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Eyes on the Blue Wall: Raab is in danger – politicalbetting.com

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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    It really isn't. Stretch targets are fine.

    I think as much an issue as capacity, is demand e.g. you can't have your booster if you had covid within 30 days. Well lots of people are currently getting it.
    That's a really good point.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    edited December 2021
    *🐎 update

    Champ the wonder horse 😆
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited December 2021
    Aslan said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:


    Much truth in this. Two comments. Matthew Goodwin is a little more thoughtful than described here.

    The big thing he misses is competence. With Post-Brexit + pandemic to sort the government has to exude competence. Stuff is bound to happen, but the number of unnecessary errors points to a significant intellectual and moral gap.

    On Brexit, this is a special case. Given the politics of the UK as of 2000-now and continuing, no satisfactory EU/UK settlement is likely. getting out of a 40 year alliance will always take years. Parliament, with a Remain majority failed to agree a sensible compromise timetable (eg Norway for Now) leaving no choice between a fairly hard Brexit and rejoin. Neither can work.

    It may mean the Tories are replaced by another lot next time, but the problem of there being no acceptable solution (including status quo and status quo ante) will remain.

    If the Lab/rainbow alliance can exude competence and moderation they will win.

    I think that if Labour offered the EU a customs union (thereby eliminating most of the Northern Ireland issues) and general sensible cooperation on issues of joint concern there would be a warm response from the EU, and only a smallish minority of British voters would be really upset.
    That’s been the obvious compromise and common sense approach since Mrs May took office, and her term would have gone very differently had she spent her honeymoon capital on telling her nutters some home truths and steering the country in that direction. Sooner or later we’ll get a government that recognises that Norway or Switzerland offer more realistic examples than Singapore.
    A sad thing / true thing is Labour can offer whatever on the EU bar Free Movement. Ditto Mrs May back then for that matter. There were tons of reasons for the Leave vote but FM was the biggest. May would have been toast if she'd tried to retain it in any Brexit deal and Labour must steer clear of it to have a chance in GE24. Seems little doubt that SKS realizes this.
    The polling on Brexit shows the most important things were (1) wanting laws to be made in the UK and (2) immigration. In that order. Starmer will lose any gains if he does either or looks like he is going to do either.
    But (2) is far more clearcut. Free Movement is totemic and not open to fudge. (1) is in the eye of the beholder to a great extent.
  • Should the people who treat the NHS as a religion, and are happy to lock down the country to keep it safe, be prepared to pay a tithe to support it?

    It's not the case of treating the NHS as a religion. It's a case of the fact that I might need the NHS at any time, and I'd quite like the wards not to be so filled with Covid patients that I cannot be treated.

    Now, the real people who should pay a tithe are the anti-vaxxers ...
    Absolutely.

    You could also sweeten the pill by using the cash to pay people a reward for getting vaccinated going forward.

    Say £100 initially for each month you remain unvaccinated or fail to get an overdue 2nd dose. £20 for each jab you receive.

  • Good Law Project
    @GoodLawProject
    NEW: Met Police refusing to investigate No 10 gatherings likely to be unlawful

    https://twitter.com/GoodLawProject/status/1471859932215615497

    ==

    I hope he gets his fox this time.
  • Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.

    If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
    It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
    They were 'following the science'.

    Which is what you demand they do when they ignore the scientists.

    You'll blame the government whatever decision they take.
  • Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    Exactly. Stretch target, and builds up a solid volume of jabs in a short time to build on the solid start the booster programme made.
  • Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    Exactly. Stretch target, and builds up a solid volume of jabs in a short time to build on the solid start the booster programme made.
    MaxPB is right about also playing the scarcity psychology tricks.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.

    If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
    The purpose of a target is to focus minds and resource on hitting it. If it's not realistic it's not really a target.
  • The same critical droning was made about the stretch targets set in both testing back in Spring 2020 and the first wave of vaccinations in Spring 2021.

  • #OmicronVariant latest information

    10,059 additional confirmed cases of the #Omicron variant of COVID-19 have been reported across the UK.

    Confirmed Omicron cases in the UK now total 24,968.

    https://twitter.com/UKHSA/status/1472212042773848066?s=20
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    kinabalu said:

    Aslan said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:


    Much truth in this. Two comments. Matthew Goodwin is a little more thoughtful than described here.

    The big thing he misses is competence. With Post-Brexit + pandemic to sort the government has to exude competence. Stuff is bound to happen, but the number of unnecessary errors points to a significant intellectual and moral gap.

    On Brexit, this is a special case. Given the politics of the UK as of 2000-now and continuing, no satisfactory EU/UK settlement is likely. getting out of a 40 year alliance will always take years. Parliament, with a Remain majority failed to agree a sensible compromise timetable (eg Norway for Now) leaving no choice between a fairly hard Brexit and rejoin. Neither can work.

    It may mean the Tories are replaced by another lot next time, but the problem of there being no acceptable solution (including status quo and status quo ante) will remain.

    If the Lab/rainbow alliance can exude competence and moderation they will win.

    I think that if Labour offered the EU a customs union (thereby eliminating most of the Northern Ireland issues) and general sensible cooperation on issues of joint concern there would be a warm response from the EU, and only a smallish minority of British voters would be really upset.
    That’s been the obvious compromise and common sense approach since Mrs May took office, and her term would have gone very differently had she spent her honeymoon capital on telling her nutters some home truths and steering the country in that direction. Sooner or later we’ll get a government that recognises that Norway or Switzerland offer more realistic examples than Singapore.
    A sad thing / true thing is Labour can offer whatever on the EU bar Free Movement. Ditto Mrs May back then for that matter. There were tons of reasons for the Leave vote but FM was the biggest. May would have been toast if she'd tried to retain it in any Brexit deal and Labour must steer clear of it to have a chance in GE24. Seems little doubt that SKS realizes this.
    The polling on Brexit shows the most important things were (1) wanting laws to be made in the UK and (2) immigration. In that order. Starmer will lose any gains if he does either or looks like he is going to do either.
    But (2) is far more clearcut. Free Movement is totemic and not open to fudge. (1) is in the eye of the beholder to a great extent.
    Perhaps but people will make their minds up pretty quickly if the Tories run a campaign on "Starmer, the man that tried to overturn Brexit, is now going to hand back power over British laws to the EU" and the BBC fact checking is going to have to say this is true.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    kinabalu said:

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.

    If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
    The purpose of a target is to focus minds and resource on hitting it. If it's not realistic it's not really a target.
    It's more like a stretch goal, the MVP is to get to over 95% of over 40s done by Wednesday. I think we will get there too.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Carnyx said:

    Big super spreader event going on in London today with 1000s protesting vaccine passports......

    Do the Darwin Awards issue a group prize?
    They've given up bothering with covid, AFAICS.

    I wonder if it is because "Darwin Award winners eliminate themselves in an extraordinarily idiotic manner"? Covidiots are just too common?

    https://darwinawards.com/
    https://darwinawards.com/rules/

    PS. Also: winners, in complete contrast to Nobel laureates, must be dead. (Or, presumably, castrated etc.)
    Plenty of anti-vaxxers are qualifying daily.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited December 2021
    We are observing doubling time central estimates of less than 2 days for every region except the South West. This may be related to poor PCR gene target reporting coverage in this region.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1042221/20211218_OS_Daily-Omicron-Overview.pdf
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376


    Good Law Project
    @GoodLawProject
    NEW: Met Police refusing to investigate No 10 gatherings likely to be unlawful

    https://twitter.com/GoodLawProject/status/1471859932215615497

    ==

    I hope he gets his fox this time.

    At the bottom of the article is a request for cash,

    Dig deep people.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,990
    edited December 2021
    Could we get Boris folding and lockdown after Boxing Day?

    I always thought that they would go for "enhanced restrictions" after New Years, but it seems like everything is moving even faster, the briefings, the leaks, the media, SAGE "speaking in a personal capacity" and iSAGE are all over the media, its all pushing for do something now.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited December 2021

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    It really isn't. Stretch targets are fine.

    I think as much an issue as capacity, is demand e.g. you can't have your booster if you had covid within 30 days. Well lots of people are currently getting it.
    Stretch target is a euphemism for 'can't be hit without fiddling the numbers'.
  • (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Taz said:


    Good Law Project
    @GoodLawProject
    NEW: Met Police refusing to investigate No 10 gatherings likely to be unlawful

    https://twitter.com/GoodLawProject/status/1471859932215615497

    ==

    I hope he gets his fox this time.

    At the bottom of the article is a request for cash,

    Dig deep people.
    Do you know what price the Met have demanded to investigate? Might help with the fundraising.

    Oh sorry, is that not what it's for?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Carnyx said:

    Big super spreader event going on in London today with 1000s protesting vaccine passports......

    Do the Darwin Awards issue a group prize?
    They've given up bothering with covid, AFAICS.

    I wonder if it is because "Darwin Award winners eliminate themselves in an extraordinarily idiotic manner"? Covidiots are just too common?

    https://darwinawards.com/
    https://darwinawards.com/rules/

    PS. Also: winners, in complete contrast to Nobel laureates, must be dead. (Or, presumably, castrated etc.)
    Plenty of anti-vaxxers are qualifying daily.....
    The DAs do have a high bar for awards. For instance, plenty of people die in autoerotic hangings, but they don't qualify.
  • Could we get Boris folding and lockdown after Boxing Day?

    I always thought that they would go for "enhanced restrictions" after New Years, but it seems like everything is moving even faster, the briefings, the leaks, the media, its all pushing for do something now.

    Who knows with the wonky shopping trolley? No doubt the Cabinet are being treated to a ton of scary graphics with exponentials all over them. One never knows, perhaps one or two of the graphs might even have some relationship with reality.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908

    Roger said:

    So, does Raab have ANY redeeming attributes?

