[snip] There's also reason to believe that the AZ/AZ/X patients will do very well because of the broad based T-Cell immunity offered and the UK is pretty much alone in the west where 50% of our double jabbed are AZ, especially among the key over 70s cohort.
Yes, that's going to be a very interesting one to watch; we might be lucky on that one compared with countries that relied almost entirely on mRNA vaccines.
I also agree with your earlier points about bringing forward the third jabs. The case for a reduction of the interval to (say) 5 months was already strong, and it looks to me as though it's now overwhelming.
Let's hope Javid reads the riot act to the JCVI tonight and gets them to approve the decision. It would be very helpful to me and my wife as we both had our second doses at the end of June so could get our thirds in December.
Javid really should be issuing some sort of public health advisory. Wear a mask where you can, don't do so much daft stuff, work from home if there's an option, and if you're croaky, stay home.
Someone this morning said he looked like a rabbit in the headlights - I think that's right. He rather brushed aside Hancock's work (the actual work). I think Hancock was a far better Health minister though.
Are you mad? Hancock was completely incapable. Javid overnight forced through a red list decision. With Hancock they gave days of notice each time. He also forced through vaccines for 12-15 year olds and a very, very wide booster programme. Aiui he laid down the law to the JCVI about their remit wrt giving vaccines away and told them to get on with it.
Mad? Don't think so, but you can be the judge.
Hancock was completely on the case in my view. Apart of course from where he was otherwise engaged.
Javid just made a noise. I'd prefer Hancock in charge of health, and I'd much prefer to see Hunt at the helm.
Javid really should be issuing some sort of public health advisory. Wear a mask where you can, don't do so much daft stuff, work from home if there's an option, and if you're croaky, stay home.
Someone this morning said he looked like a rabbit in the headlights - I think that's right. He rather brushed aside Hancock's work (the actual work). I think Hancock was a far better Health minister though.
Javid was the one who told JCVI to take a shit or get off the pot.
Otherwise we wold still be waiting for an answer on boosters.
I'm not a fan.
He’s a bit thick, but considerably better than Hancock.
Well because he gave them a kick, we have the booster program running.
And when the "professionals" were being dilatory about it, he gave them a further kick by handing responsibility for the booster program back to the people who ran the original vaccination program.
I love the observation on the packet: "delicious with cheese and wine". Indeed they are, indeed they are.
Not a fan of the original bath olivers, but you can sometimes find them chocolate coated. Cost a fortune, but worth it
I thought they had stopped making them (the originals and presumably the chocolate-coated ones).
Still on the Waitrose website.
Yes. Google to the rescue. They apparently did stop, or pause making them but they were brought back after an outcry, marches on Downing Street, flag burning, etc. Or rather a polite letter to United Biscuits.
We could be, but aren't yet. I think what's really important to remember is that diluted vaccine efficacy doesn't necessarily mean an increase in hospitalisations and the UK has done almost 17m third doses covering almost all of the key 70+ cohort most likely to get severely ill from it. For example, Beta reduced overall VE for two doses of AZ to 30% but it still showed an 85% reduction in hospitalisations, which is pretty significant. We may end up talking about a reduction from 99% efficacy against severe symptoms to 95% in the end for the triple dosed, which is an increase but maybe not as bad as we think.
There's also reason to believe that the AZ/AZ/X patients will do very well because of the broad based T-Cell immunity offered and the UK is pretty much alone in the west where 50% of our double jabbed are AZ, especially among the key over 70s cohort.
Mrs Stodge and I are due our booster vaccinations tomorrow.
Obviously, this new variant is a cause of concern and has spooked the financial markets accordingly. As you say, unless there is clear evidence the current vaccination regimen is ineffective, I'm not going to get too concerned.
It will be interesting to see how the efficacy of the triple vaccination performs over time especially as the new variant will doubtless gain traction worldwide.
I suspect we might be looking at fourth vaccinations in April-May?
Anyone notice the local by-elections last night? Huge swings to the Tories in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Nuneaton, seats Labour needs to win to get a majority.
Anyone notice the local by-elections last night? Huge swings to the Tories in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Nuneaton, seats Labour needs to win to get a majority.
Apparently its all down to local issues and nothing to worry about for Labour. They have only been in opposition to 12 years, swings to the governing party are normal!!
[snip] There's also reason to believe that the AZ/AZ/X patients will do very well because of the broad based T-Cell immunity offered and the UK is pretty much alone in the west where 50% of our double jabbed are AZ, especially among the key over 70s cohort.
Yes, that's going to be a very interesting one to watch; we might be lucky on that one compared with countries that relied almost entirely on mRNA vaccines.
I also agree with your earlier points about bringing forward the third jabs. The case for a reduction of the interval to (say) 5 months was already strong, and it looks to me as though it's now overwhelming.
We should have mixed and matched, especially the booster.
If there is one thing I am going to tell you today it is to IGNORE the media and the clickbait headlines on this new variant. There is NO plausible scenario this will take us back to square one and there is a lot of misinformation currently circulating.
Yes, worth saying. But also worth saying that 'back to square 1' is at the catastrophic end of possibilities. For me, the bad realistic one is that Nu is highly transmissible AND has a high hospitalization/death effect AND evades the vaccines to a degree that means a new vaccine has to be made and rolled out. Kind of a 'back to square 2 or 3' scenario. But I really hope not.
Yes, that's the Reasonable Worst Case Scenario, and as Rule 1 of Covid unfortunately tells us, that is generally what happens (with one huge exception: vaccines, there we got the Reasonable Best Case Scenario - effective jabs within a year)
Chill Winston. To name two. The reasonable worst case fatality ratio was far higher than it’s turned out to be. There was a brief period in April 2020 when it looked like the free pass covid generally gives to kids was about to be revoked.
Ya sure?
Various authorities say that Covid has now killed 10-20 million people, worldwide (official figure is 5m but it is clearly nonsense). And a few million more will piss on their chips before we're done
If you'd asked folk at the outset of Covid how they felt about 20 million dying around the world, and maybe 200,000 in the UK, they would have filed that under "reasonable worst case scenario" if not "get tae fuck, madman"
I remember the incredulous expression of the Channel 4 News guy when he interviewed Neil Ferguson, as he asked Ferguson how many might die if we don't do lockdowns and stuff. Ferguson said, very carefully, "it could be 500,000, that's a reasonable worse case scenario"
The C4 dude basically laughed in disbelief. Yet Ferguson was right. 500,000 could easily have died without mitigations
Javid really should be issuing some sort of public health advisory. Wear a mask where you can, don't do so much daft stuff, work from home if there's an option, and if you're croaky, stay home.
Someone this morning said he looked like a rabbit in the headlights - I think that's right. He rather brushed aside Hancock's work (the actual work). I think Hancock was a far better Health minister though.
Are you mad? Hancock was completely incapable. Javid overnight forced through a red list decision. With Hancock they gave days of notice each time. He also forced through vaccines for 12-15 year olds and a very, very wide booster programme. Aiui he laid down the law to the JCVI about their remit wrt giving vaccines away and told them to get on with it.
Mad? Don't think so, but you can be the judge.
Hancock was completely on the case in my view. Apart of course from where he was otherwise engaged.
Javid just made a noise. I'd prefer Hancock in charge of health, and I'd much prefer to see Hunt at the helm.
I honestly can't think of a single scenario where Hancock was on the case. The vaccine procurement was handed to the VTF and a specialist in biotech VC because Hancock wasn't trusted to actually do it properly. He completely bungled PPE procurement and even the roll out of testing was simply turned into a numbers game, on isolation he completely failed to get treasury buy in to make isolation viable for ordinary people and on reopening he was simply unable to see beyond lockdowns. He was and is a complete disaster and whoever leaked that video did the nation a huge favour.
