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On Smarkets its a 55% chance that Scotland will vote for Independence – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 2021 in General
imageOn Smarkets its a 55% chance that Scotland will vote for Independence – politicalbetting.com

The former head of political research at the BBC, Dave Cowling, has issued his latest polling table showing the results of all the surveys on how Scottish voters think another independence referendum would go. The last such vote was in 2014 when it was rejected by a margin of about 10%.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    edited November 2021
    First!

    Hmm, no mention in the T&Cs of whether the referendum has been graciously permitted by HYUFD and his allies?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301
    edited November 2021
    Second like Yes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Third rate as usual, like our diplomatic PM
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
  • FossFoss Posts: 437
    Pulpstar said:

    The massive antibody boost after the third jab should help us out a tonne, even if the antibody/antigen match is imperfect.
    Boosters for all 18+ and second doses for all 12-17 ought to be the rule now.

    The first batches of Molnupiravir should be arriving soon as well.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Probably right. Although you’re hardly the person to be posting about being worried about relative irrelevancies.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    What's interesting is the relative immutability of that 48:52 ratio. It's the modal ratio.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Brace. Lockdown


    "Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), earlier raised the prospect of lockdown curbs being reintroduced, warning that people must be braced for a 'change in restrictions' if the variant spreads to the UK."

    It is of course going to spread to the UK, it already has, for sure. So they are saying: Here Comes Lockdown

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10245459/Fears-Christmas-travel-ban-DELAY-new-Covid-strain.html
  • FPT:

    IanB2 said: Leon said:At least the Nunu has given some real meaning to "Black Friday", rather than the specious imported American wank

    Don’t knock it. I’ve ordered a trio of robot house cleaners at knock down prices that should clean the house while I sit posting to PB.


    Where from? My Roomba is on its last legs....
  • If there is one thing I am going to tell you today it is to IGNORE the media and the clickbait headlines on this new variant. There is NO plausible scenario this will take us back to square one and there is a lot of misinformation currently circulating. Working on a thread now.

    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464222680731820043?s=20
  • What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited November 2021
    No legal independence referendum will be allowed by this UK Tory government by the end of 2022, so this market will be void.

    Scotland's SNP government cannot achieve independence from the UK without UK government consent either, as the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998.

    Plus this market is out of date anyway given the fact No now leads in most indyref2 polls
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Leader Ratings this month... Boris's lead on GP is way down and Sir Keir leads in Net Satisfaction in all of them, although he is also less popular on both measurements than in October


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    Leon said:

    Brace. Lockdown


    "Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), earlier raised the prospect of lockdown curbs being reintroduced, warning that people must be braced for a 'change in restrictions' if the variant spreads to the UK."

    It is of course going to spread to the UK, it already has, for sure. So they are saying: Here Comes Lockdown

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10245459/Fears-Christmas-travel-ban-DELAY-new-Covid-strain.html

    Adam Finn can fuck off.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    Brace. Lockdown


    "Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), earlier raised the prospect of lockdown curbs being reintroduced, warning that people must be braced for a 'change in restrictions' if the variant spreads to the UK."

    It is of course going to spread to the UK, it already has, for sure. So they are saying: Here Comes Lockdown

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10245459/Fears-Christmas-travel-ban-DELAY-new-Covid-strain.html

    Adam Finn can fuck off.
    The man who didn't think we really needed booster jabs or to get the kids jabbed up...was no rush.
  • As an aside, the next variant will be called Xi.
  • eek said:

    All you need to know is this single line

    If no referendum is held by the end of 2022 this market will be void.

    Which means all you are doing is lending SMarkets your money for 13 months.

    Agreed.

    Its a complete waste of money betting on either Yes or No and anyone wanting to shape an agenda can bet on this essentially risk-free to shape the odds how they want.

    Even if an IndyRef2 happens this term there's no chance at all its happening next year. It'd be 2023 if there were to be one.

    Also worth noting the amount traded on this market: £257 - that's basically nothing on an exchange.

    Sorry Mike but this is a silly one as a thread header.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    Brace. Lockdown


    "Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), earlier raised the prospect of lockdown curbs being reintroduced, warning that people must be braced for a 'change in restrictions' if the variant spreads to the UK."

    It is of course going to spread to the UK, it already has, for sure. So they are saying: Here Comes Lockdown

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10245459/Fears-Christmas-travel-ban-DELAY-new-Covid-strain.html

    Adam Finn can fuck off.
    Is that the same Adam Finn who didn't think we should have boosters or vaccinate kids?

    ****ing **** can **** right off.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth if Nu proves deadly and vaccine resistant (which hopefully it won't), I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation until my dying breath
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Interesting graph, mapping out Nu's alleged competitive advantage


    https://twitter.com/Drphilgood92/status/1464233371010310146?s=20

    IF this is right - and it has been cited by reliable sources, though of course we dunno yet - it looks like the Noo should completely supplant all other variants in 3 weeks -ie go from being 1% of cases to becoming 100% of cases (I'm not sure how lockdown would affect this, it might not have any affect with a virus this contagious)

    Three weeks. That is devilish quick. To illustrate, if it hits 1% next week it will peak before Christmas

    As Chris said on an earlier thread, at least this is going to be fast.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,031
    Latest YouGov




  • Just a friendly reminder. Despite what you might hear, there has yet to be a variant that isn’t susceptible to the vaccines.

    Let’s talk about Nu (B.1.1.529) clear up some misconceptions, and talk about why it is unlikely it will evade vaccine-induced immunity.


    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464234680379662336?s=20
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    I thought of you last night :)


  • HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    You're back! We were worried about you


    Good to see you, old boy
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited November 2021

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    edited November 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth if Nu proves deadly and vaccine resistant (which hopefully it won't), I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation until my dying breath
    That's not a nice thing to say. An unkind person, after all, might express the hope that the generation in question is that of Caenorhabditis elegans. I wouldn't want to be put in that position.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default)
    That is actually a statement that the Scots don't count in Westminster voting. Profoundly subversvive if you think about it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    This is more cheering than Max's 9 months?

    "PFIZER SAYS IF VACCINE-ESCAPE VARIANT EMERGES, COS EXPECT TO DEVELOP, PRODUCE TAILOR-MADE VACCINE AGAINST THAT VARIANT IN ABOUT 100 DAYS"


    https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1464222372161101825?s=20
  • glwglw Posts: 7,962

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
    Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Leon said:

    This is more cheering than Max's 9 months?

