What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
Did you see his remote interview on Newsnight last night (also featured @Tissue_Price btw)? Streeting, like all MPs and, for that matter, anyone else who wants to be taken seriously, needs to spend a few quid on a decent microphone and webcam, possibly even a light. I'm surprised the parties aren't on to this.
LOL. I spent so much time doing just this for executives at the start of the pandemic.
Don’t use the camera, and especially not the microphone, on your laptop for web calls, especially not if they’re televised and being compared to a professional studio setup. And lights, dont forget the lights.
Didn’t the Speaker give everyone a WFH allowance when Parliament started sitting remotely? £500 should be enough for something decent enough, and you can do a basic podcast studio for £1k or so in hardware.
If the LDs win North Shropshire then Boris will likely face a VONC in the next few weeks, which he should still survive. Though judging by last night's vote over a 1/3 of Tory MPs would vote against him.
Otherwise he needs the booster programme to have proved a success by mid January next year and to have avoided another lockdown
Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.
So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
That's going to hit people more, indeed.
As this excellent article from The Economist a while back put it, its all about cars and houses. The Red Wall is full of houses with 2 cars each, its not train sets. The mantra for keeping it needs to be cars and houses, cars and houses, cars and houses. Deal with those and you've got it.
Not sure that Wazza counts as the red wall. We know your personal views on developers building houses everywhere with no impediment. But red wall voters tend to not want that. So what you advocate is the opposite of what they will vote for. Labour are seen as the party of stupid planning applications, the Tories as the ones who oppose them and defend their communities.
You're turning into @HYUFD - "pull up the drawbridge, I own my home, so screw everyone else." You'll be banging on about the evils of inheritance tax and the importance of inheritances next.
The point is that if you own your own home and own your own transport then that is the making of a Conservative voter.
Conservative voters might say they don't want more houses built as they want to protect their house prices, but then if that means their neighbours have no choice but to live in privately rented accommodation then their neighbours will be Labour voters. If new houses are built then the neighbours can also own their own home and transport, while they still own their own.
Ensuring everyone owns their own home and transport is the far most important thing, not having a few people that do then pandering to those NIMBY scumbags.
Did we find out the explanation for Sunak abstaining last night?
Can only be pairing, illness or isolating.
Lots of suggestions that he was paired with Rachel Reeves - who was voting through the same lobby so not that. Possibly ill? Or "accidentally" locked in the toilet as was suggested.
Notice how under the radar this has gone. "RIFT ON DOWNING STREET" headlines have not appeared after the unexplained abstention of the Chancellor. It feels like massive disagreement is priced in - Peppa goes to an emergency '22 meeting faced with a big rebellion, pleads, and comes out having persuaded another 20 to vote against him.
So why would the Chancellor not find a reason not to be there? That he didn't for "nazi Germany" will have been noticed by the mouth-foamers in the Tory ranks...
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
The idea that the coalition that Boris built is available to anyone else in the Tory party is optimistic bordering on delusional. Boris reaches other voters in ways no other Tory has matched in a very long time, with the possible exception of Ruth Davidson.
Surely that should read "reached" rather than "reaches" ?
Is there evidence of Johnson retaining popularity in Red Wall* towns? He seems a popular as a turd in a swimming pool everywhere.
*I agree with @dixiedean that the Red Wall stereotype is not very accurate, I think voters there are not the fossils that some depict. Indeed not very different to other parts of the country.
I agree on the demographics but they had a tradition of not voting Tory or indeed anything but Labour. Boris broke that. I really doubt that anyone other than him can do it again, whatever his current popularity.
As Johnson cannot do that - seriously go talk to punters who are apoplectic about him "taking the piss" - then the alternative needs to be found.
I've made the case for Sunak, quietly putting himself about in places like Bishop Aukland to talk up how much cash he personally has given their new Tory MP. Red wallers voted for results, if he can deliver something and be associated with it, he is their best shot. Far more so than nobodies like Truss or remote southerners like Hunt.
Ever seen Sunak in action? He is like a tiny John Major, brilliant with people, exudes charm and energy. And unlike Major has the advantage of not having that voice and that face and Edwina as a mistress.
Major did win the 1992 election narrowly v Kinnock against the odds, just but then led the Tories to their lowest seat total since 1906 and their lowest voteshare since 1832 in 1997 v Blair.
Did we find out the explanation for Sunak abstaining last night?
Can only be pairing, illness or isolating.
Lots of suggestions that he was paired with Rachel Reeves - who was voting through the same lobby so not that. Possibly ill? Or "accidentally" locked in the toilet as was suggested.
Notice how under the radar this has gone. "RIFT ON DOWNING STREET" headlines have not appeared after the unexplained abstention of the Chancellor. It feels like massive disagreement is priced in - Peppa goes to an emergency '22 meeting faced with a big rebellion, pleads, and comes out having persuaded another 20 to vote against him.
So why would the Chancellor not find a reason not to be there? That he didn't for "nazi Germany" will have been noticed by the mouth-foamers in the Tory ranks...
Isn't pairing based on party, not on intention on any particular issue? Perhaps @NickPalmer could enlighten us?
Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.
So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
That's going to hit people more, indeed.
As this excellent article from The Economist a while back put it, its all about cars and houses. The Red Wall is full of houses with 2 cars each, its not train sets. The mantra for keeping it needs to be cars and houses, cars and houses, cars and houses. Deal with those and you've got it.
Not sure that Wazza counts as the red wall. We know your personal views on developers building houses everywhere with no impediment. But red wall voters tend to not want that. So what you advocate is the opposite of what they will vote for. Labour are seen as the party of stupid planning applications, the Tories as the ones who oppose them and defend their communities.
You're turning into @HYUFD - "pull up the drawbridge, I own my home, so screw everyone else." You'll be banging on about the evils of inheritance tax and the importance of inheritances next.
The point is that if you own your own home and own your own transport then that is the making of a Conservative voter.
Conservative voters might say they don't want more houses built as they want to protect their house prices, but then if that means their neighbours have no choice but to live in privately rented accommodation then their neighbours will be Labour voters. If new houses are built then the neighbours can also own their own home and transport, while they still own their own.
Ensuring everyone owns their own home and transport is the far most important thing, not having a few people that do then pandering to those NIMBY scumbags.
I am? I've moved to a village where every other house is building another house in their extended back garden - mine had it done already...
I am talking about red wall voters. You can sit here and say how they are wrong but that doesn't change how they think or vote.
They do not want their parks and gardens building on and they are voting to stop that happening. I also love the "private rented" = "Labour voter". You sound like one of the Tory activists who came up from dahn sarf on the Tory bus a few elections ago. Found himself arguing on the doorstep with repeated people that "but you can't be a Labour voter, look at your house, and your car!"
Did we find out the explanation for Sunak abstaining last night?
Can only be pairing, illness or isolating.
Lots of suggestions that he was paired with Rachel Reeves - who was voting through the same lobby so not that. Possibly ill? Or "accidentally" locked in the toilet as was suggested.
Notice how under the radar this has gone. "RIFT ON DOWNING STREET" headlines have not appeared after the unexplained abstention of the Chancellor. It feels like massive disagreement is priced in - Peppa goes to an emergency '22 meeting faced with a big rebellion, pleads, and comes out having persuaded another 20 to vote against him.
So why would the Chancellor not find a reason not to be there? That he didn't for "nazi Germany" will have been noticed by the mouth-foamers in the Tory ranks...
If Reeves is his pair then does pairing cease just because Labour are voting with them instead of against them?
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
Considering how close you live to Manchester its amazing how dense that comment is.
Red wall voters in red wall seats commute into the big cities. By train.
Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.
So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
That's going to hit people more, indeed.
As this excellent article from The Economist a while back put it, its all about cars and houses. The Red Wall is full of houses with 2 cars each, its not train sets. The mantra for keeping it needs to be cars and houses, cars and houses, cars and houses. Deal with those and you've got it.
Not sure that Wazza counts as the red wall. We know your personal views on developers building houses everywhere with no impediment. But red wall voters tend to not want that. So what you advocate is the opposite of what they will vote for. Labour are seen as the party of stupid planning applications, the Tories as the ones who oppose them and defend their communities.
The result of "defending communities" can be... interesting.
In Marden, in Kent, a genius campaign led to decreasing the size of a new batch of houses being built*. So in the middle of the countryside, boxes that make you feel cramped looking at them. Complete with patio gardens, with several fence fires already from the fact that there isn't enough space to safely barbecue in them!
Net result - reduced the value of the old houses that over look them. According to a local estate agent.
But hey, the people per sq foot number is awwwwwwwesome!
*Pressure on the council to build houses. Pressure on the council to reduce the space for the estates of houses. Result was unexpected!!
Did we find out the explanation for Sunak abstaining last night?
Can only be pairing, illness or isolating.
Lots of suggestions that he was paired with Rachel Reeves - who was voting through the same lobby so not that. Possibly ill? Or "accidentally" locked in the toilet as was suggested.
Notice how under the radar this has gone. "RIFT ON DOWNING STREET" headlines have not appeared after the unexplained abstention of the Chancellor. It feels like massive disagreement is priced in - Peppa goes to an emergency '22 meeting faced with a big rebellion, pleads, and comes out having persuaded another 20 to vote against him.
So why would the Chancellor not find a reason not to be there? That he didn't for "nazi Germany" will have been noticed by the mouth-foamers in the Tory ranks...
If Reeves is his pair then does pairing cease just because Labour are voting with them instead of against them?
It seems like pairing is the logical explanation.
Pairing won't necessarily be a single person - I seem to remember it's we have X missing Tory MPs so we can match X missing Labour / Lib Dem MPs.
And pairing doesn't matter when Labour and Tories are voting the same way.
So even if Reeves is paired with Sunak no Tory whip is going to complain about Reeves voting and Sunak not voting when Reeves voted the same way Sunak would have done.
Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.
So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
That's going to hit people more, indeed.
