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What Priti and Dom should do next – politicalbetting.com

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  • stodge said:

    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    IanB2 said:


    The chatter in LibDem circles seems to have turned positive the last day or two - based on feedback from local voters - but the mountain is so big that everyone remains nervous.

    26.4% swing needed by the LDs to take the seat so not out of the question. Slightly more than achieved at C&A and between Orpington and Hodge Hill (2004).

    Not as great as Brent East, Newbury or Christchurch (which saw a 35.4% swing).
    In all of those the LibDems were in a clear two-horse contest from the outset.

    The political backdrop has of course been exceptionally favourable - but it hangs on what one might call the Big_G factor - whether all the disgruntled Tories have got it off their chest moaning to canvassers and journalists and once in the polling booth will revert to type.
    You say that but in both Hodge Hill and Brent East the LDs started from third. Both seats were held by the party in Government and in neither did the Conservative vote fall that much - 2% in Brent East and 2.7% in Hodge Hill.

    Brent East was won with a 28.9% swing and Hodge Hill lost despite a 26.7% swing.

    The key to North Shropshire will be the degree to which the LDs can squeeze the Labour vote. Labour got 22% in 2019 - getting that down to 5% would be crucial in getting over the Conservative mountain of a majority.
    And if they do, then SKS will have to resign!
    What? For failing to win a constituency that they have zero chance of winning?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    I have to say whatever happens with big Omi, it's going to be over very quickly.
  • UK public don’t want ‘perennial fights of a permanent Brexit’ with EU – report
    Report by the European Council on Foreign Relations says that more people see bloc as a key partner than the US

    Polling for the report found people were evenly split on who was most to blame for the current dire state of relations between the UK and EU, with 39% blaming Britain and 38% saying they considered the bloc responsible.

    The ECFR survey found only 6% of respondents favoured a UK foreign policy that prioritised Britain’s military strength, while 40% said they would like foreign policy to focus primarily on strengthening the domestic economy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/16/uk-public-dont-want-perennial-fights-of-a-permanent-brexit-with-eu-report

    I agree with that but rejoining is not a precondition for a closer relationship

    Indeed the main stream UK parties are not discussing rejoining
  • MaxPB said:

    I have to say whatever happens with big Omi, it's going to be over very quickly.

    Boris ?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Just for a pleasant change off topic and I'm on the olives and toast and wine - the first real millipede with more than 1K legs.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/16/the-first-true-millipede-new-species-with-more-than-1000-legs-discovered-in-western-australia
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    Late afternoon all :)

    The Christmas spirit starting to move in with an early finish as most local councils have already closed for Christmas - that one's for you @NerysHughes

    Amongst the blizzard of nonsense, the most interesting information seems to be the extent to which previous infection increases immunity. If I read @MaxPB's comments earlier, the people with most protection are those with three doses AND infection.

    Those with just three doses and no infection rank fourth.

    My only thought is for how long does immunity through infection last? Am I seriously to believe if you had Covid in April 2020 you are still enjoying a degree of immunity? Even those who had Delta early this year - are they still somehow enjoying some immunity?

    The corollary of this would seem to be the Government's actions last spring in preventing further transmission via restrictions (successful at the time of course) have been slightly counter productive because most people were able to avoid the virus completely and, through vaccination, millions have continued to escape the virus. That leaves a bigger potential pool especially those who have had one dose or no dose.

    Yeah, I was surprised last night that he rated prior infection so highly, it's why I thought people would find it interesting here. He didn't mention any timeframe, but did say the model was specific to an Alpha or Delta infection and severe symptoms for Omicron.

    I don't think so on the latter point of preventing transmission early on, it would simply have toppled healthcare services and left us all in a really bad place with people dying simply because the NHS wouldn't have been able to cope with everyone needing treatment at the same time. I still fully believe that the March 2020 first lockdown was necessary.

