There's one heating technology that always seems to be neglected in discussions about replacing gas: PAJO. Much cheaper to install than GSHP or ASHP, is complementary to insulation and gives an immediate step down in gas usage without an immediate need to replace the old boiler. Can be combined with TDTT environmental management.
Should at least be part of the mix as we move to net zero.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Journalists can't do numeracy and ecoloons are loons part 975616516 of an ongoing series.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58959045 Ministers say the subsidies will make heat pumps a comparable price to a new gas boiler. However, the £450m being allocated for the subsidies over three years will cover a maximum of 90,000 pumps.
Mike Childs, head of science at Friends of the Earth, said the number of heat pumps that the grants would cover "just isn't very much" and meant the UK would not meet its aim of installing 600,000 heat pumps a year by 2028.
Don't these idiots understand anything about the concept of pump priming? According to the BBC you can get a heat pump currently for about £10,000 including installation and this grant will cut it to £5,000. But that's the prices today with it being bleeding edge technology, not much investment in the sector yet and not many engineers working in the sector yet. Bleeding edge technology is always expensive.
If this works as pump priming, of which there's no guarantee, then in three years time the cost of a new heat pump and installation could be considerably under the £10,000 average it can be today.
Maybe in 3 years the typical cost is down to £7,000 and you could have a new 3 year scheme for the same budget covering twice as many homes at a £2,500 grant and the net cost would be even cheaper than today (especially in real terms).
If we're getting to 2028 to get this sector really moving and 2050 to complete the eradication of gas boilers (no new ones from 2035 then circa 15 years for them to die and be replaced) then 90,000 in the next 3 years is a start and not nothing.
When will journalists or ecoloons ever learn?
Are you aware of what is required for a heat pump? Its not just a case of changing a boiler over and putting a pump in its place. Its new pipework throughout a house, new radiators, heat cylinders, control panels etc. An ASHP is not really that cutting edge technology wise so there will not be any major advances coming that will reduce the cost. And when people pickup on the fact that their house will be cold in the winter they will not want one.
Why would a heat pump require new pipework? If you’re re-using an existing radiator based heating system then the existing pipework should be fine, surely?
You might want new radiators, but radiators are cheap & modern high surface area rads are hardly any larger than the kind of radiators that are often already in place.
And you underestimeate the major advances that can be made in reducing per-unit cost as manufacturing scales up. Just because a technology is mature doesn’t mean costs cannot be reduced.
The irony is that in almost every home in the UK you'll typically find the radiators are already overkill. They've been designed deliberately bigger than needed so people can just pop them in without thinking about what is needed when planning a room.
Even in the coldest day in January or February if you turn up all your radiators to full blast and leave it like that for 24 hours then you'll likely soon have your house feel like a sauna if you do that. If so, then your radiators are already overkill for gas and can likely cope with a marginally lower temperature consistently flowing through it. Have a slightly lower temperature going through your radiator, but turn the radiator up slightly, and you've got the same outcome.
"Oh no! A politician has been murdered by a possible Islamic extremist! Quick, ban anonymous posting on the internet!"
It's not quite the unbeatable classic of US politicians in the wake of schoolkids getting gunned down calling for videogame guns to be banned/regulated while opposing the increased regulation of actual lethal weaponry, but it's not far off.
"Oh no! A politician has been murdered by a possible Islamic extremist! Quick, ban anonymous posting on the internet!"
It's not quite the unbeatable classic of US politicians in the wake of schoolkids getting gunned down calling for videogame guns to be banned/regulated while opposing the increased regulation of actual lethal weaponry, but it's not far off.
It seems to me that a number of politicians are, disingenuously, using the understandable emotions around the murder of Sir David Amess to push for the abandonment of anonymity on the internet when this was not the cause of his murder.
From what we know his murderer seems to have an Islamist radical. Online abuse is another matter. There are already laws against making threats of violence. Censoring the internet - which some politicians would like to do - is not the answer. It is notable also when some papers abused judges and others, the very same politicians who don't like getting abuse were remarkably quiet about this.
Michael Howard commented that, in his time at the Home Office, whenever there was a big event (terrorism etc), a large pile of proposals would get pulled out. Detention without trial was a hardy favourite, apparently.
He said that a good Home Sec. would sweep the lot into the bin.
Interestingly, a similar approach was tried after the Brighton bombing. In the meeting immediately afterwards, a pile of proposals was presented to turn NI into Algeria in 196x.
Tatcher, with dust from the bomb on her clothes binned the lot. Then authourised the utterly ruthless measures that did for the PIRA in the end.
Its really telling when Michael "something of the night" Howard stands like a giant over today's succession of Home Secretaries. Its a simple premise - this is Britain. There are things we simply do not do even if a populist crowd demand it.
Though the things we *will* do, are pretty..... interesting......
Hence the old joke about why the sun never sets on the British Empire....
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Yes the Conservative embrace of soft socialism and wokery have been a disaster.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
Just wait til Piers storms into favourite for the England & Wales Presidential election of 2034.......
Not beyond the bounds, you have to say. He'll be in his prime then, his whole 70s ahead of him, and seeking a legacy.
There's one heating technology that always seems to be neglected in discussions about replacing gas: PAJO. Much cheaper to install than GSHP or ASHP, is complementary to insulation and gives an immediate step down in gas usage without an immediate need to replace the old boiler. Can be combined with TDTT environmental management.
Should at least be part of the mix as we move to net zero.
My house in London has been insulated, has had energy efficient windows put in & UFH. Plus solar panels on every available roof space. It is a typical late Victorian terraced property. Water is direct from the mains so there is no water tank in the attic. There is very little outside wall space - conservatory at the back - and only side wall is all windows, guttering and a water butt. The pipework from the gas boiler couldn't when it was installed go into this side passage because it would be too close to the next property and I understand there are similar rules for the location of heat pumps.
I have yet to understand how a heat pump would fit in to such a property. And if they are not suitable for this sort of housing stock what practical solution, exactly, is being proposed for them?
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Lawrence Fox, Melanie Phillips, Douglas Murray, plenty of candidates for a British Zemmour
There's one heating technology that always seems to be neglected in discussions about replacing gas: PAJO. Much cheaper to install than GSHP or ASHP, is complementary to insulation and gives an immediate step down in gas usage without an immediate need to replace the old boiler. Can be combined with TDTT environmental management.
Should at least be part of the mix as we move to net zero.
There's one heating technology that always seems to be neglected in discussions about replacing gas: PAJO. Much cheaper to install than GSHP or ASHP, is complementary to insulation and gives an immediate step down in gas usage without an immediate need to replace the old boiler. Can be combined with TDTT environmental management.
Should at least be part of the mix as we move to net zero.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Have we yet heard Zemmour's policy for preventing emigration via the northern beaches?
There's one heating technology that always seems to be neglected in discussions about replacing gas: PAJO. Much cheaper to install than GSHP or ASHP, is complementary to insulation and gives an immediate step down in gas usage without an immediate need to replace the old boiler. Can be combined with TDTT environmental management.
Should at least be part of the mix as we move to net zero.
And what is PAJO?
Put A Jumper On
(Or at least that’s my guess...)
Bingo. And TDTT = turn down the thermostat. A perennial favourite tactic of mine.
Journalists can't do numeracy and ecoloons are loons part 975616516 of an ongoing series.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58959045 Ministers say the subsidies will make heat pumps a comparable price to a new gas boiler. However, the £450m being allocated for the subsidies over three years will cover a maximum of 90,000 pumps.
Mike Childs, head of science at Friends of the Earth, said the number of heat pumps that the grants would cover "just isn't very much" and meant the UK would not meet its aim of installing 600,000 heat pumps a year by 2028.
Don't these idiots understand anything about the concept of pump priming? According to the BBC you can get a heat pump currently for about £10,000 including installation and this grant will cut it to £5,000. But that's the prices today with it being bleeding edge technology, not much investment in the sector yet and not many engineers working in the sector yet. Bleeding edge technology is always expensive.
If this works as pump priming, of which there's no guarantee, then in three years time the cost of a new heat pump and installation could be considerably under the £10,000 average it can be today.
Maybe in 3 years the typical cost is down to £7,000 and you could have a new 3 year scheme for the same budget covering twice as many homes at a £2,500 grant and the net cost would be even cheaper than today (especially in real terms).
If we're getting to 2028 to get this sector really moving and 2050 to complete the eradication of gas boilers (no new ones from 2035 then circa 15 years for them to die and be replaced) then 90,000 in the next 3 years is a start and not nothing.
When will journalists or ecoloons ever learn?
Utter waste of money. Gas boilers work fine and ours contribute about 0.0001% to global greenhouse gas emissions.
If new technology can be ultimately cost-effective and get us using reliable, domestically generated energy instead of Putingas then that's a positive in its own right.
Considering heating represents 20% of our domestic emissions then a switching to clean heating seems necessary globally if we're going to treat global emissions seriously. And if we can get a leading edge on a technology of the future that could be a good thing to manufacture and export around the world. Instead of importing gas.
Somewhat. Yes pump-priming. Cost falls will probably be smallish for some time.
It is also about catching up and building the domestic base from its current low level.
Apparently we are actually more competitive at present in niche areas such as GSHPs.
UK ASHP manufacturers say they need a stable continued demand for the future.
The UK market for ASHPs this year is 65-70k. In France it is already 250-300k. In Europe overall about 1.3-1.5m .
Any discussion of issues like housing or immigration that doesn't mention demographics and ageing is incomplete at best, misleading at worst. Between 1980 and 2020 the UK population increased by almost 12mn people, or by 21%, to 67.9mn. But over the same period, the population aged 15-64 grew 20%, the population aged under 15 grew 2% and the population aged 65+ grew 51%. Think about what this ageing society means for housing: older people in the UK mostly live in their own homes, while children live with their parents. So a society where 21% are children and 15% are elderly (1980) needs less housing than one where 18% are children and 19% are elderly (2020) - even if the population hadn't increased by 12mn. Think about what this ageing society means for the labour market: elderly people consume goods and services (and more than children do) but mostly don't work. That means more labour demand, less supply. That means a tight labour market. In the past that excess demand was met by immigration. Apparently that won't happen any more - let's see about that. The pressure to meet this excess demand for labour from abroad will be immense. And in a competitive global economy simply "giving everyone a pay rise" doesn't solve the problem unless it is accompanied by massive investment to raise productivity or delivers an improbably large rise in labour participation. Think about what an ageing society means for government spending. Pensions and health are eats up more and more of the budget. Spending on investment (including education) gets squeezed. The burden of taxation on workers keeps on going up. And unlike children, who parents work to support voluntarily, all this taxation on workers is involuntary, breeding resentment and discouraging work. That is why our tax and benefits system abounds with incentive-sapping high marginal tax rates. This is why the elderly now have their own political party, who extracts ever greater resources from workers on the elderly's behalf. And imagine how much greater the burden on each worker would be if we hadn't boosted the number of workers by immigration. If you don't understand the demographic pressures underlying all of this, you don't understand anything that's going on in this country, or indeed the developed world more generally.
You make some interesting points but have missed one key fact. Importing more minimum wage people to do the jobs cheaply is fantastic for the elderly who don't need to buy housing, don't need to work, aren't getting a salary or pay rises and want cheap consumer prices.
The key thing you and a few others are missing is that if "everyone" gets a pay rise, then its not everyone who gets a pay rise. It is working people who do. Working people get a pay rise, which marginally affects prices, which works essentially as a transfer then from the non-working to the working.
