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Johnson’s Nightmare November continues with another bad poll – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 18 in General
imageJohnson’s Nightmare November continues with another bad poll – politicalbetting.com

Yet another pollster, Survation, has the Tories losing their poll lead although it has the main parties level pegging.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,975
    Test
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853
    If Boris thinks that poll looks bad - wait a few weeks as the infrastructure and Social care changes start to make headlines.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,476
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/wearing-masks-single-most-effective-way-to-tackle-covid-study-finds

    One for the PB mask haters. As someone who attended one of my first big social functions maskless on Saturday night and now has Covid I support its message. Wear a mask.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,502
    1992 redux ?

    The Tories are in a slightly weaker position out of the previous GE compared to 1987 though. The length of time with a Tory Gov't is similar though.
    Other parallel is possibly 2010.
  • pingping Posts: 1,421
    edited November 18
    Tbf the headline poll numbers aren’t actually that bad, considering.

    Labour should be disappointed.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,946
    edited November 18
    The bad news for Johnson is that even a blind man on a galloping camel riding through Hartlepool now understands that for all his bonhomie he's a lying cheating crook.

    The only thing standing between the Tories and oblivion is a Labour Party and leader which looks convincing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516
    eek said:

    If Boris thinks that poll looks bad - wait a few weeks as the infrastructure and Social care changes start to make headlines.

    The lifetime social care care costs cap of £86,000 though will be a net positive in most parts of the country and especially those with higher house prices
  • Labour Party member and a doctor, Gilbert House, has been suspended from the party for saying only women experience the menopause.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,502
    edited November 18
    ping said:

    Tbf the headline poll numbers aren’t actually that bad, considering.

    Labour should be disappointed.

    One thing to bear in mind is that Labour can get into power whilst being behind the Tories in VI% at the next election.

    The Tory lead is 11.7%, Tory Maj 78....

    Seats gained by Lab on swings / Total seats lost by Tories with swing against the Tories (& since the DUP don't run in GB, they're all broadly anti Tory parties)

    1% 8 / 14
    2% 19 / 26
    3% 28 / 40
    4% 42 / 56
    5% 51 / 70

    I think if push and shove come the DUP (Or whichever unionist party is the main one in NI) will c&s the Tories again over Starmer.

    So Starmer likely needs a swing over 4.5% to gain power. Which is a couple of % behind.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,622
    Roger said:

    The bad news for Johnson is that even a blind man on a galloping camel riding through Hartlepool now understands that for all his bonhomie he's a lying cheating crook.

    Impressively there are still 35% (honesty) 32% (integrity) who haven't yet got the memo.
  • https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/wearing-masks-single-most-effective-way-to-tackle-covid-study-finds

    One for the PB mask haters. As someone who attended one of my first big social functions maskless on Saturday night and now has Covid I support its message. Wear a mask.

    I cannot see what the issue is. We are in a global pandemic. Wear a mask FFS. The sooner we are out of it you will hopefully never have to wear one again.

    One more time: Wear a mask FFS!

    PS: Sorry to hear you have it OLB. I hope you make a speedy recovery.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476
    eek said:

    If Boris thinks that poll looks bad - wait a few weeks as the infrastructure and Social care changes start to make headlines.

    I cannot see Johnson being given too long to turn this around. He has made too many mis steps here. IT is kust one error after another after another. All self inflicted. Labour are not having to do anything. I just get the feeling his own team are running out of patience with him.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,946

    Roger said:

    The bad news for Johnson is that even a blind man on a galloping camel riding through Hartlepool now understands that for all his bonhomie he's a lying cheating crook.

    Impressively there are still 35% (honesty) 32% (integrity) who haven't yet got the memo.
    Incredible!
  • ping said:

    Tbf the headline poll numbers aren’t actually that bad, considering.

    Labour should be disappointed.

    I don't think that should be any consolation for those that thought Boris Johnson was an appropriate person to put in charge of anything, let alone a country.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476

    Labour Party member and a doctor, Gilbert House, has been suspended from the party for saying only women experience the menopause.

    Wow, man suspended for speaking the truth.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    If Boris thinks that poll looks bad - wait a few weeks as the infrastructure and Social care changes start to make headlines.

    The lifetime social care care costs cap of £86,000 though will be a net positive in most parts of the country and especially those with higher house prices
    But disproportionality impacts the poor because for them the only bit that counts is the percentage they pay not the full cost.

    So a rich person starts getting 100% free care after 5 years while a poor person starts getting it after 15 years.

    Nice to know you wish to screw the inheritance of people with little while allowing your rich mates to receive a large inheritance.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,476

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/wearing-masks-single-most-effective-way-to-tackle-covid-study-finds

    One for the PB mask haters. As someone who attended one of my first big social functions maskless on Saturday night and now has Covid I support its message. Wear a mask.

    I cannot see what the issue is. We are in a global pandemic. Wear a mask FFS. The sooner we are out of it you will hopefully never have to wear one again.

    One more time: Wear a mask FFS!

    PS: Sorry to hear you have it OLB. I hope you make a speedy recovery.
    Thanks Nigel, appreciate your kind words.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 358
    Isn’t there an argument that infrastructure projects are long term not short term solution? If rail a 19th century answer, road a 20th century answer, what is 21st century smart digital answer? So what is best planning for the future?

    Less post trains and parcel rooms at stations. Wfh, less commuting. Zoom, less business travel. Work meet ups at hotel airports or countryside hotels instead.
    Amazon delivering using drones.

    Maybe doesn’t need rail or road expansion?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,633

    Labour Party member and a doctor, Gilbert House, has been suspended from the party for saying only women experience the menopause.

    There's been talk in recent years about a male menopause. Maybe that's what the Labour party are thinking about? :innocent:
  • Taz said:

    eek said:

    If Boris thinks that poll looks bad - wait a few weeks as the infrastructure and Social care changes start to make headlines.

