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On Smarkets its a 55% chance that Scotland will vote for Independence – politicalbetting.com
On Smarkets its a 55% chance that Scotland will vote for Independence – politicalbetting.com
The former head of political research at the BBC, Dave Cowling, has issued his latest polling table showing the results of all the surveys on how Scottish voters think another independence referendum would go. The last such vote was in 2014 when it was rejected by a margin of about 10%.
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Hmm, no mention in the T&Cs of whether the referendum has been graciously permitted by HYUFD and his allies?
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
If no referendum is held by the end of 2022 this market will be void.
Which means all you are doing is lending SMarkets your money for 13 months.
"Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), earlier raised the prospect of lockdown curbs being reintroduced, warning that people must be braced for a 'change in restrictions' if the variant spreads to the UK."
It is of course going to spread to the UK, it already has, for sure. So they are saying: Here Comes Lockdown
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10245459/Fears-Christmas-travel-ban-DELAY-new-Covid-strain.html
IanB2 said: Leon said:At least the Nunu has given some real meaning to "Black Friday", rather than the specious imported American wank
Don’t knock it. I’ve ordered a trio of robot house cleaners at knock down prices that should clean the house while I sit posting to PB.
Where from? My Roomba is on its last legs....
https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464222680731820043?s=20
Scotland's SNP government cannot achieve independence from the UK without UK government consent either, as the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998.
Plus this market is out of date anyway given the fact No now leads in most indyref2 polls
Its a complete waste of money betting on either Yes or No and anyone wanting to shape an agenda can bet on this essentially risk-free to shape the odds how they want.
Even if an IndyRef2 happens this term there's no chance at all its happening next year. It'd be 2023 if there were to be one.
Also worth noting the amount traded on this market: £257 - that's basically nothing on an exchange.
Sorry Mike but this is a silly one as a thread header.
****ing **** can **** right off.
https://twitter.com/Drphilgood92/status/1464233371010310146?s=20
IF this is right - and it has been cited by reliable sources, though of course we dunno yet - it looks like the Noo should completely supplant all other variants in 3 weeks -ie go from being 1% of cases to becoming 100% of cases (I'm not sure how lockdown would affect this, it might not have any affect with a virus this contagious)
Three weeks. That is devilish quick. To illustrate, if it hits 1% next week it will peak before Christmas
As Chris said on an earlier thread, at least this is going to be fast.
Let’s talk about Nu (B.1.1.529) clear up some misconceptions, and talk about why it is unlikely it will evade vaccine-induced immunity.
https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464234680379662336?s=20
Good to see you, old boy
As for reinfections, if SA hospitals start filling up then we may have reason to worry, so far this hasn't happened and this variant has been in circulation for at least 3 or 4 weeks, well past the time it would cause mass hospitalisations in the already immune from vaccines/infections.
"PFIZER SAYS IF VACCINE-ESCAPE VARIANT EMERGES, COS EXPECT TO DEVELOP, PRODUCE TAILOR-MADE VACCINE AGAINST THAT VARIANT IN ABOUT 100 DAYS"
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1464222372161101825?s=20
DM: So, should we panic about Nu?
Me: No, it's too early yet to see how significant it is. It may have some vaccine/prior infection antibody immunity, but we don't yet know whether that may also make it less severe. The important thing is if we have a variant which puts more people in hospital. This may, it may not.
DM: So we can say you rule out any further restrictions then?
Me: No, we need to be cautious. If this turns out to be a big problem in terms of hospitalisations then we have to be realistic, we may need some restrictions while vaccines are updated.
DM story: "Dr Selebian [who we omit to mention knows fuck-all about this really, but his research looks like it's something to do with medicine, so hey-ho] said "we have to be realistic, we may need some restrictions"
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations
I suspect that is the governments plan, and probably what's going to happen. I just wish they would announce it so we could know and plan accordingly
1 - Work is easier to get in the UK. Undocumented, as we do not have strong systems.