    On the group of people with one dose or no dose with no infection, yes, that's the big risk factor IMO, the two dose people will be fairly easy to convince to get a third one which will give them good enough immunity. We've both said it, there's just a real lack of urgency around getting people into the next step of vaccines, either their first or second dose. There's a lot of easy to capture people who have had just a single dose that could be convinced to get their second and a few harder to reach people who have had no vaccines that could be convinced by someone who speaks their own language or whatever to get jabbed. I don't think saying they can't go to football matches or nightclubs will convince a 78 year old Bangladeshi woman in Tower Hamlets that getting the vaccine is a good idea.
    More died in Pfizer's experimental group than in its control group. (But yes, it reduced the severity of COVID infections, even if more died of other conditions.)

    If she knew this, why would a Bangladeshi woman in Tower Hamlets want the mRNA injection?

    Her home country is poorer than the UK but has done rather well using cheap, generic drugs.
  • MaxPB said:

    I have to say whatever happens with big Omi, it's going to be over very quickly.

    The variant Π strikes?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    edited December 2021
    Carnyx said:

    Just for a pleasant change off topic and I'm on the olives and toast and wine - the first real millipede with more than 1K legs.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/16/the-first-true-millipede-new-species-with-more-than-1000-legs-discovered-in-western-australia

    2020 and 2021 have made me utterly fearful of anything new, kill it with fire, just to be sure.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    MaxPB said:

    I have to say whatever happens with big Omi, it's going to be over very quickly.

    The variant Π strikes?
    Easy as to defeat though.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    No DCL, Richarlison, Townsend, Digne and probably no Coleman v Chelsea tonight.
    Benitez should have ensured the rest got COVID.
    Instead of dicking about playing football games.

    No Van Dijk tonight due to Covid-19 according to well placed sources.

    Time to bet on the barcodes winning tonight.
    As @Gallowgate can confirm we need the points (however we get them).
    Apparently it is running wild in the Liverpool squad and we've got a 99% double jabbed first team squad and staff.
    This will not do. However once one gets it, you know what will likely follow.

    Tim Spector claiming today that no severe cases of Omicron in the UK amongst people who have been vaccinated. That's surely great news so far.

    Number of people on ventilators in London has barely risen in recent weeks either. Still around the 200 mark.

    And I want to see figures for total hospital bed numbers.
  • Scott_xP said:

    JUST IN: Senior Tories think they have lost North Shropshire.

    Hopes of a strongish Labour showing splitting the anti-Tory votes have evaporated, sources say.

    Usual caveats of expectation management etc but those I've spoken to sound like someone has pissed on their chips.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1471542007961198598

    We can only hope.....
    Tory out at 2.5 on BF
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    Late afternoon all :)

    The Christmas spirit starting to move in with an early finish as most local councils have already closed for Christmas - that one's for you @NerysHughes

    Amongst the blizzard of nonsense, the most interesting information seems to be the extent to which previous infection increases immunity. If I read @MaxPB's comments earlier, the people with most protection are those with three doses AND infection.

    Those with just three doses and no infection rank fourth.

    My only thought is for how long does immunity through infection last? Am I seriously to believe if you had Covid in April 2020 you are still enjoying a degree of immunity? Even those who had Delta early this year - are they still somehow enjoying some immunity?

    The corollary of this would seem to be the Government's actions last spring in preventing further transmission via restrictions (successful at the time of course) have been slightly counter productive because most people were able to avoid the virus completely and, through vaccination, millions have continued to escape the virus. That leaves a bigger potential pool especially those who have had one dose or no dose.

    Yeah, I was surprised last night that he rated prior infection so highly, it's why I thought people would find it interesting here. He didn't mention any timeframe, but did say the model was specific to an Alpha or Delta infection and severe symptoms for Omicron.

    I don't think so on the latter point of preventing transmission early on, it would simply have toppled healthcare services and left us all in a really bad place with people dying simply because the NHS wouldn't have been able to cope with everyone needing treatment at the same time. I still fully believe that the March 2020 first lockdown was necessary.

