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Shropshire North should be a certain CON hold but…. – politicalbetting.com
Shropshire North should be a certain CON hold but…. – politicalbetting.com
On the face of it there should be no doubt about the outcome of Thursday’s by-election in Shropshire North. At GE2019 the Tories retained the seat with a majority of 40.6% over LAB and 52.7% over the LDs. Both Quincel and TSE in previous PB headers have stuck their necks out and said that this is going to be a Conservative hold.
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So either the NHS website has been hacked (not impossible) or they have run out (very poor show).
@Dr_D_Robertson
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Considering a large part of the Government's strategy depends on access to lateral flow tests (10 days of daily testing if a contact), this is *a big problem*.
The Lib Dems need a mission, not this idiotic “We’re not as bad as them!” positioning.
A sign that all is not completely well down range.
https://youtu.be/M-Kpzhn-zQ4
I think Labour could poll 43% in 2024
North Shropshire should be a certain LD gain. Governments don't win by-elections and when was the last successful Tory defence against a Lib Dems challenge in a by-election? How many consecutive by-elections have they lost versus LD challengers now.
In the circumstances, with the by-election while the Government is pissing off its own supporters and when the by-election was caused by a scandal, there's no way people should be turning out to vote Conservative.
Lib Dem gain nailed on. I'd vote Lib Dem if I was in this seat on Thursday, who here wouldn't?
He was on it from day 1, has scored very consistently, and is matching or beating Leclerc frequently.
Shame for Perez, though. His lap versus Hamilton was the highlight from the race. No wonder Verstappen's radio message was full of genuine admiration.
Zero respondents think that the UK government is handling the exit from the EU very well. That’s in a survey where 22% of respondents are Scottish Conservative voters. Not one of them is satisfied. How do you think the other 78% feel?
https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1470344656890310658
Labour/media shd ask: a/ what is current legal status of Paxlovid, b/ how much have we ordered, is in country, c/ what models are there on its effect on hospitalisation vs omicron, d/ what emergency processes are underway for scaling manufacture & distribution in <48 hours...?
A do agree with OGH that the LDs are no longer value. But then, I took that view when they got to 4 in a mini peak pre OB&S and traded out
Invading Iraq to get rid of Weapons of Mass Destruction.
Gordon Brown as Chancellor of the Exchequer trashing the economy.
Is that a legacy of success?
The alternative is you become a think tank disguised as a political party, coming up with good policy ideas and allowing others to steal and claim credit for them. I think that is a better approach, and one the yellows have managed successfully many times in the past. Arguably that's what Farage achieved twice too.
Do we know how much Labour are trying?
One of the most interesting byelections for some time.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/59607666
Got to be the lovely Emma nailed on favourite.
Have you ever been to North Shropshire?
*Nothing wrong with that, but if it is seen as outweighing local expectations ...
Does anyone know if the right-wing fringes will make significant inroads on the Tory vote?
(Please don’t say local income tax, dog-poo-free pavements or proportional representation. I want to retain some faith in humanity by the end of the day.)
'Well, even if most Scots are bothered by the Brexit deal, BJ and English Tories über alles!'
What exactly has Daley done this year that is comparable to justify his position on the list?
The word on the street, is that Perez retired with two laps to go because of a fuel pressure issue - for exactly the reason that normally happens.
No, I think the coiner of the quote was George Robertson, or some other Scottish Labour total dud of that era.
Emma has won one tourney well done her I was lifting the roof along with everyone else when she did it. But since then nothing. Tom has literally a lifetime of competitive diving and crowned it with his gold earlier this year.
Is this a lifetime achievement award or a for this year award? For this year, there's no way Daley ranks in the top 6 sportsmen or women of the year. Neither does Sterling.
TB did try to wreck the devolution referendum by asking the taxation question - only to find that it scored a majority yes as well.