    He looks like Rik Mayall?
    ...'s character Alan B'stard. In fact he behaves like him too.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCHDBaHdSEI
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    Should the people who treat the NHS as a religion, and are happy to lock down the country to keep it safe, be prepared to pay a tithe to support it?

    It's not the case of treating the NHS as a religion. It's a case of the fact that I might need the NHS at any time, and I'd quite like the wards not to be so filled with Covid patients that I cannot be treated.

    Now, the real people who should pay a tithe are the anti-vaxxers ...
    What is the difference between the ward being full and your cancer operation being postponed for a year.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited December 2021

    Could we get Boris folding and lockdown after Boxing Day?

    I always thought that they would go for "enhanced restrictions" after New Years, but it seems like everything is moving even faster, the briefings, the leaks, the media, SAGE "speaking in a personal capacity" and iSAGE are all over the media, its all pushing for do something now.

    Mate I don't think it's healthy your constant catastrophism. You would probably be best to take a break from PB. I know you and @Leon come here to get comforted and it fills a psychological need but better yet would be to take a break.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Aslan said:

    kinabalu said:

    Aslan said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:


    Much truth in this. Two comments. Matthew Goodwin is a little more thoughtful than described here.

    The big thing he misses is competence. With Post-Brexit + pandemic to sort the government has to exude competence. Stuff is bound to happen, but the number of unnecessary errors points to a significant intellectual and moral gap.

    On Brexit, this is a special case. Given the politics of the UK as of 2000-now and continuing, no satisfactory EU/UK settlement is likely. getting out of a 40 year alliance will always take years. Parliament, with a Remain majority failed to agree a sensible compromise timetable (eg Norway for Now) leaving no choice between a fairly hard Brexit and rejoin. Neither can work.

    It may mean the Tories are replaced by another lot next time, but the problem of there being no acceptable solution (including status quo and status quo ante) will remain.

    If the Lab/rainbow alliance can exude competence and moderation they will win.

    I think that if Labour offered the EU a customs union (thereby eliminating most of the Northern Ireland issues) and general sensible cooperation on issues of joint concern there would be a warm response from the EU, and only a smallish minority of British voters would be really upset.
    That’s been the obvious compromise and common sense approach since Mrs May took office, and her term would have gone very differently had she spent her honeymoon capital on telling her nutters some home truths and steering the country in that direction. Sooner or later we’ll get a government that recognises that Norway or Switzerland offer more realistic examples than Singapore.
    A sad thing / true thing is Labour can offer whatever on the EU bar Free Movement. Ditto Mrs May back then for that matter. There were tons of reasons for the Leave vote but FM was the biggest. May would have been toast if she'd tried to retain it in any Brexit deal and Labour must steer clear of it to have a chance in GE24. Seems little doubt that SKS realizes this.
    The polling on Brexit shows the most important things were (1) wanting laws to be made in the UK and (2) immigration. In that order. Starmer will lose any gains if he does either or looks like he is going to do either.
    But (2) is far more clearcut. Free Movement is totemic and not open to fudge. (1) is in the eye of the beholder to a great extent.
    Perhaps but people will make their minds up pretty quickly if the Tories run a campaign on "Starmer, the man that tried to overturn Brexit, is now going to hand back power over British laws to the EU" and the BBC fact checking is going to have to say this is true.
    Such a grey area though cf FM. I can't see many Leavers getting uptight about us - say - accepting EU standards on some worker & consumer protections in return for a trading advantage. But whatever, Starmer will be taking no chances on this as regards the next election. You won't be seeing much about the EU in the Labour manifesto.
  • ydoethur said:

    Taz said:


    Good Law Project
    @GoodLawProject
    NEW: Met Police refusing to investigate No 10 gatherings likely to be unlawful

    https://twitter.com/GoodLawProject/status/1471859932215615497

    ==

    I hope he gets his fox this time.

    At the bottom of the article is a request for cash,

    Dig deep people.
    Do you know what price the Met have demanded to investigate? Might help with the fundraising.

    Oh sorry, is that not what it's for?
    The contrast between photos of that young lass being pinned to the floor by a load of burly police officers for daring to break lockdown to attend the Sarah Everard vigil and a collective shrug of 'nothing to see here, gov' with respect to Downing Street must be doing a ton of damage to the Met's public reputation.

  • Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.

    If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
    It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
    Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.

    Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.

    Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.

    You partisanship some times is way OTT.
    Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,990
    edited December 2021
    TOPPING said:

    Could we get Boris folding and lockdown after Boxing Day?

    I always thought that they would go for "enhanced restrictions" after New Years, but it seems like everything is moving even faster, the briefings, the leaks, the media, SAGE "speaking in a personal capacity" and iSAGE are all over the media, its all pushing for do something now.

    Mate I don't think it's healthy your constant catastrophism. You would probably be best to take a break from PB. I know you and @Leon come here to get comforted and it fills a psychological need but better yet would be to take a break.
    It really isn't catastrophism. I am actually totally calm about everything. Boosters look highly effective against the big O and they are being rolled at very quickly. All very positive. And I don't for a second believe the end of the world is nigh scenarios from SAGE et al.

    As I say, I have consistently said I think we would have some enhanced restrictions from the New Year. Scotland and Wales have already gone earlier than that. I was right on that.

    What I am saying is I think it is going that way, and actually that has betting implications. If Boris tries this now, only a few days after the last controversial vote and while parliament isn't sitting, what are the back benchers going to do.

    In my mind it isn't now IF there will be further restrictions, it is when.
  • *🐎 update

    Champ the wonder horse 😆

    Did I hear a Horse? :)
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.

    Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.

    Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
  • Netherlands en route to a lockdown till mid-January.

    Everything to close - including schools - except essentials.

    https://twitter.com/remkorteweg/status/1472220270714920969?s=20
  • I think the naiveness for many is that it would all be over this year, not least because the Government kept saying it would.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited December 2021

    TOPPING said:

    Could we get Boris folding and lockdown after Boxing Day?

    I always thought that they would go for "enhanced restrictions" after New Years, but it seems like everything is moving even faster, the briefings, the leaks, the media, SAGE "speaking in a personal capacity" and iSAGE are all over the media, its all pushing for do something now.

    Mate I don't think it's healthy your constant catastrophism. You would probably be best to take a break from PB. I know you and @Leon come here to get comforted and it fills a psychological need but better yet would be to take a break.
    It really isn't catastrophism. I am actually totally calm about everything.

    What I am saying is I think it is going that way, and actually that has betting implications. If Boris tries this while parliament isn't sitting, what are the back benchers going to do.
    Sure it's about the betting.

    By all means carry on as you are but you might benefit from a break from it.

    How many hours have you been on PB straight today? All the catastrophising posts.

    I would never criticise someone for being on PB why look at me now. But you should consider it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,990
    edited December 2021

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.

    If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
    It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
    Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.

    Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.

    Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.

    You partisanship some times is way OTT.
    Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
    In this specific instance it isn't reasonable to expect a government to overturn the decision of an independent medical advisory committee. No sensible politician would, otherwise you get into Trump territory of advising bleach and giving anti-vaxxer massive amounts of ammunition.

    I have spent the past 2 years consistently pointing out the dumb shit the government have done time and time again. Go and check my 60k posts, there are absolutely loads of posts saying, FFS Boris has bottled a lockdown, he is leaving it too late. I was also massively critical of the idea of the tier system. I said we should have had border restrictions straight away during March 2020....I advocated for the sort of scheme Australia have employed....I said the government needed to kick SAGE up the arse in the summer and have them actually making a plan, when in fact they didn't meet for 2 months...

    I could go on and on and on.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Netherlands en route to a lockdown till mid-January.

    Everything to close - including schools - except essentials.

    https://twitter.com/remkorteweg/status/1472220270714920969?s=20

    INCLUDING SCHOOLS

    Fucking hell

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited December 2021

    Could we get Boris folding and lockdown after Boxing Day?

    I always thought that they would go for "enhanced restrictions" after New Years, but it seems like everything is moving even faster, the briefings, the leaks, the media, its all pushing for do something now.

    Who knows with the wonky shopping trolley? No doubt the Cabinet are being treated to a ton of scary graphics with exponentials all over them. One never knows, perhaps one or two of the graphs might even have some relationship with reality.
    That would be a dramatic break with tradition.

    I think the bigger problem really is that as we have seen time and again, there's very little value to any restrictions that don't involve closing schools. That's especially true if this variant is as infectious as we're being told.

    Several reasons for this. First of all, our school stock is far too old and badly built. It doesn't keep heat in, and it's inadequately ventilated, making it an ideal spreading vector. Secondly, class sizes are far too large (and frequently crammed into spaces designed for rather fewer children) so there's no prayer of social distancing. Thirdly, the vaccination programme in schools may have started but it's at best half arsed, and hardly any teenagers are properly double vaxxed, never mind boosted.

    When you put a load of unvaccinated people in close proximity in inadequately ventilated rooms, for some reason viruses spread fast. Well, call me Dr Surprised.

    And then they go home and spread it to the family...

    There isn't a meaningful way of mitigating it. All that bullshit over bubbles, masks, handsan and disinfectant was merely tinkering at the edges, as last year showed with such brutal clarity that even those imbeciles at the DfE finally got the message. Schools are open,or they're not.

    Therefore, the only way to get this virus under control if it surges in the short term (no pun intended, for once) is to shut schools as well. But the implications of this in terms of disruption to parents' work, to education, to safety of the vulnerable etc are so appalling that I don't believe Johnson will dare, and even if he did I don't think he'd get it past the Commons. (Leaving aside the chaotic and incompetent way the DfE has mismanaged remote learning.)

    In which case, frankly why bother shutting anything? It will make no difference whatsoever except to do a lot of wholly unnecessary economic damage.

    A bigger issue will undoubtedly be the numbers who have to close because of positive cases. Equally, that may be true for schools too.
  • Netherlands en route to a lockdown till mid-January.

