LD 11/10 in NS now. Doesn't look value, but in a couple of hours it might retrospectively do
Looks like massive value to me.
They should be heavy odds-on favourites. I don't see any possible way that the Tories win this seat in a mid-term by-election mired in scandal.
I wouldn't turn out to vote for this shower of shite. Who would?
Well there was one guy on R5 this morning who called in to opine that it was all just Labour point scoring, and all is fine. So there's that.
HYUFD?
Or are there two people who think like that?
Boris making the best of a very bad situation here now with the apology and investigation, but the whole situation is shambolic.
Still, when in a hole, stop digging. At least he's not made the situation worse, but it is a shambles.
Indeed, I wasn't expecting an apology! Sack Stratton and that'll be an end to it all.
Johnson can reward himself with and hour or two of campaign dressing up for nipping that problem in the bud.
Indeed, provided there is no evidence Boris was there he can sack Stratton from her COP26 spokesperson role and discipline the attendees and the news cycle will move on
Perhaps I am misunderstanding this but I thought this “impromptu gathering” was at the PM’s house!!
How to interpret Sunak’s body language and face? Shame because he was involved? Or shame that he’s the next most senior member of this government?
If the latter, then i think bojo could be done by next weekend with a coronation given the state of play on covid. If the former, they’ll all go down together on the same sinking ship.
They can only get away with a coronation if there is only one candidate. Possible, but I doubt it.
It would be self indulgent to have a contest during a period of crisis with covid restrictions. But equally if restrictions are needed, it’s a Dave speech of “that prime minister cannot be me”. Sunak Pm by Xmas looks a decent shot to me.
Boris toppled by Sunak who then imposes another lockdown would be a Tice and RefUK wet dream
Isn't Sunak on the anti-lockdown end of the spectrum? Mainly because he's paying for it all.
I can't really see a good way out of this for the Tories.
What a mess.
Boris gets pushed out.
And the Tories probably face a decade or more in opposition.
Removing proven election winners rarely works. After forcing Thatcher out the Tories lost 3 out of 4 of the next general elections, after Blair went Labour has lost 4 General elections in a row.
There is a reason non Tories want Boris out as he is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and also the leader with most appeal to the RedWall. Remove him and Starmer's job becomes easier
I concur.
Keep Boris. Please.
HYUFD as tone death as ever is see.
HYUFD - I’ve voted conservative. Consistently. Not anymore.
And there’s plenty more who’ll do the same until Bojo is gone. It was funny when he was mayor and plummeting down zip wires. It stopped being funny when he became prime minister
Do you live in a RedWall seat or seat in the top 100 Labour targets or a seat in the top 50 LD targets? If not then your opinion does not really matter under FPTP, your seat will stay Tory or Labour anyway however you vote
I live in a Red Wall seat. 3 Cyclefree family votes.
I look forward to my opinion now mattering to the Tory party.
Did you vote Tory in 2019? No.
Your opinion only matters if you not only live in those seats but voted for the Tory MP in 2019 too
Copeland was a Labour seat for very many years. How do you think it became Tory? Because the Tory candidate took the trouble to listen to the opinions of people who had not voted Tory before.
How do you think she increased her majority at the two subsequent General Elections? By getting the votes of people who had not previously voted Tory.
I know you will find this hard to understand. But try. Just for once.
Did you vote for her in 2019 when it was comfortably Tory held? No. So you are not a swing voter there and your voting intention is not relevant
How to interpret Sunak’s body language and face? Shame because he was involved? Or shame that he’s the next most senior member of this government?
If the latter, then i think bojo could be done by next weekend with a coronation given the state of play on covid. If the former, they’ll all go down together on the same sinking ship.
They can only get away with a coronation if there is only one candidate. Possible, but I doubt it.
It would be self indulgent to have a contest during a period of crisis with covid restrictions. But equally if restrictions are needed, it’s a Dave speech of “that prime minister cannot be me”. Sunak Pm by Xmas looks a decent shot to me.
Boris toppled by Sunak who then imposes another lockdown would be a Tice and RefUK wet dream
Sunak wouldn't do that. He was less in favour than Johnson was.
The one positive for Johnson is that he wasn't at the party.
As i said below, i bet he encouraged it and that is why got in this mess. If it was just some aids having a knees up and he genuinely didn't know, he could have sacked straight away.
LD 11/10 in NS now. Doesn't look value, but in a couple of hours it might retrospectively do
Looks like massive value to me.
They should be heavy odds-on favourites. I don't see any possible way that the Tories win this seat in a mid-term by-election mired in scandal.
I wouldn't turn out to vote for this shower of shite. Who would?
Well there was one guy on R5 this morning who called in to opine that it was all just Labour point scoring, and all is fine. So there's that.
Oh? What does HYUFD sound like? Cockney geezer or the softer rural Essex burr?
Neither, I grew up in Tunbridge Wells
Ah, Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells?
(And, in all fairness on my original comment, I don't think even you are defending Johnson here - maybe accepting his denial, but not defending the party)
I say again: at 12:19:50 or thereabouts Sunak nods approvingly 3 or 4 times to Blackford saying tories must decide whether bj man to lead these islands. Extraordinary.
