politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » REMAIN lead drops to lowest level yet in ComRes phone poll
Comments
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No they don't. No point pissing in the wind doing that. They simply need to convince people there's the same or greater economic risk to committing to the EU. That won't be hard. Fear can cut both ways as Remain are discovering.TheScreamingEagles said:Leave need to change these numbers if they want to win. People won't vote to make the economy worse
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/712688388785192960
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Just rewound that, that last ball was a wide0
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"El Bakraoui was arrested in Gaziantep in southern Turkey close to the Syrian border last summer."
What did Dupont and Dupond think he was doing there...on his summer holidays?0 -
I see Trump has said his list of potential SCOTUS nominations he is releasing next is being drawn up by the Heritage Foundation.
I can just smell the centerism there. Much pivot, such bipartisanship.0 -
It is just weird. I can understand phone polls showing a bigger lead for Remain than Online polls for the reason we have discussed before but the relative movements are generally the same in both. Why a phone poll should show certainty to vote helping Remain when all other polls show it helping Leave is really strange.logical_song said:
How do you interpret this?Sean_F said:
I believe they aren't being asked about certainty to vote. The pollster is making an assumption that patterns of turnout will match the patterns of turnout at the general election.logical_song said:
Not this one:Sean_F said:
All polls that survey certainty to vote show certainty to vote is higher with Leave.chestnut said:It all depends on who you believe.
Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.
ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.
"In this new poll 48% back Remain, while 41% say they would vote for Leave if there was a referendum tomorrow. The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account: if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU."
"The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account:"0 -
Except the reforms are being done to improve the lives and survival of patients. This is a strike over Saturday pay rates not patient safety.MarkSenior said:
Only the Conservatives would put things in their manifesto and then implement them in such a way that threatens the lives of many patients .Philip_Thompson said:
Not every party holds their own manifesto in such contempt as the Lib Dems held their own while in government.MarkSenior said:
YESPhilip_Thompson said:
Hunt is following through on a manifesto promise that was very high profile during the general election, is that something to be sacked over?Roger said:
For the sake of the referendum Cameron should make one last u-turn and sack Hunt; He's made a complete arse of himself and he's going to make the government very unpopular just at the wrong timeScott_P said:Labour have nailed their colours to the mast
@UKLabour: This action is avoidable and the Gov. now has four weeks to avert this walkout - @heidi_mp on #JuniorDoctorsStrike https://t.co/Q5Uikg3wxA
Of course, the BMA has four weeks to avert this walkout if they wanted...0 -
So you pro government lackeys keep trying to tell the public but they are not being fooled and do not believe you .Philip_Thompson said:
Except the reforms are being done to improve the lives and survival of patients. This is a strike over Saturday pay rates not patient safety.MarkSenior said:
Only the Conservatives would put things in their manifesto and then implement them in such a way that threatens the lives of many patients .Philip_Thompson said:
Not every party holds their own manifesto in such contempt as the Lib Dems held their own while in government.MarkSenior said:
YESPhilip_Thompson said:
Hunt is following through on a manifesto promise that was very high profile during the general election, is that something to be sacked over?Roger said:
For the sake of the referendum Cameron should make one last u-turn and sack Hunt; He's made a complete arse of himself and he's going to make the government very unpopular just at the wrong timeScott_P said:Labour have nailed their colours to the mast
@UKLabour: This action is avoidable and the Gov. now has four weeks to avert this walkout - @heidi_mp on #JuniorDoctorsStrike https://t.co/Q5Uikg3wxA
Of course, the BMA has four weeks to avert this walkout if they wanted...0 -
Most likely as there was no selections forMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Moses, but is that just an online voodoo poll?
"don't know"
" Sorry I will be aboard"
or
" Look why don't you just go and ask someone who actually does give a shit"
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Polls consistently show ABC1 voters (who turnout to vote) support Remain. Why is it that strange then that demographic turnouts could help Remain?Richard_Tyndall said:
It is just weird. I can understand phone polls showing a bigger lead for Remain than Online polls for the reason we have discussed before but the relative movements are generally the same in both. Why a phone poll should show certainty to vote helping Remain when all other polls show it helping Leave is really strange.logical_song said:
How do you interpret this?Sean_F said:
I believe they aren't being asked about certainty to vote. The pollster is making an assumption that patterns of turnout will match the patterns of turnout at the general election.logical_song said:
Not this one:Sean_F said:
All polls that survey certainty to vote show certainty to vote is higher with Leave.chestnut said:It all depends on who you believe.
Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.
ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.
"In this new poll 48% back Remain, while 41% say they would vote for Leave if there was a referendum tomorrow. The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account: if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU."
"The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account:"0 -
I'm not a lackey, I just believe in what the government is saying. It is something I voted for because I believed in it and have seen nothing in the jobsworths whining about having to work less than one in every four Saturdays for no extra pay to convince me otherwise.MarkSenior said:
So you pro government lackeys keep trying to tell the public but they are not being fooled and do not believe you .Philip_Thompson said:
Except the reforms are being done to improve the lives and survival of patients. This is a strike over Saturday pay rates not patient safety.MarkSenior said:
Only the Conservatives would put things in their manifesto and then implement them in such a way that threatens the lives of many patients .Philip_Thompson said:
Not every party holds their own manifesto in such contempt as the Lib Dems held their own while in government.MarkSenior said:
YESPhilip_Thompson said:
Hunt is following through on a manifesto promise that was very high profile during the general election, is that something to be sacked over?Roger said:
For the sake of the referendum Cameron should make one last u-turn and sack Hunt; He's made a complete arse of himself and he's going to make the government very unpopular just at the wrong timeScott_P said:Labour have nailed their colours to the mast
@UKLabour: This action is avoidable and the Gov. now has four weeks to avert this walkout - @heidi_mp on #JuniorDoctorsStrike https://t.co/Q5Uikg3wxA
Of course, the BMA has four weeks to avert this walkout if they wanted...
The fact that I work every Saturday (except when on holiday) and have done for over a decade probably makes me less sympathetic.0 -
You come across as such a luvvie, - next you’ll be hanging out with Emma Thompson & Co.SeanT said:Wrote a blog for W H Smiths in which I confess I work two hours a day. Ooops.
http://blog.whsmith.co.uk/work-s-k-tremayne/ 0 -
Mr. T, being entirely serious, do you not get bored?0
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Wrapping himself in dead fish for a charity photo shoot...SimonStClare said:
You come across as such a luvvie, - next you’ll be hanging out with Emma Thompson & Co.SeanT said:Wrote a blog for W H Smiths in which I confess I work two hours a day. Ooops.
http://blog.whsmith.co.uk/work-s-k-tremayne/0 -
I didn't know WH Smiths had cafes, or anywhere where you could sit down.SeanT said:Wrote a blog for W H Smiths in which I confess I work two hours a day. Ooops.
http://blog.whsmith.co.uk/work-s-k-tremayne/0 -
Comres have weighted DE down from 238 to 56 in the sample.
Their assumption is AB is four times as many voters.
Ipsos had the turnout difference as 75:57 at the GE.