    On the group of people with one dose or no dose with no infection, yes, that's the big risk factor IMO, the two dose people will be fairly easy to convince to get a third one which will give them good enough immunity. We've both said it, there's just a real lack of urgency around getting people into the next step of vaccines, either their first or second dose. There's a lot of easy to capture people who have had just a single dose that could be convinced to get their second and a few harder to reach people who have had no vaccines that could be convinced by someone who speaks their own language or whatever to get jabbed. I don't think saying they can't go to football matches or nightclubs will convince a 78 year old Bangladeshi woman in Tower Hamlets that getting the vaccine is a good idea.
    More died in Pfizer's experimental group than in its control group. (But yes, it reduced the severity of COVID infections, even if more died of other conditions.)

    If she knew this, why would a Bangladeshi woman in Tower Hamlets want the mRNA injection?

    Her home country is poorer than the UK but has done rather well using cheap, generic drugs.
    🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄

    Weirdo.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Count for the North Shropshire by-election will take place in Shrewsbury Sports Village, five miles outside the seat. Declaration anticipated to be between 2-5am.
    https://twitter.com/bnhwalker/status/1471471698734206986

    The lib dems will walk it
    Am surprised at the prices given BigG and PT have both said would be voting LD. Two very different loyalists defenders on a protest vote is not a good sign for the Tories.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    I know somebody has linked to this before, but I reckon this is pretty sharp campaigning from Labour - Sunak in a hammock enjoying California......

    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1471479648055930883

    And for those complaining it's trivial etc.- yes, absolutely it is, almost from the Dom playbook. But Sunak lives by the photoshoot, so I reckon it's fair game. Truss next.

    Yep, have to get stuck into the likely replacements - just in case.
  • Scott_xP said:

    JUST IN: Senior Tories think they have lost North Shropshire.

    Hopes of a strongish Labour showing splitting the anti-Tory votes have evaporated, sources say.

    Usual caveats of expectation management etc but those I've spoken to sound like someone has pissed on their chips.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1471542007961198598

    He has an update

    MPs on the ground saying they might just scrape it... so take your pick of classic by-election spin!

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1471546510059917320
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IshmaelZ said:

    North Koreans have been banned from showing any sign of happiness for 11 days in order to commemorate the 10-year anniversary of the death of Kim Jong-il.

    The restrictions include an explicit ban on laughter and alcohol during the 11-day period of mourning. On the exact anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s death, December 17, North Koreans will even be banned from going grocery shopping.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/12/16/north-korea-bans-laughing-11-days-mourning-10th-anniversary/

    It’s enough to make you laugh
  • Scott_xP said:

    JUST IN: Senior Tories think they have lost North Shropshire.

    Hopes of a strongish Labour showing splitting the anti-Tory votes have evaporated, sources say.

    Usual caveats of expectation management etc but those I've spoken to sound like someone has pissed on their chips.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1471542007961198598

    We can only hope.....
    Johnson needs a good shellacking to wake him up from the mess on all sides.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Metropolitan Police has received a "significant amount of material" about Xmas Party claims but confirms no investigation at moment

    Force is "making contact" with two people who attended CCHQ Party last Christmas over alleged breaches of Covid laws


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    I still think the Tories will win NS due to Lab vote splitting.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    Also Newcastle clearly wont win tonight either
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Scott_xP said:

    Count for the North Shropshire by-election will take place in Shrewsbury Sports Village, five miles outside the seat. Declaration anticipated to be between 2-5am.
    https://twitter.com/bnhwalker/status/1471471698734206986

    I reckon it’ll be a getting up early one rather than a stay up late.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    Although if we beat Liverpool 8-0 we'd be out of the relegation zone.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,520
    edited December 2021

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    Seriously?

    WTF does it matter if they have an 'X' in their passport? It is a matter for them. It will not make the slightest difference to me or anyone else on here. The world will not stop.

    It does matter because it changes the purpose of that field on a passport/
    And what difference does it make?
    Why not just abolish the field? I don't see it's much more use than vegetarian/vegan/prefer not to say.
    I agree.
    Not possible for e-passports. Position 21 on the second row of the International Standard epassport code defines sex of the holder.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    Late afternoon all :)

    The Christmas spirit starting to move in with an early finish as most local councils have already closed for Christmas - that one's for you @NerysHughes

    Amongst the blizzard of nonsense, the most interesting information seems to be the extent to which previous infection increases immunity. If I read @MaxPB's comments earlier, the people with most protection are those with three doses AND infection.