    Everything to close - including schools - except essentials.

    https://twitter.com/remkorteweg/status/1472220270714920969?s=20

    Let's hope this doesn't give today's Cabinet any ideas.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited December 2021

    I think the naiveness for many is that it would all be over this year, not least because the Government kept saying it would.

    To be fair, whilst the emergence of variant like Omicron is not entirely surprising, we have been genuinely unlucky with its timing. It would be far less of a threat had it emerged a few months later after the Northern Hemisphere winter. And had it been even a month later then restrictions in late Jan would have been politically much easier for the Government
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Aslan said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.

    Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.

    Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
    Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited December 2021
    Aslan said:

    IanB2 said:



    I think that if Labour offered the EU a customs union (thereby eliminating most of the Northern Ireland issues) and general sensible cooperation on issues of joint concern there would be a warm response from the EU, and only a smallish minority of British voters would be really upset.

    That’s been the obvious compromise and common sense approach since Mrs May took office, and her term would have gone very differently had she spent her honeymoon capital on telling her nutters some home truths and steering the country in that direction. Sooner or later we’ll get a government that recognises that Norway or Switzerland offer more realistic examples than Singapore.
    So Labour would make us a rule taker from the EU with no input. And open up the flood gates on immigration too?

    Feels like the centrepiece of a Tory campaign.
    Brexit itself effectively makes the UK a rule taker without input. It's taking a long time for people to absorb that fact. Why do you think Johnson is calling off Article 16, giving the French all those fishing licences and accepting CE quality marks and EU REACH classifications? It's not out of any feeling of generosity to the more powerful player. It's because divergence or non-implementation comes with a cost that isn't worth paying. Eventually people will realise that and decide to formalise the adherence in exchange for commitments from the other side. Which is where preferential terms on customs etc come in.
    kinabalu said:

    Aslan said:



    The polling on Brexit shows the most important things were (1) wanting laws to be made in the UK and (2) immigration. In that order. Starmer will lose any gains if he does either or looks like he is going to do either.

    But (2) is far more clearcut. Free Movement is totemic and not open to fudge. (1) is in the eye of the beholder to a great extent.
    I think Freedom of Movement is open to some negotiation. The UK and EU have partnership agreements where they commit to treat the others citizens passing through in a particular way. A future agreement could be more liberal on this than the current arrangement.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.

    If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
    The purpose of a target is to focus minds and resource on hitting it. If it's not realistic it's not really a target.
    It's more like a stretch goal, the MVP is to get to over 95% of over 40s done by Wednesday. I think we will get there too.
    Way I see it is we need to do as many as we can as quick as we can. Put the resource in, get the systems and logistics in place, go for it. There's no magic number and setting one makes no difference. It's a distraction or even counterproductive to set a target that's "aspirational" as opposed to flowing from what you've set up.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:


    Good Law Project
    @GoodLawProject
    NEW: Met Police refusing to investigate No 10 gatherings likely to be unlawful

    https://twitter.com/GoodLawProject/status/1471859932215615497

    ==

    I hope he gets his fox this time.

    At the bottom of the article is a request for cash,

    Dig deep people.
    Do you know what price the Met have demanded to investigate? Might help with the fundraising.

    Oh sorry, is that not what it's for?
    The contrast between photos of that young lass being pinned to the floor by a load of burly police officers for daring to break lockdown to attend the Sarah Everard vigil and a collective shrug of 'nothing to see here, gov' with respect to Downing Street must be doing a ton of damage to the Met's public reputation.

    Not really. I mean, their reputation was of being a bunch of lying, corrupt, gutless, incompetent, lazy, rude, stupid jobsworth c***s.

    What's happened has merely confirmed what we already knew.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,990
    edited December 2021
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Could we get Boris folding and lockdown after Boxing Day?

    I always thought that they would go for "enhanced restrictions" after New Years, but it seems like everything is moving even faster, the briefings, the leaks, the media, SAGE "speaking in a personal capacity" and iSAGE are all over the media, its all pushing for do something now.

    Mate I don't think it's healthy your constant catastrophism. You would probably be best to take a break from PB. I know you and @Leon come here to get comforted and it fills a psychological need but better yet would be to take a break.
    It really isn't catastrophism. I am actually totally calm about everything.

    What I am saying is I think it is going that way, and actually that has betting implications. If Boris tries this while parliament isn't sitting, what are the back benchers going to do.
    Sure it's about the betting.

    By all means carry on as you are but you might benefit from a break from it.

    How many hours have you been on PB straight today? All the catastrophising posts.

    I would never criticise someone for being on PB why look at me now. But you should consider it.
    That is demonstrably bullshit. I posted all the medical research papers yesterday that showed loads of positive results, stating this is very encouraging.

    It also isn't catastrophising to say, well it looks like the government are going to do this. All the pressure is on them from the usual suspects, but this time Boris has his own party against.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited December 2021
    While noting the Delta peak isn't shown, this is some chart.


  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    edited December 2021

    *🐎 update

    Champ the wonder horse 😆

    Did I hear a Horse? :)
    Yes! But on this occasion a different wonder horse 😀

    4-1 Vanquished rival in closing strides. PB winning here!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Could we get Boris folding and lockdown after Boxing Day?

    I always thought that they would go for "enhanced restrictions" after New Years, but it seems like everything is moving even faster, the briefings, the leaks, the media, SAGE "speaking in a personal capacity" and iSAGE are all over the media, its all pushing for do something now.

    Mate I don't think it's healthy your constant catastrophism. You would probably be best to take a break from PB. I know you and @Leon come here to get comforted and it fills a psychological need but better yet would be to take a break.
    It really isn't catastrophism. I am actually totally calm about everything.

    What I am saying is I think it is going that way, and actually that has betting implications. If Boris tries this while parliament isn't sitting, what are the back benchers going to do.
    Sure it's about the betting.

    By all means carry on as you are but you might benefit from a break from it.

    How many hours have you been on PB straight today? All the catastrophising posts.

    I would never criticise someone for being on PB why look at me now. But you should consider it.
    That is demonstrably bullshit. I posted all the medical research papers yesterday that showed loads of positive results, stating this is encouraging.
    Good to hear. Enjoy the rest of your day.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    *🐎 update

    Champ the wonder horse 😆

    Did I hear a Horse? :)
    Yes! But on this occasion a different wonder horse 😀

    4-1 Vanquished rival in closing strides. PB winning here!
    You're having a good time on the old betting front. North Shropshire, now this!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    Exactly. Stretch target, and builds up a solid volume of jabs in a short time to build on the solid start the booster programme made.
    We need the resource and logistics in place to do a lot of boosters in a short period of time. We don't want the focus drifting from that to some magic number that has to be hit otherwise ... well otherwise what? Exactly. It's meaningless.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Netherlands en route to a lockdown till mid-January.

    Everything to close - including schools - except essentials.

    https://twitter.com/remkorteweg/status/1472220270714920969?s=20

    Let's hope this doesn't give today's Cabinet any ideas.
    Like I said, most of this is irrelevant if schools are open.

    They could take the other message, of course. If we're keeping schools open, why bother with anything else?

    The answer, unfortunately, will be the Jim Hacker one - they want to look as if they're doing something. Unfortunately with this lot they usually end up looking as if they're trying to look as if they're trying to do something.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Could we get Boris folding and lockdown after Boxing Day?

    I always thought that they would go for "enhanced restrictions" after New Years, but it seems like everything is moving even faster, the briefings, the leaks, the media, SAGE "speaking in a personal capacity" and iSAGE are all over the media, its all pushing for do something now.

    Mate I don't think it's healthy your constant catastrophism. You would probably be best to take a break from PB. I know you and @Leon come here to get comforted and it fills a psychological need but better yet would be to take a break.
    It really isn't catastrophism. I am actually totally calm about everything.

    What I am saying is I think it is going that way, and actually that has betting implications. If Boris tries this while parliament isn't sitting, what are the back benchers going to do.
    Sure it's about the betting.

    By all means carry on as you are but you might benefit from a break from it.

    How many hours have you been on PB straight today? All the catastrophising posts.

    I would never criticise someone for being on PB why look at me now. But you should consider it.
    That is demonstrably bullshit. I posted all the medical research papers yesterday that showed loads of positive results, stating this is very encouraging.

    It also isn't catastrophising to say, well it looks like the government are going to do this. All the pressure is on them from the usual suspects, but this time Boris has his own party against.
    When Topping experiences personal fear he sublimates it by projecting it onto others, and identifying these fears in them. It is a known psychological process.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection
  • *🐎 update

    Champ the wonder horse 😆

    Did I hear a Horse? :)
    Yes! But on this occasion a different wonder horse 😀

    4-1 Vanquished rival in closing strides. PB winning here!
    Nice!

    Another Correct Horse! :)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited December 2021
    FF43 said:

    Aslan said:

    IanB2 said:



    I think that if Labour offered the EU a customs union (thereby eliminating most of the Northern Ireland issues) and general sensible cooperation on issues of joint concern there would be a warm response from the EU, and only a smallish minority of British voters would be really upset.

    That’s been the obvious compromise and common sense approach since Mrs May took office, and her term would have gone very differently had she spent her honeymoon capital on telling her nutters some home truths and steering the country in that direction. Sooner or later we’ll get a government that recognises that Norway or Switzerland offer more realistic examples than Singapore.
    So Labour would make us a rule taker from the EU with no input. And open up the flood gates on immigration too?

    Feels like the centrepiece of a Tory campaign.
    kinabalu said:

    Aslan said:



    The polling on Brexit shows the most important things were (1) wanting laws to be made in the UK and (2) immigration. In that order. Starmer will lose any gains if he does either or looks like he is going to do either.