The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.
Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.
The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.
The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.
Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.
Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....
I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
I was under the presumption that you needed to be vaccinated to be able to travel in and out of all European countries?
Edit:- I think some say vaccinated or recovered from covid right? I presume this case might be a reinfection, which from the evidence of Beta variant that was a big concern that it was fairly easy to get reinfected with this variant after having had one of the other ones.
Exactly. How can you possibly get on a plane without proving you are jabbed? Fuck that shit
It’s a jab or a negative test plus quarantine at the other end
the European Commission's recommendation that EU countries stop travel to and from nations where the variant has been found is a "reasonable precautionary measure" while scientists investigate.
Anyone notice the local by-elections last night? Huge swings to the Tories in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Nuneaton, seats Labour needs to win to get a majority.
Apparently its all down to local issues and nothing to worry about for Labour. They have only been in opposition to 12 years, swings to the governing party are normal!!
......the people Had forfeited the confidence of the Opposition And could only win it back By increased votes. Would it not in that case be simpler for the Opposition To dissolve the people And elect another?
Scotland will face Ukraine in the World Cup playoff semi-final.
Winner will face Wales or Austria.
Oh, so at least one of Italy or Portugal won’t be going to Qatar.
Not sure this format is the best way to produce the most competitive World Cup entrants.
Not really. It's been fail to win your group and you are in the playoffs for some years now. Was a time it was only group winners. Italy, Holland, Sweden and the USA missed out last time. There are always notable non-qualifiers. And surprise qualifiers. Always have been. Mexico in a bit of strife too.
But they're gerrymandering the playoffs to include two teams (Austria and Czech Republic) that didn't even finish in the top 2 of their groups. Look at the playoffs last time:
The eight teams were seeded fairly. Personally, I think they should have seeded the draw so that the three best ranked teams would be kept apart in the finals (i.e. Portugal, Scotland (!), and Italy).
the European Commission's recommendation that EU countries stop travel to and from nations where the variant has been found is a "reasonable precautionary measure" while scientists investigate.
Javid really should be issuing some sort of public health advisory. Wear a mask where you can, don't do so much daft stuff, work from home if there's an option, and if you're croaky, stay home.
Someone this morning said he looked like a rabbit in the headlights - I think that's right. He rather brushed aside Hancock's work (the actual work). I think Hancock was a far better Health minister though.
Are you mad? Hancock was completely incapable. Javid overnight forced through a red list decision. With Hancock they gave days of notice each time. He also forced through vaccines for 12-15 year olds and a very, very wide booster programme. Aiui he laid down the law to the JCVI about their remit wrt giving vaccines away and told them to get on with it.
Mad? Don't think so, but you can be the judge.
Hancock was completely on the case in my view. Apart of course from where he was otherwise engaged.
Javid just made a noise. I'd prefer Hancock in charge of health, and I'd much prefer to see Hunt at the helm.
I honestly can't think of a single scenario where Hancock was on the case. The vaccine procurement was handed to the VTF and a specialist in biotech VC because Hancock wasn't trusted to actually do it properly. He completely bungled PPE procurement and even the roll out of testing was simply turned into a numbers game, on isolation he completely failed to get treasury buy in to make isolation viable for ordinary people and on reopening he was simply unable to see beyond lockdowns. He was and is a complete disaster and whoever leaked that video did the nation a huge favour.
He was also in charge when they rammed the care homes full of untested frail elderly just to clear the hospitals.
the European Commission's recommendation that EU countries stop travel to and from nations where the variant has been found is a "reasonable precautionary measure" while scientists investigate.
Including Belgium?
Well who wants to go to Belgium anyway....
My brother currently lives in Brussels and I am hoping to see him for Christmas.
We are booked to be in Portugal together.
I am hoping this new variant does indeed turn out to be a storm in a teacup.
Javid really should be issuing some sort of public health advisory. Wear a mask where you can, don't do so much daft stuff, work from home if there's an option, and if you're croaky, stay home.
Someone this morning said he looked like a rabbit in the headlights - I think that's right. He rather brushed aside Hancock's work (the actual work). I think Hancock was a far better Health minister though.
Are you mad? Hancock was completely incapable. Javid overnight forced through a red list decision. With Hancock they gave days of notice each time. He also forced through vaccines for 12-15 year olds and a very, very wide booster programme. Aiui he laid down the law to the JCVI about their remit wrt giving vaccines away and told them to get on with it.
Mad? Don't think so, but you can be the judge.
Hancock was completely on the case in my view. Apart of course from where he was otherwise engaged.
Javid just made a noise. I'd prefer Hancock in charge of health, and I'd much prefer to see Hunt at the helm.
I honestly can't think of a single scenario where Hancock was on the case. The vaccine procurement was handed to the VTF and a specialist in biotech VC because Hancock wasn't trusted to actually do it properly. He completely bungled PPE procurement and even the roll out of testing was simply turned into a numbers game, on isolation he completely failed to get treasury buy in to make isolation viable for ordinary people and on reopening he was simply unable to see beyond lockdowns. He was and is a complete disaster and whoever leaked that video did the nation a huge favour.
He was also in charge when they rammed the care homes full of untested frail elderly just to clear the hospitals.
Yes, I think the inquiry into COVID is not going to be kind to him or the DoH.
the European Commission's recommendation that EU countries stop travel to and from nations where the variant has been found is a "reasonable precautionary measure" while scientists investigate.
Including Belgium?
Well who wants to go to Belgium anyway....
My brother currently lives in Brussels and I am hoping to see him for Christmas.
We are booked to be in Portugal together.
I am hoping this new variant does indeed turn out to be a storm in a teacup.
What terrible thing did he do in a past life to end up living there....
[snip] There's also reason to believe that the AZ/AZ/X patients will do very well because of the broad based T-Cell immunity offered and the UK is pretty much alone in the west where 50% of our double jabbed are AZ, especially among the key over 70s cohort.
Yes, that's going to be a very interesting one to watch; we might be lucky on that one compared with countries that relied almost entirely on mRNA vaccines.
I also agree with your earlier points about bringing forward the third jabs. The case for a reduction of the interval to (say) 5 months was already strong, and it looks to me as though it's now overwhelming.
Let's hope Javid reads the riot act to the JCVI tonight and gets them to approve the decision. It would be very helpful to me and my wife as we both had our second doses at the end of June so could get our thirds in December.
I am extremely glad I had my Moderna jab Wednesday, despite feeling shite for most of yesterday and half of today (much better now). Two AZs and one Moderna does seem a near-optimum mix, as things stand. Thankyou HMG and Saj Javid
This is interesting from Israel. The PM saying they wargamed this exact Nu Scenario two weeks ago, so they have a plan ready to roll, and they are enacting it
"NOW - Israel is on the verge of a state of emergency just two weeks after its "Omega War Game" virus exercise, says PM Bennett."
The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.
Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.
The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.
The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.
Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.
Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....
I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
I was under the presumption that you needed to be vaccinated to be able to travel in and out of all European countries?
Edit:- I think some say vaccinated or recovered from covid right? I presume this case might be a reinfection, which from the evidence of Beta variant that was a big concern that it was fairly easy to get reinfected with this variant after having had one of the other ones.
Exactly. How can you possibly get on a plane without proving you are jabbed? Fuck that shit
It’s a jab or a negative test plus quarantine at the other end
It's got to become: 'an up to date vaccination' or 'a medical cert to show you cannot be vaccinated + a test + quarantine'.
the European Commission's recommendation that EU countries stop travel to and from nations where the variant has been found is a "reasonable precautionary measure" while scientists investigate.