If the elderly need to pay a decent salary to their carers, or people providing their groceries, or doing their hair, or whatever other services are working to provide for them, then that will reduce not increase the generational divides.
It will also then require major investment in automation etc so that those workers become more efficient, since they're able to command higher salaries. This isn't just science fiction or crazy economics, its already happened in nations like Japan that has far worse demographics than we do.
In Japan they're currently facing a situation where children are 12.0% of population and 65+ are 28.8% of population (2020 figures) which is much worse than the 18% and 19% respectively that you quoted.
We need to be looking at Japan and seeing what we can learn from them on how to handle demographic changes.
Japan has tripled its number of foreign workers in the last 12 years...
Tripling a small number equals a small number. I’m sure you wouldn’t deliberately use statistics to mislead so perhaps you can share some absolute figures?
Look down thread, you will see the data. 0.5mn to 1.7mn. With a 1mn increase in the last 7 years. No, I would never use statistics to mislead.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I think you are being a little harsh on Zemmour in comparing him to Piers Morgan. He's something of an intellectual (naturally - the French have great reverence for such people) and is rather less strident than Piers (or, indeed, Trump). I can't see him winning though. At present, he'll get through to the last two and lose to Macron, just as Le Pen always did. My view is that the only candidate who can beat Macron in the second round is Bertrand - but Bertrand will probably get squeezed out in the first round. The only way the election therefore gets interesting (from a purely spectatorial point of view) is if Macron somehow manages not to get through the first round. This could happen - he's not much liked and there are plenty of other candidates - but I don't see it as particularly likely.
Macron would beat Zemmour and Le Pen but both would get comfortably over 40% in the latest run off polls compared to the just 33% Le Pen got against Macron in 2017 (Zemmour on 43% and Le Pen on 46%). That would put the French populist right on about the same voteshare Trump got in the US in 2016 and 2020 and Boris and Farage got in the UK in 2019.
If they continued to increase their voteshare at the same rate a French rightwing populist could even win in 2027
On balance, I would give Priti a positive rating. She is the sort of person I want to see occupying the role of Home Sec. Someone who wants to lock up criminals.
What I don't want is some north London hand-wringer, saying that the criminals are victims of society, and being soft on crime, being clueless about its impact on Red Wall voters.
I saw Priti as someone who would go places as soon as she entered parliament. I've not been wrong, although #Priti4Leader has yet to come to fruition.
There's one heating technology that always seems to be neglected in discussions about replacing gas: PAJO. Much cheaper to install than GSHP or ASHP, is complementary to insulation and gives an immediate step down in gas usage without an immediate need to replace the old boiler. Can be combined with TDTT environmental management.
Should at least be part of the mix as we move to net zero.
And what is PAJO?
Put A Jumper On
(Or at least that’s my guess...)
How does that deal with cooking and washing?
That's fine, just use electricity (or barbecue and leave the cats to pre-clean the crockery).
There's one heating technology that always seems to be neglected in discussions about replacing gas: PAJO. Much cheaper to install than GSHP or ASHP, is complementary to insulation and gives an immediate step down in gas usage without an immediate need to replace the old boiler. Can be combined with TDTT environmental management.
Should at least be part of the mix as we move to net zero.
And what is PAJO?
Put A Jumper On
(Or at least that’s my guess...)
Bingo. And TDTT = turn down the thermostat. A perennial favourite tactic of mine.
When my first daughter was born, I turned the thermostat down to 20c.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Lawrence Fox, Melanie Phillips, Douglas Murray, plenty of candidates for a British Zemmour
People laugh at him, but Laurence Fox isn't giving up. But in the end, he is too nice for this role.
Any discussion of issues like housing or immigration that doesn't mention demographics and ageing is incomplete at best, misleading at worst. Between 1980 and 2020 the UK population increased by almost 12mn people, or by 21%, to 67.9mn. But over the same period, the population aged 15-64 grew 20%, the population aged under 15 grew 2% and the population aged 65+ grew 51%. Think about what this ageing society means for housing: older people in the UK mostly live in their own homes, while children live with their parents. So a society where 21% are children and 15% are elderly (1980) needs less housing than one where 18% are children and 19% are elderly (2020) - even if the population hadn't increased by 12mn. Think about what this ageing society means for the labour market: elderly people consume goods and services (and more than children do) but mostly don't work. That means more labour demand, less supply. That means a tight labour market. In the past that excess demand was met by immigration. Apparently that won't happen any more - let's see about that. The pressure to meet this excess demand for labour from abroad will be immense. And in a competitive global economy simply "giving everyone a pay rise" doesn't solve the problem unless it is accompanied by massive investment to raise productivity or delivers an improbably large rise in labour participation. Think about what an ageing society means for government spending. Pensions and health are eats up more and more of the budget. Spending on investment (including education) gets squeezed. The burden of taxation on workers keeps on going up. And unlike children, who parents work to support voluntarily, all this taxation on workers is involuntary, breeding resentment and discouraging work. That is why our tax and benefits system abounds with incentive-sapping high marginal tax rates. This is why the elderly now have their own political party, who extracts ever greater resources from workers on the elderly's behalf. And imagine how much greater the burden on each worker would be if we hadn't boosted the number of workers by immigration. If you don't understand the demographic pressures underlying all of this, you don't understand anything that's going on in this country, or indeed the developed world more generally.
You make some interesting points but have missed one key fact. Importing more minimum wage people to do the jobs cheaply is fantastic for the elderly who don't need to buy housing, don't need to work, aren't getting a salary or pay rises and want cheap consumer prices.
The key thing you and a few others are missing is that if "everyone" gets a pay rise, then its not everyone who gets a pay rise. It is working people who do. Working people get a pay rise, which marginally affects prices, which works essentially as a transfer then from the non-working to the working.
If the elderly need to pay a decent salary to their carers, or people providing their groceries, or doing their hair, or whatever other services are working to provide for them, then that will reduce not increase the generational divides.
It will also then require major investment in automation etc so that those workers become more efficient, since they're able to command higher salaries. This isn't just science fiction or crazy economics, its already happened in nations like Japan that has far worse demographics than we do.
In Japan they're currently facing a situation where children are 12.0% of population and 65+ are 28.8% of population (2020 figures) which is much worse than the 18% and 19% respectively that you quoted.
We need to be looking at Japan and seeing what we can learn from them on how to handle demographic changes.
Japan has tripled its number of foreign workers in the last 12 years...
Tripling a small number equals a small number. I’m sure you wouldn’t deliberately use statistics to mislead so perhaps you can share some absolute figures?
Look down thread, you will see the data. 0.5mn to 1.7mn. With a 1mn increase in the last 7 years. No, I would never use statistics to mislead.
1mn over 7 years in a population twice the size is equivalent to 70k per annum in the UK.
And that's with demographics that are not just worse than ours, but worse than ours are forecast to be even by 2040-2050.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Have we yet heard Zemmour's policy for preventing emigration via the northern beaches?
I misread that comment; thought you said preventing immigration via the northern beaches!
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Lawrence Fox, Melanie Phillips, Douglas Murray, plenty of candidates for a British Zemmour
On balance, I would give Priti a positive rating. She is the sort of person I want to see occupying the role of Home Sec. Someone who wants to lock up criminals.
What I don't want is some north London hand-wringer, saying that the criminals are victims of society, and being soft on crime, being clueless about its impact on Red Wall voters.
I saw Priti as someone who would go places as soon as she entered parliament. I've not been wrong, although #Priti4Leader has yet to come to fruition.
That's all fine. So why isn't Ms Patel locking up criminals? To do so you need coppers and well-resourced police forces, a well-staffed CPS and then a courts system that hasn't been budget cut to death.
One of our lawyer contributors can opine as to the exact length of the backlog in the courts, I know it isn't short. And this is nothing new with this government. Lots of guff about "we're going to do this" whilst slashing resources so that even the old standard they want to improve on is impossible.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Lawrence Fox, Melanie Phillips, Douglas Murray, plenty of candidates for a British Zemmour
None of them seem particularly popular (or even known) in their own milieu let alone more widely. I tend to think that would be the first qualification for a populist firebrand. Farage was/is closest but perhaps his moment has also passed.
I'm old enough to remember Labour's Green Deal, and then I look at the size, complications and cost of heat pumps and I think...ok, good luck with that.
There's one heating technology that always seems to be neglected in discussions about replacing gas: PAJO. Much cheaper to install than GSHP or ASHP, is complementary to insulation and gives an immediate step down in gas usage without an immediate need to replace the old boiler. Can be combined with TDTT environmental management.
Should at least be part of the mix as we move to net zero.
And what is PAJO?
Put A Jumper On
(Or at least that’s my guess...)
Bingo. And TDTT = turn down the thermostat. A perennial favourite tactic of mine.
Thats not what is says in the urban dictionary.....
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I think you are being a little harsh on Zemmour in comparing him to Piers Morgan. He's something of an intellectual (naturally - the French have great reverence for such people) and is rather less strident than Piers (or, indeed, Trump). I can't see him winning though. At present, he'll get through to the last two and lose to Macron, just as Le Pen always did. My view is that the only candidate who can beat Macron in the second round is Bertrand - but Bertrand will probably get squeezed out in the first round. The only way the election therefore gets interesting (from a purely spectatorial point of view) is if Macron somehow manages not to get through the first round. This could happen - he's not much liked and there are plenty of other candidates - but I don't see it as particularly likely.
He does look like an intellectual (if such a thing is possible) but the views sound rather agricultural. Maybe he thinks like a Steve Bannon and talks like a Donald Trump. That would be a formidable package. Although who he reminds me of - and quite strongly - is "Stan" in the Deer Hunter, which is not such a formidable package, neither in the film, nor as a candidate for political high office. Macron has shortened, I guess because a split right is thought likely to help him.
Which rather suggests IR35 may have more to do with it than Brexit..
Which is exactly what is being said by contractor groups and others.
IR35 reform was right. Companies used it to get people off the books and avoid liabilities without any risk on themselves. JLR had hundreds of its white collar team through agencies but they were treated as permanent employees.
Still it doesn’t chime with the narrative the FBPE head cases want to push.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
In a political context "Telling it like it is" basically means "Telling people what they want to hear, in a way that confirms their worst prejudices."
I'm afraid so. It shouldn't be this way but when I hear that about a politician I pretty much know the rest.
I'm old enough to remember Labour's Green Deal, and then I look at the size, complications and cost of heat pumps and I think...ok, good luck with that.
That was before the cost of gas quadrupled in the space of a couple of months. Alternative heating solutions and/or improved insulation might look rather more interesting to consumers now.
My house in London has been insulated, has had energy efficient windows put in & UFH. Plus solar panels on every available roof space. It is a typical late Victorian terraced property. Water is direct from the mains so there is no water tank in the attic. There is very little outside wall space - conservatory at the back - and only side wall is all windows, guttering and a water butt. The pipework from the gas boiler couldn't when it was installed go into this side passage because it would be too close to the next property and I understand there are similar rules for the location of heat pumps.
I have yet to understand how a heat pump would fit in to such a property. And if they are not suitable for this sort of housing stock what practical solution, exactly, is being proposed for them?
The problem with an air source heat pump is probably fan noise. There shouldn’t be any health + safety issues.
But just because heat pumps are difficult for some UK housing stock (we’re in much the same situation), doesn’t mean we shouldn’t encourage their use where they make sense.
