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In terms of dates the ComRes LAB 6% lead poll is still the latest – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 15 in General
imageIn terms of dates the ComRes LAB 6% lead poll is still the latest – politicalbetting.com

I was a bit disappointed at the weekend that the only new poll was Opinium for the Observer and that had fieldwork dates of November 10-12 compared with the ComRes November 11-12. Generally, with internet polls the bulk of the sample responds on the first day of fieldwork so it is hard to compare Opinium with ComRes.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 15,853
    First as Labour will be all week
  • Quite the thread from Chris Curtis of Opinium, this bit stuck out.

    We can also compare how Johnson is viewed now with how May was viewed in March 2019 (4 months before she was booted out).

    Johnson beats her on just one metric "Is able to get things done".

    When it comes to sticking to principles, 2019 May is 24 points ahead.


    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1460275673344487425
  • In terms of % agree, Starmer beats Johnson on:
    Decisive
    In touch with ordinary peopleRepresents what most people think
    Has similar views to my own
    Has the nation's best interests at heart
    Sticks to principles
    Trustworthy
    Trusted to make big decisions
    Competent

    But Starmer lags behind the PM on:
    Strong leader
    Is able to get things done
    Stand up for Britain abroad
    Brave
    Likeable
  • BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,888
    Afternoon everyone. Is the queen still alive?
  • being judged less decisive than Theresa May, a politician who was almost genetically unable to make decisions, is fairly damning

    https://twitter.com/ChairmanMoet/status/1460287279340130305
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853

    Quite the thread from Chris Curtis of Opinium, this bit stuck out.

    We can also compare how Johnson is viewed now with how May was viewed in March 2019 (4 months before she was booted out).

    Johnson beats her on just one metric "Is able to get things done".

    When it comes to sticking to principles, 2019 May is 24 points ahead.


    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1460275673344487425

    Sticks to principles Boris scores 24% compared to May's 50%

    Do 24% of poll responders ignore all news?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,573

    Afternoon everyone. Is the queen still alive?

    I think she'll end up as Schroedinger's Queen at this rate - the number of observers assuming she is, erm, not alive.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,001

    In terms of % agree, Starmer beats Johnson on:
    Decisive
    In touch with ordinary peopleRepresents what most people think
    Has similar views to my own
    Has the nation's best interests at heart
    Sticks to principles
    Trustworthy
    Trusted to make big decisions
    Competent

    But Starmer lags behind the PM on:
    Strong leader
    Is able to get things done
    Stand up for Britain abroad
    Brave
    Likeable

    It takes a brave person to say that Johnson is more brave than Starmer.
    Where's that fridge?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • Afternoon everyone. Is the queen still alive?

    Freddie Mercury died almost 30 years ago to the day.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

    image
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,573

    BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."

    Lots more diesels. At least the Sprinters have gone.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240
    UK local R

    image
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,562

    BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."

    So what are they playing at?

    It’s capital investment, so unlikely to be about the money.

    Most of the Tory opposition is motivated by the concerns of Tories in the Home Counties - yet that part is going ahead.

    Where’s the upside of dropping the bit near Nottingham?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,017
    eek said:

    Quite the thread from Chris Curtis of Opinium, this bit stuck out.

    We can also compare how Johnson is viewed now with how May was viewed in March 2019 (4 months before she was booted out).

    Johnson beats her on just one metric "Is able to get things done".

    When it comes to sticking to principles, 2019 May is 24 points ahead.


    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1460275673344487425

    Sticks to principles Boris scores 24% compared to May's 50%

    Do 24% of poll responders ignore all news?
    As we know there is one principle that Boris has stuck to his entire adult life.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240
    Cases summary

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853
    Carnyx said:

    BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."

    Lots more diesels. At least the Sprinters have gone.
    Only because they were completely time served - I suspect something similar will reappear as money gets tight.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,573
    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."

    So what are they playing at?

    It’s capital investment, so unlikely to be about the money.

    Most of the Tory opposition is motivated by the concerns of Tories in the Home Counties - yet that part is going ahead.

    Where’s the upside of dropping the bit near Nottingham?
    I think it is indeed the HC Tories - being appeased about money not being spent on northern proles (their views/language, not mine).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240
    Hospitals

    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240
    Deaths

    image
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,562

    being judged less decisive than Theresa May, a politician who was almost genetically unable to make decisions, is fairly damning

    https://twitter.com/ChairmanMoet/status/1460287279340130305

    They both take an age to make their mind up (one for always wanting more evidence, the other for responding to whoever sat on him last); the difference is that once May’s mind was made up there was no shifting her, whereas the clown will change his mind again once his first decision turns out pants.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,573
    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."

    Lots more diesels. At least the Sprinters have gone.
    Only because they were completely time served - I suspect something similar will reappear as money gets tight.
    Urgh. They'd still be serving when Barmouth viaduct is permanently underwater.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240
    Age related data

    image
    image
    image

    image
    image
    image
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,265
    I can't see the sense in banning the sale of internal combustion engines from 2030, and not having a comprehensive plan to electrify every railway line.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,544
    edited November 15
    eek said:

    Quite the thread from Chris Curtis of Opinium, this bit stuck out.

    We can also compare how Johnson is viewed now with how May was viewed in March 2019 (4 months before she was booted out).

    Johnson beats her on just one metric "Is able to get things done".

    When it comes to sticking to principles, 2019 May is 24 points ahead.


    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1460275673344487425

    Sticks to principles Boris scores 24% compared to May's 50%

    Do 24% of poll responders ignore all news?
    Isn’t it comparing Boris now with May when her party were about 25 points clear in the polls?

    Edit no it’s not. My mistake
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853
    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."

    So what are they playing at?

    It’s capital investment, so unlikely to be about the money.

    Most of the Tory opposition is motivated by the concerns of Tories in the Home Counties - yet that part is going ahead.

    Where’s the upside of dropping the bit near Nottingham?
    I think it is indeed the HC Tories - being appeased about money not being spent on northern proles (their views/language, not mine).
    Apart from within Leeds (who seemingly get the tram network they've always / never wanted) I can see this costing a whole lot of Tory seats.

    The Brexit dividend of higher pay will be long forgotten by 2023 but most Red Wall MPs will be hard pushed to answer what have you given this constituency...
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,659
    http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/logcasesbyage.png

    Case rise seems to have levelled off entirely, most ages and the total pointing slightly down now, so the increases still coming through the daily totals are just as we're comparing to a lower level last week rather than still in the process of rising.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240

    I can't see the sense in banning the sale of internal combustion engines from 2030, and not having a comprehensive plan to electrify every railway line.

    The question of which technology is going to be used is still up in the air.

    My guess is that it will be battery packs on trains, with charging from overhead in various areas.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/11/can-we-run-our-trains-using-big-batteries/ - that is for the US, where the train usage is much less favourable for electrification.
  • IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."

    So what are they playing at?

    It’s capital investment, so unlikely to be about the money.

    Most of the Tory opposition is motivated by the concerns of Tories in the Home Counties - yet that part is going ahead.

    Where’s the upside of dropping the bit near Nottingham?
    The party objects to monies being spent on the peons that could be trousered? Building northwards to truncate at EM Parkway is daft (though not as daft as claiming the journey time to there is "to Nottingham". The northern bit from north of Rotherham into Leeds is truly bonkers. You don't bulldose a path through the city centre to build a new station for high speed trains that will never arrive.

