Really, really struggling to get excited about the umpteenth Lib Dem by election hype of my lifetime. Used to find these things scintillating, but bitter experience has taught me that they mean diddly squat in the great scheme of things.
The Lib Dems need a mission, not this idiotic “We’re not as bad as them!” positioning.
It's a little difficult for a smallish centrist party. They could decide to go all in on a particular policy platform and then find one of the two bigger parties steals their clothes, and in a few months' everyone's back saying "well what's the point of the Lib Dems, they're just saying the same thing as Con/Lab". Ukip and its descendants show that you can get somewhere with a message that other parties don't want to touch. In other words, you need to be unhinged to break in.
But I don’t think the Lib Dems need a “message” (let alone an unhinged one). I think they need a mission. What do they want to do? I mean, really, really, really want to do? What is their passion? Their desire? Their lust? Their golden upland? Their Jerusalem?
(Please don’t say local income tax, dog-poo-free pavements or proportional representation. I want to retain some faith in humanity by the end of the day.)
Local income tax, dog-poo-free pavements and proportional representation.
It's better for you now to lose any misplaced faith
What's he going to say...get a jab? That he will vote for vaccine passports, but he doesn't want them, but only two months ago vaccine passports didn't go far enough and we needed vaccine passport+++, where everybody took a LFT before every pub visit?
Have just attempted to order lateral flow test kit online from the NHS. Gave all my personal details accurately. The response I received was "Sorry. We cannot establish that you are genuine."
NEW: The Metropolitan Police say that despite photographic evidence of the PM potentially breaking social distancing rules by hosting a Christmas quiz they still do not intend to investigate claims of Christmas parties in Downing Street at this time. https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1470352108692119552
Another 3 year contract extension for Cressida nailed on.
For all we know there were people from the Met present at some of the parties.
...and the security detail must have been given the night off not to see the disco balls through the windows.
Really, really struggling to get excited about the umpteenth Lib Dem by election hype of my lifetime. Used to find these things scintillating, but bitter experience has taught me that they mean diddly squat in the great scheme of things.
The Lib Dems need a mission, not this idiotic “We’re not as bad as them!” positioning.
It's a little difficult for a smallish centrist party. They could decide to go all in on a particular policy platform and then find one of the two bigger parties steals their clothes, and in a few months' everyone's back saying "well what's the point of the Lib Dems, they're just saying the same thing as Con/Lab". Ukip and its descendants show that you can get somewhere with a message that other parties don't want to touch. In other words, you need to be unhinged to break in.
But I don’t think the Lib Dems need a “message” (let alone an unhinged one). I think they need a mission. What do they want to do? I mean, really, really, really want to do? What is their passion? Their desire? Their lust? Their golden upland? Their Jerusalem?
(Please don’t say local income tax, dog-poo-free pavements or proportional representation. I want to retain some faith in humanity by the end of the day.)
Local income tax, dog-poo-free pavements and proportional representation.
It's better for you now to lose any misplaced faith
Well there is an interesting point here.
The Lib Dems could do worse than have a vision for Britain where the most important things people are worried about are local income tax, dog-poo-free pavements and proportional representation.
Nostalgia plays well in UK politics. A nostalgia for a simpler time (that probably never existed) when government was broadly competent, honest and professional.
I could think of many less compelling missions than that. It's the centrist dad manifesto par excellence.
What's he going to say...get a jab? I don't really want vaccine passports, but I voted for them, despite claiming 2 months ago vaccine passports didn't go far enough and we needed vaccine passport+++, where everybody took a LFT before every pub visit?
Presumably something along the lines of "Look, we know that Boris is a dickhead, but listen to Chris Whitty and get your jab regardless."
What a cracking day to have been there. Hope you enjoyed it.
It was indeed a great weekend. Didn’t realise until we got home and watched it again on telly, just how controversial those last laps had been. Several dozen plane-loads heading back to Amsterdam with sore heads this morning, I think the green tins of Dutch beer were pretty much sold out at the circuit!
Just so long as it wasn't Oranjiboom (sp). It was tried at Essex cricket one year. Dreadful stuff!
That used to be (maybe still is) stocked at bargain prices in the little shop on campus when I was at uni. We used to have a song "Oranjeboom, oranjeboom, it's not that bad!" (catchier than it sounds, after a few cans). Mind you, that was in comparison to other things in the similar price bracket, but more expensive, Fosters probably. Can't say I've drunk it since then. In the second year we discovered a Polish shop that actually sold drinkable Polish beer at bargain prices.
To be fair, Oranjeboom isn't the worst 'lager' I've ever tried. I once tried the 2% Fosters they sell at Sydney Cricket Ground. I found it difficult to belive anyone could tolerate enough of the stuff to get drunk.
Is that not exactly the point?
They were selling to England fans too, so shouldn't have been. Drowning sorrows and all that, although England were doing quite well at the time.
One thing that gets missed on the sports awards is the number of "competitors" to reach the top in a particular sport.
Football - Global game with hundreds of millions of participants, millions who train regularly and take it seriously, tens of thousands of professionals Tennis - Global game with tens of millions of participants, but only a few hundred tournament professionals Boxing - Tens of thousands of professionals Swimming - Mass participation and thousands of serious competitors through US collegiate and Chinese state systems Diving - Small sport with dozens of serious competitors, few professionals Paralympic Cycling - Small sport with dozens of serious competitors, few professionals
Sterling, getting to somewhere around the 100th best footballer in the world is actually a more difficult achievement than winning Olympic diving titles or indeed an F1 title.
Given the amount of contradictory info contradictory knocking around, could someone on PB clarify for me that as someone who's been double vaxxed with AZ, my situation is effectively the same as an unvaccinated person when it comes to the new variant?
Have just attempted to order lateral flow test kit online from the NHS. Gave all my personal details accurately. The response I received was "Sorry. We cannot establish that you are genuine."
Are you genuine?
Do I now request a truth serum test kit?
They'll be round to see you shortly.
Should I take off the wig and the false moustache?
is that because currently they can have their cake (EU passports, free movement, UK economic power, opportunities in UK and EU) and eat it......?
Probly. Why BJ and co don't offer a similar lash up to Scotland I don't know, would keep the ramshackle show on the road for another 20 years (or at least well past BJ's increasingly parlous tenure). Possibly something psychological to do with keeping the home island 'pure'.
Since when did Scotland have a land border with an EU nation and a history of terrorism like NI?
As it is Scotland has also got a trade deal with the EU too anyway, Boris did not go for No Deal did he as some hardline Leavers wanted so stop complaining! Scotland is part of the island of GB like England, Scotland and Wales, geographically it is different to NI too, hence it is the UK of GB and NI, Scotland is just a part of GB.
Given the SNP failed to get a majority in May despite Brexit most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal either
FUDHY thinks that terrorism should be rewarded. Who’d’ve thunk that of a Franco fan?
Scots not bothered about Brexit?
“How well or badly do you think the government are doing at handling Britain's exit from the European Union?”
Very well 0 Fairly well 21% Fairly badly 28% Very badly 42%
“In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”
So no different to the 60% who voted Remain in 2016 and still far fewer Scots back Scexit post Boris' EU trade deal than voted Remain in every poll.
Like NI most Scots in most polls want to stay in the UK even post Brexit
You said “most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal”. That is palpable nonsense, as illustrated by the polling referred to.