On balance, I would give Priti a positive rating. She is the sort of person I want to see occupying the role of Home Sec. Someone who wants to lock up criminals.
What I don't want is some north London hand-wringer, saying that the criminals are victims of society, and being soft on crime, being clueless about its impact on Red Wall voters.
I saw Priti as someone who would go places as soon as she entered parliament. I've not been wrong, although #Priti4Leader has yet to come to fruition.
That's all fine. So why isn't Ms Patel locking up criminals? To do so you need coppers and well-resourced police forces, a well-staffed CPS and then a courts system that hasn't been budget cut to death.
One of our lawyer contributors can opine as to the exact length of the backlog in the courts, I know it isn't short. And this is nothing new with this government. Lots of guff about "we're going to do this" whilst slashing resources so that even the old standard they want to improve on is impossible.
I don't even think that's all fine. I want ever lower crime rates, and at the same time as few people in prison as possible. I other words a justice system similar to many more successful and less heavily incarcerated examples on the continent. I don't want a home secretary whose idea of effective justice is to emulate the USA.
As for migration and border security. The issue there is more of taste. We all know border security is important and a home office priority. She just seems to enjoy it a little bit too much.
That said, home secretary always seems to be a very unpopular position. There's precious little upside and a huge amount of risk. You are at the mercy of events. So even a stunningly successful home sec would I suspect never do that well in the ratings.
Any discussion of issues like housing or immigration that doesn't mention demographics and ageing is incomplete at best, misleading at worst. Between 1980 and 2020 the UK population increased by almost 12mn people, or by 21%, to 67.9mn. But over the same period, the population aged 15-64 grew 20%, the population aged under 15 grew 2% and the population aged 65+ grew 51%. Think about what this ageing society means for housing: older people in the UK mostly live in their own homes, while children live with their parents. So a society where 21% are children and 15% are elderly (1980) needs less housing than one where 18% are children and 19% are elderly (2020) - even if the population hadn't increased by 12mn. Think about what this ageing society means for the labour market: elderly people consume goods and services (and more than children do) but mostly don't work. That means more labour demand, less supply. That means a tight labour market. In the past that excess demand was met by immigration. Apparently that won't happen any more - let's see about that. The pressure to meet this excess demand for labour from abroad will be immense. And in a competitive global economy simply "giving everyone a pay rise" doesn't solve the problem unless it is accompanied by massive investment to raise productivity or delivers an improbably large rise in labour participation. Think about what an ageing society means for government spending. Pensions and health are eats up more and more of the budget. Spending on investment (including education) gets squeezed. The burden of taxation on workers keeps on going up. And unlike children, who parents work to support voluntarily, all this taxation on workers is involuntary, breeding resentment and discouraging work. That is why our tax and benefits system abounds with incentive-sapping high marginal tax rates. This is why the elderly now have their own political party, who extracts ever greater resources from workers on the elderly's behalf. And imagine how much greater the burden on each worker would be if we hadn't boosted the number of workers by immigration. If you don't understand the demographic pressures underlying all of this, you don't understand anything that's going on in this country, or indeed the developed world more generally.
You make some interesting points but have missed one key fact. Importing more minimum wage people to do the jobs cheaply is fantastic for the elderly who don't need to buy housing, don't need to work, aren't getting a salary or pay rises and want cheap consumer prices.
The key thing you and a few others are missing is that if "everyone" gets a pay rise, then its not everyone who gets a pay rise. It is working people who do. Working people get a pay rise, which marginally affects prices, which works essentially as a transfer then from the non-working to the working.
If the elderly need to pay a decent salary to their carers, or people providing their groceries, or doing their hair, or whatever other services are working to provide for them, then that will reduce not increase the generational divides.
It will also then require major investment in automation etc so that those workers become more efficient, since they're able to command higher salaries. This isn't just science fiction or crazy economics, its already happened in nations like Japan that has far worse demographics than we do.
In Japan they're currently facing a situation where children are 12.0% of population and 65+ are 28.8% of population (2020 figures) which is much worse than the 18% and 19% respectively that you quoted.
We need to be looking at Japan and seeing what we can learn from them on how to handle demographic changes.
Japan has tripled its number of foreign workers in the last 12 years...
Tripling a small number equals a small number. I’m sure you wouldn’t deliberately use statistics to mislead so perhaps you can share some absolute figures?
Look down thread, you will see the data. 0.5mn to 1.7mn. With a 1mn increase in the last 7 years. No, I would never use statistics to mislead.
1mn over 7 years in a population twice the size is equivalent to 70k per annum in the UK.
And that's with demographics that are not just worse than ours, but worse than ours are forecast to be even by 2040-2050.
For a country that until a few years ago was letting in nobody it is an absolute sea-change. They have given up on their zero immigration stance under the pressure of population ageing. It is a remarkable change and I think it just illustrates how powerful the labour market pressures created by ageing are, because in general the Japanese really aren't keen on immigration.
It's good to know we can blame a disaster on the stars. Well, etymologically speaking - as is my wont.
Disaster came to English via the French désastre in the 16C, from the Italian disastro. This literally means 'ill-starred', with the dis- equivalent to English mis-, + astro meaning star or planet, from Latin astrum and Greek astron.
Other *-aster-* derived words from star meanings are disappointingly obvious - asterisks, asteroids, astronauts, astronomy - all yawn..
But I was quite interested by AstroTurf. It was first used at the Astrodome in Houston, Texas - which was presumably named such as the US space program was HQ'd there (Houston, not the Astrodome!). So AstroTurf is astro- for star, + -turf which is from Proto-Germanic turbz (for turf or lawn), from Proto-Indo-European -derb (for tuft or grass), so star-grass
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
Latest Harris poll for next year's French presidential election.
First round Macron 24% Zemmour 17% Le Pen 15% Bertrand 14% Melenchon 11% Jadot 7% Hidalgo 5%.
Any discussion of issues like housing or immigration that doesn't mention demographics and ageing is incomplete at best, misleading at worst. Between 1980 and 2020 the UK population increased by almost 12mn people, or by 21%, to 67.9mn. But over the same period, the population aged 15-64 grew 20%, the population aged under 15 grew 2% and the population aged 65+ grew 51%. Think about what this ageing society means for housing: older people in the UK mostly live in their own homes, while children live with their parents. So a society where 21% are children and 15% are elderly (1980) needs less housing than one where 18% are children and 19% are elderly (2020) - even if the population hadn't increased by 12mn. Think about what this ageing society means for the labour market: elderly people consume goods and services (and more than children do) but mostly don't work. That means more labour demand, less supply. That means a tight labour market. In the past that excess demand was met by immigration. Apparently that won't happen any more - let's see about that. The pressure to meet this excess demand for labour from abroad will be immense. And in a competitive global economy simply "giving everyone a pay rise" doesn't solve the problem unless it is accompanied by massive investment to raise productivity or delivers an improbably large rise in labour participation. Think about what an ageing society means for government spending. Pensions and health are eats up more and more of the budget. Spending on investment (including education) gets squeezed. The burden of taxation on workers keeps on going up. And unlike children, who parents work to support voluntarily, all this taxation on workers is involuntary, breeding resentment and discouraging work. That is why our tax and benefits system abounds with incentive-sapping high marginal tax rates. This is why the elderly now have their own political party, who extracts ever greater resources from workers on the elderly's behalf. And imagine how much greater the burden on each worker would be if we hadn't boosted the number of workers by immigration. If you don't understand the demographic pressures underlying all of this, you don't understand anything that's going on in this country, or indeed the developed world more generally.
You make some interesting points but have missed one key fact. Importing more minimum wage people to do the jobs cheaply is fantastic for the elderly who don't need to buy housing, don't need to work, aren't getting a salary or pay rises and want cheap consumer prices.
The key thing you and a few others are missing is that if "everyone" gets a pay rise, then its not everyone who gets a pay rise. It is working people who do. Working people get a pay rise, which marginally affects prices, which works essentially as a transfer then from the non-working to the working.
If the elderly need to pay a decent salary to their carers, or people providing their groceries, or doing their hair, or whatever other services are working to provide for them, then that will reduce not increase the generational divides.
It will also then require major investment in automation etc so that those workers become more efficient, since they're able to command higher salaries. This isn't just science fiction or crazy economics, its already happened in nations like Japan that has far worse demographics than we do.
In Japan they're currently facing a situation where children are 12.0% of population and 65+ are 28.8% of population (2020 figures) which is much worse than the 18% and 19% respectively that you quoted.
We need to be looking at Japan and seeing what we can learn from them on how to handle demographic changes.
Japan has tripled its number of foreign workers in the last 12 years...
Tripling a small number equals a small number. I’m sure you wouldn’t deliberately use statistics to mislead so perhaps you can share some absolute figures?
Look down thread, you will see the data. 0.5mn to 1.7mn. With a 1mn increase in the last 7 years. No, I would never use statistics to mislead.
1mn over 7 years in a population twice the size is equivalent to 70k per annum in the UK.
And that's with demographics that are not just worse than ours, but worse than ours are forecast to be even by 2040-2050.
For a country that until a few years ago was letting in nobody it is an absolute sea-change. They have given up on their zero immigration stance under the pressure of population ageing. It is a remarkable change and I think it just illustrates how powerful the labour market pressures created by ageing are, because in general the Japanese really aren't keen on immigration.
They haven't let nobody in, that's a huge exaggeration. They have been strict, that's true, but they still are.
The pressures they're facing are not remotely comparable to the UK. The UK has nowhere near their level of strictness, nor their level of demographic change.
So yes paying a good salary to working people (a transfer from the non-working to the working) and investing are both things we can do to both improve this country and improve the lot of people who are working in this nation.
Do you have any objections to working people getting a pay rise commensurate with the fact they're working? Do you have any objections to wealth being transferred from non-workers to workers via pay rises?
It's good to know we can blame a disaster on the stars. Well, etymologically speaking - as is my wont.
Disaster came to English via the French désastre in the 16C, from the Italian disastro. This literally means 'ill-starred', with the dis- equivalent to English mis-, + astro meaning star or planet, from Latin astrum and Greek astron.
Other *-aster-* derived words from star meanings are disappointingly obvious - asterisks, asteroids, astronauts, astronomy - all yawn..
But I was quite interested by AstroTurf. It was first used at the Astrodome in Houston, Texas - which was presumably named such as the US space program was HQ'd there (Houston, not the Astrodome!). So AstroTurf is astro- for star, + -turf which is from Proto-Germanic turbz (for turf or lawn), from Proto-Indo-European -derb (for tuft or grass), so star-grass
What about cadastral (as in cadastral map)? Same root or something different. And catastrophe?
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
Latest Harris poll for next year's French presidential election.
First round Macron 24% Zemmour 17% Le Pen 15% Bertrand 14% Melenchon 11% Jadot 7% Hidalgo 5%.
Not great for the left. Can they not find someone better than Melenchon?
The Socialist Party candidate is Hidalgo who is on just 5%. How far they have fallen from 2012 when their candidate Hollande won the presidency with 28% in the first round ie even more than the 24% Macron is on in round one and 52% in the runoff
On balance, I would give Priti a positive rating. She is the sort of person I want to see occupying the role of Home Sec. Someone who wants to lock up criminals.
What I don't want is some north London hand-wringer, saying that the criminals are victims of society, and being soft on crime, being clueless about its impact on Red Wall voters.
