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CON ahead in the betting on the eve of North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,599
edited December 2021 in General
imageCON ahead in the betting on the eve of North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

Based on almost all the the by-election betting in the past year the betting markets have not been good prediction tools. These arewise words from Paul of the Poiticalgambler blog

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 30,806
    First as I suspect the Tories will be as Lib Dems and Labour split the non-tory vote.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,602
    Never let a good variant go to waste.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Third like the reich
  • eekeek Posts: 30,806
    Also nice to see Robert Peston exclusively revealing news that the Daily Mirror annouced over 2 hours ago.

    Heather Hallett will be leading the Covid Public Inquiry.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,018
    I'm green to pennies. I really have no insight into who will vote tomorrow, and how.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,202
    edited December 2021
    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,700
    78k headline cases.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    78,610 cases......

    And the real figures will be a lot more than that...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,202
    Denmark, which has the highest number of confirmed Omicron cases, reports 8,773 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,602
    Deaths down, number of people in hospital down (with no surge in London either).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    Comres finds 63% of voters want to close nightclubs due to Omicron and 64% stop large events.
    https://comresglobal.com/polls/lockdown-snap-poll-december-2021/
    A lower 44% support closing pubs and restaurants, 35% opposed but 2019 Conservative voters are opposed to closing pubs and restaurants by 42% to 39%.
    https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/38028217-Snap-Poll-14th-December_14.12-Final-Tables.xlsx
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,575
    78,000 CASES

    OMICRON THE DOESN’T-DISAPPOINT
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,752
    HYUFD said:

    Comres finds 63% of voters want to close nightclubs due to Omicron and 64% stop large events.
    https://comresglobal.com/polls/lockdown-snap-poll-december-2021/
    A lower 44% support closing pubs and restaurants, 35% opposed but 2019 Conservative voters are opposed to closing pubs and restaurants by 42% to 39%.
    https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/38028217-Snap-Poll-14th-December_14.12-Final-Tables.xlsx

    63% of voters of boring fun sponges confirmed
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,378
    That London curve will give us a good gauge on hospitalisations in 7-10 days.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    edited December 2021
    North Shropshire is now all about the Labour vote, not the LD or Tory vote. The LD vote probably around 35%, the Tory vote around 40%.

    If Labour's vote is 15% or more the Tories should hold on, if the Labour vote is under 10% the LDs should win due to large Labour tactical voting for the LDs. If it is 10-15% it will be neck and neck
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Study these names:

    @Anabobazina
    @TimS
    @FrankBooth
    @Stocky
    @williamglenn
    @Gardenwalker

    Did you see many rightwingers in that lot?

    Also, the most dovish areas – big cities – are leftwing and (at least until very recently) buzzing. Which rather gives the lie to the left/right theory.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,382
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    78,610 cases....

    ...of Carlsberg to Downing Street for Christmas Party season 2020.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited December 2021
    Booster numbers up 67% in a week to 656,711.

    Edit: pretty sure that is the second highest total vaccinations given out, only surpassed by a single day of the original campaign.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    jonny83 said:

    Anabobazina said:

    maaarsh said:

    TimS said:

    More very encouraging SA news.

    https://twitter.com/tomtom_m/status/1471137200121257994?s=20

    Either South Africa is so different that what happens there can't read across to here, or we may be OK.

    Excess death in the Omicron epicentre below the South Africa average!
    Indeed. Excellent thread. No doubt it will be summarily dismissed by the pompous colonial attitudes on PB.
    Happy for SA if it's impact is lower than thought and they get through it relatively well compared to what it could have been that's great news.

    Hope the same applies for us but we are a much different country and as Covid has shown some countries suffer more than others.

    IMO the mistake that is being made is making the assumption that what happens in another country will happen here. There is no guarantee of that whatsoever with Covid.

    Ultimately let's wait and see, fingers crossed and all that.
    Again though – and this is routinely misunderstood for some reason – the South African studies are comparing SA (Omicron) with SA (Delta/Wuhan), they are not comparing SA (Omicron) with some far-flung foreign land with entirely different demographics.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,754
    jonny83 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    78,610 cases......

