It's not mild if it's putting kids into hospital...
I just wonder if this 'genius move' of letting millions of kids in the UK be exposed to Delta is going to bite us on the ass down the line when it comes to Omicron, with reliance on so called immunity via exposure not holding up with this variant.
No. Even if there is significant reinfection, prior infection will tend to moderate severity. Besides, I think significant reinfection is overstating things. There has been very little reinfection with delta, so even if omicron is two or three times more able to do so, it’s still not huge. I’m not convinced by the belief that everyone in SA has had Covid argument. We’ve had this tried many times and the antibody evidence doesn’t stack up. It’s pretty certain now that we will see omicron gaining traction here. What effect that has on severe illness, hospitalisation and death is really anyone’s guess right now. My guess is not too much, but I am likely going to be wrong.
There are two versions of “covid is here forever”.
Version 1 is that it ceases being a major public health concern after this winter and floats around like influenza or pneumonia, competing for the same victims, while being annoying or barely noticeable for everyone else.
Version 2 is that we’re locked in a continual race between viral evolution and science, and that 2021 is more or less as good as things get until we get another major scientific breakthrough. There are no doubt many already falling into an almost existential depression at the possibility this might be true.
The Pfizer retroviral (Paxlovid) reduces hospitalisation from Covid by 90%. Once that is being produced in mega quantities, that will make a massive difference.
(Am I the only person who's a little... surprised... that Pfizer has managed to produce the first vaccine to market and the first really successful treatment.)
With cases of the Omicron variant now recorded from New York to Hawaii, health officials across the United States say that community spread of the virus is inevitable, with one case already traveling from an anime convention in New York City to Minnesota.
Jeffrey Barrett @jcbarret · 1h So my main take-away is that growth looks fast in a country with immunity mostly from vaccines, rather than previous infection (and with a big ongoing Delta wave). We'll know a lot more soon, but this is not reassuring.
But… we don’t care if it causes cases, only if that leads to widespread infirmity. And that we still do not know but have reason for optimism
If cases shoot up to large numbers (as per other waves) then I strongly suspect the SAGE-Cabinet Office-Dept Health triumvirate will panic and force lockdown on Johnson anyway.
But I remain optimistic that this will amount to next to nothing in the end. Maybe I am deluded.
I'm quite confident that between Javid and Sunak there'd be much more resistance to another lockdown again than there was when the furlough scheme was still running and HandsFaceArse was in charge of Health.
There's no point having a post-vaccines lockdown. The original lockdowns bought time for the vaccines, but what's the point now?
I agree on Javid. I think he far less likely to reach for the lockdown lever than Hancock, who I have a very low opinion of frankly. But I still think the pressure will be hard for Javid to resist when CMO is waving his hands around in alarm shouting 'look at the case numbers'.
Hope you are right.
Unless the omi-bastard totally or almost totally evades the vax we need to hold our nerve and not lockdown again.
It's not mild if it's putting kids into hospital...
I just wonder if this 'genius move' of letting millions of kids in the UK be exposed to Delta is going to bite us on the ass down the line when it comes to Omicron, with reliance on so called immunity via exposure not holding up with this variant.
No. Even if there is significant reinfection, prior infection will tend to moderate severity. Besides, I think significant reinfection is overstating things. There has been very little reinfection with delta, so even if omicron is two or three times more able to do so, it’s still not huge. I’m not convinced by the belief that everyone in SA has had Covid argument. We’ve had this tried many times and the antibody evidence doesn’t stack up. It’s pretty certain now that we will see omicron gaining traction here. What effect that has on severe illness, hospitalisation and death is really anyone’s guess right now. My guess is not too much, but I am likely going to be wrong.
There are two versions of “covid is here forever”.
Version 1 is that it ceases being a major public health concern after this winter and floats around like influenza or pneumonia, competing for the same victims, while being annoying or barely noticeable for everyone else.
Version 2 is that we’re locked in a continual race between viral evolution and science, and that 2021 is more or less as good as things get until we get another major scientific breakthrough. There are no doubt many already falling into an almost existential depression at the possibility this might be true.
The Pfizer retroviral (Paxlovid) reduces hospitalisation from Covid by 90%. Once that is being produced in mega quantities, that will make a massive difference.
(Am I the only person who's a little... surprised... that Pfizer has managed to produce the first vaccine to market and the first really successful treatment.)
Pfizer is forecasting around 60m doses in 2022, and that’s with ramping up production ($bn plus manufacturing investment). That’s not enough.
Some claimed the pandemic was "over" in July - perhaps , perhaps not. I've yet to see any compelling evidence Omicron represents a serious risk to those double or triple vaccinated. I do accept for those who have eschewed vaccination, Omicron is serious but is that a reason to re-impose restrictions on the vast majority of the vaccinated?
Getting more people double and triple vaccinated seems the obvious course if Omicron is less of an impact among the vaccinated - we do need of course to continue to rigorously monitor the efficacy of vaccines and the development of the virus.
The Tory Christmas party is to go ahead. The Labour one has been cancelled.
If there is even one suspected case of infection from the party, never here the end of it.
Presumably everyone is going to get this thing eventually and covid will be with us forever? Do you suggest parties are banned forever more?
Not a all, i am very much in agreement. My point is how it will be reported. It won't need to be a Norwegian super spreader event for it to be reported as some scandal.
Some claimed the pandemic was "over" in July - perhaps , perhaps not. I've yet to see any compelling evidence Omicron represents a serious risk to those double or triple vaccinated. I do accept for those who have eschewed vaccination, Omicron is serious but is that a reason to re-impose restrictions on the vast majority of the vaccinated?
Getting more people double and triple vaccinated seems the obvious course if Omicron is less of an impact among the vaccinated - we do need of course to continue to rigorously monitor the efficacy of vaccines and the development of the virus.
The Tory Christmas party is to go ahead. The Labour one has been cancelled.
Labour have to be careful they are not seen as miseries given most people will go to a Christmas party this year
Absolutely. I am concerned they are framing themselves as the joyless and judgemental.
I wrote a blog about it, that I don't think is ageing that well at the moment! But I think it is definitely Tory tactics to paint Labour as the joyless and judgemental. I don't usually watch PMQs but I did this week, and was surprised that Boris was using a lot of the lines that I use on here, "Sir Keir would have us all locked up" etc
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
It's not mild if it's putting kids into hospital...
I just wonder if this 'genius move' of letting millions of kids in the UK be exposed to Delta is going to bite us on the ass down the line when it comes to Omicron, with reliance on so called immunity via exposure not holding up with this variant.
No. Even if there is significant reinfection, prior infection will tend to moderate severity. Besides, I think significant reinfection is overstating things. There has been very little reinfection with delta, so even if omicron is two or three times more able to do so, it’s still not huge. I’m not convinced by the belief that everyone in SA has had Covid argument. We’ve had this tried many times and the antibody evidence doesn’t stack up. It’s pretty certain now that we will see omicron gaining traction here. What effect that has on severe illness, hospitalisation and death is really anyone’s guess right now. My guess is not too much, but I am likely going to be wrong.
There are two versions of “covid is here forever”.
Version 1 is that it ceases being a major public health concern after this winter and floats around like influenza or pneumonia, competing for the same victims, while being annoying or barely noticeable for everyone else.
