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On the day of the 1st anniversary of the vaccine – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageOn the day of the 1st anniversary of the vaccine – politicalbetting.com

This should have been a very big day for BJ’s government because it is the first anniversary of the launch of the UK’s vaccine programme in which the country was a world leader. No doubt plans were in hand to maximise the positive impact for the government and get the subject over what is now being called #PartyGate.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • First... To leave the party?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    edited December 2021
    2nd like the anniversary of the vaccine this is +1
  • Somebody who worked at Downing Street (and occasionally was my host on my visits) as pointed out regardless of whether Boris Johnson was at the party or not, given the layout of Number 10, he would have been aware of a party of 30 + going on.

    Number 10 and Number 11 is not one of the great palaces of government and quite cramped in places.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    Am I right that the media are all ignoring the horrific story about what happened in Afghanistan, to spend their efforts instead on whether it was wrong for a group of people to have a drink after work, in the office, a year ago?

    Led by the likes of Kay Burley, who clearly knows a party when she sees one?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,380
    edited December 2021
    Johnson has a particular supercilious grin which says 'I'm a liar but I'm Master of the Universe so I can do what I like'. Yesterday we saw the same on Allegra Stratton.

    These things lodge in the memory much longer than whether there was an illicit Christmas Party.

    Probably longer than Barnard Castle

  • 5 live said this morning that from the first vaccine a year ago, 118 million have been administered to date

    An amazing number
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    Sandpit said:

    Am I right that the media are all ignoring the horrific story about what happened in Afghanistan, to spend their efforts instead on whether it was wrong for a group of people to have a drink after work, in the office, a year ago?

    Led by the likes of Kay Burley, who clearly knows a party when she sees one?

    Nick Ferrari was covering both this morning
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,126
    One year ago that Kay Burley was offering barely plausible excuses for staying out late.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55227470

    When was the last time a party in third place at a General Election, won a by-election?

    The Lib Dems scraped 10% in Dec 2021, Labour 22% and Tory 62%.

    https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3648/election/397

    If a Lib Dem was returned, it wouldn't surprise me if the Tories regained the seat at a General Election.
  • Roger said:

    Johnson has a particular supercilious grin which says 'I'm Master of the Universe so I can do what I like'. Yesterday we saw the same on Allegra Stratton.

    These things lodge in the memory much longer than whether there was an illicit Christmas Party.

    Yes. It's the grin that says "I went to a posh school and my mates from Oxford are all running the country and you plebs who are paying my salary can all do one." It's the face of pure, unadulterated entitlement. It's a grin that needs to be wiped off their faces, permanently.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    5 live said this morning that from the first vaccine a year ago, 118 million have been administered to date

    An amazing number

    And a success story that should be leading the news but isn't because Boris has completely F***ed things up by trying to cover up a works do...
  • I think I'm in the minority here, but I think Boris will apologise. Well, he'll try to give a weaselly non-apology in an attempt to deflate Starmer's balloon before PMQs. Whether that is sufficient for the public is a different question.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,706
    FPT

    You get to know a lot of parents of your kid's class- and year-mates whilst waiting for them outside school. There's one guy I know, who is jovial and friendly with a nice son. The business he works for did quite well over the early months of lockdown.

    Someone has been posting anti-vax and anti-climate change nonsense on a local forum. I thought I recognised the name, so I checked, and it is that parent.

    It's that moment you go from thinking someone is quite a nice guy, to thinking that he's a dangerous idiot.

    We had a supercilious guy on our local forum very condescendingly explaining to someone how the AstraZeneca vaccine was produced.

    Unfortunately, the woman he was mansplaining to happens to be one of the Oxford professors who actually developed the vaccine. As per https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/area/coronavirus-research/vaccine.

    Whoops.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    FPT

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Interesting how when rehearsing/joking about answers to xmas party Q, no-one in that briefing room suggested bare-faced lying - flatly deny it even happened - which is the line that No10 have ended up with ...
    https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1468492881233166337

    To some level today's focus on the party is job done because the other news stories are Afghanstan and Clause 9 of the immigration act - that allows anyone with any chance of dual nationality to lose their UK citizenship with little chance of appealing
    I’m a dual citizen (UK and EU). What do I have to do to lose my UK citizenship?
    One big issue is that we don't know and there is no need under the proposed law for the Home Office to give you the reasons.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Am I right that the media are all ignoring the horrific story about what happened in Afghanistan, to spend their efforts instead on whether it was wrong for a group of people to have a drink after work, in the office, a year ago?

    Led by the likes of Kay Burley, who clearly knows a party when she sees one?

    Yes, I half suspect Boris leaked the video as it was less embarrassing than the fact his PPS overrode the Defence and Foreign Office to get some dogs out for Carrie.
    A story which has legs. Would be interesting to know the etiquette about signing letters as a PPS - did she but PPS to BJ on other letters clearly about constituency business? Has anyone cooked up a connection between her constituency and Farthing anyway?
  • FPT

    Jonathan said:

    Good morning

    The video last night has made it impossible for Boris to do anything other than accept the criticism and apologise

    I suspect withdrawing from the media this morning is a pre cursor to a statement from Boris at the start of PMQs accepting it was inappropriate and offering an apology

    Anything less would be unacceptable

    I have considered this. If he tries to do mea maxima culpa the story just gets worse. Because it isn't as if he has just found out that the party happened. He knew it happened (because he was there wasn't he...) and lied about it for a week.

    So if he does apologise for the party the furore moves straight onto the week of blatant lies. Perhaps he will try and bluster through as he always does and then offer Stratton's job as a sacrifice. That won't work either...
    It will be a very interesting PMQs today
    Are you still batting for Boris? Only the other day you were singing his praises giving thanks he was in no10 right now.
    On this he has no option but to apologise
    Genuine question - has he ever really properly apologised for anything he's done?
    Let's see at 12 noon
    He could be there a while:
    Sorry for the party taking place with his team in direct contradiction of the rules
    Sorry for hosting a party in Downing Street (even if they laughingly try to claim he wasn't there, its his property
    Sorry for his team laughing about it
    Sorry for covering it up for a year
    Sorry for personally lying repeatedly about it and instructing cabinet colleagues to also lie repeatedly about it

    There is no chance he is going to apologise for everything. Nor does trying to apologise for a single and very narrow point and then batting the rest away going to cut it.

    I'm likely to be proven wrong in a few hours, but its a fun limb to go out on. I think he'll try and bluster his way through and point to all the crimes that Starmer and his team have committed.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021
    fpt

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The arguments for Philip's point of view are numerous, even if I would not express it the way he did.

    Lockdown related policies have not achieved their objectives and, frankly, were never going to. We are all going to get this virus, quite probably more than once. Omicron has ensured this.

    OTOH, the consequences of such policies on the young in particular are egregious. My son, to take an example, had his last 2 years of schooling disrupted and was left with "results" that will always have a serious question mark hanging over them for the rest of his life. The socialisation, education and psychological problems that Philip described will scar millions of kids for a very long time, possibly for life.

