- Cases rising. In London and Scotland, sharply. See the regional R numbers for case, below - Admissions rising. Again, in London and the other leading areas, sharply - Deaths still declining overall, though up in some regions.
Three of the four great offices of State - the Prime Minister, the Home Office and the Chancellor of the Exchequor - are occupied by people of below average height (for their sex).
Given politics tends to be dominated by the tall, this is really quite extraordinary.
I'm surprised that the Foreign Secretary isn't below average too?
He is below average, but I don't see what that's got to do with his height.
He??? Is Liz Truss identifying as male?
No doubt we can expect a header about it.....
I'm an idiot. I thought Raab was still FS. Apologies
Philip is going off the deep end with this anti COVID stuff
I'm not anti-Covid.
I'm anti-restrictions. I'm quite fine to live with Covid, since we have vaccines rolled out. I got my third jab this morning.
I'm positive now and self-isolating. I am not going to go on the bus and give it to people.
And do you think that magically means the people on the bus are never going to get it from anyone else? That's it, Covid is over because you stayed at home?
Its my view you shouldn't have to self-isolate. The virus is going to spread either way. Trying to contain its spread is doing more harm than it spreading.
If all you've got is like the common cold, then you should treat it no differently to how you'd have acted in the past with the common cold.
Thank you Doctor.
The point is well made though. We have had tens of thousands of deaths per year from "flu and pneumonia".
Asian tourists aside I don't remember people not getting the bus or anyone wearing masks previously.
Maybe if they had done, fewer people would have died?
Maybe so. But no one was crying out for fewer deaths so we must assume that was a price people were willing to pay.
Or that we had imperfect knowledge.
I hate masks as much as anyone, but I think we do have to consider the possibility that the Asians were onto something with the idea that basic consideration for others implies you should wear one if you think you might be infectious, eg on public transport, and that now that we know it's potentially a life saving intervention, we should follow suit.
You could catch the flu from someone who had it? This was not commonly known?
We knew it hence the flu jab and no one decided you wear a mask.
No; I meant it wasn't generally known that you could substantially reduce the risk of transmitting it by wearing a mask.
Seriously?
OK, "known" is the wrong word. What I'm shooting for is something like "before the pandemic, people with flu-like symptoms didn't actively consider whether it would be courteous to wear a mask on public transport, to prevent others from catching whatever it was they already had. The reason for this was that it wasn't in our cultural awareness to do so. Now, it very much is, because of Covid, and maybe that should transfer across to ordinary (non-life-threatening) flu and colds, as a continuing matter of courtesy to those who aren't sick, from those who might be infectious".
I don't necessarily agree with this, and obviously our mutual friend Mr Thompson has transformed into William Wallace on this issue, but I think it's worth considering - honestly, it's hard to construct an argument against it that doesn't sound unutterably selfish.
My take on this is that we do not, as a rule, want to promote the kind of society that bullies people over what they choose to wear. And I certainly reject the notion that the whole population should be made to shuffle around in masks forevermore, just in case they are asymptomatic carriers of this, that or the other respiratory illness.
What we should, however, do is end the culture of presenteeism and discourage people from leaving home if they are obviously unwell with these sorts of illnesses - or, if they do really need to go out, e.g. for essential groceries or medical appointments, then that would be the appropriate kind of occasion for mask use.
Preferably a medical grade mask though, if they can afford it, rather than a stupid piece of blue paper or something made out of a recycled pillowcase.
The Christmas spirit starting to move in with an early finish as most local councils have already closed for Christmas - that one's for you @NerysHughes
Amongst the blizzard of nonsense, the most interesting information seems to be the extent to which previous infection increases immunity. If I read @MaxPB's comments earlier, the people with most protection are those with three doses AND infection.
Those with just three doses and no infection rank fourth.
My only thought is for how long does immunity through infection last? Am I seriously to believe if you had Covid in April 2020 you are still enjoying a degree of immunity? Even those who had Delta early this year - are they still somehow enjoying some immunity?
The corollary of this would seem to be the Government's actions last spring in preventing further transmission via restrictions (successful at the time of course) have been slightly counter productive because most people were able to avoid the virus completely and, through vaccination, millions have continued to escape the virus. That leaves a bigger potential pool especially those who have had one dose or no dose.
Once this thing peaks it drops away very quickly - unsurprising given how quickly it peaks.
It fits with my theory that there are many people with Omicron that are not being detected, for various reasons, but including being asymptomatic or thinking it is a cold. If so Omicron could help accelerate the end of the pandemic. Fingers crossed!
First signs of the rate of change of growth decelerating in London (in that 14/12 Vs 7/12 isn't, yet, a bigger jump than 13/12 Vs 6/12)
Growth rates for all London with the addition of more 13/12 cases stand at:
All London: 138% week on week growth (13/12 Vs 6/12) Zone 1: 222% week on week growth (more than trebling).
Omicron Vs Delta status in UK:
Omicron exclusive strain: Nowhere Omicron major strain: Inner London Omicron soon to become major strain: Outer London Omicron switchover possibly underway: Central Scotland, West Essex, Manchester city Delta remains dominant: elsewhere
See if I can spot anything else in @Malmesbury blue chart.
No, not going to call Omicron switchover definite anywhere beyond London yet.
Broxbourne, Epping, Central Belt and Manchester staying on watchlist.
