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A 2022 Johnson exit surges in the betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageA 2022 Johnson exit surges in the betting – politicalbetting.com

After the huge rebellion of Tory MPs last night against BJ’s Covid plans the chances of BJ going early, perhaps next year appears increasingly likely. That is how punters are seeing it as the betdata.io betting chart shows.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Gone in the morning some time after Christmas, he will be gone in the morning some time after Christmas...gonnnne in the moooorrrrrrrninnnng Jan or Feb, he'll be gone in the morning definitely before the summer.

    "The battle for North Shropshire
    The by-election is a referendum on Boris Johnson's leadership
    BY TANYA GOLD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/12/the-battle-for-north-shropshire/
  • - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Third rate, like Johnson
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    2023 look like the value, at 8/1 or thereabouts.

    He’d be in more trouble, if the Opposition had voted against the new Covid restrictions last night.
  • But is 2023 not too close to the next UK GE?

    If they’re going to switch to Sunak, Truss or Hunt they’re better doing it soon, to give the new boy or girl time to establish themselves before facing the electorate.
  • BournvilleBournville Posts: 125
    edited December 2021

    But is 2023 not too close to the next UK GE?

    If they’re going to switch to Sunak, Truss or Hunt they’re better doing it soon, to give the new boy or girl time to establish themselves before facing the electorate.

    Bear in mind Tory MPs don't just have to force a leadership election, they have to win it; and although there are some Tory MPs in the Red Wall that will be flushed out if Johnson destroys the party, they're outnumbered by MPs on the government payroll and complacent southern/western MPs with ultrasafe seats who will be fine no matter what. The argument that all they have to do is wait Johnson out is a lot more attractive to MPs who won't lose their seats and are too cowardly to risk Johnson's short term temper tantrums. So even if enough MPs are ballsy enough to confidence vote Johnson next year, I suspect they'll lose it and he'll continue to stagger on.

    I completely agree this attitude will be disastrous in the medium term, and the Tories are going to be in very deep trouble at the next election, but I think you're overestimating their rationality.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911

    - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

    Delivery of levelling up was required, and it has been stopped rather than delivering even baby-steps.

    Backsides will be kicked, and the Tories risk losing their new voting coalition for good.
  • Sandpit said:

    2023 look like the value, at 8/1 or thereabouts.

    He’d be in more trouble, if the Opposition had voted against the new Covid restrictions last night.

    No I don't think so. That would have deflected from the rebellion on his own benches. And, besides, Labour did what they felt and believed to be right rather than playing silly games with peoples' lives.

    The real reason why Mike is right is Johnson. Boris Johnson is a liability. An appalling disorganised lying incompetent. Those of us who saw his mayorality where he made repeated mistakes won't be surprised. He was a terrible choice to be PM even in a time of calm. As a PM in a storm the Conservatives could hardly have chosen a worse MP to be their leader.

    So that's why he'll be ousted. He is useless.
  • No. What should they have done? Gone back to whoever they'd stolen the debit card from, with a proposal to create a post-win lottery syndicate? That way, the card-owner gets (say) £2 million and the thieves £1 million each, rather than no-one being paid any winnings.
  • Sandpit said:

    2023 look like the value, at 8/1 or thereabouts.

    He’d be in more trouble, if the Opposition had voted against the new Covid restrictions last night.

    Last night's scorecard is the Daily Mirror forced one medium-profile resignation (Shaun Bailey, the former Mayoral candidate and Tory apparatchik) whereas Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition put Loyalty above Opposition.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    More concerning, is how the shop seemingly accepted a payment, a reasonable amount for a small grocer, on the basis of a customer with a card number scribbled on his hand?

    The two homeless men, should of course have got their ducks in a row before trying to claim the prize - but many people in that situation find thinking straight difficult in the first place.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139

    No. What should they have done? Gone back to whoever they'd stolen the debit card from, with a proposal to create a post-win lottery syndicate? That way, the card-owner gets (say) £2 million and the thieves £1 million each, rather than no-one being paid any winnings.
    Surely all they would have needed to do was create a bank account (although that might be difficult for two homeless ex-criminals?). Or use an acquaintances account.

    It depends how much checking the National Lottery do. I can imagine if the scratchcard was purchased using a card for a 'Mr Joe Smith', and the lottery is claimed by a 'Mr F Witt' using an account belonging to 'Mr P Ratt', it might throw up warning signals.

    In fact: if the scratchcard is purchased using a card belonging to one person, yet the win is claimed by another, would they investigate? Who 'owns' the scratchcard?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    MattW said:

    - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

    Delivery of levelling up was required, and it has been stopped rather than delivering even baby-steps.

    Backsides will be kicked, and the Tories risk losing their new voting coalition for good.
    Having persuaded large numbers of people to back the Tories in traditionally Labour areas last time out, the government has to deliver something tangible in this area before the next election, unless they want these new voters to go back to sitting on their hands.

    The appointment of Gove to run DCLG (or whatever they’re called this week) showed that the PM is serious about it, but there need to be tangible results quickly.

    The first thing they need to remember, is that most of the working classes use cars as transport - and most of them are old cars. They don’t see trains and EVs as a priority, quite the opposite.
  • The problem here is that Johnson now has no reasonable exit strategy. His "reputation" as a popular voice of the people is completely shot. He might be able to depend on a pity column at the Telegraph, but that's it - after he leaves Downing Street, his political career is dead, his successor won't want to continue whatever we can define as Johnsonism, and he will be relegated to the after dinner circuit for the rest of his life.

    So he will cling on no matter what happens, until Tory MPs force him out. And if we've learnt anything from May, it's that Tory MPs are cowards; they won't force the confrontation until it's almost too late. I don't think 2022 is too late, I reckon the Tories know they can claw it back in 2023/24. So unlikely to be a leadership election, unlikely for Boris to go of his own accord, 2023 seems like an excellent value bet.

    I'd (pleasurably) anticipated BJ making such an arse of things so as to ruin the golden ticket to the lifestyle he feels he richly deserves, but I wonder if the Tory party might contrive an exit scenario here he can retain some shreds of his reputation and they put a stop to the blood loss - weary Hercules takes his rest after his labours on behalf of the nation kind of bullshit?

    Contra to that there appears to be a startling lack of personal affection for and loyalty to BJ, and your other point re. the Tories' rationality problem also applies.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

    Delivery of levelling up was required, and it has been stopped rather than delivering even baby-steps.

    Backsides will be kicked, and the Tories risk losing their new voting coalition for good.
    Having persuaded large numbers of people to back the Tories in traditionally Labour areas last time out, the government has to deliver something tangible in this area before the next election, unless they want these new voters to go back to sitting on their hands.

    The appointment of Gove to run DCLG (or whatever they’re called this week) showed that the PM is serious about it, but there need to be tangible results quickly.

    The first thing they need to remember, is that most of the working classes use cars as transport - and most of them are old cars. They don’t see trains and EVs as a priority, quite the opposite.
    This is not accurate. The Tory red wall heartlands are full of new Audis and BMWs.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

    Delivery of levelling up was required, and it has been stopped rather than delivering even baby-steps.

    Backsides will be kicked, and the Tories risk losing their new voting coalition for good.
    Having persuaded large numbers of people to back the Tories in traditionally Labour areas last time out, the government has to deliver something tangible in this area before the next election, unless they want these new voters to go back to sitting on their hands.

    The appointment of Gove to run DCLG (or whatever they’re called this week) showed that the PM is serious about it, but there need to be tangible results quickly.

    The first thing they need to remember, is that most of the working classes use cars as transport - and most of them are old cars. They don’t see trains and EVs as a priority, quite the opposite.
    This is not accurate. The Tory red wall heartlands are full of new Audis and BMWs.
    Sure, but most of them will be company cars or leased - where an Audi costs about £20 a month more than a VW, which costs £20 a month more than a Skoda, and they’re all actually the same car underneath.