    The absolute killer though is "Northern Powerhouse Rail". That would have transformed connectivity across the Pennines. Instead they will likely keep the name but it will now be Hitachi units coasting through Standege tunnel on batteries before the congested twisty bits on either side because there's not even enough cash to put up electric wires. Including this bit https://www.flickr.com/photos/loose_grip_99/6046073242/
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853
    isam said:

    eek said:

    Quite the thread from Chris Curtis of Opinium, this bit stuck out.

    We can also compare how Johnson is viewed now with how May was viewed in March 2019 (4 months before she was booted out).

    Johnson beats her on just one metric "Is able to get things done".

    When it comes to sticking to principles, 2019 May is 24 points ahead.


    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1460275673344487425

    Sticks to principles Boris scores 24% compared to May's 50%

    Do 24% of poll responders ignore all news?
    Isn’t it comparing Boris now with May when her party were about 25 points clear in the polls? Pretty misleading I’d say
    It's comparing Boris now with May at the same time of her Premiership in May 2019 the Tories weren't 25 points clear (if they were Boris never would have had a chance to become PM).
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,869
    edited November 15
    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."

    So what are they playing at?

    It’s capital investment, so unlikely to be about the money.

    Most of the Tory opposition is motivated by the concerns of Tories in the Home Counties - yet that part is going ahead.

    Where’s the upside of dropping the bit near Nottingham?
    To paraphrase Yes Minister, it has been years and years since the Department of Transport had a permanent secretary who attended Leeds University :wink:

    (Although a little research does show she attended Hull uni - maybe a bit of more local anti-West Yorkshire sentiment?)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,632
    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."

    So what are they playing at?

    It’s capital investment, so unlikely to be about the money.

    Most of the Tory opposition is motivated by the concerns of Tories in the Home Counties - yet that part is going ahead.

    Where’s the upside of dropping the bit near Nottingham?
    It's a dog's breakfast. Another clanger from Johnson. Although I suspect this time it is the Treasury.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,609
    eek said:

    Quite the thread from Chris Curtis of Opinium, this bit stuck out.

    We can also compare how Johnson is viewed now with how May was viewed in March 2019 (4 months before she was booted out).

    Johnson beats her on just one metric "Is able to get things done".

    When it comes to sticking to principles, 2019 May is 24 points ahead.


    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1460275673344487425

    Sticks to principles Boris scores 24% compared to May's 50%

    Do 24% of poll responders ignore all news?
    It's quite easy to stick to principles when you have only one: What's in it for me?

  • isamisam Posts: 38,544
    eek said:

    isam said:

    eek said:

    Quite the thread from Chris Curtis of Opinium, this bit stuck out.

    We can also compare how Johnson is viewed now with how May was viewed in March 2019 (4 months before she was booted out).

    Johnson beats her on just one metric "Is able to get things done".

    When it comes to sticking to principles, 2019 May is 24 points ahead.


    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1460275673344487425

    Sticks to principles Boris scores 24% compared to May's 50%

    Do 24% of poll responders ignore all news?
    Isn’t it comparing Boris now with May when her party were about 25 points clear in the polls? Pretty misleading I’d say
    It's comparing Boris now with May at the same time of her Premiership in May 2019 the Tories weren't 25 points clear (if they were Boris never would have had a chance to become PM).
    Yes you’re right, I realised my mistake & edited my post.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516
    Basically, apart from Comres, we are level pegging (Opinium conducted over roughly the same timeframe) with a hung parliament likely but the Tories probably ahead on seats after the boundary changes but Starmer PM if he can get SNP confidence and supply
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240
    maaarsh said:

    http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/logcasesbyage.png

    Case rise seems to have levelled off entirely, most ages and the total pointing slightly down now, so the increases still coming through the daily totals are just as we're comparing to a lower level last week rather than still in the process of rising.

    Yup

    image
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,573
    edited November 15
    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."

    So what are they playing at?

    It’s capital investment, so unlikely to be about the money.

    Most of the Tory opposition is motivated by the concerns of Tories in the Home Counties - yet that part is going ahead.

    Where’s the upside of dropping the bit near Nottingham?
    I think it is indeed the HC Tories - being appeased about money not being spent on northern proles (their views/language, not mine).
    Apart from within Leeds (who seemingly get the tram network they've always / never wanted) I can see this costing a whole lot of Tory seats.

    The Brexit dividend of higher pay will be long forgotten by 2023 but most Red Wall MPs will be hard pushed to answer what have you given this constituency...
    Being stuck with the diesels (and as you say the equivalent of Sprinters) while Home Counties types swoosh around all electric will send a very strong '**** off you second class type' message in well-populated areas.especially after years of Mr J going on and on and on about levelling up and Powerhouse Rail and HS2 and then scrubbing them so abruptly. A few trams for Leeds won't cut it - hell, even Croydon has its own tram system.

    Edit: as RP points out: a few pretty drawings of trams won't cut it.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,659
    eek said:

    Quite the thread from Chris Curtis of Opinium, this bit stuck out.

    We can also compare how Johnson is viewed now with how May was viewed in March 2019 (4 months before she was booted out).

    Johnson beats her on just one metric "Is able to get things done".

    When it comes to sticking to principles, 2019 May is 24 points ahead.


    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1460275673344487425

    Sticks to principles Boris scores 24% compared to May's 50%

    Do 24% of poll responders ignore all news?
    I was going to attack May, but then I realised she is very consistent in her principles.

    As home secretary she talked tough on immigration and delivered record numbers.

    As PM she talked tough on Brexit whilst trying to deliver a sell out.

    Hard to know whether her principles include lying or incompetance, but it must be one or the other.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    How do we know? COVID will have cancelled most trips this year.
  • Lead now at 1% down from 6%

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Labour Lead in our GB Voting Intention for the Second Time This Year.

    Full results (15 Nov):

    Labour 37% (-1)
    Conservative 36% (-)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 10 Nov
  • eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."

    So what are they playing at?

    It’s capital investment, so unlikely to be about the money.

    Most of the Tory opposition is motivated by the concerns of Tories in the Home Counties - yet that part is going ahead.

    Where’s the upside of dropping the bit near Nottingham?
    I think it is indeed the HC Tories - being appeased about money not being spent on northern proles (their views/language, not mine).
    Apart from within Leeds (who seemingly get the tram network they've always / never wanted) I can see this costing a whole lot of Tory seats.

    The Brexit dividend of higher pay will be long forgotten by 2023 but most Red Wall MPs will be hard pushed to answer what have you given this constituency...
    They aren't getting the tram - just yet more money for yet another study into why a tram network is unaffordable.

    Connectivity across the Pennines is woeful - dense urban areas, large town and cities where they are close by but take an eternity to get to. Tories have promised big, will deliver small and make the truly stupid mistake of claiming to have delivered huuuuge. Hence "three new high speed lines" when in practice its half of one.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085
    Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    The government says it is the pandemic?

    Hmm. If it is Brexit then that is ridiculous, and HMG needs to sort it at once. They are our rules and we can change them
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,946
    Whatever happened to our previous Gold Standard ICM?

    Anyway the new one SavantaComRes is proving an excellent replacement
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,632

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."

    So what are they playing at?

    It’s capital investment, so unlikely to be about the money.

