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On the day of the 1st anniversary of the vaccine – politicalbetting.com

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    The benches are full this week it seems. That's interesting and unexpected.

    Day of drama !!!
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377
    maaarsh said:

    Foxy said:

    maaarsh said:

    MaxPB said:

    maaarsh said:

    Chris said:

    maaarsh said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's even more stupid is that today we actually had pretty good information on the level of immunity escape that Omicron has, it's much better than was initially feared with two and three doses of vaccine or natural immunity providing a pretty big shield against severe disease. I simply don't see what Plan B achieves in a largely vaccinated or naturally immune population.

    Because very high transmission and not as high health impacts still creates a tidal wave of people sick and in hospital and dying. The scenario seems to be that fewer people will get really sick from Omicron than Delta, but if as transmittable as suggested there will be a lot of them.
    You keep saying this, but your conclusion rests entirely what the ratio is. If it's twice as many infections, with half the hospitalisation rate, then nothing has changed.
    Unfortunately the number doesn't stay constant. If Neil Ferguson's estimate today is right, if the number of Omicron infections is twice as many on a given day, it will be 14 times as many a week later.
    Well the current number is 1/32nd of the delta total so there's plenty of doubling slack in the system. And anyone who thinks it's going to keep doubling forever has not been paying attention.
    Indeed, they said that about Delta, that it would double until we got to 200-300k cases per day and 2000-3000 hospitalisations per day. Yet that never happened. Now we go into the Omicron wave with average case severity down significantly because of vaccines and prior infection, this is nothing more than a plan to divert attention away from the Xmas party.
    The scary thing is how would new restrictions ever get released? We're not waiting for vaccines, we're not waiting for hospital numbers to decline - there will never be a non arbitrary time to remove restrictions which were created arbitrarily.
    I am not advocating another lockdown, but what you say is not true. The first wave abated by June 2020, with no vaccines for another 6 months.

    It is the nature of pandemic waves that they peak and then decline.
    My point is that there isn't a pandemic wave (of hospitalisations) triggering this. I appreciate the current covid levels in hospitals aren't making your life any easier, but it's 6k in England vs 34k at peak, and it's not rising yet. If you lockdown before a wave starts, and it never comes, when and why do you unlock.
    Admission are beginning to rise....

    image
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    Urgh I just bought panto tickets

    I'm going to the panto tonight!
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    Urgh I just bought panto tickets

    Oh no you didn't.

    :smiley:
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    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I can't really see a good way out of this for the Tories.

    What a mess.

    Boris gets pushed out.
    And the Tories probably face a decade or more in opposition.

    Removing proven election winners rarely works. After forcing Thatcher out the Tories lost 3 out of 4 of the next general elections, after Blair went Labour has lost 4 General elections in a row.

    There is a reason non Tories want Boris out as he is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and also the leader with most appeal to the RedWall. Remove him and Starmer's job becomes easier
    I concur.

    Keep Boris. Please.
    HYUFD as tone death as ever is see.

    HYUFD - I’ve voted conservative. Consistently. Not anymore.

    And there’s plenty more who’ll do the same until Bojo is gone. It was funny when he was mayor and plummeting down zip wires. It stopped being funny when he became prime minister
    Do you live in a RedWall seat or seat in the top 100 Labour targets or a seat in the top 50 LD targets? If not then your opinion does not really matter under FPTP, your seat will stay Tory or Labour anyway however you vote
    I live in a Red Wall seat. 3 Cyclefree family votes.

    I look forward to my opinion now mattering to the Tory party.
    Did you vote Tory in 2019? No.

    Your opinion only matters if you not only live in those seats but voted for the Tory MP in 2019 too
    Bullshit!

    Everyone has a vote and everybody's votes matters. Everyone starts from zero votes when they get counted.

    If anyone's vote didn't matter it'd be yours as someone who never changes how they vote and lives in a safe seat and can be completely taken for granted.
    Under FPTP it doesn't matter if you win a seat by 80-20 or 60-40 or 50-30-20.

    This creates an unhealthy set of incentives for the parties to prioritise only that small number of constituencies that are currently competitive.

    It also creates an unhealthy set of incentives for the voters to vote negatively against things, rather than positively for things, and this means that weak candidates can prosper where they wear the right colour of rosette.

    A number of alternative voting systems, like STV, or open-list PR, solve these and other problems. Obviously we wouldn't want to use some abomination of a closed list PR system.
    Out of curiosity any idea what proportion of seats have never changed hands from 1992 to today? Ie covering both Labour gaining power last time they did, and the Tories doing so, to date.

    People talk about "safe seats" but the reality is the number of constituencies that can change are a lot larger than people realise.

    If we only relied upon the swing seats of the past then the Conservatives would never have bothered campaigning in seats like Leigh last election, would they?
    Thirty years is a long time to wait for, possibly, a change of party. I know that no seat I've voted in has ever changed hands at an election in which I've voted, nor even looked close, and that's been four different seats in six different general elections.

