We may just luck out and this variant will be extremely infectious, but relatively mild, and the whole fucking kerfuffle finally fizzles out, as new SuperMild NuNu outcompetes its nastier but less viral peers
I for one shall say a prayer to Gaia
An Rt of 1.94 is tiny (actually lower than original COVID), Delta has an Rt of 6.5, for example. Is there any further information?
I'm trying to work out what he means by "effective reproduction number" - presumably it is not pure R, but some kind of R in the real world, where there is some immunity and mitigation?
I'm sure I could pass a GCSE in epidemiology now. But not an A Level
R of 1.94 in a fully vaccinated population would imply a high level of immunity escape, in a poorly vaccinated population it would be around the same Rt as Delta, maybe a bit higher at Rt 8-9 which is not a disaster, at least not for a country like the UK where there are 51m people with some level of vaccination and a further 8-10m with natural immunity.
Guy on Twitter reckons this data implies that Nu's R0 is close to measles: R16
You need 95% immunity to suppress measles, we won't get that until we've all got the Nunu, it will infect everyone vulnerable very fast
Still not a disaster if it is not severe, indeed possibly the end of the pandemic, as you have said
Pleased to see you’ve calmed down since last night, Leon. Did the gin work?
Scientists in South Africa have discovered a small number of cases of a new COVID variant. They’re working to understand its potential implications but told a news conference that it had a ‘very unusual constellation’ of mutations.
They’re concerned that they could help it evade the body’s immune response and make the variant - named B.1.1.529 - more transmissible.
These scientists are part of a global network of government scientists and academics searching for new strains of COVID-19, like this and other previous variants - like Delta.
It was updated in the last 24 hours and they forgot to change the date. No conspiracy
Meanwhile some candidates for French President such as Michel Barnier now saying Le Touquet agreement (whereby France polices UK external border in Calais) should be scrapped, and refugees allowed to go to the UK to apply there…
UK should ask all asylum seekers to attend their French embassies to be processed which would be interesting
And if they say no? This is the problem with simple answers to complex problems. There aren't any.
This is all going to end with about half-a-million migrants crossing the Channel in dinghies every year and none of them ever being deported. The dreams of the open borders lunatics being made flesh (except for the part where the occasional dinghy occupant drowns, at least until the inevitable court case forces the Government to buy them all tickets to come over on the Eurostar.)
That'll all go down well in Hartlepool, I'm sure.
Good job we took back control. Or maybe a slogan isn't sufficient?
All of europe is going to get tough on migrants....if the climate change people are right there are over the next 3 or so decades 2 billion or so deplaced due to climate change....most of which will be heading towards europe from africa and the middle east. There was 28 countries in europe before we left....2 billion/28 is going to be about 71 million per country.....cant see any european country willing to take in anywhere like that number so the borders will be militarised and the migrants repulsed.
If the worst climate change predictions are right, then part of low lying Europe eg the Netherlands, will disappear. Africa also will still have far more land than Europe even if it does get even hotter than it is now.
Though yes uncontrolled immigration and boat crossings would lead to the populist right getting elected on the Continent sooner or later to enforce tighter borders.
Although it might lead to a religious revival in western Europe, as Africans do tend to be more religious than western Europeans. The more western Europe has low birthrates and African migrants come to western Europe, the more we will shift away from secularism
Much of Essex will go as well. You should make more of an effort to look for the upside.
Most of Epping though is up a hill and protected by a forest.
Much of London, especially the part nearest the Thames and the old docklands, would go before Epping does
Any Brexity uplands will be seized by younger, fitter and frankly sexier Remainers, I’m afraid.
You’re shit out of luck.
I went out shopping today and everything is normal out there. Reading this thread you would think it’s Zombie Apocalypse! 🧟♂️
Check in the shop windows, the reflections show the lizard men in the people costumes in their true form.
Is that the same as why Vampires are rubbish at applying their make up 🙂
Pretty much.
The Lizard Men are always complaining to the Illuminati via the TriLateral Commission about it - they say that they can't get the foundation on evenly.
I am back in the warm after getting a bit cold out shopping and now carefully looking through tomorrow’s Race cards. If it’s too windy for Rugby as it’s cancelled already to protect spectators, maybe the Fighting Fifth has battle on its hands just to run if racecourse needs to protect spectators too? Though Falcons will try to fly in it tomorrow so must have got told tomorrow afternoon less wild?
Can I wrap myself in Glory this week tipping a winner?
Newcastle already deemed good to soft before Arwen arrives. I don’t tend to bet large if winner isn’t obvious. Fighting Fifth looks like a big battle of horses all with an excellent claim to the win, as it should be as a high class race, and I’ll listen to you as you dissect each claim to the one you will back, but I admit a bias for front runners, and I admit Not So Sleepy has no success at all over a race distance that looks a long way too far, but has had its best days over soft or heavy ground. As the favourites stand there getting nithered and soaked in the storm, Not So Sleepy might be feeling in its element? Maybe?
Newcastle 15:15 Not So Sleepy (needs rain, sleet, wind, cold to distract the favourites, a bit of fog so they can’t see how far ahead he is might help as well)
Which is interesting - because Delta went through households like a dose of salts....
It's almost like there's a bunch of panic, and no actual evidence that the new variant is meaningfully worse
I've noted something of an overlap between those panicking and those with a prior Covid record of muscular 'we just gotta get on with things and live with it' sentiment.
My general self-imposed rule is to neither whoop with delight nor plunge into gloom until a week's data is consistent. What we can say on that basisis that things are tight in hospitals but have eased slightly, cases are still high but plateaued, death rate is low. We can't say anything sensible, positive or otherwise, about the South African variant yet.
That's right. For Delta we are as we were and on Omi we await data on how bad it is and whether it beats our vaccines. Hopefully it won't be a worst case outcome. I guess one good thing about getting really really worried before knowing the facts is that if the facts come in relatively benign you get a nice blast of relief and the current not brilliant situation looks a bit rosier.
No, NPXMP is being too blase about OMICRON, THE KING OF VIRUSES
We do know more now, and we know enough to be worried (but not hysterical, heaven forbid). Omicron is almost certainly a negative development. We just don't know how negative, yet
Not sure about its being a negative development. Might it just be possible that its potency in driving out and taking over from other variants while itself being less harmful on average is a positive for the humankind? It might thus spread and confer immunity against its more damaging confreres without pharmacological intervention?
Meanwhile some candidates for French President such as Michel Barnier now saying Le Touquet agreement (whereby France polices UK external border in Calais) should be scrapped, and refugees allowed to go to the UK to apply there…
UK should ask all asylum seekers to attend their French embassies to be processed which would be interesting
And if they say no? This is the problem with simple answers to complex problems. There aren't any.
This is all going to end with about half-a-million migrants crossing the Channel in dinghies every year and none of them ever being deported. The dreams of the open borders lunatics being made flesh (except for the part where the occasional dinghy occupant drowns, at least until the inevitable court case forces the Government to buy them all tickets to come over on the Eurostar.)
That'll all go down well in Hartlepool, I'm sure.
Good job we took back control. Or maybe a slogan isn't sufficient?
All of europe is going to get tough on migrants....if the climate change people are right there are over the next 3 or so decades 2 billion or so deplaced due to climate change....most of which will be heading towards europe from africa and the middle east. There was 28 countries in europe before we left....2 billion/28 is going to be about 71 million per country.....cant see any european country willing to take in anywhere like that number so the borders will be militarised and the migrants repulsed.
If the worst climate change predictions are right, then part of low lying Europe eg the Netherlands, will disappear. Africa also will still have far more land than Europe even if it does get even hotter than it is now.
Though yes uncontrolled immigration and boat crossings would lead to the populist right getting elected on the Continent sooner or later to enforce tighter borders.
Although it might lead to a religious revival in western Europe, as Africans do tend to be more religious than western Europeans. The more western Europe has low birthrates and African migrants come to western Europe, the more we will shift away from secularism
Much of Essex will go as well. You should make more of an effort to look for the upside.
Most of Epping though is up a hill and protected by a forest.
Much of London, especially the part nearest the Thames and the old docklands, would go before Epping does
Any Brexity uplands will be seized by younger, fitter and frankly sexier Remainers, I’m afraid.
You’re shit out of luck.
One darkly funny thing is to poke self described progressives and find how near the surface their inner fascist is.
The response to the "invasion" of the Polish border by "weaponised refugees" has been interesting, to say the least.
Have you been poking the woke again and they were no match for your untamed wit?
Just been trawling threads on Reddit etc. Was playing with some analysis tools - AI'ing the responses. Essentially, a lot of people who reacted in horror to the behaviour of the Greek government etc over boats arriving etc. are declaring that Defending Europe Is Vital when the matter of the Polish border comes up.
The number of genuinely liberal people out there is actually quite small, I think.
I guess count me in as genuinely liberal! Threats of sending a bunch of migrants EUwards will only be an effective tactic if the EU demonstrate that it can harm them. They do this by wetting the bed or letting people die in the cold. Or both. The EU has ~500 million people, it can't accommodate a few million more if need be?
That’s all well and good, and I have myself posted the hopeful hospital data from SA… But why are so many politicians and scientists alike reacting - worldwide - to THE GREAT OMICRON with such urgent fearfulness? And using words like ‘huge concern’? Why is Israel entering a ‘state of emergency’ and enacting its Omega war plan for a terrible variant?
Prof John Edmunds, a member of the UK's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) which advises the government, says the new variant, B.1.1.529, is a "huge worry" and could escape current Covid vaccines.
"The molecular data is extremely worrying...[it] would point to that perhapsthis thing might be able to evade the immune response," he tells BBC Radio 4's PM programme.
Meanwhile, the Netherlands continues its progressive collapse into lockdown. Bars, restaurants and most shops have to close at 5pm from Sunday, which will effectively wreck their hospitality trade all over again.
I've just read this in the summary feed on the Beeb so I don't know what support is being offered, but presumably a lot of these businesses are going to need Government handouts again or they'll collapse, especially since I think we can assume that this is likely to end up in a full lockdown until at least March.
We know from last Winter's experience how long it takes to get out of the lockdown trap once it's been sprung.
The lights are going out all over europe. Who knows when they will be lit again.
A little more on the Dutch collapse:
The Netherlands will be “effectively closed from 5pm to 5am” according to remarks by caretaker prime minister Mark Rutte, announcing new Covid restrictions from Sunday.
Speaking at a press conference announcing the partial lockdown, he said: “We have to be realistic, the daily figures are still too high.” Rutte added that the government had failed to get across the message that people with symptoms needed to get tested, and took the blame himself, according to AFP.
Bars, restaurants and shops will be closed early to curb a spike in cases. Schools will stay open, despite the largest rise being among children.
I confidently predict that these measures will prove useless. Scapegoating hospitality is a universal response, because it is an easy and obvious target and can be readily shut down by diktat, but AIUI the large bulk of transmission has already been estimated to take place in health and care settings, educational establishments, supermarkets, and in gatherings in private homes.
If, as seems to be the case, the Dutch population has insufficient immunity to prevent Delta from sinking the hospitals under Winter conditions, then it's hard lockdown until the Spring. Again. They'll be locking up schoolkids and telling everyone to socialise via Zoom within a week or two - though whether the population will choose to defy social isolation edicts, especially with Christmas round the corner, has to be questionable at the very least.