    And the real figures will be a lot more than that...
    Wow... That's 78k people infected from a few days ago. So actual number infected today, could easily be after one doubling of that (potentially more), plus we probably still aren't catching all cases with testing.

    I think 300k infected today is plausible.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    eek said:

    Also nice to see Robert Peston exclusively revealing news that the Daily Mirror annouced over 2 hours ago.

    Heather Hallett will be leading the Covid Public Inquiry.

    A good choice.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,700
    London wide headline: 19.3 k cases added

    London wide Week on week (incomplete 13/12 Vs 6/12) - 105% increase (vs 88% seen yesterday)
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,562
    MaxPB said:

    That London curve will give us a good gauge on hospitalisations in 7-10 days.

    The petri dish of England...

    (fingers crossed for a week or so)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,081
    edited December 2021
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,136
    Anabobazina said:

    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Study these names:

    @Anabobazina
    @TimS
    @FrankBooth
    @Stocky
    @williamglenn
    @Gardenwalker

    Did you see many rightwingers in that lot?

    Also, the most dovish areas – big cities – are leftwing and (at least until very recently) buzzing. Which rather gives the lie to the left/right theory.
    Yep fair enough I suppose my theory is garbage.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,393
    Coronavirus cases hit record level at 78,610 positives today
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1471150766698213385
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,275
    edited December 2021
    78,610 165 deaths 774 admissions
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,382
    HYUFD said:

    North Shropshire is now all about the Labour vote, not the LD or Tory vote. The LD vote probably around 35%, the Tory vote around 40%.

    If Labour's vote is 15% or more the Tories should hold on, if the Labour vote is under 10% the LDs should win due to large Labour tactical voting for the LDs. If it is 10-15% it will be neck and neck

    I may be proven wrong, but it was a silly seat for Labour to tacitly shy away from. Although I suppose, events..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,202
    Chris said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    Why are you asking me?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    Chris said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    Living with Covid.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,081
    Mortimer said:

    Chris said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    Living with Covid.
    Dying.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,341
    TOPPING said:

    Anabobazina said:

    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Study these names:

    @Anabobazina
    @TimS
    @FrankBooth
    @Stocky
    @williamglenn
    @Gardenwalker

    Did you see many rightwingers in that lot?

    Also, the most dovish areas – big cities – are leftwing and (at least until very recently) buzzing. Which rather gives the lie to the left/right theory.
    Yep fair enough I suppose my theory is garbage.
    It's not garbage, it's just half the story. True what you said but there are many on the right of the spectrum - more extreme conservatives - who equally cheerlead restrictions. It is the liberals in the middle who are feeling the pinch from both sides, especially as you progress along the liberal spectrum towards libertarianism.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,081
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Chris said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    Why are you asking me?
    Because your only reaction seemed to be something about what "the usual suspects" would say.

    What do you say?
  • eekeek Posts: 30,806
    edited December 2021
    MaxPB said:

    That London curve will give us a good gauge on hospitalisations in 7-10 days.

    Still got to wait 7-10 days before we have a usable figure however.

    Reality is - it's now too late to do anything about this all we can do is hope that it's as mild as some people claim it is.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    What about Norway. Aren’t they a week before us, or something?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,341
    @Anabobazina

    You could add Cookie, Black Rook and Darkage to your list - plus others I'm sure.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,705
    Just got boosted, and a proper vaccine this time not that Oxford rubbish. A very well run operation in SE14. Let's hope that what with a recent Covid infection and three doses of the vaccine I should be okay.
    Incidentally, I am a libertarian socialist remainer and am kind of agnostic on further measures - let's be led by the best available scientific evidence. Right now that evidence says Omicron is definitely more contagious and very probably less virulent - put those together and it looks like we may not need to put any more measures in place but we should be ready to act if necessary. And I certainly won't take any lessons in "freedom" from Tory MPs voting through the "strip brown people of their passports" bill.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,078
    Christopher Snowdon
    @cjsnowdon
    ·
    34m
    Is it possible that there is something about Omicron which makes it target millennials? Sounds too good to be true but worth investigating.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,341
    Hospitalisation figures good again.