Zero respondents think that the UK government is handling the exit from the EU very well. That’s in a survey where 22% of respondents are Scottish Conservative voters. Not one of them is satisfied. How do you think the other 78% feel?
You do know where this is going to inevitably end?
'Well, even if most Scots are bothered by the Brexit deal, BJ and English Tories über alles!'
FUDHY’s obituary: “He believed ctrl-v would save the Union.”
Given the amount of contradictory info contradictory knocking around, could someone on PB clarify for me that as someone who's been double vaxxed with AZ, my situation is effectively the same as an unvaccinated person when it comes to the new variant?
Really, really struggling to get excited about the umpteenth Lib Dem by election hype of my lifetime. Used to find these things scintillating, but bitter experience has taught me that they mean diddly squat in the great scheme of things.
The Lib Dems need a mission, not this idiotic “We’re not as bad as them!” positioning.
It's a little difficult for a smallish centrist party. They could decide to go all in on a particular policy platform and then find one of the two bigger parties steals their clothes, and in a few months' everyone's back saying "well what's the point of the Lib Dems, they're just saying the same thing as Con/Lab". Ukip and its descendants show that you can get somewhere with a message that other parties don't want to touch. In other words, you need to be unhinged to break in.
But I don’t think the Lib Dems need a “message” (let alone an unhinged one). I think they need a mission. What do they want to do? I mean, really, really, really want to do? What is their passion? Their desire? Their lust? Their golden upland? Their Jerusalem?
(Please don’t say local income tax, dog-poo-free pavements or proportional representation. I want to retain some faith in humanity by the end of the day.)
Local income tax, dog-poo-free pavements and proportional representation.
It's better for you now to lose any misplaced faith
Well there is an interesting point here.
The Lib Dems could do worse than have a vision for Britain where the most important things people are worried about are local income tax, dog-poo-free pavements and proportional representation.
Nostalgia plays well in UK politics. A nostalgia for a simpler time (that probably never existed) when government was broadly competent, honest and professional.
I could think of many less compelling missions than that. It's the centrist dad manifesto par excellence.
Wasn't that UKIP vision? Hasn't turned out well, though.
Given the amount of contradictory info contradictory knocking around, could someone on PB clarify for me that as someone who's been double vaxxed with AZ, my situation is effectively the same as an unvaccinated person when it comes to the new variant?
Yes with respect to infection, no with respect to serious illness and death, is my understanding.
Given the amount of contradictory info contradictory knocking around, could someone on PB clarify for me that as someone who's been double vaxxed with AZ, my situation is effectively the same as an unvaccinated person when it comes to the new variant?
Kinda.....In a very very very small sample real world sample, double vaxxed AZN individuals had a 0% efficacy against symptomatic Omicron. But the error bars were huge. So in terms of stopping you getting it, you should probably consider yourself as unvaccinated.
However....then we don't know how well it protects if you can't it, the likelihood you still get a protective effect against serious illness.
So against catching it, at best not much, against serious illness, more than unvaccinated person.
What's he going to say...get a jab? That he will vote for vaccine passports, but he doesn't want them, but only two months ago vaccine passports didn't go far enough and we needed vaccine passport+++, where everybody took a LFT before every pub visit?
If I were writing Starmer's statement, I'd make it statesmanlike and focused on dealing with the pandemic, almost as though he were PM. I'd slip in a few barbs making it clear that the fact that we are saddled with a mendacious clown in No 10, who doesn't follow his own rules, isn't a reason to ignore the advice or flout the regulations. Pretty much the message that Labour, and in particular Wes Streeting, has been putting out, with the framing that Boris is an irrelevance.
Really, really struggling to get excited about the umpteenth Lib Dem by election hype of my lifetime. Used to find these things scintillating, but bitter experience has taught me that they mean diddly squat in the great scheme of things.
The Lib Dems need a mission, not this idiotic “We’re not as bad as them!” positioning.
It's a little difficult for a smallish centrist party. They could decide to go all in on a particular policy platform and then find one of the two bigger parties steals their clothes, and in a few months' everyone's back saying "well what's the point of the Lib Dems, they're just saying the same thing as Con/Lab". Ukip and its descendants show that you can get somewhere with a message that other parties don't want to touch. In other words, you need to be unhinged to break in.
But I don’t think the Lib Dems need a “message” (let alone an unhinged one). I think they need a mission. What do they want to do? I mean, really, really, really want to do? What is their passion? Their desire? Their lust? Their golden upland? Their Jerusalem?
(Please don’t say local income tax, dog-poo-free pavements or proportional representation. I want to retain some faith in humanity by the end of the day.)
Local income tax, dog-poo-free pavements and proportional representation.
It's better for you now to lose any misplaced faith
Well there is an interesting point here.
The Lib Dems could do worse than have a vision for Britain where the most important things people are worried about are local income tax, dog-poo-free pavements and proportional representation.
Nostalgia plays well in UK politics. A nostalgia for a simpler time (that probably never existed) when government was broadly competent, honest and professional.
I could think of many less compelling missions than that. It's the centrist dad manifesto par excellence.
Wasn't that UKIP vision? Hasn't turned out well, though.
UKIP version was for angry grandad not centrist dad.
Boris Johnson can't even be clear in a pre-recorded video, ffs he is useless
He was very clear.
He just wasn't truthful
I expect this one was quite deliberate to extend the discussions and coverage about getting boosters, which both helps boosting and distracts from partygate.
Yet more astute observations from Westminster’s favourite barrister: Jolyon Maugham got so excited by the Mirror‘s Zoom quiz picture last night that he managed to confuse Downing Street curtains with a bin bag, implying the PM had tried covering up a CCTV camera. Would anything say “there’s nothing to see here” quite like sticking a bin bag over a camera, only to then hop straight onto a video call?
Given the amount of contradictory info contradictory knocking around, could someone on PB clarify for me that as someone who's been double vaxxed with AZ, my situation is effectively the same as an unvaccinated person when it comes to the new variant?
My understanding is that AZN, AZN, Moderna is the best combo of all.
Given the amount of contradictory info contradictory knocking around, could someone on PB clarify for me that as someone who's been double vaxxed with AZ, my situation is effectively the same as an unvaccinated person when it comes to the new variant?
My understanding is that AZN, AZN, Moderna is the best combo of all.
It seems awfully early to be saying Omicron is no danger, I remember the same thing about Delta and COVID itself before that.
The same people who predicted we wouldn't have another lockdown, wouldn't have any more restrictions are the same people saying Omicron is no threat.
I would love to be wrong
By this stage of Delta we were seeing vast mortality in India, their health service keeling over and reports of multiple child deaths. We're just not seeing anything like that from South Africa. While this may be partly about lag, I think what stats there are look pretty encouraging.
That's not the same as "no danger" of course, or "no threat". But "less threat", potentially. Perhaps even a net positive for several countries that were otherwise facing a Delta wave this winter.
@Philip_Thompson you're fooling nobody but yourself by claiming you're not partisan. Which is fine as it goes but it is hilarious to see you accusing me of being partisan.
There's a difference between opinionated and partisan.
If I'm partisan why have I called for Boris to be ousted? Why did I oppose Plan B? Why did I back Rashford's School Meals campaign before it was popular? Why did I oppose the National Insurance tax rise? Why have I said I want North Shropshire to vote Lib Dem? Why did I oppose May's Brexit Deal?
You take the Labour line no matter what. I stick to my own opinions.
