That’s pretty much played out: the U.K. is low regulation, and high labour flexibility. Yet the “North” is still poor, and getting (comparatively) poorer. Why?
How does this sit with your assertion that "Trade is pretty much a function: Value = (Proximity x Economic size) - Regulatory Friction"?
You are confusing “trade” with “growth”, although the two things are obviously related.
It is true that Leeds is very much likely to “trade” more with Bradford, but that tells us nothing really about growth in Leeds or Bradford.
The point is that the treasury rates the clusters that govern economic development between Leeds and Birmingham and Leeds and London as low potential (lower than £4bn apparently). It's they say making the proximity part of the equation makes no difference to the overall picture. It's like the UK/Morocco example I was talking about, the official rating is extremely low, like hilariously so. Yet as we know there are multiple UK/Morocco deals in the pipeline including a solar energy interconnect, investment by UK companies in Moroccan infrastructure, export of planning services, export of solar energy expertise etc... The treasury model says that this relationship is of zero value and will always be of zero value, yet those projects will add up to tens of billions in value within a few years for both countries.
Proximity is a much smaller factor than, IMO, inertia.
The irony there is that London to Leeds is only a small part of the true gain there.
You have Leeds to Sheffield, Sheffield to Derby, Leeds to Derby, Grantham to Peterborough. Heck you even get more trains from Leeds to Wakefield / Selby just by increasing the capacity in and out of Leeds.
If the treasury are merely looking at just the end points they've missed all the gains in between that the extra capacity opens up and that is a flaw within their modelling that could be seized upon.
My dad did lots of work on sewage farms. Tomato plants were everywhere for this reason.
As far as I know he was never brave enough to pick any ...
As I may have mentioned my dad fought in the Korean War. Though he didn’t talk that much abut it, one thing he did say was that the whole country smelled of shit. Human excrement was the main fertiliser and it being a largely agricultural country, the reek was pervasive. Bully beef and tinned jam all round..
Heard that when a lot of elderly, rural folk were re-housed in the 90's in tower blocks in Seoul, they would go out each evening and dutifully do their patriotic duty and shit in the stairwells. This may be apocryphal.
Lol. Bit of Korean cultural appropriation going on in some Glasgow tower locks in that case!
It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808
There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.
There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.
No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.
I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.
My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.
Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?
Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.
It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.
He's got our man from the north Govey on the job doesn't he?
Let's see how it plays out.
*I’m a great admirer of Thatcher by the way, but her economic view is not fit for 2021.
You a MMT fan?
(Apologies, since you gave me a decent response)
No.
But I do note:
- U.K. prints it’s own money. - The fear that 100% debt-to-GDP impaired economic growth has pretty much been debunked. - Interest rates are very low.
I therefore wonder why the hell we want to fetishise debt levels over the future prosperity of 65% of the country.
Anyway, my point about Thatcher was more about the general theory that you can deregulate your way to growth. That’s pretty much played out: the U.K. is low regulation, and high labour flexibility. Yet the “North” is still poor, and getting (comparatively) poorer. Why?
I don't know why.
I'll guess your answer might be infrastructure?
I agree we should be borrowing heavily in these times of low interest rates (which won't be along for much longer by my reading.)
Infrastructure + Skills + Local Autonomy is the magic recipe.
Local Autonomy can be too local though. Put it down to the sub-city region level and it's too small for politicians to care about economic development and just focus on NIMBY issues.
I also think infrastructure needs to be about more than telecoms and travel. If you want to keep the newly skilled people leaving you need to spend a lot on making the place nice to live. Concrete brutalism and high rises are disastrous for this. You need community based streets, trees, parks, public art, little shops and restaurants.
Agree with all of this of course. But also, these kind of arguments essentially stop the U.K. from doing ANYTHING.
Except, from about 2000 to 2015, in London. Which worked pretty well.
My dad did lots of work on sewage farms. Tomato plants were everywhere for this reason.
As far as I know he was never brave enough to pick any ...
As I may have mentioned my dad fought in the Korean War. Though he didn’t talk that much abut it, one thing he did say was that the whole country smelled of shit. Human excrement was the main fertiliser and it being a largely agricultural country, the reek was pervasive. Bully beef and tinned jam all round..
Heard that when a lot of elderly, rural folk were re-housed in the 90's in tower blocks in Seoul, they would go out each evening and dutifully do their patriotic duty and shit in the stairwells. This may be apocryphal.
Change management is essential for project success. Clearly it wasn't done here...
I'd also like to take a moment to appreciate just how shit our media class is. Where is anyone asking these fucking questions of Rishi, why is the treasury using the same economic modelling that failed to predict the rise of the internet and halted our investment in fibre optic cabling in the early 2000s?
I'd also like to take a moment to appreciate just how shit our media class is. Where is anyone asking these fucking questions of Rishi, why is the treasury using the same economic modelling that failed to predict the rise of the internet and halted our investment in fibre optic cabling in the early 2000s?
Equally why does the model seem to look at point to point models and miss the entire point of network effects and the multiplier they create?
I'd also like to take a moment to appreciate just how shit our media class is. Where is anyone asking these fucking questions of Rishi, why is the treasury using the same economic modelling that failed to predict the rise of the internet and halted our investment in fibre optic cabling in the early 2000s?
The media is full of innumerate twats who don’t do detail.
In the late 90s it once took me 2 days to get home by train from the West Highlands to Berkshire.
I was doing the West Highland Way but my feet had been consumed by blistersnso had to stop half way. Turned up at the station in the early afternoon and the last train to Glasgow had gone. Had to stay in a YMCA overnight and caught the first train the next day which want until about 10. By the time I got to Glasgow I had missed the last train to Reading so another overnight stay. Finally got home after 48 hours!
I'd also like to take a moment to appreciate just how shit our media class is. Where is anyone asking these fucking questions of Rishi, why is the treasury using the same economic modelling that failed to predict the rise of the internet and halted our investment in fibre optic cabling in the early 2000s?
I do sometimes feel like we are watching a country failing in real time right before our eyes. No part of it is working.
In the late 90s it once took me 2 days to get home by train from the West Highlands to Berkshire.
I was doing the West Highland Way but my feet had been consumed by blistersnso had to stop half way. Turned up at the station in the early afternoon and the last train to Glasgow had gone. Had to stay in a YMCA overnight and caught the first train the next day which want until about 10. By the time I got to Glasgow I had missed the last train to Reading so another overnight stay. Finally got home after 48 hours!
Pro-tip: you can fly from Aberdeen (and I presume Glasgow and Edinburgh) to London in circa an hour.
I'd also like to take a moment to appreciate just how shit our media class is. Where is anyone asking these fucking questions of Rishi, why is the treasury using the same economic modelling that failed to predict the rise of the internet and halted our investment in fibre optic cabling in the early 2000s?
Equally why does the model seem to look at point to point models and miss the entire point of network effects and the multiplier they create?
Indeed, it's just so broken. The UK/Morocco example is the best one, IMO, of where the treasury's internal model rates it at a 0% addition to UK GDP yet we already know of tens of billions worth of development for both sides in the pipeline. The cluster size of UK -> Morocco exports and Morocco -> UK exports are absolutely tiny, as in they are in the hundreds of millions on both sides, the potential by gravity modelling rates that at something like a £10-30m uplift between both countries, except that under the terms of the deal the UK will invest billions in building out solar farms in Morocco and Morocco will export billions of dollars worth of electricity to the UK. Something where nothing previously existed.
I'd also like to take a moment to appreciate just how shit our media class is. Where is anyone asking these fucking questions of Rishi, why is the treasury using the same economic modelling that failed to predict the rise of the internet and halted our investment in fibre optic cabling in the early 2000s?
The media is full of innumerate twats who don’t do detail.