    Tens of thousands are going to die prematurely because their healthcare has been deferred and disrupted. This was inevitable but our policies have dragged this out interminably greatly increasing the damage.

    All this to "protect" us against a virus with a mortality rate of less than 1%, very heavily weighted towards the very old and the very sick. And it hasn't worked.

    This current generation and the next will pay a very heavy price for the largesse of furlough and lockdowns. They will have a lower standard of living, poorer services and poorer healthcare. The interests of the gerontic mass that so dominates our politics have, once again, trumped all. And it hasn't even worked.

    So we have a situation where the main consequences of this have been borne by the young to protect the old. Again. Which would have been annoying enough if it had worked. But it didn't.

    That's all well and good. Except I missed the part where the elderly are no longer seen as being equal members of society, and instead are just expendable.

    I mean, if that's how society sees them, then we can do lots of things to improve the lot of the young at the expense of the elderly. I'm sure films have been made about such societies.

    As someone who is older than me, I'm sure you are looking forward to a rich old age.
    They are and should be equal members of society but their interests cannot continue to trump all.
    Philip's (and your) argument is that they are not equal members of society: they are expendable. And it's not just them: it's anyone who Phillip thinks is 'vulnerable' or 'sick'.

    Lockdown was an evil. Letting people die from Covid was an evil. It is a case of weighing up these evils: and I'd argue letting people die in vast numbers just so Philip can have his 'freedom' is by far the biggest evil.
    No I don't think anyone is expendable. What I do think is that death is inevitable for everyone and destroying people's education and years of life chances is not a price worth paying to postpone infections.

    Quite frankly on a pure mathematical basis since the virus, even without vaccines, had a fatality rate of below 1% a year of lockdown destroys more lifetime than having 1% of people die, unless remaining life expectancy for the dead was 100 more years, but it wasn't.

    Destroying people's opportunities and education etc is a far bigger evil than some people dying from natural causes.
    "Destroys lifetime"

    It really doesn't. It changes the way you can spend your lifetime: that does not mean it has to be 'destroyed' - unless you let it.

    As I've consistently said, lockdowns are an evil. I don't want another lockdown at the moment (though that might change if the situation changes - and I hope it doesn't). But your argued approach is also an evil.

    It's a case of weighing up these evils.

    And saying Covid is 'some people dying from natural causes' is a bit blase. I might put it as: "Hundreds of thousands, or millions, of people dying from a largely avoidable cause."
    Even on the mighty PB we have had several hitherto seemingly robust posters (courageously imo) admit to mental health issues. This is for sensible, analytical, geeky types. To use the internet's second favourite phrase, will no one think of the children?

    How will they react to this unprecedented level of restrictions. We don't know but it seems that childrens' mental health is overall in a much worse place than it was.

    How about your children. I can imagine because you are a sensible, analytical type who talks through stuff they will take their lead from you and the harm will be minimised. But harm there will be. And think of the children of people who are not as you are about it all.

  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    Unpopular said:

    I think I'm in the minority here, but I think Boris will apologise. Well, he'll try to give a weaselly non-apology in an attempt to deflate Starmer's balloon before PMQs. Whether that is sufficient for the public is a different question.

    I think most people can spot a non-apology and, were it given, Starmer will have enough sense to pull the non-apology apart and ask for a proper one.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Am I right that the media are all ignoring the horrific story about what happened in Afghanistan, to spend their efforts instead on whether it was wrong for a group of people to have a drink after work, in the office, a year ago?

    Led by the likes of Kay Burley, who clearly knows a party when she sees one?

    Nick Ferrari was covering both this morning
    Still is - doing both equally. Half an hour of "incompetent twat government flies out animals but not people" followed by half an hour of "lying twat government rubs your face in it partying and laughing about the cover up"

    Its "choose and die" time for Tories. Pick whichever story you like, its the apocalypse.
  • Stocky said:

    LauraK on R4 - Cabinet conspicuous by their absence in the media this morning unwilling to defend Downing St - Health Secretary pulled out of R4 8.10 slot.

    If Johnson has lost the support of his cabinet he's done isn't he? Fingers crossed.
    Be fascinating to be a fly on the wall in Sunak's office this morning.
    Jim Hacker managed it. Why not Rishi?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021
    fpt
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    MaxPB said:

    One of the reasons I've reserved judgement over what comes next is this, if Omicron presents mild symptoms in people who have been vaccinated or previously had COVID the same as Beta but presents the same severity in those with no immunity from vaccines or prior infection then I think the UK is in the clear.

    But obviously, it depends on numbers as well as severity.

    Suppose the severity of Omicron is the same as Delta in every category. The NHS is not finding it easy to cope with Delta even now, with perhaps 3% of the population being infected per month.

    If Omicron has an R number of 2.5 (which is starting to look conservative by comparison with some of the numbers being suggested), if nothing is done to control it, it may well infect over half of the population in 3 or 4 months - just as the original strain would have done in the Spring of 2020. The rate of infection could peak at ten times what we are seeing now with Delta.

    It would be over pretty quickly though.
    Very much depends on what is currently the great unknown (and unknowable at the moment). What is the typical severity of symptoms and what percentage of people (regardless of vaccination) end up being hospitalised.

    If hospital numbers are high we may need to lock down because most people aren't going to get booster jabs in time.
    If the R is as high as suspected lockdown won't do it. We'd have to have a full shutdown of the economy like China. That's unlikely to get any support. Ultimately, Philip Thompson is right, people die. COVID isn't some special case disease that people shouldn't die of. The onus is on the individual to get vaccinated and boosted. If there's people too stupid to do that then it's their problem, not society's.
    We are not particularly worried about Covid. If the government said that masks are not mandatory anywhere then mask wearing would be around 10% and those because they thought it protected themselves not others. We all want to party/go to the footie/pub/club.

    We as a society are comfortable with the level of mortality that Covid brings. Otherwise we'd all stay in and unasked mask up. We don't*.

    So that leaves the NHS. Society says "we want to live with Covid" and hence it is beholden upon the government to ensure that the NHS can cope. It won't of course but it should.

    *and yes there are edge cases when someone has to go out to work and lives in a multi-generational household etc, etc. But measures can be found for those people.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757

    5 live said this morning that from the first vaccine a year ago, 118 million have been administered to date

    An amazing number

    Look! Squirrel.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 1,167
    I think a problem here is that staff will take their lead from the boss in terms of how they conduct themselves.

    For instance, it is very hard to believe anyone would have been joking around, at time like that, when Margaret Thatcher was installed in No 10, or even Theresa May or Gordon Brown.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Blackford calls for resignation

    The PM "must remove himself from office immediately" if allegations a Christmas party was held in Downing Street during lockdown are true, the SNP's Westminster leader has said.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-news-live-hotel-quarantine-breaches-human-rights-says-law-firm-as-south-african-president-says-omicron-is-dominating-in-most-provinces-12469075
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Am I right that the media are all ignoring the horrific story about what happened in Afghanistan, to spend their efforts instead on whether it was wrong for a group of people to have a drink after work, in the office, a year ago?