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Hassane was studying medicine at a university in Sudan, earning him the nickname "The Surgeon
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35884915
I am sure it was the cheap fees that attracted him...0 -
The competition to be the biggest political shambles in this country is amazing but every time UKIP manages to power through to win... even ahead of Odious & Osborne and Corbyn.0
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Because it runs counter to what is seen in all other polls. In those the likelihood to vote filter improves things for Leave.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls consistently show ABC1 voters (who turnout to vote) support Remain. Why is it that strange then that demographic turnouts could help Remain?Richard_Tyndall said:
It is just weird. I can understand phone polls showing a bigger lead for Remain than Online polls for the reason we have discussed before but the relative movements are generally the same in both. Why a phone poll should show certainty to vote helping Remain when all other polls show it helping Leave is really strange.logical_song said:
How do you interpret this?Sean_F said:
I believe they aren't being asked about certainty to vote. The pollster is making an assumption that patterns of turnout will match the patterns of turnout at the general election.logical_song said:
Not this one:Sean_F said:
All polls that survey certainty to vote show certainty to vote is higher with Leave.chestnut said:It all depends on who you believe.
Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.
ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.
"In this new poll 48% back Remain, while 41% say they would vote for Leave if there was a referendum tomorrow. The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account: if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU."
"The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account:"0 -
There's a difference between being highly motivated to vote and being likely to vote. Assuming similar patterns to a General Election might be a good way to divine the latter.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because it runs counter to what is seen in all other polls. In those the likelihood to vote filter improves things for Leave.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls consistently show ABC1 voters (who turnout to vote) support Remain. Why is it that strange then that demographic turnouts could help Remain?Richard_Tyndall said:
It is just weird. I can understand phone polls showing a bigger lead for Remain than Online polls for the reason we have discussed before but the relative movements are generally the same in both. Why a phone poll should show certainty to vote helping Remain when all other polls show it helping Leave is really strange.logical_song said:
How do you interpret this?Sean_F said:
I believe they aren't being asked about certainty to vote. The pollster is making an assumption that patterns of turnout will match the patterns of turnout at the general election.logical_song said:
Not this one:Sean_F said:
All polls that survey certainty to vote show certainty to vote is higher with Leave.chestnut said:It all depends on who you believe.
Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.
ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.
"In this new poll 48% back Remain, while 41% say they would vote for Leave if there was a referendum tomorrow. The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account: if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU."
"The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account:"0 -
eg the latest Ipsos Mori poll.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because it runs counter to what is seen in all other polls. In those the likelihood to vote filter improves things for Leave.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls consistently show ABC1 voters (who turnout to vote) support Remain. Why is it that strange then that demographic turnouts could help Remain?Richard_Tyndall said:
It is just weird. I can understand phone polls showing a bigger lead for Remain than Online polls for the reason we have discussed before but the relative movements are generally the same in both. Why a phone poll should show certainty to vote helping Remain when all other polls show it helping Leave is really strange.logical_song said:
How do you interpret this?Sean_F said:
I believe they aren't being asked about certainty to vote. The pollster is making an assumption that patterns of turnout will match the patterns of turnout at the general election.logical_song said:
Not this one:Sean_F said:
All polls that survey certainty to vote show certainty to vote is higher with Leave.chestnut said:It all depends on who you believe.
Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.
ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.
"In this new poll 48% back Remain, while 41% say they would vote for Leave if there was a referendum tomorrow. The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account: if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU."
"The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account:"
Remain leads by 32% among those certain not to vote. The lead drops to 7% among those certain to vote.0 -
But again this is what is measured by the other polls and they show completely the reverse of what is being reported by Comres.williamglenn said:
There's a difference between being highly motivated to vote and being likely to vote. Assuming similar patterns to a General Election might be a good way to divine the latter.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because it runs counter to what is seen in all other polls. In those the likelihood to vote filter improves things for Leave.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls consistently show ABC1 voters (who turnout to vote) support Remain. Why is it that strange then that demographic turnouts could help Remain?Richard_Tyndall said:
It is just weird. I can understand phone polls showing a bigger lead for Remain than Online polls for the reason we have discussed before but the relative movements are generally the same in both. Why a phone poll should show certainty to vote helping Remain when all other polls show it helping Leave is really strange.logical_song said:
How do you interpret this?Sean_F said:
I believe they aren't being asked about certainty to vote. The pollster is making an assumption that patterns of turnout will match the patterns of turnout at the general election.logical_song said:
Not this one:Sean_F said:
All polls that survey certainty to vote show certainty to vote is higher with Leave.chestnut said:It all depends on who you believe.
Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.
ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.
"In this new poll 48% back Remain, while 41% say they would vote for Leave if there was a referendum tomorrow. The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account: if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU."
"The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account:"0 -
Is it though? Or are they measuring how "certain to vote" people report they are rather than weighting to GE turnout?Richard_Tyndall said:
But again this is what is measured by the other polls and they show completely the reverse of what is being reported by Comres.williamglenn said:
There's a difference between being highly motivated to vote and being likely to vote. Assuming similar patterns to a General Election might be a good way to divine the latter.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because it runs counter to what is seen in all other polls. In those the likelihood to vote filter improves things for Leave.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls consistently show ABC1 voters (who turnout to vote) support Remain. Why is it that strange then that demographic turnouts could help Remain?Richard_Tyndall said:
It is just weird. I can understand phone polls showing a bigger lead for Remain than Online polls for the reason we have discussed before but the relative movements are generally the same in both. Why a phone poll should show certainty to vote helping Remain when all other polls show it helping Leave is really strange.logical_song said:
How do you interpret this?Sean_F said:
I believe they aren't being asked about certainty to vote. The pollster is making an assumption that patterns of turnout will match the patterns of turnout at the general election.logical_song said:
Not this one:Sean_F said:
All polls that survey certainty to vote show certainty to vote is higher with Leave.chestnut said:It all depends on who you believe.
Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.
ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.
"In this new poll 48% back Remain, while 41% say they would vote for Leave if there was a referendum tomorrow. The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account: if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU."
"The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account:"
Incidentally wouldn't it make sense for all polls to be weighted to GE turnout?0 -
The question is what methodology are they using to measure it. If they're simply asking people how likely they are to vote the answers possible say more about how much they care about the question than about their true likelihood to turn up at a polling station on the day.Richard_Tyndall said:
But again this is what is measured by the other polls and they show completely the reverse of what is being reported by Comres.williamglenn said:
There's a difference between being highly motivated to vote and being likely to vote. Assuming similar patterns to a General Election might be a good way to divine the latter.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because it runs counter to what is seen in all other polls. In those the likelihood to vote filter improves things for Leave.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls consistently show ABC1 voters (who turnout to vote) support Remain. Why is it that strange then that demographic turnouts could help Remain?Richard_Tyndall said:
It is just weird. I can understand phone polls showing a bigger lead for Remain than Online polls for the reason we have discussed before but the relative movements are generally the same in both. Why a phone poll should show certainty to vote helping Remain when all other polls show it helping Leave is really strange.logical_song said:
How do you interpret this?Sean_F said:
I believe they aren't being asked about certainty to vote. The pollster is making an assumption that patterns of turnout will match the patterns of turnout at the general election.logical_song said:
Not this one:Sean_F said:
All polls that survey certainty to vote show certainty to vote is higher with Leave.chestnut said:It all depends on who you believe.
Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.
ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.
"In this new poll 48% back Remain, while 41% say they would vote for Leave if there was a referendum tomorrow. The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account: if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU."
"The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account:"0 -
I can't decide whether the recent atrocities in Paris and Belgium etc. will affect the referendum vote.
On the one hand one might argue that we should stay out in insular isolation & protect ourselves by building a figurative Trumpian wall.
