would remain possible. As far as the experts are concerned, all secondary schools and other educational institutions must also close. Primary schools have already closed early for the Christmas holidays.
'Four people at Christmas' The group size outside is reduced to a maximum of 2 people. A maximum of 2 visitors should also be allowed inside. Reportedly there will be an exception for Christmas: then 4 visitors are welcome. This exception would not apply to New Year's Eve.
The new measures will be explained in a press conference at 7 pm.
Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.
They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.
It was a stupid target
The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.
If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.
Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.
Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.
You partisanship some times is way OTT.
Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
In this specific instance it isn't reasonable to expect a government to overturn the decision of an independent medical advisory committee. No sensible politician would, otherwise you get into Trump territory of advising bleach and giving anti-vaxxer massive amounts of ammunition.
I have spent the past 2 years consistently pointing out the dumb shit the government have done time and time again. Go and check my 60k posts, there are absolutely loads of posts saying, FFS Boris has bottled a lockdown, he is leaving it too late. I was also massively critical of the idea of the tier system. I said we should have had border restrictions straight away during March 2020....I advocated for the sort of scheme Australia have employed....I said the government needed to kick SAGE up the arse in the summer and have them actually making a plan, when in fact they didn't meet for 2 months...
I could go on and on and on.
Agreed. The truth is, we don't know how bad Omicron will be. With vaccines the landing point for hospitalisations and serious illness is likely to be between somewhat better than Delta without vaccines and somewhat worse. That's what serious and informed people investigating this are coming up with, not all of whom can be dismissed because they don't accord with our prejudices.
If we collectively think we are not prepared to do another lockdown and will take whatever Omicron throws at us, that's a valid decision to make. But let's not say, we're not doing another lockdown, and then do it anyway as the hospital system buckles under the strain.
But the totally INFURIATING thing is that UKG has made virtually no attempt to punish, tax or chide the antivaxxers into getting the jab. They are the reason we are back in the shit. Look at @foxy's post today - every Covid victim in his ICU is unvaxxed
WHY is the government so totally spineless on this issue? Fear of being seen as racist? Fear of the "libertarian lobby"?
Before they make my life miserable, and condemn my kids to more damaged mental health, perhaps the fucking government could tackle the people who are causing all this shit, rather than jailing absolutely everyone
This is the smartest thing you've said on COVID recently. Governments sooner or later are going to have to be a lot tougher on the anti-vaxxers. One obvious thing to do is to deprioritize anti-vaxxers for NHS treatment.
I agree, but not your last sentence. That would be a slippery slope imo. (Next exclude, addicts, then those who caused their own injuries,... Where do you stop?)
Denying unvaxed Covid suffers medical care is just not going to happen. It's an utterly pointless suggestion.
Being in ICU is punishment.
Anyone who thinks otherwise has never seen the inside of an ICU. People who go in there have a very, very high risk of coming out dead and the survivors often have flashbacks and PTSD
ICU is no featherbedded picnic. It is the last-chance saloon for the nearly dead.
A hard lockdown will apply in the Netherlands from 5 a.m. tomorrow morning. Sources in The Hague confirm that the cabinet is adopting the advice of the Outbreak Management Team to close as many sectors as possible. In any case, the new measures will remain in force until January 14.
It was already clear that the OMT and the cabinet are very concerned about the rapid spread of the omikron variant of the coronavirus.
The experts advise closing almost everything: only essential shops such as supermarkets and pharmacies should remain open, sources in The Hague confirmed yesterday. The cabinet held emergency consultations this afternoon and has reportedly adopted the advice for the hard lockdown.
This means that the catering industry, non-essential shops and the sports and culture sector will have to close again. Pickup at shops and catering would remain possible. As far as the experts are concerned, all secondary schools and other educational institutions must also close. Primary schools have already closed early for the Christmas holidays.
'Four people at Christmas' The group size outside is reduced to a maximum of 2 people. A maximum of 2 visitors should also be allowed inside. Reportedly there will be an exception for Christmas: then 4 visitors are welcome. This exception would not apply to New Year's Eve.
The new measures will be explained in a press conference at 7 pm.
A hard lockdown will apply in the Netherlands from 5 a.m. tomorrow morning. Sources in The Hague confirm that the cabinet is adopting the advice of the Outbreak Management Team to close as many sectors as possible. In any case, the new measures will remain in force until January 14.
It was already clear that the OMT and the cabinet are very concerned about the rapid spread of the omikron variant of the coronavirus.
The experts advise closing almost everything: only essential shops such as supermarkets and pharmacies should remain open, sources in The Hague confirmed yesterday. The cabinet held emergency consultations this afternoon and has reportedly adopted the advice for the hard lockdown.
This means that the catering industry, non-essential shops and the sports and culture sector will have to close again. Pickup at shops and catering would remain possible. As far as the experts are concerned, all secondary schools and other educational institutions must also close. Primary schools have already closed early for the Christmas holidays.
'Four people at Christmas' The group size outside is reduced to a maximum of 2 people. A maximum of 2 visitors should also be allowed inside. Reportedly there will be an exception for Christmas: then 4 visitors are welcome. This exception would not apply to New Year's Eve.
The new measures will be explained in a press conference at 7 pm.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.
Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.
Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."
And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"
Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
That would be a very funny comment, if it wasn't true...
Opposite - it isn't true but it IS quite witty.
No it is funny because it is true. All too fucking true
It isn't. The pandemic here has not been like that at all. There's no great history of the govt announcing a lockdown, saying it's only going to be short but then it ends up long. It's becoming a little trope on here, people are just repeating it to each other and reinforcing what they've each got in their head, and what they've got in their head is (on this point) irrational and driven by fear of 22 being like 21 when just 2 weeks ago we thought we were near the end. I don't like being Mr Doctor - leave that to you and Topping - but this is what's going on, no question.
You're wrong on this one. There is absolutely a history in the UK of the government proposing a short lockdown, a circuit breaker, a road map, you name it, and then failing to deliver on their "release dates"
This is not a trick of the mind. Here's just one example.
"Freedom Day’ for England pushed back 4 weeks to July 19
"LONDON (AP) — British Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed Monday that the next planned relaxation of coronavirus restrictions in England will be delayed by four weeks, until July 19, a decision he said will save thousands of lives as the government speeds up its vaccination drive."
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.
Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.
Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."
And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"
Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
Why would they present a 9 week lockdown as only being for 2 weeks?
Because when the metrics don’t improve after two weeks, it gets extended. Then when metrics don’t improve after four weeks...
They would be crazy to present a lockdown they think is likely to last 2 months as being only for 2 weeks. Makes no sense on any level. It's just not a rational fear imo.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.
Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.
Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."
And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"
Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
Why would they present a 9 week lockdown as only being for 2 weeks?
Because when the metrics don’t improve after two weeks, it gets extended. Then when metrics don’t improve after four weeks...
They would be crazy to present a lockdown they think is likely to last 2 months as being only for 2 weeks. Makes no sense on any level. It's just not a rational fear imo.
It makes a lot of sense, saying "it will only be two weeks, nothing to worry about" is a lot easier to sell than "we're not sure when this will end, sorry you're going to be locked up indefinitely".
Denmark has also slowed, in the last couple of days
Is this the first glimmer of hope? Is it going to do here what it did in Gauteng? Just fall back inexplicably?
Probably not - but London has seen a drop in cases which could reflect modified behaviour - that's our canary in the coal mine.
Guanteng cases are now barely more than half the peak. They've fallen that far in a week.
And bear in mind that Omicron cases were basically zero there just 30 days ago.
Now, that could be that it's all modified behaviour (but if it is modified behaviour, that tells you that lockdowns do work against Omicron, but that's another story). But I suspect it is mostly because it simply burns through the vulnerable very quickly.
Hospitalisations remain ok. If Guanteng was going to have a massive problem, then - unless there is an unusually long incubation period for Omicron - it's going to be seen in the next seven days.
I'm struggling to see why we would expect the UK to be much worse hit than South Africa. Sure, we're older, and we have less immunity conferred by infection. But we're older because we're healthier - South African life expectancy is in the mid-60s. And it's not like the UK doesn't have plenty of infection conferred immunity. Heck, it's got no shortage of people who've been treble jabbed and infected. It also doesn't have a major HIV/AIDS problem, a creaky health service, and both malnutrition and obesity issues.
If London hospitalizations don't start to really move in the next week, then I think we can probably all breath a big sigh of relief. Based on actual real world evidence of hundreds of thousands of South Africans, Omicron does not seem to hospitalize or kill at the same rates as previous variants.
I'm still worried about what my friend said about natural immunity having better properties to fight off Omicron than two dose vaccine immunity. That makes UK to SA comparisons invalid because the majority of their herd immunity is natural while ours is two dose. If we'd done 20m more boosters I'd have the same view as you do, however.
There's way more 3 dose than 2 dose in the UK now.
And the remaining 2 doses will mostly be in the lower vulnerability groups.
