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In North Shropshire the betting’s getting tighter – politicalbetting.com

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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,060
    TOPPING said:

    Yep the chances of Max just taking out Hamilton or them both and claiming the crown I would say are around 1,000=1.

    Not knowing anything about F1 I do appreciate that going very fast and trying a move that has to be *exactly* right to avoid serious injury, perhaps death, and collateral damage is a very high odds play.

    I think it would be quite easy. Just do it in a low speed corner; all he has to do is snap an LCA or debead a tyre. The hard part would be doing it in a manner that had plausible deniability.

    Senna did it to Prost at Suzuka...
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,784

    The comic phenomenon of the cycle lane that ends in a carefully calculated death trap is alive and well.

    The whole thing seems to have been designed by people who don't actual use bikes. As usual.

    LTN 1/20 is very much written by people who use bikes, and all new designs should be LTN 1/20-compliant. Unfortunately here in Oxford the council is putting in some 90s-style painted-lanes nonsense which is about as far from LTN 1/20 as it's possible to be. If you don't want your London lanes, can we have them? :smile:
    Southampton Bus Stop:



    Leeds Cycle Path with its own Street Light


  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    kjh said:

    I've probably been her harshest critic on this site down the years, but I have to say I agreed with every word I saw Theresa May say on the news last night. She put it very well and very eloquently so credit where credit is due. 👍

    What was she talking about Philip?
    Covid, see 18:01 yesterday: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/dec/06/uk-covid-live-boris-johnson-no-10-christmas-party-lockdown-rules-kit-malthouse-latest-updates-?page=with:block-61ae4eb88f08d58f647f7881#block-61ae4eb88f08d58f647f7881

    Former PM Theresa May warns against further Covid restrictions
    In the Commons Theresa May, the former prime minister, said it would be a mistake for the government to respond to every new variant by closing down the economy.

    The early indications of Omicron are that it is more transmissible but potentially leads to less serious illness than other variants. I understand that would be the normal progress of a virus. Variants will continue to appear year after year.

    When is the government going to accept that learning to live with Covid, which we will all have to do, means we will almost certainly have an annual vaccine and that we cannot respond to new variants by stopping and starting sectors of our economy which leads to businesses going under and jobs being lost?

    Javid replied:

    In terms of the severity of this, I think we shouldn’t jump to any conclusion, we just don’t have enough data.

    It is not going away ... for many, many years and perhaps it will lead to annual vaccinations, but we have to find ways to continue with life as normal.


    She is entirely and 100% correct.
    Not often I ager with Mrs T May, but hear she is correct.

    NPI including lockdowns, delay but do not stop infections, and therefor should only be used to prevent the heath system being over run, and then only to the minimum extent needed to do that, and then relaxed as quickly as possible.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    MattW said:

    The comic phenomenon of the cycle lane that ends in a carefully calculated death trap is alive and well.

    The whole thing seems to have been designed by people who don't actual use bikes. As usual.

    LTN 1/20 is very much written by people who use bikes, and all new designs should be LTN 1/20-compliant. Unfortunately here in Oxford the council is putting in some 90s-style painted-lanes nonsense which is about as far from LTN 1/20 as it's possible to be. If you don't want your London lanes, can we have them? :smile:
    Southampton Bus Stop:



    Leeds Cycle Path with its own Street Light


    That Leeds one... how many cyclists would really use that lane? I'd be on the road.
    It's an insult.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,784
    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:


    eek said:

    Farooq said:

    And now for something COMPLETELY different.

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1468134076716568577?s=21

    For a company like Inrix, cars are revenue generating to a much greater extent than bikes. The analytics involved in the motoring setor that flow into insurance, IoT applications (car, signals, traffic alerts), parking, charging, and so on make it very easy for an anti-bike bias to arrive fairly organically.
    Worth remembering the source of the study when assessing its reliability.
    Ironically the biggest reason for cars being so slow in London was demonstrated by TfL to be due to Uber (i.e. cars)
    In my part of London, the new bike lanes are hated by the cyclists. Because they have been shoved in without regard for anyone or anything. Including cyclists.

