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Shropshire North should be a certain CON hold but…. – politicalbetting.com

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    Vanilla searches are such fun

    13 September 2020

    @state_go_away said:

    "But car seat belts have been proven to save lives ."

    @Philip_Thompson said:

    "So have masks.

    I can understand you wanting to make an argument over philosophy, to say I don't care if this saves lives . . . But to pretend this is about what works is a nonsense. Masks work."
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3017587/#Comment_3017587
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,952

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Lying is what politicians do. It isn't good.
    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Philip leads by example
    Indeed I've never lied here. If you want to slander me, then please say a lie I've said. Having a different opinion to you isn't a lie.
    It's not slander; I've detailed your lies in the previous conversation.
    You are a liar who lies, and you got upset when I detailed them. Nothing more to say.
    You lied. You claimed I said "masks don't work" when I actually said "mask mandates don't work".

    Then you dug in and quoted me saying "mask mandates don't work" and claimed that as proof of me saying "masks don't work". Its not, its proof of me saying "mask mandates don't work".

    If you want to change or omit the words someone says, then put words they didn't say in quotation marks, then you are the one who is dishonest. If you have to change what someone said to mock or insult them, then you've already lost the argument - and your credibility.
    you're still lying
    You are. I said mask mandates, you claimed I said masks then literally quoted me saying mask mandates.

    You have no integrity it seems. You could have admitted you had made a mistake, not understanding the distinction between the two, but you didn't.
    You are correct. I've been disturbed by the (deliberate?) conflation of masks with mask mandates.

    There are arguments on both sides, for both topics, but misrepresenting posters' views is not on.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,964
    Pulpstar said:

    WFH anecdote:

    Around a dozen in our team meeting this morning. Only one in the office.

    WFH anecdote 2 - IT issues with my setup. IT looking into it, need to use the Works photocopier and printer anyway so in office rest of today :p .

    Couldn't book other half for love nor money on NHS system earlier.
    Twas down this morning but it seems to be fixed now.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    380,359 booster vaccinations in United Kingdom exc Wales yesterday (273,070 the previous Sunday)

    England 333,866
    Scotland 38,343
    NI 8,150


    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1470394040671780878?s=20

    Going to have to 4x that.....
    That's a pretty solid increase though, run rate is currently 3m per week, this carried through would be 4.2m per week. I suspect with the removal of the 15m waiting time rule the rate could go up very significantly and it will end up becoming a question of demand by the first week of Jan.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,192

    @Philip_Thompson said BoJo was quite athletic. Are you having a laugh

    No. He's a cyclist, not a couch potato.

    I find the idea that he's 17.5 stone entirely plausible.
    I'm also a cyclist. I'm about four inches taller than the Prime Minister, a bit heavier, but with a bit lower BMI because of the height advantage, so it's very plausible that he could have a bit of extra leg muscle, still look a bit chubby, without looking relatively that obese at 17.5 stone.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,431
    The conversation has moved on (to a new thread) btw
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021

    The most incredible thing about Peleton, they lost money during the pandemic.....apparently they kept advertising to such a crazy extent, such their customer acquisition costs were so high they never making it back.

    Lost 16% market cap last week because they authorised Sex and the City to use their name but did not enquire about the plot. It was to kill off Mr Big with a heart attack.
    The management sounds like they are totally incompetent.

    Apparently their profit margin on each bike is hardly anything, so they need the subscriptions. The advertising spend they did during the pandemic, they literally kept doubling down, to the extent where they needed to be converting new customers at rates they have never achieved before and for them to become members for lengths like they have never managed, for a niche product that costs £2k to start and then £40 / month...so its not like you are flogging stuff in a pound shop. The number of people in the world who can even afford their product is seriously capped.
    And then they reduced the price of their product, which must have seriously pissed off those who had recently purchased at the full price.

    The real value in Peloton as a business is the data it owns. As long as that is being stored and managed properly, it is going to be fine.