Did you know, BTW, Boris used to be a journalist?
Do you think a Treasury drone would be preferable to Boris?
That’s pretty much played out: the U.K. is low regulation, and high labour flexibility. Yet the “North” is still poor, and getting (comparatively) poorer. Why?
How does this sit with your assertion that "Trade is pretty much a function: Value = (Proximity x Economic size) - Regulatory Friction"?
You are confusing “trade” with “growth”, although the two things are obviously related.
It is true that Leeds is very much likely to “trade” more with Bradford, but that tells us nothing really about growth in Leeds or Bradford.
The point is that the treasury rates the clusters that govern economic development between Leeds and Birmingham and Leeds and London as low potential (lower than £4bn apparently). It's they say making the proximity part of the equation makes no difference to the overall picture. It's like the UK/Morocco example I was talking about, the official rating is extremely low, like hilariously so. Yet as we know there are multiple UK/Morocco deals in the pipeline including a solar energy interconnect, investment by UK companies in Moroccan infrastructure, export of planning services, export of solar energy expertise etc... The treasury model says that this relationship is of zero value and will always be of zero value, yet those projects will add up to tens of billions in value within a few years for both countries.
Proximity is a much smaller factor than, IMO, inertia.
The irony there is that London to Leeds is only a small part of the true gain there.
You have Leeds to Sheffield, Sheffield to Derby, Leeds to Derby, Grantham to Peterborough. Heck you even get more trains from Leeds to Wakefield / Selby just by increasing the capacity in and out of Leeds.
If the treasury are merely looking at just the end points they've missed all the gains in between that the extra capacity opens up and that is a flaw within their modelling that could be seized upon.
One has to be suspicious that the modelling is just 'rigged' to produce the answer that the arts graduate senior civil servants have already decided is good enough for the oinks of the North.
I'd also like to take a moment to appreciate just how shit our media class is. Where is anyone asking these fucking questions of Rishi, why is the treasury using the same economic modelling that failed to predict the rise of the internet and halted our investment in fibre optic cabling in the early 2000s?
The media is full of innumerate twats who don’t do detail.
Did you know, BTW, Boris used to be a journalist?
Do you think a Treasury drone would be preferable to Boris?
To be honest, anyone would be preferable to Boris. He is debauching the country every minute he stays in office.
I'd also like to take a moment to appreciate just how shit our media class is. Where is anyone asking these fucking questions of Rishi, why is the treasury using the same economic modelling that failed to predict the rise of the internet and halted our investment in fibre optic cabling in the early 2000s?
The media is full of innumerate twats who don’t do detail.
Did you know, BTW, Boris used to be a journalist?
Do you think a Treasury drone would be preferable to Boris?
To be honest, anyone would be preferable to Boris. He is debauching the country every minute he stays in office.
Hard to say who the modern equivalent of Incitatus the Horse is in the Senate, sorry HoC, today. Several fine candidates in the last couple of weeks.
The one good thing about Bozza was his belief in grands projets. Now, he’s lost even that. The hopeless little twerp has been sent packing by the big boys in the Treasury.
I'd also like to take a moment to appreciate just how shit our media class is. Where is anyone asking these fucking questions of Rishi, why is the treasury using the same economic modelling that failed to predict the rise of the internet and halted our investment in fibre optic cabling in the early 2000s?
I do sometimes feel like we are watching a country failing in real time right before our eyes. No part of it is working.
This actually happens everywhere.
For example, the US Government uses similar models.
These predict, for example, that reducing the cost of space launch would destroy billions of dollars of value. Because massively reducing the costs of something is famous for destroying an industry.
Btw if anyone fancies an interesting podcast, tortoise media’s “sweet Bobby” is a gripping deep dive into an astonishing catfishing case. Worth a few hours of your time, imo.
That's nimby stuff coming not from the leader of the Labour Party but from the MP for Holburn & St Pancras whose constituents are dead against it due to the disruption to the locale. Similar to John McDonnell and the Heathrow expansion. He was against it not as Shadow Chancellor but as the MP for Hayes & Harlington. It's an interesting notion. That in a sense the local MP and the national politician are different people despite also being the same people.
It's a good reason for executive politicians (or, in this case, aspiring executive politicians) to also be members of parliament for specific constituencies. It shows what two-faced ****s they are.
Is that a typo? Surely you mean it's a good reason for them NOT to be MPs for specific constituencies.
No, I think it's good to see them showing their ability (or lack thereof) to stand up to nimbyism.
Ok but it can be a tricky one.
Imagine you're an MP looking at something you think is in the national interest but is bad for your constituency and almost everyone who lives there opposes it.
Do you support it, knowing that this means you're out at the next election because your main opponent will make sure to be noisily on the 'right' side of the argument?
Or do you put your own views aside (given your vote won't be make or break) and represent your constituents with the additional benefit of continuing your parliamentary career?
Almost all do the latter and tbh I reckon I probably would. Therefore, since I can imagine I would, I can't quite go with your "two-faced shits" description.
I'd also like to take a moment to appreciate just how shit our media class is. Where is anyone asking these fucking questions of Rishi, why is the treasury using the same economic modelling that failed to predict the rise of the internet and halted our investment in fibre optic cabling in the early 2000s?
The media is full of innumerate twats who don’t do detail.
Did you know, BTW, Boris used to be a journalist?
Do you think a Treasury drone would be preferable to Boris?
Fair question.
Something I wish I understood about Sunak but don't;
Does he go along with Treasury penny pinching because he believes in it, or is he just too small in stature and ability to argue against it?
I wish he'd spent time running a spending department on the way up.
I'd also like to take a moment to appreciate just how shit our media class is. Where is anyone asking these fucking questions of Rishi, why is the treasury using the same economic modelling that failed to predict the rise of the internet and halted our investment in fibre optic cabling in the early 2000s?
The media is full of innumerate twats who don’t do detail.
Did you know, BTW, Boris used to be a journalist?
Do you think a Treasury drone would be preferable to Boris?
Fair question.
Something I wish I understood about Sunak but don't;
Does he go along with Treasury penny pinching because he believes in it, or is he just too small in stature and ability to argue against it?
I wish he'd spent time running a spending department on the way up.
He's a yes man, remember he's only Chancellor because he agreed to be a sub to Dom.
Boris is still leading on Gross Positive Leader Ratings, but Sir Keir is in the lead on Net Satisfaction.
The problem with the satisfaction test is that the question conflates "I like X" with "I think X is being successful" (and sometimes a bit of "I want X to do badly so I'm satisfied that he's crap"). Thus good poll ratings for X can push up a "doing well" rating with no actual change in whether people think X is any good. And vice versa.
Best PM may be better, though that tends to have an incumbency bias, since it's easier to imagine a current PM as suitable for the job.
Final point on why we're all fucked by the Treasury's addiction to outdated models - they are unable to deal with the concept of making something where nothing previously existed. It's why we're in the slow lane for investment outside of a few specialist areas funded by the MoD budget (which the treasury has repeatedly tried to cut). If something is zero in a model it can't ever really amount to much more than that. We've failed to invest in the "zero" value places and "zero" value trade relationships because the treasury has deemed them unworthy by the models. It's a completely farcical way to run a country.
Today they have reasserted the dominance of this failed predictive model in the UK, we're all going to have to get used to it because Labour or Tory, the same wankers in the treasury pushing the same broken models will exist and the nation will be starved of any kind of investment beyond maintenance of what already exists and a few token bits here and there.
Fibre optic is the classic example of this, 20 years ago countries in Eastern Europe, Asia and elsewhere were investing billions into fibre optic cabling despite the value of the internet and ecommerce being fairly low compared to where it is now. We had that opportunity but the same arseholes in the treasury blocked it because the multiplier on increasing the value of the internet was poor at the time. The bean counters can't see beyond their spreadsheets and the rubbish outputs they get from them. We're going to keep missing opportunities until someone goes in and sacks them all.