Including Belgium?
Well who wants to go to Belgium anyway....
My brother currently lives in Brussels and I am hoping to see him for Christmas.
We are booked to be in Portugal together.
I am hoping this new variant does indeed turn out to be a storm in a teacup.
What terrible thing did he do in a past life to end up living there....
He’s a diplomat. Speaks 7 languages. Very nice, blameless chap.
[snip] There's also reason to believe that the AZ/AZ/X patients will do very well because of the broad based T-Cell immunity offered and the UK is pretty much alone in the west where 50% of our double jabbed are AZ, especially among the key over 70s cohort.
Yes, that's going to be a very interesting one to watch; we might be lucky on that one compared with countries that relied almost entirely on mRNA vaccines.
I also agree with your earlier points about bringing forward the third jabs. The case for a reduction of the interval to (say) 5 months was already strong, and it looks to me as though it's now overwhelming.
We should have mixed and matched, especially the booster.
Aren't we? My impression is that rounds 1 & 2 were mainly AZ/AZ and Pfizer/Pfizer while the booster is mainly Moderna.
[snip] There's also reason to believe that the AZ/AZ/X patients will do very well because of the broad based T-Cell immunity offered and the UK is pretty much alone in the west where 50% of our double jabbed are AZ, especially among the key over 70s cohort.
Yes, that's going to be a very interesting one to watch; we might be lucky on that one compared with countries that relied almost entirely on mRNA vaccines.
I also agree with your earlier points about bringing forward the third jabs. The case for a reduction of the interval to (say) 5 months was already strong, and it looks to me as though it's now overwhelming.
We should have mixed and matched, especially the booster.
Aren't we? My impression is that rounds 1 & 2 were mainly AZ/AZ and Pfizer/Pfizer while the booster is mainly Moderna.
AZ/AZ + Pfizer for Mrs P. and me...
but the couple after us were surprised to be getting Pfizer after Pfizer/Pfizer for their first two jabs.
Totally off topic, but for the cricket fans out there..."Hitting Against the Spin" apparently will be 99p for Kindle in December. It is literally the book that explains you why everything you think you know about cricket is probably wrong and why the commentators really are clueless especially about T20!
Javid really should be issuing some sort of public health advisory. Wear a mask where you can, don't do so much daft stuff, work from home if there's an option, and if you're croaky, stay home.
Someone this morning said he looked like a rabbit in the headlights - I think that's right. He rather brushed aside Hancock's work (the actual work). I think Hancock was a far better Health minister though.
Are you mad? Hancock was completely incapable. Javid overnight forced through a red list decision. With Hancock they gave days of notice each time. He also forced through vaccines for 12-15 year olds and a very, very wide booster programme. Aiui he laid down the law to the JCVI about their remit wrt giving vaccines away and told them to get on with it.
Mad? Don't think so, but you can be the judge.
Hancock was completely on the case in my view. Apart of course from where he was otherwise engaged.
Javid just made a noise. I'd prefer Hancock in charge of health, and I'd much prefer to see Hunt at the helm.
I honestly can't think of a single scenario where Hancock was on the case. The vaccine procurement was handed to the VTF and a specialist in biotech VC because Hancock wasn't trusted to actually do it properly. He completely bungled PPE procurement and even the roll out of testing was simply turned into a numbers game, on isolation he completely failed to get treasury buy in to make isolation viable for ordinary people and on reopening he was simply unable to see beyond lockdowns. He was and is a complete disaster and whoever leaked that video did the nation a huge favour.
I think he did an outstanding job. He was there in the middle of a total panic, and he was always calm and considered. The huge expenditure from the treasury was undoubtedly in part influenced by him (slightly too much in my view)
PPE procurement was just about finding something. Some bones can be picked over, and villains found and (my preference) shot.
Test and Trace was awful. Was that Hancock though? I don't think it was. (Cummings?)
Javid really should be issuing some sort of public health advisory. Wear a mask where you can, don't do so much daft stuff, work from home if there's an option, and if you're croaky, stay home.
Someone this morning said he looked like a rabbit in the headlights - I think that's right. He rather brushed aside Hancock's work (the actual work). I think Hancock was a far better Health minister though.
Are you mad? Hancock was completely incapable. Javid overnight forced through a red list decision. With Hancock they gave days of notice each time. He also forced through vaccines for 12-15 year olds and a very, very wide booster programme. Aiui he laid down the law to the JCVI about their remit wrt giving vaccines away and told them to get on with it.
Mad? Don't think so, but you can be the judge.
Hancock was completely on the case in my view. Apart of course from where he was otherwise engaged.
Javid just made a noise. I'd prefer Hancock in charge of health, and I'd much prefer to see Hunt at the helm.
I honestly can't think of a single scenario where Hancock was on the case. The vaccine procurement was handed to the VTF and a specialist in biotech VC because Hancock wasn't trusted to actually do it properly. He completely bungled PPE procurement and even the roll out of testing was simply turned into a numbers game, on isolation he completely failed to get treasury buy in to make isolation viable for ordinary people and on reopening he was simply unable to see beyond lockdowns. He was and is a complete disaster and whoever leaked that video did the nation a huge favour.
He was also in charge when they rammed the care homes full of untested frail elderly just to clear the hospitals.
Yes, I think the inquiry into COVID is not going to be kind to him or the DoH.
Javid really should be issuing some sort of public health advisory. Wear a mask where you can, don't do so much daft stuff, work from home if there's an option, and if you're croaky, stay home.
Someone this morning said he looked like a rabbit in the headlights - I think that's right. He rather brushed aside Hancock's work (the actual work). I think Hancock was a far better Health minister though.
I would have thought firing up the old press conference room for one this evening would have been sensible.
Seriously - to say what? We don't know anything at the moment, and there is nothing to add to what we are doing, unless you just want to impose restrictions again. The pressure on the NHS is currently easing - fewer patients being admitted, fewer in beds with covid. Let calm down a bit and see what the scientists actually find out about Nu, not what lots of pointless scaremongering speculation guesses.
[snip] There's also reason to believe that the AZ/AZ/X patients will do very well because of the broad based T-Cell immunity offered and the UK is pretty much alone in the west where 50% of our double jabbed are AZ, especially among the key over 70s cohort.
Yes, that's going to be a very interesting one to watch; we might be lucky on that one compared with countries that relied almost entirely on mRNA vaccines.
I also agree with your earlier points about bringing forward the third jabs. The case for a reduction of the interval to (say) 5 months was already strong, and it looks to me as though it's now overwhelming.
We should have mixed and matched, especially the booster.
Aren't we? My impression is that rounds 1 & 2 were mainly AZ/AZ and Pfizer/Pfizer while the booster is mainly Moderna.
Yes, but you ideal mixture is an mRNA and an AZN. All those that had Pfizer first, will just have had mRNA. I have had triple Moderna.
"However, Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association and a practising GP based in Pretoria, said it was “premature” to make predictions of a health crisis.
"“It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild,” she said. “Maybe two weeks from now I will have a different opinion but this is what we are seeing. So are we seriously worried? No. We are concerned and we watch what’s happening. But for now we’re saying, ‘OK: there’s a whole hype out there. [We’re] not sure why’.”"
Is it all just panic? Have PB's pathetic knicker-wetters disgraced themselves again?
I tend to believe Cummings that Hancock was grotesquely out of his depth and resorted to just making things up.
Name a single member of the cabinet (or Cummings himself) for whom that is not true?
Rishi is across his detail, even if I disagree with him ideologically. I rate Wallace, Zahawi and Sharma. Coffey a bit less so but she is not awful. Gove I normally rate, but he seems to have gone awol since his demotion.