    Those with just three doses and no infection rank fourth.

    My only thought is for how long does immunity through infection last? Am I seriously to believe if you had Covid in April 2020 you are still enjoying a degree of immunity? Even those who had Delta early this year - are they still somehow enjoying some immunity?

    The corollary of this would seem to be the Government's actions last spring in preventing further transmission via restrictions (successful at the time of course) have been slightly counter productive because most people were able to avoid the virus completely and, through vaccination, millions have continued to escape the virus. That leaves a bigger potential pool especially those who have had one dose or no dose.

    Yeah, I was surprised last night that he rated prior infection so highly, it's why I thought people would find it interesting here. He didn't mention any timeframe, but did say the model was specific to an Alpha or Delta infection and severe symptoms for Omicron.

    I don't think so on the latter point of preventing transmission early on, it would simply have toppled healthcare services and left us all in a really bad place with people dying simply because the NHS wouldn't have been able to cope with everyone needing treatment at the same time. I still fully believe that the March 2020 first lockdown was necessary.

    On the group of people with one dose or no dose with no infection, yes, that's the big risk factor IMO, the two dose people will be fairly easy to convince to get a third one which will give them good enough immunity. We've both said it, there's just a real lack of urgency around getting people into the next step of vaccines, either their first or second dose. There's a lot of easy to capture people who have had just a single dose that could be convinced to get their second and a few harder to reach people who have had no vaccines that could be convinced by someone who speaks their own language or whatever to get jabbed. I don't think saying they can't go to football matches or nightclubs will convince a 78 year old Bangladeshi woman in Tower Hamlets that getting the vaccine is a good idea.
    More died in Pfizer's experimental group than in its control group. (But yes, it reduced the severity of COVID infections, even if more died of other conditions.)

    If she knew this, why would a Bangladeshi woman in Tower Hamlets want the mRNA injection?

    Her home country is poorer than the UK but has done rather well using cheap, generic drugs.
    🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄

    Weirdo.

    I go by data and try to ignore people pushing a narrative.

    Sorry that you're unaware of the TNI.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Count for the North Shropshire by-election will take place in Shrewsbury Sports Village, five miles outside the seat. Declaration anticipated to be between 2-5am.
    https://twitter.com/bnhwalker/status/1471471698734206986

    The lib dems will walk it
    in sandals presumably.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,296
    Got my booster -> super efficient process, very impressive work from the vaccine team, waited just a few minutes on arriving.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    Late afternoon all :)

    The Christmas spirit starting to move in with an early finish as most local councils have already closed for Christmas - that one's for you @NerysHughes

    Amongst the blizzard of nonsense, the most interesting information seems to be the extent to which previous infection increases immunity. If I read @MaxPB's comments earlier, the people with most protection are those with three doses AND infection.

    Those with just three doses and no infection rank fourth.

    My only thought is for how long does immunity through infection last? Am I seriously to believe if you had Covid in April 2020 you are still enjoying a degree of immunity? Even those who had Delta early this year - are they still somehow enjoying some immunity?

    The corollary of this would seem to be the Government's actions last spring in preventing further transmission via restrictions (successful at the time of course) have been slightly counter productive because most people were able to avoid the virus completely and, through vaccination, millions have continued to escape the virus. That leaves a bigger potential pool especially those who have had one dose or no dose.

    Yeah, I was surprised last night that he rated prior infection so highly, it's why I thought people would find it interesting here. He didn't mention any timeframe, but did say the model was specific to an Alpha or Delta infection and severe symptoms for Omicron.

    I don't think so on the latter point of preventing transmission early on, it would simply have toppled healthcare services and left us all in a really bad place with people dying simply because the NHS wouldn't have been able to cope with everyone needing treatment at the same time. I still fully believe that the March 2020 first lockdown was necessary.

