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The Greens are favourite in tonight’s local election bet – politicalbetting.com
The Greens are favourite in tonight’s local election bet – politicalbetting.com
Smarkets are continuing with their weekly local by-election bets and tonight’s contest is in a ward which I know well and where my wife and I rented a cottage just before the March 2020 lockdown. It is the University and Scotforth ward on Lancaster council.
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12-15 first jabs seem to be stalling in Scotland at around 55%
Thanks for that, looks like the train heads to Thurso first, reverses there and heads to Wick where it terminates.
A question for our legal bods on this site.
I am no Meghan Markle fan, but I do wonder whether the media pundits have got this one right. Reports say that, because Meghan drafted the letter to her father with the possibility of it being leaked in mind, that undermines her claim to 'an expectation of privacy'.
That just does not make sense to me as an argument. I, as a diplomat, drafted many written communications, from internal memos to telegrams to policy documents, that were classified, and hence clearly had an expectation of privacy. But I also wrote them with a view to how I would defend what I had written if it became public. It would be ludicrous to argue that the classification of those documents should be challenged because I wrote them with the possibility of them becoming public in mind. Similarly, on the face of it, it seems ludicrous to argue that Meghan Markle's expectation of privacy should be questioned purely on the basis of her recognition that, despite that expectation, it might be leaked.
What do the lawyers think on this?
The stuff about 'forgetting' asking an aide to pass on info to biography authors (shocking evelation there) may not have helped.
@Conflicts
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BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.
When it's this good, T20 is great great world class sport
Feel for Pakistan tho. So impressive, yet they lost?
Oops.
Besides, it'd probably just be soldiers on holiday again - the Russian military love their vacation days.
If true it has just ramped up a whole lot more
South Korea, Japan and Taiwan will have the Bomb by lunch the next day....
Their site even shows official group whipping policies, which I've never seen on a council website before
https://www.lancaster.gov.uk/the-council-and-democracy/about-the-council/council-structure
Mind you it is good to see you follow my every word
I’m sorry for Pakistan though.
Is any other Council run by the third largest group?
Their progress with 1st and 2nd doses shows they'll do great when it comes to 3rd, I am sure.
Of course, they started later, so applying the same 6-month period that we apply, it's appropriate that the number of triple-jabbed is currently lower than ours. The point is, though, that they are getting on with it, and they are going to enforce it seriously. I fully expect them to get a higher triple-jab rate than us quite quickly.
I believe Scotland is as bad if not worse
I do not have an answer
Tesla's stock valuation is high compared to automobile companies, but its not high compared to eg oil and gas companies. In ten to twenty years time its quite possible that automobiles represent just a fraction of Tesla's revenue stream and if that's the case then they'll be a genuinely sound investment today. Risky but genuinely sound.
Not like Gamestop or NFT's at all.
I presume AUKUS will now come into its own?
How polls have changed since Starmer became leader:
Redfield and Winton 🌹LAB+7, 🌳CON-12
YouGov 🌹Lab+8, 🌳Con-16
Opinium 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-16
Ipsos MORI 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-17
https://twitter.com/AdamRd1989/status/1457780064318222337?t=ahRAljpqCHBAtGgPUQIorQ&s=19
All bar one do put Starmer 20 points ahead of the point before he became leader, and that was 19 points. I am not particularly a fan, but quite some swing.
The only way you can drive up vax rates to 85%+ is with mandatory vaxports everywhere
The truly alarming figures in that FT twitter thread is the German-speaking non vaxed proportion of over 12s.
22-25%!! That's a huge reservoir of potential victims. That's nearly 20 million people in Germany
The authorities need to recalibrate it somehow, if there is a perceived advantage almost every time
https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1458847007058059264?s=20
Ask people where their solar rooves are.
Tesla is behaving abysmally with both of these. In particular, they tried to put up the price of solar roof installations by 30-150% - after contracts had been signed. And told people they could pull out of the contract, but lose their deposit. They only backed down recently, six months later - and after some had paid the new price.
SpaceX is the only part of Musk's empire that could make me believe he isn't a shady sh*t. And that's probably down to Gwynne Shotwell's influence.
And maybe also change the shape of the bat and allow the ball to be thrown to the batter.
I'd really like to find a bet that focussed on the LD/Green race - perhaps "3rd party seatwise"? Would you 1000 on either the Tories or Labour? (Normally probably yes, but currently - not so sure)
I get that you can blame the legacy of communism in East Germany, but you can't do that in Austria or Switzerland
Switzerland is particularly perplexing. The home of so much pharma. The calm, logical land of Rousseau, Paracelsus, Einstein, and Roger Federer. And Le Corbusier. And Nicholas of Flue. And Erich von Daniken
Swtitzerland. 24.4% of over 12s without a single jab
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748644295950344?s=20
Sure, it is comparing the peak Tory polling under Corbyn to now, but quite some swing.
I'm trying to think of if the German people can recall mandatory jabs that happened before communism.
Maybe the authorities haven't told them to, but that too is hard to understand.
But set against that that there have been two rounds of gap-closing, separated by a huge vaccine bounce.
Say what you like about SKS, and his slogan for 2024 may well be "Vote Labour, because they'll have to do", but full marks for doggedness.
Where we do have a massive advantage is that we've allowed Covid to sweep through schools. This means we simply don't have the transmission vector that other countries do.
It's also worth noting that we in the UK count 12 year olds as fully vaxxed after a single dose of Pfizer, while in the rest of Europe and the US, it requires two jabs.
I wonder if they'd get a similar situation if they broke through in another seat, but managing that seems, well, hard doesn't begin to describe it - they did well in Bristol West in 2015 but even in 2019 with the LDs presumably stepping asied (in a seat they won in 2010 with 48% of the vote!) they were 28000 votes behind Labour.
My conversational German has stalled a bit, wouldn't mind a bit of alternative history sorting it out for me.
https://i.imgur.com/ow0w5rM.png
Not too dissimilar. The gap between the dashed and solid blue lines is about 3 weeks.
But life saving vaccines? Nah, fuck that, don't trust the government
Weird
But it is also worth remembering that the EU - first time around - really did get a move on once they had supplies. In their peak week, they got 30 million jabs in arms. That's almost one-in-ten adults.
If they want to, they can certainly get a move on with boosters. And I have no doubt that if things look bad this winter (and they're certainly looking that way in a lot of the continent), then they'll start moving.
Don't forget, at previous rates (and they have the vaccine supply) they *could* get the most vulnerable half of the population done by Christmas.