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Shropshire North should be a certain CON hold but…. – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageShropshire North should be a certain CON hold but…. – politicalbetting.com

On the face of it there should be no doubt about the outcome of Thursday’s by-election in Shropshire North. At GE2019 the Tories retained the seat with a majority of 40.6% over LAB and 52.7% over the LDs. Both Quincel and TSE in previous PB headers have stuck their necks out and said that this is going to be a Conservative hold.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • I order a LFT set on Saturday. I've not had a message saying they have run out so far.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021
    I just tried to order one and it says "There are no more home tests available".

    So either the NHS website has been hacked (not impossible) or they have run out (very poor show).
  • Dr Duncan Robertson
    @Dr_D_Robertson
    ·
    34m
    Considering a large part of the Government's strategy depends on access to lateral flow tests (10 days of daily testing if a contact), this is *a big problem*.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    Third like Carlos Sainz, after Perez stopped.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    TOPPING said:

    I just tried to order one and it says "There are no more home tests available".

    So either the NHS website has been hacked (not impossible) or they have run out (very poor show).

    Yep - was about to report that - time to get two kits from your local pharmacy before they also run out.
  • Really, really struggling to get excited about the umpteenth Lib Dem by election hype of my lifetime. Used to find these things scintillating, but bitter experience has taught me that they mean diddly squat in the great scheme of things.

    The Lib Dems need a mission, not this idiotic “We’re not as bad as them!” positioning.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021
    Sandpit said:

    Third like Carlos Sainz, after Perez stopped.

    What a cracking day to have been there. Hope you enjoyed it.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,257
    I see two tory councilors in N. Shrops have defected. The deputy mayor to the Refuckers and another to Rekkklaim.

    A sign that all is not completely well down range.
  • F##king Kay Burley, a one woman danger to public health. Pushing anti-vaxxer AZN doesn't work and Omicron nothing to see here as nobody has died from it.....

    https://youtu.be/M-Kpzhn-zQ4
  • Another poll showing Labour has re-built the 2017 coalition.

    I think Labour could poll 43% in 2024
  • Mike seems to be engaging in some late expectations management.

    North Shropshire should be a certain LD gain. Governments don't win by-elections and when was the last successful Tory defence against a Lib Dems challenge in a by-election? How many consecutive by-elections have they lost versus LD challengers now.

    In the circumstances, with the by-election while the Government is pissing off its own supporters and when the by-election was caused by a scandal, there's no way people should be turning out to vote Conservative.

    Lib Dem gain nailed on. I'd vote Lib Dem if I was in this seat on Thursday, who here wouldn't?
  • Mr. Sandpit, Sainz had a stellar season. If I remember/have time, I might write about him being the most under-regarded driver.

    He was on it from day 1, has scored very consistently, and is matching or beating Leclerc frequently.

    Shame for Perez, though. His lap versus Hamilton was the highlight from the race. No wonder Verstappen's radio message was full of genuine admiration.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    edited December 2021

    Really, really struggling to get excited about the umpteenth Lib Dem by election hype of my lifetime. Used to find these things scintillating, but bitter experience has taught me that they mean diddly squat in the great scheme of things.

    The Lib Dems need a mission, not this idiotic “We’re not as bad as them!” positioning.

    It's a little difficult for a smallish centrist party. They could decide to go all in on a particular policy platform and then find one of the two bigger parties steals their clothes, and in a few months' everyone's back saying "well what's the point of the Lib Dems, they're just saying the same thing as Con/Lab".
    Ukip and its descendants show that you can get somewhere with a message that other parties don't want to touch. In other words, you need to be unhinged to break in.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Ashcroft poll finds 49% of NI voters want to stay in the UK, 41% want a United Ireland.
    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2021/12/northern-ireland-unification-or-the-union/

    is that because currently they can have their cake (EU passports, free movement, UK economic power, opportunities in UK and EU) and eat it......?
    Probly.
    Why BJ and co don't offer a similar lash up to Scotland I don't know, would keep the ramshackle show on the road for another 20 years (or at least well past BJ's increasingly parlous tenure). Possibly something psychological to do with keeping the home island 'pure'.
    Since when did Scotland have a land border with an EU nation and a history of terrorism like NI?

    As it is Scotland has also got a trade deal with the EU too anyway, Boris did not go for No Deal did he as some hardline Leavers wanted so stop complaining! Scotland is part of the island of GB like England, Scotland and Wales, geographically it is different to NI too, hence it is the UK of GB and NI, Scotland is just a part of GB.

    Given the SNP failed to get a majority in May despite Brexit most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal either
    FUDHY thinks that terrorism should be rewarded. Who’d’ve thunk that of a Franco fan?

    Scots not bothered about Brexit?

    “How well or badly do you think the government are doing at handling Britain's exit from the European Union?”

    Very well 0
    Fairly well 21%
    Fairly badly 28%
    Very badly 42%

    “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”

    Right to leave 29%
    Wrong to leave 60%

    (YouGov/The Times, 1-2 December, Scottish respondents)
    So no different to the 60% who voted Remain in 2016 and still far fewer Scots back Scexit post Boris' EU trade deal than voted Remain in every poll.

    Like NI most Scots in most polls want to stay in the UK even post Brexit
    You said “most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal”. That is palpable nonsense, as illustrated by the polling referred to.

    Zero respondents think that the UK government is handling the exit from the EU very well. That’s in a survey where 22% of respondents are Scottish Conservative voters. Not one of them is satisfied. How do you think the other 78% feel?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    The National Omicron Emergency Booster Surge, as the PM described it, is in effect a race to make 20m appointments, rather than deliver 20m shots, this month. "All adults will now be offered a booster jab by the New Year.” So it matters if the system crashes
    https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1470344656890310658
  • Big Dom with a sensible question....

    Labour/media shd ask: a/ what is current legal status of Paxlovid, b/ how much have we ordered, is in country, c/ what models are there on its effect on hospitalisation vs omicron, d/ what emergency processes are underway for scaling manufacture & distribution in <48 hours...?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,163

    Mike seems to be engaging in some late expectations management.

    North Shropshire should be a certain LD gain. Governments don't win by-elections and when was the last successful Tory defence against a Lib Dems challenge in a by-election? How many consecutive by-elections have they lost versus LD challengers now.

    In the circumstances, with the by-election while the Government is pissing off its own supporters and when the by-election was caused by a scandal, there's no way people should be turning out to vote Conservative.

    Lib Dem gain nailed on. I'd vote Lib Dem if I was in this seat on Thursday, who here wouldn't?

    To be pedantic, the last successful Con defence against the LDs with the LDs coming from 3rd was under two weeks ago :wink:

    A do agree with OGH that the LDs are no longer value. But then, I took that view when they got to 4 in a mini peak pre OB&S and traded out :disappointed: Part of me thinks surely value in Con now, but then your last sentence kicks in and I decide to sit tight instead.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Philip_Thompson you're fooling nobody but yourself by claiming you're not partisan. Which is fine as it goes but it is hilarious to see you accusing me of being partisan.

    There's a difference between opinionated and partisan.

    If I'm partisan why have I called for Boris to be ousted?
    Why did I oppose Plan B?
    Why did I back Rashford's School Meals campaign before it was popular?
    Why did I oppose the National Insurance tax rise?
    Why have I said I want North Shropshire to vote Lib Dem?
    Why did I oppose May's Brexit Deal?

    You take the Labour line no matter what. I stick to my own opinions.
    You were laughably claiming that Boris Johnson was one of the greatest PMs of all time not that long ago IIRC. You also even more laughably said that I was a "bad judge of character" because I didn't share your unquestioning fanboy view of Johnson.