    Led by the likes of Kay Burley, who clearly knows a party when she sees one?

    Yes, I half suspect Boris leaked the video as it was less embarrassing than the fact his PPS overrode the Defence and Foreign Office to get some dogs out for Carrie.
    A story which has legs. Would be interesting to know the etiquette about signing letters as a PPS - did she but PPS to BJ on other letters clearly about constituency business? Has anyone cooked up a connection between her constituency and Farthing anyway?
    If you were a constituent you would have thought that there was more important things for her to deal with than dogs in Afghanstan.

    I would place decent money that she's gone come the next election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,333
    Sandpit said:

    Am I right that the media are all ignoring the horrific story about what happened in Afghanistan, to spend their efforts instead on whether it was wrong for a group of people to have a drink after work, in the office, a year ago?

    Led by the likes of Kay Burley, who clearly knows a party when she sees one?

    For today, yes.
    It's not about a party, though. It is about government believing itself above any rules, and the utter inability of our PM to be honest about anything.

    The Afghan story, quite rightly will not go away - and will be interpreted in the light of a number of previous dupes and apologists suddenly realising that their government is a parcel of liars and rogues.
  • eek said:

    FPT

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Interesting how when rehearsing/joking about answers to xmas party Q, no-one in that briefing room suggested bare-faced lying - flatly deny it even happened - which is the line that No10 have ended up with ...
    https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1468492881233166337

    To some level today's focus on the party is job done because the other news stories are Afghanstan and Clause 9 of the immigration act - that allows anyone with any chance of dual nationality to lose their UK citizenship with little chance of appealing
    I’m a dual citizen (UK and EU). What do I have to do to lose my UK citizenship?
    One big issue is that we don't know and there is no need under the proposed law for the Home Office to give you the reasons.
    So, Rebellious Jock will suffice. Hej då brittisk pass.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Am I right that the media are all ignoring the horrific story about what happened in Afghanistan, to spend their efforts instead on whether it was wrong for a group of people to have a drink after work, in the office, a year ago?

    Led by the likes of Kay Burley, who clearly knows a party when she sees one?

    Nick Ferrari was covering both this morning
    Still is - doing both equally. Half an hour of "incompetent twat government flies out animals but not people" followed by half an hour of "lying twat government rubs your face in it partying and laughing about the cover up"

    Its "choose and die" time for Tories. Pick whichever story you like, its the apocalypse.
    There was quite a convincing bloke on who said that the animals were in the hold and the people were in the seats so they were actually not not saving people by flying animals out.

    Although what happened/the details of the empty plane flying out save for its hold being full of animals I'm not sure.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,519
    edited December 2021

    Stocky said:

    LauraK on R4 - Cabinet conspicuous by their absence in the media this morning unwilling to defend Downing St - Health Secretary pulled out of R4 8.10 slot.

    If Johnson has lost the support of his cabinet he's done isn't he? Fingers crossed.
    Be fascinating to be a fly on the wall in Sunak's office this morning.
    Jim Hacker managed it. Why not Rishi?
    If Cabinet ministers are not appearing, who is actually Johnson's bedrock support at the moment ?

    There's obviously Allegra Stratton, and some of the other aides - not those left over from the Cummings era. He perhaps still has the loyalty of some of the new Red Wall intake. What or who is his support base in the Cabinet ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,333
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Am I right that the media are all ignoring the horrific story about what happened in Afghanistan, to spend their efforts instead on whether it was wrong for a group of people to have a drink after work, in the office, a year ago?

    Led by the likes of Kay Burley, who clearly knows a party when she sees one?

    Yes, I half suspect Boris leaked the video as it was less embarrassing than the fact his PPS overrode the Defence and Foreign Office to get some dogs out for Carrie.
    I did speculate about that yesterday, slightly tongue in cheek.
    It won't work.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572

    5 live said this morning that from the first vaccine a year ago, 118 million have been administered to date

    An amazing number

    In the UK, I assume. Even more amazing worldwide, but we should still be doing more.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    On the day of the 1st anniversary of the vaccine, the WHO says vaccination still protects from severe illness from Omicron too.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59573037

    So no more lockdowns
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,706
    Meanwhile Dom tweets that "#RegimeChange is coming"
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    Stocky said:

    LauraK on R4 - Cabinet conspicuous by their absence in the media this morning unwilling to defend Downing St - Health Secretary pulled out of R4 8.10 slot.

    If Johnson has lost the support of his cabinet he's done isn't he? Fingers crossed.
    Be fascinating to be a fly on the wall in Sunak's office this morning.
    Jim Hacker managed it. Why not Rishi?
    If Cabinet ministers are not appearing, who is actually Johnson's bedrock support at the moment ?

    There's obviously Allegra Stratton, and some of the other aides - not those left over from the Cummings era. What or who is his support base in the Cabinet ?
    Allegra who was sacked at Carrie's request and is in the frame for leaking that video?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    IshmaelZ said:

    Blackford calls for resignation

    The PM "must remove himself from office immediately" if allegations a Christmas party was held in Downing Street during lockdown are true, the SNP's Westminster leader has said.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-news-live-hotel-quarantine-breaches-human-rights-says-law-firm-as-south-african-president-says-omicron-is-dominating-in-most-provinces-12469075

    Who cares what Blackford thinks
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    HYUFD said:

    On the day of the 1st anniversary of the vaccine, the WHO says vaccination still protects from severe illness from Omicron too.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59573037

    So no more lockdowns

    It says should - not still. Exactly how bad are your reading comprehension skills?
  • Stocky said:

    LauraK on R4 - Cabinet conspicuous by their absence in the media this morning unwilling to defend Downing St - Health Secretary pulled out of R4 8.10 slot.

    If Johnson has lost the support of his cabinet he's done isn't he? Fingers crossed.
    Be fascinating to be a fly on the wall in Sunak's office this morning.
    Jim Hacker managed it. Why not Rishi?
    If Cabinet ministers are not appearing, who is actually Johnson's bedrock support at the moment ?

    There's obviously Allegra Stratton, and some of the other aides - not those left over from the Cummings era. He obviously has the loyalty of some of the new Red Wall intake. What or who is his support base in the Cabinet ?
    Michael Gove is very loyal.


    Titter.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021
    HYUFD said:

    On the day of the 1st anniversary of the vaccine, the WHO says vaccination still protects from severe illness from Omicron too.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59573037

    So no more lockdowns

    I think if Boris tried to stand up at the podium and announce another lockdown at least Steve Baker and likely another X hundred MPs would physically wrestle him to the ground and reverse the order. At best.
  • Meanwhile Dom tweets that "#RegimeChange is coming"

    Rats do abandon sinking ships.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349

    5 live said this morning that from the first vaccine a year ago, 118 million have been administered to date

    An amazing number

    In the UK, I assume. Even more amazing worldwide, but we should still be doing more.
    4.2B first dose, 3.3B second dose, 214M 3rd.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,706

    Michael Gove is very loyal.