That’s all well and good, and I have myself posted the hopeful hospital data from SA… But why are so many politicians and scientists alike reacting - worldwide - to THE GREAT OMICRON with such urgent fearfulness? And using words like ‘huge concern’? Why is Israel entering a ‘state of emergency’ and enacting its Omega war plan for a terrible variant?
This is new. This feels different.
Just maybe they have finally learned the lesson? Act before you think you need, just in case? I’m not remotely worried about this variant. Not enough evidence yet to provoke worry.
Most impressive French spokeswoman on BBC News. It really is time this country rid itself of this quite dreadful Prime Minister and Home Secretary. They are well beyond embarrassing.
Macron and Boris are equally dreadful and both are embarrassing
Thank goodness you could only vote for one of them otherwise the embarrassment would be excruciating.
Just accidentally caught Neil Oliver on GBNews. Rocking the double denim.
Which is interesting - because Delta went through households like a dose of salts....
It's almost like there's a bunch of panic, and no actual evidence that the new variant is meaningfully worse
I've noted something of an overlap between those panicking and those with a prior Covid record of muscular 'we just gotta get on with things and live with it' sentiment.
My general self-imposed rule is to neither whoop with delight nor plunge into gloom until a week's data is consistent. What we can say on that basisis that things are tight in hospitals but have eased slightly, cases are still high but plateaued, death rate is low. We can't say anything sensible, positive or otherwise, about the South African variant yet.
That's right. For Delta we are as we were and on Omi we await data on how bad it is and whether it beats our vaccines. Hopefully it won't be a worst case outcome. I guess one good thing about getting really really worried before knowing the facts is that if the facts come in relatively benign you get a nice blast of relief and the current not brilliant situation looks a bit rosier.
No, NPXMP is being too blase about OMICRON, THE KING OF VIRUSES
We do know more now, and we know enough to be worried (but not hysterical, heaven forbid). Omicron is almost certainly a negative development. We just don't know how negative, yet
Not sure about its being a negative development. Might it just be possible that its potency in driving out and taking over from other variants while itself being less harmful on average is a positive for the humankind? It might thus spread and confer immunity against its more damaging confreres without pharmacological intervention?
IANAE, just an optimistic old fool.
Having now read the thread, perhaps the last statement there is the actualité.
Meanwhile, the Netherlands continues its progressive collapse into lockdown. Bars, restaurants and most shops have to close at 5pm from Sunday, which will effectively wreck their hospitality trade all over again.
I've just read this in the summary feed on the Beeb so I don't know what support is being offered, but presumably a lot of these businesses are going to need Government handouts again or they'll collapse, especially since I think we can assume that this is likely to end up in a full lockdown until at least March.
We know from last Winter's experience how long it takes to get out of the lockdown trap once it's been sprung.
The lights are going out all over europe. Who knows when they will be lit again.
A little more on the Dutch collapse:
The Netherlands will be “effectively closed from 5pm to 5am” according to remarks by caretaker prime minister Mark Rutte, announcing new Covid restrictions from Sunday.
Speaking at a press conference announcing the partial lockdown, he said: “We have to be realistic, the daily figures are still too high.” Rutte added that the government had failed to get across the message that people with symptoms needed to get tested, and took the blame himself, according to AFP.
Bars, restaurants and shops will be closed early to curb a spike in cases. Schools will stay open, despite the largest rise being among children.
I confidently predict that these measures will prove useless. Scapegoating hospitality is a universal response, because it is an easy and obvious target and can be readily shut down by diktat, but AIUI the large bulk of transmission has already been estimated to take place in health and care settings, educational establishments, supermarkets, and in gatherings in private homes.
If, as seems to be the case, the Dutch population has insufficient immunity to prevent Delta from sinking the hospitals under Winter conditions, then it's hard lockdown until the Spring. Again. They'll be locking up schoolkids and telling everyone to socialise via Zoom within a week or two - though whether the population will choose to defy social isolation edicts, especially with Christmas round the corner, has to be questionable at the very least.
I was having this debate with Rob Smithson. When the Dutch first relocked-down, he was optimistic they would reopen soon. A short circuit breaker. I said no. Because once you start lockdowns all the psychological pressure is to keep them, even tighten them. It takes an incredibly bold politician to risk reopening (esp around Xmas!) - and I fear it will be the same here. The Dutch will now be confined for many weeks.
Most impressive French spokeswoman on BBC News. It really is time this country rid itself of this quite dreadful Prime Minister and Home Secretary. They are well beyond embarrassing.
Macron and Boris are equally dreadful and both are embarrassing
Thank goodness you could only vote for one of them otherwise the embarrassment would be excruciating.
Just accidentally caught Neil Oliver on GBNews. Rocking the double denim.
I see GB News are still haemorrhaging presenters. Kristy Gallagher gone today. Will just be the absolute loony tunes like Oliver left soon.
Most impressive French spokeswoman on BBC News. It really is time this country rid itself of this quite dreadful Prime Minister and Home Secretary. They are well beyond embarrassing.
Macron and Boris are equally dreadful and both are embarrassing
(Boasting) Our PM is more embarrassing than your President!
They are equals
No, they are quite different.
Macron is quasi-ineffective, after all.
I’m surprised the Sun didn’t go with the picture of the gendarmes sitting watching the migrants getting into a dinghy with a headline of “quasi-ineffective”…..
I am back in the warm after getting a bit cold out shopping and now carefully looking through tomorrow’s Race cards. If it’s too windy for Rugby as it’s cancelled already to protect spectators, maybe the Fighting Fifth has battle on its hands just to run if racecourse needs to protect spectators too? Though Falcons will try to fly in it tomorrow so must have got told tomorrow afternoon less wild?
Can I wrap myself in Glory this week tipping a winner?
Newcastle already deemed good to soft before Arwen arrives. I don’t tend to bet large if winner isn’t obvious. Fighting Fifth looks like a big battle of horses all with an excellent claim to the win, as it should be as a high class race, and I’ll listen to you as you dissect each claim to the one you will back, but I admit a bias for front runners, and I admit Not So Sleepy has no success at all over a race distance that looks a long way too far, but has had its best days over soft or heavy ground. As the favourites stand there getting nithered and soaked in the storm, Not So Sleepy might be feeling in its element? Maybe?
Newcastle 15:15 Not So Sleepy (needs rain, sleet, wind, cold to distract the favourites, a bit of fog so they can’t see how far ahead he is might help as well)
Most impressive French spokeswoman on BBC News. It really is time this country rid itself of this quite dreadful Prime Minister and Home Secretary. They are well beyond embarrassing.
Macron and Boris are equally dreadful and both are embarrassing
(Boasting) Our PM is more embarrassing than your President!
They are equals
No, they are quite different.
Macron is quasi-ineffective, after all.
I’m surprised the Sun didn’t go with the picture of the gendarmes sitting watching the migrants getting into a dinghy with a headline of “quasi-ineffective”…..
Meanwhile some candidates for French President such as Michel Barnier now saying Le Touquet agreement (whereby France polices UK external border in Calais) should be scrapped, and refugees allowed to go to the UK to apply there…
UK should ask all asylum seekers to attend their French embassies to be processed which would be interesting
And if they say no? This is the problem with simple answers to complex problems. There aren't any.
This is all going to end with about half-a-million migrants crossing the Channel in dinghies every year and none of them ever being deported. The dreams of the open borders lunatics being made flesh (except for the part where the occasional dinghy occupant drowns, at least until the inevitable court case forces the Government to buy them all tickets to come over on the Eurostar.)
That'll all go down well in Hartlepool, I'm sure.
Good job we took back control. Or maybe a slogan isn't sufficient?
All of europe is going to get tough on migrants....if the climate change people are right there are over the next 3 or so decades 2 billion or so deplaced due to climate change....most of which will be heading towards europe from africa and the middle east. There was 28 countries in europe before we left....2 billion/28 is going to be about 71 million per country.....cant see any european country willing to take in anywhere like that number so the borders will be militarised and the migrants repulsed.
If the worst climate change predictions are right, then part of low lying Europe eg the Netherlands, will disappear. Africa also will still have far more land than Europe even if it does get even hotter than it is now.
Though yes uncontrolled immigration and boat crossings would lead to the populist right getting elected on the Continent sooner or later to enforce tighter borders.
Although it might lead to a religious revival in western Europe, as Africans do tend to be more religious than western Europeans. The more western Europe has low birthrates and African migrants come to western Europe, the more we will shift away from secularism
Much of Essex will go as well. You should make more of an effort to look for the upside.
Most of Epping though is up a hill and protected by a forest.
Much of London, especially the part nearest the Thames and the old docklands, would go before Epping does
Any Brexity uplands will be seized by younger, fitter and frankly sexier Remainers, I’m afraid.
You’re shit out of luck.
One darkly funny thing is to poke self described progressives and find how near the surface their inner fascist is.
The response to the "invasion" of the Polish border by "weaponised refugees" has been interesting, to say the least.
Have you been poking the woke again and they were no match for your untamed wit?
Just been trawling threads on Reddit etc. Was playing with some analysis tools - AI'ing the responses. Essentially, a lot of people who reacted in horror to the behaviour of the Greek government etc over boats arriving etc. are declaring that Defending Europe Is Vital when the matter of the Polish border comes up.
The number of genuinely liberal people out there is actually quite small, I think.
I guess count me in as genuinely liberal! Threats of sending a bunch of migrants EUwards will only be an effective tactic if the EU demonstrate that it can harm them. They do this by wetting the bed or letting people die in the cold. Or both. The EU has ~500 million people, it can't accommodate a few million more if need be?
In theory yes. In practice no-one wants them. Why would they?
So, how are you going to go about selling your position to European electorates? There's room, but so what? Simply to reach the same population density as the UK, Poland, for example, would need to accept approximately fifty million migrants. It doesn't follow that this is a good idea.
That’s all well and good, and I have myself posted the hopeful hospital data from SA… But why are so many politicians and scientists alike reacting - worldwide - to THE GREAT OMICRON with such urgent fearfulness? And using words like ‘huge concern’? Why is Israel entering a ‘state of emergency’ and enacting its Omega war plan for a terrible variant?
This is new. This feels different.
Just maybe they have finally learned the lesson? Act before you think you need, just in case? I’m not remotely worried about this variant. Not enough evidence yet to provoke worry.
I’m sorry but that’s just foolish. I understand people who refuse to worry because ‘it doesn’t change anything’ - that’s a pretty sensible attitude in some ways. But refusing to worry about Omicron ‘because there’s not enough evidence’ is simply blinkered.
Meanwhile, the Netherlands continues its progressive collapse into lockdown. Bars, restaurants and most shops have to close at 5pm from Sunday, which will effectively wreck their hospitality trade all over again.
I've just read this in the summary feed on the Beeb so I don't know what support is being offered, but presumably a lot of these businesses are going to need Government handouts again or they'll collapse, especially since I think we can assume that this is likely to end up in a full lockdown until at least March.
We know from last Winter's experience how long it takes to get out of the lockdown trap once it's been sprung.
The lights are going out all over europe. Who knows when they will be lit again.
A little more on the Dutch collapse:
The Netherlands will be “effectively closed from 5pm to 5am” according to remarks by caretaker prime minister Mark Rutte, announcing new Covid restrictions from Sunday.
Speaking at a press conference announcing the partial lockdown, he said: “We have to be realistic, the daily figures are still too high.” Rutte added that the government had failed to get across the message that people with symptoms needed to get tested, and took the blame himself, according to AFP.