Version 2 is that we’re locked in a continual race between viral evolution and science, and that 2021 is more or less as good as things get until we get another major scientific breakthrough. There are no doubt many already falling into an almost existential depression at the possibility this might be true.
The Pfizer retroviral (Paxlovid) reduces hospitalisation from Covid by 90%. Once that is being produced in mega quantities, that will make a massive difference.
(Am I the only person who's a little... surprised... that Pfizer has managed to produce the first vaccine to market and the first really successful treatment.)
Pfizer is forecasting around 60m doses in 2022, and that’s with ramping up production ($bn plus manufacturing investment). That’s not enough.
Nowhere near. If it's three pills a day for five days, that's 15 pills per patient. Which means only 4 million people will get treated in 2022 by Paxlovid.
I'm a bit surprised their production is ramping that slowly, tbh.
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Most of UK is vaxxed.
It's like how most cases of Covid are now amongst the vaccinated. It's not news, or really a big deal. It would only be newsworthy if the vaccines supposedly had absolute 100% efficacy.
It's not mild if it's putting kids into hospital...
I just wonder if this 'genius move' of letting millions of kids in the UK be exposed to Delta is going to bite us on the ass down the line when it comes to Omicron, with reliance on so called immunity via exposure not holding up with this variant.
No. Even if there is significant reinfection, prior infection will tend to moderate severity. Besides, I think significant reinfection is overstating things. There has been very little reinfection with delta, so even if omicron is two or three times more able to do so, it’s still not huge. I’m not convinced by the belief that everyone in SA has had Covid argument. We’ve had this tried many times and the antibody evidence doesn’t stack up. It’s pretty certain now that we will see omicron gaining traction here. What effect that has on severe illness, hospitalisation and death is really anyone’s guess right now. My guess is not too much, but I am likely going to be wrong.
There are two versions of “covid is here forever”.
Version 1 is that it ceases being a major public health concern after this winter and floats around like influenza or pneumonia, competing for the same victims, while being annoying or barely noticeable for everyone else.
Version 2 is that we’re locked in a continual race between viral evolution and science, and that 2021 is more or less as good as things get until we get another major scientific breakthrough. There are no doubt many already falling into an almost existential depression at the possibility this might be true.
The Pfizer retroviral (Paxlovid) reduces hospitalisation from Covid by 90%. Once that is being produced in mega quantities, that will make a massive difference.
(Am I the only person who's a little... surprised... that Pfizer has managed to produce the first vaccine to market and the first really successful treatment.)
Pfizer is forecasting around 60m doses in 2022, and that’s with ramping up production ($bn plus manufacturing investment). That’s not enough.
Nowhere near. If it's three pills a day for five days, that's 15 pills per patient. Which means only 4 million people will get treated in 2022 by Paxlovid.
I'm a bit surprised their production is ramping that slowly, tbh.
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Considering ~90% of adults are vaccinated, that shouldn't be a shock.
For most people, that will be semantics not politics.
In any case, I'd argue a lot of people would still consider their lives to be affected if not disrupted by the virus. We can argue July 17th and the road to that point (albeit delayed) was the implementation of the policy to "live with" the virus and confront it with vaccination as the primary weapon.
In truth, most countries have gone down a similar route thanks to the vaccines.
I'm not against that as a political policy - indeed, I'd argue the resumption of "normal" life has allowed us an opportunity to see the genuine competence of the Government elected two years ago. I'm sure we'll see more examples of this competence in the months to come.
Until and unless there's compelling evidence Omicron represents a serious threat to the vaccinated, I agree we don't need to be too concerned. Yes, we must ensure as many as possible are given their booster vaccinations as quickly as possible and we must monitor the efficacy of the vaccines and the progress of the virus in the coming months.
The concern, however, is, even in limited numbers, Omicron will continue to put such an additional pressure on our hospital capacities that the thousands in dire need of non-Covid medical attention, let alone a normal winter's worth of illnesses, sprains and accidents will combine to create a real winter crisis in the NHS.
Lib Dems in By Elections - Win Big or Die Not Tryin'
It's working a treat mid-term.
It's not going to work come GE time though.
It never has done - even at the peak of the Party's strength it was probably competitive in no more than 75 seats.
Let's be honest - neither the Conservatives nor Labour campaign in every seat either. The election is therefore a series of skirmishes and in many areas not even that.
In East Ham, for example, the Conservative and LD efforts are token at best. Labour do a little canvassing and delivery but it's not the effort there would be in a marginal.
Sure. Generally we try to make sure everyone who wants to vote Labour has the opportunity and knows there's a candidate, but apart from that we pile into marginals. I spent the last election mostly in Portsmouth South, partly because I was so annoyed by the LibDem, previously 3rd on 17.3%, trying to persuade voters that only he could beat the Tories...in a seat held by Labour. That sort of outright cynicism needs to be avoided by both sides (I don't favour Labour saying only they can beat the Tories in North Shropshire either). Not least as it doesn't work... Back home in SW Surrey, we put up a token effort while the LibDems put up a spirited fight for Jeremy Hunt's seat, and why not?
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Considering ~90% of adults are vaccinated, that shouldn't be a shock.
No. It would be nice if there were even a hint of skew towards the unvaccinated, though.
"More than half" is an asininely uninformative statistic.
Jeffrey Barrett @jcbarret · 1h So my main take-away is that growth looks fast in a country with immunity mostly from vaccines, rather than previous infection (and with a big ongoing Delta wave). We'll know a lot more soon, but this is not reassuring.
But… we don’t care if it causes cases, only if that leads to widespread infirmity. And that we still do not know but have reason for optimism
Do we? There are stories from SA of it putting children in hospital.
Go back to previous new waves and there were stories as such. Delta was certainly linked to greater childhood issues at one stage. Data beats anecdote/anecdata every time.
The “highly transmissible” Omicron variant of coronavirus ripping through South Africa is putting disproportionately large numbers of children under 5 years old in hospitals, a top South African government medical adviser said Friday.
The alarming development raises the prospect of a new global battle cycle against the virus, given that the new variant has already spread to dozens of countries. The South African scientists also said the new variant was spreading much quicker than any previous wave of the coronavirus.
In a worrying virtual press conference, government adviser Waasila Jassat, speaking about the worst-affected area of Gauteng province (which includes the city of Johannesburg), said: “It’s clear in Gauteng, the week-on-week increase we’re seeing in cases and admissions is higher than we’ve seen it before. We’ve seen quite a sharp increase [in hospital admissions] across all age groups but particularly in the under 5s.”
She added: “The incidence in those under 5 is now second highest, second only to those over 60. The trend that we’re seeing now, that is different to what we’ve seen before, is a particular increase in hospital admissions in children under 5 years.
“We’ve always seen children not being very heavily affected by the COVID epidemic in the past, not having many admissions. In the third wave, we saw more admissions in young children under 5 and in teenagers, 15-19, and now, at the start of this fourth wave, we have seen quite a sharp increase across all age groups, but particularly in the under 5s.”
It's not mild if it's putting kids into hospital...
I just wonder if this 'genius move' of letting millions of kids in the UK be exposed to Delta is going to bite us on the ass down the line when it comes to Omicron, with reliance on so called immunity via exposure not holding up with this variant.
