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LD by-election objectives – Win or lose deposit – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageLD by-election objectives – Win or lose deposit – politicalbetting.com

There was a time when a Lib Dem lost deposit at a Westminster by-election was seen by commentators as evidence of decline. Well no more. The chart shows the party’s shares at the four English by-elections so far in 2021 which illustrates the strategy and how it is working.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • ClippPClippP Posts: 950
    edited December 2021
    First - always win, for preference.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    So the libdems are de mobilising in Shropshire? The dream of spanking Boris shamefaced bottom in a by election is over?

    Boris still remains, remarkably, despite everything, a hugely electorally successful politician.
  • In the absence of Proportional Representation (AV in the case of By Elections) then this makes sense for the opposition parties.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    🇬🇧🇫🇷Johnson biographer Andrew Gimson says that Johnson’s deployment of Franglais was a hostile act against Macron.

    🔓This article is currently free to read

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/02/behind-scenes-boris-macrons-fractured-double-act/
  • Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    44m
    So until we have some better handle on those two things:
    a) How much does omicron escape 3-dose or 2+dose immunity?
    b) How intrinsically infectious is omicron relative to delta?
    we've no idea whether we have any kind of potential problem here at all.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 950
    No need for any kind of agreement, formal or otherwise. Activists know whether or not it is worth turning out to help on a bitterly cold day. And voters can tell whether or not a campaign is going to be a winning one. This is why our PB Tories are mistaken in simply looking at the result of the last Westminster election and inferring that by adding or subtracting a certain percentage, they can tell what the result will be.
  • I think Mike is being overly generous trying to make a virtue out of failure.

    Yes C&A was a success, as relatively meaningless midterm by-elections can tend to be. North Shropshire may be the same.

    But there's no success on the others. Labour didn't even come close in Bexley and the swing was quite dismal for a by-election so lets not pretend it was all tactical and a successful plan.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,568
    edited December 2021



    Boris still remains, remarkably, despite everything, a hugely electorally successful politician.

    Indeed, Teflon!

    Just like Tony Blair.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,568
    edited December 2021
    Posted without comment.

    CON: 36% (-)
    LAB: 33% (-2)
    GRN: 9% (+1)
    LDEM: 9% (+2)
    REFUK: 6%

    via
    @YouGov

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1466705686369378305
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,128

    I think the interesting question is more (as @algarkirk pointed out) why is Labour -- with a personable candidate born & bred in Croesowallt -- not trying to win a constituency in which they were clearly in second place at GE 2019.

    It makes Labour look weak & dispirited. It makes SKS look weak & dispirited.

    Whether the Tories hold Shropshire North or not does not amount to a hill of beans when they have a majority of 80.

    From the POV if the Labour, it is better to fight this and make some good progress, rather than not fight & go backwards.

    Even if Helen Wealthy White-Settler -- or whatever her name is -- wins for the LibDems, she will lose the seat at the next GE.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Conservative MPs have warned that it may be "too late" to shore up support in North Shropshire, with just two weeks before the next by-election.

    Boris Johnson has held on to his party’s seat in Old Bexley and Sidcup, but the Conservative majority was slashed from almost 19,000 to just 4,478. Louie French, the Tory candidate, won the election triggered by the death of James Brokenshire with a 51.4 per cent share of the vote, compared with Labour’s 30.8 per cent.

    Backbenchers praised Justin Tomlinson, the deputy party chairman, for running a "slick" and "very solid campaign", which one said was "the best I've seen in terms of competency".

    His team will now switch their focus to North Shropshire, with a vote on Dec 16 triggered by the resignation of Owen Paterson amid the row over sleaze allegations.

    One said today's result was "a relief", but added: "North Shropshire will be different because there is a more organised opposition in place, and other parties are taking it more seriously."

    "Vibes coming back are not good," said one. "JT's team switch to Shropshire on Monday but I suspect it'll be too late.. he can't be everywhere and was determined to get [Old Bexley] over the line."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/03/boris-johnson-news-bexley-by-election-starmer-labour-brexit/

    Absolutely clunking expectation management, but presumably the reason they are saying they are worried is they are actually worried
  • I think Mike is being overly generous trying to make a virtue out of failure.

    Yes C&A was a success, as relatively meaningless midterm by-elections can tend to be. North Shropshire may be the same.

    But there's no success on the others. Labour didn't even come close in Bexley and the swing was quite dismal for a by-election so lets not pretend it was all tactical and a successful plan.

    Remember BJ has only ever beaten antisemitic pensioners
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    edited December 2021

    I think Mike is being overly generous trying to make a virtue out of failure.

    Yes C&A was a success, as relatively meaningless midterm by-elections can tend to be. North Shropshire may be the same.

    But there's no success on the others. Labour didn't even come close in Bexley and the swing was quite dismal for a by-election so lets not pretend it was all tactical and a successful plan.

    Remember BJ has only ever beaten antisemitic pensioners
    I wonder how secure the Queen feels on her throne right now.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,568

    I think Mike is being overly generous trying to make a virtue out of failure.

    Yes C&A was a success, as relatively meaningless midterm by-elections can tend to be. North Shropshire may be the same.

    But there's no success on the others. Labour didn't even come close in Bexley and the swing was quite dismal for a by-election so lets not pretend it was all tactical and a successful plan.

    Remember BJ has only ever beaten antisemitic pensioners
    Red Ken was 62 when Boris beat him in May 2008 so not quite a pensioner... ;)

  • I think the interesting question is more (as @algarkirk pointed out) why is Labour -- with a personable candidate born & bred in Croesowallt -- not trying to win a constituency in which they were clearly in second place at GE 2019.

    It makes Labour look weak & dispirited. It makes SKS look weak & dispirited.

    Whether the Tories hold Shropshire North or not does not amount to a hill of beans when they have a majority of 80.

    From the POV if the Labour, it is better to fight this and make some good progress, rather than not fight & go backwards.

    Even if Helen Wealthy White-Settler -- or whatever her name is -- wins for the LibDems, she will lose the seat at the next GE.

    Its a seat that Labour have regularly gotten more than 30% of the vote in, in the past, and only once in decades have they been behind the Lib Dems.

    Labour really are weak not to be trying. Weak, weak, weak.
  • I think Mike is being overly generous trying to make a virtue out of failure.

    Yes C&A was a success, as relatively meaningless midterm by-elections can tend to be. North Shropshire may be the same.