    I cannot see Johnson being given too long to turn this around. He has made too many mis steps here. IT is kust one error after another after another. All self inflicted. Labour are not having to do anything. I just get the feeling his own team are running out of patience with him.
    I do hope you are right, but fear they may allow him to bump along from one crisis to another for the simple reason that he is still popular with the Tory grassroots who are too dumb or stubborn to realise he is a calamity.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,633
    Gary Neville
    @GNev2
    ·
    1h
    The scrapping of a major Northern Rail Route should be the final straw for this government with their “ Levelling Up “ pledge . This along with monumental corruption , the lack of planning for a post Brexit economy and their COVID ineptness should be enough to bring them down!
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853
    edited November 18

    Isn’t there an argument that infrastructure projects are long term not short term solution? If rail a 19th century answer, road a 20th century answer, what is 21st century smart digital answer? So what is best planning for the future?

    Less post trains and parcel rooms at stations. Wfh, less commuting. Zoom, less business travel. Work meet ups at hotel airports or countryside hotels instead.
    Amazon delivering using drones.

    Maybe doesn’t need rail or road expansion?

    Nope I spent 5 years prior to Covid flying across Europe because you can't deliver projects remotely (tech wise you can, but the change management side falls apart unless people think they have had a say in the changes and that really can only be done in person),

    Demand for long distance travel will increase in the future not decrease (it's already close to pre covid levels).
  • Taz said:

    Labour Party member and a doctor, Gilbert House, has been suspended from the party for saying only women experience the menopause.

    Wow, man suspended for speaking the truth.
    Utterly ridiculous. If anyone wonders why there are still folk who would like to have an alternative to Johnson, but would still be fearful of putting a cross in the red box then this is part of the answer. Oh, and Angela Rayner!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,633
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    If Boris thinks that poll looks bad - wait a few weeks as the infrastructure and Social care changes start to make headlines.

    The lifetime social care care costs cap of £86,000 though will be a net positive in most parts of the country and especially those with higher house prices
    But disproportionality impacts the poor because for them the only bit that counts is the percentage they pay not the full cost.

    So a rich person starts getting 100% free care after 5 years while a poor person starts getting it after 15 years.

    Nice to know you wish to screw the inheritance of people with little while allowing your rich mates to receive a large inheritance.
    Chris Smyth
    @Smyth_Chris
    ·
    44m
    Andrew Dilnot - author of original plan for care cap - slams this change before MPs, saying he is "very disappointed" saying "the less well off will not gain any benefit from the cap" as a result
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853
    From https://twitter.com/OnTheWoolsack/status/1461287334842880007

    Only the U.K. could see an opportunity to connect its second and third largest cities, both growing quickly and generating a bucket of good new jobs, and cancel the transport link for…wait for it… £4 billion

    That is 8 days of NHS spending, or the cost of four naval destroyers
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476

    Taz said:

    Labour Party member and a doctor, Gilbert House, has been suspended from the party for saying only women experience the menopause.

    Wow, man suspended for speaking the truth.
    Utterly ridiculous. If anyone wonders why there are still folk who would like to have an alternative to Johnson, but would still be fearful of putting a cross in the red box then this is part of the answer. Oh, and Angela Rayner!
    Rayner seems to be there to enthuse the base and the membership but she is very marmite.

    Labour seem to be running a joint leadership ticket. Starmer seems unable to assert his authority and leadership. It seems a mess.

    I vote labour at GE’s with no enthusiasm, I don’t think I am going to bother with any party in 2023/4. Labour, once the party of the working class is now the party that has subcontracted out its LGBT Policy to Stonewall, its Green policies to Exctinction Rebellion and its Diversity policy to BLM. IT doesn’t seem to want to give a voice to working class communities it used to represent, indeed it seems to hold them in contempt.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    If Boris thinks that poll looks bad - wait a few weeks as the infrastructure and Social care changes start to make headlines.

    I cannot see Johnson being given too long to turn this around. He has made too many mis steps here. IT is kust one error after another after another. All self inflicted. Labour are not having to do anything. I just get the feeling his own team are running out of patience with him.
    I do hope you are right, but fear they may allow him to bump along from one crisis to another for the simple reason that he is still popular with the Tory grassroots who are too dumb or stubborn to realise he is a calamity.
    It was the same with Thatcher. They seem to think because they like him the rest of the country does. He seems to have been caught out. His popularity is in rapid ascent. Even if the membership cannot see it his MP’s surely can.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,502
    eek said:

    From https://twitter.com/OnTheWoolsack/status/1461287334842880007

    Only the U.K. could see an opportunity to connect its second and third largest cities, both growing quickly and generating a bucket of good new jobs, and cancel the transport link for…wait for it… £4 billion

    That is 8 days of NHS spending, or the cost of four naval destroyers

    It all smacks of strategic planners that have never got out of London.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,995

    Labour Party member and a doctor, Gilbert House, has been suspended from the party for saying only women experience the menopause.

    There's been talk in recent years about a male menopause. Maybe that's what the Labour party are thinking about? :innocent:
    Does it involve getting balder, fatter, grumpier and suffering far worse hangovers? Asking for a friend.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,633
    Shapps claiming this dog's breakfast is levelling up. Greatest act of levelling up ever.
  • Labour Party member and a doctor, Gilbert House, has been suspended from the party for saying only women experience the menopause.

    There's been talk in recent years about a male menopause. Maybe that's what the Labour party are thinking about? :innocent:
    Isn't it more that trans-men will experience the menopause?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,633
    Surely Shapps has just misled the House.

    Birmingham to Nottingham - 27 minutes under his plan.

    "city centre to city centre" he said.

    Is that right? The faster line will go to E Mids Parkway - miles and miles from Nottm city centre. From there it must be what 15 mins to nottm on normal lines? So Brum city to Parkway is < 15 mins??

  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476

    Shapps claiming this dog's breakfast is levelling up. Greatest act of levelling up ever.

    He is fooling no one.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,633
    "Complete sell out" says Labour shadow transport sec
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,633
    "This is the Great Train Robbery. Robbing the North" - Labour

    Good line
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,869
    edited November 18

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/wearing-masks-single-most-effective-way-to-tackle-covid-study-finds

    One for the PB mask haters. As someone who attended one of my first big social functions maskless on Saturday night and now has Covid I support its message. Wear a mask.