As this excellent article from The Economist a while back put it, its all about cars and houses. The Red Wall is full of houses with 2 cars each, its not train sets. The mantra for keeping it needs to be cars and houses, cars and houses, cars and houses. Deal with those and you've got it.
Not sure that Wazza counts as the red wall. We know your personal views on developers building houses everywhere with no impediment. But red wall voters tend to not want that. So what you advocate is the opposite of what they will vote for. Labour are seen as the party of stupid planning applications, the Tories as the ones who oppose them and defend their communities.
You're turning into @HYUFD - "pull up the drawbridge, I own my home, so screw everyone else." You'll be banging on about the evils of inheritance tax and the importance of inheritances next.
The point is that if you own your own home and own your own transport then that is the making of a Conservative voter.
Conservative voters might say they don't want more houses built as they want to protect their house prices, but then if that means their neighbours have no choice but to live in privately rented accommodation then their neighbours will be Labour voters. If new houses are built then the neighbours can also own their own home and transport, while they still own their own.
Ensuring everyone owns their own home and transport is the far most important thing, not having a few people that do then pandering to those NIMBY scumbags.
I am? I've moved to a village where every other house is building another house in their extended back garden - mine had it done already...
I am talking about red wall voters. You can sit here and say how they are wrong but that doesn't change how they think or vote.
They do not want their parks and gardens building on and they are voting to stop that happening. I also love the "private rented" = "Labour voter". You sound like one of the Tory activists who came up from dahn sarf on the Tory bus a few elections ago. Found himself arguing on the doorstep with repeated people that "but you can't be a Labour voter, look at your house, and your car!"
How they think or vote matters far more whether they themselves are a home owner, and whether they themselves can afford their own transport, than their neighbours.
Forget your anecdata from talking with whinging NIMBY scumbags and look at the actual evidence. Look at the data I supplied. The Red Wall (and places like Wazza too) has seen rampant house building in recent years and has the lowest house price to wage multiple in the country as a result. As a result people have been able to afford their own homes. As a result more people are now home owners. As a result more people vote Tory.
If the NIMBY shiteating scumbags were listened to then you'd have a few people happy to look at theoretical £££££££s on their house price while far more people would be living in privately rented accommodation and voting Labour.
The idea that the coalition that Boris built is available to anyone else in the Tory party is optimistic bordering on delusional. Boris reaches other voters in ways no other Tory has matched in a very long time, with the possible exception of Ruth Davidson.
Surely that should read "reached" rather than "reaches" ?
Is there evidence of Johnson retaining popularity in Red Wall* towns? He seems a popular as a turd in a swimming pool everywhere.
*I agree with @dixiedean that the Red Wall stereotype is not very accurate, I think voters there are not the fossils that some depict. Indeed not very different to other parts of the country.
I agree on the demographics but they had a tradition of not voting Tory or indeed anything but Labour. Boris broke that. I really doubt that anyone other than him can do it again, whatever his current popularity.
As Johnson cannot do that - seriously go talk to punters who are apoplectic about him "taking the piss" - then the alternative needs to be found.
I've made the case for Sunak, quietly putting himself about in places like Bishop Aukland to talk up how much cash he personally has given their new Tory MP. Red wallers voted for results, if he can deliver something and be associated with it, he is their best shot. Far more so than nobodies like Truss or remote southerners like Hunt.
Ever seen Sunak in action? He is like a tiny John Major, brilliant with people, exudes charm and energy. And unlike Major has the advantage of not having that voice and that face and Edwina as a mistress.
Major did win the 1992 election narrowly v Kinnock against the odds, just but then led the Tories to their lowest seat total since 1906 and their lowest voteshare since 1832 in 1997 v Blair.
So Sunak being Major is a mixed blessing
You're a few years younger than me so may not have the same awareness. The 1992 election campaign was a masterpiece by John Major. He had inherited a political mess, was well behind in the polls, and had to fight. Instead of big set-piece events like Theresa May hiding in a half-empty factory or Peppa hiding from Piers Morgan in that fridge, he went into town centres, set up his soapbox and started talking. Hecklers and all. Brilliant street politics from someone unexpected.
And it worked. John Major got the biggest ever vote tally. Bigger than Thatcher. Won re-election with a working majority in an election he was widely expected to lose. And you brush it aside.
Claim to be a Tory? You know nothing Essicks boy...
Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.
So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
That's going to hit people more, indeed.
As this excellent article from The Economist a while back put it, its all about cars and houses. The Red Wall is full of houses with 2 cars each, its not train sets. The mantra for keeping it needs to be cars and houses, cars and houses, cars and houses. Deal with those and you've got it.
Not sure that Wazza counts as the red wall. We know your personal views on developers building houses everywhere with no impediment. But red wall voters tend to not want that. So what you advocate is the opposite of what they will vote for. Labour are seen as the party of stupid planning applications, the Tories as the ones who oppose them and defend their communities.
You're turning into @HYUFD - "pull up the drawbridge, I own my home, so screw everyone else." You'll be banging on about the evils of inheritance tax and the importance of inheritances next.
The point is that if you own your own home and own your own transport then that is the making of a Conservative voter.
Conservative voters might say they don't want more houses built as they want to protect their house prices, but then if that means their neighbours have no choice but to live in privately rented accommodation then their neighbours will be Labour voters. If new houses are built then the neighbours can also own their own home and transport, while they still own their own.
Ensuring everyone owns their own home and transport is the far most important thing, not having a few people that do then pandering to those NIMBY scumbags.
I am? I've moved to a village where every other house is building another house in their extended back garden - mine had it done already...
I am talking about red wall voters. You can sit here and say how they are wrong but that doesn't change how they think or vote.
They do not want their parks and gardens building on and they are voting to stop that happening. I also love the "private rented" = "Labour voter". You sound like one of the Tory activists who came up from dahn sarf on the Tory bus a few elections ago. Found himself arguing on the doorstep with repeated people that "but you can't be a Labour voter, look at your house, and your car!"
A rare occasion I agree with Rochdale. Voters do not want their parks, gardens, greenspaces and greenbelt built all over. That is certainly the case in the Home Counties but even true in the Redwall.
If new development is to take place it should be in brown belt first. As the chart PT showed demonstrates most voters in the redwall already own a property anyway, it is in big cities, especially London where home ownership is lowest and where affordable homes to buy are most needed
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
In the True North they don't have EPL football teams
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
Considering how close you live to Manchester its amazing how dense that comment is.
Red wall voters in red wall seats commute into the big cities. By train.
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
In the True North they don't have EPL football teams
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
In the True North they don't have EPL football teams
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
In the True North they don't have EPL football teams
Given how Manchester is closer to Guernsey than to where I live, I'm calling Manchester the True South.
Tory MPs who have enthusiastically backed the government as it removes more freedoms from UK citizens than any other since WW2 are just contemptible hypocrites and/or fools. I cannot wait to see who they next inflict on us as PM. Whoever it is, though, will continue to use legislation to remove the rights of anyone who disagrees with the government. And those self-proclaimed champions of liberty will continue to cheer it on.
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
In the True North they don't have EPL football teams
Given how Manchester is closer to Guernsey than to where I live, I'm calling Manchester the True South.
Anywhere south of Keswick is South. And London is right out on the fringes, just as much as Scapa Flow.
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
Considering how close you live to Manchester its amazing how dense that comment is.
Red wall voters in red wall seats commute into the big cities. By train.
A difficulty with buses is that they often run from the suburbs into the centre. There seem to be few cross city, or even cross county services. As example, (I live in a rural-ish area) if I want to go to the two nearest big towns there's a bus which runs from one to the other every half-hour. However, if I want to go to the two smaller neighbouring communities, 10 minutes or so's drive away I have to use the big town bus and get a connection. Takes at least an hour.
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
In the True North they don't have EPL football teams
Given how Manchester is closer to Guernsey than to where I live, I'm calling Manchester the True South.
The focus is actually now on getting as many adults to have their boosters by January not more restrictions. Rightly so
How can you believe this though? Given the creep creep creep. It’s boiling frog stuff they’re doing.
“Ooooh me I don’t mind wearing a mask in Tescos” easily folds into “shutting schools is the moral thing to do” so long as you have the right steps and signals along the way.
I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if Johnson goes on telly to announce new restrictions while Parliament is in recess. Because he’s a fucking coward and a lair. But you’ve still not woken up to this. It would be ok if I really thought the MPs would vote him out, but I don’t think they will. There’s 100 of them on the govt gravy train, mostly not by merit, and half the backbenchers are craven.
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
In the True North they don't have EPL football teams
Given how Manchester is closer to Guernsey than to where I live, I'm calling Manchester the True South.
So why is where you live the defining point?
Because I'm the warm centre of the universe, obviously.
If the LDs win North Shropshire then Boris will likely face a VONC in the next few weeks, which he should still survive. Though judging by last night's vote over a 1/3 of Tory MPs would vote against him.
Otherwise he needs the booster programme to have proved a success by mid January next year and to have avoided another lockdown
If a third of Tory MPs vote against him how the hell does he survive a VONC ?
Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.
So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
That's going to hit people more, indeed.
As this excellent article from The Economist a while back put it, its all about cars and houses. The Red Wall is full of houses with 2 cars each, its not train sets. The mantra for keeping it needs to be cars and houses, cars and houses, cars and houses. Deal with those and you've got it.
Not sure that Wazza counts as the red wall. We know your personal views on developers building houses everywhere with no impediment. But red wall voters tend to not want that. So what you advocate is the opposite of what they will vote for. Labour are seen as the party of stupid planning applications, the Tories as the ones who oppose them and defend their communities.
You're turning into @HYUFD - "pull up the drawbridge, I own my home, so screw everyone else." You'll be banging on about the evils of inheritance tax and the importance of inheritances next.
The point is that if you own your own home and own your own transport then that is the making of a Conservative voter.
Conservative voters might say they don't want more houses built as they want to protect their house prices, but then if that means their neighbours have no choice but to live in privately rented accommodation then their neighbours will be Labour voters. If new houses are built then the neighbours can also own their own home and transport, while they still own their own.