Plus also likely to have higher levels of previous infection.
Also, many thanks to the lazy bastards in the NHS who decided covid was no longer an emergency so they only needed to publish covid hospitalisations 5 days a week rather than 7 like before. Great when they're also campaigning to get a lockdown in over this weekend.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.
Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.
Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."
And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"
Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
Why would they present a 9 week lockdown as only being for 2 weeks?
These things have a habit of snowballing.
Besides, it's not only the period of harsh measures that's the problem, it's the months and months of slow crawl out of them as well.
2 week "circuit breakers" have failed everywhere they were tried. Repeatedly. Lockdowns that work last longer.
A hard lockdown will apply in the Netherlands from 5 a.m. tomorrow morning. Sources in The Hague confirm that the cabinet is adopting the advice of the Outbreak Management Team to close as many sectors as possible. In any case, the new measures will remain in force until January 14.
It was already clear that the OMT and the cabinet are very concerned about the rapid spread of the omikron variant of the coronavirus.
The experts advise closing almost everything: only essential shops such as supermarkets and pharmacies should remain open, sources in The Hague confirmed yesterday. The cabinet held emergency consultations this afternoon and has reportedly adopted the advice for the hard lockdown.
This means that the catering industry, non-essential shops and the sports and culture sector will have to close again. Pickup at shops and catering would remain possible. As far as the experts are concerned, all secondary schools and other educational institutions must also close. Primary schools have already closed early for the Christmas holidays.
'Four people at Christmas' The group size outside is reduced to a maximum of 2 people. A maximum of 2 visitors should also be allowed inside. Reportedly there will be an exception for Christmas: then 4 visitors are welcome. This exception would not apply to New Year's Eve.
The new measures will be explained in a press conference at 7 pm.
My daughter has just phoned to say they have cancelled all their outside social events with their friends until after Christmas and their friends have said they have done the same with immediate effect, and considering the wide circle of friends my daughter and her family have, this will be a disaster for the hospitality businesses in their area and as I said yesteday is de facto lockdown
Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.
They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.
It was a stupid target
The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.
If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.
Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.
Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.
You partisanship some times is way OTT.
Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
In this specific instance it isn't reasonable to expect a government to overturn the decision of an independent medical advisory committee. No sensible politician would, otherwise you get into Trump territory of advising bleach and giving anti-vaxxer massive amounts of ammunition.
I have spent the past 2 years consistently pointing out the dumb shit the government have done time and time again. Go and check my 60k posts, there are absolutely loads of posts saying, FFS Boris has bottled a lockdown, he is leaving it too late. I was also massively critical of the idea of the tier system. I said we should have had border restrictions straight away during March 2020....I advocated for the sort of scheme Australia have employed....I said the government needed to kick SAGE up the arse in the summer and have them actually making a plan, when in fact they didn't meet for 2 months...
I could go on and on and on.
Agreed. The truth is, we don't know how bad Omicron will be. With vaccines the landing point for hospitalisations and serious illness is likely to be between somewhat better than Delta without vaccines and somewhat worse. That's what serious and informed people investigating this are coming up with, not all of whom can be dismissed because they don't accord with our prejudices.
If we collectively think we are not prepared to do another lockdown and will take whatever Omicron throws at us, that's a valid decision to make. But let's not say, we're not doing another lockdown, and then do it anyway as the hospital system buckles under the strain.
But the totally INFURIATING thing is that UKG has made virtually no attempt to punish, tax or chide the antivaxxers into getting the jab. They are the reason we are back in the shit. Look at @foxy's post today - every Covid victim in his ICU is unvaxxed
WHY is the government so totally spineless on this issue? Fear of being seen as racist? Fear of the "libertarian lobby"?
Before they make my life miserable, and condemn my kids to more damaged mental health, perhaps the fucking government could tackle the people who are causing all this shit, rather than jailing absolutely everyone
I like the idea of a COVID NHS tax at 1% per year to help the NHS pay for COVID care which is refunded to people when they reach fully vaccinated status. That would get loads of people in the door as getting the vaccine is being linked to helping the NHS, lots of people still haven't made that connection.
That's got more going for it than most of the ideas I've heard to slap the unvaxed.
Thank @Philip_Thompson, it's his idea! I'd stick it something like 2.5% on all income, earned or unearned for all ages with no thresholds. Make it punitive and the refund amount gets bigger all the time so the incentive to get vaxxed gets bigger too.
Ah yes. And I did tell him that, in fact. Life throws up surprises sometimes.
Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.
They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.
It was a stupid target
The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.
If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.
Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.
Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.
You partisanship some times is way OTT.
Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
In this specific instance it isn't reasonable to expect a government to overturn the decision of an independent medical advisory committee. No sensible politician would, otherwise you get into Trump territory of advising bleach and giving anti-vaxxer massive amounts of ammunition.
I have spent the past 2 years consistently pointing out the dumb shit the government have done time and time again. Go and check my 60k posts, there are absolutely loads of posts saying, FFS Boris has bottled a lockdown, he is leaving it too late. I was also massively critical of the idea of the tier system. I said we should have had border restrictions straight away during March 2020....I advocated for the sort of scheme Australia have employed....I said the government needed to kick SAGE up the arse in the summer and have them actually making a plan, when in fact they didn't meet for 2 months...
I could go on and on and on.
Agreed. The truth is, we don't know how bad Omicron will be. With vaccines the landing point for hospitalisations and serious illness is likely to be between somewhat better than Delta without vaccines and somewhat worse. That's what serious and informed people investigating this are coming up with, not all of whom can be dismissed because they don't accord with our prejudices.
If we collectively think we are not prepared to do another lockdown and will take whatever Omicron throws at us, that's a valid decision to make. But let's not say, we're not doing another lockdown, and then do it anyway as the hospital system buckles under the strain.
But the totally INFURIATING thing is that UKG has made virtually no attempt to punish, tax or chide the antivaxxers into getting the jab. They are the reason we are back in the shit. Look at @foxy's post today - every Covid victim in his ICU is unvaxxed
WHY is the government so totally spineless on this issue? Fear of being seen as racist? Fear of the "libertarian lobby"?
Before they make my life miserable, and condemn my kids to more damaged mental health, perhaps the fucking government could tackle the people who are causing all this shit, rather than jailing absolutely everyone
This is the smartest thing you've said on COVID recently. Governments sooner or later are going to have to be a lot tougher on the anti-vaxxers. One obvious thing to do is to deprioritize anti-vaxxers for NHS treatment.
I agree, but not your last sentence. That would be a slippery slope imo. (Next exclude, addicts, then those who caused their own injuries,... Where do you stop?)
Denying unvaxed Covid suffers medical care is just not going to happen. It's an utterly pointless suggestion.
Being in ICU is punishment.
Anyone who thinks otherwise has never seen the inside of an ICU. People who go in there have a very, very high risk of coming out dead and the survivors often have flashbacks and PTSD
ICU is no featherbedded picnic. It is the last-chance saloon for the nearly dead.
I thankfully haven't but yes I know it is.
Just to be clear, I have not been an ICU patient, but two people in my family were ICU patients. One had recurring nightmares for 5 years until his death, the other has had a note put on her medical records that basically states "This woman does not want ICU treatment". She still wakes up in cold sweats occasionally thinking that she is still in there.
A hard lockdown will apply in the Netherlands from 5 a.m. tomorrow morning. Sources in The Hague confirm that the cabinet is adopting the advice of the Outbreak Management Team to close as many sectors as possible. In any case, the new measures will remain in force until January 14.
It was already clear that the OMT and the cabinet are very concerned about the rapid spread of the omikron variant of the coronavirus.
The experts advise closing almost everything: only essential shops such as supermarkets and pharmacies should remain open, sources in The Hague confirmed yesterday. The cabinet held emergency consultations this afternoon and has reportedly adopted the advice for the hard lockdown.
This means that the catering industry, non-essential shops and the sports and culture sector will have to close again. Pickup at shops and catering would remain possible. As far as the experts are concerned, all secondary schools and other educational institutions must also close. Primary schools have already closed early for the Christmas holidays.
'Four people at Christmas' The group size outside is reduced to a maximum of 2 people. A maximum of 2 visitors should also be allowed inside. Reportedly there will be an exception for Christmas: then 4 visitors are welcome. This exception would not apply to New Year's Eve.
The new measures will be explained in a press conference at 7 pm.
Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.
They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.
It was a stupid target
The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.
If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.
Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.
Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.
You partisanship some times is way OTT.
Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
In this specific instance it isn't reasonable to expect a government to overturn the decision of an independent medical advisory committee. No sensible politician would, otherwise you get into Trump territory of advising bleach and giving anti-vaxxer massive amounts of ammunition.
I have spent the past 2 years consistently pointing out the dumb shit the government have done time and time again. Go and check my 60k posts, there are absolutely loads of posts saying, FFS Boris has bottled a lockdown, he is leaving it too late. I was also massively critical of the idea of the tier system. I said we should have had border restrictions straight away during March 2020....I advocated for the sort of scheme Australia have employed....I said the government needed to kick SAGE up the arse in the summer and have them actually making a plan, when in fact they didn't meet for 2 months...