    But (2) is far more clearcut. Free Movement is totemic and not open to fudge. (1) is in the eye of the beholder to a great extent.
    I think Freedom of Movement is open to some negotiation. The UK and EU have partnership agreements where they commit to treat the others citizens passing through in a particular way. A future agreement could be more liberal on this than the current arrangement.
    Yes, I hope and think so - but I was talking about Labour and the next GE. They won't go near this topic imo.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,990
    edited December 2021

    I think the naiveness for many is that it would all be over this year, not least because the Government kept saying it would.

    No informed person said COVID would be "finished" with, it was that it would become endemic. They said we would be in a position to live with it. Which we were until Omicron. Yes there were plenty of cases, but the danger to the vast bulk of the vaccinated population was now down to basically the level of any other "danger" in life. 70% of cases were in the unvaccinated and the vast bulk of those dying were unvaccinated and incredibly old / vulnerable.

    What has caught even the most informed scientists by surprise is the shear level of mutations with Omicron, the likelihood of such a rapid combination of two separate lineages with even further rapid mutations was incredibly small.

    That's terribly unfortunate. However, it may also turn out to be a positive. Boostered against this, it looks like you again have very high levels of protection and it will be through the population in a few weeks. If it is also milder, we are going to get exposed and gain immunity.

    I have long come to terms with the underlying fact that COVID is here for the rest of my life, I will catch it, probably multiple times, I will be having regular vaccinations at least for the next few years.

    There is also the possibility we get a flair up like this again.

    I don't think the Zero COVID lot do anybody any favours, as they try to project this vision that you can eliminate COVID. You can't unless you want to restrict your whole life forever.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Could we get Boris folding and lockdown after Boxing Day?

    I always thought that they would go for "enhanced restrictions" after New Years, but it seems like everything is moving even faster, the briefings, the leaks, the media, SAGE "speaking in a personal capacity" and iSAGE are all over the media, its all pushing for do something now.

    Mate I don't think it's healthy your constant catastrophism. You would probably be best to take a break from PB. I know you and @Leon come here to get comforted and it fills a psychological need but better yet would be to take a break.
    It really isn't catastrophism. I am actually totally calm about everything.

    What I am saying is I think it is going that way, and actually that has betting implications. If Boris tries this while parliament isn't sitting, what are the back benchers going to do.
    Sure it's about the betting.

    By all means carry on as you are but you might benefit from a break from it.

    How many hours have you been on PB straight today? All the catastrophising posts.

    I would never criticise someone for being on PB why look at me now. But you should consider it.
    That is demonstrably bullshit. I posted all the medical research papers yesterday that showed loads of positive results, stating this is very encouraging.

    It also isn't catastrophising to say, well it looks like the government are going to do this. All the pressure is on them from the usual suspects, but this time Boris has his own party against.
    When Topping experiences personal fear he sublimates it by projecting it onto others, and identifying these fears in them. It is a known psychological process.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection
    Thanks Doc.

    Edit: physician heal thyself.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    ydoethur said:

    Netherlands en route to a lockdown till mid-January.

    Everything to close - including schools - except essentials.

    https://twitter.com/remkorteweg/status/1472220270714920969?s=20

    Let's hope this doesn't give today's Cabinet any ideas.
    Like I said, most of this is irrelevant if schools are open.

    They could take the other message, of course. If we're keeping schools open, why bother with anything else?

    The answer, unfortunately, will be the Jim Hacker one - they want to look as if they're doing something. Unfortunately with this lot they usually end up looking as if they're trying to look as if they're trying to do something.
    Where do you stand on remote lesrning? Is there more to come in making it smarter, and fairer across education as a whole, so there’s less of a drop off it it comes to closures? In first lock down, for some children it was via parents mobile phone. My concern is it just shows ’apartheid of the pocket’ across education system.

    Do you see my point? Has last two years highlighted lessons learned and actions to be taken in terms of who has Laptops to aid education and who doesn’t?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Could we get Boris folding and lockdown after Boxing Day?

    I always thought that they would go for "enhanced restrictions" after New Years, but it seems like everything is moving even faster, the briefings, the leaks, the media, SAGE "speaking in a personal capacity" and iSAGE are all over the media, its all pushing for do something now.

    Mate I don't think it's healthy your constant catastrophism. You would probably be best to take a break from PB. I know you and @Leon come here to get comforted and it fills a psychological need but better yet would be to take a break.
    It really isn't catastrophism. I am actually totally calm about everything.

    What I am saying is I think it is going that way, and actually that has betting implications. If Boris tries this while parliament isn't sitting, what are the back benchers going to do.
    Sure it's about the betting.

    By all means carry on as you are but you might benefit from a break from it.

    How many hours have you been on PB straight today? All the catastrophising posts.

    I would never criticise someone for being on PB why look at me now. But you should consider it.
    That is demonstrably bullshit. I posted all the medical research papers yesterday that showed loads of positive results, stating this is very encouraging.

    It also isn't catastrophising to say, well it looks like the government are going to do this. All the pressure is on them from the usual suspects, but this time Boris has his own party against.
    When Topping experiences personal fear he sublimates it by projecting it onto others, and identifying these fears in them. It is a known psychological process.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection
    Thanks Doc.
    You're smart enough to know that I am right
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Aslan said:

    The polling on Brexit shows the most important things were (1) wanting laws to be made in the UK and (2) immigration. In that order. Starmer will lose any gains if he does either or looks like he is going to do either.

    But Priti Vacant has completely "naused up" the latter

    There will be Lib Dem style bar charts come the next election, showing illegal immigration pre-Brexit, and post-Brexit.

    Naused it right up...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.

    If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
    The purpose of a target is to focus minds and resource on hitting it. If it's not realistic it's not really a target.
    It's more like a stretch goal, the MVP is to get to over 95% of over 40s done by Wednesday. I think we will get there too.
    Way I see it is we need to do as many as we can as quick as we can. Put the resource in, get the systems and logistics in place, go for it. There's no magic number and setting one makes no difference. It's a distraction or even counterproductive to set a target that's "aspirational" as opposed to flowing from what you've set up.
    Having the target gets everyone pulling in the same direction, we had the CMO advice to dump the 15 minute observation period, we had the DoH instructing the NHS to dump the JCVI order and let everyone queue up, we've had multiple interventions from political, scientific and NHS sources urging people to get boosters, we've had Chris Whitty make a public service announcement that's playing on TV and YouTube. All of these things are happening to try and hit the big target.

    Plodding along at 450k average per day was enough for the NHS for weeks after the JCVI advice changed, who's to say we wouldn't still be plodding along without Boris making the decisions for them to speed up. My cousin was describing how disorganised they were with the booster rollout at the start, relying on letters, dumping the booking system, only wanting to do groups 1-4 before sending letters out to groups 5-9, letting GPs handle it despite knowing that millions of people in the UK aren't registered with any GP. The Saj had to force them to bring back the externally run booking and provisioning system (the website), he had to force them to bring back texts and get them to dump the appointment letters, they had to be forced to call all groups 1-9 together rather than do orders and to allow appointments to be booked before eligibility was reached.

    I think you have really underestimated how much inertia and complacency there was in the NHS over boosters. The big target has finally shaken that off, not just in the NHS but in the wider government. The booster programme was being treated as just another flu jab by all branches of the state but we know COVID has got huge downside risk potential. The target is, IMO, too late but is at least ambitious enough to make a difference.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494

    *🐎 update

    Champ the wonder horse 😆

    Did I hear a Horse? :)
    Yes! But on this occasion a different wonder horse 😀

    4-1 Vanquished rival in closing strides. PB winning here!
    Nice!

    Another Correct Horse! :)
    Samarrive up soon. Both Malc and I tip this one.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Meanwhile in the Cabinet Office...

    We have launched an inquiry to establish whether a party took place. https://twitter.com/GillianCarring6/status/1471892555172298757/photo/1
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.

    If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
    It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
    Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.

    Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.

    Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.

    You partisanship some times is way OTT.
    Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
    In this specific instance it isn't reasonable to expect a government to overturn the decision of an independent medical advisory committee. No sensible politician would, otherwise you get into Trump territory of advising bleach and giving anti-vaxxer massive amounts of ammunition.

    I have spent the past 2 years consistently pointing out the dumb shit the government have done time and time again. Go and check my 60k posts, there are absolutely loads of posts saying, FFS Boris has bottled a lockdown, he is leaving it too late. I was also massively critical of the idea of the tier system. I said we should have had border restrictions straight away during March 2020....I advocated for the sort of scheme Australia have employed....I said the government needed to kick SAGE up the arse in the summer and have them actually making a plan, when in fact they didn't meet for 2 months...

    I could go on and on and on.
    Agreed. The truth is, we don't know how bad Omicron will be. With vaccines the landing point for hospitalisations and serious illness is likely to be between somewhat better than Delta without vaccines and somewhat worse. That's what serious and informed people investigating this are coming up with, not all of whom can be dismissed because they don't accord with our prejudices.

    If we collectively think we are not prepared to do another lockdown and will take whatever Omicron throws at us, that's a valid decision to make. But let's not say, we're not doing another lockdown, and then do it anyway as the hospital system buckles under the strain.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    MrEd said:

    Aslan said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.

    Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.

    Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
    Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
    More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."

    And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Mayor of London Sadiq Khan declares major incident in the capital over 'huge surge' of #Omicron cases
    https://twitter.com/ZoraSuleman/status/1472225008701349898
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    FF43 said:

    Aslan said:

    IanB2 said:



    I think that if Labour offered the EU a customs union (thereby eliminating most of the Northern Ireland issues) and general sensible cooperation on issues of joint concern there would be a warm response from the EU, and only a smallish minority of British voters would be really upset.

    That’s been the obvious compromise and common sense approach since Mrs May took office, and her term would have gone very differently had she spent her honeymoon capital on telling her nutters some home truths and steering the country in that direction. Sooner or later we’ll get a government that recognises that Norway or Switzerland offer more realistic examples than Singapore.
    So Labour would make us a rule taker from the EU with no input. And open up the flood gates on immigration too?