    You don't stick to your opinions. You are a weathervane, but a rather rusty one that takes a while to move. Congratulations, though on finally realising what many of us have known for years: Boris Johnson is unfit to be PM.
    I stand by that.

    He should be ousted but he is one of the most consequential PMs of all time and still one of the best in my lifetime. Even if he has flaws, so do all PMs, they're all only human.

    I'm not so naïve as to think that politicians are honest or are some sort of angel, or that Boris is unique in not being so.
    Philip you really think he is "one of the best PMs" of your lifetime? You are 40 so we have Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May.

    Who are the others?
    39.

    My list is Thatcher, Boris, Cameron, Major, Blair, Brown, May.

    Thatcher is undeniably the best and in a league of her own.

    Then as the OK ones I'd have Boris and Cameron. Not sure which order I'd rank those in the end. I sometimes alternate those around.

    Then we get to the crap ones:
    Major - Tore the party asunder, made the mess of ratifying Maastricht without a Referendum setting up decades of divisions and leading eventually to Brexit and Blair's landslide. On the plus side he handed over the economy in a decent state to Blair.
    Blair - Massive election winner but everything he touched turned awful in the end, allowed Brown to destroy the economy.
    Brown - Destroyed the economy, handed over the nation with a trashed economy leading to a decade of austerity. Signed the Lisbon Treaty violating the referendum pledge again leading to Brexit. No redeeming features at all.
    May - What needs to be said?
    "Massive election winner but everything he touched turned awful"

    ROTFLMAO
    Devolution to kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead.
    Invading Iraq to get rid of Weapons of Mass Destruction.
    Gordon Brown as Chancellor of the Exchequer trashing the economy.

    Is that a legacy of success?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993
    Farooq said:

    Really, really struggling to get excited about the umpteenth Lib Dem by election hype of my lifetime. Used to find these things scintillating, but bitter experience has taught me that they mean diddly squat in the great scheme of things.

    The Lib Dems need a mission, not this idiotic “We’re not as bad as them!” positioning.

    It's a little difficult for a smallish centrist party. They could decide to go all in on a particular policy platform platform and then find one of the two bigger parties steals their clothes, and in a few months' everyone's back saying "well what's the point of the Lib Dems, they're just saying the same thing as Con/Lab".
    Ukip and its descendants show that you can get somewhere with a message that other parties don't want to touch. In other words, you need to be unhinged to break in.
    Yes, basically in FPTP you have to dominate one side of a constitutional or cultural war. That's where the logic leads. The Lib Dems tried that with Brexit and it didn't work.

    The alternative is you become a think tank disguised as a political party, coming up with good policy ideas and allowing others to steal and claim credit for them. I think that is a better approach, and one the yellows have managed successfully many times in the past. Arguably that's what Farage achieved twice too.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,287
    Struggling to log into my betfair account, but if I could -> would definitely lump on Tories at current odds.
  • I am noticing a lot more LibDem Twitter attacks on Labour over the last week or so. It's possible that the real battle in North Shropshire is for second place.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Philip_Thompson you're fooling nobody but yourself by claiming you're not partisan. Which is fine as it goes but it is hilarious to see you accusing me of being partisan.

    There's a difference between opinionated and partisan.

    If I'm partisan why have I called for Boris to be ousted?
    Why did I oppose Plan B?
    Why did I back Rashford's School Meals campaign before it was popular?
    Why did I oppose the National Insurance tax rise?
    Why have I said I want North Shropshire to vote Lib Dem?
    Why did I oppose May's Brexit Deal?

    You take the Labour line no matter what. I stick to my own opinions.
    You were laughably claiming that Boris Johnson was one of the greatest PMs of all time not that long ago IIRC. You also even more laughably said that I was a "bad judge of character" because I didn't share your unquestioning fanboy view of Johnson.

    You don't stick to your opinions. You are a weathervane, but a rather rusty one that takes a while to move. Congratulations, though on finally realising what many of us have known for years: Boris Johnson is unfit to be PM.
    I stand by that.

    He should be ousted but he is one of the most consequential PMs of all time and still one of the best in my lifetime. Even if he has flaws, so do all PMs, they're all only human.

    I'm not so naïve as to think that politicians are honest or are some sort of angel, or that Boris is unique in not being so.
    Philip you really think he is "one of the best PMs" of your lifetime? You are 40 so we have Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May.

    Who are the others?
    39.

    My list is Thatcher, Boris, Cameron, Major, Blair, Brown, May.

    Thatcher is undeniably the best and in a league of her own.

    Then as the OK ones I'd have Boris and Cameron. Not sure which order I'd rank those in the end. I sometimes alternate those around.

    Then we get to the crap ones:
    Major - Tore the party asunder, made the mess of ratifying Maastricht without a Referendum setting up decades of divisions and leading eventually to Brexit and Blair's landslide. On the plus side he handed over the economy in a decent state to Blair.
    Blair - Massive election winner but everything he touched turned awful in the end, allowed Brown to destroy the economy.
    Brown - Destroyed the economy, handed over the nation with a trashed economy leading to a decade of austerity. Signed the Lisbon Treaty violating the referendum pledge again leading to Brexit. No redeeming features at all.
    May - What needs to be said?
    "Massive election winner but everything he touched turned awful"

    ROTFLMAO
    Devolution to kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead.
    Invading Iraq to get rid of Weapons of Mass Destruction.
    Gordon Brown as Chancellor of the Exchequer trashing the economy.

    Is that a legacy of success?
    Do you think it could be applied to anyone else on your list.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612

    Mike seems to be engaging in some late expectations management.

    North Shropshire should be a certain LD gain. Governments don't win by-elections and when was the last successful Tory defence against a Lib Dems challenge in a by-election? How many consecutive by-elections have they lost versus LD challengers now.

    In the circumstances, with the by-election while the Government is pissing off its own supporters and when the by-election was caused by a scandal, there's no way people should be turning out to vote Conservative.

    Lib Dem gain nailed on. I'd vote Lib Dem if I was in this seat on Thursday, who here wouldn't?

    Still no idea IMHO; if if were just LD v Tory I think LDs would be favourite. But the Lab votes from second place might be enough to split the vote and Tories scrape home. I now have a tiny sum on the Tories on the basis they are value when odds against. Rural 'leave' seat and all that.

    Do we know how much Labour are trying?

    One of the most interesting byelections for some time.

  • Scott_xP said:

    The National Omicron Emergency Booster Surge, as the PM described it, is in effect a race to make 20m appointments, rather than deliver 20m shots, this month. "All adults will now be offered a booster jab by the New Year.” So it matters if the system crashes
    https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1470344656890310658

    It is a strange way of presenting it. I wonder if its a deliberate "nudge" rather than spin or over promising. 20m appointments should not be particularly difficult if some are stretched out into February.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    The ReFuk candidate has Covid.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    BBC News - Sports Personality 2021: Tom Daley, Tyson Fury, Adam Peaty, Emma Raducanu, Raheem Sterling and Sarah Storey up for award
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/59607666

    Got to be the lovely Emma nailed on favourite.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Philip_Thompson you're fooling nobody but yourself by claiming you're not partisan. Which is fine as it goes but it is hilarious to see you accusing me of being partisan.

    There's a difference between opinionated and partisan.

    If I'm partisan why have I called for Boris to be ousted?
    Why did I oppose Plan B?
    Why did I back Rashford's School Meals campaign before it was popular?
    Why did I oppose the National Insurance tax rise?
    Why have I said I want North Shropshire to vote Lib Dem?
    Why did I oppose May's Brexit Deal?