I could go on and on and on.
Agreed. The truth is, we don't know how bad Omicron will be. With vaccines the landing point for hospitalisations and serious illness is likely to be between somewhat better than Delta without vaccines and somewhat worse. That's what serious and informed people investigating this are coming up with, not all of whom can be dismissed because they don't accord with our prejudices.
If we collectively think we are not prepared to do another lockdown and will take whatever Omicron throws at us, that's a valid decision to make. But let's not say, we're not doing another lockdown, and then do it anyway as the hospital system buckles under the strain.
But the totally INFURIATING thing is that UKG has made virtually no attempt to punish, tax or chide the antivaxxers into getting the jab. They are the reason we are back in the shit. Look at @foxy's post today - every Covid victim in his ICU is unvaxxed
WHY is the government so totally spineless on this issue? Fear of being seen as racist? Fear of the "libertarian lobby"?
Before they make my life miserable, and condemn my kids to more damaged mental health, perhaps the fucking government could tackle the people who are causing all this shit, rather than jailing absolutely everyone
It's a very good point. As a principle I think people have an absolute right to determine what goes in their bodies. But there is a big price to pay for some not doing so. Put it another way that right doesn't extend to infecting others or in certain cases getting free treatment.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.
Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.
Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."
And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"
Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
Why would they present a 9 week lockdown as only being for 2 weeks?
Because when the metrics don’t improve after two weeks, it gets extended. Then when metrics don’t improve after four weeks...
They would be crazy to present a lockdown they think is likely to last 2 months as being only for 2 weeks. Makes no sense on any level. It's just not a rational fear imo.
It makes a lot of sense, saying "it will only be two weeks, nothing to worry about" is a lot easier to sell than "we're not sure when this will end, sorry you're going to be locked up indefinitely".
Yes, quite. That's what they do, hence the mistrust
Imagine if they'd sat us down at the beginning of lockdown 3 and said, Oh this will be all winter, you won't get out properly until May, maybe June, fuck it we don't know, hahaha
The psychological resistance would have been massive. You might have seen riots, you might have seen suicides. So, governments generally don't do this (perhaps understandably).
In Britain the technique is normally announce a short-ish lockdown (maybe call it something neat and friendy like a circuit-breaker! -rather than National Gulag Month). You promise it will be reviewed after 2 or 3 weeks, and you hope to unlockdown, then the 3 weeks come up, oops, data still bad, sorry everyone, and on we go...
Just wondering, if you oppose vaccine passports do you also oppose ID to vote?
If you said scrap vaccine passports and no voter ID, I’d take that. Fraud only really affects local elections and I don’t care all that much about Tower Hamlets anyway.
For all people looking at the Gauteng data as gospel…
Tulio de Oliveira @Tuliodna · 22h I would like to ask one to be careful on not interpretation of Gauteng data from middle December. The reason is that Gauteng get quite empty and 100,000s of migrant workers and holiday makers leave. Tip, get a look at Beta wave at similar time last year in Gauteng
Just wondering, if you oppose vaccine passports do you also oppose ID to vote?
The easy way to know it's a false equivalence is to reverse the question. Left wing vaccine passport proponents will still hate voter ID, and that's fair enough as they're different questions.
For all people looking at the Gauteng data as gospel…
Tulio de Oliveira @Tuliodna · 22h I would like to ask one to be careful on not interpretation of Gauteng data from middle December. The reason is that Gauteng get quite empty and 100,000s of migrant workers and holiday makers leave. Tip, get a look at Beta wave at similar time last year in Gauteng
Presumably that's why the positivity rate is falling nationwide...
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.
Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.
Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."
And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"
Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
Why would they present a 9 week lockdown as only being for 2 weeks?
These things have a habit of snowballing.
Besides, it's not only the period of harsh measures that's the problem, it's the months and months of slow crawl out of them as well.
Covid lockdowns are just not very like snowballs.
But, yes, look, I get the fears. I'm just pointing out where I think they aren't rational.
For all people looking at the Gauteng data as gospel…
Tulio de Oliveira @Tuliodna · 22h I would like to ask one to be careful on not interpretation of Gauteng data from middle December. The reason is that Gauteng get quite empty and 100,000s of migrant workers and holiday makers leave. Tip, get a look at Beta wave at similar time last year in Gauteng
Presumably that's why the positivity rate is falling nationwide...
Yes, lots of other data supporting the idea that omicron in SA just isn’t a big deal. Will it be the same for us? I think we will know in the next 7-10 days.
For all people looking at the Gauteng data as gospel…
Tulio de Oliveira @Tuliodna · 22h I would like to ask one to be careful on not interpretation of Gauteng data from middle December. The reason is that Gauteng get quite empty and 100,000s of migrant workers and holiday makers leave. Tip, get a look at Beta wave at similar time last year in Gauteng
Presumably that's why the positivity rate is falling nationwide...
Yes, lots of other data supporting the idea that omicron in SA just isn’t a big deal. Will it be the same for us? I think we will know in the next 7-10 days.
Now we've reached the point that no one with an independent thought in their body would register a positive test without going to hospital, we're going to enter a data dead zone in any case. The speed it peaked in south africa, really hard to believe there will be enough spread left for cases to rise materially once people leave the xmas cocoon in 10 days time.
Complete ducking farce of a process but I've got my booster.
Well done, long queue? My best mate had to wait 4 hours this morning but managed to get it done, this was Islington.
The medical centre I was booked at had been overwhelemed by walk ups. Rather the instantly turn them away they had tried to accommodate them which blew up their appointments. I was booked in for just past 3 and there was pretty much zero chance of me getting seen before 4. anging around in a queue in the bitterly cold was fine for me but the breaking point was when I discovered there was going to be a half hour wait inside the building!!!! (multiple exclamation marks used under advisement).
Fortunately we had been informed that a random doctor's surgery a 5 minutes drive away was doing walk ins and had no queue so I fucked off there and discovered here was a queue! Of one person! Who had been a couple of places ahead of me at the previous place and had also fucked off when they discovered there was going to be a half hour wait inside. Got stabbed within a couple of minutes of turning up.
I don't know exactly what happened at the first place but they clearly had been floored by the change in booster policy. Without Omicron I think they would have been fine but they didn't have the policies in place to cope with the free for all - I'd booked my appointment over a month previously in the before times.
Leaving a queue for a scheduled appointment to chance your arm at a walk in raised my anxiety levels considerably.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.
Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.
Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."
And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"
Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
That would be a very funny comment, if it wasn't true...
Opposite - it isn't true but it IS quite witty.
No it is funny because it is true. All too fucking true
It isn't. The pandemic here has not been like that at all. There's no great history of the govt announcing a lockdown, saying it's only going to be short but then it ends up long. It's becoming a little trope on here, people are just repeating it to each other and reinforcing what they've each got in their head, and what they've got in their head is (on this point) irrational and driven by fear of 22 being like 21 when just 2 weeks ago we thought we were near the end. I don't like being Mr Doctor - leave that to you and Topping - but this is what's going on, no question.
You're wrong on this one. There is absolutely a history in the UK of the government proposing a short lockdown, a circuit breaker, a road map, you name it, and then failing to deliver on their "release dates"
This is not a trick of the mind. Here's just one example.
"Freedom Day’ for England pushed back 4 weeks to July 19
"LONDON (AP) — British Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed Monday that the next planned relaxation of coronavirus restrictions in England will be delayed by four weeks, until July 19, a decision he said will save thousands of lives as the government speeds up its vaccination drive."
Yep, and that's pretty much it - the short delay to the very final step of unlocking after a long, phased and on time relaxation. This demonstrates my point well.
For all people looking at the Gauteng data as gospel…
Tulio de Oliveira @Tuliodna · 22h I would like to ask one to be careful on not interpretation of Gauteng data from middle December. The reason is that Gauteng get quite empty and 100,000s of migrant workers and holiday makers leave. Tip, get a look at Beta wave at similar time last year in Gauteng
44% of the population has not left in a week.
While a move in population may have had some effect it would be at the margins.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.
Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.
Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."
And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"
Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
Why would they present a 9 week lockdown as only being for 2 weeks?
These things have a habit of snowballing.
Besides, it's not only the period of harsh measures that's the problem, it's the months and months of slow crawl out of them as well.
Covid lockdowns are just not very like snowballs.
But, yes, look, I get the fears. I'm just pointing out where I think they aren't rational.
And I've shown that you are wrong. The UK government has consistently over-promised and under-delivered with its unlockdowns (just as it has done in so many other areas)
I've also explained why this is the case for many governments, not just ours. Tell people the truth - this could be months of living in an open jail - and they will go mad, and react very badly.