The Islands I'm not going to call due to the tyranny of all numbers - they swing from one extreme of the R chart to another like SeanT on a Friday night.
Once this thing peaks it drops away very quickly - unsurprising given how quickly it peaks.
It fits with my theory that there are many people with Omicron that are not being detected, for various reasons, but including being asymptomatic or thinking it is a cold. If so Omicron could help accelerate the end of the pandemic. Fingers crossed!
Of course, we've had the same idea with previous variants and it has turned out to be nonsense.
It does seem a lot more plausible this time, although presumably the ONS will pick this up if it is true?
Once this thing peaks it drops away very quickly - unsurprising given how quickly it peaks.
It fits with my theory that there are many people with Omicron that are not being detected, for various reasons, but including being asymptomatic or thinking it is a cold. If so Omicron could help accelerate the end of the pandemic. Fingers crossed!
Of course, we've had the same idea with previous variants and it has turned out to be nonsense.
It does seem a lot more plausible this time, although presumably the ONS will pick this up if it is true?
ONS data lag is roughly the same size as the time taken for an Omicron wave to go from 0 to peak, so it's going to be too late to make any difference.
Once this thing peaks it drops away very quickly - unsurprising given how quickly it peaks.
It fits with my theory that there are many people with Omicron that are not being detected, for various reasons, but including being asymptomatic or thinking it is a cold. If so Omicron could help accelerate the end of the pandemic. Fingers crossed!
Of course, we've had the same idea with previous variants and it has turned out to be nonsense.
It does seem a lot more plausible this time, although presumably the ONS will pick this up if it is true?
ONS data lag is roughly the same size as the time taken for an Omicron wave to go from 0 to peak, so it's going to be too late to make any difference.
Yes, I understand it won't help to make decisions, but it will eventually come out one way or another.
I should hammer them but the price is putting me off which I know is daft.
Nobody should be hammering anything. It's a 50/50 chance and nobody know which side is the value.
The chatter in LibDem circles seems to have turned positive the last day or two - based on feedback from local voters - but the mountain is so big that everyone remains nervous.
First signs of the rate of change of growth decelerating in London (in that 14/12 Vs 7/12 isn't, yet, a bigger jump than 13/12 Vs 6/12)
Growth rates for all London with the addition of more 13/12 cases stand at:
All London: 138% week on week growth (13/12 Vs 6/12) Zone 1: 222% week on week growth (more than trebling).
Omicron Vs Delta status in UK:
Omicron exclusive strain: Nowhere Omicron major strain: Inner London Omicron soon to become major strain: Outer London Omicron switchover possibly underway: Central Scotland, West Essex, Manchester city Delta remains dominant: elsewhere
See if I can spot anything else in @Malmesbury blue chart.
No, not going to call Omicron switchover definite anywhere beyond London yet.
Broxbourne, Epping, Central Belt and Manchester staying on watchlist.
The Islands I'm not going to call due to the tyranny of all numbers - they swing from one extreme of the R chart to another like SeanT on a Friday night.
Philip is going off the deep end with this anti COVID stuff
I'm not anti-Covid.
I'm anti-restrictions. I'm quite fine to live with Covid, since we have vaccines rolled out. I got my third jab this morning.
I'm positive now and self-isolating. I am not going to go on the bus and give it to people.
And do you think that magically means the people on the bus are never going to get it from anyone else? That's it, Covid is over because you stayed at home?
Its my view you shouldn't have to self-isolate. The virus is going to spread either way. Trying to contain its spread is doing more harm than it spreading.
If all you've got is like the common cold, then you should treat it no differently to how you'd have acted in the past with the common cold.
Thank you Doctor.
The point is well made though. We have had tens of thousands of deaths per year from "flu and pneumonia".
Asian tourists aside I don't remember people not getting the bus or anyone wearing masks previously.
Maybe if they had done, fewer people would have died?
Maybe so. But no one was crying out for fewer deaths so we must assume that was a price people were willing to pay.
Or that we had imperfect knowledge.
I hate masks as much as anyone, but I think we do have to consider the possibility that the Asians were onto something with the idea that basic consideration for others implies you should wear one if you think you might be infectious, eg on public transport, and that now that we know it's potentially a life saving intervention, we should follow suit.
You could catch the flu from someone who had it? This was not commonly known?
We knew it hence the flu jab and no one decided you wear a mask.
No; I meant it wasn't generally known that you could substantially reduce the risk of transmitting it by wearing a mask.
Seriously?
OK, "known" is the wrong word. What I'm shooting for is something like "before the pandemic, people with flu-like symptoms didn't actively consider whether it would be courteous to wear a mask on public transport, to prevent others from catching whatever it was they already had. The reason for this was that it wasn't in our cultural awareness to do so. Now, it very much is, because of Covid, and maybe that should transfer across to ordinary (non-life-threatening) flu and colds, as a continuing matter of courtesy to those who aren't sick, from those who might be infectious".
I don't necessarily agree with this, and obviously our mutual friend Mr Thompson has transformed into William Wallace on this issue, but I think it's worth considering - honestly, it's hard to construct an argument against it that doesn't sound unutterably selfish.
Was William Wallace known for spreading viruses on buses?
North Koreans have been banned from showing any sign of happiness for 11 days in order to commemorate the 10-year anniversary of the death of Kim Jong-il.
The restrictions include an explicit ban on laughter and alcohol during the 11-day period of mourning. On the exact anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s death, December 17, North Koreans will even be banned from going grocery shopping.
