What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!
The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
And the Austrian, Belgian and Dutch outbreaks all appear to have taken off at around the same time, but have been even more dramatic.
However, the likelihood of this having been caused by a super-variant that has, somehow, miraculously avoided doing any harm to the UK or Sweden, seems remote.
It's likely the consequence of different approaches to pandemic management, coupled with variations in the timing of delivery of vaccinations to the elderly.
Maybe, maybe not. We have consistently seen waves hit at different times, even within the UK. It is all about seeding and the density of that seeding / the super spreader.
Sorry, but the inference that a superplague has ravaged a large chunk of Europe (including Denmark, which has a very strong analytical capability and would've already seen the variant if it had become established,) then teleported directly to Ireland without scything through Britain along the way, is piffle.
I think we can all be at least 99.9975% certain that Austria is not back in lockdown because a tour party from Salzburg returned from South Africa a few weeks ago harbouring mutant plague.
Northern Ireland coronavirus rates on a par with Germany, and cases in the rest of the UK have been rising. And as I say we have seen different regions spike at different times.
I am not saying it is uniquely the new variant, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is helping super charge ontop of the different time of unlocking, the lack of boosters, etc.
I am sure that over the next 48 hours this variant will be discovered in most big European countries. Why would it only be in Belgium? Esp if it is this transmissible?
As always with COVID, by the time you find out you have a problem, you got a massive f##king problem. And we have seen it time and time again, different countries, even quite connected ones, get hit at different times, even regions within countries e.g. North vs South Italy, many parts of UK. And each time the media reports x is doing amazing compared to y....
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
Not if I moved to Scotland and therefore had a vote in Scotland and blocked it too, as Carnyx and I would then be the only residents of Scotland left too on this hypothesis as well as the only people left in the UK
You'll be moving in your own personal tank I suppose?
Any country that has restrictions twelve months after vaccines became available has failed. Dismally.
If there's any restrictions reintroduced into England (and I don't mean the silly Smarkets market) then the 1922 needs to give the PM the revolver and whiskey.
"Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), earlier raised the prospect of lockdown curbs being reintroduced, warning that people must be braced for a 'change in restrictions' if the variant spreads to the UK."
It is of course going to spread to the UK, it already has, for sure. So they are saying: Here Comes Lockdown
He doesn't know any more than we do about the actual data around Nu. He's is tw@t who wanted to vaccinate the world rather than our teenagers and is partly responsible for our high case rates these last 4 months.
Well of course had we vaccinated the world (who are at high risk) instead of our teenagers (low risk), then perhaps this variant would have been stopped in its tracks.
Except that this is bollocks. South Africa has had plenty of vaccines. It sold off its AZ because its government is stupid, it can't get jabs into arms because too many of the people believe antivax nonsense
There is no lack of vax in SA
"The psychology of vaccine hesitancy and refusal - Once South Africa secured adequate amounts of vaccines, we were faced with a baffling dilemma. Not everyone wanted to take it"
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
Not if I moved to Scotland and therefore had a vote in Scotland and blocked it too, as Carnyx and I would then be the only residents of Scotland left too on this hypothesis as well as the only people left in the UK
You'll be moving in your own personal tank I suppose?
A personal tank is a "tankette", iirc.
HYUFD is Gruber in his little tank.
Ha ha - that was exactly the name I was trying, but failing, to remember.
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
I know this is a silly conversation but:
Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?
As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?
Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?
If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.
Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
I know this is a silly conversation but:
Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?
As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?
Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?
If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.
Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
One of them will necessarily succeed to the throne, presumably.
What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!
The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
And the Austrian, Belgian and Dutch outbreaks all appear to have taken off at around the same time, but have been even more dramatic.
However, the likelihood of this having been caused by a super-variant that has, somehow, miraculously avoided doing any harm to the UK or Sweden, seems remote.
It's likely the consequence of different approaches to pandemic management, coupled with variations in the timing of delivery of vaccinations to the elderly.
It's noticeable that the German spikes started very much on the borders with Austria and Czechia, and it has since spread across the country. Yes those areas have higher unvaccinated rates, but now the Saarland has a very high case rate - with a relatively low unvaccinated rate. I would be very surprised if this new variant was causing the latest spikes and nobody had noticed, it's probably just how waves tend to go, but it's still curious.
Last Thursday's report here: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2021-11-25.pdf?__blob=publicationFile seems to show that in calendar week 45 all 1713 of the sequencing done on randomly chosen positive PCR tests were Delta, and none were Alpha, Beta, Gamma, My, or Lambda. But it's interesting that that number (1713) is about half the number of previous weeks - which were also almost all Delta. I'm not sure why there would be such a big drop in the amount of random sequencing done from one week to the next. It also seems odd - unless labs were so overwhelmed with tests that there was less time for sequencing?
Any country that has restrictions twelve months after vaccines became available has failed. Dismally.
If there's any restrictions reintroduced into England (and I don't mean the silly Smarkets market) then the 1922 needs to give the PM the revolver and whiskey.
Imagine if your last dram wasn't even Scotch.
I knew someone would pick that up! I can never remember which is which.
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
I know this is a silly conversation but:
Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?
As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?
Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?
If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.
Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
Until 2023/24 no general election would need to be held so there would still be a Tory government. However as the only Tory left in the UK I would have long before become an MP in a by election and effectively be the UK PM and Cabinet (say appointed by the Monarch in one of their last acts), my last act before Carnyx and I are eaten by dogs (if dogs are not dead too) would therefore be to deny indyref2 again
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth if Nu proves deadly and vaccine resistant (which hopefully it won't), I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation until my dying breath
Sounds like the beginning of a beautiful, if dystopian, love story.
Nerdy Epping Forest obsessive is gradually worn down by the rough hewn charms of a wild Scottish catenach.
'No, not if you were the last man on earth!'
'Och, I am the last man on earth. Wait till I take you up Glen Coe.'
What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!
The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
And the Austrian, Belgian and Dutch outbreaks all appear to have taken off at around the same time, but have been even more dramatic.
However, the likelihood of this having been caused by a super-variant that has, somehow, miraculously avoided doing any harm to the UK or Sweden, seems remote.
It's likely the consequence of different approaches to pandemic management, coupled with variations in the timing of delivery of vaccinations to the elderly.
Maybe, maybe not. We have consistently seen waves hit at different times, even within the UK. It is all about seeding and the density of that seeding / the super spreader.
Sorry, but the inference that a superplague has ravaged a large chunk of Europe (including Denmark, which has a very strong analytical capability and would've already seen the variant if it had become established,) then teleported directly to Ireland without scything through Britain along the way, is piffle.
I think we can all be at least 99.9975% certain that Austria is not back in lockdown because a tour party from Salzburg returned from South Africa a few weeks ago harbouring mutant plague.
Northern Ireland coronavirus rates on a par with Germany, and cases in the rest of the UK have been rising. And as I say we have seen different regions spike at different times.
I am not saying it is uniquely the new variant, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is helping super charge ontop of the different time of unlocking, the lack of boosters, etc. Germany cases in recent days has got nuts, and they have high vaccination rate (compared to Austria).
Case rates are on the rise, but the increase is only substantial in children and they're falling amongst the elderly. UK deaths have been in steady decline for the last three weeks, whilst they've been rising over a comparable period in much of continental Europe.
If the variant has been around for long enough to spread thoroughly around Europe (and I don't believe it has or else we would've spotted it) then we can at least, however, be reassured that it must be a very limited threat. If it were significantly more transmissible and lethal than Delta, then the pattern being followed by the illness on our wet little island would not continue to be so obviously different to that elsewhere. We'd have been swept up in the latest plague spike too.
What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!
The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
And the Austrian, Belgian and Dutch outbreaks all appear to have taken off at around the same time, but have been even more dramatic.
However, the likelihood of this having been caused by a super-variant that has, somehow, miraculously avoided doing any harm to the UK or Sweden, seems remote.
It's likely the consequence of different approaches to pandemic management, coupled with variations in the timing of delivery of vaccinations to the elderly.
Maybe, maybe not. We have consistently seen waves hit at different times, even within the UK. It is all about seeding and the density of that seeding / the super spreader.
Sorry, but the inference that a superplague has ravaged a large chunk of Europe (including Denmark, which has a very strong analytical capability and would've already seen the variant if it had become established,) then teleported directly to Ireland without scything through Britain along the way, is piffle.
I think we can all be at least 99.9975% certain that Austria is not back in lockdown because a tour party from Salzburg returned from South Africa a few weeks ago harbouring mutant plague.
It's unlikely, but it is not 99.9975% unlikely
As Max says, was anyone in Europe looking for this anomaly, in the special type of PCR test that picks up the Nu? How do we know?
We've only been truly aware of this variant for about 24 hours, it is ridiculous. And already we have 4 cases in Israel, 2 in Belgium
There may be some Nunu at work already, in Europe, indeed there must be
The Netherlands sticks out as the one to watch. They do little to no sequencing but their rise in cases has been pretty startling from the beginning of October to now. Though it could just be winter+less immunity.
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
Not if I moved to Scotland and therefore had a vote in Scotland and blocked it too, as Carnyx and I would then be the only residents of Scotland left too on this hypothesis as well as the only people left in the UK
You'll be moving in your own personal tank I suppose?
A personal tank is a "tankette", iirc.
HYUFD is Gruber in his little tank.
Ha ha - that was exactly the name I was trying, but failing, to remember.
Had never heard of Gruber. Not a tank but an armoured car, I find on checking. Leichter Panzerspähwagen rtather than Panzerkampfwagen. Though the distinction is perhaps moot - at least one armoured car had tracks which it could lower for cross country work.
Any country that has restrictions twelve months after vaccines became available has failed. Dismally.