That's presumably because Primark doesn't sell online and s/he was so desperate to get stuff from there that they had to brave the plague. Alternatively, that's just diverse Brighton for you. You just wouldn't believe the outfits some folk wear down here, even in 'normal' times. A Hazmat suit is nothing.
Not sure if @jburnmurdoch has tweeted this yet but early stats on Covid admissions in London in his FT piece are reassuring:
111/169 new Covid +ve patients were not being treated primarily for Covid (proportion much higher than previous waves) 1/3
i.e. they incidentally tested positive after admission for other conditions and so level of additional pressure on NHS will be less than feared. Actual Covid admissions are currently tracking the managable Delta wave in July - not the much worse Alpha wave last Winter. 2/3
We still need to wait for more data as picture could change as cases are increasing in older age gps but this shows total/ actual Covid admissions could be lower than feared. We should know in a week and so should not bring in further restrictions based on worst-case scenarios. https://twitter.com/drraghibali/status/1472134530173702145?s=20
Patients with COVID have still got COVID - but they're being admitted with it not because of it.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.
Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.
Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."
And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"
Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
Why would they present a 9 week lockdown as only being for 2 weeks?
Because when the metrics don’t improve after two weeks, it gets extended. Then when metrics don’t improve after four weeks...
They would be crazy to present a lockdown they think is likely to last 2 months as being only for 2 weeks. Makes no sense on any level. It's just not a rational fear imo.
It makes a lot of sense, saying "it will only be two weeks, nothing to worry about" is a lot easier to sell than "we're not sure when this will end, sorry you're going to be locked up indefinitely".
But that wouldn't be the choice. They will have an idea how long it'll be needed. And if that's 2 months there is no way it make sense to pretend to the public it's only going to be 2 weeks. That'd be an utterly crazy thing to do.
For all people looking at the Gauteng data as gospel…
Tulio de Oliveira @Tuliodna · 22h I would like to ask one to be careful on not interpretation of Gauteng data from middle December. The reason is that Gauteng get quite empty and 100,000s of migrant workers and holiday makers leave. Tip, get a look at Beta wave at similar time last year in Gauteng
Let's hope this doesn't give today's Cabinet any ideas.
Like I said, most of this is irrelevant if schools are open.
They could take the other message, of course. If we're keeping schools open, why bother with anything else?
The answer, unfortunately, will be the Jim Hacker one - they want to look as if they're doing something. Unfortunately with this lot they usually end up looking as if they're trying to look as if they're trying to do something.
Where do you stand on remote lesrning? Is there more to come in making it smarter, and fairer across education as a whole, so there’s less of a drop off it it comes to closures? In first lock down, for some children it was via parents mobile phone. My concern is it just shows ’apartheid of the pocket’ across education system.
Do you see my point? Has last two years highlighted lessons learned and actions to be taken in terms of who has Laptops to aid education and who doesn’t?
Actually I backed 4 horses today, two had bad hair days, not in best of form, off the pace from early on and pulled up never really in it… just like the Tories in Shropshire North! 😆
You are not obliged to answer my question there Ydoethur, but I think I am asking the right person close to education, have you seen equality in opportunity when it comes to IT for remote learning - if not, what will it take to get there?
By the January 2021 lockdown, most of the technical wobbles had been sorted. Most kids had enough device and data access (via schools if necessary), most teachers had setups that worked. The Oak National Academy project worked well. Not perfectly, but well.
What has been exposed is all the stuff that only happens with a real pupil in the same physical space as a real teacher. The diligent kids have done OK academically- some probably better than expected. It's not been fun, but they've got on with it.
The trouble is that there's always a tail of underachievers who really need hard teacher stares to buckle down and do the damn work. That's been much harder to recreate online. And those who need the essay or exam crisis to motivate them have been stuffed.
Plus all the socialisation stuff that goes in in schools. And practical science- they're utterly useless at practical science.
Leaving a queue for a scheduled appointment to chance your arm at a walk in raised my anxiety levels considerably.
Mmm. I think if centres are fully booked they shouldn't also be trying to handle walkins -- it's always seemed odd to me that so many places do both at the same time and with the same queue. Otherwise there's no point having a booking system.
Not sure if @jburnmurdoch has tweeted this yet but early stats on Covid admissions in London in his FT piece are reassuring:
111/169 new Covid +ve patients were not being treated primarily for Covid (proportion much higher than previous waves) 1/3
i.e. they incidentally tested positive after admission for other conditions and so level of additional pressure on NHS will be less than feared. Actual Covid admissions are currently tracking the managable Delta wave in July - not the much worse Alpha wave last Winter. 2/3
We still need to wait for more data as picture could change as cases are increasing in older age gps but this shows total/ actual Covid admissions could be lower than feared. We should know in a week and so should not bring in further restrictions based on worst-case scenarios. https://twitter.com/drraghibali/status/1472134530173702145?s=20
Let's be blunt, it's another day of reassuring data and we're still waiting for any real world reason to flip out and panic.
If Boris didn't have scandals and failures to distract from, he would be proudly pointing out how much better off we are than last year and most other places.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.
Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.
Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."
And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"
Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
That would be a very funny comment, if it wasn't true...
Opposite - it isn't true but it IS quite witty.
No it is funny because it is true. All too fucking true
It isn't. The pandemic here has not been like that at all. There's no great history of the govt announcing a lockdown, saying it's only going to be short but then it ends up long. It's becoming a little trope on here, people are just repeating it to each other and reinforcing what they've each got in their head, and what they've got in their head is (on this point) irrational and driven by fear of 22 being like 21 when just 2 weeks ago we thought we were near the end. I don't like being Mr Doctor - leave that to you and Topping - but this is what's going on, no question.
You're wrong on this one. There is absolutely a history in the UK of the government proposing a short lockdown, a circuit breaker, a road map, you name it, and then failing to deliver on their "release dates"
This is not a trick of the mind. Here's just one example.
"Freedom Day’ for England pushed back 4 weeks to July 19
"LONDON (AP) — British Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed Monday that the next planned relaxation of coronavirus restrictions in England will be delayed by four weeks, until July 19, a decision he said will save thousands of lives as the government speeds up its vaccination drive."
Yep, and that's pretty much it - the short delay to the very final step of unlocking after a long, phased and on time relaxation. This demonstrates my point well.
Good grief. There are endless examples of the government doing this. Overpromising. Another:
"Coronavirus: UK 'can turn the tide' in the next 12 weeks, Boris Johnson says
"The PM "can see how" progress will be made against COVID-19, but can't be "certain" of a "downward slope" by the end of June."
Did we "turn the tide" against Covid in the summer of 2020, after just 12 weeks of stout British defiance? lol
"LONDON — Boris Johnson wants to save Christmas through mass testing — but his advisers are bracing for a long winter.
"The U.K. prime minister said Wednesday that new “simple, quick and scalable” tests involving saliva swabs and turning out results in just 20 minutes should become available “soon” and could be a game-changer, allowing those testing negative not to socially distance"
So number of boosters has stalled in the 800,000s per day and actually fell today… does this reflect a capacity constraint or is demand beginning to fall back after the opening-up-to-all at the beginning of the week… what more can the Government do to scare encourage more to do the right thing…
Not sure if @jburnmurdoch has tweeted this yet but early stats on Covid admissions in London in his FT piece are reassuring:
111/169 new Covid +ve patients were not being treated primarily for Covid (proportion much higher than previous waves) 1/3
i.e. they incidentally tested positive after admission for other conditions and so level of additional pressure on NHS will be less than feared. Actual Covid admissions are currently tracking the managable Delta wave in July - not the much worse Alpha wave last Winter. 2/3
We still need to wait for more data as picture could change as cases are increasing in older age gps but this shows total/ actual Covid admissions could be lower than feared. We should know in a week and so should not bring in further restrictions based on worst-case scenarios. https://twitter.com/drraghibali/status/1472134530173702145?s=20
Patients with COVID have still got COVID - but they're being admitted with it not because of it.
Yes, if 1/10 Londoners currently have COVID it means that 1/10 hospital admissions will be in the dash. This and the 28 day death stat both need fixing to actually require "because COVID" rather than including incidental cases. As I said yesterday, my mum will be a COVID admission because she's tested positive but she was there for an ear infection.
Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.
They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.
It was a stupid target
The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.
If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.
Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.
Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.
You partisanship some times is way OTT.
Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
In this specific instance it isn't reasonable to expect a government to overturn the decision of an independent medical advisory committee. No sensible politician would, otherwise you get into Trump territory of advising bleach and giving anti-vaxxer massive amounts of ammunition.
I have spent the past 2 years consistently pointing out the dumb shit the government have done time and time again. Go and check my 60k posts, there are absolutely loads of posts saying, FFS Boris has bottled a lockdown, he is leaving it too late. I was also massively critical of the idea of the tier system. I said we should have had border restrictions straight away during March 2020....I advocated for the sort of scheme Australia have employed....I said the government needed to kick SAGE up the arse in the summer and have them actually making a plan, when in fact they didn't meet for 2 months...