"However, Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association and a practising GP based in Pretoria, said it was “premature” to make predictions of a health crisis.
"“It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild,” she said. “Maybe two weeks from now I will have a different opinion but this is what we are seeing. So are we seriously worried? No. We are concerned and we watch what’s happening. But for now we’re saying, ‘OK: there’s a whole hype out there. [We’re] not sure why’.”"
Is it all just panic? Have PB's pathetic knicker-wetters disgraced themselves again?
"However, Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association and a practising GP based in Pretoria, said it was “premature” to make predictions of a health crisis.
"“It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild,” she said. “Maybe two weeks from now I will have a different opinion but this is what we are seeing. So are we seriously worried? No. We are concerned and we watch what’s happening. But for now we’re saying, ‘OK: there’s a whole hype out there. [We’re] not sure why’.”"
Is it all just panic? Have PB's pathetic knicker-wetters disgraced themselves again?
BoJo is a lucky PM. When all looks lost, the press come out with a picture of Gendarmes sitting in their car eating sandwiches while some doomed migrants pass before their very eyes launching an equally doomed ship.
Macron then has a go at the British for causing trouble.
Javid really should be issuing some sort of public health advisory. Wear a mask where you can, don't do so much daft stuff, work from home if there's an option, and if you're croaky, stay home.
Someone this morning said he looked like a rabbit in the headlights - I think that's right. He rather brushed aside Hancock's work (the actual work). I think Hancock was a far better Health minister though.
Are you mad? Hancock was completely incapable. Javid overnight forced through a red list decision. With Hancock they gave days of notice each time. He also forced through vaccines for 12-15 year olds and a very, very wide booster programme. Aiui he laid down the law to the JCVI about their remit wrt giving vaccines away and told them to get on with it.
Mad? Don't think so, but you can be the judge.
Hancock was completely on the case in my view. Apart of course from where he was otherwise engaged.
Javid just made a noise. I'd prefer Hancock in charge of health, and I'd much prefer to see Hunt at the helm.
I honestly can't think of a single scenario where Hancock was on the case. The vaccine procurement was handed to the VTF and a specialist in biotech VC because Hancock wasn't trusted to actually do it properly. He completely bungled PPE procurement and even the roll out of testing was simply turned into a numbers game, on isolation he completely failed to get treasury buy in to make isolation viable for ordinary people and on reopening he was simply unable to see beyond lockdowns. He was and is a complete disaster and whoever leaked that video did the nation a huge favour.
I think he did an outstanding job. He was there in the middle of a total panic, and he was always calm and considered. The huge expenditure from the treasury was undoubtedly in part influenced by him (slightly too much in my view)
PPE procurement was just about finding something. Some bones can be picked over, and villains found and (my preference) shot.
Test and Trace was awful. Was that Hancock though? I don't think it was. (Cummings?)
Vaccination was good. Presumably him.
T&T is all Hancock and Dido, it was and still is pretty rubbish. Vaccines was the VTF, not Hancock. If anyone in the government is to take credit it's Dom for taking it away from the DoH and Boris for approaching and appointing Kate Bingham who is a specialist in biotech investment (picking winners). PPE was a disaster, we actively ignored UK based PPE manufacturers in favour of Tory donors and cowboys who said they could source PPE and then didn't deliver.
You seem to have an odd attachment to Hancock, he was useless and the government was drastically improved when he got booted.
Javid really should be issuing some sort of public health advisory. Wear a mask where you can, don't do so much daft stuff, work from home if there's an option, and if you're croaky, stay home.
Someone this morning said he looked like a rabbit in the headlights - I think that's right. He rather brushed aside Hancock's work (the actual work). I think Hancock was a far better Health minister though.
Are you mad? Hancock was completely incapable. Javid overnight forced through a red list decision. With Hancock they gave days of notice each time. He also forced through vaccines for 12-15 year olds and a very, very wide booster programme. Aiui he laid down the law to the JCVI about their remit wrt giving vaccines away and told them to get on with it.
Mad? Don't think so, but you can be the judge.
Hancock was completely on the case in my view. Apart of course from where he was otherwise engaged.
Javid just made a noise. I'd prefer Hancock in charge of health, and I'd much prefer to see Hunt at the helm.
I honestly can't think of a single scenario where Hancock was on the case. The vaccine procurement was handed to the VTF and a specialist in biotech VC because Hancock wasn't trusted to actually do it properly. He completely bungled PPE procurement and even the roll out of testing was simply turned into a numbers game, on isolation he completely failed to get treasury buy in to make isolation viable for ordinary people and on reopening he was simply unable to see beyond lockdowns. He was and is a complete disaster and whoever leaked that video did the nation a huge favour.
He was also in charge when they rammed the care homes full of untested frail elderly just to clear the hospitals.
Yes, I think the inquiry into COVID is not going to be kind to him or the DoH.
The initial advice came from PHE.
I will repeat *again) what I was told - that permanent officials were appalled to discover that ministers are planning, when the eventual enquiry comes, to deny responsibility for actions taken against their express instructions.
"However, Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association and a practising GP based in Pretoria, said it was “premature” to make predictions of a health crisis.
"“It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild,” she said. “Maybe two weeks from now I will have a different opinion but this is what we are seeing. So are we seriously worried? No. We are concerned and we watch what’s happening. But for now we’re saying, ‘OK: there’s a whole hype out there. [We’re] not sure why’.”"
Is it all just panic? Have PB's pathetic knicker-wetters disgraced themselves again?
"However, Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association and a practising GP based in Pretoria, said it was “premature” to make predictions of a health crisis.
"“It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild,” she said. “Maybe two weeks from now I will have a different opinion but this is what we are seeing. So are we seriously worried? No. We are concerned and we watch what’s happening. But for now we’re saying, ‘OK: there’s a whole hype out there. [We’re] not sure why’.”"
Is it all just panic? Have PB's pathetic knicker-wetters disgraced themselves again?
"However, Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association and a practising GP based in Pretoria, said it was “premature” to make predictions of a health crisis.
"“It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild,” she said. “Maybe two weeks from now I will have a different opinion but this is what we are seeing. So are we seriously worried? No. We are concerned and we watch what’s happening. But for now we’re saying, ‘OK: there’s a whole hype out there. [We’re] not sure why’.”"
Is it all just panic? Have PB's pathetic knicker-wetters disgraced themselves again?
If the cases are mild for people with immunity and this is more transmissible then this could be the endgame for COVID. The question is how it presents in unvaccinated people with no natural immunity. If it spreads rapidly and causes severe cases among those with no immunity it could be a very, very bad winter for countries like NZ and Oz who have got little to no reservoir of natural immunity.
We may just luck out and this variant will be extremely infectious, but relatively mild, and the whole fucking kerfuffle finally fizzles out, as new SuperMild NuNu outcompetes its nastier but less viral peers
I did ask politely before my booster if I could have an AZ vaccine this time, having had the Pfizer for my first two. Nothing wrong with spreading your bets as all the gamblers on here kvow well. Unfortunately, it wasn't possible but I did try
Yet ask them if they want to restore EU free movement, UK payments to the EU and ECJ jurisdiction over the UK and stop the UK doing its own trade deals and you would get a rather different answer
Anyone notice the local by-elections last night? Huge swings to the Tories in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Nuneaton, seats Labour needs to win to get a majority.
Apparently its all down to local issues and nothing to worry about for Labour. They have only been in opposition to 12 years, swings to the governing party are normal!!
It's perfectly possible for a governing party to win seats in local by-elections.