    A matter of time before someone says "casedemic".
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,562
    TOPPING said:

    Anabobazina said:

    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Study these names:

    @Anabobazina
    @TimS
    @FrankBooth
    @Stocky
    @williamglenn
    @Gardenwalker

    Did you see many rightwingers in that lot?

    Also, the most dovish areas – big cities – are leftwing and (at least until very recently) buzzing. Which rather gives the lie to the left/right theory.
    Yep fair enough I suppose my theory is garbage.
    All the best hypotheses are falsifiable. According to Popper*, you just advanced science :wink:

    (Yep, I'm wildly paraphrasing/over simplifying here, don't jump on me, philosophers)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,202
    rottenborough said:

    Christopher Snowdon
    @cjsnowdon
    ·
    34m
    Is it possible that there is something about Omicron which makes it target millennials? Sounds too good to be true but worth investigating.

    The fact they go to bars and nightclubs perhaps...and this thing spreads like crazy in such environments.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,378
    Gardenwalker said:

    What about Norway. Aren’t they a week before us, or something?

    They're also in a lockdown of sorts.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,705
    rottenborough said:

    Christopher Snowdon
    @cjsnowdon
    ·
    34m
    Is it possible that there is something about Omicron which makes it target millennials? Sounds too good to be true but worth investigating.

    Avocado toast revealed to be a vector?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,700
    Zone 1 London:

    incomplete 13/12: 6272 cases
    6/12: 2289 cases

    Week on week growth: 174% growth (was 138% yesterday).
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    I'm planning on changing my sleep pattern so I can catch tomorrows thread :popcorn:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,839
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    I'm green to pennies. I really have no insight into who will vote tomorrow, and how.

    My money is on the "who" being 40-42% of the electoral roll of North Shropshire, and the "how" being with a short pencil.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,136
    Chris said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    what would you do Chris?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,690
    Selebian said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anabobazina said:

    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Study these names:

    @Anabobazina
    @TimS
    @FrankBooth
    @Stocky
    @williamglenn
    @Gardenwalker

    Did you see many rightwingers in that lot?

    Also, the most dovish areas – big cities – are leftwing and (at least until very recently) buzzing. Which rather gives the lie to the left/right theory.
    Yep fair enough I suppose my theory is garbage.
    All the best hypotheses are falsifiable. According to Popper*, you just advanced science :wink:

    (Yep, I'm wildly paraphrasing/over simplifying here, don't jump on me, philosophers)
    Very much to @TOPPING 's credit - other people on PB could learn from his/her example.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,078
    Got a sick feeling in my stomach. Covid special at 5pm.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,018
    JBriskin3 said:

    I'm planning on changing my sleep pattern so I can catch tomorrows thread :popcorn:

    The test match starts at 4am.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,673
    I had lumped on the LibDems, but decided I've zero insight into the result, so greened out a few days ago.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,081
    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    what would you do Chris?
    I would do what the scientific advisers no doubt advised, and take measures to try to prevent the NHS from collapsing and many people dying without any medical care.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,078
    BNO Newsroom
    @BNODesk
    ·
    23m
    Denmark, which has the highest number of confirmed Omicron cases, reports 8,773 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    One point which hasn't had enough attention (although it was raised today on WATO) is that the massive number of cases which we are going to get over the next three weeks is itself going to impact not only on the NHS in terms of treatments, but also on the delivery of booster jabs, simply because of staff being off sick or isolating. Of course we are also going to be seeing big disruptions of other services for the same reason.

    Lockdowns and other mitigation methods are frankly pretty irrelevant by this point; economic and other activity is going to be hugely disrupted whatever the government does, even if the hospitalisation figures turn out to be manageable.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,839
    MaxPB said:

    That London curve will give us a good gauge on hospitalisations in 7-10 days.

    Exactly: if the number of people in hospital with Covid in London doesn't start moving sharply up, we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

    However...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anabobazina said:

    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Study these names:

    @Anabobazina
    @TimS
    @FrankBooth
    @Stocky
    @williamglenn
    @Gardenwalker

    Did you see many rightwingers in that lot?

