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Shropshire North should be a certain CON hold but…. – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,661
    edited December 2021

    🧷🖋

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Ashcroft poll finds 49% of NI voters want to stay in the UK, 41% want a United Ireland.
    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2021/12/northern-ireland-unification-or-the-union/

    is that because currently they can have their cake (EU passports, free movement, UK economic power, opportunities in UK and EU) and eat it......?
    Probly.
    Why BJ and co don't offer a similar lash up to Scotland I don't know, would keep the ramshackle show on the road for another 20 years (or at least well past BJ's increasingly parlous tenure). Possibly something psychological to do with keeping the home island 'pure'.
    Since when did Scotland have a land border with an EU nation and a history of terrorism like NI?

    As it is Scotland has also got a trade deal with the EU too anyway, Boris did not go for No Deal did he as some hardline Leavers wanted so stop complaining! Scotland is part of the island of GB like England, Scotland and Wales, geographically it is different to NI too, hence it is the UK of GB and NI, Scotland is just a part of GB.

    Given the SNP failed to get a majority in May despite Brexit most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal either
    FUDHY thinks that terrorism should be rewarded. Who’d’ve thunk that of a Franco fan?

    Scots not bothered about Brexit?

    “How well or badly do you think the government are doing at handling Britain's exit from the European Union?”

    Very well 0
    Fairly well 21%
    Fairly badly 28%
    Very badly 42%

    “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”

    Right to leave 29%
    Wrong to leave 60%

    (YouGov/The Times, 1-2 December, Scottish respondents)
    So no different to the 60% who voted Remain in 2016 and still far fewer Scots back Scexit post Boris' EU trade deal than voted Remain in every poll.

    Like NI most Scots in most polls want to stay in the UK even post Brexit
    You said “most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal”. That is palpable nonsense, as illustrated by the polling referred to.

    Zero respondents think that the UK government is handling the exit from the EU very well. That’s in a survey where 22% of respondents are Scottish Conservative voters. Not one of them is satisfied. How do you think the other 78% feel?
    Clearly they aren't given the SNP failed to get a Holyrood majority in May despite Brexit.

    Plus as long as we have a UK Tory majority government an indyref2 will never be allowed anyway
    You’re my ctrl-v hero.

    I’m looking forward to the Christmas special of your greatest hits.
    On the first day of Christmas, HYUFD sent to me, Clearly they aren't given the SNP failed to get a Holyrood majority in May despite Brexit.
    One the second day of Christmas, HYUFD sent to me, Plus as long as we have a UK Tory majority government an indyref2 will never be allowed anyway.
    On the third day of Christmas, HYUFD completely forgot to send to me, Yes of course one has to count the Scottish Greens and their voters in in any discussion of pro-indy, pro-EU blocs at Holyrood and Westminster.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Keir Starmer will make an address to the nation at 7pm, responding to the Prime Minister’s statement last night.
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1470347875083341831

    A must watch for insomniacs
    SKSICIPM

    Sorry but there it is.
    First 5 letters correct

    SKSICWNBPM
    SKSICIPMITSWAEMICIPM

    See if you can figure that one out. ;)
    I give up 14/18 for me
    in the same way as
  • Options
    Later today the Health Secretary @sajidjavid will make a statement updating MPs on Covid-19.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,168

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Keir Starmer will make an address to the nation at 7pm, responding to the Prime Minister’s statement last night.
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1470347875083341831

    A must watch for insomniacs
    SKSICIPM

    Sorry but there it is.
    First 5 letters correct

    SKSICWNBPM
    SKSICIPMITSWAEMICIPM

    See if you can figure that one out. ;)
    Shall I put you down as a Millifan?
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,970
    Earlier this morning, Mrs Fairliered successfully ordered a pack of LFTs. An hour later, I got the message saying they were out of stock. I wonder if she got the last one?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Keir Starmer will make an address to the nation at 7pm, responding to the Prime Minister’s statement last night.
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1470347875083341831

    A must watch for insomniacs
    SKSICIPM

    Sorry but there it is.
    First 5 letters correct

    SKSICWNBPM
    SKSICIPMITSWAEMICIPM

    See if you can figure that one out. ;)
    I give up 14/18 for me
    in the same way as
    Right thanks in which case Phil is spot on.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    Carnyx said:

    🧷🖋

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Ashcroft poll finds 49% of NI voters want to stay in the UK, 41% want a United Ireland.
    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2021/12/northern-ireland-unification-or-the-union/

    is that because currently they can have their cake (EU passports, free movement, UK economic power, opportunities in UK and EU) and eat it......?
    Probly.
    Why BJ and co don't offer a similar lash up to Scotland I don't know, would keep the ramshackle show on the road for another 20 years (or at least well past BJ's increasingly parlous tenure). Possibly something psychological to do with keeping the home island 'pure'.
    Since when did Scotland have a land border with an EU nation and a history of terrorism like NI?

    As it is Scotland has also got a trade deal with the EU too anyway, Boris did not go for No Deal did he as some hardline Leavers wanted so stop complaining! Scotland is part of the island of GB like England, Scotland and Wales, geographically it is different to NI too, hence it is the UK of GB and NI, Scotland is just a part of GB.

    Given the SNP failed to get a majority in May despite Brexit most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal either
    FUDHY thinks that terrorism should be rewarded. Who’d’ve thunk that of a Franco fan?

    Scots not bothered about Brexit?

    “How well or badly do you think the government are doing at handling Britain's exit from the European Union?”

    Very well 0
    Fairly well 21%
    Fairly badly 28%
    Very badly 42%

    “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”

    Right to leave 29%
    Wrong to leave 60%

    (YouGov/The Times, 1-2 December, Scottish respondents)
    So no different to the 60% who voted Remain in 2016 and still far fewer Scots back Scexit post Boris' EU trade deal than voted Remain in every poll.

    Like NI most Scots in most polls want to stay in the UK even post Brexit
    You said “most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal”. That is palpable nonsense, as illustrated by the polling referred to.

    Zero respondents think that the UK government is handling the exit from the EU very well. That’s in a survey where 22% of respondents are Scottish Conservative voters. Not one of them is satisfied. How do you think the other 78% feel?
    Clearly they aren't given the SNP failed to get a Holyrood majority in May despite Brexit.

    Plus as long as we have a UK Tory majority government an indyref2 will never be allowed anyway
    You’re my ctrl-v hero.

    I’m looking forward to the Christmas special of your greatest hits.
    On the first day of Christmas, HYUFD sent to me, Clearly they aren't given the SNP failed to get a Holyrood majority in May despite Brexit.
    One the second day of Christmas, HYUFD sent to me, Plus as long as we have a UK Tory majority government an indyref2 will never be allowed anyway.
    On the third day of Christmas, HYUFD completely forgot to send to me, Yes of course one has to count the Scottish Greens and their voters in in any discussion of pro-indy, pro-EU blocs at Holyrood and Westminster.
    The SNP and Greens had a majority in 2016 even before Brexit
  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    Mike seems to be engaging in some late expectations management.

