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The Greens are favourite in tonight’s local election bet – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 11 in General
imageThe Greens are favourite in tonight’s local election bet – politicalbetting.com

Smarkets are continuing with their weekly local by-election bets and tonight’s contest is in a ward which I know well and where my wife and I rented a cottage just before the March 2020 lockdown. It is the University and Scotforth ward on Lancaster council.

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • First like Labour :lol:
  • Labour 295,278,267 votes? Blimey, that's a lot!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,449

    Labour 295,278,267 votes? Blimey, that's a lot!

    They vote early and often in Lancashire,. I see.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    An interesting observation watching the cricket - this crowd is what a mask mandate, backed with £600 fines for non-compliance, looks like when cases are below 100 a day in a population of 10m.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,251
    Looks good for Green. Close last time, opportunity for a protest vote, presumably unlikely to affect control of the Council (?)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    I've seen Greens work really hard for local elections, without much success it has to be said, so I feel inclined to wish them well in an area they are regarded as a decent shot.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Whilst 3rd jabs seem to be going great guns at the moment i am surprised to see 12-15 first jabs in England have still not really picked up the pace at all, and 16-17 is pretty weak as well.

    12-15 first jabs seem to be stalling in Scotland at around 55%
  • Carnyx said:

    Labour 295,278,267 votes? Blimey, that's a lot!

    They vote early and often in Lancashire,. I see.
    FPT

    Thanks for that, looks like the train heads to Thurso first, reverses there and heads to Wick where it terminates.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,707
    FPT

    A question for our legal bods on this site.

    I am no Meghan Markle fan, but I do wonder whether the media pundits have got this one right. Reports say that, because Meghan drafted the letter to her father with the possibility of it being leaked in mind, that undermines her claim to 'an expectation of privacy'.

    That just does not make sense to me as an argument. I, as a diplomat, drafted many written communications, from internal memos to telegrams to policy documents, that were classified, and hence clearly had an expectation of privacy. But I also wrote them with a view to how I would defend what I had written if it became public. It would be ludicrous to argue that the classification of those documents should be challenged because I wrote them with the possibility of them becoming public in mind. Similarly, on the face of it, it seems ludicrous to argue that Meghan Markle's expectation of privacy should be questioned purely on the basis of her recognition that, despite that expectation, it might be leaked.

    What do the lawyers think on this?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    Couple more sixes and it's game on
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    Suddenly it's basically evens again
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    TimT said:

    A question for our legal bods on this site.

    I am no Meghan Markle fan, but I do wonder whether the media pundits have got this one right. Reports say that, because Meghan drafted the letter to her father with the possibility of it being leaked in mind, that undermines her claim to 'an expectation of privacy'.

    That just does not make sense to me as an argument. I, as a diplomat, drafted many written communications, from internal memos to telegrams to policy documents, that were classified, and hence clearly had an expectation of privacy. But I also wrote them with a view to how I would defend what I had written if it became public. It would be ludicrous to argue that the classification of those documents should be challenged because I wrote them with the possibility of them becoming public in mind. Similarly, on the face of it, it seems ludicrous to argue that Meghan Markle's expectation of privacy should be questioned purely on the basis of her recognition that, despite that expectation, it might be leaked.

    What do the lawyers think on this?

    That is an interesting question. Is the key word here 'expectation' not 'leaked'? In your example you were prepared if it was leaked but presumably there was not much expectation they would be, plus it was professional correspondence. If you went in knowing that the person you sent it too, or the people it passed through on the way, had a high chance of leaking, would that matter?

    The stuff about 'forgetting' asking an aide to pass on info to biography authors (shocking evelation there) may not have helped.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    TimT said:

    FPT

    A question for our legal bods on this site.

    I am no Meghan Markle fan, but I do wonder whether the media pundits have got this one right. Reports say that, because Meghan drafted the letter to her father with the possibility of it being leaked in mind, that undermines her claim to 'an expectation of privacy'.

    That just does not make sense to me as an argument. I, as a diplomat, drafted many written communications, from internal memos to telegrams to policy documents, that were classified, and hence clearly had an expectation of privacy. But I also wrote them with a view to how I would defend what I had written if it became public. It would be ludicrous to argue that the classification of those documents should be challenged because I wrote them with the possibility of them becoming public in mind. Similarly, on the face of it, it seems ludicrous to argue that Meghan Markle's expectation of privacy should be questioned purely on the basis of her recognition that, despite that expectation, it might be leaked.

    What do the lawyers think on this?

    Is the bigger issue not, that she has now remembered she was collaborating on a book about herself at the time, therefore has conceded her own right to an expectation of privacy?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    Leon said:

    Couple more sixes and it's game on

    One goes into the crowd, brings up a 50 partnership and it’s back to being close again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704

    Labour 295,278,267 votes? Blimey, that's a lot!

    If Starmer does not match it then he should GTFO, loser.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Couple more sixes and it's game on

    One goes into the crowd, brings up a 50 partnership and it’s back to being close again.
    Brilliantly tight
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    Oz now favourites. Superb drama
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    22 required from the last couple of overs. That should be easy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    Sandpit said:

    22 required from the last couple of overs. That should be easy.

    And yet - one wicket and it's back on for Pakistan
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    11 balls to go. Dead evens. Brilliant
  • Dropped
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,477
    Today’s topic is local by-elections. Just sayin’
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    One big six makes all the difference. Looks easy to get the runs now.
  • IanB2 said:

    Today’s topic is local by-elections. Just sayin’

    More to life than politics
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    omg
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704

    Dropped

    And that's how to lose a game in one ball.
  • What a way to win
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    And all of a sudden, it’s 1.01.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    edited November 11
    18 required from 9 balls, and they didn’t need the last over!
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743
    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    edited November 11
    Incredible


    When it's this good, T20 is great great world class sport

    Feel for Pakistan tho. So impressive, yet they lost?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    eek said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.

    Oh sh!t
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,668
    kle4 said:

    Dropped

    And that's how to lose a game in one ball.
    Drop-6-6-6.

    Oops.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    edited November 11
    eek said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.

    Thanks for the warning, but even if they are who's going to stop them? Some are pretty confident no one would for a NATO country even.

    Besides, it'd probably just be soldiers on holiday again - the Russian military love their vacation days.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,009
    eek said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.

    There goes the neighbourhood...

    image
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,632
    eek said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.

    Is that really as important as the cricket?
  • eek said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.

    I did say earlier that this crisis was serious

    If true it has just ramped up a whole lot more
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,009
    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.

    Thanks for the warning, but even if they are who's going to stop them? Some are pretty confident no one would for a NATO country even.

    Besides, it'd probably just be soldiers on holiday again - the Russian military love their vacation days.
    If Russia takes another chunk of the Ukraine, then goodbye to nuclear disarmament for the next thousand years. Give or take.

    South Korea, Japan and Taiwan will have the Bomb by lunch the next day....
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,624
    Ukraine is not yet dead
  • IanB2 said:

    Today’s topic is local by-elections. Just sayin’

    This is a LOCAL election for LOCAL people! There's nothing for YOU here!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    eek said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.

    Wonder how that will affect the University and Scotforth by-election?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    Leon said:

    Incredible


    When it's this good, T20 is great great world class sport

    Feel for Pakistan tho. So impressive, yet they lost?

    Have a feeling that the best 2 teams lost their semis.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Incredible


    When it's this good, T20 is great great world class sport

    Feel for Pakistan tho. So impressive, yet they lost?

    Have a feeling that the best 2 teams lost their semis.
    Yes, both group winners deserved to be in the final but both lost in the semis. Going to be a very late night in the Southern Hemisphere on Sunday.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    eek said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.

    I did say earlier that this crisis was serious

    If true it has just ramped up a whole lot more
    You, in recent weeks:
    "the threat is China not Russia"
    "is anyone confident that NATO is relevant"
    "I agree that Putin is not a threat"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    edited November 11
    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.