I should hammer them but the price is putting me off which I know is daft.
Nobody should be hammering anything. It's a 50/50 chance and nobody know which side is the value.
The chatter in LibDem circles seems to have turned positive the last day or two - based on feedback from local voters - but the mountain is so big that everyone remains nervous.
26.4% swing needed by the LDs to take the seat so not out of the question. Slightly more than achieved at C&A and between Orpington and Hodge Hill (2004).
Not as great as Brent East, Newbury or Christchurch (which saw a 35.4% swing).
Philip is going off the deep end with this anti COVID stuff
I'm not anti-Covid.
I'm anti-restrictions. I'm quite fine to live with Covid, since we have vaccines rolled out. I got my third jab this morning.
I'm positive now and self-isolating. I am not going to go on the bus and give it to people.
And do you think that magically means the people on the bus are never going to get it from anyone else? That's it, Covid is over because you stayed at home?
Its my view you shouldn't have to self-isolate. The virus is going to spread either way. Trying to contain its spread is doing more harm than it spreading.
If all you've got is like the common cold, then you should treat it no differently to how you'd have acted in the past with the common cold.
Thank you Doctor.
The point is well made though. We have had tens of thousands of deaths per year from "flu and pneumonia".
Asian tourists aside I don't remember people not getting the bus or anyone wearing masks previously.
Maybe if they had done, fewer people would have died?
Maybe so. But no one was crying out for fewer deaths so we must assume that was a price people were willing to pay.
Or that we had imperfect knowledge.
I hate masks as much as anyone, but I think we do have to consider the possibility that the Asians were onto something with the idea that basic consideration for others implies you should wear one if you think you might be infectious, eg on public transport, and that now that we know it's potentially a life saving intervention, we should follow suit.
You could catch the flu from someone who had it? This was not commonly known?
We knew it hence the flu jab and no one decided you wear a mask.
No; I meant it wasn't generally known that you could substantially reduce the risk of transmitting it by wearing a mask.
Seriously?
OK, "known" is the wrong word. What I'm shooting for is something like "before the pandemic, people with flu-like symptoms didn't actively consider whether it would be courteous to wear a mask on public transport, to prevent others from catching whatever it was they already had. The reason for this was that it wasn't in our cultural awareness to do so. Now, it very much is, because of Covid, and maybe that should transfer across to ordinary (non-life-threatening) flu and colds, as a continuing matter of courtesy to those who aren't sick, from those who might be infectious".
I don't necessarily agree with this, and obviously our mutual friend Mr Thompson has transformed into William Wallace on this issue, but I think it's worth considering - honestly, it's hard to construct an argument against it that doesn't sound unutterably selfish.
Was William Wallace known for spreading viruses on buses?
He certainly liked to have the freedom to ride around without Westminster interfering.
Once this thing peaks it drops away very quickly - unsurprising given how quickly it peaks.
It fits with my theory that there are many people with Omicron that are not being detected, for various reasons, but including being asymptomatic or thinking it is a cold. If so Omicron could help accelerate the end of the pandemic. Fingers crossed!
Of course, we've had the same idea with previous variants and it has turned out to be nonsense.
It does seem a lot more plausible this time, although presumably the ONS will pick this up if it is true?
Michael Levitt reckons that each wave like for like has a reduced severity of about 6 times. Which makes sense, as prior immunity kicks in at a population level. Sounds like Omnicron is going to brush up against the immune systems of almost everybody very quickly, filling in the naive immune systems (for better or worse) and broadening the protection of the rest of us.
Can you imagine if this is the version that had leaked from the lab though. Now that would've been a cluster.
Personally I think Leon is wrong to sell his shares, if there's a correction the bounce back could be brutally quick. I have taken his statement seriously because he made me a fortune in March 2020 but having reflected for 24 hrs, if anything I think this is now the beginning of the end of the pandemic.
Key highlights is that for 13/14 December Omicron in London was over 70% of cases. Doubling rate in almost all regions was under 2 days.
Good. If they're not minded to put more restrictions in place pre-xmas, then they might as well not bother as it's going to have peaked by then and we can get back to our lives.
I should hammer them but the price is putting me off which I know is daft.
Nobody should be hammering anything. It's a 50/50 chance and nobody know which side is the value.
The chatter in LibDem circles seems to have turned positive the last day or two - based on feedback from local voters - but the mountain is so big that everyone remains nervous.
26.4% swing needed by the LDs to take the seat so not out of the question. Slightly more than achieved at C&A and between Orpington and Hodge Hill (2004).
Not as great as Brent East, Newbury or Christchurch (which saw a 35.4% swing).
I think the lib dems can relax and enjoy their moment tomorrow
I just cannot see anything but a very good win for them
I should hammer them but the price is putting me off which I know is daft.
Nobody should be hammering anything. It's a 50/50 chance and nobody know which side is the value.
The chatter in LibDem circles seems to have turned positive the last day or two - based on feedback from local voters - but the mountain is so big that everyone remains nervous.
26.4% swing needed by the LDs to take the seat so not out of the question. Slightly more than achieved at C&A and between Orpington and Hodge Hill (2004).
Not as great as Brent East, Newbury or Christchurch (which saw a 35.4% swing).
In all of those the LibDems were in a clear two-horse contest from the outset.