    A lot of the time when a seat does change hands it has been because of "demographic change" - so different voters living there, which means that people's personal experience of being able to create change is even lower than looking at the seats would suggest.
    If a seat doesn't change hands that simply means the voters there haven't changed their minds. There's nothing wrong with that.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,779

    Urgh I just bought panto tickets

    I'm going to the panto tonight!
    Oh no you're not!
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    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    MaxPB said:

    maaarsh said:

    MaxPB said:

    maaarsh said:

    Chris said:

    maaarsh said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's even more stupid is that today we actually had pretty good information on the level of immunity escape that Omicron has, it's much better than was initially feared with two and three doses of vaccine or natural immunity providing a pretty big shield against severe disease. I simply don't see what Plan B achieves in a largely vaccinated or naturally immune population.

    Because very high transmission and not as high health impacts still creates a tidal wave of people sick and in hospital and dying. The scenario seems to be that fewer people will get really sick from Omicron than Delta, but if as transmittable as suggested there will be a lot of them.
    You keep saying this, but your conclusion rests entirely what the ratio is. If it's twice as many infections, with half the hospitalisation rate, then nothing has changed.
    Unfortunately the number doesn't stay constant. If Neil Ferguson's estimate today is right, if the number of Omicron infections is twice as many on a given day, it will be 14 times as many a week later.
    Well the current number is 1/32nd of the delta total so there's plenty of doubling slack in the system. And anyone who thinks it's going to keep doubling forever has not been paying attention.
    Indeed, they said that about Delta, that it would double until we got to 200-300k cases per day and 2000-3000 hospitalisations per day. Yet that never happened. Now we go into the Omicron wave with average case severity down significantly because of vaccines and prior infection, this is nothing more than a plan to divert attention away from the Xmas party.
    The scary thing is how would new restrictions ever get released? We're not waiting for vaccines, we're not waiting for hospital numbers to decline - there will never be a non arbitrary time to remove restrictions which were created arbitrarily.
    Indeed, last time they said "this is until the vaccine", this time I'm not really sure what the break point is, this is going to become the new normal just as it has become all across Europe and all because the PM couldn't tell his wife to get fucked about those animals and sack those No 10 staffers who had the Xmas party.
    The break point would be rollout of a mRNA Omicron-targeted vaccine booster shot to the vulnerable bits of the population, but that's basically a year away. There's no way the country will tolerate that.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    edited December 2021
    MaxPB said:

    maaarsh said:

    MaxPB said:

    maaarsh said:

    Chris said:

    maaarsh said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's even more stupid is that today we actually had pretty good information on the level of immunity escape that Omicron has, it's much better than was initially feared with two and three doses of vaccine or natural immunity providing a pretty big shield against severe disease. I simply don't see what Plan B achieves in a largely vaccinated or naturally immune population.

    Because very high transmission and not as high health impacts still creates a tidal wave of people sick and in hospital and dying. The scenario seems to be that fewer people will get really sick from Omicron than Delta, but if as transmittable as suggested there will be a lot of them.
    You keep saying this, but your conclusion rests entirely what the ratio is. If it's twice as many infections, with half the hospitalisation rate, then nothing has changed.
    Unfortunately the number doesn't stay constant. If Neil Ferguson's estimate today is right, if the number of Omicron infections is twice as many on a given day, it will be 14 times as many a week later.
    Well the current number is 1/32nd of the delta total so there's plenty of doubling slack in the system. And anyone who thinks it's going to keep doubling forever has not been paying attention.
    Indeed, they said that about Delta, that it would double until we got to 200-300k cases per day and 2000-3000 hospitalisations per day. Yet that never happened. Now we go into the Omicron wave with average case severity down significantly because of vaccines and prior infection, this is nothing more than a plan to divert attention away from the Xmas party.
    The scary thing is how would new restrictions ever get released? We're not waiting for vaccines, we're not waiting for hospital numbers to decline - there will never be a non arbitrary time to remove restrictions which were created arbitrarily.
    Indeed, last time they said "this is until the vaccine", this time I'm not really sure what the break point is, this is going to become the new normal just as it has become all across Europe and all because the PM couldn't tell his wife to get fucked about those animals and sack those No 10 staffers who had the Xmas party.
    Yeh, I say you have the measure of it. If only Laura K would blurt that out on World at One.
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    Leading with an apology before the first question. About time.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    Leading with an apology before the first question. About time.

    I thought it was PMQs, not a statement from the PM.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    OOOOOHH

    Statement.
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    "I was also furious to see that clip". Yeah, I bet you were...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,995
    edited December 2021
    Boris tells the Commons if it turns out attendees at the Downing Street party last year broke lockdown rules in force then they will face disciplinary action.