    Is that really as important as the cricket?
    Or Lancaster City Council more to the point - turns out it is a surprisingly diverse council. 14 Lab, 11 Con, 10 Green, 9 Morcombe Bay Independents, 5 Ind, 4 Eco-socialist independents, 2 LD, 1 non-aligned (listed as Independent Independent, which is fantastic) and 4 vacant seats (which is really weird). 4 different sets of independents, I love it.

    Their site even shows official group whipping policies, which I've never seen on a council website before
    https://www.lancaster.gov.uk/the-council-and-democracy/about-the-council/council-structure
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,748
    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    Has nobody spotted that yesterday had the highest number of first doses of Vaccine since July.

    (And highest number of second doses since Sept).

    I did. But I was told it is "data catch up" by Max, who normally knows his Covid onions
    It's still good because what we thought were poor numbers was just an underreporting error. The booster shots look positively smashing at the moment. Should hit 3m per week next week.
    I read that the Netherlands (I think) has only just started boostering over 80s. Madness
    Europe hasn't really learned from out failures at all. I read that they aren't planning to start over 60s boosters until Jan 2020, it's not as though they don't have the supply either. Europe is sitting on something like 200m Pfizer doses for it's booster programme.
    Hmm.. you're making the classic mistake of thinking that 'Europe' acts as though it were a single country. Ireland, France, Denmark, and Spain are far ahead of the UK in jab take-up despite the botched start, and France in particular is going great guns on the boosters. On the other hand, Germany, Switzerland and Austria are still miles behind the UK, and it's beginning to show in their deaths and hospitalisation figures. Further east it's disastrous.

    The Netherlands is about the same as us in total take up, and you can see the protection in the figures. Like us, though, they've got too many cases for comfort:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748635609550848
    France is not "going great guns on the boosters". They're only able to bring in the vaccine pass requirement for over 65s from December 15th - more than a month away. They are seriously behind the UK.

    image
  • Farooq said:

    eek said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.

    I did say earlier that this crisis was serious

    If true it has just ramped up a whole lot more
    You, in recent weeks:
    "the threat is China not Russia"
    "is anyone confident that NATO is relevant"
    "I agree that Putin is not a threat"
    That was then

    Mind you it is good to see you follow my every word
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,356
    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.

    Is that really as important as the cricket?
    No. Both Guardian and BBC websites are leading with parochial news for Yorkshire CCC. Outbreak of WW3 on p.27.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,144
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Incredible


    When it's this good, T20 is great great world class sport

    Feel for Pakistan tho. So impressive, yet they lost?

    Have a feeling that the best 2 teams lost their semis.
    The Kiwi’s were always going to be there or thereabouts and the Aussies can never be written off.
    I’m sorry for Pakistan though.

  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    Farooq said:

    eek said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.

    I did say earlier that this crisis was serious

    If true it has just ramped up a whole lot more
    You, in recent weeks:
    "the threat is China not Russia"
    "is anyone confident that NATO is relevant"
    "I agree that Putin is not a threat"
    That was then

    Mind you it is good to see you follow my every word
    Do you see now that you were being naive then?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,944

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    Has nobody spotted that yesterday had the highest number of first doses of Vaccine since July.

    (And highest number of second doses since Sept).

    I did. But I was told it is "data catch up" by Max, who normally knows his Covid onions
    It's still good because what we thought were poor numbers was just an underreporting error. The booster shots look positively smashing at the moment. Should hit 3m per week next week.
    I read that the Netherlands (I think) has only just started boostering over 80s. Madness
    Europe hasn't really learned from out failures at all. I read that they aren't planning to start over 60s boosters until Jan 2020, it's not as though they don't have the supply either. Europe is sitting on something like 200m Pfizer doses for it's booster programme.
    Hmm.. you're making the classic mistake of thinking that 'Europe' acts as though it were a single country. Ireland, France, Denmark, and Spain are far ahead of the UK in jab take-up despite the botched start, and France in particular is going great guns on the boosters. On the other hand, Germany, Switzerland and Austria are still miles behind the UK, and it's beginning to show in their deaths and hospitalisation figures. Further east it's disastrous.

    The Netherlands is about the same as us in total take up, and you can see the protection in the figures. Like us, though, they've got too many cases for comfort:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748635609550848
    France is not "going great guns on the boosters". They're only able to bring in the vaccine pass requirement for over 65s from December 15th - more than a month away. They are seriously behind the UK.

    image
    Surely that's just because France, like the rest of the EU, was a couple of months behind us from the start of the vaccination programme, so the boosters will also be a couple of months behind us?
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    eek said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.

    I did say earlier that this crisis was serious

    If true it has just ramped up a whole lot more
    You, in recent weeks:
    "the threat is China not Russia"
    "is anyone confident that NATO is relevant"
    "I agree that Putin is not a threat"
    That was then

    Mind you it is good to see you follow my every word
    Do you see now that you were being naive then?
    At my age I am not naive I can assure you
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.

    Is that really as important as the cricket?
    Or Lancaster City Council more to the point - turns out it is a surprisingly diverse council. 14 Lab, 11 Con, 10 Green, 9 Morcombe Bay Independents, 5 Ind, 4 Eco-socialist independents, 2 LD, 1 non-aligned (listed as Independent Independent, which is fantastic) and 4 vacant seats (which is really weird). 4 different sets of independents, I love it.

    Their site even shows official group whipping policies, which I've never seen on a council website before
    https://www.lancaster.gov.uk/the-council-and-democracy/about-the-council/council-structure
    Is a Green/Independent run Council too. Doesn’t make clear which Indies though. I presume all of them?
    Is any other Council run by the third largest group?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    Has nobody spotted that yesterday had the highest number of first doses of Vaccine since July.

    (And highest number of second doses since Sept).

    I did. But I was told it is "data catch up" by Max, who normally knows his Covid onions
    It's still good because what we thought were poor numbers was just an underreporting error. The booster shots look positively smashing at the moment. Should hit 3m per week next week.
    I read that the Netherlands (I think) has only just started boostering over 80s. Madness
    Europe hasn't really learned from out failures at all. I read that they aren't planning to start over 60s boosters until Jan 2020, it's not as though they don't have the supply either. Europe is sitting on something like 200m Pfizer doses for it's booster programme.
    Hmm.. you're making the classic mistake of thinking that 'Europe' acts as though it were a single country. Ireland, France, Denmark, and Spain are far ahead of the UK in jab take-up despite the botched start, and France in particular is going great guns on the boosters. On the other hand, Germany, Switzerland and Austria are still miles behind the UK, and it's beginning to show in their deaths and hospitalisation figures. Further east it's disastrous.

    The Netherlands is about the same as us in total take up, and you can see the protection in the figures. Like us, though, they've got too many cases for comfort:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748635609550848
    France is not "going great guns on the boosters". They're only able to bring in the vaccine pass requirement for over 65s from December 15th - more than a month away. They are seriously behind the UK.

    image
    Surely that's just because France, like the rest of the EU, was a couple of months behind us from the start of the vaccination programme, so the boosters will also be a couple of months behind us?
    I'd have thought that was william's point as well - that they may well be going 'great guns' on boosters at that point, but are not now, which was the claim.

    Their progress with 1st and 2nd doses shows they'll do great when it comes to 3rd, I am sure.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,632

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    Has nobody spotted that yesterday had the highest number of first doses of Vaccine since July.

    (And highest number of second doses since Sept).

    I did. But I was told it is "data catch up" by Max, who normally knows his Covid onions
    It's still good because what we thought were poor numbers was just an underreporting error. The booster shots look positively smashing at the moment. Should hit 3m per week next week.
    I read that the Netherlands (I think) has only just started boostering over 80s. Madness
    Europe hasn't really learned from out failures at all. I read that they aren't planning to start over 60s boosters until Jan 2020, it's not as though they don't have the supply either. Europe is sitting on something like 200m Pfizer doses for it's booster programme.
    Hmm.. you're making the classic mistake of thinking that 'Europe' acts as though it were a single country. Ireland, France, Denmark, and Spain are far ahead of the UK in jab take-up despite the botched start, and France in particular is going great guns on the boosters. On the other hand, Germany, Switzerland and Austria are still miles behind the UK, and it's beginning to show in their deaths and hospitalisation figures. Further east it's disastrous.

