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Eyes on the Blue Wall: Raab is in danger – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageEyes on the Blue Wall: Raab is in danger – politicalbetting.com

By-elections tend to be grossly over interpreted. Boris Johnson is more likely than people think to shrug this off and govern until the next election, and even to turn it around and win that election (stunning mid-term defeats didn’t really do much to May, Cameron, or Blair). But it was still a big kick in the teeth for him, and one I thought was unlikely.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • First, unlike the Tories
  • A good bet on the day but will the price shorten between now and whenever is the general election?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    We can but hope...

    Honestly, the man makes Chris Grayling or even Larry Whitty look like a fecking political colossus.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited December 2021
    Er. 4th.
  • I had wondered in the previous thread, what self-respecting constituency would want someone as apparently vacuous as Raaab. Then someone mentioned Chris Grayling's constituency. Raab could be an upgrade....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    I had wondered in the previous thread, what self-respecting constituency would want someone as apparently vacuous as Raaab. Then someone mentioned Chris Grayling's constituency. Raab could be an upgrade....

    Not really. Grayling at least knew what ferries were, even if he didn't know which ports they used.
  • Good advice, Quincel.

    You omitted to mention that Raab is a crap MP, which helps the bet, but otherwise you are spot on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    MattW said:

    Er. 4th.

    As the Lord said unto Moses: 'Come forth!'

    Which was as well because third would have been beyond him.
  • ydoethur said:

    I had wondered in the previous thread, what self-respecting constituency would want someone as apparently vacuous as Raaab. Then someone mentioned Chris Grayling's constituency. Raab could be an upgrade....

    Not really. Grayling at least knew what ferries were, even if he didn't know which ports they used.
    :D:D
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    Good advice, Quincel.

    You omitted to mention that Raab is a crap MP, which helps the bet, but otherwise you are spot on.

    FTFY.
  • So, does Raab have ANY redeeming attributes?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021
    FPT but equally on-topic
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Worth a read - strategy advice from the politics professor, probably not that popular either here or there (and also ignores entirely the huge problems of his personality flaws):

    https://unherd.com/?p=297422?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3&mc_cid=dfe0bf5e59&mc_eid=836634e34b

    It is the defection of these Leavers which poses the biggest problem to Johnson. He reshaped his entire premiership and political party around them. If his core voters go, then the realignment collapses and the Conservatives will be finished. The party will haemorrhage middle-class graduate votes to the Liberal Democrats in the south and pro-Brexit, working-class votes to apathy in the north. They will come under attack from all sides and no longer have a viable coalition.

    The only way forward for Johnson now, for his increasingly rebellious party too, is to reconnect with the very people who put them in power to begin with, to double down on the realignment and forget about everybody else. It’s not popular but it is politics. Brexit may be fading into the distance but there are many other issues that could just as powerfully unite the new Conservative electorate particularly ahead of a general election at which a Labour-SNP coalition is a serious prospect. Immigration is one. Crime is another. Defining and delivering a serious levelling-up strategy is another. And so too is robustly defending British identity, history and culture from an increasingly radical progressive left (just ask Republicans in Virgina).

    There simply is no alternative. If you think that after everything we have witnessed in the past two years — Brexit, Cummings, Covid, Johnson’s personal failings and the utter chaos in No. 10 — that the Conservative Party can win back the Londoners, Remainers and professional middle-classes in time for the next election, then I have a bridge to sell you. No, the only way forward for him now is to start ditching advisors and doubling down on where he began.

    Except Boris has already cancelled levelling up - and with it those new Northern voters will return to apathy or their default of voting labour.

    I pointed out a while back - Redcar is a prime Northern Red Wall seat and has been since 2005 when the steel works first had problems. And watch how subsequent elections play out.
    Yup, red wall voters are not stupid in spite of what labour activists on twitter say.

    They know Boris is all piss and wind and let them down

    I suspect the Tories are looking to 2017 as the core and holding onto those seats while retaining a few won in 2019. As the likes of HYUFD made quite clear. They do not see the red wall as Tories merely people who lent their vote to get Brexit done.
    The Tories don't however have the 2017 base they had then though. In Blue Wall seats a lot of voters will now be looking at the Lib Dems and thinking - can't be any worse and there are a lot of home county seats that could easily swing Lib Dem if they don't get what they want.

    The thing to remember is that Boris built a coalition of voters and has now managed to annoy both sides of them providing a means for both the Lib Dems and Labour to chip away at core Tory voters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    So, does Raab have ANY redeeming attributes?

    I wondered if perhaps he was the first Jewish Foreign Secretary, but then I remembered the Marquis of Reading in 1931 and Sir Malcolm Rifkind from 1995-97.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Dura_Ace said:

    So, does Raab have ANY redeeming attributes?

    Very anti fox hunting so I'll give him credit for having a scintilla of integrity on that issue.
    Well, I'm not surprised he's in favour of foxes given the number of fox ups he makes.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651
    Morning all :)

    I have to say I'm much less convinced than @Quincel. This year's County Council elections didn't show a huge LD breakthrough in Elmbridge (unlike Guildford and Waverley). Indeed, seats like East Molesey & Esher, Hersham (can't think who the County Councillor is) and Walton remained solidly Conservative.

    Yes, the LDs improved their vote share but from the Conservative high water of 2017, that was almost a given and has really only taken the party back to pre-Coalition times.

    If I were to be considering an LD gain in Surrey, Guildford or Surrey SW would be where I'd be starting.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Another seat I'd be pondering is Johnson's own.

    It's less than brilliantly safe and it's not like he's working it assiduously either.