A lot depends on the circumstances of the by-election and the ability of any party to get its vote out - the turnouts were (not surprisingly) derisory in some of the contests so a well organised postal vote operation can pay dividends.
As for @isam's comment on Wandsworth, I explained that down thread - Bedford is a highly marginal Ward.
Scotland will face Ukraine in the World Cup playoff semi-final.
Winner will face Wales or Austria.
Oh, so at least one of Italy or Portugal won’t be going to Qatar.
Not sure this format is the best way to produce the most competitive World Cup entrants.
Not really. It's been fail to win your group and you are in the playoffs for some years now. Was a time it was only group winners. Italy, Holland, Sweden and the USA missed out last time. There are always notable non-qualifiers. And surprise qualifiers. Always have been. Mexico in a bit of strife too.
But they're gerrymandering the playoffs to include two teams (Austria and Czech Republic) that didn't even finish in the top 2 of their groups. Look at the playoffs last time:
The eight teams were seeded fairly. Personally, I think they should have seeded the draw so that the three best ranked teams would be kept apart in the finals (i.e. Portugal, Scotland (!), and Italy).
Yes. Fair comment. The problem has arisen largely cos Europe has gained more teams. And been stuck at 13 qualifiers for a while. No system will be perfect, as 13 isn't a great number to play with. The previous one was 9 groups and 4 winners of playoffs from the best 8 runners up. Which wasn't great for the ninth best runner up. Especially because they were ninth from being in a strong group. Before that a random runner up played an Asian team. Ireland played off against Iran ISTR. Personally, the whole system needs a re-think. Maybe we should have European pre-qualification groups. And then worldwide final stage groups?
We may just luck out and this variant will be extremely infectious, but relatively mild, and the whole fucking kerfuffle finally fizzles out, as new SuperMild NuNu outcompetes its nastier but less viral peers
I for one shall say a prayer to Gaia
An Rt of 1.94 is tiny (actually lower than original COVID), Delta has an Rt of 6.5, for example. Is there any further information?
"However, Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association and a practising GP based in Pretoria, said it was “premature” to make predictions of a health crisis.
"“It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild,” she said. “Maybe two weeks from now I will have a different opinion but this is what we are seeing. So are we seriously worried? No. We are concerned and we watch what’s happening. But for now we’re saying, ‘OK: there’s a whole hype out there. [We’re] not sure why’.”"
Is it all just panic? Have PB's pathetic knicker-wetters disgraced themselves again?
If the cases are mild for people with immunity and this is more transmissible then this could be the endgame for COVID. The question is how it presents in unvaccinated people with no natural immunity. If it spreads rapidly and causes severe cases among those with no immunity it could be a very, very bad winter for countries like NZ and Oz who have got little to no reservoir of natural immunity.
Yep. I don't think there is much doubt now that it is notably infectious. But severity in vaxxed and/or unvaxxed? That's the key
However NZ and Oz are now jabbed to the eyeballs, so if it doesn't hit the vaxxed hard, they will be fine
If there is one thing I am going to tell you today it is to IGNORE the media and the clickbait headlines on this new variant. There is NO plausible scenario this will take us back to square one and there is a lot of misinformation currently circulating.
Yes, worth saying. But also worth saying that 'back to square 1' is at the catastrophic end of possibilities. For me, the bad realistic one is that Nu is highly transmissible AND has a high hospitalization/death effect AND evades the vaccines to a degree that means a new vaccine has to be made and rolled out. Kind of a 'back to square 2 or 3' scenario. But I really hope not.
Yes, that's the Reasonable Worst Case Scenario, and as Rule 1 of Covid unfortunately tells us, that is generally what happens (with one huge exception: vaccines, there we got the Reasonable Best Case Scenario - effective jabs within a year)
Chill Winston. To name two. The reasonable worst case fatality ratio was far higher than it’s turned out to be. There was a brief period in April 2020 when it looked like the free pass covid generally gives to kids was about to be revoked.
Ya sure?
Various authorities say that Covid has now killed 10-20 million people, worldwide (official figure is 5m but it is clearly nonsense). And a few million more will piss on their chips before we're done
If you'd asked folk at the outset of Covid how they felt about 20 million dying around the world, and maybe 200,000 in the UK, they would have filed that under "reasonable worst case scenario" if not "get tae fuck, madman"
I remember the incredulous expression of the Channel 4 News guy when he interviewed Neil Ferguson, as he asked Ferguson how many might die if we don't do lockdowns and stuff. Ferguson said, very carefully, "it could be 500,000, that's a reasonable worse case scenario"
The C4 dude basically laughed in disbelief. Yet Ferguson was right. 500,000 could easily have died without mitigations
How many millions of schoolchildren have had their education ruined by the lockdown?
"However, Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association and a practising GP based in Pretoria, said it was “premature” to make predictions of a health crisis.
"“It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild,” she said. “Maybe two weeks from now I will have a different opinion but this is what we are seeing. So are we seriously worried? No. We are concerned and we watch what’s happening. But for now we’re saying, ‘OK: there’s a whole hype out there. [We’re] not sure why’.”"
Is it all just panic? Have PB's pathetic knicker-wetters disgraced themselves again?
If the cases are mild for people with immunity and this is more transmissible then this could be the endgame for COVID. The question is how it presents in unvaccinated people with no natural immunity. If it spreads rapidly and causes severe cases among those with no immunity it could be a very, very bad winter for countries like NZ and Oz who have got little to no reservoir of natural immunity.
Yep. I don't think there is much doubt now that it is notably infectious. But severity in vaxxed and/or unvaxxed? That's the key
However NZ and Oz are now jabbed to the eyeballs, so if it doesn't hit the vaxxed hard, they will be fine
We need that evasion and severity data
Their vax rates are about the same as ours, but they have got no natural immunity. I'd much rather be in our position than their position, for sure.
In any case, I don't think this is going to be that bad, nothing worth warranting another lockdown here.
Anyone notice the local by-elections last night? Huge swings to the Tories in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Nuneaton, seats Labour needs to win to get a majority.
Apparently its all down to local issues and nothing to worry about for Labour. They have only been in opposition to 12 years, swings to the governing party are normal!!
It's perfectly possible for a governing party to win seats in local by-elections.
A lot depends on the circumstances of the by-election and the ability of any party to get its vote out - the turnouts were (not surprisingly) derisory in some of the contests so a well organised postal vote operation can pay dividends.
As for @isam's comment on Wandsworth, I explained that down thread - Bedford is a highly marginal Ward.
Also quite easily in Scottish local by-elections, if the confounding factor of the difference between multivacancy slates (as in normal elections) and single vacancies (as in a by election) happens to be favoiurable to the ruling party.
We may just luck out and this variant will be extremely infectious, but relatively mild, and the whole fucking kerfuffle finally fizzles out, as new SuperMild NuNu outcompetes its nastier but less viral peers
I for one shall say a prayer to Gaia
An Rt of 1.94 is tiny (actually lower than original COVID), Delta has an Rt of 6.5, for example. Is there any further information?
I'm trying to work out what he means by "effective reproduction number" - presumably it is not pure R, but some kind of R in the real world, where there is some immunity and mitigation?
I'm sure I could pass a GCSE in epidemiology now. But not an A Level
Anyone notice the local by-elections last night? Huge swings to the Tories in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Nuneaton, seats Labour needs to win to get a majority.
And Labour winning by one vote in Wandsworth!
In a seat they won easily at the last local elections.
If there is one thing I am going to tell you today it is to IGNORE the media and the clickbait headlines on this new variant. There is NO plausible scenario this will take us back to square one and there is a lot of misinformation currently circulating.