Or, on the other hand, one might reckon that we could best fight these jerks by cohering with the rest of Europe.0 -
Com Res are working it out differently. Pollsters that weight by likelihood to vote generally ask people to rate their likelihood of voting from 0 to 10/10. They may then apply a higher weighting to voters further up the scale, or cut off voters that give a likelihood of less than 5/10, or (in the case of Ipsos Mori for voting intention, cut off everyone below 9/10). As far as I can tell, Com Res simply apply the social class-based voting patterns of the GE to their headline figure.Richard_Tyndall said:
But again this is what is measured by the other polls and they show completely the reverse of what is being reported by Comres.williamglenn said:
There's a difference between being highly motivated to vote and being likely to vote. Assuming similar patterns to a General Election might be a good way to divine the latter.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because it runs counter to what is seen in all other polls. In those the likelihood to vote filter improves things for Leave.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls consistently show ABC1 voters (who turnout to vote) support Remain. Why is it that strange then that demographic turnouts could help Remain?Richard_Tyndall said:
It is just weird. I can understand phone polls showing a bigger lead for Remain than Online polls for the reason we have discussed before but the relative movements are generally the same in both. Why a phone poll should show certainty to vote helping Remain when all other polls show it helping Leave is really strange.logical_song said:
How do you interpret this?Sean_F said:
I believe they aren't being asked about certainty to vote. The pollster is making an assumption that patterns of turnout will match the patterns of turnout at the general election.logical_song said:
Not this one:Sean_F said:
All polls that survey certainty to vote show certainty to vote is higher with Leave.chestnut said:It all depends on who you believe.
Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.
ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.
"In this new poll 48% back Remain, while 41% say they would vote for Leave if there was a referendum tomorrow. The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account: if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU."
"The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account:"0 -
The more someone cares about an issue, the more likely they are to vote about it.williamglenn said:
The question is what methodology are they using to measure it. If they're simply asking people how likely they are to vote the answers possible say more about how much they care about the question than about their true likelihood to turn up at a polling station on the day.Richard_Tyndall said:
But again this is what is measured by the other polls and they show completely the reverse of what is being reported by Comres.williamglenn said:
There's a difference between being highly motivated to vote and being likely to vote. Assuming similar patterns to a General Election might be a good way to divine the latter.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because it runs counter to what is seen in all other polls. In those the likelihood to vote filter improves things for Leave.Philip_Thompson said:
Polls consistently show ABC1 voters (who turnout to vote) support Remain. Why is it that strange then that demographic turnouts could help Remain?Richard_Tyndall said:
It is just weird. I can understand phone polls showing a bigger lead for Remain than Online polls for the reason we have discussed before but the relative movements are generally the same in both. Why a phone poll should show certainty to vote helping Remain when all other polls show it helping Leave is really strange.logical_song said:
How do you interpret this?Sean_F said:
I believe they aren't being asked about certainty to vote. The pollster is making an assumption that patterns of turnout will match the patterns of turnout at the general election.logical_song said:
Not this one:Sean_F said:
All polls that survey certainty to vote show certainty to vote is higher with Leave.chestnut said:It all depends on who you believe.
Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.
ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.
"In this new poll 48% back Remain, while 41% say they would vote for Leave if there was a referendum tomorrow. The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account: if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU."
"The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account:"0 -
One doubts Europe will actually do anything about it. How long has Belgium been a known hotbed of extremism?Toms said:I can't decide whether the recent atrocities in Paris and Belgium etc. will affect the referendum vote.
On the one hand one might argue that we should stay out in insular isolation & protect ourselves by building a figurative Trumpian wall.
Or, on the other hand, one might reckon that we could best fight these jerks by cohering with the rest of Europe.0 -
Sorry Morris Dancer.
Looks like F1 will be exclusively live on Sky from 2019
Sky Sports to show every F1 race live from 2019 until 2024
Every Grand Prix live until 2024; All 21 races live on Sky Sports F1 this season
http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12430/10215419/sky-sports-to-show-every-f1-race-live-from-2019-until-20240 -
Wow, Turkey deported one of the bombers to Belgium after he tried to cross the border and told the Belgians that he was a terrorist. How was he able to walk free?0
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I suppose how they now react will be a test of the EU's degree of anarchyRobD said:
One doubts Europe will actually do anything about it. How long has Belgium been a known hotbed of extremism?Toms said:I can't decide whether the recent atrocities in Paris and Belgium etc. will affect the referendum vote.
On the one hand one might argue that we should stay out in insular isolation & protect ourselves by building a figurative Trumpian wall.
Or, on the other hand, one might reckon that we could best fight these jerks by cohering with the rest of Europe.0 -
The fact that the polls have shown a trend of LEAVE improving compared to REMAIN, even with weightings that have not been "fixed after GE2015" is very significant.
We are coming to the end of the period when REMAIN faced a divided LEAVE set of groups. A period when it should have gained a significant lead using the rigged way that Cameron etc had manipulated the rules of the Commision and Govt. A period when Cameron and the Govt have used all their advantages and then watched as LEAVE slowly improved. A period when the innate political selfishness of Farage has hampered LEAVE. That this has also happened before the Brussels atrocities and before the major spate of drownings in the Med does not auger well for the chances of REMAIN.0 -
But it's a referendum, not a G.E., where the likelihood to vote is affected by location. Where the incumbent has a large majority fewer people bother to turn out compared to a close race.Sean_F said:
Com Res are working it out differently. Pollsters that weight by likelihood to vote generally ask people to rate their likelihood of voting from 0 to 10/10. They may then apply a higher weighting to voters further up the scale, or cut off voters that give a likelihood of less than 5/10, or (in the case of Ipsos Mori for voting intention, cut off everyone below 9/10). As far as I can tell, Com Res simply apply the social class-based voting patterns of the GE to their headline figure.
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Mr. Eagles, sounds like a continuation of the status quo rather than a change. Not pleased, but there we are.
Incidentally, F1, according to the GPDA piece, has lost about 30m viewers recently, which (I think) is about 10%. That's been partly attributed to the shift to pay TV.0 -
The Belgians are useless at security. They allowed the country's number one criminal to escape from custody for example.MaxPB said:Wow, Turkey deported one of the bombers to Belgium after he tried to cross the border and told the Belgians that he was a terrorist. How was he able to walk free?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_Dutroux#Parliamentary_investigation_and_escape_from_custody0 -
If Sky offer Sky F1 a la carté on NowTV I'll be happy since it will get rid of C4's awful coverage. I would pay £120 for the 9 months.TheScreamingEagles said:Sorry Morris Dancer.
Looks like F1 will be exclusively live on Sky from 2019
Sky Sports to show every F1 race live from 2019 until 2024
Every Grand Prix live until 2024; All 21 races live on Sky Sports F1 this season
http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12430/10215419/sky-sports-to-show-every-f1-race-live-from-2019-until-20240 -
Mr. Max, only saw bits of the Channel 4 coverage (beyond the race). I like Webber and Coulthard.
Not sure adverts during the highlights are wise, though.0 -
Worse coverage than ITV IMO.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Max, only saw bits of the Channel 4 coverage (beyond the race). I like Webber and Coulthard.
Not sure adverts during the highlights are wise, though.0 -
Sadly notMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, sounds like a continuation of the status quo rather than a change. Not pleased, but there we are.
Incidentally, F1, according to the GPDA piece, has lost about 30m viewers recently, which (I think) is about 10%. That's been partly attributed to the shift to pay TV.
Sky has won exclusive rights to show Formula One racing from 2019, the first time that the vast majority of races will only be available to pay-TV subscribers.
Sky already broadcasts all 21 grands prix live, but Channel 4 also has rights to show 10 races a year after striking a three-year deal thought to be worth as much as £35m a year. Channel 4 had picked up the rights after the BBC exited its own deal with the sport’s governing body early due to budget cuts.