    North Shropshire should be a certain LD gain. Governments don't win by-elections and when was the last successful Tory defence against a Lib Dems challenge in a by-election? How many consecutive by-elections have they lost versus LD challengers now.

    In the circumstances, with the by-election while the Government is pissing off its own supporters and when the by-election was caused by a scandal, there's no way people should be turning out to vote Conservative.

    Lib Dem gain nailed on. I'd vote Lib Dem if I was in this seat on Thursday, who here wouldn't?

    He's saying the LDs have a great chance but aren't value at 1.6. If you think the LDs are 'nailed on' it's a 60% return on your money in 4 days. I presume you've lumped on. It's mandatory for a PBer (other than one of the non betting types) holding your view to do that. So, have you? If so, fine. If not, the person doing the expectations management, and in the process pretending to have a view that they don't, is a certain Eng Nat anti-masking hard leaver.
    Spot on. The Expectations Management Train is going for the speed record today. By elections are so predictable.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    edited December 2021

    Earlier this morning, Mrs Fairliered successfully ordered a pack of LFTs. An hour later, I got the message saying they were out of stock. I wonder if she got the last one?

    LFTs are mainly to protect the unvaccinated.

    The more people get double vaccinated and get their boosters, the more LFTs will have zero real impact on hospitalisation levels
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021
    We've got a bit more from the prime minister, who says that Omicron now represents about 40% of coronavirus cases in London - and that figure will be over 50% by tomorrow

    Indian Delta is getting a kicking.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,137

    For @CorrectHorseBattery as I got it on the last thread too late -

    I remember when @Philip_Thompson told us that Johnson wasn't fat but just really muscular.

    I never said that.

    I said I found it entirely believable he was 17.5 stone when @kinabalu was saying there was no way he was that heavy.
    That's not what you meant and we both know it
    What was actually said -


    "@kinabalu said:
    BoJo was NOT seventeen and a half stone (!) before the virus He's only 5 ft 8 inches tall. If he had weighed that much he would have looked like Mr Creosote.

    Is he spinning yet another self-serving yarn?"


    "@Philip_Thompson said:

    17 and a half stone isn't anywhere near as much as that!

    Besides he's quite athletic as well as being on the heavy side. Remember that muscle is heavier by volume than fat so two people of the same volume can weigh quite different amounts."
    15 May 2020


    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2856928/#Comment_2856928

    This was followed by 18 months of @kinabalu claiming Phil had said Boris was "mainly muscle"
    @kinabalu channelling his inner Boris Johnson by expediently interpreting information.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Later today the Health Secretary @sajidjavid will make a statement updating MPs on Covid-19.

    Well of course he will

    And people will increasingly remember he was a first choice, not stopgap, CotE at one stage.

    14/1 next leader. Hmmm.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,972

    Scott_xP said:

    Asked about lateral flow tests Boris Johnson says “we do have a ready supply of tests …. there are ample supplies in the shops” #COVID19
    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1470363419916357632

    They are often available at chemists and supermarkets with a chemist.
    Thank you for clearing that up Mr Johnson.
    None locally. Just asked. Ran out Saturday; tried to replace ; none available, apparently. Assistant to whom I spoke was very uncomplimentary about Minister of the Crown who said 'go and get a test'..... when there were none.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,972
    edited December 2021

    Earlier this morning, Mrs Fairliered successfully ordered a pack of LFTs. An hour later, I got the message saying they were out of stock. I wonder if she got the last one?

    No, I did. See upthread!

    Sorry; ordered Sunday!
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    Scott_xP said:

    Asked about lateral flow tests Boris Johnson says “we do have a ready supply of tests …. there are ample supplies in the shops” #COVID19
    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1470363419916357632

    They are often available at chemists and supermarkets with a chemist.
    Thank you for clearing that up Mr Johnson.
    None locally. Just asked. Ran out Saturday; tried to replace ; none available, apparently. Assistant to whom I spoke was very uncomplimentary about Minister of the Crown who said 'go and get a test'..... when there were none.
    A Boris porkie? Surely not!
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    Isnt this the moment in the story when Boris now gets infected with Omicron....
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    edited December 2021

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Keir Starmer will make an address to the nation at 7pm, responding to the Prime Minister’s statement last night.
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1470347875083341831

    A must watch for insomniacs
    SKSICIPM

    Sorry but there it is.
    First 5 letters correct

    SKSICWNBPM
    SKSICIPMITSWAEMICIPM

    See if you can figure that one out. ;)
    In the same way as EdM?
    I'm bored.

    Edit. And beaten to it.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,577

    We've got a bit more from the prime minister, who says that Omicron now represents about 40% of coronavirus cases in London - and that figure will be over 50% by tomorrow

    Indian Delta is getting a kicking.

    Would be interesting to see the Delta-only stats. Is it fading away and being replaced, or is Omicron additive to a more stable Delta case load. The latter would be worse news.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021
    Vladimir Putin reveals he moonlighted as a taxi driver to make ends meet following the collapse of the Soviet Union

    I hate to think what happened to anybody who was sick in his cab, alone those who didn't pay.....
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,137

    Scott_xP said:

    Asked about lateral flow tests Boris Johnson says “we do have a ready supply of tests …. there are ample supplies in the shops” #COVID19
    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1470363419916357632

    They are often available at chemists and supermarkets with a chemist.
    Thank you for clearing that up Mr Johnson.
    None locally. Just asked. Ran out Saturday; tried to replace ; none available, apparently. Assistant to whom I spoke was very uncomplimentary about Minister of the Crown who said 'go and get a test'..... when there were none.
    Johnson personally claimed ALL the credit for an impressive procurement of vaccines for doses 1, 2, and 3.

    Does Johnson personally carry the can for the LFT debacle?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,972
    Seriously, I wonder what stocks were in the warehouse before Sunday.
  • Options
    TimS said:

    We've got a bit more from the prime minister, who says that Omicron now represents about 40% of coronavirus cases in London - and that figure will be over 50% by tomorrow

    Indian Delta is getting a kicking.

    Would be interesting to see the Delta-only stats. Is it fading away and being replaced, or is Omicron additive to a more stable Delta case load. The latter would be worse news.
    Tim Spector said his data was showing a surge in London, but its early days.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    edited December 2021
    TimS said:

    We've got a bit more from the prime minister, who says that Omicron now represents about 40% of coronavirus cases in London - and that figure will be over 50% by tomorrow

    Indian Delta is getting a kicking.