    On the group of people with one dose or no dose with no infection, yes, that's the big risk factor IMO, the two dose people will be fairly easy to convince to get a third one which will give them good enough immunity. We've both said it, there's just a real lack of urgency around getting people into the next step of vaccines, either their first or second dose. There's a lot of easy to capture people who have had just a single dose that could be convinced to get their second and a few harder to reach people who have had no vaccines that could be convinced by someone who speaks their own language or whatever to get jabbed. I don't think saying they can't go to football matches or nightclubs will convince a 78 year old Bangladeshi woman in Tower Hamlets that getting the vaccine is a good idea.
    More died in Pfizer's experimental group than in its control group. (But yes, it reduced the severity of COVID infections, even if more died of other conditions.)

    If she knew this, why would a Bangladeshi woman in Tower Hamlets want the mRNA injection?

    Her home country is poorer than the UK but has done rather well using cheap, generic drugs.
    🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄

    Weirdo.

    I go by data and try to ignore people pushing a narrative.

    Sorry that you're unaware of the TNI.
    Get back to flogging horse dewormer you cretin.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited December 2021

    Carnyx said:

    Just for a pleasant change off topic and I'm on the olives and toast and wine - the first real millipede with more than 1K legs.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/16/the-first-true-millipede-new-species-with-more-than-1000-legs-discovered-in-western-australia

    2020 and 2021 have made me utterly fearful of anything new, kill it with fire, just to be sure.
    Aw, don't be mean - giant millipedes make nice pets, very green too, just eat leftover salad or cabbage. Just don't pick the ones that secrete hydrogen cyanide (in liquid solution I believe) from their armpits or rather crotches, if I recall my lessons correctly. They have a lot of the latter.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PKatD810xg&t=1s (not the new species of gallyworm alas)


    https://blog.nature.org/science/2017/10/17/millipede-protects-itself-cyanide-yellow-spotted-bugs/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    This thread has relied once too often on ivermectin.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    Late afternoon all :)

    The Christmas spirit starting to move in with an early finish as most local councils have already closed for Christmas - that one's for you @NerysHughes

    Amongst the blizzard of nonsense, the most interesting information seems to be the extent to which previous infection increases immunity. If I read @MaxPB's comments earlier, the people with most protection are those with three doses AND infection.

    Those with just three doses and no infection rank fourth.

    My only thought is for how long does immunity through infection last? Am I seriously to believe if you had Covid in April 2020 you are still enjoying a degree of immunity? Even those who had Delta early this year - are they still somehow enjoying some immunity?

    The corollary of this would seem to be the Government's actions last spring in preventing further transmission via restrictions (successful at the time of course) have been slightly counter productive because most people were able to avoid the virus completely and, through vaccination, millions have continued to escape the virus. That leaves a bigger potential pool especially those who have had one dose or no dose.

    Yeah, I was surprised last night that he rated prior infection so highly, it's why I thought people would find it interesting here. He didn't mention any timeframe, but did say the model was specific to an Alpha or Delta infection and severe symptoms for Omicron.

    I don't think so on the latter point of preventing transmission early on, it would simply have toppled healthcare services and left us all in a really bad place with people dying simply because the NHS wouldn't have been able to cope with everyone needing treatment at the same time. I still fully believe that the March 2020 first lockdown was necessary.

    On the group of people with one dose or no dose with no infection, yes, that's the big risk factor IMO, the two dose people will be fairly easy to convince to get a third one which will give them good enough immunity. We've both said it, there's just a real lack of urgency around getting people into the next step of vaccines, either their first or second dose. There's a lot of easy to capture people who have had just a single dose that could be convinced to get their second and a few harder to reach people who have had no vaccines that could be convinced by someone who speaks their own language or whatever to get jabbed. I don't think saying they can't go to football matches or nightclubs will convince a 78 year old Bangladeshi woman in Tower Hamlets that getting the vaccine is a good idea.
    More died in Pfizer's experimental group than in its control group. (But yes, it reduced the severity of COVID infections, even if more died of other conditions.)

    If she knew this, why would a Bangladeshi woman in Tower Hamlets want the mRNA injection?