I saw Priti as someone who would go places as soon as she entered parliament. I've not been wrong, although #Priti4Leader has yet to come to fruition.
That's all fine. So why isn't Ms Patel locking up criminals? To do so you need coppers and well-resourced police forces, a well-staffed CPS and then a courts system that hasn't been budget cut to death.
One of our lawyer contributors can opine as to the exact length of the backlog in the courts, I know it isn't short. And this is nothing new with this government. Lots of guff about "we're going to do this" whilst slashing resources so that even the old standard they want to improve on is impossible.
I don't even think that's all fine. I want ever lower crime rates, and at the same time as few people in prison as possible. I other words a justice system similar to many more successful and less heavily incarcerated examples on the continent. I don't want a home secretary whose idea of effective justice is to emulate the USA.
As for migration and border security. The issue there is more of taste. We all know border security is important and a home office priority. She just seems to enjoy it a little bit too much.
That said, home secretary always seems to be a very unpopular position. There's precious little upside and a huge amount of risk. You are at the mercy of events. So even a stunningly successful home sec would I suspect never do that well in the ratings.
I'm more on your side of the fence than @SandyRentool . My point was that saying "Yay Priti she wants to lock up more criminals" would be a good point if she wasn't utterly failing at it.
Eventually when the bluster runs out there won't be anywhere to hide. If the plan is tough sentances and criminals in jail then that needs to be the practice, not saying it whilst presiding over the collapse of an effective criminal justice system.
Over-promise and Under-deliver is always a recipe for political destruction, no matter how popular the promises may be when you make them.
It's good to know we can blame a disaster on the stars. Well, etymologically speaking - as is my wont.
Disaster came to English via the French désastre in the 16C, from the Italian disastro. This literally means 'ill-starred', with the dis- equivalent to English mis-, + astro meaning star or planet, from Latin astrum and Greek astron.
Other *-aster-* derived words from star meanings are disappointingly obvious - asterisks, asteroids, astronauts, astronomy - all yawn..
But I was quite interested by AstroTurf. It was first used at the Astrodome in Houston, Texas - which was presumably named such as the US space program was HQ'd there (Houston, not the Astrodome!). So AstroTurf is astro- for star, + -turf which is from Proto-Germanic turbz (for turf or lawn), from Proto-Indo-European -derb (for tuft or grass), so star-grass
What about cadastral (as in cadastral map)? Same root or something different. And catastrophe?
No, I looked that up. Seems to be from Ancient Greek κατὰ στίχον kata stikhon, which means "organised line by line"
ETA
And catastrophe is from κατά ,katá, “down, against”, + στρέφω stréphō, “I turn”
I'm old enough to remember Labour's Green Deal, and then I look at the size, complications and cost of heat pumps and I think...ok, good luck with that.
That was before the cost of gas quadrupled in the space of a couple of months. Alternative heating solutions and/or improved insulation might look rather more interesting to consumers now.
Its a lot of equipment to fit in a standard three bed semi.
Despite what is says if you are going to use the ASHP a lot then the radiators and pipework will need to changed, as pumping 40 degree water through 15mm pipework into a standard radiator will provide very limited heat.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Have we yet heard Zemmour's policy for preventing emigration via the northern beaches?
I misread that comment; thought you said preventing immigration via the northern beaches!
It's good to know we can blame a disaster on the stars. Well, etymologically speaking - as is my wont.
Disaster came to English via the French désastre in the 16C, from the Italian disastro. This literally means 'ill-starred', with the dis- equivalent to English mis-, + astro meaning star or planet, from Latin astrum and Greek astron.
Other *-aster-* derived words from star meanings are disappointingly obvious - asterisks, asteroids, astronauts, astronomy - all yawn..
But I was quite interested by AstroTurf. It was first used at the Astrodome in Houston, Texas - which was presumably named such as the US space program was HQ'd there (Houston, not the Astrodome!). So AstroTurf is astro- for star, + -turf which is from Proto-Germanic turbz (for turf or lawn), from Proto-Indo-European -derb (for tuft or grass), so star-grass
What about cadastral (as in cadastral map)? Same root or something different. And catastrophe?
I like asterism - a pattern of stars which isn't an official constellation.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Well, Farage was it - are we writing him off now? And, ok, Piers Morgan is suggested by some in jokey mode, but IS it such a joke? He has a huge presence, both digital and in person, and he knows how to push the buttons. His biggest problem is he's just so dislikeable, most of the country wants to punch him, but if he can graft on some folksy charm to his brand, who knows.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
Latest Harris poll for next year's French presidential election.
First round Macron 24% Zemmour 17% Le Pen 15% Bertrand 14% Melenchon 11% Jadot 7% Hidalgo 5%.
Not great for the left. Can they not find someone better than Melenchon?
That's a somewhat curious take. Melenchon is the candidate of the Far Left. As @HYUFD notes, Hidalgo is the candidate of the mainstream left. Jadot of the Greens. But Macron has effectively usurped them. He is now the representative of the Non-Right. And looks likely to win ceteris paribus. IF you put Macron on the left, then those named above sum to left 47% right 46%. And he wins cos he pulls in more Centrist voters. I agree with cookie. Only Bertrand can beat him. But, because the right is so divided he won't get in the top two, unless voters want someone who can win more than someone who makes them feel good about their prejudices. In a way, the opposite to here.
Any discussion of issues like housing or immigration that doesn't mention demographics and ageing is incomplete at best, misleading at worst. Between 1980 and 2020 the UK population increased by almost 12mn people, or by 21%, to 67.9mn. But over the same period, the population aged 15-64 grew 20%, the population aged under 15 grew 2% and the population aged 65+ grew 51%. Think about what this ageing society means for housing: older people in the UK mostly live in their own homes, while children live with their parents. So a society where 21% are children and 15% are elderly (1980) needs less housing than one where 18% are children and 19% are elderly (2020) - even if the population hadn't increased by 12mn. Think about what this ageing society means for the labour market: elderly people consume goods and services (and more than children do) but mostly don't work. That means more labour demand, less supply. That means a tight labour market. In the past that excess demand was met by immigration. Apparently that won't happen any more - let's see about that. The pressure to meet this excess demand for labour from abroad will be immense. And in a competitive global economy simply "giving everyone a pay rise" doesn't solve the problem unless it is accompanied by massive investment to raise productivity or delivers an improbably large rise in labour participation. Think about what an ageing society means for government spending. Pensions and health are eats up more and more of the budget. Spending on investment (including education) gets squeezed. The burden of taxation on workers keeps on going up. And unlike children, who parents work to support voluntarily, all this taxation on workers is involuntary, breeding resentment and discouraging work. That is why our tax and benefits system abounds with incentive-sapping high marginal tax rates. This is why the elderly now have their own political party, who extracts ever greater resources from workers on the elderly's behalf. And imagine how much greater the burden on each worker would be if we hadn't boosted the number of workers by immigration. If you don't understand the demographic pressures underlying all of this, you don't understand anything that's going on in this country, or indeed the developed world more generally.
You make some interesting points but have missed one key fact. Importing more minimum wage people to do the jobs cheaply is fantastic for the elderly who don't need to buy housing, don't need to work, aren't getting a salary or pay rises and want cheap consumer prices.
The key thing you and a few others are missing is that if "everyone" gets a pay rise, then its not everyone who gets a pay rise. It is working people who do. Working people get a pay rise, which marginally affects prices, which works essentially as a transfer then from the non-working to the working.
If the elderly need to pay a decent salary to their carers, or people providing their groceries, or doing their hair, or whatever other services are working to provide for them, then that will reduce not increase the generational divides.
It will also then require major investment in automation etc so that those workers become more efficient, since they're able to command higher salaries. This isn't just science fiction or crazy economics, its already happened in nations like Japan that has far worse demographics than we do.
In Japan they're currently facing a situation where children are 12.0% of population and 65+ are 28.8% of population (2020 figures) which is much worse than the 18% and 19% respectively that you quoted.
We need to be looking at Japan and seeing what we can learn from them on how to handle demographic changes.
Japan has tripled its number of foreign workers in the last 12 years...
Tripling a small number equals a small number. I’m sure you wouldn’t deliberately use statistics to mislead so perhaps you can share some absolute figures?
Look down thread, you will see the data. 0.5mn to 1.7mn. With a 1mn increase in the last 7 years. No, I would never use statistics to mislead.
1mn over 7 years in a population twice the size is equivalent to 70k per annum in the UK.
And that's with demographics that are not just worse than ours, but worse than ours are forecast to be even by 2040-2050.
For a country that until a few years ago was letting in nobody it is an absolute sea-change. They have given up on their zero immigration stance under the pressure of population ageing. It is a remarkable change and I think it just illustrates how powerful the labour market pressures created by ageing are, because in general the Japanese really aren't keen on immigration.
They haven't let nobody in, that's a huge exaggeration. They have been strict, that's true, but they still are.
The pressures they're facing are not remotely comparable to the UK. The UK has nowhere near their level of strictness, nor their level of demographic change.
So yes paying a good salary to working people (a transfer from the non-working to the working) and investing are both things we can do to both improve this country and improve the lot of people who are working in this nation.
Do you have any objections to working people getting a pay rise commensurate with the fact they're working? Do you have any objections to wealth being transferred from non-workers to workers via pay rises?
I would love to see all that happen. My problem with Brexit is that I don't think that will be the long-term outcome. If I am wrong about that then great.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Well, Farage was it - are we writing him off now? And, ok, Piers Morgan is suggested by some in jokey mode, but IS it such a joke? He has a huge presence, both digital and in person, and he knows how to push the buttons. His biggest problem is he's just so dislikeable, most of the country wants to punch him, but if he can graft on some folksy charm to his brand, who knows.
Not a joke! If he sees a plausible path he will take it. I don't see the plausible path yet but we are in turbulent times. Would have a hefty bet at 50/1 Piers Morgan to be PM at some point in his lifetime if that was available.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Well, Farage was it - are we writing him off now? And, ok, Piers Morgan is suggested by some in jokey mode, but IS it such a joke? He has a huge presence, both digital and in person, and he knows how to push the buttons. His biggest problem is he's just so dislikeable, most of the country wants to punch him, but if he can graft on some folksy charm to his brand, who knows.
The problem with folksy charm is this is Piers Morgan you're talking about.
I don't understand why Priti Patel isn't more popular.
I don't understand it either. Her views seem pretty much in line with the average Tory voter, and she has a decent bio and can communicate well. I mean, I wouldn't vote for her in a month of Sundays, but I'm not a target voter.
Maybe because these numbers are from the only opinion pollster that finds Boris politicians less popular than Sir Keir? So they’re a bit of an outlier
On balance, I would give Priti a positive rating. She is the sort of person I want to see occupying the role of Home Sec. Someone who wants to lock up criminals.
What I don't want is some north London hand-wringer, saying that the criminals are victims of society, and being soft on crime, being clueless about its impact on Red Wall voters.
I saw Priti as someone who would go places as soon as she entered parliament. I've not been wrong, although #Priti4Leader has yet to come to fruition.
That's all fine. So why isn't Ms Patel locking up criminals? To do so you need coppers and well-resourced police forces, a well-staffed CPS and then a courts system that hasn't been budget cut to death.
One of our lawyer contributors can opine as to the exact length of the backlog in the courts, I know it isn't short. And this is nothing new with this government. Lots of guff about "we're going to do this" whilst slashing resources so that even the old standard they want to improve on is impossible.
