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In terms of dates the ComRes LAB 6% lead poll is still the latest – politicalbetting.com
In terms of dates the ComRes LAB 6% lead poll is still the latest – politicalbetting.com
I was a bit disappointed at the weekend that the only new poll was Opinium for the Observer and that had fieldwork dates of November 10-12 compared with the ComRes November 11-12. Generally, with internet polls the bulk of the sample responds on the first day of fieldwork so it is hard to compare Opinium with ComRes.
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We can also compare how Johnson is viewed now with how May was viewed in March 2019 (4 months before she was booted out).
Johnson beats her on just one metric "Is able to get things done".
When it comes to sticking to principles, 2019 May is 24 points ahead.
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1460275673344487425
Decisive
In touch with ordinary peopleRepresents what most people think
Has similar views to my own
Has the nation's best interests at heart
Sticks to principles
Trustworthy
Trusted to make big decisions
Competent
But Starmer lags behind the PM on:
Strong leader
Is able to get things done
Stand up for Britain abroad
Brave
Likeable
"A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.
The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.
The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."
In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
A No
Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."
https://twitter.com/ChairmanMoet/status/1460287279340130305
Do 24% of poll responders ignore all news?
Where's that fridge?
It’s capital investment, so unlikely to be about the money.
Most of the Tory opposition is motivated by the concerns of Tories in the Home Counties - yet that part is going ahead.
Where’s the upside of dropping the bit near Nottingham?
Edit no it’s not. My mistake
The Brexit dividend of higher pay will be long forgotten by 2023 but most Red Wall MPs will be hard pushed to answer what have you given this constituency...
Case rise seems to have levelled off entirely, most ages and the total pointing slightly down now, so the increases still coming through the daily totals are just as we're comparing to a lower level last week rather than still in the process of rising.
My guess is that it will be battery packs on trains, with charging from overhead in various areas.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/11/can-we-run-our-trains-using-big-batteries/ - that is for the US, where the train usage is much less favourable for electrification.
The absolute killer though is "Northern Powerhouse Rail". That would have transformed connectivity across the Pennines. Instead they will likely keep the name but it will now be Hitachi units coasting through Standege tunnel on batteries before the congested twisty bits on either side because there's not even enough cash to put up electric wires. Including this bit https://www.flickr.com/photos/loose_grip_99/6046073242/
(Although a little research does show she attended Hull uni - maybe a bit of more local anti-West Yorkshire sentiment?)
Edit: as RP points out: a few pretty drawings of trams won't cut it.
As home secretary she talked tough on immigration and delivered record numbers.
As PM she talked tough on Brexit whilst trying to deliver a sell out.
Hard to know whether her principles include lying or incompetance, but it must be one or the other.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Labour Lead in our GB Voting Intention for the Second Time This Year.
Full results (15 Nov):
Labour 37% (-1)
Conservative 36% (-)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 4% (-)
Reform UK 4% (+1)
Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 10 Nov
Connectivity across the Pennines is woeful - dense urban areas, large town and cities where they are close by but take an eternity to get to. Tories have promised big, will deliver small and make the truly stupid mistake of claiming to have delivered huuuuge. Hence "three new high speed lines" when in practice its half of one.
Hmm. If it is Brexit then that is ridiculous, and HMG needs to sort it at once. They are our rules and we can change them
Anyway the new one SavantaComRes is proving an excellent replacement
Which as we all know means they are utterly shit and embarrassingly woeful.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/tory-jacob-rees-mogg-faces-calls-for-standards-probe-over-6m-in-cheap-loans/ar-AAQJpGw?ocid=entnewsntp
1) A few of their top bods left and formed DeltaPoll
and
2) The Guardian dropped their monthly ICM poll
So we don't see much of them these days.
No Northern Powerhouse route is utterly stupid
Sir Keir ahead on net satisfaction now, -9 playing Boris’s -10, though Boris still leads on Gross Positives, 35 to 26, which I think is the more important metric
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -10%, a four-point decrease since last week. This week’s poll finds 45% disapproving (up 3%) of his overall job performance, against 35% approving (down 1%).
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has not changed in the past week, still standing at -9%. 35% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 1%), while 26% approve (up 1%). Meanwhile, 33% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (up 2%).
Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 40% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a result which has decreased slightly from 42% in last week’s poll. Conversely, 31% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (down 1%).
More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (43% to 29%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (42% to 32%), ‘can work with foreign leaders’ (40% to 34%), ‘can bring British people together’ (38% to 33%).
Keir Starmer continues to lead over Boris Johnson when it comes to best embodying the descriptions of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (40% to 28%) and ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (35% to 33%).
Meanwhile, pluralities of respondents say they do not know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (46%), ‘is creative’ (43%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (40%), or ‘has the better foreign policy strategy’ (40%).
In the ski tourism industry it is career-ending for ski instructors. I know one who worked in Verbier every winter but now cannot due to Brexit.
It is a little more encouraging for chalet-staff. The chalet companies, who usually employ young Brits doing a gap year, are having to advertise positions locally (i.e. in France) for EU staff first before offering jobs to the British. Then they apply for a work permit for them, which enables them to get a visa from the French Embassy.
The end result is usually OK because French locals whilst happy to be a chalet cook do not want to do the other work particular to chalet girls/boys (e.g. sorting out punters' problems and cleaning the loos).