Bars, restaurants and shops will be closed early to curb a spike in cases. Schools will stay open, despite the largest rise being among children.
I confidently predict that these measures will prove useless. Scapegoating hospitality is a universal response, because it is an easy and obvious target and can be readily shut down by diktat, but AIUI the large bulk of transmission has already been estimated to take place in health and care settings, educational establishments, supermarkets, and in gatherings in private homes.
If, as seems to be the case, the Dutch population has insufficient immunity to prevent Delta from sinking the hospitals under Winter conditions, then it's hard lockdown until the Spring. Again. They'll be locking up schoolkids and telling everyone to socialise via Zoom within a week or two - though whether the population will choose to defy social isolation edicts, especially with Christmas round the corner, has to be questionable at the very least.
I was having this debate with Rob Smithson. When the Dutch first relocked-down, he was optimistic they would reopen soon. A short circuit breaker. I said no. Because once you start lockdowns all the psychological pressure is to keep them, even tighten them. It takes an incredibly bold politician to risk reopening (esp around Xmas!) - and I fear it will be the same here. The Dutch will now be confined for many weeks.
Short circuit breakers don't work - it takes weeks for a lockdown to cut into the rising numbers and have a serious effect.
So after a couple of weeks, you see some signs of things beginning to turn around (mostly increase slowing). So you continue with the lockdown.
This has been shown, time and again, in this epidemic.
Meanwhile, the Netherlands continues its progressive collapse into lockdown. Bars, restaurants and most shops have to close at 5pm from Sunday, which will effectively wreck their hospitality trade all over again.
I've just read this in the summary feed on the Beeb so I don't know what support is being offered, but presumably a lot of these businesses are going to need Government handouts again or they'll collapse, especially since I think we can assume that this is likely to end up in a full lockdown until at least March.
We know from last Winter's experience how long it takes to get out of the lockdown trap once it's been sprung.
The lights are going out all over europe. Who knows when they will be lit again.
A little more on the Dutch collapse:
The Netherlands will be “effectively closed from 5pm to 5am” according to remarks by caretaker prime minister Mark Rutte, announcing new Covid restrictions from Sunday.
Speaking at a press conference announcing the partial lockdown, he said: “We have to be realistic, the daily figures are still too high.” Rutte added that the government had failed to get across the message that people with symptoms needed to get tested, and took the blame himself, according to AFP.
Bars, restaurants and shops will be closed early to curb a spike in cases. Schools will stay open, despite the largest rise being among children.
I confidently predict that these measures will prove useless. Scapegoating hospitality is a universal response, because it is an easy and obvious target and can be readily shut down by diktat, but AIUI the large bulk of transmission has already been estimated to take place in health and care settings, educational establishments, supermarkets, and in gatherings in private homes.
If, as seems to be the case, the Dutch population has insufficient immunity to prevent Delta from sinking the hospitals under Winter conditions, then it's hard lockdown until the Spring. Again. They'll be locking up schoolkids and telling everyone to socialise via Zoom within a week or two - though whether the population will choose to defy social isolation edicts, especially with Christmas round the corner, has to be questionable at the very least.
I would imagine that its not worth bars and restaurants opening if they have to shut at 5pm.
And do supermarkets have to close at 5pm - if so how do people who work 9-5 type hours meant to do their shopping ?
Supermarkets should have maximum possible opening hours to reduce the congestion at any time and also give the vulnerable an opportunity to shop in the quiet hours.
Wasn’t Macron right that AZ turned out to only be quasi effective?
Even the UK’s given up on it now.
Er no. Why do you say that? There’s good evidence that it might provoke better lasting t-cell responses than the mRNA vaccines so far. It may well be part of the best regime AZ/AZ/mRNA.
Meanwhile, the Netherlands continues its progressive collapse into lockdown. Bars, restaurants and most shops have to close at 5pm from Sunday, which will effectively wreck their hospitality trade all over again.
I've just read this in the summary feed on the Beeb so I don't know what support is being offered, but presumably a lot of these businesses are going to need Government handouts again or they'll collapse, especially since I think we can assume that this is likely to end up in a full lockdown until at least March.
We know from last Winter's experience how long it takes to get out of the lockdown trap once it's been sprung.
The lights are going out all over europe. Who knows when they will be lit again.
A little more on the Dutch collapse:
The Netherlands will be “effectively closed from 5pm to 5am” according to remarks by caretaker prime minister Mark Rutte, announcing new Covid restrictions from Sunday.
Speaking at a press conference announcing the partial lockdown, he said: “We have to be realistic, the daily figures are still too high.” Rutte added that the government had failed to get across the message that people with symptoms needed to get tested, and took the blame himself, according to AFP.
Bars, restaurants and shops will be closed early to curb a spike in cases. Schools will stay open, despite the largest rise being among children.
I confidently predict that these measures will prove useless. Scapegoating hospitality is a universal response, because it is an easy and obvious target and can be readily shut down by diktat, but AIUI the large bulk of transmission has already been estimated to take place in health and care settings, educational establishments, supermarkets, and in gatherings in private homes.
If, as seems to be the case, the Dutch population has insufficient immunity to prevent Delta from sinking the hospitals under Winter conditions, then it's hard lockdown until the Spring. Again. They'll be locking up schoolkids and telling everyone to socialise via Zoom within a week or two - though whether the population will choose to defy social isolation edicts, especially with Christmas round the corner, has to be questionable at the very least.
I was having this debate with Rob Smithson. When the Dutch first relocked-down, he was optimistic they would reopen soon. A short circuit breaker. I said no. Because once you start lockdowns all the psychological pressure is to keep them, even tighten them. It takes an incredibly bold politician to risk reopening (esp around Xmas!) - and I fear it will be the same here. The Dutch will now be confined for many weeks.
Short circuit breakers don't work - it takes weeks for a lockdown to cut into the rising numbers and have a serious effect.
So after a couple of weeks, you see some signs of things beginning to turn around (mostly increase slowing). So you continue with the lockdown.
This has been shown, time and again, in this epidemic.
Incoming Starmer saying we should, but maybe, but maybe not.....
Meanwhile some candidates for French President such as Michel Barnier now saying Le Touquet agreement (whereby France polices UK external border in Calais) should be scrapped, and refugees allowed to go to the UK to apply there…
UK should ask all asylum seekers to attend their French embassies to be processed which would be interesting
And if they say no? This is the problem with simple answers to complex problems. There aren't any.
This is all going to end with about half-a-million migrants crossing the Channel in dinghies every year and none of them ever being deported. The dreams of the open borders lunatics being made flesh (except for the part where the occasional dinghy occupant drowns, at least until the inevitable court case forces the Government to buy them all tickets to come over on the Eurostar.)
That'll all go down well in Hartlepool, I'm sure.
Good job we took back control. Or maybe a slogan isn't sufficient?
All of europe is going to get tough on migrants....if the climate change people are right there are over the next 3 or so decades 2 billion or so deplaced due to climate change....most of which will be heading towards europe from africa and the middle east. There was 28 countries in europe before we left....2 billion/28 is going to be about 71 million per country.....cant see any european country willing to take in anywhere like that number so the borders will be militarised and the migrants repulsed.
If the worst climate change predictions are right, then part of low lying Europe eg the Netherlands, will disappear. Africa also will still have far more land than Europe even if it does get even hotter than it is now.
Though yes uncontrolled immigration and boat crossings would lead to the populist right getting elected on the Continent sooner or later to enforce tighter borders.
Although it might lead to a religious revival in western Europe, as Africans do tend to be more religious than western Europeans. The more western Europe has low birthrates and African migrants come to western Europe, the more we will shift away from secularism
Much of Essex will go as well. You should make more of an effort to look for the upside.
Most of Epping though is up a hill and protected by a forest.
Much of London, especially the part nearest the Thames and the old docklands, would go before Epping does
Any Brexity uplands will be seized by younger, fitter and frankly sexier Remainers, I’m afraid.
You’re shit out of luck.
There will be very few of those left given the surge in the populist right to control the boat crossings
Are you sure the upcoming generation will go right? That’s not what my grandchildren tell me.
They regard me as just about Left of centre. Which is slightly upsetting TBH!
Under 25s have voted Labour at every general election since 1987, they always get more conservative as they get older
While I take your point, the majority of my voting grandchildren are over 25, and show no sign of changing their opinions.
Exlcuding the fact you are obviously a leftwing family, how many are homeowners? Generally most people start voting Conservative once they get a mortgage and start the process of home ownership.
Certainly the Tories have won home owners with a mortgage at every general election excluding those Blair won.
Are they graduates? If so they will also be less likely to vote for the populist right than the working class and non graduate lower middle class, even amongst the young
I can remember seeing some voting stats when Ted Heath was Tory leader. Looked like game-over for the Tories when the oldies died off.
That’s all well and good, and I have myself posted the hopeful hospital data from SA… But why are so many politicians and scientists alike reacting - worldwide - to THE GREAT OMICRON with such urgent fearfulness? And using words like ‘huge concern’? Why is Israel entering a ‘state of emergency’ and enacting its Omega war plan for a terrible variant?
This is new. This feels different.
Once one country does pretty much so every country has to do so.
Or each government will be accused at putting its people at risk when other countries are taking precautions.
That’s all well and good, and I have myself posted the hopeful hospital data from SA… But why are so many politicians and scientists alike reacting - worldwide - to THE GREAT OMICRON with such urgent fearfulness? And using words like ‘huge concern’? Why is Israel entering a ‘state of emergency’ and enacting its Omega war plan for a terrible variant?
This is new. This feels different.
Once one country does pretty much so every country has to do so.
Or each government will be accused at putting its people at risk when other countries are taking precautions.
I notice quietly even South Korea is now suffering from exponential growth in cases and deaths.
That’s all well and good, and I have myself posted the hopeful hospital data from SA… But why are so many politicians and scientists alike reacting - worldwide - to THE GREAT OMICRON with such urgent fearfulness? And using words like ‘huge concern’? Why is Israel entering a ‘state of emergency’ and enacting its Omega war plan for a terrible variant?
This is new. This feels different.
Just maybe they have finally learned the lesson? Act before you think you need, just in case? I’m not remotely worried about this variant. Not enough evidence yet to provoke worry.
I’m sorry but that’s just foolish. I understand people who refuse to worry because ‘it doesn’t change anything’ - that’s a pretty sensible attitude in some ways. But refusing to worry about Omicron ‘because there’s not enough evidence’ is simply blinkered.
What would my worry achieve? Nothing. I know you’ve kept up with the progress of the pandemic, so I know you have seen other variants come and go. This may be similar. It may not be. We don’t know right now. Well have a better idea in a few weeks. The early evidence, posted by your good self, suggests vaccination is holding pretty well against omicron. That’s excellent news. I know you love the drama, but right now there is no need for me to worry.
Meanwhile, the Netherlands continues its progressive collapse into lockdown. Bars, restaurants and most shops have to close at 5pm from Sunday, which will effectively wreck their hospitality trade all over again.
I've just read this in the summary feed on the Beeb so I don't know what support is being offered, but presumably a lot of these businesses are going to need Government handouts again or they'll collapse, especially since I think we can assume that this is likely to end up in a full lockdown until at least March.
We know from last Winter's experience how long it takes to get out of the lockdown trap once it's been sprung.