    I'd say anything over 3-1 for Labour is probably value.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 5,411
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    So, does Raab have ANY redeeming attributes?

    I wondered if perhaps he was the first Jewish Foreign Secretary, but then I remembered the Marquis of Reading in 1931 and Sir Malcolm Rifkind from 1995-97.
    I had no idea he was Jewish. Living in south Manchester I did business with a lot of Jewish people and they were among my favourite customers.

    But it will not redeem Raab in my eyes...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    ydoethur said:

    So, does Raab have ANY redeeming attributes?

    I wondered if perhaps he was the first Jewish Foreign Secretary, but then I remembered the Marquis of Reading in 1931 and Sir Malcolm Rifkind from 1995-97.
    I had no idea he was Jewish. Living in south Manchester I did business with a lot of Jewish people and they were among my favourite customers.

    But it will not redeem Raab in my eyes...
    I think he's a member of the Church of England, but he has Jewish ancestry (hence the name).
  • It seems to me that long term the 2019 strategy ends in defeat
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    edited December 2021
    Good grief, what's going on. Already over 20 posts and every one *on topic* - what's PB coming to?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So, does Raab have ANY redeeming attributes?

    I wondered if perhaps he was the first Jewish Foreign Secretary, but then I remembered the Marquis of Reading in 1931 and Sir Malcolm Rifkind from 1995-97.
    I had no idea he was Jewish. Living in south Manchester I did business with a lot of Jewish people and they were among my favourite customers.

    But it will not redeem Raab in my eyes...
    I think he's a member of the Church of England, but he has Jewish ancestry (hence the name).
    Well, I think it is no secret what I think of all religions so Mr Raab's affiliations are of no concern to me.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    ydoethur said:

    So, does Raab have ANY redeeming attributes?

    I wondered if perhaps he was the first Jewish Foreign Secretary, but then I remembered the Marquis of Reading in 1931 and Sir Malcolm Rifkind from 1995-97.
    Then I remembered the Marquess of Reading in 1931.
    Honestly. How could any self-respecting PBer forget?? ;)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    It seems to me that long term the 2019 strategy ends in defeat

    All political strategies end in defeat in democratic systems. Labour in 1964, the Tories in 1979, Labour in 1997 - it won them power but in the end it cost them power again.

    The question is, how long does it keep working, how badly does it end and what do you do next?

    This doesn't look to be working for long, it's clearly not going to end well.

    But most of all the Tories are clearly completely lost on what to do next. They seem to have been so obsessed with sorting out Europe for its own sake they forgot that actually there is a whole set of issues that they are barely aware of and need addressing.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    So, does Raab have ANY redeeming attributes?

    Very anti fox hunting so I'll give him credit for having a scintilla of integrity on that issue.
    Fair enough! I will also have to admit that he looks good in a suit unlike the sartorial disaster that he works for...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,380

    So, does Raab have ANY redeeming attributes?

    He looks like Rik Mayall?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Day 5 of isolation - my LFT is now almost clear, wife's LFT is completely clear, sister's LFT is almost clear, mum's LFT is completely clear, only my brother in law is registering anything more than a faint line, my dad still testing negative and showing no symptoms - huzzah for boosters.

    If this is Omicron then I'm honestly not worried. I had original COVID and that was horrific, Omicron after two doses of vaccine has got nothing in the tank.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Roger said:

    So, does Raab have ANY redeeming attributes?

    He looks like Rik Mayall?
    If there's a Specsavers in Hartlepool, they might offer you a free eye test.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    MaxPB said:

    Day 5 of isolation - my LFT is now almost clear, wife's LFT is completely clear, sister's LFT is almost clear, mum's LFT is completely clear, only my brother in law is registering anything more than a faint line, my dad still testing negative and showing no symptoms - huzzah for boosters.

    If this is Omicron then I'm honestly not worried. I had original COVID and that was horrific, Omicron after two doses of vaccine has got nothing in the tank.

    Good to hear the recovery is coming along well.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited December 2021
    Altrincham and Sale West is one to watch.
    Graham Brady likely to get a P45 amongst his letters. At a stretch Macclesfield too.
    Both are moving from Cheshire ish Uber Tory to more like Manchester.
    How are boundary changes being factored in? V important for constituency betting...
  • FPT
    TimS said:

    A spectacularly ungracious tweet from North Shropshire CLP illustrates the cultural mountain that much of grassroots Labour still needs to climb, if the party wants to be in power.

    https://twitter.com/nshropshire_clp/status/1471856620800032775?s=21

    It’s the kind of tweet you would never see from a Lib Dem constituency association (the worst they manage are cocky yah-boo gloats), nor indeed even the most knuckle-dragging Tory one. It contains within it several of the features that characterise the toxic far left:

    1. Entitlement: Labour owns all anti Tory votes so how dare another party pick them up
    2. Distaste for actual voters, especially floating ones: never mind that 60% of people on NS previously voted Tory. We don’t want them. Just our own core vote.
    3. Tribalism above electoral strategy: I think they would honestly have preferred a Tory hold if it meant Labour coming second
    4. Sanctimony and exclusivity: only we are pure, the rest are just Tory scum
    5. Petulance and bad grace: the default emotion seems for these people seems to be anger.

    The comments below the tweet are universally scathing, many from Labour supporters, but I expect the author considers that he or she did nothing wrong. This is what Starmer still evidently has to deal with in some CLPs.

    Your extensive post is an utter work of fiction compared to the few words actually posted, namely "Thank you
    @btwodo for a great campaign that didn't get the reward it so deserved - onwards and upwards when people realize the #FibDems are just yellow Tories.."