    But there's no success on the others. Labour didn't even come close in Bexley and the swing was quite dismal for a by-election so lets not pretend it was all tactical and a successful plan.

    Remember BJ has only ever beaten antisemitic pensioners
    So why in 2007 where you advising people to back that antisemitic pensioner at 1.5?

    Why was the antisemitic pensioner "value" at 1.5 when the campaign began?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975


    I think the interesting question is more (as @algarkirk pointed out) why is Labour -- with a personable candidate born & bred in Croesowallt -- not trying to win a constituency in which they were clearly in second place at GE 2019.

    It makes Labour look weak & dispirited. It makes SKS look weak & dispirited.

    Whether the Tories hold Shropshire North or not does not amount to a hill of beans when they have a majority of 80.

    From the POV if the Labour, it is better to fight this and make some good progress, rather than not fight & go backwards.

    Even if Helen Wealthy White-Settler -- or whatever her name is -- wins for the LibDems, she will lose the seat at the next GE.

    Croesoswallt.

    even better Oswestry.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,823

    So the libdems are de mobilising in Shropshire? The dream of spanking Boris shamefaced bottom in a by election is over?

    Boris still remains, remarkably, despite everything, a hugely electorally successful politician.

    LOL, where did that 'So' come from.

    If you think the LDs are demobilising in NS and not dreaming of spanking Boris's bottom in a by election any more, I think you are very much mistaken. I mean where on earth did you get that from?

    Whether they do or not is another matter, but what on earth is your evidence for such a bizarre statement?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    GIN1138 said:



    Boris still remains, remarkably, despite everything, a hugely electorally successful politician.

    Indeed, Teflon!

    Just like Tony Blair.
    Maybe like starting a relationship with the wrong person, people like the idea of Boris, the new Churchill, not the real Boris because the pain of being governed by the real Boris havn’t slapped them in the face and thrown them out in the street yet!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612
    The LDs do however face problems with their strategy.

    In a system geared to 2 parties, which ours is, the third party has about three options apart from mere grandstanding.

    It can be the party that makes sure the left doesn't prevail
    It can be the party that makes sure the right doesn't prevail
    or it can be a party which stands for something that can never be in government but can be a long term force for good.

    In the last decades, with the ill fated coalition being the tipping point, it has gone from being a badly organised influencer for good, to the party that kept the left out, to now, and most emphatically, being the party to help put the Tories out and help put Labour in.

    There is nowhere (practically) where Lab and LD compete for a seat. This is telling. And the LDs cannot stand anywhere as the compromise moderation different party. It is emphatically progressive centre left. Its one job now is to ensure that Tories don't form a government.

    This may be sensible, but it does give the centre right a great deal of ammunition when it comes to a general election, irrelevant though it is in between.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    GIN1138 said:

    Posted without comment.

    CON: 36% (-)
    LAB: 33% (-2)
    GRN: 9% (+1)
    LDEM: 9% (+2)
    REFUK: 6%

    via
    @YouGov

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1466705686369378305

    Team Starmer having a bad hair week!
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689

    I think Mike is being overly generous trying to make a virtue out of failure.

    Yes C&A was a success, as relatively meaningless midterm by-elections can tend to be. North Shropshire may be the same.

    But there's no success on the others. Labour didn't even come close in Bexley and the swing was quite dismal for a by-election so lets not pretend it was all tactical and a successful plan.

    Remember BJ has only ever beaten antisemitic pensioners
    And definitely never Carrie. He's not the type. Certainly, definitely not.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Posted without comment.

    CON: 36% (-)
    LAB: 33% (-2)
    GRN: 9% (+1)
    LDEM: 9% (+2)
    REFUK: 6%

    via
    @YouGov

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1466705686369378305

    This is just the Lib Dem/Labour vote swapping strategy working as intended…
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 582
    Turnout is everything - Turnout at Chesham and Amersham was 52% at Old Bexley 34%. The weight of Lib Dem leaflets at C & A convinced enough people that was worth turning out. It may be the same in N. Shropshire but a much more difficult constituency to fight. At C & A replacing a respected MP who had died whereas the N Shropshire MP had to resign in disgrace.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 950
    kjh said:

    So the libdems are de mobilising in Shropshire? The dream of spanking Boris shamefaced bottom in a by election is over?

    Boris still remains, remarkably, despite everything, a hugely electorally successful politician.

    LOL, where did that 'So' come from.

    If you think the LDs are demobilising in NS and not dreaming of spanking Boris's bottom in a by election any more, I think you are very much mistaken. I mean where on earth did you get that from?

    Whether they do or not is another matter, but what on earth is your evidence for such a bizarre statement?
    I think he is just mimicking the Tory line - to destruction of course. A lot of our PB Tories just want the Lib Dems to collapse and disappear - so they are being positive for Labour.
  • GIN1138 said:



    Boris still remains, remarkably, despite everything, a hugely electorally successful politician.

    Indeed, Teflon!

    Just like Tony Blair.
    Maybe like starting a relationship with the wrong person, people like the idea of Boris, the new Churchill, not the real Boris because the pain of being governed by the real Boris havn’t slapped them in the face and thrown them out in the street yet!
    I thought the Johnsons tended to prefer a slap on the backside?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612
    edited December 2021

    I think Mike is being overly generous trying to make a virtue out of failure.

    Yes C&A was a success, as relatively meaningless midterm by-elections can tend to be. North Shropshire may be the same.

    But there's no success on the others. Labour didn't even come close in Bexley and the swing was quite dismal for a by-election so lets not pretend it was all tactical and a successful plan.

    Remember BJ has only ever beaten antisemitic pensioners
    Outside asking for a Wimbledon wild card to ensure he faces someone younger it is hard to know what else Boris can do apart from beat the opposing team and the pensioner candidates they put up. At least SKS is neither a pensioner nor, laus deo antisemitic. He also isn't 20 points ahead in the polls, and has no plan to shift from 2nd to 1st at NS next week.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349

    So the libdems are de mobilising in Shropshire? The dream of spanking Boris shamefaced bottom in a by election is over?

    Boris still remains, remarkably, despite everything, a hugely electorally successful politician.

    EH ?!

    That's an absolubtely bizarre & total non sequitur of an inference from the thread header
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,163
    IshmaelZ said:

    Conservative MPs have warned that it may be "too late" to shore up support in North Shropshire, with just two weeks before the next by-election.

    Boris Johnson has held on to his party’s seat in Old Bexley and Sidcup, but the Conservative majority was slashed from almost 19,000 to just 4,478. Louie French, the Tory candidate, won the election triggered by the death of James Brokenshire with a 51.4 per cent share of the vote, compared with Labour’s 30.8 per cent.