Ensuring everyone owns their own home and transport is the far most important thing, not having a few people that do then pandering to those NIMBY scumbags.
I am? I've moved to a village where every other house is building another house in their extended back garden - mine had it done already...
I am talking about red wall voters. You can sit here and say how they are wrong but that doesn't change how they think or vote.
They do not want their parks and gardens building on and they are voting to stop that happening. I also love the "private rented" = "Labour voter". You sound like one of the Tory activists who came up from dahn sarf on the Tory bus a few elections ago. Found himself arguing on the doorstep with repeated people that "but you can't be a Labour voter, look at your house, and your car!"
A rare occasion I agree with Rochdale. Voters do not want their parks, gardens, greenspaces and greenbelt built all over. That is certainly the case in the Home Counties but even true in the Redwall.
If new development is to take place it should be in brown belt first. As the chart PT showed demonstrates most voters in the redwall already own a property anyway, it is in big cities, especially London where home ownership is lowest and where affordable homes to buy are most needed
In Red Wall areas, and indeed in much of the 'suburbs' parks etc are rightly seen as essential islands of green in street after street of similar houses. People often walk some distance to be able to walk in them.
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
Considering how close you live to Manchester its amazing how dense that comment is.
Red wall voters in red wall seats commute into the big cities. By train.
If the LDs win North Shropshire then Boris will likely face a VONC in the next few weeks, which he should still survive. Though judging by last night's vote over a 1/3 of Tory MPs would vote against him.
Otherwise he needs the booster programme to have proved a success by mid January next year and to have avoided another lockdown
If a third of Tory MPs vote against him how the hell does he survive a VONC ?
Because he's de facto head of the C of E and can arrange for a miracle?
As suspected, prior infection by Delta gives very high level protection against Omicron. Professor Tim Spector will outline the final data soon but early indications are that a Delta infection in the last 6 months will protect from symptomatic Omicron.
Far from Omicron not caring about prior infections, it's highly likely that prior infections offer the best immunity overall, even more than three doses of vaccine.
Good thing 80% of our unvaccinated adults got Delta over the summer and autumn. Going into Omicron with an additional 8-10m unvaccinated, non-immune people would have meant a lockdown to protect the NHS from stupid people dying from their stupid decisions.
Tory MPs who have enthusiastically backed the government as it removes more freedoms from UK citizens than any other since WW2 are just contemptible hypocrites and/or fools. I cannot wait to see who they next inflict on us as PM. Whoever it is, though, will continue to use legislation to remove the rights of anyone who disagrees with the government. And those self-proclaimed champions of liberty will continue to cheer it on.
More to the point, the Tory rebels last night over the requirement for a bit of paper, which will be in force for all of two months, will very likely back with gusto the infinitely more serious depredations from Raab and Patel.
The idea that the coalition that Boris built is available to anyone else in the Tory party is optimistic bordering on delusional. Boris reaches other voters in ways no other Tory has matched in a very long time, with the possible exception of Ruth Davidson.
Surely that should read "reached" rather than "reaches" ?
Is there evidence of Johnson retaining popularity in Red Wall* towns? He seems a popular as a turd in a swimming pool everywhere.
*I agree with @dixiedean that the Red Wall stereotype is not very accurate, I think voters there are not the fossils that some depict. Indeed not very different to other parts of the country.
I agree on the demographics but they had a tradition of not voting Tory or indeed anything but Labour. Boris broke that. I really doubt that anyone other than him can do it again, whatever his current popularity.
As Johnson cannot do that - seriously go talk to punters who are apoplectic about him "taking the piss" - then the alternative needs to be found.
I've made the case for Sunak, quietly putting himself about in places like Bishop Aukland to talk up how much cash he personally has given their new Tory MP. Red wallers voted for results, if he can deliver something and be associated with it, he is their best shot. Far more so than nobodies like Truss or remote southerners like Hunt.
Ever seen Sunak in action? He is like a tiny John Major, brilliant with people, exudes charm and energy. And unlike Major has the advantage of not having that voice and that face and Edwina as a mistress.
Major did win the 1992 election narrowly v Kinnock against the odds, just but then led the Tories to their lowest seat total since 1906 and their lowest voteshare since 1832 in 1997 v Blair.
So Sunak being Major is a mixed blessing
You're a few years younger than me so may not have the same awareness. The 1992 election campaign was a masterpiece by John Major. He had inherited a political mess, was well behind in the polls, and had to fight. Instead of big set-piece events like Theresa May hiding in a half-empty factory or Peppa hiding from Piers Morgan in that fridge, he went into town centres, set up his soapbox and started talking. Hecklers and all. Brilliant street politics from someone unexpected.
And it worked. John Major got the biggest ever vote tally. Bigger than Thatcher. Won re-election with a working majority in an election he was widely expected to lose. And you brush it aside.
Claim to be a Tory? You know nothing Essicks boy...
HYUFD and RP you aren't really disagreeing are you? Major did a brilliant job in 92 but it had the consequence of 97. So you are both right in my opinion.
Previously HYUFD you have accused me of wanting rid of Boris because he is a winner. This isn't true. I want rid of him for a lot of other reasons. Right or wrong I fear Sunak as a political opponent more, but I also think he would be a better PM. Country before politics.
That's way lower than the 1m per day and is probably manageable for a month as it may only present 1500-2000 hospitalisations per day in a largely immune population.
The idea that the coalition that Boris built is available to anyone else in the Tory party is optimistic bordering on delusional. Boris reaches other voters in ways no other Tory has matched in a very long time, with the possible exception of Ruth Davidson.
Surely that should read "reached" rather than "reaches" ?
Is there evidence of Johnson retaining popularity in Red Wall* towns? He seems a popular as a turd in a swimming pool everywhere.
*I agree with @dixiedean that the Red Wall stereotype is not very accurate, I think voters there are not the fossils that some depict. Indeed not very different to other parts of the country.
I agree on the demographics but they had a tradition of not voting Tory or indeed anything but Labour. Boris broke that. I really doubt that anyone other than him can do it again, whatever his current popularity.
As Johnson cannot do that - seriously go talk to punters who are apoplectic about him "taking the piss" - then the alternative needs to be found.
I've made the case for Sunak, quietly putting himself about in places like Bishop Aukland to talk up how much cash he personally has given their new Tory MP. Red wallers voted for results, if he can deliver something and be associated with it, he is their best shot. Far more so than nobodies like Truss or remote southerners like Hunt.
Ever seen Sunak in action? He is like a tiny John Major, brilliant with people, exudes charm and energy. And unlike Major has the advantage of not having that voice and that face and Edwina as a mistress.
Major did win the 1992 election narrowly v Kinnock against the odds, just but then led the Tories to their lowest seat total since 1906 and their lowest voteshare since 1832 in 1997 v Blair.
So Sunak being Major is a mixed blessing
You're a few years younger than me so may not have the same awareness. The 1992 election campaign was a masterpiece by John Major. He had inherited a political mess, was well behind in the polls, and had to fight. Instead of big set-piece events like Theresa May hiding in a half-empty factory or Peppa hiding from Piers Morgan in that fridge, he went into town centres, set up his soapbox and started talking. Hecklers and all. Brilliant street politics from someone unexpected.
And it worked. John Major got the biggest ever vote tally. Bigger than Thatcher. Won re-election with a working majority in an election he was widely expected to lose. And you brush it aside.
Claim to be a Tory? You know nothing Essicks boy...
Chris Patten and his Labour Tax Bombshell campaign probably won that election for the Tories. It scared enough voters into giving them one more chance. He lost his seat, mind!
Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.
So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
That's going to hit people more, indeed.
As this excellent article from The Economist a while back put it, its all about cars and houses. The Red Wall is full of houses with 2 cars each, its not train sets. The mantra for keeping it needs to be cars and houses, cars and houses, cars and houses. Deal with those and you've got it.
Not sure that Wazza counts as the red wall. We know your personal views on developers building houses everywhere with no impediment. But red wall voters tend to not want that. So what you advocate is the opposite of what they will vote for. Labour are seen as the party of stupid planning applications, the Tories as the ones who oppose them and defend their communities.
Phil raises a good point. In my neck of the woods very few people commute by train. Unless you work in Leeds or close to one of the stations on the line there's no point. It's all cars, loads of two or three - or more - car households. Lots of fairly new cars, presumably the vast majority leased.
If you can't drive it's generally buses, which are ok but not as good as they were when I was a student and used them regularly 25 years ago.
Houses are being chucked up round here on brownfield sites which get a bit of grumbling but I think most people are glad to see regeneration. Greenfield areas are very different.
FWIW here in Yvette Cooper's constituency, beyond the Mail and Sun reading pensioners who yearn for a return of the Empire, I think there's a tacit, quiet feeling that Brexit isn't working and Levelling Up is a load of garbage. I think Cooper's safe next time. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my part.
Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.
So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
I was there with petrol years ago.
Go electric/hybrid, I felt even more smugger when we had the fuel crisis a few months ago.
You may have a case with hybrids (just...), but I have a fairly healthy amount of contempt for the view that EVs are affordable for the masses yet. They are not. They are not currently a workable solution to the problems - and face significant issues themselves with high take-up.
People with EVs should pay a smugness tax.
No, I really see that EVs have reached the point where they become mainstream. The technology is there, and becoming better value. Not least because the depreciation on ICE cars will be terrible soon. Used cars are holding value well at present because of supply shortages, but will be unsellable in a few years.
'Mainstream' amongst well-paid professionals such as doctors, perhaps.
If you think that practical EVs are in any way accessible to most, then I'm afraid you're as out-of-touch as Boris Johnson.
I think they'll get there, but not for a few years yet.
Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.
So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
That's going to hit people more, indeed.
As this excellent article from The Economist a while back put it, its all about cars and houses. The Red Wall is full of houses with 2 cars each, its not train sets. The mantra for keeping it needs to be cars and houses, cars and houses, cars and houses. Deal with those and you've got it.