    Among other things, the bus stops are extremely... hmmmm. Because the bike lanes are completely segregated, you now have to cross the bike lane to an "island" to board a bus. The geniuses who did this used the zebra marking in the road for a zebra crossing. Except without actually lights. So this had led to a number of entertaining intersections between cyclists and elderly pedestrians.

    The buses, since they have nowhere to "pull over" to when stopping, literally stop in the traffic flow. Which stops all the traffic behind them. Strangely, several miles of road are now filled with cars crawling along, stopping every few minutes...
    Absolutely. Most of the stuff going in over the last 1-2 years is panicky tactical stuff; and even the best practice guidelines / designs are about 3 decades out of date because the underlying values are mistaken.

    But OTOH, the last serious lot of investment in cycling was probably in the 1920s/1930s or maybe the 1950s, so there's a lot to catch up on.

    The usual preference for bus stops aiui is to have the cycleway go behind the bus stop ("floating bus stop"), so people cross the bike lane in dribs and drabs as they arrive, rather than en masse at the time the bus arrives.
    A short vid about 10 types of bus stop bypass. The main thing for peds/cyclists is just to be a little patient.

    Buses stopping in the traffic lane, if a single lane 'cos the space has gone to people on foot and bike, is a good readjustment of priorities to get people out of their cars. They can wait or get a bike :smile: .

    The important thing is to separate motor vehicles from vulnerable road users.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZ0lT7KeRls
    Some decent designs there, but it seems to be all wide boulevards. Those designs aren't as available in narrower city streets with more frequent side roads.
    One criterion that is essential is that a bike on a main road should take priority over traffic on the side street. When you pavementise bike lanes, you end up with the bikes crossing the side road, which leads to lots of start-stop for cyclists. That sort of design is tiring and slows down bike journeys, sometimes quite dramatically. Or it encourages bikes into the motorised traffic so they have the priority, but that annoys car drivers who can't understand why cyclists are not using the bike lanes.
    Another basic is that it is the traffic that stops.

    They have just put that basic principle into the Highway Code, which is a strategic but long term win.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58021450#:~:text=New changes to the Highway,the transport secretary has announced.&text=The new code will also,travelling straight ahead at junctions.
  • Options

    Mr. Eagles, worth noting that while Abu Dhabi has sometimes been tricky as far as overtaking goes, the track has been modified to try and make that easier.

    That plays into Hamilton's hands.

    I feel fairly confident that if Hamilton tries to overtake Verstappen this weekend then they both crash out.
    Depends where / how. The last 6 weeks or so have seen Mercedes wring performance out of their worst car in years, and Red Bull struggle to keep the performance they had. If the Merc is faster on the straights as it has been then Hamilton should be able to pass easily.

    Its if we get into bends that it could be a problem. Neither driver gives an inch if they aren't forced to and I can quote you as many examples of Hamilton shutting people out as much as you can Verstappen doing it. Its why the battle has been so immense this season.

    Some responsibility has to go to the two team principles who act like spoiled children, and to Michael "Rule Book" Masi who in making it up as he goes along creates ambiguities that the teams and drivers pick at.

    If Hamilton wins it will be his biggest achievement. His driving has been immense this season and I like all the stuff he does that isn't driving. If Verstappen wins he also deserves it having been consistently rapid all year. I don't care which of them wins as long as it is clean.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,899

    Mr. Eagles, worth noting that while Abu Dhabi has sometimes been tricky as far as overtaking goes, the track has been modified to try and make that easier.

    That plays into Hamilton's hands.

    It's not just that - it was a very strong contender for most boring circuit on the calendar.
    Just possible that has changed a little - though still has a number of 90deg bends.

  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,663

    The comic phenomenon of the cycle lane that ends in a carefully calculated death trap is alive and well.

    The whole thing seems to have been designed by people who don't actual use bikes. As usual.