    Her home country is poorer than the UK but has done rather well using cheap, generic drugs.
    🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄

    Weirdo.

    I go by data and try to ignore people pushing a narrative.

    Sorry that you're unaware of the TNI.
    Why do you think actual scientists aren't "going by the data" or do you presume that almost everyone is trying to push a narrative?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    How's turnout looking in NS - any reports?

    Brisk
  • North Shropshire By-Election Live Blog:

    https://www.bordercountiesadvertizer.co.uk/news/19788472.live-blog-north-shropshire-by-election/

    Not much reportage so far, though some nice photos of a quaint polling place AND a cute dog.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Raab only 5'9 apparently. How tall is Javid ?

    We are governed by dwarves !

    Are you suggesting our political leadership is below average height?
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Just for a pleasant change off topic and I'm on the olives and toast and wine - the first real millipede with more than 1K legs.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/16/the-first-true-millipede-new-species-with-more-than-1000-legs-discovered-in-western-australia

    2020 and 2021 have made me utterly fearful of anything new, kill it with fire, just to be sure.
    Aw, don't be mean - giant millipedes make nice pets, very green too, just eat leftover salad or cabbage. Just don't pick the ones that secrete hydrogen cyanide (in liquid solution I believe) from their armpits or rather crotches, if I recall my lessons correctly. They have a lot of the latter.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PKatD810xg&t=1s (not the new species of gallyworm alas)


    https://blog.nature.org/science/2017/10/17/millipede-protects-itself-cyanide-yellow-spotted-bugs/
    I'm not keen on anything creepy crawly, snakes, rats, mice etc.

    I had to break up with a girl once because she had a snake.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Is the Starmer surge going to come to Boris' rescue?

    I wonder if the events of recent days, with Boris statement to the nation and Starmer having the chance to make his own has rather pushed the Lib Dems to one side. Whether omicron turns out to be of great significance it certainly worked as a by election strategy.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748


    Tim Spector claiming today that no severe cases of Omicron in the UK amongst people who have been vaccinated.

    As though anyone in their right mind (anonymous online loonies excepted) would make such a ridiculous assertion!

    Here's what he really said:
    He said his team had only examined about 1,000 Omicron cases so far, but that it appeared to produce a "fairly mild" illness.
    Prof Spector said they were seeing "fairly mild illness and nearly everyone has got better after about five days".
    However, he cautioned that "many of the people who are getting infections in London right now are on the younger side and we haven't got a lot of sick people who may be the ones who end up going to hospital".
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    Late afternoon all :)

    The Christmas spirit starting to move in with an early finish as most local councils have already closed for Christmas - that one's for you @NerysHughes

    Amongst the blizzard of nonsense, the most interesting information seems to be the extent to which previous infection increases immunity. If I read @MaxPB's comments earlier, the people with most protection are those with three doses AND infection.

    Those with just three doses and no infection rank fourth.

    My only thought is for how long does immunity through infection last? Am I seriously to believe if you had Covid in April 2020 you are still enjoying a degree of immunity? Even those who had Delta early this year - are they still somehow enjoying some immunity?

    The corollary of this would seem to be the Government's actions last spring in preventing further transmission via restrictions (successful at the time of course) have been slightly counter productive because most people were able to avoid the virus completely and, through vaccination, millions have continued to escape the virus. That leaves a bigger potential pool especially those who have had one dose or no dose.

    Yeah, I was surprised last night that he rated prior infection so highly, it's why I thought people would find it interesting here. He didn't mention any timeframe, but did say the model was specific to an Alpha or Delta infection and severe symptoms for Omicron.

    I don't think so on the latter point of preventing transmission early on, it would simply have toppled healthcare services and left us all in a really bad place with people dying simply because the NHS wouldn't have been able to cope with everyone needing treatment at the same time. I still fully believe that the March 2020 first lockdown was necessary.