    Would be interesting to see the Delta-only stats. Is it fading away and being replaced, or is Omicron additive to a more stable Delta case load. The latter would be worse news.
    Can only conclude the former. Case rates would be zooming up otherwise.
    Or it may be the story so far of omicron.
    Too early to tell.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    TimS said:

    We've got a bit more from the prime minister, who says that Omicron now represents about 40% of coronavirus cases in London - and that figure will be over 50% by tomorrow

    Indian Delta is getting a kicking.

    Would be interesting to see the Delta-only stats. Is it fading away and being replaced, or is Omicron additive to a more stable Delta case load. The latter would be worse news.
    Can only conclude the former. Case rates would be zooming up otherwise.
    Tim Spector data says they are in London...so far the official data shows only a modest uptick, but we will soon see.

    London is the place to watch as it is much more seeded than the rest of the country.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    Oh no - I was frightened this might happen - we are going backwards on care home visitations now:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59619889
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    Did Michael Masi do the Champions League draw?
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,475

    Given the amount of contradictory info contradictory knocking around, could someone on PB clarify for me that as someone who's been double vaxxed with AZ, my situation is effectively the same as an unvaccinated person when it comes to the new variant?

    Reading the replies, you now have 5 different answers :smile:
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021
    Stocky said:

    Oh no - I was frightened this might happen - we are going backwards on care home visitations now:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59619889

    If you notice the change in narrative now, Scotland and Wales to announce new restrictions and Boris won't rule them out, and media asking about school closures in Jan (I presume that perhaps somebody has tipped them off that at least some planning has been going on to that effect).

    It isn't if, it is when, we have a reintroduction of restrictions and just how far reaching they will be.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,972
    edited December 2021
    Interesting thought; nephew and niece have an adult 'child' who has been in contact with a Covid case at work. They've all been told they should, for 10 days, test each morning and if negative go to work. It's in the NHS so there might be tests knocking about!
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    Have we done this?
    Just read there are now 30 million eligible for a jab.
    Getting them done before New Year is going to be some task in 18 days. With many Bank Holidays.
    Over promise again.
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    Looks like chaos in the Champions league draw with some saying it will be voided and redrawn

    Does anything work properly anymore ?
  • Options

    Scott_xP said:

    Asked about lateral flow tests Boris Johnson says “we do have a ready supply of tests …. there are ample supplies in the shops” #COVID19
    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1470363419916357632

    They are often available at chemists and supermarkets with a chemist.
    Thank you for clearing that up Mr Johnson.
    None locally. Just asked. Ran out Saturday; tried to replace ; none available, apparently. Assistant to whom I spoke was very uncomplimentary about Minister of the Crown who said 'go and get a test'..... when there were none.
    Johnson personally claimed ALL the credit for an impressive procurement of vaccines for doses 1, 2, and 3.

    Does Johnson personally carry the can for the LFT debacle?
    None at my local chemists this morning I have heard on the grapevine. Saves me ringing them later to see.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,970
    HYUFD said:

    Earlier this morning, Mrs Fairliered successfully ordered a pack of LFTs. An hour later, I got the message saying they were out of stock. I wonder if she got the last one?

    LFTs are mainly to protect the unvaccinated.

    The more people get double vaccinated and get their boosters, the more LFTs will have zero real impact on hospitalisation levels
    We test ourselves as a courtesy to others, who may or may not be vaccinated.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,182

    For @CorrectHorseBattery as I got it on the last thread too late -

    I remember when @Philip_Thompson told us that Johnson wasn't fat but just really muscular.

    I never said that.

    I said I found it entirely believable he was 17.5 stone when @kinabalu was saying there was no way he was that heavy.
    That's not what you meant and we both know it
    What was actually said -

    "@kinabalu said:
    BoJo was NOT seventeen and a half stone (!) before the virus He's only 5 ft 8 inches tall. If he had weighed that much he would have looked like Mr Creosote.

    Is he spinning yet another self-serving yarn?"

    "@Philip_Thompson said:

    17 and a half stone isn't anywhere near as much as that!

    Besides he's quite athletic as well as being on the heavy side. Remember that muscle is heavier by volume than fat so two people of the same volume can weigh quite different amounts."
    15 May 2020

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2856928/#Comment_2856928

    This was followed by 18 months of @kinabalu claiming Phil had said Boris was "mainly muscle"
    Great news you've unearthed the source material since it shows that - my horsing around aside - there is a solid basis to the scandal.

    It started with me casting doubt on Johnson's claim to have been 17.5 stone pre Covid. The suspicion (of mine) was he'd exaggerated this in order to exaggerate his weight loss due to his illness. To in turn exaggerate how serious it'd been for him.

    I still have this suspicion but this is not the point. The point is that Philip Thompson leapt in and opined that the MMM could easily have been that heavy despite being quite short and that the reason he wouldn't have looked like Danny DeVito is that he is of 'athletic build' with a 'high muscle to fat ratio'.

    So there we are. I dropped it ages ago but I make no apology for running with it for a while. It merited that. It was peak PT BJ adoration. A real moment in time.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Have we done this?
    Just read there are now 30 million eligible for a jab.
    Getting them done before New Year is going to be some task in 18 days. With many Bank Holidays.
    Over promise again.

    And Christmas day they will be at best running a minimal service. So 17 days.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    dixiedean said:

    Have we done this?
    Just read there are now 30 million eligible for a jab.
    Getting them done before New Year is going to be some task in 18 days. With many Bank Holidays.
    Over promise again.

    We already have the highest booster vaccination rate of any big nation in Europe, so it can be done
  • Options

    Isnt this the moment in the story when Boris now gets infected with Omicron....

    Yep. And then half of Whitehall.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952

    dixiedean said:

    TimS said:

    We've got a bit more from the prime minister, who says that Omicron now represents about 40% of coronavirus cases in London - and that figure will be over 50% by tomorrow

    Indian Delta is getting a kicking.

    Would be interesting to see the Delta-only stats. Is it fading away and being replaced, or is Omicron additive to a more stable Delta case load. The latter would be worse news.
    Can only conclude the former. Case rates would be zooming up otherwise.
    Tim Spector data says they are in London...so far the official data shows only a modest uptick, but we will soon see.

    London is the place to watch as it is much more seeded than the rest of the country.
    London is also the place where it will be bang on impossible to avoid other than never leaving your front door, too.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,475
    edited December 2021

    Dr Foxy fell for this conspiracy....

    Yet more astute observations from Westminster’s favourite barrister: Jolyon Maugham got so excited by the Mirror‘s Zoom quiz picture last night that he managed to confuse Downing Street curtains with a bin bag, implying the PM had tried covering up a CCTV camera. Would anything say “there’s nothing to see here” quite like sticking a bin bag over a camera, only to then hop straight onto a video call?

    https://order-order.com/2021/12/13/jolyon-backtracks-on-boris-bin-bag-conspiracy/

    It reminds me of Peston and the the "doctored" picture of Boris on the phone to Biden.

    Great Jumping Jolyon embracing fictions in his enthusiasm to have a go.