    The Netherlands is about the same as us in total take up, and you can see the protection in the figures. Like us, though, they've got too many cases for comfort:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748635609550848
    France is not "going great guns on the boosters". They're only able to bring in the vaccine pass requirement for over 65s from December 15th - more than a month away. They are seriously behind the UK.

    image
    Surely that's just because France, like the rest of the EU, was a couple of months behind us from the start of the vaccination programme, so the boosters will also be a couple of months behind us?
    They were initially higher. If it was simply down to a delayed start, the curve would be the same as the UK's, just shifted.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,144

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    Has nobody spotted that yesterday had the highest number of first doses of Vaccine since July.

    (And highest number of second doses since Sept).

    I did. But I was told it is "data catch up" by Max, who normally knows his Covid onions
    It's still good because what we thought were poor numbers was just an underreporting error. The booster shots look positively smashing at the moment. Should hit 3m per week next week.
    I read that the Netherlands (I think) has only just started boostering over 80s. Madness
    Europe hasn't really learned from out failures at all. I read that they aren't planning to start over 60s boosters until Jan 2020, it's not as though they don't have the supply either. Europe is sitting on something like 200m Pfizer doses for it's booster programme.
    Hmm.. you're making the classic mistake of thinking that 'Europe' acts as though it were a single country. Ireland, France, Denmark, and Spain are far ahead of the UK in jab take-up despite the botched start, and France in particular is going great guns on the boosters. On the other hand, Germany, Switzerland and Austria are still miles behind the UK, and it's beginning to show in their deaths and hospitalisation figures. Further east it's disastrous.

    The Netherlands is about the same as us in total take up, and you can see the protection in the figures. Like us, though, they've got too many cases for comfort:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748635609550848
    France is not "going great guns on the boosters". They're only able to bring in the vaccine pass requirement for over 65s from December 15th - more than a month away. They are seriously behind the UK.

    image
    They most certainly are not miles behind the UK. We have 13.6% of over-12s completely unvaxxed (i.e. not even the first dose), they are on 8.4%.

    Of course, they started later, so applying the same 6-month period that we apply, it's appropriate that the number of triple-jabbed is currently lower than ours. The point is, though, that they are getting on with it, and they are going to enforce it seriously. I fully expect them to get a higher triple-jab rate than us quite quickly.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,748

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    Has nobody spotted that yesterday had the highest number of first doses of Vaccine since July.

    (And highest number of second doses since Sept).

    I did. But I was told it is "data catch up" by Max, who normally knows his Covid onions
    It's still good because what we thought were poor numbers was just an underreporting error. The booster shots look positively smashing at the moment. Should hit 3m per week next week.
    I read that the Netherlands (I think) has only just started boostering over 80s. Madness
    Europe hasn't really learned from out failures at all. I read that they aren't planning to start over 60s boosters until Jan 2020, it's not as though they don't have the supply either. Europe is sitting on something like 200m Pfizer doses for it's booster programme.
    Hmm.. you're making the classic mistake of thinking that 'Europe' acts as though it were a single country. Ireland, France, Denmark, and Spain are far ahead of the UK in jab take-up despite the botched start, and France in particular is going great guns on the boosters. On the other hand, Germany, Switzerland and Austria are still miles behind the UK, and it's beginning to show in their deaths and hospitalisation figures. Further east it's disastrous.

    The Netherlands is about the same as us in total take up, and you can see the protection in the figures. Like us, though, they've got too many cases for comfort:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748635609550848
    France is not "going great guns on the boosters". They're only able to bring in the vaccine pass requirement for over 65s from December 15th - more than a month away. They are seriously behind the UK.

    image
    Surely that's just because France, like the rest of the EU, was a couple of months behind us from the start of the vaccination programme, so the boosters will also be a couple of months behind us?
    I don't think that argument stands up. The EU had vaccinated 20% of people by April, so if you take a six month window as a guideline for boosters, there's no reason for them to be lagging.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,224
    edited November 11
    BBC news report on NHS ambulance crisis re England and ITV Wales are reporting on the serious state of Wales NHS ambulance crisis and a patient attacking the Welsh Government

    I believe Scotland is as bad if not worse

    I do not have an answer
  • Sandpit said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Bugger, I'm in London for a city break at the end of the month and planned to use Uber Lux a lot. #CostOfLivingCrisis

    Uber is raising prices in London amid surging demand and a shortfall of drivers.

    Fares will climb by 10pc in the capital and by up to 25pc for airport journeys, the taxi company said. Journeys outside London will not be affected.

    Users have complained of long wait times and drivers cancelling journeys, with the minicab app struggling to get enough drivers on the road to meet demand.

    Even before the price rise, fares had surged due to Uber’s surge pricing algorithm, which pushes up prices to match demand for rides with supply.

    Some users have reported journeys regularly costing more than a black cab ride. The company said the change would make this less frequent.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/11/11/uber-raises-prices-amid-surging-demand-rides/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1636641883

    Uber tried to charge me £20 to get from St Pancras to Camden the other day. The model is broken
    The model isn't broken - the issue is they no longer have an endless supply of workers and it's likely that Amazon parcel delivery pays better.
    But that's part of the model. It assumed an infinite supply of fairly cheap labour
    Nope, Uber's model is based on no labour - the cars were supposed to be self driving by about now...
    That's not true.

    Uber is just a radio cab service, with the radios replaced by a mobile app. They absolutely don't want a self driving world because then they have to supply the vehicles.
    Except that they will tell you they’re defininitely not a cab service.

    Oh, and how does a cab service, or a not-a-cab-service, continue to lose $2bn a quarter?
    TSLA, NFTs, Shiba-inu, Uber it's all a giant game of pass the inflating bomb.
    I wouldn't put Tesla in with the rest of them.

    Tesla are legitimately an extremely profitable company with a very bright future.
    Can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not - But Tesla is definatly in the Meme Stock box.
    It is but its also an extremely profitable business unlike almost all the other Meme Stocks which are just bad jokes with nothing valuable behind it.

    There's more than just automobiles in Tesla. Their power storage facility side business has a potential to be storing then supplying a considerable proportion of the world's energy in the future so its worth comparing Tesla to energy businesses not just automobile ones.
    Yes, but there’s also a pretty good chance they end up as the MySpace of electric technology, the early success story overwhelmed by the rate of innovation in the sector.
    I completely agree with that, but there's also a pretty good chance they'll end up as the Facebook or Google of electric technology - and given Musk's track record I suspect actually Tesla will be around even after Facebook.

    Tesla's stock valuation is high compared to automobile companies, but its not high compared to eg oil and gas companies. In ten to twenty years time its quite possible that automobiles represent just a fraction of Tesla's revenue stream and if that's the case then they'll be a genuinely sound investment today. Risky but genuinely sound.

    Not like Gamestop or NFT's at all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    eek said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.

    I did say earlier that this crisis was serious

    If true it has just ramped up a whole lot more
    You, in recent weeks:
    "the threat is China not Russia"
    "is anyone confident that NATO is relevant"
    "I agree that Putin is not a threat"
    That was then

    Mind you it is good to see you follow my every word
    Do you see now that you were being naive then?
    At my age I am not naive I can assure you
    Regardless of your personal naivete, or lack thereof, it is not a characteristic that comes automatically with age. Like wisdom, naivete can be found at all ages.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    If this has any truth in it, the situation on the Poland/Belarus border is a classic feint. Sow discord amongst your enemies first. Doesn’t seem to have worked.
    I presume AUKUS will now come into its own?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,176

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    eek said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.