    There's nothing wrong with congratulating a hard working candidate and stating that he deserved better.

    And it's perfectly reasonable for Labour to continue to remind people that 5 years of very recent Conservative austerity was facilitated by the Lib Dems. When I read Telegraph commentators and the likes of John Redwood this week bemoaning the looser fiscal policies of Johnson compared to the hard line gruel that Osborne and Cameron served up, it only confirms that the 2010 to 2015 years really were true blue ones.

    Lib Dem hopes at the next GE will be focused entirely on picking up mainly Conservative votes in Conservative held seats. The reminder of their recent past probably helped the Lib Dems in N Shropshire and will help them in similar seats elsewhere.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,473
    edited December 2021
    OT but betting. Just tried to place an ante-post Yankee for the Cheltenham festival. Requested £5. Limited to 3p. That's three new pence, as we oldies used to call it. 1800 betting shops and 3p.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    On topic - we'll have to see how voters react to whoever becomes the next Tory leader. Boris has lost these voters, surely, but the party hasn't.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited December 2021

    Yup, red wall voters are not stupid in spite of what labour activists on twitter say.

    They know Boris is all piss and wind and let them down

    I suspect the Tories are looking to 2017 as the core and holding onto those seats while retaining a few won in 2019. As the likes of HYUFD made quite clear. They do not see the red wall as Tories merely people who lent their vote to get Brexit done.


    Does that work credibly numerically?
    Northern Research Group has 55 members.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 114
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    I have to say I'm much less convinced than @Quincel. This year's County Council elections didn't show a huge LD breakthrough in Elmbridge (unlike Guildford and Waverley). Indeed, seats like East Molesey & Esher, Hersham (can't think who the County Councillor is) and Walton remained solidly Conservative.

    Yes, the LDs improved their vote share but from the Conservative high water of 2017, that was almost a given and has really only taken the party back to pre-Coalition times.

    If I were to be considering an LD gain in Surrey, Guildford or Surrey SW would be where I'd be starting.

    My brother lives in Raab's constituency and tells me he isn't a popular MP. So much so that the thought of getting rid of him led my staunch Labour supporting brother actively to campaign against him after years of taking the mickey out of me for voting LD.

    The other complicating factor in Elmbridge is that there is quite a strong Residents group, which confuses local elections. But I agree that unless the Tories self-destruct in 2024 the last election was probably a high water mark for the LDs there.

    It may also be that if Raab moves elsewhere it will strengthen the Con vote. This happened in 1983 in Richmond when the local Tories dropped their unpopular MP (I think officially he 'retired') and just hung on.
  • That's brilliant news for you all @MaxPB.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    That was probably the only way we were ever going to get Warner.

    Maybe we should ask for caltrops to be put in the middle of the pitch to make things more even?
  • Good grief, what's going on. Already over 20 posts and every one *on topic* - what's PB coming to?

    I took control early on, but I expect to lose control as soon as somebody chucks a cricket ball or revs an F1 engine.

    BTW - your post was off-topic so on to the naughty step with you. :wink:
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757
    Roger said:

    So, does Raab have ANY redeeming attributes?

    He looks like Rik Mayall?
    ...'s character Alan B'stard. In fact he behaves like him too.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    Alongside all the boosters, we still seem to be giving about 20-30k first jabs per day on average.

    Obviously some of that will be children reaching 12 and becoming eligible but there must also be quite a few who are being persuaded even at this late stage to get vaccinated for the first time.

    I find that interesting.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    That's brilliant news for you all @MaxPB.

    Yes, we've all been worried about my mum more than anyone else so for her tests to have gone negative again is a real relief and for my dad to still not have caught it is a lesson on why to get a booster.

    Feeling any better today yourself? I have to say tracking the progress with LFTs is a really interesting exercise, I think the total length of my infection is about 5 days so far and I'm clearly coming to the end of it.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 114
    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    So, does Raab have ANY redeeming attributes?

    I wondered if perhaps he was the first Jewish Foreign Secretary, but then I remembered the Marquis of Reading in 1931 and Sir Malcolm Rifkind from 1995-97.
    Then I remembered the Marquess of Reading in 1931.
    Honestly. How could any self-respecting PBer forget?? ;)
    You did, I'm afraid, manage to forget Reading (Samuel)'s successor, Sir John Simon,
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,920
    Dura_Ace said:

    So, does Raab have ANY redeeming attributes?

    Very anti fox hunting so I'll give him credit for having a scintilla of integrity on that issue.
    Yes, the chair of the Conservative Animal Welfare Foundation (who have been remarkably effective) lives in his patch and rates him highly on a whole range of welfare issues. He was frankly out of his depth at the Foreign Office, though.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,124
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    I had wondered in the previous thread, what self-respecting constituency would want someone as apparently vacuous as Raaab. Then someone mentioned Chris Grayling's constituency. Raab could be an upgrade....

    Not really. Grayling at least knew what ferries were, even if he didn't know which ports they used.
    Just maybe Grayling has some vague idea of his limitations; Raab clearly doesn't. A case study in Dunning-Kruger. More baffling is why anyone ever rated him. He once got considerable approbation on these pages.

    On this topic, after two challenging years how would I now rate Johnson's cabinet and where have I changed my mind?

    Sharma and Zahawi have impressed in their roles. Gove gets an upgrade for being the only one with any kind of vision in spite of his flaws. Sunak gets a downgrade for the opposite reason. Hancock downgraded from mediocre to abysmal. Wallace I didn't know anything about and is still a bit of a cypher, but of probably OK. Javid came on later and is also OK.