    My point was more that the sort of transport solutions that are loved by civil servants in London, are not those desired by the occupants of the Red Wall towns.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

    Delivery of levelling up was required, and it has been stopped rather than delivering even baby-steps.

    Backsides will be kicked, and the Tories risk losing their new voting coalition for good.
    Having persuaded large numbers of people to back the Tories in traditionally Labour areas last time out, the government has to deliver something tangible in this area before the next election, unless they want these new voters to go back to sitting on their hands.

    The appointment of Gove to run DCLG (or whatever they’re called this week) showed that the PM is serious about it, but there need to be tangible results quickly.

    The first thing they need to remember, is that most of the working classes use cars as transport - and most of them are old cars. They don’t see trains and EVs as a priority, quite the opposite.
    This is not accurate. The Tory red wall heartlands are full of new Audis and BMWs.
    Sure, but most of them will be company cars or leased - where an Audi costs about £20 a month more than a VW, which costs £20 a month more than a Skoda, and they’re all actually the same car underneath.

    My point was more that the sort of transport solutions that are loved by civil servants in London, are not those desired by the occupants of the Red Wall towns.
    I don’t think its that simple. In fact I think that’s just lazy commentary. Up here they’re building a new railway line from Ashington to Newcastle through Blyth etc and its fairly popular. People hate driving into Newcastle. Conversely they are adding a new lane to the A1 around Newcastle and people are generally in uproar about the delays and years of roadworks. Newcastle of course in itself is not “red wall” but its workers come from the red wall towns in Durham and Northumberland.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757

    But is 2023 not too close to the next UK GE?

    If they’re going to switch to Sunak, Truss or Hunt they’re better doing it soon, to give the new boy or girl time to establish themselves before facing the electorate.

    To an extent Stuart isn't that the Conservatives best bet, an election during the next leader's honeymoon?

    The flip side to that is the longer they leave the accident prone Johnson in place the more trashed the Conservative brand. I am sure that was Starmer's thinking last night. A cornered, wounded dog is prone to the irrational.
  • PMQs might be fun. Or not, with all parties making a last pitch to the good folk of North Shropshire.
  • Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

    Delivery of levelling up was required, and it has been stopped rather than delivering even baby-steps.

    Backsides will be kicked, and the Tories risk losing their new voting coalition for good.
    Having persuaded large numbers of people to back the Tories in traditionally Labour areas last time out, the government has to deliver something tangible in this area before the next election, unless they want these new voters to go back to sitting on their hands.

    The appointment of Gove to run DCLG (or whatever they’re called this week) showed that the PM is serious about it, but there need to be tangible results quickly.

    The first thing they need to remember, is that most of the working classes use cars as transport - and most of them are old cars. They don’t see trains and EVs as a priority, quite the opposite.
    But how on earth does one deliver “levelling up” quickly?? By definition, it has to be a long-term process, otherwise it’s the opposite of conservatism: revolution.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

    Delivery of levelling up was required, and it has been stopped rather than delivering even baby-steps.

    Backsides will be kicked, and the Tories risk losing their new voting coalition for good.
    Having persuaded large numbers of people to back the Tories in traditionally Labour areas last time out, the government has to deliver something tangible in this area before the next election, unless they want these new voters to go back to sitting on their hands.

    The appointment of Gove to run DCLG (or whatever they’re called this week) showed that the PM is serious about it, but there need to be tangible results quickly.

    The first thing they need to remember, is that most of the working classes use cars as transport - and most of them are old cars. They don’t see trains and EVs as a priority, quite the opposite.
    This is not accurate. The Tory red wall heartlands are full of new Audis and BMWs.
    Sure, but most of them will be company cars or leased - where an Audi costs about £20 a month more than a VW, which costs £20 a month more than a Skoda, and they’re all actually the same car underneath.

    My point was more that the sort of transport solutions that are loved by civil servants in London, are not those desired by the occupants of the Red Wall towns.
    I don’t think its that simple. In fact I think that’s just lazy commentary. Up here they’re building a new railway line from Ashington to Newcastle through Blyth etc and its fairly popular. People hate driving into Newcastle. Conversely they are adding a new lane to the A1 around Newcastle and people are generally in uproar about the delays and years of roadworks. Newcastle of course in itself is not “red wall” but its workers come from the red wall towns in Durham and Northumberland.
    Why do people hate driving into Newcastle though? If the issue is congested roads and lack of parking, then is the preferred solution not addressing the pinch points and more parking facilities, rather than buses and trains?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    ...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

    Delivery of levelling up was required, and it has been stopped rather than delivering even baby-steps.

    Backsides will be kicked, and the Tories risk losing their new voting coalition for good.
    Having persuaded large numbers of people to back the Tories in traditionally Labour areas last time out, the government has to deliver something tangible in this area before the next election, unless they want these new voters to go back to sitting on their hands.

    The appointment of Gove to run DCLG (or whatever they’re called this week) showed that the PM is serious about it, but there need to be tangible results quickly.

    The first thing they need to remember, is that most of the working classes use cars as transport - and most of them are old cars. They don’t see trains and EVs as a priority, quite the opposite.
    This is not accurate. The Tory red wall heartlands are full of new Audis and BMWs.
    Sure, but most of them will be company cars or leased - where an Audi costs about £20 a month more than a VW, which costs £20 a month more than a Skoda, and they’re all actually the same car underneath.

    My point was more that the sort of transport solutions that are loved by civil servants in London, are not those desired by the occupants of the Red Wall towns.
    I don’t think its that simple. In fact I think that’s just lazy commentary. Up here they’re building a new railway line from Ashington to Newcastle through Blyth etc and its fairly popular. People hate driving into Newcastle. Conversely they are adding a new lane to the A1 around Newcastle and people are generally in uproar about the delays and years of roadworks. Newcastle of course in itself is not “red wall” but its workers come from the red wall towns in Durham and Northumberland.
    Why do people hate driving into Newcastle though? If the issue is congested roads and lack of parking, then is the preferred solution not addressing the pinch points and more parking facilities, rather than buses and trains?
    There is only so much you can do with narrow streets and legally enforceable maximum pollution levels.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    Morning everybody. Unseasonably warm. And miserably cloudy!
    A thought on the future.
    There's a Vote of Confidence among Tory MP's. Johnson loses, but not by much. In the resulting Leadership election he stands again and comes second, then when the members in the party at large vote, he wins. After all, he seems to have retained his base there.
    He is then therefore the elected Leader of the Party, in whom the party's MP's have 'no confidence'.
    And, TBH, he has, I suggest, the chutzpah to do it.

    What happens then?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108

    PMQs might be fun. Or not, with all parties making a last pitch to the good folk of North Shropshire.

    Do we get a PMQ's today? I thought Parliament had risen.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    That's a thoroughly unconvincing cartoon. No way is Boris Johnson a wise man.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    edited December 2021

    PMQs might be fun. Or not, with all parties making a last pitch to the good folk of North Shropshire.

    Starmer having decided not to fight that, he has a free hit here.

    If he wants to be especially wounding he could go with 'I lead my party, he can't even follow his.'
  • The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs grew 4.6% in the year to November 2021.

    This is up from the 3.8% growth in the year to October 2021 http://ow.ly/sL4l50Hb1Wk


    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1471012626188673029?s=20
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

    Delivery of levelling up was required, and it has been stopped rather than delivering even baby-steps.

    Backsides will be kicked, and the Tories risk losing their new voting coalition for good.
    Having persuaded large numbers of people to back the Tories in traditionally Labour areas last time out, the government has to deliver something tangible in this area before the next election, unless they want these new voters to go back to sitting on their hands.

    The appointment of Gove to run DCLG (or whatever they’re called this week) showed that the PM is serious about it, but there need to be tangible results quickly.