Yes. Sunak is staring at the floor. Then looks up at the press gallery. Then nods. Tt was a slow contemplative nod that they must decide, not a supportive rapid "yes he is the right man" nod.
What's even more stupid is that today we actually had pretty good information on the level of immunity escape that Omicron has, it's much better than was initially feared with two and three doses of vaccine or natural immunity providing a pretty big shield against severe disease. I simply don't see what Plan B achieves in a largely vaccinated or naturally immune population.
Because very high transmission and not as high health impacts still creates a tidal wave of people sick and in hospital and dying. The scenario seems to be that fewer people will get really sick from Omicron than Delta, but if as transmittable as suggested there will be a lot of them.
But plan B isn't going to prevent that? We can see across the whole of Europe that plan b measures are of low value. France just clicked in 58k cases despite all having all of this in place, Germany has been clocking in 70k+ per day for a while despite tougher than plan B. The Netherlands is in pretty much lockdown and getting our equivalent of 80k cases per day.
You're aiming a hose pipe at a forest fire and expecting it to make a difference, it won't. If anything you're falling for their bullshit lies that Plan B will miraculously make everything go away. It won't. All it means is we're all living in a police state where the government has the ability to exclude people from normal life if they feel like it.
The view from the health experts and NHS managers is that it will help. Who am I to tell them they are wrong? The difference between us and the countries you mention is that because they kept restrictions on things like masks, they were able to keep case numbers very low. We did not and hence suffered 40k new cases a day month after month which put the service under such massive prolonged pressure.
And yet now the Netherlands has got more people in hospital than their first wave peak, Germany has got more in the ICU than their second wave peak, France is heading in the same direction. All that's different about what they did is they will end up with the same number of people hospitalised, except in a much shorter timeframe. However you slice this, everyone will get COVID and for unvaccinated people ~10% will end up in hospital for vaccinated people about ~0.5%, most countries are trending towards 70-75% people vaccinated, which means there's a lot of people who are potentially going to enter the funnel and end up in hospital. That is going to happen today, tomorrow or three months from now because COVID isn't going to go away.
That's the grim reality of COVID, we're all going to get it multiple times and people are going to die from it every year, it is the new influenza and will take the lives of the vulnerable every year just as the flu does. That's the reality, whether the NHS managers want to admit it or whether they think they can eliminate death is simply irrelevant. Chris Whitty has said multiple times that everyone in the country is going to get COVID, I sat around a table of pharma and academic experts who all said the same thing, there is no escaping COVID, it's coming for all of us and sadly for some older and more vulnerable people it is going to kill them, even with vaccines just as the flu does.
Since you mention Germany. It's far from clear what you say is true. Show me your workings.
On UK "Freedom Day" Germany had fewer than 2% of the daily cases that than the UK had. If Germany had had a Freedom Day at that time it would have taken weeks to reach similar case levels. Maybe all that would have happened is that the winter wave here would have started from a much higher base, and right now we would be in a proper lockdown, rather than a partial lockdown that only applies to unvaccinated adults.
Also on Freedom Day the UK had 87% of the adult population with at least one vaccine dose. In Germany it was 72%. If Germany waited until 87% of the adult population had a vaccine dose, we'd still be waiting now. The problem is the failure to vaccinate people, not making people put on a mask when shopping during the summer.
OK the government could have encouraged infections to spread during August-October, maybe it would have been a good idea. (Although the restrictions that were in place were put there by the Bundesländer, and generally amounted to wearing masks in shops, and barely enforced 3G rules for some venues. Plus of course test and trace and self-isolation, which I believe the UK also continued with). We would have had maybe 10% fewer people with no immunity from prior infection or vaccination. A small plus, but we would have gone into the very rapid increase of recent weeks from a much higher starting point. So I'm not at all sure we would be better off.
Professor Neil Ferguson says Cop could have been an omicron super spreading event. Points out that rates are highest in London (“to be expected”) and Scotland (where Cop was hosted) #today 7:22 am · 8 Dec 2021·Twitter for iPhone"
I wonder which journalists were at this party, squeaky bum time for them too....
The Sun had a big old knees up too apparently, which is why they're leading on the weather. The Telegraph is part of the same incestuous cabal that includes the speccie and so forth, all besties with No 10 I think.
You can probably get good odds that almost everyone who did have to work in an office last December, had some sort of deal to finish an hour or two early one day, and order some wine and nibbles.
The problem is, that nuance is difficult, and the shouts of “Christmas Party” are drowning out everything else.
It may, of course, be the case that there were loads of extra guests invited, dozens of bottles of champagne, a few grams of Colombian marching powder, and they all staggered out of of the door well past midnight.
Caught the end of PMQs, have to say Boris looked pretty bad repeating the same line about ‘playing politics’ again and again. Hard to imagine he can win the next election at this stage
Maybe the best thing to do if thinking about long term betting is not to watch PMQs though.
LD 11/10 in NS now. Doesn't look value, but in a couple of hours it might retrospectively do
Looks like massive value to me.