    He confirms he did not attend the party
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    TimSTimS Posts: 9,603
    DougSeal said:

    Chris said:

    MaxPB said:

    maaarsh said:

    Chris said:

    maaarsh said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's even more stupid is that today we actually had pretty good information on the level of immunity escape that Omicron has, it's much better than was initially feared with two and three doses of vaccine or natural immunity providing a pretty big shield against severe disease. I simply don't see what Plan B achieves in a largely vaccinated or naturally immune population.

    Because very high transmission and not as high health impacts still creates a tidal wave of people sick and in hospital and dying. The scenario seems to be that fewer people will get really sick from Omicron than Delta, but if as transmittable as suggested there will be a lot of them.
    You keep saying this, but your conclusion rests entirely what the ratio is. If it's twice as many infections, with half the hospitalisation rate, then nothing has changed.
    Unfortunately the number doesn't stay constant. If Neil Ferguson's estimate today is right, if the number of Omicron infections is twice as many on a given day, it will be 14 times as many a week later.
    Well the current number is 1/32nd of the delta total so there's plenty of doubling slack in the system. And anyone who thinks it's going to keep doubling forever has not been paying attention.
    Indeed, they said that about Delta, that it would double until we got to 200-300k cases per day and 2000-3000 hospitalisations per day. Yet that never happened.
    Largely because vaccination reduced the susceptible population so that the R number fell to about one.

    What do you suppose is going to reduce the susceptible population drastically for Omicron in the next month?
    Vaccination probably. Cases in South Africa appear to have peaked and not managed to spread beyond the young.
    And if we go to plan B, and cases fall, that will of course be "thanks to plan B".
    We just need to vaccinate vaccinate vaccinate. That always was, and continues to be, the way out.
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    "I'm sorry... But there was no party..." So what's he apologising for?
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    So he is apologising that the clip was leaked. But there was no party and no rules were broken. Now the cabinet secretary will have to investigate and how dare anyone say anything until he reports back in 2029.

    Thats absolutely not going to cut it.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    "I'm sorry... But there was no party..." So what's he apologising for?

    That's not what he said.
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    HYUFD said:

    Boris tells the Commons if it turns out attendees at the Downing Street party last year broke lockdown rules in force then they will face disciplinary action.

    He confirms he did not attend the party

    He did not confirm that.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited December 2021

    maaarsh said:

    Foxy said:

    maaarsh said:

    MaxPB said:

    maaarsh said:

    Chris said:

    maaarsh said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's even more stupid is that today we actually had pretty good information on the level of immunity escape that Omicron has, it's much better than was initially feared with two and three doses of vaccine or natural immunity providing a pretty big shield against severe disease. I simply don't see what Plan B achieves in a largely vaccinated or naturally immune population.

    Because very high transmission and not as high health impacts still creates a tidal wave of people sick and in hospital and dying. The scenario seems to be that fewer people will get really sick from Omicron than Delta, but if as transmittable as suggested there will be a lot of them.
    You keep saying this, but your conclusion rests entirely what the ratio is. If it's twice as many infections, with half the hospitalisation rate, then nothing has changed.
    Unfortunately the number doesn't stay constant. If Neil Ferguson's estimate today is right, if the number of Omicron infections is twice as many on a given day, it will be 14 times as many a week later.
    Well the current number is 1/32nd of the delta total so there's plenty of doubling slack in the system. And anyone who thinks it's going to keep doubling forever has not been paying attention.
    Indeed, they said that about Delta, that it would double until we got to 200-300k cases per day and 2000-3000 hospitalisations per day. Yet that never happened. Now we go into the Omicron wave with average case severity down significantly because of vaccines and prior infection, this is nothing more than a plan to divert attention away from the Xmas party.
    The scary thing is how would new restrictions ever get released? We're not waiting for vaccines, we're not waiting for hospital numbers to decline - there will never be a non arbitrary time to remove restrictions which were created arbitrarily.
    I am not advocating another lockdown, but what you say is not true. The first wave abated by June 2020, with no vaccines for another 6 months.

    It is the nature of pandemic waves that they peak and then decline.
    My point is that there isn't a pandemic wave (of hospitalisations) triggering this. I appreciate the current covid levels in hospitals aren't making your life any easier, but it's 6k in England vs 34k at peak, and it's not rising yet. If you lockdown before a wave starts, and it never comes, when and why do you unlock.
    Admission are beginning to rise....

    image
    This is actually a social emergency as well as a democratic emergency. To have any public consensus on what measures need to be applied, at all, from the very mildest to the most severe, he needs to go.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    His only move tbh.

    But not sure saying that he was clueless about his own government's activities is a winning one.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I can't really see a good way out of this for the Tories.

    What a mess.

    Boris gets pushed out.
    And the Tories probably face a decade or more in opposition.

    Removing proven election winners rarely works. After forcing Thatcher out the Tories lost 3 out of 4 of the next general elections, after Blair went Labour has lost 4 General elections in a row.