    "PFIZER SAYS IF VACCINE-ESCAPE VARIANT EMERGES, COS EXPECT TO DEVELOP, PRODUCE TAILOR-MADE VACCINE AGAINST THAT VARIANT IN ABOUT 100 DAYS"


    https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1464222372161101825?s=20

    That's really good news, though development of the vaccine isn't the difficult bit, it's getting trials done and approvals/EUAs from the MHRA/FDA. That adds at least a few months and then there will be a few months to actually give it to people. My nine month estimate included the latter two, I suspect Pfizer are talking about design to first doses rolling off the production line.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    Brace. Lockdown


    "Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), earlier raised the prospect of lockdown curbs being reintroduced, warning that people must be braced for a 'change in restrictions' if the variant spreads to the UK."

    It is of course going to spread to the UK, it already has, for sure. So they are saying: Here Comes Lockdown

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10245459/Fears-Christmas-travel-ban-DELAY-new-Covid-strain.html

    Adam Finn can fuck off.
    Is that the same Adam Finn who didn't think we should have boosters or vaccinate kids?

    ****ing **** can **** right off.
    Him and Dingwall are probably the two individuals that have done the most to harm vaccine uptake amongst teenagers in the entire country.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    More than £65bn was wiped off the UK’s leading share index, reflecting fears that a new coronavirus variant could wreak further havoc on international business https://trib.al/tfYmRyF
  • Leon said:

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    You're back! We were worried about you


    Good to see you, old boy
    Just a passing visit, unless we all get locked down again. Unfortunately not only been too busy to post on PB, but haven't had the chance to visit Peppa Pig world either.
  • Leon said:

    This is more cheering than Max's 9 months?

    "PFIZER SAYS IF VACCINE-ESCAPE VARIANT EMERGES, COS EXPECT TO DEVELOP, PRODUCE TAILOR-MADE VACCINE AGAINST THAT VARIANT IN ABOUT 100 DAYS"


    https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1464222372161101825?s=20

    I presume then they would have to go through all the trials though?
  • glw said:

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
    Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,163

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    Brace. Lockdown


    "Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), earlier raised the prospect of lockdown curbs being reintroduced, warning that people must be braced for a 'change in restrictions' if the variant spreads to the UK."

    It is of course going to spread to the UK, it already has, for sure. So they are saying: Here Comes Lockdown

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10245459/Fears-Christmas-travel-ban-DELAY-new-Covid-strain.html

    Adam Finn can fuck off.
    Is that the same Adam Finn who didn't think we should have boosters or vaccinate kids?

    ****ing **** can **** right off.
    I'm not really disputing that, but I do always wonder about the question asked that produces the quote. I'm no expert on this, but I can imagine the following exchange if a DM journalist cornered me:

    DM: So, should we panic about Nu?
    Me: No, it's too early yet to see how significant it is. It may have some vaccine/prior infection antibody immunity, but we don't yet know whether that may also make it less severe. The important thing is if we have a variant which puts more people in hospital. This may, it may not.
    DM: So we can say you rule out any further restrictions then?
    Me: No, we need to be cautious. If this turns out to be a big problem in terms of hospitalisations then we have to be realistic, we may need some restrictions while vaccines are updated.

    DM story: "Dr Selebian [who we omit to mention knows fuck-all about this really, but his research looks like it's something to do with medicine, so hey-ho] said "we have to be realistic, we may need some restrictions"
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,632
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Could we booster dose everyone by Christmas? We've got all the necessary doses, I think.

    I can't think of anything else we could do that would help as much.

    Yes, I think there's somewhere around 30m doses of Pfizer and Moderna in the country plus what's due in the next couple of weeks. 30m gets us to 46m third doses, realistically we're only going to do about 40m anyway.
    We are currently doing boosters at an average of 0.6%+ of the total UK population over 12 per day. Say 4.5% a week. We are currently on 28.5%.....
    That rate could easily be doubled IMO, we just need to throw the doors open and reduce the eligibility limit to 4.5 months.
    ATM we are giving a bit over 350,000 3rd jabs a day, which approximately matches the 400,000 second jabs that we were giving a day 6 months ago in late may. however 5 months ago, that is late June, that was down to 160,000 second doses a day, meaning we will soon be able to do more that '2 days worth in a day' if that makes séance, and in so doing bring the gap down from 6 months to 5 months. looking at then numbers and assuming around 90% of people take the booster, I think could happen over the next 5 weeks ish, after that reducing to 4 months would be easy, if it was advisable.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

    I suspect that is the governments plan, and probably what's going to happen. I just wish they would announce it so we could know and plan accordingly

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited November 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
    Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
    Not if I moved to Scotland and therefore had a vote in Scotland and blocked it too, as Carnyx and I would then be the only residents of Scotland left too on this hypothesis as well as the only people left in the UK
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    glw said:

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
    Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
    And Holland, and Czechia....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited November 2021
    FPT (might be early FPT :smile: )
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The UK had the right to return asylum seekers to other EU countries as an EU member state. Then Boris Johnson campaigned to take back control. https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1464156778166423552

    How many were returned ?
    285.
    And the point, as I explained earlier, is that if any of those 285 were granted asylum in the country they were sent to they could immediately return to the UK as a matter of right. That is why so little use was made of it. It was an administrative procedure, not a restriction on substantive rights.

    Edit, it is also why I am more than a bit suspicious about the claims that many other EU countries grant asylum much more frequently than the UK. I dare say that they did but, before Brexit, where did they actually end up? Given our complete failure to monitor the flows of people to and from the EU which meant that we ended up giving out 6m rights to remain, we simply do not know the answer to that but I have my suspicions.

    The same draws that have these refugees in little boats, the English language, the ready availability of work, the non contributory benefits system, a sense of decency and tolerance, even Man United, god help us, all applied then too.
    A couple (ish) of the interesting points made in the debate - partly it has to be said to deflect blame the UK way, have been

    1 - Work is easier to get in the UK. Undocumented, as we do not have strong systems.
    2 - There is a larger pool of illegals in the UK. True, for example 2-3 x as large as France.
    3 - Insufficient returns / expulsions. Also true, and we have a charity industry trying to frustrate this process.

    If we are to get on top of this, a key plank of the solution will be appropriate ID cards.

    I suspect that as too often Boris will have his head up his own backside listening to his own bullshit to get ahead, however. Add that to the Foreign Office 'be neutral' syndrome, and I am not sure we will get far.