The lights are going out all over europe. Who knows when they will be lit again.
A little more on the Dutch collapse:
The Netherlands will be “effectively closed from 5pm to 5am” according to remarks by caretaker prime minister Mark Rutte, announcing new Covid restrictions from Sunday.
Speaking at a press conference announcing the partial lockdown, he said: “We have to be realistic, the daily figures are still too high.” Rutte added that the government had failed to get across the message that people with symptoms needed to get tested, and took the blame himself, according to AFP.
Bars, restaurants and shops will be closed early to curb a spike in cases. Schools will stay open, despite the largest rise being among children.
I confidently predict that these measures will prove useless. Scapegoating hospitality is a universal response, because it is an easy and obvious target and can be readily shut down by diktat, but AIUI the large bulk of transmission has already been estimated to take place in health and care settings, educational establishments, supermarkets, and in gatherings in private homes.
If, as seems to be the case, the Dutch population has insufficient immunity to prevent Delta from sinking the hospitals under Winter conditions, then it's hard lockdown until the Spring. Again. They'll be locking up schoolkids and telling everyone to socialise via Zoom within a week or two - though whether the population will choose to defy social isolation edicts, especially with Christmas round the corner, has to be questionable at the very least.
I was having this debate with Rob Smithson. When the Dutch first relocked-down, he was optimistic they would reopen soon. A short circuit breaker. I said no. Because once you start lockdowns all the psychological pressure is to keep them, even tighten them. It takes an incredibly bold politician to risk reopening (esp around Xmas!) - and I fear it will be the same here. The Dutch will now be confined for many weeks.
Short circuit breakers don't work - it takes weeks for a lockdown to cut into the rising numbers and have a serious effect.
So after a couple of weeks, you see some signs of things beginning to turn around (mostly increase slowing). So you continue with the lockdown.
This has been shown, time and again, in this epidemic.
Incoming Starmer saying we should, but maybe, but maybe not.....
I notice that Jon Ashworth has now followed Starmer in being infected with covid.
Doesn't seem that masks were as useful as they claimed.
Meanwhile some candidates for French President such as Michel Barnier now saying Le Touquet agreement (whereby France polices UK external border in Calais) should be scrapped, and refugees allowed to go to the UK to apply there…
UK should ask all asylum seekers to attend their French embassies to be processed which would be interesting
And if they say no? This is the problem with simple answers to complex problems. There aren't any.
This is all going to end with about half-a-million migrants crossing the Channel in dinghies every year and none of them ever being deported. The dreams of the open borders lunatics being made flesh (except for the part where the occasional dinghy occupant drowns, at least until the inevitable court case forces the Government to buy them all tickets to come over on the Eurostar.)
That'll all go down well in Hartlepool, I'm sure.
Good job we took back control. Or maybe a slogan isn't sufficient?
All of europe is going to get tough on migrants....if the climate change people are right there are over the next 3 or so decades 2 billion or so deplaced due to climate change....most of which will be heading towards europe from africa and the middle east. There was 28 countries in europe before we left....2 billion/28 is going to be about 71 million per country.....cant see any european country willing to take in anywhere like that number so the borders will be militarised and the migrants repulsed.
If the worst climate change predictions are right, then part of low lying Europe eg the Netherlands, will disappear. Africa also will still have far more land than Europe even if it does get even hotter than it is now.
Though yes uncontrolled immigration and boat crossings would lead to the populist right getting elected on the Continent sooner or later to enforce tighter borders.
Although it might lead to a religious revival in western Europe, as Africans do tend to be more religious than western Europeans. The more western Europe has low birthrates and African migrants come to western Europe, the more we will shift away from secularism
Much of Essex will go as well. You should make more of an effort to look for the upside.
Most of Epping though is up a hill and protected by a forest.
Much of London, especially the part nearest the Thames and the old docklands, would go before Epping does
Any Brexity uplands will be seized by younger, fitter and frankly sexier Remainers, I’m afraid.
You’re shit out of luck.
One darkly funny thing is to poke self described progressives and find how near the surface their inner fascist is.
The response to the "invasion" of the Polish border by "weaponised refugees" has been interesting, to say the least.
Have you been poking the woke again and they were no match for your untamed wit?
Just been trawling threads on Reddit etc. Was playing with some analysis tools - AI'ing the responses. Essentially, a lot of people who reacted in horror to the behaviour of the Greek government etc over boats arriving etc. are declaring that Defending Europe Is Vital when the matter of the Polish border comes up.
The number of genuinely liberal people out there is actually quite small, I think.
I guess count me in as genuinely liberal! Threats of sending a bunch of migrants EUwards will only be an effective tactic if the EU demonstrate that it can harm them. They do this by wetting the bed or letting people die in the cold. Or both. The EU has ~500 million people, it can't accommodate a few million more if need be?
In theory yes. In practice no-one wants them. Why would they?
So, how are you going to go about selling your position to European electorates? There's room, but so what? Simply to reach the same population density as the UK, Poland, for example, would need to accept approximately fifty million migrants. It doesn't follow that this is a good idea.
Well, if I knew how to sell it I'd be out there selling it! That's a different issue, and thankfully one I don't have to deal with. I guess it's about convincing people that letting these people in could be a good thing. I don't know how to do that either, but it can't be beyond the wit of man.
Meanwhile, the Netherlands continues its progressive collapse into lockdown. Bars, restaurants and most shops have to close at 5pm from Sunday, which will effectively wreck their hospitality trade all over again.
I've just read this in the summary feed on the Beeb so I don't know what support is being offered, but presumably a lot of these businesses are going to need Government handouts again or they'll collapse, especially since I think we can assume that this is likely to end up in a full lockdown until at least March.
We know from last Winter's experience how long it takes to get out of the lockdown trap once it's been sprung.
The lights are going out all over europe. Who knows when they will be lit again.
A little more on the Dutch collapse:
The Netherlands will be “effectively closed from 5pm to 5am” according to remarks by caretaker prime minister Mark Rutte, announcing new Covid restrictions from Sunday.
Speaking at a press conference announcing the partial lockdown, he said: “We have to be realistic, the daily figures are still too high.” Rutte added that the government had failed to get across the message that people with symptoms needed to get tested, and took the blame himself, according to AFP.
Bars, restaurants and shops will be closed early to curb a spike in cases. Schools will stay open, despite the largest rise being among children.
I confidently predict that these measures will prove useless. Scapegoating hospitality is a universal response, because it is an easy and obvious target and can be readily shut down by diktat, but AIUI the large bulk of transmission has already been estimated to take place in health and care settings, educational establishments, supermarkets, and in gatherings in private homes.
If, as seems to be the case, the Dutch population has insufficient immunity to prevent Delta from sinking the hospitals under Winter conditions, then it's hard lockdown until the Spring. Again. They'll be locking up schoolkids and telling everyone to socialise via Zoom within a week or two - though whether the population will choose to defy social isolation edicts, especially with Christmas round the corner, has to be questionable at the very least.
I was having this debate with Rob Smithson. When the Dutch first relocked-down, he was optimistic they would reopen soon. A short circuit breaker. I said no. Because once you start lockdowns all the psychological pressure is to keep them, even tighten them. It takes an incredibly bold politician to risk reopening (esp around Xmas!) - and I fear it will be the same here. The Dutch will now be confined for many weeks.
They'll be under house arrest for months. Ditto most of continental Europe. Perhaps one or two governments might try the kind of experiment/misadventure that Boris Johnson did at the back end of 2020 - circuit breaker, partial reopening, renewed panic, ending in total lockdown - but the endpoint seems inevitable.
I think that Britain will manage to resist for the rest of the year, but there may well be countermeasures in January once the flu season really starts to bite - though, again, I'm not at all sure that anything other than edicts against household mixing would do any good under such circumstances, and even the efficacy of those will depend on what percentage of the population is willing to put up with that kind of bullshit yet again.
Hopefully we'll be lucky and we won't have to find out.
Wasn’t Macron right that AZ turned out to only be quasi effective?
Even the UK’s given up on it now.
Is that a serious comment? Because he was not even close to being right, and his comments were rooted in absurd political distraction going on at the time.
Even if other vaccines were/are better, particularly with this or that variant, surely the comment about the best vaccine being the one available to give you holds true, since all the major ones did good to excellent jobs.
Wasn’t Macron right that AZ turned out to only be quasi effective?
Even the UK’s given up on it now.
Is that a serious comment? Because he was not even close to being right, and his comments were an absurdity rooted in absurd political distraction going on at the time.
Not a serious comment. Except…there was a grain of truth in it. Just a grain.
North Yorkshire Police, Fire and Crime Commissioner
Conservative 60.8% (-0.2)
Labour 39.2 (+0.2)
Total votes 68,655
Conservative hold
Why don't we over-analyse this poll like all the Labour ones last night which showed Starmer must now resign?!?!?
This week's locals were better than expected for the conservatives, good for the lib dems, especially in remain areas, but poor for labour at a time when Starmer should be well ahead
Are you saying LOTO got a turkey this Thanksgiving?
BTW, a belated Happy Thanksgiving to all PBers!
On Wed there was a power outage, only ten minutes but it knocked my decrepit tech temporarily for a loop.
BTW, the outage was caused at a construction site for a new mega-apartment building about 5 blocks from my humble abode, when a worker trimming trees came into contact with a live power line, and was nearly electrocuted. Hopefully will be OK, but certainly raises some very serious questions re: safety of this work site.
Cardiff Rugby club and Scarletts are both in South Africa and are looking to repatriate their players and officials back to the UK but do not have a way of doing so at present
Either someone charters them a plane or they'll be spending the next six months on an extended break in Cape Town.
Scarlets and Cardiff need to stay in SA until at least after March 25th so that the Warriors can claim the points (although they are bound to win both fixtures anyway).
I am a celebrity cancelled for the first time tonight and I am not surprised in view of the howling NNW gale that is due to intensify and is dangerous
The castle is 8 miles from us and within half a mile of our daughter and her family
And Madeley out having been immersed in a container of rotten fish and fallen ill.
The local news suggest it wasn't that offal but that he ate a flapjack of the floor when in his group
Anyway it is not our cup of tea, but it has done wonders for the castle and Abergele
Of course, one might still wonder whether anything interesting has happened at Abergele since the railway disaster of 1868. But I speak out of partial ignorance.
Wasn’t Macron right that AZ turned out to only be quasi effective?
Even the UK’s given up on it now.
Is that a serious comment? Because he was not even close to being right, and his comments were an absurdity rooted in absurd political distraction going on at the time.
Not a serious comment. Except…there was a grain of truth in it. Just a grain.
Not really, especially not in the context of the quote.
Wasn’t Macron right that AZ turned out to only be quasi effective?
Even the UK’s given up on it now.
Is that a serious comment? Because he was not even close to being right, and his comments were an absurdity rooted in absurd political distraction going on at the time.
Not a serious comment. Except…there was a grain of truth in it. Just a grain.
No, there wasn’t. I genuinely don’t know what you are referring to.
Meanwhile some candidates for French President such as Michel Barnier now saying Le Touquet agreement (whereby France polices UK external border in Calais) should be scrapped, and refugees allowed to go to the UK to apply there…
UK should ask all asylum seekers to attend their French embassies to be processed which would be interesting
And if they say no? This is the problem with simple answers to complex problems. There aren't any.