The political backdrop has of course been exceptionally favourable - but it hangs on what one might call the Big_G factor - whether all the disgruntled Tories have got it off their chest moaning to canvassers and journalists and once in the polling booth will revert to type.
OT. "Uncool Britannia. Has the UK lost its Global appeal?"
They had a poll and something like 97% of Advertising Agencies and ancillary services were 'Remainers'. As a considerable contributor to invisible earnings this article is significant. It's not the Hartlipudlians who are keeping our creaking economy afloat
I should hammer them but the price is putting me off which I know is daft.
Nobody should be hammering anything. It's a 50/50 chance and nobody know which side is the value.
The chatter in LibDem circles seems to have turned positive the last day or two - based on feedback from local voters - but the mountain is so big that everyone remains nervous.
26.4% swing needed by the LDs to take the seat so not out of the question. Slightly more than achieved at C&A and between Orpington and Hodge Hill (2004).
Not as great as Brent East, Newbury or Christchurch (which saw a 35.4% swing).
In all of those the LibDems were in a clear two-horse contest from the outset.
The political backdrop has of course been exceptionally favourable - but it hangs on what one might call the Big_G factor - whether all the disgruntled Tories have got it off their chest moaning to canvassers and journalists and once in the polling booth will revert to type.
As I have said I would vote Lib Dem with the hope the 1922 would do the right thing in response
It's all just theatre.. watching the @Telegraph live feed of the latest press conference, no masks, chatting away 15mins pre start.. 1min to go, masks on.. 😁🤦 https://t.co/5b1CtvogLQ
🚨 | NEW: Robert Peston sits maskless speaking for 15 minutes to fellow hacks before the presser. He only put it on when the press conference began, when he was meant to be filmed
Oddly @Peston after coughing out loud, then theatrically asked a question about people not sticking to the rules... 😁🤦 You can't make this stuff up 🤡 https://t.co/7czswOmkmJ
It's all just theatre.. watching the @Telegraph live feed of the latest press conference, no masks, chatting away 15mins pre start.. 1min to go, masks on.. 😁🤦 https://t.co/5b1CtvogLQ
🚨 | NEW: Robert Peston sits maskless speaking for 15 minutes to fellow hacks before the presser. He only put it on when the press conference began, when he was meant to be filmed
Oddly @Peston after coughing out loud, then theatrically asked a question about people not sticking to the rules... 😁🤦 You can't make this stuff up 🤡 https://t.co/7czswOmkmJ
I should hammer them but the price is putting me off which I know is daft.
Nobody should be hammering anything. It's a 50/50 chance and nobody know which side is the value.
The chatter in LibDem circles seems to have turned positive the last day or two - based on feedback from local voters - but the mountain is so big that everyone remains nervous.
26.4% swing needed by the LDs to take the seat so not out of the question. Slightly more than achieved at C&A and between Orpington and Hodge Hill (2004).
Not as great as Brent East, Newbury or Christchurch (which saw a 35.4% swing).
In all of those the LibDems were in a clear two-horse contest from the outset.
The political backdrop has of course been exceptionally favourable - but it hangs on what one might call the Big_G factor - whether all the disgruntled Tories have got it off their chest moaning to canvassers and journalists and once in the polling booth will revert to type.
And as I have said before, it may also depend on how many voted postally before the Borishambles.
The chatter in LibDem circles seems to have turned positive the last day or two - based on feedback from local voters - but the mountain is so big that everyone remains nervous.
26.4% swing needed by the LDs to take the seat so not out of the question. Slightly more than achieved at C&A and between Orpington and Hodge Hill (2004).
Not as great as Brent East, Newbury or Christchurch (which saw a 35.4% swing).
In all of those the LibDems were in a clear two-horse contest from the outset.
The political backdrop has of course been exceptionally favourable - but it hangs on what one might call the Big_G factor - whether all the disgruntled Tories have got it off their chest moaning to canvassers and journalists and once in the polling booth will revert to type.
You say that but in both Hodge Hill and Brent East the LDs started from third. Both seats were held by the party in Government and in neither did the Conservative vote fall that much - 2% in Brent East and 2.7% in Hodge Hill.
Brent East was won with a 28.9% swing and Hodge Hill lost despite a 26.7% swing.
The key to North Shropshire will be the degree to which the LDs can squeeze the Labour vote. Labour got 22% in 2019 - getting that down to 5% would be crucial in getting over the Conservative mountain of a majority.
The Christmas spirit starting to move in with an early finish as most local councils have already closed for Christmas - that one's for you @NerysHughes
Amongst the blizzard of nonsense, the most interesting information seems to be the extent to which previous infection increases immunity. If I read @MaxPB's comments earlier, the people with most protection are those with three doses AND infection.
Those with just three doses and no infection rank fourth.
My only thought is for how long does immunity through infection last? Am I seriously to believe if you had Covid in April 2020 you are still enjoying a degree of immunity? Even those who had Delta early this year - are they still somehow enjoying some immunity?
The corollary of this would seem to be the Government's actions last spring in preventing further transmission via restrictions (successful at the time of course) have been slightly counter productive because most people were able to avoid the virus completely and, through vaccination, millions have continued to escape the virus. That leaves a bigger potential pool especially those who have had one dose or no dose.
Yeah, I was surprised last night that he rated prior infection so highly, it's why I thought people would find it interesting here. He didn't mention any timeframe, but did say the model was specific to an Alpha or Delta infection and severe symptoms for Omicron.