  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
    Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
    Not if I moved to Scotland and therefore had a vote in Scotland and blocked it too, as Carnyx and I would then be the only residents of Scotland left too on this hypothesis as well as the only people left in the UK
    You'll be moving in your own personal tank I suppose?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
    Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
    Not if I moved to Scotland and therefore had a vote in Scotland and blocked it too, as Carnyx and I would then be the only residents of Scotland left too on this hypothesis as well as the only people left in the UK
    You would be unable to get past the Dragons of Yulth (just outside Crookham) so no you wouldn't.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
    Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
    Not if I moved to Scotland and therefore had a vote in Scotland and blocked it too, as Carnyx and I would then be the only residents of Scotland left too on this hypothesis as well as the only people left in the UK
    What makes you think that your vote counts for more than that of someone else? What on earth makes you think that? Irrespective of the context - or the hypothesis - that is an absolutely outrageous statement. Which says something about you, one presumes.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    So I'm in my 3d hour on a tarmac at Schipol. While my flight from Jo'burg was somewhere over Chad, Europe went into variant panic; by the time we landed, we weren't allowed off the plane.
    They won't even let a catering truck bring us water.

    https://twitter.com/snolen/status/1464225397994840067
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,632

    Leon said:

    This is more cheering than Max's 9 months?

    "PFIZER SAYS IF VACCINE-ESCAPE VARIANT EMERGES, COS EXPECT TO DEVELOP, PRODUCE TAILOR-MADE VACCINE AGAINST THAT VARIANT IN ABOUT 100 DAYS"


    https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1464222372161101825?s=20

    I presume then they would have to go through all the trials though?
    Yes, Phifer think they can have have a new vaccine, based on a tweak in the vaccine they already have in 100 day, from sequencing the genome, to in to the first arm in 100 days.

    That would be developing the virus, running trials, getting approval starting manifacaring and destitution. all within 100 days.

    this streamlined proses, has been mapped out and would be with the co-operation of the regulators.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
    Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
    Not if I moved to Scotland and therefore had a vote in Scotland and blocked it too, as Carnyx and I would then be the only residents of Scotland left too on this hypothesis as well as the only people left in the UK
    You'll be moving in your own personal tank I suppose?
    A personal tank is a "tankette", iirc.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
    Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
    Not if I moved to Scotland and therefore had a vote in Scotland and blocked it too, as Carnyx and I would then be the only residents of Scotland left too on this hypothesis as well as the only people left in the UK
    You would be unable to get past the Dragons of Yulth (just outside Crookham) so no you wouldn't.
    One of you would be King, though, and could enact whatever he wanted. I do hope your monarchist principles will be unaffected if Carnyx turns out to be closer in line them you are.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    On necrophilia, and relationships with the dead.
    rcs1000 said:

    Mr. Boy, there's a world of difference between sexual orientation and kinks, which vary from "gosh, feet" all the way to "I want to literally carve my name into your back with a knife".

    People who are into stuff absolutely across the line (paedophilia, necrophilia etc) should be shamed to deter the odds on them grouping up with others and creating a support network for such behaviour, and to encourage them to seek help or just restrain themselves.

    Shaming someone for being into S&M is daft (and counterproductive if they're into humiliation), but some things are unacceptable and pretending otherwise is damned silly.

    Why is necrophilia 'absolutely across the line'? If I am willing to let my body (post death) be used for others amusement, why should that be prohibited?
    How do you see matters of consent wrt necrophilia?

    Would you require consent from relatives? Before death from the victim / recipient? Or do you consider that nobody owns a corpse, so you can do what you like with it, as you could with a clump of grass from the roadside?

    (Do we have laws about what you can do to the body of a dead animal / pet, or is that based on respecting the value of the relationship between the pet and the owner?)

    I was surprised at the vehemence of the reaction to the recent cases of abuse of bodies in morgues, and I could not tell quite who was doing the objecting - ordinary people, tabloid outrage buses, or some sort of establishment. Listening to the terminology of "abuse" and "victims" being used, and who it was being applied to, was quite an eye opener.

    But there is not very much clear philosophical thinking about our relationships with the dead.

    I have had a practice of going to visit the bodies of dead relatives for many years following a decision I made in my early 20s, but the general populace is still remarkably resistant to thinking about such questions.

    In a society where many are happy killing an unborn child/fetus up until the moment of birth I'd hope for a bit more clarity of thought.

  • glw said:

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
    Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
    I think they'd have noticed, wouldn't they? This variant (like alpha) shows up as different in the PCR tests.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    So I'm in my 3d hour on a tarmac at Schipol. While my flight from Jo'burg was somewhere over Chad, Europe went into variant panic; by the time we landed, we weren't allowed off the plane.
    They won't even let a catering truck bring us water.

    https://twitter.com/snolen/status/1464225397994840067

    I notice the screeching "hard-luck" stories already been plastered all over the place by the media. We are back to when the government takes decisive action is soooooooooo unfair, when they don't, why aren't you, lock us down.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Sturgeon: "too soon to say if it will lead to restrictions here"


    https://twitter.com/Political_AlanS/status/1464207222930616324?s=20


    That sounds to me like a statement which is designed to morph into "the time has come for restrictions here"
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
    Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
    Not if I moved to Scotland and therefore had a vote in Scotland and blocked it too, as Carnyx and I would then be the only residents of Scotland left too on this hypothesis as well as the only people left in the UK
    You'll be moving in your own personal tank I suppose?
    A personal tank is a "tankette", iirc.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAKoCR6Ttr0
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021

    glw said:

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
    Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
    I think they'd have noticed, wouldn't they? This variant (like alpha) shows up as different in the PCR tests.
    My understanding was sequencing and monitoring isn't very good in Europe and you need to know what you are looking for. In fact this SA variant was found by the UK. We are only hours into this and Belgium already confirming cases and where they came from. I expect we will be getting reports of it being everywhere shortly.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617

    glw said:

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
    Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
    And the Austrian, Belgian and Dutch outbreaks all appear to have taken off at around the same time, but have been even more dramatic.

    However, the likelihood of this having been caused by a super-variant that has, somehow, miraculously avoided doing any harm to the UK or Sweden, seems remote.

    It's likely the consequence of different approaches to pandemic management, coupled with variations in the timing of delivery of vaccinations to the elderly.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    This is more cheering than Max's 9 months?

    "PFIZER SAYS IF VACCINE-ESCAPE VARIANT EMERGES, COS EXPECT TO DEVELOP, PRODUCE TAILOR-MADE VACCINE AGAINST THAT VARIANT IN ABOUT 100 DAYS"


    https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1464222372161101825?s=20

    I presume then they would have to go through all the trials though?
    Yes, Phifer think they can have have a new vaccine, based on a tweak in the vaccine they already have in 100 day, from sequencing the genome, to in to the first arm in 100 days.

    That would be developing the virus, running trials, getting approval starting manifacaring and destitution. all within 100 days.

    this streamlined proses, has been mapped out and would be with the co-operation of the regulators.
    The year is 2030 and 98% of global stock market value is taken by two companies, Pfizer and Moderna.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572
    Leon said:

    Brace. Lockdown


    "Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), earlier raised the prospect of lockdown curbs being reintroduced, warning that people must be braced for a 'change in restrictions' if the variant spreads to the UK."