    Quite striking how few studies were included in the meta-analyses. Not a criticism of the review, just shows the difficulty in many of the included studies being (a) crap, (b) poorly reported or (c) both. Would be nice to see a graphic on overall effect directions in as many studies as possible (forest plot for all studies or harvest plot/albatross etc).

    Also, pet peeve: I wish journals would make the online supplementary material easier to find - here it apparently includes the search strategy, but I haven't yet found it. I'm not alone - I've had people emailing me asking for supplements because they can't find them on the journal website. And one journal that refused to host a supplement because it was too long (not too big data wise - well under a MB, smaller than the journal's own article PDF, but lots of pages). That was a comprehensive search strategy that would enable anyone wanting to replicate/update the review in future to do so with ease. As it is, they'll have to email me and hope I'm still available.
    (For those not in academia: journals still, even online-only ones, generally have strict word limits for articles, but will enable details on methods, sensitivity analyses, further subdivision of results etc to be provided in an online-only supplement, often as a PDF file - this is important for transparency and reproducibility.)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,348
    I'm intrigued how Bradford to Leeds in 12 minutes is achieved without NPR.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,502
    Which is needed more is debatable, but a decent trans pennine rail triangle (Leeds/Manchester/Sheffield) would likely be a hell of a lot more popular than the eastern leg of HS2.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,348

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/wearing-masks-single-most-effective-way-to-tackle-covid-study-finds

    One for the PB mask haters. As someone who attended one of my first big social functions maskless on Saturday night and now has Covid I support its message. Wear a mask.

    Wouldn't avoiding big social functions be a more effective approach?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,036
    edited November 18
    Roger said:

    The bad news for Johnson is that even a blind man on a galloping camel riding through Hartlepool now understands that for all his bonhomie he's a lying cheating crook.

    The only thing standing between the Tories and oblivion is a Labour Party and leader which looks convincing.

    But two, or maybe generously three, out of the last ten Labour leaders has been convincing as a PM, compared to perhaps six out of the last eight Conservative leaders in that time.

    Labour has a habit of choosing duds.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,476

    "This is the Great Train Robbery. Robbing the North" - Labour

    Good line

    HS2 fingers up to the North.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,579

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/wearing-masks-single-most-effective-way-to-tackle-covid-study-finds

    One for the PB mask haters. As someone who attended one of my first big social functions maskless on Saturday night and now has Covid I support its message. Wear a mask.

    I cannot see what the issue is. We are in a global pandemic. Wear a mask FFS. The sooner we are out of it you will hopefully never have to wear one again.

    One more time: Wear a mask FFS!

    PS: Sorry to hear you have it OLB. I hope you make a speedy recovery.
    The issue we won't ever be out of it. Its endemic now. Masks will help but do we want masks forever?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,452
    edited November 18
    Sean_F said:

    In the circumstances, I'd say it's a surprisingly good poll, rather than a bad poll.

    It's all relative isn't it. Compared to a few months ago not good, compared to a normal mid term very, very good and bearing mind the last few weeks absolutely excellent.

    From my perspective as a LD it is pretty good compared to the last couple of years, but utter, utter crap for a mid term. Grrrr.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,578
    Selebian said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/wearing-masks-single-most-effective-way-to-tackle-covid-study-finds

    One for the PB mask haters. As someone who attended one of my first big social functions maskless on Saturday night and now has Covid I support its message. Wear a mask.

    Quite striking how few studies were included in the meta-analyses. Not a criticism of the review, just shows the difficulty in many of the included studies being (a) crap, (b) poorly reported or (c) both. Would be nice to see a graphic on overall effect directions in as many studies as possible (forest plot for all studies or harvest plot/albatross etc).

    Also, pet peeve: I wish journals would make the online supplementary material easier to find - here it apparently includes the search strategy, but I haven't yet found it. I'm not alone - I've had people emailing me asking for supplements because they can't find them on the journal website. And one journal that refused to host a supplement because it was too long (not too big data wise - well under a MB, smaller than the journal's own article PDF, but lots of pages). That was a comprehensive search strategy that would enable anyone wanting to replicate/update the review in future to do so with ease. As it is, they'll have to email me and hope I'm still available.
    (For those not in academia: journals still, even online-only ones, generally have strict word limits for articles, but will enable details on methods, sensitivity analyses, further subdivision of results etc to be provided in an online-only supplement, often as a PDF file - this is important for transparency and reproducibility.)
    Hear hear.
  • https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/wearing-masks-single-most-effective-way-to-tackle-covid-study-finds

    One for the PB mask haters. As someone who attended one of my first big social functions maskless on Saturday night and now has Covid I support its message. Wear a mask.

    I cannot see what the issue is. We are in a global pandemic. Wear a mask FFS. The sooner we are out of it you will hopefully never have to wear one again.

    One more time: Wear a mask FFS!

    PS: Sorry to hear you have it OLB. I hope you make a speedy recovery.
    The issue we won't ever be out of it. Its endemic now. Masks will help but do we want masks forever?
    Exactly. We were in a global pandemic, but now we have an endemic disease and vaccines.

    Get your jab and live your life. Masks served a purpose when we didn't have vaccines. No need to play into antivaxxer memes and keep on with masks or distancing or anything else. Jabs and normal life is where we're upto now.

    The rest of the world that isn't vaccinated, masks may be useful for them.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,869

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/wearing-masks-single-most-effective-way-to-tackle-covid-study-finds

    One for the PB mask haters. As someone who attended one of my first big social functions maskless on Saturday night and now has Covid I support its message. Wear a mask.

    Wouldn't avoiding big social functions be a more effective approach?
    The review finds less strong evidence for distancing than for masks (but quite possibly because that's an even harder thing to measure and the definitions will be a complete nightmare). I think we can assume that distancing yourself out of the social function entirely will be protective :wink:
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,578

    Isn’t there an argument that infrastructure projects are long term not short term solution? If rail a 19th century answer, road a 20th century answer, what is 21st century smart digital answer? So what is best planning for the future?

    Less post trains and parcel rooms at stations. Wfh, less commuting. Zoom, less business travel. Work meet ups at hotel airports or countryside hotels instead.
    Amazon delivering using drones.