    Also, the most dovish areas – big cities – are leftwing and (at least until very recently) buzzing. Which rather gives the lie to the left/right theory.
    Yep fair enough I suppose my theory is garbage.
    It's not garbage, it's just half the story. True what you said but there are many on the right of the spectrum - more extreme conservatives - who equally cheerlead restrictions. It is the liberals in the middle who are feeling the pinch from both sides, especially as you progress along the liberal spectrum towards libertarianism.
    Overall though 52% of 2019 Labour voters want to close pubs and restaurants due to Omicron compared to only 39% of 2019 Conservative voters who want to close pubs and restaurants and 43% of 2019 LD voters who want to close them
    https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/38028217-Snap-Poll-14th-December_14.12-Final-Tables.xlsx
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,575
    Well well well


    ‘Wuhan lab leak 'now the most likely origin of Covid', MPs told
    Dr Alina Chan says there is also a risk that Covid-19 is an engineered virus
    By
    Sarah Knapton,
    SCIENCE EDITOR
    15 December 2021 • 12:46pm


    A laboratory leak is now the more likely origin of Covid, MPs have heard, because after two years of searching an animal host has never been found.’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/15/wuhan-lab-leak-now-likely-origin-covid-mps-told/
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    Anabobazina said:

    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Study these names:

    @Anabobazina
    @TimS
    @FrankBooth
    @Stocky
    @williamglenn
    @Gardenwalker

    Did you see many rightwingers in that lot?

    Also, the most dovish areas – big cities – are leftwing and (at least until very recently) buzzing. Which rather gives the lie to the left/right theory.
    Why do we have to lockdown and not South Africa?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,136
    And as mentioned on the other thread there's no doubt cases are skyrocketing but we just ran out of LFT tests this week ffs that surely also indicates larger amounts of testing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,078
    Leon said:

    Well well well


    ‘Wuhan lab leak 'now the most likely origin of Covid', MPs told
    Dr Alina Chan says there is also a risk that Covid-19 is an engineered virus
    By
    Sarah Knapton,
    SCIENCE EDITOR
    15 December 2021 • 12:46pm


    A laboratory leak is now the more likely origin of Covid, MPs have heard, because after two years of searching an animal host has never been found.’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/15/wuhan-lab-leak-now-likely-origin-covid-mps-told/

    I am shocked...
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    edited December 2021
    No, it's not!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,136
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anabobazina said:

    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Study these names:

    @Anabobazina
    @TimS
    @FrankBooth
    @Stocky
    @williamglenn
    @Gardenwalker

    Did you see many rightwingers in that lot?

    Also, the most dovish areas – big cities – are leftwing and (at least until very recently) buzzing. Which rather gives the lie to the left/right theory.
    Yep fair enough I suppose my theory is garbage.
    All the best hypotheses are falsifiable. According to Popper*, you just advanced science :wink:

    (Yep, I'm wildly paraphrasing/over simplifying here, don't jump on me, philosophers)
    Very much to @TOPPING 's credit - other people on PB could learn from his/her example.
    Happy to be wrong all day every day...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,839
    HYUFD said:

    North Shropshire is now all about the Labour vote, not the LD or Tory vote. The LD vote probably around 35%, the Tory vote around 40%.

    If Labour's vote is 15% or more the Tories should hold on, if the Labour vote is under 10% the LDs should win due to large Labour tactical voting for the LDs. If it is 10-15% it will be neck and neck

    I think this is probably spot on.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,202
    edited December 2021
    NEW: UK reports 4,671 new Omicron cases, raising total to 10,017

    Obviously its pointless stat in terms of raw numbers, but does give indication of doubling rate.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,382
    JBriskin3 said:

    I'm planning on changing my sleep pattern so I can catch tomorrows thread :popcorn:

    Don't bother, it's a Conservative win. Quite possibly with Cons. as low as 40%.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    That London curve will give us a good gauge on hospitalisations in 7-10 days.

    Still got to wait 7-10 days before we have a usable figure however.