The new Sky deal, which runs until 2024, will see Sky broadcast the British Grand Prix on a free-to-air Sky channel available on services such as YouView, and at least two other races on its yet to be launched Mix channel, which will be available to all Sky subscribers even if they do not take any of its sports channels. However, the remainder of the races each year will only be available to customers who pay for Sky Sports.
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/mar/23/sky-buys-exclusive-rights-to-all-formula-one?CMP=share_btn_tw0 -
Mr. Tyndall, after the last GE, I am at a loss as to why anyone should pay more than cursory attention to the polls. We saw then two groups of polling companies detecting two mutually contradictory trends, which strangely led all companies to more or less the same place, and at least one company refusing to release at least one poll because it did not agree with what they thought it should say (it just happened to be much more accurate in terms of the result than their own narrative).Richard_Tyndall said:
It is just weird. I can understand phone polls showing a bigger lead for Remain than Online polls for the reason we have discussed before but the relative movements are generally the same in both. Why a phone poll should show certainty to vote helping Remain when all other polls show it helping Leave is really strange.
It may be tantamount to treason on here to say it but I find it difficult to avoid the conclusion that the polling companies make it up as they go along. Whether they consciously "fiddle" the figures I don't know but there certainly seems to be prima facie evidence to that effect.
Furthermore, there can, I think, be no doubt that some people, if not the polling companies themselves, seek to use the polls to mould public opinion rather than using them as toll which reflects it. This when, combined with the genuine and justified concerns about polling companies basic honesty, is pernicious to public discourse.
In short, plenty of people, including some "senior" people on here, made asses of themselves by believing the polling companies actually said something useful. One might as well pay as much attention to the blokes up the pub or a voodoo pole in the Telegraph as anything from YouGuv et al.0 -
F1: hmm. My F1 Twitter persons are suggesting it's exclusive to Sky from 2019.
......
One does not wish to besmirch one's reputation for politeness by sullying this post with an honest appraisal of that.0 -
Having been left on a bed in A&E without seeing a consultant for 9 hours one night/morning I for one do want to see a better provision of doctors 24/7. That was after an hour in the ambulance outside A&E. But it would interfere with doctors social life.MarkSenior said:
So you pro government lackeys keep trying to tell the public but they are not being fooled and do not believe you .Philip_Thompson said:
Except the reforms are being done to improve the lives and survival of patients. This is a strike over Saturday pay rates not patient safety.MarkSenior said:
Only the Conservatives would put things in their manifesto and then implement them in such a way that threatens the lives of many patients .Philip_Thompson said:
Not every party holds their own manifesto in such contempt as the Lib Dems held their own while in government.MarkSenior said:
YESPhilip_Thompson said:
Hunt is following through on a manifesto promise that was very high profile during the general election, is that something to be sacked over?Roger said:
For the sake of the referendum Cameron should make one last u-turn and sack Hunt; He's made a complete arse of himself and he's going to make the government very unpopular just at the wrong timeScott_P said:Labour have nailed their colours to the mast
@UKLabour: This action is avoidable and the Gov. now has four weeks to avert this walkout - @heidi_mp on #JuniorDoctorsStrike https://t.co/Q5Uikg3wxA
Of course, the BMA has four weeks to avert this walkout if they wanted...
0 -
But people are generally quite poor predictors of their own behaviour. I'd be more inclined to believe results achieved by the latter method, negative as they are for my own side.Sean_F said:
Com Res are working it out differently. Pollsters that weight by likelihood to vote generally ask people to rate their likelihood of voting from 0 to 10/10. They may then apply a higher weighting to voters further up the scale, or cut off voters that give a likelihood of less than 5/10, or (in the case of Ipsos Mori for voting intention, cut off everyone below 9/10). As far as I can tell, Com Res simply apply the social class-based voting patterns of the GE to their headline figure.0 -
That is undoubtedly the government's intention which makes you wonder how Jeremy Hunt has ballsed it up. We can safely assume the doctors are also interested in helping patients. There does seem to be a legitimate doubt over the root cause of the weekend excess (and therefore how to address it) but the aim is the same so how did Hunt manage to alienate so many doctors and turn this into an industrial dispute?Philip_Thompson said:
Except the reforms are being done to improve the lives and survival of patients. This is a strike over Saturday pay rates not patient safety.MarkSenior said:
Only the Conservatives would put things in their manifesto and then implement them in such a way that threatens the lives of many patients .Philip_Thompson said:
Not every party holds their own manifesto in such contempt as the Lib Dems held their own while in government.MarkSenior said:
YESPhilip_Thompson said:
Hunt is following through on a manifesto promise that was very high profile during the general election, is that something to be sacked over?Roger said:
For the sake of the referendum Cameron should make one last u-turn and sack Hunt; He's made a complete arse of himself and he's going to make the government very unpopular just at the wrong timeScott_P said:Labour have nailed their colours to the mast
@UKLabour: This action is avoidable and the Gov. now has four weeks to avert this walkout - @heidi_mp on #JuniorDoctorsStrike https://t.co/Q5Uikg3wxA
Of course, the BMA has four weeks to avert this walkout if they wanted...0 -
When you think they can't be any more incompetent...they are like some hollywood spoof..what's in the wardrobe....oh nothing...i am sure i heard something...nope definitely nothing in there...MaxPB said:Wow, Turkey deported one of the bombers to Belgium after he tried to cross the border and told the Belgians that he was a terrorist. How was he able to walk free?
Are you a terrorist...no...are you sure, the Turkish say you are...no..oh ok on your way...0 -
Do you fly? Try telling the passengers there's a VERY slight risk the pilot might have a heart attack. Does anyone want to leave the plane? I think you might find yourself the only passengerPhilip_Thompson said:
I'm perfectly OK with a slight risk. A slight risk is completely acceptable for anything more than a slight return.MarkSenior said:
High/Slight Risk 69%MarkHopkins said:TheScreamingEagles said:Leave need to change these numbers if they want to win. People won't vote to make the economy worse
twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/712688388785192960
High risk: 30%
Slight to No risk: 65%
Leave seem OK for this.
Hardly/No Risk 26%
Leave seems holed below the waterline .0 -
I thought the big hoo-ha was because they would be working less hours?TCPoliticalBetting said:
Having been left on a bed in A&E without seeing a consultant for 9 hours one night/morning I for one do want to see a better provision of doctors 24/7. That was after an hour in the ambulance outside A&E. But it would interfere with doctors social life.MarkSenior said:
So you pro government lackeys keep trying to tell the public but they are not being fooled and do not believe you .Philip_Thompson said:
Except the reforms are being done to improve the lives and survival of patients. This is a strike over Saturday pay rates not patient safety.MarkSenior said:
Only the Conservatives would put things in their manifesto and then implement them in such a way that threatens the lives of many patients .Philip_Thompson said:
Not every party holds their own manifesto in such contempt as the Lib Dems held their own while in government.MarkSenior said:
YESPhilip_Thompson said:
Hunt is following through on a manifesto promise that was very high profile during the general election, is that something to be sacked over?Roger said:
For the sake of the referendum Cameron should make one last u-turn and sack Hunt; He's made a complete arse of himself and he's going to make the government very unpopular just at the wrong timeScott_P said:Labour have nailed their colours to the mast
@UKLabour: This action is avoidable and the Gov. now has four weeks to avert this walkout - @heidi_mp on #JuniorDoctorsStrike https://t.co/Q5Uikg3wxA
Of course, the BMA has four weeks to avert this walkout if they wanted...