    Backbenchers praised Justin Tomlinson, the deputy party chairman, for running a "slick" and "very solid campaign", which one said was "the best I've seen in terms of competency".

    His team will now switch their focus to North Shropshire, with a vote on Dec 16 triggered by the resignation of Owen Paterson amid the row over sleaze allegations.

    One said today's result was "a relief", but added: "North Shropshire will be different because there is a more organised opposition in place, and other parties are taking it more seriously."

    "Vibes coming back are not good," said one. "JT's team switch to Shropshire on Monday but I suspect it'll be too late.. he can't be everywhere and was determined to get [Old Bexley] over the line."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/03/boris-johnson-news-bexley-by-election-starmer-labour-brexit/

    Absolutely clunking expectation management, but presumably the reason they are saying they are worried is they are actually worried

    Interesting (by which I mean either stupid or deliberately misleading) that the DT majors on the absolute change in majority between elections with very different turnouts. Has there ever been a government by election hold without a 'slashed' majority in absolute terms?
  • The by-election is yet more evidence of tactical voting between Labour and the Lib Dems, this will be hugely important if repeated at a GE
  • The by-election is yet more evidence of tactical voting between Labour and the Lib Dems, this will be hugely important if repeated at a GE

    PMSL the swing to the Opposition was less than average in a by-election.

    Despite the Lib Dems losing share, Labour's share rise was very poor for a by-election.

    If a GE is repeated based on this I'd expect an increased Tory majority.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    It is endlessly amusing the way that labour and LDs cannot really co-operate to beat the tories. All this wasted effort in the pursuit of mutual self destruction. The problem seems to be with the labour party, they always screw over minor parties who stand aside for them. It seems to be part of their tribal pathology which has really just prevented them from winning anything for the last 11 years. I am not sure that they have really changed track now.

    Blair got it right as usual; he was in favour of co-operation with the LDs.
  • darkage said:

    It is endlessly amusing the way that labour and LDs cannot really co-operate to beat the tories. All this wasted effort in the pursuit of mutual self destruction. The problem seems to be with the labour party, they always screw over minor parties who stand aside for them. It seems to be part of their tribal pathology which has really just prevented them from winning anything for the last 11 years. I am not sure that they have really changed track now.

    Blair got it right as usual; he was in favour of co-operation with the LDs.

    If only TB had been Lab leader for 13 years and PM for 10!
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,255
    Congratulations to the Liberal Democrats, for a comfortable win in Bexley last night. A shame they didn't put in even less effort, or they'd have won by more.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359

    The by-election is yet more evidence of tactical voting between Labour and the Lib Dems, this will be hugely important if repeated at a GE

    In a by election it can be obvious who is standing aside. In a General election so much of the campaign is national and it doesn't work anywhere near as effectively.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,568

    The by-election is yet more evidence of tactical voting between Labour and the Lib Dems, this will be hugely important if repeated at a GE

    The only evidence from this by election is that Labour are (still, despite everything) nowhere well enough to win the next election and even a hung parliament looks off the table based on this result.
  • On topic, I'd quibble on two points.

    Firstly, in relation to "this is happening without any agreement or talks between the red and orange camps", I very much doubt there has been no cross-party discussion on this. All very low key and informal, no doubt, but there is pretty plainly a truce in place. In North Shropshire, the original Lib Dem idea was an independent, anti-sleaze crusader, and there were some discussions at that point I am sure.

    Secondly, while I think it is the right strategy, the lost deposits do indicate a weakness of sorts. This isn't a new thing but is more true now than pre-2010... the Lib Dems just aren't the "natural" party of protest any more. At one time, the Lib Dems would have picked up some votes in OB&S even with an extremely low key campaign, just on the "plague on all their houses" basis, soaking up some of the stay at home Tories. Nowhere near enough to be in contention, but saved deposit.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,094
    Germany: CDU/CSU vs. SPD
    Australia: Liberal/National vs. Labor
    United Kingdom: Labour/LibDem vs. Conservatives ???
  • Dulce et decorum est


  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    GIN1138 said:



    Boris still remains, remarkably, despite everything, a hugely electorally successful politician.

    Indeed, Teflon!

    Just like Tony Blair.
    Really?

    Looks more like a shit magnet the last few months!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,823
    IshmaelZ said:

    Conservative MPs have warned that it may be "too late" to shore up support in North Shropshire, with just two weeks before the next by-election.

    Boris Johnson has held on to his party’s seat in Old Bexley and Sidcup, but the Conservative majority was slashed from almost 19,000 to just 4,478. Louie French, the Tory candidate, won the election triggered by the death of James Brokenshire with a 51.4 per cent share of the vote, compared with Labour’s 30.8 per cent.

    Backbenchers praised Justin Tomlinson, the deputy party chairman, for running a "slick" and "very solid campaign", which one said was "the best I've seen in terms of competency".

    His team will now switch their focus to North Shropshire, with a vote on Dec 16 triggered by the resignation of Owen Paterson amid the row over sleaze allegations.

    One said today's result was "a relief", but added: "North Shropshire will be different because there is a more organised opposition in place, and other parties are taking it more seriously."

    "Vibes coming back are not good," said one. "JT's team switch to Shropshire on Monday but I suspect it'll be too late.. he can't be everywhere and was determined to get [Old Bexley] over the line."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/03/boris-johnson-news-bexley-by-election-starmer-labour-brexit/

    Absolutely clunking expectation management, but presumably the reason they are saying they are worried is they are actually worried

    That is bizarre. I expect to see that quoted on LD leaflets. The whole point of a LD campaign is to say we are close, just a bit more and we can win. If a Tory is saying this they are doing the LD job for them.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    Dulce et decorum est


    I wonder what calibre he was? And what nature of ammunition it was?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,094

    Dulce et decorum est


    We’ve all been there.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Good grief news is depressing.
    Football thuggery and child torture.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    Pulpstar said:

    So the libdems are de mobilising in Shropshire? The dream of spanking Boris shamefaced bottom in a by election is over?

    Boris still remains, remarkably, despite everything, a hugely electorally successful politician.

    EH ?!

    That's an absolubtely bizarre & total non sequitur of an inference from the thread header
    So the libdems are de mobilising in Shropshire?