    There is a reason non Tories want Boris out as he is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and also the leader with most appeal to the RedWall. Remove him and Starmer's job becomes easier
    I concur.

    Keep Boris. Please.
    HYUFD as tone death as ever is see.

    HYUFD - I’ve voted conservative. Consistently. Not anymore.

    And there’s plenty more who’ll do the same until Bojo is gone. It was funny when he was mayor and plummeting down zip wires. It stopped being funny when he became prime minister
    Do you live in a RedWall seat or seat in the top 100 Labour targets or a seat in the top 50 LD targets? If not then your opinion does not really matter under FPTP, your seat will stay Tory or Labour anyway however you vote
    I live in a Red Wall seat. 3 Cyclefree family votes.

    I look forward to my opinion now mattering to the Tory party.
    Did you vote Tory in 2019? No.

    Your opinion only matters if you not only live in those seats but voted for the Tory MP in 2019 too
    Bullshit!

    Everyone has a vote and everybody's votes matters. Everyone starts from zero votes when they get counted.

    If anyone's vote didn't matter it'd be yours as someone who never changes how they vote and lives in a safe seat and can be completely taken for granted.
    Under FPTP it doesn't matter if you win a seat by 80-20 or 60-40 or 50-30-20.

    This creates an unhealthy set of incentives for the parties to prioritise only that small number of constituencies that are currently competitive.

    It also creates an unhealthy set of incentives for the voters to vote negatively against things, rather than positively for things, and this means that weak candidates can prosper where they wear the right colour of rosette.

    A number of alternative voting systems, like STV, or open-list PR, solve these and other problems. Obviously we wouldn't want to use some abomination of a closed list PR system.
    Out of curiosity any idea what proportion of seats have never changed hands from 1992 to today? Ie covering both Labour gaining power last time they did, and the Tories doing so, to date.

    People talk about "safe seats" but the reality is the number of constituencies that can change are a lot larger than people realise.

    If we only relied upon the swing seats of the past then the Conservatives would never have bothered campaigning in seats like Leigh last election, would they?
    Thirty years is a long time to wait for, possibly, a change of party. I know that no seat I've voted in has ever changed hands at an election in which I've voted, nor even looked close, and that's been four different seats in six different general elections.

    A lot of the time when a seat does change hands it has been because of "demographic change" - so different voters living there, which means that people's personal experience of being able to create change is even lower than looking at the seats would suggest.
    If a seat doesn't change hands that simply means the voters there haven't changed their minds. There's nothing wrong with that.
    Unless it stays Conservative next time after years of Johnson's bullshit - there's an awful lot wrong with that.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896
    Stocky said:

    maaarsh said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's even more stupid is that today we actually had pretty good information on the level of immunity escape that Omicron has, it's much better than was initially feared with two and three doses of vaccine or natural immunity providing a pretty big shield against severe disease. I simply don't see what Plan B achieves in a largely vaccinated or naturally immune population.

    Because very high transmission and not as high health impacts still creates a tidal wave of people sick and in hospital and dying. The scenario seems to be that fewer people will get really sick from Omicron than Delta, but if as transmittable as suggested there will be a lot of them.
    You keep saying this, but your conclusion rests entirely what the ratio is. If it's twice as many infections, with half the hospitalisation rate, then nothing has changed.
    If Omicron is very dangerous we need to protect the NHS.
    If Omicron in not so dangerous we need to protect the NHS.

    Must logically be a sweet spot somewhere in between - or are we being run the NHS now?
    Yes, the UK is now basically an NHS with a country attached.

    And the rest of the developed world (apart from the US) wondering why the hell they do it like that.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,525
    I'm apparently in Labour's 90th target - swing required is allegedly 7760 votes.

    In reality Lab are sunk, and it is a Con / Ind marginal.

    Cons already lost any chance of my vote by canning HS2 NE, which was one of my redlines.
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    "I'm sorry... But there was no party..." So what's he apologising for?

    That staff should make jokes about having one even though they didn't have one.

    Yeh. Right.
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    Those of us in the David Gauke sort of Tory world are sitting on the sidelines and ordering popcorn. We're also missing Ken Clarke's comments too...

    I have popcorn if that helps.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    Oh god Starmer what a useless twat and he hasn't even started speaking.
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    weak, weak, weak from Boris.

    Not good enough
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    eekeek Posts: 24,979
    TOPPING said:

    His only move tbh.

    But not sure saying that he was clueless about his own government's activities is a winning one.

    It explains how the dogs took priority over Afghans we employed...
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    edited December 2021
    If a photo emerges now of Johnson at that party he is done. Gone. Finished.

    He must be pretty sure there isn't one.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,233
    Chris said:

    MaxPB said:

    maaarsh said:

    Chris said:

    maaarsh said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's even more stupid is that today we actually had pretty good information on the level of immunity escape that Omicron has, it's much better than was initially feared with two and three doses of vaccine or natural immunity providing a pretty big shield against severe disease. I simply don't see what Plan B achieves in a largely vaccinated or naturally immune population.