2 - There is a larger pool of illegals in the UK. True, for example 2-3 x as large as France.
3 - Insufficient returns / expulsions. Also true, and we have a charity industry trying to frustrate this process.
If we are to get on top of this, a key plank of the solution will be appropriate ID cards.
I suspect that as too often Boris will have his head up his own backside listening to his own bullshit to get ahead, however. Add that to the Foreign Office 'be neutral' syndrome, and I am not sure we will get far.
They won't even let a catering truck bring us water.
https://twitter.com/snolen/status/1464225397994840067
That would be developing the virus, running trials, getting approval starting manifacaring and destitution. all within 100 days.
this streamlined proses, has been mapped out and would be with the co-operation of the regulators.
Would you require consent from relatives? Before death from the victim / recipient? Or do you consider that nobody owns a corpse, so you can do what you like with it, as you could with a clump of grass from the roadside?
(Do we have laws about what you can do to the body of a dead animal / pet, or is that based on respecting the value of the relationship between the pet and the owner?)
I was surprised at the vehemence of the reaction to the recent cases of abuse of bodies in morgues, and I could not tell quite who was doing the objecting - ordinary people, tabloid outrage buses, or some sort of establishment. Listening to the terminology of "abuse" and "victims" being used, and who it was being applied to, was quite an eye opener.
But there is not very much clear philosophical thinking about our relationships with the dead.
I have had a practice of going to visit the bodies of dead relatives for many years following a decision I made in my early 20s, but the general populace is still remarkably resistant to thinking about such questions.
In a society where many are happy killing an unborn child/fetus up until the moment of birth I'd hope for a bit more clarity of thought.
https://twitter.com/Political_AlanS/status/1464207222930616324?s=20
That sounds to me like a statement which is designed to morph into "the time has come for restrictions here"
However, the likelihood of this having been caused by a super-variant that has, somehow, miraculously avoided doing any harm to the UK or Sweden, seems remote.
It's likely the consequence of different approaches to pandemic management, coupled with variations in the timing of delivery of vaccinations to the elderly.
So, what data DO we have? From this extremely informative thread from it is likely we WILL NOT see Nu FULLY escape vaccine-elicited antibodies, and therefore likely little issues with severe disease. Which IS encouraging.
https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464235879837351946
Market Summary
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Pfizer Inc.
53.72 USD
+3.02 (5.56%)today
So, let’s get a couple of things straight NO ONE knows if it is more transmissible at this point. Seeing “Nu is 500% more transmissible” with no data and maybe a bad interpretation of a graph? Yeah, someone is yanking your chain. Also it is NOT a new virus, it is A VARIANT of the..same SARS-COV-2 virus we have been dealing with for almost 2 years now. Stop that. Give me a break. To those saying it is “outcompeting” Delta. Important thing to keep in mind: there hasn’t been much Delta to displace or “outcompete.” Until last week, South Africa was at its..lowest incidence rate since the beginning of the pandemic. In other words, the low incidence of Delta in South Africa kinda means that Nu becoming dominant is weaker evidence of it “outcompeting” it when there really wasn’t much to outcompete so to speak.
https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464234988191289351?s=20
I doubt the uptick is solely this new variant (its UK coming out of lockdown earlier + booster shots being much wider uptake), but I wouldn't be surprised to find out it is much more widespread than we currently think and it is behind some of this ramp up.
Best use of time (drinking whisky) in that scenario, I'd have thought.
Unlimited fines (starting at £25,000 not stopping at £3,000) with incentives for reporting (right to remain if reported by an illegal immigrant) would reduce illegal working very quickly.
I think our friend expects not to be on his own, hence my suggestion of
The surge in Europe might of course be a mix of these things. The Delta and the Nunu, one masking the other?
People are selfish. I have an operation before Christmas which will have me out of action for a few weeks so am distinctly unbothered by Armageddon round 3 (unless said procedure is cancelled), so I can hardly talk.