    What essential valuable data are they collecting? Their systems don't measure things like heart rate accurately. I don't believe the bikes don't even have accurate power meters built in.

    If you were hoping that you were getting fantastic fitness data, I don't see it, in the way you get it from Zwift, where all the keeno's are inputting their stats every week, wearing their heart monitors, they use smart trainers which produces extremely detailed power, cadence, etc data....

    Zwift is a gold mine of health tracking data.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,139
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Lying is what politicians do. It isn't good.
    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Philip leads by example
    Indeed I've never lied here. If you want to slander me, then please say a lie I've said. Having a different opinion to you isn't a lie.
    It's not slander; I've detailed your lies in the previous conversation.
    You are a liar who lies, and you got upset when I detailed them. Nothing more to say.
    You lied. You claimed I said "masks don't work" when I actually said "mask mandates don't work".

    Then you dug in and quoted me saying "mask mandates don't work" and claimed that as proof of me saying "masks don't work". Its not, its proof of me saying "mask mandates don't work".

    If you want to change or omit the words someone says, then put words they didn't say in quotation marks, then you are the one who is dishonest. If you have to change what someone said to mock or insult them, then you've already lost the argument - and your credibility.
    you're still lying
    You are. I said mask mandates, you claimed I said masks then literally quoted me saying mask mandates.

    You have no integrity it seems. You could have admitted you had made a mistake, not understanding the distinction between the two, but you didn't.
    lies lies lies. liar philip is lying still
    Unparliamentary language! Suspended from the House for 30 days or resign and trigger a by election, which is it to be?
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974

    Dura_Ace said:

    Surely the problem with Peloton is that you buy the bike and then you never buy one again, I get they try to work around that with subscriptions but it's not like a phone, or a car that you have to replace.

    It's a bike you sit on and ride - and people keep bikes for a long time

    Peleton bikes are junk. Anybody who can drop serious Watts bombs will trash the bottom bracket in them in no time.
    Why not just go for a bike ride? I have never understood the appeal of biking in your own living room.
    AIUI there's a sort of imitation sat nav on the front of the thing and you can pretend you're riding through Paris or Bangkok and waving at the girls.
    Or doing something insane, like cycling from Calais to Rome.

    Or something like that.
    They charge extra for one that ups the resistance
    Not, I am reliably informed, something you have to worry about with some at least of the girls in Bangkok.
    You naughty boy
    Not me; been talking to people.
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    Sony has said its £50m investment in the Welsh makers of His Dark Materials could propel it to become Europe's biggest drama producer. Cardiff-based Bad Wolf sold a majority stake to Sony Pictures and said the deal would allow it to expand..

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-59629727
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,672
    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    For @CorrectHorseBattery as I got it on the last thread too late -

    I remember when @Philip_Thompson told us that Johnson wasn't fat but just really muscular.

    I never said that.

    I said I found it entirely believable he was 17.5 stone when @kinabalu was saying there was no way he was that heavy.
    That's not what you meant and we both know it
    What was actually said -

    "@kinabalu said:
    BoJo was NOT seventeen and a half stone (!) before the virus He's only 5 ft 8 inches tall. If he had weighed that much he would have looked like Mr Creosote.

    Is he spinning yet another self-serving yarn?"

    "@Philip_Thompson said:

    17 and a half stone isn't anywhere near as much as that!

    Besides he's quite athletic as well as being on the heavy side. Remember that muscle is heavier by volume than fat so two people of the same volume can weigh quite different amounts."
    15 May 2020

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2856928/#Comment_2856928

    This was followed by 18 months of @kinabalu claiming Phil had said Boris was "mainly muscle"
    Great news you've unearthed the source material since it shows that - my horsing around aside - there is a solid basis to the scandal.