    Because very high transmission and not as high health impacts still creates a tidal wave of people sick and in hospital and dying. The scenario seems to be that fewer people will get really sick from Omicron than Delta, but if as transmittable as suggested there will be a lot of them.
    You keep saying this, but your conclusion rests entirely what the ratio is. If it's twice as many infections, with half the hospitalisation rate, then nothing has changed.
    Unfortunately the number doesn't stay constant. If Neil Ferguson's estimate today is right, if the number of Omicron infections is twice as many on a given day, it will be 14 times as many a week later.
    Well the current number is 1/32nd of the delta total so there's plenty of doubling slack in the system. And anyone who thinks it's going to keep doubling forever has not been paying attention.
    Indeed, they said that about Delta, that it would double until we got to 200-300k cases per day and 2000-3000 hospitalisations per day. Yet that never happened.
    Largely because vaccination reduced the susceptible population so that the R number fell to about one.

    What do you suppose is going to reduce the susceptible population drastically for Omicron in the next month?
    I receive my third dose this evening. The more people who do the same the more immunity Omnicron will be faced with, and the less people will need hospital treatment.

    We have vaccines. They work. We concentrate on using the vaccines and we can reduce both the health harms from Omnicron, and the social and economic harms from social restrictions, whether government or self imposed.
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    Wowsers. This is the weakest defence imaginable. "I know nothing, but there was NO PARTY. Once the cabinet secretary investigates I will sack people if it did take place"
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    If a photo emerges now of Johnson at that party he is done. Gone. Finished.

    He must be pretty sure there isn't one.

    Would be perfectly timed if one was released at 12:30. ;)
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    Sunak is looking distinctly edgy to me.
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    Starmers Good here.

    People which play by the rules have given up so much.
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    If a photo emerges now of Johnson at that party he is done. Gone. Finished.

    He must be pretty sure there isn't one.

    There is one. The same people who held on until the worst possible time to leak the Stratton idiocy will then leak him on the piss.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377
    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    maaarsh said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's even more stupid is that today we actually had pretty good information on the level of immunity escape that Omicron has, it's much better than was initially feared with two and three doses of vaccine or natural immunity providing a pretty big shield against severe disease. I simply don't see what Plan B achieves in a largely vaccinated or naturally immune population.

    Because very high transmission and not as high health impacts still creates a tidal wave of people sick and in hospital and dying. The scenario seems to be that fewer people will get really sick from Omicron than Delta, but if as transmittable as suggested there will be a lot of them.
    You keep saying this, but your conclusion rests entirely what the ratio is. If it's twice as many infections, with half the hospitalisation rate, then nothing has changed.
    If Omicron is very dangerous we need to protect the NHS.
    If Omicron in not so dangerous we need to protect the NHS.

    Must logically be a sweet spot somewhere in between - or are we being run the NHS now?
    Yes, the UK is now basically an NHS with a country attached.

    And the rest of the developed world (apart from the US) wondering why the hell they do it like that.
    Numbers of developed countries are locking down in the face of a surge in COVID. To prevent their health systems being overwhelmed.
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    Hushed silence
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    pingping Posts: 3,731
    We are all Trisha
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    RobD said:

    If a photo emerges now of Johnson at that party he is done. Gone. Finished.

    He must be pretty sure there isn't one.

    Would be perfectly timed if one was released at 12:30. ;)
    12:01 would surely have been the perfect time if someone had one. 😉
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    If a photo emerges now of Johnson at that party he is done. Gone. Finished.

    He must be pretty sure there isn't one.

    There is one. The same people who held on until the worst possible time to leak the Stratton idiocy will then leak him on the piss.
    Na, you don't know that for sure.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    Dear oh dear, Boris is absolutely terrible here.

    Time to get rid methinks!
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    f**king Hell Boris is shameless..
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    Brazen liars don't know when to stop.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021

    If a photo emerges now of Johnson at that party he is done. Gone. Finished.

    He must be pretty sure there isn't one.

    If I had to guess what's happened is Boris probably said something like well folks you have all been working jolly hard, now we can't have a Christmas party, but if the ball was to come out of the back of the scrum when I wasn't here, a few drinks and nibbles had already been ordered and it would be a shame for them to go to waste.... nudge nudge wink wink....vroom vroom...

    So he is then stuck because he wasn't there, but if he throws people under the bus, they will say he egged them on.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926

    If a photo emerges now of Johnson at that party he is done. Gone. Finished.

    He must be pretty sure there isn't one.

    Google timelines or the apple equivalent will know.
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    Body language on the Tory benches is something to see. Shellshock.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    Wowsers. This is the weakest defence imaginable. "I know nothing, but there was NO PARTY. Once the cabinet secretary investigates I will sack people if it did take place"

    Oh no, not an "investigation by the cabinet secretary". Truly pathetic.
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    RobD said:

    If a photo emerges now of Johnson at that party he is done. Gone. Finished.