    Titter.

    Yes, that too.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    LauraK on R4 - Cabinet conspicuous by their absence in the media this morning unwilling to defend Downing St - Health Secretary pulled out of R4 8.10 slot.

    If Johnson has lost the support of his cabinet he's done isn't he? Fingers crossed.
    Be fascinating to be a fly on the wall in Sunak's office this morning.
    Jim Hacker managed it. Why not Rishi?
    If Cabinet ministers are not appearing, who is actually Johnson's bedrock support at the moment ?

    There's obviously Allegra Stratton, and some of the other aides - not those left over from the Cummings era. What or who is his support base in the Cabinet ?
    Allegra who was sacked at Carrie's request and is in the frame for leaking that video?
    Wasn't the earlier story that Allegra was only brought in at Carrie's request? Part of the Downfall of Dom and all that?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,257



    I’m a dual citizen (UK and EU). What do I have to do to lose my UK citizenship?

    You do it online. I did it after I upgraded to a RoI passport. You get fucking stung for £370 though and then another £20 to have your biometric details deleted. I don't believe they actually do this but I paid anyway.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Am I right that the media are all ignoring the horrific story about what happened in Afghanistan, to spend their efforts instead on whether it was wrong for a group of people to have a drink after work, in the office, a year ago?

    Led by the likes of Kay Burley, who clearly knows a party when she sees one?

    Nick Ferrari was covering both this morning
    Still is - doing both equally. Half an hour of "incompetent twat government flies out animals but not people" followed by half an hour of "lying twat government rubs your face in it partying and laughing about the cover up"

    Its "choose and die" time for Tories. Pick whichever story you like, its the apocalypse.
    There was quite a convincing bloke on who said that the animals were in the hold and the people were in the seats so they were actually not not saving people by flying animals out.

    Although what happened/the details of the empty plane flying out save for its hold being full of animals I'm not sure.
    The pinch point wasn't space on aircraft, it was escorting people/dogs to airport and onto aircraft. farthing says the seats on the doggie aircraft were empty, the do gooders were on a RAF plane
  • IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Am I right that the media are all ignoring the horrific story about what happened in Afghanistan, to spend their efforts instead on whether it was wrong for a group of people to have a drink after work, in the office, a year ago?

    Led by the likes of Kay Burley, who clearly knows a party when she sees one?

    Yes, I half suspect Boris leaked the video as it was less embarrassing than the fact his PPS overrode the Defence and Foreign Office to get some dogs out for Carrie.
    A story which has legs. Would be interesting to know the etiquette about signing letters as a PPS - did she but PPS to BJ on other letters clearly about constituency business? Has anyone cooked up a connection between her constituency and Farthing anyway?
    Sandpit asked if this story was being ignored - no it isn't. Its a little less accessible than the PM's Fuck You Christmas party, but it is important. The embarrassment of our failed evacuation of Kabul, the absurdity of a planeload of animals with none of the people we had a Debt of Honour to remove, and supposedly the official explanation that the PM's PPS has the power to change the war objectives in a full evacuation of UK personnel. Its laughable bullshit, but number 10 thinks we are all so stupid that we will believe anything.

    All part of the same story. Arrogant. Corrupt. Self-Serving. Liars.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    LauraK on R4 - Cabinet conspicuous by their absence in the media this morning unwilling to defend Downing St - Health Secretary pulled out of R4 8.10 slot.

    If Johnson has lost the support of his cabinet he's done isn't he? Fingers crossed.
    Be fascinating to be a fly on the wall in Sunak's office this morning.
    Jim Hacker managed it. Why not Rishi?
    If Cabinet ministers are not appearing, who is actually Johnson's bedrock support at the moment ?

    There's obviously Allegra Stratton, and some of the other aides - not those left over from the Cummings era. What or who is his support base in the Cabinet ?
    Allegra who was sacked at Carrie's request and is in the frame for leaking that video?
    What is Allegra's relationship with Rishi (and we probably should be asking the question of other people in the No 10 media team).

    It will be interesting to see who appears at PMQs - I suspect the Tory benches will be rather empty.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,333
    Unpopular said:

    I think I'm in the minority here, but I think Boris will apologise. Well, he'll try to give a weaselly non-apology in an attempt to deflate Starmer's balloon before PMQs. Whether that is sufficient for the public is a different question.

    If so, it will be one of those subjunctive apologies -"if anything of this sort took place, then of course... "etc.
  • johntjohnt Posts: 86
    I must admit that I can no longer believe anyone can support what they are seeing in Downing Street. This is a real test for the Tory party. There was a time when there were plenty of decent people in the party who would have stood up to be counted. It is fair to say that over the Paterson affair some of those people again imposed themselves. But this is now a critical test, how long will ordinary Tory MPs put up with this endless drip feed of dishonesty and sleaze. Maybe they will finally realise that their jobs may actually be at risk.
  • HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Blackford calls for resignation

    The PM "must remove himself from office immediately" if allegations a Christmas party was held in Downing Street during lockdown are true, the SNP's Westminster leader has said.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-news-live-hotel-quarantine-breaches-human-rights-says-law-firm-as-south-african-president-says-omicron-is-dominating-in-most-provinces-12469075

    Who cares what Blackford thinks
    48% of Scottish voters, according to YouGov/The Times 18-22 Nov.

    And before you point out that that’s not a majority, remember that 80% of Scottish voters intend to vote for the non-Tory parties, according to the same survey.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021
    Betting post

    There is no such thing as a temporary Prime Minister. So which Tory MP will be appointed PM while a vote for Tory party leader is held or will the party think blow it and just ask Rishi to take the job?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    LauraK on R4 - Cabinet conspicuous by their absence in the media this morning unwilling to defend Downing St - Health Secretary pulled out of R4 8.10 slot.

    If Johnson has lost the support of his cabinet he's done isn't he? Fingers crossed.
    Be fascinating to be a fly on the wall in Sunak's office this morning.
    Jim Hacker managed it. Why not Rishi?
    If Cabinet ministers are not appearing, who is actually Johnson's bedrock support at the moment ?

    There's obviously Allegra Stratton, and some of the other aides - not those left over from the Cummings era. What or who is his support base in the Cabinet ?
    Allegra who was sacked at Carrie's request and is in the frame for leaking that video?
    Wasn't the earlier story that Allegra was only brought in at Carrie's request? Part of the Downfall of Dom and all that?
    That was Act 1. Carrie's allegiances are allegedly fickle
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    Pulpstar said:

    5 live said this morning that from the first vaccine a year ago, 118 million have been administered to date

    An amazing number

    In the UK, I assume. Even more amazing worldwide, but we should still be doing more.
    4.2B first dose, 3.3B second dose, 214M 3rd.
    That’s a seriously impressive number of vaccines.