    Most of the Tory opposition is motivated by the concerns of Tories in the Home Counties - yet that part is going ahead.

    Where’s the upside of dropping the bit near Nottingham?
    I think it is indeed the HC Tories - being appeased about money not being spent on northern proles (their views/language, not mine).
    Apart from within Leeds (who seemingly get the tram network they've always / never wanted) I can see this costing a whole lot of Tory seats.

    The Brexit dividend of higher pay will be long forgotten by 2023 but most Red Wall MPs will be hard pushed to answer what have you given this constituency...
    They aren't getting the tram - just yet more money for yet another study into why a tram network is unaffordable.

    Connectivity across the Pennines is woeful - dense urban areas, large town and cities where they are close by but take an eternity to get to. Tories have promised big, will deliver small and make the truly stupid mistake of claiming to have delivered huuuuge. Hence "three new high speed lines" when in practice its half of one.
    I believe Johnson described the forthcoming plans as "fantastic" this afternoon.

    Which as we all know means they are utterly shit and embarrassingly woeful.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,701
    Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    I wonder if the global pandemic would have played a role there?
  • When the CEO of a company is an amoral clown you know that he is going to surround himself with other amoral clowns and the stability and reputation of that company is going to take a battering until he is ousted by the shareholders. The Tories need to get rid of the idiots at the top before they find themselves out of office for decades

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/tory-jacob-rees-mogg-faces-calls-for-standards-probe-over-6m-in-cheap-loans/ar-AAQJpGw?ocid=entnewsntp
  • Roger said:

    Whatever happened to our previous Gold Standard ICM?

    Anyway the new one SavantaComRes is proving an excellent replacement

    A couple of things

    1) A few of their top bods left and formed DeltaPoll

    and

    2) The Guardian dropped their monthly ICM poll

    So we don't see much of them these days.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,659
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    The government says it is the pandemic?

    Hmm. If it is Brexit then that is ridiculous, and HMG needs to sort it at once. They are our rules and we can change them
    I've seen some shite copied and pasted in my time but this is a belter. If foreign school trips aren't down 99% on 2019 it's a disgrace, and that's nothing to do with Brexit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240

    Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    How do we know? COVID will have cancelled most trips this year.
    Of the three schools I know personally, I think the parents would have asked for anyone scheduling a foreign trip to be sectioned.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085

    BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."

    This feels like a clusterfuck, and possibly worse than Patergate, long term


    No Northern Powerhouse route is utterly stupid
  • isamisam Posts: 38,544
    edited November 15

    Lead now at 1% down from 6%

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Labour Lead in our GB Voting Intention for the Second Time This Year.

    Full results (15 Nov):

    Labour 37% (-1)
    Conservative 36% (-)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 10 Nov

    Different pollsters, though? The 6 point lead was ComRes.

    Sir Keir ahead on net satisfaction now, -9 playing Boris’s -10, though Boris still leads on Gross Positives, 35 to 26, which I think is the more important metric
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,319
    edited November 15
    RedfieldWilton

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -10%, a four-point decrease since last week. This week’s poll finds 45% disapproving (up 3%) of his overall job performance, against 35% approving (down 1%).

    Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has not changed in the past week, still standing at -9%. 35% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 1%), while 26% approve (up 1%). Meanwhile, 33% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (up 2%).


    Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 40% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a result which has decreased slightly from 42% in last week’s poll. Conversely, 31% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (down 1%).


    More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (43% to 29%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (42% to 32%), ‘can work with foreign leaders’ (40% to 34%), ‘can bring British people together’ (38% to 33%).

    Keir Starmer continues to lead over Boris Johnson when it comes to best embodying the descriptions of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (40% to 28%) and ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (35% to 33%).

    Meanwhile, pluralities of respondents say they do not know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (46%), ‘is creative’ (43%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (40%), or ‘has the better foreign policy strategy’ (40%).
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,265

    I can't see the sense in banning the sale of internal combustion engines from 2030, and not having a comprehensive plan to electrify every railway line.

    The question of which technology is going to be used is still up in the air.

    My guess is that it will be battery packs on trains, with charging from overhead in various areas.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/11/can-we-run-our-trains-using-big-batteries/ - that is for the US, where the train usage is much less favourable for electrification.
    Ah, I suppose that makes sense. Maybe you could have trains charge up from overheads on the approach and departure from stations, and that would mean they could use power from the overhead wires for the most energy-intensive phase of the acceleration from the station.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085
    maaarsh said:

    http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/logcasesbyage.png

    Case rise seems to have levelled off entirely, most ages and the total pointing slightly down now, so the increases still coming through the daily totals are just as we're comparing to a lower level last week rather than still in the process of rising.

    OK, that's good news. Does look like we are cresting a wave rather than riding a surge. A clear booster effect there, as well
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,069
    edited November 15
    Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    I can't access that piece but it will be because the operators cannot get work permits for those who accompany the children.

    In the ski tourism industry it is career-ending for ski instructors. I know one who worked in Verbier every winter but now cannot due to Brexit.

    It is a little more encouraging for chalet-staff. The chalet companies, who usually employ young Brits doing a gap year, are having to advertise positions locally (i.e. in France) for EU staff first before offering jobs to the British. Then they apply for a work permit for them, which enables them to get a visa from the French Embassy.

    The end result is usually OK because French locals whilst happy to be a chalet cook do not want to do the other work particular to chalet girls/boys (e.g. sorting out punters' problems and cleaning the loos).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,573

    I can't see the sense in banning the sale of internal combustion engines from 2030, and not having a comprehensive plan to electrify every railway line.

    The question of which technology is going to be used is still up in the air.

    My guess is that it will be battery packs on trains, with charging from overhead in various areas.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/11/can-we-run-our-trains-using-big-batteries/ - that is for the US, where the train usage is much less favourable for electrification.
    Ah, I suppose that makes sense. Maybe you could have trains charge up from overheads on the approach and departure from stations, and that would mean they could use power from the overhead wires for the most energy-intensive phase of the acceleration from the station.
    I still worry that they'd simply use biodiesel - especially how long it seems to take to get new trains approved, fuinded, and actually up and running.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853
    edited November 15
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    I wonder if the global pandemic would have played a role there?
    Yep - no school will be running or even contemplating foreign trips for a while yet.

    Heck the HCPT Easter Lourdes trip (which the Northern Catholic Secondary schools organise their timetable round) is about to be cancelled for a 3rd year in a row.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,659
    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/logcasesbyage.png

    Case rise seems to have levelled off entirely, most ages and the total pointing slightly down now, so the increases still coming through the daily totals are just as we're comparing to a lower level last week rather than still in the process of rising.

    OK, that's good news. Does look like we are cresting a wave rather than riding a surge. A clear booster effect there, as well
    Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    ·
    1h
    Countering waning immunity
    The new data from England today shows a booster (3rd) shot increased vaccine effectiveness from 44% to 93% for Astra Zeneca and from 62.5 to 94% for Pfizer, vs symptomatic infection, age 50+
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,562
    Steve Bannon, a longtime ally of former US president Donald Trump, turned himself in to an FBI field office in Washington on Monday, after being charged with contempt of Congress.

    The 67-year-old was taken into custody, expected to appear in district court in the afternoon.
  • Lead now at 1% down from 6%

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Labour Lead in our GB Voting Intention for the Second Time This Year.