Yes, worth saying. But also worth saying that 'back to square 1' is at the catastrophic end of possibilities. For me, the bad realistic one is that Nu is highly transmissible AND has a high hospitalization/death effect AND evades the vaccines to a degree that means a new vaccine has to be made and rolled out. Kind of a 'back to square 2 or 3' scenario. But I really hope not.
Yes, that's the Reasonable Worst Case Scenario, and as Rule 1 of Covid unfortunately tells us, that is generally what happens (with one huge exception: vaccines, there we got the Reasonable Best Case Scenario - effective jabs within a year)
Chill Winston. To name two. The reasonable worst case fatality ratio was far higher than it’s turned out to be. There was a brief period in April 2020 when it looked like the free pass covid generally gives to kids was about to be revoked.
Ya sure?
Various authorities say that Covid has now killed 10-20 million people, worldwide (official figure is 5m but it is clearly nonsense). And a few million more will piss on their chips before we're done
If you'd asked folk at the outset of Covid how they felt about 20 million dying around the world, and maybe 200,000 in the UK, they would have filed that under "reasonable worst case scenario" if not "get tae fuck, madman"
I remember the incredulous expression of the Channel 4 News guy when he interviewed Neil Ferguson, as he asked Ferguson how many might die if we don't do lockdowns and stuff. Ferguson said, very carefully, "it could be 500,000, that's a reasonable worse case scenario"
The C4 dude basically laughed in disbelief. Yet Ferguson was right. 500,000 could easily have died without mitigations
How many millions of schoolchildren have had their education ruined by the lockdown?
Dude, I totally agree
Sometimes I still wonder if we shoulda let the whole thing rip
"However, Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association and a practising GP based in Pretoria, said it was “premature” to make predictions of a health crisis.
"“It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild,” she said. “Maybe two weeks from now I will have a different opinion but this is what we are seeing. So are we seriously worried? No. We are concerned and we watch what’s happening. But for now we’re saying, ‘OK: there’s a whole hype out there. [We’re] not sure why’.”"
Is it all just panic? Have PB's pathetic knicker-wetters disgraced themselves again?
"However, Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association and a practising GP based in Pretoria, said it was “premature” to make predictions of a health crisis.
"“It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild,” she said. “Maybe two weeks from now I will have a different opinion but this is what we are seeing. So are we seriously worried? No. We are concerned and we watch what’s happening. But for now we’re saying, ‘OK: there’s a whole hype out there. [We’re] not sure why’.”"
Is it all just panic? Have PB's pathetic knicker-wetters disgraced themselves again?
If the cases are mild for people with immunity and this is more transmissible then this could be the endgame for COVID. The question is how it presents in unvaccinated people with no natural immunity. If it spreads rapidly and causes severe cases among those with no immunity it could be a very, very bad winter for countries like NZ and Oz who have got little to no reservoir of natural immunity.
Yep. I don't think there is much doubt now that it is notably infectious. But severity in vaxxed and/or unvaxxed? That's the key
However NZ and Oz are now jabbed to the eyeballs, so if it doesn't hit the vaxxed hard, they will be fine
We need that evasion and severity data
Their vax rates are about the same as ours, but they have got no natural immunity. I'd much rather be in our position than their position, for sure.
In any case, I don't think this is going to be that bad, nothing worth warranting another lockdown here.
But 18 months ago if given the choice of where to be in Dec 2021, we’d have taken their cumulative deaths and relative vaccine levels versus ours. It’s a curious game of tortoise and hare all this and it’s still not clear where the finish line is. Many have been the time when I’ve felt smug to be living in the Uk only to feel soon after that fate had pulled out trousers down again.
We may just luck out and this variant will be extremely infectious, but relatively mild, and the whole fucking kerfuffle finally fizzles out, as new SuperMild NuNu outcompetes its nastier but less viral peers
I for one shall say a prayer to Gaia
An Rt of 1.94 is tiny (actually lower than original COVID), Delta has an Rt of 6.5, for example. Is there any further information?
I'm trying to work out what he means by "effective reproduction number" - presumably it is not pure R, but some kind of R in the real world, where there is some immunity and mitigation?
I'm sure I could pass a GCSE in epidemiology now. But not an A Level
R of 1.94 in a fully vaccinated population would imply a high level of immunity escape, in a poorly vaccinated population it would be around the same Rt as Delta, maybe a bit higher at Rt 8-9 which is not a disaster, at least not for a country like the UK where there are 51m people with some level of vaccination and a further 8-10m with natural immunity.
Once again, I think we should all take a moment to realise just how well Kate Bingham did with vaccine procurement. All of those early decisions have come up trumps again. Being able to do ~30m third doses before Xmas this year is a position that so many other countries don't have because their second doses were done in August and September.
A slightly modified rule we should all live by - vaccinate early and vaccinate often.
We may just luck out and this variant will be extremely infectious, but relatively mild, and the whole fucking kerfuffle finally fizzles out, as new SuperMild NuNu outcompetes its nastier but less viral peers
I for one shall say a prayer to Gaia
An Rt of 1.94 is tiny (actually lower than original COVID), Delta has an Rt of 6.5, for example. Is there any further information?
Of course Rt depends on how much immunity there is in the population, so you can't compare it with the Rt of the original COVID in a population without immunity.
We may just luck out and this variant will be extremely infectious, but relatively mild, and the whole fucking kerfuffle finally fizzles out, as new SuperMild NuNu outcompetes its nastier but less viral peers
I for one shall say a prayer to Gaia
An Rt of 1.94 is tiny (actually lower than original COVID), Delta has an Rt of 6.5, for example. Is there any further information?
I'm trying to work out what he means by "effective reproduction number" - presumably it is not pure R, but some kind of R in the real world, where there is some immunity and mitigation?
I'm sure I could pass a GCSE in epidemiology now. But not an A Level
R of 1.94 in a fully vaccinated population would imply a high level of immunity escape, in a poorly vaccinated population it would be around the same Rt as Delta, maybe a bit higher at Rt 8-9 which is not a disaster, at least not for a country like the UK where there are 51m people with some level of vaccination and a further 8-10m with natural immunity.
Guy on Twitter reckons this data implies that Nu's R0 is close to measles: R16
You need 95% immunity to suppress measles, we won't get that until we've all got the Nunu, it will infect everyone vulnerable very fast
Still not a disaster if it is not severe, indeed possibly the end of the pandemic, as you have said
We may just luck out and this variant will be extremely infectious, but relatively mild, and the whole fucking kerfuffle finally fizzles out, as new SuperMild NuNu outcompetes its nastier but less viral peers
I for one shall say a prayer to Gaia
An Rt of 1.94 is tiny (actually lower than original COVID), Delta has an Rt of 6.5, for example. Is there any further information?
Doesn't seem to make any sense, does it?
You'd need the mean time from exposure to infecting others to be ~3 days for that to be ballpark right, wouldn't you (so in three days your 100 can infect ~ 200 and after another three days tey've infected ~400). Which I understood to be definitely on the short side for current variants. It is of course possible that Nu could make people infectious quicker....
Of course, depends on population studied too - if that Rt is among double vaccinated, say, then the R0 could be much higher depending how effective vaccines are.
If there is one thing I am going to tell you today it is to IGNORE the media and the clickbait headlines on this new variant. There is NO plausible scenario this will take us back to square one and there is a lot of misinformation currently circulating.
Yes, worth saying. But also worth saying that 'back to square 1' is at the catastrophic end of possibilities. For me, the bad realistic one is that Nu is highly transmissible AND has a high hospitalization/death effect AND evades the vaccines to a degree that means a new vaccine has to be made and rolled out. Kind of a 'back to square 2 or 3' scenario. But I really hope not.