No. Even if there is significant reinfection, prior infection will tend to moderate severity. Besides, I think significant reinfection is overstating things. There has been very little reinfection with delta, so even if omicron is two or three times more able to do so, it’s still not huge. I’m not convinced by the belief that everyone in SA has had Covid argument. We’ve had this tried many times and the antibody evidence doesn’t stack up. It’s pretty certain now that we will see omicron gaining traction here. What effect that has on severe illness, hospitalisation and death is really anyone’s guess right now. My guess is not too much, but I am likely going to be wrong.
There are two versions of “covid is here forever”.
Version 1 is that it ceases being a major public health concern after this winter and floats around like influenza or pneumonia, competing for the same victims, while being annoying or barely noticeable for everyone else.
Version 2 is that we’re locked in a continual race between viral evolution and science, and that 2021 is more or less as good as things get until we get another major scientific breakthrough. There are no doubt many already falling into an almost existential depression at the possibility this might be true.
The Pfizer retroviral (Paxlovid) reduces hospitalisation from Covid by 90%. Once that is being produced in mega quantities, that will make a massive difference.
(Am I the only person who's a little... surprised... that Pfizer has managed to produce the first vaccine to market and the first really successful treatment.)
Pfizer is forecasting around 60m doses in 2022, and that’s with ramping up production ($bn plus manufacturing investment). That’s not enough.
Nowhere near. If it's three pills a day for five days, that's 15 pills per patient. Which means only 4 million people will get treated in 2022 by Paxlovid.
I'm a bit surprised their production is ramping that slowly, tbh.
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Considering ~90% of adults are vaccinated, that shouldn't be a shock.
It's not mild if it's putting kids into hospital...
I just wonder if this 'genius move' of letting millions of kids in the UK be exposed to Delta is going to bite us on the ass down the line when it comes to Omicron, with reliance on so called immunity via exposure not holding up with this variant.
No. Even if there is significant reinfection, prior infection will tend to moderate severity. Besides, I think significant reinfection is overstating things. There has been very little reinfection with delta, so even if omicron is two or three times more able to do so, it’s still not huge. I’m not convinced by the belief that everyone in SA has had Covid argument. We’ve had this tried many times and the antibody evidence doesn’t stack up. It’s pretty certain now that we will see omicron gaining traction here. What effect that has on severe illness, hospitalisation and death is really anyone’s guess right now. My guess is not too much, but I am likely going to be wrong.
There are two versions of “covid is here forever”.
Version 1 is that it ceases being a major public health concern after this winter and floats around like influenza or pneumonia, competing for the same victims, while being annoying or barely noticeable for everyone else.
Version 2 is that we’re locked in a continual race between viral evolution and science, and that 2021 is more or less as good as things get until we get another major scientific breakthrough. There are no doubt many already falling into an almost existential depression at the possibility this might be true.
Reinfections tend to mildness over time as the immune system learns to respond. Variants will break through the primary defence, but then get overwhelmed. Covid is not going away folks, but in a few years it will be more like other cold viruses, thanks to our repeated exposures. Already seeing that for breakthrough illness among the vaccinated where the main symptoms have changed.
Where are the data supporting that?
It’s partly why generally as you age you get less infections, at least until the immune system weakens with age. As a small child you get bugs every month, when you are in your forties it’s not uncommon to avoid getting ill for a whole year. No specific data for corona, buts how the body works in general.
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Considering ~90% of adults are vaccinated, that shouldn't be a shock.
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 1h Replying to @lewis_goodall From 7th December-9th January in Ireland nightclubs to close Social distancing in restaurants- table service only Masks worn when not at table Max of 50% capacity at cultural/sporting events Covid pass required for gyms Max of three households for indoor household mixing
Not exactly lockdown is it? Restrictions yes, but not lockdown. I see Pagel is all over it... Shecwould love it, just love it, if we did the same...
Breaking: Accused Oxford High School shooter Ethan Crumbley's parents, James and Jennifer Crumbley, have each been charged with four counts of homicide involuntary manslaughter. https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1466814510027755522
Seattle Times ($) - BREAKING NEWS State Supreme Court declines to redraw political maps, accepts redistricting commission’s work The Washington Supreme Court will not exercise its authority to redraw the state’s congressional and legislative district maps, leaving in place the work of the bipartisan redistricting commission. The decision lifts uncertainty over the new boundaries for the state’s 10 congressional districts and 49 legislative districts, which will be in place for the next decade.
SSI - the maps drawn (sort of) and approved in haste (but past legal deadline) are upheld. Which is bad news for Democrats in general, and for Democratic US Rep. Kim Schreier (D-WA) in the 8th congressional district, which loses its best Democratic area (Bellevue) and picks up GOP turf in exurban & rural Pierce and Snohomish counties.
Addendum - and Democratic notion that Democratic-oriented state supreme court would serve as backstop is proven a fallacy.
538 has the Commission plan more favourable for the Dems than the old map.
The toss-up is the 8th District whose Partisan lean remains exactly the same (at zero) despite significant boundary changes - ie the changes all precisely offset.
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Hardly surprising given the proportion of adults who are double jabbed.
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Considering ~90% of adults are vaccinated, that shouldn't be a shock.
The sample size is also tiny. 12 of 22 cases.
So 12 from ~90% vs 10 from ~10%
That's a massive skew towards the unvaccinated.
Wrong.
We don't know anyone's age so 69% (population, not adults ) is the correct percentage. So if vaccines are irrelevant you'd expect 22 x 69% or 15 vaccinees. 12 are deffo vaccinated, 2 unknown but at least one likely to be vaccinated (because 69%) so 13 or 14 out of 22 vs an expected 15 out of 22. Not great.
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Considering ~90% of adults are vaccinated, that shouldn't be a shock.
The sample size is also tiny. 12 of 22 cases.
So 12 from ~90% vs 10 from ~10%
That's a massive skew towards the unvaccinated.
Wrong.
We don't know anyone's age so 69% (population, not adults ) is the correct percentage. So if vaccines are irrelevant you'd expect 22 x 69% or 15 vaccinees. 12 are deffo vaccinated, 2 unknown but at least one likely to be vaccinated (because 69%) so 13 or 14 out of 22 vs an expected 15 out of 22. Not great.
We’ve not been told, but my suspicion is if any were children, we would have been told. Could be wrong.
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Considering ~90% of adults are vaccinated, that shouldn't be a shock.
The sample size is also tiny. 12 of 22 cases.
So 12 from ~90% vs 10 from ~10%
That's a massive skew towards the unvaccinated.
Wrong.
We don't know anyone's age so 69% (population, not adults ) is the correct percentage. So if vaccines are irrelevant you'd expect 22 x 69% or 15 vaccinees. 12 are deffo vaccinated, 2 unknown but at least one likely to be vaccinated (because 69%) so 13 or 14 out of 22 vs an expected 15 out of 22. Not great.
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Considering ~90% of adults are vaccinated, that shouldn't be a shock.
No. It would be nice if there were even a hint of skew towards the unvaccinated, though.
"More than half" is an asininely uninformative statistic.
12 of the 22 known cases up to 30 November had been fully vaccinated.
Total – second dose 46,462,638
UK Population 67.22 million
The expectation with 0 vaccine efficacy (Against infection) is that 69% of the 22, approx 15 people would have been affected...
Rate amongst vaccinated group = 12/(0.69*p) = 17.39/p Rate amongst unvaxxed group = 10/(0.31*p) = 32.26/p
(32.26 - 17.39)/32.26 = 46%
So Vaccine efficacy = 46%.