    LTN 1/20 is very much written by people who use bikes, and all new designs should be LTN 1/20-compliant. Unfortunately here in Oxford the council is putting in some 90s-style painted-lanes nonsense which is about as far from LTN 1/20 as it's possible to be. If you don't want your London lanes, can we have them? :smile:
    In Oxford the council has been dedicated to making things worse for many, many years. Bike lane implementation simply is a part of their skill set.

    Gloucester Green catch station deserves an award of some kind, for example.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,375
    Hmm. The tacit progressive alliance seems to be breaking down:

    https://labourlist.org/2021/12/tory-lead-in-north-shropshire-narrowed-to-seven-points-internal-polling-suggests/

    I have zilch inside info, but this makes me feel that a Tory hold is the most likely prospect.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,860
    BigRich said:

    kjh said:

    I've probably been her harshest critic on this site down the years, but I have to say I agreed with every word I saw Theresa May say on the news last night. She put it very well and very eloquently so credit where credit is due. 👍

    What was she talking about Philip?
    Covid, see 18:01 yesterday: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/dec/06/uk-covid-live-boris-johnson-no-10-christmas-party-lockdown-rules-kit-malthouse-latest-updates-?page=with:block-61ae4eb88f08d58f647f7881#block-61ae4eb88f08d58f647f7881

    Former PM Theresa May warns against further Covid restrictions
    In the Commons Theresa May, the former prime minister, said it would be a mistake for the government to respond to every new variant by closing down the economy.

    The early indications of Omicron are that it is more transmissible but potentially leads to less serious illness than other variants. I understand that would be the normal progress of a virus. Variants will continue to appear year after year.

    When is the government going to accept that learning to live with Covid, which we will all have to do, means we will almost certainly have an annual vaccine and that we cannot respond to new variants by stopping and starting sectors of our economy which leads to businesses going under and jobs being lost?

    Javid replied:

    In terms of the severity of this, I think we shouldn’t jump to any conclusion, we just don’t have enough data.

    It is not going away ... for many, many years and perhaps it will lead to annual vaccinations, but we have to find ways to continue with life as normal.


    She is entirely and 100% correct.
    Not often I ager with Mrs T May, but hear she is correct.

    NPI including lockdowns, delay but do not stop infections, and therefor should only be used to prevent the heath system being over run, and then only to the minimum extent needed to do that, and then relaxed as quickly as possible.
    The delay but do not stop point is crucial and needs to be made over and over again. Post-vaccination it's about timing rather than absolute risk.

    The only thing that would change the equation would be significant immune escape in relation to serious illness and death, with an adapted set of vaccines just around the corner. In which case buying some time until the vaccines arrive might make sense.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,971
    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    The comic phenomenon of the cycle lane that ends in a carefully calculated death trap is alive and well.

    The whole thing seems to have been designed by people who don't actual use bikes. As usual.

    LTN 1/20 is very much written by people who use bikes, and all new designs should be LTN 1/20-compliant. Unfortunately here in Oxford the council is putting in some 90s-style painted-lanes nonsense which is about as far from LTN 1/20 as it's possible to be. If you don't want your London lanes, can we have them? :smile:
    Southampton Bus Stop:



    Leeds Cycle Path with its own Street Light


    That Leeds one... how many cyclists would really use that lane? I'd be on the road.
    It's an insult.
    That’s just painting lines on the pavement, so they can report to someone that there’s a cycle lane.

    Maybe a politician promised x miles of new cycle lanes this year, but ran out of budget to do the job properly by actually remodelling the street furniture?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,899
    .

    TOPPING said:

    Yep the chances of Max just taking out Hamilton or them both and claiming the crown I would say are around 1,000=1.

    Not knowing anything about F1 I do appreciate that going very fast and trying a move that has to be *exactly* right to avoid serious injury, perhaps death, and collateral damage is a very high odds play.

    F1 cars are pretty safe these days.

    Romain Grosjean survived this last year with minor burns to his hands and feet.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToxQAn5iM7Q

    The Dutch shunt (sic) has been trying to crash into/murder Hamilton for the last few races.