    We really should be applauding the scientists and manufacturers loudly today.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    So it's up to the public, isn't it, whether Johnson keeps getting away with this shit. If polls say he's become a liability he'll be out, if not he's staying and leading into the election. Which got me thinking about the numbers. Of those that voted for him 2 years ago and gave him his big majority, what % need to now be saying "Not next time, no way" for him to be in trouble with the party? 20%? More?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    eek said:

    Betting post

    There is no such thing as a temporary Prime Minister. So which Tory MP will be appointed PM while a vote for Tory party leader is held or will the party think blow it and just ask Rishi to take the job?

    I think there is for betting purposes. CBA to look despite having money on it but I think caretaker PMs are excluded
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021
    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Am I right that the media are all ignoring the horrific story about what happened in Afghanistan, to spend their efforts instead on whether it was wrong for a group of people to have a drink after work, in the office, a year ago?

    Led by the likes of Kay Burley, who clearly knows a party when she sees one?

    Nick Ferrari was covering both this morning
    Still is - doing both equally. Half an hour of "incompetent twat government flies out animals but not people" followed by half an hour of "lying twat government rubs your face in it partying and laughing about the cover up"

    Its "choose and die" time for Tories. Pick whichever story you like, its the apocalypse.
    There was quite a convincing bloke on who said that the animals were in the hold and the people were in the seats so they were actually not not saving people by flying animals out.

    Although what happened/the details of the empty plane flying out save for its hold being full of animals I'm not sure.
    The pinch point wasn't space on aircraft, it was escorting people/dogs to airport and onto aircraft. farthing says the seats on the doggie aircraft were empty, the do gooders were on a RAF plane
    Ah I see tyvm.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    If they are going to keep this party story running, then a certain Mr Cummings will likely have a a good account of what did or didn’t happen…
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    5 live said this morning that from the first vaccine a year ago, 118 million have been administered to date

    An amazing number

    In the UK, I assume. Even more amazing worldwide, but we should still be doing more.
    4.2B first dose, 3.3B second dose, 214M 3rd.
    That’s a seriously impressive number of vaccines.

    We really should be applauding the scientists and manufacturers loudly today.
    So loudly, in fact, we can't hear the Afghan translators dying as a planeload of mangy pups roars into the sky.
    So loudly, in fact, we can't hear the bass thump and raucous drunken laughter behind the windows of No. 10.
  • HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I can't really see a good way out of this for the Tories.

    What a mess.

    Boris gets pushed out.
    And the Tories probably face a decade or more in opposition.

    Removing proven election winners rarely works. After forcing Thatcher out the Tories lost 3 out of 4 of the next general elections, after Blair went Labour has lost 4 General elections in a row.

    There is a reason non Tories want Boris out as he is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and also the leader with most appeal to the RedWall. Remove him and Starmer's job becomes easier
    I concur.

    Keep Boris. Please.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    LauraK on R4 - Cabinet conspicuous by their absence in the media this morning unwilling to defend Downing St - Health Secretary pulled out of R4 8.10 slot.

    If Johnson has lost the support of his cabinet he's done isn't he? Fingers crossed.
    Be fascinating to be a fly on the wall in Sunak's office this morning.
    Jim Hacker managed it. Why not Rishi?
    If Cabinet ministers are not appearing, who is actually Johnson's bedrock support at the moment ?

    There's obviously Allegra Stratton, and some of the other aides - not those left over from the Cummings era. What or who is his support base in the Cabinet ?
    Allegra who was sacked at Carrie's request and is in the frame for leaking that video?
    What is Allegra's relationship with Rishi (and we probably should be asking the question of other people in the No 10 media team).

    It will be interesting to see who appears at PMQs - I suspect the Tory benches will be rather empty.
    They are besties, her husband was his best man
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,257
    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    LauraK on R4 - Cabinet conspicuous by their absence in the media this morning unwilling to defend Downing St - Health Secretary pulled out of R4 8.10 slot.

    If Johnson has lost the support of his cabinet he's done isn't he? Fingers crossed.
    Be fascinating to be a fly on the wall in Sunak's office this morning.
    Jim Hacker managed it. Why not Rishi?
    If Cabinet ministers are not appearing, who is actually Johnson's bedrock support at the moment ?

    There's obviously Allegra Stratton, and some of the other aides - not those left over from the Cummings era. What or who is his support base in the Cabinet ?
    Allegra who was sacked at Carrie's request and is in the frame for leaking that video?
    What is Allegra's relationship with Rishi (and we probably should be asking the question of other people in the No 10 media team).

    It will be interesting to see who appears at PMQs - I suspect the Tory benches will be rather empty.
    Sunak will have bricked himself into one of his 15 wine cellars. He runs a fucking mile at the first whiff of grapeshot.
  • Pulpstar said:

    5 live said this morning that from the first vaccine a year ago, 118 million have been administered to date

    An amazing number

    In the UK, I assume. Even more amazing worldwide, but we should still be doing more.
    4.2B first dose, 3.3B second dose, 214M 3rd.
    Strange to remember that nine months ago there was still uncertainty how far the vaccine production would stretch. And two years ago, this was still a minor story on the inside pages.

    And now, half the world is jabbed, and counting. Thank goodness that this happened now and not a decade or two ago.

    Yay for science and globalised capitalism.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 317
    edited December 2021
    Olaf Scholz has been elected Chancellor with 395/707 votes in the Bundestag.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    LauraK on R4 - Cabinet conspicuous by their absence in the media this morning unwilling to defend Downing St - Health Secretary pulled out of R4 8.10 slot.

    If Johnson has lost the support of his cabinet he's done isn't he? Fingers crossed.
    Be fascinating to be a fly on the wall in Sunak's office this morning.
    Jim Hacker managed it. Why not Rishi?
    If Cabinet ministers are not appearing, who is actually Johnson's bedrock support at the moment ?

    There's obviously Allegra Stratton, and some of the other aides - not those left over from the Cummings era. What or who is his support base in the Cabinet ?
    Allegra who was sacked at Carrie's request and is in the frame for leaking that video?
    What is Allegra's relationship with Rishi (and we probably should be asking the question of other people in the No 10 media team).

    It will be interesting to see who appears at PMQs - I suspect the Tory benches will be rather empty.
    Sunak will have bricked himself into one of his 15 wine cellars. He runs a fucking mile at the first whiff of grapeshot.
    Who is the Napoleon firing the grapeshot here? Starmer?
  • eek said:

    Betting post

    There is no such thing as a temporary Prime Minister. So which Tory MP will be appointed PM while a vote for Tory party leader is held or will the party think blow it and just ask Rishi to take the job?

    Rishi is a shoo in.