Electric vehicles another case in point. S Korea, a smaller economy, will have perhaps a quarter of the world market for battery manufacturing. One of their leading companies was an oil refiner until recently.
That’s pretty much played out: the U.K. is low regulation, and high labour flexibility. Yet the “North” is still poor, and getting (comparatively) poorer. Why?
How does this sit with your assertion that "Trade is pretty much a function: Value = (Proximity x Economic size) - Regulatory Friction"?
You are confusing “trade” with “growth”, although the two things are obviously related.
It is true that Leeds is very much likely to “trade” more with Bradford, but that tells us nothing really about growth in Leeds or Bradford.
The point is that the treasury rates the clusters that govern economic development between Leeds and Birmingham and Leeds and London as low potential (lower than £4bn apparently). It's they say making the proximity part of the equation makes no difference to the overall picture. It's like the UK/Morocco example I was talking about, the official rating is extremely low, like hilariously so. Yet as we know there are multiple UK/Morocco deals in the pipeline including a solar energy interconnect, investment by UK companies in Moroccan infrastructure, export of planning services, export of solar energy expertise etc... The treasury model says that this relationship is of zero value and will always be of zero value, yet those projects will add up to tens of billions in value within a few years for both countries.
Proximity is a much smaller factor than, IMO, inertia.
The irony there is that London to Leeds is only a small part of the true gain there.
You have Leeds to Sheffield, Sheffield to Derby, Leeds to Derby, Grantham to Peterborough. Heck you even get more trains from Leeds to Wakefield / Selby just by increasing the capacity in and out of Leeds.
If the treasury are merely looking at just the end points they've missed all the gains in between that the extra capacity opens up and that is a flaw within their modelling that could be seized upon.
One has to be suspicious that the modelling is just 'rigged' to produce the answer that the arts graduate senior civil servants have already decided is good enough for the oinks of the North.
Going to be painful when they are living with those oinks up North and discover how much they've screwed things up.
I’ll stop geeking out on rail stuff soon but - meanwhile - here’s the graph that shows how Leeds and East Midlands are getting shafted re passenger capacity
The one good thing about Bozza was his belief in grands projets. Now, he’s lost even that. The hopeless little twerp has been sent packing by the big boys in the Treasury.
Where is the bridge to Ireland? Or the new airport in the N Sea?
He'll not have his name on anything except a remaindered book cover at this rate.
It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808
There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.
There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.
No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.
I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.
My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.
Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?
Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.
It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.
He's got our man from the north Govey on the job doesn't he?
Let's see how it plays out.
*I’m a great admirer of Thatcher by the way, but her economic view is not fit for 2021.
You a MMT fan?
(Apologies, since you gave me a decent response)
No.
But I do note:
- U.K. prints it’s own money. - The fear that 100% debt-to-GDP impaired economic growth has pretty much been debunked. - Interest rates are very low.
I therefore wonder why the hell we want to fetishise debt levels over the future prosperity of 65% of the country.
Anyway, my point about Thatcher was more about the general theory that you can deregulate your way to growth. That’s pretty much played out: the U.K. is low regulation, and high labour flexibility. Yet the “North” is still poor, and getting (comparatively) poorer. Why?
I don't know why.
I'll guess your answer might be infrastructure?
I agree we should be borrowing heavily in these times of low interest rates (which won't be along for much longer by my reading.)
Infrastructure + Skills + Local Autonomy is the magic recipe.
Like the Local Autonomy that got us out of the EU you mean
Sorry, couldn't resist.
There are some insights there imo, and i agree with the previous comment that pure Thatcherism won't meet the requirement.
To me "local autonomy" or "strategic autonomy" (to borrow a phrase) is quite important post-Brexit.
I'm quite surprised that strategic industrial/trade assets continue to be (sorry) spaffed away, even when we know that guarantees and promises are worth nothing. Inmarsat being the latest.
The one good thing about Bozza was his belief in grands projets. Now, he’s lost even that. The hopeless little twerp has been sent packing by the big boys in the Treasury.
There will be many on here who believe Boris was lying when he promised levelling up.
I don’t believe he was. His speech on levelling up - though shambling - demonstrated that he was actually right across the latest academic thinking on how to deliver growth.
At the same time, it was obvious (to me) right from the Budget in March, that this was not going to happen. Of course the spin at the time, accepted by most of the media, was of “big spending Rishi”.
I’m not sure when Boris figured out he was being played. Maybe not until very very recently.
I'd also like to take a moment to appreciate just how shit our media class is. Where is anyone asking these fucking questions of Rishi, why is the treasury using the same economic modelling that failed to predict the rise of the internet and halted our investment in fibre optic cabling in the early 2000s?
The media is full of innumerate twats who don’t do detail.
Did you know, BTW, Boris used to be a journalist?
Do you think a Treasury drone would be preferable to Boris?
Fair question.
Something I wish I understood about Sunak but don't;
Does he go along with Treasury penny pinching because he believes in it, or is he just too small in stature and ability to argue against it?
I wish he'd spent time running a spending department on the way up.
He didn't penny pinch at the last budget; he spent practically all the growth dividend didn't he?
Becoming apparent what the plan really was. Make enough bullshit promises about Brexit opportunities and levelling up to win a majority. Use this to enrich further yourself and your already wealthy mates. In this sense, the pandemic has been a Godsend. Loads more juicy contracts and appointments to trough, and 18 months where everyone was too blindsided to notice. They'll probably get away with it too.
It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808
There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.
There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.
No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.
I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.
My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.
Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?
Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.
It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.
He's made the Gove appointment. I took that to be a sign of intent but maybe I'm being a bit optimistic there.
It's also a question whether he expects Mr Gove to succeed. And what the consequences might be for Mr Gove's career.
An interesting calculation - which now has to be redone.
Should Gove now do a Johnson and resign. Become the 'True leveller' and make the leadership battle interesting. He could even drag Cummings back...
This would usefully distract him from breaking more things.
It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808
There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.
There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.
No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.
I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.
My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.
Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?
Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.
It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.
He's made the Gove appointment. I took that to be a sign of intent but maybe I'm being a bit optimistic there.
Yes, Gove has had a reputation of being able to drive change through (at Education) and of being able to form his own view (at Environment) that might surprise people in being not completely wrong all the time. So appeared to be a sign of serious intent.
Clear now that Johnson doesn't forgive him for 2016, and Gove is now in charge of a zombie department.
It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808
There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.
There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.
No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.
I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.
My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.
Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?
Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.
It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.
He's made the Gove appointment. I took that to be a sign of intent but maybe I'm being a bit optimistic there.
It's also a question whether he expects Mr Gove to succeed. And what the consequences might be for Mr Gove's career.
An interesting calculation - which now has to be redone.
Should Gove now do a Johnson and resign. Become the 'True leveller' and make the leadership battle interesting. He could even drag Cummings back...
This would also distract him from breaking more things.
Rather depends how popular Mr Gove is with both the Red Wall MPs and the old second jobs and Brexit guard, and (separately) with the CP membership. Amd who else might be more popular.
I think what's also so damning of the government decision here is that they've done it to save £4bn and at the same time their acolytes and donors have siphoned off 5x that figure in PPE and virus testing over the last 18 months. Someone in the Labour party needs to add it up and stick it on billboards all over the North.
The UK government may take the "nuclear option" of creating an independent regulator if the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) does not "put its house in order" over racism, says sports minister Nigel Huddleston.
On Tuesday, Azeem Rafiq addressed a DCMS select committee about his experiences of racism as a player at Yorkshire County Cricket Club.