    The first thing they need to remember, is that most of the working classes use cars as transport - and most of them are old cars. They don’t see trains and EVs as a priority, quite the opposite.
    This is not accurate. The Tory red wall heartlands are full of new Audis and BMWs.
    Sure, but most of them will be company cars or leased - where an Audi costs about £20 a month more than a VW, which costs £20 a month more than a Skoda, and they’re all actually the same car underneath.

    My point was more that the sort of transport solutions that are loved by civil servants in London, are not those desired by the occupants of the Red Wall towns.
    I don’t think its that simple. In fact I think that’s just lazy commentary. Up here they’re building a new railway line from Ashington to Newcastle through Blyth etc and its fairly popular. People hate driving into Newcastle. Conversely they are adding a new lane to the A1 around Newcastle and people are generally in uproar about the delays and years of roadworks. Newcastle of course in itself is not “red wall” but its workers come from the red wall towns in Durham and Northumberland.
    Why do people hate driving into Newcastle though? If the issue is congested roads and lack of parking, then is the preferred solution not addressing the pinch points and more parking facilities, rather than buses and trains?
    There is only so much you can do with narrow streets and legally enforceable maximum pollution levels.
    And I don't think people like driving into towns for work all that much. Trains can be quite sociable. In my youth it wasn't uncommon to see card schools on trains from Southend and my son, having broken up with his girl-friend the night before, managed to arrange a date with a girl that he regularly saw on the train the next morning!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs grew 4.6% in the year to November 2021.

    This is up from the 3.8% growth in the year to October 2021 http://ow.ly/sL4l50Hb1Wk


    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1471012626188673029?s=20

    Perfect Storm developing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    No. What should they have done? Gone back to whoever they'd stolen the debit card from, with a proposal to create a post-win lottery syndicate? That way, the card-owner gets (say) £2 million and the thieves £1 million each, rather than no-one being paid any winnings.
    Surely all they would have needed to do was create a bank account (although that might be difficult for two homeless ex-criminals?). Or use an acquaintances account.

    It depends how much checking the National Lottery do. I can imagine if the scratchcard was purchased using a card for a 'Mr Joe Smith', and the lottery is claimed by a 'Mr F Witt' using an account belonging to 'Mr P Ratt', it might throw up warning signals.

    In fact: if the scratchcard is purchased using a card belonging to one person, yet the win is claimed by another, would they investigate? Who 'owns' the scratchcard?
    Some of these people are just thick. I particularly enjoyed the story of the man who stole a radio, and found a fault. He took it back to the shop and demanded a replacement. As he didn't have a receipt they refused, so he reported them to the police. The police asked him why he didn't have a receipt and he said, 'because I stole it...'
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Dr Foxy, does make me wonder if the Bank of England should've increased rates.

    The PCP needs to get rid of Johnson.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited December 2021

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

    Delivery of levelling up was required, and it has been stopped rather than delivering even baby-steps.

    Backsides will be kicked, and the Tories risk losing their new voting coalition for good.
    Having persuaded large numbers of people to back the Tories in traditionally Labour areas last time out, the government has to deliver something tangible in this area before the next election, unless they want these new voters to go back to sitting on their hands.

    The appointment of Gove to run DCLG (or whatever they’re called this week) showed that the PM is serious about it, but there need to be tangible results quickly.

    The first thing they need to remember, is that most of the working classes use cars as transport - and most of them are old cars. They don’t see trains and EVs as a priority, quite the opposite.
    This is not accurate. The Tory red wall heartlands are full of new Audis and BMWs.
    Sure, but most of them will be company cars or leased - where an Audi costs about £20 a month more than a VW, which costs £20 a month more than a Skoda, and they’re all actually the same car underneath.

    My point was more that the sort of transport solutions that are loved by civil servants in London, are not those desired by the occupants of the Red Wall towns.
    I don’t think its that simple. In fact I think that’s just lazy commentary. Up here they’re building a new railway line from Ashington to Newcastle through Blyth etc and its fairly popular. People hate driving into Newcastle. Conversely they are adding a new lane to the A1 around Newcastle and people are generally in uproar about the delays and years of roadworks. Newcastle of course in itself is not “red wall” but its workers come from the red wall towns in Durham and Northumberland.
    The suggestion that the Red Wall and similar is car only doesn't stand up imo.

    Here, for example, is where modern light rail / tram systems are in the UK.


  • PMQs might be fun. Or not, with all parties making a last pitch to the good folk of North Shropshire.

    Do we get a PMQ's today? I thought Parliament had risen.
    Hansard and the BBC think it is on.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59609609
  • PMQs might be fun. Or not, with all parties making a last pitch to the good folk of North Shropshire.

    Do we get a PMQ's today? I thought Parliament had risen.
    Hansard and the BBC think it is on.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59609609
    As does the Parliament TV website:

    https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/1224d909-61ff-4c69-9b8c-d66d9c69020a
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    PMQs might be fun. Or not, with all parties making a last pitch to the good folk of North Shropshire.

    Do we get a PMQ's today? I thought Parliament had risen.
    Hansard and the BBC think it is on.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59609609
    Is Johnson on paternity leave though?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    ydoethur said:

    No. What should they have done? Gone back to whoever they'd stolen the debit card from, with a proposal to create a post-win lottery syndicate? That way, the card-owner gets (say) £2 million and the thieves £1 million each, rather than no-one being paid any winnings.
    Surely all they would have needed to do was create a bank account (although that might be difficult for two homeless ex-criminals?). Or use an acquaintances account.

    It depends how much checking the National Lottery do. I can imagine if the scratchcard was purchased using a card for a 'Mr Joe Smith', and the lottery is claimed by a 'Mr F Witt' using an account belonging to 'Mr P Ratt', it might throw up warning signals.

    In fact: if the scratchcard is purchased using a card belonging to one person, yet the win is claimed by another, would they investigate? Who 'owns' the scratchcard?
    Some of these people are just thick. I particularly enjoyed the story of the man who stole a radio, and found a fault. He took it back to the shop and demanded a replacement. As he didn't have a receipt they refused, so he reported them to the police. The police asked him why he didn't have a receipt and he said, 'because I stole it...'
    My favourite (I think it is from Stephen Pile's "Book of heroic failures") was the bank robber who held up a bank. Because his voice might be recognised, he wrote down his demands on a piece of paper. He got the money and scarpered.

    His address was on the back of the piece of paper...

    I think there was another where the robber left his dog outside the bank, then went back to get it later.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    edited December 2021

    PMQs might be fun. Or not, with all parties making a last pitch to the good folk of North Shropshire.

    Do we get a PMQ's today? I thought Parliament had risen.
    Hansard and the BBC think it is on.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59609609
    Oh well. Wrong again.
    Thought there had been something about Parliament rising this Tuesday. Must be next. However, as I desperately try to save face, isn't Johnson on paternity leave, so won't be at PMQ's?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    ydoethur said:

    No. What should they have done? Gone back to whoever they'd stolen the debit card from, with a proposal to create a post-win lottery syndicate? That way, the card-owner gets (say) £2 million and the thieves £1 million each, rather than no-one being paid any winnings.
    Surely all they would have needed to do was create a bank account (although that might be difficult for two homeless ex-criminals?). Or use an acquaintances account.

    It depends how much checking the National Lottery do. I can imagine if the scratchcard was purchased using a card for a 'Mr Joe Smith', and the lottery is claimed by a 'Mr F Witt' using an account belonging to 'Mr P Ratt', it might throw up warning signals.

    In fact: if the scratchcard is purchased using a card belonging to one person, yet the win is claimed by another, would they investigate? Who 'owns' the scratchcard?
    Some of these people are just thick. I particularly enjoyed the story of the man who stole a radio, and found a fault. He took it back to the shop and demanded a replacement. As he didn't have a receipt they refused, so he reported them to the police. The police asked him why he didn't have a receipt and he said, 'because I stole it...'
    My favourite (I think it is from Stephen Pile's "Book of heroic failures") was the bank robber who held up a bank. Because his voice might be recognised, he wrote down his demands on a piece of paper. He got the money and scarpered.