    Personally, I’d go for Liz Truss, but I just can’t see the Tories going for her in their current swivel-eyed iteration.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    LauraK on R4 - Cabinet conspicuous by their absence in the media this morning unwilling to defend Downing St - Health Secretary pulled out of R4 8.10 slot.

    If Johnson has lost the support of his cabinet he's done isn't he? Fingers crossed.
    Be fascinating to be a fly on the wall in Sunak's office this morning.
    Jim Hacker managed it. Why not Rishi?
    If Cabinet ministers are not appearing, who is actually Johnson's bedrock support at the moment ?

    There's obviously Allegra Stratton, and some of the other aides - not those left over from the Cummings era. What or who is his support base in the Cabinet ?
    Allegra who was sacked at Carrie's request and is in the frame for leaking that video?
    What is Allegra's relationship with Rishi (and we probably should be asking the question of other people in the No 10 media team).

    It will be interesting to see who appears at PMQs - I suspect the Tory benches will be rather empty.
    Sunak will have bricked himself into one of his 15 wine cellars. He runs a fucking mile at the first whiff of grapeshot.
    Or, it will be like the last 20 minutes of The Godfather
  • Nigelb said:

    Unpopular said:

    I think I'm in the minority here, but I think Boris will apologise. Well, he'll try to give a weaselly non-apology in an attempt to deflate Starmer's balloon before PMQs. Whether that is sufficient for the public is a different question.

    If so, it will be one of those subjunctive apologies -"if anything of this sort took place, then of course... "etc.
    I think that's spot on. Starmer needs to be ready, I think. PMQs looks like an open goal, but it isn't quite.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    Betting post

    There is no such thing as a temporary Prime Minister. So which Tory MP will be appointed PM while a vote for Tory party leader is held or will the party think blow it and just ask Rishi to take the job?

    I think there is for betting purposes. CBA to look despite having money on it but I think caretaker PMs are excluded
    Betfair

    This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

    As I said there is no such thing as a temporary or caretaker PM - and I now suspect if Boris goes he won't be sitting in No 10 for 3 months while a successor is selected via a vote.
  • kinabalu said:

    So it's up to the public, isn't it, whether Johnson keeps getting away with this shit. If polls say he's become a liability he'll be out, if not he's staying and leading into the election. Which got me thinking about the numbers. Of those that voted for him 2 years ago and gave him his big majority, what % need to now be saying "Not next time, no way" for him to be in trouble with the party? 20%? More?

    If it’s up to the public, he’s staying.

    If they ignore his previous 1693 porkies, they’re gonna ignore his 1694th too.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021
    Unpopular said:

    Nigelb said:

    Unpopular said:

    I think I'm in the minority here, but I think Boris will apologise. Well, he'll try to give a weaselly non-apology in an attempt to deflate Starmer's balloon before PMQs. Whether that is sufficient for the public is a different question.

    If so, it will be one of those subjunctive apologies -"if anything of this sort took place, then of course... "etc.
    I think that's spot on. Starmer needs to be ready, I think. PMQs looks like an open goal, but it isn't quite.
    There is a simple response. I asked this question last week, how on earth don't you know a week later. Surely the video we all say last night gave clues as to who to ask.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    eek said:

    Unpopular said:

    I think I'm in the minority here, but I think Boris will apologise. Well, he'll try to give a weaselly non-apology in an attempt to deflate Starmer's balloon before PMQs. Whether that is sufficient for the public is a different question.

    I think most people can spot a non-apology and, were it given, Starmer will have enough sense to pull the non-apology apart and ask for a proper one.
    What I hope we don't get is one of those ridiculous "inquiries by the Cabinet Secretary" like for the wallpaper. It's a simple matter, as that was, and all it takes to clear it up is for Boris Johnson to tell the simple truth. There's no need whatsoever for any resource other than his mouth to be utilized.
  • Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The Saj has reportedly withdrawn from a round of broadcast interviews this morning.

    Can’t blame him.

    Palace coup?

    I remain of the view that this "party" is an absolutely trivial affair. The lying, on the other hand....
    David, I have to ask how you manage to have your sound legal mind clouded like this. An "absolutely trivial affair" - people have had £10k fines handed out for the exact same. My mate gave birth alone and in pain because the hospital refused to allow her husband in. Following the rules. Others had loved ones die, alone, because of the rules. The Queen, sat by herself at the DofE's funeral.

    This is as far from trivial as it gets. A massive FUCK YOU to the entire country.

    Why are you still providing them succour? I'm not saying you should vote against them, just that your party used to have standards and it might be good to see them return. Get this lying idiot out and you can win the next election. Keep him and you're doomed.
    What we are talking about is a few people who have been working together all day and for many days having a drink in their place of work after work. I frankly don't know if this contradicted the rules in force in London at the time. Maybe it did, maybe it didn't. It is very difficult to see how the "party" was any more of a risk to anyone than the work that preceded it.

    But the stupid lies denying it happened when it did is a repeat offence and has severely damaged Boris, possibly terminally this time.
    David, it was in *direct* contradiction of the Tier 3 rules. As confirmed by the government itself on Twitter. It isn't about "is it a risk". Its about "you can't do it but we can". The party and the lies are the same thing - dripping arrogance that it doesn't apply to them.

    And you're still providing them succour.
    Such a contrast with Scotland, where the equivalent excitement in the halls of power is Ms Sturgeon curling up on the sofa with the latest Booker winner.
    No no, if you recall Sturgeon went to a funeral and was snapped talking to a couple of pensioners more than 2 metres away. Took her mark off because they couldn't hear her. Tories and especially Scottish Tories went mental, tweeting on party day about Sturgeon's outrageous behaviour.
    Was that actually the same day as the party?! Amazing coincidence if so.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664
    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    Betting post

    There is no such thing as a temporary Prime Minister. So which Tory MP will be appointed PM while a vote for Tory party leader is held or will the party think blow it and just ask Rishi to take the job?

    I think there is for betting purposes. CBA to look despite having money on it but I think caretaker PMs are excluded
    Betfair

    This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

    As I said there is no such thing as a temporary or caretaker PM - and I now suspect if Boris goes he won't be sitting in No 10 for 3 months while a successor is selected via a vote.
    He'll be PM until a new leader is chosen under the CP rules. If he flounces off before such election he is still PM in my understanding. What happens in the event of death though?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    eek said:

    Betting post

    There is no such thing as a temporary Prime Minister. So which Tory MP will be appointed PM while a vote for Tory party leader is held or will the party think blow it and just ask Rishi to take the job?

    If we get an immediate resignation, there might be an interim PM, to hold fort for a few months and with no ambition to be in the contest. Possibly a Geoffrey Cox, Mark Spencer - or even maybe Gove.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    kinabalu said:

    So it's up to the public, isn't it, whether Johnson keeps getting away with this shit. If polls say he's become a liability he'll be out, if not he's staying and leading into the election. Which got me thinking about the numbers. Of those that voted for him 2 years ago and gave him his big majority, what % need to now be saying "Not next time, no way" for him to be in trouble with the party? 20%? More?