    Now I have a vision of a Char 2C carrying a horde of men in sandals, driving over a Covenanter....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,334
    Jonathan said:

    Dulce et decorum est


    We’ve all been there.
    No, that particular A&E is not familiar to me.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,094
    Carnyx said:

    Dulce et decorum est


    I wonder what calibre he was? And what nature of ammunition it was?
    It’s a good catch, I wonder if he fancies joining the English Cricket team slips.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,334
    Carnyx said:

    Dulce et decorum est


    I wonder what calibre he was? And what nature of ammunition it was?
    A penetrating round of some sort.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,018

    The by-election is yet more evidence of tactical voting between Labour and the Lib Dems, this will be hugely important if repeated at a GE

    PMSL the swing to the Opposition was less than average in a by-election.

    Despite the Lib Dems losing share, Labour's share rise was very poor for a by-election.

    If a GE is repeated based on this I'd expect an increased Tory majority.
    He is in his own little world Philip.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    Jonathan said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dulce et decorum est


    I wonder what calibre he was? And what nature of ammunition it was?
    It’s a good catch, I wonder if he fancies joining the English Cricket team slips.
    It might indeed have been a spherical shell, who knows how old it was?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    kjh said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Conservative MPs have warned that it may be "too late" to shore up support in North Shropshire, with just two weeks before the next by-election.

    Boris Johnson has held on to his party’s seat in Old Bexley and Sidcup, but the Conservative majority was slashed from almost 19,000 to just 4,478. Louie French, the Tory candidate, won the election triggered by the death of James Brokenshire with a 51.4 per cent share of the vote, compared with Labour’s 30.8 per cent.

    Backbenchers praised Justin Tomlinson, the deputy party chairman, for running a "slick" and "very solid campaign", which one said was "the best I've seen in terms of competency".

    His team will now switch their focus to North Shropshire, with a vote on Dec 16 triggered by the resignation of Owen Paterson amid the row over sleaze allegations.

    One said today's result was "a relief", but added: "North Shropshire will be different because there is a more organised opposition in place, and other parties are taking it more seriously."

    "Vibes coming back are not good," said one. "JT's team switch to Shropshire on Monday but I suspect it'll be too late.. he can't be everywhere and was determined to get [Old Bexley] over the line."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/03/boris-johnson-news-bexley-by-election-starmer-labour-brexit/

    Absolutely clunking expectation management, but presumably the reason they are saying they are worried is they are actually worried

    That is bizarre. I expect to see that quoted on LD leaflets. The whole point of a LD campaign is to say we are close, just a bit more and we can win. If a Tory is saying this they are doing the LD job for them.
    Indeed. However. If this is true it does speak to the Londoncentric nature of strategy. It was never seriously predicted by anyone that OBS was under threat.
    So no "getting over the line" was necessary. That was done weeks ago. If not always the case.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,018
    GIN1138 said:

    Posted without comment.

    CON: 36% (-)
    LAB: 33% (-2)
    GRN: 9% (+1)
    LDEM: 9% (+2)
    REFUK: 6%

    via
    @YouGov

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1466705686369378305

    SKS fans please explain!!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    kjh said:

    So the libdems are de mobilising in Shropshire? The dream of spanking Boris shamefaced bottom in a by election is over?

    Boris still remains, remarkably, despite everything, a hugely electorally successful politician.

    LOL, where did that 'So' come from.

    If you think the LDs are demobilising in NS and not dreaming of spanking Boris's bottom in a by election any more, I think you are very much mistaken. I mean where on earth did you get that from?

    Whether they do or not is another matter, but what on earth is your evidence for such a bizarre statement?
    Easy to answer. I completely misunderstood the mason quote in previously thread about libdems de mobilising. That was in old bex and Sid. Sorry.

    Really genuine sorry because I am on Lib Dem’s weeks ago at 3-1 and I don’t want anyone else to have a good price after the flak I took!

    😝
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,094
    edited December 2021

    GIN1138 said:

    Posted without comment.

    CON: 36% (-)
    LAB: 33% (-2)
    GRN: 9% (+1)
    LDEM: 9% (+2)
    REFUK: 6%

    via
    @YouGov

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1466705686369378305

    SKS fans please explain!!
    Wahey, BJOs popped up for a gloat and a dig. Nice. No doubt to claim that Starmer has squandered the golden inheritance bequeathed to him by Corbyn.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    edited December 2021

    Pulpstar said:

    So the libdems are de mobilising in Shropshire? The dream of spanking Boris shamefaced bottom in a by election is over?

    Boris still remains, remarkably, despite everything, a hugely electorally successful politician.

    EH ?!

    That's an absolubtely bizarre & total non sequitur of an inference from the thread header
    So the libdems are de mobilising in Shropshire?

    Now I have a vision of a Char 2C carrying a horde of men in sandals, driving over a Covenanter....
    I notice your allusion to the (Westminster) parliamentarty party being able to fit inside one. But naughty you: 'persons in sandals' is correct term. Ms Moran for instance would be v. upset.

    (for those who don't know what a 2c was:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLy8i0nv44U )

    PS If you left the women out you'd be able to get them into a Schneider CA1 with room to spare
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,018
    edited December 2021
    EHRC investigating Labour complaints process accusing the SKS process of antisemitism including:


    "The continued unfair targeting of Jewish members of the Party and in particular Jewish members with particular beliefs set out in further detail below, which appears to be entirely contrary to the findings of the EHRC Report and the purpose of the Action Plan"


    "The unfair procedures the Party is continuing to follow in respect of disciplinary proceedings
    against individual members, in breach of principles of fairness, natural justice and
    recommendations made by both the EHRC, and by Baroness Shami Chakrabarti in her report
    published on 30 June 2016, following her inquiry into antisemitism in the Party"

    Will be interested what they conclude.
  • The by-election is yet more evidence of tactical voting between Labour and the Lib Dems, this will be hugely important if repeated at a GE

    PMSL the swing to the Opposition was less than average in a by-election.

    Despite the Lib Dems losing share, Labour's share rise was very poor for a by-election.

    If a GE is repeated based on this I'd expect an increased Tory majority.
    I agree that the LAB vote move was very small for a by-election but this seat was never seriously in contention and this was plain for all to see.

    N Shropshire should be the same. This is a strong Leave seat where the LDs start in third and where the %age of grads is just about average. So none of the factors that would normally be helpful.

    What gives the LDs an edge is having a powerful message in relation to the ex-MP. Whether an intense campaign will be enough I don't know. The message I've been seeing from campaign workers is that there is enough for them to believe they are in with a fighting chance. LD campaigns are able to reach many Tory voters in a way that Labour has never been able to do.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    Northstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Posted without comment.