    You take the Labour line no matter what. I stick to my own opinions.
    You were laughably claiming that Boris Johnson was one of the greatest PMs of all time not that long ago IIRC. You also even more laughably said that I was a "bad judge of character" because I didn't share your unquestioning fanboy view of Johnson.

    You don't stick to your opinions. You are a weathervane, but a rather rusty one that takes a while to move. Congratulations, though on finally realising what many of us have known for years: Boris Johnson is unfit to be PM.
    I stand by that.

    He should be ousted but he is one of the most consequential PMs of all time and still one of the best in my lifetime. Even if he has flaws, so do all PMs, they're all only human.

    I'm not so naïve as to think that politicians are honest or are some sort of angel, or that Boris is unique in not being so.
    Philip you really think he is "one of the best PMs" of your lifetime? You are 40 so we have Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May.

    Who are the others?
    39.

    My list is Thatcher, Boris, Cameron, Major, Blair, Brown, May.

    Thatcher is undeniably the best and in a league of her own.

    Then as the OK ones I'd have Boris and Cameron. Not sure which order I'd rank those in the end. I sometimes alternate those around.

    Then we get to the crap ones:
    Major - Tore the party asunder, made the mess of ratifying Maastricht without a Referendum setting up decades of divisions and leading eventually to Brexit and Blair's landslide. On the plus side he handed over the economy in a decent state to Blair.
    Blair - Massive election winner but everything he touched turned awful in the end, allowed Brown to destroy the economy.
    Brown - Destroyed the economy, handed over the nation with a trashed economy leading to a decade of austerity. Signed the Lisbon Treaty violating the referendum pledge again leading to Brexit. No redeeming features at all.
    May - What needs to be said?
    "Massive election winner but everything he touched turned awful"

    ROTFLMAO
    Devolution to kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead.
    Invading Iraq to get rid of Weapons of Mass Destruction.
    Gordon Brown as Chancellor of the Exchequer trashing the economy.

    Is that a legacy of success?
    Do you think it could be applied to anyone else on your list.
    Not in the same way, no. Brown and May never won elections, and the others didn't have everything they touched turn awful, so no.
  • Mike seems to be engaging in some late expectations management.

    North Shropshire should be a certain LD gain. Governments don't win by-elections and when was the last successful Tory defence against a Lib Dems challenge in a by-election? How many consecutive by-elections have they lost versus LD challengers now.

    In the circumstances, with the by-election while the Government is pissing off its own supporters and when the by-election was caused by a scandal, there's no way people should be turning out to vote Conservative.

    Lib Dem gain nailed on. I'd vote Lib Dem if I was in this seat on Thursday, who here wouldn't?

    Not many here, Philip, but then this site is inhabited mostly by sentient human beings who by definition are interested in politics.

    Have you ever been to North Shropshire?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    Dura_Ace said:

    I see two tory councilors in N. Shrops have defected. The deputy mayor to the Refuckers and another to Rekkklaim.

    A sign that all is not completely well down range.

    I wonder if either had expected the candidacy, rather than Action Man* from Brum?

    *Nothing wrong with that, but if it is seen as outweighing local expectations ...
  • Given the size of the majority in North Shropshire I find it hard to believe that the Conservatives will lose the seat, but I would like to see them lose.

    Does anyone know if the right-wing fringes will make significant inroads on the Tory vote?
  • Mike seems to be engaging in some late expectations management.

    North Shropshire should be a certain LD gain. Governments don't win by-elections and when was the last successful Tory defence against a Lib Dems challenge in a by-election? How many consecutive by-elections have they lost versus LD challengers now.

    In the circumstances, with the by-election while the Government is pissing off its own supporters and when the by-election was caused by a scandal, there's no way people should be turning out to vote Conservative.

    Lib Dem gain nailed on. I'd vote Lib Dem if I was in this seat on Thursday, who here wouldn't?

    Not many here, Philip, but then this site is inhabited mostly by sentient human beings who by definition are interested in politics.

    Have you ever been to North Shropshire?
    LOL no. That could be a fair point! 😂
  • Farooq said:

    Really, really struggling to get excited about the umpteenth Lib Dem by election hype of my lifetime. Used to find these things scintillating, but bitter experience has taught me that they mean diddly squat in the great scheme of things.

    The Lib Dems need a mission, not this idiotic “We’re not as bad as them!” positioning.

    It's a little difficult for a smallish centrist party. They could decide to go all in on a particular policy platform and then find one of the two bigger parties steals their clothes, and in a few months' everyone's back saying "well what's the point of the Lib Dems, they're just saying the same thing as Con/Lab".
    Ukip and its descendants show that you can get somewhere with a message that other parties don't want to touch. In other words, you need to be unhinged to break in.
    But I don’t think the Lib Dems need a “message” (let alone an unhinged one). I think they need a mission. What do they want to do? I mean, really, really, really want to do? What is their passion? Their desire? Their lust? Their golden upland? Their Jerusalem?

    (Please don’t say local income tax, dog-poo-free pavements or proportional representation. I want to retain some faith in humanity by the end of the day.)
  • That Ipsos Mori poll is pretty sensational - especially when you consider when it was conducted.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    TimS said:

    Farooq said:

    Really, really struggling to get excited about the umpteenth Lib Dem by election hype of my lifetime. Used to find these things scintillating, but bitter experience has taught me that they mean diddly squat in the great scheme of things.

    The Lib Dems need a mission, not this idiotic “We’re not as bad as them!” positioning.

    It's a little difficult for a smallish centrist party. They could decide to go all in on a particular policy platform platform and then find one of the two bigger parties steals their clothes, and in a few months' everyone's back saying "well what's the point of the Lib Dems, they're just saying the same thing as Con/Lab".
    Ukip and its descendants show that you can get somewhere with a message that other parties don't want to touch. In other words, you need to be unhinged to break in.
    Yes, basically in FPTP you have to dominate one side of a constitutional or cultural war. That's where the logic leads. The Lib Dems tried that with Brexit and it didn't work.

    The alternative is you become a think tank disguised as a political party, coming up with good policy ideas and allowing others to steal and claim credit for them. I think that is a better approach, and one the yellows have managed successfully many times in the past. Arguably that's what Farage achieved twice too.
    With Farage it's less Think Tank and more Think Panzer.
  • Agree with the market and disagree with the header. LDs probably still small value, but not enough margin or confidence to make it worth a bet. Definitely would not be backing the Tories though.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    One in five Tory MPs are now voting against Vaccine Passports. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/full-list-the-plan-b-tory-rebels
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021

    BBC News - Sports Personality 2021: Tom Daley, Tyson Fury, Adam Peaty, Emma Raducanu, Raheem Sterling and Sarah Storey up for award
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/59607666

    Got to be the lovely Emma nailed on favourite.

    Tom Daley. 23s (bf). Emma's time will come.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689

    Farooq said:

    Really, really struggling to get excited about the umpteenth Lib Dem by election hype of my lifetime. Used to find these things scintillating, but bitter experience has taught me that they mean diddly squat in the great scheme of things.

    The Lib Dems need a mission, not this idiotic “We’re not as bad as them!” positioning.

    It's a little difficult for a smallish centrist party. They could decide to go all in on a particular policy platform and then find one of the two bigger parties steals their clothes, and in a few months' everyone's back saying "well what's the point of the Lib Dems, they're just saying the same thing as Con/Lab".
    Ukip and its descendants show that you can get somewhere with a message that other parties don't want to touch. In other words, you need to be unhinged to break in.
    But I don’t think the Lib Dems need a “message” (let alone an unhinged one). I think they need a mission. What do they want to do? I mean, really, really, really want to do? What is their passion? Their desire? Their lust? Their golden upland? Their Jerusalem?