    I thought the rest, unless I have missed any, were literally worse than useless. I haven't changed my mind. If I inherited that team I would look to get rid of them all at the first opportunity. Especially Johnson.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Good grief, what's going on. Already over 20 posts and every one *on topic* - what's PB coming to?

    LET'S TALK ABOUT BOTTOMS
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    Good grief, what's going on. Already over 20 posts and every one *on topic* - what's PB coming to?

    I took control early on, but I expect to lose control as soon as somebody chucks a cricket ball or revs an F1 engine.

    BTW - your post was off-topic so on to the naughty step with you. :wink:
    I will try to use the naughty step time to reflect on my poor behaviour. 😜
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    15m
    Told emergency Covid Cabinet call happening in next few hours

    Cabinet sources expect they will be primed for the possibility of further restrictions
  • dixiedean said:

    Altrincham and Sale West is one to watch.
    Graham Brady likely to get a P45 amongst his letters. At a stretch Macclesfield too.
    Both are moving from Cheshire ish Uber Tory to more like Manchester.
    How are boundary changes being factored in? V important for constituency betting...

    My old constituency. I used to talk to Graham Brady at election counts. We got on rather well.

    Sale West is largely very leafy except perhaps for Broadheath and the RaceCourse estate. I knew the Labour candidate Jane Baugh, but I knew her husband much, much better and often shared drinks with him at his local where he hung out with the LibDem mob.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    eek said:


    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    15m
    Told emergency Covid Cabinet call happening in next few hours

    Cabinet sources expect they will be primed for the possibility of further restrictions

    Cue a major explosion of @Philip_Thompson, @MaxPB, @HYUFD and other volatile ordnance.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    Leon said:

    Good grief, what's going on. Already over 20 posts and every one *on topic* - what's PB coming to?

    LET'S TALK ABOUT BOTTOMS
    Bugger off!
  • Beyond "get Brexit done", as I have remarked on before, the Tories seem completely out of ideas.

    Housing, where is the big plan?

    Cost of living, where is the big plan?

    Climate change, where is the big plan?

    Transport, where is the big plan?

    They have this massive majority and yet I can't see a single thing they've actually used it for.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    I had wondered in the previous thread, what self-respecting constituency would want someone as apparently vacuous as Raaab. Then someone mentioned Chris Grayling's constituency. Raab could be an upgrade....

    Not really. Grayling at least knew what ferries were, even if he didn't know which ports they used.
    Just maybe Grayling has some vague idea of his limitations; Raab clearly doesn't. A case study in Dunning-Kruger. More baffling is why anyone ever rated him. He once got considerable approbation on these pages.

    On this topic, after two challenging years how would I now rate Johnson's cabinet and where have I changed my mind?

    Sharma and Zahawi have impressed in their roles. Gove gets an upgrade for being the only one with any kind of vision in spite of his flaws. Sunak gets a downgrade for the opposite reason. Hancock downgraded from mediocre to abysmal. Wallace I didn't know anything about and is still a bit of a cypher, but of probably OK. Javid came on later and is also OK.

    I thought the rest, unless I have missed any, were literally worse than useless. I haven't changed my mind. If I inherited that team I would look to get rid of them all at the first opportunity. Especially Johnson.
    That a nonentity like Raab is considered Cabinet material, let alone as Deputy PM really does show how pisspoor the current Parliamentary Conservative party are.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    Alongside all the boosters, we still seem to be giving about 20-30k first jabs per day on average.

    Obviously some of that will be children reaching 12 and becoming eligible but there must also be quite a few who are being persuaded even at this late stage to get vaccinated for the first time.

    I find that interesting.

    What's more interesting is that with the big media blitz to get boosters the first and second dose rate has picked up from about 150k per week each to about 250k per week for firsts and 300k per week for seconds. It vindicates those of us who have been saying the government got complacent over the vaccine drive after they completed groups 1-9. The current war footing on vaccination should have been kept for the whole year.

    A friend of a friend just got her second dose done months after her first according to the friend, basically she thought because she missed the second dose appointment she wasn't eligible anymore and didn't talk to anyone about it then just forgot about it. It was only a few days ago when my friend asked if she got boosted yet that she said about her second dose. Unsurprisingly my friend told her to book in the second dose appointment ASAP and she got one for the next day.
  • Leon said:

    Good grief, what's going on. Already over 20 posts and every one *on topic* - what's PB coming to?

    LET'S TALK ABOUT BOTTOMS
    Rik Mayall again?
  • https://twitter.com/dinosofos/status/1472149263786426369

    Camilla is a crap journalist and has been for years, anyone want to claim otherwise?
  • pingping Posts: 1,679
    Just read the harrowing BBC long read on Star Hobson;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-59599884

    This is even more damning on social services than the Arthur Labinjo-Hughes case. I don’t know the solution but we have to, somehow, do better.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 114
    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    I had wondered in the previous thread, what self-respecting constituency would want someone as apparently vacuous as Raaab. Then someone mentioned Chris Grayling's constituency. Raab could be an upgrade....

    Not really. Grayling at least knew what ferries were, even if he didn't know which ports they used.
    Just maybe Grayling has some vague idea of his limitations; Raab clearly doesn't. A case study in Dunning-Kruger. More baffling is why anyone ever rated him. He once got considerable approbation on these pages.

    On this topic, after two challenging years how would I now rate Johnson's cabinet and where have I changed my mind?

