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A 2022 Johnson exit surges in the betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    maaarsh said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TimS said:

    More very encouraging SA news.

    https://twitter.com/tomtom_m/status/1471137200121257994?s=20

    Either South Africa is so different that what happens there can't read across to here, or we may be OK.

    Every week we can say this is a win.

    I think we can definitely say 'milder' now, and if excess deaths aren't just being laggy and all this still holds true by Christmas, I think we'll start being able to downward revise the UK worst case very significantly and Jan 5th will be off.
    As long as we all agree to say we've forgotten about quizgate.
    I'm more than happy to believe that Boris has never worn a party hat in his life.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    edited December 2021
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SCOOP (because no-one else cares):

    Conservative MP Laurence Robertson has been sacked from his unpaid job as a trade envoy to Angola and Zambia after he rebelled against the government on COVID rules last night.

    https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1471129971812933636

    That’ll learn him.
    It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
    Have I missed something?

    Boris gets a 100-strong rebellion after suggesting vaxports or LFT tests.

    What sort of rebellion do we think would happen if he tried anything else. It (any further restrictions) is all over, surely.
    Yes, it's all over for any additional restrictions. Boris would find himself quickly deposed and replaced with someone who campaigns on no more restrictions, time to live with COVID.
    So 20 months on we finally go the whole hog and just let the thing rip, because so many Tory MPs are cognitively dysfunctional. ICU full. Triage - meaning deciding who doesn't get intensive care. Maybe meaning who doesn't get any medical care at all, and just dies alone in their own home. I pity the people who have to clean up the mess.
    Chris yo yo.

    What would you do. We are all double/treble vaxxed. What would you do now this minute to "protect the NHS"? Lockdown? Fine. Until when? Force people to moderate their behaviour, not allow "meeting partners". until when?

    What would you do. What is Chris BTSOAP's plan, stan.
    As a few of us have been saying all along, if vaccines don't get us 100% of the way what is the alternative? NPIs forever?
    I think they have to be precautionary with winter upon us and incomplete data for Omicron. I'd be both very depressed and astonished if restrictions aren't more or less gone by spring with but with monitoring and maybe a cyclic vaccination programme like for flu.
    Then what about next year when we get Omega? Another winter lockdown? How is the cycle broken?
    From my amateur understanding it is likely that each wave will probably* be weaker in terms of serious illness and mortality.
    * due to build up of immunity and natural selection penalising any variety that significantly increased mortality. We might be unlucky of course and to some extent we have been unlucky with the timing of Omicron, it would have been easier to handle in our Summer.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Pro_Rata said:

    maaarsh said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TimS said:

    More very encouraging SA news.

    https://twitter.com/tomtom_m/status/1471137200121257994?s=20

    Either South Africa is so different that what happens there can't read across to here, or we may be OK.

    Every week we can say this is a win.

    I think we can definitely say 'milder' now, and if excess deaths aren't just being laggy and all this still holds true by Christmas, I think we'll start being able to downward revise the UK worst case very significantly and Jan 5th will be off.
    As long as we all agree to say we've forgotten about quizgate.
    I'm more than happy to believe that Boris has never worn a party hat in his life.
    I'll even pretend to be grateful for his masterful booster roll out if he'd just promise not to punish me for any more of his mistakes.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SCOOP (because no-one else cares):

    Conservative MP Laurence Robertson has been sacked from his unpaid job as a trade envoy to Angola and Zambia after he rebelled against the government on COVID rules last night.

    https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1471129971812933636

    That’ll learn him.
    It's actually quite funny that this is the extent of what the party is able to do after a 100 MP rebellion. Boris a lame duck.
    Have I missed something?

    Boris gets a 100-strong rebellion after suggesting vaxports or LFT tests.

    What sort of rebellion do we think would happen if he tried anything else. It (any further restrictions) is all over, surely.
    Yes, it's all over for any additional restrictions. Boris would find himself quickly deposed and replaced with someone who campaigns on no more restrictions, time to live with COVID.
    So 20 months on we finally go the whole hog and just let the thing rip, because so many Tory MPs are cognitively dysfunctional. ICU full. Triage - meaning deciding who doesn't get intensive care. Maybe meaning who doesn't get any medical care at all, and just dies alone in their own home. I pity the people who have to clean up the mess.
    Chris yo yo.