This is all going to end with about half-a-million migrants crossing the Channel in dinghies every year and none of them ever being deported. The dreams of the open borders lunatics being made flesh (except for the part where the occasional dinghy occupant drowns, at least until the inevitable court case forces the Government to buy them all tickets to come over on the Eurostar.)
That'll all go down well in Hartlepool, I'm sure.
Good job we took back control. Or maybe a slogan isn't sufficient?
All of europe is going to get tough on migrants....if the climate change people are right there are over the next 3 or so decades 2 billion or so deplaced due to climate change....most of which will be heading towards europe from africa and the middle east. There was 28 countries in europe before we left....2 billion/28 is going to be about 71 million per country.....cant see any european country willing to take in anywhere like that number so the borders will be militarised and the migrants repulsed.
If the worst climate change predictions are right, then part of low lying Europe eg the Netherlands, will disappear. Africa also will still have far more land than Europe even if it does get even hotter than it is now.
Though yes uncontrolled immigration and boat crossings would lead to the populist right getting elected on the Continent sooner or later to enforce tighter borders.
Although it might lead to a religious revival in western Europe, as Africans do tend to be more religious than western Europeans. The more western Europe has low birthrates and African migrants come to western Europe, the more we will shift away from secularism
Much of Essex will go as well. You should make more of an effort to look for the upside.
Most of Epping though is up a hill and protected by a forest.
Much of London, especially the part nearest the Thames and the old docklands, would go before Epping does
Any Brexity uplands will be seized by younger, fitter and frankly sexier Remainers, I’m afraid.
You’re shit out of luck.
There will be very few of those left given the surge in the populist right to control the boat crossings
Are you sure the upcoming generation will go right? That’s not what my grandchildren tell me.
They regard me as just about Left of centre. Which is slightly upsetting TBH!
Under 25s have voted Labour at every general election since 1987, they always get more conservative as they get older
While I take your point, the majority of my voting grandchildren are over 25, and show no sign of changing their opinions.
Exlcuding the fact you are obviously a leftwing family, how many are homeowners? Generally most people start voting Conservative once they get a mortgage and start the process of home ownership.
Certainly the Tories have won home owners with a mortgage at every general election excluding those Blair won.
Are they graduates? If so they will also be less likely to vote for the populist right than the working class and non graduate lower middle class, even amongst the young
I can remember seeing some voting stats when Ted Heath was Tory leader. Looked like game-over for the Tories when the oldies died off.
Indeed and in 1997 Blair even won pensioners, times change.
However generally at most elections young people are Labour, the middle aged are swing voters and pensioners are Tories
I guess count me in as genuinely liberal! Threats of sending a bunch of migrants EUwards will only be an effective tactic if the EU demonstrate that it can harm them. They do this by wetting the bed or letting people die in the cold. Or both. The EU has ~500 million people, it can't accommodate a few million more if need be?
In theory yes. In practice no-one wants them. Why would they?
So, how are you going to go about selling your position to European electorates? There's room, but so what? Simply to reach the same population density as the UK, Poland, for example, would need to accept approximately fifty million migrants. It doesn't follow that this is a good idea.
The only recent example of acceptance of large-scale migration was Merkel's decision on the Syrian migrants. Thst did cause considerable controversy for a while, and various people here predicted that it would send far-right (AfD) support through the roof. There were reports of women being harassed which attracted enormous coverage and not a little barely-concealed Schadenfreude in right-wing circles.
But what happened in the end? The Christian Democrats lost votes heavily to the SPD, with no strong position on the issue, and the Greens, who favoured having more migrants. The AfD drifted downwards. By and large, the new arrivals settled down and most seem to have caused little trouble.
Some people get really worked up by this stuff, and clearly it was a significant factor in Brexit. Others do feel concerned, but then get distracted, as with many other issues (sleaze is one). As Tony Blair said, what disturbs people more seriously is not migration itself, but the sense of loss of control. Most people are up for a reasonably liberal policy, so long as they feel it's a deliberate, managed policy rather than a stampede.
Most impressive French spokeswoman on BBC News. It really is time this country rid itself of this quite dreadful Prime Minister and Home Secretary. They are well beyond embarrassing.
Macron and Boris are equally dreadful and both are embarrassing
Thank goodness you could only vote for one of them otherwise the embarrassment would be excruciating.
Just accidentally caught Neil Oliver on GBNews. Rocking the double denim.
Definite whiff of occupant of cult compound under siege by the FBI about him nowadays.
NEW: Paris issues outdoor mask mandate for public places
Outdoors? Like, on the boulevard saint-michel? Crazy
And completely bloody pointless.
COVID theatre. Nothing more.
We’ve had Covid theatre for ages now.
I went to a hawk display thing way back in May that requires us to sanitise our hands and I remarked to my wife that it was all Covid theatre.
There are still places insisting on it.
Getting the booster required me to sanitise my hands three times in twenty yards, with nothing to touch in that time. Pure theatre. It’s an aerosol transmission, and I wasn’t touching anything.
Sorry if this has been said before. This market on Scottish independence is meaningless regardless of the odds. There isn't the tiniest chance of Ref2 by the end of 2022. Which is 13 months away in the middle of a continuing pandemic in circumstances which would destroy Nicola's career.
Most impressive French spokeswoman on BBC News. It really is time this country rid itself of this quite dreadful Prime Minister and Home Secretary. They are well beyond embarrassing.
Macron and Boris are equally dreadful and both are embarrassing
Thank goodness you could only vote for one of them otherwise the embarrassment would be excruciating.
Just accidentally caught Neil Oliver on GBNews. Rocking the double denim.
Definite whiff of occupant of cult compound under siege by the FBI about him nowadays.
I confess all I know of him is that he was one of the dudes on Coast. Moved on a bit since thosedays I suppose?
Wasn’t Macron right that AZ turned out to only be quasi effective?
Even the UK’s given up on it now.
Is that a serious comment? Because he was not even close to being right, and his comments were an absurdity rooted in absurd political distraction going on at the time.
Not a serious comment. Except…there was a grain of truth in it. Just a grain.
A single grain, if that is all there is, is usually inconsequential.
Am I right that Javid crushed some Welsh Labour fool who was demanding that rugby players be evacuated from South Africa ?
From Guardian blog of this morning's Commons appearance by Javid:
Labour MP Ruth Jones asks about sporting events due to take place in South Africa this weekend, including the United Rugby Championship which Cardiff Rugby and Scarlets Rugby have travelled to.
She asks what assistance is being given to them to get them home before the midday deadline for the red list.
Javid says whether it’s sports teams or British tourists that find themselves in these countries, this is “very difficult news” but he hopes they understand.
On the rugby teams specifically, the health secretary says:
Nothing. We won’t do anything to help them get back before this deadline. Because I think anyone who’s in South Africa, the best thing to do is to come back after 4am on Sunday and go into hotel quarantine.
I am back in the warm after getting a bit cold out shopping and now carefully looking through tomorrow’s Race cards. If it’s too windy for Rugby as it’s cancelled already to protect spectators, maybe the Fighting Fifth has battle on its hands just to run if racecourse needs to protect spectators too? Though Falcons will try to fly in it tomorrow so must have got told tomorrow afternoon less wild?
Can I wrap myself in Glory this week tipping a winner?
Newcastle already deemed good to soft before Arwen arrives. I don’t tend to bet large if winner isn’t obvious. Fighting Fifth looks like a big battle of horses all with an excellent claim to the win, as it should be as a high class race, and I’ll listen to you as you dissect each claim to the one you will back, but I admit a bias for front runners, and I admit Not So Sleepy has no success at all over a race distance that looks a long way too far, but has had its best days over soft or heavy ground. As the favourites stand there getting nithered and soaked in the storm, Not So Sleepy might be feeling in its element? Maybe?
Newcastle 15:15 Not So Sleepy (needs rain, sleet, wind, cold to distract the favourites, a bit of fog so they can’t see how far ahead he is might help as well)
Indeed - a lot of uncertainty with the weather. I'm far from convinced Newcastle will survive - if it does, the ground will likely be a lot softer. That won't help SCEAU ROYAL or SILVER STREAK but gives MONMIRAL a chance against EPATANTE. In the Rehearsal, I think GLEN FORSA each way at 7s might be a good shout.
At Newbury, we're again guessing with the weather. It's a really trappy card and one I'm swerving with all the unknowns.
With no Lingfield this week, I've had a quick look at Wolverhampton and my eye is drawn to DARAKAH, a newcomer for Charlie Hills in the 5.30. 5s in a fillies maiden.
Can’t sleep… had a thought… maybe this #B11529 is karma / Mother Nature’s revenge on humanity for not helping Africa enough with vaccines. Because this model is OMG bad… it shouldn’t have happened if we controlled the pandemic by now.
"Mother Nature" didn't panic the SA govt into selling their AZ vaccines on the back of dud information, compounding vaccine hesitancy. "Mother Nature" didn't preside over a catastrophic HIV epidemic where DEputy President Zuma advocated showering to avoid infection, leading to a large population of immunocompromised people, which likely facilitated this variants emergence.
Wasn’t Macron right that AZ turned out to only be quasi effective?
Even the UK’s given up on it now.
Is that a serious comment? Because he was not even close to being right, and his comments were an absurdity rooted in absurd political distraction going on at the time.
Not a serious comment. Except…there was a grain of truth in it. Just a grain.
No, there wasn’t. I genuinely don’t know what you are referring to.
Yes you do. It’s considered to have inferior efficacy to Pfizer and Moderna, which is why we no longer use it in the U.K.
According to the chief South Africa medical officer, the new variant is probably very mild despite being more infectious.
Could be the endgame then. More infectious but milder would be ideal.
This is the ultimate destiny of Covid-19: that it gradually turns into just one more cold virus. How long that will take, and whether Omicron might turn out to be an important step along that path, who knows? We can but hope.
Can’t sleep… had a thought… maybe this #B11529 is karma / Mother Nature’s revenge on humanity for not helping Africa enough with vaccines. Because this model is OMG bad… it shouldn’t have happened if we controlled the pandemic by now.
"Mother Nature" didn't panic the SA govt into selling their AZ vaccines on the back of dud information, compounding vaccine hesitancy. "Mother Nature" didn't preside over a catastrophic HIV epidemic where DEputy President Zuma advocated showering to avoid infection, leading to a large population of immunocompromised people, which likely facilitated this variants emergence.
Not the first person to be pushing this fake narrative. I expect to hear lots more of it over the coming days and weeks.
Wasn’t Macron right that AZ turned out to only be quasi effective?
Even the UK’s given up on it now.
Is that a serious comment? Because he was not even close to being right, and his comments were an absurdity rooted in absurd political distraction going on at the time.
Not a serious comment. Except…there was a grain of truth in it. Just a grain.
No, there wasn’t. I genuinely don’t know what you are referring to.
Yes you do. It’s considered to have inferior efficacy to Pfizer and Moderna, which is why we no longer use it in the U.K.
Antibody levels is not the whole story. The immune system is complicated. And besides Macron wasn’t talking about that was he?
Most impressive French spokeswoman on BBC News. It really is time this country rid itself of this quite dreadful Prime Minister and Home Secretary. They are well beyond embarrassing.
Macron and Boris are equally dreadful and both are embarrassing
Thank goodness you could only vote for one of them otherwise the embarrassment would be excruciating.
Just accidentally caught Neil Oliver on GBNews. Rocking the double denim.