0 -
But there is always a slight risk the pilot might have a heart attack.Roger said:
Do you fly? Try telling the passengers there's a VERY slight risk the pilot might have a heart attack. Does anyone want to leave the plane? I think you might find yourself the only passengerPhilip_Thompson said:
I'm perfectly OK with a slight risk. A slight risk is completely acceptable for anything more than a slight return.MarkSenior said:
High/Slight Risk 69%MarkHopkins said:TheScreamingEagles said:Leave need to change these numbers if they want to win. People won't vote to make the economy worse
twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/712688388785192960
High risk: 30%
Slight to No risk: 65%
Leave seem OK for this.
Hardly/No Risk 26%
Leave seems holed below the waterline .0 -
An interesting note on the predictability of the GOP race.
With states that Romney won in 2012, excluding home states like Massachusets and the mormon ones of Utah and Idaho, the victor in 2016 on average gets 0.6 points less and never less than 8 points lower or 9 points higher than what Romney got in 2012.
With states won by Santorum in 2012, the 2016 victor gets on average 1 point more, with a margin of 14 points more to 8 points less.
In Arizona that played out to perfection, with Trump getting exactly the 47% that Romney got and Cruz getting 25 compared to 27% that Santorum got.
So far Trump in the same states that voted so far in 2012 has got 37% to 38% that Romney got, and Cruz has 27% to 29% that Santorum got.
That means that Wisconsin should be predictable, whoever wins there will get around the 44% that Romney got in 2012.0 -
They would be working less or same hours per doctor but spread differently 24/7 once hospitals rescheduled all the related services.RobD said:
I thought the big hoo-ha was because they would be working less hours?TCPoliticalBetting said:
Having been left on a bed in A&E without seeing a consultant for 9 hours one night/morning I for one do want to see a better provision of doctors 24/7. That was after an hour in the ambulance outside A&E. But it would interfere with doctors social life.MarkSenior said:
So you pro government lackeys keep trying to tell the public but they are not being fooled and do not believe you .Philip_Thompson said:
Except the reforms are being done to improve the lives and survival of patients. This is a strike over Saturday pay rates not patient safety.MarkSenior said:
Only the Conservatives would put things in their manifesto and then implement them in such a way that threatens the lives of many patients .Philip_Thompson said:
Not every party holds their own manifesto in such contempt as the Lib Dems held their own while in government.MarkSenior said:
YESPhilip_Thompson said:
Hunt is following through on a manifesto promise that was very high profile during the general election, is that something to be sacked over?Roger said:
For the sake of the referendum Cameron should make one last u-turn and sack Hunt; He's made a complete arse of himself and he's going to make the government very unpopular just at the wrong timeScott_P said:Labour have nailed their colours to the mast
@UKLabour: This action is avoidable and the Gov. now has four weeks to avert this walkout - @heidi_mp on #JuniorDoctorsStrike https://t.co/Q5Uikg3wxA
Of course, the BMA has four weeks to avert this walkout if they wanted...
0 -
Well, it was speculated that a number of pledges were made only so they could be negotiated away in coalition.Philip_Thompson said:
Not every party holds their own manifesto in such contempt as the Lib Dems held their own while in government.MarkSenior said:
YESPhilip_Thompson said:
Hunt is following through on a manifesto promise that was very high profile during the general election, is that something to be sacked over?Roger said:
For the sake of the referendum Cameron should make one last u-turn and sack Hunt; He's made a complete arse of himself and he's going to make the government very unpopular just at the wrong timeScott_P said:Labour have nailed their colours to the mast
@UKLabour: This action is avoidable and the Gov. now has four weeks to avert this walkout - @heidi_mp on #JuniorDoctorsStrike https://t.co/Q5Uikg3wxA
Of course, the BMA has four weeks to avert this walkout if they wanted...0 -
I agree. The communication on this from Govt has been handled appallingly badly. That said the doctors denial of the bleeding obvious illustrates how desparate some are to stick with a way of working that suits their lives rather than the quality of patient care.DecrepitJohnL said:
That is undoubtedly the government's intention which makes you wonder how Jeremy Hunt has ballsed it up. We can safely assume the doctors are also interested in helping patients. There does seem to be a legitimate doubt over the root cause of the weekend excess (and therefore how to address it) but the aim is the same so how did Hunt manage to alienate so many doctors and turn this into an industrial dispute?Philip_Thompson said:
Except the reforms are being done to improve the lives and survival of patients. This is a strike over Saturday pay rates not patient safety.MarkSenior said:
Only the Conservatives would put things in their manifesto and then implement them in such a way that threatens the lives of many patients .Philip_Thompson said:
Not every party holds their own manifesto in such contempt as the Lib Dems held their own while in government.MarkSenior said:
YESPhilip_Thompson said:
Hunt is following through on a manifesto promise that was very high profile during the general election, is that something to be sacked over?Roger said:
For the sake of the referendum Cameron should make one last u-turn and sack Hunt; He's made a complete arse of himself and he's going to make the government very unpopular just at the wrong timeScott_P said:Labour have nailed their colours to the mast
@UKLabour: This action is avoidable and the Gov. now has four weeks to avert this walkout - @heidi_mp on #JuniorDoctorsStrike https://t.co/Q5Uikg3wxA
Of course, the BMA has four weeks to avert this walkout if they wanted...
0 -
Higher risk the pilot is trollied....AndyJS said:
But there is always a slight risk the pilot might have a heart attack.Roger said:
Do you fly? Try telling the passengers there's a VERY slight risk the pilot might have a heart attack. Does anyone want to leave the plane? I think you might find yourself the only passengerPhilip_Thompson said:
I'm perfectly OK with a slight risk. A slight risk is completely acceptable for anything more than a slight return.MarkSenior said:
High/Slight Risk 69%MarkHopkins said:TheScreamingEagles said:Leave need to change these numbers if they want to win. People won't vote to make the economy worse
twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/712688388785192960
High risk: 30%
Slight to No risk: 65%
Leave seem OK for this.
Hardly/No Risk 26%
Leave seems holed below the waterline .
However, dare to tell people another terrorist attack is highly likely and they must leave their holiday....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3156382/Anger-British-tourists-returning-UK-Tunisia.html0 -
And the Home Secretary has the audacity to claim that we will be more vulnerable to terrorism without the Belgians helping us.FrancisUrquhart said:
When you think they can't be any more incompetent...they are like some hollywood spoof..what's in the wardrobe....oh nothing...i am sure i heard something...nope definitely nothing in there...MaxPB said:Wow, Turkey deported one of the bombers to Belgium after he tried to cross the border and told the Belgians that he was a terrorist. How was he able to walk free?
Are you a terrorist...no...are you sure, the Turkish say you are...no..oh ok on your way...0 -
Perhaps - and this is speculating after looking at the figures, so a biased guess - people who are really keen are most for Leave, but there are a lot of middle-class people who are lukewarm but vaguely pro-Remain. They show up as non-voters in polls that only take "certain to vote", but they show up as likely to vote in ComRes 'cos they're middle-class.Sean_F said:
eg the latest Ipsos Mori poll.
Remain leads by 32% among those certain not to vote. The lead drops to 7% among those certain to vote.0 -
The Belgians are probably still arguing which language to file the report in...Speedy said:
And the Home Secretary has the audacity to claim that we will be more vulnerable to terrorism without the Belgians helping us.FrancisUrquhart said:
When you think they can't be any more incompetent...they are like some hollywood spoof..what's in the wardrobe....oh nothing...i am sure i heard something...nope definitely nothing in there...MaxPB said:Wow, Turkey deported one of the bombers to Belgium after he tried to cross the border and told the Belgians that he was a terrorist. How was he able to walk free?