    Maybe doesn’t need rail or road expansion?

    We abandoned postal trains and parcel/advance luggage handling in British railways about 1979-1990 IIRC (just managed to get to uni while I could still send my trunk by BR). So we can't have fewer than zero.
  • Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Labour Party member and a doctor, Gilbert House, has been suspended from the party for saying only women experience the menopause.

    Wow, man suspended for speaking the truth.
    Utterly ridiculous. If anyone wonders why there are still folk who would like to have an alternative to Johnson, but would still be fearful of putting a cross in the red box then this is part of the answer. Oh, and Angela Rayner!
    Rayner seems to be there to enthuse the base and the membership but she is very marmite.

    Labour seem to be running a joint leadership ticket. Starmer seems unable to assert his authority and leadership. It seems a mess.

    I vote labour at GE’s with no enthusiasm, I don’t think I am going to bother with any party in 2023/4. Labour, once the party of the working class is now the party that has subcontracted out its LGBT Policy to Stonewall, its Green policies to Exctinction Rebellion and its Diversity policy to BLM. IT doesn’t seem to want to give a voice to working class communities it used to represent, indeed it seems to hold them in contempt.
    It is the fact that it does appear to be a joint ticket that would be a good reason for me not to lend them my vote. Starmer would need to demonstrate that she is well away form the levers of power. She is the Labour equivalent of Rees-Mogg in my opinion. Utterly ludicrous. Such people should be well away from any position of responsibility, let alone government.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,395
    The headline has the wrong Labour figure. It should be 37, not 36
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,494

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/wearing-masks-single-most-effective-way-to-tackle-covid-study-finds

    One for the PB mask haters. As someone who attended one of my first big social functions maskless on Saturday night and now has Covid I support its message. Wear a mask.

    Hope you kick that off soon. I've just had booster plus flu jab. Still planning mask in tight spaces.
  • Taz said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    If Boris thinks that poll looks bad - wait a few weeks as the infrastructure and Social care changes start to make headlines.

    I cannot see Johnson being given too long to turn this around. He has made too many mis steps here. IT is kust one error after another after another. All self inflicted. Labour are not having to do anything. I just get the feeling his own team are running out of patience with him.
    I do hope you are right, but fear they may allow him to bump along from one crisis to another for the simple reason that he is still popular with the Tory grassroots who are too dumb or stubborn to realise he is a calamity.
    It was the same with Thatcher. They seem to think because they like him the rest of the country does. He seems to have been caught out. His popularity is in rapid ascent. Even if the membership cannot see it his MP’s surely can.
    I think that might be the only comparison with Thatcher. Whatever she was, she was decisive and competent, and she brought in people around her that were also these things. Johnson is a joke.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,036
    edited November 18
    HYUFD said:
    That would be a "be careful what you wish for" government. Maybe others can see it working well, I can't. Labour would be in office but not in power.

    Minority governments or those with very small majorities are rarely successful in this country, and are often abject failures. Only the 1964-66 Wilson government is an exception to that rule.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,589

    Surely Shapps has just misled the House.

    Birmingham to Nottingham - 27 minutes under his plan.

    "city centre to city centre" he said.

    Is that right? The faster line will go to E Mids Parkway - miles and miles from Nottm city centre. From there it must be what 15 mins to nottm on normal lines? So Brum city to Parkway is < 15 mins??

    You are also assuming that people can change trains instantly.
  • Fishing said:

    Roger said:

    The bad news for Johnson is that even a blind man on a galloping camel riding through Hartlepool now understands that for all his bonhomie he's a lying cheating crook.

    The only thing standing between the Tories and oblivion is a Labour Party and leader which looks convincing.

    But two, or maybe generously three, out of the last ten Labour leaders has been convincing as a PM, compared to perhaps six out of the last eight Conservative leaders in that time.

    Labour has a habit of choosing duds.
    In order for us to understand your viewpoint, could you point to the two Conservative leaders that you did not find convincing?
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    If Boris thinks that poll looks bad - wait a few weeks as the infrastructure and Social care changes start to make headlines.

    I cannot see Johnson being given too long to turn this around. He has made too many mis steps here. IT is kust one error after another after another. All self inflicted. Labour are not having to do anything. I just get the feeling his own team are running out of patience with him.
    I do hope you are right, but fear they may allow him to bump along from one crisis to another for the simple reason that he is still popular with the Tory grassroots who are too dumb or stubborn to realise he is a calamity.
    It was the same with Thatcher. They seem to think because they like him the rest of the country does. He seems to have been caught out. His popularity is in rapid ascent. Even if the membership cannot see it his MP’s surely can.
    I think that might be the only comparison with Thatcher. Whatever she was, she was decisive and competent, and she brought in people around her that were also these things. Johnson is a joke.
    Absolutely. No implication otherwise was intended.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,022
    Albania's Minister of Foreign Affairs tweets:

    Same old fake news this time in the front page of a respected paper as The Times! And btw I am not a "he" but a "she" who has always admired the quality of British media. Sad.

    https://twitter.com/xhacka_olta/status/1461262182193283077?s=20
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/wearing-masks-single-most-effective-way-to-tackle-covid-study-finds

    One for the PB mask haters. As someone who attended one of my first big social functions maskless on Saturday night and now has Covid I support its message. Wear a mask.

    I cannot see what the issue is. We are in a global pandemic. Wear a mask FFS. The sooner we are out of it you will hopefully never have to wear one again.

    One more time: Wear a mask FFS!

    PS: Sorry to hear you have it OLB. I hope you make a speedy recovery.
    The issue we won't ever be out of it. Its endemic now. Masks will help but do we want masks forever?
    Trip to neighbouring town (Colchester) yesterday. On the bus; first time I've been on one since Feb 2020! Mrs C and I distinguished by both being masked on the bus going. Came back separately; few more masked, some properly! (Noses covered)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,633
    rcs1000 said:

    Surely Shapps has just misled the House.

    Birmingham to Nottingham - 27 minutes under his plan.

    "city centre to city centre" he said.

    Is that right? The faster line will go to E Mids Parkway - miles and miles from Nottm city centre. From there it must be what 15 mins to nottm on normal lines? So Brum city to Parkway is < 15 mins??