A lot of it is out of Priti's hands. She isn't the Chancellor. She isn't the Justice Secretary. She isn't a Calais copper giving the boats a shove to get into the Channel. But as an instinctive "Hang Em and Flog Em" authoritarian, she comes to the Home Office with the right attitude.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 6m Popn of England: 56m HIT: ~85%? => 48m Waning period: 2 yrs? => 460k infections/week = 65k/day Ascertainment rate: ~50%? => ~33k cases/day So unless waning takes much longer than 2 years, our current level of infections is roughly where we'll be when we reach endemicity (not yet)
Which rather suggests IR35 may have more to do with it than Brexit..
Which is exactly what is being said by contractor groups and others.
IR35 reform was right. Companies used it to get people off the books and avoid liabilities without any risk on themselves. JLR had hundreds of its white collar team through agencies but they were treated as permanent employees.
Still it doesn’t chime with the narrative the FBPE head cases want to push.
And it is still be used to get people off books and avoid liabilities. The reforms do nothing at all to put the liabilities on to companies. It is simply extending the zero hours contracts scheme further up the pay-scale.
There is a lot of heating expertise around on PB. May I ask them a question from a non scientist.
SFAICS home heating mostly involves heating liquid and sending hot liquid around the home with a pump.
The other forms involve radiant heat (gas and electric fires).
Electric immersion heaters have long been part of how to heat water. There are homes entirely electrically heated, though a minority at the moment.
Why isn't the answer, instead of complicated air source/ground source pumps and reverse refrigeration, to create an economy around renewable/nuclear electricity supply and use electricity as directly as possible to heat the liquid that is pumped around the home? With direct electric radiant heating as the secondary source.
There is a lot of heating expertise around on PB. May I ask them a question from a non scientist.
SFAICS home heating mostly involves heating liquid and sending hot liquid around the home with a pump.
The other forms involve radiant heat (gas and electric fires).
Electric immersion heaters have long been part of how to heat water. There are homes entirely electrically heated, though a minority at the moment.
Why isn't the answer, instead of complicated air source/ground source pumps and reverse refrigeration, to create an economy around renewable/nuclear electricity supply and use electricity as directly as possible to heat the liquid that is pumped around the home? With direct electric radiant heating as the secondary source.
Electric immersion heaters are an extremely expensive way to heat you house. Not sure about the efficiencies etc but no one in their right mind currently uses their immersion heater for anything other than short term quick heat if they can avoid it.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Yes the Conservative embrace of soft socialism and wokery have been a disaster.
This Brexit/BritNat iteration of the Tory Party has embraced wokery? That would be a democratic outrage. As soon as all the "trad values" Leavers whose support they rely on become aware of it, it's curtains. Betting volte face - lump on that Lab majority!
I'm old enough to remember Labour's Green Deal, and then I look at the size, complications and cost of heat pumps and I think...ok, good luck with that.
That was before the cost of gas quadrupled in the space of a couple of months. Alternative heating solutions and/or improved insulation might look rather more interesting to consumers now.
Its a lot of equipment to fit in a standard three bed semi.
Despite what is says if you are going to use the ASHP a lot then the radiators and pipework will need to changed, as pumping 40 degree water through 15mm pipework into a standard radiator will provide very limited heat.
Agree on the lot of equipment.
That looks like someone trying to create an opportunity to keep their technology in the game. It's problematic because 1 - we are pivoting away from gas, 2 - because it is a more complex install which will requite you to eg have 2 annual services not one (gas engineers will love you), 3 - because there are far simpler solutions available.
The stuff about always needing new pipework is for an ASHP is baloney, btw. You perhaps resize your rads (or use a double of the same size). Once you have improved your fabric you do a heat demand model for your house, and a calculation which will tell you what kit you need. Replacing rads is cheap. And then set the appropriate flow rate.
There is a lot of heating expertise around on PB. May I ask them a question from a non scientist.
SFAICS home heating mostly involves heating liquid and sending hot liquid around the home with a pump.
The other forms involve radiant heat (gas and electric fires).
Electric immersion heaters have long been part of how to heat water. There are homes entirely electrically heated, though a minority at the moment.
Why isn't the answer, instead of complicated air source/ground source pumps and reverse refrigeration, to create an economy around renewable/nuclear electricity supply and use electricity as directly as possible to heat the liquid that is pumped around the home? With direct electric radiant heating as the secondary source.
Heat Pumps have a "Coefficient of Performance" (COP) greater than 1. So, you put in 1 kJ of electrical energy, you get >1kJ of heat into your home. With direct radiant heating you can't get a COP >1, so less efficient.
I'm old enough to remember Labour's Green Deal, and then I look at the size, complications and cost of heat pumps and I think...ok, good luck with that.
That was before the cost of gas quadrupled in the space of a couple of months. Alternative heating solutions and/or improved insulation might look rather more interesting to consumers now.
Its a lot of equipment to fit in a standard three bed semi.
Despite what is says if you are going to use the ASHP a lot then the radiators and pipework will need to changed, as pumping 40 degree water through 15mm pipework into a standard radiator will provide very limited heat.
Any experience with high temperature heat pumps ? The prices look quite fancy, but with a £5k grant, perhaps not ridiculous.
If Tesco think they can make it work, great. Amazon's stores in the US appear to operate fine, but I do wonder if the fact they are rare means fewer attempts to avoid paying.
There is a lot of heating expertise around on PB. May I ask them a question from a non scientist.
SFAICS home heating mostly involves heating liquid and sending hot liquid around the home with a pump.
The other forms involve radiant heat (gas and electric fires).
Electric immersion heaters have long been part of how to heat water. There are homes entirely electrically heated, though a minority at the moment.
Why isn't the answer, instead of complicated air source/ground source pumps and reverse refrigeration, to create an economy around renewable/nuclear electricity supply and use electricity as directly as possible to heat the liquid that is pumped around the home? With direct electric radiant heating as the secondary source.
Heat Pumps have a "Coefficient of Performance" (COP) greater than 1. So, you put in 1 kJ of electrical energy, you get >1kJ of heat into your home. With direct radiant heating you can't get a COP >1, so less efficient.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Yes the Conservative embrace of soft socialism and wokery have been a disaster.
This Brexit/BritNat iteration of the Tory Party has embraced wokery? That would be a democratic outrage. As soon as all the "trad values" Leavers whose support they rely on become aware of it, it's curtains. Betting volte face - lump on that Lab majority!
I think embracing workery = not banging on about wokery every day.
The fringes of both woke and anti-woke are silly places, most people are somewhere in the middle and fine, whether on the woke or anti-woke "side".
I'm old enough to remember Labour's Green Deal, and then I look at the size, complications and cost of heat pumps and I think...ok, good luck with that.
That was before the cost of gas quadrupled in the space of a couple of months. Alternative heating solutions and/or improved insulation might look rather more interesting to consumers now.
Its a lot of equipment to fit in a standard three bed semi.
Despite what is says if you are going to use the ASHP a lot then the radiators and pipework will need to changed, as pumping 40 degree water through 15mm pipework into a standard radiator will provide very limited heat.
Agree on the lot of equipment.
That looks like someone trying to create an opportunity to keep their technology in the game. It's problematic because 1 - we are pivoting away from gas, 2 - because it is a more complex install which will requite you to eg have 2 annual services not one (gas engineers will love you), 3 - because there are far simpler solutions available.
The stuff about always needing new pipework is for an ASHP is baloney, btw. You perhaps resize your rads (or use a double of the same size). Once you have improved your fabric you do a heat demand model for your house, and a calculation which will tell you what kit you need. Replacing rads is cheap. And then set the appropriate flow rate.
Keeping the same radiators is even cheaper. Which is what happens if you switch from natural gas to hydrogen.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Yes the Conservative embrace of soft socialism and wokery have been a disaster.
This Brexit/BritNat iteration of the Tory Party has embraced wokery? That would be a democratic outrage. As soon as all the "trad values" Leavers whose support they rely on become aware of it, it's curtains. Betting volte face - lump on that Lab majority!
As a fully signed up member of the Wokerati I have to say this is news to me. I will keep an eye out for any cabinet ministers attending our next secret conclave at Polly Toynbee's place in Hampstead.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Yes the Conservative embrace of soft socialism and wokery have been a disaster.
This Brexit/BritNat iteration of the Tory Party has embraced wokery? That would be a democratic outrage. As soon as all the "trad values" Leavers whose support they rely on become aware of it, it's curtains. Betting volte face - lump on that Lab majority!
I think embracing workery = not banging on about wokery every day.
The fringes of both woke and anti-woke are silly places, most people are somewhere in the middle and fine, whether on the woke or anti-woke "side".
I think for some people accepting we need to do something about greenhouse gases - even if its done in a calm and sensible manner - is now "wokery".
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Yes the Conservative embrace of soft socialism and wokery have been a disaster.
This Brexit/BritNat iteration of the Tory Party has embraced wokery? That would be a democratic outrage. As soon as all the "trad values" Leavers whose support they rely on become aware of it, it's curtains. Betting volte face - lump on that Lab majority!
As a fully signed up member of the Wokerati I have to say this is news to me. I will keep an eye out for any cabinet ministers attending our next secret conclave at Polly Toynbee's place in Hampstead.
Which rather suggests IR35 may have more to do with it than Brexit..
Which is exactly what is being said by contractor groups and others.
IR35 reform was right. Companies used it to get people off the books and avoid liabilities without any risk on themselves. JLR had hundreds of its white collar team through agencies but they were treated as permanent employees.
Still it doesn’t chime with the narrative the FBPE head cases want to push.
And it is still be used to get people off books and avoid liabilities. The reforms do nothing at all to put the liabilities on to companies. It is simply extending the zero hours contracts scheme further up the pay-scale.
Hardly surprising when the liability attached to a screwed up IR35 determination is now a bankruptcy event for a small agency - wish I wasn't kidding but that is exactly the issue for one contractor and agency I know of...
I'm old enough to remember Labour's Green Deal, and then I look at the size, complications and cost of heat pumps and I think...ok, good luck with that.
That was before the cost of gas quadrupled in the space of a couple of months. Alternative heating solutions and/or improved insulation might look rather more interesting to consumers now.
Its a lot of equipment to fit in a standard three bed semi.
Despite what is says if you are going to use the ASHP a lot then the radiators and pipework will need to changed, as pumping 40 degree water through 15mm pipework into a standard radiator will provide very limited heat.
Agree on the lot of equipment.
That looks like someone trying to create an opportunity to keep their technology in the game. It's problematic because 1 - we are pivoting away from gas, 2 - because it is a more complex install which will requite you to eg have 2 annual services not one (gas engineers will love you), 3 - because there are far simpler solutions available.
The stuff about always needing new pipework is for an ASHP is baloney, btw. You perhaps resize your rads (or use a double of the same size). Once you have improved your fabric you do a heat demand model for your house, and a calculation which will tell you what kit you need. Replacing rads is cheap. And then set the appropriate flow rate.
Keeping the same radiators is even cheaper. Which is what happens if you switch from natural gas to hydrogen.
Gas explosions are more common than you'd like them to be. Another home was destroyed in Ayr from a gas explosion yesterday. I was woken up by the Police and ordered to evacuate my own home in the week after the London Riots after a lone copycat moron chose to go on an arson campaign and set fire to the gas pipe going into one of my neighbours leading to a fear the entire bloc could go up.