    He must be pretty sure there isn't one.

    There is one. The same people who held on until the worst possible time to leak the Stratton idiocy will then leak him on the piss.
    Na, you don't know that for sure.
    For sure? No. On the balance of probabilities? Yes.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,586

    IshmaelZ said:

    LD 11/10 in NS now. Doesn't look value, but in a couple of hours it might retrospectively do

    Looks like massive value to me.

    They should be heavy odds-on favourites. I don't see any possible way that the Tories win this seat in a mid-term by-election mired in scandal.

    I wouldn't turn out to vote for this shower of shite. Who would?
    Well there was one guy on R5 this morning who called in to opine that it was all just Labour point scoring, and all is fine.
    So there's that.
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    RobD said:

    "I'm sorry... But there was no party..." So what's he apologising for?

    That's not what he said.
    Er he did. He apologised. And then said there had been no party. Are we watching the same thing?
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,258
    Very telling that Rishi Sunak hung his head when Johnson tried to wriggle out of the Trisha moment.

    Damning. Absolutely damning.
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    When I asked one senior Tory source why Downing Street kept denying the party happened or at least set out what they think did happen- they said very simply- “because they thought they’d get away with it”.

    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1468554282924445710
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,586
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I can't really see a good way out of this for the Tories.

    What a mess.

    Boris gets pushed out.
    And the Tories probably face a decade or more in opposition.

    Removing proven election winners rarely works. After forcing Thatcher out the Tories lost 3 out of 4 of the next general elections, after Blair went Labour has lost 4 General elections in a row.

    There is a reason non Tories want Boris out as he is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and also the leader with most appeal to the RedWall. Remove him and Starmer's job becomes easier
    I concur.

    Keep Boris. Please.
    HYUFD as tone death as ever is see.

    HYUFD - I’ve voted conservative. Consistently. Not anymore.

    And there’s plenty more who’ll do the same until Bojo is gone. It was funny when he was mayor and plummeting down zip wires. It stopped being funny when he became prime minister
    Do you live in a RedWall seat or seat in the top 100 Labour targets or a seat in the top 50 LD targets? If not then your opinion does not really matter under FPTP, your seat will stay Tory or Labour anyway however you vote
    I live in a Red Wall seat. 3 Cyclefree family votes.

    I look forward to my opinion now mattering to the Tory party.
    Did you vote Tory in 2019? No.

    Your opinion only matters if you not only live in those seats but voted for the Tory MP in 2019 too
    I'm looking forward to your admitting after the next election that your opinion matters not one jot.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,217
    edited December 2021
    Here we go. Its all Labour's fault. Starmer is muddying the water and confusing the public. He's actually going on about people following the rules. Its a red rag to a very angry bull...
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    It’s difficult to know who to believe; the staffers who assured Johnson no party took place or the ones who were privately joking about it taking place at the time.

    https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1468554281112453124
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    I wonder which journalists were at this party, squeaky bum time for them too....
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,994

    *Rimshot*

    Sir Keir Starmer: "It's obvious what happened. Even Ant & Dec are ahead of the Prime Minister on this."

    Hang on, I suddenly feel a need to support the Prime Minister ... ;)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    RobD said:

    "I'm sorry... But there was no party..." So what's he apologising for?

    That's not what he said.
    Er he did. He apologised. And then said there had been no party. Are we watching the same thing?
    Watch it again. He didn't say that.
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    I bet this is how Boris Johnson denied all those affairs to Marina Wheeler.

    Do you think he accused her of playing politics?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    maaarsh said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's even more stupid is that today we actually had pretty good information on the level of immunity escape that Omicron has, it's much better than was initially feared with two and three doses of vaccine or natural immunity providing a pretty big shield against severe disease. I simply don't see what Plan B achieves in a largely vaccinated or naturally immune population.

    Because very high transmission and not as high health impacts still creates a tidal wave of people sick and in hospital and dying. The scenario seems to be that fewer people will get really sick from Omicron than Delta, but if as transmittable as suggested there will be a lot of them.
    You keep saying this, but your conclusion rests entirely what the ratio is. If it's twice as many infections, with half the hospitalisation rate, then nothing has changed.
    If Omicron is very dangerous we need to protect the NHS.
    If Omicron in not so dangerous we need to protect the NHS.

    Must logically be a sweet spot somewhere in between - or are we being run the NHS now?
    Yes, the UK is now basically an NHS with a country attached.

    And the rest of the developed world (apart from the US) wondering why the hell they do it like that.
    Numbers of developed countries are locking down in the face of a surge in COVID. To prevent their health systems being overwhelmed.
    Don't do that! Let people enjoy their "nhs with a country attached" in peace.
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    Starmer was very forensic and frankly it was simply 6 - 0 to him
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    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    Well. I must say that tuning in today, the one who is acting like Prime Minister is the one asking the questions, not answering.
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    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    LD 11/10 in NS now. Doesn't look value, but in a couple of hours it might retrospectively do

    Looks like massive value to me.