    It is of course going to spread to the UK, it already has, for sure. So they are saying: Here Comes Lockdown

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10245459/Fears-Christmas-travel-ban-DELAY-new-Covid-strain.html

    He doesn't know any more than we do about the actual data around Nu. He's is [email protected] who wanted to vaccinate the world rather than our teenagers and is partly responsible for our high case rates these last 4 months.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,632
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Brace. Lockdown


    "Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), earlier raised the prospect of lockdown curbs being reintroduced, warning that people must be braced for a 'change in restrictions' if the variant spreads to the UK."

    It is of course going to spread to the UK, it already has, for sure. So they are saying: Here Comes Lockdown

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10245459/Fears-Christmas-travel-ban-DELAY-new-Covid-strain.html

    That's just ridiculous. We don't even know what level of immune escape there is, if any. If there's none or it's limited then we really are in an "as you were" situation.

    As for reinfections, if SA hospitals start filling up then we may have reason to worry, so far this hasn't happened and this variant has been in circulation for at least 3 or 4 weeks, well past the time it would cause mass hospitalisations in the already immune from vaccines/infections.
    Also worth noting that this variant was first spotted in Botswana, but Botswana has not shown a big increase in cases in the last few days.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021
    Great shout, Carlotta for telling us about this guy. Perhaps because it is saying what people want to hear although he maintains it is what people need to hear.


    So, what data DO we have? From this extremely informative thread from it is likely we WILL NOT see Nu FULLY escape vaccine-elicited antibodies, and therefore likely little issues with severe disease. Which IS encouraging.

    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464235879837351946
  • glw said:

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
    Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
    I think they'd have noticed, wouldn't they? This variant (like alpha) shows up as different in the PCR tests.
    My understanding was sequencing and monitoring isn't very good in Europe and you need to know what you are looking for. In fact this SA variant was found by the UK.
    Yes, but you don't need to do full sequencing to notice this one. Germany may not be as hot on this as the UK is, but I don't think they'd have missed this if it really were a significant factor in their recent rise in cases.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    Here's the good news for my LISA :D

    Market Summary
    >
    Pfizer Inc.
    53.72 USD
    +3.02 (5.56%)today
  • Leon said:

    Interesting graph, mapping out Nu's alleged competitive advantage


    https://twitter.com/Drphilgood92/status/1464233371010310146?s=20

    IF this is right - and it has been cited by reliable sources, though of course we dunno yet - it looks like the Noo should completely supplant all other variants in 3 weeks -ie go from being 1% of cases to becoming 100% of cases (I'm not sure how lockdown would affect this, it might not have any affect with a virus this contagious)

    Three weeks. That is devilish quick. To illustrate, if it hits 1% next week it will peak before Christmas

    As Chris said on an earlier thread, at least this is going to be fast.

    6 followers.....

    So, let’s get a couple of things straight NO ONE knows if it is more transmissible at this point. Seeing “Nu is 500% more transmissible” with no data and maybe a bad interpretation of a graph? Yeah, someone is yanking your chain. Also it is NOT a new virus, it is A VARIANT of the..same SARS-COV-2 virus we have been dealing with for almost 2 years now. Stop that. Give me a break. To those saying it is “outcompeting” Delta. Important thing to keep in mind: there hasn’t been much Delta to displace or “outcompete.” Until last week, South Africa was at its..lowest incidence rate since the beginning of the pandemic. In other words, the low incidence of Delta in South Africa kinda means that Nu becoming dominant is weaker evidence of it “outcompeting” it when there really wasn’t much to outcompete so to speak.

    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464234988191289351?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited November 2021
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
    Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
    Not if I moved to Scotland and therefore had a vote in Scotland and blocked it too, as Carnyx and I would then be the only residents of Scotland left too on this hypothesis as well as the only people left in the UK
    What makes you think that your vote counts for more than that of someone else? What on earth makes you think that? Irrespective of the context - or the hypothesis - that is an absolutely outrageous statement. Which says something about you, one presumes.
    If you and I both were the only residents of Scotland left, then by definition the Unionists would have 50% of the seats and the SNP and Greens would no longer have a majority for indyref2 even in Holyrood. Even if there was an indyref2 No would get 50%, so would block any change to the status quo
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    pigeon said:

    glw said:

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
    Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
    And the Austrian, Belgian and Dutch outbreaks all appear to have taken off at around the same time, but have been even more dramatic.

    However, the likelihood of this having been caused by a super-variant that has, somehow, miraculously avoided doing any harm to the UK or Sweden, seems remote.

    It's likely the consequence of different approaches to pandemic management, coupled with variations in the timing of delivery of vaccinations to the elderly.
    Maybe, maybe not. We have consistently seen waves hit at different times, even within the UK. It is all about seeding and the density of that seeding / the super spreader e.g. we had the case in the UK of the guy who got it on holiday, went to the pub on his return, 200 infected in one night just from him.

    I doubt the uptick is solely this new variant (its UK coming out of lockdown earlier + booster shots being much wider uptake), but I wouldn't be surprised to find out it is much more widespread than we currently think and it is behind some of this ramp up.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021

    Leon said:

    Brace. Lockdown


    "Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), earlier raised the prospect of lockdown curbs being reintroduced, warning that people must be braced for a 'change in restrictions' if the variant spreads to the UK."

    It is of course going to spread to the UK, it already has, for sure. So they are saying: Here Comes Lockdown

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10245459/Fears-Christmas-travel-ban-DELAY-new-Covid-strain.html

    He doesn't know any more than we do about the actual data around Nu. He's is [email protected] who wanted to vaccinate the world rather than our teenagers and is partly responsible for our high case rates these last 4 months.
    Well of course had we vaccinated the world (who are at high risk) instead of our teenagers (low risk), then perhaps this variant would have been stopped in its tracks.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,163
    edited November 2021
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
    Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
    Not if I moved to Scotland and therefore had a vote in Scotland and blocked it too, as Carnyx and I would then be the only residents of Scotland left too on this hypothesis as well as the only people left in the UK
    In that situation, I can't help imagining you'd go all Perry Como and being singing to Carnyx "If you were the only Nat in the world and I were the only Yoon" and bury your differences. Or work your way through the country's abandoned whisky stocks. Or both.

    Best use of time (drinking whisky) in that scenario, I'd have thought.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    MattW said:

    FPT (might be early FPT :smile: )

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The UK had the right to return asylum seekers to other EU countries as an EU member state. Then Boris Johnson campaigned to take back control. https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1464156778166423552

    How many were returned ?
    285.
    And the point, as I explained earlier, is that if any of those 285 were granted asylum in the country they were sent to they could immediately return to the UK as a matter of right. That is why so little use was made of it. It was an administrative procedure, not a restriction on substantive rights.

