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LD by-election objectives – Win or lose deposit – politicalbetting.com
LD by-election objectives – Win or lose deposit – politicalbetting.com
There was a time when a Lib Dem lost deposit at a Westminster by-election was seen by commentators as evidence of decline. Well no more. The chart shows the party’s shares at the four English by-elections so far in 2021 which illustrates the strategy and how it is working.
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Boris still remains, remarkably, despite everything, a hugely electorally successful politician.
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/02/behind-scenes-boris-macrons-fractured-double-act/
@andrew_lilico
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44m
So until we have some better handle on those two things:
a) How much does omicron escape 3-dose or 2+dose immunity?
b) How intrinsically infectious is omicron relative to delta?
we've no idea whether we have any kind of potential problem here at all.
Yes C&A was a success, as relatively meaningless midterm by-elections can tend to be. North Shropshire may be the same.
But there's no success on the others. Labour didn't even come close in Bexley and the swing was quite dismal for a by-election so lets not pretend it was all tactical and a successful plan.
Just like Tony Blair.
CON: 36% (-)
LAB: 33% (-2)
GRN: 9% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (+2)
REFUK: 6%
via
@YouGov
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1466705686369378305
I think the interesting question is more (as @algarkirk pointed out) why is Labour -- with a personable candidate born & bred in Croesowallt -- not trying to win a constituency in which they were clearly in second place at GE 2019.
It makes Labour look weak & dispirited. It makes SKS look weak & dispirited.
Whether the Tories hold Shropshire North or not does not amount to a hill of beans when they have a majority of 80.
From the POV if the Labour, it is better to fight this and make some good progress, rather than not fight & go backwards.
Even if Helen Wealthy White-Settler -- or whatever her name is -- wins for the LibDems, she will lose the seat at the next GE.
Boris Johnson has held on to his party’s seat in Old Bexley and Sidcup, but the Conservative majority was slashed from almost 19,000 to just 4,478. Louie French, the Tory candidate, won the election triggered by the death of James Brokenshire with a 51.4 per cent share of the vote, compared with Labour’s 30.8 per cent.
Backbenchers praised Justin Tomlinson, the deputy party chairman, for running a "slick" and "very solid campaign", which one said was "the best I've seen in terms of competency".
His team will now switch their focus to North Shropshire, with a vote on Dec 16 triggered by the resignation of Owen Paterson amid the row over sleaze allegations.
One said today's result was "a relief", but added: "North Shropshire will be different because there is a more organised opposition in place, and other parties are taking it more seriously."
"Vibes coming back are not good," said one. "JT's team switch to Shropshire on Monday but I suspect it'll be too late.. he can't be everywhere and was determined to get [Old Bexley] over the line."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/03/boris-johnson-news-bexley-by-election-starmer-labour-brexit/
Absolutely clunking expectation management, but presumably the reason they are saying they are worried is they are actually worried
Labour really are weak not to be trying. Weak, weak, weak.
Why was the antisemitic pensioner "value" at 1.5 when the campaign began?
even better Oswestry.
If you think the LDs are demobilising in NS and not dreaming of spanking Boris's bottom in a by election any more, I think you are very much mistaken. I mean where on earth did you get that from?
Whether they do or not is another matter, but what on earth is your evidence for such a bizarre statement?
In a system geared to 2 parties, which ours is, the third party has about three options apart from mere grandstanding.
It can be the party that makes sure the left doesn't prevail
It can be the party that makes sure the right doesn't prevail
or it can be a party which stands for something that can never be in government but can be a long term force for good.
In the last decades, with the ill fated coalition being the tipping point, it has gone from being a badly organised influencer for good, to the party that kept the left out, to now, and most emphatically, being the party to help put the Tories out and help put Labour in.
There is nowhere (practically) where Lab and LD compete for a seat. This is telling. And the LDs cannot stand anywhere as the compromise moderation different party. It is emphatically progressive centre left. Its one job now is to ensure that Tories don't form a government.
This may be sensible, but it does give the centre right a great deal of ammunition when it comes to a general election, irrelevant though it is in between.
That's an absolubtely bizarre & total non sequitur of an inference from the thread header
Despite the Lib Dems losing share, Labour's share rise was very poor for a by-election.
If a GE is repeated based on this I'd expect an increased Tory majority.
Blair got it right as usual; he was in favour of co-operation with the LDs.
Firstly, in relation to "this is happening without any agreement or talks between the red and orange camps", I very much doubt there has been no cross-party discussion on this. All very low key and informal, no doubt, but there is pretty plainly a truce in place. In North Shropshire, the original Lib Dem idea was an independent, anti-sleaze crusader, and there were some discussions at that point I am sure.
Secondly, while I think it is the right strategy, the lost deposits do indicate a weakness of sorts. This isn't a new thing but is more true now than pre-2010... the Lib Dems just aren't the "natural" party of protest any more. At one time, the Lib Dems would have picked up some votes in OB&S even with an extremely low key campaign, just on the "plague on all their houses" basis, soaking up some of the stay at home Tories. Nowhere near enough to be in contention, but saved deposit.
Australia: Liberal/National vs. Labor
United Kingdom: Labour/LibDem vs. Conservatives ???
Looks more like a shit magnet the last few months!
Football thuggery and child torture.
Now I have a vision of a Char 2C carrying a horde of men in sandals, driving over a Covenanter....
So no "getting over the line" was necessary. That was done weeks ago. If not always the case.
Really genuine sorry because I am on Lib Dem’s weeks ago at 3-1 and I don’t want anyone else to have a good price after the flak I took!