They should be heavy odds-on favourites. I don't see any possible way that the Tories win this seat in a mid-term by-election mired in scandal.
I wouldn't turn out to vote for this shower of shite. Who would?
Well there was one guy on R5 this morning who called in to opine that it was all just Labour point scoring, and all is fine. So there's that.
HYUFD?
Or are there two people who think like that?
Boris making the best of a very bad situation here now with the apology and investigation, but the whole situation is shambolic.
Still, when in a hole, stop digging. At least he's not made the situation worse, but it is a shambles.
Indeed, I wasn't expecting an apology! Sack Stratton and that'll be an end to it all.
Johnson can reward himself with and hour or two of campaign dressing up for nipping that problem in the bud.
Indeed, provided there is no evidence Boris was there he can sack Stratton from her COP26 spokesperson role and discipline the attendees and the news cycle will move on
What's even more stupid is that today we actually had pretty good information on the level of immunity escape that Omicron has, it's much better than was initially feared with two and three doses of vaccine or natural immunity providing a pretty big shield against severe disease. I simply don't see what Plan B achieves in a largely vaccinated or naturally immune population.
Because very high transmission and not as high health impacts still creates a tidal wave of people sick and in hospital and dying. The scenario seems to be that fewer people will get really sick from Omicron than Delta, but if as transmittable as suggested there will be a lot of them.
But plan B isn't going to prevent that? We can see across the whole of Europe that plan b measures are of low value. France just clicked in 58k cases despite all having all of this in place, Germany has been clocking in 70k+ per day for a while despite tougher than plan B. The Netherlands is in pretty much lockdown and getting our equivalent of 80k cases per day.
You're aiming a hose pipe at a forest fire and expecting it to make a difference, it won't. If anything you're falling for their bullshit lies that Plan B will miraculously make everything go away. It won't. All it means is we're all living in a police state where the government has the ability to exclude people from normal life if they feel like it.
The view from the health experts and NHS managers is that it will help. Who am I to tell them they are wrong? The difference between us and the countries you mention is that because they kept restrictions on things like masks, they were able to keep case numbers very low. We did not and hence suffered 40k new cases a day month after month which put the service under such massive prolonged pressure.
And yet now the Netherlands has got more people in hospital than their first wave peak, Germany has got more in the ICU than their second wave peak, France is heading in the same direction. All that's different about what they did is they will end up with the same number of people hospitalised, except in a much shorter timeframe. However you slice this, everyone will get COVID and for unvaccinated people ~10% will end up in hospital for vaccinated people about ~0.5%, most countries are trending towards 70-75% people vaccinated, which means there's a lot of people who are potentially going to enter the funnel and end up in hospital. That is going to happen today, tomorrow or three months from now because COVID isn't going to go away.
That's the grim reality of COVID, we're all going to get it multiple times and people are going to die from it every year, it is the new influenza and will take the lives of the vulnerable every year just as the flu does. That's the reality, whether the NHS managers want to admit it or whether they think they can eliminate death is simply irrelevant. Chris Whitty has said multiple times that everyone in the country is going to get COVID, I sat around a table of pharma and academic experts who all said the same thing, there is no escaping COVID, it's coming for all of us and sadly for some older and more vulnerable people it is going to kill them, even with vaccines just as the flu does.
Boris clearly in mortal danger. And permanently hobbled now. But he might be saved - in the short term at least - by events. Plan B will arrive tonight. Work from home, vaxports. London screwed again. Lockdown looming
Carrie’s influence clearly diminished, what with the Kabul cats & dogs shenanigans and Allegra hung out to dry.
With another baby on the way, I wonder if she’ll be bending boris’s arm to quit?
I still can't get my head around that story (couldn't then, can't now). How it got up to the top of government is absolutely bewildering. Those on the ground should have told whoever that pet owner was that he and his staff could go, but not the animals.
The one positive for Johnson is that he wasn't at the party.
I'll say it again, given the layout of Downing Street, he'd have to be blind and deaf to not realise a party of 30 was taking place.
I find it hard to believe that the temptation to show face, provide a tonic for the troops and receive a dose of phony affection from them would have been very hard to resist, even for non pathologically needy pricks.
He wasn't at 'that' party. He categorically was at another
The other one they probably get away with. Somebody leaving and you give a short speech then leave. Dicey, but reason the focus is on what clearly sounds like a big knees up.
As i say, my take is he has encouraged them, done the old if i don't see it, it didn't happen routine. And now he has to lie, as if he threw them under the bus, they will say Boris told us it was ok.
Professor Neil Ferguson says Cop could have been an omicron super spreading event. Points out that rates are highest in London (“to be expected”) and Scotland (where Cop was hosted) #today 7:22 am · 8 Dec 2021·Twitter for iPhone"
LD 11/10 in NS now. Doesn't look value, but in a couple of hours it might retrospectively do
Looks like massive value to me.
They should be heavy odds-on favourites. I don't see any possible way that the Tories win this seat in a mid-term by-election mired in scandal.
I wouldn't turn out to vote for this shower of shite. Who would?
Well there was one guy on R5 this morning who called in to opine that it was all just Labour point scoring, and all is fine. So there's that.