    CON: 36% (-)
    LAB: 33% (-2)
    GRN: 9% (+1)
    LDEM: 9% (+2)
    REFUK: 6%

    via
    @YouGov

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1466705686369378305

    This is just the Lib Dem/Labour vote swapping strategy working as intended…
    Truth is, if you subtract all the yougov from list of polls the line to draw is less erratic. Not only yougov out of kilter with such high greens, but yougov bounce up and down more than anyone else. Either they genius and everyone else off kilter, or yougov are screwing up the average. 🤷‍♀️
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,018

    The by-election is yet more evidence of tactical voting between Labour and the Lib Dems, this will be hugely important if repeated at a GE

    PMSL the swing to the Opposition was less than average in a by-election.

    Despite the Lib Dems losing share, Labour's share rise was very poor for a by-election.

    If a GE is repeated based on this I'd expect an increased Tory majority.
    I agree that the LAB vote move was very small for a by-election but this seat was never seriously in contention and this was plain for all to see.

    N Shropshire should be the same. This is a strong Leave seat where the LDs start in third and where the %age of grads is just about average. So none of the factors that would normally be helpful.

    What gives the LDs an edge is having a powerful message in relation to the ex-MP. Whether an intense campaign will be enough I don't know. The message I've been seeing from campaign workers is that there is enough for them to believe they are in with a fighting chance. LD campaigns are able to reach many Tory voters in a way that Labour has never been able to do.
    Good luck to the LDs Mike.

    I hope they pull it off.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    edited December 2021
    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So the libdems are de mobilising in Shropshire? The dream of spanking Boris shamefaced bottom in a by election is over?

    Boris still remains, remarkably, despite everything, a hugely electorally successful politician.

    EH ?!

    That's an absolubtely bizarre & total non sequitur of an inference from the thread header
    So the libdems are de mobilising in Shropshire?

    Now I have a vision of a Char 2C carrying a horde of men in sandals, driving over a Covenanter....
    I notice your allusion to the (Westminster) parliamentarty party being able to fit inside one. But naughty you: 'persons in sandals' is correct term. Ms Moran for instance would be v. upset.

    (for those who don't know what a 2c was:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLy8i0nv44U )

    PS If you left the women out you'd be able to get them into a Schneider CA1 with room to spare
    To be fair, you could a fair proportion of the House of Commons inside and on top of a Char 2C.

    I think you post is the first time in a hundred years that anyone has accused a Schneider CA1 of having "room to spare"

    EDIT - Better video of the Char 2C at - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dgLWKmLVJA
  • The by-election is yet more evidence of tactical voting between Labour and the Lib Dems, this will be hugely important if repeated at a GE

    PMSL the swing to the Opposition was less than average in a by-election.

    Despite the Lib Dems losing share, Labour's share rise was very poor for a by-election.

    If a GE is repeated based on this I'd expect an increased Tory majority.
    I agree that the LAB vote move was very small for a by-election but this seat was never seriously in contention and this was plain for all to see.

    N Shropshire should be the same. This is a strong Leave seat where the LDs start in third and where the %age of grads is just about average. So none of the factors that would normally be helpful.

    What gives the LDs an edge is having a powerful message in relation to the ex-MP. Whether an intense campaign will be enough I don't know. The message I've been seeing from campaign workers is that there is enough for them to believe they are in with a fighting chance. LD campaigns are able to reach many Tory voters in a way that Labour has never been able to do.
    Surely what gives the LDs an edge is it being a midterm by-election?

    The LDs have a great track record in by-elections, far better than in General Elections. Frequently winning seats in by-elections, even seats they can't then go on to hold in the General Election.

    This seat may not be an appropriate target seat for a General Election, but the LDs should be in by-elections as they generally are and if Labour were credible about seeking government at the next election surely they should have been able to put in the legwork for yesterday's one.
  • If Corbyn had done what Starmer did BJO would be telling us what a great leader Corbyn was.

    The result was consistent with the polls, both parties are more or less tied at present and I think soon Labour will pull ahead consistently.

    I'll stick a few pounds on a Hung Parliament over the weekend.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,511

    The by-election is yet more evidence of tactical voting between Labour and the Lib Dems, this will be hugely important if repeated at a GE

    PMSL the swing to the Opposition was less than average in a by-election.

    Despite the Lib Dems losing share, Labour's share rise was very poor for a by-election.

    If a GE is repeated based on this I'd expect an increased Tory majority.
    I agree that the LAB vote move was very small for a by-election but this seat was never seriously in contention and this was plain for all to see.

    N Shropshire should be the same. This is a strong Leave seat where the LDs start in third and where the %age of grads is just about average. So none of the factors that would normally be helpful.

    What gives the LDs an edge is having a powerful message in relation to the ex-MP. Whether an intense campaign will be enough I don't know. The message I've been seeing from campaign workers is that there is enough for them to believe they are in with a fighting chance. LD campaigns are able to reach many Tory voters in a way that Labour has never been able to do.
    Yes, logic tells me that an opposition party is more likely to have a chance where the incumbent has been disgraced (NS) than where a popular incumbent has prematurely died (OBS).

    As for Labour's performance last night, it was mediocre rather than awful. There aren't that many seats where the demographics etc. are less favourable to Labour - I mean, just the very name "Old Bexley and Sidcup" sounds Tory. So no surprise to me, and not hugely informative.
  • https://twitter.com/adrianhughes0/status/1466763872447209478

    Not really sure how anyone can say this isn't good for Labour when it's their best performance here since 2001.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664

    The by-election is yet more evidence of tactical voting between Labour and the Lib Dems, this will be hugely important if repeated at a GE

    PMSL the swing to the Opposition was less than average in a by-election.

    Despite the Lib Dems losing share, Labour's share rise was very poor for a by-election.

    If a GE is repeated based on this I'd expect an increased Tory majority.
    I agree that the LAB vote move was very small for a by-election but this seat was never seriously in contention and this was plain for all to see.

    N Shropshire should be the same. This is a strong Leave seat where the LDs start in third and where the %age of grads is just about average. So none of the factors that would normally be helpful.