    Sharma and Zahawi have impressed in their roles. Gove gets an upgrade for being the only one with any kind of vision in spite of his flaws. Sunak gets a downgrade for the opposite reason. Hancock downgraded from mediocre to abysmal. Wallace I didn't know anything about and is still a bit of a cypher, but of probably OK. Javid came on later and is also OK.

    I thought the rest, unless I have missed any, were literally worse than useless. I haven't changed my mind. If I inherited that team I would look to get rid of them all at the first opportunity. Especially Johnson.
    I'd agree with your assessment. Sajid Javid seems better rather than worse but I don't think he'd shine in a competent government. Some of the cabinet are anonymous, which suggests vaguely mediocre rather than actively useless. Gove for me is the interesting one, he is the only minister with significant experience and it shows, even if other aspects of his personality and style repel.

    On Wallace, I have come across him in a professional capacity and he seemed competent. However this government is so thin on ability that it is the quality of the others that makes him stand out, a bit like Javid.
  • Javid was in the Cameron cabinets, he was pretty anonymous there?
  • ydoethur said:

    It seems to me that long term the 2019 strategy ends in defeat

    All political strategies end in defeat in democratic systems. Labour in 1964, the Tories in 1979, Labour in 1997 - it won them power but in the end it cost them power again.

    The question is, how long does it keep working, how badly does it end and what do you do next?

    This doesn't look to be working for long, it's clearly not going to end well.

    But most of all the Tories are clearly completely lost on what to do next. They seem to have been so obsessed with sorting out Europe for its own sake they forgot that actually there is a whole set of issues that they are barely aware of and need addressing.
    There's some interesting psychology there, I reckon.

    Obviously, if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other looks like a winner, the Conservatives will dump BoJo, airbrush him from history, new leader etc...

    But what if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other doesn't look like winning, but does look like losing less badly? What will the party do? What will AN Other do?

    And what if BoJo snaps and goes off in a huff because everyone is being so mean to him?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,083
    Has anyone considered the welfare of the players in day night test matches? When are they supposed to have lunch? Or is it replaced with supper?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    ping said:

    Just read the harrowing BBC long read on Star Hobson;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-59599884

    This is even more damning on social services than the Arthur Labinjo-Hughes case. I don’t know the solution but we have to, somehow, do better.

    The state of Child Protection services in Bradford does sound parlous:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/17/scariest-place-ive-worked-social-worker-recalls-stint-in-bradford
  • https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-makes-key-brexit-concession-european-judges-northern-ireland-push-deal-1358164

    Johnson said he'd get Brexit done, so it's no surprise nobody cares about this anymore - and he can now just back down on any lines he had and maybe make the deal he "negotiated" (stole) from Theresa May a bit better
  • ydoethur said:

    It seems to me that long term the 2019 strategy ends in defeat

    All political strategies end in defeat in democratic systems. Labour in 1964, the Tories in 1979, Labour in 1997 - it won them power but in the end it cost them power again.

    The question is, how long does it keep working, how badly does it end and what do you do next?

    This doesn't look to be working for long, it's clearly not going to end well.

    But most of all the Tories are clearly completely lost on what to do next. They seem to have been so obsessed with sorting out Europe for its own sake they forgot that actually there is a whole set of issues that they are barely aware of and need addressing.
    There's some interesting psychology there, I reckon.

    Obviously, if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other looks like a winner, the Conservatives will dump BoJo, airbrush him from history, new leader etc...

    But what if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other doesn't look like winning, but does look like losing less badly? What will the party do? What will AN Other do?

    And what if BoJo snaps and goes off in a huff because everyone is being so mean to him?
    Well they never replaced John Major despite being 30 points behind, why are people so confident they'll get rid of BoJo?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Er. 4th.

    As the Lord said unto Moses: 'Come forth!'

    Which was as well because third would have been beyond him.
    Cheeky.

    Go 4th and multiply .... :smile:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    ydoethur said:

    It seems to me that long term the 2019 strategy ends in defeat

    All political strategies end in defeat in democratic systems. Labour in 1964, the Tories in 1979, Labour in 1997 - it won them power but in the end it cost them power again.

    The question is, how long does it keep working, how badly does it end and what do you do next?

    This doesn't look to be working for long, it's clearly not going to end well.

    But most of all the Tories are clearly completely lost on what to do next. They seem to have been so obsessed with sorting out Europe for its own sake they forgot that actually there is a whole set of issues that they are barely aware of and need addressing.
    There's some interesting psychology there, I reckon.

    Obviously, if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other looks like a winner, the Conservatives will dump BoJo, airbrush him from history, new leader etc...

    But what if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other doesn't look like winning, but does look like losing less badly? What will the party do? What will AN Other do?

    And what if BoJo snaps and goes off in a huff because everyone is being so mean to him?
    Well they never replaced John Major despite being 30 points behind, why are people so confident they'll get rid of BoJo?
    The reason Major was not replaced was that all the contenders were even worse. The Tory party was that toxic by the mid nineties.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    On fish.

    Fish fish Fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish !

    (Instructing bloke called Fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish to go and catch his supper.)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,177

    eek said:


    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    15m
    Told emergency Covid Cabinet call happening in next few hours

    Cabinet sources expect they will be primed for the possibility of further restrictions

    Cue a major explosion of @Philip_Thompson, @MaxPB, @HYUFD and other volatile ordnance.
    They can try and impose restrictions.

    Most of us will just crack on regardless.
  • Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    It seems to me that long term the 2019 strategy ends in defeat

    All political strategies end in defeat in democratic systems. Labour in 1964, the Tories in 1979, Labour in 1997 - it won them power but in the end it cost them power again.