    I did say earlier that this crisis was serious

    If true it has just ramped up a whole lot more
    You, in recent weeks:
    "the threat is China not Russia"
    "is anyone confident that NATO is relevant"
    "I agree that Putin is not a threat"
    That was then

    Mind you it is good to see you follow my every word
    Do you see now that you were being naive then?
    At my age I am not naive I can assure you
    You seem to have been a bit naive about a BJ-led Tory party..
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    kle4 said:

    Labour 295,278,267 votes? Blimey, that's a lot!

    If Starmer does not match it then he should GTFO, loser.
    Some interesting polls on this recently:

    How polls have changed since Starmer became leader:

    Redfield and Winton 🌹LAB+7, 🌳CON-12
    YouGov 🌹Lab+8, 🌳Con-16
    Opinium 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-16
    Ipsos MORI 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-17

    https://twitter.com/AdamRd1989/status/1457780064318222337?t=ahRAljpqCHBAtGgPUQIorQ&s=19

    All bar one do put Starmer 20 points ahead of the point before he became leader, and that was 19 points. I am not particularly a fan, but quite some swing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    Has nobody spotted that yesterday had the highest number of first doses of Vaccine since July.

    (And highest number of second doses since Sept).

    I did. But I was told it is "data catch up" by Max, who normally knows his Covid onions
    It's still good because what we thought were poor numbers was just an underreporting error. The booster shots look positively smashing at the moment. Should hit 3m per week next week.
    I read that the Netherlands (I think) has only just started boostering over 80s. Madness
    Europe hasn't really learned from out failures at all. I read that they aren't planning to start over 60s boosters until Jan 2020, it's not as though they don't have the supply either. Europe is sitting on something like 200m Pfizer doses for it's booster programme.
    Hmm.. you're making the classic mistake of thinking that 'Europe' acts as though it were a single country. Ireland, France, Denmark, and Spain are far ahead of the UK in jab take-up despite the botched start, and France in particular is going great guns on the boosters. On the other hand, Germany, Switzerland and Austria are still miles behind the UK, and it's beginning to show in their deaths and hospitalisation figures. Further east it's disastrous.

    The Netherlands is about the same as us in total take up, and you can see the protection in the figures. Like us, though, they've got too many cases for comfort:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748635609550848
    France is not "going great guns on the boosters". They're only able to bring in the vaccine pass requirement for over 65s from December 15th - more than a month away. They are seriously behind the UK.

    image
    They most certainly are not miles behind the UK. We have 13.6% of over-12s completely unvaxxed (i.e. not even the first dose), they are on 8.4%.

    Of course, they started later, so applying the same 6-month period that we apply, it's appropriate that the number of triple-jabbed is currently lower than ours. The point is, though, that they are getting on with it, and they are going to enforce it seriously. I fully expect them to get a higher triple-jab rate than us quite quickly.
    That sounds correct, but then why say France is going great on the boosters, rather than they will given their good job so far?
  • FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    Has nobody spotted that yesterday had the highest number of first doses of Vaccine since July.

    (And highest number of second doses since Sept).

    I did. But I was told it is "data catch up" by Max, who normally knows his Covid onions
    It's still good because what we thought were poor numbers was just an underreporting error. The booster shots look positively smashing at the moment. Should hit 3m per week next week.
    I read that the Netherlands (I think) has only just started boostering over 80s. Madness
    Europe hasn't really learned from out failures at all. I read that they aren't planning to start over 60s boosters until Jan 2020, it's not as though they don't have the supply either. Europe is sitting on something like 200m Pfizer doses for it's booster programme.
    Hmm.. you're making the classic mistake of thinking that 'Europe' acts as though it were a single country. Ireland, France, Denmark, and Spain are far ahead of the UK in jab take-up despite the botched start, and France in particular is going great guns on the boosters. On the other hand, Germany, Switzerland and Austria are still miles behind the UK, and it's beginning to show in their deaths and hospitalisation figures. Further east it's disastrous.

    The Netherlands is about the same as us in total take up, and you can see the protection in the figures. Like us, though, they've got too many cases for comfort:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748635609550848
    France is not "going great guns on the boosters". They're only able to bring in the vaccine pass requirement for over 65s from December 15th - more than a month away. They are seriously behind the UK.

    image
    Surely that's just because France, like the rest of the EU, was a couple of months behind us from the start of the vaccination programme, so the boosters will also be a couple of months behind us?
    I don't think that argument stands up. The EU had vaccinated 20% of people by April, so if you take a six month window as a guideline for boosters, there's no reason for them to be lagging.
    Those saying that the EU lagged behind Britain forget that Europe concentrated on double-jabs first, while the UK single-jabbed as many as possible first. So six months past the second jab actually comes earlier in the first few percentage in Europe than it does in the UK since the second jab was deliberately delayed here.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    edited November 11

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    Has nobody spotted that yesterday had the highest number of first doses of Vaccine since July.

    (And highest number of second doses since Sept).

    I did. But I was told it is "data catch up" by Max, who normally knows his Covid onions
    It's still good because what we thought were poor numbers was just an underreporting error. The booster shots look positively smashing at the moment. Should hit 3m per week next week.
    I read that the Netherlands (I think) has only just started boostering over 80s. Madness
    Europe hasn't really learned from out failures at all. I read that they aren't planning to start over 60s boosters until Jan 2020, it's not as though they don't have the supply either. Europe is sitting on something like 200m Pfizer doses for it's booster programme.
    Hmm.. you're making the classic mistake of thinking that 'Europe' acts as though it were a single country. Ireland, France, Denmark, and Spain are far ahead of the UK in jab take-up despite the botched start, and France in particular is going great guns on the boosters. On the other hand, Germany, Switzerland and Austria are still miles behind the UK, and it's beginning to show in their deaths and hospitalisation figures. Further east it's disastrous.

    The Netherlands is about the same as us in total take up, and you can see the protection in the figures. Like us, though, they've got too many cases for comfort:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748635609550848
    France is not "going great guns on the boosters". They're only able to bring in the vaccine pass requirement for over 65s from December 15th - more than a month away. They are seriously behind the UK.

    image
    They most certainly are not miles behind the UK. We have 13.6% of over-12s completely unvaxxed (i.e. not even the first dose), they are on 8.4%.

    Of course, they started later, so applying the same 6-month period that we apply, it's appropriate that the number of triple-jabbed is currently lower than ours. The point is, though, that they are getting on with it, and they are going to enforce it seriously. I fully expect them to get a higher triple-jab rate than us quite quickly.
    They've done better in absolute total jabs because they have introduced rigorous, universal vaxports. I regret that the UK did not do the same, but it was an economic and libertarian choice, that we consciously made - supported by many on here

    The only way you can drive up vax rates to 85%+ is with mandatory vaxports everywhere

    The truly alarming figures in that FT twitter thread is the German-speaking non vaxed proportion of over 12s.

    22-25%!! That's a huge reservoir of potential victims. That's nearly 20 million people in Germany
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    eek said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.

    I did say earlier that this crisis was serious

    If true it has just ramped up a whole lot more
    You, in recent weeks:
    "the threat is China not Russia"
    "is anyone confident that NATO is relevant"
    "I agree that Putin is not a threat"
    That was then

    Mind you it is good to see you follow my every word
    Do you see now that you were being naive then?
    At my age I am not naive I can assure you
    Regardless of your personal naivete, or lack thereof, it is not a characteristic that comes automatically with age. Like wisdom, naivete can be found at all ages.
    I wouldn't even describe a person as naive on the whole. You can be shrewd in one area and naive in another. When it comes to foreign policy though, seeing someone write that Putin isn't a threat was memorable.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    Has nobody spotted that yesterday had the highest number of first doses of Vaccine since July.

    (And highest number of second doses since Sept).