    You are also assuming that people can change trains instantly.
    He said that HS2 trains that leave Brum will switch to normal lines at some point. Presumably E Mids Parkway. So no need to change he claims.

    I just don't see what is being gained by stopping at Parkway rather than another few miles and Toton, where masses of plans have been made for major investment by local government and businesses. Saving a few million?
  • Physics is just so racist..

    Mike McCulloch
    @memcculloch
    This is the problem. I can't mention this without being fired, but here goes: I've just been sent emails re decolonising our curriculum. I object to this 100%. It's racist & sexist (anti white male) & a twisting of factual subjects for emotional reasons. It's anti science!

    https://twitter.com/memcculloch/status/1461290066760900613

    His bio -

    Mike McCulloch
    @memcculloch
    Physicist/PhD/Lecturer/author/artist/proud father. I've proposed new physics that gets rid of dark matter, allows a new engine. Based. XY. Opinions r mine alone
    Devon, UKphysicsfromtheedge.blogspot.co.uk
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236
    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:
    That would be a "be careful what you wish for" government. Maybe others can see it working well, I can't. Labour would be in office but not in power.

    Minority governments or those with very small majorities are rarely successful in this country, and are often abject failures. Only the 1964-66 Wilson government is an exception to that rule.
    Wilson Feb-Oct 74 wasn't bad, as evidenced by the fact that it picked up seats in October. At least it sorted out the miners strike.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,395

    Albania's Minister of Foreign Affairs tweets:

    Same old fake news this time in the front page of a respected paper as The Times! And btw I am not a "he" but a "she" who has always admired the quality of British media. Sad.

    https://twitter.com/xhacka_olta/status/1461262182193283077?s=20

    If she admires the quality of our media then I dread to think what the Albanian media is like.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Labour Party member and a doctor, Gilbert House, has been suspended from the party for saying only women experience the menopause.

    Wow, man suspended for speaking the truth.
    Utterly ridiculous. If anyone wonders why there are still folk who would like to have an alternative to Johnson, but would still be fearful of putting a cross in the red box then this is part of the answer. Oh, and Angela Rayner!
    Rayner seems to be there to enthuse the base and the membership but she is very marmite.

    Labour seem to be running a joint leadership ticket. Starmer seems unable to assert his authority and leadership. It seems a mess.

    I vote labour at GE’s with no enthusiasm, I don’t think I am going to bother with any party in 2023/4. Labour, once the party of the working class is now the party that has subcontracted out its LGBT Policy to Stonewall, its Green policies to Exctinction Rebellion and its Diversity policy to BLM. IT doesn’t seem to want to give a voice to working class communities it used to represent, indeed it seems to hold them in contempt.
    It is the fact that it does appear to be a joint ticket that would be a good reason for me not to lend them my vote. Starmer would need to demonstrate that she is well away form the levers of power. She is the Labour equivalent of Rees-Mogg in my opinion. Utterly ludicrous. Such people should be well away from any position of responsibility, let alone government.
    I completely agree. When @RochdalePioneers talks of labour ridding itself of the more dafter element she is one that leaps to mind. She needs to be really kept at arms length. The Labour "Rees-Mogg" is a good call.
  • Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:
    That would be a "be careful what you wish for" government. Maybe others can see it working well, I can't. Labour would be in office but not in power.

    Minority governments or those with very small majorities are rarely successful in this country, and are often abject failures. Only the 1964-66 Wilson government is an exception to that rule.
    Wilson Feb-Oct 74 wasn't bad, as evidenced by the fact that it picked up seats in October. At least it sorted out the miners strike.
    It is interesting that many people think that governments with big majorities are *good*. I prefer weak governments that can interfere in our lives a little less.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516
    edited November 18
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    If Boris thinks that poll looks bad - wait a few weeks as the infrastructure and Social care changes start to make headlines.

    The lifetime social care care costs cap of £86,000 though will be a net positive in most parts of the country and especially those with higher house prices
    But disproportionality impacts the poor because for them the only bit that counts is the percentage they pay not the full cost.

    So a rich person starts getting 100% free care after 5 years while a poor person starts getting it after 15 years.

    Nice to know you wish to screw the inheritance of people with little while allowing your rich mates to receive a large inheritance.
    If you are genuinely poor you will not own a property but be in social housing or renting with housing benefit with few savings if any and the Local Authority will already pay your costs in full and this proposal will not affect that.

    Plus of course Labour won those in social housing and renting even in 2019, so they are hardly the Tory core vote or even voters who voted Tory in 2019 when Boris won a majority of 80.

    However given the average house price is now well over £200k the social care reforms ensure that most of their estate is kept exempt from the costs of care for the average person and up. For those with fewer assets there will still be means tested support
  • Fishing said:

    Roger said:

    The bad news for Johnson is that even a blind man on a galloping camel riding through Hartlepool now understands that for all his bonhomie he's a lying cheating crook.

    The only thing standing between the Tories and oblivion is a Labour Party and leader which looks convincing.

    But two, or maybe generously three, out of the last ten Labour leaders has been convincing as a PM, compared to perhaps six out of the last eight Conservative leaders in that time.

    Labour has a habit of choosing duds.
    In order for us to understand your viewpoint, could you point to the two Conservative leaders that you did not find convincing?
    Even as someone who's supported the Conservatives almost all my life, even if I've twice quit the party I still feel a Conservative, I'd have to acknowledge that half of the Tory leaders in my lifetime were not convincing.

    Thatcher, Major, Cameron and Boris were convincing - and all won a majority at an election too.

    Hague, IDS, Howard and May were not - and none of them won a majority either.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:
    That would be a "be careful what you wish for" government. Maybe others can see it working well, I can't. Labour would be in office but not in power.

    Minority governments or those with very small majorities are rarely successful in this country, and are often abject failures. Only the 1964-66 Wilson government is an exception to that rule.
    Wilson Feb-Oct 74 wasn't bad, as evidenced by the fact that it picked up seats in October. At least it sorted out the miners strike.
    It is interesting that many people think that governments with big majorities are *good*. I prefer weak governments that can interfere in our lives a little less.
    Or have to make a good case, rather than arrogantly rely on their parliamentary majority.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,589
    The NYTimes is reporting that the Iraqi and Syrian migrants that Belorussia invited in are beginning to give up on getting to Poland and are now starting to claim asylum there instead.