I don't think so on the latter point of preventing transmission early on, it would simply have toppled healthcare services and left us all in a really bad place with people dying simply because the NHS wouldn't have been able to cope with everyone needing treatment at the same time. I still fully believe that the March 2020 first lockdown was necessary.
On the group of people with one dose or no dose with no infection, yes, that's the big risk factor IMO, the two dose people will be fairly easy to convince to get a third one which will give them good enough immunity. We've both said it, there's just a real lack of urgency around getting people into the next step of vaccines, either their first or second dose. There's a lot of easy to capture people who have had just a single dose that could be convinced to get their second and a few harder to reach people who have had no vaccines that could be convinced by someone who speaks their own language or whatever to get jabbed. I don't think saying they can't go to football matches or nightclubs will convince a 78 year old Bangladeshi woman in Tower Hamlets that getting the vaccine is a good idea.
As someone pointed out earlier, I messed up with who the Foreign Secretary is.
It turns out all four holders of the Great Offices of State are below the average height for their sexes.
Both Ms Truss and Ms Patel are 5'3, against an average of 5ft 4.7in.
While Mr Sunak is 5'7, and Mr Johnson is 5'9, both shorter than the average of 5'10.
I do believe this is a first.
Isn't it also a major aberration to the norm that in politics, tallest wins?
Although as Boris appointed three of them, it may be the height equivalent of Boris playing the "If you want to look thin, hang around fat people" idea...
The chatter in LibDem circles seems to have turned positive the last day or two - based on feedback from local voters - but the mountain is so big that everyone remains nervous.
26.4% swing needed by the LDs to take the seat so not out of the question. Slightly more than achieved at C&A and between Orpington and Hodge Hill (2004).
Not as great as Brent East, Newbury or Christchurch (which saw a 35.4% swing).
In all of those the LibDems were in a clear two-horse contest from the outset.
The political backdrop has of course been exceptionally favourable - but it hangs on what one might call the Big_G factor - whether all the disgruntled Tories have got it off their chest moaning to canvassers and journalists and once in the polling booth will revert to type.
You say that but in both Hodge Hill and Brent East the LDs started from third. Both seats were held by the party in Government and in neither did the Conservative vote fall that much - 2% in Brent East and 2.7% in Hodge Hill.
Brent East was won with a 28.9% swing and Hodge Hill lost despite a 26.7% swing.
The key to North Shropshire will be the degree to which the LDs can squeeze the Labour vote. Labour got 22% in 2019 - getting that down to 5% would be crucial in getting over the Conservative mountain of a majority.
North Koreans have been banned from showing any sign of happiness for 11 days in order to commemorate the 10-year anniversary of the death of Kim Jong-il.
The restrictions include an explicit ban on laughter and alcohol during the 11-day period of mourning. On the exact anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s death, December 17, North Koreans will even be banned from going grocery shopping.
North Koreans have been banned from showing any sign of happiness for 11 days in order to commemorate the 10-year anniversary of the death of Kim Jong-il.
The restrictions include an explicit ban on laughter and alcohol during the 11-day period of mourning. On the exact anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s death, December 17, North Koreans will even be banned from going grocery shopping.
Key highlights is that for 13/14 December Omicron in London was over 70% of cases. Doubling rate in almost all regions was under 2 days.
Good. If they're not minded to put more restrictions in place pre-xmas, then they might as well not bother as it's going to have peaked by then and we can get back to our lives.
If there's not a dramatic volte face over restrictions come the previously trailed review date on Saturday 18th, then that has to be it until after Christmas: not enough time to clamp down, on top of which I suspect that the Government realises that most people won't pay attention to instructions not to see their families for a second festive season on the bounce in any event.
The enormous tsunami of cases that will likely be precipitated by a week-and-a-bit of relatively light touch regulation, followed by all those Christmas dinners, may well mean that the virus ends up being so widespread as well as transmissible that lockdown is useless against it.
It may end up being a case simply of crossing our fingers and hoping that Omicron doesn't put too many people in hospital at the same time, because there'll be little of value that can be done to slow its progress.
The chatter in LibDem circles seems to have turned positive the last day or two - based on feedback from local voters - but the mountain is so big that everyone remains nervous.
26.4% swing needed by the LDs to take the seat so not out of the question. Slightly more than achieved at C&A and between Orpington and Hodge Hill (2004).
Not as great as Brent East, Newbury or Christchurch (which saw a 35.4% swing).
In all of those the LibDems were in a clear two-horse contest from the outset.
The political backdrop has of course been exceptionally favourable - but it hangs on what one might call the Big_G factor - whether all the disgruntled Tories have got it off their chest moaning to canvassers and journalists and once in the polling booth will revert to type.
You say that but in both Hodge Hill and Brent East the LDs started from third. Both seats were held by the party in Government and in neither did the Conservative vote fall that much - 2% in Brent East and 2.7% in Hodge Hill.
Brent East was won with a 28.9% swing and Hodge Hill lost despite a 26.7% swing.
The key to North Shropshire will be the degree to which the LDs can squeeze the Labour vote. Labour got 22% in 2019 - getting that down to 5% would be crucial in getting over the Conservative mountain of a majority.
And if they do, then SKS will have to resign!
Yes! I demanded Blair's head after Oaten won Winchester in 1997 too.
Three of the four great offices of State - the Prime Minister, the Home Office and the Chancellor of the Exchequor - are occupied by people of below average height (for their sex).