You were laughably claiming that Boris Johnson was one of the greatest PMs of all time not that long ago IIRC. You also even more laughably said that I was a "bad judge of character" because I didn't share your unquestioning fanboy view of Johnson.
You don't stick to your opinions. You are a weathervane, but a rather rusty one that takes a while to move. Congratulations, though on finally realising what many of us have known for years: Boris Johnson is unfit to be PM.
I stand by that.
He should be ousted but he is one of the most consequential PMs of all time and still one of the best in my lifetime. Even if he has flaws, so do all PMs, they're all only human.
I'm not so naïve as to think that politicians are honest or are some sort of angel, or that Boris is unique in not being so.
Philip you really think he is "one of the best PMs" of your lifetime? You are 40 so we have Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May.
Who are the others?
39.
My list is Thatcher, Boris, Cameron, Major, Blair, Brown, May.
Thatcher is undeniably the best and in a league of her own.
Then as the OK ones I'd have Boris and Cameron. Not sure which order I'd rank those in the end. I sometimes alternate those around.
Then we get to the crap ones: Major - Tore the party asunder, made the mess of ratifying Maastricht without a Referendum setting up decades of divisions and leading eventually to Brexit and Blair's landslide. On the plus side he handed over the economy in a decent state to Blair. Blair - Massive election winner but everything he touched turned awful in the end, allowed Brown to destroy the economy. Brown - Destroyed the economy, handed over the nation with a trashed economy leading to a decade of austerity. Signed the Lisbon Treaty violating the referendum pledge again leading to Brexit. No redeeming features at all. May - What needs to be said?
"Massive election winner but everything he touched turned awful"
ROTFLMAO
Devolution to kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead. Invading Iraq to get rid of Weapons of Mass Destruction. Gordon Brown as Chancellor of the Exchequer trashing the economy.
Is that a legacy of success?
In fairness, it wasn’t Tony Blair who coined the infamous “kill nationalism stone dead” quote. In face, Blair was a huge deco-skeptic. He hugely watered down the Constitutional Convention plan, and was sorely tempted to ditch the entire thing post-victory. (In retrospect, he probably should).
No, I think the coiner of the quote was George Robertson, or some other Scottish Labour total dud of that era.
It was indeed GR - the idea being that voters would see no need to keep voting SNP and would turn in gratitude to SLAB and keep sending umpteen Labour MPs to Westminster. Some at least of whom would also have come up through Holyrood which would provide plenty of patronage.
TB did try to wreck the devolution referendum by asking the taxation question - only to find that it scored a majority yes as well.
But that wasn’t the only sabotage attempt by Blair. Apparently Donald Dewar had a traumatic few weeks, after the 97 election landslide, trying to retain as much as possible of the Constitutional Convention blueprint. Blair wanted it reduced to something resembling the ridiculous 70s Assembly scheme, or ditch it completely. To his credit, Dewar managed to save most of the plan.
Boris Johnson can't even be clear in a pre-recorded video, ffs he is useless
He is clear and quite frankly this is pathetically stupid nitpicking.
The terminology on the dates since this has began has always been "to offer".
Why? Because if the commitment was that everyone would be vaccinated we wouldn't have had even the first round of vaccinations done, let alone second jabs, later phases or boosters.
Shame Hamilton wasn't on the SPOTY list. But for an extreme bit of bad luck he'd have beaten Max, and he's shown a good amount of grace in his narrow defeat (His team aren't imo, but that's their purview). I'd have voted for him this year.
is that because currently they can have their cake (EU passports, free movement, UK economic power, opportunities in UK and EU) and eat it......?
Probly. Why BJ and co don't offer a similar lash up to Scotland I don't know, would keep the ramshackle show on the road for another 20 years (or at least well past BJ's increasingly parlous tenure). Possibly something psychological to do with keeping the home island 'pure'.
Since when did Scotland have a land border with an EU nation and a history of terrorism like NI?
As it is Scotland has also got a trade deal with the EU too anyway, Boris did not go for No Deal did he as some hardline Leavers wanted so stop complaining! Scotland is part of the island of GB like England, Scotland and Wales, geographically it is different to NI too, hence it is the UK of GB and NI, Scotland is just a part of GB.
Given the SNP failed to get a majority in May despite Brexit most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal either
FUDHY thinks that terrorism should be rewarded. Who’d’ve thunk that of a Franco fan?
Scots not bothered about Brexit?
“How well or badly do you think the government are doing at handling Britain's exit from the European Union?”
Very well 0 Fairly well 21% Fairly badly 28% Very badly 42%
“In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”
So no different to the 60% who voted Remain in 2016 and still far fewer Scots back Scexit post Boris' EU trade deal than voted Remain in every poll.
Like NI most Scots in most polls want to stay in the UK even post Brexit
You said “most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal”. That is palpable nonsense, as illustrated by the polling referred to.
Zero respondents think that the UK government is handling the exit from the EU very well. That’s in a survey where 22% of respondents are Scottish Conservative voters. Not one of them is satisfied. How do you think the other 78% feel?
Clearly they aren't given the SNP failed to get a Holyrood majority in May despite Brexit.
Plus as long as we have a UK Tory majority government an indyref2 will never be allowed anyway
Given the amount of contradictory info contradictory knocking around, could someone on PB clarify for me that as someone who's been double vaxxed with AZ, my situation is effectively the same as an unvaccinated person when it comes to the new variant?
Yes with respect to infection, no with respect to serious illness and death, is my understanding.
1. Serious illness and death stats is what should be widely reported not symptomatic disease 2. Another key difference vs an unvaxxed person is you are one jab away from restoring good protection vs symptomatic disease as well, whereas an unvaxxed person is 3 jabs over a 6 months period away from getting to that level. 3. A third key difference, is over the last year a higher proportion of the unvaxxed would have died or got life changing complications. They need to be included for a fair comparison.
So two jabs is a much better situation than unvaxxed.
NEW: PM interview for broadcasters - One person infected by Omicron has died - PM, asked three times in I/v, will not rule out further restrictions before Xmas - On parties: "I can tell you I broke no rules" - Has he referred himself to Simon Case for Dec 15 quiz? Yes - https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1470358202898386948
So, BoZo needed a big flashy announcement to take the heat of everything else he has fucked up...
And, he fucked it up.
Awesome.
I don't agree, if nothing else it has spurred a lot more people to book boosters, to get LFTs, and to try and get their jab ASAP. It will be great if we can give everyone eligble a booster before New Year, but even if that goal is not met it is still well worth getting more people jabbed, and have those jabs done sooner.
It's not a pass/fail issue, where if we miss the ambitious target we have failed. Anything that pushes more people to act is worth doing.
If you go to the constituency, seem posters in farmers fields and most importantly listen to people in the shops you wouldn't bet against the Lib Dems winning. Can be wrong of course but .......... The only minor blockage is the Labour candidate who seems to be a bit of a lone wolf, not apparently following the central party line.
Boris - "So I think the idea that this is somehow a milder version of the virus, I think that's something we need to set on one side"
This is something he also said last night. Same with Javid.
They have clearly been briefed by the eggheads. Now if they are correct, or it is about nudge, is a different matter. But clearly the eggheads are worried about the media narrative of "its just mild".
It does feel again like the mistake of original Wuhan outbreak, where the 90% mild was repeated ad infinitum. To the extent where the actual author of the original report had to do media rounds to explain "mild" = "not hospitalised" in his report.
is that because currently they can have their cake (EU passports, free movement, UK economic power, opportunities in UK and EU) and eat it......?