    I did. But I was told it is "data catch up" by Max, who normally knows his Covid onions
    It's still good because what we thought were poor numbers was just an underreporting error. The booster shots look positively smashing at the moment. Should hit 3m per week next week.
    I read that the Netherlands (I think) has only just started boostering over 80s. Madness
    Europe hasn't really learned from out failures at all. I read that they aren't planning to start over 60s boosters until Jan 2020, it's not as though they don't have the supply either. Europe is sitting on something like 200m Pfizer doses for it's booster programme.
    Hmm.. you're making the classic mistake of thinking that 'Europe' acts as though it were a single country. Ireland, France, Denmark, and Spain are far ahead of the UK in jab take-up despite the botched start, and France in particular is going great guns on the boosters. On the other hand, Germany, Switzerland and Austria are still miles behind the UK, and it's beginning to show in their deaths and hospitalisation figures. Further east it's disastrous.

    The Netherlands is about the same as us in total take up, and you can see the protection in the figures. Like us, though, they've got too many cases for comfort:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748635609550848
    France is not "going great guns on the boosters". They're only able to bring in the vaccine pass requirement for over 65s from December 15th - more than a month away. They are seriously behind the UK.

    image
    Surely that's just because France, like the rest of the EU, was a couple of months behind us from the start of the vaccination programme, so the boosters will also be a couple of months behind us?
    Yes, what do the numbers look like when re-based that way?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,476
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Incredible


    When it's this good, T20 is great great world class sport

    Feel for Pakistan tho. So impressive, yet they lost?

    Have a feeling that the best 2 teams lost their semis.
    Both batting first. Toss too important here.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,144
    kle4 said:



    That sounds correct, but then why say France is going great on the boosters, rather than they will given their good job so far?

    Fair point. I will concede that!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Incredible


    When it's this good, T20 is great great world class sport

    Feel for Pakistan tho. So impressive, yet they lost?

    Have a feeling that the best 2 teams lost their semis.
    Both batting first. Toss too important here.
    Yes. It is definitely easier to run chase

    The authorities need to recalibrate it somehow, if there is a perceived advantage almost every time
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Incredible


    When it's this good, T20 is great great world class sport

    Feel for Pakistan tho. So impressive, yet they lost?

    Have a feeling that the best 2 teams lost their semis.
    Both batting first. Toss too important here.
    Wouldn't a decent reward for winning the group be automatic toss win?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    The Queen will attend the Remembrance Service at the Cenotaph on Sunday, watching from the Foreign Office balcony

    https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1458847007058059264?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704

    kle4 said:



    That sounds correct, but then why say France is going great on the boosters, rather than they will given their good job so far?

    Fair point. I will concede that!
    In fairness I don't think a casual miswording destroys the main point - many European nations were slow off the mark, and that remains a valid point, but have as one would expect had very good programmes rolled out since then. Identifying those which have stalled more than others is key.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,158

    Sandpit said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Bugger, I'm in London for a city break at the end of the month and planned to use Uber Lux a lot. #CostOfLivingCrisis

    Uber is raising prices in London amid surging demand and a shortfall of drivers.

    Fares will climb by 10pc in the capital and by up to 25pc for airport journeys, the taxi company said. Journeys outside London will not be affected.

    Users have complained of long wait times and drivers cancelling journeys, with the minicab app struggling to get enough drivers on the road to meet demand.

    Even before the price rise, fares had surged due to Uber’s surge pricing algorithm, which pushes up prices to match demand for rides with supply.

    Some users have reported journeys regularly costing more than a black cab ride. The company said the change would make this less frequent.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/11/11/uber-raises-prices-amid-surging-demand-rides/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1636641883

    Uber tried to charge me £20 to get from St Pancras to Camden the other day. The model is broken
    The model isn't broken - the issue is they no longer have an endless supply of workers and it's likely that Amazon parcel delivery pays better.
    But that's part of the model. It assumed an infinite supply of fairly cheap labour
    Nope, Uber's model is based on no labour - the cars were supposed to be self driving by about now...
    That's not true.

    Uber is just a radio cab service, with the radios replaced by a mobile app. They absolutely don't want a self driving world because then they have to supply the vehicles.
    Except that they will tell you they’re defininitely not a cab service.

    Oh, and how does a cab service, or a not-a-cab-service, continue to lose $2bn a quarter?
    TSLA, NFTs, Shiba-inu, Uber it's all a giant game of pass the inflating bomb.
    I wouldn't put Tesla in with the rest of them.

    Tesla are legitimately an extremely profitable company with a very bright future.
    Can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not - But Tesla is definatly in the Meme Stock box.
    It is but its also an extremely profitable business unlike almost all the other Meme Stocks which are just bad jokes with nothing valuable behind it.

    There's more than just automobiles in Tesla. Their power storage facility side business has a potential to be storing then supplying a considerable proportion of the world's energy in the future so its worth comparing Tesla to energy businesses not just automobile ones.
    Yes, but there’s also a pretty good chance they end up as the MySpace of electric technology, the early success story overwhelmed by the rate of innovation in the sector.
    I completely agree with that, but there's also a pretty good chance they'll end up as the Facebook or Google of electric technology - and given Musk's track record I suspect actually Tesla will be around even after Facebook.

    Tesla's stock valuation is high compared to automobile companies, but its not high compared to eg oil and gas companies. In ten to twenty years time its quite possible that automobiles represent just a fraction of Tesla's revenue stream and if that's the case then they'll be a genuinely sound investment today. Risky but genuinely sound.

    Not like Gamestop or NFT's at all.
    Ask people where their 'full self-driving' cars are.
    Ask people where their solar rooves are.

    Tesla is behaving abysmally with both of these. In particular, they tried to put up the price of solar roof installations by 30-150% - after contracts had been signed. And told people they could pull out of the contract, but lose their deposit. They only backed down recently, six months later - and after some had paid the new price.

    SpaceX is the only part of Musk's empire that could make me believe he isn't a shady sh*t. And that's probably down to Gwynne Shotwell's influence.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,144
    Leon said:


    They've done better in absolute total jabs because they have introduced rigorous, universal vaxports. I regret that the UK did not do the same, but it was an economic and libertarian choice, that we consciously made - supported by many on here

    The only way you can drive up vax rates to 85%+ is with mandatory vaxports everywhere

    The truly alarming figures in that FT twitter thread is the German-speaking non vaxed proportion of over 12s.

    25%!! That's a huge reservoir of potential victims. That's nearly 20 million people in Germany

    Yes, Germany is not in a good place, and it gets much worse as you go further east. Probably not helped by some of the German official idiocy in the early spats over AZ.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    HYUFD said:

    The Queen will attend the Remembrance Service at the Cenotaph on Sunday, watching from the Foreign Office balcony

    https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1458847007058059264?s=20

    Her TV must be on the fritz.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,944
    edited November 11
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour 295,278,267 votes? Blimey, that's a lot!

    If Starmer does not match it then he should GTFO, loser.
    Some interesting polls on this recently:

    How polls have changed since Starmer became leader:

    Redfield and Winton 🌹LAB+7, 🌳CON-12
    YouGov 🌹Lab+8, 🌳Con-16
    Opinium 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-16
    Ipsos MORI 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-17

    https://twitter.com/AdamRd1989/status/1457780064318222337?t=ahRAljpqCHBAtGgPUQIorQ&s=19

    All bar one do put Starmer 20 points ahead of the point before he became leader, and that was 19 points. I am not particularly a fan, but quite some swing.
    That looks fabulous. However, it's a bit misleading as when Starmer was elected the Tories were at their peak, with their popularity soaring in sympathy with Boris's bout of Covid. If I recall correctly.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Incredible


    When it's this good, T20 is great great world class sport

    Feel for Pakistan tho. So impressive, yet they lost?

    Have a feeling that the best 2 teams lost their semis.
    Both batting first. Toss too important here.
    Yes. It is definitely easier to run chase

    The authorities need to recalibrate it somehow, if there is a perceived advantage almost every time
    You know, the could alternate between the sides batting and fielding.

    And maybe also change the shape of the bat and allow the ball to be thrown to the batter.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,438
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour 295,278,267 votes? Blimey, that's a lot!