I could go on and on and on.
Agreed. The truth is, we don't know how bad Omicron will be. With vaccines the landing point for hospitalisations and serious illness is likely to be between somewhat better than Delta without vaccines and somewhat worse. That's what serious and informed people investigating this are coming up with, not all of whom can be dismissed because they don't accord with our prejudices.
If we collectively think we are not prepared to do another lockdown and will take whatever Omicron throws at us, that's a valid decision to make. But let's not say, we're not doing another lockdown, and then do it anyway as the hospital system buckles under the strain.
But the totally INFURIATING thing is that UKG has made virtually no attempt to punish, tax or chide the antivaxxers into getting the jab. They are the reason we are back in the shit. Look at @foxy's post today - every Covid victim in his ICU is unvaxxed
WHY is the government so totally spineless on this issue? Fear of being seen as racist? Fear of the "libertarian lobby"?
Before they make my life miserable, and condemn my kids to more damaged mental health, perhaps the fucking government could tackle the people who are causing all this shit, rather than jailing absolutely everyone
I like the idea of a COVID NHS tax at 1% per year to help the NHS pay for COVID care which is refunded to people when they reach fully vaccinated status. That would get loads of people in the door as getting the vaccine is being linked to helping the NHS, lots of people still haven't made that connection.
I suspect quite a few of the unvaxxed aren't paying tax... including children of course.
The real answer is make it hard to go places / do things. Restrict the unvaccinated* as you would smokers, with a few exceptions (hospitals, schools, can't think on many others tbh).
It's going to happen eventually anyway, so why delay?
(*With an exemption cert for thos that can't be vaccinated of course.)
Because it won't help. The most likely unvaccinated person who might end up in hospital is going to be a 60-70 year old South Asian Muslim who doesn't drink, doesn't smoke and doesn't go to the pub, theatre, non-Halal restaurants, shops at the local Asian shop run by one of his mates who also doesn't smoke, doesn't drink, doesn't go to the pub, theatre or non-Halal restaurants.
Vaccine passports might get a few extra under 40s to get vaccinated, sure, but that's not going to change the healthcare situation. They will do precisely zero to get those over 60s who are unvaccinated into the funnel. The unvaccinated in these cohorts will not be inconvenienced by them because nowhere they go need them or will bother implementing them.
Vaccine passports are another one of those "let's look like we're doing something" measures. A tax at least raises some money.
Yes, but as a few people point out there, if I go to the pub and I look under-age (obviously not now but back in the day), I was ID’d. No one said “you’re infringing on my civil liberties” or “it’s a disgrace”, you accepted it. No ID, no drink.
I suspect the howls of outrage from certain areas are because they realise they benefit from certain “loose” practices.
You'd be wrong but sort-of right in reverse. The reason photo ID for voting is proposed is that it was thought (I say "was" because some Tory analysts had a rethink after the red wall fell) to favour the blue team whose prosperous voters, by and large, already have photo ID whereas poorer left-leaning groups are less likely to own passports or driving licences. And there is no evidence of personation in British elections (outside Northern Ireland). There is voting fraud but largely around postal votes and not personation.
- Cases growing. In London, zooming upwards (See regional R numbers). Scotland is not so much of an outlier now. Much of the growth, is in the younger groups (see the England age numbers per 100K). For now. - Admissions - growing, but slowly. - Deaths - a very mixed bag, but seem to be flat or even falling. - Boosters - 16,112,304 left to go in England and Scotland.
Not sure if @jburnmurdoch has tweeted this yet but early stats on Covid admissions in London in his FT piece are reassuring:
111/169 new Covid +ve patients were not being treated primarily for Covid (proportion much higher than previous waves) 1/3
i.e. they incidentally tested positive after admission for other conditions and so level of additional pressure on NHS will be less than feared. Actual Covid admissions are currently tracking the managable Delta wave in July - not the much worse Alpha wave last Winter. 2/3
We still need to wait for more data as picture could change as cases are increasing in older age gps but this shows total/ actual Covid admissions could be lower than feared. We should know in a week and so should not bring in further restrictions based on worst-case scenarios. https://twitter.com/drraghibali/status/1472134530173702145?s=20
Patients with COVID have still got COVID - but they're being admitted with it not because of it.
Yes, if 1/10 Londoners currently have COVID it means that 1/10 hospital admissions will be in the dash. This and the 28 day death stat both need fixing to actually require "because COVID" rather than including incidental cases. As I said yesterday, my mum will be a COVID admission because she's tested positive but she was there for an ear infection.
Next Thursdays incidental admissions stats look like being a farce.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.
Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.
Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."
And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"
Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
Why would they present a 9 week lockdown as only being for 2 weeks?
These things have a habit of snowballing.
Besides, it's not only the period of harsh measures that's the problem, it's the months and months of slow crawl out of them as well.
Covid lockdowns are just not very like snowballs.
But, yes, look, I get the fears. I'm just pointing out where I think they aren't rational.
And I've shown that you are wrong. The UK government has consistently over-promised and under-delivered with its unlockdowns (just as it has done in so many other areas)
I've also explained why this is the case for many governments, not just ours. Tell people the truth - this could be months of living in an open jail - and they will go mad, and react very badly.
And I've shown you back that I'm right. The UK govt does not have a history of pretending long lockdowns are going to be short. That your main example of this happening is the relatively brief delay to the final unlock step after a long, phased and on time relaxation of the last lockdown only supports what I'm saying.
Once you adjust incidental covid out of the London admission stats, it just matches the start of the Summer rise - i.e. the small delta rise that we ended lockdown in spite of.
And London is supposed to be the scariest subsample!
- Cases growing. In London, zooming upwards (See regional R numbers). Scotland is not so much of an outlier now. Much of the growth, is in the younger groups (see the England age numbers per 100K). For now. - Admissions - growing, but slowly. - Deaths - a very mixed bag, but seem to be flat or even falling. - Boosters - 16,112,304 left to go in England and Scotland.
So number of boosters has stalled in the 800,000s per day and actually fell today… does this reflect a capacity constraint or is demand beginning to fall back after the opening-up-to-all at the beginning of the week… what more can the Government do to scare encourage more to do the right thing…
All the vaccine numbers have been cyclic on weekly basis since the start of the vaccination campaign. Why would they be different now?
A hard lockdown will apply in the Netherlands from 5 a.m. tomorrow morning. Sources in The Hague confirm that the cabinet is adopting the advice of the Outbreak Management Team to close as many sectors as possible. In any case, the new measures will remain in force until January 14.
It was already clear that the OMT and the cabinet are very concerned about the rapid spread of the omikron variant of the coronavirus.
The experts advise closing almost everything: only essential shops such as supermarkets and pharmacies should remain open, sources in The Hague confirmed yesterday. The cabinet held emergency consultations this afternoon and has reportedly adopted the advice for the hard lockdown.
This means that the catering industry, non-essential shops and the sports and culture sector will have to close again. Pickup at shops and catering would remain possible. As far as the experts are concerned, all secondary schools and other educational institutions must also close. Primary schools have already closed early for the Christmas holidays.
'Four people at Christmas' The group size outside is reduced to a maximum of 2 people. A maximum of 2 visitors should also be allowed inside. Reportedly there will be an exception for Christmas: then 4 visitors are welcome. This exception would not apply to New Year's Eve.
The new measures will be explained in a press conference at 7 pm.
If 1/10 londoners have covid them frankly it is hardly dangerous at all given the low death rates and admissions. I honestly think society has gone mad with the panic induced.
They need to stop publishing covid hospital stats on their own and make total occupancy & admissions available on a more regular basis. Q1 last year was the lowest hospital occupancy number on record for a Q1, and they're going to try to pull the same stunt again.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.
Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.
Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."
And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"
Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
Why would they present a 9 week lockdown as only being for 2 weeks?
Because when the metrics don’t improve after two weeks, it gets extended. Then when metrics don’t improve after four weeks...
They would be crazy to present a lockdown they think is likely to last 2 months as being only for 2 weeks. Makes no sense on any level. It's just not a rational fear imo.
It makes a lot of sense, saying "it will only be two weeks, nothing to worry about" is a lot easier to sell than "we're not sure when this will end, sorry you're going to be locked up indefinitely".
But that wouldn't be the choice. They will have an idea how long it'll be needed. And if that's 2 months there is no way it make sense to pretend to the public it's only going to be 2 weeks. That'd be an utterly crazy thing to do.
Except no lockdown is needed at all is it ? Because you have more chance of dying from the flu than covid and we never bothered with that did we
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.
Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.
Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."
And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"
Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
Why would they present a 9 week lockdown as only being for 2 weeks?
These things have a habit of snowballing.
Besides, it's not only the period of harsh measures that's the problem, it's the months and months of slow crawl out of them as well.
Covid lockdowns are just not very like snowballs.
But, yes, look, I get the fears. I'm just pointing out where I think they aren't rational.