    The Minsk government has banned all flights from the Middle East in response.
  • Fishing said:

    Roger said:

    The bad news for Johnson is that even a blind man on a galloping camel riding through Hartlepool now understands that for all his bonhomie he's a lying cheating crook.

    The only thing standing between the Tories and oblivion is a Labour Party and leader which looks convincing.

    But two, or maybe generously three, out of the last ten Labour leaders has been convincing as a PM, compared to perhaps six out of the last eight Conservative leaders in that time.

    Labour has a habit of choosing duds.
    In order for us to understand your viewpoint, could you point to the two Conservative leaders that you did not find convincing?
    Even as someone who's supported the Conservatives almost all my life, even if I've twice quit the party I still feel a Conservative, I'd have to acknowledge that half of the Tory leaders in my lifetime were not convincing.

    Thatcher, Major, Cameron and Boris were convincing - and all won a majority at an election too.

    Hague, IDS, Howard and May were not - and none of them won a majority either.
    OK Phil, so you still think Boris Johnson is "convincing" as a PM? OK! i guess you are entitled to an opinion! *More* convincing than Corbyn perhaps, but that was a low bar. Convincing as PM generally? Wow!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,869

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/wearing-masks-single-most-effective-way-to-tackle-covid-study-finds

    One for the PB mask haters. As someone who attended one of my first big social functions maskless on Saturday night and now has Covid I support its message. Wear a mask.

    I cannot see what the issue is. We are in a global pandemic. Wear a mask FFS. The sooner we are out of it you will hopefully never have to wear one again.

    One more time: Wear a mask FFS!

    PS: Sorry to hear you have it OLB. I hope you make a speedy recovery.
    The issue we won't ever be out of it. Its endemic now. Masks will help but do we want masks forever?
    Exactly. We were in a global pandemic, but now we have an endemic disease and vaccines.

    Get your jab and live your life. Masks served a purpose when we didn't have vaccines. No need to play into antivaxxer memes and keep on with masks or distancing or anything else. Jabs and normal life is where we're upto now.

    The rest of the world that isn't vaccinated, masks may be useful for them.
    There are two different questions:
    1. Are masks effective?
    2. Should people be forced to wear masks?

    The best evidence (this review) on 1 is yes. The evidence should get better as more (and, hopefully, better) studies are published.
    There is no definitive answer to 2. It depends on viewpoints on the relative costs of masks versus the apparent benefits (there are public health benefits in requiring everyone to wear a mask everywhere for ever more, but also costs to society in changed interactions, the economy in changes in behaviour, to the hard of hearing, to children learning language etc etc...)

    There is, presumably a point on 2 for almost everyone where they would say that mask wearing should stop under certain conditions. For some that was comprehensive vaccination. For others linked to case numbers perhaps?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724
    edited November 18

    rcs1000 said:

    Surely Shapps has just misled the House.

    Birmingham to Nottingham - 27 minutes under his plan.

    "city centre to city centre" he said.

    Is that right? The faster line will go to E Mids Parkway - miles and miles from Nottm city centre. From there it must be what 15 mins to nottm on normal lines? So Brum city to Parkway is < 15 mins??

    You are also assuming that people can change trains instantly.
    He said that HS2 trains that leave Brum will switch to normal lines at some point. Presumably E Mids Parkway. So no need to change he claims.

    I just don't see what is being gained by stopping at Parkway rather than another few miles and Toton, where masses of plans have been made for major investment by local government and businesses. Saving a few million?
    Surely if they're switching to existing lines (and continuing to the city centre), there isn't much to be gained by building a line to Toton. Sure, there may be plans to develop there, but I don't think that's a good enough reason for building a station there.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 358
    eek said:

    Isn’t there an argument that infrastructure projects are long term not short term solution? If rail a 19th century answer, road a 20th century answer, what is 21st century smart digital answer? So what is best planning for the future?

    Less post trains and parcel rooms at stations. Wfh, less commuting. Zoom, less business travel. Work meet ups at hotel airports or countryside hotels instead.
    Amazon delivering using drones.

    Maybe doesn’t need rail or road expansion?

    Nope I spent 5 years prior to Covid flying across Europe because you can't deliver projects remotely (tech wise you can, but the change management side falls apart unless people think they have had a say in the changes and that really can only be done in person),

    Demand for long distance travel will increase in the future not decrease (it's already close to pre covid levels).
    Thank you Eek. Looking natty in your avatar

    I hope I am paraphrasing you fairly

    Demand for long distance travel will increase in the future not decrease…you can't deliver projects remotely…the change management side falls apart unless people think they have had a say in the changes and that really can only be done in person.

    And having to do that travel whilst meeting ‘green’ commitments at same time?

    And honestly truthfully can’t be done by embracing digital and reforming current culture?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,022
    The new map of the #HS2 eastern leg, illustrating very clearly how Yorkshire and the North East are excluded. Only the unbroken light blue and dark blue lines are HS2


    https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461299146829312004?s=20
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484

    Gary Neville
    @GNev2
    ·
    1h
    The scrapping of a major Northern Rail Route should be the final straw for this government with their “ Levelling Up “ pledge . This along with monumental corruption , the lack of planning for a post Brexit economy and their COVID ineptness should be enough to bring them down!

    Apart from the totally corrupt core still supporting , how can any person with a shred of morals support this lot. I expect to see lots of support on here mind you.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219
    rcs1000 said:

    The NYTimes is reporting that the Iraqi and Syrian migrants that Belorussia invited in are beginning to give up on getting to Poland and are now starting to claim asylum there instead.

    The Minsk government has banned all flights from the Middle East in response.

    Lukashenko will no doubt eliminate them.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236

    Fishing said:

    Roger said:

    The bad news for Johnson is that even a blind man on a galloping camel riding through Hartlepool now understands that for all his bonhomie he's a lying cheating crook.