    On the group of people with one dose or no dose with no infection, yes, that's the big risk factor IMO, the two dose people will be fairly easy to convince to get a third one which will give them good enough immunity. We've both said it, there's just a real lack of urgency around getting people into the next step of vaccines, either their first or second dose. There's a lot of easy to capture people who have had just a single dose that could be convinced to get their second and a few harder to reach people who have had no vaccines that could be convinced by someone who speaks their own language or whatever to get jabbed. I don't think saying they can't go to football matches or nightclubs will convince a 78 year old Bangladeshi woman in Tower Hamlets that getting the vaccine is a good idea.
    More died in Pfizer's experimental group than in its control group. (But yes, it reduced the severity of COVID infections, even if more died of other conditions.)

    If she knew this, why would a Bangladeshi woman in Tower Hamlets want the mRNA injection?

    Her home country is poorer than the UK but has done rather well using cheap, generic drugs.
    🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄

    Weirdo.

    I go by data and try to ignore people pushing a narrative.

    Sorry that you're unaware of the TNI.
    You always focus on the negatives.

    Ever since I've been jabbed my mobile signal has improved massively.

    Get 5G everywhere I go now.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    Scott_xP said:

    Count for the North Shropshire by-election will take place in Shrewsbury Sports Village, five miles outside the seat. Declaration anticipated to be between 2-5am.
    https://twitter.com/bnhwalker/status/1471471698734206986

    The lib dems will walk it
    Or cycle to the count.
  • Stocky said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    North Koreans have been banned from showing any sign of happiness for 11 days in order to commemorate the 10-year anniversary of the death of Kim Jong-il.

    The restrictions include an explicit ban on laughter and alcohol during the 11-day period of mourning. On the exact anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s death, December 17, North Koreans will even be banned from going grocery shopping.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/12/16/north-korea-bans-laughing-11-days-mourning-10th-anniversary/

    If you live in North Korea it is probably quite easy to avoid showing happiness at any time.

    As for grocery shopping, is there anything in the shops to buy?
    Did you get released yet from your hotel prison?
    Yup. Released 2.30 pm, thank you Stocks.

    It's changed my attitude towards government Covid measures. I used to be generally supportive but it is now clear to me that they are pointless unless strictly and carefully implemented.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Freedland: “Sleaze” is not the right label for the behaviour of Boris Johnson’s government, chiefly because that behaviour does not bear comparison with the scandals that felled the Major administration. Not because… today’s misconduct is not as bad but, on the contrary, because it is much, much worse.

    Hypocrisy is a theme once again, of course – the government breaking the rules it had imposed on everyone else. But begin with the mildest accusations against the prime minister – which, paradoxically, are also the ones that have cut through most sharply to the public. What’s significant is that they relate not to no-mark backbenchers or previously unknown junior ministers, as most of the 90s stories did, but to the man at the top.

    Back in the 1990s, there were no such questions asked about the PM himself: it was all about his subordinates. Indeed – and this is the second key difference between now and then – when his ministers were found to have broken the rules, Major threw the book at them, eventually setting up a new standards process that has endured to this day.

    Still, what puts the conduct of the current administration into an entirely different category – one ill-suited to so gentle a term as sleaze – relates not to the dodgy behaviour of individuals, but to the conduct of the government itself. When you look at that, you realise the word “sleaze” will not do – that it minimises the problem, that it puts what’s happening now on a par with a Tory minister sucking the toes of his actress lover while wearing full Chelsea strip.

    You look at that and you think: don’t call this sleaze, call it what it is – corruption. There’s so much of it, whether it’s Johnson using his public office to advance the business interests of his then lover Jennifer Arcuri, Owen Paterson taking money from Randox – who later won two fat contracts for Covid testing, worth a combined total of almost £480m, neither of which were advertised or open to competition – or ministers’ fondness for using WhatsApp or private emails, conveniently evading scrutiny.

    All this is so much more serious than the bonking stories of a generation ago, more serious than Hamilton and Aitken trousering a few grand or a night in the Ritz and then lying about it – Maugham says 90s sleaze is “quite sweet” by comparison; “it’s Famous Five does corruption” – and yet it struggles to break through.

    Even the Tories’ candidate in the North Shropshire byelection…when asked four times whether he regarded the prime minister as a man of “honesty and integrity”, could not say yes. So of course the outrage will not come from Downing Street, because the threat comes from Downing Street.