HYUFD?
Or are there two people who think like that?
Boris making the best of a very bad situation here now with the apology and investigation, but the whole situation is shambolic.
Still, when in a hole, stop digging. At least he's not made the situation worse, but it is a shambles.
Indeed, I wasn't expecting an apology! Sack Stratton and that'll be an end to it all.
Johnson can reward himself with and hour or two of campaign dressing up for nipping that problem in the bud.
Indeed, provided there is no evidence Boris was there he can sack Stratton from her COP26 spokesperson role and discipline the attendees and the news cycle will move on
You are correct, but don't you believe that is a disgraceful state of affairs?
Boris clearly in mortal danger. And permanently hobbled now. But he might be saved - in the short term at least - by events. Plan B will arrive tonight. Work from home, vaxports. London screwed again. Lockdown looming
This will overwhelm all other news.
No, people saying "you don't obey the rules so neither will we" will be the news.
Boris clearly in mortal danger. And permanently hobbled now. But he might be saved - in the short term at least - by events. Plan B will arrive tonight. Work from home, vaxports. London screwed again. Lockdown looming
This will overwhelm all other news.
And there we are. State curtailments of liberties is in the government toolkit now. Now about to wheel some out as a diversionary tactic to move on the news cycle.
I can't really see a good way out of this for the Tories.
What a mess.
Boris gets pushed out.
And the Tories probably face a decade or more in opposition.
Removing proven election winners rarely works. After forcing Thatcher out the Tories lost 3 out of 4 of the next general elections, after Blair went Labour has lost 4 General elections in a row.
There is a reason non Tories want Boris out as he is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and also the leader with most appeal to the RedWall. Remove him and Starmer's job becomes easier
I concur.
Keep Boris. Please.
HYUFD as tone death as ever is see.
HYUFD - I’ve voted conservative. Consistently. Not anymore.
And there’s plenty more who’ll do the same until Bojo is gone. It was funny when he was mayor and plummeting down zip wires. It stopped being funny when he became prime minister
Do you live in a RedWall seat or seat in the top 100 Labour targets or a seat in the top 50 LD targets? If not then your opinion does not really matter under FPTP, your seat will stay Tory or Labour anyway however you vote
I live in a Red Wall seat. 3 Cyclefree family votes.
I look forward to my opinion now mattering to the Tory party.
Did you vote Tory in 2019? No.
Your opinion only matters if you not only live in those seats but voted for the Tory MP in 2019 too
Copeland was a Labour seat for very many years. How do you think it became Tory? Because the Tory candidate took the trouble to listen to the opinions of people who had not voted Tory before.
How do you think she increased her majority at the two subsequent General Elections? By getting the votes of people who had not previously voted Tory.
I know you will find this hard to understand. But try. Just for once.
Not sure which I admire more, the perseverance, or the unwillingness to acknowledge that you can't actually get such an answers from him....
Perhaps @Leon should sell a range of small granite walls for people to bash their heads against....
What's even more stupid is that today we actually had pretty good information on the level of immunity escape that Omicron has, it's much better than was initially feared with two and three doses of vaccine or natural immunity providing a pretty big shield against severe disease. I simply don't see what Plan B achieves in a largely vaccinated or naturally immune population.
Because very high transmission and not as high health impacts still creates a tidal wave of people sick and in hospital and dying. The scenario seems to be that fewer people will get really sick from Omicron than Delta, but if as transmittable as suggested there will be a lot of them.
But plan B isn't going to prevent that? We can see across the whole of Europe that plan b measures are of low value. France just clicked in 58k cases despite all having all of this in place, Germany has been clocking in 70k+ per day for a while despite tougher than plan B. The Netherlands is in pretty much lockdown and getting our equivalent of 80k cases per day.
You're aiming a hose pipe at a forest fire and expecting it to make a difference, it won't. If anything you're falling for their bullshit lies that Plan B will miraculously make everything go away. It won't. All it means is we're all living in a police state where the government has the ability to exclude people from normal life if they feel like it.
The view from the health experts and NHS managers is that it will help. Who am I to tell them they are wrong? The difference between us and the countries you mention is that because they kept restrictions on things like masks, they were able to keep case numbers very low. We did not and hence suffered 40k new cases a day month after month which put the service under such massive prolonged pressure.
And yet now the Netherlands has got more people in hospital than their first wave peak, Germany has got more in the ICU than their second wave peak, France is heading in the same direction. All that's different about what they did is they will end up with the same number of people hospitalised, except in a much shorter timeframe. However you slice this, everyone will get COVID and for unvaccinated people ~10% will end up in hospital for vaccinated people about ~0.5%, most countries are trending towards 70-75% people vaccinated, which means there's a lot of people who are potentially going to enter the funnel and end up in hospital. That is going to happen today, tomorrow or three months from now because COVID isn't going to go away.