    They should be heavy odds-on favourites. I don't see any possible way that the Tories win this seat in a mid-term by-election mired in scandal.

    I wouldn't turn out to vote for this shower of shite. Who would?
    Well there was one guy on R5 this morning who called in to opine that it was all just Labour point scoring, and all is fine.
    So there's that.
    HYUFD?

    Or are there two people who think like that?

    Boris making the best of a very bad situation here now with the apology and investigation, but the whole situation is shambolic.

    Still, when in a hole, stop digging. At least he's not made the situation worse, but it is a shambles.
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    Boris is floundering here. Casting around anything like a drowning man.
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    I bet this is how Boris Johnson denied all those affairs to Marina Wheeler.

    Do you think he accused her of playing politics?
    I was just getting close with voters, stop playing politics.
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    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    This was always going to be a tough session for Boris. But it’s hard to see how it could have gone worse. He looks broken. In contrast Starmer is putting in one of his best performances. Utterly brutal.
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    Starmer was very good but if I were him I'd have asked at least one question on a different topic, just to armour against the playing politics jibe.
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    I told you not to misunderestimate Starmer.

    He's a top lawyer and lawyers are awesome.

    Who appears to have hired a new comms person to help prep the PMQs, judging by the 'Ant and Dec' zinger.

    Cut through.
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    Starmer was very forensic and frankly it was simply 6 - 0 to him

    Ah come on. Liar dug himself in so deeply that surely he gets a negative score...
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    Starmer was very forensic and frankly it was simply 6 - 0 to him

    Dunno about 6-0. It was an open goal, but he didn't miss, did he.
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    Boris's post-sixth question rant about drugs seemed misplaced. Did CCHQ expect Starmer to raise a drugs story?
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Starmer was very forensic and frankly it was simply 6 - 0 to him

    He done good

    I was thinking 3 party, 3 kabul, but he was right to go all 6 on party
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,174

    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    LD 11/10 in NS now. Doesn't look value, but in a couple of hours it might retrospectively do

    Looks like massive value to me.

    They should be heavy odds-on favourites. I don't see any possible way that the Tories win this seat in a mid-term by-election mired in scandal.

    I wouldn't turn out to vote for this shower of shite. Who would?
    Well there was one guy on R5 this morning who called in to opine that it was all just Labour point scoring, and all is fine.
    So there's that.
    HYUFD?

    Or are there two people who think like that?

    Boris making the best of a very bad situation here now with the apology and investigation, but the whole situation is shambolic.

    Still, when in a hole, stop digging. At least he's not made the situation worse, but it is a shambles.
    Indeed, I wasn't expecting an apology! Sack Stratton and that'll be an end to it all.

    Johnson can reward himself with and hour or two of campaign dressing up for nipping that problem in the bud.
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    By far Starmer's best performance in the Commons.

    PM in 2024.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Bo-J's at the wheel
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    LD 11/10 in NS now. Doesn't look value, but in a couple of hours it might retrospectively do

    Looks like massive value to me.

    They should be heavy odds-on favourites. I don't see any possible way that the Tories win this seat in a mid-term by-election mired in scandal.

    I wouldn't turn out to vote for this shower of shite. Who would?
    Well there was one guy on R5 this morning who called in to opine that it was all just Labour point scoring, and all is fine.
    So there's that.
    HYUFD?

    Or are there two people who think like that?

    Boris making the best of a very bad situation here now with the apology and investigation, but the whole situation is shambolic.

    Still, when in a hole, stop digging. At least he's not made the situation worse, but it is a shambles.
    Indeed, I wasn't expecting an apology! Sack Stratton and that'll be an end to it all.

    Johnson can reward himself with and hour or two of campaign dressing up for nipping that problem in the bud.
    Stratton long gone, mate
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Catching up late. Looks promising. The statement was very weak.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    edited December 2021

    I wonder which journalists were at this party, squeaky bum time for them too....

    The Sun had a big old knees up too apparently, which is why they're leading on the weather. The Telegraph is part of the same incestuous cabal that includes the speccie and so forth, all besties with No 10 I think.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,258
    That was shocking. I expected a rough ride but it was something beyond.

    Obviously the internal enquiry is a classic Johnson moment of distancing himself in order to throw the perps under the bus. On this he has form. But it just leaves the ludicrous notion that having now admitted to the party he knew nothing about it.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2021

    I told you not to misunderestimate Starmer.

    He's a top lawyer and lawyers are awesome.

    Who appears to have hired a new comms person to help prep the PMQs, judging by the 'Ant and Dec' zinger.