    Reality is - it's now too late to do anything about this all we can do is hope that it's as mild as some people claim it is.
    From the last thread, compare and contrast. I think she might know the difference:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10306211/DR-ANGELIQUE-COETZEE-alerted-wider-world-Omicron-believe-Britain-overreacting.html

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-south-africas-healthcare-workers-struggle-under-pressure-of-third-wave-12363905
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,602
    Gauteng cases down 30% on last week. So deaths will be falling in 3 weeks and appear to have no chance of getting anywhere near previous wave.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,136
    edited December 2021
    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    78,610 cases......I presume 100k will be breeched by end of the week.

    The usual suspects will be ramping up the pressure to cancel Christmas.

    Well, what do you think?

    No further restrictions needed? Everything going fine?
    what would you do Chris?
    I would do what the scientific advisers no doubt advised, and take measures to try to prevent the NHS from collapsing and many people dying without any medical care.
    Sounds very reasonable. What exactly is that plan.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,202
    We have cross over...

    Most cases in London with swabs taken on 11 December were caused by Omicron.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    I'm planning on changing my sleep pattern so I can catch tomorrows thread :popcorn:

    The test match starts at 4am.
    Actually I was thinking about a cricket bet this week.

    I've got yet another free 5 quid Paddy Power voucher from the Daily Star; only this time I can bet on any sport.

    England to win the Ashes anyone?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    We have crossover, in London:

    https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1471152011747987460
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,660
    rottenborough said:

    Got a sick feeling in my stomach. Covid special at 5pm.

    It won't be more restrictions - we've only just had the vote, and anything further has to come to the house. It may be a pep talk - get your booster, think about your own risks etc.

    The way omicron is infecting, its not long to wait to find out whether we are in the shit or not. I'm expecting a jump in hospitalisation for sure, but nothing like Jan 2021, and ultimately boosters to all willing by Jan 10th.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,992
    Spoke to three people on work calls this week so far who say “yeah I have covid right now, feel alright. Scratchy throat. Will have some time off next week anyway”.

    I dare say none will be doing PCRs after their positive flow tests. One guy reckoned 21/25 at a party he went to have tested positive.

    Which raises an interesting question: when will omnicron peak in London?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    We have cross over...

    Most cases in London with swabs taken on 11 December were caused by Omicron.

    If that was the 11 December, presume it is close to 100% by now.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,754
    edited December 2021
    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    That London curve will give us a good gauge on hospitalisations in 7-10 days.

    The petri dish of England...

    (fingers crossed for a week or so)
    Numbers in hospital up 21% in London vs. last week... that doesn't seem good.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,081
    TOPPING said:

    And as mentioned on the other thread there's no doubt cases are skyrocketing but we just ran out of LFT tests this week ffs that surely also indicates larger amounts of testing.

    You don't believe the growth rate is real?

    If you did, would it concern you at all? Could you put it together with a way in which the hospitals could possibly cope with this?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,378
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    That London curve will give us a good gauge on hospitalisations in 7-10 days.

    Exactly: if the number of people in hospital with Covid in London doesn't start moving sharply up, we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

    However...
    Even if it does, I'm not sure how it's avoidable. If we're going to experience Omicron it's probably better to have a short and sharp snap that 6 months of lockdown.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    No, it's not!

    Even if only on 30% nationally the Conservatives would still get 42% in North Shropshire on UNS tomorrow.

    So again it all depends on the extent of Labour tactical voting for the LDs
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,202
    moonshine said:

    Spoke to three people on work calls this week so far who say “yeah I have covid right now, feel alright. Scratchy throat. Will have some time off next week anyway”.

    I dare say none will be doing PCRs after their positive flow tests. One guy reckoned 21/25 at a party he went to have tested positive.

    Which raises an interesting question: when will omnicron peak in London?

    Omicron seems to love a good party....more than the workers at #10.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,992
    Leon said:

    Well well well


    ‘Wuhan lab leak 'now the most likely origin of Covid', MPs told
    Dr Alina Chan says there is also a risk that Covid-19 is an engineered virus
    By
    Sarah Knapton,
    SCIENCE EDITOR
    15 December 2021 • 12:46pm


    A laboratory leak is now the more likely origin of Covid, MPs have heard, because after two years of searching an animal host has never been found.’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/15/wuhan-lab-leak-now-likely-origin-covid-mps-told/

    Lol file this under No Shit Sherlock. But it’s one of the big stories going on that people don’t want to hear so ignore it.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,081
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    That London curve will give us a good gauge on hospitalisations in 7-10 days.