    His address was on the back of the piece of paper...

    I think there was another where the robber left his dog outside the bank, then went back to get it later.
    I think the police just ordered the dog to go 'home' and followed it.

    I love The Book of Heroic Failures. A work of comic genius which as Pile himself noted is ironic given the subject.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    Which reminds me of a more recent story from Simon Mayo's 'Confessions' slot.

    A woman takes her young kids into the bank one Saturday. She leaves them at a table as she queues. As she leaves, she notices they've been writing on the back of paying in slips.

    Later on, she hears that an elderly gentleman was arrested for trying to rob the bank. One of her kids innocently says he wrote something like: "This is a hold-up. Give me all your money." As a young kid might do.

    Obviously the elderly gentleman used that slip without noticing...
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 5,411
    edited December 2021

    ydoethur said:

    No. What should they have done? Gone back to whoever they'd stolen the debit card from, with a proposal to create a post-win lottery syndicate? That way, the card-owner gets (say) £2 million and the thieves £1 million each, rather than no-one being paid any winnings.
    Surely all they would have needed to do was create a bank account (although that might be difficult for two homeless ex-criminals?). Or use an acquaintances account.

    It depends how much checking the National Lottery do. I can imagine if the scratchcard was purchased using a card for a 'Mr Joe Smith', and the lottery is claimed by a 'Mr F Witt' using an account belonging to 'Mr P Ratt', it might throw up warning signals.

    In fact: if the scratchcard is purchased using a card belonging to one person, yet the win is claimed by another, would they investigate? Who 'owns' the scratchcard?
    Some of these people are just thick. I particularly enjoyed the story of the man who stole a radio, and found a fault. He took it back to the shop and demanded a replacement. As he didn't have a receipt they refused, so he reported them to the police. The police asked him why he didn't have a receipt and he said, 'because I stole it...'
    My favourite (I think it is from Stephen Pile's "Book of heroic failures") was the bank robber who held up a bank. Because his voice might be recognised, he wrote down his demands on a piece of paper. He got the money and scarpered.

    His address was on the back of the piece of paper...

    I think there was another where the robber left his dog outside the bank, then went back to get it later.
    I bought that book when it came out. It was brilliant reading :)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108

    ydoethur said:

    No. What should they have done? Gone back to whoever they'd stolen the debit card from, with a proposal to create a post-win lottery syndicate? That way, the card-owner gets (say) £2 million and the thieves £1 million each, rather than no-one being paid any winnings.
    Surely all they would have needed to do was create a bank account (although that might be difficult for two homeless ex-criminals?). Or use an acquaintances account.

    It depends how much checking the National Lottery do. I can imagine if the scratchcard was purchased using a card for a 'Mr Joe Smith', and the lottery is claimed by a 'Mr F Witt' using an account belonging to 'Mr P Ratt', it might throw up warning signals.

    In fact: if the scratchcard is purchased using a card belonging to one person, yet the win is claimed by another, would they investigate? Who 'owns' the scratchcard?
    Some of these people are just thick. I particularly enjoyed the story of the man who stole a radio, and found a fault. He took it back to the shop and demanded a replacement. As he didn't have a receipt they refused, so he reported them to the police. The police asked him why he didn't have a receipt and he said, 'because I stole it...'
    My favourite (I think it is from Stephen Pile's "Book of heroic failures") was the bank robber who held up a bank. Because his voice might be recognised, he wrote down his demands on a piece of paper. He got the money and scarpered.

    His address was on the back of the piece of paper...

    I think there was another where the robber left his dog outside the bank, then went back to get it later.
    I bought that book when it came out. It was brilliant reading :)
    Sounds like a great Christmas gift!
  • PMQs might be fun. Or not, with all parties making a last pitch to the good folk of North Shropshire.

    Do we get a PMQ's today? I thought Parliament had risen.
    Hansard and the BBC think it is on.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59609609
    Oh well. Wrong again.
    Thought there had been something about Parliament rising this Tuesday. Must be next. However, as I desperately try to save face, isn't Johnson on paternity leave, so won't be at PMQ's?
    Tbf, I think there was a plan to rise early but it was abandoned somewhere along the line. I'd be surprised if Boris skips PMQs. This is not the time to let backbenchers see how much better his stand-in performs.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    PMQs might be fun. Or not, with all parties making a last pitch to the good folk of North Shropshire.

    Do we get a PMQ's today? I thought Parliament had risen.
    Hansard and the BBC think it is on.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59609609
    Oh well. Wrong again.
    Thought there had been something about Parliament rising this Tuesday. Must be next. However, as I desperately try to save face, isn't Johnson on paternity leave, so won't be at PMQ's?
    I’m 100% sure that last week it was announced that Parliament would adjourn yesterday

    But it actual does adjourn tomorrow so there will be PMQs today
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331

    But is 2023 not too close to the next UK GE?

    If they’re going to switch to Sunak, Truss or Hunt they’re better doing it soon, to give the new boy or girl time to establish themselves before facing the electorate.

    Bear in mind Tory MPs don't just have to force a leadership election, they have to win it; and although there are some Tory MPs in the Red Wall that will be flushed out if Johnson destroys the party, they're outnumbered by MPs on the government payroll and complacent southern/western MPs with ultrasafe seats who will be fine no matter what. The argument that all they have to do is wait Johnson out is a lot more attractive to MPs who won't lose their seats and are too cowardly to risk Johnson's short term temper tantrums. So even if enough MPs are ballsy enough to confidence vote Johnson next year, I suspect they'll lose it and he'll continue to stagger on.

    I completely agree this attitude will be disastrous in the medium term, and the Tories are going to be in very deep trouble at the next election, but I think you're overestimating their rationality.
    There's also the possibility of holding an election next skimmer, justified by the change of leader and government program.
    To Sunak that might seem a better bet that struggling through the next couple of years with little prospect of engineering pre election giveaways.
    To the party there's also a silver lining should they lose the election. It would be something of a hospital pass to Starmer and his inexperienced front bench.
  • Foxy said:

    PMQs might be fun. Or not, with all parties making a last pitch to the good folk of North Shropshire.

    Do we get a PMQ's today? I thought Parliament had risen.
    Hansard and the BBC think it is on.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59609609
    Is Johnson on paternity leave though?
    I think we can depend on Boris not to turn up for PMQs if there is an excuse available ... :wink:

    Who stands in for him? Dominic "My brain is missing" Raab?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    edited December 2021
    Mr DJ, Mr e, thank you.

    Im not convinced though, that the DPM will be more convincing in his answers than the PM.
  • ydoethur said:

    No. What should they have done? Gone back to whoever they'd stolen the debit card from, with a proposal to create a post-win lottery syndicate? That way, the card-owner gets (say) £2 million and the thieves £1 million each, rather than no-one being paid any winnings.
    Surely all they would have needed to do was create a bank account (although that might be difficult for two homeless ex-criminals?). Or use an acquaintances account.

    It depends how much checking the National Lottery do. I can imagine if the scratchcard was purchased using a card for a 'Mr Joe Smith', and the lottery is claimed by a 'Mr F Witt' using an account belonging to 'Mr P Ratt', it might throw up warning signals.

    In fact: if the scratchcard is purchased using a card belonging to one person, yet the win is claimed by another, would they investigate? Who 'owns' the scratchcard?
    Some of these people are just thick. I particularly enjoyed the story of the man who stole a radio, and found a fault. He took it back to the shop and demanded a replacement. As he didn't have a receipt they refused, so he reported them to the police. The police asked him why he didn't have a receipt and he said, 'because I stole it...'
    My favourite (I think it is from Stephen Pile's "Book of heroic failures") was the bank robber who held up a bank. Because his voice might be recognised, he wrote down his demands on a piece of paper. He got the money and scarpered.

    His address was on the back of the piece of paper...