    The only thing standing between the Tories and oblivion is a Labour Party and leader which looks convincing.

    But two, or maybe generously three, out of the last ten Labour leaders has been convincing as a PM, compared to perhaps six out of the last eight Conservative leaders in that time.

    Labour has a habit of choosing duds.
    In order for us to understand your viewpoint, could you point to the two Conservative leaders that you did not find convincing?
    Even as someone who's supported the Conservatives almost all my life, even if I've twice quit the party I still feel a Conservative, I'd have to acknowledge that half of the Tory leaders in my lifetime were not convincing.

    Thatcher, Major, Cameron and Boris were convincing - and all won a majority at an election too.

    Hague, IDS, Howard and May were not - and none of them won a majority either.
    OK Phil, so you still think Boris Johnson is "convincing" as a PM? OK! i guess you are entitled to an opinion! *More* convincing than Corbyn perhaps, but that was a low bar. Convincing as PM generally? Wow!
    I always thought Hague was somewhat unlucky to get the Tory leadership gig when he did.
    Although I think over he's done quite well out of never being PM.
  • Fishing said:

    Roger said:

    The bad news for Johnson is that even a blind man on a galloping camel riding through Hartlepool now understands that for all his bonhomie he's a lying cheating crook.

    The only thing standing between the Tories and oblivion is a Labour Party and leader which looks convincing.

    But two, or maybe generously three, out of the last ten Labour leaders has been convincing as a PM, compared to perhaps six out of the last eight Conservative leaders in that time.

    Labour has a habit of choosing duds.
    In order for us to understand your viewpoint, could you point to the two Conservative leaders that you did not find convincing?
    Even as someone who's supported the Conservatives almost all my life, even if I've twice quit the party I still feel a Conservative, I'd have to acknowledge that half of the Tory leaders in my lifetime were not convincing.

    Thatcher, Major, Cameron and Boris were convincing - and all won a majority at an election too.

    Hague, IDS, Howard and May were not - and none of them won a majority either.
    OK Phil, so you still think Boris Johnson is "convincing" as a PM? OK! i guess you are entitled to an opinion! *More* convincing than Corbyn perhaps, but that was a low bar. Convincing as PM generally? Wow!
    On balance. He has a lot of flaws, but on balance he's handled Europe and the pandemic well - he's handling the economy, taxation and investment badly.

    The problem with Boris is the things he's handled well are mostly in the past. The things he's handling badly are in the future. That's a big concern! It suggests to me his Premiership is likely to get worse not better!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,589
    Fishing said:

    Roger said:

    The bad news for Johnson is that even a blind man on a galloping camel riding through Hartlepool now understands that for all his bonhomie he's a lying cheating crook.

    The only thing standing between the Tories and oblivion is a Labour Party and leader which looks convincing.

    But two, or maybe generously three, out of the last ten Labour leaders has been convincing as a PM, compared to perhaps six out of the last eight Conservative leaders in that time.

    Labour has a habit of choosing duds.
    I'd say Wilson, Callaghan, Smith and Blair, which makes four.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,589
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The NYTimes is reporting that the Iraqi and Syrian migrants that Belorussia invited in are beginning to give up on getting to Poland and are now starting to claim asylum there instead.

    The Minsk government has banned all flights from the Middle East in response.

    Lukashenko will no doubt eliminate them.
    There are quite a few there now - probably 10-15,000.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,585
    edited November 18
    RIP The Tory “Red Wall” 2019-2021. Funeral to be held at the next general election. No flowers: donations in lieu to the Boris Johnson “Crikey, I’m going to need a new job” Slush Fund.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,266

    Physics is just so racist..

    Mike McCulloch
    @memcculloch
    This is the problem. I can't mention this without being fired, but here goes: I've just been sent emails re decolonising our curriculum. I object to this 100%. It's racist & sexist (anti white male) & a twisting of factual subjects for emotional reasons. It's anti science!

    https://twitter.com/memcculloch/status/1461290066760900613

    His bio -

    Mike McCulloch
    @memcculloch
    Physicist/PhD/Lecturer/author/artist/proud father. I've proposed new physics that gets rid of dark matter, allows a new engine. Based. XY. Opinions r mine alone
    Devon, UKphysicsfromtheedge.blogspot.co.uk

    Physics might not be racist, but it would be a surprise if no physicists were, and that might affect their work.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724

    The new map of the #HS2 eastern leg, illustrating very clearly how Yorkshire and the North East are excluded. Only the unbroken light blue and dark blue lines are HS2


    https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461299146829312004?s=20

    I think that makes much more sense for the East Midlands than Toton did. Presumably running Derby-London and Nottingham-London trains via HS2 should free up some space at the bottom of the MML, which would be very useful.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,633

    The new map of the #HS2 eastern leg, illustrating very clearly how Yorkshire and the North East are excluded. Only the unbroken light blue and dark blue lines are HS2


    https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1461299146829312004?s=20

    I predict the upgrades will never happen.

    They'll be salami sliced in the coming years, bit by bit, so that most people don't notice.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516
    edited November 18
    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:
    That would be a "be careful what you wish for" government. Maybe others can see it working well, I can't. Labour would be in office but not in power.

    Minority governments or those with very small majorities are rarely successful in this country, and are often abject failures. Only the 1964-66 Wilson government is an exception to that rule.
    Plus the Tory-LD coalition from 2010-2015 but then while the Tories were short of a majority, the Tories and LDs combined had a comfortable majority of 74.

    On the Survation numbers though Labour + SNP or Labour + LD would still be well short of a majority even if Labour + SNP + LD would be enough to make Starmer PM
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,866
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The NYTimes is reporting that the Iraqi and Syrian migrants that Belorussia invited in are beginning to give up on getting to Poland and are now starting to claim asylum there instead.

    The Minsk government has banned all flights from the Middle East in response.

    Lukashenko will no doubt eliminate them.
    There are quite a few there now - probably 10-15,000.
    Apparently they are laying on flights to Baghdad.
  • Grrr FPP

    Reading through the document now. Some absolutely ludicrous claims being made. London to Leeds now via the ECML will be 20 minutes faster. 20 minutes! If they made the entire route 140mph top speed it would save 6 minutes - and that isn't the plan. So what is the plan? Closing level crossings doesn't save 14 further minutes.