    The outrage will have to come from the public, the voters – and it begins by calling this menace to our democratic life by its name. Don’t call it sleaze. Call it corruption.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Selebian said:

    17 windows smashed in a vaccine centre in St Asaph

    A 58 year old male has been arrested

    I just cannot start to understand the mentality of these people

    There's a joke in there somewhere about Bill Gates and unintended side effects.

    Seriously though, that's shocking. Hope it doesn't disrupt the vaccinations too much.
    I must admit I did wonder if St Asaph was the patron saint of glaziers... ;)
    Road building.

    Tarmac is St As’s fault
  • NEW THREAD

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,624
    Scott_xP said:

    It's not often we plug our rivals, but there's plenty of flights from California back to the UK if you've got urgent business to attend to 👀 #comebacktohelpout https://twitter.com/Ryanair/status/1471465417709428750/photo/1

    It's as if Irish independence never happened...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    Late afternoon all :)

    The Christmas spirit starting to move in with an early finish as most local councils have already closed for Christmas - that one's for you @NerysHughes

    Amongst the blizzard of nonsense, the most interesting information seems to be the extent to which previous infection increases immunity. If I read @MaxPB's comments earlier, the people with most protection are those with three doses AND infection.

    Those with just three doses and no infection rank fourth.

    My only thought is for how long does immunity through infection last? Am I seriously to believe if you had Covid in April 2020 you are still enjoying a degree of immunity? Even those who had Delta early this year - are they still somehow enjoying some immunity?

    The corollary of this would seem to be the Government's actions last spring in preventing further transmission via restrictions (successful at the time of course) have been slightly counter productive because most people were able to avoid the virus completely and, through vaccination, millions have continued to escape the virus. That leaves a bigger potential pool especially those who have had one dose or no dose.

    Yeah, I was surprised last night that he rated prior infection so highly, it's why I thought people would find it interesting here. He didn't mention any timeframe, but did say the model was specific to an Alpha or Delta infection and severe symptoms for Omicron.

    I don't think so on the latter point of preventing transmission early on, it would simply have toppled healthcare services and left us all in a really bad place with people dying simply because the NHS wouldn't have been able to cope with everyone needing treatment at the same time. I still fully believe that the March 2020 first lockdown was necessary.

    On the group of people with one dose or no dose with no infection, yes, that's the big risk factor IMO, the two dose people will be fairly easy to convince to get a third one which will give them good enough immunity. We've both said it, there's just a real lack of urgency around getting people into the next step of vaccines, either their first or second dose. There's a lot of easy to capture people who have had just a single dose that could be convinced to get their second and a few harder to reach people who have had no vaccines that could be convinced by someone who speaks their own language or whatever to get jabbed. I don't think saying they can't go to football matches or nightclubs will convince a 78 year old Bangladeshi woman in Tower Hamlets that getting the vaccine is a good idea.
    More died in Pfizer's experimental group than in its control group. (But yes, it reduced the severity of COVID infections, even if more died of other conditions.)

    If she knew this, why would a Bangladeshi woman in Tower Hamlets want the mRNA injection?

    Her home country is poorer than the UK but has done rather well using cheap, generic drugs.
    🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄

    Weirdo.

    I go by data and try to ignore people pushing a narrative.

    Sorry that you're unaware of the TNI.
    You always focus on the negatives.

    Ever since I've been jabbed my mobile signal has improved massively.

    Get 5G everywhere I go now.
    The mobile signal on the M5 is dire. I'm sure that's why I did so badly on the work Christmas zoom quiz (49th out of 51, behind someone who left halfway through).
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1471560190805872642

    Remember Sajid Javid predicting a million cases a day recently? Public Health England 2.0 have quietly withdrawn the model this was based on, citing “behaviour change”.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Tories seemed to have settled around 32% but that was before Sunak was found to be living it up on a Californian beach while interest rates went up for only the third time in ten years.

    Is anyone in government interested in their day job?
    He was doing his day job discussing IT investment into the UK

    Family holiday!
This discussion has been closed.