    The question is, how long does it keep working, how badly does it end and what do you do next?

    This doesn't look to be working for long, it's clearly not going to end well.

    But most of all the Tories are clearly completely lost on what to do next. They seem to have been so obsessed with sorting out Europe for its own sake they forgot that actually there is a whole set of issues that they are barely aware of and need addressing.
    There's some interesting psychology there, I reckon.

    Obviously, if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other looks like a winner, the Conservatives will dump BoJo, airbrush him from history, new leader etc...

    But what if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other doesn't look like winning, but does look like losing less badly? What will the party do? What will AN Other do?

    And what if BoJo snaps and goes off in a huff because everyone is being so mean to him?
    Well they never replaced John Major despite being 30 points behind, why are people so confident they'll get rid of BoJo?
    The reason Major was not replaced was that all the contenders were even worse. The Tory party was that toxic by the mid nineties.
    I am suggesting that the contenders will be even worse, do we think Sunak will continue the Johnson policies?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Mortimer said:

    eek said:


    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    15m
    Told emergency Covid Cabinet call happening in next few hours

    Cabinet sources expect they will be primed for the possibility of further restrictions

    Cue a major explosion of @Philip_Thompson, @MaxPB, @HYUFD and other volatile ordnance.
    They can try and impose restrictions.

    Most of us will just crack on regardless.
    Yup, I think we'll just go back to being "a single household group" if there's more than six of us. How can they prove otherwise, maybe we live in a gigantic mansion?
  • PJHPJH Posts: 114
    PJH said:

    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    So, does Raab have ANY redeeming attributes?

    I wondered if perhaps he was the first Jewish Foreign Secretary, but then I remembered the Marquis of Reading in 1931 and Sir Malcolm Rifkind from 1995-97.
    Then I remembered the Marquess of Reading in 1931.
    Honestly. How could any self-respecting PBer forget?? ;)
    You did, I'm afraid, manage to forget Reading (Samuel)'s successor, Sir John Simon,
    Actually, no, my mistake, misremembered. I hereby disqualify myself from PB :-(
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651


    There's some interesting psychology there, I reckon.

    Obviously, if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other looks like a winner, the Conservatives will dump BoJo, airbrush him from history, new leader etc...

    But what if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other doesn't look like winning, but does look like losing less badly? What will the party do? What will AN Other do?

    And what if BoJo snaps and goes off in a huff because everyone is being so mean to him?

    I want Johnson to stay and I want him and his party to be comprehensively humiliated at the ballot box by the British electorate in a free and fair General Election.

    As to what the Conservative Party does after that in Opposition, that's for the Conservative Party to consider.
  • Beyond "get Brexit done", as I have remarked on before, the Tories seem completely out of ideas.

    Housing, where is the big plan?

    Cost of living, where is the big plan?

    Climate change, where is the big plan?

    Transport, where is the big plan?

    They have this massive majority and yet I can't see a single thing they've actually used it for.

    They have concentrated on reversing/weakening policies of the 2010-2015 government.
    "Suspending" the triple lock.
    Cutting overseas aid.
    Getting rid of the FTPA.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    edited December 2021

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    It seems to me that long term the 2019 strategy ends in defeat

    All political strategies end in defeat in democratic systems. Labour in 1964, the Tories in 1979, Labour in 1997 - it won them power but in the end it cost them power again.

    The question is, how long does it keep working, how badly does it end and what do you do next?

    This doesn't look to be working for long, it's clearly not going to end well.

    But most of all the Tories are clearly completely lost on what to do next. They seem to have been so obsessed with sorting out Europe for its own sake they forgot that actually there is a whole set of issues that they are barely aware of and need addressing.
    There's some interesting psychology there, I reckon.

    Obviously, if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other looks like a winner, the Conservatives will dump BoJo, airbrush him from history, new leader etc...

    But what if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other doesn't look like winning, but does look like losing less badly? What will the party do? What will AN Other do?

    And what if BoJo snaps and goes off in a huff because everyone is being so mean to him?
    Well they never replaced John Major despite being 30 points behind, why are people so confident they'll get rid of BoJo?
    The reason Major was not replaced was that all the contenders were even worse. The Tory party was that toxic by the mid nineties.
    I am suggesting that the contenders will be even worse, do we think Sunak will continue the Johnson policies?
    I am not really convinced that Johnson has policies. He is a cork in a storm, and lets everyone do as they like. Priti to hammer ancient rights and liberties, Truss to pretend that she is Mrs Thatcher, Sunak to pull the plug on levelling up, Dorries to display her ignorance etc etc.

    What distinctive policies does Johnson have?
  • ping said:

    Just read the harrowing BBC long read on Star Hobson;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-59599884

    This is even more damning on social services than the Arthur Labinjo-Hughes case. I don’t know the solution but we have to, somehow, do better.

    It is hard. No excuse but lockdown is probably a factor in increased risk of abuse as well as making it harder to detect. The risk is the pendulum swinging too far because there will be a lot of false positives. Even on this week's Masterchef final, one of the chefs was described as coming home from school covered in bruises and another spoke of constantly fighting with his brothers.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,831
    dixiedean said:

    Altrincham and Sale West is one to watch.
    Graham Brady likely to get a P45 amongst his letters. At a stretch Macclesfield too.
    Both are moving from Cheshire ish Uber Tory to more like Manchester.
    How are boundary changes being factored in? V important for constituency betting...