    (Please don’t say local income tax, dog-poo-free pavements or proportional representation. I want to retain some faith in humanity by the end of the day.)
    Local income tax, dog-poo-free pavements and proportional representation.

    It's better for you now to lose any misplaced faith ;)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 31,040
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Ashcroft poll finds 49% of NI voters want to stay in the UK, 41% want a United Ireland.
    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2021/12/northern-ireland-unification-or-the-union/

    is that because currently they can have their cake (EU passports, free movement, UK economic power, opportunities in UK and EU) and eat it......?
    Probly.
    Why BJ and co don't offer a similar lash up to Scotland I don't know, would keep the ramshackle show on the road for another 20 years (or at least well past BJ's increasingly parlous tenure). Possibly something psychological to do with keeping the home island 'pure'.
    Since when did Scotland have a land border with an EU nation and a history of terrorism like NI?

    As it is Scotland has also got a trade deal with the EU too anyway, Boris did not go for No Deal did he as some hardline Leavers wanted so stop complaining! Scotland is part of the island of GB like England, Scotland and Wales, geographically it is different to NI too, hence it is the UK of GB and NI, Scotland is just a part of GB.

    Given the SNP failed to get a majority in May despite Brexit most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal either
    FUDHY thinks that terrorism should be rewarded. Who’d’ve thunk that of a Franco fan?

    Scots not bothered about Brexit?

    “How well or badly do you think the government are doing at handling Britain's exit from the European Union?”

    Very well 0
    Fairly well 21%
    Fairly badly 28%
    Very badly 42%

    “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”

    Right to leave 29%
    Wrong to leave 60%

    (YouGov/The Times, 1-2 December, Scottish respondents)
    So no different to the 60% who voted Remain in 2016 and still far fewer Scots back Scexit post Boris' EU trade deal than voted Remain in every poll.

    Like NI most Scots in most polls want to stay in the UK even post Brexit
    You said “most Scots are clearly not that bothered by the Brexit deal”. That is palpable nonsense, as illustrated by the polling referred to.

    Zero respondents think that the UK government is handling the exit from the EU very well. That’s in a survey where 22% of respondents are Scottish Conservative voters. Not one of them is satisfied. How do you think the other 78% feel?
    You do know where this is going to inevitably end?

    'Well, even if most Scots are bothered by the Brexit deal, BJ and English Tories über alles!'
  • Scotland’s health secretary is warning that new measures to slow the spread of Covid will be announced on Tuesday.
  • TOPPING said:

    BBC News - Sports Personality 2021: Tom Daley, Tyson Fury, Adam Peaty, Emma Raducanu, Raheem Sterling and Sarah Storey up for award
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/59607666

    Got to be the lovely Emma nailed on favourite.

    Tom Daley. 23s (bf). Emma's time will come.
    Emma's time has come. Nobody in the history of the sport has ever won a Grand Slam as a qualifier. That is an incredible achievement.

    What exactly has Daley done this year that is comparable to justify his position on the list?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074

    Mr. Sandpit, Sainz had a stellar season. If I remember/have time, I might write about him being the most under-regarded driver.

    He was on it from day 1, has scored very consistently, and is matching or beating Leclerc frequently.

    Shame for Perez, though. His lap versus Hamilton was the highlight from the race. No wonder Verstappen's radio message was full of genuine admiration.

    Perez’ defending against Lewis was fantastic driving, hard but fair in slowing the Mercedes up.

    The word on the street, is that Perez retired with two laps to go because of a fuel pressure issue - for exactly the reason that normally happens.
  • Mike seems to be engaging in some late expectations management.

    North Shropshire should be a certain LD gain. Governments don't win by-elections and when was the last successful Tory defence against a Lib Dems challenge in a by-election? How many consecutive by-elections have they lost versus LD challengers now.

    In the circumstances, with the by-election while the Government is pissing off its own supporters and when the by-election was caused by a scandal, there's no way people should be turning out to vote Conservative.

    Lib Dem gain nailed on. I'd vote Lib Dem if I was in this seat on Thursday, who here wouldn't?

    You didn't answer my question the other day about how often government's successfully defend by-elections.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Philip_Thompson you're fooling nobody but yourself by claiming you're not partisan. Which is fine as it goes but it is hilarious to see you accusing me of being partisan.

    There's a difference between opinionated and partisan.

    If I'm partisan why have I called for Boris to be ousted?
    Why did I oppose Plan B?
    Why did I back Rashford's School Meals campaign before it was popular?
    Why did I oppose the National Insurance tax rise?
    Why have I said I want North Shropshire to vote Lib Dem?
    Why did I oppose May's Brexit Deal?

    You take the Labour line no matter what. I stick to my own opinions.
    You were laughably claiming that Boris Johnson was one of the greatest PMs of all time not that long ago IIRC. You also even more laughably said that I was a "bad judge of character" because I didn't share your unquestioning fanboy view of Johnson.

    You don't stick to your opinions. You are a weathervane, but a rather rusty one that takes a while to move. Congratulations, though on finally realising what many of us have known for years: Boris Johnson is unfit to be PM.
    I stand by that.

    He should be ousted but he is one of the most consequential PMs of all time and still one of the best in my lifetime. Even if he has flaws, so do all PMs, they're all only human.

    I'm not so naïve as to think that politicians are honest or are some sort of angel, or that Boris is unique in not being so.
    Philip you really think he is "one of the best PMs" of your lifetime? You are 40 so we have Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May.

    Who are the others?
    39.

    My list is Thatcher, Boris, Cameron, Major, Blair, Brown, May.

    Thatcher is undeniably the best and in a league of her own.

    Then as the OK ones I'd have Boris and Cameron. Not sure which order I'd rank those in the end. I sometimes alternate those around.

    Then we get to the crap ones:
    Major - Tore the party asunder, made the mess of ratifying Maastricht without a Referendum setting up decades of divisions and leading eventually to Brexit and Blair's landslide. On the plus side he handed over the economy in a decent state to Blair.
    Blair - Massive election winner but everything he touched turned awful in the end, allowed Brown to destroy the economy.
    Brown - Destroyed the economy, handed over the nation with a trashed economy leading to a decade of austerity. Signed the Lisbon Treaty violating the referendum pledge again leading to Brexit. No redeeming features at all.
    May - What needs to be said?
    "Massive election winner but everything he touched turned awful"

    ROTFLMAO
    Devolution to kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead.
    Invading Iraq to get rid of Weapons of Mass Destruction.
    Gordon Brown as Chancellor of the Exchequer trashing the economy.

    Is that a legacy of success?
    In fairness, it wasn’t Tony Blair who coined the infamous “kill nationalism stone dead” quote. In face, Blair was a huge deco-skeptic. He hugely watered down the Constitutional Convention plan, and was sorely tempted to ditch the entire thing post-victory. (In retrospect, he probably should).

    No, I think the coiner of the quote was George Robertson, or some other Scottish Labour total dud of that era.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    Farooq said:

    TimS said:

    Farooq said:

    Really, really struggling to get excited about the umpteenth Lib Dem by election hype of my lifetime. Used to find these things scintillating, but bitter experience has taught me that they mean diddly squat in the great scheme of things.

    The Lib Dems need a mission, not this idiotic “We’re not as bad as them!” positioning.

    It's a little difficult for a smallish centrist party. They could decide to go all in on a particular policy platform platform and then find one of the two bigger parties steals their clothes, and in a few months' everyone's back saying "well what's the point of the Lib Dems, they're just saying the same thing as Con/Lab".
    Ukip and its descendants show that you can get somewhere with a message that other parties don't want to touch. In other words, you need to be unhinged to break in.
    Yes, basically in FPTP you have to dominate one side of a constitutional or cultural war. That's where the logic leads. The Lib Dems tried that with Brexit and it didn't work.