    Whodathunkit? Did he get the paperwork in on time?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,610
    edited December 2021
    Lateral Flow Tests

    The NHS App currently shows none available for delivery, however its worth checking on the app to see if your local chemist has some available for collection. Enter your post code - my regular and nearest one came up as having stock, fill in your details and get a collection code which you must show when picking them up. When I did I was asked if I wanted one or two packs.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983

    HYUFD said:

    Earlier this morning, Mrs Fairliered successfully ordered a pack of LFTs. An hour later, I got the message saying they were out of stock. I wonder if she got the last one?

    LFTs are mainly to protect the unvaccinated.

    The more people get double vaccinated and get their boosters, the more LFTs will have zero real impact on hospitalisation levels
    We test ourselves as a courtesy to others, who may or may not be vaccinated.
    No, we now test ourselves to protect the unvaccinated mainly and certainly that will be the case once most of us have had our boosters.

    If you have been double jabbed and had your booster you have near zero chance of hospitalisation from Omicron.

    That will not be the case for the unvaccinated
  • Options
    Good news incoming:


    Tom Calver
    @tomhcalver
    ·
    29m
    South Africa's case fatality rate falls again to 0.5%. The theory that Omicron causes milder symptoms is becoming very hard to ignore...
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,137
    IshmaelZ said:

    Later today the Health Secretary @sajidjavid will make a statement updating MPs on Covid-19.

    Well of course he will

    And people will increasingly remember he was a first choice, not stopgap, CotE at one stage.

    14/1 next leader. Hmmm.
    De-bagged by Cummings as I recall. That in itself is an entry in his credit column.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,328
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Have we done this?
    Just read there are now 30 million eligible for a jab.
    Getting them done before New Year is going to be some task in 18 days. With many Bank Holidays.
    Over promise again.

    On the 9th (Latest day for data from Scotland), calculation of

    (Cumulative Second doses 90 days before) - (Third doses already given)

    image

    Scotland and England data only, NI and Wales are 7.5% of the UK population....

    Because this is from the 9th we are already well over a million doses further on....
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952

    Interesting thought; nephew and niece have an adult 'child' who has been in contact with a Covid case at work. They've all been told they should, for 10 days, test each morning and if negative go to work. It's in the NHS so there might be tests knocking about!

    Would have thought the NHS would have ample stocks as a priority.
    Bloody hope so.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,661
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    TimS said:

    We've got a bit more from the prime minister, who says that Omicron now represents about 40% of coronavirus cases in London - and that figure will be over 50% by tomorrow

    Indian Delta is getting a kicking.

    Would be interesting to see the Delta-only stats. Is it fading away and being replaced, or is Omicron additive to a more stable Delta case load. The latter would be worse news.
    Can only conclude the former. Case rates would be zooming up otherwise.
    Tim Spector data says they are in London...so far the official data shows only a modest uptick, but we will soon see.

    London is the place to watch as it is much more seeded than the rest of the country.
    London is also the place where it will be bang on impossible to avoid other than never leaving your front door, too.
    Some lower vaccination rates, too.
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    Have we done this?
    Just read there are now 30 million eligible for a jab.
    Getting them done before New Year is going to be some task in 18 days. With many Bank Holidays.
    Over promise again.

    Just watching the BBC the queue at one London hospital drop in is enormous with over 2 hour wait but everyone promised they will receive their dose

    It has also been reported that the 15 minute wait post the dose is to be tweaked to help the throughput of people
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2021

    dixiedean said:

    TimS said:

    We've got a bit more from the prime minister, who says that Omicron now represents about 40% of coronavirus cases in London - and that figure will be over 50% by tomorrow

    Indian Delta is getting a kicking.

    Would be interesting to see the Delta-only stats. Is it fading away and being replaced, or is Omicron additive to a more stable Delta case load. The latter would be worse news.
    Can only conclude the former. Case rates would be zooming up otherwise.
    Tim Spector data says they are in London...so far the official data shows only a modest uptick, but we will soon see.

    London is the place to watch as it is much more seeded than the rest of the country.
    London has been the dog that didn't bark over Autumn. It was the region with the lowest cases per 100k figure despite packed tubes and open venues. But now it seems to be proper surging, starting to form a curve that looks a touch on the exponential side of things.

    I had assumed that London was okay over Autumn due to getting smashed the previous winter so lots of acquired immunity. So is this acquired immunity wearing off or OMICRON DESTROYER OF WORLDS circumventing it or both?
  • Options

    Freedom loving Tory MPs who value liberty above all else are disgusted about people having to take covid tests before going to big events, but have no problem in supporting the state's right to take away someone's UK citizenship without telling them and banning peaceful protest. It's almost as if they are hypocritical shysters who care about their freedom to do as they want but do not give a monkey's bollock for anyone else's.

    I really do despair at the conservative mps voting against these measures
  • Options
    10 Downing St says there is no shortage of lateral flow tests, but the maximum daily number of postal delivery slots (somewhere in the 100,000s) has been exceeded today. There should still be LF tests available at pharmacies, and more will be available to order online tomorrow.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1470372451515346944?s=20
  • Options
    Alistair said:

    dixiedean said:

    TimS said:

    We've got a bit more from the prime minister, who says that Omicron now represents about 40% of coronavirus cases in London - and that figure will be over 50% by tomorrow

    Indian Delta is getting a kicking.

    Would be interesting to see the Delta-only stats. Is it fading away and being replaced, or is Omicron additive to a more stable Delta case load. The latter would be worse news.
    Can only conclude the former. Case rates would be zooming up otherwise.
    Tim Spector data says they are in London...so far the official data shows only a modest uptick, but we will soon see.

    London is the place to watch as it is much more seeded than the rest of the country.
    London has been the dog that didn't bark over Autumn. It was the region with the lowest cases per 100k figure despite packed tubes and open venues. But now it seems to be proper surging, starting to form a curve that looks a touch on the exponential side of things.

    I had assumed that London was okay over Autumn due to getting smashed the previous winter so lots of acquired immunity. So is this acquired immunity wearing off or OMICRON DESTROYER OF WORLDS circumventing it or both?
    Anecdotally from SE London, Covid is everywhere.
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    kinabalu said:

    For @CorrectHorseBattery as I got it on the last thread too late -

    I remember when @Philip_Thompson told us that Johnson wasn't fat but just really muscular.

    I never said that.

    I said I found it entirely believable he was 17.5 stone when @kinabalu was saying there was no way he was that heavy.
    That's not what you meant and we both know it
    What was actually said -

    "@kinabalu said:
    BoJo was NOT seventeen and a half stone (!) before the virus He's only 5 ft 8 inches tall. If he had weighed that much he would have looked like Mr Creosote.

    Is he spinning yet another self-serving yarn?"

    "@Philip_Thompson said:

    17 and a half stone isn't anywhere near as much as that!