    What would you do. We are all double/treble vaxxed. What would you do now this minute to "protect the NHS"? Lockdown? Fine. Until when? Force people to moderate their behaviour, not allow "meeting partners". until when?

    What would you do. What is Chris BTSOAP's plan, stan.
    As a few of us have been saying all along, if vaccines don't get us 100% of the way what is the alternative? NPIs forever?
    I think they have to be precautionary with winter upon us and incomplete data for Omicron. I'd be both very depressed and astonished if restrictions aren't more or less gone by spring with but with monitoring and maybe a cyclic vaccination programme like for flu.
    Then what about next year when we get Omega? Another winter lockdown? How is the cycle broken?
    From my amateur understanding it is likely that each wave will probably* be weaker in terms of serious illness and mortality.
    * due to build up of immunity and natural selection penalising any variety that significantly increased mortality. We might be unlucky of course and to some extent we have been unlucky with the timing of Omicron, it would have been easier to handle in our Summer.
    "natural selection penalising any variety that significantly increased mortality" is going to happen to a virus carried by snow peopards. Not humans, for a while anyway.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,151
    Anecdotally by the way, on the "milder" theme, a lot of my younger colleagues have caught it in the last week. All 2-jabbed (mainly Pfizer), none yet boosted. I don't know if it's Omicron or Delta although likely Omicron as this is London.

    Almost all have had symptoms, and most have been laid properly low - like bad flu. So it's certainly not mild in the sense of just a cold. But this is the point, illness isn't binary between asymptomatic and death. Most diseases land somewhere between those two poles.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261

    maaarsh said:

    TimS said:

    More very encouraging SA news.

    https://twitter.com/tomtom_m/status/1471137200121257994?s=20

    Either South Africa is so different that what happens there can't read across to here, or we may be OK.

    Excess death in the Omicron epicentre below the South Africa average!
    Indeed. Excellent thread. No doubt it will be summarily dismissed by the pompous colonial attitudes on PB.
    Happy for SA if it's impact is lower than thought and they get through it relatively well compared to what it could have been that's great news.

    Hope the same applies for us but we are a much different country and as Covid has shown some countries suffer more than others.

    IMO the mistake that is being made is making the assumption that what happens in another country will happen here. There is no guarantee of that whatsoever with Covid.

    Ultimately let's wait and see, fingers crossed and all that.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 548,039
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 54,234
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 31,916
    NI 22,522

    Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....

    This is before the 15 minute waiting time rule change, that will allow for half a million more doses per day. As I said when the policy was updated, we've got a reasonably good chance of making the target or coming very close to it.
    Never really understood the need for the 15 minute waiting time. If you didn't have a reaction after doses 1 and 2, why would it happen after 3? Should imagine it will be a very unusual event - and not worth the loss of extra jab time that can be undertaken.
    That's relevant for Pfizer and Moderna but there was no 15 minute wait for AZ, so for 1 set of people it's not known if they will suffer a reaction or not.
    I had to wait 15 mins for both AZ and also for Pfizer.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    656,711 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (391,050 the previous Tuesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 548,039
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 54,234
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 31,916
    NI 22,522

    Thats wirh queues round the block, system full up etc Never getting million per day, definitely not 1.5 million are we.....

    Targets are a bullshit way of managing something. Every time I've come across them in practice that's been the case. Just leads to stress cascading downwards and numbers being fiddled. The deal should have been "as many as possible" and then put in place the resource and the system to facilitate.
    Try telling your theory to anyone in sport or anyone who has run a business. Lack of objectives leads to drift and underperformance. What you are probably referring to is badly drafted targets. A target that is fundamentally unachievable is pointless. This is an example of that, but not an example of targets per se.
    It applies to every field. But, yes, bottom up targets are fine. Ie those that flow organically from the resource and systems you put in place. I'm talking about top down ones. Those where a top banana decrees what "must happen" and then other people have to "deliver". These are toxic and are more common.
    My favourite was ensuring that you could get a GP appointment within 48 hours (?). Can't remember the precise details. It led to not being able to get appointments at all once the days slots had been booked... Can't offer one for 72 hours, no sir, that wouldn't match the target...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122

    Off topic, just looking at one of the new look passports (remember this was one of the main "benefits" of Brexit), and can't help noticing that they are not navy blue, but actually black! Even pointed a torch at it to see if it was actually blue: nope it is black. Perhaps we are in mourning for losing our place in the world as a serious country.

