By-elections tend to be grossly over interpreted. Boris Johnson is more likely than people think to shrug this off and govern until the next election, and even to turn it around and win that election (stunning mid-term defeats didn’t really do much to May, Cameron, or Blair). But it was still a big kick in the teeth for him, and one I thought was unlikely.
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Honestly, the man makes Chris Grayling or even Larry Whitty look like a fecking political colossus.
You omitted to mention that Raab is a crap MP, which helps the bet, but otherwise you are spot on.
Which was as well because third would have been beyond him.
The thing to remember is that Boris built a coalition of voters and has now managed to annoy both sides of them providing a means for both the Lib Dems and Labour to chip away at core Tory voters.
I have to say I'm much less convinced than @Quincel. This year's County Council elections didn't show a huge LD breakthrough in Elmbridge (unlike Guildford and Waverley). Indeed, seats like East Molesey & Esher, Hersham (can't think who the County Councillor is) and Walton remained solidly Conservative.
Yes, the LDs improved their vote share but from the Conservative high water of 2017, that was almost a given and has really only taken the party back to pre-Coalition times.
If I were to be considering an LD gain in Surrey, Guildford or Surrey SW would be where I'd be starting.
It's less than brilliantly safe and it's not like he's working it assiduously either.
I'd say anything over 3-1 for Labour is probably value.
.......Meanwhile I put my house on it and am currently selling the Big Issue in Hartlepool.
But it will not redeem Raab in my eyes...
Honestly. How could any self-respecting PBer forget??
The question is, how long does it keep working, how badly does it end and what do you do next?
This doesn't look to be working for long, it's clearly not going to end well.
But most of all the Tories are clearly completely lost on what to do next. They seem to have been so obsessed with sorting out Europe for its own sake they forgot that actually there is a whole set of issues that they are barely aware of and need addressing.
If this is Omicron then I'm honestly not worried. I had original COVID and that was horrific, Omicron after two doses of vaccine has got nothing in the tank.
Graham Brady likely to get a P45 amongst his letters. At a stretch Macclesfield too.
Both are moving from Cheshire ish Uber Tory to more like Manchester.
How are boundary changes being factored in? V important for constituency betting...
@btwodo for a great campaign that didn't get the reward it so deserved - onwards and upwards when people realize the #FibDems are just yellow Tories.."
There's nothing wrong with congratulating a hard working candidate and stating that he deserved better.
And it's perfectly reasonable for Labour to continue to remind people that 5 years of very recent Conservative austerity was facilitated by the Lib Dems. When I read Telegraph commentators and the likes of John Redwood this week bemoaning the looser fiscal policies of Johnson compared to the hard line gruel that Osborne and Cameron served up, it only confirms that the 2010 to 2015 years really were true blue ones.
Lib Dem hopes at the next GE will be focused entirely on picking up mainly Conservative votes in Conservative held seats. The reminder of their recent past probably helped the Lib Dems in N Shropshire and will help them in similar seats elsewhere.
Yup, red wall voters are not stupid in spite of what labour activists on twitter say.
They know Boris is all piss and wind and let them down
I suspect the Tories are looking to 2017 as the core and holding onto those seats while retaining a few won in 2019. As the likes of HYUFD made quite clear. They do not see the red wall as Tories merely people who lent their vote to get Brexit done.
Does that work credibly numerically?
Northern Research Group has 55 members.
The other complicating factor in Elmbridge is that there is quite a strong Residents group, which confuses local elections. But I agree that unless the Tories self-destruct in 2024 the last election was probably a high water mark for the LDs there.
It may also be that if Raab moves elsewhere it will strengthen the Con vote. This happened in 1983 in Richmond when the local Tories dropped their unpopular MP (I think officially he 'retired') and just hung on.
Maybe we should ask for caltrops to be put in the middle of the pitch to make things more even?
BTW - your post was off-topic so on to the naughty step with you.
Obviously some of that will be children reaching 12 and becoming eligible but there must also be quite a few who are being persuaded even at this late stage to get vaccinated for the first time.
I find that interesting.
Feeling any better today yourself? I have to say tracking the progress with LFTs is a really interesting exercise, I think the total length of my infection is about 5 days so far and I'm clearly coming to the end of it.
On this topic, after two challenging years how would I now rate Johnson's cabinet and where have I changed my mind?
Sharma and Zahawi have impressed in their roles. Gove gets an upgrade for being the only one with any kind of vision in spite of his flaws. Sunak gets a downgrade for the opposite reason. Hancock downgraded from mediocre to abysmal. Wallace I didn't know anything about and is still a bit of a cypher, but of probably OK. Javid came on later and is also OK.
I thought the rest, unless I have missed any, were literally worse than useless. I haven't changed my mind. If I inherited that team I would look to get rid of them all at the first opportunity. Especially Johnson.
Alex Wickham
@alexwickham
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Told emergency Covid Cabinet call happening in next few hours
Cabinet sources expect they will be primed for the possibility of further restrictions
Sale West is largely very leafy except perhaps for Broadheath and the RaceCourse estate. I knew the Labour candidate Jane Baugh, but I knew her husband much, much better and often shared drinks with him at his local where he hung out with the LibDem mob.