That's the grim reality of COVID, we're all going to get it multiple times and people are going to die from it every year, it is the new influenza and will take the lives of the vulnerable every year just as the flu does. That's the reality, whether the NHS managers want to admit it or whether they think they can eliminate death is simply irrelevant. Chris Whitty has said multiple times that everyone in the country is going to get COVID, I sat around a table of pharma and academic experts who all said the same thing, there is no escaping COVID, it's coming for all of us and sadly for some older and more vulnerable people it is going to kill them, even with vaccines just as the flu does.
Since you mention Germany. It's far from clear what you say is true. Show me your workings.
On UK "Freedom Day" Germany had fewer than 2% of the daily cases that than the UK had. If Germany had had a Freedom Day at that time it would have taken weeks to reach similar case levels. Maybe all that would have happened is that the winter wave here would have started from a much higher base, and right now we would be in a proper lockdown, rather than a partial lockdown that only applies to unvaccinated adults.
Also on Freedom Day the UK had 87% of the adult population with at least one vaccine dose. In Germany it was 72%. If Germany waited until 87% of the adult population had a vaccine dose, we'd still be waiting now. The problem is the failure to vaccinate people, not making people put on a mask when shopping during the summer.
OK the government could have encouraged infections to spread during August-October, maybe it would have been a good idea. (Although the restrictions that were in place were put there by the Bundesländer, and generally amounted to wearing masks in shops, and barely enforced 3G rules for some venues. Plus of course test and trace and self-isolation, which I believe the UK also continued with). We would have had maybe 10% fewer people with no immunity from prior infection or vaccination. A small plus, but we would have gone into the very rapid increase of recent weeks from a much higher starting point. So I'm not at all sure we would be better off.
I think the point is that with that additional natural immunity there's less chance of the virus being able to reach escape velocity in the first place. That's the issue here, that getting the unvaccinated into the immunity funnel is only going to happen one way, they get COVID. Everyone is going to get COVID, pushing infections into the future was a poor idea and now lockdowns are back. Even here where Boris is shafting the nation to cover up his own deficiencies.
Whilst I hope Boris is toast and we can get a serious government I’m a bit conflicted on this situation.
Firstly what constitutes a “party”? Everyone in the office that day agrees to wear Christmas jumpers to cheer up after a crap year. They have booze and food in the office - like many offices. Boss of Downing Street says “right chaps, let’s knock off a bit earlier tonight and have some nibbles and wine, may as well do the secret Santa too.”
It’s not, if that’s the case, what I would call a party. If no outsiders invited in and not arranged as such.
The above might be completely wrong but as I said - what constitutes a party? And if they didn’t break covid rules as there were the same people in the office as had been working then also while not a great look I’m sure, despite the wailing, plenty of other workplaces were doing similar.
And on the Allegra Stratton video - what the f is she supposed to do? She’s doing a dummy run press conference and messing around. If she wasn’t there and doesn’t know what the hell to say then I’m not surprised by the behaviour - it feels like everyone expects everyone in government to have been walking around in sack cloth and ashes over the period - they are humans and humans aren’t perfect.
I might be slightly amoral but I find the shroud waving a bit over the top.
If they’ve broken the rules then punish them and ultimately as I said I hope Boris is toast - not because of this but because this is just a symptom of his attitude and lack of seriousness.
I’ve just heard someone on radio 2 saying nobody should have been finding anything to laugh about at the time….. I will do penance for having laughed and joked over Christmas despite my father dying 8 weeks before…..
LD 11/10 in NS now. Doesn't look value, but in a couple of hours it might retrospectively do
Looks like massive value to me.
They should be heavy odds-on favourites. I don't see any possible way that the Tories win this seat in a mid-term by-election mired in scandal.
I wouldn't turn out to vote for this shower of shite. Who would?
Well there was one guy on R5 this morning who called in to opine that it was all just Labour point scoring, and all is fine. So there's that.
HYUFD?
Or are there two people who think like that?
Boris making the best of a very bad situation here now with the apology and investigation, but the whole situation is shambolic.
Still, when in a hole, stop digging. At least he's not made the situation worse, but it is a shambles.
Indeed, I wasn't expecting an apology! Sack Stratton and that'll be an end to it all.
Johnson can reward himself with and hour or two of campaign dressing up for nipping that problem in the bud.
Indeed, provided there is no evidence Boris was there he can sack Stratton from her COP26 spokesperson role and discipline the attendees and the news cycle will move on
The arguments in favour of vaccine passports always struck me as weak on balance. Now, I'm not even convinced a case can be made for them at all ... 4/
What's even more stupid is that today we actually had pretty good information on the level of immunity escape that Omicron has, it's much better than was initially feared with two and three doses of vaccine or natural immunity providing a pretty big shield against severe disease. I simply don't see what Plan B achieves in a largely vaccinated or naturally immune population.
Because very high transmission and not as high health impacts still creates a tidal wave of people sick and in hospital and dying. The scenario seems to be that fewer people will get really sick from Omicron than Delta, but if as transmittable as suggested there will be a lot of them.
You keep saying this, but your conclusion rests entirely what the ratio is. If it's twice as many infections, with half the hospitalisation rate, then nothing has changed.
If Omicron is very dangerous we need to protect the NHS. If Omicron in not so dangerous we need to protect the NHS.