Probly. Why BJ and co don't offer a similar lash up to Scotland I don't know, would keep the ramshackle show on the road for another 20 years (or at least well past BJ's increasingly parlous tenure). Possibly something psychological to do with keeping the home island 'pure'.
Since when did Scotland have a land border with an EU nation and a history of terrorism like NI?
As it is Scotland has also got a trade deal with the EU too anyway, Boris did not go for No Deal did he as some hardline Leavers wanted so stop complaining!
Shut up and go away, that BJ/HYUFD plan to save the Union in full.
Given the amount of contradictory info contradictory knocking around, could someone on PB clarify for me that as someone who's been double vaxxed with AZ, my situation is effectively the same as an unvaccinated person when it comes to the new variant?
My understanding is that AZN, AZN, Moderna is the best combo of all.
At least one person has died with the Omicron variant in the UK - PM Earlier, Health Secretary Sajid Javid said 10 people were in hospital with the variant but he wasn't aware of any deaths.
But during a visit to a vaccine clinic in Paddington, west London, Boris Johnson confirmed one person has died.
"Sadly yes Omicron is producing hospitalisations and sadly at least one patient has been confirmed to have died with Omicron," he said.
"So I think the idea that this is somehow a milder version of the virus, I think that's something we need to set on one side and just recognise the sheer pace at which it accelerates through the population. So the best thing we can do is all get our boosters."
Yes and already the UK has had more adults with booster jabs then any other big European nation and by January most adults should have had their boosters
So, BoZo needed a big flashy announcement to take the heat of everything else he has fucked up...
And, he fucked it up.
Awesome.
I don't agree, if nothing else it has spurred a lot more people to book boosters, to get LFTs, and to try and get their jab ASAP. It will be great if we can give everyone eligble a booster before New Year, but even if that goal is not met it is still well worth getting more people jabbed, and have those jabs done sooner.
It's not a pass/fail issue, where if we miss the ambitious target we have failed. Anything that pushes more people to act is worth doing.
Yeah, this is a lie I can't get worked up about even as a big Boris critic. From a political tactics point of view it is typically cynical but this time smart as well and the benefits to the booster programme justify a white lie here.
It seems awfully early to be saying Omicron is no danger, I remember the same thing about Delta and COVID itself before that.
The same people who predicted we wouldn't have another lockdown, wouldn't have any more restrictions are the same people saying Omicron is no threat.
I would love to be wrong
By this stage of Delta we were seeing vast mortality in India, their health service keeling over and reports of multiple child deaths. We're just not seeing anything like that from South Africa. While this may be partly about lag, I think what stats there are look pretty encouraging.
That's not the same as "no danger" of course, or "no threat". But "less threat", potentially. Perhaps even a net positive for several countries that were otherwise facing a Delta wave this winter.
I think that last point really depends on how Omicron presents in people with no immunity from vaccines or prior infection. SA had already hit some level of herd immunity with Beta and Delta waves plus whatever vaccination they've done. My worry in Europe is for the eastern countries and Germany where there's a lot of older people who haven't been vaccinated and won't have natural immunity either. Greece is another one that stands out.
What we can say right now is that in a largely immunised population Omicron looks to present significantly fewer hospitalisations than Delta did last year, that shows in the emerging European data and in the pretty solid SA comparisons to their Delta and Beta waves. We don't yet know how severe it will be for people with no antibodies and no t-cell immunity, it could be just as bad as the original virus (1 in 20 hospitalised) but maybe not as bad as Delta (1 in 14 hospitalised) for those people. What looks like will be really key in the UK is that like SA, we've got a wall of natural immunity in the vaccine unwilling to bring those rates down to maybe 1 in 100 or 1 in 200 hospitalised, which, while significant, will be manageable for a few weeks.
Omicron likely (As did Delta) ranges from barely symptomatic to a week in bed for most people - all classified as "mild". But the idea it's going to be mild for everyone is for the birds.
Given the amount of contradictory info contradictory knocking around, could someone on PB clarify for me that as someone who's been double vaxxed with AZ, my situation is effectively the same as an unvaccinated person when it comes to the new variant?
In terms of symptomatic infection, yes, but we'd still expect you to have substantial protection against serious illness that would require hospitalization and oxygen treatment.
So, BoZo needed a big flashy announcement to take the heat of everything else he has fucked up...
And, he fucked it up.
Awesome.
I don't agree, if nothing else it has spurred a lot more people to book boosters, to get LFTs, and to try and get their jab ASAP. It will be great if we can give everyone eligble a booster before New Year, but even if that goal is not met it is still well worth getting more people jabbed, and have those jabs done sooner.
It's not a pass/fail issue, where if we miss the ambitious target we have failed. Anything that pushes more people to act is worth doing.
Deliver a garbled incoherent or factually incorrect mis-message, so people in doubt research the real message for themselves. Genius!
Omicron likely (As did Delta) ranges from barely symptomatic to a week in bed for most people - all classified as "mild". But the idea it's going to be mild for everyone is for the birds.
I can absolutely believe if you are triple jabbed, no underlying conditions etc that protection is good and will only present as mild. Thus, I am personally not particularly worried.
But as I just had to tell my vulnerable elderly parents, you need to be f##king careful, as break through for them, that could be a different ballgame. They watch too much of the news channels and convinced its morphed into just a cold overnight.
If you go to the constituency, seem posters in farmers fields and most importantly listen to people in the shops you wouldn't bet against the Lib Dems winning. Can be wrong of course but .......... The only minor blockage is the Labour candidate who seems to be a bit of a lone wolf, not apparently following the central party line.
Lib Dem posters in farmers fields ???
The Tories have had it lol. Farm posters have always been Tory.
Boris - "So I think the idea that this is somehow a milder version of the virus, I think that's something we need to set on one side"
This is something he also said last night. Same with Javid.
They have clearly been briefed by the eggheads. Now if they are correct, or it is about nudge, is a different matter. But clearly the eggheads are worried about the media narrative of "its just mild".
It does feel again like the mistake of original Wuhan outbreak, where the 90% mild was repeated ad infinitum. To the extent where the actual author of the original report had to do media rounds to explain "mild" = "not hospitalised" in his report.
The trouble is mild in this context might mean "as bad as normal flu", and even that is at the low end of expectations. If normal flu was as transmissible as Omicron, and if our flu vaccine was a relative dud, and if people didn't have a lifetime of prior infections we would still be extremely worried about normal flu sweeping through the whole population in a matter of weeks. It would not be "stock up on Lemsip", it would be "shut down everything".
is that because currently they can have their cake (EU passports, free movement, UK economic power, opportunities in UK and EU) and eat it......?
Probly. Why BJ and co don't offer a similar lash up to Scotland I don't know, would keep the ramshackle show on the road for another 20 years (or at least well past BJ's increasingly parlous tenure). Possibly something psychological to do with keeping the home island 'pure'.
Since when did Scotland have a land border with an EU nation and a history of terrorism like NI?
As it is Scotland has also got a trade deal with the EU too anyway, Boris did not go for No Deal did he as some hardline Leavers wanted so stop complaining! Scotland is part of the island of GB like England, Scotland and Wales, geographically it is different to NI too, hence it is the UK of GB and NI, Scotland is just a part of GB.