    It is cross referenced against your referendum vote. The navy ones are reserved for the loyal Brexiteers whilst Remainers get black.
    I like my new black passports because black passports matter!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,735
    Pro_Rata said:

    I'm more than happy to believe that Boris has never worn a party hat in his life.

    Is that a Madness reference?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021
    TimS said:

    Anecdotally by the way, on the "milder" theme, a lot of my younger colleagues have caught it in the last week. All 2-jabbed (mainly Pfizer), none yet boosted. I don't know if it's Omicron or Delta although likely Omicron as this is London.

    Almost all have had symptoms, and most have been laid properly low - like bad flu. So it's certainly not mild in the sense of just a cold. But this is the point, illness isn't binary between asymptomatic and death. Most diseases land somewhere between those two poles.

    This is the umbrage I take with the likes of the SA GP. It certainly looks like it is "milder" and the doomsday stuff from the government looks at best misplaced, but the term mild is thrown around and doesn't necessarily mean what most people think. We had the same with the original Wuhan report, mild != not hospitalised.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    TimS said:

    Anecdotally by the way, on the "milder" theme, a lot of my younger colleagues have caught it in the last week. All 2-jabbed (mainly Pfizer), none yet boosted. I don't know if it's Omicron or Delta although likely Omicron as this is London.

    Almost all have had symptoms, and most have been laid properly low - like bad flu. So it's certainly not mild in the sense of just a cold. But this is the point, illness isn't binary between asymptomatic and death. Most diseases land somewhere between those two poles.

    Delta was growing in London up to last week until Omi started nicking its hosts in larger numbers. So, it's either/or. If they've been told 'possible' Omi by contact tracing, then it probably is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2021
    Comres finds 63% of voters want to close nightclubs due to Omicron and 64% stop large events.
    https://comresglobal.com/polls/lockdown-snap-poll-december-2021/
    A lower 44% support closing pubs and restaurants, 35% opposed but 2019 Conservative voters are opposed to closing pubs and restaurants by 42% to 39%.
    https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/38028217-Snap-Poll-14th-December_14.12-Final-Tables.xlsx
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,848
    Stocky said:

    CP has come in again a little in the betting in NS.

    I think I'm about to topple off the fence and back them.
  • This thread has bunked off quarantine.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    TimS said:

    Anecdotally by the way, on the "milder" theme, a lot of my younger colleagues have caught it in the last week. All 2-jabbed (mainly Pfizer), none yet boosted. I don't know if it's Omicron or Delta although likely Omicron as this is London.

    Almost all have had symptoms, and most have been laid properly low - like bad flu. So it's certainly not mild in the sense of just a cold. But this is the point, illness isn't binary between asymptomatic and death. Most diseases land somewhere between those two poles.

    bad flu = mild.

    We are talking about halting society here.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    edited December 2021
    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Interestingly in my university-educated "metropolitan liberal elite" late 20s remainer friendship group support for lockdowns etc is not very high. We just want to get on with our lives. We are predominately Labour voters.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    TimS said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    With todays's SA data released ( https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/ ) it looks like they are on course for a third doubling of weekly deaths in a row.

    SA GP lady still hasn't seen anybody with any serious illness though.....
    To be fair ICU as percentage of total admissions is well down on the previous wave so we could genuinely be in a 'with' 'of' situation
    Indeed.

    The deaths numbers on the link simply don't line up with the daily reports, so perhaps the former is 'with' and the latter 'of'? Just an idea.

    Were this the case, then of course you would see a notable rise in 'with' because of the sheer volume of cases nationwide (and, this, the huge amount of nosocomial cases).
    This is what she said about the Delta wave in July 2021. I think her experience puts her in a good place to distinquish between the Delta & Omicron waves.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-south-africas-healthcare-workers-struggle-under-pressure-of-third-wave-12363905
    A stark contrast.

    I wonder if the PB Covid Experts rubbished her then? Quite possibly they did.
    An incredible contrast, no room in hospitals, trying to treat patients at home with oxygen because there was nowhere else to go,& "The extreme working patterns and the mental pressures that come with it"

    Does she look stressed now?

    This is the other thing. Usually in any wave the people who are most outspoken about how bad things are, and the pressures on the system, are front line medics. This time it's the front line medics talking about relative mildness.