Is 'rocking the double denim' an euphemism for something unfortunate?
His convenorship of the National Trust for Scotland is as good a piece of evidence as any that Scotland is, contrary to PBTory myth, not a one party state.
Wasn’t Macron right that AZ turned out to only be quasi effective?
Even the UK’s given up on it now.
Is that a serious comment? Because he was not even close to being right, and his comments were an absurdity rooted in absurd political distraction going on at the time.
Not a serious comment. Except…there was a grain of truth in it. Just a grain.
No, there wasn’t. I genuinely don’t know what you are referring to.
Yes you do. It’s considered to have inferior efficacy to Pfizer and Moderna, which is why we no longer use it in the U.K.
Also because we overbought on supplies and the AZ doses are easier for less developed countries to use, hence we are using the vast mRNA stocks we bought and releasing AZ elsewhere.
Most impressive French spokeswoman on BBC News. It really is time this country rid itself of this quite dreadful Prime Minister and Home Secretary. They are well beyond embarrassing.
Macron and Boris are equally dreadful and both are embarrassing
Thank goodness you could only vote for one of them otherwise the embarrassment would be excruciating.
Just accidentally caught Neil Oliver on GBNews. Rocking the double denim.
Definite whiff of occupant of cult compound under siege by the FBI about him nowadays.
I confess all I know of him is that he was one of the dudes on Coast. Moved on a bit since thosedays I suppose?
Wasn’t Macron right that AZ turned out to only be quasi effective?
Even the UK’s given up on it now.
Is that a serious comment? Because he was not even close to being right, and his comments were an absurdity rooted in absurd political distraction going on at the time.
Not a serious comment. Except…there was a grain of truth in it. Just a grain.
A single grain, if that is all there is, is usually inconsequential.
Mr/Dr Oliver was recently rather keen to prove that the Union of 1707 dated back to the Palaeolithic or something, in some way which was never very clear to me. He is, erm, one to wear his British nationalism on his sleeve.
Wasn’t Macron right that AZ turned out to only be quasi effective?
Even the UK’s given up on it now.
Is that a serious comment? Because he was not even close to being right, and his comments were an absurdity rooted in absurd political distraction going on at the time.
Not a serious comment. Except…there was a grain of truth in it. Just a grain.
No, there wasn’t. I genuinely don’t know what you are referring to.
Yes you do. It’s considered to have inferior efficacy to Pfizer and Moderna, which is why we no longer use it in the U.K.
Considered by whom? Handelsblatt? Macron? The WHO?
It may have lower initial anti-body response - but that's only half the story - there is evidence of a stronger T-cell response - which is what our bodies rely upon longer term.
I am a celebrity cancelled for the first time tonight and I am not surprised in view of the howling NNW gale that is due to intensify and is dangerous
The castle is 8 miles from us and within half a mile of our daughter and her family
And Madeley out having been immersed in a container of rotten fish and fallen ill.
The local news suggest it wasn't that offal but that he ate a flapjack of the floor when in his group
Anyway it is not our cup of tea, but it has done wonders for the castle and Abergele
Of course, one might still wonder whether anything interesting has happened at Abergele since the railway disaster of 1868. But I speak out of partial ignorance.
I am a celebrity cancelled for the first time tonight and I am not surprised in view of the howling NNW gale that is due to intensify and is dangerous
The castle is 8 miles from us and within half a mile of our daughter and her family
And Madeley out having been immersed in a container of rotten fish and fallen ill.
The local news suggest it wasn't that offal but that he ate a flapjack of the floor when in his group
Anyway it is not our cup of tea, but it has done wonders for the castle and Abergele
Of course, one might still wonder whether anything interesting has happened at Abergele since the railway disaster of 1868. But I speak out of partial ignorance.
My daughter has given us two of our grandchildren, my granddaughter 18 and grandson 12
I guess count me in as genuinely liberal! Threats of sending a bunch of migrants EUwards will only be an effective tactic if the EU demonstrate that it can harm them. They do this by wetting the bed or letting people die in the cold. Or both. The EU has ~500 million people, it can't accommodate a few million more if need be?
In theory yes. In practice no-one wants them. Why would they?
So, how are you going to go about selling your position to European electorates? There's room, but so what? Simply to reach the same population density as the UK, Poland, for example, would need to accept approximately fifty million migrants. It doesn't follow that this is a good idea.
The only recent example of acceptance of large-scale migration was Merkel's decision on the Syrian migrants. Thst did cause considerable controversy for a while, and various people here predicted that it would send far-right (AfD) support through the roof. There were reports of women being harassed which attracted enormous coverage and not a little barely-concealed Schadenfreude in right-wing circles.
But what happened in the end? The Christian Democrats lost votes heavily to the SPD, with no strong position on the issue, and the Greens, who favoured having more migrants. The AfD drifted downwards. By and large, the new arrivals settled down and most seem to have caused little trouble.
Some people get really worked up by this stuff, and clearly it was a significant factor in Brexit. Others do feel concerned, but then get distracted, as with many other issues (sleaze is one). As Tony Blair said, what disturbs people more seriously is not migration itself, but the sense of loss of control. Most people are up for a reasonably liberal policy, so long as they feel it's a deliberate, managed policy rather than a stampede.
I also believe that your conclusion is correct, which explains polling results suggesting that attitudes to immigration liberalised after Brexit. The entire problem with the Channel migrant situation is that it is (a) an uncontrolled mish-mash of arrivals, (b) the public suspects (correctly) that nearly all of them will either disappear into the black economy never to be seen again, or will end up being allowed to stay regardless of the strength or weakness of their case, and (c) the numbers involved are increasing all the time and are potentially almost limitless.
I think that people will accept fairly large numbers of deserving and security-screened cases: cut off the flow of irregular migration, and create an efficient system to receive and process asylum applications, and you solve the problem. Unfortunately, I also think that there is no governmental will to do either of these things.
I am a celebrity cancelled for the first time tonight and I am not surprised in view of the howling NNW gale that is due to intensify and is dangerous
The castle is 8 miles from us and within half a mile of our daughter and her family
And Madeley out having been immersed in a container of rotten fish and fallen ill.
The local news suggest it wasn't that offal but that he ate a flapjack of the floor when in his group
Anyway it is not our cup of tea, but it has done wonders for the castle and Abergele
Of course, one might still wonder whether anything interesting has happened at Abergele since the railway disaster of 1868. But I speak out of partial ignorance.
I am a celebrity cancelled for the first time tonight and I am not surprised in view of the howling NNW gale that is due to intensify and is dangerous
The castle is 8 miles from us and within half a mile of our daughter and her family
And Madeley out having been immersed in a container of rotten fish and fallen ill.
The local news suggest it wasn't that offal but that he ate a flapjack of the floor when in his group
Anyway it is not our cup of tea, but it has done wonders for the castle and Abergele
Of course, one might still wonder whether anything interesting has happened at Abergele since the railway disaster of 1868. But I speak out of partial ignorance.
My daughter has given us two of our grandchildren, my granddaughter 18 and grandson 12
Ah! That is definitely of interest. My congratulations.
Most impressive French spokeswoman on BBC News. It really is time this country rid itself of this quite dreadful Prime Minister and Home Secretary. They are well beyond embarrassing.
Macron and Boris are equally dreadful and both are embarrassing
Thank goodness you could only vote for one of them otherwise the embarrassment would be excruciating.
Just accidentally caught Neil Oliver on GBNews. Rocking the double denim.
Definite whiff of occupant of cult compound under siege by the FBI about him nowadays.
He’s an arse. What is it about historians? Oliver, Sharkey!
Wasn’t Macron right that AZ turned out to only be quasi effective?
Even the UK’s given up on it now.
Is that a serious comment? Because he was not even close to being right, and his comments were an absurdity rooted in absurd political distraction going on at the time.
Not a serious comment. Except…there was a grain of truth in it. Just a grain.
No, there wasn’t. I genuinely don’t know what you are referring to.
Yes you do. It’s considered to have inferior efficacy to Pfizer and Moderna, which is why we no longer use it in the U.K.
Considered by whom? Handelsblatt? Macron? The WHO?
It may have lower initial anti-body response - but that's only half the story - there is evidence of a stronger T-cell response - which is what our bodies rely upon longer term.
The FT has done lots of nice charts on real world efficacy from the UK"s own data, and if you are going single vaccine type, AZ is not as good as Pfizer. Indeed, if you are using a two dose of the same vaccine type, it's about twenty percentage points worse than Pfizer at every point on the chart.
That being said, AZ followed by Pfizer seems to offer the very best protection of any two-dose regime, and it's highly likely that AZ-AZ-Pfizer will prove to be significantly more efficacious than Pfizer-Pfizer-Pfizer.
Most impressive French spokeswoman on BBC News. It really is time this country rid itself of this quite dreadful Prime Minister and Home Secretary. They are well beyond embarrassing.
Macron and Boris are equally dreadful and both are embarrassing
Thank goodness you could only vote for one of them otherwise the embarrassment would be excruciating.
Just accidentally caught Neil Oliver on GBNews. Rocking the double denim.
Definite whiff of occupant of cult compound under siege by the FBI about him nowadays.
He’s an arse. What is it about historians? Oliver, Sharkey!
That's unfair. There are many superb historians. Tom Devine for instance. I really like his book on the Lowland clearances.
Wasn’t Macron right that AZ turned out to only be quasi effective?
Even the UK’s given up on it now.
Is that a serious comment? Because he was not even close to being right, and his comments were an absurdity rooted in absurd political distraction going on at the time.
Not a serious comment. Except…there was a grain of truth in it. Just a grain.
No, there wasn’t. I genuinely don’t know what you are referring to.
Yes you do. It’s considered to have inferior efficacy to Pfizer and Moderna, which is why we no longer use it in the U.K.
Also because we overbought on supplies and the AZ doses are easier for less developed countries to use, hence we are using the vast mRNA stocks we bought and releasing AZ elsewhere.
Also, mixing and matching vaccine types appears to offer by far the best protection. And most Brits got AZ for their first dose.
Wasn’t Macron right that AZ turned out to only be quasi effective?
Even the UK’s given up on it now.
Is that a serious comment? Because he was not even close to being right, and his comments were an absurdity rooted in absurd political distraction going on at the time.
Not a serious comment. Except…there was a grain of truth in it. Just a grain.
No, there wasn’t. I genuinely don’t know what you are referring to.
Yes you do. It’s considered to have inferior efficacy to Pfizer and Moderna, which is why we no longer use it in the U.K.
Also because we overbought on supplies and the AZ doses are easier for less developed countries to use, hence we are using the vast mRNA stocks we bought and releasing AZ elsewhere.
Also, mixing and matching vaccine types appears to offer by far the best protection. And most Brits got AZ for their first dose.
I think it was a flaw in UK approach not to ensure with the third dose that everybody has had a mix and match.
Can’t sleep… had a thought… maybe this #B11529 is karma / Mother Nature’s revenge on humanity for not helping Africa enough with vaccines. Because this model is OMG bad… it shouldn’t have happened if we controlled the pandemic by now.
"Mother Nature" didn't panic the SA govt into selling their AZ vaccines on the back of dud information, compounding vaccine hesitancy. "Mother Nature" didn't preside over a catastrophic HIV epidemic where DEputy President Zuma advocated showering to avoid infection, leading to a large population of immunocompromised people, which likely facilitated this variants emergence.