Given politics tends to be dominated by the tall, this is really quite extraordinary.
I'm sure having a short male prime minister has nothing to do with it.
But I'm in favour anyway - tall people are far more likely to be over promoted and cock things up, even if this particular set of short stacks are all useless too.
Napoleon was reputed to be a smaller man. He also appears to have been fairly adept at politics and war...
Key highlights is that for 13/14 December Omicron in London was over 70% of cases. Doubling rate in almost all regions was under 2 days.
Good. If they're not minded to put more restrictions in place pre-xmas, then they might as well not bother as it's going to have peaked by then and we can get back to our lives.
If there's not a dramatic volte face over restrictions come the previously trailed review date on Saturday 18th, then that has to be it until after Christmas: not enough time to clamp down, on top of which I suspect that the Government realises that most people won't pay attention to instructions not to see their families for a second festive season on the bounce in any event.
The enormous tsunami of cases that will likely be precipitated by a week-and-a-bit of relatively light touch regulation, followed by all those Christmas dinners, may well mean that the virus ends up being so widespread as well as transmissible that lockdown is useless against it.
It may end up being a case simply of crossing our fingers and hoping that Omicron doesn't put too many people in hospital at the same time, because there'll be little of value that can be done to slow its progress.
Yep, think we're there already, I'm just hoping we don't get token damaging measures to pad the defense folder for the inquiry.
Interesting you mention that. I read somewhere by someone literary that question marks are redundant because it is implied by the sentence and hence to use them is clumsy and crass.
I'm glad you noticed that I didn't use one because I try not to use them at all now.
I hope also you note a concomitant improvement in the literary flair and verve of my posts.
No DCL, Richarlison, Townsend, Digne and probably no Coleman v Chelsea tonight. Benitez should have ensured the rest got COVID. Instead of dicking about playing football games.
North Koreans have been banned from showing any sign of happiness for 11 days in order to commemorate the 10-year anniversary of the death of Kim Jong-il.
The restrictions include an explicit ban on laughter and alcohol during the 11-day period of mourning. On the exact anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s death, December 17, North Koreans will even be banned from going grocery shopping.
No DCL, Richarlison, Townsend, Digne and probably no Coleman v Chelsea tonight. Benitez should have ensured the rest got COVID. Instead of dicking about playing football games.
No Van Dijk tonight due to Covid-19 according to well placed sources.
As @Mexicanpete pointed out below - if the Tories think things are bad now wait until April / May when everyone sees their next payslip with the NI deduction, a reduced pay increase due to the Employer NI increase and their new gas / electricity bills.
And for those complaining it's trivial etc.- yes, absolutely it is, almost from the Dom playbook. But Sunak lives by the photoshoot, so I reckon it's fair game. Truss next.
As @Mexicanpete pointed out below - if the Tories think things are bad now wait until April / May when everyone sees their next payslip with the NI deduction, a reduced pay increase due to the Employer NI increase and their new gas / electricity bills.
Oh and a hefty council tax increase.
Let's not forget any variable rate mortgages also.
No DCL, Richarlison, Townsend, Digne and probably no Coleman v Chelsea tonight. Benitez should have ensured the rest got COVID. Instead of dicking about playing football games.
No Van Dijk tonight due to Covid-19 according to well placed sources.
Time to bet on the barcodes winning tonight.
As @Gallowgate can confirm we need the points (however we get them).
Tories seemed to have settled around 32% but that was before Sunak was found to be living it up on a Californian beach while interest rates went up for only the third time in ten years.
Is anyone in government interested in their day job?
As @Mexicanpete pointed out below - if the Tories think things are bad now wait until April / May when everyone sees their next payslip with the NI deduction, a reduced pay increase due to the Employer NI increase and their new gas / electricity bills.
Oh and a hefty council tax increase.
Let's not forget any variable rate mortgages also.
I suspect it will take a fair few base rate increases for it to really impact variable rates to the point people notice.
The chatter in LibDem circles seems to have turned positive the last day or two - based on feedback from local voters - but the mountain is so big that everyone remains nervous.
26.4% swing needed by the LDs to take the seat so not out of the question. Slightly more than achieved at C&A and between Orpington and Hodge Hill (2004).
Not as great as Brent East, Newbury or Christchurch (which saw a 35.4% swing).
In all of those the LibDems were in a clear two-horse contest from the outset.
The political backdrop has of course been exceptionally favourable - but it hangs on what one might call the Big_G factor - whether all the disgruntled Tories have got it off their chest moaning to canvassers and journalists and once in the polling booth will revert to type.
You say that but in both Hodge Hill and Brent East the LDs started from third. Both seats were held by the party in Government and in neither did the Conservative vote fall that much - 2% in Brent East and 2.7% in Hodge Hill.
Brent East was won with a 28.9% swing and Hodge Hill lost despite a 26.7% swing.
The key to North Shropshire will be the degree to which the LDs can squeeze the Labour vote. Labour got 22% in 2019 - getting that down to 5% would be crucial in getting over the Conservative mountain of a majority.
And if they do, then SKS will have to resign!
Yes! I demanded Blair's head after Oaten won Winchester in 1997 too.
Lol.
The parallel, of course, is that Brent East contributed to the downfall of IDS.
No DCL, Richarlison, Townsend, Digne and probably no Coleman v Chelsea tonight. Benitez should have ensured the rest got COVID. Instead of dicking about playing football games.