    Besides he's quite athletic as well as being on the heavy side. Remember that muscle is heavier by volume than fat so two people of the same volume can weigh quite different amounts."
    15 May 2020

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2856928/#Comment_2856928

    This was followed by 18 months of @kinabalu claiming Phil had said Boris was "mainly muscle"
    Great news you've unearthed the source material since it shows that - my horsing around aside - there is a solid basis to the scandal.

    It started with me casting doubt on Johnson's claim to have been 17.5 stone pre Covid. The suspicion (of mine) was he'd exaggerated this in order to exaggerate his weight loss due to his illness. To in turn exaggerate how serious it'd been for him.

    I still have this suspicion but this is not the point. The point is that Philip Thompson leapt in and opined that the MMM could easily have been that heavy despite being quite short and that the reason he wouldn't have looked like Danny DeVito is that he is of 'athletic build' with a 'high muscle to fat ratio'.

    So there we are. I dropped it ages ago but I make no apology for running with it for a while. It merited that. It was peak PT BJ adoration. A real moment in time.
    Sorry but you're talking absolute bollocks. I never said he has a 'high muscle to fat ratio', that's literally not in the quote. You're inventing your own words.

    I said he is 'athletic' as well as 'on the heavy side' and he is.

    17.5 stone is nothing that special for someone 5'8" its entirely believable and not remotely Mr Creosote.
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    Scott_xP said:

    Asked about lateral flow tests Boris Johnson says “we do have a ready supply of tests …. there are ample supplies in the shops” #COVID19
    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1470363419916357632

    They are often available at chemists and supermarkets with a chemist.
    You'll need the code before they'll hand the tests over.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021

    dixiedean said:

    Have we done this?
    Just read there are now 30 million eligible for a jab.
    Getting them done before New Year is going to be some task in 18 days. With many Bank Holidays.
    Over promise again.

    Just watching the BBC the queue at one London hospital drop in is enormous with over 2 hour wait but everyone promised they will receive their dose

    It has also been reported that the 15 minute wait post the dose is to be tweaked to help the throughput of people
    We really should minimising the time people are sitting in a vaccination centre. If Omicron is as transmissible as is believed, 15 mins sitting around with 100 other people is rather counter-productive.
  • Options
    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,347

    Good news incoming:


    Tom Calver
    @tomhcalver
    ·
    29m
    South Africa's case fatality rate falls again to 0.5%. The theory that Omicron causes milder symptoms is becoming very hard to ignore...

    Is that 0.5% of positive test results as I imagine their actual real number of positive cases is anything between 5 & 10 times the official figure.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,475

    Good news incoming:


    Tom Calver
    @tomhcalver
    ·
    29m
    South Africa's case fatality rate falls again to 0.5%. The theory that Omicron causes milder symptoms is becoming very hard to ignore...

    South African knowledgeable chap on the Beeb pointing out that SA does 1/13 as much testing as UK.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,328

    dixiedean said:

    TimS said:

    We've got a bit more from the prime minister, who says that Omicron now represents about 40% of coronavirus cases in London - and that figure will be over 50% by tomorrow

    Indian Delta is getting a kicking.

    Would be interesting to see the Delta-only stats. Is it fading away and being replaced, or is Omicron additive to a more stable Delta case load. The latter would be worse news.
    Can only conclude the former. Case rates would be zooming up otherwise.
    Tim Spector data says they are in London...so far the official data shows only a modest uptick, but we will soon see.

    London is the place to watch as it is much more seeded than the rest of the country.
    Ask and ye shall receive....

    image
    image
    image
  • Options
    Can’t imagine this would be the length of queue if it was announced today in parliament as opposed to prime time last night...

    Shaun Lintern @ShaunLintern
    Current wait at the Guys Hospital London Bridge walk-in centre is over 4hrs.


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1470369292390699015?s=20
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    Pulpstar said:

    theakes said:

    If you go to the constituency, seem posters in farmers fields and most importantly listen to people in the shops you wouldn't bet against the Lib Dems winning. Can be wrong of course but ..........
    The only minor blockage is the Labour candidate who seems to be a bit of a lone wolf, not apparently following the central party line.

    Lib Dem posters in farmers fields ???

    The Tories have had it lol. Farm posters have always been Tory.
    And then the Tory brexit deal screwed them...
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    10 Downing St says there is no shortage of lateral flow tests, but the maximum daily number of postal delivery slots (somewhere in the 100,000s) has been exceeded today. There should still be LF tests available at pharmacies, and more will be available to order online tomorrow.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1470372451515346944?s=20

    That makes sense, judging by some of the batch information on the packets there seems to be a huge supply, but obviously you still need to be able to deliver them.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021

    10 Downing St says there is no shortage of lateral flow tests, but the maximum daily number of postal delivery slots (somewhere in the 100,000s) has been exceeded today. There should still be LF tests available at pharmacies, and more will be available to order online tomorrow.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1470372451515346944?s=20

    Its bog roll and petrol shortage again....people cause a panic, plenty of bog rolls, but if everybody tries to buy them all at the same time, you can't restock the shelves fast enough.

    Have the media ever apologised over causing the petrol panic via fake news?
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,930

    Lateral Flow Tests

    The NHS App currently shows none available for delivery, however its worth checking on the app to see if your local chemist has some available for collection. Enter your post code - my regular and nearest one came up as having stock, fill in your details and get a collection code which you must show when picking them up. When I did I was asked if I wanted one or two packs.

    I went online and got a collection code about 11.30a.m. Just picked up 2 packs from the pharmacy - assistant said there had been a rush.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952

    kinabalu said:

    For @CorrectHorseBattery as I got it on the last thread too late -

    I remember when @Philip_Thompson told us that Johnson wasn't fat but just really muscular.

    I never said that.

    I said I found it entirely believable he was 17.5 stone when @kinabalu was saying there was no way he was that heavy.
    That's not what you meant and we both know it
    What was actually said -

    "@kinabalu said:
    BoJo was NOT seventeen and a half stone (!) before the virus He's only 5 ft 8 inches tall. If he had weighed that much he would have looked like Mr Creosote.

    Is he spinning yet another self-serving yarn?"

    "@Philip_Thompson said:

    17 and a half stone isn't anywhere near as much as that!

    Besides he's quite athletic as well as being on the heavy side. Remember that muscle is heavier by volume than fat so two people of the same volume can weigh quite different amounts."
    15 May 2020

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2856928/#Comment_2856928

    This was followed by 18 months of @kinabalu claiming Phil had said Boris was "mainly muscle"
    Great news you've unearthed the source material since it shows that - my horsing around aside - there is a solid basis to the scandal.

    It started with me casting doubt on Johnson's claim to have been 17.5 stone pre Covid. The suspicion (of mine) was he'd exaggerated this in order to exaggerate his weight loss due to his illness. To in turn exaggerate how serious it'd been for him.