If there's any restrictions reintroduced into England (and I don't mean the silly Smarkets market) then the 1922 needs to give the PM the revolver and whiskey.
Imagine if your last dram wasn't even Scotch.
I knew someone would pick that up! I can never remember which is which.
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
"THE SNP’s depute leader has claimed “the future of our planet” depends on Scottish independence."
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
"THE SNP’s depute leader has claimed “the future of our planet” depends on Scottish independence."
What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!
The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
And the Austrian, Belgian and Dutch outbreaks all appear to have taken off at around the same time, but have been even more dramatic.
However, the likelihood of this having been caused by a super-variant that has, somehow, miraculously avoided doing any harm to the UK or Sweden, seems remote.
It's likely the consequence of different approaches to pandemic management, coupled with variations in the timing of delivery of vaccinations to the elderly.
Maybe, maybe not. We have consistently seen waves hit at different times, even within the UK. It is all about seeding and the density of that seeding / the super spreader.
Sorry, but the inference that a superplague has ravaged a large chunk of Europe (including Denmark, which has a very strong analytical capability and would've already seen the variant if it had become established,) then teleported directly to Ireland without scything through Britain along the way, is piffle.
I think we can all be at least 99.9975% certain that Austria is not back in lockdown because a tour party from Salzburg returned from South Africa a few weeks ago harbouring mutant plague.
Northern Ireland coronavirus rates on a par with Germany, and cases in the rest of the UK have been rising. And as I say we have seen different regions spike at different times.
I am not saying it is uniquely the new variant, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is helping super charge ontop of the different time of unlocking, the lack of boosters, etc. Germany cases in recent days has got nuts, and they have high vaccination rate (compared to Austria).
Case rates are on the rise, but the increase is only substantial in children and they're falling amongst the elderly. UK deaths have been in steady decline for the last three weeks, whilst they've been rising over a comparable period in much of continental Europe.
If the variant has been around for long enough to spread thoroughly around Europe (and I don't believe it has or else we would've spotted it) then we can at least, however, be reassured that it must be a very limited threat. If it were significantly more transmissible and lethal than Delta, then the pattern being followed by the illness on our wet little island would not continue to be so obviously different to that elsewhere. We'd have been swept up in the latest plague spike too.
They are saying cases identified from 2 weeks ago in Belgium. That's long enough to start to hit case numbers without deaths e.g. its clearly rampant in SA, deaths not up significantly yet. As I say, we have seen this loads of times already, certain regions or groups gets blasted why not one close to it doesn't initially e.g. North vs South Italy or spread from young to old.
I am not even saying it is everywhere in Europe, more I am wondering if this has added fuel to the fire of the other factors. You get a few super spreaders in certain towns, and viola you can add 1000s of extra cases in no time, and that was with just Delta. We saw that with the importation of Delta to UK, which was initially just areas with high Indian populations.
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
I know this is a silly conversation but:
Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?
As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?
Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?
If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.
Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
Until 2023/24 no general election would need to be held so there would still be a Tory government. However as the only Tory left in the UK I would have long before become an MP in a by election and effectively be the UK PM and Cabinet (say appointed by the Monarch in one of their last acts), my last act before Carnyx and I are eaten by dogs (if dogs are not dead too) would therefore be to deny indyref2 again
It's the sheer arrogance of your assumption that your vote overrides anyone else's that astounds me.
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
I know this is a silly conversation but:
Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?
As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?
Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?
If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.
Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
Until 2023/24 no general election would need to be held so there would still be a Tory government. However as the only Tory left in the UK I would have long before become an MP in a by election and effectively be the UK PM and Cabinet (say appointed by the Monarch in one of their last acts), my last act before Carnyx and I are eaten by dogs (if dogs are not dead too) would therefore be to deny indyref2 again
I'm seriously worried at your ignorance of the "British" constitution. No MPs or Lords = no government of any ilk. IMmediate election.
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
"THE SNP’s depute leader has claimed “the future of our planet” depends on Scottish independence."
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
I know this is a silly conversation but:
Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?
As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?
Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?
If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.
Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
Until 2023/24 no general election would need to be held so there would still be a Tory government. However as the only Tory left in the UK I would have long before become an MP in a by election and effectively be the UK PM and Cabinet (say appointed by the Monarch in one of their last acts), my last act before Carnyx and I are eaten by dogs (if dogs are not dead too) would therefore be to deny indyref2 again
I'm seriously worried at your ignorance of the "British" constitution. No MPs or Lords = no government of any ilk. IMmediate election.
I thought HM appointed the government. It's just convention they are in Parliament.
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
"THE SNP’s depute leader has claimed “the future of our planet” depends on Scottish independence."
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
I know this is a silly conversation but:
Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?
As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?
Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?
If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.
Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
Until 2023/24 no general election would need to be held so there would still be a Tory government. However as the only Tory left in the UK I would have long before become an MP in a by election and effectively be the UK PM and Cabinet (say appointed by the Monarch in one of their last acts), my last act before Carnyx and I are eaten by dogs (if dogs are not dead too) would therefore be to deny indyref2 again
I'm seriously worried at your ignorance of the "British" constitution. No MPs or Lords = no government of any ilk. IMmediate election.
I would have been elected in a by election and appointed PM by the monarch in one of their last acts in this scenario
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
I know this is a silly conversation but:
Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?
As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?
Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?
If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.
Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
Until 2023/24 no general election would need to be held so there would still be a Tory government. However as the only Tory left in the UK I would have long before become an MP in a by election and effectively be the UK PM and Cabinet (say appointed by the Monarch in one of their last acts), my last act before Carnyx and I are eaten by dogs (if dogs are not dead too) would therefore be to deny indyref2 again
It's the sheer arrogance of your assumption that your vote overrides anyone else's that astounds me.
The UK government's vote overrides everything else on the Union and by this point as the only Tory left in the UK I would have been appointed by the Monarch in one of their last acts to see out the Tory UK government's term
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
I know this is a silly conversation but:
Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?
As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?
Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?
If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.
Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
Until 2023/24 no general election would need to be held so there would still be a Tory government. However as the only Tory left in the UK I would have long before become an MP in a by election and effectively be the UK PM and Cabinet
I thought you understood how politics works. If the MPs die there'd need to be a by-election to replace them. There's nothing to say there'd be a Tory government if all the Tory MPs have died.
Let alone who'd be returning officer for by-elections if everyone's dead - nor who the Speaker or Monarch could be either.
Any country that has restrictions twelve months after vaccines became available has failed. Dismally.
If there's any restrictions reintroduced into England (and I don't mean the silly Smarkets market) then the 1922 needs to give the PM the revolver and whiskey.
Imagine if your last dram wasn't even Scotch.
I knew someone would pick that up! I can never remember which is which.
Perhaps true to character, I much prefer rum.
You're a rum character?
LOL! I was more thinking of the pirate persona. ☠️
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
I know this is a silly conversation but:
Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?
As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?
Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?
If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.
Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
Until 2023/24 no general election would need to be held so there would still be a Tory government. However as the only Tory left in the UK I would have long before become an MP in a by election and effectively be the UK PM and Cabinet (say appointed by the Monarch in one of their last acts), my last act before Carnyx and I are eaten by dogs (if dogs are not dead too) would therefore be to deny indyref2 again
Can't fault this on the logic. One of your very best posts on Scottish independence.
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
I know this is a silly conversation but:
Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?
As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?
Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?
If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.
Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
Until 2023/24 no general election would need to be held so there would still be a Tory government. However as the only Tory left in the UK I would have long before become an MP in a by election and effectively be the UK PM and Cabinet
I thought you understood how politics works. If the MPs die there'd need to be a by-election to replace them. There's nothing to say there'd be a Tory government if all the Tory MPs have died.
Let alone who'd be returning officer for by-elections if everyone's dead - nor who the Speaker or Monarch could be either.
The monarch would obviously be King Henry IX, although that would be an academic matter. The empty land would quickly be taken over by newly-arrived Eritrean boat people.
Earlier on we decided that the metrics to watch were deaths and hospitalisations in South Africa. If they tick up, then we have a problem
OK. Deaths. It could be a statistical glitch but deaths are up, quite significantly. For a while SA has been reporting deaths in the 0-20 range, with the odd leap to 40 or whatever. Yesterday there were 114 deaths, that's definitely out of whack. But deaths are a lagging indicator, as we all know, and the data is meagre, as the Nunu has only been bothering SA for a few weeks.
Hospitalisations? There too the evidence is slight, but noticeable. They are rising, after months of quiet
There were 134 weekly admissions in week 2021:45, a fortnight later in 2021:47 (the last reported), there have been 366 admissions - nearly tripling. It looks very much like the classic early stage of an exponential curve. See here:
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
I know this is a silly conversation but:
Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?
As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?
Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?
If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.
Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
Until 2023/24 no general election would need to be held so there would still be a Tory government. However as the only Tory left in the UK I would have long before become an MP in a by election and effectively be the UK PM and Cabinet (say appointed by the Monarch in one of their last acts), my last act before Carnyx and I are eaten by dogs (if dogs are not dead too) would therefore be to deny indyref2 again
Can't fault this on the logic. One of your very best posts on Scottish independence.
Which of course indicates the quality of his more routine postings on the matter.
What's up peeps.....all ready for the incoming armageddon...teenage mutant ninja covid is already in Belgium. Hope you are all stocked up on bog roll!
The Belgian case returned from Egypt on the 11th November, so the new variant has been spreading for weeks now. It would be very surprising if there are not already cases in the UK.
Makes you wonder about that enormous spike in Germany.
And the Austrian, Belgian and Dutch outbreaks all appear to have taken off at around the same time, but have been even more dramatic.