Given the SNP failed to get a majority in May despite Brexit most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal either
FUDHY thinks that terrorism should be rewarded. Who’d’ve thunk that of a Franco fan?
Scots not bothered about Brexit?
“How well or badly do you think the government are doing at handling Britain's exit from the European Union?”
Very well 0 Fairly well 21% Fairly badly 28% Very badly 42%
“In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”
So no different to the 60% who voted Remain in 2016 and still far fewer Scots back Scexit post Boris' EU trade deal than voted Remain in every poll.
Like NI most Scots in most polls want to stay in the UK even post Brexit
You said “most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal”. That is palpable nonsense, as illustrated by the polling referred to.
Zero respondents think that the UK government is handling the exit from the EU very well. That’s in a survey where 22% of respondents are Scottish Conservative voters. Not one of them is satisfied. How do you think the other 78% feel?
Clearly they aren't given the SNP failed to get a Holyrood majority in May despite Brexit.
Plus as long as we have a UK Tory majority government an indyref2 will never be allowed anyway
You’re my ctrl-v hero.
I’m looking forward to the Christmas special of your greatest hits.
Mike seems to be engaging in some late expectations management.
North Shropshire should be a certain LD gain. Governments don't win by-elections and when was the last successful Tory defence against a Lib Dems challenge in a by-election? How many consecutive by-elections have they lost versus LD challengers now.
In the circumstances, with the by-election while the Government is pissing off its own supporters and when the by-election was caused by a scandal, there's no way people should be turning out to vote Conservative.
Lib Dem gain nailed on. I'd vote Lib Dem if I was in this seat on Thursday, who here wouldn't?
You didn't answer my question the other day about how often government's successfully defend by-elections.
If it helps, I've gone and looked.
Since WWII, a quick tot-up seems to be 192 defences, 74 losses.
Splitting that down to whether the Government stayed in at the following election or was replaced by the opposition:
- In Parliaments where the Government retained power at the subsequent GE: 120 defences, 28 losses - In Parliaments where the Government were defeated at the subsequent GE: 72 defences, 46 losses.
If we look just since 1979, it's 32 defences and 36 losses, which break down 28/22 when the Government retain power subsequently and 4/12 when they do not.
(May be a bit off by one or two here and there because it's a quick count)
Thanks, much appreciated, I intended to go through them all at some point.
So far this Parliament the government is at 1 hold and 1 loss, so if the Lib Dems take North Staffordshire, and the Tories hold David Amess' seat, then they will be 2-2 and not yet ready to panic.
Boris - "So I think the idea that this is somehow a milder version of the virus, I think that's something we need to set on one side"
This is something he also said last night. Same with Javid.
They have clearly been briefed by the eggheads. Now if they are correct, or it is about nudge, is a different matter. But clearly the eggheads are worried about the media narrative of "its just mild".
It does feel again like the mistake of original Wuhan outbreak, where the 90% mild was repeated ad infinitum. To the extent where the actual author of the original report had to do media rounds to explain "mild" = "not hospitalised" in his report.
The trouble is mild in this context might mean "as bad as normal flu", and even that is at the low end of expectations. If normal flu was as transmissible as Omicron, and if our flu vaccine was a relative dud, and if people didn't have a lifetime of prior infections we would still be extremely worried about normal flu sweeping through the whole population in a matter of weeks. It would not be "stock up on Lemsip", it would be "shut down everything".
Its massively irresponsible for the likes of Burley still to be pushing this narrative. As Javid had to tell her, don't you remember the original outbreak, we didn't have any real number of deaths for weeks.
Now, again, we are in way better position this time and either it is milder / vaccine (and prior infection) make it less dangerous on an individual level, but still its totally irresponsible to be talking about its just a cold for everybody.
If you go to the constituency, seem posters in farmers fields and most importantly listen to people in the shops you wouldn't bet against the Lib Dems winning. Can be wrong of course but .......... The only minor blockage is the Labour candidate who seems to be a bit of a lone wolf, not apparently following the central party line.
Lib Dem posters in farmers fields ???
The Tories have had it lol. Farm posters have always been Tory.
I wonder if the NFU's grief over pigs etc has got through.
If you go to the constituency, seem posters in farmers fields and most importantly listen to people in the shops you wouldn't bet against the Lib Dems winning. Can be wrong of course but .......... The only minor blockage is the Labour candidate who seems to be a bit of a lone wolf, not apparently following the central party line.
Lib Dem posters in farmers fields ???
The Tories have had it lol. Farm posters have always been Tory.
Boris - "So I think the idea that this is somehow a milder version of the virus, I think that's something we need to set on one side"
This is something he also said last night. Same with Javid.
They have clearly been briefed by the eggheads. Now if they are correct, or it is about nudge, is a different matter. But clearly the eggheads are worried about the media narrative of "its just mild".
It does feel again like the mistake of original Wuhan outbreak, where the 90% mild was repeated ad infinitum. To the extent where the actual author of the original report had to do media rounds to explain "mild" = "not hospitalised" in his report.
The trouble is mild in this context might mean "as bad as normal flu", and even that is at the low end of expectations. If normal flu was as transmissible as Omicron, and if our flu vaccine was a relative dud, and if people didn't have a lifetime of prior infections we would still be extremely worried about normal flu sweeping through the whole population in a matter of weeks. It would not be "stock up on Lemsip", it would be "shut down everything".
Its massively irresponsible for the likes of Burley still to be pushing this narrative. As Javid had to tell her, don't you remember the original outbreak, we didn't have any real number of deaths for weeks.
Now, again, we are in way better position this time, but still its totally irresponsible to be talking about its just a cold for everybody.
There were over 6 weeks between the first confirmed case and first death in the US.
Mike seems to be engaging in some late expectations management.
North Shropshire should be a certain LD gain. Governments don't win by-elections and when was the last successful Tory defence against a Lib Dems challenge in a by-election? How many consecutive by-elections have they lost versus LD challengers now.
In the circumstances, with the by-election while the Government is pissing off its own supporters and when the by-election was caused by a scandal, there's no way people should be turning out to vote Conservative.
Lib Dem gain nailed on. I'd vote Lib Dem if I was in this seat on Thursday, who here wouldn't?
You didn't answer my question the other day about how often government's successfully defend by-elections.
If it helps, I've gone and looked.
Since WWII, a quick tot-up seems to be 192 defences, 74 losses.
Splitting that down to whether the Government stayed in at the following election or was replaced by the opposition:
- In Parliaments where the Government retained power at the subsequent GE: 120 defences, 28 losses - In Parliaments where the Government were defeated at the subsequent GE: 72 defences, 46 losses.
If we look just since 1979, it's 32 defences and 36 losses, which break down 28/22 when the Government retain power subsequently and 4/12 when they do not.
(May be a bit off by one or two here and there because it's a quick count)
Thanks, much appreciated, I intended to go through them all at some point.
So far this Parliament the government is at 1 hold and 1 loss, so if the Lib Dems take North Staffordshire, and the Tories hold David Amess' seat, then they will be 2-2 and not yet ready to panic.
The Govt. had a win as well; Hartlepool. That was 'unusual; to say the least.
Boris - "So I think the idea that this is somehow a milder version of the virus, I think that's something we need to set on one side"
This is something he also said last night. Same with Javid.
They have clearly been briefed by the eggheads. Now if they are correct, or it is about nudge, is a different matter. But clearly the eggheads are worried about the media narrative of "its just mild".