South Africa dumped AZ on the back of an absolutely appalling piece of research.
I am a celebrity cancelled for the first time tonight and I am not surprised in view of the howling NNW gale that is due to intensify and is dangerous
The castle is 8 miles from us and within half a mile of our daughter and her family
And Madeley out having been immersed in a container of rotten fish and fallen ill.
The local news suggest it wasn't that offal but that he ate a flapjack of the floor when in his group
Anyway it is not our cup of tea, but it has done wonders for the castle and Abergele
Of course, one might still wonder whether anything interesting has happened at Abergele since the railway disaster of 1868. But I speak out of partial ignorance.
I am a celebrity cancelled for the first time tonight and I am not surprised in view of the howling NNW gale that is due to intensify and is dangerous
The castle is 8 miles from us and within half a mile of our daughter and her family
And Madeley out having been immersed in a container of rotten fish and fallen ill.
The local news suggest it wasn't that offal but that he ate a flapjack of the floor when in his group
Anyway it is not our cup of tea, but it has done wonders for the castle and Abergele
Of course, one might still wonder whether anything interesting has happened at Abergele since the railway disaster of 1868. But I speak out of partial ignorance.
My daughter has given us two of our grandchildren, my granddaughter 18 and grandson 12
Am I right that Javid crushed some Welsh Labour fool who was demanding that rugby players be evacuated from South Africa ?
From Guardian blog of this morning's Commons appearance by Javid:
Labour MP Ruth Jones asks about sporting events due to take place in South Africa this weekend, including the United Rugby Championship which Cardiff Rugby and Scarlets Rugby have travelled to.
She asks what assistance is being given to them to get them home before the midday deadline for the red list.
Javid says whether it’s sports teams or British tourists that find themselves in these countries, this is “very difficult news” but he hopes they understand.
On the rugby teams specifically, the health secretary says:
Nothing. We won’t do anything to help them get back before this deadline. Because I think anyone who’s in South Africa, the best thing to do is to come back after 4am on Sunday and go into hotel quarantine.
Someone understands the point of a quarantine then.
According to the chief South Africa medical officer, the new variant is probably very mild despite being more infectious.
Could be the endgame then. More infectious but milder would be ideal.
So, we should actually be encouraging people with it to come to the UK, so as to outcompete Delta?
Or we could KEEP WETTING THE BED.
Bit soon to propose that, but if it does turn out to be a milder form, then yes, throw open the doors and get it here... I volunteer @Leon to retrieve a viable sample for us.
Wasn’t Macron right that AZ turned out to only be quasi effective?
Even the UK’s given up on it now.
Is that a serious comment? Because he was not even close to being right, and his comments were an absurdity rooted in absurd political distraction going on at the time.
Not a serious comment. Except…there was a grain of truth in it. Just a grain.
No, there wasn’t. I genuinely don’t know what you are referring to.
Yes you do. It’s considered to have inferior efficacy to Pfizer and Moderna, which is why we no longer use it in the U.K.
Considered by whom? Handelsblatt? Macron? The WHO?
It may have lower initial anti-body response - but that's only half the story - there is evidence of a stronger T-cell response - which is what our bodies rely upon longer term.
The FT has done lots of nice charts on real world efficacy from the UK"s own data, and if you are going single vaccine type, AZ is not as good as Pfizer. Indeed, if you are using a two dose of the same vaccine type, it's about twenty percentage points worse than Pfizer at every point on the chart.
That being said, AZ followed by Pfizer seems to offer the very best protection of any two-dose regime, and it's highly likely that AZ-AZ-Pfizer will prove to be significantly more efficacious than Pfizer-Pfizer-Pfizer.
I would like to have a little spread bet with the "the Dutch will be under house arrest for months" crowd (I'm looking at you @pidgeon, and maybe you too @Leon).
Months - shall we say three? I.e. 90 days.
So, for every day longer than 90 days that the Dutch have curfews on bars and restaurants (mask mandates and vaxports don't count), I pay you 5 pounds and foe every day less, you pay me 5 pounds.
As I'm taking the upside, my losses are capped at 150 days (i.e. 240 days of curfews from here).
I would like to have a little spread bet with the "the Dutch will be under house arrest for months" crowd (I'm looking at you @pidgeon, and maybe you too @Leon).
Months - shall we say three? I.e. 90 days.
So, for every day longer than 90 days that the Dutch have curfews on bars and restaurants (mask mandates and vaxports don't count), I pay you 5 pounds and foe every day less, you pay me 5 pounds.
As I'm taking the upside, my losses are capped at 150 days (i.e. 240 days of curfews from here).
Who's up for that?
Did you resolve the Dutch hospital numbers issue ?
Meanwhile, the Netherlands continues its progressive collapse into lockdown. Bars, restaurants and most shops have to close at 5pm from Sunday, which will effectively wreck their hospitality trade all over again.
I've just read this in the summary feed on the Beeb so I don't know what support is being offered, but presumably a lot of these businesses are going to need Government handouts again or they'll collapse, especially since I think we can assume that this is likely to end up in a full lockdown until at least March.
We know from last Winter's experience how long it takes to get out of the lockdown trap once it's been sprung.
The lights are going out all over europe. Who knows when they will be lit again.
A little more on the Dutch collapse:
The Netherlands will be “effectively closed from 5pm to 5am” according to remarks by caretaker prime minister Mark Rutte, announcing new Covid restrictions from Sunday.
Speaking at a press conference announcing the partial lockdown, he said: “We have to be realistic, the daily figures are still too high.” Rutte added that the government had failed to get across the message that people with symptoms needed to get tested, and took the blame himself, according to AFP.
Bars, restaurants and shops will be closed early to curb a spike in cases. Schools will stay open, despite the largest rise being among children.
I confidently predict that these measures will prove useless. Scapegoating hospitality is a universal response, because it is an easy and obvious target and can be readily shut down by diktat, but AIUI the large bulk of transmission has already been estimated to take place in health and care settings, educational establishments, supermarkets, and in gatherings in private homes.
If, as seems to be the case, the Dutch population has insufficient immunity to prevent Delta from sinking the hospitals under Winter conditions, then it's hard lockdown until the Spring. Again. They'll be locking up schoolkids and telling everyone to socialise via Zoom within a week or two - though whether the population will choose to defy social isolation edicts, especially with Christmas round the corner, has to be questionable at the very least.
I was having this debate with Rob Smithson. When the Dutch first relocked-down, he was optimistic they would reopen soon. A short circuit breaker. I said no. Because once you start lockdowns all the psychological pressure is to keep them, even tighten them. It takes an incredibly bold politician to risk reopening (esp around Xmas!) - and I fear it will be the same here. The Dutch will now be confined for many weeks.
Circuit breakers don't work.
That's something we should really know and understand by now.
I would like to have a little spread bet with the "the Dutch will be under house arrest for months" crowd (I'm looking at you @pidgeon, and maybe you too @Leon).
Months - shall we say three? I.e. 90 days.
So, for every day longer than 90 days that the Dutch have curfews on bars and restaurants (mask mandates and vaxports don't count), I pay you 5 pounds and foe every day less, you pay me 5 pounds.
As I'm taking the upside, my losses are capped at 150 days (i.e. 240 days of curfews from here).
Who's up for that?
Did you resolve the Dutch hospital numbers issue ?
I haven't. TBH, I haven't even downloaded the CSV.
I am back in the warm after getting a bit cold out shopping and now carefully looking through tomorrow’s Race cards. If it’s too windy for Rugby as it’s cancelled already to protect spectators, maybe the Fighting Fifth has battle on its hands just to run if racecourse needs to protect spectators too? Though Falcons will try to fly in it tomorrow so must have got told tomorrow afternoon less wild?
Can I wrap myself in Glory this week tipping a winner?
Newcastle already deemed good to soft before Arwen arrives. I don’t tend to bet large if winner isn’t obvious. Fighting Fifth looks like a big battle of horses all with an excellent claim to the win, as it should be as a high class race, and I’ll listen to you as you dissect each claim to the one you will back, but I admit a bias for front runners, and I admit Not So Sleepy has no success at all over a race distance that looks a long way too far, but has had its best days over soft or heavy ground. As the favourites stand there getting nithered and soaked in the storm, Not So Sleepy might be feeling in its element? Maybe?
Newcastle 15:15 Not So Sleepy (needs rain, sleet, wind, cold to distract the favourites, a bit of fog so they can’t see how far ahead he is might help as well)
Indeed - a lot of uncertainty with the weather. I'm far from convinced Newcastle will survive - if it does, the ground will likely be a lot softer. That won't help SCEAU ROYAL or SILVER STREAK but gives MONMIRAL a chance against EPATANTE. In the Rehearsal, I think GLEN FORSA each way at 7s might be a good shout.
At Newbury, we're again guessing with the weather. It's a really trappy card and one I'm swerving with all the unknowns.
With no Lingfield this week, I've had a quick look at Wolverhampton and my eye is drawn to DARAKAH, a newcomer for Charlie Hills in the 5.30. 5s in a fillies maiden.
Brilliant thank you. 👍🏻
So are you on MONMIRAL Stodge.
Out of all those suggestions which one would you NAP and definitely be on yourself
Most impressive French spokeswoman on BBC News. It really is time this country rid itself of this quite dreadful Prime Minister and Home Secretary. They are well beyond embarrassing.
Macron and Boris are equally dreadful and both are embarrassing
Thank goodness you could only vote for one of them otherwise the embarrassment would be excruciating.
Just accidentally caught Neil Oliver on GBNews. Rocking the double denim.
Definite whiff of occupant of cult compound under siege by the FBI about him nowadays.
He’s an arse. What is it about historians? Oliver, Sharkey!
Most impressive French spokeswoman on BBC News. It really is time this country rid itself of this quite dreadful Prime Minister and Home Secretary. They are well beyond embarrassing.
Macron and Boris are equally dreadful and both are embarrassing
Thank goodness you could only vote for one of them otherwise the embarrassment would be excruciating.
Just accidentally caught Neil Oliver on GBNews. Rocking the double denim.
Definite whiff of occupant of cult compound under siege by the FBI about him nowadays.
He’s an arse. What is it about historians? Oliver, Sharkey!
Oi!
You're not an arse, doctor. But after some revisionist reinterpretation, perhaps you will be then?
Most impressive French spokeswoman on BBC News. It really is time this country rid itself of this quite dreadful Prime Minister and Home Secretary. They are well beyond embarrassing.
Macron and Boris are equally dreadful and both are embarrassing
Thank goodness you could only vote for one of them otherwise the embarrassment would be excruciating.
Just accidentally caught Neil Oliver on GBNews. Rocking the double denim.
Definite whiff of occupant of cult compound under siege by the FBI about him nowadays.
He’s an arse. What is it about historians? Oliver, Sharkey!
Oi!
You're not an arse, doctor. But after some revisionist reinterpretation, perhaps you will be then?
Most impressive French spokeswoman on BBC News. It really is time this country rid itself of this quite dreadful Prime Minister and Home Secretary. They are well beyond embarrassing.
Macron and Boris are equally dreadful and both are embarrassing
Thank goodness you could only vote for one of them otherwise the embarrassment would be excruciating.
Just accidentally caught Neil Oliver on GBNews. Rocking the double denim.
Definite whiff of occupant of cult compound under siege by the FBI about him nowadays.