Yes, that's the Reasonable Worst Case Scenario, and as Rule 1 of Covid unfortunately tells us, that is generally what happens (with one huge exception: vaccines, there we got the Reasonable Best Case Scenario - effective jabs within a year)
Chill Winston. To name two. The reasonable worst case fatality ratio was far higher than it’s turned out to be. There was a brief period in April 2020 when it looked like the free pass covid generally gives to kids was about to be revoked.
Ya sure?
Various authorities say that Covid has now killed 10-20 million people, worldwide (official figure is 5m but it is clearly nonsense). And a few million more will piss on their chips before we're done
If you'd asked folk at the outset of Covid how they felt about 20 million dying around the world, and maybe 200,000 in the UK, they would have filed that under "reasonable worst case scenario" if not "get tae fuck, madman"
I remember the incredulous expression of the Channel 4 News guy when he interviewed Neil Ferguson, as he asked Ferguson how many might die if we don't do lockdowns and stuff. Ferguson said, very carefully, "it could be 500,000, that's a reasonable worse case scenario"
The C4 dude basically laughed in disbelief. Yet Ferguson was right. 500,000 could easily have died without mitigations
How many millions of schoolchildren have had their education ruined by the lockdown?
Dude, I totally agree
Sometimes I still wonder if we shoulda let the whole thing rip
That would overwhelm our health system and send death rates back to the 1800s.
I do think that schools are the one thing that should have stayed open though. Especially for under 10s.
Yet ask them if they want to restore EU free movement, UK payments to the EU and ECJ jurisdiction over the UK and stop the UK doing its own trade deals and you would get a rather different answer
From which I would conclude: Brexit is still quite popular as an idea but this government is delivering it badly.
Scotland will face Ukraine in the World Cup playoff semi-final.
Winner will face Wales or Austria.
Oh, so at least one of Italy or Portugal won’t be going to Qatar.
Not sure this format is the best way to produce the most competitive World Cup entrants.
Not really. It's been fail to win your group and you are in the playoffs for some years now. Was a time it was only group winners. Italy, Holland, Sweden and the USA missed out last time. There are always notable non-qualifiers. And surprise qualifiers. Always have been. Mexico in a bit of strife too.
But they're gerrymandering the playoffs to include two teams (Austria and Czech Republic) that didn't even finish in the top 2 of their groups. Look at the playoffs last time:
The eight teams were seeded fairly. Personally, I think they should have seeded the draw so that the three best ranked teams would be kept apart in the finals (i.e. Portugal, Scotland (!), and Italy).
Yes. Fair comment. The problem has arisen largely cos Europe has gained more teams. And been stuck at 13 qualifiers for a while. No system will be perfect, as 13 isn't a great number to play with. The previous one was 9 groups and 4 winners of playoffs from the best 8 runners up. Which wasn't great for the ninth best runner up. Especially because they were ninth from being in a strong group. Before that a random runner up played an Asian team. Ireland played off against Iran ISTR. Personally, the whole system needs a re-think. Maybe we should have European pre-qualification groups. And then worldwide final stage groups?
So if I were the dictator of football (and I obviously should be), I would let UEFA have their 24 team Euros and say those 24 teams automatically qualify for the World Cup qualifiers. The rest would compete for the remaining 12 places. The likes of San Marino would play-off to get down to 24 teams and I'd draw them from two pots of seeds and non-seeds.
Obviously the World Cup should stay at 32 teams. I would give the host a place, the holder a place and then:
For UEFA, I'd have six groups of six with the top two teams qualifying automatically and the best third place team going into an intercontinental play-off.
For the World Cup itself, I'd have eight groups of four as now but only the group winners qualify. Then have two more groups of four with the winners of those groups meeting in the final and the runners-up meeting in the third place play-off. And, I'd give a place at the next world cup to the runner-up and winner of the third place play-off (i.e. to incentivise teams to try to get into that match).
The runner-up and third place teams would count to their confederation's quota. So if they were both European, UEFA would have 10.5 places, in which case group winners and the best four runners up qualify automatically. The fifth best runner up goes into the intercontinental play-off.
We may just luck out and this variant will be extremely infectious, but relatively mild, and the whole fucking kerfuffle finally fizzles out, as new SuperMild NuNu outcompetes its nastier but less viral peers
I for one shall say a prayer to Gaia
An Rt of 1.94 is tiny (actually lower than original COVID), Delta has an Rt of 6.5, for example. Is there any further information?
Doesn't seem to make any sense, does it?
You'd need the mean time from exposure to infecting others to be ~3 days for that to be ballpark right, wouldn't you (so in three days your 100 can infect ~ 200 and after another three days tey've infected ~400). Which I understood to be definitely on the short side for current variants. It is of course possible that Nu could make people infectious quicker....
Of course, depends on population studied too - if that Rt is among double vaccinated, say, then the R0 could be much higher depending how effective vaccines are.
Yes, as a number alone it's not very useful. We need to know the circumstances of the spread.
We may just luck out and this variant will be extremely infectious, but relatively mild, and the whole fucking kerfuffle finally fizzles out, as new SuperMild NuNu outcompetes its nastier but less viral peers
I for one shall say a prayer to Gaia
An Rt of 1.94 is tiny (actually lower than original COVID), Delta has an Rt of 6.5, for example. Is there any further information?
I'm trying to work out what he means by "effective reproduction number" - presumably it is not pure R, but some kind of R in the real world, where there is some immunity and mitigation?
I'm sure I could pass a GCSE in epidemiology now. But not an A Level
R of 1.94 in a fully vaccinated population would imply a high level of immunity escape, in a poorly vaccinated population it would be around the same Rt as Delta, maybe a bit higher at Rt 8-9 which is not a disaster, at least not for a country like the UK where there are 51m people with some level of vaccination and a further 8-10m with natural immunity.
Guy on Twitter reckons this data implies that Nu's R0 is close to measles: R16
You need 95% immunity to suppress measles, we won't get that until we've all got the Nunu, it will infect everyone vulnerable very fast
Still not a disaster if it is not severe, indeed possibly the end of the pandemic, as you have said
Amazing what a few tuna nigiri will do to settle the nerves stomach.
Doesn't mention South Africa selling off its AZ in some mad delusion. Doesn't mention the fact South Africa has 17m jabs waiting in warehouses, but no arms to put them in, because of vaccine refusal. It's all the fault of the rich countries. Of course
We may just luck out and this variant will be extremely infectious, but relatively mild, and the whole fucking kerfuffle finally fizzles out, as new SuperMild NuNu outcompetes its nastier but less viral peers
I for one shall say a prayer to Gaia
An Rt of 1.94 is tiny (actually lower than original COVID), Delta has an Rt of 6.5, for example. Is there any further information?
Doesn't seem to make any sense, does it?
You'd need the mean time from exposure to infecting others to be ~3 days for that to be ballpark right, wouldn't you (so in three days your 100 can infect ~ 200 and after another three days tey've infected ~400). Which I understood to be definitely on the short side for current variants. It is of course possible that Nu could make people infectious quicker....
Of course, depends on population studied too - if that Rt is among double vaccinated, say, then the R0 could be much higher depending how effective vaccines are.
If it makes people infectious earlier, it also means that LFTs will pick it up earlier.
Comments
Hancock was completely on the case in my view. Apart of course from where he was otherwise engaged.
Javid just made a noise. I'd prefer Hancock in charge of health, and I'd much prefer to see Hunt at the helm.
And when the "professionals" were being dilatory about it, he gave them a further kick by handing responsibility for the booster program back to the people who ran the original vaccination program.
https://www.pressreader.com/uk/western-daily-press/20201008/281539408419088
Obviously, this new variant is a cause of concern and has spooked the financial markets accordingly. As you say, unless there is clear evidence the current vaccination regimen is ineffective, I'm not going to get too concerned.