It does feel again like the mistake of original Wuhan outbreak, where the 90% mild was repeated ad infinitum. To the extent where the actual author of the original report had to do media rounds to explain "mild" = "not hospitalised" in his report.
The trouble is mild in this context might mean "as bad as normal flu", and even that is at the low end of expectations. If normal flu was as transmissible as Omicron, and if our flu vaccine was a relative dud, and if people didn't have a lifetime of prior infections we would still be extremely worried about normal flu sweeping through the whole population in a matter of weeks. It would not be "stock up on Lemsip", it would be "shut down everything".
Its massively irresponsible for the likes of Burley still to be pushing this narrative. As Javid had to tell her, don't you remember the original outbreak, we didn't have any real number of deaths for weeks.
Now, again, we are in way better position this time, but still its totally irresponsible to be talking about its just a cold for everybody.
There were over 6 weeks between the first confirmed case and first death in the US.
Now we have had a death from Omicron, in a week's time the media will probably flip to the other extreme....everybody is dying from Omicron...arrrrrhhhhhhh...
If you go to the constituency, seem posters in farmers fields and most importantly listen to people in the shops you wouldn't bet against the Lib Dems winning. Can be wrong of course but .......... The only minor blockage is the Labour candidate who seems to be a bit of a lone wolf, not apparently following the central party line.
Given the amount of contradictory info contradictory knocking around, could someone on PB clarify for me that as someone who's been double vaxxed with AZ, my situation is effectively the same as an unvaccinated person when it comes to the new variant?
Omicron likely (As did Delta) ranges from barely symptomatic to a week in bed for most people - all classified as "mild". But the idea it's going to be mild for everyone is for the birds.
I can absolutely believe if you are triple jabbed, no underlying conditions etc that protection is good and will only present as mild. Thus, I am personally not particularly worried.
But as I just had to tell my vulnerable elderly parents, you need to be f##king careful, as break through for them, that could be a different ballgame. They watch too much of the news channels and convinced its morphed into just a cold overnight.
Not necessarily true, Omicron may be inherently less deadly than Delta plus we've got a lot more cumulative immunity to the virus through vaccines and prior infections. Everyone who I've spoken to says it's the latter effect which makes viruses less deadly over time, we just build up immunity and our bodies learn to recognise and eradicate infected cells.
I think we all need to accept that there doesn't exist any world where everyone doesn't get COVID multiple times. The mantra has always needed to be jab early, jab often. I wouldn't be surprised if the government does one last round of gen 1 boosters for over 50s, we've got 35m ordered from Pfizer for H1 delivery. Vaccines are like a refresher course for immune systems, I'd rather have one than not.
Given the amount of contradictory info contradictory knocking around, could someone on PB clarify for me that as someone who's been double vaxxed with AZ, my situation is effectively the same as an unvaccinated person when it comes to the new variant?
Even if double vaccination doesn’t prevent you getting the virus, it will significantly reduce the risk of serious disease, chronic illness or distressing death.
Omicron likely (As did Delta) ranges from barely symptomatic to a week in bed for most people - all classified as "mild". But the idea it's going to be mild for everyone is for the birds.
I can absolutely believe if you are triple jabbed, no underlying conditions etc that protection is good and will only present as mild. Thus, I am personally not particularly worried.
But as I just had to tell my vulnerable elderly parents, you need to be f##king careful, as break through for them, that could be a different ballgame. They watch too much of the news channels and convinced its morphed into just a cold overnight.
Not necessarily true, Omicron may be inherently less deadly than Delta plus we've got a lot more cumulative immunity to the virus through vaccines and prior infections. Everyone who I've spoken to says it's the latter effect which makes viruses less deadly over time, we just build up immunity and our bodies learn to recognise and eradicate infected cells.
I think we all need to accept that there doesn't exist any world where everyone doesn't get COVID multiple times. The mantra has always needed to be jab early, jab often. I wouldn't be surprised if the government does one last round of gen 1 boosters for over 50s, we've got 35m ordered from Pfizer for H1 delivery. Vaccines are like a refresher course for immune systems, I'd rather have one than not.
That isn't quite what I am saying. I have long come to the realisation that everybody will catch it at some point, probably multiple times. The danger on an individual level for fit and healthy triple jabbed people will be very very low, and I am not personally worried.
What I am saying is even if it far less deadly, and as I say I can believe that, some of the media narrative is that it has overnight morphed into a cold, which it definitely hasn't. If you are elderly and vulnerable for the next 2 months it is going to be absolutely everywhere in massive concentrations and you should be careful, as it will be them dying from it.
If you were immunocompromised and there was a party of 100 people, which most of them had really bad flu, even with a flu shot you would be a rather stupid going to it. I see Omicron a bit like that.
is that because currently they can have their cake (EU passports, free movement, UK economic power, opportunities in UK and EU) and eat it......?
Probly. Why BJ and co don't offer a similar lash up to Scotland I don't know, would keep the ramshackle show on the road for another 20 years (or at least well past BJ's increasingly parlous tenure). Possibly something psychological to do with keeping the home island 'pure'.
Since when did Scotland have a land border with an EU nation and a history of terrorism like NI?
As it is Scotland has also got a trade deal with the EU too anyway, Boris did not go for No Deal did he as some hardline Leavers wanted so stop complaining! Scotland is part of the island of GB like England, Scotland and Wales, geographically it is different to NI too, hence it is the UK of GB and NI, Scotland is just a part of GB.
Given the SNP failed to get a majority in May despite Brexit most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal either
FUDHY thinks that terrorism should be rewarded. Who’d’ve thunk that of a Franco fan?
Scots not bothered about Brexit?
“How well or badly do you think the government are doing at handling Britain's exit from the European Union?”
Very well 0 Fairly well 21% Fairly badly 28% Very badly 42%
“In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”
So no different to the 60% who voted Remain in 2016 and still far fewer Scots back Scexit post Boris' EU trade deal than voted Remain in every poll.
Like NI most Scots in most polls want to stay in the UK even post Brexit
You said “most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal”. That is palpable nonsense, as illustrated by the polling referred to.
Zero respondents think that the UK government is handling the exit from the EU very well. That’s in a survey where 22% of respondents are Scottish Conservative voters. Not one of them is satisfied. How do you think the other 78% feel?
Clearly they aren't given the SNP failed to get a Holyrood majority in May despite Brexit.
Plus as long as we have a UK Tory majority government an indyref2 will never be allowed anyway
You’re my ctrl-v hero.
I’m looking forward to the Christmas special of your greatest hits.
On the first day of Christmas, HYUFD sent to me, Clearly they aren't given the SNP failed to get a Holyrood majority in May despite Brexit. One the second day of Christmas, HYUFD sent to me, Plus as long as we have a UK Tory majority government an indyref2 will never be allowed anyway.
is that because currently they can have their cake (EU passports, free movement, UK economic power, opportunities in UK and EU) and eat it......?
Probly. Why BJ and co don't offer a similar lash up to Scotland I don't know, would keep the ramshackle show on the road for another 20 years (or at least well past BJ's increasingly parlous tenure). Possibly something psychological to do with keeping the home island 'pure'.
Since when did Scotland have a land border with an EU nation and a history of terrorism like NI?