    Full results (15 Nov):

    Labour 37% (-1)
    Conservative 36% (-)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 10 Nov

    Fake news.

    The Labour lead was 2% with the last R&W.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 620
    Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    Anyone aware of any foreign school trips from the UK to abroad in the last year? I know of outward bound trips to Wales, but its not what I would call (completely) foreign.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240

    I can't see the sense in banning the sale of internal combustion engines from 2030, and not having a comprehensive plan to electrify every railway line.

    The question of which technology is going to be used is still up in the air.

    My guess is that it will be battery packs on trains, with charging from overhead in various areas.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/11/can-we-run-our-trains-using-big-batteries/ - that is for the US, where the train usage is much less favourable for electrification.
    Ah, I suppose that makes sense. Maybe you could have trains charge up from overheads on the approach and departure from stations, and that would mean they could use power from the overhead wires for the most energy-intensive phase of the acceleration from the station.
    There is a bit of battle between hydrogen advocates vs electrification. I think electrification plus batteries will win.

    The exact layout of the overheads will be interesting. One suggestion is that in the longer term, the falling cost of batteries would mean that overheads might actually be reduced - they are expensive to put up and expensive to maintain.

    Overheads departing from a station for a certain distance would be one scheme - the approach would use regenerative braking to store energy in the batteries.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,001
    edited November 15
    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."

    So what are they playing at?

    It’s capital investment, so unlikely to be about the money.

    Most of the Tory opposition is motivated by the concerns of Tories in the Home Counties - yet that part is going ahead.

    Where’s the upside of dropping the bit near Nottingham?
    I think it is indeed the HC Tories - being appeased about money not being spent on northern proles (their views/language, not mine).
    Apart from within Leeds (who seemingly get the tram network they've always / never wanted) I can see this costing a whole lot of Tory seats.

    The Brexit dividend of higher pay will be long forgotten by 2023 but most Red Wall MPs will be hard pushed to answer what have you given this constituency...
    Far be it from me to defend the Tories (perish the thought), but I wonder if people are misreading the strategy? Maybe they are banking on the levelling-up fund - those dollops of money going to largely Tory towns - to provide concrete evidence of what they are doing for the Red Wall? After all, such schemes could pay off in a much shorter timescale than the grandiose infrastructure projects such as Northerner Powerhouse Rail or whatever it's called. Let's be honest, their main concern is to have concrete (sic) things in place in time to win the next GE.
  • isam said:

    Lead now at 1% down from 6%

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Labour Lead in our GB Voting Intention for the Second Time This Year.

    Full results (15 Nov):

    Labour 37% (-1)
    Conservative 36% (-)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 10 Nov

    Different pollsters, though? The 6 point lead was ComRes.

    Sir Keir ahead on net satisfaction now, -9 playing Boris’s -10, though Boris still leads on Gross Positives, 35 to 26, which I think is the more important metric
    My apologies I got that wrong


    However this part really stands out

    Pluralities of respondents say they do not know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (46%), ‘is creative’ (43%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (40%), or ‘has the better foreign policy strategy’ (40%).

    46% do not know which of the two tells the truth !!!!!!!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,493

    Quite the thread from Chris Curtis of Opinium, this bit stuck out.

    We can also compare how Johnson is viewed now with how May was viewed in March 2019 (4 months before she was booted out).

    Johnson beats her on just one metric "Is able to get things done".

    When it comes to sticking to principles, 2019 May is 24 points ahead.


    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1460275673344487425

    That one metric might be due to the subliminal effect of his brutalist sloganizing. Get Brexit Done. Get Social Care Done. Get xyz Done etc.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,864

    Lead now at 1% down from 6%

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Labour Lead in our GB Voting Intention for the Second Time This Year.

    Full results (15 Nov):

    Labour 37% (-1)
    Conservative 36% (-)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 10 Nov

    Different polling firm, can't compare the 6% to this.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724

    Lead now at 1% down from 6%

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Labour Lead in our GB Voting Intention for the Second Time This Year.

    Full results (15 Nov):

    Labour 37% (-1)
    Conservative 36% (-)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 10 Nov

    Fake news.

    The Labour lead was 2% with the last R&W.
    Though the header title hasn't aged well!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,069
    edited November 15
    AlistairM said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    Anyone aware of any foreign school trips from the UK to abroad in the last year? I know of outward bound trips to Wales, but its not what I would call (completely) foreign.
    No but there are loads planned for the winter/spring.

    The first issue is the one I posted about this morning - that children who have had one jab (the UK recommendation) are classed as unvaccinated everywhere other than the UK. This has partly been sorted today with the announcement of the second jab for 16 - 17 year olds. Our friends daughter, age 15, has just had her school trip cancelled and she is very upset about it. Her cancellation is partly due to the one-jab limitation but is also due to the problem that I describe in my last post below.

    It is a real shame.
  • Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    I can't access that piece but it will be because the operators cannot get work permits for those who accompany the children.

    In the ski tourism industry it is career-ending for ski instructors. I know one who worked in Verbier every winter but now cannot due to Brexit.

    It is a little more encouraging for chalet-staff. The chalet companies, who usually employ young Brits doing a gap year, are having to advertise positions locally (i.e. in France) for EU staff first before offering jobs to the British. Then they apply for a work permit for them, which enables them to get a visa from the French Embassy.

    The end result is usually OK because French locals whilst happy to be a chalet cook do not want to do the other work particular to chalet girls/boys (e.g. sorting out punters' problems and cleaning the loos).
    Isabelle Regiani has led class trips to the UK from her school in eastern France throughout her 22-year career as an English teacher, but she will not be bringing her students back any time soon.

    Post-Brexit changes to UK immigration rules mean EU schoolchildren can no longer travel on group passports and non-EU students require expensive individual visas, putting a trip to England financially out of reach for some of Regiani’s pupils and thousands of others in mainland Europe.

    Regiani’s students at Jean Jaurès middle school in Sarreguemines will instead have to settle for Calais. “It’s disappointing,” she said. “We’ll visit places in touch with English culture and we’ll have a walk on the beach in Calais and we’ll see the cliffs, and I’ll say ‘see there’s the white cliffs of Dover’.”

    Large tour companies across the continent have reported a collapse in school bookings to Britain in 2022. Despite the pandemic, relative to the UK inquiries are increasing for other destinations where English is widely spoken in the EU, such as Ireland, Nordic countries and the Netherlands.

    The trends bear out warnings to Boris Johnson by French and German school exchange companies last spring that the new immigration rules would erode school cultural exchanges between the EU and UK, with negative consequences for cultural exchanges that were “crucial for the future of our societies”.

    Travel industry estimates suggest French and German schools alone send at least 17,000 trips to the UK each year, with French school groups’ direct input into the UK valued at £100m. The British Educational Travel Association, BETA, estimates the total value of the industry, including language schools, at £1.5bn a year.

    A survey last month of French schools by Unosel, the international association for language and homestays, suggested the number of planned trips to the UK had fallen by almost two-thirds. Eurovoyages, a French company that sent 11,000 students to the UK in 2019, said less than 100 students would travel to Britain this year, with clients instead switching to Ireland, Spain and the Netherlands.

    Marie Bayol from Verdie Open Class, another French operator, said it had organised more than 800 school groups in 2019 for 36,000 students, but had just 34 groups scheduled for 2022, none of which had confirmed.