    Feels like the centrepiece of a Tory campaign.
    Brexit itself effectively makes the UK a rule taker without input. It's taking a long time for people to absorb that fact. Why do you think Johnson is calling off Article 16, giving the French all those fishing licences and accepting CE quality marks and EU REACH classifications? It's not out of any feeling of generosity to the more powerful player. It's because divergence or non-implementation comes with a cost that isn't worth paying. Eventually people will realise that and decide to formalise the adherence in exchange for commitments from the other side. Which is where preferential terms on customs etc come in.
    kinabalu said:

    Aslan said:



    The polling on Brexit shows the most important things were (1) wanting laws to be made in the UK and (2) immigration. In that order. Starmer will lose any gains if he does either or looks like he is going to do either.

    But (2) is far more clearcut. Free Movement is totemic and not open to fudge. (1) is in the eye of the beholder to a great extent.
    I think Freedom of Movement is open to some negotiation. The UK and EU have partnership agreements where they commit to treat the others citizens passing through in a particular way. A future agreement could be more liberal on this than the current arrangement.
    Yes, we are all aware of the Remainer arguments and we had a referendum campaign about it. The line that alignment is more important than democratic control was one considered and tossed out. If Remainers like Starmer, who tried to overturn a democratic referendum, try to do the same thing again by the back door, the public will swing back to the Tories.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,990
    edited December 2021
    FF43 said:

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.

    If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
    It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
    Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.

    Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.

    Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.

    You partisanship some times is way OTT.
    Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
    In this specific instance it isn't reasonable to expect a government to overturn the decision of an independent medical advisory committee. No sensible politician would, otherwise you get into Trump territory of advising bleach and giving anti-vaxxer massive amounts of ammunition.

    I have spent the past 2 years consistently pointing out the dumb shit the government have done time and time again. Go and check my 60k posts, there are absolutely loads of posts saying, FFS Boris has bottled a lockdown, he is leaving it too late. I was also massively critical of the idea of the tier system. I said we should have had border restrictions straight away during March 2020....I advocated for the sort of scheme Australia have employed....I said the government needed to kick SAGE up the arse in the summer and have them actually making a plan, when in fact they didn't meet for 2 months...

    I could go on and on and on.
    Agreed. The truth is, we don't know how bad Omicron will be. With vaccines the landing point for hospitalisations and serious illness is likely to be between somewhat better than Delta without vaccines and somewhat worse. That's what serious and informed people investigating this are coming up with, not all of whom can be dismissed because they don't accord with our prejudices.

    If we collectively think we are not prepared to do another lockdown and will take whatever Omicron throws at us, that's a valid decision to make. But let's not say, we're not doing another lockdown, and then do it anyway as the hospital system buckles under the strain.
    The way I have coped with COVID, is always to be prepare for the worst, hope for the better. And actually in many respects things have gone better / humans have got lucky. We shouldn't forget this. No vaccines at all now with Omicron, it would be unstoppable.

    The likes of the mRNA technology is absolutely amazing, in the next few months they will have an even better vaccine and it is now predicted in the not too distant future they will be able to tweak this further for much longer lasting immunity against a wide range of mutations.

    We also have the likes of the Pfizer anti-viral coming onstream that appear to be highly effective for the most vulnerable.

    But I am also long since come to terms with we are all getting this at some point. So you do what you can to put yourself in best shape i.e. get vaccinated, don't be over weight, stay fit....

    Its no different to the huge proportion of us who will get cancer at some point.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Scott_xP said:

    Meanwhile in the Cabinet Office...

    We have launched an inquiry to establish whether a party took place. https://twitter.com/GillianCarring6/status/1471892555172298757/photo/1

    Will they be serving cheese and wine to make sure the inquiry complies with current restrictions?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    ydoethur said:

    *🐎 update

    Champ the wonder horse 😆

    Did I hear a Horse? :)
    Yes! But on this occasion a different wonder horse 😀

    4-1 Vanquished rival in closing strides. PB winning here!
    You're having a good time on the old betting front. North Shropshire, now this!
    That’s enough now you are making me blush.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    So all of this over a possible 3k hospitalisations per day under the same model that got the 7k per day wrong last time out?

    The hundred Tory politicians need to hold firm and tell Boris and to get fucked. No more lockdowns, no more restrictions, no more tyranny of unelected experts.

    Unelected experts > Elected morons. You're seriously more happy with the our fate in the hands of the geniuses who make plugging Peppa Pig part of government policy?
    Any day of the week, I can vote out the Peppa pig crew if I disagree with them. I have no way of voting out the expert class. Your faith in them is disturbing, it's sad that so many British people are so comfortable with living in a technocratic country where they have zero influence on the big decisions of the day.
    Whilst I appreciate the sentiment, there is a basic issue of competence. Doctors, scientists, medics are capable of diagnosing if that lump on your bollock is cancerous or not. A gob on legs Tory MP ideologically focused on getting you and your cancerous testes back to work is not.

    So whilst you want want to listen to the person saying "its fine, back to work" the problem is that they don't have the first fucking clue what they are saying. Which is why the couple of MPs who have said "we've had enough of these unelected Doctors, listen to us elected people and our Prime Minister" are being so roundly laughed at.
    I appreciate this sentiment, but you are assuming that true expertise can be acquired in all disciplines. There are disciplines, such as law, aviation, and medicine, where the processes involved are either linear, or (if the processes are complex and adaptive) there are enough instances of them and hence enough data that we can indeed accumulate expertise. Fire fighters and naval aviators are good examples of such experts in complex adaptive systems.

    But then there are Black Swans, like a once in a century pandemic, that are both complex adaptive systems and are rare enough that no-one has the data sets from which to acquire expertise. COVID's impact on society at large is one such example.

    No-one, not even the best scientists who have genuine expertise in their defined disciplines, is expert on what approach is best for COVID at a societal level. Everyone is stabbing in the dark.

    So spare me this have faith in the 'experts'. No-one is expert - some are just better at faking it.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Scott_xP said:

    Aslan said:

    The polling on Brexit shows the most important things were (1) wanting laws to be made in the UK and (2) immigration. In that order. Starmer will lose any gains if he does either or looks like he is going to do either.

    But Priti Vacant has completely "naused up" the latter

    There will be Lib Dem style bar charts come the next election, showing illegal immigration pre-Brexit, and post-Brexit.

    Naused it right up...
    Sorry, I got to the third word and then stopped reading.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.

    If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
    It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
    Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.

    Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.

    Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.

    You partisanship some times is way OTT.
    Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
    In this specific instance it isn't reasonable to expect a government to overturn the decision of an independent medical advisory committee. No sensible politician would, otherwise you get into Trump territory of advising bleach and giving anti-vaxxer massive amounts of ammunition.

    I have spent the past 2 years consistently pointing out the dumb shit the government have done time and time again. Go and check my 60k posts, there are absolutely loads of posts saying, FFS Boris has bottled a lockdown, he is leaving it too late. I was also massively critical of the idea of the tier system. I said we should have had border restrictions straight away during March 2020....I advocated for the sort of scheme Australia have employed....I said the government needed to kick SAGE up the arse in the summer and have them actually making a plan, when in fact they didn't meet for 2 months...

    I could go on and on and on.
    Agreed. The truth is, we don't know how bad Omicron will be. With vaccines the landing point for hospitalisations and serious illness is likely to be between somewhat better than Delta without vaccines and somewhat worse. That's what serious and informed people investigating this are coming up with, not all of whom can be dismissed because they don't accord with our prejudices.

    If we collectively think we are not prepared to do another lockdown and will take whatever Omicron throws at us, that's a valid decision to make. But let's not say, we're not doing another lockdown, and then do it anyway as the hospital system buckles under the strain.
    But the totally INFURIATING thing is that UKG has made virtually no attempt to punish, tax or chide the antivaxxers into getting the jab. They are the reason we are back in the shit. Look at @foxy's post today - every Covid victim in his ICU is unvaxxed

    WHY is the government so totally spineless on this issue? Fear of being seen as racist? Fear of the "libertarian lobby"?

    Before they make my life miserable, and condemn my kids to more damaged mental health, perhaps the fucking government could tackle the people who are causing all this shit, rather than jailing absolutely everyone
    I like the idea of a COVID NHS tax at 1% per year to help the NHS pay for COVID care which is refunded to people when they reach fully vaccinated status. That would get loads of people in the door as getting the vaccine is being linked to helping the NHS, lots of people still haven't made that connection.
  • Netherlands to announce nationwide lockdown to slow the spread of Omicron - NOS
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    Aslan said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.

    Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.

    Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
    Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
    More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."

    And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
    You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"

    Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,990
    edited December 2021
    Sadiq Khan said on his piece to camera about the outbreak of COVID in London, said the "vast vast majority are unvaccinated".

    I don't believe this is true now. Proportionally it is true, but not on raw numbers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    And so the dominoes fall. Canada next....


    "Omicron fears force Canadian businesses to prepare for the worst — another lockdown | http://Globalnews.ca"

    https://twitter.com/ManitobaCovid/status/1472230050791452672?s=20
  • Aslan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Aslan said:

    The polling on Brexit shows the most important things were (1) wanting laws to be made in the UK and (2) immigration. In that order. Starmer will lose any gains if he does either or looks like he is going to do either.

    But Priti Vacant has completely "naused up" the latter

    There will be Lib Dem style bar charts come the next election, showing illegal immigration pre-Brexit, and post-Brexit.

    Naused it right up...
    Sorry, I got to the third word and then stopped reading.
    Good choice.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    Aslan said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.

    Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.

    Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
    Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
    More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."

    And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
    You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"

    Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
    This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Aslan said:

    Sorry, I got to the third word and then stopped reading.

    Don't be sorry.

    You'll learn the big words eventually.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    Aslan said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.

    Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.

    Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
    Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
    More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."

    And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
    We are not what? Having another lockdown? Because we are having a lockdown, officially or unofficially. The streets are dead and no one is going out.

    In any event, you are missing the bigger point. We were promised that there would be an end to the endless round of restrictions, and one of the main arguments was that “the virus will get weaker”. We are now nearly two years in and, as has been posted, the Netherlands for example are going on a full lockdown and British travellers are effectively banned from visiting France.

  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.

    If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
    It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
    Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.

    Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.

    Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.

    You partisanship some times is way OTT.
    Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
    In this specific instance it isn't reasonable to expect a government to overturn the decision of an independent medical advisory committee. No sensible politician would, otherwise you get into Trump territory of advising bleach and giving anti-vaxxer massive amounts of ammunition.

    I have spent the past 2 years consistently pointing out the dumb shit the government have done time and time again. Go and check my 60k posts, there are absolutely loads of posts saying, FFS Boris has bottled a lockdown, he is leaving it too late. I was also massively critical of the idea of the tier system. I said we should have had border restrictions straight away during March 2020....I advocated for the sort of scheme Australia have employed....I said the government needed to kick SAGE up the arse in the summer and have them actually making a plan, when in fact they didn't meet for 2 months...

    I could go on and on and on.
    Agreed. The truth is, we don't know how bad Omicron will be. With vaccines the landing point for hospitalisations and serious illness is likely to be between somewhat better than Delta without vaccines and somewhat worse. That's what serious and informed people investigating this are coming up with, not all of whom can be dismissed because they don't accord with our prejudices.

    If we collectively think we are not prepared to do another lockdown and will take whatever Omicron throws at us, that's a valid decision to make. But let's not say, we're not doing another lockdown, and then do it anyway as the hospital system buckles under the strain.
    But the totally INFURIATING thing is that UKG has made virtually no attempt to punish, tax or chide the antivaxxers into getting the jab. They are the reason we are back in the shit. Look at @foxy's post today - every Covid victim in his ICU is unvaxxed

    WHY is the government so totally spineless on this issue? Fear of being seen as racist? Fear of the "libertarian lobby"?

    Before they make my life miserable, and condemn my kids to more damaged mental health, perhaps the fucking government could tackle the people who are causing all this shit, rather than jailing absolutely everyone
    This is the smartest thing you've said on COVID recently. Governments sooner or later are going to have to be a lot tougher on the anti-vaxxers. One obvious thing to do is to deprioritize anti-vaxxers for NHS treatment.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.

    If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
    It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
    Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.

    Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.

    Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.

    You partisanship some times is way OTT.
    Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
    In this specific instance it isn't reasonable to expect a government to overturn the decision of an independent medical advisory committee. No sensible politician would, otherwise you get into Trump territory of advising bleach and giving anti-vaxxer massive amounts of ammunition.

    I have spent the past 2 years consistently pointing out the dumb shit the government have done time and time again. Go and check my 60k posts, there are absolutely loads of posts saying, FFS Boris has bottled a lockdown, he is leaving it too late. I was also massively critical of the idea of the tier system. I said we should have had border restrictions straight away during March 2020....I advocated for the sort of scheme Australia have employed....I said the government needed to kick SAGE up the arse in the summer and have them actually making a plan, when in fact they didn't meet for 2 months...

    I could go on and on and on.
    Agreed. The truth is, we don't know how bad Omicron will be. With vaccines the landing point for hospitalisations and serious illness is likely to be between somewhat better than Delta without vaccines and somewhat worse. That's what serious and informed people investigating this are coming up with, not all of whom can be dismissed because they don't accord with our prejudices.

    If we collectively think we are not prepared to do another lockdown and will take whatever Omicron throws at us, that's a valid decision to make. But let's not say, we're not doing another lockdown, and then do it anyway as the hospital system buckles under the strain.
    But the totally INFURIATING thing is that UKG has made virtually no attempt to punish, tax or chide the antivaxxers into getting the jab. They are the reason we are back in the shit. Look at @foxy's post today - every Covid victim in his ICU is unvaxxed

    WHY is the government so totally spineless on this issue? Fear of being seen as racist? Fear of the "libertarian lobby"?

    Before they make my life miserable, and condemn my kids to more damaged mental health, perhaps the fucking government could tackle the people who are causing all this shit, rather than jailing absolutely everyone
    I like the idea of a COVID NHS tax at 1% per year to help the NHS pay for COVID care which is refunded to people when they reach fully vaccinated status. That would get loads of people in the door as getting the vaccine is being linked to helping the NHS, lots of people still haven't made that connection.
    I suspect quite a few of the unvaxxed aren't paying tax... including children of course.

    The real answer is make it hard to go places / do things. Restrict the unvaccinated* as you would smokers, with a few exceptions (hospitals, schools, can't think on many others tbh).

    It's going to happen eventually anyway, so why delay?

    (*With an exemption cert for thos that can't be vaccinated of course.)
  • MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    Aslan said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.

    Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.

    Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
    Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
    More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."

    And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
    You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"

    Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
    This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
    The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited December 2021
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.

    If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
    The purpose of a target is to focus minds and resource on hitting it. If it's not realistic it's not really a target.
    It's more like a stretch goal, the MVP is to get to over 95% of over 40s done by Wednesday. I think we will get there too.
    Way I see it is we need to do as many as we can as quick as we can. Put the resource in, get the systems and logistics in place, go for it. There's no magic number and setting one makes no difference. It's a distraction or even counterproductive to set a target that's "aspirational" as opposed to flowing from what you've set up.
    Having the target gets everyone pulling in the same direction, we had the CMO advice to dump the 15 minute observation period, we had the DoH instructing the NHS to dump the JCVI order and let everyone queue up, we've had multiple interventions from political, scientific and NHS sources urging people to get boosters, we've had Chris Whitty make a public service announcement that's playing on TV and YouTube. All of these things are happening to try and hit the big target.

    Plodding along at 450k average per day was enough for the NHS for weeks after the JCVI advice changed, who's to say we wouldn't still be plodding along without Boris making the decisions for them to speed up. My cousin was describing how disorganised they were with the booster rollout at the start, relying on letters, dumping the booking system, only wanting to do groups 1-4 before sending letters out to groups 5-9, letting GPs handle it despite knowing that millions of people in the UK aren't registered with any GP. The Saj had to force them to bring back the externally run booking and provisioning system (the website), he had to force them to bring back texts and get them to dump the appointment letters, they had to be forced to call all groups 1-9 together rather than do orders and to allow appointments to be booked before eligibility was reached.

    I think you have really underestimated how much inertia and complacency there was in the NHS over boosters. The big target has finally shaken that off, not just in the NHS but in the wider government. The booster programme was being treated as just another flu jab by all branches of the state but we know COVID has got huge downside risk potential. The target is, IMO, too late but is at least ambitious enough to make a difference.
    Well the booster has become urgent with Omicron, hasn't it. And yes I can imagine the NHS needed to be told just how urgent it now is and to really focus on it. I don't disagree with what you're saying at all apart from the weight you place on setting a target. It's the specific changes made and steps taken - some of which you refer to - that makes the difference. That's what's important not some number that Johnson announces.

    If we make this change and that change and put this resource in, how many can we do?
    1m.
    Right, let's go.

    This is the healthy dynamic you want imo.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    Aslan said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.

    Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.

    Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
    Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
    More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."

    And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
    You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"

    Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
    This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
    But it won't just be the unvaccinated. If the NHS is overwhelmed, cancer treatments are delayed, A&E incidents take days to get to, more people die.
  • TimT said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    So all of this over a possible 3k hospitalisations per day under the same model that got the 7k per day wrong last time out?

    The hundred Tory politicians need to hold firm and tell Boris and to get fucked. No more lockdowns, no more restrictions, no more tyranny of unelected experts.

    Unelected experts > Elected morons. You're seriously more happy with the our fate in the hands of the geniuses who make plugging Peppa Pig part of government policy?
    Any day of the week, I can vote out the Peppa pig crew if I disagree with them. I have no way of voting out the expert class. Your faith in them is disturbing, it's sad that so many British people are so comfortable with living in a technocratic country where they have zero influence on the big decisions of the day.
    Whilst I appreciate the sentiment, there is a basic issue of competence. Doctors, scientists, medics are capable of diagnosing if that lump on your bollock is cancerous or not. A gob on legs Tory MP ideologically focused on getting you and your cancerous testes back to work is not.

    So whilst you want want to listen to the person saying "its fine, back to work" the problem is that they don't have the first fucking clue what they are saying. Which is why the couple of MPs who have said "we've had enough of these unelected Doctors, listen to us elected people and our Prime Minister" are being so roundly laughed at.
    I appreciate this sentiment, but you are assuming that true expertise can be acquired in all disciplines. There are disciplines, such as law, aviation, and medicine, where the processes involved are either linear, or (if the processes are complex and adaptive) there are enough instances of them and hence enough data that we can indeed accumulate expertise. Fire fighters and naval aviators are good examples of such experts in complex adaptive systems.

    But then there are Black Swans, like a once in a century pandemic, that are both complex adaptive systems and are rare enough that no-one has the data sets from which to acquire expertise. COVID's impact on society at large is one such example.

    No-one, not even the best scientists who have genuine expertise in their defined disciplines, is expert on what approach is best for COVID at a societal level. Everyone is stabbing in the dark.

    So spare me this have faith in the 'experts'. No-one is expert - some are just better at faking it.
    Sure. But we're being offered a choice between the experts who may have bits of it wrong or MPs with no training who may be lucky to guess a fraction of it right.

    So I back the experts. Their wrong is worth more than a gobshite ideologue MP's right.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    *🐎 update

    Champ the wonder horse 😆

    Did I hear a Horse? :)
    Yes! But on this occasion a different wonder horse 😀

    4-1 Vanquished rival in closing strides. PB winning here!
    Nice!