    I still have this suspicion but this is not the point. The point is that Philip Thompson leapt in and opined that the MMM could easily have been that heavy despite being quite short and that the reason he wouldn't have looked like Danny DeVito is that he is of 'athletic build' with a 'high muscle to fat ratio'.

    So there we are. I dropped it ages ago but I make no apology for running with it for a while. It merited that. It was peak PT BJ adoration. A real moment in time.
    Sorry but you're talking absolute bollocks. I never said he has a 'high muscle to fat ratio', that's literally not in the quote. You're inventing your own words.

    I said he is 'athletic' as well as 'on the heavy side' and he is.

    17.5 stone is nothing that special for someone 5'8" its entirely believable and not remotely Mr Creosote.
    We've entered a time machine here and gone back a year. This and COVID every bloody where.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,137
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Have we done this?
    Just read there are now 30 million eligible for a jab.
    Getting them done before New Year is going to be some task in 18 days. With many Bank Holidays.
    Over promise again.

    We already have the highest booster vaccination rate of any big nation in Europe, so it can be done
    Have you not got the latest memo? It is a "promise" of a booster shot, not the booster shot itself that will be delivered by New Year's Day.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952

    dixiedean said:

    Have we done this?
    Just read there are now 30 million eligible for a jab.
    Getting them done before New Year is going to be some task in 18 days. With many Bank Holidays.
    Over promise again.

    Just watching the BBC the queue at one London hospital drop in is enormous with over 2 hour wait but everyone promised they will receive their dose

    It has also been reported that the 15 minute wait post the dose is to be tweaked to help the throughput of people
    We really should minimising the time people are sitting in a vaccination centre. If Omicron is as transmissible as is believed, 15 mins sitting around with 100 other people is rather counter-productive.
    That did occur to me. A 4 hour wait in a queue next to the same people, even if outside for most of it doesn't seem, well, ideal either.
  • Options

    Just seen the Champions League draw.

    Hopefully Masi doesn't start working for UEFA to tip the pitch for Red Bull there.

    Masi voids the draw so that Red Bull don't have to face Liverpool.
  • Options

    Freedom loving Tory MPs who value liberty above all else are disgusted about people having to take covid tests before going to big events, but have no problem in supporting the state's right to take away someone's UK citizenship without telling them and banning peaceful protest. It's almost as if they are hypocritical shysters who care about their freedom to do as they want but do not give a monkey's bollock for anyone else's.

    You've met them then?
  • Options

    Can’t imagine this would be the length of queue if it was announced today in parliament as opposed to prime time last night...

    Shaun Lintern @ShaunLintern
    Current wait at the Guys Hospital London Bridge walk-in centre is over 4hrs.


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1470369292390699015?s=20

    Perhaps they should have started the Save Xmas, Get Boosted campaign back in October when the supermarkets start putting out the gifts and the decorations.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Have we done this?
    Just read there are now 30 million eligible for a jab.
    Getting them done before New Year is going to be some task in 18 days. With many Bank Holidays.
    Over promise again.

    We already have the highest booster vaccination rate of any big nation in Europe, so it can be done
    Have you not got the latest memo? It is a "promise" of a booster shot, not the booster shot itself that will be delivered by New Year's Day.
    Many of us will have had the booster jab by New Year's Day, the rest shortly after. We will still have by far the highest percentage of our population having had their boosters of any major western nation by January
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    I reckon the contractors mixed up the Manchester clubs!

    Champions League draw to be redone
    The Champions League draw has been declared void and will be "entirely redone" at 14:00 GMT.

    Uefa's statement: "Following a technical problem with the software of an external service provider that instructs the officials as to which teams are eligible to play each other, a material error occurred in the draw for the UEFA Champions League Round of 16.

    "As a result of this, the draw has been declared void and will be entirely redone at 1500 CET."
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021

    Can’t imagine this would be the length of queue if it was announced today in parliament as opposed to prime time last night...

    Shaun Lintern @ShaunLintern
    Current wait at the Guys Hospital London Bridge walk-in centre is over 4hrs.


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1470369292390699015?s=20

    Perhaps they should have started the Save Xmas, Get Boosted campaign back in October when the supermarkets start putting out the gifts and the decorations.
    How....JCVI wouldn't allow it. They were all "vax everybody else in the world first, boosters are a luxury that we don't need".
  • Options
    tlg86 said:

    I reckon the contractors mixed up the Manchester clubs!

    Champions League draw to be redone
    The Champions League draw has been declared void and will be "entirely redone" at 14:00 GMT.

    Uefa's statement: "Following a technical problem with the software of an external service provider that instructs the officials as to which teams are eligible to play each other, a material error occurred in the draw for the UEFA Champions League Round of 16.

    "As a result of this, the draw has been declared void and will be entirely redone at 1500 CET."

    Did they get Manchester City confused with their 'noisy neighbours'?
  • Options
    RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788

    Can’t imagine this would be the length of queue if it was announced today in parliament as opposed to prime time last night...

    Shaun Lintern @ShaunLintern
    Current wait at the Guys Hospital London Bridge walk-in centre is over 4hrs.


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1470369292390699015?s=20

    Good evidence that the speech cut through. At least 13m watched it last night so people can scream until they're blue in the face about the PM ducking responsibility by doing a pre-recorded statement but it was still the right way to go about this.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,328

    dixiedean said:

    Have we done this?
    Just read there are now 30 million eligible for a jab.
    Getting them done before New Year is going to be some task in 18 days. With many Bank Holidays.
    Over promise again.

    Just watching the BBC the queue at one London hospital drop in is enormous with over 2 hour wait but everyone promised they will receive their dose

    It has also been reported that the 15 minute wait post the dose is to be tweaked to help the throughput of people
    It isn't 30 million.

    It's less than 20 million, as of today.

    This is because, in order to have your booster, you have to have had a second vaccination. Even in you have your first shot now, you won't get your second till the New Year
  • Options

    Can’t imagine this would be the length of queue if it was announced today in parliament as opposed to prime time last night...

    Shaun Lintern @ShaunLintern
    Current wait at the Guys Hospital London Bridge walk-in centre is over 4hrs.


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1470369292390699015?s=20

    Perhaps they should have started the Save Xmas, Get Boosted campaign back in October when the supermarkets start putting out the gifts and the decorations.
    39.3% of the over-12 population has already received a third jab.

    We're not starting from zero - we did start in October.
  • Options
    Recently back from my PCR test which was significantly busier than last week's PCR test at the same site on the same day / time. Still personally feeling fine and enjoying personal lockdown with hope of a brief release before it goes national.

    Someone mentioned above that Covid appears to be everywhere. My train travel on Saturday (Inverurie - York and back having had to can the London trip whilst en-route) was impacted by Covid. Lack of staff on trains causing issues. On work issues DHL are having a mare at the moment with Covid hitting multiple depots staff. And we have various football teams starting to fall.