Not sure that Wazza counts as the red wall. We know your personal views on developers building houses everywhere with no impediment. But red wall voters tend to not want that. So what you advocate is the opposite of what they will vote for. Labour are seen as the party of stupid planning applications, the Tories as the ones who oppose them and defend their communities.
You're turning into @HYUFD - "pull up the drawbridge, I own my home, so screw everyone else." You'll be banging on about the evils of inheritance tax and the importance of inheritances next.
The point is that if you own your own home and own your own transport then that is the making of a Conservative voter.
Conservative voters might say they don't want more houses built as they want to protect their house prices, but then if that means their neighbours have no choice but to live in privately rented accommodation then their neighbours will be Labour voters. If new houses are built then the neighbours can also own their own home and transport, while they still own their own.
Ensuring everyone owns their own home and transport is the far most important thing, not having a few people that do then pandering to those NIMBY scumbags.
I am? I've moved to a village where every other house is building another house in their extended back garden - mine had it done already...
I am talking about red wall voters. You can sit here and say how they are wrong but that doesn't change how they think or vote.
They do not want their parks and gardens building on and they are voting to stop that happening. I also love the "private rented" = "Labour voter". You sound like one of the Tory activists who came up from dahn sarf on the Tory bus a few elections ago. Found himself arguing on the doorstep with repeated people that "but you can't be a Labour voter, look at your house, and your car!"
How they think or vote matters far more whether they themselves are a home owner, and whether they themselves can afford their own transport, than their neighbours.
Forget your anecdata from talking with whinging NIMBY scumbags and look at the actual evidence. Look at the data I supplied. The Red Wall (and places like Wazza too) has seen rampant house building in recent years and has the lowest house price to wage multiple in the country as a result. As a result people have been able to afford their own homes. As a result more people are now home owners. As a result more people vote Tory.
If the NIMBY shiteating scumbags were listened to then you'd have a few people happy to look at theoretical £££££££s on their house price while far more people would be living in privately rented accommodation and voting Labour.
Philip you are losing the plot. Calm down.
On the basis of your (flawed) analysis, 5% inflation and soon to be interest and mortgage rate rises are going to be a big headache for your new home owning Tory voters.
As suspected, prior infection by Delta gives very high level protection against Omicron. Professor Tim Spector will outline the final data soon but early indications are that a Delta infection in the last 6 months will protect from symptomatic Omicron.
Far from Omicron not caring about prior infections, it's highly likely that prior infections offer the best immunity overall, even more than three doses of vaccine.
Good thing 80% of our unvaccinated adults got Delta over the summer and autumn. Going into Omicron with an additional 8-10m unvaccinated, non-immune people would have meant a lockdown to protect the NHS from stupid people dying from their stupid decisions.
Have you done the maths on this? If Omicron is less deadly, then that is a counterbalance to the sharper healthcare usage. In other words, is it better to get the milder form with everyone else, or the deadlier form when capacity isn't as strained?
I asked this yesterday in a different form but nobody seemed to want to take it on.
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
Where does "The South" begin? Try telling anyone from Manchester that they are not "true northerners" and if you are lucky they will laugh in your face...
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
In the True North they don't have EPL football teams
Given how Manchester is closer to Guernsey than to where I live, I'm calling Manchester the True South.
If you define North and South an a whole-Britain basis then we go back to the days of talking about North Britain instead of Scotland. Often when people talk about "the North" they are actually talking about "the North of England".
And then there's the question as to whether to use geographical distances as a demarcation, or population numbers.
Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.
So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
I was there with petrol years ago.
Go electric/hybrid, I felt even more smugger when we had the fuel crisis a few months ago.
You may have a case with hybrids (just...), but I have a fairly healthy amount of contempt for the view that EVs are affordable for the masses yet. They are not. They are not currently a workable solution to the problems - and face significant issues themselves with high take-up.
People with EVs should pay a smugness tax.
No, I really see that EVs have reached the point where they become mainstream. The technology is there, and becoming better value. Not least because the depreciation on ICE cars will be terrible soon. Used cars are holding value well at present because of supply shortages, but will be unsellable in a few years.
'Mainstream' amongst well-paid professionals such as doctors, perhaps.
If you think that practical EVs are in any way accessible to most, then I'm afraid you're as out-of-touch as Boris Johnson.
I think they'll get there, but not for a few years yet.
Interested by the conjunction between this line of discussion and the parallel one on the Red Wall and its use of cars for commuting. These themes will come together very soon with interesting political results ...
Tory MPs who have enthusiastically backed the government as it removes more freedoms from UK citizens than any other since WW2 are just contemptible hypocrites and/or fools. I cannot wait to see who they next inflict on us as PM. Whoever it is, though, will continue to use legislation to remove the rights of anyone who disagrees with the government. And those self-proclaimed champions of liberty will continue to cheer it on.
More to the point, the Tory rebels last night over the requirement for a bit of paper, which will be in force for all of two months, will very likely back with gusto the infinitely more serious depredations from Raab and Patel.
Of course - proving you have had a vaccine is a mild inconvenience to them and so must be opposed at all costs, but deportations that will ruin countless lives will happen to other people so are absolutely fine. That is Tory freedom.
On the doom mongers science wankers saying that prior infection might not work again Omicron, it never sat right. COVID would have to act differently to every other virus in that it could evade t-cells and b-cells with just a handful of mutations to one part of it. That didn't make sense and I'm glad we're getting data from Spector about how well a Delta infection will protect from Omicron, I'd expect it to be above 90%.
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
In the True North they don't have EPL football teams
Given how Manchester is closer to Guernsey than to where I live, I'm calling Manchester the True South.
If you define North and South an a whole-Britain basis then we go back to the days of talking about North Britain instead of Scotland. Often when people talk about "the North" they are actually talking about "the North of England".
And then there's the question as to whether to use geographical distances as a demarcation, or population numbers.
And England as South Britain - but WAles is also there.
On the doom mongers science wankers saying that prior infection might not work again Omicron, it never sat right. COVID would have to act differently to every other virus in that it could evade t-cells and b-cells with just a handful of mutations to one part of it. That didn't make sense and I'm glad we're getting data from Spector about how well a Delta infection will protect from Omicron, I'd expect it to be above 90%.
Not as good as that:
18. What about the risk of reinfection?
1. People infected with #Delta = 40% relative risk of reinfection with #Omicron 2. People infected with Beta = 60% relative risk of infection with Omicron https://t.co/8kBK8p9lCg
As suspected, prior infection by Delta gives very high level protection against Omicron. Professor Tim Spector will outline the final data soon but early indications are that a Delta infection in the last 6 months will protect from symptomatic Omicron.
Far from Omicron not caring about prior infections, it's highly likely that prior infections offer the best immunity overall, even more than three doses of vaccine.
Good thing 80% of our unvaccinated adults got Delta over the summer and autumn. Going into Omicron with an additional 8-10m unvaccinated, non-immune people would have meant a lockdown to protect the NHS from stupid people dying from their stupid decisions.
Is there a way of turning this argument into numbers for hospital admissions in London, so that we would be able to say in one week either "hospital admissions in London have only gone up to x, proving we have sufficient prior immunity that the NHS is safe" or "hospital admissions in London have gone up by x + y, proving that unfortunately our prior immunity won't be enough to stop the Omicron wave from collapsing the NHS"
I can see that hospital admissions are climbing in London, but I've no idea what rate is okay, and what is too fast.
As suspected, prior infection by Delta gives very high level protection against Omicron. Professor Tim Spector will outline the final data soon but early indications are that a Delta infection in the last 6 months will protect from symptomatic Omicron.
Far from Omicron not caring about prior infections, it's highly likely that prior infections offer the best immunity overall, even more than three doses of vaccine.
Good thing 80% of our unvaccinated adults got Delta over the summer and autumn. Going into Omicron with an additional 8-10m unvaccinated, non-immune people would have meant a lockdown to protect the NHS from stupid people dying from their stupid decisions.
Have you done the maths on this? If Omicron is less deadly, then that is a counterbalance to the sharper healthcare usage. In other words, is it better to get the milder form with everyone else, or the deadlier form when capacity isn't as strained?
I asked this yesterday in a different form but nobody seemed to want to take it on.
From an individual perspective it may be better to get Omicron, from a public health perspective Omicron infects at a rate 4x faster than Delta, so even if the hospitalisation rate is halved, double the number of people end up in hospital and we still have ~3-4m adults with no vaccines and no prior infections, Omicron will find these people very quickly and put ~200k in hospital. If that number was 8-10m higher we'd expect up to 600k hospitalisations in a very short space of time.
Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.
So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
That's going to hit people more, indeed.
As this excellent article from The Economist a while back put it, its all about cars and houses. The Red Wall is full of houses with 2 cars each, its not train sets. The mantra for keeping it needs to be cars and houses, cars and houses, cars and houses. Deal with those and you've got it.
Not sure that Wazza counts as the red wall. We know your personal views on developers building houses everywhere with no impediment. But red wall voters tend to not want that. So what you advocate is the opposite of what they will vote for. Labour are seen as the party of stupid planning applications, the Tories as the ones who oppose them and defend their communities.
You're turning into @HYUFD - "pull up the drawbridge, I own my home, so screw everyone else." You'll be banging on about the evils of inheritance tax and the importance of inheritances next.
The point is that if you own your own home and own your own transport then that is the making of a Conservative voter.
Conservative voters might say they don't want more houses built as they want to protect their house prices, but then if that means their neighbours have no choice but to live in privately rented accommodation then their neighbours will be Labour voters. If new houses are built then the neighbours can also own their own home and transport, while they still own their own.
Ensuring everyone owns their own home and transport is the far most important thing, not having a few people that do then pandering to those NIMBY scumbags.
I am? I've moved to a village where every other house is building another house in their extended back garden - mine had it done already...
I am talking about red wall voters. You can sit here and say how they are wrong but that doesn't change how they think or vote.