    Edit, it is also why I am more than a bit suspicious about the claims that many other EU countries grant asylum much more frequently than the UK. I dare say that they did but, before Brexit, where did they actually end up? Given our complete failure to monitor the flows of people to and from the EU which meant that we ended up giving out 6m rights to remain, we simply do not know the answer to that but I have my suspicions.

    The same draws that have these refugees in little boats, the English language, the ready availability of work, the non contributory benefits system, a sense of decency and tolerance, even Man United, god help us, all applied then too.
    A couple (ish) of the interesting points made in the debate - partly it has to be said to deflect blame the UK way, have been

    1 - Work is easier to get in the UK. Undocumented, as we do not have strong systems.
    2 - There is a larger pool of illegals in the UK. True, for example 2-3 x as large as France.
    3 - Insufficient returns / expulsions. Also true, and we have a charity industry trying to frustrate this process.

    If we are to get on top of this, a key plank of the solution will be appropriate ID cards.

    I suspect that as too often Boris will have his head up his own backside listening to his own bullshit to get ahead, however. Add that to the Foreign Office 'be neutral' syndrome, and I am not sure we will get far.


    Not really a key component of this will be to stop the use of illegal labour.

    Unlimited fines (starting at £25,000 not stopping at £3,000) with incentives for reporting (right to remain if reported by an illegal immigrant) would reduce illegal working very quickly.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    This is more cheering than Max's 9 months?

    "PFIZER SAYS IF VACCINE-ESCAPE VARIANT EMERGES, COS EXPECT TO DEVELOP, PRODUCE TAILOR-MADE VACCINE AGAINST THAT VARIANT IN ABOUT 100 DAYS"


    https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1464222372161101825?s=20

    That's really good news, though development of the vaccine isn't the difficult bit, it's getting trials done and approvals/EUAs from the MHRA/FDA. That adds at least a few months and then there will be a few months to actually give it to people. My nine month estimate included the latter two, I suspect Pfizer are talking about design to first doses rolling off the production line.
    I believe fewer trials will be needed for a tweaked version than the initial process.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
    Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
    Not if I moved to Scotland and therefore had a vote in Scotland and blocked it too, as Carnyx and I would then be the only residents of Scotland left too on this hypothesis as well as the only people left in the UK
    You'll be moving in your own personal tank I suppose?
    A personal tank is a "tankette", iirc.
    If it is 1 or 2 person.

    I think our friend expects not to be on his own, hence my suggestion of

    image

  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    glw said:

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
    Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
    I think they'd have noticed, wouldn't they? This variant (like alpha) shows up as different in the PCR tests.
    It shows up different in one particular kind of PCR Test, apparently. I don't know if these are all the same worldwide? Probably they are

    The surge in Europe might of course be a mix of these things. The Delta and the Nunu, one masking the other?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,656
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Brace. Lockdown


    "Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), earlier raised the prospect of lockdown curbs being reintroduced, warning that people must be braced for a 'change in restrictions' if the variant spreads to the UK."

    It is of course going to spread to the UK, it already has, for sure. So they are saying: Here Comes Lockdown

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10245459/Fears-Christmas-travel-ban-DELAY-new-Covid-strain.html

    He doesn't know any more than we do about the actual data around Nu. He's is [email protected] who wanted to vaccinate the world rather than our teenagers and is partly responsible for our high case rates these last 4 months.
    Well of course had we vaccinated the world (who are at high risk) instead of our teenagers (low risk), then perhaps this variant would have been stopped in its tracks.
    A drop in the ocean when you compare the two populations. And I'm hoping that we would have prioritised more needy countries than South Africa.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 709

    Scott_xP said:

    So I'm in my 3d hour on a tarmac at Schipol. While my flight from Jo'burg was somewhere over Chad, Europe went into variant panic; by the time we landed, we weren't allowed off the plane.
    They won't even let a catering truck bring us water.

    https://twitter.com/snolen/status/1464225397994840067

    I notice the screeching "hard-luck" stories already been plastered all over the place by the media. We are back to when the government takes decisive action is soooooooooo unfair, when they don't, why aren't you, lock us down.
    BBC web/radio had loads of them already. Christmas ruined etc.

    People are selfish. I have an operation before Christmas which will have me out of action for a few weeks so am distinctly unbothered by Armageddon round 3 (unless said procedure is cancelled), so I can hardly talk.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,118
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    FPT (might be early FPT :smile: )

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The UK had the right to return asylum seekers to other EU countries as an EU member state. Then Boris Johnson campaigned to take back control. https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1464156778166423552

    How many were returned ?
    285.
    And the point, as I explained earlier, is that if any of those 285 were granted asylum in the country they were sent to they could immediately return to the UK as a matter of right. That is why so little use was made of it. It was an administrative procedure, not a restriction on substantive rights.

    Edit, it is also why I am more than a bit suspicious about the claims that many other EU countries grant asylum much more frequently than the UK. I dare say that they did but, before Brexit, where did they actually end up? Given our complete failure to monitor the flows of people to and from the EU which meant that we ended up giving out 6m rights to remain, we simply do not know the answer to that but I have my suspicions.

    The same draws that have these refugees in little boats, the English language, the ready availability of work, the non contributory benefits system, a sense of decency and tolerance, even Man United, god help us, all applied then too.
    A couple (ish) of the interesting points made in the debate - partly it has to be said to deflect blame the UK way, have been

    1 - Work is easier to get in the UK. Undocumented, as we do not have strong systems.
    2 - There is a larger pool of illegals in the UK. True, for example 2-3 x as large as France.
    3 - Insufficient returns / expulsions. Also true, and we have a charity industry trying to frustrate this process.

    If we are to get on top of this, a key plank of the solution will be appropriate ID cards.

    I suspect that as too often Boris will have his head up his own backside listening to his own bullshit to get ahead, however. Add that to the Foreign Office 'be neutral' syndrome, and I am not sure we will get far.


    Not really a key component of this will be to stop the use of illegal labour.

    Unlimited fines (starting at £25,000 not stopping at £3,000) with incentives for reporting (right to remain if reported by an illegal immigrant) would reduce illegal working very quickly.
    It would probably shift them from working for Deliveroo or Uber to robbery or drug smuggling.

    There's no simple solution to this problem, sadly.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    Interesting graph, mapping out Nu's alleged competitive advantage


    https://twitter.com/Drphilgood92/status/1464233371010310146?s=20

    IF this is right - and it has been cited by reliable sources, though of course we dunno yet - it looks like the Noo should completely supplant all other variants in 3 weeks -ie go from being 1% of cases to becoming 100% of cases (I'm not sure how lockdown would affect this, it might not have any affect with a virus this contagious)

    Three weeks. That is devilish quick. To illustrate, if it hits 1% next week it will peak before Christmas

    As Chris said on an earlier thread, at least this is going to be fast.