No Van Dijk tonight due to Covid-19 according to well placed sources.
Time to bet on the barcodes winning tonight.
As @Gallowgate can confirm we need the points (however we get them).
Apparently it is running wild in the Liverpool squad and we've got a 99% double jabbed first team squad and staff.
Tories seemed to have settled around 32% but that was before Sunak was found to be living it up on a Californian beach while interest rates went up for only the third time in ten years.
Is anyone in government interested in their day job?
He was doing his day job discussing IT investment into the UK
Tories seemed to have settled around 32% but that was before Sunak was found to be living it up on a Californian beach while interest rates went up for only the third time in ten years.
Is anyone in government interested in their day job?
He was doing his day job discussing IT investment into the UK
UK public don’t want ‘perennial fights of a permanent Brexit’ with EU – report Report by the European Council on Foreign Relations says that more people see bloc as a key partner than the US
Polling for the report found people were evenly split on who was most to blame for the current dire state of relations between the UK and EU, with 39% blaming Britain and 38% saying they considered the bloc responsible.
The ECFR survey found only 6% of respondents favoured a UK foreign policy that prioritised Britain’s military strength, while 40% said they would like foreign policy to focus primarily on strengthening the domestic economy.
Tories seemed to have settled around 32% but that was before Sunak was found to be living it up on a Californian beach while interest rates went up for only the third time in ten years.
Is anyone in government interested in their day job?
He was doing his day job discussing IT investment into the UK
He's a pound shop Nero, fiddling whilst hospitality burns.
No DCL, Richarlison, Townsend, Digne and probably no Coleman v Chelsea tonight. Benitez should have ensured the rest got COVID. Instead of dicking about playing football games.
No Van Dijk tonight due to Covid-19 according to well placed sources.
Time to bet on the barcodes winning tonight.
The entire squad could be dead. And they'd probably be able to raise a decent enough side just from the crowd.
No DCL, Richarlison, Townsend, Digne and probably no Coleman v Chelsea tonight. Benitez should have ensured the rest got COVID. Instead of dicking about playing football games.
No Van Dijk tonight due to Covid-19 according to well placed sources.
Time to bet on the barcodes winning tonight.
The entire squad could be dead. And they'd probably be able to raise a decent enough side just from the crowd.
Against Newcastle - the first 14 people through the turnstile should be good enough.
Comments
- Cases rising. In London and Scotland, sharply. See the regional R numbers for case, below
- Admissions rising. Again, in London and the other leading areas, sharply
- Deaths still declining overall, though up in some regions.
~12p/kWh
April’s energy price cap rise is gonna hurt
Makes no sense to me.
What we should, however, do is end the culture of presenteeism and discourage people from leaving home if they are obviously unwell with these sorts of illnesses - or, if they do really need to go out, e.g. for essential groceries or medical appointments, then that would be the appropriate kind of occasion for mask use.
Preferably a medical grade mask though, if they can afford it, rather than a stupid piece of blue paper or something made out of a recycled pillowcase.
I thought there was a cap now until April?
Fell 30% yesterday week on week.
Today is fell 43%.
Once this thing peaks it drops away very quickly - unsurprising given how quickly it peaks.
The Christmas spirit starting to move in with an early finish as most local councils have already closed for Christmas - that one's for you @NerysHughes
Amongst the blizzard of nonsense, the most interesting information seems to be the extent to which previous infection increases immunity. If I read @MaxPB's comments earlier, the people with most protection are those with three doses AND infection.
Those with just three doses and no infection rank fourth.
My only thought is for how long does immunity through infection last? Am I seriously to believe if you had Covid in April 2020 you are still enjoying a degree of immunity? Even those who had Delta early this year - are they still somehow enjoying some immunity?
The corollary of this would seem to be the Government's actions last spring in preventing further transmission via restrictions (successful at the time of course) have been slightly counter productive because most people were able to avoid the virus completely and, through vaccination, millions have continued to escape the virus. That leaves a bigger potential pool especially those who have had one dose or no dose.
Seriously though, that's shocking. Hope it doesn't disrupt the vaccinations too much.
Broxbourne, Epping, Central Belt and Manchester staying on watchlist.
The Islands I'm not going to call due to the tyranny of all numbers - they swing from one extreme of the R chart to another like SeanT on a Friday night.
It does seem a lot more plausible this time, although presumably the ONS will pick this up if it is true?
With cases hitting national peak more or less now, can expect that to continue to rise for about a week.
For comparison, RSA has ~120k hospital beds, so a very similar scale comparison to UK.
Looks a long shot for covid to occupy more than 10% of hospital beds, vs the nearly 30% we had in the UK last Jan.
My benchmark of what a good job earns was set as a child, and now, so now I feel much better off and more senior than I really am.
Presumably, softer oil prices suggesting the great post-pandemic boom has run its course and we're back to the new economic normal.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19789123.nicola-sturgeon-update-today---first-minister-day-unscheduled-announcement/
The restrictions include an explicit ban on laughter and alcohol during the 11-day period of mourning. On the exact anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s death, December 17, North Koreans will even be banned from going grocery shopping.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/12/16/north-korea-bans-laughing-11-days-mourning-10th-anniversary/
Not as great as Brent East, Newbury or Christchurch (which saw a 35.4% swing).