    I loved my school trips.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,430
    There is only so much that can be gained by micro-analysing recent COVID data, but I was curios so calculated the change in reported cases in England for each day compared to the same day a week earlier.

    1. Monday: 32,081
    2. Tuesday: 28,531
    3. Wednesday: 31,317
    4. Thursday: 30,166
    5. Friday: 28,490
    6. Saturday: 26,250
    7. Sunday: 23,779 -20%
    8. Monday: 24,979 -28%
    9. Tuesday: 27,872 -2%
    10. Wednesday: 35,541 +12%
    11. Thursday: 35,472 +15%
    12. Friday: 33,155 +15%
    13. Saturday: 33,493 +12%
    14. Sunday: 29,404 +19%
    15. Monday: 31,440 +22%

    I don't think this shows much, but as I have typed it out I thought I would share.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,573

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."

    So what are they playing at?

    It’s capital investment, so unlikely to be about the money.

    Most of the Tory opposition is motivated by the concerns of Tories in the Home Counties - yet that part is going ahead.

    Where’s the upside of dropping the bit near Nottingham?
    I think it is indeed the HC Tories - being appeased about money not being spent on northern proles (their views/language, not mine).
    Apart from within Leeds (who seemingly get the tram network they've always / never wanted) I can see this costing a whole lot of Tory seats.

    The Brexit dividend of higher pay will be long forgotten by 2023 but most Red Wall MPs will be hard pushed to answer what have you given this constituency...
    Far be it from me to defend the Tories (perish the thought), but I wonder if people are misreading the strategy? Maybe they are banking on the levelling-up fund - those dollops of money going to largely Tory towns - to provide concrete evidence of what they are doing for the Red Wall? After all, such schemes could pay off in a much shorter timescale than the grandiose infrastructure projects such as Northerner Powerhouse Rail or whatever it's called. Let's be honest, their main concern is to have concrete (sic) things in place in time to win the next GE.
    Yes, but why drop longer-term promises such as HS2 which nobody expectst to be ready to run like a Hornby train set? The only reason I can see for that is to appease the posh landowners and nimbies in the upper market suburbs and countryside around the conurbations.
  • HYUFD said:

    Basically, apart from Comres, we are level pegging (Opinium conducted over roughly the same timeframe) with a hung parliament likely but the Tories probably ahead on seats after the boundary changes but Starmer PM if he can get SNP confidence and supply

    And in Tory Party HQ, the dust will be blown off the old posters, a few faces exchanged. All England will shudder at the thought, as, in posh Remoaner seats (I'm on a mission to reclaim it) 'A vote for the Lib Dems' will be become 'a vote to put Keir in Nicola's pocket' and the Tories will squeak it.
  • Lead now at 1% down from 6%

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Labour Lead in our GB Voting Intention for the Second Time This Year.

    Full results (15 Nov):

    Labour 37% (-1)
    Conservative 36% (-)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 10 Nov

    Fake news.

    The Labour lead was 2% with the last R&W.
    I have apologised for my error as I always do if I get something wrong
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,395
    edited November 15

    Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    How do we know? COVID will have cancelled most trips this year.
    It talks about bookings for next year
  • MaxPB said:

    Lead now at 1% down from 6%

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Labour Lead in our GB Voting Intention for the Second Time This Year.

    Full results (15 Nov):

    Labour 37% (-1)
    Conservative 36% (-)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 10 Nov

    Different polling firm, can't compare the 6% to this.
    Yes I know
  • Also the FT cites one 'Christoph Knobloch, head of CTS Reisen, an operator in Lemgo, Germany, usually runs 1,600 school trips annually to the UK.'

    I'm such a fucking child at times.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,265
    Carnyx said:

    I can't see the sense in banning the sale of internal combustion engines from 2030, and not having a comprehensive plan to electrify every railway line.

    The question of which technology is going to be used is still up in the air.

    My guess is that it will be battery packs on trains, with charging from overhead in various areas.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/11/can-we-run-our-trains-using-big-batteries/ - that is for the US, where the train usage is much less favourable for electrification.
    Ah, I suppose that makes sense. Maybe you could have trains charge up from overheads on the approach and departure from stations, and that would mean they could use power from the overhead wires for the most energy-intensive phase of the acceleration from the station.
    I still worry that they'd simply use biodiesel - especially how long it seems to take to get new trains approved, fuinded, and actually up and running.
    Yes. If the momentum behind electric cars continues to build then it won't be long until the people currently selling biofuel for motor fuels will be looking for new buyers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085
    Stocky said:

    AlistairM said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    Anyone aware of any foreign school trips from the UK to abroad in the last year? I know of outward bound trips to Wales, but its not what I would call (completely) foreign.
    No but there are loads planned for the winter/spring.

    The first issue is the one I posted about this morning - that children who have had one jab (the UK recommendation) are classed as unvaccinated everywhere other than the UK. This has partly been sorted today with the announcement of the second jab for 16 - 17 year olds. Our friends daughter, age 15, has just had her school trip cancelled and she is very upset about it. Her cancellation is partly due to the one-jab limitation but is also due to the problem that I describe in my last post below.

    It is a real shame.
    It is also, surely, a shame that we can fix, at least on our side. Just change the rules for school trips, and hope that the EU sees sense and does the same for us
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 620
    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/logcasesbyage.png

    Case rise seems to have levelled off entirely, most ages and the total pointing slightly down now, so the increases still coming through the daily totals are just as we're comparing to a lower level last week rather than still in the process of rising.

    OK, that's good news. Does look like we are cresting a wave rather than riding a surge. A clear booster effect there, as well
    Hopefully it is an initial surge following the end of half term. I know many families where most of them have come down with Covid as a result of getting it from a child. I believe in all cases they were double jabbed but symptoms have been mild.

    Good news they are going to be starting on the 40+ cohort for boosters but they should have done that a couple of weeks ago to get the pace of boosters moving.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240
    BigRich said:

    There is only so much that can be gained by micro-analysing recent COVID data, but I was curios so calculated the change in reported cases in England for each day compared to the same day a week earlier.

    1. Monday: 32,081
    2. Tuesday: 28,531
    3. Wednesday: 31,317
    4. Thursday: 30,166
    5. Friday: 28,490
    6. Saturday: 26,250
    7. Sunday: 23,779 -20%
    8. Monday: 24,979 -28%
    9. Tuesday: 27,872 -2%
    10. Wednesday: 35,541 +12%
    11. Thursday: 35,472 +15%
    12. Friday: 33,155 +15%
    13. Saturday: 33,493 +12%
    14. Sunday: 29,404 +19%
    15. Monday: 31,440 +22%

    I don't think this shows much, but as I have typed it out I thought I would share.

    The detailed age breakdown for England -

    image

    Suggest that cases are going up among the children.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,069

    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    I can't access that piece but it will be because the operators cannot get work permits for those who accompany the children.

    In the ski tourism industry it is career-ending for ski instructors. I know one who worked in Verbier every winter but now cannot due to Brexit.

    It is a little more encouraging for chalet-staff. The chalet companies, who usually employ young Brits doing a gap year, are having to advertise positions locally (i.e. in France) for EU staff first before offering jobs to the British. Then they apply for a work permit for them, which enables them to get a visa from the French Embassy.