    The alternative is you become a think tank disguised as a political party, coming up with good policy ideas and allowing others to steal and claim credit for them. I think that is a better approach, and one the yellows have managed successfully many times in the past. Arguably that's what Farage achieved twice too.
    With Farage it's less Think Tank and more Think Panzer.
    It's a nice perspective from TimS - reminds me of what Matt Ridley once commented re the Darwinian view of grass-based crops such as wheat. The anthropocentric view is that humankind bred the crops for its own benefit. But a Darwinian would also note that one can argue just as much that people are grasses' way of taking over the world. Just wonder whether Mr Farage is doing better than the LDs, though. He seems to have been absorbed into the Tory Party like a bacterium into an eucaryote to make a new cell organelle.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021
    edited December 2021

    TOPPING said:

    BBC News - Sports Personality 2021: Tom Daley, Tyson Fury, Adam Peaty, Emma Raducanu, Raheem Sterling and Sarah Storey up for award
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/59607666

    Got to be the lovely Emma nailed on favourite.

    Tom Daley. 23s (bf). Emma's time will come.
    Emma's time has come. Nobody in the history of the sport has ever won a Grand Slam as a qualifier. That is an incredible achievement.

    What exactly has Daley done this year that is comparable to justify his position on the list?
    Apart from the Olympic gold you mean?

    Emma has won one tourney well done her I was lifting the roof along with everyone else when she did it. But since then nothing. Tom has literally a lifetime of competitive diving and crowned it with his gold earlier this year.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    edited December 2021
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Third like Carlos Sainz, after Perez stopped.

    What a cracking day to have been there. Hope you enjoyed it.
    It was indeed a great weekend. Didn’t realise until we got home and watched it again on telly, just how controversial those last laps had been. Several dozen plane-loads heading back to Amsterdam with sore heads this morning, I think the green tins of Dutch beer were pretty much sold out at the circuit!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757
    Scott_xP said:

    The National Omicron Emergency Booster Surge, as the PM described it, is in effect a race to make 20m appointments, rather than deliver 20m shots, this month. "All adults will now be offered a booster jab by the New Year.” So it matters if the system crashes
    https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1470344656890310658

    The great unwashed have been sold a pup and might be very disappointed. The offer of a jab was not my interpretation of Johnson's speech. My interpretation was everyone needs to be vaccinated and if they want to be vaccinated can be vaccinated by New Year's Day.
  • Mike seems to be engaging in some late expectations management.

    North Shropshire should be a certain LD gain. Governments don't win by-elections and when was the last successful Tory defence against a Lib Dems challenge in a by-election? How many consecutive by-elections have they lost versus LD challengers now.

    In the circumstances, with the by-election while the Government is pissing off its own supporters and when the by-election was caused by a scandal, there's no way people should be turning out to vote Conservative.

    Lib Dem gain nailed on. I'd vote Lib Dem if I was in this seat on Thursday, who here wouldn't?

    Not many here, Philip, but then this site is inhabited mostly by sentient human beings who by definition are interested in politics.

    Have you ever been to North Shropshire?
    My youngest was born in North Shropshire. I was living in Oswestry at the time
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    Shame Hamilton wasn't on the SPOTY list. But for an extreme bit of bad luck he'd have beaten Max, and he's shown a good amount of grace in his narrow defeat (His team aren't imo, but that's their purview). I'd have voted for him this year.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2021
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    BBC News - Sports Personality 2021: Tom Daley, Tyson Fury, Adam Peaty, Emma Raducanu, Raheem Sterling and Sarah Storey up for award
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/59607666

    Got to be the lovely Emma nailed on favourite.

    Tom Daley. 23s (bf). Emma's time will come.
    Emma's time has come. Nobody in the history of the sport has ever won a Grand Slam as a qualifier. That is an incredible achievement.

    What exactly has Daley done this year that is comparable to justify his position on the list?
    Apart from the Olympic gold you mean?

    Emma has won one tourney well done her I was lifting the roof along with everyone else when she did it. But since then nothing. Tom has literally a lifetime of competitive diving and crowned it with his gold earlier this year.
    Yes apart from an Olympic gold. One Olympic gold is rather puny this year, plenty of Olympians won more than one gold. Winning a Grand Slam as an unknown qualifier is far more impressive than winning a gold and if we're going on golds then many Olympians would be ahead of Daley.

    Is this a lifetime achievement award or a for this year award? For this year, there's no way Daley ranks in the top 6 sportsmen or women of the year. Neither does Sterling.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Philip_Thompson you're fooling nobody but yourself by claiming you're not partisan. Which is fine as it goes but it is hilarious to see you accusing me of being partisan.

    There's a difference between opinionated and partisan.

    If I'm partisan why have I called for Boris to be ousted?
    Why did I oppose Plan B?
    Why did I back Rashford's School Meals campaign before it was popular?
    Why did I oppose the National Insurance tax rise?
    Why have I said I want North Shropshire to vote Lib Dem?
    Why did I oppose May's Brexit Deal?

    You take the Labour line no matter what. I stick to my own opinions.
    You were laughably claiming that Boris Johnson was one of the greatest PMs of all time not that long ago IIRC. You also even more laughably said that I was a "bad judge of character" because I didn't share your unquestioning fanboy view of Johnson.

    You don't stick to your opinions. You are a weathervane, but a rather rusty one that takes a while to move. Congratulations, though on finally realising what many of us have known for years: Boris Johnson is unfit to be PM.
    I stand by that.

    He should be ousted but he is one of the most consequential PMs of all time and still one of the best in my lifetime. Even if he has flaws, so do all PMs, they're all only human.

    I'm not so naïve as to think that politicians are honest or are some sort of angel, or that Boris is unique in not being so.
    Philip you really think he is "one of the best PMs" of your lifetime? You are 40 so we have Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May.

    Who are the others?
    39.

    My list is Thatcher, Boris, Cameron, Major, Blair, Brown, May.

    Thatcher is undeniably the best and in a league of her own.

    Then as the OK ones I'd have Boris and Cameron. Not sure which order I'd rank those in the end. I sometimes alternate those around.

    Then we get to the crap ones:
    Major - Tore the party asunder, made the mess of ratifying Maastricht without a Referendum setting up decades of divisions and leading eventually to Brexit and Blair's landslide. On the plus side he handed over the economy in a decent state to Blair.
    Blair - Massive election winner but everything he touched turned awful in the end, allowed Brown to destroy the economy.
    Brown - Destroyed the economy, handed over the nation with a trashed economy leading to a decade of austerity. Signed the Lisbon Treaty violating the referendum pledge again leading to Brexit. No redeeming features at all.
    May - What needs to be said?
    "Massive election winner but everything he touched turned awful"

    ROTFLMAO
    Devolution to kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead.
    Invading Iraq to get rid of Weapons of Mass Destruction.
    Gordon Brown as Chancellor of the Exchequer trashing the economy.

    Is that a legacy of success?
    In fairness, it wasn’t Tony Blair who coined the infamous “kill nationalism stone dead” quote. In face, Blair was a huge deco-skeptic. He hugely watered down the Constitutional Convention plan, and was sorely tempted to ditch the entire thing post-victory. (In retrospect, he probably should).

    No, I think the coiner of the quote was George Robertson, or some other Scottish Labour total dud of that era.
    It was indeed GR - the idea being that voters would see no need to keep voting SNP and would turn in gratitude to SLAB and keep sending umpteen Labour MPs to Westminster. Some at least of whom would also have come up through Holyrood which would provide plenty of patronage.