He’s an arse. What is it about historians? Oliver, Sharkey!
Oi!
Are you an historian?
I read a proper history book about the real Merlin by Gordon Strachan, and was a very wise man, but also apparently a bit haughty though could be very light and funny too.
And I have also looked up you name “ydoethur “ in an old book.
"Left harms black people with woke anti-racism dogma, says US academic John McWhorter
A black liberal author has waded into America’s culture wars by arguing that “anti-racist” ideology has effectively become a religion that stifles debate and actually harms black people. The left, argues John McWhorter, a newspaper columnist and linguistics professor at Columbia University, has grown obsessed with “performing” virtue, not for the betterment of society but rather conformity and a sense of purpose." (£)
Most impressive French spokeswoman on BBC News. It really is time this country rid itself of this quite dreadful Prime Minister and Home Secretary. They are well beyond embarrassing.
Macron and Boris are equally dreadful and both are embarrassing
Thank goodness you could only vote for one of them otherwise the embarrassment would be excruciating.
Just accidentally caught Neil Oliver on GBNews. Rocking the double denim.
Definite whiff of occupant of cult compound under siege by the FBI about him nowadays.
He’s an arse. What is it about historians? Oliver, Sharkey!
Oi!
Are you an historian?
I read a proper history book about the real Merlin by Gordon Strachan, and was a very wise man, but also apparently a bit haughty though could be very light and funny too.
And I have also looked up you name “ydoethur “ in an old book.
Comments
The Lizard Men are always complaining to the Illuminati via the TriLateral Commission about it - they say that they can't get the foundation on evenly.
Paging @Stodge @Malcolm (aka Malc) @Topping @anyone who wants to join in PBs “Stud Club” and talk tomorrow’s racing.
I am back in the warm after getting a bit cold out shopping and now carefully looking through tomorrow’s Race cards. If it’s too windy for Rugby as it’s cancelled already to protect spectators, maybe the Fighting Fifth has battle on its hands just to run if racecourse needs to protect spectators too? Though Falcons will try to fly in it tomorrow so must have got told tomorrow afternoon less wild?
Can I wrap myself in Glory this week tipping a winner?
Newbury 13:50 - GLORY AND FORTUNE (NAP)
Newbury 14:25 - Soaring Glory (nb)
Newcastle already deemed good to soft before Arwen arrives.
I don’t tend to bet large if winner isn’t obvious. Fighting Fifth looks like a big battle of horses all with an excellent claim to the win, as it should be as a high class race, and I’ll listen to you as you dissect each claim to the one you will back, but I admit a bias for front runners, and I admit Not So Sleepy has no success at all over a race distance that looks a long way too far, but has had its best days over soft or heavy ground. As the favourites stand there getting nithered and soaked in the storm, Not So Sleepy might be feeling in its element? Maybe?
Newcastle 15:15 Not So Sleepy (needs rain, sleet, wind, cold to distract the favourites, a bit of fog so they can’t see how far ahead he is might help as well)
IANAE, just an optimistic old fool.
This is new. This feels different.
The Netherlands will be “effectively closed from 5pm to 5am” according to remarks by caretaker prime minister Mark Rutte, announcing new Covid restrictions from Sunday.
Speaking at a press conference announcing the partial lockdown, he said: “We have to be realistic, the daily figures are still too high.” Rutte added that the government had failed to get across the message that people with symptoms needed to get tested, and took the blame himself, according to AFP.
Bars, restaurants and shops will be closed early to curb a spike in cases. Schools will stay open, despite the largest rise being among children.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/nov/26/covid-news-live-new-variant-sparks-tougher-restrictions-in-india-and-singapore-ahead-of-who-meeting
I confidently predict that these measures will prove useless. Scapegoating hospitality is a universal response, because it is an easy and obvious target and can be readily shut down by diktat, but AIUI the large bulk of transmission has already been estimated to take place in health and care settings, educational establishments, supermarkets, and in gatherings in private homes.
If, as seems to be the case, the Dutch population has insufficient immunity to prevent Delta from sinking the hospitals under Winter conditions, then it's hard lockdown until the Spring. Again. They'll be locking up schoolkids and telling everyone to socialise via Zoom within a week or two - though whether the population will choose to defy social isolation edicts, especially with Christmas round the corner, has to be questionable at the very least.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/high-winds-and-rain-cause-concern-for-newcastles-fighting-fifth-fixture/524077?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=RP - News&utm_content=Newcastle&utm_term=Null
Even the UK’s given up on it now.
So, how are you going to go about selling your position to European electorates? There's room, but so what? Simply to reach the same population density as the UK, Poland, for example, would need to accept approximately fifty million migrants. It doesn't follow that this is a good idea.
So after a couple of weeks, you see some signs of things beginning to turn around (mostly increase slowing). So you continue with the lockdown.
This has been shown, time and again, in this epidemic.
And do supermarkets have to close at 5pm - if so how do people who work 9-5 type hours meant to do their shopping ?
Supermarkets should have maximum possible opening hours to reduce the congestion at any time and also give the vulnerable an opportunity to shop in the quiet hours.
Or each government will be accused at putting its people at risk when other countries are taking precautions.
I know you love the drama, but right now there is no need for me to worry.
Doesn't seem that masks were as useful as they claimed.
I think that Britain will manage to resist for the rest of the year, but there may well be countermeasures in January once the flu season really starts to bite - though, again, I'm not at all sure that anything other than edicts against household mixing would do any good under such circumstances, and even the efficacy of those will depend on what percentage of the population is willing to put up with that kind of bullshit yet again.
Hopefully we'll be lucky and we won't have to find out.
Even if other vaccines were/are better, particularly with this or that variant, surely the comment about the best vaccine being the one available to give you holds true, since all the major ones did good to excellent jobs.
Except…there was a grain of truth in it. Just a grain.
This week's locals were better than expected for the conservatives, good for the lib dems, especially in remain areas, but poor for labour at a time when Starmer should be well ahead
Are you saying LOTO got a turkey this Thanksgiving?
BTW, a belated Happy Thanksgiving to all PBers!
On Wed there was a power outage, only ten minutes but it knocked my decrepit tech temporarily for a loop.
BTW, the outage was caused at a construction site for a new mega-apartment building about 5 blocks from my humble abode, when a worker trimming trees came into contact with a live power line, and was nearly electrocuted. Hopefully will be OK, but certainly raises some very serious questions re: safety of this work site.
I went to a hawk display thing way back in May that requires us to sanitise our hands and I remarked to my wife that it was all Covid theatre.
There are still places insisting on it.
Titting about with masks is classic something-must-be-done-ism, and will make zero difference to this.
However generally at most elections young people are Labour, the middle aged are swing voters and pensioners are Tories
But what happened in the end? The Christian Democrats lost votes heavily to the SPD, with no strong position on the issue, and the Greens, who favoured having more migrants. The AfD drifted downwards. By and large, the new arrivals settled down and most seem to have caused little trouble.
Some people get really worked up by this stuff, and clearly it was a significant factor in Brexit. Others do feel concerned, but then get distracted, as with many other issues (sleaze is one). As Tony Blair said, what disturbs people more seriously is not migration itself, but the sense of loss of control. Most people are up for a reasonably liberal policy, so long as they feel it's a deliberate, managed policy rather than a stampede.
Edit: I see it has received the odd mention.
Labour MP Ruth Jones asks about sporting events due to take place in South Africa this weekend, including the United Rugby Championship which Cardiff Rugby and Scarlets Rugby have travelled to.
She asks what assistance is being given to them to get them home before the midday deadline for the red list.
Javid says whether it’s sports teams or British tourists that find themselves in these countries, this is “very difficult news” but he hopes they understand.
On the rugby teams specifically, the health secretary says:
Nothing. We won’t do anything to help them get back before this deadline. Because I think anyone who’s in South Africa, the best thing to do is to come back after 4am on Sunday and go into hotel quarantine.
At Newbury, we're again guessing with the weather. It's a really trappy card and one I'm swerving with all the unknowns.
With no Lingfield this week, I've had a quick look at Wolverhampton and my eye is drawn to DARAKAH, a newcomer for Charlie Hills in the 5.30. 5s in a fillies maiden.
Can’t sleep… had a thought… maybe this #B11529 is karma / Mother Nature’s revenge on humanity for not helping Africa enough with vaccines. Because this model is OMG bad… it shouldn’t have happened if we controlled the pandemic by now.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1464157920883527683?s=20
"Mother Nature" didn't panic the SA govt into selling their AZ vaccines on the back of dud information, compounding vaccine hesitancy. "Mother Nature" didn't preside over a catastrophic HIV epidemic where DEputy President Zuma advocated showering to avoid infection, leading to a large population of immunocompromised people, which likely facilitated this variants emergence.
It’s considered to have inferior efficacy to Pfizer and Moderna, which is why we no longer use it in the U.K.
His convenorship of the National Trust for Scotland is as good a piece of evidence as any that Scotland is, contrary to PBTory myth, not a one party state.
It may have lower initial anti-body response - but that's only half the story - there is evidence of a stronger T-cell response - which is what our bodies rely upon longer term.
I think that people will accept fairly large numbers of deserving and security-screened cases: cut off the flow of irregular migration, and create an efficient system to receive and process asylum applications, and you solve the problem. Unfortunately, I also think that there is no governmental will to do either of these things.
That being said, AZ followed by Pfizer seems to offer the very best protection of any two-dose regime, and it's highly likely that AZ-AZ-Pfizer will prove to be significantly more efficacious than Pfizer-Pfizer-Pfizer.
Or we could KEEP WETTING THE BED.
Scotland cut off
Months - shall we say three? I.e. 90 days.
So, for every day longer than 90 days that the Dutch have curfews on bars and restaurants (mask mandates and vaxports don't count), I pay you 5 pounds and foe every day less, you pay me 5 pounds.
As I'm taking the upside, my losses are capped at 150 days (i.e. 240 days of curfews from here).
Who's up for that?
That's something we should really know and understand by now.
https://apkgk.com/fr/dvtw.rlc1000
So are you on MONMIRAL Stodge.
Out of all those suggestions which one would you NAP and definitely be on yourself
I read a proper history book about the real Merlin by Gordon Strachan, and was a very wise man, but also apparently a bit haughty though could be very light and funny too.
And I have also looked up you name “ydoethur “ in an old book.
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=1jnBa3UwmgwC&pg=RA3-PA121&lpg=RA3-PA121&dq=doethur+similar+words+in+welsh&source=bl&ots=aYw8Y2921t&sig=ACfU3U3qO11WtqpXw50xDzc5fAKIFUIufw&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjAucaKqKD0AhUO_KQKHa0KAiEQ6AF6BAgTEAM#v=onepage&q=doethur similar words in welsh&f=false
So I have done the detective work and put two and two together. Have I outed a big secret hidden in your name?
Are you in fact a descendant of Merlin?
A black liberal author has waded into America’s culture wars by arguing that “anti-racist” ideology has effectively become a religion that stifles debate and actually harms black people. The left, argues John McWhorter, a newspaper columnist and linguistics professor at Columbia University, has grown obsessed with “performing” virtue, not for the betterment of society but rather conformity and a sense of purpose." (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/left-harms-black-people-with-woke-anti-racism-dogma-says-us-academic-john-mcwhorter-sq98cmspk
It says it hopes the vaccine will be ready for testing and manufacturing within a matter of weeks.