    Another Correct Horse! :)
    I need to place greater attention on these horse tips!

    Ps hello @CorrectHorseBattery hope all good
  • MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    Aslan said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.

    Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.

    Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
    Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
    More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."

    And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
    You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"

    Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
    This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
    The worst thing about the incoming 2 week lockdown will be the ninth week.
    That would be a very funny comment, if it wasn't true...
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376
    Scott_xP said:

    Aslan said:

    Sorry, I got to the third word and then stopped reading.

    Don't be sorry.

    You'll learn the big words eventually.
    Keep copying other people words, mate. You’re no one to sneer at others. One day you may have an original thought.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited December 2021

    TimT said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    So all of this over a possible 3k hospitalisations per day under the same model that got the 7k per day wrong last time out?

    The hundred Tory politicians need to hold firm and tell Boris and to get fucked. No more lockdowns, no more restrictions, no more tyranny of unelected experts.

    Unelected experts > Elected morons. You're seriously more happy with the our fate in the hands of the geniuses who make plugging Peppa Pig part of government policy?
    Any day of the week, I can vote out the Peppa pig crew if I disagree with them. I have no way of voting out the expert class. Your faith in them is disturbing, it's sad that so many British people are so comfortable with living in a technocratic country where they have zero influence on the big decisions of the day.
    Whilst I appreciate the sentiment, there is a basic issue of competence. Doctors, scientists, medics are capable of diagnosing if that lump on your bollock is cancerous or not. A gob on legs Tory MP ideologically focused on getting you and your cancerous testes back to work is not.

    So whilst you want want to listen to the person saying "its fine, back to work" the problem is that they don't have the first fucking clue what they are saying. Which is why the couple of MPs who have said "we've had enough of these unelected Doctors, listen to us elected people and our Prime Minister" are being so roundly laughed at.
    I appreciate this sentiment, but you are assuming that true expertise can be acquired in all disciplines. There are disciplines, such as law, aviation, and medicine, where the processes involved are either linear, or (if the processes are complex and adaptive) there are enough instances of them and hence enough data that we can indeed accumulate expertise. Fire fighters and naval aviators are good examples of such experts in complex adaptive systems.

    But then there are Black Swans, like a once in a century pandemic, that are both complex adaptive systems and are rare enough that no-one has the data sets from which to acquire expertise. COVID's impact on society at large is one such example.

    No-one, not even the best scientists who have genuine expertise in their defined disciplines, is expert on what approach is best for COVID at a societal level. Everyone is stabbing in the dark.

    So spare me this have faith in the 'experts'. No-one is expert - some are just better at faking it.
    Sure. But we're being offered a choice between the experts who may have bits of it wrong or MPs with no training who may be lucky to guess a fraction of it right.

    So I back the experts. Their wrong is worth more than a gobshite ideologue MP's right.
    Great. You are backing the people with a map of Hamburg to guide you around the City of London. Have at it. But don't insist I do the same.

    I'd rather walk with someone who admits they have no map
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    Aslan said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.

    Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.

    Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
    Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
    More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."

    And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
    You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"

    Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
    This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
    The Dutch have now got a near four week hard lockdown. In the depths of a north European winter. It will likely be extended. They are torturing their own people, to protect the stupid and selfish, and we are entering the third year of this shite


    Like many readers of history, I've always wondered how and why advanced, educated countries tolerated the absurd, surreal horrors of the First World War. By the end of 1914 it was clear no one was going to "win easily", and that millions of young men would die in futile squalor

    Yet families kept on sending their sons, month after month, year after year, to be fed into the Flanders meat grinder (and on other fronts too) and the people at home tolerated this insanity. Indeed, life went on as "normal"

    - until it didn't, in places like Russia

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.

    If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
    It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
    Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.

    Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.

    Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.

    You partisanship some times is way OTT.
    Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
    In this specific instance it isn't reasonable to expect a government to overturn the decision of an independent medical advisory committee. No sensible politician would, otherwise you get into Trump territory of advising bleach and giving anti-vaxxer massive amounts of ammunition.

    I have spent the past 2 years consistently pointing out the dumb shit the government have done time and time again. Go and check my 60k posts, there are absolutely loads of posts saying, FFS Boris has bottled a lockdown, he is leaving it too late. I was also massively critical of the idea of the tier system. I said we should have had border restrictions straight away during March 2020....I advocated for the sort of scheme Australia have employed....I said the government needed to kick SAGE up the arse in the summer and have them actually making a plan, when in fact they didn't meet for 2 months...

    I could go on and on and on.
    Agreed. The truth is, we don't know how bad Omicron will be. With vaccines the landing point for hospitalisations and serious illness is likely to be between somewhat better than Delta without vaccines and somewhat worse. That's what serious and informed people investigating this are coming up with, not all of whom can be dismissed because they don't accord with our prejudices.

    If we collectively think we are not prepared to do another lockdown and will take whatever Omicron throws at us, that's a valid decision to make. But let's not say, we're not doing another lockdown, and then do it anyway as the hospital system buckles under the strain.
    But the totally INFURIATING thing is that UKG has made virtually no attempt to punish, tax or chide the antivaxxers into getting the jab. They are the reason we are back in the shit. Look at @foxy's post today - every Covid victim in his ICU is unvaxxed

    WHY is the government so totally spineless on this issue? Fear of being seen as racist? Fear of the "libertarian lobby"?

    Before they make my life miserable, and condemn my kids to more damaged mental health, perhaps the fucking government could tackle the people who are causing all this shit, rather than jailing absolutely everyone
    This is the smartest thing you've said on COVID recently. Governments sooner or later are going to have to be a lot tougher on the anti-vaxxers. One obvious thing to do is to deprioritize anti-vaxxers for NHS treatment.
    I agree, but not your last sentence. That would be a slippery slope imo. (Next exclude, addicts, then those who caused their own injuries,... Where do you stop?)
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:


    Good Law Project
    @GoodLawProject
    NEW: Met Police refusing to investigate No 10 gatherings likely to be unlawful

    https://twitter.com/GoodLawProject/status/1471859932215615497

    ==

    I hope he gets his fox this time.

    At the bottom of the article is a request for cash,

    Dig deep people.
    Do you know what price the Met have demanded to investigate? Might help with the fundraising.

    Oh sorry, is that not what it's for?
    The contrast between photos of that young lass being pinned to the floor by a load of burly police officers for daring to break lockdown to attend the Sarah Everard vigil and a collective shrug of 'nothing to see here, gov' with respect to Downing Street must be doing a ton of damage to the Met's public reputation.

    Not really. I mean, their reputation was of being a bunch of lying, corrupt, gutless, incompetent, lazy, rude, stupid jobsworth c***s.

    What's happened has merely confirmed what we already knew.
    Although, in the case of the Sarah Everard protestor, most people clocked on fairly early that she seemed like a professional agitator. Which she was.
  • Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.

    If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
    It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
    Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.

    Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.

    Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.

    You partisanship some times is way OTT.
    Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
    In this specific instance it isn't reasonable to expect a government to overturn the decision of an independent medical advisory committee. No sensible politician would, otherwise you get into Trump territory of advising bleach and giving anti-vaxxer massive amounts of ammunition.

    I have spent the past 2 years consistently pointing out the dumb shit the government have done time and time again. Go and check my 60k posts, there are absolutely loads of posts saying, FFS Boris has bottled a lockdown, he is leaving it too late. I was also massively critical of the idea of the tier system. I said we should have had border restrictions straight away during March 2020....I advocated for the sort of scheme Australia have employed....I said the government needed to kick SAGE up the arse in the summer and have them actually making a plan, when in fact they didn't meet for 2 months...

    I could go on and on and on.
    Agreed. The truth is, we don't know how bad Omicron will be. With vaccines the landing point for hospitalisations and serious illness is likely to be between somewhat better than Delta without vaccines and somewhat worse. That's what serious and informed people investigating this are coming up with, not all of whom can be dismissed because they don't accord with our prejudices.

    If we collectively think we are not prepared to do another lockdown and will take whatever Omicron throws at us, that's a valid decision to make. But let's not say, we're not doing another lockdown, and then do it anyway as the hospital system buckles under the strain.
    But the totally INFURIATING thing is that UKG has made virtually no attempt to punish, tax or chide the antivaxxers into getting the jab. They are the reason we are back in the shit. Look at @foxy's post today - every Covid victim in his ICU is unvaxxed

    WHY is the government so totally spineless on this issue? Fear of being seen as racist? Fear of the "libertarian lobby"?

    Before they make my life miserable, and condemn my kids to more damaged mental health, perhaps the fucking government could tackle the people who are causing all this shit, rather than jailing absolutely everyone
    In Singapore unvaxxed COVID patients now have to pay for their hospital care if they fall ill with COVID.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    Aslan said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    Understand people's Omicron concerns. But we were told vaccines would remove the need for lockdowns. If that's no longer the case, OK. But we need to have a serious debate. Because I just don't see how a cycle of perpetually locking, then unlocking, society is sustainable.

    Eventually COVID is going to become less lethal as variants develop that don't kill people as much but still spread quickly, meaning it gives immunity from the more lethal kinds. In addition vaccines will get better like they have for the flu. As we transition to that we will still have lockdowns but they will be fewer, shorter and further between.

    Eventually we will have none at all, but this process is going to take years. But part of the problem is that 21st Century Westerners are pampered in more luxury, entertainment and general pleasure seeking than anyone else in human history. They are too soft mentally to get through this.
    Didn’t we have this line of argument last year, the old “it will become less lethal so we can all get back to normal etc etc” yet here we are having another major lockdown and everyone talking about how Omicrom could be as lethal as previous variants. I’m sure next year - when we have another variant - this same old trope will be rolled out again to justify another lockdown.
    More accurate to say "yet here we are with everyone speculating we're going to have another major lockdown."