However, the likelihood of this having been caused by a super-variant that has, somehow, miraculously avoided doing any harm to the UK or Sweden, seems remote.
It's likely the consequence of different approaches to pandemic management, coupled with variations in the timing of delivery of vaccinations to the elderly.
Maybe, maybe not. We have consistently seen waves hit at different times, even within the UK. It is all about seeding and the density of that seeding / the super spreader.
Sorry, but the inference that a superplague has ravaged a large chunk of Europe (including Denmark, which has a very strong analytical capability and would've already seen the variant if it had become established,) then teleported directly to Ireland without scything through Britain along the way, is piffle.
I think we can all be at least 99.9975% certain that Austria is not back in lockdown because a tour party from Salzburg returned from South Africa a few weeks ago harbouring mutant plague.
It's unlikely, but it is not 99.9975% unlikely
As Max says, was anyone in Europe looking for this anomaly, in the special type of PCR test that picks up the Nu? How do we know?
We've only been truly aware of this variant for about 24 hours, it is ridiculous. And already we have 4 cases in Israel, 2 in Belgium
There may be some Nunu at work already, in Europe, indeed there must be
The Netherlands sticks out as the one to watch. They do little to no sequencing but their rise in cases has been pretty startling from the beginning of October to now. Though it could just be winter+less immunity.
Yep. And of course the strong links with South Africa. I would be unsurprised if they have quite a lot of NOO
Earlier on we decided that the metrics to watch were deaths and hospitalisations in South Africa. If they tick up, then we have a problem
OK. Deaths. It could be a statistical glitch but deaths are up, quite significantly. For a while SA has been reporting deaths in the 0-20 range, with the odd leap to 40 or whatever. Yesterday there were 114 deaths, that's definitely out of whack. But deaths are a lagging indicator, as we all know, and the data is meagre, as the Nunu has only been bothering SA for a few weeks.
Hospitalisations? There too the evidence is slight, but noticeable. They are rising, after months of quiet
There were 134 weekly admissions in week 2021:45, a fortnight later in 2021:47 (the last reported), there have been 366 admissions - nearly tripling. It looks very much like the classic early stage of an exponential curve. See here:
Given how many major governments are reacting and reacting so quickly, I think it is clear all their scientists are telling them Houston we have a serious problem. Normally we get this drip drip of change of course from different governments at different times.
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
I know this is a silly conversation but:
Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?
As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?
Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?
If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.
Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
Until 2023/24 no general election would need to be held so there would still be a Tory government. However as the only Tory left in the UK I would have long before become an MP in a by election and effectively be the UK PM and Cabinet
I thought you understood how politics works. If the MPs die there'd need to be a by-election to replace them. There's nothing to say there'd be a Tory government if all the Tory MPs have died.
Let alone who'd be returning officer for by-elections if everyone's dead - nor who the Speaker or Monarch could be either.
All the Labour, LD and SNP MPs would have died too. The presumption is I am not only the only Tory left in the UK but the only other person left alive in the UK other than Carnyx who is by this point FM of Scotland on the same logic that I am UK PM
What chances do we put on UK going down to another (not) lockdown, but WFH, no non-essential travel, limited mixing of households etc etc etc in the next few weeks?
Earlier on we decided that the metrics to watch were deaths and hospitalisations in South Africa. If they tick up, then we have a problem
OK. Deaths. It could be a statistical glitch but deaths are up, quite significantly. For a while SA has been reporting deaths in the 0-20 range, with the odd leap to 40 or whatever. Yesterday there were 114 deaths, that's definitely out of whack. But deaths are a lagging indicator, as we all know, and the data is meagre, as the Nunu has only been bothering SA for a few weeks.
Hospitalisations? There too the evidence is slight, but noticeable. They are rising, after months of quiet
There were 134 weekly admissions in week 2021:45, a fortnight later in 2021:47 (the last reported), there have been 366 admissions - nearly tripling. It looks very much like the classic early stage of an exponential curve. See here:
Given how many major governments are reacting and reacting so quickly, I think it is clear all their scientists are telling them Houston we have a serious problem. Normally we get this drip drip of change of course from different governments are different times.
Yep. Unfortunately. But yep
I am still haunted by Javid's terrified eyes last night, after his Emergency Cabinet Meeting. That was the face of a man who has just heard some scary shit
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
I know this is a silly conversation but:
Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?
As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?
Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?
If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.
Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
Until 2023/24 no general election would need to be held so there would still be a Tory government. However as the only Tory left in the UK I would have long before become an MP in a by election and effectively be the UK PM and Cabinet
I thought you understood how politics works. If the MPs die there'd need to be a by-election to replace them. There's nothing to say there'd be a Tory government if all the Tory MPs have died.
Let alone who'd be returning officer for by-elections if everyone's dead - nor who the Speaker or Monarch could be either.
All the Labour, LD and SNP MPs would have died too. The presumption is I am not only the only Tory left in the UK but the only other person left alive in the UK other than Carnyx who is by this point FM of Scotland on the same logic
I could just as well be PM.
It's your persistent assumption that other people's votes are worth less than yours I find deeply disturbing. I'll go off and do something calming like talk tyo MattW some more about what to do with dead bodies. Much nicer to contemplate.
Any country that has restrictions twelve months after vaccines became available has failed. Dismally.
If there's any restrictions reintroduced into England (and I don't mean the silly Smarkets market) then the 1922 needs to give the PM the revolver and whiskey.
If (which thankfully seems unlikely) a new variant is sufficiently new that it renders the vaccines effectively ineffective, then to all intents and purposes we're in a new pandemic, with a new virus and no vaccines. Not much a PM could do to avoid that scenario.
Otherwise I agree with you, though I think the failures last winter were sufficient to give the PM the heave-ho already.
What chances do we put on UK going down to another (not) lockdown, but WFH, no non-essential travel, limited mixing of households etc etc etc in the next few weeks?
What chances do we put on UK going down to another (not) lockdown, but WFH, no non-essential travel, limited mixing of households etc etc etc in the next few weeks?
The Government won't move until after the festive season. If it does anything after that then my guess would be that variant Covid would be acting as convenient cover for the NHS being unable to cope with flu, which is what concerns me more than the latest scare.
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
You were posting about UberEats earlier.
Yes, but I didn't suggest to Mike that he make my Ubereats experience a PB header
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
I know this is a silly conversation but:
Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?
As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?
Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?
If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.
Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
Until 2023/24 no general election would need to be held so there would still be a Tory government. However as the only Tory left in the UK I would have long before become an MP in a by election and effectively be the UK PM and Cabinet
I thought you understood how politics works. If the MPs die there'd need to be a by-election to replace them. There's nothing to say there'd be a Tory government if all the Tory MPs have died.
Let alone who'd be returning officer for by-elections if everyone's dead - nor who the Speaker or Monarch could be either.
All the Labour, LD and SNP MPs would have died too. The presumption is I am not only the only Tory left in the UK but the only other person left alive in the UK other than Carnyx who is by this point FM of Scotland on the same logic that I am UK PM
Its a ridiculous assumption but either way . . . you'd have no monarch, no army, no HMRC, no Speaker, no Cabinet, no Courts and no Parliament.
If Carnyx holds a referendum which unanimously says Scotland is independent, then how are you going to overturn that without a military or courts or anything else?
The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.
Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.
The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.
The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.
Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.
Earlier on we decided that the metrics to watch were deaths and hospitalisations in South Africa. If they tick up, then we have a problem
OK. Deaths. It could be a statistical glitch but deaths are up, quite significantly. For a while SA has been reporting deaths in the 0-20 range, with the odd leap to 40 or whatever. Yesterday there were 114 deaths, that's definitely out of whack. But deaths are a lagging indicator, as we all know, and the data is meagre, as the Nunu has only been bothering SA for a few weeks.
Hospitalisations? There too the evidence is slight, but noticeable. They are rising, after months of quiet
There were 134 weekly admissions in week 2021:45, a fortnight later in 2021:47 (the last reported), there have been 366 admissions - nearly tripling. It looks very much like the classic early stage of an exponential curve. See here:
Given how many major governments are reacting and reacting so quickly, I think it is clear all their scientists are telling them Houston we have a serious problem. Normally we get this drip drip of change of course from different governments at different times.
I think it's also because all of them can see Christmas on the horizon and don't want to take any risks with having any lockdowns. People's patience has simple run out and they know locking people up for a second successive Christmas away from family and friends is going to be a huge vote loser.
IMO there is a race to hit 35m third doses in three weeks, that's 19m more than we've currently done. It's absolutely possible but it will need someone like Javid to be that bull in the china shop and tell the NHS to get everything sped up, double jabbing capacity, bring forwards eligibility for all over 18s, tell the JCVI to get fucked if they moan about it.
What chances do we put on UK going down to another (not) lockdown, but WFH, no non-essential travel, limited mixing of households etc etc etc in the next few weeks?
Zero.
This is Boris we are talking about not Margaret Thatcher ;-)
Mr. Boy, there's a world of difference between sexual orientation and kinks, which vary from "gosh, feet" all the way to "I want to literally carve my name into your back with a knife".
People who are into stuff absolutely across the line (paedophilia, necrophilia etc) should be shamed to deter the odds on them grouping up with others and creating a support network for such behaviour, and to encourage them to seek help or just restrain themselves.
Shaming someone for being into S&M is daft (and counterproductive if they're into humiliation), but some things are unacceptable and pretending otherwise is damned silly.
Why is necrophilia 'absolutely across the line'? If I am willing to let my body (post death) be used for others amusement, why should that be prohibited?
How do you see matters of consent wrt necrophilia?
Would you require consent from relatives? Before death from the victim / recipient? Or do you consider that nobody owns a corpse, so you can do what you like with it, as you could with a clump of grass from the roadside?
