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Priti Patel has negative ratings even from GE2019 CON voters – politicalbetting.com
Priti Patel has negative ratings even from GE2019 CON voters – politicalbetting.com
One of the reasons I love Opinium polls more than others is the way the firm presents its data. There are far far more cross-heads than with any other firm and poll watchers can spend hours just going through it.
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Any discussion of issues like housing or immigration that doesn't mention demographics and ageing is incomplete at best, misleading at worst. Between 1980 and 2020 the UK population increased by almost 12mn people, or by 21%, to 67.9mn. But over the same period, the population aged 15-64 grew 20%, the population aged under 15 grew 2% and the population aged 65+ grew 51%.
Think about what this ageing society means for housing: older people in the UK mostly live in their own homes, while children live with their parents. So a society where 21% are children and 15% are elderly (1980) needs less housing than one where 18% are children and 19% are elderly (2020) - even if the population hadn't increased by 12mn.
Think about what this ageing society means for the labour market: elderly people consume goods and services (and more than children do) but mostly don't work. That means more labour demand, less supply. That means a tight labour market. In the past that excess demand was met by immigration. Apparently that won't happen any more - let's see about that. The pressure to meet this excess demand for labour from abroad will be immense. And in a competitive global economy simply "giving everyone a pay rise" doesn't solve the problem unless it is accompanied by massive investment to raise productivity or delivers an improbably large rise in labour participation.
Think about what an ageing society means for government spending. Pensions and health are eats up more and more of the budget. Spending on investment (including education) gets squeezed. The burden of taxation on workers keeps on going up. And unlike children, who parents work to support voluntarily, all this taxation on workers is involuntary, breeding resentment and discouraging work. That is why our tax and benefits system abounds with incentive-sapping high marginal tax rates. This is why the elderly now have their own political party, who extracts ever greater resources from workers on the elderly's behalf. And imagine how much greater the burden on each worker would be if we hadn't boosted the number of workers by immigration.
If you don't understand the demographic pressures underlying all of this, you don't understand anything that's going on in this country, or indeed the developed world more generally.
CON 40 (-5)
LAB 32 (-2)
GRN 9 (+2)
LD 6 (+1)
SNP 6 (+1)
RUK 3 (=)
PC 1 (=)
OTH 2 (+1)
Fieldwork 11th-18th October (changes vs 7th-14th June)
n=1,000
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1450155243778592773?s=21
Personally, my bias against her is all entirely conscious, and down to her right-wing views (which I am sure she holds sincerely) and her stupidity (which she cannot really help tbf).
We are in the middle of a large scale rebasing of our social attitudes and Patel might be a beneficiary of such process.
"Oh no! A politician has been murdered by a possible Islamic extremist! Quick, ban anonymous posting on the internet!"
It's not quite the unbeatable classic of US politicians in the wake of schoolkids getting gunned down calling for videogame guns to be banned/regulated while opposing the increased regulation of actual lethal weaponry, but it's not far off.
So what's your plane for when the extra millions become pensioners ?
Even more immigration in a ponzi scheme which requires ever more housing and ever more infrastructure and ever more taxation ?
The guardian cartoon portrayal of her, given her religion, was extremely offensive,
If you say you're going to be tough on everything, you had better have a plan to actually be tough on everything.
The key thing you and a few others are missing is that if "everyone" gets a pay rise, then its not everyone who gets a pay rise. It is working people who do. Working people get a pay rise, which marginally affects prices, which works essentially as a transfer then from the non-working to the working.
If the elderly need to pay a decent salary to their carers, or people providing their groceries, or doing their hair, or whatever other services are working to provide for them, then that will reduce not increase the generational divides.
It will also then require major investment in automation etc so that those workers become more efficient, since they're able to command higher salaries. This isn't just science fiction or crazy economics, its already happened in nations like Japan that has far worse demographics than we do.
In Japan they're currently facing a situation where children are 12.0% of population and 65+ are 28.8% of population (2020 figures) which is much worse than the 18% and 19% respectively that you quoted.