    And reading things wrong imo. Because we're not.
    You're either delusionally optimistic, or you have such a strict definition of lockdown it doesn't include "shutting all indoor hospitality, imposing the rule of 6, everyone work from home"

    Which is it? I would genuinely like to know, because from my perspective we are certainly going to get a Plan C, very soon, and it's beginning to look a lot like Lockdown
    This is why the Tory party was so against plan b, it sets us on the path to more and more restrictions. If the mindset is "this will make a difference" and it doesn't then you need the next thing that will "make a difference" and so on until, like the Netherlands, you've got to a full lockdown because the government doesn't have the stones to say it doesn't care if the unvaccinated by choice kick the bucket at home.
    The Dutch have now got a near four week hard lockdown. In the depths of a north European winter. It will likely be extended. They are torturing their own people, to protect the stupid and selfish, and we are entering the third year of this shite


    Like many readers of history, I've always wondered how and why advanced, educated countries tolerated the absurd, surreal horrors of the First World War. By the end of 1914 it was clear no one was going to "win easily", and that millions of young men would die in futile squalor

    Yet families kept on sending their sons, month after month, year after year, to be fed into the Flanders meat grinder (and on other fronts too) and the people at home tolerated this insanity. Indeed, life went on as "normal"

    - until it didn't, in places like Russia

    Because it was better than German domination.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.

    If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
    It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
    Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.

    Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.

    Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.

    You partisanship some times is way OTT.
    Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
    In this specific instance it isn't reasonable to expect a government to overturn the decision of an independent medical advisory committee. No sensible politician would, otherwise you get into Trump territory of advising bleach and giving anti-vaxxer massive amounts of ammunition.

    I have spent the past 2 years consistently pointing out the dumb shit the government have done time and time again. Go and check my 60k posts, there are absolutely loads of posts saying, FFS Boris has bottled a lockdown, he is leaving it too late. I was also massively critical of the idea of the tier system. I said we should have had border restrictions straight away during March 2020....I advocated for the sort of scheme Australia have employed....I said the government needed to kick SAGE up the arse in the summer and have them actually making a plan, when in fact they didn't meet for 2 months...

    I could go on and on and on.
    Agreed. The truth is, we don't know how bad Omicron will be. With vaccines the landing point for hospitalisations and serious illness is likely to be between somewhat better than Delta without vaccines and somewhat worse. That's what serious and informed people investigating this are coming up with, not all of whom can be dismissed because they don't accord with our prejudices.

    If we collectively think we are not prepared to do another lockdown and will take whatever Omicron throws at us, that's a valid decision to make. But let's not say, we're not doing another lockdown, and then do it anyway as the hospital system buckles under the strain.
    But the totally INFURIATING thing is that UKG has made virtually no attempt to punish, tax or chide the antivaxxers into getting the jab. They are the reason we are back in the shit. Look at @foxy's post today - every Covid victim in his ICU is unvaxxed

    WHY is the government so totally spineless on this issue? Fear of being seen as racist? Fear of the "libertarian lobby"?

    Before they make my life miserable, and condemn my kids to more damaged mental health, perhaps the fucking government could tackle the people who are causing all this shit, rather than jailing absolutely everyone
    This is the smartest thing you've said on COVID recently. Governments sooner or later are going to have to be a lot tougher on the anti-vaxxers. One obvious thing to do is to deprioritize anti-vaxxers for NHS treatment.
    I agree, but not your last sentence. That would be a slippery slope imo. (Next exclude, addicts, then those who caused their own injuries,... Where do you stop?)
    Yes. If you say anti-vaxxers should be penalised, why not fat people for example (I’ll exclude smokers - given the tax on cigarettes, it can be argued they already are being penalised).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.

    If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
    It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
    Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.

    Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.

    Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.

    You partisanship some times is way OTT.
    Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
    In this specific instance it isn't reasonable to expect a government to overturn the decision of an independent medical advisory committee. No sensible politician would, otherwise you get into Trump territory of advising bleach and giving anti-vaxxer massive amounts of ammunition.

    I have spent the past 2 years consistently pointing out the dumb shit the government have done time and time again. Go and check my 60k posts, there are absolutely loads of posts saying, FFS Boris has bottled a lockdown, he is leaving it too late. I was also massively critical of the idea of the tier system. I said we should have had border restrictions straight away during March 2020....I advocated for the sort of scheme Australia have employed....I said the government needed to kick SAGE up the arse in the summer and have them actually making a plan, when in fact they didn't meet for 2 months...

    I could go on and on and on.
    Agreed. The truth is, we don't know how bad Omicron will be. With vaccines the landing point for hospitalisations and serious illness is likely to be between somewhat better than Delta without vaccines and somewhat worse. That's what serious and informed people investigating this are coming up with, not all of whom can be dismissed because they don't accord with our prejudices.

    If we collectively think we are not prepared to do another lockdown and will take whatever Omicron throws at us, that's a valid decision to make. But let's not say, we're not doing another lockdown, and then do it anyway as the hospital system buckles under the strain.
    But the totally INFURIATING thing is that UKG has made virtually no attempt to punish, tax or chide the antivaxxers into getting the jab. They are the reason we are back in the shit. Look at @foxy's post today - every Covid victim in his ICU is unvaxxed

    WHY is the government so totally spineless on this issue? Fear of being seen as racist? Fear of the "libertarian lobby"?

    Before they make my life miserable, and condemn my kids to more damaged mental health, perhaps the fucking government could tackle the people who are causing all this shit, rather than jailing absolutely everyone
    I like the idea of a COVID NHS tax at 1% per year to help the NHS pay for COVID care which is refunded to people when they reach fully vaccinated status. That would get loads of people in the door as getting the vaccine is being linked to helping the NHS, lots of people still haven't made that connection.
    I suspect quite a few of the unvaxxed aren't paying tax... including children of course.

    The real answer is make it hard to go places / do things. Restrict the unvaccinated* as you would smokers, with a few exceptions (hospitals, schools, can't think on many others tbh).

    It's going to happen eventually anyway, so why delay?

    (*With an exemption cert for thos that can't be vaccinated of course.)
    Because it won't help. The most likely unvaccinated person who might end up in hospital is going to be a 60-70 year old South Asian Muslim who doesn't drink, doesn't smoke and doesn't go to the pub, theatre, non-Halal restaurants, shops at the local Asian shop run by one of his mates who also doesn't smoke, doesn't drink, doesn't go to the pub, theatre or non-Halal restaurants.

    Vaccine passports might get a few extra under 40s to get vaccinated, sure, but that's not going to change the healthcare situation. They will do precisely zero to get those over 60s who are unvaccinated into the funnel. The unvaccinated in these cohorts will not be inconvenienced by them because nowhere they go need them or will bother implementing them.

    Vaccine passports are another one of those "let's look like we're doing something" measures. A tax at least raises some money.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Looks like just over a million jabs a day is probably going to be max.

    They won't make target / aspiration, but will get a hell of a lot done.

    It was a stupid target
    The purpose of a target is to push yourself towards it.

    If things had been left to the NHS we would still be down at 200k per day.
    It is the Tories' fault we're in the booster hole, they spent all Summer doing sod all
    Given what we now know about boosters, if we had boostered oldies in the summer, we would be doing them again now.

    Should we have done kids during the summer holidays. Yes. But JCVI recommendations said no.

    Should we have done oldies slightly earlier and faster, and a wider group of oldies. Yes. But JCVI rules recommendations said no.

    You partisanship some times is way OTT.
    Why am only I attacked for partisanship even when I'm making a fairly reasonable point? I don't see you attacking Tories
    In this specific instance it isn't reasonable to expect a government to overturn the decision of an independent medical advisory committee. No sensible politician would, otherwise you get into Trump territory of advising bleach and giving anti-vaxxer massive amounts of ammunition.

    I have spent the past 2 years consistently pointing out the dumb shit the government have done time and time again. Go and check my 60k posts, there are absolutely loads of posts saying, FFS Boris has bottled a lockdown, he is leaving it too late. I was also massively critical of the idea of the tier system. I said we should have had border restrictions straight away during March 2020....I advocated for the sort of scheme Australia have employed....I said the government needed to kick SAGE up the arse in the summer and have them actually making a plan, when in fact they didn't meet for 2 months...

    I could go on and on and on.
    Agreed. The truth is, we don't know how bad Omicron will be. With vaccines the landing point for hospitalisations and serious illness is likely to be between somewhat better than Delta without vaccines and somewhat worse. That's what serious and informed people investigating this are coming up with, not all of whom can be dismissed because they don't accord with our prejudices.

    If we collectively think we are not prepared to do another lockdown and will take whatever Omicron throws at us, that's a valid decision to make. But let's not say, we're not doing another lockdown, and then do it anyway as the hospital system buckles under the strain.
    But the totally INFURIATING thing is that UKG has made virtually no attempt to punish, tax or chide the antivaxxers into getting the jab. They are the reason we are back in the shit. Look at @foxy's post today - every Covid victim in his ICU is unvaxxed

    WHY is the government so totally spineless on this issue? Fear of being seen as racist? Fear of the "libertarian lobby"?

    Before they make my life miserable, and condemn my kids to more damaged mental health, perhaps the fucking government could tackle the people who are causing all this shit, rather than jailing absolutely everyone
    This is the smartest thing you've said on COVID recently. Governments sooner or later are going to have to be a lot tougher on the anti-vaxxers. One obvious thing to do is to deprioritize anti-vaxxers for NHS treatment.
    I agree, but not your last sentence. That would be a slippery slope imo. (Next exclude, addicts, then those who caused their own injuries,... Where do you stop?)
    You stop with COVID as it's the only thing that pushes the NHS beyond its reserve capacity every few months.
  • In theory (assuming 100% uptake) there are another 17.7m people in the UK needing a booster in the next fortnight. To hit that target we'd need to vaccinate a little more than 1.25m a day.
This discussion has been closed.