(Do we have laws about what you can do to the body of a dead animal / pet, or is that based on respecting the value of the relationship between the pet and the owner?)
I was surprised at the vehemence of the reaction to the recent cases of abuse of bodies in morgues, and I could not tell quite who was doing the objecting - ordinary people, tabloid outrage buses, or some sort of establishment. Listening to the terminology of "abuse" and "victims" being used, and who it was being applied to, was quite an eye opener.
But there is not very much clear philosophical thinking about our relationships with the dead.
I have had a practice of going to visit the bodies of dead relatives for many years following a decision I made in my early 20s, but the general populace is still remarkably resistant to thinking about such questions.
In a society where many are happy killing an unborn child/fetus up until the moment of birth I'd hope for a bit more clarity of thought.
I'm more familiar with the history of the use of bodies for dissection, which raises some of the wider issues. A few of my forebears would have been dug up and dissected on statistical chance given their residences in or near Edinburgh. In Scotland (not sure about England) it was not possible to own a corpse (presuimably cos the owner was no longer there to claim it, so to speak). So there was no crime of theft of a body from a grave. But the grave clothes were thievable so careful resurrectionists stipped the body on the spot and left the clothes behind.
This was superseded by legakl changes which directed that unclaimed bodies in the workhouse, etc., went to the medics. 1832, I think? The nasty trick was that 'claim' meant 'claim a body because I can afford to pay for a fguneral' - so basically the poor, whose rewlatives were also poor, ended up getting what was seen as a criminal's fate. And hence the working class obsession wityh saving enough money for a funeral. (Some years ago I was very surprised to find that a very elderly honorary granny of mine, who had been in a home for years and who left everything to me, nevertheless had just enough to pay her funeral. I'd have been happy to pay it myself!)
The books and papers by Ruth Richardson are particulary good. Though I don't think they go into necrophilia.
I liked the books on the workhouse - still there apparently - and Grays' as well as the main one on dissection - which of course is covered to some extent in the other two.
The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.
Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.
The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.
The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.
Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.
Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....
I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
Earlier on we decided that the metrics to watch were deaths and hospitalisations in South Africa. If they tick up, then we have a problem
OK. Deaths. It could be a statistical glitch but deaths are up, quite significantly. For a while SA has been reporting deaths in the 0-20 range, with the odd leap to 40 or whatever. Yesterday there were 114 deaths, that's definitely out of whack. But deaths are a lagging indicator, as we all know, and the data is meagre, as the Nunu has only been bothering SA for a few weeks.
Hospitalisations? There too the evidence is slight, but noticeable. They are rising, after months of quiet
There were 134 weekly admissions in week 2021:45, a fortnight later in 2021:47 (the last reported), there have been 366 admissions - nearly tripling. It looks very much like the classic early stage of an exponential curve. See here:
Given how many major governments are reacting and reacting so quickly, I think it is clear all their scientists are telling them Houston we have a serious problem. Normally we get this drip drip of change of course from different governments at different times.
I think it's also because all of them can see Christmas on the horizon and don't want to take any risks with having any lockdowns. People's patience has simple run out and they know locking people up for a second successive Christmas away from family and friends is going to be a huge vote loser.
IMO there is a race to hit 35m third doses in three weeks, that's 19m more than we've currently done. It's absolutely possible but it will need someone like Javid to be that bull in the china shop and tell the NHS to get everything sped up, double jabbing capacity, bring forwards eligibility for all over 18s, tell the JCVI to get fucked if they moan about it.
Plus its not necessarily a bad thing if a bit of unnecessary media hysteria drives people into getting their boosters.
Extend boosters to under-50s and I'll have one. I'm still not putting a mask on though.
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
I know this is a silly conversation but:
Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?
As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?
Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?
If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.
Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
Until 2023/24 no general election would need to be held so there would still be a Tory government. However as the only Tory left in the UK I would have long before become an MP in a by election and effectively be the UK PM and Cabinet
I thought you understood how politics works. If the MPs die there'd need to be a by-election to replace them. There's nothing to say there'd be a Tory government if all the Tory MPs have died.
Let alone who'd be returning officer for by-elections if everyone's dead - nor who the Speaker or Monarch could be either.
All the Labour, LD and SNP MPs would have died too. The presumption is I am not only the only Tory left in the UK but the only other person left alive in the UK other than Carnyx who is by this point FM of Scotland on the same logic that I am UK PM
Its a ridiculous assumption but either way . . . you'd have no monarch, no army, no HMRC, no Speaker, no Cabinet, no Courts and no Parliament.
If Carnyx holds a referendum which unanimously says Scotland is independent, then how are you going to overturn that without a military or courts or anything else?
If HYUFD moves to Scotland the indyref will be a tie, unless he boycotts it
Any country that has restrictions twelve months after vaccines became available has failed. Dismally.
If there's any restrictions reintroduced into England (and I don't mean the silly Smarkets market) then the 1922 needs to give the PM the revolver and whiskey.
Imagine if your last dram wasn't even Scotch.
I knew someone would pick that up! I can never remember which is which.
Perhaps true to character, I much prefer rum.
In a fit of enthusiasm I once bought some rum in an attempt to mix up some grog, as per the Aubrey and Maturin books. Experiment was not a success.
I think we managed to find a use for the remaining rum in making some enhanced custard, or something similar.
What chances do we put on UK going down to another (not) lockdown, but WFH, no non-essential travel, limited mixing of households etc etc etc in the next few weeks?
Zero.
This is Boris we are talking about not Margaret Thatcher ;-)
What I'm saying is, there is no chance of the government being pre-emptive. If restrictions come back, it would be hard lockdown in a panic. And I don't think that's a bad thing, actually. If we'd brought in measures a few weeks ago, the lockdown zealots would have gone "see! see! that's why cases are falling".
I have very little specialist knowledge of the science behind Covid, or on the respective vaccines, but the accountant/stats nerd within me remains frustrated at the lack of transparent data that seems to be available.
The most obvious question regarding this latest variant is, as a couple have already asked, whether the explosion in cases has translated in any way to hospitalisations. Is there any data available from South Africa or elsewhere that answers this question?
In many ways, a hugely virulent variant but one that is mild in nature and did not lead to high numbers of hospitalisations and deaths could be seen as not entirely negative. The fact that there have been no reports on hospitalisations leads me to be optimistic on this (given the media's constant desire to doom-monger), but I'd like to see some data.
The other statistic that I'd like to see is hospitalisations and deaths among the vaccinated broken down between AZ, Pfizer and Moderna. I'd read a couple of articles suggesting that one of the reasons behind the UK's relative recent success relative to continental Europe might be that the AZ vaccine offered better protection than did Pfizer or Moderna. I'd like to see more data on this - my view from the beginning of the vaccination programme is that (a) Pfizer's PR team have been incredibly slick, especially compared to AZ, (b) AZ made themselves very unpopular with their competition by offering their vaccine at cost price, and (c) as a result of (a) and (b) much of the press coverage against AZ has been unfairly biased against it. Again, I'd like to see some data.
If there is any such data out there, any direction from my fellow PBers would be much appreciated.
I have very little specialist knowledge of the science behind Covid, or on the respective vaccines, but the accountant/stats nerd within me remains frustrated at the lack of transparent data that seems to be available.
The most obvious question regarding this latest variant is, as a couple have already asked, whether the explosion in cases has translated in any way to hospitalisations. Is there any data available from South Africa or elsewhere that answers this question?
In many ways, a hugely virulent variant but one that is mild in nature and did not lead to high numbers of hospitalisations and deaths could be seen as not entirely negative. The fact that there have been no reports on hospitalisations leads me to be optimistic on this (given the media's constant desire to doom-monger), but I'd like to see some data.
The other statistic that I'd like to see is hospitalisations and deaths among the vaccinated broken down between AZ, Pfizer and Moderna. I'd read a couple of articles suggesting that one of the reasons behind the UK's relative recent success relative to continental Europe might be that the AZ vaccine offered better protection than did Pfizer or Moderna. I'd like to see more data on this - my view from the beginning of the vaccination programme is that (a) Pfizer's PR team have been incredibly slick, especially compared to AZ, (b) AZ made themselves very unpopular with their competition by offering their vaccine at cost price, and (c) as a result of (a) and (b) much of the press coverage against AZ has been unfairly biased against it. Again, I'd like to see some data.
If there is any such data out there, any direction from my fellow PBers would be much appreciated.
I just posted the SA data. See below. And yes there is some cause for concern
The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.
Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.
The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.
The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.
Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.
Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....
I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
I was under the presumption that you needed to be vaccinated to be able to travel in and out of all European countries?
Edit:- I think some say vaccinated or recovered from covid right? I presume this case might be a reinfection, which from the evidence of Beta variant that was a big concern that it was fairly easy to get reinfected with this variant after having had one of the other ones.
What chances do we put on UK going down to another (not) lockdown, but WFH, no non-essential travel, limited mixing of households etc etc etc in the next few weeks?
Zero.
This is Boris we are talking about not Margaret Thatcher ;-)
What I'm saying is, there is no chance of the government being pre-emptive. If restrictions come back, it would be hard lockdown in a panic. And I don't think that's a bad thing, actually. If we'd brought in measures a few weeks ago, the lockdown zealots would have gone "see! see! that's why cases are falling".
Oh they definitely won't pre-emptive one for the reasons you give and second Christmas. I was thinking more after Christmas.
Can anybody recall what time of day South Africa reports its daily COVID numbers, I keep on pressing 'refresh on the tab with wouldmeater on it' then realised the knowledge bank on PB would probably know!