😝
(for those who don't know what a 2c was:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLy8i0nv44U )
PS If you left the women out you'd be able to get them into a Schneider CA1 with room to spare
"The continued unfair targeting of Jewish members of the Party and in particular Jewish members with particular beliefs set out in further detail below, which appears to be entirely contrary to the findings of the EHRC Report and the purpose of the Action Plan"
"The unfair procedures the Party is continuing to follow in respect of disciplinary proceedings
against individual members, in breach of principles of fairness, natural justice and
recommendations made by both the EHRC, and by Baroness Shami Chakrabarti in her report
published on 30 June 2016, following her inquiry into antisemitism in the Party"
Will be interested what they conclude.
N Shropshire should be the same. This is a strong Leave seat where the LDs start in third and where the %age of grads is just about average. So none of the factors that would normally be helpful.
What gives the LDs an edge is having a powerful message in relation to the ex-MP. Whether an intense campaign will be enough I don't know. The message I've been seeing from campaign workers is that there is enough for them to believe they are in with a fighting chance. LD campaigns are able to reach many Tory voters in a way that Labour has never been able to do.
I hope they pull it off.
I think you post is the first time in a hundred years that anyone has accused a Schneider CA1 of having "room to spare"
EDIT - Better video of the Char 2C at - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dgLWKmLVJA
The LDs have a great track record in by-elections, far better than in General Elections. Frequently winning seats in by-elections, even seats they can't then go on to hold in the General Election.
This seat may not be an appropriate target seat for a General Election, but the LDs should be in by-elections as they generally are and if Labour were credible about seeking government at the next election surely they should have been able to put in the legwork for yesterday's one.
The result was consistent with the polls, both parties are more or less tied at present and I think soon Labour will pull ahead consistently.
I'll stick a few pounds on a Hung Parliament over the weekend.
As for Labour's performance last night, it was mediocre rather than awful. There aren't that many seats where the demographics etc. are less favourable to Labour - I mean, just the very name "Old Bexley and Sidcup" sounds Tory. So no surprise to me, and not hugely informative.
Not really sure how anyone can say this isn't good for Labour when it's their best performance here since 2001.
Very sorry kjh you are clearly running the libdem campaign and had melt down when you read my post.
It was honestly the Mason quote in previous thread where he is wrong to say Lib Dem’s demobilising he should have said demobilised as it made me think of current not past. 🤦♀️
My original post was total rubbish. But it still got a like!
I hear the Doctors are trolling him; "We're going to try to bring you out of your she.. sorry, bring your shell out of you"
If Labour were serious then they could surely have flooded the area with Labour activists drawn from all across London in a way they could never do in a General Election. Just as the Lib Dems are capable of doing in by-elections but not capable of replicating in General Elections.
Though having spoken to some Labour activists in the past, perhaps its fortuitous that they didn't.
4 years ago Lab were 8 pts ahead under yeah but Corbyn as opposed to 3 pts behind
Is all we are going to get for the next 3 years excuses involving yeah but Corbyn?
he was loaded.
Only 6,000 voted Labour even when they were the only way to beat the Tories compared to 14,000 in 2017 GE
How many of the 6,000 were these LD transfers you mention?
What particularly concerns me is the high floor to their vote. They have their regular true blue voters plus (not all but most) Leavers. Of course there’s a big overlap there but even so I think we’re talking 35% as base camp. It doesn’t leave much of a climb from there to FPTP majority territory, esp when the spread of their vote is efficient.
And I think that’s the key to the election – relative efficiency of the vote. Lab/LD and their voters need to work as a team. My election pricing atm is 60% Con majority vs 40% hung parliament, but if I knew that SKS and SED were going to put their heads together and thrash out a serious GTTO plan I would flip that around.
One of the evil monsters involved has her own children apparently. Is it appropriate that they be left in her custody? Even if it doesn't seem like they are in danger of receiving the same treatment, we should surely be concerned about them developing into sociopaths themselves.
It seems like for the sake of potential future victims, they should be removed to a more positive environment.
Father is jailed for 21 years and his partner for a minimum of 29 years over the torture and killing of six-year-old Arthur Labinjo-Hughes
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-59522243
Take for example, a header on the world's premier political betting site, by a guy called Mike Smithson, on December 1st, which was very keen to warn us that the Tories' chances in OBS were very much overstated.
Anyway, I digress, like you I believe the lib dems have an excellent chance in NS and my bank balance very much hopes they succeed.
In 1961, there was a by-election in the Oswestry seat (the predecessor for N Shropshire) with two candidates who would later become pretty well-known. One was John Biffen, defending for the Conservatives, and the other was Brian Walden for Labour.
Biffen became a cabinet minister under Mrs T (described as "semi-detached" by Bernard Ingham, before departing the cabinet). Biffen was actually an interesting character and very individualistic in his take on things. A follower of Enoch Powell in some respects.
Brian Walden, of course, achieved fame as presenter of Weekend World after a spell as a Labour MP. Considered quite sympathetic to Mrs T, but a pretty formidable interviewer.
The bare-bones of the by-election are on wiki, but I dimly remember reading an account of the by-election which was regarded as pretty high stakes at the time.
BTW - the Tories held, and Libs were second.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1961_Oswestry_by-election
Might be insulting to leavers to say they put leave ahead of sleaze and corruption, if they can say they want leave AND slick non sleazy government.
I was looking at vote share 2019 vs yesterday.
LP 23.5 up to 30.9
LD 8.3 down to 3.0
Tice 6.6%
His recent(ish) Falstaff was a real disappointment. Kids couldn't understand why I'd been excited to see the production.
On North Shropshire what could make a difference is if the LP candidate stood down.
Before his first public conflicts with the left, Starmer managed to hit peaks of around 39-40%, carrying both the left and centre-left with him. He hasn't hit these numbers as yet again since.