    If Starmer does not match it then he should GTFO, loser.
    Some interesting polls on this recently:

    How polls have changed since Starmer became leader:

    Redfield and Winton 🌹LAB+7, 🌳CON-12
    YouGov 🌹Lab+8, 🌳Con-16
    Opinium 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-16
    Ipsos MORI 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-17

    https://twitter.com/AdamRd1989/status/1457780064318222337?t=ahRAljpqCHBAtGgPUQIorQ&s=19

    All bar one do put Starmer 20 points ahead of the point before he became leader, and that was 19 points. I am not particularly a fan, but quite some swing.
    I've recently backed Starmer to be next PM in a modest way. 5ish BF. If anything though he's been drifting.I don't really get why as surely Boris is in more trouble than he's ever been. Is there some view that Labour would use the opportunity of any Tory leadership change to switch too?

    I'd really like to find a bet that focussed on the LD/Green race - perhaps "3rd party seatwise"? Would you 1000 on either the Tories or Labour? (Normally probably yes, but currently - not so sure)


  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,438
    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour 295,278,267 votes? Blimey, that's a lot!

    If Starmer does not match it then he should GTFO, loser.
    Some interesting polls on this recently:

    How polls have changed since Starmer became leader:

    Redfield and Winton 🌹LAB+7, 🌳CON-12
    YouGov 🌹Lab+8, 🌳Con-16
    Opinium 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-16
    Ipsos MORI 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-17

    https://twitter.com/AdamRd1989/status/1457780064318222337?t=ahRAljpqCHBAtGgPUQIorQ&s=19

    All bar one do put Starmer 20 points ahead of the point before he became leader, and that was 19 points. I am not particularly a fan, but quite some swing.
    I've recently backed Starmer to be next PM in a modest way. 5ish BF. If anything though he's been drifting.I don't really get why as surely Boris is in more trouble than he's ever been. Is there some view that Labour would use the opportunity of any Tory leadership change to switch too?

    I'd really like to find a bet that focussed on the LD/Green race - perhaps "3rd party seatwise"? Would you 1000 on either the Tories or Labour? (Normally probably yes, but currently - not so sure)


    SNP excluded obviously.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour 295,278,267 votes? Blimey, that's a lot!

    If Starmer does not match it then he should GTFO, loser.
    Some interesting polls on this recently:

    How polls have changed since Starmer became leader:

    Redfield and Winton 🌹LAB+7, 🌳CON-12
    YouGov 🌹Lab+8, 🌳Con-16
    Opinium 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-16
    Ipsos MORI 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-17

    https://twitter.com/AdamRd1989/status/1457780064318222337?t=ahRAljpqCHBAtGgPUQIorQ&s=19

    All bar one do put Starmer 20 points ahead of the point before he became leader, and that was 19 points. I am not particularly a fan, but quite some swing.
    I've recently backed Starmer to be next PM in a modest way. 5ish BF. If anything though he's been drifting.I don't really get why as surely Boris is in more trouble than he's ever been. Is there some view that Labour would use the opportunity of any Tory leadership change to switch too?

    I'd really like to find a bet that focussed on the LD/Green race - perhaps "3rd party seatwise"? Would you 1000 on either the Tories or Labour? (Normally probably yes, but currently - not so sure)


    I think Ladbrokes has a market on which of the LDs/Greens get more votes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,748
    Leon said:

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    Has nobody spotted that yesterday had the highest number of first doses of Vaccine since July.

    (And highest number of second doses since Sept).

    I did. But I was told it is "data catch up" by Max, who normally knows his Covid onions
    It's still good because what we thought were poor numbers was just an underreporting error. The booster shots look positively smashing at the moment. Should hit 3m per week next week.
    I read that the Netherlands (I think) has only just started boostering over 80s. Madness
    Europe hasn't really learned from out failures at all. I read that they aren't planning to start over 60s boosters until Jan 2020, it's not as though they don't have the supply either. Europe is sitting on something like 200m Pfizer doses for it's booster programme.
    Hmm.. you're making the classic mistake of thinking that 'Europe' acts as though it were a single country. Ireland, France, Denmark, and Spain are far ahead of the UK in jab take-up despite the botched start, and France in particular is going great guns on the boosters. On the other hand, Germany, Switzerland and Austria are still miles behind the UK, and it's beginning to show in their deaths and hospitalisation figures. Further east it's disastrous.

    The Netherlands is about the same as us in total take up, and you can see the protection in the figures. Like us, though, they've got too many cases for comfort:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748635609550848
    France is not "going great guns on the boosters". They're only able to bring in the vaccine pass requirement for over 65s from December 15th - more than a month away. They are seriously behind the UK.

    image
    They most certainly are not miles behind the UK. We have 13.6% of over-12s completely unvaxxed (i.e. not even the first dose), they are on 8.4%.

    Of course, they started later, so applying the same 6-month period that we apply, it's appropriate that the number of triple-jabbed is currently lower than ours. The point is, though, that they are getting on with it, and they are going to enforce it seriously. I fully expect them to get a higher triple-jab rate than us quite quickly.
    They've done better in absolute total jabs because they have introduced rigorous, universal vaxports. I regret that the UK did not do the same, but it was an economic and libertarian choice, that we consciously made - supported by many on here

    The only way you can drive up vax rates to 85%+ is with mandatory vaxports everywhere

    The truly alarming figures in that FT twitter thread is the German-speaking non vaxed proportion of over 12s.

    22-25%!! That's a huge reservoir of potential victims. That's nearly 20 million people in Germany
    Germany really could be the latest victim of the golden rule of covid hubris. The share of positive tests they have at the moment suggests the true level of current cases is quite dramatic.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    Why are Germanic people so anti-vax?

    I get that you can blame the legacy of communism in East Germany, but you can't do that in Austria or Switzerland


    Switzerland is particularly perplexing. The home of so much pharma. The calm, logical land of Rousseau, Paracelsus, Einstein, and Roger Federer. And Le Corbusier. And Nicholas of Flue. And Erich von Daniken

    Swtitzerland. 24.4% of over 12s without a single jab

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748644295950344?s=20
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    eek said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    8m
    BREAKING: US warns EU that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine.

    Invading Ukraine as winter starts? Quite a challenge even for Russia.

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour 295,278,267 votes? Blimey, that's a lot!

    If Starmer does not match it then he should GTFO, loser.
    Some interesting polls on this recently:

    How polls have changed since Starmer became leader:

    Redfield and Winton 🌹LAB+7, 🌳CON-12
    YouGov 🌹Lab+8, 🌳Con-16
    Opinium 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-16
    Ipsos MORI 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-17

    https://twitter.com/AdamRd1989/status/1457780064318222337?t=ahRAljpqCHBAtGgPUQIorQ&s=19

    All bar one do put Starmer 20 points ahead of the point before he became leader, and that was 19 points. I am not particularly a fan, but quite some swing.
    That looks fabulous. However, it's a bit misleading as when Starmer was elected the Tories were at their peak, with their popularity soaring in sympathy with Boris's bout of Covid. If I recall correctly.
    Sure, it is comparing the peak Tory polling under Corbyn to now, but quite some swing.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour 295,278,267 votes? Blimey, that's a lot!

    If Starmer does not match it then he should GTFO, loser.
    Some interesting polls on this recently:

    How polls have changed since Starmer became leader:

    Redfield and Winton 🌹LAB+7, 🌳CON-12
    YouGov 🌹Lab+8, 🌳Con-16
    Opinium 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-16
    Ipsos MORI 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-17

    https://twitter.com/AdamRd1989/status/1457780064318222337?t=ahRAljpqCHBAtGgPUQIorQ&s=19

    All bar one do put Starmer 20 points ahead of the point before he became leader, and that was 19 points. I am not particularly a fan, but quite some swing.
    I've recently backed Starmer to be next PM in a modest way. 5ish BF. If anything though he's been drifting.I don't really get why as surely Boris is in more trouble than he's ever been. Is there some view that Labour would use the opportunity of any Tory leadership change to switch too?