Earlier on we decided that the metrics to watch were deaths and hospitalisations in South Africa. If they tick up, then we have a problem
OK. Deaths. It could be a statistical glitch but deaths are up, quite significantly. For a while SA has been reporting deaths in the 0-20 range, with the odd leap to 40 or whatever. Yesterday there were 114 deaths, that's definitely out of whack. But deaths are a lagging indicator, as we all know, and the data is meagre, as the Nunu has only been bothering SA for a few weeks.
Hospitalisations? There too the evidence is slight, but noticeable. They are rising, after months of quiet
There were 134 weekly admissions in week 2021:45, a fortnight later in 2021:47 (the last reported), there have been 366 admissions - nearly tripling. It looks very much like the classic early stage of an exponential curve. See here:
Given how many major governments are reacting and reacting so quickly, I think it is clear all their scientists are telling them Houston we have a serious problem. Normally we get this drip drip of change of course from different governments at different times.
I think it's also because all of them can see Christmas on the horizon and don't want to take any risks with having any lockdowns. People's patience has simple run out and they know locking people up for a second successive Christmas away from family and friends is going to be a huge vote loser.
IMO there is a race to hit 35m third doses in three weeks, that's 19m more than we've currently done. It's absolutely possible but it will need someone like Javid to be that bull in the china shop and tell the NHS to get everything sped up, double jabbing capacity, bring forwards eligibility for all over 18s, tell the JCVI to get fucked if they moan about it.
On the first point, yes, that's very plausible. Besides which, unless any new variant is both confirmed to be widespread and clinically proven to bring about an agonizing and gory death for all those who catch it, most of the population would ignore any new stay at home order. The state can compel businesses to shut, but it doesn't have the capacity to enforce house arrest, and everybody barring the very frightened is thoroughly fucked off with that nonsense.
On the second point, it would be nice if one didn't have to wait the full six months for the booster but I doubt that's going to change. More chance of extending the program to cover all adults though.
The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.
Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.
The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.
The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.
Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.
Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....
I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
I was under the presumption that you needed to be vaccinated to be able to travel in and out of all European countries?
Edit:- I think some say vaccinated or recovered from covid right? I presume this case might be a reinfection, which from the evidence of Beta variant that was a big concern that it was fairly easy to get reinfected with this variant after having had one of the other ones.
Exactly. How can you possibly get on a plane without proving you are jabbed? Fuck that shit
Can anybody recall what time of day South Africa reports its daily COVID numbers, I keep on pressing 'refresh on the tab with wouldmeater on it' then realised the knowledge bank on PB would probably know!
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
I know this is a silly conversation but:
Why would you be PM and not Carnyx?
As all Lords and MPs will be dead who decides who is PM?
Are you telling us you are an MP? How do you know Carnyx isn't an MP and elects himself PM as the majority party in the commons?
If not and you hold an election you will both get elected if in separate constituencies. If you stand in the same constituency you will have to draw straws and you might lose. How do you get your nomination papers signed so you can stand. I could go on forever with this nonsense.
Don't actually think you will decide. Think you will be more concerned about not getting eaten by dogs.
Until 2023/24 no general election would need to be held so there would still be a Tory government. However as the only Tory left in the UK I would have long before become an MP in a by election and effectively be the UK PM and Cabinet (say appointed by the Monarch in one of their last acts), my last act before Carnyx and I are eaten by dogs (if dogs are not dead too) would therefore be to deny indyref2 again
Can't fault this on the logic. One of your very best posts on Scottish independence.
Which of course indicates the quality of his more routine postings on the matter.
Well I do prefer 'H' on other topics. But, you know, in that world he constructs I've no doubt he would succeed in blocking a Sindy vote. You'd have to slay him and then go the UDI route.
The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.
Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.
The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.
The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.
Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.
Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....
I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
but arguably this is already the case with quarantine and testing rules which only apply to the unvaccinated.
Plus; the vaccinated can catch and spread the virus as has been established many times.
Earlier on we decided that the metrics to watch were deaths and hospitalisations in South Africa. If they tick up, then we have a problem
OK. Deaths. It could be a statistical glitch but deaths are up, quite significantly. For a while SA has been reporting deaths in the 0-20 range, with the odd leap to 40 or whatever. Yesterday there were 114 deaths, that's definitely out of whack. But deaths are a lagging indicator, as we all know, and the data is meagre, as the Nunu has only been bothering SA for a few weeks.
Hospitalisations? There too the evidence is slight, but noticeable. They are rising, after months of quiet
There were 134 weekly admissions in week 2021:45, a fortnight later in 2021:47 (the last reported), there have been 366 admissions - nearly tripling. It looks very much like the classic early stage of an exponential curve. See here:
Given how many major governments are reacting and reacting so quickly, I think it is clear all their scientists are telling them Houston we have a serious problem. Normally we get this drip drip of change of course from different governments at different times.
I think it's also because all of them can see Christmas on the horizon and don't want to take any risks with having any lockdowns. People's patience has simple run out and they know locking people up for a second successive Christmas away from family and friends is going to be a huge vote loser.
IMO there is a race to hit 35m third doses in three weeks, that's 19m more than we've currently done. It's absolutely possible but it will need someone like Javid to be that bull in the china shop and tell the NHS to get everything sped up, double jabbing capacity, bring forwards eligibility for all over 18s, tell the JCVI to get fucked if they moan about it.
Plus its not necessarily a bad thing if a bit of unnecessary media hysteria drives people into getting their boosters.
Extend boosters to under-50s and I'll have one. I'm still not putting a mask on though.
Boosters have already been extended to those of us in our forties, but we still have to wait the full six months since the second dose before we're allowed to have one.
Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine are assessing how effective their jab is against the new Covid-19 variant recently discovered in South Africa, according to the Reuters news agency. They will have more insight in two weeks time at the latest, when it receives further data from laboratory tests, according to Reuters.
Ukraine has uncovered a plot for an attempted coup with the involvement of Russians, due to have taken place next week, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said
Mr. Boy, there's a world of difference between sexual orientation and kinks, which vary from "gosh, feet" all the way to "I want to literally carve my name into your back with a knife".
People who are into stuff absolutely across the line (paedophilia, necrophilia etc) should be shamed to deter the odds on them grouping up with others and creating a support network for such behaviour, and to encourage them to seek help or just restrain themselves.
Shaming someone for being into S&M is daft (and counterproductive if they're into humiliation), but some things are unacceptable and pretending otherwise is damned silly.
Why is necrophilia 'absolutely across the line'? If I am willing to let my body (post death) be used for others amusement, why should that be prohibited?
How do you see matters of consent wrt necrophilia?
Would you require consent from relatives? Before death from the victim / recipient? Or do you consider that nobody owns a corpse, so you can do what you like with it, as you could with a clump of grass from the roadside?
(Do we have laws about what you can do to the body of a dead animal / pet, or is that based on respecting the value of the relationship between the pet and the owner?)
I was surprised at the vehemence of the reaction to the recent cases of abuse of bodies in morgues, and I could not tell quite who was doing the objecting - ordinary people, tabloid outrage buses, or some sort of establishment. Listening to the terminology of "abuse" and "victims" being used, and who it was being applied to, was quite an eye opener.
But there is not very much clear philosophical thinking about our relationships with the dead.
I have had a practice of going to visit the bodies of dead relatives for many years following a decision I made in my early 20s, but the general populace is still remarkably resistant to thinking about such questions.
In a society where many are happy killing an unborn child/fetus up until the moment of birth I'd hope for a bit more clarity of thought.
I'm more familiar with the history of the use of bodies for dissection, which raises some of the wider issues. A few of my forebears would have been dug up and dissected on statistical chance given their residences in or near Edinburgh. In Scotland (not sure about England) it was not possible to own a corpse (presuimably cos the owner was no longer there to claim it, so to speak). So there was no crime of theft of a body from a grave. But the grave clothes were thievable so careful resurrectionists stipped the body on the spot and left the clothes behind.
This was superseded by legakl changes which directed that unclaimed bodies in the workhouse, etc., went to the medics. 1832, I think? The nasty trick was that 'claim' meant 'claim a body because I can afford to pay for a fguneral' - so basically the poor, whose rewlatives were also poor, ended up getting what was seen as a criminal's fate. And hence the working class obsession wityh saving enough money for a funeral. (Some years ago I was very surprised to find that a very elderly honorary granny of mine, who had been in a home for years and who left everything to me, nevertheless had just enough to pay her funeral. I'd have been happy to pay it myself!)
The books and papers by Ruth Richardson are particulary good. Though I don't think they go into necrophilia.
I liked the books on the workhouse - still there apparently - and Grays' as well as the main one on dissection - which of course is covered to some extent in the other two.
The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.
Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.
The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.
The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.
Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.
Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....
I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
I was under the presumption that you needed to be vaccinated to be able to travel in and out of all European countries?
Edit:- I think some say vaccinated or recovered from covid right? I presume this case might be a reinfection, which from the evidence of Beta variant that was a big concern that it was fairly easy to get reinfected with this variant after having had one of the other ones.
Exactly. How can you possibly get on a plane without proving you are jabbed? Fuck that shit
Earlier on we decided that the metrics to watch were deaths and hospitalisations in South Africa. If they tick up, then we have a problem
OK. Deaths. It could be a statistical glitch but deaths are up, quite significantly. For a while SA has been reporting deaths in the 0-20 range, with the odd leap to 40 or whatever. Yesterday there were 114 deaths, that's definitely out of whack. But deaths are a lagging indicator, as we all know, and the data is meagre, as the Nunu has only been bothering SA for a few weeks.
Hospitalisations? There too the evidence is slight, but noticeable. They are rising, after months of quiet
There were 134 weekly admissions in week 2021:45, a fortnight later in 2021:47 (the last reported), there have been 366 admissions - nearly tripling. It looks very much like the classic early stage of an exponential curve. See here:
Given how many major governments are reacting and reacting so quickly, I think it is clear all their scientists are telling them Houston we have a serious problem. Normally we get this drip drip of change of course from different governments at different times.