I'd also like to take a moment to appreciate just how shit our media class is. Where is anyone asking these fucking questions of Rishi, why is the treasury using the same economic modelling that failed to predict the rise of the internet and halted our investment in fibre optic cabling in the early 2000s?
The media is full of innumerate twats who don’t do detail.
Did you know, BTW, Boris used to be a journalist?
Do you think a Treasury drone would be preferable to Boris?
Fair question.
Something I wish I understood about Sunak but don't;
Does he go along with Treasury penny pinching because he believes in it, or is he just too small in stature and ability to argue against it?
I wish he'd spent time running a spending department on the way up.
He didn't penny pinch at the last budget; he spent practically all the growth dividend didn't he?
I'd also like to take a moment to appreciate just how shit our media class is. Where is anyone asking these fucking questions of Rishi, why is the treasury using the same economic modelling that failed to predict the rise of the internet and halted our investment in fibre optic cabling in the early 2000s?
The media is full of innumerate twats who don’t do detail.
Did you know, BTW, Boris used to be a journalist?
Do you think a Treasury drone would be preferable to Boris?
Fair question.
Something I wish I understood about Sunak but don't;
Does he go along with Treasury penny pinching because he believes in it, or is he just too small in stature and ability to argue against it?
I wish he'd spent time running a spending department on the way up.
He didn't penny pinch at the last budget; he spent practically all the growth dividend didn't he?
1. No 2. What growth dividend
There definately was a growth dividend of IIRC about 3/4pc GDP for a year or two.
It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808
There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.
There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.
No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.
I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.
My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.
Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?
Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.
It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.
He's made the Gove appointment. I took that to be a sign of intent but maybe I'm being a bit optimistic there.
It's also a question whether he expects Mr Gove to succeed. And what the consequences might be for Mr Gove's career.
An interesting calculation - which now has to be redone.
Should Gove now do a Johnson and resign. Become the 'True leveller' and make the leadership battle interesting. He could even drag Cummings back...
This would also distract him from breaking more things.
Rather depends how popular Mr Gove is with both the Red Wall MPs and the old second jobs and Brexit guard, and (separately) with the CP membership. Amd who else might be more popular.
If Gove wants to be PM, reinstating the original rail plans and a proper plan to level up the North is the only way he could differentiate himself from the likely candidates and win over Red Wall MPs.
Final point on why we're all fucked by the Treasury's addiction to outdated models - they are unable to deal with the concept of making something where nothing previously existed. It's why we're in the slow lane for investment outside of a few specialist areas funded by the MoD budget (which the treasury has repeatedly tried to cut). If something is zero in a model it can't ever really amount to much more than that. We've failed to invest in the "zero" value places and "zero" value trade relationships because the treasury has deemed them unworthy by the models. It's a completely farcical way to run a country.
Today they have reasserted the dominance of this failed predictive model in the UK, we're all going to have to get used to it because Labour or Tory, the same wankers in the treasury pushing the same broken models will exist and the nation will be starved of any kind of investment beyond maintenance of what already exists and a few token bits here and there.
Fibre optic is the classic example of this, 20 years ago countries in Eastern Europe, Asia and elsewhere were investing billions into fibre optic cabling despite the value of the internet and ecommerce being fairly low compared to where it is now. We had that opportunity but the same arseholes in the treasury blocked it because the multiplier on increasing the value of the internet was poor at the time. The bean counters can't see beyond their spreadsheets and the rubbish outputs they get from them. We're going to keep missing opportunities until someone goes in and sacks them all.
Electric vehicles another case in point. S Korea, a smaller economy, will have perhaps a quarter of the world market for battery manufacturing. One of their leading companies was an oil refiner until recently.
I keep banging on about renewables but it is an area where we should be leading the world. We can and should be developing and building our own wind turbines and battery storage facilities for use here and export. Be developing and building our own Hydrogen from seawater processing plants for use here and export. Using the expertise and natural resources we have to make ourselves relevant and self-sufficient.
But we aren't. Because investment is communism, and takes longer than the next election. So actually still being ahead in the polls is actually Better for Britain than a viable long-term future actually.
It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808
There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.
There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.
No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.
I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.
My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.
Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?
Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.
It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.
He's made the Gove appointment. I took that to be a sign of intent but maybe I'm being a bit optimistic there.
Yep but as I've just pointed out today Gove has been given 2 smashed legs and a broken arm to deal with before he starts work.
He's now on the back foot because literally every project that has been promised and hyped up for the past 2 years has just been jettisoned.
The 'levelling up' part of the ministry name will be quietly dropped on a busy news day.
The one good thing about Bozza was his belief in grands projets. Now, he’s lost even that. The hopeless little twerp has been sent packing by the big boys in the Treasury.
There will be many on here who believe Boris was lying when he promised levelling up.
I don’t believe he was. His speech on levelling up - though shambling - demonstrated that he was actually right across the latest academic thinking on how to deliver growth.
At the same time, it was obvious (to me) right from the Budget in March, that this was not going to happen. Of course the spin at the time, accepted by most of the media, was of “big spending Rishi”.
I’m not sure when Boris figured out he was being played. Maybe not until very very recently.
You actually think he's noticed - I don't think he actually has....
I didn't read it (although I did click to confirm the gist) but I assume it's very dry and for the PB crowd.
Doesn't take long. It's shorter than some BTL postings on PB.
I'm wondering, how many others from PB alone might? Interesting to see who has responded already.
There are a lot of Yorkshire folk; wouldn't need a very high percentage of the vote to get a large bloc of MPs, and today's news on the trains and social care will help.
It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808
There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.
There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.
No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.
I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.
My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.
Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?
Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.
It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.
He's got our man from the north Govey on the job doesn't he?
Let's see how it plays out.
*I’m a great admirer of Thatcher by the way, but her economic view is not fit for 2021.
You a MMT fan?
(Apologies, since you gave me a decent response)
No.
But I do note:
- U.K. prints it’s own money. - The fear that 100% debt-to-GDP impaired economic growth has pretty much been debunked. - Interest rates are very low.
I therefore wonder why the hell we want to fetishise debt levels over the future prosperity of 65% of the country.
Anyway, my point about Thatcher was more about the general theory that you can deregulate your way to growth. That’s pretty much played out: the U.K. is low regulation, and high labour flexibility. Yet the “North” is still poor, and getting (comparatively) poorer. Why?
I don't know why.
I'll guess your answer might be infrastructure?
I agree we should be borrowing heavily in these times of low interest rates (which won't be along for much longer by my reading.)
Infrastructure + Skills + Local Autonomy is the magic recipe.
Like the Local Autonomy that got us out of the EU you mean
Sorry, couldn't resist.
There are some insights there imo, and i agree with the previous comment that pure Thatcherism won't meet the requirement.
To me "local autonomy" or "strategic autonomy" (to borrow a phrase) is quite important post-Brexit.
I'm quite surprised that strategic industrial/trade assets continue to be (sorry) spaffed away, even when we know that guarantees and promises are worth nothing. Inmarsat being the latest.
LV too.
Again, the Thatcherite view is that this is all good because foreign investment brings capital into the country and increases productivity.
There’s a lot of truth in that.
The problem is that the U.K. has pushed this model very far now. We are now a net debtor rather when it comes to capital flows, whereas for 100s of years we were a net creditor.
Does this plan have to go to a vote? If it does I could see it being lost. My sense of it is that MPs are not happy, even Southern ones who can now see being an opposition MP in the not too distant future are probably not happy that the leadership is throwing it away for £4bn.
It's almost as if the Treasury has chosen this £4bn as its hill to die on after having spent £450bn on virus measures.
I'd also like to take a moment to appreciate just how shit our media class is. Where is anyone asking these fucking questions of Rishi, why is the treasury using the same economic modelling that failed to predict the rise of the internet and halted our investment in fibre optic cabling in the early 2000s?
The media is full of innumerate twats who don’t do detail.