    The end result is usually OK because French locals whilst happy to be a chalet cook do not want to do the other work particular to chalet girls/boys (e.g. sorting out punters' problems and cleaning the loos).
    Isabelle Regiani has led class trips to the UK from her school in eastern France throughout her 22-year career as an English teacher, but she will not be bringing her students back any time soon.

    Post-Brexit changes to UK immigration rules mean EU schoolchildren can no longer travel on group passports and non-EU students require expensive individual visas, putting a trip to England financially out of reach for some of Regiani’s pupils and thousands of others in mainland Europe.

    Regiani’s students at Jean Jaurès middle school in Sarreguemines will instead have to settle for Calais. “It’s disappointing,” she said. “We’ll visit places in touch with English culture and we’ll have a walk on the beach in Calais and we’ll see the cliffs, and I’ll say ‘see there’s the white cliffs of Dover’.”

    Large tour companies across the continent have reported a collapse in school bookings to Britain in 2022. Despite the pandemic, relative to the UK inquiries are increasing for other destinations where English is widely spoken in the EU, such as Ireland, Nordic countries and the Netherlands.

    The trends bear out warnings to Boris Johnson by French and German school exchange companies last spring that the new immigration rules would erode school cultural exchanges between the EU and UK, with negative consequences for cultural exchanges that were “crucial for the future of our societies”.

    Travel industry estimates suggest French and German schools alone send at least 17,000 trips to the UK each year, with French school groups’ direct input into the UK valued at £100m. The British Educational Travel Association, BETA, estimates the total value of the industry, including language schools, at £1.5bn a year.

    A survey last month of French schools by Unosel, the international association for language and homestays, suggested the number of planned trips to the UK had fallen by almost two-thirds. Eurovoyages, a French company that sent 11,000 students to the UK in 2019, said less than 100 students would travel to Britain this year, with clients instead switching to Ireland, Spain and the Netherlands.

    Marie Bayol from Verdie Open Class, another French operator, said it had organised more than 800 school groups in 2019 for 36,000 students, but had just 34 groups scheduled for 2022, none of which had confirmed.


    I loved my school trips.
    Thanks. That's interesting. So EU school trips to UK are similarly affected.

    FFS they need to sort this out. Where is the common sense?
  • Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    AlistairM said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    Anyone aware of any foreign school trips from the UK to abroad in the last year? I know of outward bound trips to Wales, but its not what I would call (completely) foreign.
    No but there are loads planned for the winter/spring.

    The first issue is the one I posted about this morning - that children who have had one jab (the UK recommendation) are classed as unvaccinated everywhere other than the UK. This has partly been sorted today with the announcement of the second jab for 16 - 17 year olds. Our friends daughter, age 15, has just had her school trip cancelled and she is very upset about it. Her cancellation is partly due to the one-jab limitation but is also due to the problem that I describe in my last post below.

    It is a real shame.
    It is also, surely, a shame that we can fix, at least on our side. Just change the rules for school trips, and hope that the EU sees sense and does the same for us
    Won't happen, the government won't make any exceptions, that whole free movement thingy, they are absolutists on that.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 196
    maaarsh said:

    http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/logcasesbyage.png

    Case rise seems to have levelled off entirely, most ages and the total pointing slightly down now, so the increases still coming through the daily totals are just as we're comparing to a lower level last week rather than still in the process of rising.

    This is great - the clearest illustration I've seen of the age group trends.

    If we are to pay attention to cases, the red line on that chart is the only one of importance.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,701

    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    I can't access that piece but it will be because the operators cannot get work permits for those who accompany the children.

    In the ski tourism industry it is career-ending for ski instructors. I know one who worked in Verbier every winter but now cannot due to Brexit.

    It is a little more encouraging for chalet-staff. The chalet companies, who usually employ young Brits doing a gap year, are having to advertise positions locally (i.e. in France) for EU staff first before offering jobs to the British. Then they apply for a work permit for them, which enables them to get a visa from the French Embassy.

    The end result is usually OK because French locals whilst happy to be a chalet cook do not want to do the other work particular to chalet girls/boys (e.g. sorting out punters' problems and cleaning the loos).
    Isabelle Regiani has led class trips to the UK from her school in eastern France throughout her 22-year career as an English teacher, but she will not be bringing her students back any time soon.

    Post-Brexit changes to UK immigration rules mean EU schoolchildren can no longer travel on group passports and non-EU students require expensive individual visas, putting a trip to England financially out of reach for some of Regiani’s pupils and thousands of others in mainland Europe.

    Regiani’s students at Jean Jaurès middle school in Sarreguemines will instead have to settle for Calais. “It’s disappointing,” she said. “We’ll visit places in touch with English culture and we’ll have a walk on the beach in Calais and we’ll see the cliffs, and I’ll say ‘see there’s the white cliffs of Dover’.”

    Large tour companies across the continent have reported a collapse in school bookings to Britain in 2022. Despite the pandemic, relative to the UK inquiries are increasing for other destinations where English is widely spoken in the EU, such as Ireland, Nordic countries and the Netherlands.

    The trends bear out warnings to Boris Johnson by French and German school exchange companies last spring that the new immigration rules would erode school cultural exchanges between the EU and UK, with negative consequences for cultural exchanges that were “crucial for the future of our societies”.

    Travel industry estimates suggest French and German schools alone send at least 17,000 trips to the UK each year, with French school groups’ direct input into the UK valued at £100m. The British Educational Travel Association, BETA, estimates the total value of the industry, including language schools, at £1.5bn a year.

    A survey last month of French schools by Unosel, the international association for language and homestays, suggested the number of planned trips to the UK had fallen by almost two-thirds. Eurovoyages, a French company that sent 11,000 students to the UK in 2019, said less than 100 students would travel to Britain this year, with clients instead switching to Ireland, Spain and the Netherlands.

    Marie Bayol from Verdie Open Class, another French operator, said it had organised more than 800 school groups in 2019 for 36,000 students, but had just 34 groups scheduled for 2022, none of which had confirmed.


    I loved my school trips.
    Hold on, why do tourists require visas?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,069

    BigRich said:

    There is only so much that can be gained by micro-analysing recent COVID data, but I was curios so calculated the change in reported cases in England for each day compared to the same day a week earlier.

    1. Monday: 32,081
    2. Tuesday: 28,531
    3. Wednesday: 31,317
    4. Thursday: 30,166
    5. Friday: 28,490
    6. Saturday: 26,250
    7. Sunday: 23,779 -20%
    8. Monday: 24,979 -28%
    9. Tuesday: 27,872 -2%
    10. Wednesday: 35,541 +12%
    11. Thursday: 35,472 +15%
    12. Friday: 33,155 +15%
    13. Saturday: 33,493 +12%
    14. Sunday: 29,404 +19%
    15. Monday: 31,440 +22%

    I don't think this shows much, but as I have typed it out I thought I would share.

    The detailed age breakdown for England -

    image

    Suggest that cases are going up among the children.
    Are they going up among the children or are more children testing positive due to the return to school? What I mean is, are more children catching the virus or is the number the same but more are being detected due to testing children routinely?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,854
    From last week:

    "Tory MP faces bankruptcy over unpaid taxes
    Exclusive: court records show petition filed by HMRC against Adam Afriyie, MP for Windsor"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/08/tory-mp-faces-bankruptcy-over-unpaid-taxes-and-may-have-to-step-down-adam-afriyie
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,493
    HYUFD said:

    Basically, apart from Comres, we are level pegging (Opinium conducted over roughly the same timeframe) with a hung parliament likely but the Tories probably ahead on seats after the boundary changes but Starmer PM if he can get SNP confidence and supply

    Looks ok for Lab when you consider the LD and Green numbers. And then, as you say, the 40 odd probable SNP seats. If there were an election called now I'd give SKS close to a 50% chance of becoming PM, wouldn't you?
  • tlg86 said:

    Lead now at 1% down from 6%

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Labour Lead in our GB Voting Intention for the Second Time This Year.