I think it's also because all of them can see Christmas on the horizon and don't want to take any risks with having any lockdowns. People's patience has simple run out and they know locking people up for a second successive Christmas away from family and friends is going to be a huge vote loser.
IMO there is a race to hit 35m third doses in three weeks, that's 19m more than we've currently done. It's absolutely possible but it will need someone like Javid to be that bull in the china shop and tell the NHS to get everything sped up, double jabbing capacity, bring forwards eligibility for all over 18s, tell the JCVI to get fucked if they moan about it.
Plus its not necessarily a bad thing if a bit of unnecessary media hysteria drives people into getting their boosters.
Extend boosters to under-50s and I'll have one. I'm still not putting a mask on though.
40-50 year olds can now get a booster, changed on Monday I think.
I have very little specialist knowledge of the science behind Covid, or on the respective vaccines, but the accountant/stats nerd within me remains frustrated at the lack of transparent data that seems to be available.
The most obvious question regarding this latest variant is, as a couple have already asked, whether the explosion in cases has translated in any way to hospitalisations. Is there any data available from South Africa or elsewhere that answers this question?
In many ways, a hugely virulent variant but one that is mild in nature and did not lead to high numbers of hospitalisations and deaths could be seen as not entirely negative. The fact that there have been no reports on hospitalisations leads me to be optimistic on this (given the media's constant desire to doom-monger), but I'd like to see some data.
The other statistic that I'd like to see is hospitalisations and deaths among the vaccinated broken down between AZ, Pfizer and Moderna. I'd read a couple of articles suggesting that one of the reasons behind the UK's relative recent success relative to continental Europe might be that the AZ vaccine offered better protection than did Pfizer or Moderna. I'd like to see more data on this - my view from the beginning of the vaccination programme is that (a) Pfizer's PR team have been incredibly slick, especially compared to AZ, (b) AZ made themselves very unpopular with their competition by offering their vaccine at cost price, and (c) as a result of (a) and (b) much of the press coverage against AZ has been unfairly biased against it. Again, I'd like to see some data.
If there is any such data out there, any direction from my fellow PBers would be much appreciated.
I just posted the SA data. See below. And yes there is some cause for concern
Simple point but a reminder that it isn't winter down there.
Any country that has restrictions twelve months after vaccines became available has failed. Dismally.
If there's any restrictions reintroduced into England (and I don't mean the silly Smarkets market) then the 1922 needs to give the PM the revolver and whiskey.
Imagine if your last dram wasn't even Scotch.
I knew someone would pick that up! I can never remember which is which.
Perhaps true to character, I much prefer rum.
There's no 'e' in Scotland nor in 'whisky'.
(Obviously breaks down for England and Wales, which both have 'e' but 'whisky', but works for United States, Ireland and Japan).
More importantly, there's no whisky in me. Something that I plan to remedy later
I'm going to nominate this as the most comically irrelevant and ill-timed header in the history of the internet
The world wobbles on its axis, humanity peers into the abyss, PB talks about a the Smarkets on a possible Scottish indyvote which won't happen for a decade anyway
It's oddly reassuring. Thankyou Mike
Plus even if Carnyx and I are the last 2 people left alive on earth, I can assure you I will still take over the mantle for Unionists and refuse an indyref2 for a generation
So you're saying even if 100% of Scots were in favour of independence then that doesn't change a thing?
Correct, even if Carnyx is the only Scot left alive on earth and I am the only Tory left alive in the UK (and thus end up UK PM by default) I will still refuse indyref2 for a generation
Something tells me if you were the only Tory left alive int he UK then Scotland could just UDI independence.
Not if I moved to Scotland and therefore had a vote in Scotland and blocked it too, as Carnyx and I would then be the only residents of Scotland left too on this hypothesis as well as the only people left in the UK
You'll be moving in your own personal tank I suppose?
A personal tank is a "tankette", iirc.
HYUFD is Gruber in his little tank.
Ha ha - that was exactly the name I was trying, but failing, to remember.
Had never heard of Gruber. Not a tank but an armoured car, I find on checking. Leichter Panzerspähwagen rtather than Panzerkampfwagen. Though the distinction is perhaps moot - at least one armoured car had tracks which it could lower for cross country work.
Can anybody recall what time of day South Africa reports its daily COVID numbers, I keep on pressing 'refresh on the tab with wouldmeater on it' then realised the knowledge bank on PB would probably know!
Just how infectious is the Nunu? This guy thinks VERY, because of the HK cases - the actual real life infections
"not gonna lie, if this new COVID variant can spread thru HK hotel quarantine, that's pretty wild.
"HK quarantine is ridiculously strict, you can't leave your room, at all, ever. You can grab food from a chair sitting outside your door (with mask on) few times per day"
Re this new variant scheduled to eliminate civilisation as we know it by Easter (as per @Leon late last night), why isn't the government saying that everyone over 18 should now get a third jab - pronto?
Just reading the @ProfTimBale@robfordmancs@drjennings@p_surridge book on the 2019 General Election. I've got to the bit where the Brexit Party saves 25 @UKLabour seats. Labour really has just survived a potential Extinction Level Event. 1/2
The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.
Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.
The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.
The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.
Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.
Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....
I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
I was under the presumption that you needed to be vaccinated to be able to travel in and out of all European countries?
Edit:- I think some say vaccinated or recovered from covid right? I presume this case might be a reinfection, which from the evidence of Beta variant that was a big concern that it was fairly easy to get reinfected with this variant after having had one of the other ones.
Exactly. How can you possibly get on a plane without proving you are jabbed? Fuck that shit
Exciting breaking news on the North Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner by-election front.
First preference
Conservative 40.1% - down 6.9% on May Labour 21.1% - down 4.9% on May Independent 17.5% - up 2.9% Liberal Democrat 11.1% - down 1.5% Women's Equality 10.3% - from nowhere
The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.
Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.
The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.
The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.
Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.
Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....
I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
I was under the presumption that you needed to be vaccinated to be able to travel in and out of all European countries?
Edit:- I think some say vaccinated or recovered from covid right? I presume this case might be a reinfection, which from the evidence of Beta variant that was a big concern that it was fairly easy to get reinfected with this variant after having had one of the other ones.
Exactly. How can you possibly get on a plane without proving you are jabbed? Fuck that shit
By producing a very recent negative test result
That must change now
How did the cases get into Belgium, or is a PCR not required there for travel?
Earlier on we decided that the metrics to watch were deaths and hospitalisations in South Africa. If they tick up, then we have a problem
OK. Deaths. It could be a statistical glitch but deaths are up, quite significantly. For a while SA has been reporting deaths in the 0-20 range, with the odd leap to 40 or whatever. Yesterday there were 114 deaths, that's definitely out of whack. But deaths are a lagging indicator, as we all know, and the data is meagre, as the Nunu has only been bothering SA for a few weeks.
Hospitalisations? There too the evidence is slight, but noticeable. They are rising, after months of quiet
There were 134 weekly admissions in week 2021:45, a fortnight later in 2021:47 (the last reported), there have been 366 admissions - nearly tripling. It looks very much like the classic early stage of an exponential curve. See here:
Given how many major governments are reacting and reacting so quickly, I think it is clear all their scientists are telling them Houston we have a serious problem. Normally we get this drip drip of change of course from different governments at different times.
I think it's also because all of them can see Christmas on the horizon and don't want to take any risks with having any lockdowns. People's patience has simple run out and they know locking people up for a second successive Christmas away from family and friends is going to be a huge vote loser.
IMO there is a race to hit 35m third doses in three weeks, that's 19m more than we've currently done. It's absolutely possible but it will need someone like Javid to be that bull in the china shop and tell the NHS to get everything sped up, double jabbing capacity, bring forwards eligibility for all over 18s, tell the JCVI to get fucked if they moan about it.
Plus its not necessarily a bad thing if a bit of unnecessary media hysteria drives people into getting their boosters.
Extend boosters to under-50s and I'll have one. I'm still not putting a mask on though.
Boosters have already been extended to those of us in our forties, but we still have to wait the full six months since the second dose before we're allowed to have one.
At the start of the year the British government made the right call to extend the gap between the first and second dose to twelve weeks.
Now is the time to reject orthodoxy again and reduce the gap between second and third doses. It makes no sense at all to stick dogmatically to a six-month interval.
Just how infectious is the Nunu? This guy thinks VERY, because of the HK cases - the actual real life infections
"not gonna lie, if this new COVID variant can spread thru HK hotel quarantine, that's pretty wild.
"HK quarantine is ridiculously strict, you can't leave your room, at all, ever. You can grab food from a chair sitting outside your door (with mask on) few times per day"
OTOH it seems at least one of the cases was asymptomatic, which is better news
How do they know that the 60year old was infected by the 35 year old while in separate adjacent hotel rooms, presumably if the 60 year old was also in quarantine, then he could have also brought it from South Africa, or caught it on the plain, but not tested positive on the first test because he was still in the incubation pierid?
The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.
Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.
The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.
The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.
Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.
Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....
I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
but arguably this is already the case with quarantine and testing rules which only apply to the unvaccinated.
Plus; the vaccinated can catch and spread the virus as has been established many times.
A lot of this is about reducing the likelihood of something happening so even a 40% reduction is worth having, plus it forces more people into the vaccine funnel.
Exciting breaking news on the North Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner by-election front.
First preference
Conservative 40.1% - down 6.9% on May Labour 21.1% - down 4.9% on May Independent 17.5% - up 2.9% Liberal Democrat 11.1% - down 1.5% Women's Equality 10.3% - from nowhere
The countdown continues.