Did you know, BTW, Boris used to be a journalist?
Do you think a Treasury drone would be preferable to Boris?
Fair question.
Something I wish I understood about Sunak but don't;
Does he go along with Treasury penny pinching because he believes in it, or is he just too small in stature and ability to argue against it?
I wish he'd spent time running a spending department on the way up.
He didn't penny pinch at the last budget; he spent practically all the growth dividend didn't he?
1. No 2. What growth dividend
There definately was a growth dividend of IIRC about 3/4pc GDP for a year or two.
In case you didn’t notice, we had Covid and still haven’t recovered to pre-March 20 levels.
Final point on why we're all fucked by the Treasury's addiction to outdated models - they are unable to deal with the concept of making something where nothing previously existed. It's why we're in the slow lane for investment outside of a few specialist areas funded by the MoD budget (which the treasury has repeatedly tried to cut). If something is zero in a model it can't ever really amount to much more than that. We've failed to invest in the "zero" value places and "zero" value trade relationships because the treasury has deemed them unworthy by the models. It's a completely farcical way to run a country.
Today they have reasserted the dominance of this failed predictive model in the UK, we're all going to have to get used to it because Labour or Tory, the same wankers in the treasury pushing the same broken models will exist and the nation will be starved of any kind of investment beyond maintenance of what already exists and a few token bits here and there.
Fibre optic is the classic example of this, 20 years ago countries in Eastern Europe, Asia and elsewhere were investing billions into fibre optic cabling despite the value of the internet and ecommerce being fairly low compared to where it is now. We had that opportunity but the same arseholes in the treasury blocked it because the multiplier on increasing the value of the internet was poor at the time. The bean counters can't see beyond their spreadsheets and the rubbish outputs they get from them. We're going to keep missing opportunities until someone goes in and sacks them all.
Electric vehicles another case in point. S Korea, a smaller economy, will have perhaps a quarter of the world market for battery manufacturing. One of their leading companies was an oil refiner until recently.
I keep banging on about renewables but it is an area where we should be leading the world. We can and should be developing and building our own wind turbines and battery storage facilities for use here and export. Be developing and building our own Hydrogen from seawater processing plants for use here and export. Using the expertise and natural resources we have to make ourselves relevant and self-sufficient.
But we aren't. Because investment is communism, and takes longer than the next election. So actually still being ahead in the polls is actually Better for Britain than a viable long-term future actually.
Hydrogen from water is a fools errand. Thermodynamic efficiency of electrolysis is appealing... So, unless you can do something interesting with catalysts.....
The problem is that if the government does investment it tends to pick using peanuts from West Africa to provide an alternative source of oil* Then spend all the money on that.
A better plan would restructure the financial incentives away from short term investment/financial engineering in the private sector and encourage longer term schemes with a slower payback.
*I actually pitched this one to an MP who seemed very keen on picking winners. So I thought he needed an idea. He was worryingly enthused.
It’s very clear from listening to the prime minister that the rethink of the eastern leg of HS2 is all about the politics of a new trainline running through Tory seats in midlands without new stations. They’ve clearly been scarred by the first leg from London- Birmingham https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1461331841714167808
There is a “Midlands Engine” prospectus for new transport infrastructure which I presume will also never see the light of day.
There was nothing stopping Boris also funding that if he wanted to bribe those Tory seats.
No, Boris (and the country) has been fucked by Treasury and the Transport Ministry.
I’ll say it again, ex-London and the SE, U.K. economic performance is being overtaken by former Warsaw Pact countries.
My advice to young people living in the North is to move to London. Or perhaps better, just emigrate. This country doesn’t know how or doesn’t want to let you prosper.
Why can't a 'larger than life' PM with a landslide majority won substantially off the back of his own persona stand up to the Treasury?
Because he's never stood up to anyone in his life. He's always had someone to do the standing up for him. It was Gilligan for cycle lanes in London, Frost for Brexit, Cummings for various things, Bingham for vaccines.
It's clear he doesn't have anyone to drive through levelling-up, or infrastructure improvements, so it dies.
He's made the Gove appointment. I took that to be a sign of intent but maybe I'm being a bit optimistic there.
It's also a question whether he expects Mr Gove to succeed. And what the consequences might be for Mr Gove's career.
An interesting calculation - which now has to be redone.
Good point. Hates Gove because of what happened in the 2016 leadership contest and is dishing out a slow brutal retribution, putting him in a series of shitty hard work jobs where he can't shine. Latest this one. Yep, makes sense.
Final point on why we're all fucked by the Treasury's addiction to outdated models - they are unable to deal with the concept of making something where nothing previously existed. It's why we're in the slow lane for investment outside of a few specialist areas funded by the MoD budget (which the treasury has repeatedly tried to cut). If something is zero in a model it can't ever really amount to much more than that. We've failed to invest in the "zero" value places and "zero" value trade relationships because the treasury has deemed them unworthy by the models. It's a completely farcical way to run a country.
Today they have reasserted the dominance of this failed predictive model in the UK, we're all going to have to get used to it because Labour or Tory, the same wankers in the treasury pushing the same broken models will exist and the nation will be starved of any kind of investment beyond maintenance of what already exists and a few token bits here and there.
Fibre optic is the classic example of this, 20 years ago countries in Eastern Europe, Asia and elsewhere were investing billions into fibre optic cabling despite the value of the internet and ecommerce being fairly low compared to where it is now. We had that opportunity but the same arseholes in the treasury blocked it because the multiplier on increasing the value of the internet was poor at the time. The bean counters can't see beyond their spreadsheets and the rubbish outputs they get from them. We're going to keep missing opportunities until someone goes in and sacks them all.
Electric vehicles another case in point. S Korea, a smaller economy, will have perhaps a quarter of the world market for battery manufacturing. One of their leading companies was an oil refiner until recently.
I keep banging on about renewables but it is an area where we should be leading the world. We can and should be developing and building our own wind turbines and battery storage facilities for use here and export. Be developing and building our own Hydrogen from seawater processing plants for use here and export. Using the expertise and natural resources we have to make ourselves relevant and self-sufficient.
But we aren't. Because investment is communism, and takes longer than the next election. So actually still being ahead in the polls is actually Better for Britain than a viable long-term future actually.
Hydrogen from water is a fools errand. Thermodynamic efficiency of electrolysis is appealing... So, unless you can do something interesting with catalysts.....
The problem is that if the government does investment it tends to pick using peanuts from West Africa to provide an alternative source of oil* Then spend all the money on that.
A better plan would restructure the financial incentives away from short term investment/financial engineering in the private sector and encourage longer term schemes with a slower payback.
*I actually pitched this one to an MP who seemed very keen on picking winners. So I thought he needed an idea. He was worryingly enthused.
At least it wasn't East Africa, with old Sherman tanks to provide the oomph.
Boris is still leading on Gross Positive Leader Ratings, but Sir Keir is in the lead on Net Satisfaction.
The problem with the satisfaction test is that the question conflates "I like X" with "I think X is being successful" (and sometimes a bit of "I want X to do badly so I'm satisfied that he's crap"). Thus good poll ratings for X can push up a "doing well" rating with no actual change in whether people think X is any good. And vice versa.
Best PM may be better, though that tends to have an incumbency bias, since it's easier to imagine a current PM as suitable for the job.
Apparently all the shrewdies knew the Conservatives were on course to win a majority in 2015 because Leader Ratings are more useful than VI. Mike Smithson used to think, and cited polling scientists as agreeing with him, that Gross Positives were more important than Net Satisfaction as well, but that seems to be no longer the case
Final point on why we're all fucked by the Treasury's addiction to outdated models - they are unable to deal with the concept of making something where nothing previously existed. It's why we're in the slow lane for investment outside of a few specialist areas funded by the MoD budget (which the treasury has repeatedly tried to cut). If something is zero in a model it can't ever really amount to much more than that. We've failed to invest in the "zero" value places and "zero" value trade relationships because the treasury has deemed them unworthy by the models. It's a completely farcical way to run a country.