Are you a terrorist...no...are you sure, the Turkish say you are...no..oh ok on your way...0 -
She probably means the converse. We will be more vulnerable to terrorism without us helping the Belgians.Speedy said:
And the Home Secretary has the audacity to claim that we will be more vulnerable to terrorism without the Belgians helping us.FrancisUrquhart said:
When you think they can't be any more incompetent...they are like some hollywood spoof..what's in the wardrobe....oh nothing...i am sure i heard something...nope definitely nothing in there...MaxPB said:Wow, Turkey deported one of the bombers to Belgium after he tried to cross the border and told the Belgians that he was a terrorist. How was he able to walk free?
Are you a terrorist...no...are you sure, the Turkish say you are...no..oh ok on your way...0 -
Both major parties in Germany now suffering severely in the polls, with the AfD consistently on 12ish% and the Greens and Liberals also doing well. A common factor is that the major parties are in government and everyone else is not.0
-
re: Polls
Ipsos last one had AB and DE with the same number of voters.
ICM have 25% more AB voters than DE
Comres have four times the amount of AB voters.
It really does test credulity to see such wild variation.
I've noticed that Comres have also dispensed with 2015 vote breakdowns and current VI in their tables.0 -
Merkel should have considered standing down after 10 years in office. Blair got that right.NickPalmer said:Both major parties in Germany now suffering severely in the polls, with the AfD consistently on 12ish% and the Greens and Liberals also doing well. A common factor is that the major parties are in government and everyone else is not.
0 -
Should our leaders take the view of the editor whose journalists were threatened during the Algerian war? "They can't frighten me. You stay right there."FrancisUrquhart said:Higher risk the pilot is trollied....
However, dare to tell people another terrorist attack is highly likely and they must leave their holiday....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3156382/Anger-British-tourists-returning-UK-Tunisia.html0 -
More likely they are complaining to "community elders" in Molenbeek about how their side broke the truce.FrancisUrquhart said:
The Belgians are probably still arguing which language to file the report in...Speedy said:
And the Home Secretary has the audacity to claim that we will be more vulnerable to terrorism without the Belgians helping us.FrancisUrquhart said:
When you think they can't be any more incompetent...they are like some hollywood spoof..what's in the wardrobe....oh nothing...i am sure i heard something...nope definitely nothing in there...MaxPB said:Wow, Turkey deported one of the bombers to Belgium after he tried to cross the border and told the Belgians that he was a terrorist. How was he able to walk free?
Are you a terrorist...no...are you sure, the Turkish say you are...no..oh ok on your way...
I actually wish that wasn't serious.0 -
Channel 4 News reporter: "Belgians have a cultural aversion to collecting data on people". Interesting.0
-
I know....I saw this crap yesterday with this bizarre, "but we held our end of the bargain up, why have you attacked us" attitude...They need to hear that Snake poem Trump keeps pumping out.MaxPB said:
More likely they are complaining to "community elders" in Molenbeek about how their side broke the truce.FrancisUrquhart said:
The Belgians are probably still arguing which language to file the report in...Speedy said:
And the Home Secretary has the audacity to claim that we will be more vulnerable to terrorism without the Belgians helping us.FrancisUrquhart said:
When you think they can't be any more incompetent...they are like some hollywood spoof..what's in the wardrobe....oh nothing...i am sure i heard something...nope definitely nothing in there...MaxPB said:Wow, Turkey deported one of the bombers to Belgium after he tried to cross the border and told the Belgians that he was a terrorist. How was he able to walk free?
Are you a terrorist...no...are you sure, the Turkish say you are...no..oh ok on your way...
I actually wish that wasn't serious.0 -
What sort of country has to have masked police when they search buildings?0
-
Yes, I noted yesterday that the main parties are down from 67% in the election to about 55-57% today. It will make the next grand coalition much less stable if the results are similar.NickPalmer said:Both major parties in Germany now suffering severely in the polls, with the AfD consistently on 12ish% and the Greens and Liberals also doing well. A common factor is that the major parties are in government and everyone else is not.
0 -
People voted for Blair and Brown they screwed the economy over way more than BrExit will. The voters thought it was time for a chance, they might feel the same about the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
69% Say there will be a risk to the economy because of Brexit, whereas 26% disagree.FrancisUrquhart said:
That seems a very high % for slight given the Armageddon style warnings so far. As for the no risk at all category, I presume they would also answer the same to "chances of a rainy day in December"...TheScreamingEagles said:
People won't vote to damage the economy.
Leave need to change these numbers0 -
They probably aren't Belgian or the police..The Beligan security services are so crap, the French equivalent of the SAS are doing most of the work.AndyJS said:What sort of country has to have masked police when they search buildings?
0 -
Maybe it is time to reclassify Drs.DecrepitJohnL said:
That is undoubtedly the government's intention which makes you wonder how Jeremy Hunt has ballsed it up. We can safely assume the doctors are also interested in helping patients. There does seem to be a legitimate doubt over the root cause of the weekend excess (and therefore how to address it) but the aim is the same so how did Hunt manage to alienate so many doctors and turn this into an industrial dispute?Philip_Thompson said:
Except the reforms are being done to improve the lives and survival of patients. This is a strike over Saturday pay rates not patient safety.MarkSenior said:
Only the Conservatives would put things in their manifesto and then implement them in such a way that threatens the lives of many patients .Philip_Thompson said:
Not every party holds their own manifesto in such contempt as the Lib Dems held their own while in government.MarkSenior said:
YESPhilip_Thompson said:
Hunt is following through on a manifesto promise that was very high profile during the general election, is that something to be sacked over?Roger said:
For the sake of the referendum Cameron should make one last u-turn and sack Hunt; He's made a complete arse of himself and he's going to make the government very unpopular just at the wrong timeScott_P said:Labour have nailed their colours to the mast
@UKLabour: This action is avoidable and the Gov. now has four weeks to avert this walkout - @heidi_mp on #JuniorDoctorsStrike https://t.co/Q5Uikg3wxA
Of course, the BMA has four weeks to avert this walkout if they wanted...
Should it be vocation rather than a profession?0 -
Head desk thud...for the second time today...I was poking fun at the idiots who were moaning to the Daily Mai,williamglenn said:
Should our leaders take the view of the editor whose journalists were threatened during the Algerian war? "They can't frighten me. You stay right there."FrancisUrquhart said:Higher risk the pilot is trollied....
However, dare to tell people another terrorist attack is highly likely and they must leave their holiday....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3156382/Anger-British-tourists-returning-UK-Tunisia.html
How dare they ruin my holiday...
What the terrorists?...
No the bar steward Tory government0 -
This Belgian on C4 news is in full head in the sand mode.0
-
I wasn't countering you. Just couldn't resist the opportunity to post the quote.FrancisUrquhart said:
Head desk thud...for the second time today...I was poking fun at the idiots who were moaning to the Daily Mai,williamglenn said:
Should our leaders take the view of the editor whose journalists were threatened during the Algerian war? "They can't frighten me. You stay right there."FrancisUrquhart said:Higher risk the pilot is trollied....
However, dare to tell people another terrorist attack is highly likely and they must leave their holiday....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3156382/Anger-British-tourists-returning-UK-Tunisia.html
0 -
Mr. Max, what's he/she saying?0
-
Re the bomber deported back to Belgium:-
Three issues arise:-
1. Could he be charged with an offence in Belgium, based on what the Turkish authorities said? This would be the ideal i.e. when someone disappears off to the Syrian border and is caught and deported, they are charged, convicted and locked up. But who knows whether the Belgians have such an offence or whether the evidence was strong enough.