    Given that (a) we were all vaccinated against it and (b) haven't caught it despite 40k cases per day for months, my guess is that the strain that has hit my household is Omega. Mrs RP is vaxxed but its still absolutely clobbered her. Roasting hot alternating with freezing cold. Hacking cough alternating with "its like breathing glue". Raging headaches that no pills hit the sides of. Vivid nightmares alternated with no energy but can't sleep.

    OK so she isn't in hospital (and lets hope it stays that way). But as with my 10 year-old daughter last week I have never seen her this ill.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021
    I remember when the WHO, the JCVI members and the media were guilt tripping people over getting a booster...

    e.g The director-general of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has made his position clear, calling for countries to impose a moratorium on boosters until 10% of people in every country are vaccinated - September 17 2021
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,475
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Have we done this?
    Just read there are now 30 million eligible for a jab.
    Getting them done before New Year is going to be some task in 18 days. With many Bank Holidays.
    Over promise again.

    We already have the highest booster vaccination rate of any big nation in Europe, so it can be done
    Interesting numbers - it is just like the first round of vaccinations.

    UK got up and running much more quickly as Matt Hancock had got the infra in early. EU countries ran into bottlenecks (eg Germany with their coordination between Drs and holders of health records), then caught up on the rate.

    This time the same happened, but a couple of big countries are just at or below 1% of pop per day now, and have overtaken us on rate if not total.


  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    Earlier this morning, Mrs Fairliered successfully ordered a pack of LFTs. An hour later, I got the message saying they were out of stock. I wonder if she got the last one?

    LFTs are mainly to protect the unvaccinated.

    The more people get double vaccinated and get their boosters, the more LFTs will have zero real impact on hospitalisation levels
    We test ourselves as a courtesy to others, who may or may not be vaccinated.
    Which Wizard of Oz character is FUDHY?

    Is he missing a heart, brain or courage?
  • Options
    The thing that's most amusing about the Champions League draw is how upset Atletico are that they weren't drawn against Manchester United.

    Once upon a time clubs would have been worried about drawing against Man Utd not finding them the easy club in the pot they'd rather get! 😂
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    Earlier this morning, Mrs Fairliered successfully ordered a pack of LFTs. An hour later, I got the message saying they were out of stock. I wonder if she got the last one?

    LFTs are mainly to protect the unvaccinated.

    The more people get double vaccinated and get their boosters, the more LFTs will have zero real impact on hospitalisation levels
    We test ourselves as a courtesy to others, who may or may not be vaccinated.
    Which Wizard of Oz character is FUDHY?

    Is he missing a heart, brain or courage?
    He's the Wizard.

    The moral from the Wizard of Oz is that they always had the heart, brain or courage - but pull back the sheet and there was nothing there for the Wizard.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,940

    Good news incoming:


    Tom Calver
    @tomhcalver
    ·
    29m
    South Africa's case fatality rate falls again to 0.5%. The theory that Omicron causes milder symptoms is becoming very hard to ignore...

    It appears to be at its lowest level since the start of the pandemic.

    However, my sense is we won't get enough evidence by Christmas from SA to prevent widespread panic. So, the panic is now locked in regardless of what evidence emerges from SA in the coming days.
  • Options
    @Philip_Thompson said BoJo was quite athletic. Are you having a laugh
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952

    dixiedean said:

    Have we done this?
    Just read there are now 30 million eligible for a jab.
    Getting them done before New Year is going to be some task in 18 days. With many Bank Holidays.
    Over promise again.

    Just watching the BBC the queue at one London hospital drop in is enormous with over 2 hour wait but everyone promised they will receive their dose

    It has also been reported that the 15 minute wait post the dose is to be tweaked to help the throughput of people
    It isn't 30 million.

    It's less than 20 million, as of today.

    This is because, in order to have your booster, you have to have had a second vaccination. Even in you have your first shot now, you won't get your second till the New Year
    Thanks for that. Three things. Firstly, that's still a lot with New Year as a target.
    Secondly. You can't have a booster within four weeks of a positive test. So that's a fair few more out. Me for one.
    Finally. Many thanks for all your stat collection and on the ball figures. It really is invaluable for the interested non-expert.
  • Options

    @Philip_Thompson said BoJo was quite athletic. Are you having a laugh

    No. He's a cyclist, not a couch potato.

    I find the idea that he's 17.5 stone entirely plausible.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,190

    Scott_xP said:

    Keir Starmer will make an address to the nation at 7pm, responding to the Prime Minister’s statement last night.
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1470347875083341831

    What's he going to say...get a jab? That he will vote for vaccine passports, but he doesn't want them, but only two months ago vaccine passports didn't go far enough and we needed vaccine passport+++, where everybody took a LFT before every pub visit?
    If I were writing Starmer's statement, I'd make it statesmanlike and focused on dealing with the pandemic, almost as though he were PM. I'd slip in a few barbs making it clear that the fact that we are saddled with a mendacious clown in No 10, who doesn't follow his own rules, isn't a reason to ignore the advice or flout the regulations. Pretty much the message that Labour, and in particular Wes Streeting, has been putting out, with the framing that Boris is an irrelevance.
    Very sensible advice. But why does Starmer get a broadcast at all? Are we going to get one from Ed Davey as well? What is the point?
  • Options
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Have we done this?
    Just read there are now 30 million eligible for a jab.
    Getting them done before New Year is going to be some task in 18 days. With many Bank Holidays.
    Over promise again.

    We already have the highest booster vaccination rate of any big nation in Europe, so it can be done
    Interesting numbers - it is just like the first round of vaccinations.

    UK got up and running much more quickly as Matt Hancock had got the infra in early. EU countries ran into bottlenecks (eg Germany with their coordination between Drs and holders of health records), then caught up on the rate.

    This time the same happened, but a couple of big countries are just at or below 1% of pop per day now, and have overtaken us on rate if not total.


    And of course it's not just how many are getting jabbed, but who


  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,328

    Freedom loving Tory MPs who value liberty above all else are disgusted about people having to take covid tests before going to big events, but have no problem in supporting the state's right to take away someone's UK citizenship without telling them and banning peaceful protest. It's almost as if they are hypocritical shysters who care about their freedom to do as they want but do not give a monkey's bollock for anyone else's.

    You've met them then?
    I had a strange one just yesterday - someone declared that my wanting Begum put on trial for war crimes was "nasty and disgusting".

    The context was that I didn't think her citizenship should have been removed. But that she should be tried for the crimes she committed.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,168
    Alistair said:

    dixiedean said:

    TimS said:

    We've got a bit more from the prime minister, who says that Omicron now represents about 40% of coronavirus cases in London - and that figure will be over 50% by tomorrow

    Indian Delta is getting a kicking.