    Cut through.
    I thought that was poor. He can't deliver a joke. Cross examining the guilty is where his expertise are.

    So only question now, Boris to step down when?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,610
    Johnson in serious trouble for the first time.
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    Blackford literally calling out Tory MPs. They sit there largely silent...
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,432
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    LD 11/10 in NS now. Doesn't look value, but in a couple of hours it might retrospectively do

    Looks like massive value to me.

    They should be heavy odds-on favourites. I don't see any possible way that the Tories win this seat in a mid-term by-election mired in scandal.

    I wouldn't turn out to vote for this shower of shite. Who would?
    Well there was one guy on R5 this morning who called in to opine that it was all just Labour point scoring, and all is fine.
    So there's that.
    Oh? What does HYUFD sound like? Cockney geezer or the softer rural Essex burr? :wink:
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,586

    Urgh I just bought panto tickets

    Oh no, you didn't ?
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    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    LD 11/10 in NS now. Doesn't look value, but in a couple of hours it might retrospectively do

    Looks like massive value to me.

    They should be heavy odds-on favourites. I don't see any possible way that the Tories win this seat in a mid-term by-election mired in scandal.

    I wouldn't turn out to vote for this shower of shite. Who would?
    Well there was one guy on R5 this morning who called in to opine that it was all just Labour point scoring, and all is fine.
    So there's that.
    HYUFD?

    Or are there two people who think like that?

    Boris making the best of a very bad situation here now with the apology and investigation, but the whole situation is shambolic.

    Still, when in a hole, stop digging. At least he's not made the situation worse, but it is a shambles.
    Indeed, I wasn't expecting an apology! Sack Stratton and that'll be an end to it all.

    Johnson can reward himself with and hour or two of campaign dressing up for nipping that problem in the bud.
    Stratton long gone, mate
    She's still on the payroll. £120k a year iirc.

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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,432

    Clearly Starmer would be the better PM, this is clearly not in doubt to anyone sane

    I'm calling for Boris to go, but I still doubt that.

    That's like saying clearly a shit sandwich is better than shit on toast.

    Starmer's answer to everything for the past two years is to lock us up. He can piss right off too, if the answer is Starmer you're asking the wrong question.
    Quote: Starmer's answer to everything for the past two years is to lock us up.


    What else would you expect of a prosecuting barrister?
    You'd hope the years in human rights would push him the other way, though...
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    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    How to interpret Sunak’s body language and face? Shame because he was involved? Or shame that he’s the next most senior member of this government?

    If the latter, then i think bojo could be done by next weekend with a coronation given the state of play on covid. If the former, they’ll all go down together on the same sinking ship.
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    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder which journalists were at this party, squeaky bum time for them too....

    The Sun had a big old knees up too apparently, which is why they're leading on the weather. The Telegraph is part of the same incestuous cabal that includes the speccie and so forth, all besties with No 10 I think.
    A metropolitan populist elite?
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sunak nodding enthusiastically to Blackford!!!
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,720

    Boris's post-sixth question rant about drugs seemed misplaced. Did CCHQ expect Starmer to raise a drugs story?

    Makes one wonder what they were doing at that party, in fact.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718

    Blackford literally calling out Tory MPs. They sit there largely silent...

    I should think they'll be less likely to put pen to paper after being told to by that knob.
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    Johnson looks utterly broken. I almost feel sorry for him.
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    pingping Posts: 3,731
    Not convinced BJ is going any time soon.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    If a photo emerges now of Johnson at that party he is done. Gone. Finished.

    He must be pretty sure there isn't one.

    If I had to guess what's happened is Boris probably said something like well folks you have all been working jolly hard, now we can't have a Christmas party, but if the ball was to come out of the back of the scrum when I wasn't here, a few drinks and nibbles had already been ordered and it would be a shame for them to go to waste.... nudge nudge wink wink....vroom vroom...

    So he is then stuck because he wasn't there, but if he throws people under the bus, they will say he egged them on.
    The false fond intimacy is pretty strong here. The power of Brand Boris in action. Remember my test - does the post still flow if you insert 'good old' before the 'Boris'? If Yes - it's written by someone who has succumbed to the brand (supporter or not).

    Edit: Sorry, Francis, not picking on you. Happens all the time with many people and this is simply to illustrate. For general site educational purposes.
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    Starmer was very forensic and frankly it was simply 6 - 0 to him

    Dunno about 6-0. It was an open goal, but he didn't miss, did he.
    BoJo was broken before Starmer stood up. Wasn't there a mis-speak early on where he advised people to vote for a Labour council?

    How much of this can he take?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    edited December 2021
    From the BBC:
    Johnson continues to accuse the Labour leader of "playing politics", saying he has "muddied the waters" and "confused the public" during the pandemic.

    ??? Most of the public barely know Starmer from Adam. It's the Gov't they pay attention to for better or ill at times of national crisis.

    What a bizzare line.
This discussion has been closed.