    I think there was another where the robber left his dog outside the bank, then went back to get it later.
    I bought that book when it came out. It was brilliant reading :)
    Sounds like a great Christmas gift!
    Yes indeed.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Book-Heroic-Failures-Official-Handbook/dp/0708819087
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    Wes Streeting is making a name for himself. Next leader bar one?

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1470775538495234051?t=gUeC-pIg5Y95yk0cHVZ5Rg&s=19

  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

    Delivery of levelling up was required, and it has been stopped rather than delivering even baby-steps.

    Backsides will be kicked, and the Tories risk losing their new voting coalition for good.
    Having persuaded large numbers of people to back the Tories in traditionally Labour areas last time out, the government has to deliver something tangible in this area before the next election, unless they want these new voters to go back to sitting on their hands.

    The appointment of Gove to run DCLG (or whatever they’re called this week) showed that the PM is serious about it, but there need to be tangible results quickly.

    The first thing they need to remember, is that most of the working classes use cars as transport - and most of them are old cars. They don’t see trains and EVs as a priority, quite the opposite.
    This is not accurate. The Tory red wall heartlands are full of new Audis and BMWs.
    Sure, but most of them will be company cars or leased - where an Audi costs about £20 a month more than a VW, which costs £20 a month more than a Skoda, and they’re all actually the same car underneath.

    My point was more that the sort of transport solutions that are loved by civil servants in London, are not those desired by the occupants of the Red Wall towns.
    Didn’t we cover that last week.

    City centres have a core mass of offices and shops that mean a lot of journeys are into the city centre - for which public transport is great.

    The issue comes when your journey doesn’t end in he city centre at which point every journey requires a minimum of 2 bits of public transport at which point a car becomes the better option.

    It’s why @Philip_Thompson loves road building.
  • eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

    Delivery of levelling up was required, and it has been stopped rather than delivering even baby-steps.

    Backsides will be kicked, and the Tories risk losing their new voting coalition for good.
    Having persuaded large numbers of people to back the Tories in traditionally Labour areas last time out, the government has to deliver something tangible in this area before the next election, unless they want these new voters to go back to sitting on their hands.

    The appointment of Gove to run DCLG (or whatever they’re called this week) showed that the PM is serious about it, but there need to be tangible results quickly.

    The first thing they need to remember, is that most of the working classes use cars as transport - and most of them are old cars. They don’t see trains and EVs as a priority, quite the opposite.
    This is not accurate. The Tory red wall heartlands are full of new Audis and BMWs.
    Sure, but most of them will be company cars or leased - where an Audi costs about £20 a month more than a VW, which costs £20 a month more than a Skoda, and they’re all actually the same car underneath.

    My point was more that the sort of transport solutions that are loved by civil servants in London, are not those desired by the occupants of the Red Wall towns.
    Didn’t we cover that last week.

    City centres have a core mass of offices and shops that mean a lot of journeys are into the city centre - for which public transport is great.

    The issue comes when your journey doesn’t end in he city centre at which point every journey requires a minimum of 2 bits of public transport at which point a car becomes the better option.

    It’s why @Philip_Thompson loves road building.
    Even better is an ebike
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

    Delivery of levelling up was required, and it has been stopped rather than delivering even baby-steps.

    Backsides will be kicked, and the Tories risk losing their new voting coalition for good.
    Having persuaded large numbers of people to back the Tories in traditionally Labour areas last time out, the government has to deliver something tangible in this area before the next election, unless they want these new voters to go back to sitting on their hands.

    The appointment of Gove to run DCLG (or whatever they’re called this week) showed that the PM is serious about it, but there need to be tangible results quickly.

    The first thing they need to remember, is that most of the working classes use cars as transport - and most of them are old cars. They don’t see trains and EVs as a priority, quite the opposite.
    This is not accurate. The Tory red wall heartlands are full of new Audis and BMWs.
    Sure, but most of them will be company cars or leased - where an Audi costs about £20 a month more than a VW, which costs £20 a month more than a Skoda, and they’re all actually the same car underneath.

    My point was more that the sort of transport solutions that are loved by civil servants in London, are not those desired by the occupants of the Red Wall towns.
    Didn’t we cover that last week.

    City centres have a core mass of offices and shops that mean a lot of journeys are into the city centre - for which public transport is great.

    The issue comes when your journey doesn’t end in he city centre at which point every journey requires a minimum of 2 bits of public transport at which point a car becomes the better option.

    It’s why @Philip_Thompson loves road building.
    Even better is an ebike
    Depends on the distance. And the weather! If anyone wants an e-bike Mrs C says I'll never ride mine again. Been trying to pluck up courage/admit personal deterioration enough to actually sell it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    CPI 5.1%
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

    Delivery of levelling up was required, and it has been stopped rather than delivering even baby-steps.

    Backsides will be kicked, and the Tories risk losing their new voting coalition for good.
    Having persuaded large numbers of people to back the Tories in traditionally Labour areas last time out, the government has to deliver something tangible in this area before the next election, unless they want these new voters to go back to sitting on their hands.

    The appointment of Gove to run DCLG (or whatever they’re called this week) showed that the PM is serious about it, but there need to be tangible results quickly.

    The first thing they need to remember, is that most of the working classes use cars as transport - and most of them are old cars. They don’t see trains and EVs as a priority, quite the opposite.
    This is not accurate. The Tory red wall heartlands are full of new Audis and BMWs.
    Sure, but most of them will be company cars or leased - where an Audi costs about £20 a month more than a VW, which costs £20 a month more than a Skoda, and they’re all actually the same car underneath.

    My point was more that the sort of transport solutions that are loved by civil servants in London, are not those desired by the occupants of the Red Wall towns.
    Didn’t we cover that last week.

    City centres have a core mass of offices and shops that mean a lot of journeys are into the city centre - for which public transport is great.

    The issue comes when your journey doesn’t end in he city centre at which point every journey requires a minimum of 2 bits of public transport at which point a car becomes the better option.

    It’s why @Philip_Thompson loves road building.
    What is worth pointing out is that new Government Offices are now returning to Town / City Centres rather than out of town business parks.

    See for instance the new HMRC / DWP Newcastle Offices and Treasury North (although that's 1/2 mile from the town centre in a new complex by the train station).
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    IanB2 said:

    CPI 5.1%

    Looking forward to my 6% payrise in April

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,680
    edited December 2021
    IanB2 said:

    CPI 5.1%

    You know where people will notice this.

    Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.

    So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

    Delivery of levelling up was required, and it has been stopped rather than delivering even baby-steps.

    Backsides will be kicked, and the Tories risk losing their new voting coalition for good.
    Having persuaded large numbers of people to back the Tories in traditionally Labour areas last time out, the government has to deliver something tangible in this area before the next election, unless they want these new voters to go back to sitting on their hands.

    The appointment of Gove to run DCLG (or whatever they’re called this week) showed that the PM is serious about it, but there need to be tangible results quickly.

    The first thing they need to remember, is that most of the working classes use cars as transport - and most of them are old cars. They don’t see trains and EVs as a priority, quite the opposite.
    This is not accurate. The Tory red wall heartlands are full of new Audis and BMWs.
    Sure, but most of them will be company cars or leased - where an Audi costs about £20 a month more than a VW, which costs £20 a month more than a Skoda, and they’re all actually the same car underneath.

    My point was more that the sort of transport solutions that are loved by civil servants in London, are not those desired by the occupants of the Red Wall towns.
    Didn’t we cover that last week.

    City centres have a core mass of offices and shops that mean a lot of journeys are into the city centre - for which public transport is great.

    The issue comes when your journey doesn’t end in he city centre at which point every journey requires a minimum of 2 bits of public transport at which point a car becomes the better option.

    It’s why @Philip_Thompson loves road building.
    What is worth pointing out is that new Government Offices are now returning to Town / City Centres rather than out of town business parks.