I'm no chemist but from what I understand hydrogen seems even riskier than natural gas to be connected to homes for if things go wrong.
Like the Amazon Go stores this is technology looking for a purpose. There will be endless disputes over products having been "stolen" when the fancy weighing and camera monitoring systems screw up.
There is a lot of heating expertise around on PB. May I ask them a question from a non scientist.
SFAICS home heating mostly involves heating liquid and sending hot liquid around the home with a pump.
The other forms involve radiant heat (gas and electric fires).
Electric immersion heaters have long been part of how to heat water. There are homes entirely electrically heated, though a minority at the moment.
Why isn't the answer, instead of complicated air source/ground source pumps and reverse refrigeration, to create an economy around renewable/nuclear electricity supply and use electricity as directly as possible to heat the liquid that is pumped around the home? With direct electric radiant heating as the secondary source.
Electric immersion heaters are an extremely expensive way to heat you house. Not sure about the efficiencies etc but no one in their right mind currently uses their immersion heater for anything other than short term quick heat if they can avoid it.
That somewhat depends on the energy efficiency quality of your housebuild.
If you use them on Economy 7 it can be OK, and if you have renovated (or built) your house such that it uses a fraction of the heat demand then it can be fine.
I know people who have their central heating as a couple of immersion heaters in the slab, and have total energy bills in the mid-hundreds. Those would be people with detached houses built to a near-passive standard.
And others who are all electric and have similar bills using heat pumps.
A heat pump works because you pull 3 or 4x as much heat from the air / ground / water as it takes to drive the process.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Yes the Conservative embrace of soft socialism and wokery have been a disaster.
This Brexit/BritNat iteration of the Tory Party has embraced wokery? That would be a democratic outrage. As soon as all the "trad values" Leavers whose support they rely on become aware of it, it's curtains. Betting volte face - lump on that Lab majority!
As a fully signed up member of the Wokerati I have to say this is news to me. I will keep an eye out for any cabinet ministers attending our next secret conclave at Polly Toynbee's place in Hampstead.
- Yes. Still, potentially great news. Come one, come all.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Yes the Conservative embrace of soft socialism and wokery have been a disaster.
This Brexit/BritNat iteration of the Tory Party has embraced wokery? That would be a democratic outrage. As soon as all the "trad values" Leavers whose support they rely on become aware of it, it's curtains. Betting volte face - lump on that Lab majority!
As a fully signed up member of the Wokerati I have to say this is news to me. I will keep an eye out for any cabinet ministers attending our next secret conclave at Polly Toynbee's place in Hampstead.
Can you briefly explain for those of us considering it, or indeed seeking to avoid doing so, what 'embracing wokery' might entail ?
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Yes the Conservative embrace of soft socialism and wokery have been a disaster.
This Brexit/BritNat iteration of the Tory Party has embraced wokery? That would be a democratic outrage. As soon as all the "trad values" Leavers whose support they rely on become aware of it, it's curtains. Betting volte face - lump on that Lab majority!
People who voted for the Tories but now think the government is too woke, are not about to help Labour.
I'm old enough to remember Labour's Green Deal, and then I look at the size, complications and cost of heat pumps and I think...ok, good luck with that.
That was before the cost of gas quadrupled in the space of a couple of months. Alternative heating solutions and/or improved insulation might look rather more interesting to consumers now.
Its a lot of equipment to fit in a standard three bed semi.
Despite what is says if you are going to use the ASHP a lot then the radiators and pipework will need to changed, as pumping 40 degree water through 15mm pipework into a standard radiator will provide very limited heat.
Agree on the lot of equipment.
That looks like someone trying to create an opportunity to keep their technology in the game. It's problematic because 1 - we are pivoting away from gas, 2 - because it is a more complex install which will requite you to eg have 2 annual services not one (gas engineers will love you), 3 - because there are far simpler solutions available.
The stuff about always needing new pipework is for an ASHP is baloney, btw. You perhaps resize your rads (or use a double of the same size). Once you have improved your fabric you do a heat demand model for your house, and a calculation which will tell you what kit you need. Replacing rads is cheap. And then set the appropriate flow rate.
Keeping the same radiators is even cheaper. Which is what happens if you switch from natural gas to hydrogen.
Gas explosions are more common than you'd like them to be. Another home was destroyed in Ayr from a gas explosion yesterday. I was woken up by the Police and ordered to evacuate my own home in the week after the London Riots after a lone copycat moron chose to go on an arson campaign and set fire to the gas pipe going into one of my neighbours leading to a fear the entire bloc could go up.
I'm no chemist but from what I understand hydrogen seems even riskier than natural gas to be connected to homes for if things go wrong.
Safety studies have been performed, and more are ongoing. On balance, the risk from hydrogen is roughly the same as that from natural gas. While, for example, there is a greater leakage potential, hydrogen is less likely to achieve a fuel-air mixture in the explosive region. Also, no carbon monoxide deaths from hydrogen.
I'm old enough to remember Labour's Green Deal, and then I look at the size, complications and cost of heat pumps and I think...ok, good luck with that.
That was before the cost of gas quadrupled in the space of a couple of months. Alternative heating solutions and/or improved insulation might look rather more interesting to consumers now.
Its a lot of equipment to fit in a standard three bed semi.
Despite what is says if you are going to use the ASHP a lot then the radiators and pipework will need to changed, as pumping 40 degree water through 15mm pipework into a standard radiator will provide very limited heat.
Agree on the lot of equipment.
That looks like someone trying to create an opportunity to keep their technology in the game. It's problematic because 1 - we are pivoting away from gas, 2 - because it is a more complex install which will requite you to eg have 2 annual services not one (gas engineers will love you), 3 - because there are far simpler solutions available.
The stuff about always needing new pipework is for an ASHP is baloney, btw. You perhaps resize your rads (or use a double of the same size). Once you have improved your fabric you do a heat demand model for your house, and a calculation which will tell you what kit you need. Replacing rads is cheap. And then set the appropriate flow rate.
Keeping the same radiators is even cheaper. Which is what happens if you switch from natural gas to hydrogen.
Gas explosions are more common than you'd like them to be. Another home was destroyed in Ayr from a gas explosion yesterday. I was woken up by the Police and ordered to evacuate my own home in the week after the London Riots after a lone copycat moron chose to go on an arson campaign and set fire to the gas pipe going into one of my neighbours leading to a fear the entire bloc could go up.
I'm no chemist but from what I understand hydrogen seems even riskier than natural gas to be connected to homes for if things go wrong.
Safety studies have been performed, and more are ongoing. On balance, the risk from hydrogen is roughly the same as that from natural gas. While, for example, there is a greater leakage potential, hydrogen is less likely to achieve a fuel-air mixture in the explosive region. Also, no carbon monoxide deaths from hydrogen.
Like the Amazon Go stores this is technology looking for a purpose. There will be endless disputes over products having been "stolen" when the fancy weighing and camera monitoring systems screw up.
Is that true though? Tesco's retail margin is approx 5.5%.
If it is constantly in dispute about what has or has not been paid for it won't make any money and I suspect Amazon would be the same. Apparently there are just 29 Amazon Go stores so clearly we are still in a test phase.
There is a lot of heating expertise around on PB. May I ask them a question from a non scientist.
SFAICS home heating mostly involves heating liquid and sending hot liquid around the home with a pump.
The other forms involve radiant heat (gas and electric fires).
Electric immersion heaters have long been part of how to heat water. There are homes entirely electrically heated, though a minority at the moment.
Why isn't the answer, instead of complicated air source/ground source pumps and reverse refrigeration, to create an economy around renewable/nuclear electricity supply and use electricity as directly as possible to heat the liquid that is pumped around the home? With direct electric radiant heating as the secondary source.
Heat Pumps have a "Coefficient of Performance" (COP) greater than 1. So, you put in 1 kJ of electrical energy, you get >1kJ of heat into your home. With direct radiant heating you can't get a COP >1, so less efficient.
And the same for immersion heaters. COP = 1.
The problem of course is that CoP depends on the ratio of the temperatures between the hot supply and the cold source - the lower this ratio the better - thus the requirement to have the radiators as cold as you can get away with.
Do room thermostats work very well with this, though? I do wonder if having direct heating with fully controllable room thermostats might not be _that_ terrible in comparison.
With a heat pump you can't decide to turn up the heating in one room on a whim because it will take a long time to warm up. Whereas with direct heating you could, and thus you could keep the ambient temperature in rooms you aren't currently using lower.
I'm old enough to remember Labour's Green Deal, and then I look at the size, complications and cost of heat pumps and I think...ok, good luck with that.
That was before the cost of gas quadrupled in the space of a couple of months. Alternative heating solutions and/or improved insulation might look rather more interesting to consumers now.
Its a lot of equipment to fit in a standard three bed semi.
Despite what is says if you are going to use the ASHP a lot then the radiators and pipework will need to changed, as pumping 40 degree water through 15mm pipework into a standard radiator will provide very limited heat.
Agree on the lot of equipment.
That looks like someone trying to create an opportunity to keep their technology in the game. It's problematic because 1 - we are pivoting away from gas, 2 - because it is a more complex install which will requite you to eg have 2 annual services not one (gas engineers will love you), 3 - because there are far simpler solutions available.
The stuff about always needing new pipework is for an ASHP is baloney, btw. You perhaps resize your rads (or use a double of the same size). Once you have improved your fabric you do a heat demand model for your house, and a calculation which will tell you what kit you need. Replacing rads is cheap. And then set the appropriate flow rate.
Keeping the same radiators is even cheaper. Which is what happens if you switch from natural gas to hydrogen.
Gas explosions are more common than you'd like them to be. Another home was destroyed in Ayr from a gas explosion yesterday. I was woken up by the Police and ordered to evacuate my own home in the week after the London Riots after a lone copycat moron chose to go on an arson campaign and set fire to the gas pipe going into one of my neighbours leading to a fear the entire bloc could go up.
I'm no chemist but from what I understand hydrogen seems even riskier than natural gas to be connected to homes for if things go wrong.
Safety studies have been performed, and more are ongoing. On balance, the risk from hydrogen is roughly the same as that from natural gas. While, for example, there is a greater leakage potential, hydrogen is less likely to achieve a fuel-air mixture in the explosive region. Also, no carbon monoxide deaths from hydrogen.
What annual servicing will be required for a hydrogen system?
Graf Zeppelin is not a good precedent
The other reason to replace rads is to keep 20 years of gunge out of your new system. The last time I considered I replaced them, as the cost to have 7 rads done was only slightly more than a Powerflush.
Like the Amazon Go stores this is technology looking for a purpose. There will be endless disputes over products having been "stolen" when the fancy weighing and camera monitoring systems screw up.
Surely any court will just say tough luck on the retailer? Certainly any jury would.
I'm old enough to remember Labour's Green Deal, and then I look at the size, complications and cost of heat pumps and I think...ok, good luck with that.
That was before the cost of gas quadrupled in the space of a couple of months. Alternative heating solutions and/or improved insulation might look rather more interesting to consumers now.
Its a lot of equipment to fit in a standard three bed semi.
Despite what is says if you are going to use the ASHP a lot then the radiators and pipework will need to changed, as pumping 40 degree water through 15mm pipework into a standard radiator will provide very limited heat.
Agree on the lot of equipment.