    TB did try to wreck the devolution referendum by asking the taxation question - only to find that it scored a majority yes as well.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Sajid Javid urges everyone to 'take a free lateral flow test' before meeting with people, to combat the Omicron Covid variant

    But the government website for ordering them currently says 'there are no more home tests available' https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-12/covid-pm-to-address-the-nation-on-booster-programme-as-uk-experiences-omicron-surge https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1470347348119326720/video/1
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    I just tried to order one and it says "There are no more home tests available".

    So either the NHS website has been hacked (not impossible) or they have run out (very poor show).

    Yep - was about to report that - time to get two kits from your local pharmacy before they also run out.
    Just had on delivered. GLOAT!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Third like Carlos Sainz, after Perez stopped.

    What a cracking day to have been there. Hope you enjoyed it.
    It was indeed a great weekend. Didn’t realise until we got home and watched it again on telly, just how controversial those last laps had been. Several dozen plane-loads heading back to Amsterdam with sore heads this morning, I think the green tins of Dutch beer were pretty much sold out at the circuit!
    Just so long as it wasn't Oranjiboom (sp). It was tried at Essex cricket one year. Dreadful stuff!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Since the 2016 EU referendum the LDs have won every Tory seat they challenged for in a by election eg Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham except Witney.

    However even Witney saw a 19% swing to the LDs so they were all going to be contendors. Therefore most likely it will either be a LD gain or narrow Tory hold
  • Scott_xP said:

    The National Omicron Emergency Booster Surge, as the PM described it, is in effect a race to make 20m appointments, rather than deliver 20m shots, this month. "All adults will now be offered a booster jab by the New Year.” So it matters if the system crashes
    https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1470344656890310658

    The great unwashed have been sold a pup and might be very disappointed. The offer of a jab was not my interpretation of Johnson's speech. My interpretation was everyone needs to be vaccinated and if they want to be vaccinated can be vaccinated by New Year's Day.
    I know I keep banging on about "Perception vs Reality" but this is a good example of it.

    People do not seem to realise that Boris has mastered the Perception/Reality paradigm. His downfall is that he sets the goals too close so that the pigeons come home to roost before the dust settles.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    BBC News - Sports Personality 2021: Tom Daley, Tyson Fury, Adam Peaty, Emma Raducanu, Raheem Sterling and Sarah Storey up for award
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/59607666

    Got to be the lovely Emma nailed on favourite.

    Tom Daley. 23s (bf). Emma's time will come.
    Emma's time has come. Nobody in the history of the sport has ever won a Grand Slam as a qualifier. That is an incredible achievement.

    What exactly has Daley done this year that is comparable to justify his position on the list?
    Apart from the Olympic gold you mean?

    Emma has won one tourney well done her I was lifting the roof along with everyone else when she did it. But since then nothing. Tom has literally a lifetime of competitive diving and crowned it with his gold earlier this year.
    Yes apart from an Olympic gold. One Olympic gold is rather puny this year, plenty of Olympians won more than one gold. Winning a Grand Slam as an unknown qualifier is far more impressive than winning a gold and if we're going on golds then many Olympians would be ahead of Daley.

    Is this a lifetime achievement award or a for this year award? For this year, there's no way Daley ranks in the top 6 sportsmen or women of the year. Neither does Sterling.
    His whole career culminated in his winning the gold this year and hence it is both.

    But look the market agrees with you. Emma is odds on. Long odds on at that.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108

    Scott_xP said:

    The National Omicron Emergency Booster Surge, as the PM described it, is in effect a race to make 20m appointments, rather than deliver 20m shots, this month. "All adults will now be offered a booster jab by the New Year.” So it matters if the system crashes
    https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1470344656890310658

    The great unwashed have been sold a pup and might be very disappointed. The offer of a jab was not my interpretation of Johnson's speech. My interpretation was everyone needs to be vaccinated and if they want to be vaccinated can be vaccinated by New Year's Day.
    Nothing to do with what he said, but didn't Johnson look a mess last night. Scruffy hair (worse than usual), suit awry. You can see Carrie's otherwise engaged.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    Sky reporting from a queue of 30-somethings several hours long to get their boosters.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    BoZo is a liar...

    Dept of Health sources clarify that the promise on boosters is to “offer” them by end of December not “deliver” them. Confusion stemmed from PM saying last night that eligible adults in England “will have the chance to get their booster before the New Year” #Booster #vaccine
    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1470350656435277824
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858

    Scott_xP said:

    The National Omicron Emergency Booster Surge, as the PM described it, is in effect a race to make 20m appointments, rather than deliver 20m shots, this month. "All adults will now be offered a booster jab by the New Year.” So it matters if the system crashes
    https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1470344656890310658

    The great unwashed have been sold a pup and might be very disappointed. The offer of a jab was not my interpretation of Johnson's speech. My interpretation was everyone needs to be vaccinated and if they want to be vaccinated can be vaccinated by New Year's Day.
    Having an appointment in your diary isn't too efficacious against Omicron.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,649
    edited December 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    Sajid Javid urges everyone to 'take a free lateral flow test' before meeting with people, to combat the Omicron Covid variant

    But the government website for ordering them currently says 'there are no more home tests available' https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-12/covid-pm-to-address-the-nation-on-booster-programme-as-uk-experiences-omicron-surge https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1470347348119326720/video/1

    A couple of weeks ago, a poster on the site said they were ordering a pack every day, but not using them at all, because sooner or later the govt would start charging for them!

    The process has been going for many months now, some controls on hoarding/sensible use should be added into the system.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo is a liar...

    Dept of Health sources clarify that the promise on boosters is to “offer” them by end of December not “deliver” them. Confusion stemmed from PM saying last night that eligible adults in England “will have the chance to get their booster before the New Year” #Booster #vaccine
    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1470350656435277824

    He did say "chance". Which could mean, like a Premium Bond chance?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Third like Carlos Sainz, after Perez stopped.

    What a cracking day to have been there. Hope you enjoyed it.
    It was indeed a great weekend. Didn’t realise until we got home and watched it again on telly, just how controversial those last laps had been. Several dozen plane-loads heading back to Amsterdam with sore heads this morning, I think the green tins of Dutch beer were pretty much sold out at the circuit!
    Just so long as it wasn't Oranjiboom (sp). It was tried at Essex cricket one year. Dreadful stuff!
    Oranjeboom

    memorable ad

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nrIPWM1GGE&amp;ab_channel=CervenautasPremiumBeeŕs
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Any of these should be an instant banhammer...

    Unacceptable Covid slang, all of which I’ve seen in the last two years:
    ’rona
    The pando
    Quar
    Panny d

    https://twitter.com/jessbowie/status/1470351075064565761
  • Scott_xP said:

    BoZo is a liar...

    Dept of Health sources clarify that the promise on boosters is to “offer” them by end of December not “deliver” them. Confusion stemmed from PM saying last night that eligible adults in England “will have the chance to get their booster before the New Year” #Booster #vaccine
    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1470350656435277824

    We'll all have the chance. Some will be lucky, others not.
  • Very positive report coming from South Africa on Sky.

    Fewer patients needing oxygen, fewer patients getting hospitalised.