But 22 is a very small number of cases so You can't draw firm ANY statistical conclusions yet regarding vaccine efficacy.
Also you'd like to know how many of the 22 have been infected previously and so forth.
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Considering ~90% of adults are vaccinated, that shouldn't be a shock.
The sample size is also tiny. 12 of 22 cases.
So 12 from ~90% vs 10 from ~10%
That's a massive skew towards the unvaccinated.
Wrong.
We don't know anyone's age so 69% (population, not adults ) is the correct percentage. So if vaccines are irrelevant you'd expect 22 x 69% or 15 vaccinees. 12 are deffo vaccinated, 2 unknown but at least one likely to be vaccinated (because 69%) so 13 or 14 out of 22 vs an expected 15 out of 22. Not great.
We’ve not been told, but my suspicion is if any were children, we would have been told. Could be wrong.
“The Christmas party was held in a closed room but the guests reportedly mingled with other people in the restaurant after 10:30pm, when it turned into a nightclub.”
Assume few, if any, children were there, given it was a evening do that went on beyond 10.30pm, at which point the DJ started rinsing the place up with some pumping techno cuts. Again, I could be wrong.
The Omicron panic is really in full swing now. It’s thoroughly annoying how emotion and narrative seems to be driving everything inexorably towards restrictions (though a good buying opportunity on the stock markets).
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Considering ~90% of adults are vaccinated, that shouldn't be a shock.
No. It would be nice if there were even a hint of skew towards the unvaccinated, though.
"More than half" is an asininely uninformative statistic.
12 of the 22 known cases up to 30 November had been fully vaccinated.
Total – second dose 46,462,638
UK Population 67.22 million
The expectation with 0 vaccine efficacy (Against infection) is that 69% of the 22, approx 15 people would have been affected...
Rate amongst vaccinated group = 12/(0.69*p) = 17.39/p Rate amongst unvaxxed group = 10/(0.31*p) = 32.26/p
(32.26 - 17.39)/32.26 = 46%
So Vaccine efficacy = 46%.
But 22 is a very small number of cases so You can't draw firm ANY statistical conclusions yet regarding vaccine efficacy.
Also you'd like to know how many of the 22 have been infected previously and so forth.
Yes, and the smaller a number 22 is the more important it is to be accurate about how it is made up. Your figures are out because there are two unknown vacc status which you have arbitrarily stuck into unvacced when the probability is at least one of them is vacced.
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Considering ~90% of adults are vaccinated, that shouldn't be a shock.
The sample size is also tiny. 12 of 22 cases.
So 12 from ~90% vs 10 from ~10%
That's a massive skew towards the unvaccinated.
Wrong.
We don't know anyone's age so 69% (population, not adults ) is the correct percentage. So if vaccines are irrelevant you'd expect 22 x 69% or 15 vaccinees. 12 are deffo vaccinated, 2 unknown but at least one likely to be vaccinated (because 69%) so 13 or 14 out of 22 vs an expected 15 out of 22. Not great.
The older the population, the higher the vaccine efficacy estimate may well be.
If you take "population" to mean 12+, since you're sure (As may well be the case at this point) that 11 yrs and under have not had a chance to catch omicron the vaccine efficacy jumps from
((10/0.31) - (12/0.69))/(10/0.31) = 46%
to
((10/0.192) - (12/0.808))/(10/0.192) = 71%
But what was the mix of vaxxed and unvaxxed in that particular party ?
Noone really knows, and 22 cases is too small a number to do this sort of calculation on anyway.
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Considering ~90% of adults are vaccinated, that shouldn't be a shock.
The sample size is also tiny. 12 of 22 cases.
So 12 from ~90% vs 10 from ~10%
That's a massive skew towards the unvaccinated.
Wrong.
We don't know anyone's age so 69% (population, not adults ) is the correct percentage. So if vaccines are irrelevant you'd expect 22 x 69% or 15 vaccinees. 12 are deffo vaccinated, 2 unknown but at least one likely to be vaccinated (because 69%) so 13 or 14 out of 22 vs an expected 15 out of 22. Not great.
Double jabbed means 16+, surely?
Yes but so what?
Because it changes the denominator. You suggested we need to use whole population figures, @Malmesbury suggests we can rule out the kids as they are not double jabbed.
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Considering ~90% of adults are vaccinated, that shouldn't be a shock.
No. It would be nice if there were even a hint of skew towards the unvaccinated, though.
"More than half" is an asininely uninformative statistic.
12 of the 22 known cases up to 30 November had been fully vaccinated.
Total – second dose 46,462,638
UK Population 67.22 million
The expectation with 0 vaccine efficacy (Against infection) is that 69% of the 22, approx 15 people would have been affected...
Rate amongst vaccinated group = 12/(0.69*p) = 17.39/p Rate amongst unvaxxed group = 10/(0.31*p) = 32.26/p
(32.26 - 17.39)/32.26 = 46%
So Vaccine efficacy = 46%.
But 22 is a very small number of cases so You can't draw firm ANY statistical conclusions yet regarding vaccine efficacy.
Also you'd like to know how many of the 22 have been infected previously and so forth.
Yes, and the smaller a number 22 is the more important it is to be accurate about how it is made up. Your figures are out because there are two unknown vacc status which you have arbitrarily stuck into unvacced when the probability is at least one of them is vacced.
Actually you are wrong. Tiny sample size = huge uncertainty, therefore assigning very accurate percentages in terms of population vaccinate rates to that is flawed in the same way as say recording a known noisy measurment of distance to many decimal places.
Trying to garner anything really from 22 (or 24) samples is flawed from the get go.
The Omicron panic is really in full swing now. It’s thoroughly annoying how emotion and narrative seems to be driving everything inexorably towards restrictions (though a good buying opportunity on the stock markets).
Markets haven’t really dipped, at least not compared to earlier waves. There was a one day wobble since when the market has been reasonably optimistic.
Some travel firms have taken a hit, which is where the bargains are in an optimistic scenario.
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Considering ~90% of adults are vaccinated, that shouldn't be a shock.
The sample size is also tiny. 12 of 22 cases.
So 12 from ~90% vs 10 from ~10%
That's a massive skew towards the unvaccinated.
Wrong.
We don't know anyone's age so 69% (population, not adults ) is the correct percentage. So if vaccines are irrelevant you'd expect 22 x 69% or 15 vaccinees. 12 are deffo vaccinated, 2 unknown but at least one likely to be vaccinated (because 69%) so 13 or 14 out of 22 vs an expected 15 out of 22. Not great.
We’ve not been told, but my suspicion is if any were children, we would have been told. Could be wrong.
“The Christmas party was held in a closed room but the guests reportedly mingled with other people in the restaurant after 10:30pm, when it turned into a nightclub.”
Assume few, if any, children were there, given it was a evening do that went on beyond 10.30pm, at which point the DJ started rinsing the place up with some pumping techno cuts. Again, I could be wrong.
Yes if it was over 18s then you'd expect ~90% to be vaccinated so ~2 should be unvaccinated and ~20 vaccinated.
The Omicron panic is really in full swing now. It’s thoroughly annoying how emotion and narrative seems to be driving everything inexorably towards restrictions (though a good buying opportunity on the stock markets).