Today they have reasserted the dominance of this failed predictive model in the UK, we're all going to have to get used to it because Labour or Tory, the same wankers in the treasury pushing the same broken models will exist and the nation will be starved of any kind of investment beyond maintenance of what already exists and a few token bits here and there.
Fibre optic is the classic example of this, 20 years ago countries in Eastern Europe, Asia and elsewhere were investing billions into fibre optic cabling despite the value of the internet and ecommerce being fairly low compared to where it is now. We had that opportunity but the same arseholes in the treasury blocked it because the multiplier on increasing the value of the internet was poor at the time. The bean counters can't see beyond their spreadsheets and the rubbish outputs they get from them. We're going to keep missing opportunities until someone goes in and sacks them all.
Electric vehicles another case in point. S Korea, a smaller economy, will have perhaps a quarter of the world market for battery manufacturing. One of their leading companies was an oil refiner until recently.
I keep banging on about renewables but it is an area where we should be leading the world. We can and should be developing and building our own wind turbines and battery storage facilities for use here and export. Be developing and building our own Hydrogen from seawater processing plants for use here and export. Using the expertise and natural resources we have to make ourselves relevant and self-sufficient.
But we aren't. Because investment is communism, and takes longer than the next election. So actually still being ahead in the polls is actually Better for Britain than a viable long-term future actually.
Hydrogen from water is a fools errand. Thermodynamic efficiency of electrolysis is appealing... So, unless you can do something interesting with catalysts.....
The problem is that if the government does investment it tends to pick using peanuts from West Africa to provide an alternative source of oil* Then spend all the money on that.
A better plan would restructure the financial incentives away from short term investment/financial engineering in the private sector and encourage longer term schemes with a slower payback.
*I actually pitched this one to an MP who seemed very keen on picking winners. So I thought he needed an idea. He was worryingly enthused.
At least it wasn't East Africa, with old Sherman tanks to provide the oomph.
Yes. And formerly active in and extremely knowledgeable about the Conservative Party. Called the loss of majority the weekend before 2017 from his canvassing in Yorkshire. Astonishing folk on here so much that a few suspected his account had been hacked.
Final point on why we're all fucked by the Treasury's addiction to outdated models - they are unable to deal with the concept of making something where nothing previously existed. It's why we're in the slow lane for investment outside of a few specialist areas funded by the MoD budget (which the treasury has repeatedly tried to cut). If something is zero in a model it can't ever really amount to much more than that. We've failed to invest in the "zero" value places and "zero" value trade relationships because the treasury has deemed them unworthy by the models. It's a completely farcical way to run a country.
Today they have reasserted the dominance of this failed predictive model in the UK, we're all going to have to get used to it because Labour or Tory, the same wankers in the treasury pushing the same broken models will exist and the nation will be starved of any kind of investment beyond maintenance of what already exists and a few token bits here and there.
Fibre optic is the classic example of this, 20 years ago countries in Eastern Europe, Asia and elsewhere were investing billions into fibre optic cabling despite the value of the internet and ecommerce being fairly low compared to where it is now. We had that opportunity but the same arseholes in the treasury blocked it because the multiplier on increasing the value of the internet was poor at the time. The bean counters can't see beyond their spreadsheets and the rubbish outputs they get from them. We're going to keep missing opportunities until someone goes in and sacks them all.
Electric vehicles another case in point. S Korea, a smaller economy, will have perhaps a quarter of the world market for battery manufacturing. One of their leading companies was an oil refiner until recently.
I keep banging on about renewables but it is an area where we should be leading the world. We can and should be developing and building our own wind turbines and battery storage facilities for use here and export. Be developing and building our own Hydrogen from seawater processing plants for use here and export. Using the expertise and natural resources we have to make ourselves relevant and self-sufficient.
But we aren't. Because investment is communism, and takes longer than the next election. So actually still being ahead in the polls is actually Better for Britain than a viable long-term future actually.
Hydrogen from water is a fools errand. Thermodynamic efficiency of electrolysis is appealing... So, unless you can do something interesting with catalysts.....
The problem is that if the government does investment it tends to pick using peanuts from West Africa to provide an alternative source of oil* Then spend all the money on that.
A better plan would restructure the financial incentives away from short term investment/financial engineering in the private sector and encourage longer term schemes with a slower payback.
*I actually pitched this one to an MP who seemed very keen on picking winners. So I thought he needed an idea. He was worryingly enthused.
But if you have an endless supply of electricity (when the wind blows) and nothing else it can be used for?
I'd also like to take a moment to appreciate just how shit our media class is. Where is anyone asking these fucking questions of Rishi, why is the treasury using the same economic modelling that failed to predict the rise of the internet and halted our investment in fibre optic cabling in the early 2000s?
The media is full of innumerate twats who don’t do detail.
Did you know, BTW, Boris used to be a journalist?
Do you think a Treasury drone would be preferable to Boris?
Fair question.
Something I wish I understood about Sunak but don't;
Does he go along with Treasury penny pinching because he believes in it, or is he just too small in stature and ability to argue against it?
I wish he'd spent time running a spending department on the way up.
He didn't penny pinch at the last budget; he spent practically all the growth dividend didn't he?
1. No 2. What growth dividend
There definately was a growth dividend of IIRC about 3/4pc GDP for a year or two.
In case you didn’t notice, we had Covid and still haven’t recovered to pre-March 20 levels.
Talk of a dividend is Treasury spin.
They had more more cash in the current account than they suspected and Rishi spaffed it all.
I agree that a bit of Keynensianism wouldn't go a miss given low interest rates (but I guess that was kinda the furlough scheme) but he certainly wasn't penny pinching last budget.
Yes. And formerly active in and extremely knowledgeable about the Conservative Party. Called the loss of majority the weekend before 2017 from his canvassing in Yorkshire. Astonishing folk on here so much that a few suspected his account had been hacked.
He did, and people did think that. He also rowed back on the comment later that day
Final point on why we're all fucked by the Treasury's addiction to outdated models - they are unable to deal with the concept of making something where nothing previously existed. It's why we're in the slow lane for investment outside of a few specialist areas funded by the MoD budget (which the treasury has repeatedly tried to cut). If something is zero in a model it can't ever really amount to much more than that. We've failed to invest in the "zero" value places and "zero" value trade relationships because the treasury has deemed them unworthy by the models. It's a completely farcical way to run a country.
Today they have reasserted the dominance of this failed predictive model in the UK, we're all going to have to get used to it because Labour or Tory, the same wankers in the treasury pushing the same broken models will exist and the nation will be starved of any kind of investment beyond maintenance of what already exists and a few token bits here and there.
Fibre optic is the classic example of this, 20 years ago countries in Eastern Europe, Asia and elsewhere were investing billions into fibre optic cabling despite the value of the internet and ecommerce being fairly low compared to where it is now. We had that opportunity but the same arseholes in the treasury blocked it because the multiplier on increasing the value of the internet was poor at the time. The bean counters can't see beyond their spreadsheets and the rubbish outputs they get from them. We're going to keep missing opportunities until someone goes in and sacks them all.
Electric vehicles another case in point. S Korea, a smaller economy, will have perhaps a quarter of the world market for battery manufacturing. One of their leading companies was an oil refiner until recently.
I keep banging on about renewables but it is an area where we should be leading the world. We can and should be developing and building our own wind turbines and battery storage facilities for use here and export. Be developing and building our own Hydrogen from seawater processing plants for use here and export. Using the expertise and natural resources we have to make ourselves relevant and self-sufficient.