As it is Scotland has also got a trade deal with the EU too anyway, Boris did not go for No Deal did he as some hardline Leavers wanted so stop complaining! Scotland is part of the island of GB like England, Scotland and Wales, geographically it is different to NI too, hence it is the UK of GB and NI, Scotland is just a part of GB.
Given the SNP failed to get a majority in May despite Brexit most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal either
FUDHY thinks that terrorism should be rewarded. Who’d’ve thunk that of a Franco fan?
Scots not bothered about Brexit?
“How well or badly do you think the government are doing at handling Britain's exit from the European Union?”
Very well 0 Fairly well 21% Fairly badly 28% Very badly 42%
“In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”
So no different to the 60% who voted Remain in 2016 and still far fewer Scots back Scexit post Boris' EU trade deal than voted Remain in every poll.
Like NI most Scots in most polls want to stay in the UK even post Brexit
You said “most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal”. That is palpable nonsense, as illustrated by the polling referred to.
Zero respondents think that the UK government is handling the exit from the EU very well. That’s in a survey where 22% of respondents are Scottish Conservative voters. Not one of them is satisfied. How do you think the other 78% feel?
You do know where this is going to inevitably end?
'Well, even if most Scots are bothered by the Brexit deal, BJ and English Tories über alles!'
FUDHY’s obituary: “He believed ctrl-v would save the Union.”
Ctrl-z is what Britain needs.
But how many of those do you want? All the way back to Saint Tony?
I remember when @Philip_Thompson told us that Johnson wasn't fat but just really muscular.
I never said that.
I said I found it entirely believable he was 17.5 stone when @kinabalu was saying there was no way he was that heavy.
That's not what you meant and we both know it
What was actually said -
"@kinabalu said: BoJo was NOT seventeen and a half stone (!) before the virus He's only 5 ft 8 inches tall. If he had weighed that much he would have looked like Mr Creosote.
17 and a half stone isn't anywhere near as much as that!
Besides he's quite athletic as well as being on the heavy side. Remember that muscle is heavier by volume than fat so two people of the same volume can weigh quite different amounts." 15 May 2020
Omicron likely (As did Delta) ranges from barely symptomatic to a week in bed for most people - all classified as "mild". But the idea it's going to be mild for everyone is for the birds.
That's a strawman though. Very few diseases are mild for everyone. I've always felt the test should be mortality and morbidity above or below that of seasonal flu. I don't know whether Omicron hospitalisation and mortality will get to or below flu, but I don;t see why not. When people say "it's just flu" they forget that flu kills many thousands of people every winter, and lays many more low (and gives thousands post-viral chronic fatigue, just like long-Covid).
Given the amount of contradictory info contradictory knocking around, could someone on PB clarify for me that as someone who's been double vaxxed with AZ, my situation is effectively the same as an unvaccinated person when it comes to the new variant?
Too early to say. The data that is being used to say that had huge error bars and would likely have been based on older people. Plus the efficiency against infection is likely degraded but the protection against serious illness and death is likely to be still the same as before - i.e. you may get covid, but won't get that sick.
We'll know more in time about the real reduction in protection against infection of AZ x 2, and i suspect it might be low, but not zero.
Mike seems to be engaging in some late expectations management.
North Shropshire should be a certain LD gain. Governments don't win by-elections and when was the last successful Tory defence against a Lib Dems challenge in a by-election? How many consecutive by-elections have they lost versus LD challengers now.
In the circumstances, with the by-election while the Government is pissing off its own supporters and when the by-election was caused by a scandal, there's no way people should be turning out to vote Conservative.
Lib Dem gain nailed on. I'd vote Lib Dem if I was in this seat on Thursday, who here wouldn't?
He's saying the LDs have a great chance but aren't value at 1.6. If you think the LDs are 'nailed on' it's a 60% return on your money in 4 days. I presume you've lumped on. It's mandatory for a PBer (other than one of the non betting types) holding your view to do that. So, have you? If so, fine. If not, the person doing the expectations management, and in the process pretending to have a view that they don't, is a certain Eng Nat anti-masking hard leaver.
I remember when @Philip_Thompson told us that Johnson wasn't fat but just really muscular.
I never said that.
I said I found it entirely believable he was 17.5 stone when @kinabalu was saying there was no way he was that heavy.
That's not what you meant and we both know it
What was actually said -
"@kinabalu said: BoJo was NOT seventeen and a half stone (!) before the virus He's only 5 ft 8 inches tall. If he had weighed that much he would have looked like Mr Creosote.
17 and a half stone isn't anywhere near as much as that!
Besides he's quite athletic as well as being on the heavy side. Remember that muscle is heavier by volume than fat so two people of the same volume can weigh quite different amounts." 15 May 2020
is that because currently they can have their cake (EU passports, free movement, UK economic power, opportunities in UK and EU) and eat it......?
Probly. Why BJ and co don't offer a similar lash up to Scotland I don't know, would keep the ramshackle show on the road for another 20 years (or at least well past BJ's increasingly parlous tenure). Possibly something psychological to do with keeping the home island 'pure'.
Since when did Scotland have a land border with an EU nation and a history of terrorism like NI?
As it is Scotland has also got a trade deal with the EU too anyway, Boris did not go for No Deal did he as some hardline Leavers wanted so stop complaining! Scotland is part of the island of GB like England, Scotland and Wales, geographically it is different to NI too, hence it is the UK of GB and NI, Scotland is just a part of GB.
Given the SNP failed to get a majority in May despite Brexit most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal either
FUDHY thinks that terrorism should be rewarded. Who’d’ve thunk that of a Franco fan?
Scots not bothered about Brexit?
“How well or badly do you think the government are doing at handling Britain's exit from the European Union?”
Very well 0 Fairly well 21% Fairly badly 28% Very badly 42%
“In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”
So no different to the 60% who voted Remain in 2016 and still far fewer Scots back Scexit post Boris' EU trade deal than voted Remain in every poll.
Like NI most Scots in most polls want to stay in the UK even post Brexit
You said “most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal”. That is palpable nonsense, as illustrated by the polling referred to.
Zero respondents think that the UK government is handling the exit from the EU very well. That’s in a survey where 22% of respondents are Scottish Conservative voters. Not one of them is satisfied. How do you think the other 78% feel?
Clearly they aren't given the SNP failed to get a Holyrood majority in May despite Brexit.
Plus as long as we have a UK Tory majority government an indyref2 will never be allowed anyway
You’re my ctrl-v hero.
I’m looking forward to the Christmas special of your greatest hits.
On the first day of Christmas, HYUFD sent to me, Clearly they aren't given the SNP failed to get a Holyrood majority in May despite Brexit. One the second day of Christmas, HYUFD sent to me, Plus as long as we have a UK Tory majority government an indyref2 will never be allowed anyway.
On the third day of Christmas, HYUFD completely forgot to send to me, Yes of course one has to count the Scottish Greens and their voters in in any discussion of pro-indy, pro-EU blocs at Holyrood and Westminster.
Earlier this morning, Mrs Fairliered successfully ordered a pack of LFTs. An hour later, I got the message saying they were out of stock. I wonder if she got the last one?
Comments
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1470347875083341831
The Lib Dems could do worse than have a vision for Britain where the most important things people are worried about are local income tax, dog-poo-free pavements and proportional representation.
Nostalgia plays well in UK politics. A nostalgia for a simpler time (that probably never existed) when government was broadly competent, honest and professional.
I could think of many less compelling missions than that. It's the centrist dad manifesto par excellence.