    6 followers.....

    So, let’s get a couple of things straight NO ONE knows if it is more transmissible at this point. Seeing “Nu is 500% more transmissible” with no data and maybe a bad interpretation of a graph? Yeah, someone is yanking your chain. Also it is NOT a new virus, it is A VARIANT of the..same SARS-COV-2 virus we have been dealing with for almost 2 years now. Stop that. Give me a break. To those saying it is “outcompeting” Delta. Important thing to keep in mind: there hasn’t been much Delta to displace or “outcompete.” Until last week, South Africa was at its..lowest incidence rate since the beginning of the pandemic. In other words, the low incidence of Delta in South Africa kinda means that Nu becoming dominant is weaker evidence of it “outcompeting” it when there really wasn’t much to outcompete so to speak.

    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464234988191289351?s=20
    I find sailorooscout a bit too keen to give good news, but it is important to have balance

    Here is another scientist with another measured thread:


    https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1464226057045876754?s=20

    TL;DR: Yes, this is concerning, yes there is reason to be fearful, but no, don't abandon hope all ye who enter here, not just yet
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    MattW said:

    On necrophilia, and relationships with the dead.

    rcs1000 said:

    Mr. Boy, there's a world of difference between sexual orientation and kinks, which vary from "gosh, feet" all the way to "I want to literally carve my name into your back with a knife".

    People who are into stuff absolutely across the line (paedophilia, necrophilia etc) should be shamed to deter the odds on them grouping up with others and creating a support network for such behaviour, and to encourage them to seek help or just restrain themselves.

    Shaming someone for being into S&M is daft (and counterproductive if they're into humiliation), but some things are unacceptable and pretending otherwise is damned silly.

    Why is necrophilia 'absolutely across the line'? If I am willing to let my body (post death) be used for others amusement, why should that be prohibited?
    How do you see matters of consent wrt necrophilia?

    Would you require consent from relatives? Before death from the victim / recipient? Or do you consider that nobody owns a corpse, so you can do what you like with it, as you could with a clump of grass from the roadside?

    (Do we have laws about what you can do to the body of a dead animal / pet, or is that based on respecting the value of the relationship between the pet and the owner?)

    I was surprised at the vehemence of the reaction to the recent cases of abuse of bodies in morgues, and I could not tell quite who was doing the objecting - ordinary people, tabloid outrage buses, or some sort of establishment. Listening to the terminology of "abuse" and "victims" being used, and who it was being applied to, was quite an eye opener.

    But there is not very much clear philosophical thinking about our relationships with the dead.

    I have had a practice of going to visit the bodies of dead relatives for many years following a decision I made in my early 20s, but the general populace is still remarkably resistant to thinking about such questions.

    In a society where many are happy killing an unborn child/fetus up until the moment of birth I'd hope for a bit more clarity of thought.

    I'm more familiar with the history of the use of bodies for dissection, which raises some of the wider issues. A few of my forebears would have been dug up and dissected on statistical chance given their residences in or near Edinburgh. In Scotland (not sure about England) it was not possible to own a corpse (presuimably cos the owner was no longer there to claim it, so to speak). So there was no crime of theft of a body from a grave. But the grave clothes were thievable so careful resurrectionists stipped the body on the spot and left the clothes behind.

    This was superseded by legakl changes which directed that unclaimed bodies in the workhouse, etc., went to the medics. 1832, I think? The nasty trick was that 'claim' meant 'claim a body because I can afford to pay for a fguneral' - so basically the poor, whose rewlatives were also poor, ended up getting what was seen as a criminal's fate. And hence the working class obsession wityh saving enough money for a funeral. (Some years ago I was very surprised to find that a very elderly honorary granny of mine, who had been in a home for years and who left everything to me, nevertheless had just enough to pay her funeral. I'd have been happy to pay it myself!)

    The books and papers by Ruth Richardson are particulary good. Though I don't think they go into necrophilia.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
    Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
    Not if I moved to Scotland and therefore had a vote in Scotland and blocked it too, as Carnyx and I would then be the only residents of Scotland left too on this hypothesis as well as the only people left in the UK
    You'll be moving in your own personal tank I suppose?
    A personal tank is a "tankette", iirc.
    If it is 1 or 2 person.

    I think our friend expects not to be on his own, hence my suggestion of

    image

    He'd be mortified to be in one of those, being a full-blown Erastian.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    glw said:

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
    Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
    I think they'd have noticed, wouldn't they? This variant (like alpha) shows up as different in the PCR tests.
    They have to be looking for it in the first place.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617

    pigeon said:

    glw said:

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
    Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
    And the Austrian, Belgian and Dutch outbreaks all appear to have taken off at around the same time, but have been even more dramatic.

    However, the likelihood of this having been caused by a super-variant that has, somehow, miraculously avoided doing any harm to the UK or Sweden, seems remote.

    It's likely the consequence of different approaches to pandemic management, coupled with variations in the timing of delivery of vaccinations to the elderly.
    Maybe, maybe not. We have consistently seen waves hit at different times, even within the UK. It is all about seeding and the density of that seeding / the super spreader.
    Sorry, but the inference that a superplague has ravaged a large chunk of Europe (including Denmark, which has a very strong analytical capability and would've already seen the variant if it had become established,) then teleported directly to Ireland without scything through Britain along the way, is piffle.

    I think we can all be at least 99.9975% certain that Austria is not back in lockdown because a tour party from Salzburg returned from South Africa a few weeks ago harbouring mutant plague.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    edited November 2021
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Brace. Lockdown


    "Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), earlier raised the prospect of lockdown curbs being reintroduced, warning that people must be braced for a 'change in restrictions' if the variant spreads to the UK."

    It is of course going to spread to the UK, it already has, for sure. So they are saying: Here Comes Lockdown

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10245459/Fears-Christmas-travel-ban-DELAY-new-Covid-strain.html

    He doesn't know any more than we do about the actual data around Nu. He's is [email protected] who wanted to vaccinate the world rather than our teenagers and is partly responsible for our high case rates these last 4 months.
    Well of course had we vaccinated the world (who are at high risk) instead of our teenagers (low risk), then perhaps this variant would have been stopped in its tracks.
    Except that this is bollocks. South Africa has had plenty of vaccines. It sold off its AZ because its government is stupid, it can't get jabs into arms because too many of the people believe antivax nonsense

    There is no lack of vax in SA

    "The psychology of vaccine hesitancy and refusal - Once South Africa secured adequate amounts of vaccines, we were faced with a baffling dilemma. Not everyone wanted to take it"

    https://twitter.com/mailandguardian/status/1449268983778185219?s=20


    It's not Britain's fault, nor the fault of the rich world, if South Africans think Bill Gates is trying to poison them
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Brace. Lockdown


    "Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), earlier raised the prospect of lockdown curbs being reintroduced, warning that people must be braced for a 'change in restrictions' if the variant spreads to the UK."