    See for instance the new HMRC / DWP Newcastle Offices and Treasury North (although that's 1/2 mile from the town centre in a new complex by the train station).
    That's a shame. It'd be much better and more realistic if they were in out of town business parks so they had to drive like the overwhelming majority of the country does and shake them out of a 'trains are everything' stupor.
  • IanB2 said:

    CPI 5.1%

    You know where people will notice this.

    Mobile phone bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.

    So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
    Its hardly likely to be the only things shooting up in price. Unless Omicron smashes things up and we get another down spike in prices fuelled by a drop off in demand.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    edited December 2021

    IanB2 said:

    CPI 5.1%

    You know where people will notice this.

    Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.

    So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
    You might notice it, but for most people that’s only a couple of quid a month.
  • Scott_xP said:

    ...

    They must all be in schools then: I came home yesterday with one of a number of boxes of 25 tests that were being handed out to any one who wants one in the staff room.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    IanB2 said:

    CPI 5.1%

    Smarkets have a market on an interest rate rise in Dec with 3.95 for yes. The decision is on Thursday 16th AIUI.

    This sort of CPI rise is getting hard to ignore. Looks value to me.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

    Delivery of levelling up was required, and it has been stopped rather than delivering even baby-steps.

    Backsides will be kicked, and the Tories risk losing their new voting coalition for good.
    Having persuaded large numbers of people to back the Tories in traditionally Labour areas last time out, the government has to deliver something tangible in this area before the next election, unless they want these new voters to go back to sitting on their hands.

    The appointment of Gove to run DCLG (or whatever they’re called this week) showed that the PM is serious about it, but there need to be tangible results quickly.

    The first thing they need to remember, is that most of the working classes use cars as transport - and most of them are old cars. They don’t see trains and EVs as a priority, quite the opposite.
    This is not accurate. The Tory red wall heartlands are full of new Audis and BMWs.
    Sure, but most of them will be company cars or leased - where an Audi costs about £20 a month more than a VW, which costs £20 a month more than a Skoda, and they’re all actually the same car underneath.

    My point was more that the sort of transport solutions that are loved by civil servants in London, are not those desired by the occupants of the Red Wall towns.
    Didn’t we cover that last week.

    City centres have a core mass of offices and shops that mean a lot of journeys are into the city centre - for which public transport is great.

    The issue comes when your journey doesn’t end in he city centre at which point every journey requires a minimum of 2 bits of public transport at which point a car becomes the better option.

    It’s why @Philip_Thompson loves road building.
    What is worth pointing out is that new Government Offices are now returning to Town / City Centres rather than out of town business parks.

    See for instance the new HMRC / DWP Newcastle Offices and Treasury North (although that's 1/2 mile from the town centre in a new complex by the train station).
    That's a shame. It'd be much better and more realistic if they were in out of town business parks so they had to drive like the overwhelming majority of the country does and shake them out of a 'trains are everything' stupor.
    It's Newcastle - which has a metro system - so for many people it's just an easier commute with a slightly longer or shorter journey.

    For Treasury North - the punishment will be to have to drive into the town centre - if it was on one of the other planned locations their journey would be a lot easier. On a good day leaving at 8:15 it would take 25 minutes for me to do the 1.5 mile drive to that office as traffic is so bad.
  • On topic, political authority is a lot like virginity or a balloon.

    One prick and it is gone.

    Boris Johnson's decision over O-Patz was awesome as many of us pointed out but the Tories had a majority of 80 so it was fine.
  • eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

    Delivery of levelling up was required, and it has been stopped rather than delivering even baby-steps.

    Backsides will be kicked, and the Tories risk losing their new voting coalition for good.
    Having persuaded large numbers of people to back the Tories in traditionally Labour areas last time out, the government has to deliver something tangible in this area before the next election, unless they want these new voters to go back to sitting on their hands.

    The appointment of Gove to run DCLG (or whatever they’re called this week) showed that the PM is serious about it, but there need to be tangible results quickly.

    The first thing they need to remember, is that most of the working classes use cars as transport - and most of them are old cars. They don’t see trains and EVs as a priority, quite the opposite.
    This is not accurate. The Tory red wall heartlands are full of new Audis and BMWs.
    Sure, but most of them will be company cars or leased - where an Audi costs about £20 a month more than a VW, which costs £20 a month more than a Skoda, and they’re all actually the same car underneath.

    My point was more that the sort of transport solutions that are loved by civil servants in London, are not those desired by the occupants of the Red Wall towns.
    Didn’t we cover that last week.

    City centres have a core mass of offices and shops that mean a lot of journeys are into the city centre - for which public transport is great.

    The issue comes when your journey doesn’t end in he city centre at which point every journey requires a minimum of 2 bits of public transport at which point a car becomes the better option.

    It’s why @Philip_Thompson loves road building.
    Even better is an ebike
    Depends on the distance. And the weather! If anyone wants an e-bike Mrs C says I'll never ride mine again. Been trying to pluck up courage/admit personal deterioration enough to actually sell it.
    I use my ebike for all urban trips under 10 miles in just about all weather when I am on my own.
  • Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    CPI 5.1%

    You know where people will notice this.

    Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.

    So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
    You might notice it, but for more most people that’s only a couple of quid a month.
    Quite easy for me to calculate, a 10% increase would be a £1 increase in my bill.

    An increase in house costs or similar utterly dwarfs piddly stuff like that.
  • Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    CPI 5.1%

    You know where people will notice this.

    Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.

    So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
    You might notice it, but for more most people that’s only a couple of quid a month.
    Yeah, I think I have 13 contracts between O2 and EE.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    CPI 5.1%

    You know where people will notice this.

    Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.

    So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
    You might notice it, but for more most people that’s only a couple of quid a month.
    While your perspectives on the Red Wall and the cost of living squeeze are interesting, how easy is this to follow from the Middle East?

    It looks to me that today's CPI and last weeks pathetic GDP figures are quite major warnings of stagflation.
  • eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    - “On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.”

    That’s not the problem though. Mid-term leads for the Opposition is bog-standard for England (although not for Scotland these days).

    Nope, the problem is not that Labour has a lead, it is *where* they have surged ahead: the Red Wall.

    Yesterday’s Survation:

    North: Lab 49% Con 29%
    Midlands: Lab 47% Con 33%
    South: Con 43% Lab 35%
    London: Lab 48% Con 27%

    England Lab 43% Con 35%

    What seems to be happening is that England is reverting to type: powerful Labour urban bases in the Midlands, North and London, with the Tories retreating to their traditional territory in the Home Counties and rural areas. This spells utter disaster for the Conservatives.

    It is this geographical pattern that will panic Conservative MPs, not the overall Labour lead.

    Delivery of levelling up was required, and it has been stopped rather than delivering even baby-steps.

    Backsides will be kicked, and the Tories risk losing their new voting coalition for good.
    Having persuaded large numbers of people to back the Tories in traditionally Labour areas last time out, the government has to deliver something tangible in this area before the next election, unless they want these new voters to go back to sitting on their hands.

    The appointment of Gove to run DCLG (or whatever they’re called this week) showed that the PM is serious about it, but there need to be tangible results quickly.

    The first thing they need to remember, is that most of the working classes use cars as transport - and most of them are old cars. They don’t see trains and EVs as a priority, quite the opposite.
    This is not accurate. The Tory red wall heartlands are full of new Audis and BMWs.
    Sure, but most of them will be company cars or leased - where an Audi costs about £20 a month more than a VW, which costs £20 a month more than a Skoda, and they’re all actually the same car underneath.

    My point was more that the sort of transport solutions that are loved by civil servants in London, are not those desired by the occupants of the Red Wall towns.
    Didn’t we cover that last week.

    City centres have a core mass of offices and shops that mean a lot of journeys are into the city centre - for which public transport is great.

    The issue comes when your journey doesn’t end in he city centre at which point every journey requires a minimum of 2 bits of public transport at which point a car becomes the better option.