Football - Global game with hundreds of millions of participants, millions who train regularly and take it seriously, tens of thousands of professionals
Tennis - Global game with tens of millions of participants, but only a few hundred tournament professionals
Boxing - Tens of thousands of professionals
Swimming - Mass participation and thousands of serious competitors through US collegiate and Chinese state systems
Diving - Small sport with dozens of serious competitors, few professionals
Paralympic Cycling - Small sport with dozens of serious competitors, few professionals
Sterling, getting to somewhere around the 100th best footballer in the world is actually a more difficult achievement than winning Olympic diving titles or indeed an F1 title.
https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/37126/stuck-in-belarus-go-to-poland-or-go-back-to-iraq
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/two-jabs-give-less-protection-against-catching-omicron-than-delta-uk-data-shows
However....then we don't know how well it protects if you can't it, the likelihood you still get a protective effect against serious illness.
So against catching it, at best not much, against serious illness, more than unvaccinated person.
PM, last night: "Everyone eligible aged 18 and over in England will have the chance to *get* their booster *before* the New Year”
NHS.DH/gov.uk today: "All adults will be *offered* a booster jab by the New Year"
https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1470356817632968708
And, he fucked it up.
Awesome.
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1470357295032946691
That's not the same as "no danger" of course, or "no threat". But "less threat", potentially. Perhaps even a net positive for several countries that were otherwise facing a Delta wave this winter.
It was laid out in someone’s autobiography.
The terminology on the dates since this has began has always been "to offer".
Why? Because if the commitment was that everyone would be vaccinated we wouldn't have had even the first round of vaccinations done, let alone second jabs, later phases or boosters.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/59505132
Plus as long as we have a UK Tory majority government an indyref2 will never be allowed anyway
2. Another key difference vs an unvaxxed person is you are one jab away from restoring good protection vs symptomatic disease as well, whereas an unvaxxed person is 3 jabs over a 6 months period away from getting to that level.
3. A third key difference, is over the last year a higher proportion of the unvaxxed would have died or got life changing complications. They need to be included for a fair comparison.
So two jabs is a much better situation than unvaxxed.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470341863634833414
https://twitter.com/smyth_chris/status/1470336732495286277
- One person infected by Omicron has died
- PM, asked three times in I/v, will not rule out further restrictions before Xmas
- On parties: "I can tell you I broke no rules"
- Has he referred himself to Simon Case for Dec 15 quiz? Yes
- https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1470358202898386948
https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1470358288252473349
It's not a pass/fail issue, where if we miss the ambitious target we have failed. Anything that pushes more people to act is worth doing.
The only minor blockage is the Labour candidate who seems to be a bit of a lone wolf, not apparently following the central party line.
This is something he also said last night. Same with Javid.
They have clearly been briefed by the eggheads. Now if they are correct, or it is about nudge, is a different matter. But clearly the eggheads are worried about the media narrative of "its just mild".
It does feel again like the mistake of original Wuhan outbreak, where the 90% mild was repeated ad infinitum. To the extent where the actual author of the original report had to do media rounds to explain "mild" = "not hospitalised" in his report.
and
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736(21)02717-3
I believe....
Earlier, Health Secretary Sajid Javid said 10 people were in hospital with the variant but he wasn't aware of any deaths.
But during a visit to a vaccine clinic in Paddington, west London, Boris Johnson confirmed one person has died.
"Sadly yes Omicron is producing hospitalisations and sadly at least one patient has been confirmed to have died with Omicron," he said.
"So I think the idea that this is somehow a milder version of the virus, I think that's something we need to set on one side and just recognise the sheer pace at which it accelerates through the population. So the best thing we can do is all get our boosters."
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-news-live-uk-over-30s-book-booster-coronavirus-omicron-boris-johnson-latest-12469075
What we can say right now is that in a largely immunised population Omicron looks to present significantly fewer hospitalisations than Delta did last year, that shows in the emerging European data and in the pretty solid SA comparisons to their Delta and Beta waves. We don't yet know how severe it will be for people with no antibodies and no t-cell immunity, it could be just as bad as the original virus (1 in 20 hospitalised) but maybe not as bad as Delta (1 in 14 hospitalised) for those people. What looks like will be really key in the UK is that like SA, we've got a wall of natural immunity in the vaccine unwilling to bring those rates down to maybe 1 in 100 or 1 in 200 hospitalised, which, while significant, will be manageable for a few weeks.
But the idea it's going to be mild for everyone is for the birds.
But as I just had to tell my vulnerable elderly parents, you need to be f##king careful, as break through for them, that could be a different ballgame. They watch too much of the news channels and convinced its morphed into just a cold overnight.
The Tories have had it lol. Farm posters have always been Tory.
I’m looking forward to the Christmas special of your greatest hits.
So far this Parliament the government is at 1 hold and 1 loss, so if the Lib Dems take North Staffordshire, and the Tories hold David Amess' seat, then they will be 2-2 and not yet ready to panic.
Now, again, we are in way better position this time and either it is milder / vaccine (and prior infection) make it less dangerous on an individual level, but still its totally irresponsible to be talking about its just a cold for everybody.
Sorry but there it is.
Hopefully Masi doesn't start working for UEFA to tip the pitch for Red Bull there.
Getting the excuses in early.
I think we all need to accept that there doesn't exist any world where everyone doesn't get COVID multiple times. The mantra has always needed to be jab early, jab often. I wouldn't be surprised if the government does one last round of gen 1 boosters for over 50s, we've got 35m ordered from Pfizer for H1 delivery. Vaccines are like a refresher course for immune systems, I'd rather have one than not.
Super forward planning from the big man pre yesterday's speech.
Even if double vaccination doesn’t prevent you getting the virus, it will significantly reduce the risk of serious disease, chronic illness or distressing death.
https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1470363419916357632
Did Michael Masi get advice on the restart from Boris Johnson, or did Boris Johnson get advice on his big flashy announcement from Michael Masi?
What I am saying is even if it far less deadly, and as I say I can believe that, some of the media narrative is that it has overnight morphed into a cold, which it definitely hasn't. If you are elderly and vulnerable for the next 2 months it is going to be absolutely everywhere in massive concentrations and you should be careful, as it will be them dying from it.
If you were immunocompromised and there was a party of 100 people, which most of them had really bad flu, even with a flu shot you would be a rather stupid going to it. I see Omicron a bit like that.
Couldn't be worse timing with an Omicron wave on the way...
SKSICWNBPM
He just opens his mouth without a scintilla of thought.
See if you can figure that one out.
One the second day of Christmas, HYUFD sent to me, Plus as long as we have a UK Tory majority government an indyref2 will never be allowed anyway.
Computer says no
"@kinabalu said:
BoJo was NOT seventeen and a half stone (!) before the virus He's only 5 ft 8 inches tall. If he had weighed that much he would have looked like Mr Creosote.
Is he spinning yet another self-serving yarn?"
"@Philip_Thompson said:
17 and a half stone isn't anywhere near as much as that!
Besides he's quite athletic as well as being on the heavy side. Remember that muscle is heavier by volume than fat so two people of the same volume can weigh quite different amounts."
15 May 2020
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2856928/#Comment_2856928
This was followed by 18 months of @kinabalu claiming Phil had said Boris was "mainly muscle"
We'll know more in time about the real reduction in protection against infection of AZ x 2, and i suspect it might be low, but not zero.