    Would be interesting to see the Delta-only stats. Is it fading away and being replaced, or is Omicron additive to a more stable Delta case load. The latter would be worse news.
    Can only conclude the former. Case rates would be zooming up otherwise.
    Tim Spector data says they are in London...so far the official data shows only a modest uptick, but we will soon see.

    London is the place to watch as it is much more seeded than the rest of the country.
    London has been the dog that didn't bark over Autumn. It was the region with the lowest cases per 100k figure despite packed tubes and open venues. But now it seems to be proper surging, starting to form a curve that looks a touch on the exponential side of things.

    I had assumed that London was okay over Autumn due to getting smashed the previous winter so lots of acquired immunity. So is this acquired immunity wearing off or OMICRON DESTROYER OF WORLDS circumventing it or both?
    It's Omicron. A week or two ago someone on twitter highlighted the inner London boroughs with strong links to Africa and said they would be places to watch, as they would be where seeding would be concentrated.

    And it has come to pass that places like Southwark have been climbing Malmesbury's charts, first the R rate chart, and then others. Omicron has arrived and escapes previous immunity sufficiently to cause infection.

    It won't be long until we will know for sure from London's hospitals whether we have a major problem.
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    @Philip_Thompson said BoJo was quite athletic. Are you having a laugh

    No. He's a cyclist, not a couch potato.

    I find the idea that he's 17.5 stone entirely plausible.
    He’s not a cyclist. This is utterly hilarious
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    HYUFD said:

    Since the 2016 EU referendum the LDs have won every Tory seat they challenged for in a by election eg Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham except Witney.

    However even Witney saw a 19% swing to the LDs so they were all going to be contendors. Therefore most likely it will either be a LD gain or narrow Tory hold

    If Witney were held under today's circumstances, and if Labour only made a token effort, I reckon - as a local - that the LibDems would have a strong chance of taking it.

    North Shropshire is less naturally LibDem-friendly territory, but the LibDems appear to have established themselves as the challengers much more so than ever happened in Witney. (Labour round here are absolutely obsessed with fighting for second place, even putting out an attack leaflet solely focused on the LibDems at GE2019.)

    I still think it's a long shot, but wouldn't rule out a win. Though as OGH says, it's not remotely value.
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    Should speed things up:

    BBC understands people given a Pfizer or Moderna vaccine will no longer have to be monitored for 15 minutes after their booster jab. Advice on the removal of the 15 minute observation period in England is currently being finalised, and is expected to be agreed by ministers.

    https://twitter.com/jim_reed/status/1470372828797194241?s=20
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952

    Recently back from my PCR test which was significantly busier than last week's PCR test at the same site on the same day / time. Still personally feeling fine and enjoying personal lockdown with hope of a brief release before it goes national.

    Someone mentioned above that Covid appears to be everywhere. My train travel on Saturday (Inverurie - York and back having had to can the London trip whilst en-route) was impacted by Covid. Lack of staff on trains causing issues. On work issues DHL are having a mare at the moment with Covid hitting multiple depots staff. And we have various football teams starting to fall.

    Given that (a) we were all vaccinated against it and (b) haven't caught it despite 40k cases per day for months, my guess is that the strain that has hit my household is Omega. Mrs RP is vaxxed but its still absolutely clobbered her. Roasting hot alternating with freezing cold. Hacking cough alternating with "its like breathing glue". Raging headaches that no pills hit the sides of. Vivid nightmares alternated with no energy but can't sleep.

    OK so she isn't in hospital (and lets hope it stays that way). But as with my 10 year-old daughter last week I have never seen her this ill.

    Sounds like omicron. Had all the same. Except the cough.
    All the best luck with it.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,328
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Have we done this?
    Just read there are now 30 million eligible for a jab.
    Getting them done before New Year is going to be some task in 18 days. With many Bank Holidays.
    Over promise again.

    Just watching the BBC the queue at one London hospital drop in is enormous with over 2 hour wait but everyone promised they will receive their dose

    It has also been reported that the 15 minute wait post the dose is to be tweaked to help the throughput of people
    It isn't 30 million.

    It's less than 20 million, as of today.

    This is because, in order to have your booster, you have to have had a second vaccination. Even in you have your first shot now, you won't get your second till the New Year
    Thanks for that. Three things. Firstly, that's still a lot with New Year as a target.
    Secondly. You can't have a booster within four weeks of a positive test. So that's a fair few more out. Me for one.
    Finally. Many thanks for all your stat collection and on the ball figures. It really is invaluable for the interested non-expert.
    Indeed.

    The above number are the reason why people are talking about 1 million plus per day...
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261

    Recently back from my PCR test which was significantly busier than last week's PCR test at the same site on the same day / time. Still personally feeling fine and enjoying personal lockdown with hope of a brief release before it goes national.

    Someone mentioned above that Covid appears to be everywhere. My train travel on Saturday (Inverurie - York and back having had to can the London trip whilst en-route) was impacted by Covid. Lack of staff on trains causing issues. On work issues DHL are having a mare at the moment with Covid hitting multiple depots staff. And we have various football teams starting to fall.

    Given that (a) we were all vaccinated against it and (b) haven't caught it despite 40k cases per day for months, my guess is that the strain that has hit my household is Omega. Mrs RP is vaxxed but its still absolutely clobbered her. Roasting hot alternating with freezing cold. Hacking cough alternating with "its like breathing glue". Raging headaches that no pills hit the sides of. Vivid nightmares alternated with no energy but can't sleep.

    OK so she isn't in hospital (and lets hope it stays that way). But as with my 10 year-old daughter last week I have never seen her this ill.

    All the best and wishing your wife a speedy recovery!
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    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,211
    edited December 2021

    @Philip_Thompson said BoJo was quite athletic. Are you having a laugh

    No. He's a cyclist, not a couch potato.

    I find the idea that he's 17.5 stone entirely plausible.
    He’s not a cyclist. This is utterly hilarious
    Joe Biden thinks he is.

    https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/president-joe-biden-gifts-boris-johnson-us-built-bike

    Cycling Weekly says "UK Prime Minister Johnson is famed for being a keen cyclist and has routinely been spotted riding his bike around London. "

    @CorrectHorseBattery says not.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    edited December 2021

    Should speed things up:

    BBC understands people given a Pfizer or Moderna vaccine will no longer have to be monitored for 15 minutes after their booster jab. Advice on the removal of the 15 minute observation period in England is currently being finalised, and is expected to be agreed by ministers.

    https://twitter.com/jim_reed/status/1470372828797194241?s=20

    That will increase throughput a lot.

    Edit, could probably do 1m per day easily now.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,328

    @Philip_Thompson said BoJo was quite athletic. Are you having a laugh

    No. He's a cyclist, not a couch potato.

    I find the idea that he's 17.5 stone entirely plausible.
    He’s not a cyclist. This is utterly hilarious
    I've seen fatter blokes on fixies. In lycra....

    They don't make enough mind bleach.....
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