They do not want their parks and gardens building on and they are voting to stop that happening. I also love the "private rented" = "Labour voter". You sound like one of the Tory activists who came up from dahn sarf on the Tory bus a few elections ago. Found himself arguing on the doorstep with repeated people that "but you can't be a Labour voter, look at your house, and your car!"
How they think or vote matters far more whether they themselves are a home owner, and whether they themselves can afford their own transport, than their neighbours.
Forget your anecdata from talking with whinging NIMBY scumbags and look at the actual evidence. Look at the data I supplied. The Red Wall (and places like Wazza too) has seen rampant house building in recent years and has the lowest house price to wage multiple in the country as a result. As a result people have been able to afford their own homes. As a result more people are now home owners. As a result more people vote Tory.
If the NIMBY shiteating scumbags were listened to then you'd have a few people happy to look at theoretical £££££££s on their house price while far more people would be living in privately rented accommodation and voting Labour.
Why would they listen to me? I am not important.
My anecdata is what is happening. The surge in Tory and independent councillors and now Tory MPs has a direct link to the "rampant house building" which is being done by Labour councils who the government are forcing into it.
People do not want "rampant house building". So they vote against the people they think are responsible and instead elect people who say they will stop it.
Being all in favour of personal liberties I would have thought democratic free will would be something you support. Not branding your fellow travellers "NIMBY shit-eating scumbags"
On the doom mongers science wankers saying that prior infection might not work again Omicron, it never sat right. COVID would have to act differently to every other virus in that it could evade t-cells and b-cells with just a handful of mutations to one part of it. That didn't make sense and I'm glad we're getting data from Spector about how well a Delta infection will protect from Omicron, I'd expect it to be above 90%.
Not as good as that:
18. What about the risk of reinfection?
1. People infected with #Delta = 40% relative risk of reinfection with #Omicron 2. People infected with Beta = 60% relative risk of infection with Omicron https://t.co/8kBK8p9lCg
I'm going to wait for Spector, he got the delta reinfection rate bang on and note his is based on symptomatic infection, I'd expect the actual infection rate to be higher where the primary defence is t-cells.
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
In the True North they don't have EPL football teams
Given how Manchester is closer to Guernsey than to where I live, I'm calling Manchester the True South.
If you define North and South an a whole-Britain basis then we go back to the days of talking about North Britain instead of Scotland. Often when people talk about "the North" they are actually talking about "the North of England".
And then there's the question as to whether to use geographical distances as a demarcation, or population numbers.
Well, yes, my post was mostly a mild provocation, but it's a useful exercise to shake us out of the rut of ordinary perception that language invariably creates. To call places like Manchester "the north" implies the place our language is located is somewhat south of that point. It leads to a faint dissonance. If the North is 300 miles south, where even am I?
I'm not making a big deal of it. I wouldn't have mentioned it other than for the fact we suddenly now seem to be talking about the "true north". That seems new to me.
As suspected, prior infection by Delta gives very high level protection against Omicron. Professor Tim Spector will outline the final data soon but early indications are that a Delta infection in the last 6 months will protect from symptomatic Omicron.
Far from Omicron not caring about prior infections, it's highly likely that prior infections offer the best immunity overall, even more than three doses of vaccine.
Good thing 80% of our unvaccinated adults got Delta over the summer and autumn. Going into Omicron with an additional 8-10m unvaccinated, non-immune people would have meant a lockdown to protect the NHS from stupid people dying from their stupid decisions.
Have you done the maths on this? If Omicron is less deadly, then that is a counterbalance to the sharper healthcare usage. In other words, is it better to get the milder form with everyone else, or the deadlier form when capacity isn't as strained?
I asked this yesterday in a different form but nobody seemed to want to take it on.
From an individual perspective it may be better to get Omicron, from a public health perspective Omicron infects at a rate 4x faster than Delta, so even if the hospitalisation rate is halved, double the number of people end up in hospital and we still have ~3-4m adults with no vaccines and no prior infections, Omicron will find these people very quickly and put ~200k in hospital. If that number was 8-10m higher we'd expect up to 600k hospitalisations in a very short space of time.
So you're expecting 200k hospitalisations in.. what, the next month?
Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.
So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
I was there with petrol years ago.
Go electric/hybrid, I felt even more smugger when we had the fuel crisis a few months ago.
You may have a case with hybrids (just...), but I have a fairly healthy amount of contempt for the view that EVs are affordable for the masses yet. They are not. They are not currently a workable solution to the problems - and face significant issues themselves with high take-up.
People with EVs should pay a smugness tax.
No, I really see that EVs have reached the point where they become mainstream. The technology is there, and becoming better value. Not least because the depreciation on ICE cars will be terrible soon. Used cars are holding value well at present because of supply shortages, but will be unsellable in a few years.
'Mainstream' amongst well-paid professionals such as doctors, perhaps.
If you think that practical EVs are in any way accessible to most, then I'm afraid you're as out-of-touch as Boris Johnson.
I think they'll get there, but not for a few years yet.
So far this year sales of petrol-only cars outnumber those of battery-only cars by nearly 5:1. Last year this ratio was more than 8:1 and in 2019 nearly 20:1. It certainly looks as though battery electric vehicles are on the rapid growth section of the adoption S-curve.
Not sure where the transition point is between early adopter and being part of the mainstream rush, but it's close. National Grid might have less time to get the grid ready to supply all the additional required electricity than they think.
Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.
So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
That's going to hit people more, indeed.
As this excellent article from The Economist a while back put it, its all about cars and houses. The Red Wall is full of houses with 2 cars each, its not train sets. The mantra for keeping it needs to be cars and houses, cars and houses, cars and houses. Deal with those and you've got it.
Not sure that Wazza counts as the red wall. We know your personal views on developers building houses everywhere with no impediment. But red wall voters tend to not want that. So what you advocate is the opposite of what they will vote for. Labour are seen as the party of stupid planning applications, the Tories as the ones who oppose them and defend their communities.
You're turning into @HYUFD - "pull up the drawbridge, I own my home, so screw everyone else." You'll be banging on about the evils of inheritance tax and the importance of inheritances next.
The point is that if you own your own home and own your own transport then that is the making of a Conservative voter.
Conservative voters might say they don't want more houses built as they want to protect their house prices, but then if that means their neighbours have no choice but to live in privately rented accommodation then their neighbours will be Labour voters. If new houses are built then the neighbours can also own their own home and transport, while they still own their own.
Ensuring everyone owns their own home and transport is the far most important thing, not having a few people that do then pandering to those NIMBY scumbags.
I am? I've moved to a village where every other house is building another house in their extended back garden - mine had it done already...
I am talking about red wall voters. You can sit here and say how they are wrong but that doesn't change how they think or vote.
They do not want their parks and gardens building on and they are voting to stop that happening. I also love the "private rented" = "Labour voter". You sound like one of the Tory activists who came up from dahn sarf on the Tory bus a few elections ago. Found himself arguing on the doorstep with repeated people that "but you can't be a Labour voter, look at your house, and your car!"
How they think or vote matters far more whether they themselves are a home owner, and whether they themselves can afford their own transport, than their neighbours.
Forget your anecdata from talking with whinging NIMBY scumbags and look at the actual evidence. Look at the data I supplied. The Red Wall (and places like Wazza too) has seen rampant house building in recent years and has the lowest house price to wage multiple in the country as a result. As a result people have been able to afford their own homes. As a result more people are now home owners. As a result more people vote Tory.
If the NIMBY shiteating scumbags were listened to then you'd have a few people happy to look at theoretical £££££££s on their house price while far more people would be living in privately rented accommodation and voting Labour.
Philip you are losing the plot. Calm down.
On the basis of your (flawed) analysis, 5% inflation and soon to be interest and mortgage rate rises are going to be a big headache for your new home owning Tory voters.
It's not that long ago that BoJo was trumpeting wage growth as the key success criterion. To be fair, those numbers looked good at the time...
(It would be interesting to run those numbers against government popularity over a few decades. Number of pounds in your pocket at the end of the month is one of those things that can't help but cut through with everyone.)
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
In the True North they don't have EPL football teams
Given how Manchester is closer to Guernsey than to where I live, I'm calling Manchester the True South.
If you define North and South an a whole-Britain basis then we go back to the days of talking about North Britain instead of Scotland. Often when people talk about "the North" they are actually talking about "the North of England".
And then there's the question as to whether to use geographical distances as a demarcation, or population numbers.
Well, yes, my post was mostly a mild provocation, but it's a useful exercise to shake us out of the rut of ordinary perception that language invariably creates. To call places like Manchester "the north" implies the place our language is located is somewhat south of that point. It leads to a faint dissonance. If the North is 300 miles south, where even am I?
I'm not making a big deal of it. I wouldn't have mentioned it other than for the fact we suddenly now seem to be talking about the "true north". That seems new to me.
I once met an Englishman who lived on the Mull of Galloway. He'd previously lived in the Newcastle area, and moved *south* to live in Scotland ...
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
Considering how close you live to Manchester its amazing how dense that comment is.
Red wall voters in red wall seats commute into the big cities. By train.
Data says no.
Eyeballs and brain say yes. Hence the need to keep pouring money into capacity expansion into Manchester and Leeds by train, the promised Leeds metro, Leigh guided busway etc etc etc.
On the doom mongers science wankers saying that prior infection might not work again Omicron, it never sat right. COVID would have to act differently to every other virus in that it could evade t-cells and b-cells with just a handful of mutations to one part of it. That didn't make sense and I'm glad we're getting data from Spector about how well a Delta infection will protect from Omicron, I'd expect it to be above 90%.
Not as good as that:
18. What about the risk of reinfection?
1. People infected with #Delta = 40% relative risk of reinfection with #Omicron 2. People infected with Beta = 60% relative risk of infection with Omicron https://t.co/8kBK8p9lCg
I'm going to wait for Spector, he got the delta reinfection rate bang on and note his is based on symptomatic infection, I'd expect the actual infection rate to be higher where the primary defence is t-cells.
One quick thought those reinfection rates for Beta and Delta may not be connected to the variant but to the time period between initial beta / delta infection and Omicron reinfection.