    This Omicron SA data is like a 2017 pre-election MRP prediction. It seems odd and too good to be true because it's so unlike anything we've heard since Feb 2020. It may still turn out to be good to be true, or very SA specific, but merits watching.
    She has said that she has not seen a single Omicron patient with Covid pneumonia, the majority of Delta patients she saw had it.

    As she keeps saying we are all human so the reaction to Omicron in the UK and the rest of the world is very likely to be similar
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    Scott_xP said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I'm more than happy to believe that Boris has never worn a party hat in his life.

    Is that a Madness reference?
    You might think that..... :)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Interestingly in my university-educated "metropolitan liberal elite" late 20s remainer friendship group support for lockdowns etc is not very high. We just want to get on with our lives. We are predominately Labour voters.
    I'll put it in the pot, stir it, and see if any conclusions pop out...
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Interestingly in my university-educated "metropolitan liberal elite" late 20s remainer friendship group support for lockdowns etc is not very high. We just want to get on with our lives. We are predominately Labour voters.
    Yep, the age driver is obvious in all the polling. Extremely selfish, but have come to expect nothing less from the final salary pension, massive unearned equity generation.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,598
    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Study these names:

    @Anabobazina
    @TimS
    @FrankBooth
    @Stocky
    @williamglenn
    @Gardenwalker

    Did you see many rightwingers in that lot?

    Also, the most dovish areas – big cities – are leftwing and (at least until very recently) buzzing. Which rather gives the lie to the left/right theory.
  • MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    With todays's SA data released ( https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/ ) it looks like they are on course for a third doubling of weekly deaths in a row.

    Yes but they are mild deaths...🙄
    How does SA measure their deaths, is it the WHO standard of within 28 days of infection? Of Omicron is as infectious as we think couldn't there be a lot of incidental deaths, it's the same as here, if 1 in 10 people have COVID (as is currently being suggested lol) then 1/10 deaths will simply be put down as COVID deaths despite COVID being incidental to being run over by a bus.
    Supplementary question: when calculating mortality rates and comparing with earlier variants, how do they adjust for the fact omicron cases grew quicker ? If you say "at this point in the delta wave, deaths were x% of cases" that doesn't tell you very much if the case doubling time for omicron is significantly shorter.
    Yes, you are correct, the faster rate of increase would give the impression of a smaller percentage of deaths, for a while.
    Indeed. A virus that doubled in cases every day, hospitalised 50% of cases after 2 weeks and killed 25% after another week would look very mild for a while, if you used the same lag adjustments as you did for Delta...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,598
    jonny83 said:

    maaarsh said:

    TimS said:

    More very encouraging SA news.

    https://twitter.com/tomtom_m/status/1471137200121257994?s=20

    Either South Africa is so different that what happens there can't read across to here, or we may be OK.

    Excess death in the Omicron epicentre below the South Africa average!
    Indeed. Excellent thread. No doubt it will be summarily dismissed by the pompous colonial attitudes on PB.
    Happy for SA if it's impact is lower than thought and they get through it relatively well compared to what it could have been that's great news.

    Hope the same applies for us but we are a much different country and as Covid has shown some countries suffer more than others.

    IMO the mistake that is being made is making the assumption that what happens in another country will happen here. There is no guarantee of that whatsoever with Covid.

    Ultimately let's wait and see, fingers crossed and all that.
    Again though – and this is routinely misunderstood for some reason – the South African studies are comparing SA (Omicron) with SA (Delta/Wuhan), they are not comparing SA (Omicron) with some far-flung foreign land with entirely different demographics.
  • 78,610 165 deaths
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Study these names:

    @Anabobazina
    @TimS
    @FrankBooth
    @Stocky
    @williamglenn
    @Gardenwalker

    Did you see many rightwingers in that lot?

    Also, the most dovish areas – big cities – are leftwing and (at least until very recently) buzzing. Which rather gives the lie to the left/right theory.
    fpt yes fair enough bang goes the theory.

    Interesting that it is not reflected in the HoC voting.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Study these names:

    @Anabobazina
    @TimS
    @FrankBooth
    @Stocky
    @williamglenn
    @Gardenwalker

    Did you see many rightwingers in that lot?