It seems like that on here. In the real world, most people seem to be getting on with their lives. I was surprised last night in town by how busy the bars were.
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Considering ~90% of adults are vaccinated, that shouldn't be a shock.
No. It would be nice if there were even a hint of skew towards the unvaccinated, though.
"More than half" is an asininely uninformative statistic.
12 of the 22 known cases up to 30 November had been fully vaccinated.
Total – second dose 46,462,638
UK Population 67.22 million
The expectation with 0 vaccine efficacy (Against infection) is that 69% of the 22, approx 15 people would have been affected...
Rate amongst vaccinated group = 12/(0.69*p) = 17.39/p Rate amongst unvaxxed group = 10/(0.31*p) = 32.26/p
(32.26 - 17.39)/32.26 = 46%
So Vaccine efficacy = 46%.
But 22 is a very small number of cases so You can't draw firm ANY statistical conclusions yet regarding vaccine efficacy.
Also you'd like to know how many of the 22 have been infected previously and so forth.
Yes, and the smaller a number 22 is the more important it is to be accurate about how it is made up. Your figures are out because there are two unknown vacc status which you have arbitrarily stuck into unvacced when the probability is at least one of them is vacced.
We know the number of unvaccinated was more than 5. 6, 7, 8 are the possibilities here.
The Omicron panic is really in full swing now. It’s thoroughly annoying how emotion and narrative seems to be driving everything inexorably towards restrictions (though a good buying opportunity on the stock markets).
Markets haven’t really dipped, at least not compared to earlier waves. There was a one day wobble since when the market has been reasonably optimistic.
They’ve corrected enough (about 2-3%) to make this a decent time to invest in a period when they’re usually in a Santa rally. I invested all of my annual ISA and pension allowance this week as did my wife, and next week the non-ISA stuff is going in. Sadly USD is also fairly strong vs GBP so that doesn’t help with US equities.
The Omicron panic is really in full swing now. It’s thoroughly annoying how emotion and narrative seems to be driving everything inexorably towards restrictions (though a good buying opportunity on the stock markets).
Markets haven’t really dipped, at least not compared to earlier waves. There was a one day wobble since when the market has been reasonably optimistic.
Some travel firms have taken a hit, which is where the bargains are in an optimistic scenario.
It's not mild if it's putting kids into hospital...
I just wonder if this 'genius move' of letting millions of kids in the UK be exposed to Delta is going to bite us on the ass down the line when it comes to Omicron, with reliance on so called immunity via exposure not holding up with this variant.
No. Even if there is significant reinfection, prior infection will tend to moderate severity. Besides, I think significant reinfection is overstating things. There has been very little reinfection with delta, so even if omicron is two or three times more able to do so, it’s still not huge. I’m not convinced by the belief that everyone in SA has had Covid argument. We’ve had this tried many times and the antibody evidence doesn’t stack up. It’s pretty certain now that we will see omicron gaining traction here. What effect that has on severe illness, hospitalisation and death is really anyone’s guess right now. My guess is not too much, but I am likely going to be wrong.
There are two versions of “covid is here forever”.
Version 1 is that it ceases being a major public health concern after this winter and floats around like influenza or pneumonia, competing for the same victims, while being annoying or barely noticeable for everyone else.
Version 2 is that we’re locked in a continual race between viral evolution and science, and that 2021 is more or less as good as things get until we get another major scientific breakthrough. There are no doubt many already falling into an almost existential depression at the possibility this might be true.
We listened to the RTÉ SixOne news this evening, which featured the Taoiseach reintroducing various restrictions, including an absurd limit on the number of different households allowed to visit another household, and it certainly feels that, nearly two years in, that there is a big risk of version 2 being our future.
For most of the pandemic so far our attitude has been that this is a temporary emergency and so we will exercise patience and see it out. it did feel like, after we'd been double-dosed, that we could coax ourselves slowly back to pre-pandemic normal. We're now trying to work out what we're going to do if this isn't temporary.
Part 1 is an order for FFP2 masks, so that when we do have to mix with strangers we can worry less about how ineptly they are wearing their masks.
We're talking about part 2 being buying a HEPA air purifier and inviting people round so that we can see friends without having to mix with strangers.
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Considering ~90% of adults are vaccinated, that shouldn't be a shock.
No. It would be nice if there were even a hint of skew towards the unvaccinated, though.
"More than half" is an asininely uninformative statistic.
12 of the 22 known cases up to 30 November had been fully vaccinated.
Total – second dose 46,462,638
UK Population 67.22 million
The expectation with 0 vaccine efficacy (Against infection) is that 69% of the 22, approx 15 people would have been affected...
Rate amongst vaccinated group = 12/(0.69*p) = 17.39/p Rate amongst unvaxxed group = 10/(0.31*p) = 32.26/p
(32.26 - 17.39)/32.26 = 46%
So Vaccine efficacy = 46%.
But 22 is a very small number of cases so You can't draw firm ANY statistical conclusions yet regarding vaccine efficacy.
Also you'd like to know how many of the 22 have been infected previously and so forth.
Yes, and the smaller a number 22 is the more important it is to be accurate about how it is made up. Your figures are out because there are two unknown vacc status which you have arbitrarily stuck into unvacced when the probability is at least one of them is vacced.
Actually you are wrong. Tiny sample size = huge uncertainty, therefore assigning very accurate percentages in terms of population vaccinate rates to that is flawed in the same way as say recording a known noisy measurment of distance to many decimal places.
Trying to garner anything really from 22 (or 24) samples is flawed from the get go.
Indeed. We could similarly extrapolate that as all of the 60 Norwegian restaurant/ravers merely have a runny nose, that omicron is a variant that requires only a global bulk order of aloe vera tissues.
The Omicron panic is really in full swing now. It’s thoroughly annoying how emotion and narrative seems to be driving everything inexorably towards restrictions (though a good buying opportunity on the stock markets).
Markets haven’t really dipped, at least not compared to earlier waves. There was a one day wobble since when the market has been reasonably optimistic.
Some travel firms have taken a hit, which is where the bargains are in an optimistic scenario.
Its cos all the money is in crypto these days...
I remember the good old days of Feb 2020. Proper market crashes. Unfortunately at the time was a bit short of cash so couldn’t get in.
There is so much cash swimming about in Western economies - consumers and businesses - at the moment that any sustained period of calm is going to see big rises in asset prices. The trouble is extended periods of calm are so hard to come by. Once COVID’s over it’ll be the next Russian incursion into Ukraine, or a natural disaster somewhere important for the world economy.
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Considering ~90% of adults are vaccinated, that shouldn't be a shock.
No. It would be nice if there were even a hint of skew towards the unvaccinated, though.
"More than half" is an asininely uninformative statistic.
12 of the 22 known cases up to 30 November had been fully vaccinated.
Total – second dose 46,462,638
UK Population 67.22 million
The expectation with 0 vaccine efficacy (Against infection) is that 69% of the 22, approx 15 people would have been affected...
Rate amongst vaccinated group = 12/(0.69*p) = 17.39/p Rate amongst unvaxxed group = 10/(0.31*p) = 32.26/p
(32.26 - 17.39)/32.26 = 46%
So Vaccine efficacy = 46%.
But 22 is a very small number of cases so You can't draw firm ANY statistical conclusions yet regarding vaccine efficacy.