    It’s why @Philip_Thompson loves road building.
    That's not really true. In most large urban centres, public transport is frequent enough so that a change of transport - including inter-modal changes - is perfectly easy to do. Before Covid at least, public transport was well used. The question is, whether those dependant on public transport are aspirational Red Wall Tory voters, or less well off and still vote Labour. Also don't forget some people both drive and use public transport, depending on the circumstances, but they would probably be less easily swayed by public transport improvements as they have the car alternative.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    IanB2 said:

    CPI 5.1%

    You know where people will notice this.

    Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.

    So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
    It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    CPI 5.1%

    You know where people will notice this.

    Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.

    So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
    You might notice it, but for more most people that’s only a couple of quid a month.
    While your perspectives on the Red Wall and the cost of living squeeze are interesting, how easy is this to follow from the Middle East?

    It looks to me that today's CPI and last weeks pathetic GDP figures are quite major warnings of stagflation.
    Similar phenomena are being experienced everywhere in the developed world at the moment. The inflation is been driven mostly by global supply chain issues, which in theory should sort themselves out in the near future.
  • DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    CPI 5.1%

    You know where people will notice this.

    Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.

    So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
    It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
    I was there with petrol years ago.

    Go electric/hybrid, I felt even more smugger when we had the fuel crisis a few months ago.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    CPI 5.1%

    You know where people will notice this.

    Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.

    So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
    You might notice it, but for more most people that’s only a couple of quid a month.
    While your perspectives on the Red Wall and the cost of living squeeze are interesting, how easy is this to follow from the Middle East?

    It looks to me that today's CPI and last weeks pathetic GDP figures are quite major warnings of stagflation.
    Similar phenomena are being experienced everywhere in the developed world at the moment. The inflation is been driven mostly by global supply chain issues, which in theory should sort themselves out in the near future.
    Well they would have done had the world not gone crashing back into a series of lockdowns and quasi lockdowns all over again on the back of Omicron. Its quite possible that our economy may have shrunk again in Q4 contrary to earlier optimism and we have locked down much less than most of Europe.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    DavidL said:

    Well I may be wrong but....

    The idea that the coalition that Boris built is available to anyone else in the Tory party is optimistic bordering on delusional. Boris reaches other voters in ways no other Tory has matched in a very long time, with the possible exception of Ruth Davidson.

    Surely that should read "reached" rather than "reaches" ?

    Is there evidence of Johnson retaining popularity in Red Wall* towns? He seems a popular as a turd in a swimming pool everywhere.

    *I agree with @dixiedean that the Red Wall stereotype is not very accurate, I think voters there are not the fossils that some depict. Indeed not very different to other parts of the country.

  • DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    CPI 5.1%

    You know where people will notice this.

    Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.

    So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
    It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
    That's going to hit people more, indeed.

    As this excellent article from The Economist a while back put it, its all about cars and houses. The Red Wall is full of houses with 2 cars each, its not train sets. The mantra for keeping it needs to be cars and houses, cars and houses, cars and houses. Deal with those and you've got it.
    image
  • Foxy said:

    Wes Streeting is making a name for himself. Next leader bar one?

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1470775538495234051?t=gUeC-pIg5Y95yk0cHVZ5Rg&s=19

    Did you see his remote interview on Newsnight last night (also featured @Tissue_Price btw)? Streeting, like all MPs and, for that matter, anyone else who wants to be taken seriously, needs to spend a few quid on a decent microphone and webcam, possibly even a light. I'm surprised the parties aren't on to this.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    CPI 5.1%

    You know where people will notice this.

    Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.

    So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
    It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
    I was there with petrol years ago.

    Go electric/hybrid, I felt even more smugger when we had the fuel crisis a few months ago.
    Even in the Middle East, we are moaning about the price of petrol which has never been higher. The only hybrids on the road are taxis, and most of us still have V8s with 80 litre fuel tanks.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    edited December 2021

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    They must all be in schools then: I came home yesterday with one of a number of boxes of 25 tests that were being handed out to any one who wants one in the staff room.
    Just got given another pile by my youngest daughters school.

    EDIT: It was interesting that the reason for the "shortage" was that after x online orders the system automatically said no more - today. As in it was setup to ration online orders per day. Which is actually rather sensible from a pyschology/OR perspective. Panic buying with zero cost and all that. Someone seems to have been quite intelligent.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301
    I reckon BoE’s calculating that putting up rates will be seen to be making things worse for people with mortgages.
  • DavidL said:

    Well I may be wrong but....

    The idea that the coalition that Boris built is available to anyone else in the Tory party is optimistic bordering on delusional. Boris reaches other voters in ways no other Tory has matched in a very long time, with the possible exception of Ruth Davidson.

    If I was a first term red waller I would look at the likes of Sunak and think that man is going to bring coherence, stability and he's going to lose me my seat. And I would very probably be right.

    Removing a PM is difficult. Even the inexorably useless May hung on for a very long time despite the loss of repeated votes which were effectively votes of no confidence in her and her deal.

    I personally think that people are grossly exaggerating the importance of a by election. I think that the Tories will lose NS and it will be a non event. Again.

    There are underlying issues of competence, credibility and attention to detail as well as health. There are a variety of ways in these febrile times that Boris could fall next year but I would not be betting on it at these rates or anywhere near them.

    I think the word you were looked for here was reached. The magic power that he had to pied pier along all those first time Tory votes has gone. Brexit has been done, hasn't delivered its promises, the cash for their communities is patchy at best, they're about to get smashed with tax rises for worse services, and they can see he's a lying prick.

    Clinging on to Boris "because he's a winner" misses out basic awareness of just how badly he has destroyed his own brand these last few weeks.

    Let me tell you why Sunak can carry the red wall. I have watched with a wry smile how he keeps popping up in red wall seats with their 2019 MP very enthusiastically talking about what HIS cash is being invested in. Where red wall MPs can show delivery of *something* they have a chance, and the smart ones are on it - Matt Vickers being a great example of this in Stockton South.

    Then we have the Tory heartlands. Sunak pulled the plug on what some see as profligate spending. Wants to cut taxes and has protected their sort of voter from the worst rises. And he's clearly one of them. So I can see how Sunak can replace boosterism with actual delivery AND balance the finances for the people who care.

    What can Johnson do?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Well I may be wrong but....

    The idea that the coalition that Boris built is available to anyone else in the Tory party is optimistic bordering on delusional. Boris reaches other voters in ways no other Tory has matched in a very long time, with the possible exception of Ruth Davidson.

    Surely that should read "reached" rather than "reaches" ?

    Is there evidence of Johnson retaining popularity in Red Wall* towns? He seems a popular as a turd in a swimming pool everywhere.

    *I agree with @dixiedean that the Red Wall stereotype is not very accurate, I think voters there are not the fossils that some depict. Indeed not very different to other parts of the country.

    I agree on the demographics but they had a tradition of not voting Tory or indeed anything but Labour. Boris broke that. I really doubt that anyone other than him can do it again, whatever his current popularity.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    Foxy said:

    Wes Streeting is making a name for himself. Next leader bar one?

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1470775538495234051?t=gUeC-pIg5Y95yk0cHVZ5Rg&s=19

    Did you see his remote interview on Newsnight last night (also featured @Tissue_Price btw)? Streeting, like all MPs and, for that matter, anyone else who wants to be taken seriously, needs to spend a few quid on a decent microphone and webcam, possibly even a light. I'm surprised the parties aren't on to this.
    I have been doing Web interviews for medical school entrance. A headset microphone gives so much better sound quality. It shouldn't affect decisions, but makes for far better quality.
  • What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.

    Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.

    Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    CPI 5.1%

    You know where people will notice this.

    Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.

    So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
    It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
    I was there with petrol years ago.

    Go electric/hybrid, I felt even more smugger when we had the fuel crisis a few months ago.
    You may have a case with hybrids (just...), but I have a fairly healthy amount of contempt for the view that EVs are affordable for the masses yet. They are not. They are not currently a workable solution to the problems - and face significant issues themselves with high take-up.