    It really does seem like Omicron could be a blessing in disguise. Especially combined with boosters going out.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,163

    Scott_xP said:

    The National Omicron Emergency Booster Surge, as the PM described it, is in effect a race to make 20m appointments, rather than deliver 20m shots, this month. "All adults will now be offered a booster jab by the New Year.” So it matters if the system crashes
    https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1470344656890310658

    The great unwashed have been sold a pup and might be very disappointed. The offer of a jab was not my interpretation of Johnson's speech. My interpretation was everyone needs to be vaccinated and if they want to be vaccinated can be vaccinated by New Year's Day.
    Having an appointment in your diary isn't too efficacious against Omicron.
    Well, in RCTs we often assess on 'intention to treat' :wink:

    (yes, I do know that's not the same thing at all)
  • glwglw Posts: 7,962

    Scotland’s health secretary is warning that new measures to slow the spread of Covid will be announced on Tuesday.

    Given previous measures only barely worked against Wuhan and Alpha, and really haven't worked well against Delta, I genuinely do not know what NPIs could significantly slow Omicron.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Any of these should be an instant banhammer...

    Unacceptable Covid slang, all of which I’ve seen in the last two years:
    ’rona
    The pando
    Quar
    Panny d

    https://twitter.com/jessbowie/status/1470351075064565761

    What about "The plague"?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Third like Carlos Sainz, after Perez stopped.

    What a cracking day to have been there. Hope you enjoyed it.
    It was indeed a great weekend. Didn’t realise until we got home and watched it again on telly, just how controversial those last laps had been. Several dozen plane-loads heading back to Amsterdam with sore heads this morning, I think the green tins of Dutch beer were pretty much sold out at the circuit!
    Just so long as it wasn't Oranjiboom (sp). It was tried at Essex cricket one year. Dreadful stuff!
    Oranjeboom

    memorable ad

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nrIPWM1GGE&amp;ab_channel=CervenautasPremiumBeeŕs
    Better than the stuff itself.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    BBC News - Sports Personality 2021: Tom Daley, Tyson Fury, Adam Peaty, Emma Raducanu, Raheem Sterling and Sarah Storey up for award
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/59607666

    Got to be the lovely Emma nailed on favourite.

    Tom Daley. 23s (bf). Emma's time will come.
    Emma's time has come. Nobody in the history of the sport has ever won a Grand Slam as a qualifier. That is an incredible achievement.

    What exactly has Daley done this year that is comparable to justify his position on the list?
    Apart from the Olympic gold you mean?

    yeah, QUITE.

    Sat here thinking - fairly sure he finally won gold this year. fairly sure.

    Olympics do seem an awful long time ago!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    "Everyone eligible aged 18 and over in England will have the chance to get their booster before the New Year."

    Just don't see how any reading of Boris Johnson's words last night is consistent with this. It was a scripted address not an extemporised comment at a press conference

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1470351883026018311
    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1470350656435277824
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    BBC News - Sports Personality 2021: Tom Daley, Tyson Fury, Adam Peaty, Emma Raducanu, Raheem Sterling and Sarah Storey up for award
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/59607666

    Got to be the lovely Emma nailed on favourite.

    Tom Daley. 23s (bf). Emma's time will come.
    Emma's time has come. Nobody in the history of the sport has ever won a Grand Slam as a qualifier. That is an incredible achievement.

    What exactly has Daley done this year that is comparable to justify his position on the list?
    Apart from the Olympic gold you mean?

    Emma has won one tourney well done her I was lifting the roof along with everyone else when she did it. But since then nothing. Tom has literally a lifetime of competitive diving and crowned it with his gold earlier this year.
    Yes apart from an Olympic gold. One Olympic gold is rather puny this year, plenty of Olympians won more than one gold. Winning a Grand Slam as an unknown qualifier is far more impressive than winning a gold and if we're going on golds then many Olympians would be ahead of Daley.

    Is this a lifetime achievement award or a for this year award? For this year, there's no way Daley ranks in the top 6 sportsmen or women of the year. Neither does Sterling.
    The point isn't who should win it, the question is who will the BBC-viewing public vote for to win it.

    Sterling is in there because England reached the finals of the Euros. Think the BBC had to put one of the team in for that, but I didn't feel there was any single player whose performances were better than anyone else's. It could have been Kane, but I don't see much to choose between Kane or Sterling.

    Tom Daley - I guess we'll find out how strong the knitting vote is.

    Personally I think I'd vote for Raducanu. Of the six I only saw Sterling and Raducanu, and one of those won while the other didn't. Reckon the British public will vote the same.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    NEW: The Metropolitan Police say that despite photographic evidence of the PM potentially breaking social distancing rules by hosting a Christmas quiz they still do not intend to investigate claims of Christmas parties in Downing Street at this time.
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1470352108692119552
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    Sky reporting from a queue of 30-somethings several hours long to get their boosters.

    Which will get more people to do them.
  • It seems awfully early to be saying Omicron is no danger, I remember the same thing about Delta and COVID itself before that.

    The same people who predicted we wouldn't have another lockdown, wouldn't have any more restrictions are the same people saying Omicron is no threat.

    I would love to be wrong
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    Scott_xP said:

    The National Omicron Emergency Booster Surge, as the PM described it, is in effect a race to make 20m appointments, rather than deliver 20m shots, this month. "All adults will now be offered a booster jab by the New Year.” So it matters if the system crashes
    https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1470344656890310658

    The great unwashed have been sold a pup and might be very disappointed. The offer of a jab was not my interpretation of Johnson's speech. My interpretation was everyone needs to be vaccinated and if they want to be vaccinated can be vaccinated by New Year's Day.
    Nothing to do with what he said, but didn't Johnson look a mess last night. Scruffy hair (worse than usual), suit awry. You can see Carrie's otherwise engaged.
    No, that is all carefully crafted to make him look like an ordinary Red Wall-residing male human being plus new dad burdened by the cares of office.

    Or at least it could be, for all I can tell.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo is a liar...

    Dept of Health sources clarify that the promise on boosters is to “offer” them by end of December not “deliver” them. Confusion stemmed from PM saying last night that eligible adults in England “will have the chance to get their booster before the New Year” #Booster #vaccine
    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1470350656435277824

    We'll all have the chance. Some will be lucky, others not.
    That is NOT how the snake oil salesman sold it last night!
  • juniusjunius Posts: 60
    Have just attempted to order lateral flow test kit online from the NHS. Gave all my personal details accurately. The response I received was "Sorry. We cannot establish that you are genuine."
  • https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1470352799405953034

    Boris Johnson can't even be clear in a pre-recorded video, ffs he is useless
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,163

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Third like Carlos Sainz, after Perez stopped.

    What a cracking day to have been there. Hope you enjoyed it.
    It was indeed a great weekend. Didn’t realise until we got home and watched it again on telly, just how controversial those last laps had been. Several dozen plane-loads heading back to Amsterdam with sore heads this morning, I think the green tins of Dutch beer were pretty much sold out at the circuit!
    Just so long as it wasn't Oranjiboom (sp). It was tried at Essex cricket one year. Dreadful stuff!
    That used to be (maybe still is) stocked at bargain prices in the little shop on campus when I was at uni. We used to have a song "Oranjeboom, oranjeboom, it's not that bad!" (catchier than it sounds, after a few cans). Mind you, that was in comparison to other things in the similar price bracket, but more expensive, Fosters probably. Can't say I've drunk it since then. In the second year we discovered a Polish shop that actually sold drinkable Polish beer at bargain prices.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 31,040
    edited December 2021
    Golly, young Brian Cox was quite studly.



    https://twitter.com/damnfinelad/status/1470348149155938306?s=20
  • Scott_xP said:

    Any of these should be an instant banhammer...