    It started with me casting doubt on Johnson's claim to have been 17.5 stone pre Covid. The suspicion (of mine) was he'd exaggerated this in order to exaggerate his weight loss due to his illness. To in turn exaggerate how serious it'd been for him.

    I still have this suspicion but this is not the point. The point is that Philip Thompson leapt in and opined that the MMM could easily have been that heavy despite being quite short and that the reason he wouldn't have looked like Danny DeVito is that he is of 'athletic build' with a 'high muscle to fat ratio'.

    So there we are. I dropped it ages ago but I make no apology for running with it for a while. It merited that. It was peak PT BJ adoration. A real moment in time.
    Sorry but you're talking absolute bollocks. I never said he has a 'high muscle to fat ratio', that's literally not in the quote. You're inventing your own words.

    I said he is 'athletic' as well as 'on the heavy side' and he is.

    17.5 stone is nothing that special for someone 5'8" its entirely believable and not remotely Mr Creosote.
    "He's quite athletic as well as being on the heavy side. Remember that muscle is heavier by volume than fat so two people of the same volume can weigh quite different amounts."

    That's the quote in its full and unadorned state.

    Do I seriously misrepresent it with "of athletic build with a high muscle to fat ratio"?

    I think not but I'm happy for the select band of those interested to make up their own mind.

    Whole thing is ancient history anyway. We have a by-election this week and what I'm wondering is, how much have you lumped on the 'nailed on' LibDems?
    Hmmmmm. Density of muscle tissue is about 1.1 tonne per cubic metre. Adipose tissue, 0.9. But for visual impact one wants the inverses, which are helpfully 0.9 and 1.1 cu m per tonne. The implication is that a Mr Johnson composed solely of muscle (except for, guessing, 50% for all the rest, skeleton, innards, blood, skin etc.) is going to have about a tenth of the volume of one composed solely of blubber. But that is volume so one wants the 2/3 root of that to get the area ie visual impact. And then knock half off as it only applies to half of him. Is something like a 3% smaller BJ going to make enough difference to resolve the argument either way?
    Ah well that's a different strand to the debate. When Philip says a man could be 5 foot 8 and 17.5 stone and yet not look fat due to being a muscly athletic type, is this in and of itself a viable assertion? That's what you're asking here. The answer would need some research.
    Sorry - I meant 'composed solely of muscle [except for skeleton etc] is going to have about a tenth less of the volume of one composed solely of blubber'. But the rough conclusion is the same.

    In any case a 5'8" man weighing 17.5 stone has a notional BMI of just under 37 - well in the red area for 'Obese' acc to the NHS unlesss he is notably muscular, but not Mr Creosote levels in any case.

    And did not Mr J himself admit he needed to lose weight? That implies adipose, not muscle.
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    Dura_Ace said:

    Surely the problem with Peloton is that you buy the bike and then you never buy one again, I get they try to work around that with subscriptions but it's not like a phone, or a car that you have to replace.

    It's a bike you sit on and ride - and people keep bikes for a long time

    Peleton bikes are junk. Anybody who can drop serious Watts bombs will trash the bottom bracket in them in no time.
    Why not just go for a bike ride? I have never understood the appeal of biking in your own living room.
    AIUI there's a sort of imitation sat nav on the front of the thing and you can pretend you're riding through Paris or Bangkok and waving at the girls.
    Or doing something insane, like cycling from Calais to Rome.

    Or something like that.
    Sounds erm... weird. When there are real streets and real countryside to be had. But, some people seem to want to actively increase the amount of screens in their lives, for some unknown reason.
    We don't really have space for a treadmill or bike (and I'm tight), but sometimes running or cycling outside can be a bit of a hassle. I wake up early, and at this time of year a run can mean putting my headtorch on, a reflective jacket and a flashing armband, driving to my run, running, driving back, showering, and then going on PB. ;)

    I can see the appeal of just chucking on some tracksuit bottoms, going into the spare room and doing ten K on a treadmill whilst watching something on Prime. It probably saves 45-60 minutes - and is much safer.