    It is of course going to spread to the UK, it already has, for sure. So they are saying: Here Comes Lockdown

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10245459/Fears-Christmas-travel-ban-DELAY-new-Covid-strain.html

    He doesn't know any more than we do about the actual data around Nu. He's is [email protected] who wanted to vaccinate the world rather than our teenagers and is partly responsible for our high case rates these last 4 months.
    Well of course had we vaccinated the world (who are at high risk) instead of our teenagers (low risk), then perhaps this variant would have been stopped in its tracks.
    South Africa has made a horlicks of it's vax program they were handing BACK AZ vaccines !
    And if you look at global vax production there is plenty to head into the arms of the likes of Malawi, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Botswana.
    It's simply not a case of western nations hogging all the vaccines.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,779
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    glw said:

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
    Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
    And the Austrian, Belgian and Dutch outbreaks all appear to have taken off at around the same time, but have been even more dramatic.

    However, the likelihood of this having been caused by a super-variant that has, somehow, miraculously avoided doing any harm to the UK or Sweden, seems remote.

    It's likely the consequence of different approaches to pandemic management, coupled with variations in the timing of delivery of vaccinations to the elderly.
    Maybe, maybe not. We have consistently seen waves hit at different times, even within the UK. It is all about seeding and the density of that seeding / the super spreader.
    Sorry, but the inference that a superplague has ravaged a large chunk of Europe (including Denmark, which has a very strong analytical capability and would've already seen the variant if it had become established,) then teleported directly to Ireland without scything through Britain along the way, is piffle.

    I think we can all be at least 99.9975% certain that Austria is not back in lockdown because a tour party from Salzburg returned from South Africa a few weeks ago harbouring mutant plague.
    Qute. The rise in Austrian numbers had been noticeable since early October.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    edited November 2021
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    glw said:

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
    Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
    And the Austrian, Belgian and Dutch outbreaks all appear to have taken off at around the same time, but have been even more dramatic.

    However, the likelihood of this having been caused by a super-variant that has, somehow, miraculously avoided doing any harm to the UK or Sweden, seems remote.

    It's likely the consequence of different approaches to pandemic management, coupled with variations in the timing of delivery of vaccinations to the elderly.
    Maybe, maybe not. We have consistently seen waves hit at different times, even within the UK. It is all about seeding and the density of that seeding / the super spreader.
    Sorry, but the inference that a superplague has ravaged a large chunk of Europe (including Denmark, which has a very strong analytical capability and would've already seen the variant if it had become established,) then teleported directly to Ireland without scything through Britain along the way, is piffle.

    I think we can all be at least 99.9975% certain that Austria is not back in lockdown because a tour party from Salzburg returned from South Africa a few weeks ago harbouring mutant plague.
    It's unlikely, but it is not 99.9975% unlikely

    As Max says, was anyone in Europe looking for this anomaly, in the special type of PCR test that picks up the Nu? How do we know?

    We've only been truly aware of this variant for about 24 hours, it is ridiculous. And already we have 4 cases in Israel, 2 in Belgium

    There may be some Nunu at work already, in Europe, indeed there must be
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,823
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
    I know this is a silly conversation but:

    Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?

    As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?

    Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?

    If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.

    Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
  • TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Brace. Lockdown


    "Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), earlier raised the prospect of lockdown curbs being reintroduced, warning that people must be braced for a 'change in restrictions' if the variant spreads to the UK."

    It is of course going to spread to the UK, it already has, for sure. So they are saying: Here Comes Lockdown

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10245459/Fears-Christmas-travel-ban-DELAY-new-Covid-strain.html

    He doesn't know any more than we do about the actual data around Nu. He's is [email protected] who wanted to vaccinate the world rather than our teenagers and is partly responsible for our high case rates these last 4 months.
    Well of course had we vaccinated the world (who are at high risk) instead of our teenagers (low risk), then perhaps this variant would have been stopped in its tracks.
    SA suffers from many disadvantages - including a substantial population living with HIV and a compromised immune system - along with vaccine scepticism and low uptake. As with the "Kent" variant it is likely this one emerged after a long battle within a single host.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    Fishing said:

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    FPT (might be early FPT :smile: )

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The UK had the right to return asylum seekers to other EU countries as an EU member state. Then Boris Johnson campaigned to take back control. https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1464156778166423552

    How many were returned ?
    285.
    And the point, as I explained earlier, is that if any of those 285 were granted asylum in the country they were sent to they could immediately return to the UK as a matter of right. That is why so little use was made of it. It was an administrative procedure, not a restriction on substantive rights.

    Edit, it is also why I am more than a bit suspicious about the claims that many other EU countries grant asylum much more frequently than the UK. I dare say that they did but, before Brexit, where did they actually end up? Given our complete failure to monitor the flows of people to and from the EU which meant that we ended up giving out 6m rights to remain, we simply do not know the answer to that but I have my suspicions.

    The same draws that have these refugees in little boats, the English language, the ready availability of work, the non contributory benefits system, a sense of decency and tolerance, even Man United, god help us, all applied then too.
    A couple (ish) of the interesting points made in the debate - partly it has to be said to deflect blame the UK way, have been

    1 - Work is easier to get in the UK. Undocumented, as we do not have strong systems.
    2 - There is a larger pool of illegals in the UK. True, for example 2-3 x as large as France.
    3 - Insufficient returns / expulsions. Also true, and we have a charity industry trying to frustrate this process.

    If we are to get on top of this, a key plank of the solution will be appropriate ID cards.

    I suspect that as too often Boris will have his head up his own backside listening to his own bullshit to get ahead, however. Add that to the Foreign Office 'be neutral' syndrome, and I am not sure we will get far.


    Not really a key component of this will be to stop the use of illegal labour.

    Unlimited fines (starting at £25,000 not stopping at £3,000) with incentives for reporting (right to remain if reported by an illegal immigrant) would reduce illegal working very quickly.
    It would probably shift them from working for Deliveroo or Uber to robbery or drug smuggling.

    There's no simple solution to this problem, sadly.
    My point 4 would be about different processes of regularisation.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
    Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
    Not if I moved to Scotland and therefore had a vote in Scotland and blocked it too, as Carnyx and I would then be the only residents of Scotland left too on this hypothesis as well as the only people left in the UK
    You'll be moving in your own personal tank I suppose?
    A personal tank is a "tankette", iirc.
    If it is 1 or 2 person.