Oh! Proving once again that it's donkey in a blue rosette country (nothing against the current Con candidate, but the previous one cetainly was a donkey in a blue rosette). Unless, of course, there's a major upset on second prefs...
My wife voted WEP 1st pref, I think. I gave them second pref after the independent. My preferences because (i) I think the post should be for a person, not a party and (ii) if it is going to be a party then someone likely to take an interest in making women (feel and be) safer and giving that some priority would be a good thing.
Exciting breaking news on the North Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner by-election front.
First preference
Conservative 40.1% - down 6.9% on May Labour 21.1% - down 4.9% on May Independent 17.5% - up 2.9% Liberal Democrat 11.1% - down 1.5% Women's Equality 10.3% - from nowhere
The countdown continues.
I wonder how this would map to parliamentary seats per Baxter?
Just how infectious is the Nunu? This guy thinks VERY, because of the HK cases - the actual real life infections
"not gonna lie, if this new COVID variant can spread thru HK hotel quarantine, that's pretty wild.
"HK quarantine is ridiculously strict, you can't leave your room, at all, ever. You can grab food from a chair sitting outside your door (with mask on) few times per day"
Just how infectious is the Nunu? This guy thinks VERY, because of the HK cases - the actual real life infections
"not gonna lie, if this new COVID variant can spread thru HK hotel quarantine, that's pretty wild.
"HK quarantine is ridiculously strict, you can't leave your room, at all, ever. You can grab food from a chair sitting outside your door (with mask on) few times per day"
OTOH it seems at least one of the cases was asymptomatic, which is better news
What would be great is if this is a largely asymptomatic disease in vaccinated and recovered people. Even if we can all catch it, if it presents few to no symptoms I think that's our best case scenario. A new dominant variant that is out there but also doesn't make anyone very sick.
Just how infectious is the Nunu? This guy thinks VERY, because of the HK cases - the actual real life infections
"not gonna lie, if this new COVID variant can spread thru HK hotel quarantine, that's pretty wild.
"HK quarantine is ridiculously strict, you can't leave your room, at all, ever. You can grab food from a chair sitting outside your door (with mask on) few times per day"
OTOH it seems at least one of the cases was asymptomatic, which is better news
How do they know that the 60year old was infected by the 35 year old while in separate adjacent hotel rooms, presumably if the 60 year old was also in quarantine, then he could have also brought it from South Africa, or caught it on the plain, but not tested positive on the first test because he was still in the incubation pierid?
Good questions, which aren't obviously answered in that tweet thread
If there is one thing I am going to tell you today it is to IGNORE the media and the clickbait headlines on this new variant. There is NO plausible scenario this will take us back to square one and there is a lot of misinformation currently circulating.
The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.
Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.
The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.
The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.
Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.
Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....
I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
I was under the presumption that you needed to be vaccinated to be able to travel in and out of all European countries?
Edit:- I think some say vaccinated or recovered from covid right? I presume this case might be a reinfection, which from the evidence of Beta variant that was a big concern that it was fairly easy to get reinfected with this variant after having had one of the other ones.
Exactly. How can you possibly get on a plane without proving you are jabbed? Fuck that shit
By producing a very recent negative test result
That must change now
Yes, I'd actually make flying the exclusive preserve of those who have had at least two vaccine doses of an MHRA approved vaccine. We should no longer allow any unvaccinated passengers into the UK unless a confirmed medical condition exists where the person is unable to get vaccinated. The US has effectively made this defacto policy for international flights and incoming passengers, we should as well.
Earlier on we decided that the metrics to watch were deaths and hospitalisations in South Africa. If they tick up, then we have a problem
OK. Deaths. It could be a statistical glitch but deaths are up, quite significantly. For a while SA has been reporting deaths in the 0-20 range, with the odd leap to 40 or whatever. Yesterday there were 114 deaths, that's definitely out of whack. But deaths are a lagging indicator, as we all know, and the data is meagre, as the Nunu has only been bothering SA for a few weeks.
Hospitalisations? There too the evidence is slight, but noticeable. They are rising, after months of quiet
There were 134 weekly admissions in week 2021:45, a fortnight later in 2021:47 (the last reported), there have been 366 admissions - nearly tripling. It looks very much like the classic early stage of an exponential curve. See here:
Given how many major governments are reacting and reacting so quickly, I think it is clear all their scientists are telling them Houston we have a serious problem. Normally we get this drip drip of change of course from different governments at different times.
I think it's also because all of them can see Christmas on the horizon and don't want to take any risks with having any lockdowns. People's patience has simple run out and they know locking people up for a second successive Christmas away from family and friends is going to be a huge vote loser.
IMO there is a race to hit 35m third doses in three weeks, that's 19m more than we've currently done. It's absolutely possible but it will need someone like Javid to be that bull in the china shop and tell the NHS to get everything sped up, double jabbing capacity, bring forwards eligibility for all over 18s, tell the JCVI to get fucked if they moan about it.
Plus its not necessarily a bad thing if a bit of unnecessary media hysteria drives people into getting their boosters.
Extend boosters to under-50s and I'll have one. I'm still not putting a mask on though.
Boosters have already been extended to those of us in our forties, but we still have to wait the full six months since the second dose before we're allowed to have one.
At the start of the year the British government made the right call to extend the gap between the first and second dose to twelve weeks.
Now is the time to reject orthodoxy again and reduce the gap between second and third doses. It makes no sense at all to stick dogmatically to a six-month interval.
It never made that much sense.
The gap should have been set at whatever enabled the maximum throughput of booster shots.
Re this new variant scheduled to eliminate civilisation as we know it by Easter (as per @Leon late last night), why isn't the government saying that everyone over 18 should now get a third jab - pronto?
My understanding is we don't yet know if this variant will require a new vaccine. This is the thing I'm mainly fretting about - or rather trying unsuccessfully not to until we do know.
Just how infectious is the Nunu? This guy thinks VERY, because of the HK cases - the actual real life infections
"not gonna lie, if this new COVID variant can spread thru HK hotel quarantine, that's pretty wild.
"HK quarantine is ridiculously strict, you can't leave your room, at all, ever. You can grab food from a chair sitting outside your door (with mask on) few times per day"
OTOH it seems at least one of the cases was asymptomatic, which is better news
How do they know that the 60year old was infected by the 35 year old while in separate adjacent hotel rooms, presumably if the 60 year old was also in quarantine, then he could have also brought it from South Africa, or caught it on the plain, but not tested positive on the first test because he was still in the incubation pierid?
Good questions, which aren't obviously answered in that tweet thread
Its worth noting that we have had isolated cases of spread in quarantine hotels before, and not just talking about the ozzie orgie ones. There has been cases of cleaners catching it after a guest left and passing it on, somebody slipping up while having to sort of some issue, the transportation from the airport to the hotel being the vector, etc.
Just how infectious is the Nunu? This guy thinks VERY, because of the HK cases - the actual real life infections
"not gonna lie, if this new COVID variant can spread thru HK hotel quarantine, that's pretty wild.
"HK quarantine is ridiculously strict, you can't leave your room, at all, ever. You can grab food from a chair sitting outside your door (with mask on) few times per day"
OTOH it seems at least one of the cases was asymptomatic, which is better news
How do they know that the 60year old was infected by the 35 year old while in separate adjacent hotel rooms, presumably if the 60 year old was also in quarantine, then he could have also brought it from South Africa, or caught it on the plain, but not tested positive on the first test because he was still in the incubation pierid?
The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.
Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.
The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.
The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.
Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.
Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....
I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
I was under the presumption that you needed to be vaccinated to be able to travel in and out of all European countries?
Edit:- I think some say vaccinated or recovered from covid right? I presume this case might be a reinfection, which from the evidence of Beta variant that was a big concern that it was fairly easy to get reinfected with this variant after having had one of the other ones.
Exactly. How can you possibly get on a plane without proving you are jabbed? Fuck that shit
By producing a very recent negative test result
That must change now
Yes, I'd actually make flying the exclusive preserve of those who have had at least two vaccine doses of an MHRA approved vaccine. We should no longer allow any unvaccinated passengers into the UK unless a confirmed medical condition exists where the person is unable to get vaccinated. The US has effectively made this defacto policy for international flights and incoming passengers, we should as well.
Do we know how much infectiousness is reduced if you are double vaxxed?
Is your measure about reducing spread, or is it about nudging people toward get vaxxed? Or both?
Just how infectious is the Nunu? This guy thinks VERY, because of the HK cases - the actual real life infections
"not gonna lie, if this new COVID variant can spread thru HK hotel quarantine, that's pretty wild.
"HK quarantine is ridiculously strict, you can't leave your room, at all, ever. You can grab food from a chair sitting outside your door (with mask on) few times per day"
OTOH it seems at least one of the cases was asymptomatic, which is better news
How do they know that the 60year old was infected by the 35 year old while in separate adjacent hotel rooms, presumably if the 60 year old was also in quarantine, then he could have also brought it from South Africa, or caught it on the plain, but not tested positive on the first test because he was still in the incubation pierid?
Good questions, which aren't obviously answered in that tweet thread
Its worth noting that we have had isolated cases of spread in quarantine hotels before, and not just talking about the ozzie orgie ones. There has been cases of cleaners catching it after a guest left and passing it on, somebody slipping up while having to sort of some issue, the transportation from the airport to the hotel being the vector, etc.
The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.
Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.
The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.
The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.
Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.
Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....
I really, really think we need to start putting up punishing tariffs on unvaccinated travellers. I'm not in favour of doing it domestically, but letting in unvaccinated people from other countries just strikes me as utterly idiotic.
I was under the presumption that you needed to be vaccinated to be able to travel in and out of all European countries?