    Full results (15 Nov):

    Labour 37% (-1)
    Conservative 36% (-)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 10 Nov

    Fake news.

    The Labour lead was 2% with the last R&W.
    Though the header title hasn't aged well!
    The joys of blogging on major political news.

    Events dear boy.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,069
    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    I can't access that piece but it will be because the operators cannot get work permits for those who accompany the children.

    In the ski tourism industry it is career-ending for ski instructors. I know one who worked in Verbier every winter but now cannot due to Brexit.

    It is a little more encouraging for chalet-staff. The chalet companies, who usually employ young Brits doing a gap year, are having to advertise positions locally (i.e. in France) for EU staff first before offering jobs to the British. Then they apply for a work permit for them, which enables them to get a visa from the French Embassy.

    The end result is usually OK because French locals whilst happy to be a chalet cook do not want to do the other work particular to chalet girls/boys (e.g. sorting out punters' problems and cleaning the loos).
    Isabelle Regiani has led class trips to the UK from her school in eastern France throughout her 22-year career as an English teacher, but she will not be bringing her students back any time soon.

    Post-Brexit changes to UK immigration rules mean EU schoolchildren can no longer travel on group passports and non-EU students require expensive individual visas, putting a trip to England financially out of reach for some of Regiani’s pupils and thousands of others in mainland Europe.

    Regiani’s students at Jean Jaurès middle school in Sarreguemines will instead have to settle for Calais. “It’s disappointing,” she said. “We’ll visit places in touch with English culture and we’ll have a walk on the beach in Calais and we’ll see the cliffs, and I’ll say ‘see there’s the white cliffs of Dover’.”

    Large tour companies across the continent have reported a collapse in school bookings to Britain in 2022. Despite the pandemic, relative to the UK inquiries are increasing for other destinations where English is widely spoken in the EU, such as Ireland, Nordic countries and the Netherlands.

    The trends bear out warnings to Boris Johnson by French and German school exchange companies last spring that the new immigration rules would erode school cultural exchanges between the EU and UK, with negative consequences for cultural exchanges that were “crucial for the future of our societies”.

    Travel industry estimates suggest French and German schools alone send at least 17,000 trips to the UK each year, with French school groups’ direct input into the UK valued at £100m. The British Educational Travel Association, BETA, estimates the total value of the industry, including language schools, at £1.5bn a year.

    A survey last month of French schools by Unosel, the international association for language and homestays, suggested the number of planned trips to the UK had fallen by almost two-thirds. Eurovoyages, a French company that sent 11,000 students to the UK in 2019, said less than 100 students would travel to Britain this year, with clients instead switching to Ireland, Spain and the Netherlands.

    Marie Bayol from Verdie Open Class, another French operator, said it had organised more than 800 school groups in 2019 for 36,000 students, but had just 34 groups scheduled for 2022, none of which had confirmed.


    I loved my school trips.
    Hold on, why do tourists require visas?

    It's not the tourists it's the employees of the tour companies.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,493
    IanB2 said:

    Steve Bannon, a longtime ally of former US president Donald Trump, turned himself in to an FBI field office in Washington on Monday, after being charged with contempt of Congress.

    The 67-year-old was taken into custody, expected to appear in district court in the afternoon.

    Is he going to sing like a canary?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,864
    edited November 15
    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/logcasesbyage.png

    Case rise seems to have levelled off entirely, most ages and the total pointing slightly down now, so the increases still coming through the daily totals are just as we're comparing to a lower level last week rather than still in the process of rising.

    OK, that's good news. Does look like we are cresting a wave rather than riding a surge. A clear booster effect there, as well
    There really is no need to panic. The time to panic would be if we saw over 100% WoW rises in cases followed by 60-70% rises in hospitalisations. If that happens then it would likely be due to a vaccine evading variant, there's simply too much vaccine+natural immunity in the UK. I know some are keen to dismiss the idea that reopening fully from July was the right decision because they don't like the politicians who did it and do like the politicians in other countries who called us all crazy but those 7.7m infections we've had to date vs not even 20% of that level in other countries is making a huge difference.

    I've done some quick maths on it and I think without boosters we're currently sitting at population immunity of about 82%. With boosters we could be getting to about 87%, with Delta it's thought that we need to hit population immunity of about 90-93% to get to herd immunity. The government decision to open up over 40s boosters and the likely opening of over 18s boosters is to make that happen. We would still need another 9m infections to reach that with natural immunity alone, even with VE against death still looking pretty good that still adds up to a lot of deaths and a lot of people using the NHS that could be very easily prevented. 9m infections at the current rates would take about 4 months.
  • Leon said:

    BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."

    This feels like a clusterfuck, and possibly worse than Patergate, long term


    No Northern Powerhouse route is utterly stupid
    For those people not from up north its hard to stress just how shagged transport between Lancashire and Yorkshire is. On the roads you have the M62 as the only decent route across, hence massive congestion hotspots at either end and armageddon if weather / accidents bring the hills bit to a stand.

    And the trains? Its awfully slow between Manc and Leeds / Sheffield with "expresses" having to share the same tracks as slow trains that stop at lots of stations on twisty and hilly routes.

    Having finally been promised the transformative "built it and they will come" approach, to pull out now will not be good for the Tories. Especially as - and its absurd to have to post this - they will try and claim they never offered "it" and are building "it" simultaneously.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853
    Stocky said:

    BigRich said:

    There is only so much that can be gained by micro-analysing recent COVID data, but I was curios so calculated the change in reported cases in England for each day compared to the same day a week earlier.

    1. Monday: 32,081
    2. Tuesday: 28,531
    3. Wednesday: 31,317
    4. Thursday: 30,166
    5. Friday: 28,490
    6. Saturday: 26,250
    7. Sunday: 23,779 -20%
    8. Monday: 24,979 -28%
    9. Tuesday: 27,872 -2%
    10. Wednesday: 35,541 +12%
    11. Thursday: 35,472 +15%
    12. Friday: 33,155 +15%
    13. Saturday: 33,493 +12%
    14. Sunday: 29,404 +19%
    15. Monday: 31,440 +22%

    I don't think this shows much, but as I have typed it out I thought I would share.

    The detailed age breakdown for England -

    image

    Suggest that cases are going up among the children.
    Are they going up among the children or are more children testing positive due to the return to school? What I mean is, are more children catching the virus or is the number the same but more are being detected due to testing children routinely?
    I think the theory is that it's one final hurrah / spread amongst school children now the bubble and other restrictions have been removed.

    So far this term 5 of my nephews and nieces have caught Covid and had to have some time off.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,069
    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    AlistairM said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    Anyone aware of any foreign school trips from the UK to abroad in the last year? I know of outward bound trips to Wales, but its not what I would call (completely) foreign.
    No but there are loads planned for the winter/spring.