    Exactly: if the number of people in hospital with Covid in London doesn't start moving sharply up, we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

    However...
    Even if it does, I'm not sure how it's avoidable. If we're going to experience Omicron it's probably better to have a short and sharp snap that 6 months of lockdown.
    How many deaths do you estimate this "short and sharp snap" would involve?

    Or do you think it's better regardless of how many people would die?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    HYUFD said:

    North Shropshire is now all about the Labour vote, not the LD or Tory vote. The LD vote probably around 35%, the Tory vote around 40%.

    If Labour's vote is 15% or more the Tories should hold on, if the Labour vote is under 10% the LDs should win due to large Labour tactical voting for the LDs. If it is 10-15% it will be neck and neck

    I am one who liked this post Aitch, because it is spot on.

    You didn’t actually say what you think would happen though. Is your mind the same place as mine - why would Labour vote be anywhere close 10% when they can walk around all week with a big grin they gave boris a bloody nose?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,839
    ChrisfromParis said:

    O/T France 2 new polls - Harris INteractive and Opinion Way

    Harris interactive (fieldwork 10 to 13 December - changes from last week)
    Macron 24 (+1)
    Pecresse 17 (+3)
    Le Pen 16 (-2)
    Zemmour 15 (+1)
    Melenchon 11 (=)
    Jadot 7 (=)
    Hidalgo 4 (-1)
    All others 6 (-2)

    2nd round Macron 51(-2) / Pecresse 49(+2)
    other scenarios tested: Macron 56/Le Pen 44 and Macron 62/Zemmour 38

    OpinionWay (fieldwork 8-9/12, changes from mid-november)
    Macron 25 (+1)
    Pecresse 17 (+6)
    Le Pen 16 (-4)
    Zemmour 12 (=)
    Melenchon 8 (-1)
    Jadot 8 (=)
    Hidalgo 5 (-1)
    All others 9 (-1)

    No 2nd round question.

    The big event today is Macron's 2 hours-long taped interview that will be in prime-time on the biggest TV channel. Other candidates are furious and denounce what they see as unfairly occupying tv space (obviously they will not get the same opportunity). Maronists counter that the president is not yet a candidate and will just discuss his accomplishments as president without campaigning...
    The discussions regarding a potential left-wing primary are getting nowhere. Thus some are pushing for other candidates to come in the race such as Christiane Taubira (former Justice Minister under Hollande, famous for giving her name to the gay-marriage law and treated as an icon by the left-wing press as a woman from french Guyana). Opinion Way included her in theit poll and she got 2%.

    I think the French Presidential election could be surprisingly entertaining.

    From a "good for Britain" point of view, it's not clear that any of the leading candidates are great. Macron loves a contrived crisis. Pecresse accused the EU of being soft on Britain. Le Pen is ultimately statist. And Zemmour thinks that the D Day landings were an Anglo Saxon invasion of France.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    edited December 2021
    Mexicanpete said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    I'm planning on changing my sleep pattern so I can catch tomorrows thread :popcorn:

    Don't bother, it's a Conservative win. Quite possibly with Cons. as low as 40%.
    Perhaps, gives me a chance to mix things up a bit though. I do have a bit of a repetitive routine at the moment.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,018
    rottenborough said:

    Got a sick feeling in my stomach. Covid special at 5pm.

    One man's press conference is another Prime Minister's election broadcast the day before North Shropshire votes.

    That he is doing it this way does rather confirm that last week's gifting a free broadcast to Keir Starmer was not intended. And also that the Commons Speaker can whistle for it.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,754
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    That London curve will give us a good gauge on hospitalisations in 7-10 days.

    Exactly: if the number of people in hospital with Covid in London doesn't start moving sharply up, we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

    However...
    It's already moving up -> 21% growth vs last week.
    The admissions numbers (although not up to date) also showing a lot of growth (169 for 13th vs 111 for 6th Dec).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,839
    edited December 2021
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    That London curve will give us a good gauge on hospitalisations in 7-10 days.