    I'd really like to find a bet that focussed on the LD/Green race - perhaps "3rd party seatwise"? Would you 1000 on either the Tories or Labour? (Normally probably yes, but currently - not so sure)


    You think the Greens could beat the LD's for seats? I'd be surprised if they improved on their 1 tbh.
  • Leon said:

    Why are Germanic people so anti-vax?

    I get that you can blame the legacy of communism in East Germany, but you can't do that in Austria or Switzerland


    Switzerland is particularly perplexing. The home of so much pharma. The calm, logical land of Rousseau, Paracelsus, Einstein, and Roger Federer. And Le Corbusier. And Nicholas of Flue. And Erich von Daniken

    Swtitzerland. 24.4% of over 12s without a single jab

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748644295950344?s=20

    You need a history lesson.

    I'm trying to think of if the German people can recall mandatory jabs that happened before communism.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861

    Leon said:

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    Has nobody spotted that yesterday had the highest number of first doses of Vaccine since July.

    (And highest number of second doses since Sept).

    I did. But I was told it is "data catch up" by Max, who normally knows his Covid onions
    It's still good because what we thought were poor numbers was just an underreporting error. The booster shots look positively smashing at the moment. Should hit 3m per week next week.
    I read that the Netherlands (I think) has only just started boostering over 80s. Madness
    Europe hasn't really learned from out failures at all. I read that they aren't planning to start over 60s boosters until Jan 2020, it's not as though they don't have the supply either. Europe is sitting on something like 200m Pfizer doses for it's booster programme.
    Hmm.. you're making the classic mistake of thinking that 'Europe' acts as though it were a single country. Ireland, France, Denmark, and Spain are far ahead of the UK in jab take-up despite the botched start, and France in particular is going great guns on the boosters. On the other hand, Germany, Switzerland and Austria are still miles behind the UK, and it's beginning to show in their deaths and hospitalisation figures. Further east it's disastrous.

    The Netherlands is about the same as us in total take up, and you can see the protection in the figures. Like us, though, they've got too many cases for comfort:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748635609550848
    France is not "going great guns on the boosters". They're only able to bring in the vaccine pass requirement for over 65s from December 15th - more than a month away. They are seriously behind the UK.

    image
    They most certainly are not miles behind the UK. We have 13.6% of over-12s completely unvaxxed (i.e. not even the first dose), they are on 8.4%.

    Of course, they started later, so applying the same 6-month period that we apply, it's appropriate that the number of triple-jabbed is currently lower than ours. The point is, though, that they are getting on with it, and they are going to enforce it seriously. I fully expect them to get a higher triple-jab rate than us quite quickly.
    They've done better in absolute total jabs because they have introduced rigorous, universal vaxports. I regret that the UK did not do the same, but it was an economic and libertarian choice, that we consciously made - supported by many on here

    The only way you can drive up vax rates to 85%+ is with mandatory vaxports everywhere

    The truly alarming figures in that FT twitter thread is the German-speaking non vaxed proportion of over 12s.

    22-25%!! That's a huge reservoir of potential victims. That's nearly 20 million people in Germany
    Germany really could be the latest victim of the golden rule of covid hubris. The share of positive tests they have at the moment suggests the true level of current cases is quite dramatic.
    Yes, it was kinda inevitable that the Great Ogre Covid, having feasted on everyone else, would eventually turn his monstrous dark eye on the self-congratulating Teutons, and allow himself a slow, Satanic smile
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,393
    Sandpit said:

    TimT said:

    FPT

    A question for our legal bods on this site.

    I am no Meghan Markle fan, but I do wonder whether the media pundits have got this one right. Reports say that, because Meghan drafted the letter to her father with the possibility of it being leaked in mind, that undermines her claim to 'an expectation of privacy'.

    That just does not make sense to me as an argument. I, as a diplomat, drafted many written communications, from internal memos to telegrams to policy documents, that were classified, and hence clearly had an expectation of privacy. But I also wrote them with a view to how I would defend what I had written if it became public. It would be ludicrous to argue that the classification of those documents should be challenged because I wrote them with the possibility of them becoming public in mind. Similarly, on the face of it, it seems ludicrous to argue that Meghan Markle's expectation of privacy should be questioned purely on the basis of her recognition that, despite that expectation, it might be leaked.

    What do the lawyers think on this?

    Is the bigger issue not, that she has now remembered she was collaborating on a book about herself at the time, therefore has conceded her own right to an expectation of privacy?
    I've not been following it, but I wouldn't have thought so. Cooperating with a book doesn't equate to open house. I choose to share some information about my sometimes eclectic life here, for amusement. Doesn't mean that I want Leon to drop by and scrape all the emails I've ever written to include in his next action-packed thriller. (yeah, well...)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,144
    Leon said:

    Why are Germanic people so anti-vax?

    I get that you can blame the legacy of communism in East Germany, but you can't do that in Austria or Switzerland


    Switzerland is particularly perplexing. The home of so much pharma. The calm, logical land of Rousseau, Paracelsus, Einstein, and Roger Federer. And Le Corbusier. And Nicholas of Flue. And Erich von Daniken

    Swtitzerland. 24.4% of over 12s without a single jab

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748644295950344?s=20

    It's weird, isn't it? As you say, Switzerland is particularly odd. This is a country which happily conforms to rules about what flowers you must put in your window-boxes. You'd have thought they'd all dutifully get jabbed when told to.

    Maybe the authorities haven't told them to, but that too is hard to understand.
  • Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour 295,278,267 votes? Blimey, that's a lot!

    If Starmer does not match it then he should GTFO, loser.
    Some interesting polls on this recently:

    How polls have changed since Starmer became leader:

    Redfield and Winton 🌹LAB+7, 🌳CON-12
    YouGov 🌹Lab+8, 🌳Con-16
    Opinium 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-16
    Ipsos MORI 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-17

    https://twitter.com/AdamRd1989/status/1457780064318222337?t=ahRAljpqCHBAtGgPUQIorQ&s=19

    All bar one do put Starmer 20 points ahead of the point before he became leader, and that was 19 points. I am not particularly a fan, but quite some swing.
    That looks fabulous. However, it's a bit misleading as when Starmer was elected the Tories were at their peak, with their popularity soaring in sympathy with Boris's bout of Covid. If I recall correctly.
    True, and the closing has been at least as much about the failures of BoJo and co as the successes of Labour. (And it's much easier to see the downsides for the government than the upsides.)

    But set against that that there have been two rounds of gap-closing, separated by a huge vaccine bounce.

    Say what you like about SKS, and his slogan for 2024 may well be "Vote Labour, because they'll have to do", but full marks for doggedness.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    Leon said:

    Why are Germanic people so anti-vax?

    I get that you can blame the legacy of communism in East Germany, but you can't do that in Austria or Switzerland


    Switzerland is particularly perplexing. The home of so much pharma. The calm, logical land of Rousseau, Paracelsus, Einstein, and Roger Federer. And Le Corbusier. And Nicholas of Flue. And Erich von Daniken

    Swtitzerland. 24.4% of over 12s without a single jab

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748644295950344?s=20

    Perhaps your national stereotypes are broken.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,768
    edited November 11
    dixiedean said:

    If this has any truth in it, the situation on the Poland/Belarus border is a classic feint. Sow discord amongst your enemies first. Doesn’t seem to have worked.
    I presume AUKUS will now come into its own?

    Erdogan has been threatening Greece today with similar border-inspired tactics, again, because he's furious about the increasing number of American bases in Greece and the ongoing gas/hydrocarbons conflict, which could mean Germany having to intervene on two fronts.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,438
    dixiedean said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour 295,278,267 votes? Blimey, that's a lot!