From my dim and distant memory I'm sure our t-cell numbers reduce as time goes by which means when the reinfection occurs the body starts attacking the virus from a weaker starting point.
Another in my occasional series “why we lost the Referendum and will keep losing the argument”. A classic in fact-
@HelenRushby1 Replying to @CarolineLucas Sorry but I can’t agree. You should have voted for vaccine passports. We live in a country where a third of people voted for Brexit. They cannot be trusted to act responsibility. The only way for sensible people to be safe going out is to enforce vaccine passports. Or I stay home
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
In the True North they don't have EPL football teams
Given how Manchester is closer to Guernsey than to where I live, I'm calling Manchester the True South.
If you define North and South an a whole-Britain basis then we go back to the days of talking about North Britain instead of Scotland. Often when people talk about "the North" they are actually talking about "the North of England".
And then there's the question as to whether to use geographical distances as a demarcation, or population numbers.
And England as South Britain - but WAles is also there.
As suspected, prior infection by Delta gives very high level protection against Omicron. Professor Tim Spector will outline the final data soon but early indications are that a Delta infection in the last 6 months will protect from symptomatic Omicron.
Far from Omicron not caring about prior infections, it's highly likely that prior infections offer the best immunity overall, even more than three doses of vaccine.
Good thing 80% of our unvaccinated adults got Delta over the summer and autumn. Going into Omicron with an additional 8-10m unvaccinated, non-immune people would have meant a lockdown to protect the NHS from stupid people dying from their stupid decisions.
Have you done the maths on this? If Omicron is less deadly, then that is a counterbalance to the sharper healthcare usage. In other words, is it better to get the milder form with everyone else, or the deadlier form when capacity isn't as strained?
I asked this yesterday in a different form but nobody seemed to want to take it on.
From an individual perspective it may be better to get Omicron, from a public health perspective Omicron infects at a rate 4x faster than Delta, so even if the hospitalisation rate is halved, double the number of people end up in hospital and we still have ~3-4m adults with no vaccines and no prior infections, Omicron will find these people very quickly and put ~200k in hospital. If that number was 8-10m higher we'd expect up to 600k hospitalisations in a very short space of time.
So you're expecting 200k hospitalisations in.. what, the next month?
At least that number over 2-3 months, plus whatever we get from breakthroughs which will be over a much longer period of time.
Another in my occasional series “why we lost the Referendum and will keep losing the argument”. A classic in fact-
@HelenRushby1 Replying to @CarolineLucas Sorry but I can’t agree. You should have voted for vaccine passports. We live in a country where a third of people voted for Brexit. They cannot be trusted to act responsibility. The only way for sensible people to be safe going out is to enforce vaccine passports. Or I stay home
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
Considering how close you live to Manchester its amazing how dense that comment is.
Red wall voters in red wall seats commute into the big cities. By train.
Data says no.
Eyeballs and brain say yes. Hence the need to keep pouring money into capacity expansion into Manchester and Leeds by train, the promised Leeds metro, Leigh guided busway etc etc etc.
But again that only works if your job is office based and the office is sat in a town / city centre.
Otherwise no amount of public transport is going to get people to work.
Another in my occasional series “why we lost the Referendum and will keep losing the argument”. A classic in fact-
@HelenRushby1 Replying to @CarolineLucas Sorry but I can’t agree. You should have voted for vaccine passports. We live in a country where a third of people voted for Brexit. They cannot be trusted to act responsibility. The only way for sensible people to be safe going out is to enforce vaccine passports. Or I stay home
Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.
So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
That's going to hit people more, indeed.
As this excellent article from The Economist a while back put it, its all about cars and houses. The Red Wall is full of houses with 2 cars each, its not train sets. The mantra for keeping it needs to be cars and houses, cars and houses, cars and houses. Deal with those and you've got it.
Not sure that Wazza counts as the red wall. We know your personal views on developers building houses everywhere with no impediment. But red wall voters tend to not want that. So what you advocate is the opposite of what they will vote for. Labour are seen as the party of stupid planning applications, the Tories as the ones who oppose them and defend their communities.
Phil raises a good point. In my neck of the woods very few people commute by train. Unless you work in Leeds or close to one of the stations on the line there's no point. It's all cars, loads of two or three - or more - car households. Lots of fairly new cars, presumably the vast majority leased.
If you can't drive it's generally buses, which are ok but not as good as they were when I was a student and used them regularly 25 years ago.
Houses are being chucked up round here on brownfield sites which get a bit of grumbling but I think most people are glad to see regeneration. Greenfield areas are very different.
FWIW here in Yvette Cooper's constituency, beyond the Mail and Sun reading pensioners who yearn for a return of the Empire, I think there's a tacit, quiet feeling that Brexit isn't working and Levelling Up is a load of garbage. I think Cooper's safe next time. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my part.
Huge numbers drive and less get the bus - didn't say otherwise. But the notion that nobody uses the train doesn't match reality. Commuting into the big cities is a massive thing.
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
In the True North they don't have EPL football teams
Given how Manchester is closer to Guernsey than to where I live, I'm calling Manchester the True South.
If you define North and South an a whole-Britain basis then we go back to the days of talking about North Britain instead of Scotland. Often when people talk about "the North" they are actually talking about "the North of England".
And then there's the question as to whether to use geographical distances as a demarcation, or population numbers.
Well, yes, my post was mostly a mild provocation, but it's a useful exercise to shake us out of the rut of ordinary perception that language invariably creates. To call places like Manchester "the north" implies the place our language is located is somewhat south of that point. It leads to a faint dissonance. If the North is 300 miles south, where even am I?
I'm not making a big deal of it. I wouldn't have mentioned it other than for the fact we suddenly now seem to be talking about the "true north". That seems new to me.
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
In the True North they don't have EPL football teams
Yeah we have Rugby League teams around here.
A point which is perhaps more profound and significant than you appreciate.
The idea that the coalition that Boris built is available to anyone else in the Tory party is optimistic bordering on delusional. Boris reaches other voters in ways no other Tory has matched in a very long time, with the possible exception of Ruth Davidson.
Surely that should read "reached" rather than "reaches" ?
Is there evidence of Johnson retaining popularity in Red Wall* towns? He seems a popular as a turd in a swimming pool everywhere.
*I agree with @dixiedean that the Red Wall stereotype is not very accurate, I think voters there are not the fossils that some depict. Indeed not very different to other parts of the country.
I agree on the demographics but they had a tradition of not voting Tory or indeed anything but Labour. Boris broke that. I really doubt that anyone other than him can do it again, whatever his current popularity.
As Johnson cannot do that - seriously go talk to punters who are apoplectic about him "taking the piss" - then the alternative needs to be found.
I've made the case for Sunak, quietly putting himself about in places like Bishop Aukland to talk up how much cash he personally has given their new Tory MP. Red wallers voted for results, if he can deliver something and be associated with it, he is their best shot. Far more so than nobodies like Truss or remote southerners like Hunt.
Ever seen Sunak in action? He is like a tiny John Major, brilliant with people, exudes charm and energy. And unlike Major has the advantage of not having that voice and that face and Edwina as a mistress.
Major did win the 1992 election narrowly v Kinnock against the odds, just but then led the Tories to their lowest seat total since 1906 and their lowest voteshare since 1832 in 1997 v Blair.
So Sunak being Major is a mixed blessing
You're a few years younger than me so may not have the same awareness. The 1992 election campaign was a masterpiece by John Major. He had inherited a political mess, was well behind in the polls, and had to fight. Instead of big set-piece events like Theresa May hiding in a half-empty factory or Peppa hiding from Piers Morgan in that fridge, he went into town centres, set up his soapbox and started talking. Hecklers and all. Brilliant street politics from someone unexpected.
And it worked. John Major got the biggest ever vote tally. Bigger than Thatcher. Won re-election with a working majority in an election he was widely expected to lose. And you brush it aside.
Claim to be a Tory? You know nothing Essicks boy...
I remember that election, I even attended my first ever campaign rally for the Tories with Major in rural Gravesham.
Yes Major won narrowly and he deserves credit for that but it was on a higher turnout, the 41.9% voteshare he got in 1992 was lower than the 42.2% Thatcher had got in 1987 and lower than the 43.6% Boris got in 2019. A lot of the Tory vote was to keep out Kinnock and stop a 'Labour tax bombshell' as SO observes rather than a huge personal vote for Major. Remember the Tories still lost 40 seats in 1992 and after 1992 Major lost control of the party, failed to be decisive and led it to a landslide defeat against Blair in 1997
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
Where does "The South" begin? Try telling anyone from Manchester that they are not "true northerners" and if you are lucky they will laugh in your face...
Where? Edale. The Pennines are northern England. No Pennines at your latitude, not the north*
* yes ok I know the small bit north of the end of the Pennines is also north. Its a rule of thumb.
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
Considering how close you live to Manchester its amazing how dense that comment is.
Red wall voters in red wall seats commute into the big cities. By train.
Data says no.
Eyeballs and brain say yes. Hence the need to keep pouring money into capacity expansion into Manchester and Leeds by train, the promised Leeds metro, Leigh guided busway etc etc etc.
But again that only works if your job is office based and the office is sat in a town / city centre.
Otherwise no amount of public transport is going to get people to work.
It's not just about commuting. Many people travel into cities and towns for leisure and recreation as well. That's where all the big shops/theatres/cinemas/museums/etc are.
If the LDs win North Shropshire then Boris will likely face a VONC in the next few weeks, which he should still survive. Though judging by last night's vote over a 1/3 of Tory MPs would vote against him.
Otherwise he needs the booster programme to have proved a success by mid January next year and to have avoided another lockdown
If a third of Tory MPs vote against him how the hell does he survive a VONC ?
As 2/3 of Tory MPs would still vote for him and he would then be safe for a year from a further VONC.
Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.
So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
That's going to hit people more, indeed.
As this excellent article from The Economist a while back put it, its all about cars and houses. The Red Wall is full of houses with 2 cars each, its not train sets. The mantra for keeping it needs to be cars and houses, cars and houses, cars and houses. Deal with those and you've got it.