But the government website for ordering them currently says 'there are no more home tests available' https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-12/covid-pm-to-address-the-nation-on-booster-programme-as-uk-experiences-omicron-surge https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1470347348119326720/video/1
However even Witney saw a 19% swing to the LDs so they were all going to be contendors. Therefore most likely it will either be a LD gain or narrow Tory hold
People do not seem to realise that Boris has mastered the Perception/Reality paradigm. His downfall is that he sets the goals too close so that the pigeons come home to roost before the dust settles.
But look the market agrees with you. Emma is odds on. Long odds on at that.
Dept of Health sources clarify that the promise on boosters is to “offer” them by end of December not “deliver” them. Confusion stemmed from PM saying last night that eligible adults in England “will have the chance to get their booster before the New Year” #Booster #vaccine
https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1470350656435277824
The process has been going for many months now, some controls on hoarding/sensible use should be added into the system.
memorable ad
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nrIPWM1GGE&ab_channel=CervenautasPremiumBeeŕs
Unacceptable Covid slang, all of which I’ve seen in the last two years:
’rona
The pando
Quar
Panny d
https://twitter.com/jessbowie/status/1470351075064565761
Fewer patients needing oxygen, fewer patients getting hospitalised.
It really does seem like Omicron could be a blessing in disguise. Especially combined with boosters going out.
(yes, I do know that's not the same thing at all)
Sat here thinking - fairly sure he finally won gold this year. fairly sure.
Olympics do seem an awful long time ago!
Just don't see how any reading of Boris Johnson's words last night is consistent with this. It was a scripted address not an extemporised comment at a press conference
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1470351883026018311
https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1470350656435277824
Sterling is in there because England reached the finals of the Euros. Think the BBC had to put one of the team in for that, but I didn't feel there was any single player whose performances were better than anyone else's. It could have been Kane, but I don't see much to choose between Kane or Sterling.
Tom Daley - I guess we'll find out how strong the knitting vote is.
Personally I think I'd vote for Raducanu. Of the six I only saw Sterling and Raducanu, and one of those won while the other didn't. Reckon the British public will vote the same.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1470352108692119552
The same people who predicted we wouldn't have another lockdown, wouldn't have any more restrictions are the same people saying Omicron is no threat.
I would love to be wrong
Or at least it could be, for all I can tell.
Boris Johnson can't even be clear in a pre-recorded video, ffs he is useless
https://twitter.com/damnfinelad/status/1470348149155938306?s=20
Since WWII, a quick tot-up seems to be 192 defences, 74 losses.
Splitting that down to whether the Government stayed in at the following election or was replaced by the opposition:
- In Parliaments where the Government retained power at the subsequent GE: 120 defences, 28 losses
- In Parliaments where the Government were defeated at the subsequent GE: 72 defences, 46 losses.
If we look just since 1979, it's 32 defences and 36 losses, which break down 28/22 when the Government retain power subsequently and 4/12 when they do not.
(May be a bit off by one or two here and there because it's a quick count)
If there are more measures in Scotland then they'll presumably consist of restrictions in areas such as business opening hours and numbers allowed to gather in indoor settings? They've been consistently more cautious than England in terms of masking so (although I stand to be corrected by our Caledonian contingent) I doubt there's very much more they can do in that regard, save for making primary school kids wear them.
Regardless, I doubt that whatever is announced this time round will make very much difference, but the situation is moving very quickly and something far more Draconian might only be another few days away - for everyone, not just the Scots.
He just wasn't truthful
Yet more astute observations from Westminster’s favourite barrister: Jolyon Maugham got so excited by the Mirror‘s Zoom quiz picture last night that he managed to confuse Downing Street curtains with a bin bag, implying the PM had tried covering up a CCTV camera. Would anything say “there’s nothing to see here” quite like sticking a bin bag over a camera, only to then hop straight onto a video call?
https://order-order.com/2021/12/13/jolyon-backtracks-on-boris-bin-bag-conspiracy/
It reminds me of Peston and the the "doctored" picture of Boris on the phone to Biden.
If we aim for 1m vaccinations/day, I'm fine with missing it slightly over Christmas. If everyone is booked in before 31 December for dates in January, that's fine by me.