    The first issue is the one I posted about this morning - that children who have had one jab (the UK recommendation) are classed as unvaccinated everywhere other than the UK. This has partly been sorted today with the announcement of the second jab for 16 - 17 year olds. Our friends daughter, age 15, has just had her school trip cancelled and she is very upset about it. Her cancellation is partly due to the one-jab limitation but is also due to the problem that I describe in my last post below.

    It is a real shame.
    It is also, surely, a shame that we can fix, at least on our side. Just change the rules for school trips, and hope that the EU sees sense and does the same for us
    Yes. Why haven't they done that?
  • Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    I can't access that piece but it will be because the operators cannot get work permits for those who accompany the children.

    In the ski tourism industry it is career-ending for ski instructors. I know one who worked in Verbier every winter but now cannot due to Brexit.

    It is a little more encouraging for chalet-staff. The chalet companies, who usually employ young Brits doing a gap year, are having to advertise positions locally (i.e. in France) for EU staff first before offering jobs to the British. Then they apply for a work permit for them, which enables them to get a visa from the French Embassy.

    The end result is usually OK because French locals whilst happy to be a chalet cook do not want to do the other work particular to chalet girls/boys (e.g. sorting out punters' problems and cleaning the loos).
    Hang on: do you mean that schools sending pupils to the UK are paying their teachers to go? I normally end up out of pocket after the trips I’ve done.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,701
    Stocky said:

    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Post-Brexit immigration rules lead to collapse in EU school trips to UK https://on.ft.com/3wO3omx

    I can't access that piece but it will be because the operators cannot get work permits for those who accompany the children.

    In the ski tourism industry it is career-ending for ski instructors. I know one who worked in Verbier every winter but now cannot due to Brexit.

    It is a little more encouraging for chalet-staff. The chalet companies, who usually employ young Brits doing a gap year, are having to advertise positions locally (i.e. in France) for EU staff first before offering jobs to the British. Then they apply for a work permit for them, which enables them to get a visa from the French Embassy.

    The end result is usually OK because French locals whilst happy to be a chalet cook do not want to do the other work particular to chalet girls/boys (e.g. sorting out punters' problems and cleaning the loos).
    Isabelle Regiani has led class trips to the UK from her school in eastern France throughout her 22-year career as an English teacher, but she will not be bringing her students back any time soon.

    Post-Brexit changes to UK immigration rules mean EU schoolchildren can no longer travel on group passports and non-EU students require expensive individual visas, putting a trip to England financially out of reach for some of Regiani’s pupils and thousands of others in mainland Europe.

    Regiani’s students at Jean Jaurès middle school in Sarreguemines will instead have to settle for Calais. “It’s disappointing,” she said. “We’ll visit places in touch with English culture and we’ll have a walk on the beach in Calais and we’ll see the cliffs, and I’ll say ‘see there’s the white cliffs of Dover’.”

    Large tour companies across the continent have reported a collapse in school bookings to Britain in 2022. Despite the pandemic, relative to the UK inquiries are increasing for other destinations where English is widely spoken in the EU, such as Ireland, Nordic countries and the Netherlands.

    The trends bear out warnings to Boris Johnson by French and German school exchange companies last spring that the new immigration rules would erode school cultural exchanges between the EU and UK, with negative consequences for cultural exchanges that were “crucial for the future of our societies”.

    Travel industry estimates suggest French and German schools alone send at least 17,000 trips to the UK each year, with French school groups’ direct input into the UK valued at £100m. The British Educational Travel Association, BETA, estimates the total value of the industry, including language schools, at £1.5bn a year.

    A survey last month of French schools by Unosel, the international association for language and homestays, suggested the number of planned trips to the UK had fallen by almost two-thirds. Eurovoyages, a French company that sent 11,000 students to the UK in 2019, said less than 100 students would travel to Britain this year, with clients instead switching to Ireland, Spain and the Netherlands.

    Marie Bayol from Verdie Open Class, another French operator, said it had organised more than 800 school groups in 2019 for 36,000 students, but had just 34 groups scheduled for 2022, none of which had confirmed.


    I loved my school trips.
    Hold on, why do tourists require visas?

    It's not the tourists it's the employees of the tour companies.
    That's not what the article talks about. It mentions EU and non-EU students. However there has been no change in the visa requirement for non-EU citizens, and EU citizens have visa free travel as tourists. It's not clear what the change actually is.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,001
    edited November 15
    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."

    So what are they playing at?

    It’s capital investment, so unlikely to be about the money.

    Most of the Tory opposition is motivated by the concerns of Tories in the Home Counties - yet that part is going ahead.

    Where’s the upside of dropping the bit near Nottingham?
    I think it is indeed the HC Tories - being appeased about money not being spent on northern proles (their views/language, not mine).
    Apart from within Leeds (who seemingly get the tram network they've always / never wanted) I can see this costing a whole lot of Tory seats.

    The Brexit dividend of higher pay will be long forgotten by 2023 but most Red Wall MPs will be hard pushed to answer what have you given this constituency...
    Far be it from me to defend the Tories (perish the thought), but I wonder if people are misreading the strategy? Maybe they are banking on the levelling-up fund - those dollops of money going to largely Tory towns - to provide concrete evidence of what they are doing for the Red Wall? After all, such schemes could pay off in a much shorter timescale than the grandiose infrastructure projects such as Northerner Powerhouse Rail or whatever it's called. Let's be honest, their main concern is to have concrete (sic) things in place in time to win the next GE.
    Yes, but why drop longer-term promises such as HS2 which nobody expectst to be ready to run like a Hornby train set? The only reason I can see for that is to appease the posh landowners and nimbies in the upper market suburbs and countryside around the conurbations.
    Exactly what you say. Plus they've overspent and run out of other people's money (he said, subtly trying to shift this sin from Labour to the Tories).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085

    Leon said:

    BBC reporting what I've already been posting - government has scrapped both High Speed 2 East and Northern Powerhouse Rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59292120

    "A proposed Northern Powerhouse route from Leeds to Manchester is now expected to be made up of some new line, but it will mostly consist of upgrades to the existing track.

    The new track on the route will not allow high-speed rail travel.

    The route is not expected to go via Bradford, a key request of many in the city and surrounding area."

    In other words we might get the very worst bits bypassed but mostly its going to be easing of curves and some grade separation.
    Q Can we at least have electric trains for fast acceleration and tilt for the curves?
    A No

    Vote Conservative all you red wallers! Even the "Trams for Leeds" bribe spun hard in the Sunday Times is now "The government is also expected to put money aside to explore setting up a tram service for Leeds."

    This feels like a clusterfuck, and possibly worse than Patergate, long term


    No Northern Powerhouse route is utterly stupid
    For those people not from up north its hard to stress just how shagged transport between Lancashire and Yorkshire is. On the roads you have the M62 as the only decent route across, hence massive congestion hotspots at either end and armageddon if weather / accidents bring the hills bit to a stand.

    And the trains? Its awfully slow between Manc and Leeds / Sheffield with "expresses" having to share the same tracks as slow trains that stop at lots of stations on twisty and hilly routes.

    Having finally been promised the transformative "built it and they will come" approach, to pull out now will not be good for the Tories. Especially as - and its absurd to have to post this - they will try and claim they never offered "it" and are building "it" simultaneously.
    It feels bad to me. One of the most obvious of political errors: over-promising then under-delivering. Always do the opposite
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