    Here's a danger for the tories: the red wall voted for good old Boris, not for the tories. If he gets pushed out, they won't just be less keen, or neutral, about his successor. They'll think ooh, some entitled little toff from Winchester thinks he knows better than good old salt of the earth Boris and is overriding therwilloftherpeople about who should be PM? Backlash rather than neutrality.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    Farooq said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    5 live said this morning that from the first vaccine a year ago, 118 million have been administered to date

    An amazing number

    In the UK, I assume. Even more amazing worldwide, but we should still be doing more.
    4.2B first dose, 3.3B second dose, 214M 3rd.
    That’s a seriously impressive number of vaccines.

    We really should be applauding the scientists and manufacturers loudly today.
    So loudly, in fact, we can't hear the Afghan translators dying as a planeload of mangy pups roars into the sky.
    So loudly, in fact, we can't hear the bass thump and raucous drunken laughter behind the windows of No. 10.
    The problem is, these are different issues. The vaccine development and roll-out is an example of where the government could plan ahead, schedule, prompt, and get things done. It has been amazing, and despite some minor missteps, the government could be congratulated.

    The fall of Kabul was an issue that suddenly developed. The government had to react quickly, with little planning, and virtually no time, against a hostile enemy. They got some of it right (they got a lot of people out), but could have done much better.

    The Number 10 party is an utter lack of control from the top.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    This invite circulated by Team Raab has raised some eyebrows this morning on MPs WhatsApps groups.. Read the room etc… https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1468515071739535360/photo/1
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 1,167
    johnt said:

    I must admit that I can no longer believe anyone can support what they are seeing in Downing Street. This is a real test for the Tory party. There was a time when there were plenty of decent people in the party who would have stood up to be counted. It is fair to say that over the Paterson affair some of those people again imposed themselves. But this is now a critical test, how long will ordinary Tory MPs put up with this endless drip feed of dishonesty and sleaze. Maybe they will finally realise that their jobs may actually be at risk.

    I'd imagine that they'll stagger on to Xmas and New Year, and then test the weather after that. Wagons will circle.

    All the same, this will surely stick, and you get the impression that a clear break may be needed. But time will tell.

    The North Shropshire Tory candidate must feel like hibernating for the next ten days.
  • eek said:

    Betting post

    There is no such thing as a temporary Prime Minister. So which Tory MP will be appointed PM while a vote for Tory party leader is held or will the party think blow it and just ask Rishi to take the job?

    Rishi is a shoo in.

    Personally, I’d go for Liz Truss, but I just can’t see the Tories going for her in their current swivel-eyed iteration.
    Truss is doing noticeably better with the ConHome panel- perhaps because she hasn't had to do anything unpopular like increase taxes.

    Sunak's problem is that his current window of opportunity is closing quite quickly.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664

    eek said:

    Betting post

    There is no such thing as a temporary Prime Minister. So which Tory MP will be appointed PM while a vote for Tory party leader is held or will the party think blow it and just ask Rishi to take the job?

    Rishi is a shoo in.

    Personally, I’d go for Liz Truss, but I just can’t see the Tories going for her in their current swivel-eyed iteration.
    Why do you think Sunak is more swivel-eyed than Truss? I thought you would say the opposite to be honest.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Senior Tory MP this morning - ‘Every lie just compounds the problem. But lying eventually catches people out. Another awful mess created out of Downing St. Question now in tea room is Boris reaching a tipping point - where he is becoming a liability and no longer an asset?’
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1468514849521025026
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    What should worry Boris Johnson even more than how to get out of the No10 party hole he has dug is the mood among Tory backbenchers, which is darkening rapidly. One 2019 intake agitator tells me it is "yet another easily avoided shitshow". PM's personal authority again at stake.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1468515948579676163
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Tory MPs very pessimistic this morning about the effect of #partygate on Shropshire North by-election next Thurs.

    One says alleged No 10 party was already coming up on doorstep in past week before leaked video, but now reckons it's likely to "kill off" Tory chances of success.

    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1468516204482551814
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Cabinet ministers refusing to carry the can for No 10 party:

    - Javid lined up for morning broadcast round but pulled out
    - Raab and Eustice had events and broadcast clips today cancelled

    Vaccines minister Maggie Throup also meant to be doing a regional round - won’t anymore.

    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1468513888606081025
  • IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    So it's up to the public, isn't it, whether Johnson keeps getting away with this shit. If polls say he's become a liability he'll be out, if not he's staying and leading into the election. Which got me thinking about the numbers. Of those that voted for him 2 years ago and gave him his big majority, what % need to now be saying "Not next time, no way" for him to be in trouble with the party? 20%? More?

    Here's a danger for the tories: the red wall voted for good old Boris, not for the tories. If he gets pushed out, they won't just be less keen, or neutral, about his successor. They'll think ooh, some entitled little toff from Winchester thinks he knows better than good old salt of the earth Boris and is overriding therwilloftherpeople about who should be PM? Backlash rather than neutrality.
    This is why the Tories are stuck with Johnson. *Unless* the polling in the Midlands and North collapses.

    I note that the Conservative VI is down to a worrying 31% in the North West, and in Yorkshire/Humber; and just 37% and 38% in the West and East Midlands. How far do those numbers need to drop before Johnson is history?

    (Redfield & Wilton Strategies, 6 Dec)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    So it's up to the public, isn't it, whether Johnson keeps getting away with this shit. If polls say he's become a liability he'll be out, if not he's staying and leading into the election. Which got me thinking about the numbers. Of those that voted for him 2 years ago and gave him his big majority, what % need to now be saying "Not next time, no way" for him to be in trouble with the party? 20%? More?

    Here's a danger for the tories: the red wall voted for good old Boris, not for the tories. If he gets pushed out, they won't just be less keen, or neutral, about his successor. They'll think ooh, some entitled little toff from Winchester thinks he knows better than good old salt of the earth Boris and is overriding therwilloftherpeople about who should be PM? Backlash rather than neutrality.
    Yes, I think that's right and it's why he'll be surviving.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Interesting how when rehearsing/joking about answers to xmas party Q, no-one in that briefing room suggested bare-faced lying - flatly deny it even happened - which is the line that No10 have ended up with ...
    https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1468492881233166337

    To some level today's focus on the party is job done because the other news stories are Afghanstan and Clause 9 of the immigration act - that allows anyone with any chance of dual nationality to lose their UK citizenship with little chance of appealing
    I’m a dual citizen (UK and EU). What do I have to do to lose my UK citizenship?
    Vote SNP?

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Lot of anger at Boris this morning. Tory MPs venting. Will be lots of talk about letters. But nothing will happen until we see clear evidence the voters are giving up on him. At the end of the day that's all the Tory party cares about.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1468516970534428674
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    One for @Foxy

    NP Amms
    @thatgirl409
    ·
    5h
    I'm treating an ICU nurse manager for depression. (Many, tbh) Today she told me that every new grad nurse that has started this year has left the profession within 3 months.