Housing, where is the big plan?
Cost of living, where is the big plan?
Climate change, where is the big plan?
Transport, where is the big plan?
They have this massive majority and yet I can't see a single thing they've actually used it for.
A friend of a friend just got her second dose done months after her first according to the friend, basically she thought because she missed the second dose appointment she wasn't eligible anymore and didn't talk to anyone about it then just forgot about it. It was only a few days ago when my friend asked if she got boosted yet that she said about her second dose. Unsurprisingly my friend told her to book in the second dose appointment ASAP and she got one for the next day.
Camilla is a crap journalist and has been for years, anyone want to claim otherwise?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-59599884
This is even more damning on social services than the Arthur Labinjo-Hughes case. I don’t know the solution but we have to, somehow, do better.
On Wallace, I have come across him in a professional capacity and he seemed competent. However this government is so thin on ability that it is the quality of the others that makes him stand out, a bit like Javid.
Obviously, if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other looks like a winner, the Conservatives will dump BoJo, airbrush him from history, new leader etc...
But what if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other doesn't look like winning, but does look like losing less badly? What will the party do? What will AN Other do?
And what if BoJo snaps and goes off in a huff because everyone is being so mean to him?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/17/scariest-place-ive-worked-social-worker-recalls-stint-in-bradford
Johnson said he'd get Brexit done, so it's no surprise nobody cares about this anymore - and he can now just back down on any lines he had and maybe make the deal he "negotiated" (stole) from Theresa May a bit better
Go 4th and multiply ....
Fish fish Fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish !
(Instructing bloke called Fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish to go and catch his supper.)
Most of us will just crack on regardless.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/dec/17/bob-innes-rent-a-hitman-assassin-services-website?s=09
Hypocrites.
As to what the Conservative Party does after that in Opposition, that's for the Conservative Party to consider.
"Suspending" the triple lock.
Cutting overseas aid.
Getting rid of the FTPA.
What distinctive policies does Johnson have?
If you haven't read Gyles Brandreth's account of his time as an MP, "Breaking the Code", it's awfully good.
Carefully calibrated measures to ensure we come as close to a lockdown as the Government can get away with, without closing businesses and being forced to bring back furlough and the rest of the support mechanisms?
Predictions:
1. It will have no measurable effect on the virus
2. It will bankrupt a lot of otherwise viable businesses, for no compensating gain
3. As well as Philip and Max, half the Parliamentary Tory Party will go into meltdown. Everyone who rebelled against vaxports will do so again plus, presumably, several dozen other MPs who'd assumed that they weren't going to be served another big helping of shit gateau about five minutes after the last one
4. HYUFD will parrot the same "there is no lockdown" party line a thousand times, whilst the hospitality industry basically self-combusts
Or maybe everyone will agree that more restrictions are just what we need, Sunak will bail the businesses again, and the hospitals won't burn?
Not 100% convinced.
I've grudgingly curtailed what little pre-Xmas socialising I had plans to limit the risk of infecting my parents (both in their 60's, one in the clinically vulnerable category), but seriously, if the government thinks I'm going to abide by another lockdown after two years of this, and three vaccinations, they can do one.
Erm. Both May and Cameron were fatally wounded and limped on for a time as lesser figures in lesser governments before getting shoved out.
The point about high water mark is the key here I think. Blair had his zenith and when he realised the writing was on the wall he exited stage left.
Boris Johnson is all downhill from here. He will take the tory party down with him unless they do something about it but even if they do, I doubt it will halt the slide away from power.
Whatever you bet on for 2024, any sort of outright tory majority shouldn't be part of it.
It's like a bad dream that never ends.
As a family we have decided to carry on regardless.
Because some semblance of normality is more important to us.
Isn't personal freedom great? We should stop telling people how to live their lives and pretending we can control a virus,
The soft and centre Euro left will be angry but it's not like the right of the party are happy either. Read comments on tory websites and you'll see just how utterly pissed off they are with Johnson's 'left-wing' agenda on tax and spend etc.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1472170216604020738?s=20
"data" or one of the "models" (sic):
Wait, just reread and one of their sensitivity analyses assumes 2-dose AZ VE against death = 29%? I mean what the fuck is this total bullshit?
https://twitter.com/RufusSG/status/1471977186542469122
Page 31:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2021-12-16-COVID19-Report-48.pdf
Got my pre-lockdown haircut today and the barber was radiating anxiety, poor bloke. Said he'd experienced a huge rush in the last week as everyone had the same idea as me.
We have a responsibility to look out for one another in this country and world. Your sort of utterly selfish attitude can lead people to die.
We need to be responsible and try to contain this for as long as possible in order to get as many people booster jabbed as possible and to protect the NHS, which I and others care about even if you don't.
Oyster Reach Beefeater Ipswich
@Restaurant_mgr
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32m
Replying to
@EssexPR
Over 300 #cancellations and counting this weekend alone, dread answering the phone now