And I've shown that you are wrong. The UK government has consistently over-promised and under-delivered with its unlockdowns (just as it has done in so many other areas)
I've also explained why this is the case for many governments, not just ours. Tell people the truth - this could be months of living in an open jail - and they will go mad, and react very badly.
And I've shown you back that I'm right. The UK govt does not have a history of pretending long lockdowns are going to be short. That your main example of this happening is the relatively brief delay to the final unlock step after a long, phased and on time relaxation of the last lockdown only supports what I'm saying.
Again, you're wrong. Let's try another.
Here's Boris promising to reopen schools in Feb, as long as we all eat our vaccine greens
“If we succeed in vaccinating all those groups, we will have removed huge numbers of people from the path of the virus. And of course that will eventually enable us to lift many of the restrictions we have endured for so long,” he said.
The country could consider reopening schools after the February half term if the vaccine rollout continues to go well, deaths start to fall and if “everyone plays their part by following the rules.”
Now you may say this is trivial. Two more weeks of kids at home. As a father of 2, I don't think it is at all trivial.
And it is just one of countless examples where the government dangled a carrot which was then snatched away, or they overpromised and could not deliver, or they just fucked up, or they lied. Hence the mistrust of any "2 week circuit breaker". Shove it
So number of boosters has stalled in the 800,000s per day and actually fell today… does this reflect a capacity constraint or is demand beginning to fall back after the opening-up-to-all at the beginning of the week… what more can the Government do to scare encourage more to do the right thing…
Let's hope this doesn't give today's Cabinet any ideas.
Like I said, most of this is irrelevant if schools are open.
They could take the other message, of course. If we're keeping schools open, why bother with anything else?
The answer, unfortunately, will be the Jim Hacker one - they want to look as if they're doing something. Unfortunately with this lot they usually end up looking as if they're trying to look as if they're trying to do something.
Where do you stand on remote lesrning? Is there more to come in making it smarter, and fairer across education as a whole, so there’s less of a drop off it it comes to closures? In first lock down, for some children it was via parents mobile phone. My concern is it just shows ’apartheid of the pocket’ across education system.
Do you see my point? Has last two years highlighted lessons learned and actions to be taken in terms of who has Laptops to aid education and who doesn’t?
Actually I backed 4 horses today, two had bad hair days, not in best of form, off the pace from early on and pulled up never really in it… just like the Tories in Shropshire North! 😆
You are not obliged to answer my question there Ydoethur, but I think I am asking the right person close to education, have you seen equality in opportunity when it comes to IT for remote learning - if not, what will it take to get there?
By the January 2021 lockdown, most of the technical wobbles had been sorted. Most kids had enough device and data access (via schools if necessary), most teachers had setups that worked. The Oak National Academy project worked well. Not perfectly, but well.
What has been exposed is all the stuff that only happens with a real pupil in the same physical space as a real teacher. The diligent kids have done OK academically- some probably better than expected. It's not been fun, but they've got on with it.
The trouble is that there's always a tail of underachievers who really need hard teacher stares to buckle down and do the damn work. That's been much harder to recreate online. And those who need the essay or exam crisis to motivate them have been stuffed.
Plus all the socialisation stuff that goes in in schools. And practical science- they're utterly useless at practical science.
Thank you. Good to hear enough IT got out there for everyone to have chance to join in properly. And it’s understandable you say, the diligent, self motivated done okay, but the lazy and unmotivated have really lost out. 😕
A hard lockdown will apply in the Netherlands from 5 a.m. tomorrow morning. Sources in The Hague confirm that the cabinet is adopting the advice of the Outbreak Management Team to close as many sectors as possible. In any case, the new measures will remain in force until January 14.
It was already clear that the OMT and the cabinet are very concerned about the rapid spread of the omikron variant of the coronavirus.
The experts advise closing almost everything: only essential shops such as supermarkets and pharmacies should remain open, sources in The Hague confirmed yesterday. The cabinet held emergency consultations this afternoon and has reportedly adopted the advice for the hard lockdown.
This means that the catering industry, non-essential shops and the sports and culture sector will have to close again. Pickup at shops and catering would remain possible. As far as the experts are concerned, all secondary schools and other educational institutions must also close. Primary schools have already closed early for the Christmas holidays.
'Four people at Christmas' The group size outside is reduced to a maximum of 2 people. A maximum of 2 visitors should also be allowed inside. Reportedly there will be an exception for Christmas: then 4 visitors are welcome. This exception would not apply to New Year's Eve.
The new measures will be explained in a press conference at 7 pm.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.
Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.
Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."
And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"
Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
That would be a very funny comment, if it wasn't true...
Opposite - it isn't true but it IS quite witty.
No it is funny because it is true. All too fucking true
It isn't. The pandemic here has not been like that at all. There's no great history of the govt announcing a lockdown, saying it's only going to be short but then it ends up long. It's becoming a little trope on here, people are just repeating it to each other and reinforcing what they've each got in their head, and what they've got in their head is (on this point) irrational and driven by fear of 22 being like 21 when just 2 weeks ago we thought we were near the end. I don't like being Mr Doctor - leave that to you and Topping - but this is what's going on, no question.
You're wrong on this one. There is absolutely a history in the UK of the government proposing a short lockdown, a circuit breaker, a road map, you name it, and then failing to deliver on their "release dates"
This is not a trick of the mind. Here's just one example.
"Freedom Day’ for England pushed back 4 weeks to July 19
"LONDON (AP) — British Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed Monday that the next planned relaxation of coronavirus restrictions in England will be delayed by four weeks, until July 19, a decision he said will save thousands of lives as the government speeds up its vaccination drive."
Yep, and that's pretty much it - the short delay to the very final step of unlocking after a long, phased and on time relaxation. This demonstrates my point well.
Good grief. There are endless examples of the government doing this. Overpromising. Another:
"Coronavirus: UK 'can turn the tide' in the next 12 weeks, Boris Johnson says
"The PM "can see how" progress will be made against COVID-19, but can't be "certain" of a "downward slope" by the end of June."
Did we "turn the tide" against Covid in the summer of 2020, after just 12 weeks of stout British defiance? lol
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.
Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.
Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."
And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"
Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
Why would they present a 9 week lockdown as only being for 2 weeks?
Because when the metrics don’t improve after two weeks, it gets extended. Then when metrics don’t improve after four weeks...
They would be crazy to present a lockdown they think is likely to last 2 months as being only for 2 weeks. Makes no sense on any level. It's just not a rational fear imo.
It makes a lot of sense, saying "it will only be two weeks, nothing to worry about" is a lot easier to sell than "we're not sure when this will end, sorry you're going to be locked up indefinitely".
Yes, quite. That's what they do, hence the mistrust
Imagine if they'd sat us down at the beginning of lockdown 3 and said, Oh this will be all winter, you won't get out properly until May, maybe June, fuck it we don't know, hahaha
The psychological resistance would have been massive. You might have seen riots, you might have seen suicides. So, governments generally don't do this (perhaps understandably).
In Britain the technique is normally announce a short-ish lockdown (maybe call it something neat and friendy like a circuit-breaker! -rather than National Gulag Month). You promise it will be reviewed after 2 or 3 weeks, and you hope to unlockdown, then the 3 weeks come up, oops, data still bad, sorry everyone, and on we go...
Ending restrictions when we are still in the shit is exactly what happened last autumn. With the result that Christmas was buggered. A week of gain for a month of pain.
For all people looking at the Gauteng data as gospel…
Tulio de Oliveira @Tuliodna · 22h I would like to ask one to be careful on not interpretation of Gauteng data from middle December. The reason is that Gauteng get quite empty and 100,000s of migrant workers and holiday makers leave. Tip, get a look at Beta wave at similar time last year in Gauteng
The population of Guateng does not drop by 50%, though. It might drop by 5%.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1h Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.
Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.
Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."
And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"
Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
That would be a very funny comment, if it wasn't true...
Opposite - it isn't true but it IS quite witty.
No it is funny because it is true. All too fucking true
It isn't. The pandemic here has not been like that at all. There's no great history of the govt announcing a lockdown, saying it's only going to be short but then it ends up long. It's becoming a little trope on here, people are just repeating it to each other and reinforcing what they've each got in their head, and what they've got in their head is (on this point) irrational and driven by fear of 22 being like 21 when just 2 weeks ago we thought we were near the end. I don't like being Mr Doctor - leave that to you and Topping - but this is what's going on, no question.
You're wrong on this one. There is absolutely a history in the UK of the government proposing a short lockdown, a circuit breaker, a road map, you name it, and then failing to deliver on their "release dates"
This is not a trick of the mind. Here's just one example.
"Freedom Day’ for England pushed back 4 weeks to July 19
"LONDON (AP) — British Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed Monday that the next planned relaxation of coronavirus restrictions in England will be delayed by four weeks, until July 19, a decision he said will save thousands of lives as the government speeds up its vaccination drive."