    Also, the most dovish areas – big cities – are leftwing and (at least until very recently) buzzing. Which rather gives the lie to the left/right theory.
    fpt yes fair enough bang goes the theory.

    Interesting that it is not reflected in the HoC voting.
    Lib Dems.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Not to say there aren't a sh&tload of cases but LFT tests ran out FFS this week. That surely indicates a humungous level of testing vs previously.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    TOPPING said:

    So can we make this a multi-dimensional Left/Right wing, Leave/Remain matrix.

    I am a Remainer (as was) and centre right and am on the no more lockdowns fewer restrictions end of the spectrum

    *everyone in the room, together and supportively, says: Hello centre-right Remainer...*

    Those on the left are more comfortable with lockdowns, want them, even (not want @RP, but would be very happy to accept), while those on the right don't.

    No idea where that leaves Brexit views, that said.

    Study these names:

    @Anabobazina
    @TimS
    @FrankBooth
    @Stocky
    @williamglenn
    @Gardenwalker

    Did you see many rightwingers in that lot?

    Also, the most dovish areas – big cities – are leftwing and (at least until very recently) buzzing. Which rather gives the lie to the left/right theory.
    And @Gallowgate
  • O/T France 2 new polls - Harris Interactive and Opinion Way

    Harris interactive (fieldwork 10 to 13 December - changes from last week)
    Macron 24 (+1)
    Pecresse 17 (+3)
    Le Pen 16 (-2)
    Zemmour 15 (+1)
    Melenchon 11 (=)
    Jadot 7 (=)
    Hidalgo 4 (-1)
    All others 6 (-2)

    2nd round Macron 51(-2) / Pecresse 49(+2)
    other scenarios tested: Macron 56/Le Pen 44 and Macron 62/Zemmour 38

    OpinionWay (fieldwork 8-9/12, changes from mid-november)
    Macron 25 (+1)
    Pecresse 17 (+6)
    Le Pen 16 (-4)
    Zemmour 12 (=)
    Melenchon 8 (-1)
    Jadot 8 (=)
    Hidalgo 5 (-1)
    All others 9 (-1)

    No 2nd round question.

    The big event today is Macron's 2 hours-long taped interview that will be in prime-time on the biggest TV channel. Other candidates are furious and denounce what they see as unfairly occupying tv space (obviously they will not get the same opportunity). Maronists counter that the president is not yet a candidate and will just discuss his accomplishments as president without campaigning...
    The discussions regarding a potential left-wing primary are getting nowhere. Thus some are pushing for other candidates to come in the race such as Christiane Taubira (former Justice Minister under Hollande, famous for giving her name to the gay-marriage law and treated as an icon by the left-wing press as a woman from french Guyana). Opinion Way included her in theit poll and she got 2%.

  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    edited December 2021

    78,610 165 deaths

    Deaths still going down...

    Cases, er, not.

    Whilst it is easy for me to say HOLD THE LINE, it can't be for anyone in government what with a 4-6 day lag of infection to test.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583
    Pro_Rata said:

    maaarsh said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TimS said:

    More very encouraging SA news.

    https://twitter.com/tomtom_m/status/1471137200121257994?s=20

    Either South Africa is so different that what happens there can't read across to here, or we may be OK.

    Every week we can say this is a win.

    I think we can definitely say 'milder' now, and if excess deaths aren't just being laggy and all this still holds true by Christmas, I think we'll start being able to downward revise the UK worst case very significantly and Jan 5th will be off.
    As long as we all agree to say we've forgotten about quizgate.
    I'm more than happy to believe that Boris has never worn a party hat in his life.
    Are you alluding to Madness's "Baggy Trousers"?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,179

    Pro_Rata said:

    maaarsh said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TimS said:

    More very encouraging SA news.

    https://twitter.com/tomtom_m/status/1471137200121257994?s=20

    Either South Africa is so different that what happens there can't read across to here, or we may be OK.

    Every week we can say this is a win.

    I think we can definitely say 'milder' now, and if excess deaths aren't just being laggy and all this still holds true by Christmas, I think we'll start being able to downward revise the UK worst case very significantly and Jan 5th will be off.
    As long as we all agree to say we've forgotten about quizgate.
    I'm more than happy to believe that Boris has never worn a party hat in his life.
    Are you alluding to Madness's "Baggy Trousers"?
    That was House of Fun, which the Tory Party never got...
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