But we aren't. Because investment is communism, and takes longer than the next election. So actually still being ahead in the polls is actually Better for Britain than a viable long-term future actually.
Hydrogen from water is a fools errand. Thermodynamic efficiency of electrolysis is appealing... So, unless you can do something interesting with catalysts.....
The problem is that if the government does investment it tends to pick using peanuts from West Africa to provide an alternative source of oil* Then spend all the money on that.
A better plan would restructure the financial incentives away from short term investment/financial engineering in the private sector and encourage longer term schemes with a slower payback.
*I actually pitched this one to an MP who seemed very keen on picking winners. So I thought he needed an idea. He was worryingly enthused.
But if you have an endless supply of electricity (when the wind blows) and nothing else it can be used for?
I'd also like to take a moment to appreciate just how shit our media class is. Where is anyone asking these fucking questions of Rishi, why is the treasury using the same economic modelling that failed to predict the rise of the internet and halted our investment in fibre optic cabling in the early 2000s?
The media is full of innumerate twats who don’t do detail.
Did you know, BTW, Boris used to be a journalist?
Do you think a Treasury drone would be preferable to Boris?
Fair question.
Something I wish I understood about Sunak but don't;
Does he go along with Treasury penny pinching because he believes in it, or is he just too small in stature and ability to argue against it?
I wish he'd spent time running a spending department on the way up.
He didn't penny pinch at the last budget; he spent practically all the growth dividend didn't he?
1. No 2. What growth dividend
There definately was a growth dividend of IIRC about 3/4pc GDP for a year or two.
In case you didn’t notice, we had Covid and still haven’t recovered to pre-March 20 levels.
Talk of a dividend is Treasury spin.
They had more more cash in the current account than they suspected and Rishi spaffed it all.
I agree that a bit of Keynensianism wouldn't go a miss given low interest rates (but I guess that was kinda the furlough scheme) but he certainly wasn't penny pinching last budget.
Yes. And formerly active in and extremely knowledgeable about the Conservative Party. Called the loss of majority the weekend before 2017 from his canvassing in Yorkshire. Astonishing folk on here so much that a few suspected his account had been hacked.
Can one be a member of both?
Someone posted 'Very sharp punter and all round decent chap" And I'd vote for that!
Yes. And formerly active in and extremely knowledgeable about the Conservative Party. Called the loss of majority the weekend before 2017 from his canvassing in Yorkshire. Astonishing folk on here so much that a few suspected his account had been hacked.
That someone like David should find himself homeless thanks to the Tories turning into the Johnson tribute act party should given some of them at least pause to reflect.
PB is weighted towards railway fans. It may be news to many that everyone in the north of England travels by car (in the north of Scotland also boat and small plane) and plans to carry on doing so. This is especially true of those who bother to vote and live in Tory or Tory winnable seats.
The number of people appalled by the Aeschylean tragedy of HSwhatever number being cancelled with be dwarfed by the indifferent and those pleased that their rhubarb beds and whippet race tracks are not being subject to compulsory purchase orders to build it.
As a bona fide Yorkshireman I can assure you this is damaging to the Tories.
It's fitting this narrative that Government is prepared to spaff up billions on London and the South but not the North.
It is indeed but as I've argued for years if you really wanted to help the North you'd recognise the North uses roads not rails for almost all transport and economic activity and that rails are a teeny, tiny obsessive primarily for people who work in Manchester or London.
If you really wanted to help the North then tens of billions invested in new motorways and roads - actually new motorways not turning hard shoulders into camera-operated lanes - would help the North far, far more.
How does that get you anywhere any faster? - it may remove a few traffic jams (I would however seriously doubt it) but you can still only travel at 70mph.
70mph is reasonably fast. The problem is both that you can't always do 70mp and that you're forced to go on a much longer journey because you have to follow the limited amount of roads that are available.
If you were to build a string of new motorways, it would remove a lot of traffic jams, as vehicles wouldn't all be piled into the same pinch points like the M60 or M6/M62 interchange. But equally importantly it would allow more direct routes, so you wouldn't be compelled to go on stupidly long detours simply because the limited motorway network takes you that way.
I gave the example earlier today of Aintree to Bolton. They're 22 miles apart so should be about 18 minutes apart at 70mph but instead its a 1 hour journey. As the crow flies that's basically a straight line West to East and the M58 takes you halfway there in a virtually straight line. But because the M58 was only half-built, that's not the route to go.
Instead according to Google Maps the quickest route to take is to go South on the M57 past Knowsley until you reach the M62 interchange, then East on the M62 past Warrington until you get to Eccles, Manchester and the M60, through Manchester on the M60 until you reach the M61, then back North again on the A666.
What should be an 18 minutes point to point 70mph journey instead takes an hour, across four different motorways, going South then North again, and through some of the most congested roads in the Northwest in Manchester because there is no alternative built.
Its maddening.
But there isn't enough demand to justify a direct road from Aintree to Bolton, you can only build the roads that have sufficient demand to warrant them being built.
And for reasons why your dream road will never be built see @MaxPB and @Gardenwalker 's discussion regarding Gravity models and their inability to go beyond amplifying what already exists.
Well I agree with Max (and you?) that the models are flawed.
The latent demand is there it just needs to be tapped into by building it.
Warrington is a good example of what can be. Warrington is one of the fastest growing towns in the North for a while now. Is that because you can get an express train from Warrington to London? Because you can. No, is it heck.
Its because the town is well served by motorways. Along the north we've got the M62, to the East we've got the M6, along the South we've got the M56. As a result a lot of development has been ongoing facilitated by that. The J8 of the M62 (Burtonwood Interchange) with the Omega development has seen lots of businesses opening up and lots of homes have been built nearby too.
The biggest problem is that any time there's a collision on any of those three motorways in our vicinity then the whole town becomes a rat run that gets ground to a halt as people use the town as a bypass.
But overall the roads are incredible useful. If 'levelling up' were to be taken seriously, there should be a network of such motorways, like the tube network, criss-crossing the North. Finish the M58 properly upto the M61. Build my proposed M580 running from Liverpool through to Rochdale and connecting to the M62 East of Manchester. And so much more.
There's so much opportunity if we tap into it. Marginally faster trains or marginally more train capacity isn't it though.
My dad did lots of work on sewage farms. Tomato plants were everywhere for this reason.
As far as I know he was never brave enough to pick any ...
As I may have mentioned my dad fought in the Korean War. Though he didn’t talk that much abut it, one thing he did say was that the whole country smelled of shit. Human excrement was the main fertiliser and it being a largely agricultural country, the reek was pervasive. Bully beef and tinned jam all round..
I lived in Vienna for a while and that's an abiding memory I have from there, the smell of shit. Horses the source in this case, which they have a lot of, trotting around the place, but still not a great aroma, especially after a while.
Yes. And formerly active in and extremely knowledgeable about the Conservative Party. Called the loss of majority the weekend before 2017 from his canvassing in Yorkshire. Astonishing folk on here so much that a few suspected his account had been hacked.
He did, and people did think that. He also rowed back on the comment later that day
Did he? The signs were all there in 2017. Folk simply refused to dispassionately see what was before their very eyes.
Edit. Quite a number hours after the first results. "Worst exit poll in history."
The Man in Seat 61 @seatsixtyone · 25m How cancelling HS2’s eastern branch will create an east/west divide between Manchester & Leeds, both for inter-city travel & expansion of local/regional transport.
There is a serious point there - I've considered voting YP in the past, but when I looked into the local council candidates a few years back they seemed to include "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists". Things may have changed. The YP will need to get their act together if they want to become a serious force.
It'll be interesting to see how it works out for David.
Comments
You have Leeds to Sheffield, Sheffield to Derby, Leeds to Derby, Grantham to Peterborough. Heck you even get more trains from Leeds to Wakefield / Selby just by increasing the capacity in and out of Leeds.