    Also, I know someone with a bike who apparently does ten minutes on it between her meetings whilst WFH; slow or fast depending on how she feels after the previous meeting. She swears by it; says it calms her down and clears her mind.

    Each to their own.
    Great during Test Matches.
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    Vanilla searches are such fun

    13 September 2020

    @state_go_away said:

    "But car seat belts have been proven to save lives ."

    @Philip_Thompson said:

    "So have masks.

    I can understand you wanting to make an argument over philosophy, to say I don't care if this saves lives . . . But to pretend this is about what works is a nonsense. Masks work."
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3017587/#Comment_3017587

    13 July 2020 (why always the 13th?!?)

    @Casino_Royale said:

    "Masks are twattish bollocks.

    I will do by absolute best to wear one as little as possible and break the boundaries of the rules as much as I can.

    Placebo crap. Might as well fit a condom onto a cucumber and strap it onto your head."

    @Philip_Thompson said:

    "I don't understand your problem with masks.

    The scientific evidence is they work and the more they minimise R the less we need other actions to take the burden.

    I'd rather masks than alternative restrictions."
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    MaffewMaffew Posts: 235

    Dura_Ace said:

    Surely the problem with Peloton is that you buy the bike and then you never buy one again, I get they try to work around that with subscriptions but it's not like a phone, or a car that you have to replace.

    It's a bike you sit on and ride - and people keep bikes for a long time

    Peleton bikes are junk. Anybody who can drop serious Watts bombs will trash the bottom bracket in them in no time.
    Why not just go for a bike ride? I have never understood the appeal of biking in your own living room.
    AIUI there's a sort of imitation sat nav on the front of the thing and you can pretend you're riding through Paris or Bangkok and waving at the girls.
    Or doing something insane, like cycling from Calais to Rome.

    Or something like that.
    Sounds erm... weird. When there are real streets and real countryside to be had. But, some people seem to want to actively increase the amount of screens in their lives, for some unknown reason.
    We have an exercise bike (much cheaper one than peleton mind you) and I used it because going out cycling in the dark during lockdown in winter was utterly unappealing. As soon as things opened up a bit and the days got longer I was done with it. I cycle for transport rather than exercise anyway, but during lockdown it was one way of getting some exercise.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,952
    The standard PB joke applies here

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    I just don't understand how - given the clear evidence on hospitalisation rates, length of average stay for those who are hospitalised, and death rates - there is so much panic about the new variant. Especially given UK's relatively high vaccination rates.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,565

    Very positive report coming from South Africa on Sky.

    Fewer patients needing oxygen, fewer patients getting hospitalised.

    It really does seem like Omicron could be a blessing in disguise. Especially combined with boosters going out.

    +1
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    theakestheakes Posts: 842
    See Lib Dems put out there usual Monday type by election report, these usually say its neck and neck. No different today Cons 40, Lib Dem 39, Labour 12, others 9. Each time they do this the result 3 days later is a win for them. Will it repeat again?
    Actually I think they are comfortably ahead, 4-5%, the Labour votes going to be in single figures. Probably wrong, hey ho.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Months and months of lies:

    A lot of the mask zealots and the antivaxxers and the lockdown zealots all use the same or similar fake arguments. Vaccines work. The rest of that bullshit doesn't.
    (FALSE, masks and lockdowns work)

    Masks have been trialled and failed
    (FALSE)

    The thing that works isn't cloth masks, its social distancing.
    (FALSE, both work)

    A big reason masks are so popular in East Asia is due to very poor air quality and not due to viruses.
    (WEIRD)

    No, for the vaccinated its not any mitigation whatsoever that they're not going to infect others - which is what the mask is supposedly about.
    (FALSE, vaccinated people can infect people)
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    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Just had my booster at the village pharmacy. 2 queues - one for pre-booked and one for drop ins. All very efficient. They checked me in and jabbed me within 2 minutes. Lots of people just turned up for jabs, many of them looked under 40 and some under 30. It is a small pharmacy so just one person jabbing but there were 3 large plastic clinical waste tubs full of used syringes that I could see. I got Moderna.