    Unacceptable Covid slang, all of which I’ve seen in the last two years:
    ’rona
    The pando
    Quar
    Panny d

    https://twitter.com/jessbowie/status/1470351075064565761

    On reflection, can we add F1, cricket and football to the BanHammer? Especially F1...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The National Omicron Emergency Booster Surge, as the PM described it, is in effect a race to make 20m appointments, rather than deliver 20m shots, this month. "All adults will now be offered a booster jab by the New Year.” So it matters if the system crashes
    https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1470344656890310658

    The great unwashed have been sold a pup and might be very disappointed. The offer of a jab was not my interpretation of Johnson's speech. My interpretation was everyone needs to be vaccinated and if they want to be vaccinated can be vaccinated by New Year's Day.
    Nothing to do with what he said, but didn't Johnson look a mess last night. Scruffy hair (worse than usual), suit awry. You can see Carrie's otherwise engaged.
    No, that is all carefully crafted to make him look like an ordinary Red Wall-residing male human being plus new dad burdened by the cares of office.

    Or at least it could be, for all I can tell.
    My (admittedly limited) experience of Red Wall functions is that people do their best to look smart at such times. Scruff order is what the poshos tell themselves such people relate to.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: The Metropolitan Police say that despite photographic evidence of the PM potentially breaking social distancing rules by hosting a Christmas quiz they still do not intend to investigate claims of Christmas parties in Downing Street at this time.
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1470352108692119552

    Another 3 year contract extension for Cressida nailed on.
  • My sympathies with Rachael Swindon, Aaron Bastani and Novara at this difficult time
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    glw said:

    Scotland’s health secretary is warning that new measures to slow the spread of Covid will be announced on Tuesday.

    Given previous measures only barely worked against Wuhan and Alpha, and really haven't worked well against Delta, I genuinely do not know what NPIs could significantly slow Omicron.
    Three doses of Jif in your hot broth?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,884

    Mike seems to be engaging in some late expectations management.

    North Shropshire should be a certain LD gain. Governments don't win by-elections and when was the last successful Tory defence against a Lib Dems challenge in a by-election? How many consecutive by-elections have they lost versus LD challengers now.

    In the circumstances, with the by-election while the Government is pissing off its own supporters and when the by-election was caused by a scandal, there's no way people should be turning out to vote Conservative.

    Lib Dem gain nailed on. I'd vote Lib Dem if I was in this seat on Thursday, who here wouldn't?

    You didn't answer my question the other day about how often government's successfully defend by-elections.
    If it helps, I've gone and looked.

    Since WWII, a quick tot-up seems to be 192 defences, 74 losses.

    Splitting that down to whether the Government stayed in at the following election or was replaced by the opposition:

    - In Parliaments where the Government retained power at the subsequent GE: 120 defences, 28 losses
    - In Parliaments where the Government were defeated at the subsequent GE: 72 defences, 46 losses.

    If we look just since 1979, it's 32 defences and 36 losses, which break down 28/22 when the Government retain power subsequently and 4/12 when they do not.

    (May be a bit off by one or two here and there because it's a quick count)
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    glw said:

    Scotland’s health secretary is warning that new measures to slow the spread of Covid will be announced on Tuesday.

    Given previous measures only barely worked against Wuhan and Alpha, and really haven't worked well against Delta, I genuinely do not know what NPIs could significantly slow Omicron.
    Severe curbs on social interactions - lockdown, or something close to it - might be enough. Although, given Omicron's likely transmissibility advantage relative to all previous variants, even that mightn't work - we won't know for sure until it's actually tried.

    If there are more measures in Scotland then they'll presumably consist of restrictions in areas such as business opening hours and numbers allowed to gather in indoor settings? They've been consistently more cautious than England in terms of masking so (although I stand to be corrected by our Caledonian contingent) I doubt there's very much more they can do in that regard, save for making primary school kids wear them.

    Regardless, I doubt that whatever is announced this time round will make very much difference, but the situation is moving very quickly and something far more Draconian might only be another few days away - for everyone, not just the Scots.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021
    junius said:

    Have just attempted to order lateral flow test kit online from the NHS. Gave all my personal details accurately. The response I received was "Sorry. We cannot establish that you are genuine."

    Are you genuine?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 21,298

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: The Metropolitan Police say that despite photographic evidence of the PM potentially breaking social distancing rules by hosting a Christmas quiz they still do not intend to investigate claims of Christmas parties in Downing Street at this time.
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1470352108692119552

    Another 3 year contract extension for Cressida nailed on.
    For all we know there were people from the Met present at some of the parties.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Third like Carlos Sainz, after Perez stopped.

    What a cracking day to have been there. Hope you enjoyed it.
    It was indeed a great weekend. Didn’t realise until we got home and watched it again on telly, just how controversial those last laps had been. Several dozen plane-loads heading back to Amsterdam with sore heads this morning, I think the green tins of Dutch beer were pretty much sold out at the circuit!
    Just so long as it wasn't Oranjiboom (sp). It was tried at Essex cricket one year. Dreadful stuff!
    That used to be (maybe still is) stocked at bargain prices in the little shop on campus when I was at uni. We used to have a song "Oranjeboom, oranjeboom, it's not that bad!" (catchier than it sounds, after a few cans). Mind you, that was in comparison to other things in the similar price bracket, but more expensive, Fosters probably. Can't say I've drunk it since then. In the second year we discovered a Polish shop that actually sold drinkable Polish beer at bargain prices.
    To be fair, Oranjeboom isn't the worst 'lager' I've ever tried. I once tried the 2% Fosters they sell at Sydney Cricket Ground. I found it difficult to belive anyone could tolerate enough of the stuff to get drunk.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607

    Boris Johnson can't even be clear in a pre-recorded video, ffs he is useless

    He was very clear.

    He just wasn't truthful
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Dr Foxy fell for this conspiracy....

    Yet more astute observations from Westminster’s favourite barrister: Jolyon Maugham got so excited by the Mirror‘s Zoom quiz picture last night that he managed to confuse Downing Street curtains with a bin bag, implying the PM had tried covering up a CCTV camera. Would anything say “there’s nothing to see here” quite like sticking a bin bag over a camera, only to then hop straight onto a video call?

    https://order-order.com/2021/12/13/jolyon-backtracks-on-boris-bin-bag-conspiracy/

    It reminds me of Peston and the the "doctored" picture of Boris on the phone to Biden.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689

    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Third like Carlos Sainz, after Perez stopped.

    What a cracking day to have been there. Hope you enjoyed it.
    It was indeed a great weekend. Didn’t realise until we got home and watched it again on telly, just how controversial those last laps had been. Several dozen plane-loads heading back to Amsterdam with sore heads this morning, I think the green tins of Dutch beer were pretty much sold out at the circuit!
    Just so long as it wasn't Oranjiboom (sp). It was tried at Essex cricket one year. Dreadful stuff!
    That used to be (maybe still is) stocked at bargain prices in the little shop on campus when I was at uni. We used to have a song "Oranjeboom, oranjeboom, it's not that bad!" (catchier than it sounds, after a few cans). Mind you, that was in comparison to other things in the similar price bracket, but more expensive, Fosters probably. Can't say I've drunk it since then. In the second year we discovered a Polish shop that actually sold drinkable Polish beer at bargain prices.
    To be fair, Oranjeboom isn't the worst 'lager' I've ever tried. I once tried the 2% Fosters they sell at Sydney Cricket Ground. I found it difficult to belive anyone could tolerate enough of the stuff to get drunk.
    Is that not exactly the point?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    Scott_xP said:

    One in five Tory MPs are now voting against Vaccine Passports. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/full-list-the-plan-b-tory-rebels

    The whips are expecting to see resignations, certainly among the junior ranks of government.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    The UK Covid Alert Level has been increased from Level 3 to Level 4 https://twitter.com/Ryanair/status/1470347823933755392/photo/1


This discussion has been closed.