    Qualifying is the most important thing this weekend. Hamilton gets P1 (and leads on the first lap) then he should win it.
    Honestly think this is a bit overblown. Both drivers their teams and their most hyper-partisan fans need to calm down. There is nothing black and white about this season with both drivers and teams pushing the envelope at different times.

    What we need is good honest hard racing. I have no problem with racers going for gaps even if its a full send - as long as they aren't Bottarse trying to demolish people its fine. Where we cross the line is straight up cheating like they all do in wqualifying trundling round dangerously, or Hamilton / Bottas on the go slow on formation laps or Hamilton and Verstappen both dicking around with the DRS line. Verstappen should not have been on the racing line and shouldn't have developed those twitches in right foot and left shoulder, but Hamilton should have just swept past.

    He was not trying to "murder" Hamilton, just as Hamilton was not trying to "murder" Vettel when he brake tested him in Baku that time. Everyone needs to calm down.

    As for Abu Dhabi, if Hamilton's car is genuinely faster these last few races then stick it on pole and drive away. No need to worry about on purpose crashes.

    Hamilton never brake tested Vettel, as the telemetry showed.
    You're like the NYT with Trump and Biden.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,484
    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    The comic phenomenon of the cycle lane that ends in a carefully calculated death trap is alive and well.

    The whole thing seems to have been designed by people who don't actual use bikes. As usual.

    LTN 1/20 is very much written by people who use bikes, and all new designs should be LTN 1/20-compliant. Unfortunately here in Oxford the council is putting in some 90s-style painted-lanes nonsense which is about as far from LTN 1/20 as it's possible to be. If you don't want your London lanes, can we have them? :smile:
    Southampton Bus Stop:



    Leeds Cycle Path with its own Street Light


    That Leeds one... how many cyclists would really use that lane? I'd be on the road.
    It's an insult.
    That’s just painting lines on the pavement, so they can report to someone that there’s a cycle lane.

    Maybe a politician promised x miles of new cycle lanes this year, but ran out of budget to do the job properly by actually remodelling the street furniture?
    They spent some money on a new bollard for the middle of the cycle lane to tell people it's a cycle lane.

    That takes some effort and dedication to pissing cyclists off.
  • Options

    Hmm. The tacit progressive alliance seems to be breaking down:

    https://labourlist.org/2021/12/tory-lead-in-north-shropshire-narrowed-to-seven-points-internal-polling-suggests/

    I have zilch inside info, but this makes me feel that a Tory hold is the most likely prospect.

    Looks that way. Sorry but the two parties need to actually start co-operating. I was an active part of trying to get co-operation in place during 2019 - we had our LD candidate in Stockton South openly endorse the Labour candidate as being best placed to keep the Tory out. The reciprocal backing out (in Lewes I think) was pulled by Labour HQ.

    Labour had a base in OB, LibDems the same in NS. Whilst I disagree with withdrawing candidates, there needs to be the tacit agreement about which seats are winnable. The problem with some of the Labour activists is they are stupid enough to think all seats are Labour's by rights.

    And then I expect the same in reverse up here. Alex Cole-Hamilton is a bit of a nobber foaming on about the evils of the SNP when the enemy is and remains the Tories. You can't stop the nippie juggernaut, but we can stop the Tories from wrecking places like Banff and Buchan then wanting support for doing so.
  • Options

    NEW THREAD

  • Options
    This is horrifying: “My colleagues and I eliminated thousands of Afghan friends of the UK at risk of murder from the evacuation list. We were instructed to do this due to lack of capacity to process people at the airport. This capacity was subsequently used to transport animals.”

    https://twitter.com/SaphiaFleury/status/1468143479305879559?s=20
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,899
    TimS said:

    BigRich said:

    kjh said:

    I've probably been her harshest critic on this site down the years, but I have to say I agreed with every word I saw Theresa May say on the news last night. She put it very well and very eloquently so credit where credit is due. 👍

    What was she talking about Philip?
    Covid, see 18:01 yesterday: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/dec/06/uk-covid-live-boris-johnson-no-10-christmas-party-lockdown-rules-kit-malthouse-latest-updates-?page=with:block-61ae4eb88f08d58f647f7881#block-61ae4eb88f08d58f647f7881

    Former PM Theresa May warns against further Covid restrictions
    In the Commons Theresa May, the former prime minister, said it would be a mistake for the government to respond to every new variant by closing down the economy.