    If Starmer does not match it then he should GTFO, loser.
    Some interesting polls on this recently:

    How polls have changed since Starmer became leader:

    Redfield and Winton 🌹LAB+7, 🌳CON-12
    YouGov 🌹Lab+8, 🌳Con-16
    Opinium 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-16
    Ipsos MORI 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-17

    https://twitter.com/AdamRd1989/status/1457780064318222337?t=ahRAljpqCHBAtGgPUQIorQ&s=19

    All bar one do put Starmer 20 points ahead of the point before he became leader, and that was 19 points. I am not particularly a fan, but quite some swing.
    I've recently backed Starmer to be next PM in a modest way. 5ish BF. If anything though he's been drifting.I don't really get why as surely Boris is in more trouble than he's ever been. Is there some view that Labour would use the opportunity of any Tory leadership change to switch too?

    I'd really like to find a bet that focussed on the LD/Green race - perhaps "3rd party seatwise"? Would you 1000 on either the Tories or Labour? (Normally probably yes, but currently - not so sure)


    You think the Greens could beat the LD's for seats? I'd be surprised if they improved on their 1 tbh.
    I don't think they will, but I have some sort of a chance in mind that they might. Also there's all sorts of other possibilities. Farage could re-emerge. Yikes!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    edited November 11
    Leon said:

    Why are Germanic people so anti-vax?

    I get that you can blame the legacy of communism in East Germany, but you can't do that in Austria or Switzerland


    Switzerland is particularly perplexing. The home of so much pharma. The calm, logical land of Rousseau, Paracelsus, Einstein, and Roger Federer. And Le Corbusier. And Nicholas of Flue. And Erich von Daniken

    Swtitzerland. 24.4% of over 12s without a single jab

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748644295950344?s=20

    It is worth noting that on that chart, 75.1% of over 12s are fully vaxxed in Germany against 78.8% in the UK and 90.1% in Spain. So we're not really doing *much* better.

    Where we do have a massive advantage is that we've allowed Covid to sweep through schools. This means we simply don't have the transmission vector that other countries do.

    It's also worth noting that we in the UK count 12 year olds as fully vaxxed after a single dose of Pfizer, while in the rest of Europe and the US, it requires two jabs.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675
    I see the BBC have now named the Labour MP who was sloshed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    dixiedean said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour 295,278,267 votes? Blimey, that's a lot!

    If Starmer does not match it then he should GTFO, loser.
    Some interesting polls on this recently:

    How polls have changed since Starmer became leader:

    Redfield and Winton 🌹LAB+7, 🌳CON-12
    YouGov 🌹Lab+8, 🌳Con-16
    Opinium 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-16
    Ipsos MORI 🌹Lab+6, 🌳Con-17

    https://twitter.com/AdamRd1989/status/1457780064318222337?t=ahRAljpqCHBAtGgPUQIorQ&s=19

    All bar one do put Starmer 20 points ahead of the point before he became leader, and that was 19 points. I am not particularly a fan, but quite some swing.
    I've recently backed Starmer to be next PM in a modest way. 5ish BF. If anything though he's been drifting.I don't really get why as surely Boris is in more trouble than he's ever been. Is there some view that Labour would use the opportunity of any Tory leadership change to switch too?

    I'd really like to find a bet that focussed on the LD/Green race - perhaps "3rd party seatwise"? Would you 1000 on either the Tories or Labour? (Normally probably yes, but currently - not so sure)


    You think the Greens could beat the LD's for seats? I'd be surprised if they improved on their 1 tbh.
    Brighton Pavilion is quite a funny seat. Lucas squeaked in on a 2.4% majority on only 31.3% of the vote, but the voters there clearly like both her and being 'the' Green seat, and now she has a majority of 34.4%.

    I wonder if they'd get a similar situation if they broke through in another seat, but managing that seems, well, hard doesn't begin to describe it - they did well in Bristol West in 2015 but even in 2019 with the LDs presumably stepping asied (in a seat they won in 2010 with 48% of the vote!) they were 28000 votes behind Labour.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503

    Leon said:

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    Has nobody spotted that yesterday had the highest number of first doses of Vaccine since July.

    (And highest number of second doses since Sept).

    I did. But I was told it is "data catch up" by Max, who normally knows his Covid onions
    It's still good because what we thought were poor numbers was just an underreporting error. The booster shots look positively smashing at the moment. Should hit 3m per week next week.
    I read that the Netherlands (I think) has only just started boostering over 80s. Madness
    Europe hasn't really learned from out failures at all. I read that they aren't planning to start over 60s boosters until Jan 2020, it's not as though they don't have the supply either. Europe is sitting on something like 200m Pfizer doses for it's booster programme.
    Hmm.. you're making the classic mistake of thinking that 'Europe' acts as though it were a single country. Ireland, France, Denmark, and Spain are far ahead of the UK in jab take-up despite the botched start, and France in particular is going great guns on the boosters. On the other hand, Germany, Switzerland and Austria are still miles behind the UK, and it's beginning to show in their deaths and hospitalisation figures. Further east it's disastrous.

    The Netherlands is about the same as us in total take up, and you can see the protection in the figures. Like us, though, they've got too many cases for comfort:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748635609550848
    France is not "going great guns on the boosters". They're only able to bring in the vaccine pass requirement for over 65s from December 15th - more than a month away. They are seriously behind the UK.

    image
    They most certainly are not miles behind the UK. We have 13.6% of over-12s completely unvaxxed (i.e. not even the first dose), they are on 8.4%.

    Of course, they started later, so applying the same 6-month period that we apply, it's appropriate that the number of triple-jabbed is currently lower than ours. The point is, though, that they are getting on with it, and they are going to enforce it seriously. I fully expect them to get a higher triple-jab rate than us quite quickly.
    They've done better in absolute total jabs because they have introduced rigorous, universal vaxports. I regret that the UK did not do the same, but it was an economic and libertarian choice, that we consciously made - supported by many on here

    The only way you can drive up vax rates to 85%+ is with mandatory vaxports everywhere

    The truly alarming figures in that FT twitter thread is the German-speaking non vaxed proportion of over 12s.

    22-25%!! That's a huge reservoir of potential victims. That's nearly 20 million people in Germany
    Germany really could be the latest victim of the golden rule of covid hubris. The share of positive tests they have at the moment suggests the true level of current cases is quite dramatic.
    I posted the test positivity numbers yesterday, and Germany didn't stand out. It was nowhere near Ireland (14%) or some of South America or Eastern Europe (40+%)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,176
    They're going absolutely mental in Hunlandia, you love to see it.



    My conversational German has stalled a bit, wouldn't mind a bit of alternative history sorting it out for me.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,632
    Foxy said:

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    Has nobody spotted that yesterday had the highest number of first doses of Vaccine since July.

    (And highest number of second doses since Sept).

    I did. But I was told it is "data catch up" by Max, who normally knows his Covid onions
    It's still good because what we thought were poor numbers was just an underreporting error. The booster shots look positively smashing at the moment. Should hit 3m per week next week.
    I read that the Netherlands (I think) has only just started boostering over 80s. Madness
    Europe hasn't really learned from out failures at all. I read that they aren't planning to start over 60s boosters until Jan 2020, it's not as though they don't have the supply either. Europe is sitting on something like 200m Pfizer doses for it's booster programme.
    Hmm.. you're making the classic mistake of thinking that 'Europe' acts as though it were a single country. Ireland, France, Denmark, and Spain are far ahead of the UK in jab take-up despite the botched start, and France in particular is going great guns on the boosters. On the other hand, Germany, Switzerland and Austria are still miles behind the UK, and it's beginning to show in their deaths and hospitalisation figures. Further east it's disastrous.

    The Netherlands is about the same as us in total take up, and you can see the protection in the figures. Like us, though, they've got too many cases for comfort:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1458748635609550848
    France is not "going great guns on the boosters". They're only able to bring in the vaccine pass requirement for over 65s from December 15th - more than a month away. They are seriously behind the UK.

    image
    Surely that's just because France, like the rest of the EU, was a couple of months behind us from the start of the vaccination programme, so the boosters will also be a couple of months behind us?
    Yes, what do the numbers look like when re-based that way?
    Here you go:

    https://i.imgur.com/ow0w5rM.png

    Not too dissimilar. The gap between the dashed and solid blue lines is about 3 weeks.
This discussion has been closed.