Not sure that Wazza counts as the red wall. We know your personal views on developers building houses everywhere with no impediment. But red wall voters tend to not want that. So what you advocate is the opposite of what they will vote for. Labour are seen as the party of stupid planning applications, the Tories as the ones who oppose them and defend their communities.
You're turning into @HYUFD - "pull up the drawbridge, I own my home, so screw everyone else." You'll be banging on about the evils of inheritance tax and the importance of inheritances next.
The point is that if you own your own home and own your own transport then that is the making of a Conservative voter.
Conservative voters might say they don't want more houses built as they want to protect their house prices, but then if that means their neighbours have no choice but to live in privately rented accommodation then their neighbours will be Labour voters. If new houses are built then the neighbours can also own their own home and transport, while they still own their own.
Ensuring everyone owns their own home and transport is the far most important thing, not having a few people that do then pandering to those NIMBY scumbags.
I am? I've moved to a village where every other house is building another house in their extended back garden - mine had it done already...
I am talking about red wall voters. You can sit here and say how they are wrong but that doesn't change how they think or vote.
They do not want their parks and gardens building on and they are voting to stop that happening. I also love the "private rented" = "Labour voter". You sound like one of the Tory activists who came up from dahn sarf on the Tory bus a few elections ago. Found himself arguing on the doorstep with repeated people that "but you can't be a Labour voter, look at your house, and your car!"
How they think or vote matters far more whether they themselves are a home owner, and whether they themselves can afford their own transport, than their neighbours.
Forget your anecdata from talking with whinging NIMBY scumbags and look at the actual evidence. Look at the data I supplied. The Red Wall (and places like Wazza too) has seen rampant house building in recent years and has the lowest house price to wage multiple in the country as a result. As a result people have been able to afford their own homes. As a result more people are now home owners. As a result more people vote Tory.
If the NIMBY shiteating scumbags were listened to then you'd have a few people happy to look at theoretical £££££££s on their house price while far more people would be living in privately rented accommodation and voting Labour.
Philip you are losing the plot. Calm down.
On the basis of your (flawed) analysis, 5% inflation and soon to be interest and mortgage rate rises are going to be a big headache for your new home owning Tory voters.
It's not that long ago that BoJo was trumpeting wage growth as the key success criterion. To be fair, those numbers looked good at the time...
(It would be interesting to run those numbers against government popularity over a few decades. Number of pounds in your pocket at the end of the month is one of those things that can't help but cut through with everyone.)
Indeed, and current levels of Tory polling were where I thought we would be AFTER the economic reality took hold not BEFORE.
Johnson better receive a hefty booster vaccines bounce, or the question becomes how low can the Tories go? Seeing Shaun Bailey partying during last year's lockdown when one missed a mortgage payment won't be a good look.
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
Where does "The South" begin? Try telling anyone from Manchester that they are not "true northerners" and if you are lucky they will laugh in your face...
Where? Edale. The Pennines are northern England. No Pennines at your latitude, not the north*
* yes ok I know the small bit north of the end of the Pennines is also north. Its a rule of thumb.
It is not really an issue for me. I no longer live in England
On the doom mongers science wankers saying that prior infection might not work again Omicron, it never sat right. COVID would have to act differently to every other virus in that it could evade t-cells and b-cells with just a handful of mutations to one part of it. That didn't make sense and I'm glad we're getting data from Spector about how well a Delta infection will protect from Omicron, I'd expect it to be above 90%.
Not as good as that:
18. What about the risk of reinfection?
1. People infected with #Delta = 40% relative risk of reinfection with #Omicron 2. People infected with Beta = 60% relative risk of infection with Omicron https://t.co/8kBK8p9lCg
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
In the True North they don't have EPL football teams
Given how Manchester is closer to Guernsey than to where I live, I'm calling Manchester the True South.
If you define North and South an a whole-Britain basis then we go back to the days of talking about North Britain instead of Scotland. Often when people talk about "the North" they are actually talking about "the North of England".
And then there's the question as to whether to use geographical distances as a demarcation, or population numbers.
Well, yes, my post was mostly a mild provocation, but it's a useful exercise to shake us out of the rut of ordinary perception that language invariably creates. To call places like Manchester "the north" implies the place our language is located is somewhat south of that point. It leads to a faint dissonance. If the North is 300 miles south, where even am I?
I'm not making a big deal of it. I wouldn't have mentioned it other than for the fact we suddenly now seem to be talking about the "true north". That seems new to me.
I grew up in Rochdale (as you may guess) so Manchester was the big city and was definitely up north. But it was clear that there wasn't much north below it - even Cheshire was seen as a bit snooty.
Then 15 years on Teesside and thats significantly more north. Then Geordie-Makem land. Then the long run through Northumbria.
Of course "the north" is "northern England". Scotland is the place where hoards of angry men in skirts wrestle other hoards of bitey Haggis monsters. And Nessie of course.
As suspected, prior infection by Delta gives very high level protection against Omicron. Professor Tim Spector will outline the final data soon but early indications are that a Delta infection in the last 6 months will protect from symptomatic Omicron.
Far from Omicron not caring about prior infections, it's highly likely that prior infections offer the best immunity overall, even more than three doses of vaccine.
Good thing 80% of our unvaccinated adults got Delta over the summer and autumn. Going into Omicron with an additional 8-10m unvaccinated, non-immune people would have meant a lockdown to protect the NHS from stupid people dying from their stupid decisions.
Have you done the maths on this? If Omicron is less deadly, then that is a counterbalance to the sharper healthcare usage. In other words, is it better to get the milder form with everyone else, or the deadlier form when capacity isn't as strained?
I asked this yesterday in a different form but nobody seemed to want to take it on.
From an individual perspective it may be better to get Omicron, from a public health perspective Omicron infects at a rate 4x faster than Delta, so even if the hospitalisation rate is halved, double the number of people end up in hospital and we still have ~3-4m adults with no vaccines and no prior infections, Omicron will find these people very quickly and put ~200k in hospital. If that number was 8-10m higher we'd expect up to 600k hospitalisations in a very short space of time.
So, what about the scenario I put last night and being taken seriously in research circles, where hospitalisation risk in the vaccinated goes up more in multiplier terms than infection risk (say 1% -> 4% of the unvaccinated hospitalisation risk, and 40 -> 70% of the infection risk), so the case hospitalisation rate goes up, even though Omicron is milder.
So, you have masses of cases, and the proportion of infected vaccinated people needing hospitals goes up (immune escape come with some severity uplift), even as the proportion of infected covid naive needing hospital goes down a bit (because it's milder). On an individual basis being vaccinated still gives massively better outcomes than not being, Omicron is milder, but societally you still end up in a worse position than with Delta.
This is clearly the risk being countered by boosters.
Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.
So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
That's going to hit people more, indeed.
As this excellent article from The Economist a while back put it, its all about cars and houses. The Red Wall is full of houses with 2 cars each, its not train sets. The mantra for keeping it needs to be cars and houses, cars and houses, cars and houses. Deal with those and you've got it.
Not sure that Wazza counts as the red wall. We know your personal views on developers building houses everywhere with no impediment. But red wall voters tend to not want that. So what you advocate is the opposite of what they will vote for. Labour are seen as the party of stupid planning applications, the Tories as the ones who oppose them and defend their communities.
Phil raises a good point. In my neck of the woods very few people commute by train. Unless you work in Leeds or close to one of the stations on the line there's no point. It's all cars, loads of two or three - or more - car households. Lots of fairly new cars, presumably the vast majority leased.
If you can't drive it's generally buses, which are ok but not as good as they were when I was a student and used them regularly 25 years ago.
Houses are being chucked up round here on brownfield sites which get a bit of grumbling but I think most people are glad to see regeneration. Greenfield areas are very different.
FWIW here in Yvette Cooper's constituency, beyond the Mail and Sun reading pensioners who yearn for a return of the Empire, I think there's a tacit, quiet feeling that Brexit isn't working and Levelling Up is a load of garbage. I think Cooper's safe next time. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my part.
Huge numbers drive and less get the bus - didn't say otherwise. But the notion that nobody uses the train doesn't match reality. Commuting into the big cities is a massive thing.
I went into Leeds everyday on the train for a decade. If you study or work in Leeds yes it is a massive thing. People will also get the train in to Leeds on a weekend for a piss up. And of course the numbers add up, with a dribble coming in from each town or village from a 40 mile or so radius. Pre-Covid Leeds station was really busy, unpleasantly so at peak times. But the vast majority of people don't use trains. I wish more did, but they don't. The vast majority of people use cars. And I don't see that changing, sadly.
What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.
Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.
Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
You've never been to Manchester or Leeds then?
How are Manchester or Leeds "Red Wall"? They're cities, they're the exception they're not the true north.
Considering how close you live to Manchester its amazing how dense that comment is.
Red wall voters in red wall seats commute into the big cities. By train.
Data says no.
Eyeballs and brain say yes. Hence the need to keep pouring money into capacity expansion into Manchester and Leeds by train, the promised Leeds metro, Leigh guided busway etc etc etc.
Leythers don't want a "guided busway". It's ace but very little used. They want a train station like everywhere else. And Independence from Wigan. Leythexit as it were with their own council. 2 things which psychological mark you out as a "proper town". Those 2 hyperlocal issues were what swung the seat over the edge. I can't see how they'll get either.
Comments
Don’t use the camera, and especially not the microphone, on your laptop for web calls, especially not if they’re televised and being compared to a professional studio setup. And lights, dont forget the lights.
Didn’t the Speaker give everyone a WFH allowance when Parliament started sitting remotely? £500 should be enough for something decent enough, and you can do a basic podcast studio for £1k or so in hardware.
Otherwise he needs the booster programme to have proved a success by mid January next year and to have avoided another lockdown
The point is that if you own your own home and own your own transport then that is the making of a Conservative voter.