    Exactly: if the number of people in hospital with Covid in London doesn't start moving sharply up, we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

    However...
    Even if it does, I'm not sure how it's avoidable. If we're going to experience Omicron it's probably better to have a short and sharp snap that 6 months of lockdown.
    Avoidable or not, it would be extremely unpleasant if it were to hammer us over Christmas.

    And if it does hit the UK hard, crushing hospital capacity, then we will see de facto lockdowns anyway, irrespective of government diktat.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,081
    moonshine said:

    Spoke to three people on work calls this week so far who say “yeah I have covid right now, feel alright. Scratchy throat. Will have some time off next week anyway”.

    You do understand that even without vaccination 99% survive COVID-19? You do realise how meaningless "spoke to three people and they were OK" is?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,602
    moonshine said:

    Spoke to three people on work calls this week so far who say “yeah I have covid right now, feel alright. Scratchy throat. Will have some time off next week anyway”.

    I dare say none will be doing PCRs after their positive flow tests. One guy reckoned 21/25 at a party he went to have tested positive.

    Which raises an interesting question: when will omnicron peak in London?

    Gauteng has peaked already. We'll clearly fall at xmas when people stop bothering with so many tests and then it'll be interesting to see if it can kick back up to the old heights after that.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,992
    Chris said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    That London curve will give us a good gauge on hospitalisations in 7-10 days.

    Exactly: if the number of people in hospital with Covid in London doesn't start moving sharply up, we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

    However...
    Even if it does, I'm not sure how it's avoidable. If we're going to experience Omicron it's probably better to have a short and sharp snap that 6 months of lockdown.
    How many deaths do you estimate this "short and sharp snap" would involve?

    Or do you think it's better regardless of how many people would die?
    Children believe that their parents can always make everything ok and will always look after them. When those children grow up, some believe the same about God, others believe the same about government.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    moonshine said:

    Spoke to three people on work calls this week so far who say “yeah I have covid right now, feel alright. Scratchy throat. Will have some time off next week anyway”.

    I dare say none will be doing PCRs after their positive flow tests. One guy reckoned 21/25 at a party he went to have tested positive.

    Which raises an interesting question: when will omnicron peak in London?

    I am hearing this more and more too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    edited December 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    ChrisfromParis said:

    O/T France 2 new polls - Harris INteractive and Opinion Way

    Harris interactive (fieldwork 10 to 13 December - changes from last week)
    Macron 24 (+1)
    Pecresse 17 (+3)
    Le Pen 16 (-2)
    Zemmour 15 (+1)
    Melenchon 11 (=)
    Jadot 7 (=)
    Hidalgo 4 (-1)
    All others 6 (-2)

    2nd round Macron 51(-2) / Pecresse 49(+2)
    other scenarios tested: Macron 56/Le Pen 44 and Macron 62/Zemmour 38

    OpinionWay (fieldwork 8-9/12, changes from mid-november)
    Macron 25 (+1)
    Pecresse 17 (+6)
    Le Pen 16 (-4)
    Zemmour 12 (=)
    Melenchon 8 (-1)
    Jadot 8 (=)
    Hidalgo 5 (-1)
    All others 9 (-1)

    No 2nd round question.

    The big event today is Macron's 2 hours-long taped interview that will be in prime-time on the biggest TV channel. Other candidates are furious and denounce what they see as unfairly occupying tv space (obviously they will not get the same opportunity). Maronists counter that the president is not yet a candidate and will just discuss his accomplishments as president without campaigning...
    The discussions regarding a potential left-wing primary are getting nowhere. Thus some are pushing for other candidates to come in the race such as Christiane Taubira (former Justice Minister under Hollande, famous for giving her name to the gay-marriage law and treated as an icon by the left-wing press as a woman from french Guyana). Opinion Way included her in theit poll and she got 2%.

    I think the French Presidential election could be surprisingly entertaining.

    From a "good for Britain" point of view, it's not clear that any of the leading candidates are great. Macron loves a contrived crisis. Pecresse accused the EU of being soft on Britain. Le Pen is ultimately statist. And Zemmour thinks that the D Day landings were an Anglo Saxon invasion of France.
    We have a trade deal with the EU now though and France has never been our closest ally anyway, indeed it is probably our least close ally of any G7 nation.