Yep, and that's pretty much it - the short delay to the very final step of unlocking after a long, phased and on time relaxation. This demonstrates my point well.
Good grief. There are endless examples of the government doing this. Overpromising. Another:
"Coronavirus: UK 'can turn the tide' in the next 12 weeks, Boris Johnson says
"The PM "can see how" progress will be made against COVID-19, but can't be "certain" of a "downward slope" by the end of June."
Did we "turn the tide" against Covid in the summer of 2020, after just 12 weeks of stout British defiance? lol
Yes, we did. Cases did decline in June and by July 2020 COVID cases had hit near zero.
Scotland almost completely eliminated domestic covid by August 2020. The majority of cases were then imported from people returning from summer holidays.
Very nearly a big FFS today - went for wife's perfume present in Boots in town today - packed so hard to hear and get listened to - went over to fragrances and asked the nice young lady for the name of the perfume - She grabbed it straight from the counter next to me and took it over to pay - there was then some commotion over it not having the price recorded on the till and waiting for that to be resolved I just checked it was the exact name I was given by my daughter to get - It only turned out it was mens fragrance - I had no idea there was a mens fragrance section in boots little knwoing also the name of the perfume had a mens equivalent - - anyway all resolved by an escorted trip up the aisle to the ladies section again by the nice young assistant!
You can think yourselves lucky in mainland UK on the booster programme. In Northern Ireland we have behind the curve compared to the other nations. England for example was at least 2-3 weeks ahead on the move to a general call on a booster jab after 3 months. The capacity to have a wider booster programme was there back in late autumn but we have been consistently behind.
Everyone knows some deeper restrictions are coming but I'd agree with some posters below who suggest the stats and science are actually showing some reassuring outputs. The question is what matters more, the NHS under the heaviest stress or the country and economy? Unfortunately the former will win out for a the simple reason that the NHS has become above criticism.
Things to note:
Positive tests are sizeably up, but so are tests overall. If I read the stats right the positives are disprotionate to the rise in tests but not dramatically so. Question is, what is driving the tests & how much of what is driving the positives is actually just higher testing, ie some previously untested cases always there but more people are now testing and how much of the rise in positives is increased prevalence.
Reading the potential symptoms of Omicron, I'd get those symptoms once a year as I am outdoors a lot, at often night, in the cold & damp. So what is this year when I have had those symptoms? That set of symptoms has a greater crossover with a lot winter sniffles than other variants, ie drive more testing. In turn, more people may be testing now because its Christmas and no one fancies blowing some kind of get together so wants to add a bit of security.
What if post Christmas tests fall notably, logically so will positives based on law of averages.
And so on....
One thing though and maybe a lesson in the debate of compulsion vs persusaion. The response of the public to the booster scheme and advice to cut the contacts looks to have been notably compliant. Maybe we should trust the public more.
Very nearly a big FFS today - went for wife's perfume present in Boots in town today - packed so hard to hear and get listened to - went over to fragrances and asked the nice young lady for the name of the perfume - She grabbed it straight from the counter next to me and took it over to pay - there was then some commotion over it not having the price recorded on the till and waiting for that to be resolved I just checked it was the exact name I was given by my daughter to get - It only turned out it was mens fragrance - I had no idea there was a mens fragrance section in boots little knwoing also the name of the perfume had a mens equivalent - - anyway all resolved by an escorted trip up the aisle to the ladies section again by the nice young assistant!
I don't understand perfume. Mrs RP smells like a woman. Does't need external help from Boots.
It’s nearly time for me to get into car for my stint driving up the M1.
Last week I pointed HYUFD to Pugin social commentary and TS Elliott and he said he would take a look. I think here in London we exist in patterns that makes us think tribal, living like unconscious, too easy to get wrapped up in petty worries, silly fancies and ideas. Posting them on here and arguing. LOL. But On Sunday, in Yorkshire, I will walk up a hill and become once again the landscape and the sky, feel the pull from the moon mothering my watery body and the sun enriching my blood. To know the wild intelligence of our bodies is hard to explain in words it’s like experiencing waking up in the morning or atlast understanding that lesson you are being taught by someone wiser than yourself, the lesson that, positiveness on one hand and feeling hope on the other are different things, they are if you feel from the inside out rather than from the outside trying to get in, because truth is we are actually all part of the consciousness that is the font of everything. like TS Elliott said, what we are seeking is always here with us - we won’t stop from seeking and exploring, though the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time.
Merry Christmas I wish you all take care but still enjoy yourselves. I’ll keep reading, liking and posting where I can. 🥳
If I knapped a dildo that was consistently eight times too big, I'd be out of a job, and probably being sued for injuries to clients
At what point do the boffins admit they have a systemic problem? They need to be confronted, they need to explain these endless negativist errors
The problem isn’t SAGE or the models, it’s how they are presented. The worst case scenario is frequently presented as “SAGE forecast” rather than the central. Cavers about uncertainty / limited data are just glossed over.
Or the models are taken out of context, eg a model predicting the profile of cases if a lockdown is not imposed is then compared to the post lockdown numbers and shown to be “wrong”
Most of this is the fault of the media. Some of it lies for the scientists for not communicating effectively.
If I knapped a dildo that was consistently eight times too big, I'd be out of a job, and probably being sued for injuries to clients
At what point do the boffins admit they have a systemic problem? They need to be confronted, they need to explain these endless negativist errors
The problem isn’t SAGE or the models, it’s how they are presented. The worst case scenario is frequently presented as “SAGE forecast” rather than the central. Or the models are taken out of context, eg a model predicting the profile of cases if a lockdown is not imposed is then compared to the post lockdown numbers and shown to be “wrong”
Most of this is the fault of the media. Some of it lies for the scientists for not communicating effectively.
If I knapped a dildo that was consistently eight times too big, I'd be out of a job, and probably being sued for injuries to clients
At what point do the boffins admit they have a systemic problem? They need to be confronted, they need to explain these endless negativist errors
The problem isn’t SAGE or the models, it’s how they are presented. The worst case scenario is frequently presented as “SAGE forecast” rather than the central. Cavers about uncertainty / limited data are just glossed over.
Or the models are taken out of context, eg a model predicting the profile of cases if a lockdown is not imposed is then compared to the post lockdown numbers and shown to be “wrong”
Most of this is the fault of the media. Some of it lies for the scientists for not communicating effectively.
While the media are consistently crap, the claim it is just the worst cade scenario is way out, this isn't even true.....their median forecasts have consistently been way out....hell even the most optimistics as well....
Those of us who do mathematical modelling for a living have consistently pointed clear flaws with their models.
Comments
Positivity rate down nationally for 3rd day in a row - looks like their actual infections peaked at least a week ago.
Mr Johnson on the Parthenon Marbles in the British Museum (albeit under the aegis of the Oxford Union in 1986):
'“The Elgin marbles should leave this northern whisky-drinking guilt-culture, and be displayed where they belong: in a country of bright sunshine and the landscape of Achilles, ‘the shadowy mountains and the echoing sea,’” he wrote in the article, republished by the Greek daily, Ta Nea, on Saturday.
“They will be housed in a new museum a few hundred yards from the Acropolis. They will be meticulously cared for. They will not, as they were in the British Museum in 1938, be severely damaged by manic washerwomen scrubbing them with copper brushes.”'
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2021/dec/18/boris-johnsons-zeal-to-return-parthenon-marbles-revealed-in-1986-article
ASDAs in particular have never bothered with restrictions - including the present mask requirements.
This is not a trick of the mind. Here's just one example.
"Freedom Day’ for England pushed back 4 weeks to July 19
"LONDON (AP) — British Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed Monday that the next planned relaxation of coronavirus restrictions in England will be delayed by four weeks, until July 19, a decision he said will save thousands of lives as the government speeds up its vaccination drive."
https://apnews.com/article/england-europe-g-7-summit-coronavirus-pandemic-health-c11a3d9dcbcd3655d7578ea20e7efc1d
And the remaining 2 doses will mostly be in the lower vulnerability groups.
Plus also likely to have higher levels of previous infection.
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/19792275.christmas-shopper-hazmat-suit-spotted-primark-brighton/?ref=ebmpn
Camden was particularly bad, I guess because it is such a huge transport hub: hence queues even in lockdown 3
PS: Of course it won't actually happen.
Imagine if they'd sat us down at the beginning of lockdown 3 and said, Oh this will be all winter, you won't get out properly until May, maybe June, fuck it we don't know, hahaha
The psychological resistance would have been massive. You might have seen riots, you might have seen suicides. So, governments generally don't do this (perhaps understandably).
In Britain the technique is normally announce a short-ish lockdown (maybe call it something neat and friendy like a circuit-breaker! -rather than National Gulag Month). You promise it will be reviewed after 2 or 3 weeks, and you hope to unlockdown, then the 3 weeks come up, oops, data still bad, sorry everyone, and on we go...