It will be interesting to see how the efficacy of the triple vaccination performs over time especially as the new variant will doubtless gain traction worldwide.
I suspect we might be looking at fourth vaccinations in April-May?
Various authorities say that Covid has now killed 10-20 million people, worldwide (official figure is 5m but it is clearly nonsense). And a few million more will piss on their chips before we're done
If you'd asked folk at the outset of Covid how they felt about 20 million dying around the world, and maybe 200,000 in the UK, they would have filed that under "reasonable worst case scenario" if not "get tae fuck, madman"
I remember the incredulous expression of the Channel 4 News guy when he interviewed Neil Ferguson, as he asked Ferguson how many might die if we don't do lockdowns and stuff. Ferguson said, very carefully, "it could be 500,000, that's a reasonable worse case scenario"
The C4 dude basically laughed in disbelief. Yet Ferguson was right. 500,000 could easily have died without mitigations
Had forfeited the confidence of the Opposition
And could only win it back
By increased votes. Would it not in that case be simpler
for the Opposition
To dissolve the people
And elect another?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA)#Second_round
The eight teams were seeded fairly. Personally, I think they should have seeded the draw so that the three best ranked teams would be kept apart in the finals (i.e. Portugal, Scotland (!), and Italy).
We are booked to be in Portugal together.
I am hoping this new variant does indeed turn out to be a storm in a teacup.
This is interesting from Israel. The PM saying they wargamed this exact Nu Scenario two weeks ago, so they have a plan ready to roll, and they are enacting it
"NOW - Israel is on the verge of a state of emergency just two weeks after its "Omega War Game" virus exercise, says PM Bennett."
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1464274356922683413?s=20
I tend to believe Cummings that Hancock was grotesquely out of his depth and resorted to just making things up.
Speaks 7 languages.
Very nice, blameless chap.
After 38 minutes.
That's a goal every 3 minutes.
It ended 19-0 so they took mercy in the second half.
but the couple after us were surprised to be getting Pfizer after Pfizer/Pfizer for their first two jabs.
So no, it's not always being mixed and matched.
There's a reason why he got on so well with Boris and Boris tried to hang onto him.
PPE procurement was just about finding something. Some bones can be picked over, and villains found and (my preference) shot.
Test and Trace was awful. Was that Hancock though? I don't think it was. (Cummings?)
Vaccination was good. Presumably him.
"However, Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association and a practising GP based in Pretoria, said it was “premature” to make predictions of a health crisis.
"“It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild,” she said. “Maybe two weeks from now I will have a different opinion but this is what we are seeing. So are we seriously worried? No. We are concerned and we watch what’s happening. But for now we’re saying, ‘OK: there’s a whole hype out there. [We’re] not sure why’.”"
Is it all just panic? Have PB's pathetic knicker-wetters disgraced themselves again?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/26/south-africa-b11529-covid-variant-vaccination
Macron then has a go at the British for causing trouble.
Going well: 18% (n/c)
Going badly: 52% (-1)
Neither: 20% (-1)
Changes from Sept 29
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2021/11/26/af1f1/1?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=daily_questions+&utm_campaign=question_1 https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1464278384914141225/photo/1
You seem to have an odd attachment to Hancock, he was useless and the government was drastically improved when he got booted.
Fun times
1. Zahawi
2. Sharma
3. Wallace
4. Rishi
5. Coffey
6. Gove
7. Javid
8. Kwarteng
9. Truss
10. Frost
11. Shapps
12. Patel
12. Raab
13. Johnson
Others are unknown / unrated.
"Ryan Imgrund
@imgrund
BREAKING NEWS The effective reproduction number of the B.1.1.529 variant first found in Gauteng Province, South Africa is 1.94.
R indicated something may have been awry back on October 29th.
An Rt of 1.94 corresponds to a quadrupling of cases in just six days."
https://twitter.com/imgrund/status/1464278502656598020?s=20
We may just luck out and this variant will be extremely infectious, but relatively mild, and the whole fucking kerfuffle finally fizzles out, as new SuperMild NuNu outcompetes its nastier but less viral peers
I for one shall say a prayer to Gaia
A lot depends on the circumstances of the by-election and the ability of any party to get its vote out - the turnouts were (not surprisingly) derisory in some of the contests so a well organised postal vote operation can pay dividends.
As for @isam's comment on Wandsworth, I explained that down thread - Bedford is a highly marginal Ward.
The previous one was 9 groups and 4 winners of playoffs from the best 8 runners up. Which wasn't great for the ninth best runner up. Especially because they were ninth from being in a strong group.
Before that a random runner up played an Asian team. Ireland played off against Iran ISTR.
Personally, the whole system needs a re-think.
Maybe we should have European pre-qualification groups.
And then worldwide final stage groups?
However NZ and Oz are now jabbed to the eyeballs, so if it doesn't hit the vaxxed hard, they will be fine
We need that evasion and severity data
AND - they're working. You can clearly see hospitalisations and deaths are still falling even as cases approach record highs again.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/covid-19-booster-vaccines-drive-down-hospital-admissions-in-uk-1322069
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1464273914713059331?s=20
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1464280278197846025?s=20
In any case, I don't think this is going to be that bad, nothing worth warranting another lockdown here.
I'm sure I could pass a GCSE in epidemiology now. But not an A Level
Sometimes I still wonder if we shoulda let the whole thing rip
A slightly modified rule we should all live by - vaccinate early and vaccinate often.
You need 95% immunity to suppress measles, we won't get that until we've all got the Nunu, it will infect everyone vulnerable very fast
Still not a disaster if it is not severe, indeed possibly the end of the pandemic, as you have said
You'd need the mean time from exposure to infecting others to be ~3 days for that to be ballpark right, wouldn't you (so in three days your 100 can infect ~ 200 and after another three days tey've infected ~400). Which I understood to be definitely on the short side for current variants. It is of course possible that Nu could make people infectious quicker....
Of course, depends on population studied too - if that Rt is among double vaccinated, say, then the R0 could be much higher depending how effective vaccines are.
https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
I do think that schools are the one thing that should have stayed open though. Especially for under 10s.
No surprise really.
Obviously the World Cup should stay at 32 teams. I would give the host a place, the holder a place and then:
UEFA - 12.5 places
CONMEBOL - 4.5 places
CAF - 4.5 places
AFC - 4.5 places
CONCACAF - 3.5 places
OCEANIA - 0.5 places
For UEFA, I'd have six groups of six with the top two teams qualifying automatically and the best third place team going into an intercontinental play-off.
For the World Cup itself, I'd have eight groups of four as now but only the group winners qualify. Then have two more groups of four with the winners of those groups meeting in the final and the runners-up meeting in the third place play-off. And, I'd give a place at the next world cup to the runner-up and winner of the third place play-off (i.e. to incentivise teams to try to get into that match).
The runner-up and third place teams would count to their confederation's quota. So if they were both European, UEFA would have 10.5 places, in which case group winners and the best four runners up qualify automatically. The fifth best runner up goes into the intercontinental play-off.
nervesstomach.https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464270976410173441?s=20
Which is interesting - because Delta went through households like a dose of salts....
"A new Covid variant is no surprise when rich countries are hoarding vaccines
"Gordon Brown"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/26/new-covid-variant-rich-countries-hoarding-vaccines
Doesn't mention South Africa selling off its AZ in some mad delusion. Doesn't mention the fact South Africa has 17m jabs waiting in warehouses, but no arms to put them in, because of vaccine refusal. It's all the fault of the rich countries. Of course