    Yeah I'd take almost any odds-against on A&SW. The demographics are great for Labour.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    It seems to me that long term the 2019 strategy ends in defeat

    All political strategies end in defeat in democratic systems. Labour in 1964, the Tories in 1979, Labour in 1997 - it won them power but in the end it cost them power again.

    The question is, how long does it keep working, how badly does it end and what do you do next?

    This doesn't look to be working for long, it's clearly not going to end well.

    But most of all the Tories are clearly completely lost on what to do next. They seem to have been so obsessed with sorting out Europe for its own sake they forgot that actually there is a whole set of issues that they are barely aware of and need addressing.
    There's some interesting psychology there, I reckon.

    Obviously, if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other looks like a winner, the Conservatives will dump BoJo, airbrush him from history, new leader etc...

    But what if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other doesn't look like winning, but does look like losing less badly? What will the party do? What will AN Other do?

    And what if BoJo snaps and goes off in a huff because everyone is being so mean to him?
    Well they never replaced John Major despite being 30 points behind, why are people so confident they'll get rid of BoJo?
    The reason Major was not replaced was that all the contenders were even worse. The Tory party was that toxic by the mid nineties.
    I am suggesting that the contenders will be even worse, do we think Sunak will continue the Johnson policies?
    I am not really convinced that Johnson has policies. He is a cork in a storm, and lets everyone do as they like. Priti to hammer ancient rights and liberties, Truss to pretend that she is Mrs Thatcher, Sunak to pull the plug on levelling up, Dorries to display her ignorance etc etc.

    What distinctive policies does Johnson have?
    Fair point - but will the contenders really be coming forward with more state spending and more levelling up? Surely it's got to be a reversion to Cameronite policies if Sunak wins
  • Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    It seems to me that long term the 2019 strategy ends in defeat

    All political strategies end in defeat in democratic systems. Labour in 1964, the Tories in 1979, Labour in 1997 - it won them power but in the end it cost them power again.

    The question is, how long does it keep working, how badly does it end and what do you do next?

    This doesn't look to be working for long, it's clearly not going to end well.

    But most of all the Tories are clearly completely lost on what to do next. They seem to have been so obsessed with sorting out Europe for its own sake they forgot that actually there is a whole set of issues that they are barely aware of and need addressing.
    There's some interesting psychology there, I reckon.

    Obviously, if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other looks like a winner, the Conservatives will dump BoJo, airbrush him from history, new leader etc...

    But what if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other doesn't look like winning, but does look like losing less badly? What will the party do? What will AN Other do?

    And what if BoJo snaps and goes off in a huff because everyone is being so mean to him?
    Well they never replaced John Major despite being 30 points behind, why are people so confident they'll get rid of BoJo?
    The reason Major was not replaced was that all the contenders were even worse. The Tory party was that toxic by the mid nineties.
    Partly that, and party nobody wanted to go down to inevitable defeat in 1997. Everyone was focusing on taking over to rebuild in opposition. Which partly turned a defeat into a rout.

    If you haven't read Gyles Brandreth's account of his time as an MP, "Breaking the Code", it's awfully good.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617

    eek said:


    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    15m
    Told emergency Covid Cabinet call happening in next few hours

    Cabinet sources expect they will be primed for the possibility of further restrictions

    Cue a major explosion of @Philip_Thompson, @MaxPB, @HYUFD and other volatile ordnance.
    That circuit breaker rumour, circulating in The Times, I believe?

    Carefully calibrated measures to ensure we come as close to a lockdown as the Government can get away with, without closing businesses and being forced to bring back furlough and the rest of the support mechanisms?

    Predictions:

    1. It will have no measurable effect on the virus
    2. It will bankrupt a lot of otherwise viable businesses, for no compensating gain
    3. As well as Philip and Max, half the Parliamentary Tory Party will go into meltdown. Everyone who rebelled against vaxports will do so again plus, presumably, several dozen other MPs who'd assumed that they weren't going to be served another big helping of shit gateau about five minutes after the last one
    4. HYUFD will parrot the same "there is no lockdown" party line a thousand times, whilst the hospitality industry basically self-combusts

    Or maybe everyone will agree that more restrictions are just what we need, Sunak will bail the businesses again, and the hospitals won't burn?

    Not 100% convinced.
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 220
    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    eek said:


    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    15m
    Told emergency Covid Cabinet call happening in next few hours

    Cabinet sources expect they will be primed for the possibility of further restrictions

    Cue a major explosion of @Philip_Thompson, @MaxPB, @HYUFD and other volatile ordnance.
    They can try and impose restrictions.

    Most of us will just crack on regardless.
    Yup, I think we'll just go back to being "a single household group" if there's more than six of us. How can they prove otherwise, maybe we live in a gigantic mansion?
    Sounds like a decent reality TV show in the making. I hear the Love Island villa is free...

    I've grudgingly curtailed what little pre-Xmas socialising I had plans to limit the risk of infecting my parents (both in their 60's, one in the clinically vulnerable category), but seriously, if the government thinks I'm going to abide by another lockdown after two years of this, and three vaccinations, they can do one.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,992
    edited December 2021

    Can’t wait for @HYUFD to redefine his redline so that the government lockdown isn’t in fact a lockdown and therefore retains his full support.

    As a family we have decided to effectively go into our own voluntary lockdown and have cancelled pre Christmas parties and gatherings reducing as much social contact as possible so all ten of us can be together on Christmas day

  • If we're going to go full on lockdown we need to go full on lockdown, not some sort of silly halfway house
  • "Mid-term defeats didn’t really do much to May, Cameron, or Blair"

    Erm. Both May and Cameron were fatally wounded and limped on for a time as lesser figures in lesser governments before getting shoved out.