That looks like someone trying to create an opportunity to keep their technology in the game. It's problematic because 1 - we are pivoting away from gas, 2 - because it is a more complex install which will requite you to eg have 2 annual services not one (gas engineers will love you), 3 - because there are far simpler solutions available.
The stuff about always needing new pipework is for an ASHP is baloney, btw. You perhaps resize your rads (or use a double of the same size). Once you have improved your fabric you do a heat demand model for your house, and a calculation which will tell you what kit you need. Replacing rads is cheap. And then set the appropriate flow rate.
Keeping the same radiators is even cheaper. Which is what happens if you switch from natural gas to hydrogen.
Gas explosions are more common than you'd like them to be. Another home was destroyed in Ayr from a gas explosion yesterday. I was woken up by the Police and ordered to evacuate my own home in the week after the London Riots after a lone copycat moron chose to go on an arson campaign and set fire to the gas pipe going into one of my neighbours leading to a fear the entire bloc could go up.
I'm no chemist but from what I understand hydrogen seems even riskier than natural gas to be connected to homes for if things go wrong.
That would be some explosion. Usually a gas explosion would take out a block, at most.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Yes the Conservative embrace of soft socialism and wokery have been a disaster.
This Brexit/BritNat iteration of the Tory Party has embraced wokery? That would be a democratic outrage. As soon as all the "trad values" Leavers whose support they rely on become aware of it, it's curtains. Betting volte face - lump on that Lab majority!
As a fully signed up member of the Wokerati I have to say this is news to me. I will keep an eye out for any cabinet ministers attending our next secret conclave at Polly Toynbee's place in Hampstead.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
Latest Harris poll for next year's French presidential election.
First round Macron 24% Zemmour 17% Le Pen 15% Bertrand 14% Melenchon 11% Jadot 7% Hidalgo 5%.
Not great for the left. Can they not find someone better than Melenchon?
That's a somewhat curious take. Melenchon is the candidate of the Far Left. As @HYUFD notes, Hidalgo is the candidate of the mainstream left. Jadot of the Greens. But Macron has effectively usurped them. He is now the representative of the Non-Right. And looks likely to win ceteris paribus. IF you put Macron on the left, then those named above sum to left 47% right 46%. And he wins cos he pulls in more Centrist voters. I agree with cookie. Only Bertrand can beat him. But, because the right is so divided he won't get in the top two, unless voters want someone who can win more than someone who makes them feel good about their prejudices. In a way, the opposite to here.
Hidalgo is a no-hoper per the betting. A 3 digit price. Maybe Macron at 1.7 is value. It has a slight feel of the London Mayoral contest to it.
I'm old enough to remember Labour's Green Deal, and then I look at the size, complications and cost of heat pumps and I think...ok, good luck with that.
That was before the cost of gas quadrupled in the space of a couple of months. Alternative heating solutions and/or improved insulation might look rather more interesting to consumers now.
Its a lot of equipment to fit in a standard three bed semi.
Despite what is says if you are going to use the ASHP a lot then the radiators and pipework will need to changed, as pumping 40 degree water through 15mm pipework into a standard radiator will provide very limited heat.
Agree on the lot of equipment.
That looks like someone trying to create an opportunity to keep their technology in the game. It's problematic because 1 - we are pivoting away from gas, 2 - because it is a more complex install which will requite you to eg have 2 annual services not one (gas engineers will love you), 3 - because there are far simpler solutions available.
The stuff about always needing new pipework is for an ASHP is baloney, btw. You perhaps resize your rads (or use a double of the same size). Once you have improved your fabric you do a heat demand model for your house, and a calculation which will tell you what kit you need. Replacing rads is cheap. And then set the appropriate flow rate.
Keeping the same radiators is even cheaper. Which is what happens if you switch from natural gas to hydrogen.
Gas explosions are more common than you'd like them to be. Another home was destroyed in Ayr from a gas explosion yesterday. I was woken up by the Police and ordered to evacuate my own home in the week after the London Riots after a lone copycat moron chose to go on an arson campaign and set fire to the gas pipe going into one of my neighbours leading to a fear the entire bloc could go up.
I'm no chemist but from what I understand hydrogen seems even riskier than natural gas to be connected to homes for if things go wrong.
Many years ago when I was in Edinburgh City Police (1964) we were called in the early hours to a tenement building with a report of a smell of gas.
We traced it to a flat in the block and to our concern the front door had the ends of a blanket projecting into the hall
Expecting a possible suicide we broke in to see an elderly gentleman sitting up in bed reading a paper. We rushed to open the windows and queried if he smelt gas.
He agreed and said he had sealed his front door with a blanket to keep it out !!!
We actually traced it to the meter and he said he had had his gas bill that day and could not afford the gas, so had severed the supply pipe and covered it with polyfilla !!!
Of course the gas board cut the supply to prevent an explosion but it is an incident that was at the same time amusing but also very dangerous
If Tesco think they can make it work, great. Amazon's stores in the US appear to operate fine, but I do wonder if the fact they are rare means fewer attempts to avoid paying.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Yes the Conservative embrace of soft socialism and wokery have been a disaster.
This Brexit/BritNat iteration of the Tory Party has embraced wokery? That would be a democratic outrage. As soon as all the "trad values" Leavers whose support they rely on become aware of it, it's curtains. Betting volte face - lump on that Lab majority!
I think embracing workery = not banging on about wokery every day.
The fringes of both woke and anti-woke are silly places, most people are somewhere in the middle and fine, whether on the woke or anti-woke "side".
I think you are right and it mostly seems to be those on the so called woke side banging in about it and anti woke relentlessly.
I don't understand why Priti Patel isn't more popular.
I don't understand it either. Her views seem pretty much in line with the average Tory voter, and she has a decent bio and can communicate well. I mean, I wouldn't vote for her in a month of Sundays, but I'm not a target voter.
Maybe because these numbers are from the only opinion pollster that finds Boris politicians less popular than Sir Keir? So they’re a bit of an outlier
Not on Patel, Ipsos MORI have her rated very badly, doing even worse than Starmer.
There is a lot of heating expertise around on PB. May I ask them a question from a non scientist.
SFAICS home heating mostly involves heating liquid and sending hot liquid around the home with a pump.
The other forms involve radiant heat (gas and electric fires).
Electric immersion heaters have long been part of how to heat water. There are homes entirely electrically heated, though a minority at the moment.
Why isn't the answer, instead of complicated air source/ground source pumps and reverse refrigeration, to create an economy around renewable/nuclear electricity supply and use electricity as directly as possible to heat the liquid that is pumped around the home? With direct electric radiant heating as the secondary source.
Heat Pumps have a "Coefficient of Performance" (COP) greater than 1. So, you put in 1 kJ of electrical energy, you get >1kJ of heat into your home. With direct radiant heating you can't get a COP >1, so less efficient.
And the same for immersion heaters. COP = 1.
The problem of course is that CoP depends on the ratio of the temperatures between the hot supply and the cold source - the lower this ratio the better - thus the requirement to have the radiators as cold as you can get away with.
Do room thermostats work very well with this, though? I do wonder if having direct heating with fully controllable room thermostats might not be _that_ terrible in comparison.
With a heat pump you can't decide to turn up the heating in one room on a whim because it will take a long time to warm up. Whereas with direct heating you could, and thus you could keep the ambient temperature in rooms you aren't currently using lower.
One change is that as the quality of your house fabric improves, it loses negligible heat in a short interval (eg all heating off goes from 23C to 22C in 24 hours), so the way you run your house changes to a constant temperature and it works as just one or two zones.
So the need for zonal control in either physical areas, or by time periods, goes away. And you save hundreds on time controllers.
Like the Amazon Go stores this is technology looking for a purpose. There will be endless disputes over products having been "stolen" when the fancy weighing and camera monitoring systems screw up.
Is that true though? Tesco's retail margin is approx 5.5%.
If it is constantly in dispute about what has or has not been paid for it won't make any money and I suspect Amazon would be the same. Apparently there are just 29 Amazon Go stores so clearly we are still in a test phase.
People said the same thing about self-checkouts.
They did, and for quite a while they were right... My doubt about these "just walk out stores" remains and they've been trialling the technology for quite a few years now. The retailers can't make automated scales work - how many times do you get "unexpected item in the bagging area" alerts? So how will a whole store of scales work reliably?
The risk to retailers isn't theft. Its that they end up heavily reliant on technology and computers to do basic things that people can do better. It isn't their core business.
I'm not surprised by the data in the Header. Ms Patel is a right wing populist lacking the je ne sais quoi needed to really excel in that space. Home Sec is her peak (imo) and in itself represents considerable career over-achievement by a person of quite limited ability. Speaking of right wing populists, I've just been reading about that Eric Zemmour in France, ex TV shock jock, sort of a French cross between Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson, now a Trumpiste candidate for president. A joke candidate then? I'm afraid not. There are big vibrant rallies in the provinces and a surging enthusiasm amongst folk who are discontented with their lot and blame foreigners and woke liberals for it. Which they are right to do, according to this Zemmour character. He tells them that, oui oui, foreigners and woke liberals are indeed to blame for the lot with which they are discontented. They love him for it, apparently, cheering him to the rafters. They say he’s “not like normal politicians” (natch) and - oh no please spare us - he TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. I do wish some politician would one day be brave enough to tell the sort of people who lap this up how it really is. They'd have my vote, left or right. Anyway, off to betfair to check, and the worst is duly confirmed. He’s clear favourite after Macron. Mon dieu.
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Yes the Conservative embrace of soft socialism and wokery have been a disaster.
This Brexit/BritNat iteration of the Tory Party has embraced wokery? That would be a democratic outrage. As soon as all the "trad values" Leavers whose support they rely on become aware of it, it's curtains. Betting volte face - lump on that Lab majority!
Yes. For instance, it allows diversity officers to remain throughout government instead of sacking them (the ones in the NHS are paid twice as much as junior nurses), tolerates hate crime sentences which value minority lives more highly, clamps down on free speech and puts all kind of ESG crap on companies.
I doubt there would be a Lab majoirty as a party led by Sir Kneel woud be even worse. Hard wokery, not soft wokery.
Talking of Afghanistan, Raab's an absolute cretin, he had blood on his hands, if only he had a fraction of the honour of Lord Carrington.
The British ambassador to Afghanistan warned the Foreign Office repeatedly that the Taliban would achieve a swift victory despite official claims that it came as a surprise, diplomatic cables show.
Sir Laurie Bristow, 57, one of Britain’s most seasoned diplomats, predicted that the Islamists were on the brink of seizing the country and made clear that Kabul was in peril contrary to western leaders’ complacency that the capital was safe.
The telegrams are an embarrassment for the newly promoted deputy prime minister, Dominic Raab. As foreign secretary he went on holiday shortly after Bristow sent a bleak assessment of dangers to Afghanistan and Britain’s friends stuck there.
Westminster sources said that it was almost unbelievable that more was not done in response to the ambassador’s urgent messages.
My house in London has been insulated, has had energy efficient windows put in & UFH. Plus solar panels on every available roof space. It is a typical late Victorian terraced property. Water is direct from the mains so there is no water tank in the attic. There is very little outside wall space - conservatory at the back - and only side wall is all windows, guttering and a water butt. The pipework from the gas boiler couldn't when it was installed go into this side passage because it would be too close to the next property and I understand there are similar rules for the location of heat pumps.
I have yet to understand how a heat pump would fit in to such a property. And if they are not suitable for this sort of housing stock what practical solution, exactly, is being proposed for them?