Conservative voters might say they don't want more houses built as they want to protect their house prices, but then if that means their neighbours have no choice but to live in privately rented accommodation then their neighbours will be Labour voters. If new houses are built then the neighbours can also own their own home and transport, while they still own their own.
Ensuring everyone owns their own home and transport is the far most important thing, not having a few people that do then pandering to those NIMBY scumbags.
Notice how under the radar this has gone. "RIFT ON DOWNING STREET" headlines have not appeared after the unexplained abstention of the Chancellor. It feels like massive disagreement is priced in - Peppa goes to an emergency '22 meeting faced with a big rebellion, pleads, and comes out having persuaded another 20 to vote against him.
So why would the Chancellor not find a reason not to be there? That he didn't for "nazi Germany" will have been noticed by the mouth-foamers in the Tory ranks...
No extra rapid Covid tests for pharmacies as cities run out
Millions of kits are sitting in warehouses across the country, but officials say it is ‘not possible logistically’ to increase supplies
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/14/pharmacies-told-cannot-have-extra-rapid-covid-tests-even-though/ (£££)
Government advice is to take a test before going out or entertaining others!
So Sunak being Major is a mixed blessing
But I agree that fuel is the big one - it's the only price that is immediately obvious.
Will particularly hurt as people travel all over the UK visiting relatives/friends for the first time in two years.
I am talking about red wall voters. You can sit here and say how they are wrong but that doesn't change how they think or vote.
They do not want their parks and gardens building on and they are voting to stop that happening. I also love the "private rented" = "Labour voter". You sound like one of the Tory activists who came up from dahn sarf on the Tory bus a few elections ago. Found himself arguing on the doorstep with repeated people that "but you can't be a Labour voter, look at your house, and your car!"
It seems like pairing is the logical explanation.
They appear to be on a weekly doubling curve for deaths, that seems bad. We'll know more on Friday I think
Red wall voters in red wall seats commute into the big cities. By train.
In Marden, in Kent, a genius campaign led to decreasing the size of a new batch of houses being built*. So in the middle of the countryside, boxes that make you feel cramped looking at them. Complete with patio gardens, with several fence fires already from the fact that there isn't enough space to safely barbecue in them!
Net result - reduced the value of the old houses that over look them. According to a local estate agent.
But hey, the people per sq foot number is awwwwwwwesome!
*Pressure on the council to build houses. Pressure on the council to reduce the space for the estates of houses. Result was unexpected!!
And pairing doesn't matter when Labour and Tories are voting the same way.
So even if Reeves is paired with Sunak no Tory whip is going to complain about Reeves voting and Sunak not voting when Reeves voted the same way Sunak would have done.
Forget your anecdata from talking with whinging NIMBY scumbags and look at the actual evidence. Look at the data I supplied. The Red Wall (and places like Wazza too) has seen rampant house building in recent years and has the lowest house price to wage multiple in the country as a result. As a result people have been able to afford their own homes. As a result more people are now home owners. As a result more people vote Tory.
If the NIMBY shiteating scumbags were listened to then you'd have a few people happy to look at theoretical £££££££s on their house price while far more people would be living in privately rented accommodation and voting Labour.
And it worked. John Major got the biggest ever vote tally. Bigger than Thatcher. Won re-election with a working majority in an election he was widely expected to lose. And you brush it aside.
Claim to be a Tory? You know nothing Essicks boy...
If new development is to take place it should be in brown belt first. As the chart PT showed demonstrates most voters in the redwall already own a property anyway, it is in big cities, especially London where home ownership is lowest and where affordable homes to buy are most needed
https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1471033799559557121
We were out last night and were literally the only table except for 3 guests of the hotel in their restaurant.
He insists that it was not authorised by the party.
Wonder how the caterers got past the front door… https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1471035310339416065/photo/1
As example, (I live in a rural-ish area) if I want to go to the two nearest big towns there's a bus which runs from one to the other every half-hour. However, if I want to go to the two smaller neighbouring communities, 10 minutes or so's drive away I have to use the big town bus and get a connection. Takes at least an hour.
“Ooooh me I don’t mind wearing a mask in Tescos” easily folds into “shutting schools is the moral thing to do” so long as you have the right steps and signals along the way.
I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if Johnson goes on telly to announce new restrictions while Parliament is in recess. Because he’s a fucking coward and a lair. But you’ve still not woken up to this. It would be ok if I really thought the MPs would vote him out, but I don’t think they will. There’s 100 of them on the govt gravy train, mostly not by merit, and half the backbenchers are craven.
I'm sure he'll have a good explanation, but the coincidence is just too convenient to be that.
Data SAY no ...
Far from Omicron not caring about prior infections, it's highly likely that prior infections offer the best immunity overall, even more than three doses of vaccine.
Good thing 80% of our unvaccinated adults got Delta over the summer and autumn. Going into Omicron with an additional 8-10m unvaccinated, non-immune people would have meant a lockdown to protect the NHS from stupid people dying from their stupid decisions.
Previously HYUFD you have accused me of wanting rid of Boris because he is a winner. This isn't true. I want rid of him for a lot of other reasons. Right or wrong I fear Sunak as a political opponent more, but I also think he would be a better PM. Country before politics.
If you can't drive it's generally buses, which are ok but not as good as they were when I was a student and used them regularly 25 years ago.
Houses are being chucked up round here on brownfield sites which get a bit of grumbling but I think most people are glad to see regeneration. Greenfield areas are very different.
FWIW here in Yvette Cooper's constituency, beyond the Mail and Sun reading pensioners who yearn for a return of the Empire, I think there's a tacit, quiet feeling that Brexit isn't working and Levelling Up is a load of garbage. I think Cooper's safe next time. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my part.
If you think that practical EVs are in any way accessible to most, then I'm afraid you're as out-of-touch as Boris Johnson.
I think they'll get there, but not for a few years yet.
On the basis of your (flawed) analysis, 5% inflation and soon to be interest and mortgage rate rises are going to be a big headache for your new home owning Tory voters.
If Omicron is less deadly, then that is a counterbalance to the sharper healthcare usage. In other words, is it better to get the milder form with everyone else, or the deadlier form when capacity isn't as strained?
I asked this yesterday in a different form but nobody seemed to want to take it on.
And then there's the question as to whether to use geographical distances as a demarcation, or population numbers.
18. What about the risk of reinfection?
1. People infected with #Delta = 40% relative risk of reinfection with #Omicron
2. People infected with Beta = 60% relative risk of infection with Omicron https://t.co/8kBK8p9lCg
https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1470712665072971778?t=5ol7Ol9MxkgCvyCHtAeTkA&s=19
I can see that hospital admissions are climbing in London, but I've no idea what rate is okay, and what is too fast.
My anecdata is what is happening. The surge in Tory and independent councillors and now Tory MPs has a direct link to the "rampant house building" which is being done by Labour councils who the government are forcing into it.
People do not want "rampant house building". So they vote against the people they think are responsible and instead elect people who say they will stop it.
Being all in favour of personal liberties I would have thought democratic free will would be something you support. Not branding your fellow travellers "NIMBY shit-eating scumbags"
To call places like Manchester "the north" implies the place our language is located is somewhat south of that point. It leads to a faint dissonance. If the North is 300 miles south, where even am I?
I'm not making a big deal of it. I wouldn't have mentioned it other than for the fact we suddenly now seem to be talking about the "true north". That seems new to me.
Not sure where the transition point is between early adopter and being part of the mainstream rush, but it's close. National Grid might have less time to get the grid ready to supply all the additional required electricity than they think.
To be fair, those numbers looked good at the time...
https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/1471022496719724546?s=20
(It would be interesting to run those numbers against government popularity over a few decades. Number of pounds in your pocket at the end of the month is one of those things that can't help but cut through with everyone.)
From my dim and distant memory I'm sure our t-cell numbers reduce as time goes by which means when the reinfection occurs the body starts attacking the virus from a weaker starting point.
@HelenRushby1
Replying to
@CarolineLucas
Sorry but I can’t agree. You should have voted for vaccine passports. We live in a country where a third of people voted for Brexit. They cannot be trusted to act responsibility. The only way for sensible people to be safe going out is to enforce vaccine passports. Or I stay home
https://twitter.com/HelenRushby1/status/1470848748297367561
Otherwise no amount of public transport is going to get people to work.
January in the US is going to be a real world experiment in vaccine, booster, unvaxxed, prior infection effectiveness vs Omicron.
Yes Major won narrowly and he deserves credit for that but it was on a higher turnout, the 41.9% voteshare he got in 1992 was lower than the 42.2% Thatcher had got in 1987 and lower than the 43.6% Boris got in 2019. A lot of the Tory vote was to keep out Kinnock and stop a 'Labour tax bombshell' as SO observes rather than a huge personal vote for Major. Remember the Tories still lost 40 seats in 1992 and after 1992 Major lost control of the party, failed to be decisive and led it to a landslide defeat against Blair in 1997
* yes ok I know the small bit north of the end of the Pennines is also north. Its a rule of thumb.
Johnson better receive a hefty booster vaccines bounce, or the question becomes how low can the Tories go? Seeing Shaun Bailey partying during last year's lockdown when one missed a mortgage payment won't be a good look.
Hope over science. Pray the pox away!
Then 15 years on Teesside and thats significantly more north. Then Geordie-Makem land. Then the long run through Northumbria.
Of course "the north" is "northern England". Scotland is the place where hoards of angry men in skirts wrestle other hoards of bitey Haggis monsters. And Nessie of course.
So, you have masses of cases, and the proportion of infected vaccinated people needing hospitals goes up (immune escape come with some severity uplift), even as the proportion of infected covid naive needing hospital goes down a bit (because it's milder). On an individual basis being vaccinated still gives massively better outcomes than not being, Omicron is milder, but societally you still end up in a worse position than with Delta.
This is clearly the risk being countered by boosters.
They want a train station like everywhere else. And Independence from Wigan. Leythexit as it were with their own council.
2 things which psychological mark you out as a "proper town".
Those 2 hyperlocal issues were what swung the seat over the edge. I can't see how they'll get either.