Must logically be a sweet spot somewhere in between - or are we being run the NHS now?
Yes, the UK is now basically an NHS with a country attached.
And the rest of the developed world (apart from the US) wondering why the hell they do it like that.
Numbers of developed countries are locking down in the face of a surge in COVID. To prevent their health systems being overwhelmed.
Don't do that! Let people enjoy their "nhs with a country attached" in peace.
Ah - facts.
Incidentally, I came up with the perfect windup to the post-modernist "There is no objective truth, only subjective, personal truth" brigade....
Boris clearly in mortal danger. And permanently hobbled now. But he might be saved - in the short term at least - by events. Plan B will arrive tonight. Work from home, vaxports. London screwed again. Lockdown looming
This will overwhelm all other news.
Disagree on lockdown. I rate it a slim chance only.
If you are a smart journalist what you'd really want to know and save for the final blow, is what Boris said he was going to do for Christmas and what he really did.
Boris clearly in mortal danger. And permanently hobbled now. But he might be saved - in the short term at least - by events. Plan B will arrive tonight. Work from home, vaxports. London screwed again. Lockdown looming
This will overwhelm all other news.
Disagree on lockdown. I rate it a slim chance only.
Unless Johnson gets caught with his cock in someone and then he'll lockdown so we all look the other way.
Caught the end of PMQs, have to say Boris looked pretty bad repeating the same line about ‘playing politics’ again and again. Hard to imagine he can win the next election at this stage
Maybe the best thing to do if thinking about long term betting is not to watch PMQs though.
New betfair market - will he be PM on 1st Jan 2022.
What's even more stupid is that today we actually had pretty good information on the level of immunity escape that Omicron has, it's much better than was initially feared with two and three doses of vaccine or natural immunity providing a pretty big shield against severe disease. I simply don't see what Plan B achieves in a largely vaccinated or naturally immune population.
Because very high transmission and not as high health impacts still creates a tidal wave of people sick and in hospital and dying. The scenario seems to be that fewer people will get really sick from Omicron than Delta, but if as transmittable as suggested there will be a lot of them.
You keep saying this, but your conclusion rests entirely what the ratio is. If it's twice as many infections, with half the hospitalisation rate, then nothing has changed.
If Omicron is very dangerous we need to protect the NHS. If Omicron in not so dangerous we need to protect the NHS.
Must logically be a sweet spot somewhere in between - or are we being run the NHS now?
Yes, the UK is now basically an NHS with a country attached.
And the rest of the developed world (apart from the US) wondering why the hell they do it like that.
Numbers of developed countries are locking down in the face of a surge in COVID. To prevent their health systems being overwhelmed.
Don't do that! Let people enjoy their "nhs with a country attached" in peace.
Ah - facts.
Incidentally, I came up with the perfect windup to the post-modernist "There is no objective truth, only subjective, personal truth" brigade....
I see. And will I be sufficiently favoured to hear it?
I can't really see a good way out of this for the Tories.
What a mess.
Boris gets pushed out.
And the Tories probably face a decade or more in opposition.
Removing proven election winners rarely works. After forcing Thatcher out the Tories lost 3 out of 4 of the next general elections, after Blair went Labour has lost 4 General elections in a row.
There is a reason non Tories want Boris out as he is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and also the leader with most appeal to the RedWall. Remove him and Starmer's job becomes easier
I concur.
Keep Boris. Please.
Conflation of correlation and causation once again from master of statistics HYUFD.
Alternative explanation: leaders get kicked out by their own when the party has outlasted its sell-by date and is already in the electoral wilderness. I.e. the causation is the party has become rotten to the core. The effects are that the leader is kicked out AND the party takes a while to find a new leadership and recover.
What's even more stupid is that today we actually had pretty good information on the level of immunity escape that Omicron has, it's much better than was initially feared with two and three doses of vaccine or natural immunity providing a pretty big shield against severe disease. I simply don't see what Plan B achieves in a largely vaccinated or naturally immune population.
Because very high transmission and not as high health impacts still creates a tidal wave of people sick and in hospital and dying. The scenario seems to be that fewer people will get really sick from Omicron than Delta, but if as transmittable as suggested there will be a lot of them.
You keep saying this, but your conclusion rests entirely what the ratio is. If it's twice as many infections, with half the hospitalisation rate, then nothing has changed.
If Omicron is very dangerous we need to protect the NHS. If Omicron in not so dangerous we need to protect the NHS.
Must logically be a sweet spot somewhere in between - or are we being run the NHS now?
Yes, the UK is now basically an NHS with a country attached.
And the rest of the developed world (apart from the US) wondering why the hell they do it like that.
Numbers of developed countries are locking down in the face of a surge in COVID. To prevent their health systems being overwhelmed.
Don't do that! Let people enjoy their "nhs with a country attached" in peace.
Ah - facts.
Incidentally, I came up with the perfect windup to the post-modernist "There is no objective truth, only subjective, personal truth" brigade....
Tis a truth universally acknowledged that Michel Foucault liked to have sex with underage boys in Tunisia.