We need to be looking at Japan and seeing what we can learn from them on how to handle demographic changes.
It must be because she's a terrible human being as well as a terrible Home Secretary.
Oh, and the fact she's as dumb as a box of rocks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DrsVhzbLzU&t=3s
Oh and lest we forget, she had to resign in disgrace for being a national security risk.
Not a bad idea as it would free up some housing.
But you still have the pensions to pay and the bung would have to be more than a few quid if you want the poor country to take on the health and social care costs.
And which poor country ? The Club Med lot are too affluent for it to work. MENA are too backward and too dangerous. Eastern Europe is too cold in winter. SE Asia is too far away.
I am not necessarily advocating for more immigration. I am simply setting out that the alternative is an ever higher burden on working age people, meaning higher marginal tax rates, pushing some to not work and worsening the problem for everyone else. In my view there will be immigration anyway, whatever anyone says, because the economic forces pulling in labour are so remorseless. Even Japan has more than tripled its numbers of foreign workers since 2008.
If she can also crack down hard on jihadi extremism of the type that almost certainly produced David Amess' killer she will boost her score even more with them
Patel remains unworthy to be in Cabinet.
In all seriousness, it's interesting how little impact unhealthy lifestyles appear to have on life expectancy. On the whole, people must be living healthier lives than they did in the past, even if the narrative is the opposite. Or, I suppose, we're getting good at keeping unhealthy people alive.
But the problem with cartoons like that is twofold, it makes her a victim/sympathetic character and people who really should know better are just happy to support it as tv has a go at someone they don’t like.
Nobody is proposing zero immigration. Even if we ever had a situation of net zero migration we'd still potentially be increasing our number of foreign workers as people emigrate and others immigrate.
But Japan unlike the UK have not looked to foreign labour as an alternative to changing demographics. Their primary way to handle demographic changes has been investment. Which is what it should be.
https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1450377266211528705?s=20
Clip:
https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1450378687837261826?s=20
There have been so many improvements over the last seven decades, and it's only in relation to obesity and sedentary lifestyles, that anything has become worse.
After fuming a bit about my mum's Covid booster, we took the advice of many on here and phoned 119. They booked her into a pharmacy to get the third jab ASAP.
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1450379640623804417?s=20
According to this source "there were an estimated 600,000 foreign workers, including illegal laborers, in Japan in 1993, almost tripling to 1.72 million by 2020, according to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare". So nearly tripled in 27 years.
I'm curious what the UK figures, and bear in mind that proportionately Japan has double the population of the UK so that would be the equivalent of less than a million foreign workers in the UK in 2020. As we know over 6 million EU nationals alone claimed permanent status recently.
EDIT: 1.7m foreign workers in total, an increase of just over 1 million in 27 years, is not "throwing in the towel".
With only 15.9% of that age group having been jabbed, govt is now planning a fairly major U-turn with under-16s allowed to access walk-in centres (as in Scotland) rather than relying solely on schools.
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1450383881031589888?s=20
I was working with a well known female personality for British Rail and she told me that there was literally a top 'top twenty' of female personalities. The higher up the list the more the advertiser had to pay to use them. She went through the top ten and all made sense but there was no obvious metric for why they were in that order. It was just a list that went from 'She's be great' to "She'd be OK'
Now what would worry me is higher employment taxes and unaffordable housing leading to high skilled workers emigrating while low skilled workers arriving because the UK is affluent and with a generous non-contributory welfare state compared with most of the world.
Those in the border force and RNLI especially (and I include my son in that who is RNLI crew) do not risk their lives to save anyone at sea for a home secretary to actually make if far more likely lives will be lost
You seem to be locked in some time warp failing to recognise that the conservative party is leaving you behind as Boris tacks left with big spend big state interventions and ordinary people want to see a home secretary who stops migrants crossing the channel, not because they are migrants, but that they risking their lives and those who have to rescue them
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58959045
Ministers say the subsidies will make heat pumps a comparable price to a new gas boiler. However, the £450m being allocated for the subsidies over three years will cover a maximum of 90,000 pumps.