Also you'd like to know how many of the 22 have been infected previously and so forth.
Yes, and the smaller a number 22 is the more important it is to be accurate about how it is made up. Your figures are out because there are two unknown vacc status which you have arbitrarily stuck into unvacced when the probability is at least one of them is vacced.
Actually you are wrong. Tiny sample size = huge uncertainty, therefore assigning very accurate percentages in terms of population vaccinate rates to that is flawed in the same way as say recording a known noisy measurment of distance to many decimal places.
Trying to garner anything really from 22 (or 24) samples is flawed from the get go.
Indeed. We could similarly extrapolate that as all of the 60 Norwegian restaurant/ravers merely have a runny nose, that omicron is a variant that requires only a global bulk order of aloe vera tissues.
It's the conundrum at the heart of the pandemic now, both my vaxxed office colleagues barely knew they had delta. Indeed one of them has had covid twice based on the antibody samples she sent in. OTOH we all know of some very unpleasent unvaxxed cases. It's not so much that the unvaxxed will all get it, and the vaxxed won't - more that the unvaxxed are going to gum up the hospitals if the wave is too big.
It's not mild if it's putting kids into hospital...
I just wonder if this 'genius move' of letting millions of kids in the UK be exposed to Delta is going to bite us on the ass down the line when it comes to Omicron, with reliance on so called immunity via exposure not holding up with this variant.
No. Even if there is significant reinfection, prior infection will tend to moderate severity. Besides, I think significant reinfection is overstating things. There has been very little reinfection with delta, so even if omicron is two or three times more able to do so, it’s still not huge. I’m not convinced by the belief that everyone in SA has had Covid argument. We’ve had this tried many times and the antibody evidence doesn’t stack up. It’s pretty certain now that we will see omicron gaining traction here. What effect that has on severe illness, hospitalisation and death is really anyone’s guess right now. My guess is not too much, but I am likely going to be wrong.
There are two versions of “covid is here forever”.
Version 1 is that it ceases being a major public health concern after this winter and floats around like influenza or pneumonia, competing for the same victims, while being annoying or barely noticeable for everyone else.
Version 2 is that we’re locked in a continual race between viral evolution and science, and that 2021 is more or less as good as things get until we get another major scientific breakthrough. There are no doubt many already falling into an almost existential depression at the possibility this might be true.
We listened to the RTÉ SixOne news this evening, which featured the Taoiseach reintroducing various restrictions, including an absurd limit on the number of different households allowed to visit another household, and it certainly feels that, nearly two years in, that there is a big risk of version 2 being our future.
For most of the pandemic so far our attitude has been that this is a temporary emergency and so we will exercise patience and see it out. it did feel like, after we'd been double-dosed, that we could coax ourselves slowly back to pre-pandemic normal. We're now trying to work out what we're going to do if this isn't temporary.
Part 1 is an order for FFP2 masks, so that when we do have to mix with strangers we can worry less about how ineptly they are wearing their masks.
We're talking about part 2 being buying a HEPA air purifier and inviting people round so that we can see friends without having to mix with strangers.
If you believe you need to reduce transmission, actually the household mixing is one of the things that does work. A huge bulk of transmission is within households and in homes via close friends, because people spend hours in each others company, closely interacting and obviously no mask wearing. And especially in the winter when you won't be outside and unlikely to have much ventilation.
Things like mask in gyms on the other hand are just nonsense.
The Omicron panic is really in full swing now. It’s thoroughly annoying how emotion and narrative seems to be driving everything inexorably towards restrictions (though a good buying opportunity on the stock markets).
It seems like that on here. In the real world, most people seem to be getting on with their lives. I was surprised last night in town by how busy the bars were.
FWIW all the pre-Christmas events I'm going to are still on. Admittedly there are only two of them, but they both involve decent numbers of people.
Best case scenario for the run up to the holiday season is that the Government doesn't stick its oar in again, so the frightened segment of the population can sit at home and the rest of us are free to just get on with it. After that we'll see...
It's not mild if it's putting kids into hospital...
I just wonder if this 'genius move' of letting millions of kids in the UK be exposed to Delta is going to bite us on the ass down the line when it comes to Omicron, with reliance on so called immunity via exposure not holding up with this variant.
No. Even if there is significant reinfection, prior infection will tend to moderate severity. Besides, I think significant reinfection is overstating things. There has been very little reinfection with delta, so even if omicron is two or three times more able to do so, it’s still not huge. I’m not convinced by the belief that everyone in SA has had Covid argument. We’ve had this tried many times and the antibody evidence doesn’t stack up. It’s pretty certain now that we will see omicron gaining traction here. What effect that has on severe illness, hospitalisation and death is really anyone’s guess right now. My guess is not too much, but I am likely going to be wrong.
There are two versions of “covid is here forever”.
Version 1 is that it ceases being a major public health concern after this winter and floats around like influenza or pneumonia, competing for the same victims, while being annoying or barely noticeable for everyone else.
Version 2 is that we’re locked in a continual race between viral evolution and science, and that 2021 is more or less as good as things get until we get another major scientific breakthrough. There are no doubt many already falling into an almost existential depression at the possibility this might be true.
We listened to the RTÉ SixOne news this evening, which featured the Taoiseach reintroducing various restrictions, including an absurd limit on the number of different households allowed to visit another household, and it certainly feels that, nearly two years in, that there is a big risk of version 2 being our future.
For most of the pandemic so far our attitude has been that this is a temporary emergency and so we will exercise patience and see it out. it did feel like, after we'd been double-dosed, that we could coax ourselves slowly back to pre-pandemic normal. We're now trying to work out what we're going to do if this isn't temporary.
Part 1 is an order for FFP2 masks, so that when we do have to mix with strangers we can worry less about how ineptly they are wearing their masks.
We're talking about part 2 being buying a HEPA air purifier and inviting people round so that we can see friends without having to mix with strangers.
Yes, when I supported (indeed advocated) a lockdown in March 2020 never did I think that we’d be making them a policy tool that governments could employ at will. I thought it was a one off for an absolutely extraordinary situation. Had I known then what I know now I wouldn’t have supported it then. But the road to hell is paved with regrets.
The Omicron panic is really in full swing now. It’s thoroughly annoying how emotion and narrative seems to be driving everything inexorably towards restrictions (though a good buying opportunity on the stock markets).
Markets haven’t really dipped, at least not compared to earlier waves. There was a one day wobble since when the market has been reasonably optimistic.
Some travel firms have taken a hit, which is where the bargains are in an optimistic scenario.
Its cos all the money is in crypto these days...
I remember the good old days of Feb 2020. Proper market crashes. Unfortunately at the time was a bit short of cash so couldn’t get in.
There is so much cash swimming about in Western economies - consumers and businesses - at the moment that any sustained period of calm is going to see big rises in asset prices. The trouble is extended periods of calm are so hard to come by. Once COVID’s over it’ll be the next Russian incursion into Ukraine, or a natural disaster somewhere important for the world economy.
The amount of market manipulation still going on within crypto is amazing and I don't mean just the scam coins. Every week or two, there is coordinated dumps and pumps of even big assets like bitcoin e.g. it just happened an hour or so ago.
The idiots who try and day trade it using leverage are absolute morons. Month after month people come along and just liquid their positions by manipulating the market.
It's not mild if it's putting kids into hospital...