    I think our friend expects not to be on his own, hence my suggestion of

    image

    He'd be mortified to be in one of those, being a full-blown Erastian.
    Which is part of the... er.... benefit of selecting it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    On topic. The bet isn't that interesting imo and in any case we've surely well & truly nailed the topic of Sindy by now. It goes thus:

    The Nats are demanding a Vote but they don't really want one because they know they'd lose and the dream would die. They also don't want one because they fear they might win and they're blissfully happy riding the status quo gravy train.

    Nevertheless, despite all of this 'the Nats deep down not wanting a Vote business', the problem is they've just gone and won a Scottish election with holding a Vote as their key policy. But no, it's not a problem as it turns out! - "Boris" can rightly refuse a Vote because winning a Scottish election with a Vote as the key policy doesn't constitute any sort of mandate. The only mandate that counts is his one. Phew. Relief or what. Everybody happy.

    He also mustn't grant a Vote because the Scots had one in 2014 and if he grants one now it sets a bad precedent and the Nats, when they lose, will be back demanding another Vote almost straightaway. That's what they're like, those Nats.

    Although of course when they do come back agitating for a Vote again it'll be obvious - again - that they still won't want a Vote because they know for a fact they'd lose and the dream would die and (yep) they fear they'd win and they are blissfully happy riding that status quo gravy train.

    So there we go. Sindy = much ado about nothing.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited November 2021
    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
    Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
    Not if I moved to Scotland and therefore had a vote in Scotland and blocked it too, as Carnyx and I would then be the only residents of Scotland left too on this hypothesis as well as the only people left in the UK
    You'll be moving in your own personal tank I suppose?
    A personal tank is a "tankette", iirc.
    If it is 1 or 2 person.

    I think our friend expects not to be on his own, hence my suggestion of

    image

    He'd be mortified to be in one of those, being a full-blown Erastian.
    A personal tank to me is smaller:



    Or a Kit-Tank:



  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 1,167
    The header hasn't exactly set the thread alive has it? Much like in Scotland where just about no-one is interested either.

    HYUFD's personal tank suggestions are good though. Surely a Centurion is the way to go though, with all the historic references to the two walls - Hadrian's and Antonine - to keep the border enthusiasts content.
  • Any country that has restrictions twelve months after vaccines became available has failed. Dismally.

    If there's any restrictions reintroduced into England (and I don't mean the silly Smarkets market) then the 1922 needs to give the PM the revolver and whiskey.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike

    Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
    So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
    Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
    Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
    Not if I moved to Scotland and therefore had a vote in Scotland and blocked it too, as Carnyx and I would then be the only residents of Scotland left too on this hypothesis as well as the only people left in the UK
    You'll be moving in your own personal tank I suppose?
    A personal tank is a "tankette", iirc.
    If it is 1 or 2 person.

    I think our friend expects not to be on his own, hence my suggestion of

    image

    He'd be mortified to be in one of those, being a full-blown Erastian.
    A personal tank to me is smaller:


    Yep, CV33 or CV35, can't remember which, basically an Italian revision of one of the Carden-Lloyd family - as in that video I linked to earlier.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    glw said:

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
    Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
    And the Austrian, Belgian and Dutch outbreaks all appear to have taken off at around the same time, but have been even more dramatic.

    However, the likelihood of this having been caused by a super-variant that has, somehow, miraculously avoided doing any harm to the UK or Sweden, seems remote.

    It's likely the consequence of different approaches to pandemic management, coupled with variations in the timing of delivery of vaccinations to the elderly.
    Maybe, maybe not. We have consistently seen waves hit at different times, even within the UK. It is all about seeding and the density of that seeding / the super spreader.
    Sorry, but the inference that a superplague has ravaged a large chunk of Europe (including Denmark, which has a very strong analytical capability and would've already seen the variant if it had become established,) then teleported directly to Ireland without scything through Britain along the way, is piffle.

    I think we can all be at least 99.9975% certain that Austria is not back in lockdown because a tour party from Salzburg returned from South Africa a few weeks ago harbouring mutant plague.
    Northern Ireland coronavirus rates on a par with Germany, and cases in the rest of the UK have been rising. And as I say we have seen different regions spike at different times.

    I am not saying it is uniquely the new variant, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is helping super charge ontop of the different time of unlocking, the lack of boosters, etc. Germany cases in recent days has got nuts, and they have high vaccination rate (compared to Austria).
  • NEW: Pfizer says that if B.1.1.529 is found to be a “vaccine-escape variant”, a tailor-made vaccine to address it could be issued within 100 days.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1464244757803188230?s=20
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    The header hasn't exactly set the thread alive has it? Much like in Scotland where just about no-one is interested either.

    HYUFD's personal tank suggestions are good though. Surely a Centurion is the way to go though, with all the historic references to the two walls - Hadrian's and Antonine - to keep the border enthusiasts content.

    A Centurion is far too sensible.

    I like the suggestion that, at the end of the war, the British tank industry went "Oh, all right then". And created the Centurion on the basis that they'd run out of stupid designs.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited November 2021
    ..
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    glw said:

    What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!

    The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
    Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
    And the Austrian, Belgian and Dutch outbreaks all appear to have taken off at around the same time, but have been even more dramatic.

    However, the likelihood of this having been caused by a super-variant that has, somehow, miraculously avoided doing any harm to the UK or Sweden, seems remote.

    It's likely the consequence of different approaches to pandemic management, coupled with variations in the timing of delivery of vaccinations to the elderly.
    Maybe, maybe not. We have consistently seen waves hit at different times, even within the UK. It is all about seeding and the density of that seeding / the super spreader.
    Sorry, but the inference that a superplague has ravaged a large chunk of Europe (including Denmark, which has a very strong analytical capability and would've already seen the variant if it had become established,) then teleported directly to Ireland without scything through Britain along the way, is piffle.

    I think we can all be at least 99.9975% certain that Austria is not back in lockdown because a tour party from Salzburg returned from South Africa a few weeks ago harbouring mutant plague.
    Northern Ireland coronavirus rates on a par with Germany, and cases in the rest of the UK have been rising. And as I say we have seen different regions spike at different times.

    I am not saying it is uniquely the new variant, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is helping super charge ontop of the different time of unlocking, the lack of boosters, etc.
    I am sure that over the next 48 hours this variant will be discovered in most big European countries. Why would it only be in Belgium? Esp if it is this transmissible?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 1,167
    Leon said:

    I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet

    The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway

    It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike


    "THE SNP’s depute leader has claimed “the future of our planet” depends on Scottish independence."

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19744733.snp-deputy-keith-brown-claims-future-planet-depends-scottish-independence/

    Brightened my day.
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