The problem with an air source heat pump is probably fan noise. There shouldn’t be any health + safety issues.
But just because heat pumps are difficult for some UK housing stock (we’re in much the same situation), doesn’t mean we shouldn’t encourage their use where they make sense.
The answer to that one is to go and listen to some recent ones.
Comments
I have often set out my view that Brexit and Trump were just the soft version of darker things to come. It seems likely that Zemmour will have a decent run. He is no idiot, looks like an intellectual Trump. At one point there was talk of an english translation of his book (the suicide of france) but it seems like it never materialised.
A British Zemmour? Hard to see where it will emerge from. I did think Priti Patel could fill this role, but her moment has passed. Lee Anderson, Ben Bradley?
More likely, the tory acquiescence with the woke under the direction of Carrie Symonds will result in this arriving from outside the current main political parties.
Not good developments, but a fate we seem to be uncontrollably sleepwalking in to.
Even in the coldest day in January or February if you turn up all your radiators to full blast and leave it like that for 24 hours then you'll likely soon have your house feel like a sauna if you do that. If so, then your radiators are already overkill for gas and can likely cope with a marginally lower temperature consistently flowing through it. Have a slightly lower temperature going through your radiator, but turn the radiator up slightly, and you've got the same outcome.
Hence the old joke about why the sun never sets on the British Empire....
(Or at least that’s my guess...)
I have yet to understand how a heat pump would fit in to such a property. And if they are not suitable for this sort of housing stock what practical solution, exactly, is being proposed for them?
https://ggbec.co.uk/air-source-heat-pumps-ashp-5-things-consider/
Note that radiators will have to be 2 to 3 times as large.
https://twitter.com/ons/status/1450386602677657602?s=21
Which rather suggests IR35 may have more to do with it than Brexit..
It is also about catching up and building the domestic base from its current low level.
Apparently we are actually more competitive at present in niche areas such as GSHPs.
UK ASHP manufacturers say they need a stable continued demand for the future.
The UK market for ASHPs this year is 65-70k. In France it is already 250-300k. In Europe overall about 1.3-1.5m .
If they continued to increase their voteshare at the same rate a French rightwing populist could even win in 2027
What I don't want is some north London hand-wringer, saying that the criminals are victims of society, and being soft on crime, being clueless about its impact on Red Wall voters.
I saw Priti as someone who would go places as soon as she entered parliament. I've not been wrong, although #Priti4Leader has yet to come to fruition.
With a sigh of relief.
And that's with demographics that are not just worse than ours, but worse than ours are forecast to be even by 2040-2050.
One of our lawyer contributors can opine as to the exact length of the backlog in the courts, I know it isn't short. And this is nothing new with this government. Lots of guff about "we're going to do this" whilst slashing resources so that even the old standard they want to improve on is impossible.
Up the RA!
https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1450229624097677317?s=20
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1450399755314606080?s=21
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10105425/amp/Conservative-anti-vaxx-commentator-Dennis-Prager-reveals-COVID-purpose-natural-immunity.html?__twitter_impression=true
IR35 reform was right. Companies used it to get people off the books and avoid liabilities without any risk on themselves. JLR had hundreds of its white collar team through agencies but they were treated as permanent employees.
Still it doesn’t chime with the narrative the FBPE head cases want to push.
I'm no expert, but the idea of hybrid (heat pump alongside gas boiler) solutions looks quite interesting, as it's both a great deal cheaper to install, and suitable for less well insulated existing housing stock.
https://hybridheatingeurope.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/hhe_vision-paper_final.pdf
Anyone more knowledgeable care to weigh in ?
But just because heat pumps are difficult for some UK housing stock (we’re in much the same situation), doesn’t mean we shouldn’t encourage their use where they make sense.
As for migration and border security. The issue there is more of taste. We all know border security is important and a home office priority. She just seems to enjoy it a little bit too much.
That said, home secretary always seems to be a very unpopular position. There's precious little upside and a huge amount of risk. You are at the mercy of events. So even a stunningly successful home sec would I suspect never do that well in the ratings.
Disaster came to English via the French désastre in the 16C, from the Italian disastro. This literally means 'ill-starred', with the dis- equivalent to English mis-, + astro meaning star or planet, from Latin astrum and Greek astron.
Other *-aster-* derived words from star meanings are disappointingly obvious - asterisks, asteroids, astronauts, astronomy - all yawn..
But I was quite interested by AstroTurf. It was first used at the Astrodome in Houston, Texas - which was presumably named such as the US space program was HQ'd there (Houston, not the Astrodome!). So AstroTurf is astro- for star, + -turf which is from Proto-Germanic turbz (for turf or lawn), from Proto-Indo-European -derb (for tuft or grass), so star-grass
The pressures they're facing are not remotely comparable to the UK. The UK has nowhere near their level of strictness, nor their level of demographic change.
So yes paying a good salary to working people (a transfer from the non-working to the working) and investing are both things we can do to both improve this country and improve the lot of people who are working in this nation.
Do you have any objections to working people getting a pay rise commensurate with the fact they're working? Do you have any objections to wealth being transferred from non-workers to workers via pay rises?
Eventually when the bluster runs out there won't be anywhere to hide. If the plan is tough sentances and criminals in jail then that needs to be the practice, not saying it whilst presiding over the collapse of an effective criminal justice system.
Over-promise and Under-deliver is always a recipe for political destruction, no matter how popular the promises may be when you make them.
ETA
And catastrophe is from κατά ,katá, “down, against”, + στρέφω stréphō, “I turn”
Despite what is says if you are going to use the ASHP a lot then the radiators and pipework will need to changed, as pumping 40 degree water through 15mm pipework into a standard radiator will provide very limited heat.
As @HYUFD notes, Hidalgo is the candidate of the mainstream left. Jadot of the Greens. But Macron has effectively usurped them. He is now the representative of the Non-Right. And looks likely to win ceteris paribus.
IF you put Macron on the left, then those named above sum to left 47% right 46%. And he wins cos he pulls in more Centrist voters.
I agree with cookie. Only Bertrand can beat him. But, because the right is so divided he won't get in the top two, unless voters want someone who can win more than someone who makes them feel good about their prejudices.
In a way, the opposite to here.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58951984
@andrew_lilico
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6m
Popn of England: 56m
HIT: ~85%? => 48m
Waning period: 2 yrs? => 460k infections/week = 65k/day
Ascertainment rate: ~50%? => ~33k cases/day
So unless waning takes much longer than 2 years, our current level of infections is roughly where we'll be when we reach endemicity (not yet)
SFAICS home heating mostly involves heating liquid and sending hot liquid around the home with a pump.
The other forms involve radiant heat (gas and electric fires).
Electric immersion heaters have long been part of how to heat water. There are homes entirely electrically heated, though a minority at the moment.
Why isn't the answer, instead of complicated air source/ground source pumps and reverse refrigeration, to create an economy around renewable/nuclear electricity supply and use electricity as directly as possible to heat the liquid that is pumped around the home? With direct electric radiant heating as the secondary source.
Necessity is the Mother of invention and of course this is driven by technology and competition
That looks like someone trying to create an opportunity to keep their technology in the game. It's problematic because 1 - we are pivoting away from gas, 2 - because it is a more complex install which will requite you to eg have 2 annual services not one (gas engineers will love you), 3 - because there are far simpler solutions available.
The stuff about always needing new pipework is for an ASHP is baloney, btw. You perhaps resize your rads (or use a double of the same size). Once you have improved your fabric you do a heat demand model for your house, and a calculation which will tell you what kit you need. Replacing rads is cheap. And then set the appropriate flow rate.
The prices look quite fancy, but with a £5k grant, perhaps not ridiculous.
The fringes of both woke and anti-woke are silly places, most people are somewhere in the middle and fine, whether on the woke or anti-woke "side".
I'm no chemist but from what I understand hydrogen seems even riskier than natural gas to be connected to homes for if things go wrong.
If you use them on Economy 7 it can be OK, and if you have renovated (or built) your house such that it uses a fraction of the heat demand then it can be fine.
I know people who have their central heating as a couple of immersion heaters in the slab, and have total energy bills in the mid-hundreds. Those would be people with detached houses built to a near-passive standard.
And others who are all electric and have similar bills using heat pumps.
A heat pump works because you pull 3 or 4x as much heat from the air / ground / water as it takes to drive the process.
But the GOLDEN rule is always 'Fabric First'.
So, who’s the next Farage?
If it is constantly in dispute about what has or has not been paid for it won't make any money and I suspect Amazon would be the same. Apparently there are just 29 Amazon Go stores so clearly we are still in a test phase.
People said the same thing about self-checkouts.
https://twitter.com/BBCScotlandNews/status/1450406415428956162?s=20
Do room thermostats work very well with this, though? I do wonder if having direct heating with fully controllable room thermostats might not be _that_ terrible in comparison.
With a heat pump you can't decide to turn up the heating in one room on a whim because it will take a long time to warm up. Whereas with direct heating you could, and thus you could keep the ambient temperature in rooms you aren't currently using lower.
Graf Zeppelin is not a good precedent
The other reason to replace rads is to keep 20 years of gunge out of your new system. The last time I considered I replaced them, as the cost to have 7 rads done was only slightly more than a Powerflush.
We traced it to a flat in the block and to our concern the front door had the ends of a blanket projecting into the hall
Expecting a possible suicide we broke in to see an elderly gentleman sitting up in bed reading a paper. We rushed to open the windows and queried if he smelt gas.
He agreed and said he had sealed his front door with a blanket to keep it out !!!
We actually traced it to the meter and he said he had had his gas bill that day and could not afford the gas, so had severed the supply pipe and covered it with polyfilla !!!
Of course the gas board cut the supply to prevent an explosion but it is an incident that was at the same time amusing but also very dangerous
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2021-08/Ipsos MORI July 2021 Political Pulse_020821_PUBLIC_0.pdf
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/favourability-towards-boris-johnson-falls-lowest-level-october
On the withdrawal from Afghanistan she did as badly as Raab.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/less-quarter-think-boris-johnson-and-uk-government-have-handled-situation-afghanistan-well
Cannot find it at the moment, but YouGov has the voters rating Patel badly as well.
So the need for zonal control in either physical areas, or by time periods, goes away. And you save hundreds on time controllers.
The risk to retailers isn't theft. Its that they end up heavily reliant on technology and computers to do basic things that people can do better. It isn't their core business.
I doubt there would be a Lab majoirty as a party led by Sir Kneel woud be even worse. Hard wokery, not soft wokery.
Have a good day.
(I may come back to those absurd 42mm central heating pipes later)
The British ambassador to Afghanistan warned the Foreign Office repeatedly that the Taliban would achieve a swift victory despite official claims that it came as a surprise, diplomatic cables show.
Sir Laurie Bristow, 57, one of Britain’s most seasoned diplomats, predicted that the Islamists were on the brink of seizing the country and made clear that Kabul was in peril contrary to western leaders’ complacency that the capital was safe.
The telegrams are an embarrassment for the newly promoted deputy prime minister, Dominic Raab. As foreign secretary he went on holiday shortly after Bristow sent a bleak assessment of dangers to Afghanistan and Britain’s friends stuck there.
Westminster sources said that it was almost unbelievable that more was not done in response to the ambassador’s urgent messages.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dominic-raab-ignored-ambassadors-dire-warnings-on-afghanistan-lktrvf0n9