There's no simple solution to this problem, sadly.
Here is another scientist with another measured thread:
https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1464226057045876754?s=20
TL;DR: Yes, this is concerning, yes there is reason to be fearful, but no, don't abandon hope all ye who enter here, not just yet
This was superseded by legakl changes which directed that unclaimed bodies in the workhouse, etc., went to the medics. 1832, I think? The nasty trick was that 'claim' meant 'claim a body because I can afford to pay for a fguneral' - so basically the poor, whose rewlatives were also poor, ended up getting what was seen as a criminal's fate. And hence the working class obsession wityh saving enough money for a funeral. (Some years ago I was very surprised to find that a very elderly honorary granny of mine, who had been in a home for years and who left everything to me, nevertheless had just enough to pay her funeral. I'd have been happy to pay it myself!)
The books and papers by Ruth Richardson are particulary good. Though I don't think they go into necrophilia.
I think we can all be at least 99.9975% certain that Austria is not back in lockdown because a tour party from Salzburg returned from South Africa a few weeks ago harbouring mutant plague.
There is no lack of vax in SA
"The psychology of vaccine hesitancy and refusal - Once South Africa secured adequate amounts of vaccines, we were faced with a baffling dilemma. Not everyone wanted to take it"
https://twitter.com/mailandguardian/status/1449268983778185219?s=20
It's not Britain's fault, nor the fault of the rich world, if South Africans think Bill Gates is trying to poison them
And if you look at global vax production there is plenty to head into the arms of the likes of Malawi, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Botswana.
It's simply not a case of western nations hogging all the vaccines.
As Max says, was anyone in Europe looking for this anomaly, in the special type of PCR test that picks up the Nu? How do we know?
We've only been truly aware of this variant for about 24 hours, it is ridiculous. And already we have 4 cases in Israel, 2 in Belgium
There may be some Nunu at work already, in Europe, indeed there must be
Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?
As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?
Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?
If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.
Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
The Nats are demanding a Vote but they don't really want one because they know they'd lose and the dream would die. They also don't want one because they fear they might win and they're blissfully happy riding the status quo gravy train.
Nevertheless, despite all of this 'the Nats deep down not wanting a Vote business', the problem is they've just gone and won a Scottish election with holding a Vote as their key policy. But no, it's not a problem as it turns out! - "Boris" can rightly refuse a Vote because winning a Scottish election with a Vote as the key policy doesn't constitute any sort of mandate. The only mandate that counts is his one. Phew. Relief or what. Everybody happy.
He also mustn't grant a Vote because the Scots had one in 2014 and if he grants one now it sets a bad precedent and the Nats, when they lose, will be back demanding another Vote almost straightaway. That's what they're like, those Nats.
Although of course when they do come back agitating for a Vote again it'll be obvious - again - that they still won't want a Vote because they know for a fact they'd lose and the dream would die and (yep) they fear they'd win and they are blissfully happy riding that status quo gravy train.
So there we go. Sindy = much ado about nothing.
Or a Kit-Tank:
HYUFD's personal tank suggestions are good though. Surely a Centurion is the way to go though, with all the historic references to the two walls - Hadrian's and Antonine - to keep the border enthusiasts content.
If there's any restrictions reintroduced into England (and I don't mean the silly Smarkets market) then the 1922 needs to give the PM the revolver and whiskey.
I am not saying it is uniquely the new variant, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is helping super charge ontop of the different time of unlocking, the lack of boosters, etc. Germany cases in recent days has got nuts, and they have high vaccination rate (compared to Austria).
https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1464244757803188230?s=20
I like the suggestion that, at the end of the war, the British tank industry went "Oh, all right then". And created the Centurion on the basis that they'd run out of stupid designs.
"THE SNP’s depute leader has claimed “the future of our planet” depends on Scottish independence."
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19744733.snp-deputy-keith-brown-claims-future-planet-depends-scottish-independence/
Brightened my day.