Tulio de Oliveira
@Tuliodna
·
22h
I would like to ask one to be careful on not interpretation of Gauteng data from middle December. The reason is that Gauteng get quite empty and 100,000s of migrant workers and holiday makers leave. Tip, get a look at Beta wave at similar time last year in Gauteng
But, yes, look, I get the fears. I'm just pointing out where I think they aren't rational.
Fortunately we had been informed that a random doctor's surgery a 5 minutes drive away was doing walk ins and had no queue so I fucked off there and discovered here was a queue! Of one person! Who had been a couple of places ahead of me at the previous place and had also fucked off when they discovered there was going to be a half hour wait inside. Got stabbed within a couple of minutes of turning up.
I don't know exactly what happened at the first place but they clearly had been floored by the change in booster policy. Without Omicron I think they would have been fine but they didn't have the policies in place to cope with the free for all - I'd booked my appointment over a month previously in the before times.
Leaving a queue for a scheduled appointment to chance your arm at a walk in raised my anxiety levels considerably.
While a move in population may have had some effect it would be at the margins.
I've also explained why this is the case for many governments, not just ours. Tell people the truth - this could be months of living in an open jail - and they will go mad, and react very badly.
Alternatively, that's just diverse Brighton for you. You just wouldn't believe the outfits some folk wear down here, even in 'normal' times. A Hazmat suit is nothing.
111/169 new Covid +ve patients were not being treated primarily for Covid (proportion much higher than previous waves)
1/3
i.e. they incidentally tested positive after admission for other conditions and so level of additional pressure on NHS will be less than feared.
Actual Covid admissions are currently tracking the managable Delta wave in July - not the much worse Alpha wave last Winter.
2/3
We still need to wait for more data as picture could change as cases are increasing in older age gps but this shows total/ actual Covid admissions could be lower than feared.
We should know in a week and so should not bring in further restrictions based on worst-case scenarios.
https://twitter.com/drraghibali/status/1472134530173702145?s=20
Patients with COVID have still got COVID - but they're being admitted with it not because of it.
What are they saying?
By the January 2021 lockdown, most of the technical wobbles had been sorted. Most kids had enough device and data access (via schools if necessary), most teachers had setups that worked. The Oak National Academy project worked well. Not perfectly, but well.
What has been exposed is all the stuff that only happens with a real pupil in the same physical space as a real teacher. The diligent kids have done OK academically- some probably better than expected. It's not been fun, but they've got on with it.
The trouble is that there's always a tail of underachievers who really need hard teacher stares to buckle down and do the damn work. That's been much harder to recreate online. And those who need the essay or exam crisis to motivate them have been stuffed.
Plus all the socialisation stuff that goes in in schools. And practical science- they're utterly useless at practical science.
If Boris didn't have scandals and failures to distract from, he would be proudly pointing out how much better off we are than last year and most other places.
"Coronavirus: UK 'can turn the tide' in the next 12 weeks, Boris Johnson says
"The PM "can see how" progress will be made against COVID-19, but can't be "certain" of a "downward slope" by the end of June."
Did we "turn the tide" against Covid in the summer of 2020, after just 12 weeks of stout British defiance? lol
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-can-turn-tide-in-next-12-weeks-boris-johnson-says-11960443
And another. The Christmas debacle
"LONDON — Boris Johnson wants to save Christmas through mass testing — but his advisers are bracing for a long winter.
"The U.K. prime minister said Wednesday that new “simple, quick and scalable” tests involving saliva swabs and turning out results in just 20 minutes should become available “soon” and could be a game-changer, allowing those testing negative not to socially distance"
https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-tries-to-save-uk-christmas-against-all-coronavirus-odds/
Worth noting that photo of him there. Jesus. The poor guy has aged 15 years in 15 months
scareencourage more to do the right thing…Which is doubtless why, as Private Eye points out:
https://twitter.com/taxbod/status/1471977923355762689/photo/1
- Cases growing. In London, zooming upwards (See regional R numbers). Scotland is not so much of an outlier now. Much of the growth, is in the younger groups (see the England age numbers per 100K). For now.
- Admissions - growing, but slowly.
- Deaths - a very mixed bag, but seem to be flat or even falling.
- Boosters - 16,112,304 left to go in England and Scotland.
And London is supposed to be the scariest subsample!
See ya Leon.
1705 - Church in danger!
1801 - England in danger!
1825 - Protestant in danger!
1910 - Aristocracy in danger!
1945 - Liberty in danger!
1979 - Economy in danger!
2001 - Pound in danger!
So will it be in 2022 - Boris & Raab & etc. & etc. in danger?
Fearless prediction: by 2024 (if not sooner) it will be - Brexit in danger!
Which some (though hardly many) might consider coming full circle . . .
Scrabbling round for home delivery from as many sources as possible provided entertainment.
Here's the long term trend with all the data since "of" and "with" data was first split out back in June
https://twitter.com/RufusSG/status/1472251020898099203
Focussing on since beginning of December - dotted grey line is actual incidental admissions ratio vs total, solid grey line is vs 7 days ago:
Here's Boris promising to reopen schools in Feb, as long as we all eat our vaccine greens
“If we succeed in vaccinating all those groups, we will have removed huge numbers of people from the path of the virus. And of course that will eventually enable us to lift many of the restrictions we have endured for so long,” he said.
The country could consider reopening schools after the February half term if the vaccine rollout continues to go well, deaths start to fall and if “everyone plays their part by following the rules.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/04/british-prime-boris-johnson-imposes-national-lockdown-for-england-to-combat-new-covid-variant.html
Reality?
They didn't reopen until March
https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/56156197
Now you may say this is trivial. Two more weeks of kids at home. As a father of 2, I don't think it is at all trivial.
And it is just one of countless examples where the government dangled a carrot which was then snatched away, or they overpromised and could not deliver, or they just fucked up, or they lied. Hence the mistrust of any "2 week circuit breaker". Shove it
https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios
If I knapped a dildo that was consistently eight times too big, I'd be out of a job, and probably being sued for injuries to clients
At what point do the boffins admit they have a systemic problem? They need to be confronted, they need to explain these endless negativist errors
Sensible targeting - which means the Tories are in big trouble
It was oversold as a measure of Bozza's go-getting greatness.
Everyone knows some deeper restrictions are coming but I'd agree with some posters below who suggest the stats and science are actually showing some reassuring outputs. The question is what matters more, the NHS under the heaviest stress or the country and economy? Unfortunately the former will win out for a the simple reason that the NHS has become above criticism.
Things to note:
Positive tests are sizeably up, but so are tests overall. If I read the stats right the positives are disprotionate to the rise in tests but not dramatically so. Question is, what is driving the tests & how much of what is driving the positives is actually just higher testing, ie some previously untested cases always there but more people are now testing and how much of the rise in positives is increased prevalence.
Reading the potential symptoms of Omicron, I'd get those symptoms once a year as I am outdoors a lot, at often night, in the cold & damp. So what is this year when I have had those symptoms? That set of symptoms has a greater crossover with a lot winter sniffles than other variants, ie drive more testing. In turn, more people may be testing now because its Christmas and no one fancies blowing some kind of get together so wants to add a bit of security.
What if post Christmas tests fall notably, logically so will positives based on law of averages.
And so on....
One thing though and maybe a lesson in the debate of compulsion vs persusaion. The response of the public to the booster scheme and advice to cut the contacts looks to have been notably compliant. Maybe we should trust the public more.
Last week I pointed HYUFD to Pugin social commentary and TS Elliott and he said he would take a look. I think here in London we exist in patterns that makes us think tribal, living like unconscious, too easy to get wrapped up in petty worries, silly fancies and ideas. Posting them on here and arguing. LOL. But On Sunday, in Yorkshire, I will walk up a hill and become once again the landscape and the sky, feel the pull from the moon mothering my watery body and the sun enriching my blood. To know the wild intelligence of our bodies is hard to explain in words it’s like experiencing waking up in the morning or atlast understanding that lesson you are being taught by someone wiser than yourself, the lesson that, positiveness on one hand and feeling hope on the other are different things, they are if you feel from the inside out rather than from the outside trying to get in, because truth is we are actually all part of the consciousness that is the font of everything. like TS Elliott said, what we are seeking is always here with us - we won’t stop from seeking and exploring, though the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time.
Merry Christmas I wish you all take care but still enjoy yourselves. I’ll keep reading, liking and posting where I can. 🥳
https://twitter.com/AlexSalmond/status/1472257841952088064?s=20
Or the models are taken out of context, eg a model predicting the profile of cases if a lockdown is not imposed is then compared to the post lockdown numbers and shown to be “wrong”
Most of this is the fault of the media. Some of it lies for the scientists for not communicating effectively.
Those of us who do mathematical modelling for a living have consistently pointed clear flaws with their models.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1042191/S1442_EMG_and_SPI-B_Non-Pharmaceutical_Interventions__NPIs__in_the_context_of_Omicron__15_December_2021.pdf