2. If 1 doesn't work, then the only option is to put him under surveillance - but that is very resource expensive. Given the numbers of probable targets, I doubt that the Belgian authorities have the resources to do this - even if they had the will.
3. If 1 is not available and 2 is not done then you have what appears to have happened here - a militant is left to get on with it apparently unhindered.
The more you have communities which seem to be outside the effective control of the state, as Moelenbeek (and parts of the Paris banlieues) the easier it will be for those who wish the state harm to flourish unhindered. It is essential that the state has full control of all parts of its territory and of all those in its territory. This is not something new needed in response to Islamist or any other sort of terrorism. This is basic stuff which any medieval king would have understood.
There has been an abrogation of sovereignty by countries whereby they have, to all intents and purposes, abandoned parts of their territory to potentially hostile forces. That is in part because there has been - and continues to be - a culture of denial about the fact that these are hostile forces or breeding grounds for them. Too many in the governing classes have tried to make the facts match what they would like to be true. They - or rather the innocent civilians - are now being mugged by reality, a reality which has been all too evident for those with eyes to see ever since we saw book burning and assassination attempts at the behest of a foreign religious/political leader decades ago.
It is grimly ironic that for all the talk of loss of sovereignty in relation to the EU it is this loss of sovereignty which is far more damaging and which needs to be reversed. The longer it is left, the tougher it will have to be. If it is not done at all, the future will be grim.0 -
Same old rubbish, first victims are Muslims etc...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Max, what's he/she saying?
0 -
Mr. Max, warning against Islamophobia?0
-
As always, Cyclefree, you hit the nail right on the head.Cyclefree said:Re the bomber deported back to Belgium:-
Three issues arise:-
1. Could he be charged with an offence in Belgium, based on what the Turkish authorities said? This would be the ideal i.e. when someone disappears off to the Syrian border and is caught and deported, they are charged, convicted and locked up. But who knows whether the Belgians have such an offence or whether the evidence was strong enough.
2. If 1 doesn't work, then the only option is to put him under surveillance - but that is very resource expensive. Given the numbers of probable targets, I doubt that the Belgian authorities have the resources to do this - even if they had the will.
3. If 1 is not available and 2 is not done then you have what appears to have happened here - a militant is left to get on with it apparently unhindered.
The more you have communities which seem to be outside the effective control of the state, as Moelenbeek (and parts of the Paris banlieues) the easier it will be for those who wish the state harm to flourish unhindered. It is essential that the state has full control of all parts of its territory and of all those in its territory. This is not something new needed in response to Islamist or any other sort of terrorism. This is basic stuff which any medieval king would have understood.
There has been an abrogation of sovereignty by countries whereby they have, to all intents and purposes, abandoned parts of their territory to potentially hostile forces. That is in part because their has been - and continues to be - a culture of denial about the fact that these are hostile forces or breeding grounds for them. Too many in the governing classes have tried to make the facts match what they would like to be true. They - or rather the innocent civilians - are now being mugged by reality, a reality which has been all too evident for those with eyes to see ever since we saw book burning and assassination attempts at the behest of a foreign religious/political leader decades ago.
It is grimly ironic that for all the talk of loss of sovereignty in relation to the EU it is this loss of sovereignty which is far more damaging and which needs to be reversed. The longer it is left, the tougher it will have to be. If it is not done at all, the future will be grim.
Right: back to exile for me.0 -
Yes but usually there are at least 2 pilots on board.AndyJS said:
But there is always a slight risk the pilot might have a heart attack.Roger said:
Do you fly? Try telling the passengers there's a VERY slight risk the pilot might have a heart attack. Does anyone want to leave the plane? I think you might find yourself the only passengerPhilip_Thompson said:
I'm perfectly OK with a slight risk. A slight risk is completely acceptable for anything more than a slight return.MarkSenior said:
High/Slight Risk 69%MarkHopkins said:TheScreamingEagles said:Leave need to change these numbers if they want to win. People won't vote to make the economy worse
twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/712688388785192960
High risk: 30%
Slight to No risk: 65%
Leave seem OK for this.
Hardly/No Risk 26%
Leave seems holed below the waterline .0 -
Ummm: I think in '97 and '01, the Labour Party led on 'economic competence' in the polls. (As inconceivable as that sounds given subsequent events.)Indigo said:
People voted for Blair and Brown they screwed the economy over way more than BrExit will. The voters thought it was time for a chance, they might feel the same about the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
69% Say there will be a risk to the economy because of Brexit, whereas 26% disagree.FrancisUrquhart said:
That seems a very high % for slight given the Armageddon style warnings so far. As for the no risk at all category, I presume they would also answer the same to "chances of a rainy day in December"...TheScreamingEagles said:
People won't vote to damage the economy.
Leave need to change these numbers0 -
Basically. When confronted with the information that the police let the terrorist walk free after being warned by the Turks he started rambling about the FSB and Russia. Complete and utter see you next Tuesday.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Max, warning against Islamophobia?
0 -
One extra point....this wasn't a guy who had never had a criminal record and claiming to being on his hols in Turkey...so perhaps maybe he just a misguided youth tempted by idea of IS...He was career criminal who was known to use weapons.Cyclefree said:Re the bomber deported back to Belgium:-
Three issues arise:-
1. Could he be charged with an offence in Belgium, based on what the Turkish authorities said? This would be the ideal i.e. when someone disappears off to the Syrian border and is caught and deported, they are charged, convicted and locked up. But who knows whether the Belgians have such an offence or whether the evidence was strong enough.
2. If 1 doesn't work, then the only option is to put him under surveillance - but that is very resource expensive. Given the numbers of probable targets, I doubt that the Belgian authorities have the resources to do this - even if they had the will.
3. If 1 is not available and 2 is not done then you have what appears to have happened here - a militant is left to get on with it apparently unhindered.
The more you have communities which seem to be outside the effective control of the state, as Moelenbeek (and parts of the Paris banlieues) the easier it will be for those who wish the state harm to flourish unhindered. It is essential that the state has full control of all parts of its territory and of all those in its territory. This is not something new needed in response to Islamist or any other sort of terrorism. This is basic stuff which any medieval king would have understood.
There has been an abrogation of sovereignty by countries whereby they have, to all intents and purposes, abandoned parts of their territory to potentially hostile forces. That is in part because there has been - and continues to be - a culture of denial about the fact that these are hostile forces or breeding grounds for them. Too many in the governing classes have tried to make the facts match what they would like to be true. They - or rather the innocent civilians - are now being mugged by reality, a reality which has been all too evident for those with eyes to see ever since we saw book burning and assassination attempts at the behest of a foreign religious/political leader decades ago.
It is grimly ironic that for all the talk of loss of sovereignty in relation to the EU it is this loss of sovereignty which is far more damaging and which needs to be reversed. The longer it is left, the tougher it will have to be. If it is not done at all, the future will be grim.0 -
THIS NOTHING TO DO WITH ISLAMMaxPB said:
Same old rubbish, first victims are Muslims etc...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Max, what's he/she saying?
THINK OF THE BACKLASH
.....rinse and repeat...0 -
That is so dumb a view that she deserves it to go on a leaflet. Except that it would be expoiting the dead in Brussels. Which of course she is doing.....Speedy said:
And the Home Secretary has the audacity to claim that we will be more vulnerable to terrorism without the Belgians helping us.FrancisUrquhart said:
When you think they can't be any more incompetent...they are like some hollywood spoof..what's in the wardrobe....oh nothing...i am sure i heard something...nope definitely nothing in there...MaxPB said:Wow, Turkey deported one of the bombers to Belgium after he tried to cross the border and told the Belgians that he was a terrorist. How was he able to walk free?