Mike Childs, head of science at Friends of the Earth, said the number of heat pumps that the grants would cover "just isn't very much" and meant the UK would not meet its aim of installing 600,000 heat pumps a year by 2028.
Don't these idiots understand anything about the concept of pump priming? According to the BBC you can get a heat pump currently for about £10,000 including installation and this grant will cut it to £5,000. But that's the prices today with it being bleeding edge technology, not much investment in the sector yet and not many engineers working in the sector yet. Bleeding edge technology is always expensive.
If this works as pump priming, of which there's no guarantee, then in three years time the cost of a new heat pump and installation could be considerably under the £10,000 average it can be today.
Maybe in 3 years the typical cost is down to £7,000 and you could have a new 3 year scheme for the same budget covering twice as many homes at a £2,500 grant and the net cost would be even cheaper than today (especially in real terms).
If we're getting to 2028 to get this sector really moving and 2050 to complete the eradication of gas boilers (no new ones from 2035 then circa 15 years for them to die and be replaced) then 90,000 in the next 3 years is a start and not nothing.
When will journalists or ecoloons ever learn?
https://www.ft.com/content/45febe54-ca7a-40ff-a615-82960938a66e
The kind of thing that keeps economists awake at night. Should we be concerned? Possibly.
I think the most worrying thing is if we raise interest rates and it doesn’t control inflation. Which may well happen.
Interesting times.
Contrast with Truss, who has - on the face of it, at least - been delivering on her rhetoric.
Edit: There's also the racism/sexism angle of course, which might apply for some. But Truss is highly rated on Con Home surveys and Sunak does OK, I think. So I'm not convinced those are big factors.
There's certainly been many oldies I know who had them quickly and likewise several PBers.
What I'm curious about is why health and care workers are getting them much slower now than they did for the first two doses.
Considering heating represents 20% of our domestic emissions then a switching to clean heating seems necessary globally if we're going to treat global emissions seriously. And if we can get a leading edge on a technology of the future that could be a good thing to manufacture and export around the world. Instead of importing gas.
The cost is AIUI, mostly in digging a very deep hole.
Perhaps doing a whole street at once might create efficiencies?
What has been truly remarkable about the Tory vote over the last year and pretty much since the election is how consistent it has been with all pollsters in a surprisingly small band around 40%. The reasonable inference is that this is made up largely of those who still think Brexit was a good idea. They have stubbornly stuck to their guns. How then do we get such an extraordinary difference between current supporters and 2019 supporters? I just don't believe it.
I want a switch to lower taxes and less government. Green ecoloonies will never be satisfied.
Fortunately, I think people are slowly starting to turn against them.
Foreign born workers
1997 1.921m
2021 6.057m
Foreign national workers
1997 0.928m
2021 3.716m
Plus whatever numbers of illegal workers.
Sam Freedman
@Samfr
Really not keen on how extremism leading to murder is being conflated with people making angry criticism of MPs. There is no way to police the latter without straying into censorship as what it an acceptable level of civility on any given topic is subjective.
The creed to which Amess' killer seemingly subscribed (Militant islamism) is.. remarkably quiet on social media.
It would actually be even better than boosting our birthrate because we wouldn't have to support them as kids.
May be of interest to at least one.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/oct/19/unfreezing-the-ice-age-the-truth-about-humanitys-deep-past
It seems odd that the figure was lower in 2008 from your data than it was in 1993 according to my data. And their demographics had already changed worse than ours had between 1993 and 2008.
There will always be a need for foreign born labour and we should never turn it away, but its not the solution for demographics. They've got over 28% of their population over 65 which is far, far more than we do and they've been able to handle that via investment. That's what we need too, investment and good wages not ever more cheap serfs being imported without housing provided to provide everything at low cost to the people who have taken the countries wealth and don't want to pay a good salary to those who are working today.