    The early indications of Omicron are that it is more transmissible but potentially leads to less serious illness than other variants. I understand that would be the normal progress of a virus. Variants will continue to appear year after year.

    When is the government going to accept that learning to live with Covid, which we will all have to do, means we will almost certainly have an annual vaccine and that we cannot respond to new variants by stopping and starting sectors of our economy which leads to businesses going under and jobs being lost?

    Javid replied:

    In terms of the severity of this, I think we shouldn’t jump to any conclusion, we just don’t have enough data.

    It is not going away ... for many, many years and perhaps it will lead to annual vaccinations, but we have to find ways to continue with life as normal.


    She is entirely and 100% correct.
    Not often I ager with Mrs T May, but hear she is correct.

    NPI including lockdowns, delay but do not stop infections, and therefor should only be used to prevent the heath system being over run, and then only to the minimum extent needed to do that, and then relaxed as quickly as possible.
    The delay but do not stop point is crucial and needs to be made over and over again. Post-vaccination it's about timing rather than absolute risk.

    The only thing that would change the equation would be significant immune escape in relation to serious illness and death, with an adapted set of vaccines just around the corner. In which case buying some time until the vaccines arrive might make sense.
    Except that a combination of NPIs and vaccines appears to have worked extremely well in Japan, stopping the Delta wave in its tracks.
    The real problem with NPIs is when only half of the population follows them.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,882

    This is horrifying: “My colleagues and I eliminated thousands of Afghan friends of the UK at risk of murder from the evacuation list. We were instructed to do this due to lack of capacity to process people at the airport. This capacity was subsequently used to transport animals.”

    https://twitter.com/SaphiaFleury/status/1468143479305879559?s=20

    Denied at the time by Downing Street.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,882
    edited December 2021

    Hmm. The tacit progressive alliance seems to be breaking down:

    https://labourlist.org/2021/12/tory-lead-in-north-shropshire-narrowed-to-seven-points-internal-polling-suggests/

    I have zilch inside info, but this makes me feel that a Tory hold is the most likely prospect.

    Looks that way. Sorry but the two parties need to actually start co-operating. I was an active part of trying to get co-operation in place during 2019 - we had our LD candidate in Stockton South openly endorse the Labour candidate as being best placed to keep the Tory out. The reciprocal backing out (in Lewes I think) was pulled by Labour HQ.

    Labour had a base in OB, LibDems the same in NS. Whilst I disagree with withdrawing candidates, there needs to be the tacit agreement about which seats are winnable. The problem with some of the Labour activists is they are stupid enough to think all seats are Labour's by rights.

    And then I expect the same in reverse up here. Alex Cole-Hamilton is a bit of a nobber foaming on about the evils of the SNP when the enemy is and remains the Tories. You can't stop the nippie juggernaut, but we can stop the Tories from wrecking places like Banff and Buchan then wanting support for doing so.
    ACH must be an idiot if he thinks, in the Scottish context, that the enemy is the SNP.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,173
    I know:

    Adult females who prefer to be referred to as girls

    Adult females who prefer to be referred to as ladies

    Adult females who prefer to be referred to as women

    (I was often corrected by my mum as a boy, that all adult females should be referred to as ladies and not ‘woman’, as the latter sounded rude)

    Guess what? It’s yet another pointless diversion.

    Just try to be polite and charming and most women are happy with that.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,526
    Raab is such a liability, isn’t he? A shame the LibDems didn’t unseat him last time.
This discussion has been closed.