    The point about high water mark is the key here I think. Blair had his zenith and when he realised the writing was on the wall he exited stage left.

    Boris Johnson is all downhill from here. He will take the tory party down with him unless they do something about it but even if they do, I doubt it will halt the slide away from power.

    Whatever you bet on for 2024, any sort of outright tory majority shouldn't be part of it.
  • stodge said:


    There's some interesting psychology there, I reckon.

    Obviously, if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other looks like a winner, the Conservatives will dump BoJo, airbrush him from history, new leader etc...

    But what if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other doesn't look like winning, but does look like losing less badly? What will the party do? What will AN Other do?

    And what if BoJo snaps and goes off in a huff because everyone is being so mean to him?

    I want Johnson to stay and I want him and his party to be comprehensively humiliated at the ballot box by the British electorate in a free and fair General Election.

    As to what the Conservative Party does after that in Opposition, that's for the Conservative Party to consider.
    In those circumstances I hope the country votes in a majority lib dem government
  • I see we are back to SAGE members being all over the media "speaking in a personal capacity" shouting for more measures and more lockdown.

    It's like a bad dream that never ends.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,177
    edited December 2021

    Can’t wait for @HYUFD to redefine his redline so that the government lockdown isn’t in fact a lockdown and therefore retains his full support.

    As a family we have decided to effectively go into our own voluntary lockdown and have cancelled pre Christmas parties and gatherings reducing as much social contact as possible so all ten of us can be together on Christmas day

    Good for you.

    As a family we have decided to carry on regardless.

    Because some semblance of normality is more important to us.

    Isn't personal freedom great? We should stop telling people how to live their lives and pretending we can control a virus,
  • stodge said:


    There's some interesting psychology there, I reckon.

    Obviously, if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other looks like a winner, the Conservatives will dump BoJo, airbrush him from history, new leader etc...

    But what if BoJo looks like a loser and AN Other doesn't look like winning, but does look like losing less badly? What will the party do? What will AN Other do?

    And what if BoJo snaps and goes off in a huff because everyone is being so mean to him?


    As to what the Conservative Party does after that in Opposition, that's for the Conservative Party to consider.
    I think there will be a bloodbath. People like PT in the party will finally fess up to themselves and others that they have been living a complete lie, or rather a smorgasbord of lies.

    The soft and centre Euro left will be angry but it's not like the right of the party are happy either. Read comments on tory websites and you'll see just how utterly pissed off they are with Johnson's 'left-wing' agenda on tax and spend etc.
  • Cabinet will get a data briefing from scientists — new SAGE advice yesterday said new measures were needed per BBC leak

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1472170216604020738?s=20

    "data" or one of the "models" (sic):

    Wait, just reread and one of their sensitivity analyses assumes 2-dose AZ VE against death = 29%? I mean what the fuck is this total bullshit?
    https://twitter.com/RufusSG/status/1471977186542469122

    Page 31:

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2021-12-16-COVID19-Report-48.pdf
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 709

    If we're going to go full on lockdown we need to go full on lockdown, not some sort of silly halfway house

    Complete with furlough and support for businesses.

    Got my pre-lockdown haircut today and the barber was radiating anxiety, poor bloke. Said he'd experienced a huge rush in the last week as everyone had the same idea as me.
  • Mortimer said:

    Can’t wait for @HYUFD to redefine his redline so that the government lockdown isn’t in fact a lockdown and therefore retains his full support.

    As a family we have decided to effectively go into our own voluntary lockdown and have cancelled pre Christmas parties and gatherings reducing as much social contact as possible so all ten of us can be together on Christmas day



    Isn't personal freedom great? We should stop telling people how to live their lives and pretending we can control a virus,
    Utter, and frankly quite evil, tosh.

    We have a responsibility to look out for one another in this country and world. Your sort of utterly selfish attitude can lead people to die.

    We need to be responsible and try to contain this for as long as possible in order to get as many people booster jabbed as possible and to protect the NHS, which I and others care about even if you don't.
  • I see we are back to SAGE members being all over the media "speaking in a personal capacity" shouting for more measures and more lockdown.

    It's like a bad dream that never ends.

    What are the exit conditions for a proposed lockdown? We are presumably waiting for something to make it okay again, but what? In 2-3 months time the vulnerable may well be needing another round of boosters....
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,831
    Heathener said:

    "Mid-term defeats didn’t really do much to May, Cameron, or Blair"

    Erm. Both May and Cameron were fatally wounded and limped on for a time as lesser figures in lesser governments before getting shoved out.

    The point about high water mark is the key here I think. Blair had his zenith and when he realised the writing was on the wall he exited stage left.

    Boris Johnson is all downhill from here. He will take the tory party down with him unless they do something about it but even if they do, I doubt it will halt the slide away from power.

    Whatever you bet on for 2024, any sort of outright tory majority shouldn't be part of it.

    Cameron had no by-election losses after 2015, and prior to 2015 he lost two massive swings to UKIP before winning an unexpected majority. May got hammered in Richmond Park only to make a historic mid-term gain in Copeland. Post-2017 she was in a terrible state from the general election not any by-elections, and again she suffered no by-election losses from 2017 to being ousted.
  • I hope this emergency Cabinet meeting is concentrating on saving hospitality from extinction, rather than just looking yet again at models.


    Oyster Reach Beefeater Ipswich
    @Restaurant_mgr
    ·
    32m
    Replying to
    @EssexPR
    Over 300 #cancellations and counting this weekend alone, dread answering the phone now
This discussion has been closed.