    People with EVs should pay a smugness tax. ;)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    tlg86 said:

    I reckon BoE’s calculating that putting up rates will be seen to be making things worse for people with mortgages.

    Sure, but their terms of reference are to meet the inflation target.

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    Foxy said:

    Wes Streeting is making a name for himself. Next leader bar one?

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1470775538495234051?t=gUeC-pIg5Y95yk0cHVZ5Rg&s=19

    I caught the end of his speech. He highlighted perfectly sensible things the government should be doing to reduce the risk from omicron, rather than the totemic policies they are introducing that will have minimal to zero impact on outcomes. But then it was “we’re voting with the govt anyway”.

    This would to be honest indicate the silly strategy was down to Starmer and not him. It upset some people here to say so but Starmer had the numbers yesterday for far more than he achieved.

    He thought it was clever to play the card of “we aren’t playing politics with the nation’s health”. It would have been far more clever to force through some sensible improvements so he could say “we are filling the vacuum left by the absence of a functioning government”. Even more so if he’d have made a point of blocking the mandatory vaccinations vote as actually detrimental to short term health outcomes and highlighting how the Tories ideas aren’t just stale and ineffective but outright reckless.

    Sigh.
  • Did we find out the explanation for Sunak abstaining last night?
  • DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    CPI 5.1%

    You know where people will notice this.

    Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.

    So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
    It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
    That's going to hit people more, indeed.

    As this excellent article from The Economist a while back put it, its all about cars and houses. The Red Wall is full of houses with 2 cars each, its not train sets. The mantra for keeping it needs to be cars and houses, cars and houses, cars and houses. Deal with those and you've got it.
    image
    Not sure that Wazza counts as the red wall. We know your personal views on developers building houses everywhere with no impediment. But red wall voters tend to not want that. So what you advocate is the opposite of what they will vote for. Labour are seen as the party of stupid planning applications, the Tories as the ones who oppose them and defend their communities.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    CPI 5.1%

    You know where people will notice this.

    Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.

    So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
    It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
    I was there with petrol years ago.

    Go electric/hybrid, I felt even more smugger when we had the fuel crisis a few months ago.
    You may have a case with hybrids (just...), but I have a fairly healthy amount of contempt for the view that EVs are affordable for the masses yet. They are not. They are not currently a workable solution to the problems - and face significant issues themselves with high take-up.

    People with EVs should pay a smugness tax. ;)
    No, I really see that EVs have reached the point where they become mainstream. The technology is there, and becoming better value. Not least because the depreciation on ICE cars will be terrible soon. Used cars are holding value well at present because of supply shortages, but will be unsellable in a few years.
  • DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    CPI 5.1%

    You know where people will notice this.

    Mobile phone and internet bills. In March all the major networks and MVNOs have in contract rises of CPI +3.9%.

    So for most consumers their bills are going up 10%.
    It's fuel. The moment when the machine imposed limit of £99 does not get me a full tank of diesel is imminent. The highest so far is £96.
    I was there with petrol years ago.

    Go electric/hybrid, I felt even more smugger when we had the fuel crisis a few months ago.
    You may have a case with hybrids (just...), but I have a fairly healthy amount of contempt for the view that EVs are affordable for the masses yet. They are not. They are not currently a workable solution to the problems - and face significant issues themselves with high take-up.

    People with EVs should pay a smugness tax. ;)
    According to my friends, you could pay off the national debt if my smugness was taxed.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    As @BorisJohnson charm “curdles” the Tory party looks to be losing its grip on reality.

    “It is an affliction to which the Conservative right is historically prone, and to which Brexit has added a hubristic streak.”


    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1471028993969340418
    https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1471008169140920326


    Someone else made the same point last night. The lesson the headbangers took from Brexit is "the public agrees with us" even though that is total bollocks
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321

    DavidL said:

    Well I may be wrong but....

    The idea that the coalition that Boris built is available to anyone else in the Tory party is optimistic bordering on delusional. Boris reaches other voters in ways no other Tory has matched in a very long time, with the possible exception of Ruth Davidson.

    If I was a first term red waller I would look at the likes of Sunak and think that man is going to bring coherence, stability and he's going to lose me my seat. And I would very probably be right.

    Removing a PM is difficult. Even the inexorably useless May hung on for a very long time despite the loss of repeated votes which were effectively votes of no confidence in her and her deal.

    I personally think that people are grossly exaggerating the importance of a by election. I think that the Tories will lose NS and it will be a non event. Again.

    There are underlying issues of competence, credibility and attention to detail as well as health. There are a variety of ways in these febrile times that Boris could fall next year but I would not be betting on it at these rates or anywhere near them.

    I think the word you were looked for here was reached. The magic power that he had to pied pier along all those first time Tory votes has gone. Brexit has been done, hasn't delivered its promises, the cash for their communities is patchy at best, they're about to get smashed with tax rises for worse services, and they can see he's a lying prick.

    Clinging on to Boris "because he's a winner" misses out basic awareness of just how badly he has destroyed his own brand these last few weeks.

    Let me tell you why Sunak can carry the red wall. I have watched with a wry smile how he keeps popping up in red wall seats with their 2019 MP very enthusiastically talking about what HIS cash is being invested in. Where red wall MPs can show delivery of *something* they have a chance, and the smart ones are on it - Matt Vickers being a great example of this in Stockton South.

    Then we have the Tory heartlands. Sunak pulled the plug on what some see as profligate spending. Wants to cut taxes and has protected their sort of voter from the worst rises. And he's clearly one of them. So I can see how Sunak can replace boosterism with actual delivery AND balance the finances for the people who care.

    What can Johnson do?
    The magic power is also rather a myth, if you look at his ratings - which by the 2019 GE were lower than Corbyn at the 2017 GE as well as below previous Tory leaders throughout his term of office. The 2019 election was anti-Corbyn plus GBD, both of which factors have gone.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    Did we find out the explanation for Sunak abstaining last night?

    Can only be pairing, illness or isolating.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321

    What's interesting is that public transport, where it exists in the Red Wall, is primarily buses and not trains. The way to commute in the red wall as shown by that chart is overwhelmingly cars, then walking, then buses.

    Trains barely figure at all. Indeed on that chart fewer people use trains in the Red Wall than use bicycles in other types of seat.

    Trains are a non-northern obsession. Fuel prices and roads are what matters here.

    The reason for not building train lines is that people don't use trains? That's a view, I suppose.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Retail Prices Index, no longer an official statistic but still relevant for some purposes is now… 7.1%
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1471030117606567941
  • DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Well I may be wrong but....

    The idea that the coalition that Boris built is available to anyone else in the Tory party is optimistic bordering on delusional. Boris reaches other voters in ways no other Tory has matched in a very long time, with the possible exception of Ruth Davidson.

    Surely that should read "reached" rather than "reaches" ?

    Is there evidence of Johnson retaining popularity in Red Wall* towns? He seems a popular as a turd in a swimming pool everywhere.

    *I agree with @dixiedean that the Red Wall stereotype is not very accurate, I think voters there are not the fossils that some depict. Indeed not very different to other parts of the country.

    I agree on the demographics but they had a tradition of not voting Tory or indeed anything but Labour. Boris broke that. I really doubt that anyone other than him can do it again, whatever his current popularity.
    As Johnson cannot do that - seriously go talk to punters who are apoplectic about him "taking the piss" - then the alternative needs to be found.

    I've made the case for Sunak, quietly putting himself about in places like Bishop Aukland to talk up how much cash he personally has given their new Tory MP. Red wallers voted for results, if he can deliver something and be associated with it, he is their best shot. Far more so than nobodies like Truss or remote southerners like Hunt.

    Ever seen Sunak in action? He is like a tiny John Major, brilliant with people, exudes charm and energy. And unlike Major has the advantage of not having that voice and that face and Edwina as a mistress.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866

    Did we find out the explanation for Sunak abstaining last night?

    He wants to be leader of the Conservative party.
This discussion has been closed.