    I imagine today's vaccine number is going to be big but as others have said we need to be doing almost 1M/day. Previous record was I think 800k earlier in the year.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,192
    edited December 2021

    Dura_Ace said:

    Surely the problem with Peloton is that you buy the bike and then you never buy one again, I get they try to work around that with subscriptions but it's not like a phone, or a car that you have to replace.

    It's a bike you sit on and ride - and people keep bikes for a long time

    Peleton bikes are junk. Anybody who can drop serious Watts bombs will trash the bottom bracket in them in no time.
    Why not just go for a bike ride? I have never understood the appeal of biking in your own living room.
    Rain. Ice. Traffic.

    I don't have one, but the appeal is obvious.

    A friend has a stand he can attach one of his road bikes to and then cycles on his living room while he watches TV. This is healthier than knitting and raiding the box of chocolates while catching up on Doctor Who.
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    MaxPB said:

    Apparently the lorry driver shortage is now being changed from critical to just severe, in line with loads of other European countries. As if by magic, the market pushed up salaries and an extra 40k drivers were recruited for domestic deliveries.

    I'm sure I remember being told this would never happen and that we'd all end up having to kill and cook the nearest rat or squirrel this Christmas but happily the economics of supply and demand are as sound as ever. There's reports that driver wages are still rising because there's some shortages and that companies are finally investing in better hub/spoke infrastructure for their supply chains rather than relying on some unfortunate guy driving 27 hours from Italy and then 27h back to Italy.

    Having told the government to stop fucking around they finally woke up and we've avoided the worst of it, yes. Have just been on the phone with our logistics partner, their solution to having had had to explode their labour costs is to expand their distribution business. Take on even more drivers and win more contracts to pay for them. Works for them but it is last man standing.

    Of course we can't see 35-50% pay rises for drivers and not see it flow through to end users. Hence the massive inflationary pressure that is now here starting to make its presence felt...
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,192

    Just been in for booster jab. Why @NicolaSturgeon. @HumzaYousaf am I being asked by a nurse about my ethnicity? One question survey, am I white Scottish or white British? No other questions. This is blatant political data collection and wholly inappropriate in a hospital setting!!

    https://twitter.com/PerthScot/status/1470330756266401792?s=20

    I had that question, but I think it was "white other British", which correctly includes Scottish as a subset of British.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,192

    Dura_Ace said:

    Surely the problem with Peloton is that you buy the bike and then you never buy one again, I get they try to work around that with subscriptions but it's not like a phone, or a car that you have to replace.

    It's a bike you sit on and ride - and people keep bikes for a long time

    Peleton bikes are junk. Anybody who can drop serious Watts bombs will trash the bottom bracket in them in no time.
    Why not just go for a bike ride? I have never understood the appeal of biking in your own living room.
    AIUI there's a sort of imitation sat nav on the front of the thing and you can pretend you're riding through Paris or Bangkok and waving at the girls.
    Or doing something insane, like cycling from Calais to Rome.

    Or something like that.
    People do things like download their fitbit steps into a spreadsheet which tells them how far they've walked to Mordor.
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,930
    slade said:

    Lateral Flow Tests

    The NHS App currently shows none available for delivery, however its worth checking on the app to see if your local chemist has some available for collection. Enter your post code - my regular and nearest one came up as having stock, fill in your details and get a collection code which you must show when picking them up. When I did I was asked if I wanted one or two packs.

    I went online and got a collection code about 11.30a.m. Just picked up 2 packs from the pharmacy - assistant said there had been a rush.
    Now done my DIY LFT - negative. Will try to report the result on-line.
This discussion has been closed.