When fully modernising an existing property, it is a sensible option to look at.
This stuff really isn't cheap - I suspect my solution will be to move to a new home...
Unfortunately, it seems that her moment has passed; she is regarded as a dud by her supporters because she talks tough and can't actually deliver anything. Shes had a couple of years trying to sort out the woke home office, had all the weight of Cummings and Johnson behind her, still nothing really changes. The reaction to the Amess murder is probably another nail in her coffin; shes clearly been misled in to going on about politicians safety and online trolling and not the real problem. So her fate unfortunately will be to be hated by the left and regarded as a useless idiot by the right. She's admittedly had a pretty impressive run; but all political careers end in failure.
The UK had an increase of 2.79m in 14 years. 200k per year on average.
Japan had an increase of 1.12m in 14 years. So 40k per year on average, once scaled for population.
And that's with Japan's demographics being much, much, much worse than the UK's. So if demographics "required" immigration then we'd require much less than Japan not much more.
From what we know his murderer seems to have an Islamist radical. Online abuse is another matter. There are already laws against making threats of violence. Censoring the internet - which some politicians would like to do - is not the answer. It is notable also when some papers abused judges and others, the very same politicians who don't like getting abuse were remarkably quiet about this.
Should at least be part of the mix as we move to net zero.
You might want new radiators, but radiators are cheap & modern high surface area rads are hardly any larger than the kind of radiators that are often already in place.
And you underestimeate the major advances that can be made in reducing per-unit cost as manufacturing scales up. Just because a technology is mature doesn’t mean costs cannot be reduced.
First round Macron 24% Zemmour 17% Le Pen 15% Bertrand 14% Melenchon 11% Jadot 7% Hidalgo 5%.
Run offs
Macron 57% Zemmour 43%
Macron 54% Le Pen 46%
Macron 52% Bertrand 48%
Macron 62% Melenchon 38%
https://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2021/10/Rapport-Harris-Vague-17-Intentions-de-vote-Presidentielle-2022-Challenges.pdf
I can't see him winning though. At present, he'll get through to the last two and lose to Macron, just as Le Pen always did. My view is that the only candidate who can beat Macron in the second round is Bertrand - but Bertrand will probably get squeezed out in the first round. The only way the election therefore gets interesting (from a purely spectatorial point of view) is if Macron somehow manages not to get through the first round.
This could happen - he's not much liked and there are plenty of other candidates - but I don't see it as particularly likely.
Mind is made up then I won't switch till I have to - a future of lukewarm showers forever doesn't appeal.
Lets take the people out of the equation though as we try and de-hate politics. Literally anyone could be made Home Secretary and they would fail - the department has a long track-record of indifferent performance at best and open incompetence at worst.
What I don't understand with the politics of Patel and the government is how they are focused on (and failing with) tactics whilst completely missing the obvious strategic issues.
Brexit should have made a step change after "take back control" was applied to the border. That means ensuring that Border Force is well staffed and resourced, with mo "whoops" 4 hour queues for Brits to get through Heathrow. Which means having a coherent and visible border policy with Covid. Which means understanding where the practical limitations are with what can be achieved and not gobbing off rhetoric which will be comprehensively failed on delivery because its impossible.
Yes there is a real issue with these boat people that Tory voters need addressing. So step up patrols on the beaches where they land, have a robust plan to capture and process them and thus squeeze the flow as crossings are never successful in sneaking people in. Instead they have ceded the argument to the Nigel and his dinghy who now has his own reporting platform on GBeebies.
https://omnie.co.uk/heat-pump-pipe-sizing/
He said that a good Home Sec. would sweep the lot into the bin.
Interestingly, a similar approach was tried after the Brighton bombing. In the meeting immediately afterwards, a pile of proposals was presented to turn NI into Algeria in 196x.
Thatcher, with dust from the bomb on her clothes binned the lot. Then authourised the utterly ruthless measures that did for the PIRA in the end.