    Not the job.

    The actual profession.

    Sit with that a minute
  • Charles said:



    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Interesting how when rehearsing/joking about answers to xmas party Q, no-one in that briefing room suggested bare-faced lying - flatly deny it even happened - which is the line that No10 have ended up with ...
    https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1468492881233166337

    To some level today's focus on the party is job done because the other news stories are Afghanstan and Clause 9 of the immigration act - that allows anyone with any chance of dual nationality to lose their UK citizenship with little chance of appealing
    I’m a dual citizen (UK and EU). What do I have to do to lose my UK citizenship?
    Vote SNP?

    Correct answer!

    Well done Charles! I’m amazed more weren’t quicker on the buzzer.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612
    edited December 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    Senior Tory MP this morning - ‘Every lie just compounds the problem. But lying eventually catches people out. Another awful mess created out of Downing St. Question now in tea room is Boris reaching a tipping point - where he is becoming a liability and no longer an asset?’
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1468514849521025026

    How will Boris approach it today? Is his only course the 'independent enquiry by civil servant' route, or does he have another?

    Could a road be developing where only the Tories could win an election, but their chances of doing so depends on going outside the current gang for a leader; which would place Jeremy Hunt near the top. He is the only Tory anywhere in the betting who doesn't have his hands in the gore of Boris's government.

    FWIW I think he is by some way the most credible next leader/next PM apart from SKS.

    Also worth noting is the tone of the BBC R4 Today coverage - with no attempt to say anything other than the government/10 Downing St/Boris has profoundly misled or worse. It feels like a tipping point.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,849
    edited December 2021
    eek said:

    One for @Foxy

    NP Amms
    @thatgirl409
    ·
    5h
    I'm treating an ICU nurse manager for depression. (Many, tbh) Today she told me that every new grad nurse that has started this year has left the profession within 3 months.

    Not the job.

    The actual profession.

    Sit with that a minute

    That’s what I was talking with Foxy about a couple of days ago.

    They are going to have to educate and recruit like madmen to just stand still. Shame all those EU nurses aren’t allowed to apply…
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,656
    algarkirk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Senior Tory MP this morning - ‘Every lie just compounds the problem. But lying eventually catches people out. Another awful mess created out of Downing St. Question now in tea room is Boris reaching a tipping point - where he is becoming a liability and no longer an asset?’
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1468514849521025026

    How will Boris approach it today? Is his only course the 'independent enquiry by civil servant' route, or does he have another?

    Could a road be developing where only the Tories could win an election, but their chances of doing so depends on going outside the current gang for a leader; which would place Jeremy Hunt near the top. He is the only Tory anywhere in the betting who doesn't have his hands in the gore of Boris's government.

    FWIW I think he is by some way the most credible next leader/next PM apart from SKS.

    Hunts been quietly effective from the backbenches - sensible, as I think next leader needs to be seen as distinct from current cabinet
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,913
    eek said:

    One for @Foxy

    NP Amms
    @thatgirl409
    ·
    5h
    I'm treating an ICU nurse manager for depression. (Many, tbh) Today she told me that every new grad nurse that has started this year has left the profession within 3 months.

    Not the job.

    The actual profession.

    Sit with that a minute

    Still relevant perhaps, but you do know she is in Texas?

    https://twitter.com/thatgirl409?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
    https://www.etsy.com/shop/TheCraftyRNBoutique
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    Reports that Raab and Eustice also had planned events with press being present later. Both pulled.

    Entire government hiding in a big refrigerator.


    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1468518787502776326
    https://twitter.com/tonyroe/status/1468484628000514048
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    Scott_xP said:

    What should worry Boris Johnson even more than how to get out of the No10 party hole he has dug is the mood among Tory backbenchers, which is darkening rapidly. One 2019 intake agitator tells me it is "yet another easily avoided shitshow". PM's personal authority again at stake.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1468515948579676163

    Boris has to buck up and by god this time we mean it!
    Ok, we said the same thing in November. And October. And September before that. And through the summer too, and before!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    algarkirk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Senior Tory MP this morning - ‘Every lie just compounds the problem. But lying eventually catches people out. Another awful mess created out of Downing St. Question now in tea room is Boris reaching a tipping point - where he is becoming a liability and no longer an asset?’
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1468514849521025026

    How will Boris approach it today? Is his only course the 'independent enquiry by civil servant' route, or does he have another?

    Could a road be developing where only the Tories could win an election, but their chances of doing so depends on going outside the current gang for a leader; which would place Jeremy Hunt near the top. He is the only Tory anywhere in the betting who doesn't have his hands in the gore of Boris's government.

    FWIW I think he is by some way the most credible next leader/next PM apart from SKS.

    Also worth noting is the tone of the BBC R4 Today coverage - with no attempt to say anything other than the government/10 Downing St/Boris has profoundly misled or worse. It feels like a tipping point.

    Would Hunt have won the Redwall in 2019? Probably not. So we would be back to 2017 almost certainly and hung parliament with him or any other Tory leader.

    The only way to keep a Tory majority is the Redwall and the only Tory proven to have won there is Boris
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    "half think this will blow over, half are fucking apoplectic"...is how one MP I've just spoken to described the mood in the Tory party this morning over the "Christmas party".
    https://twitter.com/Kate_M_Proctor/status/1468513476461174784
  • eek said:

    One for @Foxy

    NP Amms
    @thatgirl409
    ·
    5h
    I'm treating an ICU nurse manager for depression. (Many, tbh) Today she told me that every new grad nurse that has started this year has left the profession within 3 months.

    Not the job.

    The actual profession.

    Sit with that a minute

    That’s what I was talking with Foxy about a couple of days ago.

    They are going to have to educate and recruit like madmen to just stand still. Shame all those EU nurses aren’t allowed to apply…
    Given that hospital numbers are, have been and will continue to be far worse in the EU than in the UK why do you think EU nurses aren't being burnt out at least as fast as UK nurses ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    This is much much more than party, a lie and a big old laugh. It matters when a Prime Minister cannot command his cabinet, cannot have the confidence of his MPs and cannot compel or be trusted by the public. It is dangerous and wrong.
    https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1468519785281781763
    https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1468518427421724676
  • Scott_xP said:

    Reports that Raab and Eustice also had planned events with press being present later. Both pulled.

    Entire government hiding in a big refrigerator.


    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1468518787502776326
    https://twitter.com/tonyroe/status/1468484628000514048

    Presumably the government is gathering to determine what is the appropriate line to take?

    Rather than (as has often been pointed out before) sending someone out on a press round with a line to take only for the rug to be pulled out from them when that line changes two hours later.

    They have until Midday to come up with an answer. It seems to me an apology would be best.
This discussion has been closed.