    What gives the LDs an edge is having a powerful message in relation to the ex-MP. Whether an intense campaign will be enough I don't know. The message I've been seeing from campaign workers is that there is enough for them to believe they are in with a fighting chance. LD campaigns are able to reach many Tory voters in a way that Labour has never been able to do.
    Lib Dems didn't just come third in NS in GE 2019, they only got 10% of the vote. I can't see it myself.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    ClippP said:

    kjh said:

    So the libdems are de mobilising in Shropshire? The dream of spanking Boris shamefaced bottom in a by election is over?

    Boris still remains, remarkably, despite everything, a hugely electorally successful politician.

    LOL, where did that 'So' come from.

    If you think the LDs are demobilising in NS and not dreaming of spanking Boris's bottom in a by election any more, I think you are very much mistaken. I mean where on earth did you get that from?

    Whether they do or not is another matter, but what on earth is your evidence for such a bizarre statement?
    I think he is just mimicking the Tory line - to destruction of course. A lot of our PB Tories just want the Lib Dems to collapse and disappear - so they are being positive for Labour.
    Nope she isn’t mimicking a Tory line as she is a libdem supporter just trying to be honestly helpful.
    Very sorry kjh you are clearly running the libdem campaign and had melt down when you read my post.
    It was honestly the Mason quote in previous thread where he is wrong to say Lib Dem’s demobilising he should have said demobilised as it made me think of current not past. 🤦‍♀️

    My original post was total rubbish. But it still got a like!
  • Carnyx said:

    Dulce et decorum est


    I wonder what calibre he was? And what nature of ammunition it was?
    He's dropped a bumshell..

    I hear the Doctors are trolling him; "We're going to try to bring you out of your she.. sorry, bring your shell out of you"
  • The by-election is yet more evidence of tactical voting between Labour and the Lib Dems, this will be hugely important if repeated at a GE

    PMSL the swing to the Opposition was less than average in a by-election.

    Despite the Lib Dems losing share, Labour's share rise was very poor for a by-election.

    If a GE is repeated based on this I'd expect an increased Tory majority.
    I agree that the LAB vote move was very small for a by-election but this seat was never seriously in contention and this was plain for all to see.

    N Shropshire should be the same. This is a strong Leave seat where the LDs start in third and where the %age of grads is just about average. So none of the factors that would normally be helpful.

    What gives the LDs an edge is having a powerful message in relation to the ex-MP. Whether an intense campaign will be enough I don't know. The message I've been seeing from campaign workers is that there is enough for them to believe they are in with a fighting chance. LD campaigns are able to reach many Tory voters in a way that Labour has never been able to do.
    Yes, logic tells me that an opposition party is more likely to have a chance where the incumbent has been disgraced (NS) than where a popular incumbent has prematurely died (OBS).

    As for Labour's performance last night, it was mediocre rather than awful. There aren't that many seats where the demographics etc. are less favourable to Labour - I mean, just the very name "Old Bexley and Sidcup" sounds Tory. So no surprise to me, and not hugely informative.
    While the demographics may not be ideal for Labour, the seat is still in London which is where a very large proportion of Labour activists live.

    If Labour were serious then they could surely have flooded the area with Labour activists drawn from all across London in a way they could never do in a General Election. Just as the Lib Dems are capable of doing in by-elections but not capable of replicating in General Elections.

    Though having spoken to some Labour activists in the past, perhaps its fortuitous that they didn't.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,018
    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Posted without comment.

    CON: 36% (-)
    LAB: 33% (-2)
    GRN: 9% (+1)
    LDEM: 9% (+2)
    REFUK: 6%

    via
    @YouGov

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1466705686369378305

    SKS fans please explain!!
    Wahey, BJOs popped up for a gloat and a dig. Nice. No doubt to claim that Starmer has squandered the golden inheritance bequeathed to him by Corbyn.
    It literally is impossible to mount any positive argument to defend SKS's shit performance without using "yeah but Corbyn"

    4 years ago Lab were 8 pts ahead under yeah but Corbyn as opposed to 3 pts behind

    Is all we are going to get for the next 3 years excuses involving yeah but Corbyn?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004

    GIN1138 said:



    Boris still remains, remarkably, despite everything, a hugely electorally successful politician.

    Indeed, Teflon!

    Just like Tony Blair.
    Maybe like starting a relationship with the wrong person, people like the idea of Boris, the new Churchill, not the real Boris because the pain of being governed by the real Boris havn’t slapped them in the face and thrown them out in the street yet!
    I thought the Johnsons tended to prefer a slap on the backside?
    Only as friendly gesture not angry one 🍑
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    Carnyx said:

    Dulce et decorum est


    I wonder what calibre he was? And what nature of ammunition it was?
    He's dropped a bumshell..

    I hear the Doctors are trolling him; "We're going to try to bring you out of your she.. sorry, bring your shell out of you"
    The explanation is simple:

    he was loaded.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    Carnyx said:

    Dulce et decorum est


    I wonder what calibre he was? And what nature of ammunition it was?
    He's dropped a bumshell..

    I hear the Doctors are trolling him; "We're going to try to bring you out of your she.. sorry, bring your shell out of you"
    Certainly not a rocket artillery round, like that footie fan in London a few months ago.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    Pulpstar said:

    So the libdems are de mobilising in Shropshire? The dream of spanking Boris shamefaced bottom in a by election is over?

    Boris still remains, remarkably, despite everything, a hugely electorally successful politician.

    EH ?!

    That's an absolubtely bizarre & total non sequitur of an inference from the thread header
    Yes. Sorry sorry sorry. For some silly reason I thought reporter saying libdems demobilising on last thread meant future one not old one.
  • Belgium is not going into lockdown. It is however closing schools ONLY. I wouldn't like to be a parent there (apologies for the Comical Dave link): https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1466764610606936070
  • On topic, I'd quibble on two points.

    Firstly, in relation to "this is happening without any agreement or talks between the red and orange camps", I very much doubt there has been no cross-party discussion on this. All very low key and informal, no doubt, but there is pretty plainly a truce in place. In North Shropshire, the original Lib Dem idea was an independent, anti-sleaze crusader, and there were some discussions at that point I am sure.

    Secondly, while I think it is the right strategy, the lost deposits do indicate a weakness of sorts. This isn't a new thing but is more true now than pre-2010... the Lib Dems just aren't the "natural" party of protest any more. At one time, the Lib Dems would have picked up some votes in OB&S even with an extremely low key campaign, just on the "plague on all their houses" basis, soaking up some of the stay at home Tories. Nowhere near enough to be in contention, but saved deposit.