    And again - making trains fun raster on existing lines reduces capacity. 140mph running means longer headways which means fewer trains.
  • FPP Reading more through the document. I know that @Philip_Thompson enjoyed the idea of a new high speed line to Warrington and I said "its the original part of HS2"

    I was wrong. The new plan is to "upgrade and electrify" the freight line that winds its way through Widnes to a reinstated Warrington Bank Quay Low Level station, over the knackered viaduct over the ship canal and then a new line to connect to the HS2 Manchester Airport spur.

    So no connection to HS2 for Liverpool other than the existing route to Crewe. And how can I put this - there are NOT creating a fast route between Liverpool and Warrington as that alignment is not remotely straight and fixing that would be mega expensive and disruptive - hence the proposed new line now scrapped.
  • From the document there is Good News for @TSE. The Northern Powerhouse Rail solution for you is running high speed services along the Hope Valley. He knows that the line itself is slow and the approaches to both Manchester and Sheffield are slow, and the Good News is that aside from dualling the chords at Dore and Hazel Grove you're getting nothing new.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,080

    I'm intrigued how Bradford to Leeds in 12 minutes is achieved without NPR.

    I think they're assuming flying taxis.
  • https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/wearing-masks-single-most-effective-way-to-tackle-covid-study-finds

    One for the PB mask haters. As someone who attended one of my first big social functions maskless on Saturday night and now has Covid I support its message. Wear a mask.

    I cannot see what the issue is. We are in a global pandemic. Wear a mask FFS. The sooner we are out of it you will hopefully never have to wear one again.

    One more time: Wear a mask FFS!

    PS: Sorry to hear you have it OLB. I hope you make a speedy recovery.
    The issue we won't ever be out of it. Its endemic now. Masks will help but do we want masks forever?
    Answer to your question is no. Not sure we are at endemic status yet are we? Arguable perhaps? the government says it hopes to be the first country to achieve such status though it hasn't made that claim yet has it?

    My view is that if you are in a place where there are a lot of people you should use discretion, but normally wear one. Alternatively you can consider wearing a hat with SELFISH TWAT on it, though that is not entirely necessary.

    Either is the person's free choice

    Either way, I would say that as it isn't exactly inconvenient, wear one until we are clearly in the endemic phase. Not wearing one is like wearing a top hat in a cinema with slightly more serious consequences.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,742
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The NYTimes is reporting that the Iraqi and Syrian migrants that Belorussia invited in are beginning to give up on getting to Poland and are now starting to claim asylum there instead.

    The Minsk government has banned all flights from the Middle East in response.

    Lukashenko will no doubt eliminate them.
    There are quite a few there now - probably 10-15,000.
    Apparently they are laying on flights to Baghdad.
    I can't see them getting on willingly
  • Surely Shapps has just misled the House.

    Birmingham to Nottingham - 27 minutes under his plan.

    "city centre to city centre" he said.

    Is that right? The faster line will go to E Mids Parkway - miles and miles from Nottm city centre. From there it must be what 15 mins to nottm on normal lines? So Brum city to Parkway is < 15 mins??

    He hasn't a clue. Though there are some frankly absurd claims elsewhere which I have noted above.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,452
    Just heard Heidi Allen on R4. Apparently at one election a ballot paper had an erect penis against her name and a flaccid penis against her LD opponents name. It was counted as a vote for her.

    Now I have been at quite a few counts, sometimes as an agent, and there is no way a returning officer would do that. I am guessing the 3 of them were having a bit of fun considering the 1 vote didn't change anything.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,866

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The NYTimes is reporting that the Iraqi and Syrian migrants that Belorussia invited in are beginning to give up on getting to Poland and are now starting to claim asylum there instead.

    The Minsk government has banned all flights from the Middle East in response.

    Lukashenko will no doubt eliminate them.
    There are quite a few there now - probably 10-15,000.
    Apparently they are laying on flights to Baghdad.
    I can't see them getting on willingly
    Maybe, but they're still going to be on the flight. It's that or a bullet to the head.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236
    rcs1000 said:

    Fishing said:

    Roger said:

    The bad news for Johnson is that even a blind man on a galloping camel riding through Hartlepool now understands that for all his bonhomie he's a lying cheating crook.

    The only thing standing between the Tories and oblivion is a Labour Party and leader which looks convincing.

    But two, or maybe generously three, out of the last ten Labour leaders has been convincing as a PM, compared to perhaps six out of the last eight Conservative leaders in that time.

    Labour has a habit of choosing duds.
    I'd say Wilson, Callaghan, Smith and Blair, which makes four.
    Smith was, sadly, never PM. And I don't think any of the Tory leaders since Thatcher have been up to much. Major is one of those people who matured into dignified, and respected, retirement. Nothing became him so much as the manner of his leaving. Or something like that!
  • MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The NYTimes is reporting that the Iraqi and Syrian migrants that Belorussia invited in are beginning to give up on getting to Poland and are now starting to claim asylum there instead.

    The Minsk government has banned all flights from the Middle East in response.

    Lukashenko will no doubt eliminate them.
    There are quite a few there now - probably 10-15,000.
    Apparently they are laying on flights to Baghdad.
    I can't see them getting on willingly
    Cute that you think they'll have a choice.
  • HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:
    That would be a "be careful what you wish for" government. Maybe others can see it working well, I can't. Labour would be in office but not in power.

    Minority governments or those with very small majorities are rarely successful in this country, and are often abject failures. Only the 1964-66 Wilson government is an exception to that rule.
    Plus the Tory-LD coalition from 2010-2015 but then while the Tories were short of a majority, the Tories and LDs combined had a comfortable majority of 74.

    On the Survation numbers though Labour + SNP or Labour + LD would still be well short of a majority even if Labour + SNP + LD would be enough to make Starmer PM
    I think that might be a good outcome for the Conservatives. It would be a weak government that would collapse in perhaps 18 months and that would be enough time for the Conservatives get rid of Johnson and put the grown-ups back in charge
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