I just wonder if this 'genius move' of letting millions of kids in the UK be exposed to Delta is going to bite us on the ass down the line when it comes to Omicron, with reliance on so called immunity via exposure not holding up with this variant.
No. Even if there is significant reinfection, prior infection will tend to moderate severity. Besides, I think significant reinfection is overstating things. There has been very little reinfection with delta, so even if omicron is two or three times more able to do so, it’s still not huge. I’m not convinced by the belief that everyone in SA has had Covid argument. We’ve had this tried many times and the antibody evidence doesn’t stack up. It’s pretty certain now that we will see omicron gaining traction here. What effect that has on severe illness, hospitalisation and death is really anyone’s guess right now. My guess is not too much, but I am likely going to be wrong.
There are two versions of “covid is here forever”.
Version 1 is that it ceases being a major public health concern after this winter and floats around like influenza or pneumonia, competing for the same victims, while being annoying or barely noticeable for everyone else.
Version 2 is that we’re locked in a continual race between viral evolution and science, and that 2021 is more or less as good as things get until we get another major scientific breakthrough. There are no doubt many already falling into an almost existential depression at the possibility this might be true.
We listened to the RTÉ SixOne news this evening, which featured the Taoiseach reintroducing various restrictions, including an absurd limit on the number of different households allowed to visit another household, and it certainly feels that, nearly two years in, that there is a big risk of version 2 being our future.
For most of the pandemic so far our attitude has been that this is a temporary emergency and so we will exercise patience and see it out. it did feel like, after we'd been double-dosed, that we could coax ourselves slowly back to pre-pandemic normal. We're now trying to work out what we're going to do if this isn't temporary.
Part 1 is an order for FFP2 masks, so that when we do have to mix with strangers we can worry less about how ineptly they are wearing their masks.
We're talking about part 2 being buying a HEPA air purifier and inviting people round so that we can see friends without having to mix with strangers.
Yes, when I supported (indeed advocated) a lockdown in March 2020 never did I think that we’d be making them a policy tool that governments could employ at will. I thought it was a one off for an absolutely extraordinary situation. Had I known then what I know now I wouldn’t have supported it then. But the road to hell is paved with regrets.
Just think of all the hospitality related businesses that were calling for it because they feared loss of trade from customers staying away when insurance wouldn’t kick in without Government mandate...
In short order, Hong Kongers have become one of Britain’s most important immigrant groups. Between January and the end of September, almost 89,000 applied to settle under a new visa scheme created in response to the rapid erosion of civil liberties in the province. For comparison, 184,000 people from all countries applied for work visas in the first nine months of this year.
In short order, Hong Kongers have become one of Britain’s most important immigrant groups. Between January and the end of September, almost 89,000 applied to settle under a new visa scheme created in response to the rapid erosion of civil liberties in the province. For comparison, 184,000 people from all countries applied for work visas in the first nine months of this year.
In short order, Hong Kongers have become one of Britain’s most important immigrant groups. Between January and the end of September, almost 89,000 applied to settle under a new visa scheme created in response to the rapid erosion of civil liberties in the province. For comparison, 184,000 people from all countries applied for work visas in the first nine months of this year.
Its a wider problem than football, it is that coke has long since passed from the middle class drug of choice, to being standard things to take when going out of the lash among many people, and of course it causes lots of people to act like aggressive wankers who don't give a shit about anybody else.
Has to read small print to find out there are such large caveats it is not worth commenting on.
Can only hope that the Govt will tough it out and not be driven by public demand in response to these headlines...
The Guardian understands the government has been privately urged by some of its own scientific advisers to tell people to work from home until Christmas if they can, when more will be known about the dangers posed by the new variant.
In short order, Hong Kongers have become one of Britain’s most important immigrant groups. Between January and the end of September, almost 89,000 applied to settle under a new visa scheme created in response to the rapid erosion of civil liberties in the province. For comparison, 184,000 people from all countries applied for work visas in the first nine months of this year.
The Omicron panic is really in full swing now. It’s thoroughly annoying how emotion and narrative seems to be driving everything inexorably towards restrictions (though a good buying opportunity on the stock markets).
Hard to believe anyone still advocating buying at this late stage in the cycle.
More than half the confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant in the UK have occurred following at least two vaccination doses, health officials have said https://trib.al/WCysmqX
Considering ~90% of adults are vaccinated, that shouldn't be a shock.
No. It would be nice if there were even a hint of skew towards the unvaccinated, though.
"More than half" is an asininely uninformative statistic.
12 of the 22 known cases up to 30 November had been fully vaccinated.
Total – second dose 46,462,638
UK Population 67.22 million
The expectation with 0 vaccine efficacy (Against infection) is that 69% of the 22, approx 15 people would have been affected...
Rate amongst vaccinated group = 12/(0.69*p) = 17.39/p Rate amongst unvaxxed group = 10/(0.31*p) = 32.26/p
(32.26 - 17.39)/32.26 = 46%
So Vaccine efficacy = 46%.
But 22 is a very small number of cases so You can't draw firm ANY statistical conclusions yet regarding vaccine efficacy.
Also you'd like to know how many of the 22 have been infected previously and so forth.
Yes, and the smaller a number 22 is the more important it is to be accurate about how it is made up. Your figures are out because there are two unknown vacc status which you have arbitrarily stuck into unvacced when the probability is at least one of them is vacced.
Actually you are wrong. Tiny sample size = huge uncertainty, therefore assigning very accurate percentages in terms of population vaccinate rates to that is flawed in the same way as say recording a known noisy measurment of distance to many decimal places.
Trying to garner anything really from 22 (or 24) samples is flawed from the get go.
You talk a good game of statistical sophistication but the mask slips from time to time, as when you expressed astonishment a couple of nights ago at the realisation that the initial identification of Omicron in South Africa does not imply that Omicron originated in South Africa. Observation bias? Never heard of it.
I am pretty certain you are talking nonsense. We are interested in one if-then question and one alone: if double vacced, then susceptible to infection or not? No continuous variables, no effect sizes, just yes/no. In terms of clinical trials this is analogous to a phase one trial which addresses an equally yes/no question: safe or not? I note that the fda stipulates that a phase one trial should have 20-100 participants
Comments
(Am I the only person who's a little... surprised... that Pfizer has managed to produce the first vaccine to market and the first really successful treatment.)
NY Times
Hope you are right.
Unless the omi-bastard totally or almost totally evades the vax we need to hold our nerve and not lockdown again.
That’s not enough.
Christmasnon-religious winter festival party is a right hoot.Carl A. B. Pearson
@cap1024
As discussed at #EPIDEMICS8 breakout session,
@saCOVID19mc
have started characterizing the #SARSCoV2 variant #Omicron; working estimates for this new variant are critical so the globe can plan with the best information possible: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hA6Mec2Gq3LGqTEOj35RqSeAb_SmXpbI/view?usp=sharing
https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/vaccinations
Nearly 90% double vaccinated above age 12.
Some claimed the pandemic was "over" in July - perhaps , perhaps not. I've yet to see any compelling evidence Omicron represents a serious risk to those double or triple vaccinated. I do accept for those who have eschewed vaccination, Omicron is serious but is that a reason to re-impose restrictions on the vast majority of the vaccinated?
Getting more people double and triple vaccinated seems the obvious course if Omicron is less of an impact among the vaccinated - we do need of course to continue to rigorously monitor the efficacy of vaccines and the development of the virus.