Heck the HCPT Easter Lourdes trip (which the Northern Catholic Secondary schools organise their timetable round) is about to be cancelled for a 3rd year in a row.
@EricTopol
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1h
Countering waning immunity
The new data from England today shows a booster (3rd) shot increased vaccine effectiveness from 44% to 93% for Astra Zeneca and from 62.5 to 94% for Pfizer, vs symptomatic infection, age 50+
The 67-year-old was taken into custody, expected to appear in district court in the afternoon.
The Labour lead was 2% with the last R&W.
The exact layout of the overheads will be interesting. One suggestion is that in the longer term, the falling cost of batteries would mean that overheads might actually be reduced - they are expensive to put up and expensive to maintain.
Overheads departing from a station for a certain distance would be one scheme - the approach would use regenerative braking to store energy in the batteries.
However this part really stands out
Pluralities of respondents say they do not know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (46%), ‘is creative’ (43%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (40%), or ‘has the better foreign policy strategy’ (40%).
46% do not know which of the two tells the truth !!!!!!!
The first issue is the one I posted about this morning - that children who have had one jab (the UK recommendation) are classed as unvaccinated everywhere other than the UK. This has partly been sorted today with the announcement of the second jab for 16 - 17 year olds. Our friends daughter, age 15, has just had her school trip cancelled and she is very upset about it. Her cancellation is partly due to the one-jab limitation but is also due to the problem that I describe in my last post below.
It is a real shame.
Post-Brexit changes to UK immigration rules mean EU schoolchildren can no longer travel on group passports and non-EU students require expensive individual visas, putting a trip to England financially out of reach for some of Regiani’s pupils and thousands of others in mainland Europe.
Regiani’s students at Jean Jaurès middle school in Sarreguemines will instead have to settle for Calais. “It’s disappointing,” she said. “We’ll visit places in touch with English culture and we’ll have a walk on the beach in Calais and we’ll see the cliffs, and I’ll say ‘see there’s the white cliffs of Dover’.”
Large tour companies across the continent have reported a collapse in school bookings to Britain in 2022. Despite the pandemic, relative to the UK inquiries are increasing for other destinations where English is widely spoken in the EU, such as Ireland, Nordic countries and the Netherlands.
The trends bear out warnings to Boris Johnson by French and German school exchange companies last spring that the new immigration rules would erode school cultural exchanges between the EU and UK, with negative consequences for cultural exchanges that were “crucial for the future of our societies”.
Travel industry estimates suggest French and German schools alone send at least 17,000 trips to the UK each year, with French school groups’ direct input into the UK valued at £100m. The British Educational Travel Association, BETA, estimates the total value of the industry, including language schools, at £1.5bn a year.
A survey last month of French schools by Unosel, the international association for language and homestays, suggested the number of planned trips to the UK had fallen by almost two-thirds. Eurovoyages, a French company that sent 11,000 students to the UK in 2019, said less than 100 students would travel to Britain this year, with clients instead switching to Ireland, Spain and the Netherlands.
Marie Bayol from Verdie Open Class, another French operator, said it had organised more than 800 school groups in 2019 for 36,000 students, but had just 34 groups scheduled for 2022, none of which had confirmed.
I loved my school trips.
1. Monday: 32,081
2. Tuesday: 28,531
3. Wednesday: 31,317
4. Thursday: 30,166
5. Friday: 28,490
6. Saturday: 26,250
7. Sunday: 23,779 -20%
8. Monday: 24,979 -28%
9. Tuesday: 27,872 -2%
10. Wednesday: 35,541 +12%
11. Thursday: 35,472 +15%
12. Friday: 33,155 +15%
13. Saturday: 33,493 +12%
14. Sunday: 29,404 +19%
15. Monday: 31,440 +22%
I don't think this shows much, but as I have typed it out I thought I would share.
I'm such a fucking child at times.
Good news they are going to be starting on the 40+ cohort for boosters but they should have done that a couple of weeks ago to get the pace of boosters moving.
Suggest that cases are going up among the children.
FFS they need to sort this out. Where is the common sense?
If we are to pay attention to cases, the red line on that chart is the only one of importance.
"Tory MP faces bankruptcy over unpaid taxes
Exclusive: court records show petition filed by HMRC against Adam Afriyie, MP for Windsor"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/08/tory-mp-faces-bankruptcy-over-unpaid-taxes-and-may-have-to-step-down-adam-afriyie
Events dear boy.
It's not the tourists it's the employees of the tour companies.
I've done some quick maths on it and I think without boosters we're currently sitting at population immunity of about 82%. With boosters we could be getting to about 87%, with Delta it's thought that we need to hit population immunity of about 90-93% to get to herd immunity. The government decision to open up over 40s boosters and the likely opening of over 18s boosters is to make that happen. We would still need another 9m infections to reach that with natural immunity alone, even with VE against death still looking pretty good that still adds up to a lot of deaths and a lot of people using the NHS that could be very easily prevented. 9m infections at the current rates would take about 4 months.
And the trains? Its awfully slow between Manc and Leeds / Sheffield with "expresses" having to share the same tracks as slow trains that stop at lots of stations on twisty and hilly routes.
Having finally been promised the transformative "built it and they will come" approach, to pull out now will not be good for the Tories. Especially as - and its absurd to have to post this - they will try and claim they never offered "it" and are building "it" simultaneously.
So far this term 5 of my nephews and nieces have caught Covid and had to have some time off.