    Pecresse is probably closest to Boris ideologically all things being equal, except on the EU where Zemmour is probably closer to him (albeit otherwise a French nationalist). Le Pen had some things in common with Boris in terms of appealing to the Redwall type voter but maybe less so now
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,202
    edited December 2021
    What do we reckon Boris will be mumbling at 5pm.....no new restrictions by law, but use common sense, rule of 5, I mean 6, 26, not law, but take it from me, I will be sticking to it, well no I won't, but you should.....

    While Witty says here are the numbers, by the way this plan isn't mine...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,368
    Mexicanpete said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    I'm planning on changing my sleep pattern so I can catch tomorrows thread :popcorn:

    Don't bother, it's a Conservative win. Quite possibly with Cons. as low as 40%.
    Question to which we don't know the answer is how many people have voted already. I suspect that, given that people aren't that keen on mixing, the postal votes could be quite high.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What do we reckon Boris will be mumbling at 5pm.....no new restrictions by law, but use common sense, rule of 5, I mean 6, 26, not law, but take it from me, I will be sticking to it, well no I won't, but you should.....

    While Witty says here are the numbers, by the way this plan isn't mine...

    LOL! I think you've probably nailed it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,690
    edited December 2021
    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anabobazina said:

    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Study these names:

    @Anabobazina
    @TimS
    @FrankBooth
    @Stocky
    @williamglenn
    @Gardenwalker

    Did you see many rightwingers in that lot?

    Also, the most dovish areas – big cities – are leftwing and (at least until very recently) buzzing. Which rather gives the lie to the left/right theory.
    Yep fair enough I suppose my theory is garbage.
    All the best hypotheses are falsifiable. According to Popper*, you just advanced science :wink:

    (Yep, I'm wildly paraphrasing/over simplifying here, don't jump on me, philosophers)
    Very much to @TOPPING 's credit - other people on PB could learn from his/her example.
    Happy to be wrong all day every day...
    Not for nothing that Popper's classic book is called 'Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge'.

    However, that doesn't mean that scientists can't develop their ideas any way they like, such as on PB, and Feyerabend would approve. So long as they are formally testable.

    Though it is VERY frowned on to change the terms of one's hypothesis (e.g. changing the sample population, or one's definitions) after doing the experiment and finding that the data don't support it. Politely called fiddling, or, on PB. moving the goalposts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    edited December 2021
    MoonRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    North Shropshire is now all about the Labour vote, not the LD or Tory vote. The LD vote probably around 35%, the Tory vote around 40%.

    If Labour's vote is 15% or more the Tories should hold on, if the Labour vote is under 10% the LDs should win due to large Labour tactical voting for the LDs. If it is 10-15% it will be neck and neck

    I am one who liked this post Aitch, because it is spot on.

    You didn’t actually say what you think would happen though. Is your mind the same place as mine - why would Labour vote be anywhere close 10% when they can walk around all week with a big grin they gave boris a bloody nose?
    As some Labour voters there are old school Corbynite socialists for whom the LDs are as bad as the Tories
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,575
    ‘CDC Director Rochelle Walensky says Omicron appears to have a doubling time of two days.‘

    Just incredible. The virality of OMICRON THE IRRESISTIBLE.

    At the moment Omicron represents about 3% of cases in the USA. But at this pace it will be the dominant American strain by Christmas Day and nearly all cases before New Year.

    Question for viro-historians, has humanity ever encountered a bug like this before? Something so blisteringly transmissible? It renders lockdowns near irrelevant, for good or ill
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,839
    Chris said:

    moonshine said:

    Spoke to three people on work calls this week so far who say “yeah I have covid right now, feel alright. Scratchy throat. Will have some time off next week anyway”.

    You do understand that even without vaccination 99% survive COVID-19? You do realise how meaningless "spoke to three people and they were OK" is?
    "even without vaccination 99% survive COVID-19"

    Is that true? There are a fair number of countries where more than 1% of people have died of Covid, and they certainly didn't get 100% of people infected.
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