    Could it be that the electorate is better informed than in the past and make a judgement as to who can beat the defending party? Due to social media perhaps?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,018

    https://twitter.com/adrianhughes0/status/1466763872447209478

    Not really sure how anyone can say this isn't good for Labour when it's their best performance here since 2001.

    Best result with a record low number of votes.

    Only 6,000 voted Labour even when they were the only way to beat the Tories compared to 14,000 in 2017 GE

    How many of the 6,000 were these LD transfers you mention?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    Not too disappointed by Bexley but I was hoping for a bigger swing. What it reinforces for me is how hard it’ll be to deprive the Cons of a majority at the next election. They have such a strong position going in - an 80 seat majority which if anything you need to adjust upwards for the impact of boundary changes and the (removed) impact of Farage. One might hope for Tice to compensate for the latter but it looks unlikely based on his flop here.

    What particularly concerns me is the high floor to their vote. They have their regular true blue voters plus (not all but most) Leavers. Of course there’s a big overlap there but even so I think we’re talking 35% as base camp. It doesn’t leave much of a climb from there to FPTP majority territory, esp when the spread of their vote is efficient.

    And I think that’s the key to the election – relative efficiency of the vote. Lab/LD and their voters need to work as a team. My election pricing atm is 60% Con majority vs 40% hung parliament, but if I knew that SKS and SED were going to put their heads together and thrash out a serious GTTO plan I would flip that around.
  • GlomGlom Posts: 13
    In light of the horror story being discussed earlier, a further question is raised.

    One of the evil monsters involved has her own children apparently. Is it appropriate that they be left in her custody? Even if it doesn't seem like they are in danger of receiving the same treatment, we should surely be concerned about them developing into sociopaths themselves.

    It seems like for the sake of potential future victims, they should be removed to a more positive environment.
  • Throw away the key on these evil people

    Father is jailed for 21 years and his partner for a minimum of 29 years over the torture and killing of six-year-old Arthur Labinjo-Hughes
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-59522243
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dulce et decorum est


    I wonder what calibre he was? And what nature of ammunition it was?
    He's dropped a bumshell..

    I hear the Doctors are trolling him; "We're going to try to bring you out of your she.. sorry, bring your shell out of you"
    The explanation is simple:

    he was loaded.
    Called in the bum squad
  • The by-election is yet more evidence of tactical voting between Labour and the Lib Dems, this will be hugely important if repeated at a GE

    PMSL the swing to the Opposition was less than average in a by-election.

    Despite the Lib Dems losing share, Labour's share rise was very poor for a by-election.

    If a GE is repeated based on this I'd expect an increased Tory majority.
    I agree that the LAB vote move was very small for a by-election but this seat was never seriously in contention and this was plain for all to see.

    N Shropshire should be the same. This is a strong Leave seat where the LDs start in third and where the %age of grads is just about average. So none of the factors that would normally be helpful.

    What gives the LDs an edge is having a powerful message in relation to the ex-MP. Whether an intense campaign will be enough I don't know. The message I've been seeing from campaign workers is that there is enough for them to believe they are in with a fighting chance. LD campaigns are able to reach many Tory voters in a way that Labour has never been able to do.
    While I agree with your comments on the lib dems, and have money on them in NS, I'm not sure everyone would agree that "this seat was never seriously in contention".

    Take for example, a header on the world's premier political betting site, by a guy called Mike Smithson, on December 1st, which was very keen to warn us that the Tories' chances in OBS were very much overstated.

    Anyway, I digress, like you I believe the lib dems have an excellent chance in NS and my bank balance very much hopes they succeed.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664
    kinabalu said:

    Not too disappointed by Bexley but I was hoping for a bigger swing. What it reinforces for me is how hard it’ll be to deprive the Cons of a majority at the next election. They have such a strong position going in - an 80 seat majority which if anything you need to adjust upwards for the impact of boundary changes and the (removed) impact of Farage. One might hope for Tice to compensate for the latter but it looks unlikely based on his flop here.

    What particularly concerns me is the high floor to their vote. They have their regular true blue voters plus (not all but most) Leavers. Of course there’s a big overlap there but even so I think we’re talking 35% as base camp. It doesn’t leave much of a climb from there to FPTP majority territory, esp when the spread of their vote is efficient.

    And I think that’s the key to the election – relative efficiency of the vote. Lab/LD and their voters need to work as a team. My election pricing atm is 60% Con majority vs 40% hung parliament, but if I knew that SKS and SED were going to put their heads together and thrash out a serious GTTO plan I would flip that around.

    There was no swing really - not if you factor in the LD decline. In fact it went the other way if you lump Tice in with the CP.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,334
    RIP Antony Sher.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,920
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not too disappointed by Bexley but I was hoping for a bigger swing. What it reinforces for me is how hard it’ll be to deprive the Cons of a majority at the next election. They have such a strong position going in - an 80 seat majority which if anything you need to adjust upwards for the impact of boundary changes and the (removed) impact of Farage. One might hope for Tice to compensate for the latter but it looks unlikely based on his flop here.

    What particularly concerns me is the high floor to their vote. They have their regular true blue voters plus (not all but most) Leavers. Of course there’s a big overlap there but even so I think we’re talking 35% as base camp. It doesn’t leave much of a climb from there to FPTP majority territory, esp when the spread of their vote is efficient.

    And I think that’s the key to the election – relative efficiency of the vote. Lab/LD and their voters need to work as a team. My election pricing atm is 60% Con majority vs 40% hung parliament, but if I knew that SKS and SED were going to put their heads together and thrash out a serious GTTO plan I would flip that around.

    There was no swing really - not if you factor in the LD decline. In fact it went the other way if you lump Tice in with the CP.
    Eh? The swing was 10.2%. The LD decline was 3%.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 1,167
    This isn't the first time there has been a high-profile by-election in N Shropshire.

    In 1961, there was a by-election in the Oswestry seat (the predecessor for N Shropshire) with two candidates who would later become pretty well-known. One was John Biffen, defending for the Conservatives, and the other was Brian Walden for Labour.

    Biffen became a cabinet minister under Mrs T (described as "semi-detached" by Bernard Ingham, before departing the cabinet). Biffen was actually an interesting character and very individualistic in his take on things. A follower of Enoch Powell in some respects.

    Brian Walden, of course, achieved fame as presenter of Weekend World after a spell as a Labour MP. Considered quite sympathetic to Mrs T, but a pretty formidable interviewer.

    The bare-bones of the by-election are on wiki, but I dimly remember reading an account of the by-election which was regarded as pretty high stakes at the time.