If the treasury are merely looking at just the end points they've missed all the gains in between that the extra capacity opens up and that is a flaw within their modelling that could be seized upon.
But also, these kind of arguments essentially stop the U.K. from doing ANYTHING.
Except, from about 2000 to 2015, in London.
Which worked pretty well.
Did you know, BTW, Boris used to be a journalist?
I was doing the West Highland Way but my feet had been consumed by blistersnso had to stop half way. Turned up at the station in the early afternoon and the last train to Glasgow had gone. Had to stay in a YMCA overnight and caught the first train the next day which want until about 10. By the time I got to Glasgow I had missed the last train to Reading so another overnight stay. Finally got home after 48 hours!
The North East, East Midlands, and Yorkshire & Humber already receive the lowest public investment per head in rail.
Cutting HS2's eastern leg is the opposite of levelling up and a disaster for those regions.
https://twitter.com/larry_turner/status/1461321128039915521/
For example, the US Government uses similar models.
These predict, for example, that reducing the cost of space launch would destroy billions of dollars of value. Because massively reducing the costs of something is famous for destroying an industry.
Imagine you're an MP looking at something you think is in the national interest but is bad for your constituency and almost everyone who lives there opposes it.
Do you support it, knowing that this means you're out at the next election because your main opponent will make sure to be noisily on the 'right' side of the argument?
Or do you put your own views aside (given your vote won't be make or break) and represent your constituents with the additional benefit of continuing your parliamentary career?
Almost all do the latter and tbh I reckon I probably would. Therefore, since I can imagine I would, I can't quite go with your "two-faced shits" description.
Something I wish I understood about Sunak but don't;
Does he go along with Treasury penny pinching because he believes in it, or is he just too small in stature and ability to argue against it?
I wish he'd spent time running a spending department on the way up.
Best PM may be better, though that tends to have an incumbency bias, since it's easier to imagine a current PM as suitable for the job.
S Korea, a smaller economy, will have perhaps a quarter of the world market for battery manufacturing.
One of their leading companies was an oil refiner until recently.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1461359504310759434
With 100 2019 mainly Red Wall type MPs who now have less care of what whips tell them - this could be lost.
Be interesting to see if plans are pulled or Johnson tries to win the vote.
He'll not have his name on anything except a remaindered book cover at this rate.
To me "local autonomy" or "strategic autonomy" (to borrow a phrase) is quite important post-Brexit.
I'm quite surprised that strategic industrial/trade assets continue to be (sorry) spaffed away, even when we know that guarantees and promises are worth nothing. Inmarsat being the latest.
I don’t believe he was. His speech on levelling up - though shambling - demonstrated that he was actually right across the latest academic thinking on how to deliver growth.
At the same time, it was obvious (to me) right from the Budget in March, that this was not going to happen. Of course the spin at the time, accepted by most of the media, was of “big spending Rishi”.
I’m not sure when Boris figured out he was being played. Maybe not until very very recently.
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1461360223369654273
Make enough bullshit promises about Brexit opportunities and levelling up to win a majority.
Use this to enrich further yourself and your already wealthy mates.
In this sense, the pandemic has been a Godsend.
Loads more juicy contracts and appointments to trough, and 18 months where everyone was too blindsided to notice.
They'll probably get away with it too.
This would usefully distract him from breaking more things.
Clear now that Johnson doesn't forgive him for 2016, and Gove is now in charge of a zombie department.
The UK government may take the "nuclear option" of creating an independent regulator if the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) does not "put its house in order" over racism, says sports minister Nigel Huddleston.
On Tuesday, Azeem Rafiq addressed a DCMS select committee about his experiences of racism as a player at Yorkshire County Cricket Club.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/59334174
2. What growth dividend
But we aren't. Because investment is communism, and takes longer than the next election. So actually still being ahead in the polls is actually Better for Britain than a viable long-term future actually.
The harrying of the north is complete.
I'm wondering, how many others from PB alone might? Interesting to see who has responded already.
There are a lot of Yorkshire folk; wouldn't need a very high percentage of the vote to get a large bloc of MPs, and today's news on the trains and social care will help.
Again, the Thatcherite view is that this is all good because foreign investment brings capital into the country and increases productivity.
There’s a lot of truth in that.
The problem is that the U.K. has pushed this model very far now. We are now a net debtor rather when it comes to capital flows, whereas for 100s of years we were a net creditor.
It's almost as if the Treasury has chosen this £4bn as its hill to die on after having spent £450bn on virus measures.
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1461361457681997833?t=wAe5kF_rwRtYq1DGJeG_Bw&s=19
Talk of a dividend is Treasury spin.
The problem is that if the government does investment it tends to pick using peanuts from West Africa to provide an alternative source of oil* Then spend all the money on that.
A better plan would restructure the financial incentives away from short term investment/financial engineering in the private sector and encourage longer term schemes with a slower payback.
*I actually pitched this one to an MP who seemed very keen on picking winners. So I thought he needed an idea. He was worryingly enthused.
Very sharp punter and all round decent chap.
The first time it will be really picked up on is when Martin Lewis looks at it and reports the obvious flaws.
But people fall for this stuff all the time....
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1461364321020104710
https://youtu.be/oe1BC0zNUcE?t=182
Astonishing folk on here so much that a few suspected his account had been hacked.
I agree that a bit of Keynensianism wouldn't go a miss given low interest rates (but I guess that was kinda the furlough scheme) but he certainly wasn't penny pinching last budget.
But good point re Martin Lewis.
Someone posted 'Very sharp punter and all round decent chap"
And I'd vote for that!
The latent demand is there it just needs to be tapped into by building it.
Warrington is a good example of what can be. Warrington is one of the fastest growing towns in the North for a while now. Is that because you can get an express train from Warrington to London? Because you can. No, is it heck.
Its because the town is well served by motorways. Along the north we've got the M62, to the East we've got the M6, along the South we've got the M56. As a result a lot of development has been ongoing facilitated by that. The J8 of the M62 (Burtonwood Interchange) with the Omega development has seen lots of businesses opening up and lots of homes have been built nearby too.
The biggest problem is that any time there's a collision on any of those three motorways in our vicinity then the whole town becomes a rat run that gets ground to a halt as people use the town as a bypass.
But overall the roads are incredible useful. If 'levelling up' were to be taken seriously, there should be a network of such motorways, like the tube network, criss-crossing the North. Finish the M58 properly upto the M61. Build my proposed M580 running from Liverpool through to Rochdale and connecting to the M62 East of Manchester. And so much more.
There's so much opportunity if we tap into it. Marginally faster trains or marginally more train capacity isn't it though.
But anyway, enough of the crap anecdotes.
That might be a sticking point for some in the Yorkshire Party. LCCC membership may also be an issue.
Good 27%
Bad 28%
Neither 18%
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1461365675939667978?t=iqBnOdHpZCqpF3DCCnkFww&s=19
👧👴 The MPs' second jobs debate has shown the remarkable rise of the 2019 Tory intake.
The age split in the Conservative parliamentary party has become "the red wall versus red corduroy", with big implications for policy.
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1461361047059660813
Latest @FinancialTimes analysis https://www.ft.com/content/63fb5fbe-90a4-4f4e-80fb-19d5dab028c7
The signs were all there in 2017. Folk simply refused to dispassionately see what was before their very eyes.
Edit. Quite a number hours after the first results.
"Worst exit poll in history."
@seatsixtyone
·
25m
How cancelling HS2’s eastern branch will create an east/west divide between Manchester & Leeds, both for inter-city travel & expansion of local/regional transport.
https://twitter.com/seatsixtyone/status/1461360154801102866
It'll be interesting to see how it works out for David.