Edit:- I think some say vaccinated or recovered from covid right? I presume this case might be a reinfection, which from the evidence of Beta variant that was a big concern that it was fairly easy to get reinfected with this variant after having had one of the other ones.
Exactly. How can you possibly get on a plane without proving you are jabbed? Fuck that shit
By producing a very recent negative test result
That must change now
Yes, I'd actually make flying the exclusive preserve of those who have had at least two vaccine doses of an MHRA approved vaccine. We should no longer allow any unvaccinated passengers into the UK unless a confirmed medical condition exists where the person is unable to get vaccinated. The US has effectively made this defacto policy for international flights and incoming passengers, we should as well.
Do we know how much infectiousness is reduced if you are double vaxxed?
Is your measure about reducing spread, or is it about nudging people toward get vaxxed? Or both?
On point 1, about 40-50% for the double jabbed vs Delta, significantly higher for the triple jabbed. On point 2, both. No more testing get out clause for anti-vaxxers.
Just how infectious is the Nunu? This guy thinks VERY, because of the HK cases - the actual real life infections
"not gonna lie, if this new COVID variant can spread thru HK hotel quarantine, that's pretty wild.
"HK quarantine is ridiculously strict, you can't leave your room, at all, ever. You can grab food from a chair sitting outside your door (with mask on) few times per day"
OTOH it seems at least one of the cases was asymptomatic, which is better news
What would be great is if this is a largely asymptomatic disease in vaccinated and recovered people. Even if we can all catch it, if it presents few to no symptoms I think that's our best case scenario. A new dominant variant that is out there but also doesn't make anyone very sick.
Which would have the bonus effect of topping up everybody's immune system.
Comments
Last Thursday's report here:
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2021-11-25.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
seems to show that in calendar week 45 all 1713 of the sequencing done on randomly chosen positive PCR tests were Delta, and none were Alpha, Beta, Gamma, My, or Lambda. But it's interesting that that number (1713) is about half the number of previous weeks - which were also almost all Delta. I'm not sure why there would be such a big drop in the amount of random sequencing done from one week to the next. It also seems odd - unless labs were so overwhelmed with tests that there was less time for sequencing?
I predicted that energy costs and other supply problems would hit consumer goods next spring. Perhaps the Christmas really could be an issue?
Perhaps true to character, I much prefer rum.
Nerdy Epping Forest obsessive is gradually worn down by the rough hewn charms of a wild Scottish catenach.
'No, not if you were the last man on earth!'
'Och, I am the last man on earth. Wait till I take you up Glen Coe.'
Cumberbatch for HYUFD, Sam Heughan for Carnyx.
If the variant has been around for long enough to spread thoroughly around Europe (and I don't believe it has or else we would've spotted it) then we can at least, however, be reassured that it must be a very limited threat. If it were significantly more transmissible and lethal than Delta, then the pattern being followed by the illness on our wet little island would not continue to be so obviously different to that elsewhere. We'd have been swept up in the latest plague spike too.
Brightened mine, too. lol. Ta
I am not even saying it is everywhere in Europe, more I am wondering if this has added fuel to the fire of the other factors. You get a few super spreaders in certain towns, and viola you can add 1000s of extra cases in no time, and that was with just Delta. We saw that with the importation of Delta to UK, which was initially just areas with high Indian populations.
Keith Brown probably does think Planet Earth's continued existence depends on a change of flags.
Let alone who'd be returning officer for by-elections if everyone's dead - nor who the Speaker or Monarch could be either.
Earlier on we decided that the metrics to watch were deaths and hospitalisations in South Africa. If they tick up, then we have a problem
OK. Deaths. It could be a statistical glitch but deaths are up, quite significantly. For a while SA has been reporting deaths in the 0-20 range, with the odd leap to 40 or whatever. Yesterday there were 114 deaths, that's definitely out of whack. But deaths are a lagging indicator, as we all know, and the data is meagre, as the Nunu has only been bothering SA for a few weeks.
Hospitalisations? There too the evidence is slight, but noticeable. They are rising, after months of quiet
There were 134 weekly admissions in week 2021:45, a fortnight later in 2021:47 (the last reported), there have been 366 admissions - nearly tripling. It looks very much like the classic early stage of an exponential curve. See here:
https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
I suggest we have a problem
I am still haunted by Javid's terrified eyes last night, after his Emergency Cabinet Meeting. That was the face of a man who has just heard some scary shit
It's your persistent assumption that other people's votes are worth less than yours I find deeply disturbing. I'll go off and do something calming like talk tyo MattW some more about what to do with dead bodies. Much nicer to contemplate.
Otherwise I agree with you, though I think the failures last winter were sufficient to give the PM the heave-ho already.
If Carnyx holds a referendum which unanimously says Scotland is independent, then how are you going to overturn that without a military or courts or anything else?
The Belgian government has said that one individual has tested positive for the B.1.1.529 variant, the new strain of the coronavirus that was just detected in South Africa.
Belgium is the first European country to confirm a case of the new variant.
The individual tested positive for the new variant of Covid-19 on Nov. 22, Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke said.
The patient was unvaccinated and had recently travelled from Egypt, tweeted Marc Van Ranst, Belgium’s leading virologist who originally discovered the case.
Shortly after this announcement, France announced that it is “reinforcing” control at its border with Belgium, the government’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday.
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/new-covid-variant-south-africa-11-26-21/index.html
Elsewhere I read that the double jabbed Hong Kong case was asymptomatic.....
IMO there is a race to hit 35m third doses in three weeks, that's 19m more than we've currently done. It's absolutely possible but it will need someone like Javid to be that bull in the china shop and tell the NHS to get everything sped up, double jabbing capacity, bring forwards eligibility for all over 18s, tell the JCVI to get fucked if they moan about it.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Ruth-Richardson/e/B001IZR7CU?ref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share
I liked the books on the workhouse - still there apparently - and Grays' as well as the main one on dissection - which of course is covered to some extent in the other two.
Extend boosters to under-50s and I'll have one. I'm still not putting a mask on though.
I think we managed to find a use for the remaining rum in making some enhanced custard, or something similar.
The most obvious question regarding this latest variant is, as a couple have already asked, whether the explosion in cases has translated in any way to hospitalisations. Is there any data available from South Africa or elsewhere that answers this question?
In many ways, a hugely virulent variant but one that is mild in nature and did not lead to high numbers of hospitalisations and deaths could be seen as not entirely negative. The fact that there have been no reports on hospitalisations leads me to be optimistic on this (given the media's constant desire to doom-monger), but I'd like to see some data.
The other statistic that I'd like to see is hospitalisations and deaths among the vaccinated broken down between AZ, Pfizer and Moderna. I'd read a couple of articles suggesting that one of the reasons behind the UK's relative recent success relative to continental Europe might be that the AZ vaccine offered better protection than did Pfizer or Moderna. I'd like to see more data on this - my view from the beginning of the vaccination programme is that (a) Pfizer's PR team have been incredibly slick, especially compared to AZ, (b) AZ made themselves very unpopular with their competition by offering their vaccine at cost price, and (c) as a result of (a) and (b) much of the press coverage against AZ has been unfairly biased against it. Again, I'd like to see some data.
If there is any such data out there, any direction from my fellow PBers would be much appreciated.
Edit:- I think some say vaccinated or recovered from covid right? I presume this case might be a reinfection, which from the evidence of Beta variant that was a big concern that it was fairly easy to get reinfected with this variant after having had one of the other ones.
On the second point, it would be nice if one didn't have to wait the full six months for the booster but I doubt that's going to change. More chance of extending the program to cover all adults though.
No idea is that is the norm
I doubt Nippy write the section 30 letter next year so this market will be voided.
Plus; the vaccinated can catch and spread the virus as has been established many times.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1464253617100103688?s=20
Beckons for Christmas, perhaps.
(Obviously breaks down for England and Wales, which both have 'e' but 'whisky', but works for United States, Ireland and Japan).
More importantly, there's no whisky in me. Something that I plan to remedy later
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOOFB1j9Zfw
I prefer this Gruber:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lu5tRhbh5o
"not gonna lie, if this new COVID variant can spread thru HK hotel quarantine, that's pretty wild.
"HK quarantine is ridiculously strict, you can't leave your room, at all, ever. You can grab food from a chair sitting outside your door (with mask on) few times per day"
https://twitter.com/TheCryptoDog/status/1464250009474543617?s=20
OTOH it seems at least one of the cases was asymptomatic, which is better news
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1464231689337638917?s=20
First preference
Conservative 40.1% - down 6.9% on May
Labour 21.1% - down 4.9% on May
Independent 17.5% - up 2.9%
Liberal Democrat 11.1% - down 1.5%
Women's Equality 10.3% - from nowhere
The countdown continues.
Now is the time to reject orthodoxy again and reduce the gap between second and third doses. It makes no sense at all to stick dogmatically to a six-month interval.
My wife voted WEP 1st pref, I think. I gave them second pref after the independent. My preferences because (i) I think the post should be for a person, not a party and (ii) if it is going to be a party then someone likely to take an interest in making women (feel and be) safer and giving that some priority would be a good thing.
https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464222680731820043
If there is one thing I am going to tell you today it is to IGNORE the media and the clickbait headlines on this new variant. There is NO plausible scenario this will take us back to square one and there is a lot of misinformation currently circulating.
The gap should have been set at whatever enabled the maximum throughput of booster shots.
Is your measure about reducing spread, or is it about nudging people toward get vaxxed? Or both?
"She just held my hand and said: 'You won't let your dad go private, will you?"
Labour leader Keir Starmer tells @bbcnickrobinson about his late mother, a "passionate defender of the NHS"