What's even more stupid is that today we actually had pretty good information on the level of immunity escape that Omicron has, it's much better than was initially feared with two and three doses of vaccine or natural immunity providing a pretty big shield against severe disease. I simply don't see what Plan B achieves in a largely vaccinated or naturally immune population.
Because very high transmission and not as high health impacts still creates a tidal wave of people sick and in hospital and dying. The scenario seems to be that fewer people will get really sick from Omicron than Delta, but if as transmittable as suggested there will be a lot of them.
But plan B isn't going to prevent that? We can see across the whole of Europe that plan b measures are of low value. France just clicked in 58k cases despite all having all of this in place, Germany has been clocking in 70k+ per day for a while despite tougher than plan B. The Netherlands is in pretty much lockdown and getting our equivalent of 80k cases per day.
You're aiming a hose pipe at a forest fire and expecting it to make a difference, it won't. If anything you're falling for their bullshit lies that Plan B will miraculously make everything go away. It won't. All it means is we're all living in a police state where the government has the ability to exclude people from normal life if they feel like it.
The view from the health experts and NHS managers is that it will help. Who am I to tell them they are wrong? The difference between us and the countries you mention is that because they kept restrictions on things like masks, they were able to keep case numbers very low. We did not and hence suffered 40k new cases a day month after month which put the service under such massive prolonged pressure.
And yet now the Netherlands has got more people in hospital than their first wave peak, Germany has got more in the ICU than their second wave peak, France is heading in the same direction. All that's different about what they did is they will end up with the same number of people hospitalised, except in a much shorter timeframe. However you slice this, everyone will get COVID and for unvaccinated people ~10% will end up in hospital for vaccinated people about ~0.5%, most countries are trending towards 70-75% people vaccinated, which means there's a lot of people who are potentially going to enter the funnel and end up in hospital. That is going to happen today, tomorrow or three months from now because COVID isn't going to go away.
That's the grim reality of COVID, we're all going to get it multiple times and people are going to die from it every year, it is the new influenza and will take the lives of the vulnerable every year just as the flu does. That's the reality, whether the NHS managers want to admit it or whether they think they can eliminate death is simply irrelevant. Chris Whitty has said multiple times that everyone in the country is going to get COVID, I sat around a table of pharma and academic experts who all said the same thing, there is no escaping COVID, it's coming for all of us and sadly for some older and more vulnerable people it is going to kill them, even with vaccines just as the flu does.
Since you mention Germany. It's far from clear what you say is true. Show me your workings.
On UK "Freedom Day" Germany had fewer than 2% of the daily cases that than the UK had. If Germany had had a Freedom Day at that time it would have taken weeks to reach similar case levels. Maybe all that would have happened is that the winter wave here would have started from a much higher base, and right now we would be in a proper lockdown, rather than a partial lockdown that only applies to unvaccinated adults.
Also on Freedom Day the UK had 87% of the adult population with at least one vaccine dose. In Germany it was 72%. If Germany waited until 87% of the adult population had a vaccine dose, we'd still be waiting now. The problem is the failure to vaccinate people, not making people put on a mask when shopping during the summer.
OK the government could have encouraged infections to spread during August-October, maybe it would have been a good idea. (Although the restrictions that were in place were put there by the Bundesländer, and generally amounted to wearing masks in shops, and barely enforced 3G rules for some venues. Plus of course test and trace and self-isolation, which I believe the UK also continued with). We would have had maybe 10% fewer people with no immunity from prior infection or vaccination. A small plus, but we would have gone into the very rapid increase of recent weeks from a much higher starting point. So I'm not at all sure we would be better off.
I think the point is that with that additional natural immunity there's less chance of the virus being able to reach escape velocity in the first place. That's the issue here, that getting the unvaccinated into the immunity funnel is only going to happen one way, they get COVID. Everyone is going to get COVID, pushing infections into the future was a poor idea and now lockdowns are back. Even here where Boris is shafting the nation to cover up his own deficiencies.
I understand that point. My point is that what might be very probably a good idea in one place might not be somewhere else, or at least require different timings. That is why I asked to see your workings - especially as different countries in, as you put it, "the whole of Europe" are, well, different. In Germany's case I don't think having maybe 1-2 million fewer people with no immunity out of roughly 20 million is going to be enough to stop "escape velocity", and would come at the price of starting the winter rise from a much much higher base so would there be any advantage. The calculations are going to be different in different places. Maybe your argument works better in countries like Portugal with high vaccination rates, though I have no idea what restrictions they kept in place over the summer, and whether they could have funnelled unvaxxed into natural immunity over the summer.
And are measures really so ineffective? (I have no idea what is UK's "plan B"). Germany's case rate is now slightly declining, despite a massive pool of people with no immunity, the weather getting worse, and christmas get-togethers happening - surely at least partly as a result of the recent restrictions for unvaccinated adults, tightening of a few other rules, and authorities finally starting to enforce the rules that we have.
Comments
BoZo is useless. No change.
BoZo is an habitual liar. No change.
BoZo is utterly shameless. No change.
BoZo takes no personal responsibility for anything. No change.
The fanbois love him. No change.