We had this last time, with Delta. Not saying it’s wrong but… the fog of war and all that.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/09/health/coronavirus-children-delta.html
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/
The scheme has ended.
This is the first time we’ve faced a possible wave after furlough gone. That will be a big part of the reason gvt would resist following Ireland
https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1466844981960880131
I'm a bit surprised their production is ramping that slowly, tbh.
Not enough, but heading in the right direction.
In any case, I'd argue a lot of people would still consider their lives to be affected if not disrupted by the virus. We can argue July 17th and the road to that point (albeit delayed) was the implementation of the policy to "live with" the virus and confront it with vaccination as the primary weapon.
In truth, most countries have gone down a similar route thanks to the vaccines.
I'm not against that as a political policy - indeed, I'd argue the resumption of "normal" life has allowed us an opportunity to see the genuine competence of the Government elected two years ago. I'm sure we'll see more examples of this competence in the months to come.
Until and unless there's compelling evidence Omicron represents a serious threat to the vaccinated, I agree we don't need to be too concerned. Yes, we must ensure as many as possible are given their booster vaccinations as quickly as possible and we must monitor the efficacy of the vaccines and the progress of the virus in the coming months.
The concern, however, is, even in limited numbers, Omicron will continue to put such an additional pressure on our hospital capacities that the thousands in dire need of non-Covid medical attention, let alone a normal winter's worth of illnesses, sprains and accidents will combine to create a real winter crisis in the NHS.
"More than half" is an asininely uninformative statistic.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-expects-produce-80-mln-courses-covid-19-antiviral-pill-cnbc-reporter-2021-11-29/
No specific data for corona, buts how the body works in general.
That's a massive skew towards the unvaccinated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEiCb6phWAY
https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1466814510027755522
Old: 3 Safe Dem, 3 Lean Dem, 1 toss-up, 1 Lean Rep, 2 Safe Rep
New: 4 Safe Dem, 2 Lean Dem, 1 toss-up, 1 Lean Rep, 2 Safe Rep
The toss-up is the 8th District whose Partisan lean remains exactly the same (at zero) despite significant boundary changes - ie the changes all precisely offset.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/washington/commission_final/
We don't know anyone's age so 69% (population, not adults ) is the correct percentage. So if vaccines are irrelevant you'd expect 22 x 69% or 15 vaccinees. 12 are deffo vaccinated, 2 unknown but at least one likely to be vaccinated (because 69%) so 13 or 14 out of 22 vs an expected 15 out of 22. Not great.
Total – second dose
46,462,638
UK Population
67.22 million
The expectation with 0 vaccine efficacy (Against infection) is that 69% of the 22, approx 15 people would have been affected...
Rate amongst vaccinated group = 12/(0.69*p) = 17.39/p
Rate amongst unvaxxed group = 10/(0.31*p) = 32.26/p
(32.26 - 17.39)/32.26 = 46%
So Vaccine efficacy = 46%.
But 22 is a very small number of cases so You can't draw firm ANY statistical conclusions yet regarding vaccine efficacy.
Also you'd like to know how many of the 22 have been infected previously and so forth.
Assume few, if any, children were there, given it was a evening do that went on beyond 10.30pm, at which point the DJ started rinsing the place up with some pumping techno cuts. Again, I could be wrong.
Could be carnage on Sunday.
If you take "population" to mean 12+, since you're sure (As may well be the case at this point) that 11 yrs and under have not had a chance to catch omicron the vaccine efficacy jumps from
((10/0.31) - (12/0.69))/(10/0.31) = 46%
to
((10/0.192) - (12/0.808))/(10/0.192) = 71%
But what was the mix of vaxxed and unvaxxed in that particular party ?
Noone really knows, and 22 cases is too small a number to do this sort of calculation on anyway.
Trying to garner anything really from 22 (or 24) samples is flawed from the get go.
Some travel firms have taken a hit, which is where the bargains are in an optimistic scenario.
Trying to calculate the vaccine efficacy of a novel respiratory pathogen variant from 22 people with runny noses in Norway.
Only on PB.
Also, the manager of the sports hall is very upset with whoever was wearing the trainers that left coloured scuff marks on the polished floor.
For most of the pandemic so far our attitude has been that this is a temporary emergency and so we will exercise patience and see it out. it did feel like, after we'd been double-dosed, that we could coax ourselves slowly back to pre-pandemic normal. We're now trying to work out what we're going to do if this isn't temporary.
Part 1 is an order for FFP2 masks, so that when we do have to mix with strangers we can worry less about how ineptly they are wearing their masks.
We're talking about part 2 being buying a HEPA air purifier and inviting people round so that we can see friends without having to mix with strangers.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/03/princes-press-amol-rajan-bbc-documentary
@TheScreamingEagles ought to enjoy.
There is so much cash swimming about in Western economies - consumers and businesses - at the moment that any sustained period of calm is going to see big rises in asset prices. The trouble is extended periods of calm are so hard to come by. Once COVID’s over it’ll be the next Russian incursion into Ukraine, or a natural disaster somewhere important for the world economy.
OTOH we all know of some very unpleasent unvaxxed cases. It's not so much that the unvaxxed will all get it, and the vaxxed won't - more that the unvaxxed are going to gum up the hospitals if the wave is too big.
Things like mask in gyms on the other hand are just nonsense.
Best case scenario for the run up to the holiday season is that the Government doesn't stick its oar in again, so the frightened segment of the population can sit at home and the rest of us are free to just get on with it. After that we'll see...
The idiots who try and day trade it using leverage are absolute morons. Month after month people come along and just liquid their positions by manipulating the market.
I WEEKEND: UK ‘red’ alert over Omicron ability to hit double jabbed
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466874750760894466?s=20
Has to read small print to find out there are such large caveats it is not worth commenting on.
Date Cases Positivity
25/11 2,465 6.5%
26/11 2,828 9.1%
27/11 3,220 9.2%
28/11 2,858 9.8%
29/11 2,273 10.7%
30/11 4,373 10.2%
01/12 8,561 16.5%
02/12 11,535 22,4%
03/12 16,055 24,3%
https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/12/04/many-more-hong-kongers-are-thinking-about-moving-to-britain?utm_medium=social-media.content.np&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=editorial-social&utm_content=discovery.content
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/12/03/habitual-cocaine-use-football-fans-problem-sport-needs-face/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/03/omicron-act-now-stop-nhs-being-overwhelmed-covid-variant-uk-ministers-warned
What they mean is Susan Michie has been on the phone again moaning to the press.
Pity about the scoreline.
https://www.economist.com/1843/2021/10/25/its-a-wonderful-placea-playland-the-hong-kongers-fleeing-to-blackpool
@MagnusCarlsen
YES.
https://twitter.com/MagnusCarlsen/status/1466876519972851715?s=20
BREAKING: England reports 75 new cases of Omicron variant, raising UK total to 134
I am pretty certain you are talking nonsense. We are interested in one if-then question and one alone: if double vacced, then susceptible to infection or not? No continuous variables, no effect sizes, just yes/no. In terms of clinical trials this is analogous to a phase one trial which addresses an equally yes/no question: safe or not? I note that the fda stipulates that a phase one trial should have 20-100 participants
https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process/step-3-clinical-research
Where are they going wrong?