Can you imagine if this is the version that had leaked from the lab though. Now that would've been a cluster.
Personally I think Leon is wrong to sell his shares, if there's a correction the bounce back could be brutally quick. I have taken his statement seriously because he made me a fortune in March 2020 but having reflected for 24 hrs, if anything I think this is now the beginning of the end of the pandemic.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1041833/20211216_OS_Daily_Omicron_Overview.pdf
Key highlights is that for 13/14 December Omicron in London was over 70% of cases.
Doubling rate in almost all regions was under 2 days.
Muppet
I just cannot see anything but a very good win for them
The political backdrop has of course been exceptionally favourable - but it hangs on what one might call the Big_G factor - whether all the disgruntled Tories have got it off their chest moaning to canvassers and journalists and once in the polling booth will revert to type.
They had a poll and something like 97% of Advertising Agencies and ancillary services were 'Remainers'. As a considerable contributor to invisible earnings this article is significant. It's not the Hartlipudlians who are keeping our creaking economy afloat
https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/uncool-britannia-uk-lost-its-global-appeal/1735874?bulletin=campaign_creativity_bulletin&utm_medium=EMAIL&utm_campaign=eNews Bulletin&utm_source=20211216&utm_content=Campaign Creativity Fix (105)::www_campaignlive_co_uk_ar_3&email_hash=
🚨 | NEW: Robert Peston sits maskless speaking for 15 minutes to fellow hacks before the presser. He only put it on when the press conference began, when he was meant to be filmed
https://t.co/R3FyA4G3b6
Oddly @Peston after coughing out loud, then theatrically asked a question about people not sticking to the rules... 😁🤦 You can't make this stuff up 🤡 https://t.co/7czswOmkmJ
It turns out all four holders of the Great Offices of State are below the average height for their sexes.
Both Ms Truss and Ms Patel are 5'3, against an average of 5ft 4.7in.
While Mr Sunak is 5'7, and Mr Johnson is 5'9, both shorter than the average of 5'10.
I do believe this is a first.
Brent East was won with a 28.9% swing and Hodge Hill lost despite a 26.7% swing.
The key to North Shropshire will be the degree to which the LDs can squeeze the Labour vote. Labour got 22% in 2019 - getting that down to 5% would be crucial in getting over the Conservative mountain of a majority.
I don't think so on the latter point of preventing transmission early on, it would simply have toppled healthcare services and left us all in a really bad place with people dying simply because the NHS wouldn't have been able to cope with everyone needing treatment at the same time. I still fully believe that the March 2020 first lockdown was necessary.
On the group of people with one dose or no dose with no infection, yes, that's the big risk factor IMO, the two dose people will be fairly easy to convince to get a third one which will give them good enough immunity. We've both said it, there's just a real lack of urgency around getting people into the next step of vaccines, either their first or second dose. There's a lot of easy to capture people who have had just a single dose that could be convinced to get their second and a few harder to reach people who have had no vaccines that could be convinced by someone who speaks their own language or whatever to get jabbed. I don't think saying they can't go to football matches or nightclubs will convince a 78 year old Bangladeshi woman in Tower Hamlets that getting the vaccine is a good idea.
Although as Boris appointed three of them, it may be the height equivalent of Boris playing the "If you want to look thin, hang around fat people" idea...
What scale are you using?
As for grocery shopping, is there anything in the shops to buy?
Also, Johnson allegedly appoints tall mps to the treasury as part of the War against Sunak
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10053193/Is-Boris-Johnson-unleashing-Big-Beasts-make-5ft-6in-Rishi-Sunak-feel-small.html
The enormous tsunami of cases that will likely be precipitated by a week-and-a-bit of relatively light touch regulation, followed by all those Christmas dinners, may well mean that the virus ends up being so widespread as well as transmissible that lockdown is useless against it.
It may end up being a case simply of crossing our fingers and hoping that Omicron doesn't put too many people in hospital at the same time, because there'll be little of value that can be done to slow its progress.
Italy Germany England and Hungary in group A
We are governed by dwarves !
I'm glad you noticed that I didn't use one because I try not to use them at all now.
I hope also you note a concomitant improvement in the literary flair and verve of my posts.
Benitez should have ensured the rest got COVID.
Instead of dicking about playing football games.
Hopes of a strongish Labour showing splitting the anti-Tory votes have evaporated, sources say.
Usual caveats of expectation management etc but those I've spoken to sound like someone has pissed on their chips.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1471542007961198598
Time to bet on the barcodes winning tonight.
Oh and a hefty council tax increase.
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1471479648055930883
And for those complaining it's trivial etc.- yes, absolutely it is, almost from the Dom playbook. But Sunak lives by the photoshoot, so I reckon it's fair game. Truss next.
Is anyone in government interested in their day job?
The parallel, of course, is that Brent East contributed to the downfall of IDS.
https://twitter.com/bnhwalker/status/1471471698734206986
Report by the European Council on Foreign Relations says that more people see bloc as a key partner than the US
Polling for the report found people were evenly split on who was most to blame for the current dire state of relations between the UK and EU, with 39% blaming Britain and 38% saying they considered the bloc responsible.
The ECFR survey found only 6% of respondents favoured a UK foreign policy that prioritised Britain’s military strength, while 40% said they would like foreign policy to focus primarily on strengthening the domestic economy.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/16/uk-public-dont-want-perennial-fights-of-a-permanent-brexit-with-eu-report