    BTW - the Tories held, and Libs were second.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1961_Oswestry_by-election

  • felixfelix Posts: 13,843

    Dulce et decorum est


    I wonder what Corporal Jones would have said...
  • GlomGlom Posts: 13
    AlistairM said:

    Throw away the key on these evil people

    Father is jailed for 21 years and his partner for a minimum of 29 years over the torture and killing of six-year-old Arthur Labinjo-Hughes
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-59522243

    How minimum is minimum? I know lots of things get said about our criminal justice system but what is the real situation. I'm more concerned she never be placed in a role of care ever again.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,094
    Nigelb said:

    RIP Antony Sher.

    Indeed. One of my favourites. Fondly remember him delivering a soliloquy hanging upside down on a rope as Tamberline.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/dec/03/england-fan-disorder-at-euro-2020-final-almost-led-to-deaths-review-finds

    An official from the Sports Grounds Safety Authority told the review: “Thank God England lost. If they had won you would have to open the doors to let people out and the stadium would have been stormed.”

    Finally a sentiment we can all get behind.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    edited December 2021
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not too disappointed by Bexley but I was hoping for a bigger swing. What it reinforces for me is how hard it’ll be to deprive the Cons of a majority at the next election. They have such a strong position going in - an 80 seat majority which if anything you need to adjust upwards for the impact of boundary changes and the (removed) impact of Farage. One might hope for Tice to compensate for the latter but it looks unlikely based on his flop here.

    What particularly concerns me is the high floor to their vote. They have their regular true blue voters plus (not all but most) Leavers. Of course there’s a big overlap there but even so I think we’re talking 35% as base camp. It doesn’t leave much of a climb from there to FPTP majority territory, esp when the spread of their vote is efficient.

    And I think that’s the key to the election – relative efficiency of the vote. Lab/LD and their voters need to work as a team. My election pricing atm is 60% Con majority vs 40% hung parliament, but if I knew that SKS and SED were going to put their heads together and thrash out a serious GTTO plan I would flip that around.

    There was no swing really - not if you factor in the LD decline. In fact it went the other way if you lump Tice in with the CP.
    Guess you could say Cons lost votes to Tice and LDs went to Lab, leaving the core swing as Con to No Vote. Whichever way you analyze it, it's made me shorten Con majority. Looks value at 2.6. Although not as good value as laying Lab majority at 6.4.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,094

    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Posted without comment.

    CON: 36% (-)
    LAB: 33% (-2)
    GRN: 9% (+1)
    LDEM: 9% (+2)
    REFUK: 6%

    via
    @YouGov

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1466705686369378305

    SKS fans please explain!!
    Wahey, BJOs popped up for a gloat and a dig. Nice. No doubt to claim that Starmer has squandered the golden inheritance bequeathed to him by Corbyn.
    It literally is impossible to mount any positive argument to defend SKS's shit performance without using "yeah but Corbyn"

    4 years ago Lab were 8 pts ahead under yeah but Corbyn as opposed to 3 pts behind

    Is all we are going to get for the next 3 years excuses involving yeah but Corbyn?
    Why not? It will offer contrast from your objective and varied critique.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004

    The by-election is yet more evidence of tactical voting between Labour and the Lib Dems, this will be hugely important if repeated at a GE

    PMSL the swing to the Opposition was less than average in a by-election.

    Despite the Lib Dems losing share, Labour's share rise was very poor for a by-election.

    If a GE is repeated based on this I'd expect an increased Tory majority.
    I agree that the LAB vote move was very small for a by-election but this seat was never seriously in contention and this was plain for all to see.

    N Shropshire should be the same. This is a strong Leave seat where the LDs start in third and where the %age of grads is just about average. So none of the factors that would normally be helpful.

    What gives the LDs an edge is having a powerful message in relation to the ex-MP. Whether an intense campaign will be enough I don't know. The message I've been seeing from campaign workers is that there is enough for them to believe they are in with a fighting chance. LD campaigns are able to reach many Tory voters in a way that Labour has never been able to do.
    Maybe leave seat becomes a term from the past, and sleaze seat is term from future?

    Might be insulting to leavers to say they put leave ahead of sleaze and corruption, if they can say they want leave AND slick non sleazy government.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    Glom said:

    In light of the horror story being discussed earlier, a further question is raised.

    One of the evil monsters involved has her own children apparently. Is it appropriate that they be left in her custody? Even if it doesn't seem like they are in danger of receiving the same treatment, we should surely be concerned about them developing into sociopaths themselves.

    It seems like for the sake of potential future victims, they should be removed to a more positive environment.

    Given she (The biological mum) is in jail for stabbing her own partner to death I'd hope not. What an appallingly failed child poor Arthur was.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664
    edited December 2021

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not too disappointed by Bexley but I was hoping for a bigger swing. What it reinforces for me is how hard it’ll be to deprive the Cons of a majority at the next election. They have such a strong position going in - an 80 seat majority which if anything you need to adjust upwards for the impact of boundary changes and the (removed) impact of Farage. One might hope for Tice to compensate for the latter but it looks unlikely based on his flop here.

    What particularly concerns me is the high floor to their vote. They have their regular true blue voters plus (not all but most) Leavers. Of course there’s a big overlap there but even so I think we’re talking 35% as base camp. It doesn’t leave much of a climb from there to FPTP majority territory, esp when the spread of their vote is efficient.

    And I think that’s the key to the election – relative efficiency of the vote. Lab/LD and their voters need to work as a team. My election pricing atm is 60% Con majority vs 40% hung parliament, but if I knew that SKS and SED were going to put their heads together and thrash out a serious GTTO plan I would flip that around.

    There was no swing really - not if you factor in the LD decline. In fact it went the other way if you lump Tice in with the CP.
    Eh? The swing was 10.2%. The LD decline was 3%.
    Ok fair enough.

    I was looking at vote share 2019 vs yesterday.

    LP 23.5 up to 30.9
    LD 8.3 down to 3.0

    Tice 6.6%
  • pingping Posts: 1,679
    Arthur Labinjo-Hughes killers - stepmom sentenced to minimum 29 years, father sentenced to 21 years
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,334
    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    RIP Antony Sher.

    Indeed. One of my favourites. Fondly remember him delivering a soliloquy hanging upside down on a rope as Tamberline.
    Yes, he had some extraordinary performances. I was lucky enough to see the early 80s Richard III.

    His recent(ish) Falstaff was a real disappointment. Kids couldn't understand why I'd been excited to see the production.
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