Are you a terrorist...no...are you sure, the Turkish say you are...no..oh ok on your way...
0 -
Mr. Max, never heard the 'see you next Tuesday' term before.
We've got our share of such people in this country. While Belgian security seems almost designed to have loopholes, the UK is not as tough as it should be (we've got a de facto blasphemy law against depictions of Mohammed).
Edited extra bit: Mr. T, whilst clearly not good news, that's also a bit obvious.
Merkel's the political equivalent of Ratner.0 -
But Belgium will be ok because they have a done a deal with the local Islamists....SeanT said:Fantastic
The Associated Press @AP 5m5 minutes ago
BREAKING: The Islamic State group has trained at least 400 fighters to target Europe in deadly waves, the AP has learned.
The guy in the Telegraph today saying ISIS were basically done for might want to do a rewrite of his article.0 -
As always, I've never been more thankful for a Tory PM who shut the doors to unrestricted migrant movements into the country.SeanT said:Fantastic
The Associated Press @AP 5m5 minutes ago
BREAKING: The Islamic State group has trained at least 400 fighters to target Europe in deadly waves, the AP has learned.0 -
You can add the reaction by some to the Trojan Horse plot....even after the reports...Morris_Dancer said:We've got our share of such people in this country. While Belgian security seems almost designed to have loopholes, the UK is not as tough as it should be (we've got a de facto blasphemy law against depictions of Mohammed).
Nope no really problem, just some bad teaching...0 -
It is difficult to conclude anything other than Labour are an Antisemitic party when you see stuff like the below:
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/7127007249796956180 -
Is that true? There are high turnouts in the true blue shires, the lower turnout in safe Labour seats probably reflects the demographics rather than the size of the majority.geoffw said:
But it's a referendum, not a G.E., where the likelihood to vote is affected by location. Where the incumbent has a large majority fewer people bother to turn out compared to a close race.Sean_F said:
Com Res are working it out differently. Pollsters that weight by likelihood to vote generally ask people to rate their likelihood of voting from 0 to 10/10. They may then apply a higher weighting to voters further up the scale, or cut off voters that give a likelihood of less than 5/10, or (in the case of Ipsos Mori for voting intention, cut off everyone below 9/10). As far as I can tell, Com Res simply apply the social class-based voting patterns of the GE to their headline figure.0 -
Ryan, 2020?0
-
Obama in November 2015, "ISIS are contained"FrancisUrquhart said:
But Belgium will be ok because they have a done a deal with the local Islamists....SeanT said:Fantastic
The Associated Press @AP 5m5 minutes ago
BREAKING: The Islamic State group has trained at least 400 fighters to target Europe in deadly waves, the AP has learned.
The guy in the Telegraph today saying ISIS were basically done for might want to do a rewrite of his article.
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/11/13/politics/obama-isis-contained-decapitated-abc-news/
An empty suit.0 -
This is, by far, the best analysis I have read on the subject. You are a f-ing legend. Please stand for office.Cyclefree said:Re the bomber deported back to Belgium:-
Three issues arise:-
1. Could he be charged with an offence in Belgium, based on what the Turkish authorities said? This would be the ideal i.e. when someone disappears off to the Syrian border and is caught and deported, they are charged, convicted and locked up. But who knows whether the Belgians have such an offence or whether the evidence was strong enough.
2. If 1 doesn't work, then the only option is to put him under surveillance - but that is very resource expensive. Given the numbers of probable targets, I doubt that the Belgian authorities have the resources to do this - even if they had the will.
3. If 1 is not available and 2 is not done then you have what appears to have happened here - a militant is left to get on with it apparently unhindered.
The more you have communities which seem to be outside the effective control of the state, as Moelenbeek (and parts of the Paris banlieues) the easier it will be for those who wish the state harm to flourish unhindered. It is essential that the state has full control of all parts of its territory and of all those in its territory. This is not something new needed in response to Islamist or any other sort of terrorism. This is basic stuff which any medieval king would have understood.
There has been an abrogation of sovereignty by countries whereby they have, to all intents and purposes, abandoned parts of their territory to potentially hostile forces. That is in part because there has been - and continues to be - a culture of denial about the fact that these are hostile forces or breeding grounds for them. Too many in the governing classes have tried to make the facts match what they would like to be true. They - or rather the innocent civilians - are now being mugged by reality, a reality which has been all too evident for those with eyes to see ever since we saw book burning and assassination attempts at the behest of a foreign religious/political leader decades ago.
It is grimly ironic that for all the talk of loss of sovereignty in relation to the EU it is this loss of sovereignty which is far more damaging and which needs to be reversed. The longer it is left, the tougher it will have to be. If it is not done at all, the future will be grim.0 -
Though the brothers in Belgium were not migrants though, were they?MaxPB said:
As always, I've never been more thankful for a Tory PM who shut the doors to unrestricted migrant movements into the country.SeanT said:Fantastic
The Associated Press @AP 5m5 minutes ago
BREAKING: The Islamic State group has trained at least 400 fighters to target Europe in deadly waves, the AP has learned.
Neither were the 7/7 bombers, the Woolwich killers etc.
0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yeJ-iv3MOToSeanT said:Fantastic
The Associated Press @AP 5m5 minutes ago
BREAKING: The Islamic State group has trained at least 400 fighters to target Europe in deadly waves, the AP has learned.0 -
Yo...you are interrupting his viewing of the baseball....he is made a statement to ESPN*...Now watch this pitch.....MaxPB said:
Obama in November 2015, "ISIS are contained"FrancisUrquhart said:
But Belgium will be ok because they have a done a deal with the local Islamists....SeanT said:Fantastic
The Associated Press @AP 5m5 minutes ago
BREAKING: The Islamic State group has trained at least 400 fighters to target Europe in deadly waves, the AP has learned.
The guy in the Telegraph today saying ISIS were basically done for might want to do a rewrite of his article.
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/11/13/politics/obama-isis-contained-decapitated-abc-news/
An empty suit.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/x3p3i8/picture67636107/ALTERNATES/FREE_320/0409 Cuba Obama baseball Da
* For those that don't know, ESPN is the US main sports network...yes he really did make an initial statement about Belgium via them.0 -
Joseph Kennedy 2024 !rottenborough said:Ryan, 2020?
0 -
Great. He can fight the primary with Chelsea!Pulpstar said:
Joseph Kennedy 2024 !rottenborough said:Ryan, 2020?
0 -
F1: reading that Todt (head of the FIA, though given he seems to spend most of his time hiding you could be forgiven for not knowing that) wants the new qualifying system for Q1 and Q2 but the old one for Q3.
Also, some suggestions that the move to pay TV, exclusively, was the straw that broke the camel's back as far as drivers are concerned.
Anyway, I've got to be off.0 -
I can see that being a contest actually.rottenborough said:
Great. He can fight the primary with Chelsea!Pulpstar said:
Joseph Kennedy 2024 !rottenborough said:Ryan, 2020?
0 -
Yes but why should we have an open border for 400 more ISIS fighters to cross into this country.foxinsoxuk said:
Though the brothers in Belgium were not migrants though, were they?MaxPB said:
As always, I've never been more thankful for a Tory PM who shut the doors to unrestricted migrant movements into the country.SeanT said:Fantastic
The Associated Press @AP 5m5 minutes ago
BREAKING: The Islamic State group has trained at least 400 fighters to target Europe in deadly waves, the AP has learned.
Neither were the 7/7 bombers, the Woolwich killers etc.0