Unless the men in grey suits act, he is there to stay.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523448 https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1468557954035167245/photo/1
(And, in all fairness on my original comment, I don't think even you are defending Johnson here - maybe accepting his denial, but not defending the party)
At this rate it'll only be HYUFD and a pile of Telegraphs left in the ruins of the Reichstag.
On UK "Freedom Day" Germany had fewer than 2% of the daily cases that than the UK had. If Germany had had a Freedom Day at that time it would have taken weeks to reach similar case levels. Maybe all that would have happened is that the winter wave here would have started from a much higher base, and right now we would be in a proper lockdown, rather than a partial lockdown that only applies to unvaccinated adults.
Also on Freedom Day the UK had 87% of the adult population with at least one vaccine dose. In Germany it was 72%. If Germany waited until 87% of the adult population had a vaccine dose, we'd still be waiting now. The problem is the failure to vaccinate people, not making people put on a mask when shopping during the summer.
OK the government could have encouraged infections to spread during August-October, maybe it would have been a good idea. (Although the restrictions that were in place were put there by the Bundesländer, and generally amounted to wearing masks in shops, and barely enforced 3G rules for some venues. Plus of course test and trace and self-isolation, which I believe the UK also continued with). We would have had maybe 10% fewer people with no immunity from prior infection or vaccination. A small plus, but we would have gone into the very rapid increase of recent weeks from a much higher starting point. So I'm not at all sure we would be better off.
"Stop trying to play politics and confuse people"
https://mobile.twitter.com/susie_dent/status/1468501384576315394
Professor Neil Ferguson says Cop could have been an omicron super spreading event.
Points out that rates are highest in London (“to be expected”) and Scotland (where Cop was hosted) #today
7:22 am · 8 Dec 2021·Twitter for iPhone"
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1468481007091339265
The problem is, that nuance is difficult, and the shouts of “Christmas Party” are drowning out everything else.
It may, of course, be the case that there were loads of extra guests invited, dozens of bottles of champagne, a few grams of Colombian marching powder, and they all staggered out of of the door well past midnight.
Maybe the best thing to do if thinking about long term betting is not to watch PMQs though.
With another baby on the way, I wonder if she’ll be bending boris’s arm to quit?
Insulting gaffs about Peppa Pig and Ant and Dec in same week.
Starmer must resign!
This will overwhelm all other news.
Remember the next day he announced the new restrictions and those reports said he had been holed up in Downing Street for days.
If anyone says well he lives in the flat about Number 11 but that doesn't wash given the layout of the complex.
(Obvious joke is obvious)
As i say, my take is he has encouraged them, done the old if i don't see it, it didn't happen routine. And now he has to lie, as if he threw them under the bus, they will say Boris told us it was ok.
Good if so. There should be such a boycott.
He's richer, younger, slimmer & better looking than Boris and has a similar outlook on stuff to her.
Perhaps @Leon should sell a range of small granite walls for people to bash their heads against....
condemned as unfit to lead these islands
Firstly what constitutes a “party”? Everyone in the office that day agrees to wear Christmas jumpers to cheer up after a crap year. They have booze and food in the office - like many offices. Boss of Downing Street says “right chaps, let’s knock off a bit earlier tonight and have some nibbles and wine, may as well do the secret Santa too.”
It’s not, if that’s the case, what I would call a party. If no outsiders invited in and not arranged as such.
The above might be completely wrong but as I said - what constitutes a party? And if they didn’t break covid rules as there were the same people in the office as had been working then also while not a great look I’m sure, despite the wailing, plenty of other workplaces were doing similar.
And on the Allegra Stratton video - what the f is she supposed to do? She’s doing a dummy run press conference and messing around. If she wasn’t there and doesn’t know what the hell to say then I’m not surprised by the behaviour - it feels like everyone expects everyone in government to have been walking around in sack cloth and ashes over the period - they are humans and humans aren’t perfect.
I might be slightly amoral but I find the shroud waving a bit over the top.
If they’ve broken the rules then punish them and ultimately as I said I hope Boris is toast - not because of this but because this is just a symptom of his attitude and lack of seriousness.
I’ve just heard someone on radio 2 saying nobody should have been finding anything to laugh about at the time….. I will do penance for having laughed and joked over Christmas despite my father dying 8 weeks before…..
The arguments in favour of vaccine passports always struck me as weak on balance. Now, I'm not even convinced a case can be made for them at all ...
4/
Incidentally, I came up with the perfect windup to the post-modernist "There is no objective truth, only subjective, personal truth" brigade....
1.07 he will.
Alternative explanation: leaders get kicked out by their own when the party has outlasted its sell-by date and is already in the electoral wilderness. I.e. the causation is the party has become rotten to the core. The effects are that the leader is kicked out AND the party takes a while to find a new leadership and recover.
And are measures really so ineffective? (I have no idea what is UK's "plan B"). Germany's case rate is now slightly declining, despite a massive pool of people with no immunity, the weather getting worse, and christmas get-togethers happening - surely at least partly as a result of the recent restrictions for unvaccinated adults, tightening of a few other rules, and authorities finally starting to enforce the rules that we have.